← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Bitcoin Leads Crypto Drop… And A 2026 AI Tech Outlook 12/1/25
00:43:32
Bitcoin feeling the Thanksgiving hangover as the crypto space sells off. The tokens leading the losses, and how the Bitcoin treasury companies are feeling the pain as well. Plus Why the AI tech rally can keep rocking in the new year. Where one top tech analyst sees the most opportunity, as investors digest the latest AI power partnership. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:01]
Tim Seymour
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- [00:31]
Capella University Announcer
Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu.
- [01:03]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Crypto getting crushed. Bitcoin returning from the holiday weekend in a day is hitting its lowest level since April and the crypto proxies aren't being spared. The reasons behind the move and where one crypto investor sees the space heading next plus New Year, same AI rally. Why? One top tech analyst sees a sector surge continuing into 2026, where he sees the most opportunities as investors digest yet another AI power deal. And later, blackjack and the Big Apple. The casinos coming for New York City, heavy metal musing silver and gold continue to surge and auto stock stocks speed higher. How the traders are navigating the space as GM hits a fresh record high. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Steve Grasso and Guy Adami. Shares of Wal Mart closing at a record high in the XRT retail etf ticking higher after a strong Black Friday start to the holiday shopping season. Much more on the Never say die consumers coming up. First we turn to bitcoin and a fresh battering for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin this morning falling to its lowest level since April and now tracking first negative year since 2022. And the crypto slide is hitting a host of names in the digital space very hard. Check out shares of Strategy, one of the company's most leveraged to bitcoin. Those shares tumbling 36% over the past four weeks. Over the last six months, the stock has been cut half. The CEO in a podcast has said that they could Sell bitcoin as a last resort measure. But that really spooked people. If you see the champion of this bitcoin strategy, say yes, we might actually sell bitcoin and by the way, we're going to have a dollar reserve to pay dividends. That is fearful. That strikes fear.
- [02:47]
Steve Grasso
It's problematic and I think that's last resort. But the market's going to challenge both strategy and bitcoin holders. And I'll say this, you know now that the CME Fed watch tool think it's up to 90% certainty of getting a Fed rate cut next week. I guess it is. You would have thought that have been supportive of bitcoin. It's not. So bitcoin is falling with a potentially dovish Fed, a lot of other things going on and bitcoin can't get of its own way. I think it's sort of a risk off thing. And I juxtapose that with the U.S. bond market that had probably one of its worst days in a while, up 7 or 8 basis points today I think is problematic. And you throw Japan in there as well. And I think it's all part of the same narrative, I mean unwind of.
- [03:27]
Melissa Lee
The carry trade that fears come back.
- [03:29]
Tim Seymour
Well, that's exactly where I think guy's going and where I would take a little bit further because there is some sense that the carry trade by definition is levered. Okay, you borrow in one currency and you invest in other stuff, but it's all on borrowed money. What microstrategy and some of these other countries call them different levered bitcoin plays are certainly showing that there is a lot of leverage in that. The questions I'm getting from a lot of people around me seemingly over the last, over the Thanksgiving table, but certainly over the last couple of days is something along the lines of can crypto derail the entire market? And it's an interesting concept here. And again where we're going here is I'm not sure, no, I don't think it could, I don't think it's big enough, etc. Etc. But when we're talking about where we're starting to see real risk assets come under some pressure and yes, Japanese bond yields are a very big deal and you do have a BOJ that's making it clear that they're going to have to raise rates. And yes, by the way, Japan kind of feels like the US in late 21 where suddenly there was this transitory inflation that there wasn't. That means also that there's going to be more pressure on the yen to weaken, which could actually at first be very good for some of these trades. I know this is starting to get complicated. I'll just simply say it's not just bitcoin, but I'm not worried about the leverage in the bitcoin market being something that's going to take down the broader market. Absolutely not.
- [04:48]
Melissa Lee
But in terms of the impact on the crypto trade, it's something that can still be a weight. I mean, back in early October, what we saw was a massive deleveraging. Right. It was like $19 billion leveraged bets unwinding. There's more leverage to be taken out in bitcoin. And so that's just another pressure on this trade here.
- [05:04]
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, I was surprised that some of the things that would be most closely related didn't move that much today. So looking at something like Coinbase, which is down a lot in the last three or so months, was down today. Hood, also down a lot for the peak, but still very much off the bottom. I mean, I'm long bitcoin. I have been long for a really long time. I actually thought it's out. I don't know. It hit 82, 83. Recent couple of days. I don't know, 10 days. They're all blending together. I sort of thought that was the bottom. I don't know. Also, you have to sort of potential front running in front of strategy.
- [05:41]
Tim Seymour
Right.
- [05:41]
Karen Feiderman
And so at some point that will reverse. I have no idea where that is, what, what that number would be. That's not something if you're long. You don't want to hear that they're considering selling. That's sort of the first seller you don't want there.
- [05:55]
Guy Adami
I agree. I was going to start there that we're getting that decision in mid January, whether or not they get kicked out of MSCI. Right now, that could be 2.5 billion or so coming out of strategy. But if the other indices follow, it's 9 billion.
- [06:11]
Tim Seymour
So this is a.
- [06:12]
Guy Adami
This is a big move that I think people are getting ahead of to Karen's point. So if you look at bitcoin in the Market, market's down 1 1/2% from its high. Bitcoin is down 44%, Ethereum down 35%. So this is not something. It's a bifurcated market. So I wouldn't worry about this taking down the market. I would worry about what is so sick about crypto. And we're trying to decipher it. It's the institutional investing, it's ETFs. I think that's changed it.
- [06:40]
Melissa Lee
To make it worse or to make it worse. Stable to make it worse.
- [06:43]
Guy Adami
I think everyone thought it was going to make it better, but I think that now you have stops put in. So if an institution owns an etf, they're not. They don't hold it forever. They put in a stop and they say it's, I'm going to put in the stop 10, 10% below where I own it. And they get forced out of it, which triggers more.
- [06:59]
Melissa Lee
So they have done more.
- [07:00]
Karen Feiderman
So underlying, though, put in a stop.
- [07:02]
Guy Adami
I don't know if. I don't know if they would do it on the underlying. I think if they hold. It depends on what they hold in the fund. Right. If they hold the ETF in the fund, I don't know if that. They go out.
- [07:11]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. So I feel like if an institution has come this far and made an allocation of bitcoin, that. And I hear what you're saying, Steve, I don't sense that they're the weak hands, though. I get the sense that they've made a lot. There's been a heavy due diligence deliberation process that took three years to get them to a place where they feel comfortable. And that if anything, they're hoping it goes lower. I would be hoping it goes lower. I would be looking to buy Bitcoin at 80,000. I would be looking to buy it at 75.
- [07:37]
Guy Adami
But if you, if you own it on your sheets and like any other stock, let's just say it's IBM, there's got to be an exit strategy and you don't just keep buying it. There's got to be some sort of a mandate. Do you hold it forever or not?
- [07:51]
Tim Seymour
Again, as an allocation. And then there's the whole world of the investment advisor world where bitcoin has become an allocation in the last year. In a way it wasn't. In fact, it was a naughty word to bring up with your advisor. You had to do it off to the side. Now you've got a place where I think a lot of advisors actually have put people in probably at the highs. And you have some concern there that may be the weakest set of hands. I don't know that it's the institutional hands, though. I think my guess is they're looking to add.
- [08:16]
Melissa Lee
I think what's also different this time around is that there's these digital asset treasury companies. There have been a spate of them that are public through SPACs or whatever. It's conversions of normal companies with operating businesses that are now all of sudden digital asset treasury companies. And that's a whole other different dynamic. I'm not sure if that's a good one or a bad one, but it is a different dynamic to have these holders out there and have investors participate in the bitcoin trade or the. Or the crypto trade through these. Dax?
- [08:43]
Steve Grasso
Yes. So, Michael Seller, obviously, the first Strategy, they have 650,000 now at an average price of 75,000. That's basically the cost of that is $49 billion. Ish. Which is. Which is ironically or maybe not ironic, the market cap of strategy right now. But these other treasury companies that got in, almost by definition, they have to be underwater. Now, if you think about it, which I also think is problematic, and I'll throw this in as well, it seems to me, and I might be wrong, but people or institutions or groups that own Bitcoin probably are in the tech trade, the trade as well, which theoretically could put some pressure on that space.
- [09:21]
Guy Adami
It just feels sick to me. Does it not feel. Does it. I know, I know. Tim, you said that this is. It happens all the time. I agree with that. Right, it does. You've seen drawdowns of 80%, but when you look at the momentum in the selling, it feels like something else is going on. I don't know if it's structural to Guy's point, systemic, but it feels different this time.
- [09:41]
Karen Feiderman
Are they trying to crack strategy?
- [09:44]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I get why. To what end?
- [09:47]
Karen Feiderman
To what end? So let's say it reaches whatever they're.
- [09:51]
Cosmo Jiang
They're 75.
- [09:52]
Tim Seymour
Right.
- [09:52]
Karen Feiderman
75,000.
- [09:53]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [09:54]
Karen Feiderman
Then you have a very big seller that begets more selling from that same seller.
- [09:58]
Melissa Lee
And then you buy.
- [09:59]
Karen Feiderman
And then you buy.
- [10:00]
Melissa Lee
Oh, so it's almost. I mean, it's sort of like a version of the AMC Apes. I mean, you're trying to squeeze somebody into a position of pain so you can take advantage of that. I mean.
- [10:11]
Karen Feiderman
Yes. I don't know that that's Right.
- [10:14]
Melissa Lee
Right. But that's an interesting.
- [10:15]
Karen Feiderman
But if you're talking about something's off, something's off. Yeah.
- [10:16]
Guy Adami
It feels something systemic. I don't know if that's the chicken or the egg, but it just feels different.
- [10:20]
Karen Feiderman
I want to say, to Tim's point, those allocations, though, that I think the reluctant allocations as fairly small.
- [10:27]
Melissa Lee
Right, Right.
- [10:27]
Karen Feiderman
So let's say you have two and a half, 3%. I don't know, something in that range that wouldn't be enough to sort of freak me out to have to get out of this no matter what.
- [10:38]
Guy Adami
But look at the ETF outflows. They've been in multiple billions. When they're, when they're on the ETFs.
- [10:43]
Karen Feiderman
Anymore, it's a lot easier to just own the underlying.
- [10:46]
Guy Adami
Yeah, but they are ETFs now. When you have the outflow, they trigger a sell in the underlying. So there, there has been massive outflow. Outflow. So what's creating the massive. We're not debating on whether there are massive outflows or not. We're debating on why there are massive outflows currently in the ETF space.
- [11:01]
Melissa Lee
Well, let's get more on strategy and the overall crypto trade. Bring in Cosmo Jiang, he's general partner at Pantera Capital, joins us on the fast line. Cosmo, great to have you with us. You're also a very active investor in digital asset treasury companies. What do you think is going on here?
- [11:16]
Cosmo Jiang
Well, look, Michael, strategy is clearly taking a beating over the last month. It's a combination of the overall macro factors as well as stuff specific to digital assets and microstrategy. Right. If you look at macro, clearly there's a little bit of risk pullback right now with waffling around Fed rate cuts with, with the government shutdown a month ago and just the lack of economic data. And while that's been happening, crypto has been pulling back pretty meaningfully. And then specifically the microstrategy, there's, there's been a lot of questions over the last month, including the index inclusion question, which is coming up over the last couple of weeks. And then today, you know, some more concerns about whether or not the dividends can be fully covered. And so there's just a lot of speculation about whether that's going to cause more forced bitcoin selling. All that is weighing on microstrategy.
- [11:59]
Melissa Lee
Right. And the CEO has said that he doesn't want the net asset value to go below one. I'm curious, since you have so many debts on your, on your, you know, in your portfolio, Cosmo, are many of them below, you know, below one? I mean, are they underwater in terms of when they acquired the crypto that they hold, whether it be ether or bitcoin, and where the cryptos are trading now?
- [12:20]
Cosmo Jiang
Also, there are two really interesting independent questions there. One is, you know, where are these trading? We're certainly seeing these dads from when we first started investing in these and starting this boom. A lot of these debts, you know, on average they were traded around a 2 1/2 times M net premium. And today they're trading at around close to 1 on average with the median debt trading at point 9. So certainly the majority are trading below 1x. I think what's really interesting is that this concept of underwater doesn't totally apply to them because these are effectively permanent capital vehicles. And many of the people who own these own it as another way to get access to the underlying. And so for them it's like whether they bought Bitcoin or the debt, they're sort of relatively ambivalent between the both between the two. And so and the data itself isn't forced to sell its bitcoin at any given time. I do think though, what's really interesting is with all these dads trading below one times actually all of a sudden becomes a really interesting asymmetric upside trade potential. Right. It's unlikely they trade meaningfully below NAV because there are all these ways to protect NAV. Just like MicroStrategy has come out today to say they're doing buybacks and then you get the potential upside of it could trade at a premium again in the future. And so limited downside relative to the underlying. With meaningful upside relative to the underlying cosmos.
- [13:40]
Karen Feiderman
Karen, thanks for being on. Do you know, it appears to me that you could sell an IBID etf, take a loss and immediately buy bitcoin underlying and have that loss and not have a watch sale by buying the actual. By buying Bitcoin.
- [13:54]
Melissa Lee
Do you.
- [13:55]
Karen Feiderman
Do you think that's going on at all?
- [13:58]
Cosmo Jiang
I definitely think there's. There's some of that. Certainly it's getting close to the end of the year and so everyone's thinking about tax loss harvesting. You know, it is what it is. We're here. And digital assets have been one of the worst, one of the lesser performing asset classes of the year. Most assets are down on the year. And so I do expect there to continue to be some chop as people think about tax loss harvesting. And there are many ways to get spot replacement, like you said, whether that's selling ETF to buy spot or selling ETF to buy that Cosmo where I.
- [14:26]
Tim Seymour
See Bitcoin, I think that there are people waiting to buy lower and don't feel they have to buy it here, but also are excited to buy it lower. And I am referring to the institutional community. Community. A community that maybe, you know, you guys have been in this camp for a long time, but you have friends, you are in the middle of an institutional hedge fund community. What is the appetite for Bitcoin as It's selling off right now.
- [14:49]
Cosmo Jiang
It's really interesting. And you give a great point from, I'd say starting two weeks ago when Bitcoin hit that 80k, all of a sudden I got a bunch of text floating in from my, for my old world from the guy that, you know, large, long only large private equity firms that are like, hey, Cosmo, is it time to start buying Bitcoin? Whereas everyone else within the crypto native world, when we're spending all our days talking to other crypto natives, we're all worried that the sky's falling apart. But you're exactly right. All the institutions are looking at this like a buying opportunity. We're getting a lot of inbound right now from people not saying that they're terrified, but saying that, hey, is it finally time to start going from that 0% to 1% allocation?
- [15:28]
Melissa Lee
Are crypto natives worried about the skies falling?
- [15:30]
Tim Seymour
Cosmo?
- [15:32]
Melissa Lee
Because that concerns me.
- [15:36]
Cosmo Jiang
I think, you know, if you, I think what's really interesting is there are, there are a few sentiment indicators that I follow to try to tell where we are in the market environment. And on most indicators it would suggest that we're at oversold conditions. Right? The RSI went below 30, which means it was oversold on Bitcoin. If you look at the Fear and Greed index, which is an amalgamation of a lot of technical indicators, it's at 10 on a scale of 100. Last time was at 10 was after FTX collapse. And so certainly people that are within the sector are really, really scared now. It's like, you know, there's a classic thing, you know, you want to be greedy when others are fearful. And we found that as long as we're not in a prolonged bear market and who knows, we could be entering, there's always that possibility. But so long as you don't believe we're in a prolonged bear market, any time those technical indicators have come to those oversold levels and fear and greed down at that level, it's always been a great buying opportunity.
- [16:27]
Melissa Lee
All right, Cosmo, we're going to leave it there. Thank you so much for your time. Cosmo Jiang what's interesting, I thought about MicroStrategy too, is that the notion of having a US dollar reserve in order to pay its dividend, in order to fund the reserve, they're going to sell stock at the money through their, at the Money offering. So they're selling stock in order to fund a US dollar reserve in order to pay the dividend of the preferred stock. It just seems sort of Circular to me.
- [16:54]
Steve Grasso
Problematic. I mean, some at a certain, you know, the market starting to think. The conversation that Karen brought up correctly is the market is testing them right now and we'll see. And that happens when there's a big position out there, whether it's in crypto or anything else. If the market's aware of it, the market will shoot against it. And I think that's what's happening now.
- [17:12]
Karen Feiderman
So, Steve, you might have a better thought of this than I, but do you think this existential threat that's out there, quantum of quantum breaking the encryption, you know.
- [17:23]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I mean, I think there was a hack in October and I think that it's always out there. But the it's out there means. Is it 10 years, five years, five months, five days? It's not five days, but it is susceptible to a quantum hack. All crypto people, natives will say that.
- [17:39]
Melissa Lee
Let's get to retail now. Black Friday was a winner. Overall spending was up more than 4% from last year. This according to MasterCard spending pulse data and online spending jumped over 9% from last year to nearly $12 billion. The XRT Retail ETF finished the session higher and over the last week is up over 6%. So is the consumer coming to the rescue once again? Wow. Were you shopping, Guy? You know, unbelievable.
- [18:03]
Guy Adami
See his new tie?
- [18:05]
Steve Grasso
New tie. I mean, yes. Couldn't wait Friday. And why do people, why do they sprint into those stores? What do they sprint.
- [18:13]
Tim Seymour
Because there's only one TV for sale.
- [18:17]
Guy Adami
Be careful.
- [18:18]
Tim Seymour
And by the way, don't push people around. Guy, you're a big guy. You're a big fella.
- [18:22]
Melissa Lee
I mean, when you have a cart, you know, that could really be dangerous.
- [18:25]
Steve Grasso
Excellent points in Wal Mart all time high. I think that makes sense. And the fact that it'd been flatlining for as long as it has suggest as Louisiana Model would say, the longer the base, the higher in outer space. And I think that's where we're headed. Costco getting off that space. We talked about that week that Costco looked like it was setting up held a good point. I think out of all of them right now for a trade, Costco is the most interesting one.
- [18:48]
Melissa Lee
Argus cut its price target on target to 125 from 135. Saying, you know what? We just don't like what happened here in the third quarter. It just wasn't good enough. We don't like the idea. We don't like the idea that Walmart has been reinvesting its winnings over so long and Target is now this behind.
- [19:04]
Tim Seymour
And it may not be that pear trade that's now at, you know, a three and a half standard deviation difference from Wal Mart to Target. We've had multiple retail analysts on this show in the last, I'd say six weeks. And I think, you know, we even heard this across the board from a couple of core investors that that Target needs to show more in terms of their ability to compete on price, more in terms of their ability to actually have the, the, the impact of investments that we know have worked for Wal Mart in terms of digital and margin enhancing type stuff. I think you can nibble Target here I like, Target here I like. I think we've had a chance to digest, I think new management. I think there's a chance to actually see this push on and it's tough to buy wal Mart at 36 times.
- [19:48]
Karen Feiderman
That piece is sort of funny though. So we're kind of lukewarm. Up 40% is our target.
- [19:53]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, yeah.
- [19:54]
Karen Feiderman
Okay.
- [19:55]
Melissa Lee
I.
- [19:56]
Karen Feiderman
So Guy always talks about the, you know, American consumer, just no matter the situation, you can always count on them. And I think of you more as a saunter guy than a dash. But I think, I mean there was a lot to like, there was a lot of good retail reports. I think that companies were in better shape inventory wise than we had feared with the tariffs earlier in the year. That was really causing trouble. Some very big moves. The one thing I did day I sold some Abercrombie and Fitch upside calls for in March just because I feel like that move, while not unwarranted, is so enormous that had to take some money off you.
- [20:35]
Guy Adami
I think Target, to Tim's point, that everything is really out of that name trading at the multiple that it's trading at right now. If you, if you, if you want to just place a bet and say your downside is limited, you go with Target. If you stay with the winner, you go with Wal Mart. E Commerce still blasting through what they thought it was going to be.
- [20:53]
Melissa Lee
That's how Guy does all his shopping.
- [20:55]
Steve Grasso
I love the.
- [20:55]
Melissa Lee
On the line.
- [20:56]
Steve Grasso
On the line.
- [20:57]
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, yeah, because they're parking there.
- [20:58]
Steve Grasso
You can, you don't have to leave the comfort of your own house, apparently. And people do this. Yes, as a form of like commerce.
- [21:06]
Melissa Lee
People did it a lot, even on Thanksgiving. This, this year can't last forever, boy. Coming up, ante up in the Big Apple. The casinos coming to New York City and why Wall street is betting big on some high rollers in the space. Plus the heavy metal trade cranking up to 11. The all time high in silver gold year and run and the move the next move in Dr. Copper as investors dig in. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money's back into.
- [21:34]
Tim Seymour
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc.
- [21:42]
Capella University Announcer
Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.
- [22:10]
Tim Seymour
Edu Buy the dip with Pro's best deal of the year including exclusive access to Pro live events. This is my first time at the stock exchange and it's been awesome. Go pro@cnbc.com ProBlackFriday terms and restrictions apply.
- [22:30]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to fast money. Casino stocks rolling higher today. Wind popping more than 3% hitting levels not seen in four years. This comes after Goldman added Wynn to its conviction buy list. MGM and Caesars also getting a slight boost today. The pop coming on news New York City will get three mega casinos. They are set to open in Queens and the Bronx. New York Mets owner Steve Cohen is part of one of the proposals. Could be great for the Big Apple.
- [22:56]
Tim Seymour
Well, I tell you what, I think Steve Cohen is going to do a great job building around that whole area that is maybe the best baseball experience and Guy Adami knows that that the Bronx only wishes it could feel like this. The bottom line here is the addressable market is massive. The more important thing is that casino stocks are moving. They're not moving on this on this announcement. They're moving on the announcement that GGR goes gross gaming revenue across the different places that core. Whether it's when Las Vegas, Sands or even some of the Vegas based, you're seeing very strong follow through from not only the VIP but also some of the high end. So to me this is a case where I actually think finally you're seeing the casino stocks take back the EBITDA discount that they took during COVID Melco is a name I'm long and I do think Macao is picking up steam massively.
- [23:45]
Steve Grasso
I agree. I mean you put a market multiple, maybe slightly premium to market multiple on Wynn. You're talking about $150 stock, which I don't think is crazy given the EPS growth and given some of the tailwinds. So you Know, I think we've been talking about this for a while. It stalled for a period of time. It seems to be on its source now. I think it goes higher from here.
- [24:03]
Guy Adami
When has outperformed the group but Las Vegas chart looks better and I think you're playing for the high end or the vip as Tim said. I'd rather play with those. But if you want to go with online then you go with DraftKings which has been. What's it called now, outcome betting, which Kashi.
- [24:19]
Melissa Lee
Prediction.
- [24:20]
Steve Grasso
Prediction Market prediction.
- [24:21]
Cosmo Jiang
That one.
- [24:21]
Guy Adami
So, so that one's. I think DraftKings is taking a hit because that. So if you're willing to deal with the headwind from the prediction markets, I think ultimately DraftKings will be a winner.
- [24:31]
Melissa Lee
Is there a headwind do you think?
- [24:34]
Tim Seymour
Look, DraftKings has run into and we've been talking about DraftKings every time we get into a sports betting scandal even though they are not the ones but the way the parlays and some of the approaches that have been taken here, I, I think the addressable market's great. I was long drafting for a long time. I'd rather be in the casinos here.
- [24:53]
Melissa Lee
All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [24:57]
Tim Seymour
Digging into the metal moves. Gold, silver and copper all continuing to climb with one more month of trading left in 2025. But can the heavy metals keep rocking in the new year? And speaking of the new year, one top analyst says the AI led tech rally can keep grinding higher. The names he sees leading the charge. And if AI bubble fears are overblown. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. The heaviest metal credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence. Plated with the very same tungsten that forged the international space Station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword.
- [25:52]
Guy Adami
It's a classic corporate power move. But the real power move, having end.
- [25:57]
Tim Seymour
To end visibility on your most critical shipments.
- [26:00]
Guy Adami
FedEx.
- [26:01]
Melissa Lee
The new power move.
- [26:03]
Tim Seymour
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- [26:33]
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- [27:05]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. The precious metals rally continuing as investors weigh a possible December rate cut, a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainty. Silver hitting a fresh all time high today, now up 16% over just the past week with gold up more than 4% in that time. Both metals on pace for their best year since 1979. And copper also settling higher, hitting its highest level since July. You've been on this trade for a long time.
- [27:30]
Tim Seymour
Well, first let's talk about copper because it really is an uptrend and a chart that's impressive if you take this all the way back even to say April May of 2024, with a lot of volatility. And sometimes if you're looking at copper prices, especially those posted on the lme, they're a little bit volatile some of them. Sometimes they feel like they're a little manipulated. But ultimately the trend is absolutely a friend and it is some of the key themes we talk about, whether it's the power grid, whether it's utilities, whether we are in a very copper intensive environment in terms of building out all the power that we know that we need. Plus we do have supply side issues and all we seem to hear about from the biggest producers in the world. Having said all that, I also think there are companies that are finally run better. So I'm long Freeport, I'm long Southern Copper in my etf. I'm long a couple other plays that are derivative copper plays. BHP Rio Tinto, I think it's game on.
- [28:18]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I agree with Southern Copper. They report I think again in late January. So you have earnings coming up but you do have a valuation. I think it's reasonable. Not that you trade these on valuations, but silver to me is flashing the warning signs right now. Silver obviously sold off on the back of gold back on its horse. Now more and more people can start writing about it and the gold trade is not over. I think it took a pause.
- [28:41]
Tim Seymour
Are you bullish or bearish?
- [28:42]
Steve Grasso
No, I'm bullish in silver for silver.
- [28:44]
Tim Seymour
And gold as burl.
- [28:47]
Steve Grasso
Burrow My roommate's grandfather was Burling. Looked like Burl.
- [28:51]
Tim Seymour
Look like a lot of people.
- [28:52]
Steve Grasso
Your roommate was. No, now he looks.
- [28:55]
Tim Seymour
You mean the Burl Ives? Like the Claymation Burl Ives and the real bureau?
- [28:59]
Steve Grasso
No, the Burl Ives and the real Burl Ives. Yeah, because it's a snowman.
- [29:03]
Melissa Lee
The clay one?
- [29:04]
Steve Grasso
No, it's not clay.
- [29:06]
Tim Seymour
It's a snowman. But there's something about the Burl Ives look that, you know, eventually we all kind of get.
- [29:10]
Steve Grasso
By the way, I don't know if we're allowed to talk about this. It's not our network, but Santa Claus is Coming to Town was on last night at like 10 o' clock at night on one of the major networks.
- [29:21]
Tim Seymour
I think that was too late.
- [29:22]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, the kids can't get that nostalgic viewing for people.
- [29:25]
Tim Seymour
That was probably for you. I don't think.
- [29:27]
Melissa Lee
Anyway, anybody wants to. Metals.
- [29:28]
Tim Seymour
Sorry?
- [29:29]
Guy Adami
Silver and copper. Trump administration has them as critical or strategic minerals or materials. There's going to be a tailwind for the next couple of years in this one freeport, 74% of revenues come from copper. That's the one I'm long currently.
- [29:43]
Melissa Lee
All right, we've got a news alert here. Apple Artificial intelligence chief John and John Jen Andrea is stepping down from his position. He'll serve as an advisor to the company until his retirement in the spring of 2026. Amar Subramania, Microsoft's corporate VP of AI, is joining Apple as VP of AI reporting to Craig Fredericki while Jan Andrea's organization will shift to other senior executives. Apple says that Jan Andrea is retiring. Some might say it's after a string of AI misses for Apple with no real AI strategy. I'm not sure how you interpret this, Karen. Same because of the Mrs.
- [30:18]
Karen Feiderman
Right. I guess there's that also. I mean clearly they've taken a very different approach to how to spend or not spend on which in the end might prove to be the right course.
- [30:27]
Guy Adami
Maybe she got a raise. I mean the stock, the stock did.
- [30:30]
Tim Seymour
Better than 200 to 280 since August on Apple, the stock everybody hates. And that's, that's really the story. I mean nobody wants to own it. Nobody feels there's AI in there. That's the reason you're buying it.
- [30:40]
Melissa Lee
Well, maybe now with Microsoft's a guy going to Apple, there should be more AI in it and it might juice the stock even more. I don't know.
- [30:48]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I mean ultimately I think with Apple it's not easy to buy the valuation. It is easy to buy the. You know call it the the installed base and all the dynamics around AI that the Google dynamic. If Google is winning in their core search, that's good signs for Apple.
- [31:02]
Steve Grasso
To me the winners are now the people that are not spending and Apple is closed at an all time high today. So Tim, Karen and Steve have all been talking about this for sure.
- [31:12]
Karen Feiderman
I don't know if that means we're further along in the potential CEO choice. Right.
- [31:18]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Succession if you passed over and so therefore is leaving.
- [31:20]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. What about Heat Miser I Apple CEO.
- [31:24]
Steve Grasso
That was you know Mother Nature was in that.
- [31:27]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. A bit of a cameo, not a great that.
- [31:29]
Karen Feiderman
After the break, after the show ends.
- [31:32]
Melissa Lee
The latest ideal is Nvidia takes a $2 billion stake in Synopsis. How they're locking looking to fast track AI computing power. What a top tech analyst sees in store for the space as December trading kicks off. Fast Money's back in two.
- [31:47]
Tim Seymour
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [32:00]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks starting the week in the red after returning from the holiday weekend and snapping a five day winning streak. The Dow falling more than 400 points, the S and P down more than half a percent and the Nasdaq losing about 4, 10 of a percent and an after hours mover. Shares of MongoDB jumping nearly 20% after topping earnings and revenue estimates. Well, Nvidia's deal spree continues at the company announcing a $2 billion stake in chip designer software maker chip design software maker Synopsis. The expanded partnership is aimed at speeding up AI driven engineering, cutting workloads that once took weeks down to just hours. Nvidia higher by a percent and a half while Synopsis gained nearly 5%. For more on the trade, Wedbush's Dan Ives joins us here on set. He just released his 2026 outlook forecasting 20% upside for the tech sector next year. When we say tech sector, define it all of the NASDAQ MAG7 names, what are you seeing?
- [32:53]
Dan Ives
I think big tech. If I think about like big tech in the AI trade that's probably going to be up anywhere from 20 to 25%. But I think it's really the AI revolution stocks. What I view is sort of the winners up 20% at a minimum. Look, it's my view this is just starting the next stage of the AI revolution. I mean all of our checks are shown even in the last three, four weeks about 20, 25% of deals are actually accelerated from the hyperscalers. So that's why we view it from software to cybersecurity, the infrastructure. I continue to view it as, you know, this is just the beginning of the monetization of the AI revolution.
- [33:30]
Melissa Lee
What do you make of these deals though? Excuse me, that Nvidia has been making in terms of investing in a partner, which is basically a customer, because in this case not the deal is that Synopsis will use Cuda and so will become a paying customer. So they're investing $2 billion in stock in order to gain this customer at some point, do you question that or is that all fine?
- [33:52]
Dan Ives
Look, I mean it's something myself that covered tech late 90s vendor financing. So obviously, you know, worries. Is that a red flag? Look, I view it as, this is an AI arms race in terms of everything that's playing out. So for Nvidia, for Open Air, for what we see, AMD and others, like they're putting stakes in the ground. I view it as for every dollar they spend, they're getting back 8 to $10. Now in the near term there could be questions until it plays out, but I think we're going to look out 2, 3, 4 years at these deals and that's how like in video, they're going to continue to be like, that's the one chip in the world that's fueling the AI revolution. And I don't see that slowing down. That's why I love everything Jensen's doing.
- [34:31]
Steve Grasso
Were you surprised? I was. I'm curious that Synopsys didn't trade better today. Understanding that stock went from 650 to 420 in a straight line. That announcement today, $80 billion company, $2 billion investment, I would have it traded well, I thought it traded a lot better than it did today.
- [34:49]
Dan Ives
Yeah, look, I think, you know, if you look at Oracle, the $100 dip ever since Open Air, the view almost like good is bad, like being associated in video opening. Is that like a too big to fail moment? But I think we're going to look out like I'm surprised the stock didn't trade higher. I actually, I think there's something where I view that as more of an opportunity given my view, like that's one of Those sort of second, third derivatives of this revolution trade into 26.
- [35:15]
Guy Adami
So Dan on the peripheral. So look, look at a Palantir. It's been a name that you've been bullish on. It's been hammered right after earnings. Is this one that you doubled down on given the valuation where it's just so outsized for everyone to actually look at it and think that they want to buy it even cheaper than it was, but it's not really substantially cheaper. Do you buy it here?
- [35:35]
Dan Ives
I mean, Steve, to me you triple down. Because it's my view on Palantir. I get it's expensive today, but in the next two, three years, I think there's a trillion dollar market because 20, 30% of all the deal for the trillions of dollars being set on the use cases. I mean, they're playing a different game in terms of any AI use case in the enterprise. Palantir's first call. So that's still not reflected in the stock. And I get it's super expensive and it's become sort of an emotional bull bear debate. But I think this is a stock that, you know, we've talked about 200, 225, 250, in terms of my view where it goes.
- [36:11]
Tim Seymour
Dan, great having you here especially so we can see the full Technicolor seed fault. So, yeah, question. So we all asked, let's get this out of the way because I can't concentrate until I know, is that seafoam? Is that pistachio? Is that key lime? I think, is that mint julep?
- [36:26]
Dan Ives
It's seafood. Seafoam is what I would call it.
- [36:29]
Tim Seymour
Unless I had it right. Okay, so you say, look to the second, third and fourth derivatives in the trade in 26. And on some level, the second derivative in 25 was almost like a Broadcom. But where would you want to be? Would it be I. Would it, Would it be some other parts? Would it be, Would it be, Would it be utilities? Would it be other parts of that second and third derivative?
- [36:49]
Dan Ives
I think three areas. One, software we've taught the use cases. Palantir, Mongo you talked about, I mean, that's obviously one of our favorites. Also Snowflake in terms of where I view that. And then CyberSecurity, I think CrowdStrike, I look at that, I look at Zscower, I look at Palo Alto. And then from an infrastructure perspective, you know, you look at Nebbys, you look at coreweave, you look at the more infrastructure players that I think are playing out. I mean, that to me is going to be the key trait. It's trying to identify the second, third, fourth derivatives as this all plays out.
- [37:19]
Karen Feiderman
So what do you think is the biggest risk to the whole story? Is it debt? Is it something open air? What is it?
- [37:25]
Dan Ives
I think the biggest risk is just a view where, okay, just like a meta is a good example capex. Capex. Then all of a sudden they take the stock down. Does that ultimately impact management teams to be less aggressive about CapEx? I don't think it will be because it speaks to my viewers. Capex, big tech pie, closer to 600 billion as it plays out. We're going to go through these moments deep sea, right. We're going to go through worries about, you know, with tariffs, us, China, and I get it. But in my view, those are the opportunities to own these names, not the times to panic.
- [37:58]
Melissa Lee
OpenAI is in the center of everything. And I'm wondering how, how you view OpenAI in terms of its ability to finance all of the deals that it has made, given that we have limited access to information on OpenAI. And what if OpenAI stumbles? What happens to the overall AI trade?
- [38:18]
Dan Ives
Yeah, look, obviously central to it, a too big to fail moment. But my view is like they're Central in the 3 to 4 trillion that's going to be spent in the AI revolution. I don't worry that that's necessarily one of those sort of moments, that there's going to be a sort of crack in a 99 moment. I continue to view this in 1996 moment rather than 1999, 2000 bubble moment. But OpenAI, they're just starting to build the stack now. There will be concerns, but when you look at debt relative to what's been taken out of what revenue is going to be, I mean from Oracle and everyone else, that's a smart move. Even though that maybe they misspoke in terms of too big to fail moment. That's not a concern for me because when I come back from Asia, I see deals accelerating massively. And us, you only have 3% of companies have gone down the path. International is just starting. For the first time in 30 years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.
- [39:15]
Melissa Lee
Dan, great to see you. Thank you, thank you.
- [39:16]
Steve Grasso
Before we let him go.
- [39:17]
Melissa Lee
Yes.
- [39:18]
Steve Grasso
The CEO of a major US company, I will not divulge the name, saying that Dan's outfit is unbelievable today.
- [39:26]
Melissa Lee
Unbelievable. In a good way.
- [39:27]
Cosmo Jiang
In a good way.
- [39:30]
Steve Grasso
In a good way.
- [39:31]
Karen Feiderman
Good way.
- [39:31]
Dan Ives
I think the guy look, I think color, I mean, I think the color in that blues.
- [39:35]
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
- [39:36]
Dan Ives
But again, it just comes down to like, you know, this could be the.
- [39:38]
Guy Adami
Most conservative outfit I've ever seen yet.
- [39:41]
Dan Ives
Look again, in the party, it's still 10:30pm it was 9pm Party goes to 4am, so you'll see better.
- [39:50]
Melissa Lee
Party goes to 4am and thank you, Dan Ives. Coming up, the next Turn in auto stocks as GM hits fresh all time highs in today's session. How our traders are steering in that sector when fast Money return. Welcome back to Fast Money. Check out shares of GM touching a fresh all time high in today's session before pulling back Shares up more than 65% since April. More than doubling the broader market's performance this year. Other auto stocks also seeing some gains over the past few months. Stellantis for Toyota outpacing the S&P 500. Is it still a buy here? Karen?
- [40:31]
Karen Feiderman
Well I sold it a long time ago which was not a good sale then. I mean you know the, the thing that's hardest about it is how much that it's moved. It's not so much the valuation which is a, you know, mid six, seven multiple. So nonetheless I don't own it and I'm sad.
- [40:47]
Guy Adami
I think once you remove those EV mandates they get to sell what they are selling. So I think that really gets something off of their back. I think both Ford and GM have much higher to go.
- [40:58]
Steve Grasso
You get a pullback maybe to those double tops around 61 or something. But I think now they've established themselves as like you know what, you can buy this on valuation. So Tim spent on this for a while as well. I think he stayed long.
- [41:09]
Tim Seymour
This has been one of the most misunderstood stocks for the longest time given no credit for their core business and now it trades. Now it trades around 7.1 times forward. It trades at a 15% free cash flow yield. Company's never been run better. I think it's going to $100 next year. I mean I've been long this a long time and there have been some really tough periods but the valuation always gave me reason to stick around. The management team is constantly been looking to raise their game and how they run this company.
- [41:38]
Melissa Lee
How about versus Ford?
- [41:39]
Guy Adami
Steve I think GM does a better job and I think they're getting it really down to anecdotally. I think the cars are made better quite frankly right now and Ford lost more money on the EV MEM I think Ford lost $12 billion. It's a hard hole to dig out of. I think GM has managed it much better than Ford has.
- [41:57]
Melissa Lee
That was effectively a Would you rather without me saying would you rather But I'm going to pose the same question to you.
- [42:03]
Steve Grasso
Ok, but you know you and I actually drove together. Remember that?
- [42:05]
Melissa Lee
In a Tesla.
- [42:06]
Steve Grasso
But what did I say to you before?
- [42:08]
Guy Adami
Would you rather rather?
- [42:10]
Melissa Lee
You have said many things to me before.
- [42:12]
Steve Grasso
No, but prior to us driving I said, you're not. I said, I'm driving.
- [42:14]
Melissa Lee
I'm not driving the car.
- [42:15]
Steve Grasso
You're not driving the car. And then we went to Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. By the fire. We had little.
- [42:20]
Tim Seymour
Why didn't you let her drive the car? Why were you so domineering about that?
- [42:23]
Guy Adami
I don't think she has a license.
- [42:24]
Karen Feiderman
I didn't want to drive the car.
- [42:26]
Melissa Lee
I don't really drive.
- [42:26]
Steve Grasso
She doesn't have a license. Okay? I was trying to obey the laws. Tim.
- [42:31]
Tim Seymour
What the.
- [42:31]
Melissa Lee
Let me go, okay? I have a license. For the record, Disney's box office bump. How Zootopia helped lead the holiday weekend. And if it can bring some more movie magic back into the stock. And fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Disney getting a nice boost after its latest animated family comedy Zootopia 2, topped the box office over the Thanksgiving holiday. The buddy cop movie had the biggest opening ever for an animated flick, GROSSING More than 156 movies. Million in the U.S. more than $550 million globally. It is on its way to joining the first installment in the billion dollar territory. Also the second biggest Thanksgiving opening ever, following Moana 2 just last year. And Karen, I will go to you because you actually saw this movie in.
- [43:20]
Karen Feiderman
The theaters with my family imax, which is so loud and so huge. And it's so funny to watch a movie with kids around because they just yell out whatever they. That's a bunny. For no reason.
- [43:30]
Guy Adami
Your kids.
- [43:31]
Dan Ives
Anyway.
- [43:33]
Karen Feiderman
No, it was Lawrence.
- [43:34]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [43:35]
Karen Feiderman
I mean, I didn't think it was great, but that didn't matter. It's fun. It's fun to go with your family. I haven't been to the movies in a really long time, but it does not make me want to be long Disney nor short. It just. But it was a fun time.
- [43:47]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. I mean, Disney is what it is here at 106.
- [43:50]
Steve Grasso
So Utopia 2.
- [43:52]
Karen Feiderman
Zootopia.
- [43:54]
Steve Grasso
Utopia is like the pinnacle. So if it's the pinnacle Zootopia, why would you.
- [43:59]
Karen Feiderman
For animals, it's a utopia.
- [44:00]
Steve Grasso
For stands to reason that there shouldn't be a two if Zootopia itself is the pinnacle of zoos.
- [44:08]
Tim Seymour
Except for when you have. Except for when you have a sequel and you need to have anything to.
- [44:12]
Steve Grasso
I want to be bullish in Disney valuation, but it can't get out of its own way. It's got to close above 125. We're nowhere near it.
- [44:19]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [44:20]
Tim Seymour
Long Disney, you know, been long for four years just sitting around waiting for something. Not Zoo Cop or Zootopia. Excuse me, Bunny Cop. I don't know.
- [44:29]
Melissa Lee
I guess you're not going to go see that movie.
- [44:31]
Guy Adami
No. When you look at it on a chart though, taking out Zootopia Utopia and Zoo Cop, the sequel, it created a new movie.
- [44:40]
Melissa Lee
I actually think that would be an amazing.
- [44:42]
Tim Seymour
I think it wouldn't be.
- [44:44]
Guy Adami
It's got some Zoo Cop 2, a prequel. So if you look at where it gapped up from April to May on this latest sell off that, that Disney had it stopped kind of where it should have stopped. So I think if you shoot against it to that $100 level, if you want to be longer, I think that's okay.
- [45:00]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Welcome back to Fast Money Guy. Did you do anything cool today?
- [45:08]
Steve Grasso
Well, funny you should say that, Melissa. We got a crack staff here at D.C. and we went across the street one Times Square to check out the ball. Look at that thing. That is the New Year's Eve ball that will be dropped. 5280 crystals Waterford, twice as many as last year.
- [45:26]
Tim Seymour
He looks so small next to the ball.
- [45:28]
Steve Grasso
Excuse me.
- [45:28]
Melissa Lee
Sure. The ball is giant.
- [45:29]
Tim Seymour
It's a big ball.
- [45:30]
Melissa Lee
Big ball.
- [45:31]
Steve Grasso
That's me in the elevator going up. By the way, more recent, Jerry did this. I mean Maurice, by the way, he voiced over the turkey sounds from last week.
- [45:38]
Tim Seymour
Best turkey on tv.
- [45:39]
Melissa Lee
Amazing turkey.
- [45:40]
Tim Seymour
Best turkey on tv.
- [45:41]
Melissa Lee
Anyway, to hear more about this and get ready for trading the holidays, tune into our our next Fast Money Live. That is a week from Thursday. The countdown is on December 11th. We're sold out by the way. Final trade time.
- [45:50]
Tim Seymour
Tim GM I think it's actually six and a half times next year. Stay there. Stay long.
- [45:54]
Melissa Lee
Karen. Yes.
- [45:55]
Karen Feiderman
Ulta Beauty reports on Thursday.
- [45:57]
Guy Adami
Stage one's for Dan Ives. Palantir Jackson Darts.
- [46:00]
Steve Grasso
Going to light it up tonight. Psx.
- [46:02]
Melissa Lee
Melissa, thank you for watching Fast. See you tomorrow. Mad Money Jim Cramer starts right now.
- [46:09]
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- [46:26]
Melissa Lee
To make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an.
- [46:30]
Capella University Announcer
Expression of an opinion.
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Melissa Lee
Such opinions are based upon information the.
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Capella University Announcer
Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither.
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Melissa Lee
CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.
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Capella University Announcer
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University. Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.