CNBC Fast Money – Episode Summary

Bitcoin Leads Crypto Drop… And a 2026 AI Tech Outlook

Air Date: December 1, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami
Guests: Cosmo Jiang (Pantera Capital), Dan Ives (Wedbush Securities)

Episode Overview

This episode of Fast Money dives into the day’s heavy selloff in crypto markets—especially Bitcoin—and explores how leveraged exposure across companies and ETFs may be exacerbating volatility. The roundtable then pivots to a bullish 2026 outlook for AI and technology stocks, with guest analyst Dan Ives forecasting continued strength, and covers winners in retail, gaming, metals, and autos. The mood is analytical but energetic, balancing near-term market concerns with longer-term opportunities.

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Crypto Markets: Bitcoin Slide & Systemic Fears

Segment Start: [01:03]

• Market Recap:

  • Bitcoin hits lowest level since April, threatening its first negative year since 2022.
  • Crypto-linked equities, like MicroStrategy ("strategy"), are getting hammered (down 36% in four weeks).
  • CEO of MicroStrategy spooked investors by mentioning potential asset sales to cover dividends.

• Leverage Unwind:

  • Steve Grasso [02:47]: Notes that expectations of a dovish Fed haven't rescued Bitcoin. Multiple macro factors (Fed uncertainty, Japanese yields) are pushing risk assets down.
  • Melissa Lee/Tim Seymour [03:29]: Discuss the impact of unwinding "carry trades" and how leveraged plays in crypto are amplifying the selloff.
  • Melissa Lee [04:47]: "There’s more leverage to be taken out in bitcoin. And so that’s just another pressure on this trade here."

• Institutional and ETF Dynamics:

  • Guy Adami [05:54]: Points out looming decisions on ETF index inclusion, possibly triggering more forced selling.
  • Panel [06:39]: Debates whether institutional adoption via ETFs—once thought to stabilize the market—may now amplify outflows due to automatic selling from stop-loss triggers.

• Changing Holder Profiles:

  • Karen Feiderman [05:03]: Surprised at the lack of movement in some crypto-related stocks. Admits confusion about where the bottom might be, reflecting market uncertainty.
  • Melissa Lee [08:15]: Flags new "digital asset treasury companies" as an evolving dynamic, adding complexity to crypto exposure on public markets.

• Possible Structural Weakness:

  • Guy Adami [09:21]: "It just feels sick to me… when you look at the momentum in the selling, it feels like something else is going on—I don't know if it's structural, systemic, but it feels different this time."
  • Karen Feiderman [10:14]: "If you're talking about something's off, something's off. Yeah."

Guest: Cosmo Jiang, Pantera Capital

Segment Start: [11:01]

• MicroStrategy’s Troubles: Blames both macro selloff and specific concerns over index inclusion and dividend coverage for MicroStrategy's slide.

• Digital Asset Companies ("DADs"): Most are trading below NAV, but these are "permanent capital vehicles" and owners may see it as an opportunity.

• Tax Loss Harvesting: Expects year-end tax-loss selling to keep volatility high.

• Institutional Appetite:

  • "All the institutions are looking at this like a buying opportunity… is it finally time to start going from that 0% to 1% allocation?" [14:49]

• Sentiment: Crypto native sentiment is "really, really scared," but from an oversold contrarian perspective, Jiang sees this as a possible buying opportunity.

  • "Any time those technical indicators have come to those oversold levels… it's always been a great buying opportunity." [15:35]

• Quantum Risk: Briefly discussed as a far-off but existential risk to crypto (“not five days, but…susceptible”).

2. Retail Resilience: Black Friday Winners

Segment Start: [17:38]

• Black Friday Spending:

  • Spending is up more than 4%, online up 9% year-over-year.
  • Walmart at all-time highs; Costco notable mover.
  • Tim Seymour [18:47]: "Costco… right now for a trade, Costco is the most interesting one."
  • Karen Feiderman [19:56]: "There was a lot to like… companies were in better shape inventory-wise than we had feared."

• Walmart vs. Target:

  • Analysts cautious on Target; Walmart praised for reinvestment and digital momentum.
  • Guy Adami [20:34]: "Stay with the winner, you go with Wal Mart.”

3. Gaming: New York City Casinos & Casino Stocks

Segment Start: [22:29]

• NYC Getting Three Mega Casinos:
  • Goldman bullish on Wynn; anticipation of strong local demand.
  • Tim Seymour [22:56]: "The addressable market is massive… casino stocks are moving [on strength in] GGR—gross gaming revenue."
  • Guy Adami: Recommends Las Vegas Sands for high-end, VIP exposure, and DraftKings for online betting, noting “prediction market” headwinds.

4. Metals Rally: Silver, Gold, and Copper

Segment Start: [27:05]

• Silver & Gold:
  • Silver up 16% on the week, gold up 4%; best year since 1979.
  • Tim Seymour: "The trend is absolutely your friend… we are in a very copper-intensive environment."
  • Steve Grasso: Bullish both metals, but says silver "flashing warning signs" of volatility.
  • Guy Adami: "Silver and copper… there's going to be a tailwind for the next couple of years."

5. Apple’s AI Shifts

Segment Start: [29:43]

• AI Leadership Change:
  • John Giannandrea (Apple’s AI chief) is stepping down; Microsoft exec to replace.
  • Panel consensus: Apple continues to lag on AI spending, but stock movement suggests market optimism about upcoming changes.
  • Tim Seymour [30:48]: "With Apple it's not easy to buy the valuation. It is easy to buy the… installed base."

6. AI Tech Outlook 2026 — with Dan Ives (Wedbush)

Segment Start: [32:52]

• AI’s Next Wave:
  • Predicts 20-25% upside for big tech and “AI revolution stocks” in 2026.
  • "This is just the beginning of the monetization of the AI revolution." [32:52]
• Nvidia’s Stake in Synopsys:
  • Defends Nvidia’s arms-race strategy of investing in partners/customers.
  • Dan Ives [33:51]: "For every dollar they spend, they're getting back 8 to $10."
• AI Investment Themes:
  • Second and third derivative plays: Software (Palantir, Snowflake), Cybersecurity (Crowdstrike, Palo Alto), Infrastructure (CoreWeave, etc.).
  • On Palantir: "You triple down… I get it, it’s expensive today, but in the next two, three years, I think there’s a trillion dollar market." [35:34]
• Risks:
  • Main risk is “management teams being less aggressive on CapEx" if the market turns sharply, but Ives remains bullish on continued massive tech sector spending.
• OpenAI Systemic Risk:
  • Doesn’t see OpenAI as a single point of failure, compares this period to 1996 (early Internet), not 1999-2000 (bubble).

7. Auto Stocks: GM, Ford, Stellantis

Segment Start: [40:30]

• GM’s Outperformance:
  • All-time highs, up 65% since April.
  • Tim Seymour [41:09]: "This has been one of the most misunderstood stocks… company’s never been run better. I think it's going to $100 next year."
  • Guy Adami: Favors GM over Ford due to better execution on EV strategy.
  • Steve Grasso: Thinks both have room to run; "You can buy this on valuation."

8. Disney’s Box Office and Valuation

Segment Start: [43:06]

• Zootopia 2 Strong Debut:
  • Box office leader but not enough to move the needle for Disney stock, which is rangebound.
  • Karen Feiderman: "Does not make me want to be long Disney nor short. It just… was a fun time."
  • Steve Grasso: "It's got to close above 125. We're nowhere near it."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Guy Adami [09:21]: "It just feels sick to me… when you look at the momentum in the selling, it feels like something else is going on."
• Cosmo Jiang [15:35]: "You want to be greedy when others are fearful… on oversold levels, it's always been a great buying opportunity."
• Dan Ives [32:52]: "This is just the beginning of the monetization of the AI revolution."
• Tim Seymour [41:09]: "Company’s never been run better. I think it's going to $100 next year."
• Steve Grasso [19:56]: "Companies were in better shape inventory-wise than we had feared.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 01:03 | Crypto Markets Fall, MicroStrategy Issues | | 02:47 | Macro Pressures & Bitcoin Not Bouncing on Fed Dovishness | | 11:01 | Cosmo Jiang Interview (Pantera Capital - Crypto) | | 17:38 | Retail Black Friday Recap | | 22:29 | New York City Casinos & Gaming Stock Rally | | 27:05 | Precious Metals Rally: Silver, Gold, Copper | | 29:43 | Apple AI Leadership Shakeup | | 32:52 | AI Outlook 2026 (Dan Ives interview - Wedbush) | | 40:30 | Auto Stock Rally – GM, Ford, Stellantis | | 43:06 | Disney Box Office; Zootopia 2 |

Closing Quick Trades (Final Trades)

[45:50]

• Tim Seymour: "GM. I think it's actually six and a half times next year. Stay there. Stay long."
• Karen Feiderman: "Ulta Beauty reports on Thursday."
• Guy Adami: "Palantir."
• Steve Grasso: "PSX."

Takeaways

• Despite crypto's sharp selloff, panelists doubt it poses systemic risk to broader markets, but see high volatility ahead tied to leverage and ETF flows.
• In equities, resilience appears in retail, gaming, auto, and metals while AI/tech remains the favorite for 2026—especially through software/security "derivatives."
• Dan Ives is emphatic on a “just beginning” AI cycle—with Nvidia, Palantir, and software his picks—discounting bubble fears for now.
• Guests and panel agree: moments of panic in crypto and AI adoption are buying opportunities for institutions and long-term investors.

This summary provides an engaging, content-rich, and timestamped roadmap to the episode’s critical discussions and insights, with direct language reflecting the panel’s own conversational (and occasionally humorous) tone.