CNBC’s "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Broadcom, Oracle Lead Tech Lower, and Pot Stocks Light Up
Date: December 12, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee with Steve Grasso, Courtney Garcia, Julie Beal, Gene Munster, Tim Seymour, Katerina Simonetti, Mike Simonson
Episode Overview
Tonight’s “Fast Money” focuses on the substantial declines in prominent technology names such as Broadcom and Oracle, dissecting whether these individual stories point to larger issues for the tech sector heading into 2026. The panel addresses the so-called “AI spend fatigue,” shifts in investor sentiment, and credit concerns. They also dive into Lululemon’s stock surge after a CEO shakeup, a huge move in cannabis stocks on hopes for rescheduling under a prospective Trump executive order, Chipotle’s consumer challenges, and an outlook for the U.S. housing market in 2026.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Tech Tumbles: Oracle and Broadcom Lead Declines
- Oracle’s Struggles:
- Oracle shares fell after reports of a delay in their AI data center buildout with OpenAI.
- The company disputes any delay, but concerns remain about increasing debt and a possible threat to their investment-grade rating.
- 5-year credit default swaps on Oracle are up 50% in the last month, reflecting a heightened perception of risk (07:11).
- Analyst (via Seema Modi): “These numbers would suggest Oracle is ‘strapped for capital.’” (02:13)
- Broadcom’s Slide:
- Shares plunged over 11% post-earnings due to concerns about margin pressures stemming from costly custom chip buildouts.
- AI Spend Fatigue:
- Steve Grasso: “The AI spend fatigue is out there… I think the market is saying show me something for the money.” (03:48)
- Courtney Garcia: “Broadcom was trading near 40 times forward earnings. If they’re not going to meet a very high bar, you’re going to see some profit taking.” (07:11)
- Key Distinctions:
- Broadcom’s issues seen as valuation-driven, while Oracle faces structural debt risks.
- Julie Beal: “It’s pretty do or die right now for Oracle… their capital structure is much cleaner [at Broadcom].” (08:35)
2. Broader Tech Market Implications
- Contagion Risk:
- Melissa Lee and Gene Munster discuss whether Oracle’s issues could spread to other AI leaders. Munster feels separation is warranted, but Oracle “will be an underperformer… capacity is going to be the governing factor” (11:36).
- Valuation Concerns:
- Consensus: Tech’s momentum depends on proving profitable uses for AI, not just infrastructure buildout.
Notable Quotes:
- Steve Grasso: “The fluff has to come out of the market. But… other technology will start carrying the burden.” (09:50)
- Julie Beal: “The rally has been so low quality and clearly retail driven… Earnings is kind of what matters.” (10:53)
Timestamps:
- Tech decline & Oracle/Broadcom breakdown: [01:03]–[10:53]
3. Actionable Tech Trades & Safety
- Safer Plays in Tech:
- Courtney Garcia: Investors should focus on names with strong cash flow; Oracle lacks this “so I think you’re going to want to look at some of the bigger players.” (16:17)
- Swing Trades:
- Steve Grasso likes Broadcom on weakness; also notes Micron and Intel as interesting charts for memory and safety plays (17:02).
- Small Caps:
- Small-cap rally seen as speculative and retail-driven. Many Russell 2000 names “don’t even have earnings” (Julie Beal, 10:22).
4. Lululemon CEO Shakeup
- Stock Reaction:
- Lulu surged over 9% on news CEO Calvin McDonald is stepping down.
- Panel consensus: The athletic wear space is now highly competitive; Instagram brands have eaten away Lulu's “moat.”
- Panel Commentary:
- Julie Beal: “No one is really going to be able to fix that part of it… it is noisy.” (20:32)
- Gene Munster: “No reason that Lulu can’t copy the playbook… it’s not mission impossible, but they have to do deep soul searching about their true brand identity.” (21:24)
- Steve Grasso: Favoring more established apparel cos. (e.g., Tapestry, Ralph Lauren) — “Marketplace is too fragmented.” (23:25)
Timestamps:
- Lululemon discussion: [19:33]–[23:43]
5. Pot Stocks Surge on Rescheduling Hopes
- Catalyst:
- Cannabis stocks (Trulieve, Green Thumb, Tilray) soared on rumors Trump will reschedule marijuana as a less regulated drug.
- Tim Seymour: “The implications for this are incredible for the industry… would bring in institutional capital. That really would be the holy grail here.” (27:54)
- Investment Strategies:
- Tim sees a path to profitability if tax status changes.
- Steve Grasso cautions about the persistent problem of the illicit market.
- Gene Munster: “I don't think that you have missed your opportunity… If this truly is going to be an executive order… you will probably see a subsequent 50% rally. But I'm willing to wait to see the follow through.” (30:38)
- Courtney Garcia notes risk of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” (31:33)
Timestamps:
- Cannabis stock segment: [25:39]–[32:03]
6. 2026 Market Outlook: Optimism with Caveats
- Morgan Stanley’s Katerina Simonetti:
- “We’re cautiously optimistic… Now the question is, how do we actually use [AI], how do we get profitability out of it? And it’s that show me the money moment.” (32:53)
- Warns that consensus expectations for bullish conditions (Fed cuts, tax refunds) could disappoint, especially if tariffs or rate cuts don’t materialize.
- Advises profit-taking and expanding exposure beyond tech — into industrials, financials, health care, REITs, international markets (35:00–36:41).
- Diversification:
- “Having too much exposure to one theme is never ideal… I really am a believer in the technology long-term, but you have to look beyond that.” — Julie Beal (37:19)
Timestamps:
- Market outlook segment: [32:27]–[38:08]
7. Chipotle: Consumer Squeeze & Tariffs
- Consumer Weakness:
- CEO Scott Boatwright notes 25–34 y.o. consumers (a key Chipotle demo) are especially pressured; “not a cheap stock to own… it still trades almost 30 times forward earnings.” — Courtney Garcia (39:11)
- Steve Grasso: Suggests international expansion could be a solution for labor/pricing pressures.
- Stock Action:
- Chipotle shares off 40% YTD despite opening their 4000th store.
Timestamps:
- Chipotle discussion: [38:08]–[39:54]
8. Housing Market Preview for 2026
- Mike Simonson, Compass:
- Predicts 2026 marks “the start of a next era” in U.S. housing: sales up, prices flat or down, better affordability.
- Withdrawal phenomenon (homes delisted then relisted) represents pent-up demand, not just shadow supply.
- Florida seeing most transaction growth; NY/Chicago constrained by tight inventories.
- Rates in low sixes would support forecast, but even flat rates allow for some improvement.
- Panel:
- Steve Grasso: Favors Lennar, D.R. Horton for homebuilders, Home Depot/Lowe’s for retail exposure.
- Julie Beal: Agrees with focus on companies benefiting from consumer refunds/improved housing market.
Timestamps:
- Housing market segment: [40:38]–[45:33]
9. Final Trades ([45:46]–end)
- Julie Beal: Installed Building Products (homebuilder exposure)
- Gene Munster: RSP (equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF) over IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) — advocating broadening out from tech
- Courtney Garcia: Home Depot
- Steve Grasso: Boeing
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “The AI spend fatigue is out there… The market is saying show me something for the money.” — Steve Grasso (03:48)
- “If [Oracle] can't maintain investment grade, that’s going to cost even more to pay for all of this.” — Melissa Lee (08:05)
- “No one is really going to be able to fix [Lululemon's category competition]… it is noisy.” — Julie Beal (20:32)
- “Schedule 3 [for cannabis] would arguably be the most important moment and catalyst from a DC perspective… that really would bring in institutional capital.” — Tim Seymour (27:54)
- “When something is up, we don’t advocate changing the strategy, but taking a little off the table.” — Katerina Simonetti (35:00)
- “This is supposed to be the year of GenAI, and we still don’t have a lot to show for that.” — Julie Beal (37:19)
- “Affordability improves for the first time in a bunch of years… It’s the start of a new era.” — Mike Simonson (40:53)
Summary Takeaways
- Tech stocks are experiencing growing pains as “AI spend fatigue” and credit concerns hit investor confidence, particularly at Oracle and Broadcom.
- Lululemon’s CEO change triggers optimism but is tempered by market realities: category competition is more intense than ever.
- Cannabis stocks make historic gains on realistic potential for rescheduling, but panel urges caution due to past regulatory disappointments.
- Experts urge investors to diversify, take profits in over-concentrated positions (especially tech), and consider value in underappreciated sectors.
- Housing market expected to improve in terms of sales and affordability in 2026, though price gains likely capped.
- Final trades reflect the panel’s preference for diversification, select opportunities in industrials, home improvement retailers, and cautious optimism in tech-adjacent cyclicals.