CNBC Fast Money – Episode Summary

Air Date: December 5, 2025
Episode Title: Can Oracle Get Shares Back in Rally Mode, and a Trade School on the Netflix/Warner Brothers Deal

Overview

This episode dives into several headline topics shaking the markets:

• Oracle’s upcoming earnings, its roller-coaster stock moves, and the role of AI in its future
• The blockbuster Netflix/Warner Bros. Discovery $72B deal and M&A chess moves in media
• Broader market drivers, including expectations for the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year
• Ulta Beauty's strong earnings, defense stocks, copper’s rally, and a street-high price target on Alphabet

Melissa Lee hosts from the Nasdaq MarketSite with traders Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Courtney Garcia, and Mike Koh, plus a special guest media analyst Tom Rogers and macro perspective from Andrew Davis.

1. Oracle Earnings: Still the Barometer or Just ‘Old Oracle’?

Segment Start: [00:58]

• Background: Oracle reports next week after an explosive September quarter, but has fallen nearly 40% from highs. Investors are asking: can Oracle reignite the rally and address debt concerns tied to AI investments?

Key Discussion Points

• Old Oracle vs. New Oracle
  Tim Seymour sees the stock at an “interesting valuation,” noting that, “It feels a little bit like an Nvidia moment for the market. What I mean by that is it’s an earnings report that I think is a tell more broadly on what's going on in the space.” [02:14]

• Risk/Reward Now More Favorable
  Karen Finerman:

  “The stock has come down a lot. The risk reward has changed dramatically from that 345 or wherever the stock got to.” [04:23]
  She’s cautious but notes that, for new buyers, it’s more attractive than at the highs.

• Debt and Cash Flow in Focus
  Courtney Garcia highlights worries about Oracle’s heavy capex and possible negative free cash flow:

  “They clearly have the backlog. The demand is not their problem. It’s just the build out and what kind of debt they’re going to get in to go into that. And now you’re looking at probably a negative free cash flow for them when you're looking forward.” [05:02]

• Options Market Shows Optimism
  Mike Koh sees options action favoring the upside:

  “The options market does seem to be looking up, not down today at least… Calls significantly outpaced puts today by almost three to one.” [07:32]

• Broader Take:
  Oracle’s results are seen as a “barometer” for trends in AI and cloud, with Broadcom’s earnings also on deck as an important parallel read for tech sentiment.

2. Broadcom, Nvidia, and the New Tech Trade

Segment Start: [08:19]

• Nvidia vs. Broadcom
  Karen: “If you get a really great number for Broadcom, does Nvidia trade up or down?” [09:02]
  The desk debates whether strong numbers from Broadcom would be positive (“the whole pie is still growing”) or open the door to more competition for Nvidia’s dominance.

• Relative Valuation
  Melissa: “Nvidia is cheaper, right?”
  Tim responds: “Yeah, I think Nvidia is cheaper by 10 turns...I think Nvidia’s somewhere around 21. I’m not quite sure where Broadcom is...I think it’s 40.” [09:30-09:44]

3. The Fed Meeting – Dovish Hopes, Markets Riding Momentum

Segment Start: [11:06]

• Macro View: Andrew Davis (Bryn Mawr Trust Advisors)

  “The Fed has a lot of optionality here, particularly with the productivity tailwinds that we’re seeing...Predictability maybe comes back in 2026...the Fed becomes more predictable and then that will allow earnings to drive the market, which is healthy.” [11:18]

• Rate Cut Expectations
  Group consensus: a cut is likely, but the impact is more about sentiment.
  Mike Koh:

  “The cut we’re going to get is in a real sense probably not that meaningful. But I just think in terms of the sentiment that it delivers to the market, it’s sort of a needed tailwind.” [15:29]

• Market Positioning Warning
  Tim Seymour gives a contrarian caution:

  “All I’m hearing from the street right now is a bullish call for 26. Based on Fed dovish, EPS expansion in percentages that we haven’t hit in a long time...It does seem to be a bit of a broken record and we have to be careful about that.” [16:32]

4. Ulta Beauty: Consumers Show Resilience

Segment Start: [18:49]

• Earnings Recap: Ulta jumps 13% to a record on strong earnings and two consecutive guidance raises.
• Consumer Strength:
  Courtney Garcia:

  “I think what’s been really important to see here is we have a consumer that everybody’s questioning…The fact that they raised guidance here, I think is really optimistic...it’s a really positive sign for Ulta companies specifically.” [19:11]

• Management Praise:
  Karen on CEO Keisha Steelman:

  “I love an under-promiser over-deliverer. She is very much of that ilk...This was a really, really excellent quarter.” [19:47]

• Market Implication:
  Mike Koh highlights the XRT retail ETF is up 12% since Nov 20—suggesting maybe the consumer isn’t “as hard up as we have been thinking.” [21:32]

5. Alphabet’s Antitrust Ruling and New Bullish Target

Segment Start: [24:04]

• Breaking News: Judge issues strict “Google shall not” orders around generative AI, but the immediate market reaction is muted.
• Wall Street’s Bullish View:
  Karen: “There was something about the Apple-Google deal...it has to default every year. We were sort of talking about is that better or worse…?” [41:58]
  Courtney:

  “I do think…the fact that they are utilizing chips which are cheaper and is going to increase their profitability probably puts them a step above in the AI race.” [42:21]
  Tim:
  “The TPU protocol is…total validation that it’s taking place outside of that. And I think the story in YouTube is another story...what YouTube is doing to the rest of the media space is frightening to them.” [42:38]

• Pivotal’s $400 Target:
  Alphabet could gain 25% from here, as AI investments and monetization are seen as industry leading.

6. Media Megadeal: Netflix Bids $72B for Warner Bros. Discovery

Segment Start: [32:44]

• Deal Details: Netflix bids $72B for WBD’s studio/streaming arm, plans to spin off cable. Paramount is counter-bidding; break-up fees are massive.
• Tom Rogers’ Analysis:

  “They [Netflix] said there aren’t any must haves out there. They’re bidding as if this is a must have.” [33:57]
  On regulatory risk:
  “The antitrust laws do not stand for the proposition that companies can’t acquire companies and get bigger...even if you just look at streaming viewership...you really don’t get to market share type numbers, which tend to truly bother antitrust regulators.” [37:43]

• Notable Quotes:
  • “I don't think this is over yet. So we will see how this plays out in terms of a superior bid…Paramount come in with another bid.” (Tom Rogers, [37:22])
  • “The risk reward seemed interesting to me. So I am long, and I agree with Tom—I don't think it’s over.” (Karen Finerman, [39:34])
• What’s Next:
  Tim Seymour:

  “If you actually get Netflix to close on this deal, what does this mean for NBC Universal and what does this mean for Paramount? Because ultimately, what the market did to Paramount today is presume that they can’t do this alone. There are more deals to come.” [41:09]

7. Defense Stocks: AeroVironment’s Growth

Segment Start: [27:02]

• AeroVironment CEO Interview:
  CEO Waheed Nawabi says U.S. and allies will need “millions” of drones and that AVAV is ready:

  “There is no one that I know of in the US DoD's history that has produced more drones than us for military applications. We produce the vast majority of the number of drones for the US and our allies. And we are ready.” [28:17]

• Stock Takes:
  Mike Koh prefers CACI over AVAV for valuation reasons; Tim Seymour notes AVAV’s multiple reflects its future growth.

8. Copper Miners Surge – Hard Assets in a Hot Market

Segment Start: [43:47]

• Copper ETFs and Miners Hit Highs:
  Tim Seymour points to copper's multi-pronged thematic drivers: AI, EVs, energy grid, and supply constraints:

  “The copper story is not only one that can be thematic… but we have enormous supply dynamics at work here. Plus I think these miners are run better than they've ever been run.” [44:16]

• Inflation Hedge:
  Courtney:

  “Copper has a demand that’s not going away anytime in the near future and it’s also a good inflation hedge in your portfolio.” [44:49]

9. FINAL TRADES

Segment Start: [45:18]

• Mike Koh: Broadcom – “I think Broadcom does better than $9.5 a share next year.” [45:19]
• Tim Seymour: Oracle – “I think you want to be long.” [45:26]
• Karen Finerman: Boeing – “Got cash flow positive but it's giving some of that back. I like it right here.” [45:30]
• Courtney Garcia: Freeport McMoran – “I think Freeport McMorran is a good way to play [copper].” [45:39]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Oracle’s Earnings as a Market Tell:
  “It’s an earnings report that I think is a tell more broadly on what’s going on in the space.” (Tim Seymour, [02:14])
• On the media deal arms race:
  “They’re bidding as if this is a must have.” (Tom Rogers, [33:57])
• On Fed expectations:
  “All I’m hearing from the street… is a bullish call for 26…It does seem to be a bit of a broken record and we have to be careful about that.” (Tim Seymour, [16:32])

Timestamps to Key Segments

• 00:58 – Oracle earnings and AI debt debate
• 08:19 – Broadcom vs. Nvidia tech trade
• 11:06 – Fed meeting preview and macro & sector outlooks
• 18:49 – Ulta’s earnings, consumer trends
• 24:04 – Alphabet antitrust ruling and price target bump
• 32:44 – Netflix/Warner Bros. mega deal and Tom Rogers’ analysis
• 27:02 – AeroVironment CEO on drone demand and defense stocks
• 43:47 – Copper’s rally and inflation hedges
• 45:18 – Final trades

For full episodes and more actionable trade analysis, visit Fast Money at CNBC.com.