
Shares of Oracle have lost nearly 40% since their last blowout earnings report three months ago. The traders weigh in on what they expect to hear when the company releases its latest results next week. Plus, should WBD shares have popped even higher than they did today? We find out why gains weren’t as strong as Netflix’s bid. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Tim Seymour
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Melissa Lee
Live in the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Reading the Oracle, the software giant has been trying to get its momentum back heading into next week's earnings report. Will the numbers help the stock get back to new highs? We'll debate that and get a read from the options pits and sealing the deal. Warner Brothers has finally picked a partner for its studio and streaming business. But one of our traders has some questions about the stock move. What's on his mind? How you should play the trade now. Plus we count down to the last Fed meeting of the year, shares of all to get a glow up after earnings and mining for gains. What's driving copper companies to record and how to trade the stocks right now. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live in studio. Be at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia and Mike Koh. We start off with the countdown to Oracle earnings next Wednesday night. The company post a blowout quarter in September, briefly hitting a market cap over $1 trillion. But stock has struggled a lot since dropping nearly 40%, shedding more than $300 billion in value. And concerns over how Oracle will finance its AI build have since seen CBS spread soaring sell shares are up almost 8% since Monday, notching their best week since the fiscal Q1 report. So what do you expect to hear from Wednesday's report and what will it signal for the trade? It has been a risk barometer of sorts. So Tim, what do you think?
Tim Seymour
Well, I think for investors that are truly trying to weigh Oracle of a couple of months, actually just old Oracle versus new Oracle and we talk about the difference in the business and the high margin versus the low margin but really there is zero open air in here. And I'm hearing this from a number of analysts around the street and if you look at where the stock has traded back to and good for Dan Nathan who talked about a back and fill in terms of some of those gaps and I think you have a dynamic here where the optionality is, is to the upside for sure. I think the valuation is interesting, I think the company's interesting. I think they're well positioned, I think they're well positioned politically. I think there's a dynamic here though. It feels a little bit like an in video moment for the market. And what I mean by that is it's, it's an earnings report that I think is a tell more broadly on what' going on in the space. And we're all here talking for the last few weeks why some of the Mag 7 hyperscalers aren't trading as they did before. And I think the dynamic here is really, we want to hear from Oracle just how much capex is, how much of a debt chase is there or are they going to kind of meet demand with more debt and capex as it goes, Is this just going to be blind investment? I think they're going to have to and I think they, they do a very good job on their earnings reports about speaking to the market and I think they're going to try to allay some of those fears and I think they probably should.
Melissa Lee
Have we gotten to a point, Karen, where Oracle is an idiosyncratic story? It's more of a story in and of itself as opposed to a barometer.
Karen Finerman
Of AI I think it's both.
So they certainly sort of took on the mantle of being the proxy for the story after that last quarter. But I think that, you know, it's interesting. Will this be the first call without Sapphra cats?
Melissa Lee
Oh, I'm not sure.
Karen Finerman
Well, that was, she was on the last call. She was that. That quarter that was just so stunning. Yeah, that sort of ended up fading somewhat. I don't know if that will be a different kind of call. I don't know if you're new. Do you reset at all? I think they're kind of a rah rah bunch over there in general. But I do think, I mean the stock has come down a lot. The risk reward has changed dramatically from that 345 or wherever the stock got to.
So I don't know, I don't own it. But I was just listening to Timmy on the call, I think. Okay, well, if you didn't you know, if you came to it fresh, Right.
Melissa Lee
Would you buy it here?
Karen Finerman
Yeah, I'm not sure but it's certainly a much better risk reward here, I think.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Than when it was at highs. Of course the other thing though, in terms of an ingredient to the story is where the CDS have gone. I don't know if anybody's thinking that Oracle's going to default, but just in terms of a measure of risk surrounding its debt, I mean it's notable the move that we have seen since, even since June, which is when this whole sort of metamorphosis has happened, it reached high highs not seen since 2009.
Courtney Garcia
And I think that is their biggest concern. Right. I mean they clearly have the backlog. The demand is not their problem. It's just the build out and what kind of debt that they're going to get in to go into that. And now you're looking at probably a negative free cash flow for them when you're looking forward. And you also have. They're really dependent on open air. And recently one of the other things that's come up is there's a lot of competition with Gemini 3.0. The question is are they too dependent on that and do they have this whole build out and then there's too much competition that comes and then all of this debt is not going to be serviced as much as they thought it would. So I think those are the questions that they're going to need to address on the call.
Melissa Lee
Well, that's exactly. I mean that's where that huge plus 359% in backlog was. It was all open air in the end and that was. Yeah, problem.
Tim Seymour
But it's not in the share price anymore.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Tim Seymour
You're not paying up for that at this point. You could be fearful of a bigger enterprise value that that brings the valuation overall down. But you're not paying for something that's not in the price at this point.
Karen Finerman
Just one thing in the last couple of days, the CDS actually come in, it's, it's a little bit cheaper I guess consistent with the stock going up. But I don't know if we were at sort of peak frenzy right in that or.
Well, we'll see. It'll be very interesting, no doubt.
Tim Seymour
I just don't think also we even know exactly what that capex number is. In other words, I think they could dial that back without anybody saying that they really dialed it back. Oh, that's not so bad there.
Karen Finerman
You're talking about Oracle talking about open air.
Tim Seymour
Well I'm talking about Oracle and I'm talking about Stargate and I'm talking about, you know, 175 billion in CapEx that maybe is actually over six years, not four, and maybe it's actually 150. And you know, we, we don't have to go that big and we'll go that big based upon the demand cycle. So that's why I think there's room for a lot of relief here. And I'll just, again, I'll say this about Oracle. They're one of the companies that then when they report they give you the best possible story. I'll just put it that way. I wouldn't call them pom poms, although I think I have.
Melissa Lee
Well, they were pom poms in the last quarter. Yeah, I called them rah rah rah rah. Okay, rah rah, pom poms. You know, Mike, what are your thoughts on Oracle and what are the options telling you at this point?
Mike Koh
Yeah, I mean one of the reasons that you had seen CBS sort of climbing steadily is because so is their debt. I mean this is a company that's increased their net debt by about 7 billion over the course of the last five years. You know, that's looking like probably another 10 easy next year if you're basing that on call it $35 billion worth of CapEx, which by the way is a mere fraction of what some of these other hyperscalers are spending. Right. So when you are trying to measure what the net benefit for Oracle might be, just understand that when you look at Alphabet, you look at Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, you know, their CAPEX numbers are 3x what Oracle's is and in many cases not metas perhaps, but in many cases they are still seeing positive free cash flow. That said, you know, with this big drawdown, the options market does seem to be looking up, not down today at least. So just looking out to the earnings next week, it's implying a move of about 11%, which is not that surprising considering it's actually averaged about 13.5% over the last eight reported quarters. Calls significantly outpaced puts today by almost three to one. And the busiest contracts were the December 12th weekly 250 call options. We saw over 6,800 of those trade for about $2.70 a contract. You know, more than 30 bucks out of the money. Seems like it's a long way, but given the kinds of moves that this thing has seen and a more levered equity will do that you can understand why they're using options to try to make that bet.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. And at the same time we're expecting Oracle next week. We've got Broadcom coming out as well, which is another read on the trade. So it's actually. Even though it's sort of like the off peak season for earnings to major.
Tim Seymour
No, I think, I think these are really important. And also Broadcom has been in play and has also kind of eased off. Although the chart is kind of interesting here. It looks like it's, you know, it's back is just off all time highs. But, but these are, these are barometers, these are pulse checks for where the market is on. What was at least unbridled mentioned that you were going to spend more, you were rewarded. Now it's actually the opposite. But ultimately it really is about those companies company specific. And I think Broadcom is the broadening of the trade away from Nvidia. In fact, I think those numbers are huge.
Karen Finerman
So I'm curious if you get a really great number for Broadcom, does Nvidia trade up or down?
Mike Koh
Hmm.
Karen Finerman
Right. I don't know. I think maybe up because there's strength and demand in the whole space.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Karen Finerman
But one could make an argument that, okay, there's other places to go now and this, you know, lock on the business that Nvidia has is not as much of a lock, but the whole pie is still growing.
Melissa Lee
Nvidia is cheaper, right?
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I think Nvidia is cheaper by 10 turns.
Melissa Lee
Oh, 10 turns. Really?
Tim Seymour
Well, I think Nvidia somewhere around 21. I'm not quite sure where Broadcom is.
Melissa Lee
I think it's 40. 40 I think, I think. Don't quote me on that. I don't know if that's of my head. I'll.
Courtney Garcia
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
What's, what's your answer to Karen's question? Broadcom post blowout numbers. What happens? Demand, let's say demand. Okay. Demand.
Andrew Davis
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
What happens to Nvidia?
Courtney Garcia
I am inclined to say I agree with you and that I think it would be a good thing broader for the space. But I think the issue hasn't been demand in the space. I think people know that that's still there. I think it's the, it's the debt issue I think people are more concerned about. So I think it'll help in a certain respect. But I don't think it's going to allay all of the concerns either.
Melissa Lee
We're all wrong by the way. We had four higher.
Karen Finerman
Yeah, it's way more.
Melissa Lee
Many, many more. 20 turns higher. Yeah, yeah. I Mean, that's a huge valuation discrepancy in terms of Broadcom and Nvidia. There you go.
Tim Seymour
Well, Nvidia has never been a valuation concern and if it is, you get out of here in the wrong business because it's not about that valuation. It's a multiple that people really believe they're going to grow at that level going forward. That valuation right now is well inside the ten year historical.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, broader markets closing out the week with gains but off their highs of the session. The S and P and Dow both less than 1% from records. The the moves come after the latest read on inflation. A September reading delayed by the shutdown came in about in line with expectations. All this ahead of this year's final Fed decision next week. For more, let's bring in Andrew Davis, Director of Macro Economic Research at Bryn Mawr Trust Advisors. Andrew, great to have you with us.
Andrew Davis
Thanks for having me. Great.
Melissa Lee
In terms of the Fed meeting, I don't know what you expect and maybe it's more important to think out till next year. We're going to get a new Fed chair, we're going to sort of maybe have a shadow Fed. Things will be a lot different.
Andrew Davis
Yeah, I think that's the main thing. Look for 2026, we're looking for a slow stretch expansion. We think that the Fed has a lot of optionality here, particularly with the productivity tailwinds that we're seeing. So I don't think it'll be too much of a surprise in this dot plot post GFC world that we live in whatever's priced in going into the weekend. The Fed usually delivers, I expect that. But I do think that the dot plot might reveal some clues about what the committee's thinking as a whole. Ultimately, I think predictability maybe comes back in 2026, maybe fits and starts, but the Fed becomes more predictable and then that will allow earnings to drive the market, which is healthy.
Melissa Lee
I mean, in terms of the dot plot, it'll be interesting to see who is where. But it also may reveal in terms of when we get, you know, sort of the readout, who is where in terms of divisions in the Fed. And so, you know, if you have a Fed chair who is gung ho on cutting interest rates, you may not have the, the committee backing that necessarily. So it sounds, it feels like there could be more volatility at the market, might not be pricing in next year.
Andrew Davis
Well, I think that the market will live with this meeting next week. I think that.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Andrew Davis
We all understand that the Fed is a consensus institution. So whoever you put in there is going to build consensus. The dot plots aren't promises and I think that they'll be working towards neutral, towards 3% over time and I think that that would be constructive and healthy for the market.
Karen Finerman
So where do you think they're trying to get to?
Andrew Davis
Yeah, I think that they take one December markets let them do that and then we see them cutting maybe in that April window and then one more time and they're at neutral. We think neutral is right around 3% so they're not too far off that and I think that they're just incrementally going to maintain that bias.
Tim Seymour
Andrew, market breadth is actually I think been impressive over the last few weeks and I think it sets up very nicely for 26 where I'm hearing a lot of the strategists from the street echo some of the same themes. But talk about some elements of where we're going to see earnings. Just curious what sectors you want to lean into because banks look great consumer and retail has been very resilient for the K shaped economy. We know text tech. Where are you, where are you leaning?
Andrew Davis
Yeah, I agree Tim. I think it's a healthy backdrop, particularly some of the wind that's come out of the sales around. I heard you all talking about Oracle but look, I think that where we want to focus is this value down trade. The consumer is not a monolith so it's definitely bifurcated. Earnings calls just this week reiterated that Kroger saying middle income shoppers acting more like lower income at this point. So we want to look at value oriented plays and then I think in the trade that we're moving towards incrementally stage two out of the chips, maybe into the plumbing, into the picks and shovels. And so I think those are two areas that have our attention for 2026.
Melissa Lee
How about software in terms of moving away from the trade, away from the chips?
Andrew Davis
Yeah, well I think it's hard to have a view there. I do like that valuations have come in and if you take a broader lens at the US tech sector, overall valuations really haven't drifted higher. It's been earnings driven. We look at the earnings growth profile for 2026, healthy kind of low double digits growth and if the Fed kind of gets out of the way of the market macro starts driving it a little less earnings can, can drive the market. Yeah. And I think that would be constructive.
Melissa Lee
Andrew, great to see you. Thank you.
Andrew Davis
Thanks for having me.
Melissa Lee
What do you think happens next week?
Tim Seymour
I think The Fed is going to deliver a cut where they're trying to stress that, you know, a PC, which we could talk about from today, but was largely could have been hot if you wanted it hot, if you believe 2% is really a target. But I think it's a Fed that is divided, and I think that will be some of the messaging part of the market's rally over the last three weeks is some of the most important people in the Fed that are not Jerome Powell have made it clear that the cut was coming and that if anything, the vote could be tilting that way. Every strategist is basically saying their upside and the delta to their call to the upside is a function of Fed dovish. There's no surprise, but I think there's still a lot of. We're speaking of optionality. I mean, I just think there's. There's so much around the Fed here for next year.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Mike.
Mike Koh
Yeah. I mean, I think actually it was Tim that has been saying it all along. I mean, the cut we're going to get is in a real sense probably not that meaningful. But I just think in terms of the sentiment that it delivers to the market, it's sort of a needed tailwind. And, you know, I actually am in favor of it here.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Courtney?
Courtney Garcia
Yeah. I mean, I think at this point it's very likely. I mean, it's not 100% certain that a cut is happening. I think the question is, is it a dovish cut or is it a hawkish cut? I think that's what people are going to want to see. But ultimately, I don't know how much that matters because we are going to have a new Fed chair next year. So even if there aren't those future cuts that the markets want, those probably will happen at a certain point in time. So I think the cuts coming and I don't think there's anything that's going to scare the markets.
Karen Finerman
I agree with you. I think it's the rhetoric. So even if there wasn't a cut, I think it's still the rhetoric. Right. We say, all right, we're not cutting this time, but, you know, it's looking like we should or something like that. But I don't know if this is already priced in. Is the market in the market why we are we front run the cut and a dovish, dovish rhetoric from.
Tim Seymour
If one is a contrarian here, though, and sometimes we all pick our places to be one. I just, I feel like all I'm hearing from the street right now is a bullish call for 26.
Melissa Lee
Yes.
Tim Seymour
Based on Fed dovish EPS expansion in percentages that we haven't hit in a long time. And I'm talking about 12 to 25%. Pick your strategist. And again, there's a fed predication, there's a resilient consumer. There's nothing changes in the trade. And it just, you know, it does seem to be a bit of a broken record and we have to be careful about that.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Coming up, Ulta's beautiful day. The cosmetic retailer putting up glamorous gains on raised guidance. Just how much this name can glow here next. And a high flying defense stock taking a dip today. CEO Wahid Nawabi joins us for more on where his company is heading to Avav Air Environment right after this.
Steve Sedgwick
This is Fast MONEY with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
Tim Seymour
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Melissa Lee
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Steve Sedgwick
Edu.
Executive Decisions is the new podcast from CNBC where I ask powerful leaders about their decisions that changed everything. I'm Steve Sedgwick and here's the CEO of Siemens Energy, Christian Brugg. Business leaders should not stay quiet in a world which is super complex. We sit in a privileged position and we have to use that to ensure that society remains prosperous, stable, successful. That's Executive Decisions with me, Steve Sedgwick. Get it wherever you're listening to this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to fast money. Ulta popping almost 13%, closing at a record after last night's earnings report. The beauty retailer handily beating top and bottom line estimates, raising its full year outlook for a second consecutive quarter. On the call, CEO Keisha Steelman said they were pleased with Black Friday and Cyber Monday performance and are ready for the shopping season. Shares are up 38% this year. Courtney, you flagged us on the call today.
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I think what's been really important to see here is we have a Consumer that everybody's questioning. Right. Like, we don't know, is the consumer doing well? Are they not doing well? Clearly certain segments are and aren't, but people are having to choose where they're spending money. So the fact that they raised guidance here, I think is really optimistic. They're showing we're so far having a good holiday season. They're optimistic people are going to keep spending there. And I think all of that is actually a really positive sign for Ulta companies specifically, as we look forward.
Melissa Lee
They did talk about how beauty brands are going to start raising prices to account for tariff effects. And so you got to wonder, like, what, what that impact will be on a tube of lipstick or a jar of cream and what that impact will be on the consumer.
Karen Finerman
And also how to work her way through the income statement in that some of their costs may go higher. Right now there are blended costs, so it's actually a bit lower. So it could end up being a little bit higher. However, that being said, Keisha Steelman is fantastic. I love an under promiser over deliverer. She is very much of that ilk. Her last conference call was so great. She was trying to say it's not as great as, you know, we got to still be cautious. No, I mean, this was a really, really excellent quarter. I mean, the higher average ticket, higher number of transactions they did, it was a big spending year. So. So their expenses were actually higher, but they raised, they still raised their guidance. We're going to have, I think it's in March, their investor day. She sounded very confident about their business.
It's not cheap, but it's not crazy expensive, particularly for a company that's been executing as well as they've been gaining.
Melissa Lee
Share across markets in terms of mass as well as luxury.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, good for Karen because she's definitely been in this name and I think she's. She's been in this pretty tactically too, even though I know she's been it long term. There's another beauty name out there that I've always liked, el, which is actually outperforming Ulta this year and it's a lot more expensive. But. But the message from Ulta is good for Yale, which is that beauty is alive and well and strong. And after a little bit of a hiccup and some concern about Asia, some of these trends are back. EL also has slightly new channels, distributions, a big Amazon presence, and, you know, 11 to 12 brands on Amazon that are really working, including on TikTok, and a dynamic where there's a change in management, which people feel actually is good for this company. That needs some change.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Mike, are you in the beauty trade?
Mike Koh
I'm not. You know, I had a pairs trade on where I was actually long Elf, short Estee a while back ago. I mean, it's interesting that Tim brings this up. I mean, Elf has been very hard hit and this is, this is a name that's actually growing the top and bottom line significantly faster than, than Estee Lauder is. It's not terribly cheap even given the discount here, but this might be one where one could consider kicking the tires, you know, and on the retail trade, just generally since November 20th, you know, XRT is up about 12%. That's actually one of the strongest two week periods that it has seen since it was introduced 20 years ago. This is a really remarkable boost that we've seen in a lot of retail names. And I think it speaks a little bit to what Courtney was just talking about, that maybe the consumer is not as hard up as we have been thinking.
Melissa Lee
We do have a news alert here. We've got a trio of new additions to the S&P 500. Carvana Building Materials Co. CRH&H vac maker Comfort Systems will enter the benchmark on December 22, replacing LKQ, Solstice, Advanced Materials and Mohawk. So take a look at those pops in the after hours sessions. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
Steve Sedgwick
Netflix rolling out a $72 billion red carpet for Warner Brothers discovery as the media bidding war reaches a climax. But can a deal get done? And how do you play the stocks now? A deep dive next. But first, we're from the Reagan Defense Forum with the CEO of an upstart defense company with a parabolic chart. He'll break down what's next for this high flying aerospace stock. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.
Steve Sedgwick
Edu Executive Decisions is the new podcast from CNBC where I ask powerful leaders about their decisions that changed everything. I'm Steve Sedgwick and here's the CEO of Siemens Energy, Christian Bruck. Business leaders should not stay quiet in a world which is super complex. We are sit in a privileged position and we have to use that to ensure that society remains prosperous, stable, successful. That's Executive Decisions with me, Steve Sedgwick. Get it wherever you're listening to this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got breaking news on the government's antitrust case against Alphabet. Eamon Javors has got the latest on this. Eamon.
Steve Sedgwick
Yeah, Melissa, that's right. This is the Google search case that's been proceeding along in the US District Court in the District of Columbia. This is final judgment now from the judge on what the remedies should be. Remember, a long time ago now the judge found that Google was a monopolist on these issues. And now what we're seeing is the judge issuing final judgment on what the remedies should be. And this is a problem for Google in the sense that there's a lot of paragraphs in this document that begin, google shall not. Google shall not. Google shall not, including Google, shall not take certain actions around generative AI. Now, Google had wanted to keep a wide range of options available to it on how it could price and package its generative AI products. The judge here appears to be limiting this. Now, I say all this, Melissa, with the big caveats that I'm not a lawyer and I'm not a technologist, and this is a 30, 35 page, complicated document that just was filed a couple of moments ago. But in looking through it, it looks like what had been happening here was both sides were arguing around the margins of a lot of technical aspects of how these remedies against Google would be imposed. And now we're getting the decision from the judge on how those are going to be imposed going forward. A little too early for me certainly, to say, you know, whether this is tighter or looser than what Google expected. Certainly the outcome was going to be to the negative for Google, given that they'd already lost this case. But they'd been fighting about a lot of the definitional things, a lot of the technical applicability things, and now the judge has made his ruling. Melissa, back over to you.
Melissa Lee
Thank you. Amen. Amy Javers from the White House, again, this is, you know, 40 pages worth of documents to go through. But at the same time, Google is just sort of getting hitting its stride when it comes to the notion that it is a viable AI player here with Gemini 3. And here any sort of Google shall not, something concerning generative AI may be perceived negatively, at least initially.
Karen Finerman
Maybe we got to see.
Melissa Lee
I got to see you guys.
Karen Finerman
And it's going to. This will be one that's slow and hard to read because I won't fully understand some of it. So I don't know. I would think though, if it were something really terrible, we would have seen the stock trade down more initially. Some AI breeding of.
Melissa Lee
Right, right.
Tim Seymour
I don't want to front run. We're going to have a great conversation on Netflix. But. But you know, some of the upgrades that I sense are coming from Google are not just Gemini, but they're related to how what's going on in the media space is that YouTube is stealing people's lunch again.
Melissa Lee
The stock is down just about half a percent right now. Meanwhile, shares of defense technology company AeroVironment are down over 30% from their October highs, but still up 80% this year. Our Morgan Brennan is sitting down with CEOAbi at the 2025 Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California. Morgan.
Hey, Melissa. That's right. And Waheed, it's great to be here with you.
Steve Sedgwick
Welcome. Thank you. Great to be with you.
Melissa Lee
All right, so it's been a big year after a number of big years for aerovironment. But just earlier this week you basically said that you have plans over the next three to five years to double the size of the company.
Steve Sedgwick
How? Well, we have tremendous organic growth. We have built our company precisely for this type of a moment in situation. We all know that China is a serious threat to the United States and the free world globally. We all know that our defense industry and our industrial base needs to revamp. We built our company purpose built for this moment and for this type of a situation, we have built the portfolio. We've got the production capacity, we've got the technology that is already being deployed and it's validated and it works. And we've got the ability to scale and produce thousands and tens of thousands of them, even hundreds of thousands of them. So we're positioned incredibly well. And I think it's very likely for us to have this, achieve this in the next three to five years.
Melissa Lee
And of course, you are in the business of unmanned and autonomous weapon systems. Drones, US army just a couple of weeks ago basically came out and said that they're looking to acquire this, according to reports, to acquire 1 million drones over the next two to three years. And they're looking to partner with companies that are focused on commercial applications as well. What does that mean for aerovironment?
Steve Sedgwick
So that's music to our ears in many ways. First of all, we do need millions of these assets and devices. There is no one that I know of in the US DoD's history that has produced more drones than us for military applications. We produce the vast majority of the number of drones for the US and our allies. And we are ready. We've scaled production before. We've done this multiple times in our history, and we are ready to actually do that again. We're building another factory currently in Salt Lake City for our Switchblade family of products. It's a very flexible factory that we can switch products to products and model to model. So we're ready. And it's something that is desperately needed for United States national security and for our allies.
Melissa Lee
When you talk about ramping production, how much are we talking about?
Steve Sedgwick
It really all depends on our customers. We are ready to run very quickly. It depends on who you ask. Some customers want thousands and some tens of thousands. And even the highest levels, we're talking about millions of units. It depends on what kind of conflict we have and what size and what scope. Drones come in all shapes and size and forms. The one that really is going to be the predominant area of focus is going to be the type of drones that we make. This referred to as Group 1, 2 and 3. Because the economics and its functionality and its performance is unmatched. The ROI and the return on that investment is significantly better. The first point of person view or FPV drones that you see in Ukraine, that is a much, much, much smaller, smaller portion of the overall focus and need because that's not the kind of conflict that we're going to be with China. It's going to be a much longer distance, is a lot more sophisticated capabilities, a lot more autonomy, a lot more range, a lot more firepower.
Melissa Lee
So how to think about the international sales growth that's happening for Aero environment, especially if you do see, and I realize we have talks going on, we don't know where that ultimately leads, but we do see peace stocks in Ukraine.
Steve Sedgwick
Look, we've said this multiple times. I have repeatedly say the last two years we have already pivoted away from Ukraine. It's going to be less than 5% of our revenue this year. We've delivered thousands of systems. We continue to deliver, but it's a much smaller portion portion of our revenue. We already export to 55 different countries on our own. With the acquisition of Blue Halo, that is actually over 100 countries, all US allies. So we have a tremendous footprint and also potential to increase our exports even more in the next three to five years. I envision our international demand to actually continue to accelerate. There's a lot of focus on US DoD and the needs that we have in the homeland. But our allies needed as much, if not more. And I think that our opportunity to capitalize on some of that is significant specifically because we have the technology, it is proven, it is scaled already and we have the capacity to produce even more.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, drones and also counter drone capabilities as well. With that Blue Halo acquisition that you and I were talking about right here a year ago, waheed Nawabi of AeroVironment, it's great to speak with you. Thank you for joining me here at the Reagan National Defense Forum. And Mal I'll send it back to you in studio. Morgan, thanks. Morgan Brennan, Michael, where are you in the defense trade?
Mike Koh
Caci, you know, Aero Environment is growing. It's great. You know, the valuation is a little bit rich for me. I think at this point. CACI has, you know, they're in multiple different areas there in cybersecurity, command and control, things like that. It's trading around 20 times forward and growing, you know, at probably, you know, we'll call it two thirds of the pace that Aero Environment is. So just on a valuation basis, I think that's where I'd put my money back. That's where we have put our money.
Melissa Lee
I know you've been following aviation years now.
Tim Seymour
This is a stock we've talked on in the early days of fast money. And boy, the growth here is extraordinary. If you look on also at their AB Halo, their software segment, it's growing low single digits, but that has the capacity to be a massive mover. What's clear from both how the street is viewing the company and the investor base is the expectations that the multiple you traded on yesterday are significantly higher tomorrow because they're going to triple sales between last year and next year based upon more or less consensus out there on the street. So it's tough to buy the valuation. It's easy to buy the company.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, media M and A madness. Netflix rolling out the red carpet for Warner Brothers discovery. But will a deal actually get done? We'll dive in with media legend Tom Rogers right after this.
Steve Sedgwick
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the Go Follow the Fast Money podcast.
Tim Seymour
We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks ending the week in the green after the last, albeit delayed, inflation reading of the year. The dow gaining about 100 points. The S and P and Nasdaq both locking in their fourth straight winning days. All three indices posting their second straight positive weeks. Meanwhile so far dropping more than 6% today after announcing a $1.5 billion stock sale late yesterday. The online banking company has still nearly doubled its market cap this year. Well, shares of Warner Brothers Discovery ending near their highs of the day. The company announced before the bell that it had agreed to sell its studio and streaming businesses to Netflix for $72 billion in spin off its cable unit into a separate company. The stock took a leg higher midday after a CNBC report that rivaled bidder Paramount's guidance was considering taking its own offer directly to shareholders. For more on all of this, CNBC contributor and founder Tom Rogers joins us now. He's also senior advisor to Versant Media, our soon to be parent company. Tom, great to see you again.
Tom Rogers
Great to be here, Melissa, thanks.
Melissa Lee
There is so much to get into here, but first of all, what do you think Netflix is thinking with this very aggressive offer and what sort of mix of offense and defense do you think this is for Netflix to make such a big, bold bid?
Tom Rogers
Well, there's been very little that has surprised me about Netflix's growth plans over the years. This one did surprise me. I figured they'd be in there, take a look. But they said there aren't any must haves out there. They're bidding as if this is a must have. And while I don't believe it is a must have forum, they certainly get a lot out of it. The Warner studios, both movie and tv, are hitting on all cylinders right now and they can certainly monetize those better than anybody in the in the streaming era. HBO stands for quality. Certainly a combined Netflix HBO offering is going to give them even more substantial consumer power relative to.
Engagement and viewing engagement, which is the key metric that they believe they should be measured on these days. So they get a lot out of it. And of course, on the defense side, whether this transaction goes through or not, keeping it out of the hands of competitors permanently or some period of time certainly is an effective strategy as well.
Melissa Lee
If you were, you know, on the WBD board or your WBD shareholder, Tom, which way would you go? Which bid is superior in your view and why?
Tom Rogers
Well, I think they got, they took this bid because it was the highest bid. It is a cash offer with a little bit of Netflix stock, which obviously somebody like me who's been a Netflix bull believes is valuable currency. Plus the three to four dollars that they would attribute to the cable networks when those are spun off to shareholders, puts this a bit over $30 a share as it is. Which if it's true that Paramount bid $30 cash, would make the bid. They took the superior bid. Moreover, they got one hell of a breakup fee. This may be the biggest breakup fee in history at 5.8 billion do. I thought Paramount's move of putting forward a $5 billion breakup fee was going to be the. The head turner that might have turned it in Paramount's direction. But Netflix coming up with a bigger breakup fee, Warner obviously looked at that and probably also looked at the fact that Netflix is a very.
Sound company financially. Paramount less so. So if things get rocky over the next year and a half in the economy and something untoward happens in the media industry, Netflix is probably better able to weather it than Paramount is.
Karen Finerman
Thomas, Karen, thanks for being on so that. The cash bid though, if I were looking at that and also weighing the probability of a Paramount deal getting antitrust approval over the likelihood of a Netflix deal, I think that would sort of weigh in favor of the Paramount deal. Even though you could point to a couple things like maybe, maybe discovery trade's better and then that package is better. But. And the breakup fee. But this certain. This. The higher certainty. I would think there isn't certainty for sure. The higher likelihood would seem to me to be very material.
Tom Rogers
Well, it wouldn't surprise me at all as much as I was surprised by how aggressive Netflix was to see Paramount come in with another bid. I don't think this is over yet. So we, we will, we will see how this plays out in terms of superior bid. In terms of regulatory approval.
I think the Netflix deal may be in better shape from a regulatory point of view than. Than people think. One, I understand the company has a decent relationship with the administration. I don't think you could characterize this as a company that's on the outs with the administration. Moreover, when, when this got into politics, say with the AT&T acquisition of Warner highly centered around CNN, Netflix isn't going to be the ultimate owner of CNN here. So there's less reason for that kind of politics to play out. I think, you know, the antitrust laws do not stand for the proposition that companies can't acquire companies and get bigger. What they're really about is in a relevant market, does somebody get a market share that is so big that it gets them undue market power? And I think what Netflix has going for it is defining the market here, whether it's all television viewership, which they're at about at 8% or even if you just look at streaming viewership where they're at about 25% but HBO Max is viewership is so small right now, you really don't get to market share type numbers, which tend to truly bother antitrust regulators. You look at the ad market and it's an infinitesimal share on a combined basis of the ad market. So I think they probably would get more scrutiny than a Paramount deal would. But I'm not sure that it has the degree of uncertainty attached to it that many have suggested.
Melissa Lee
Tom, always great to see you. Have a great weekend.
Tom Rogers
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
Great to be on Tom Rogers. All right, so Tim is in wbd. Karen just got in and we were talking about it on the call, right. And Tim was asking Karen questions like, why isn't wbd, as I always do.
Tim Seymour
When I want to get smart, I ask Karen questions.
Melissa Lee
And then you delved into it and you decided, you know what? I'm going into it just, you know.
Karen Finerman
The arb in me, which is where I first came to Wall street, thought, all right, this is sort of an interesting setup. Tom, you know, alludes to the fact that maybe Paramount isn't done. I think that is likely. If I were they, I would sort of certainly consider. There's this story, you know, would they consider going directly shareholders? Yeah, why not give it one more try? So the risk reward seemed interesting to me. So I am long and I agree with Tom. I don't think it's over.
Tim Seymour
Well, yesterday we were talking about this. I believed it wasn't over either. I thought there was going to be another bid from Netflix. I just didn't know there was going to be a deal done. I thought there was going to be a bit of a tug of war for an asset that we already knew there was a $30 cash bid out there. So I'm long WBD. I'm fine with that position. I mean, I think I'm, you know, that that trade has worked out nicely. But the call options that I bought for January, I felt like we were going to get some outcome. I still think those options are going to close in the money. What's fascinating about this deal is that if you actually get Netflix to close on this deal, what does this mean for NBC Universal and what does this mean for Paramount? Because ultimately what the market did to Paramount today is presume that they can't do this alone. There are more deals to come. And I ultimately think it puts Disney in a really interesting position because if the model is that streaming plus some, some, some, some other linear and cable assets are not a bad package to have, I mean, that's where Disney is. And I've said this for a while for, for a stock that's done zero I think this ultimately values the assets higher and this seems like it's been a sum of the parts game.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Alphabet shares jumping on a big new bullish call why Pivotal Research is all in on this tech giant. That's next. Plus reminding for gains with Copper's big move higher means for the market right after this.
Welcome back to Fast Money. Pivotal Research with our call of the day raising its price target on Alphabet to a street high of $400 a share. The firm saying Alphabet is winning everywhere from market share gains from its TPU processors to its best in the business ability to monetize its latest Gemini AI model. The price target implies about 25% upside from today's close and and a market cap of over $4.8 trillion. Karen, you're reading through that ruling that just came out that Eamon delivered to us and have sort of a little bit more information about AI when it comes to this ruling.
Karen Finerman
Well there was something about we know the whole thing about the Apple deal, the Apple Google deal and this was saying it has to default to every year. We were sort of talking about is that better or worse than I don't.
Melissa Lee
Have every to renegotiate the deal potentially every year as but it's not exclusive.
Karen Finerman
Yeah but then there's the other part of the, the advertising monopoly which I don't know what that is yet.
Courtney Garcia
Yeah that's definitely still going to be an overhang for Google is the antitrust. But I do think on the positive for them the fact that they are utilizing chips which are cheaper and is going to increase their profitability probably put them a step above in the air race. That I think is the story here and that's what I think people are are focusing on which has been a positive for Google.
Tim Seymour
Look, the TPU protocol is something that would no one was talking about or at least we weren't talking about this. I wasn't talking about this six months ago. The fact that this is it's more significant probably for the Nvidia's of the world and the other players in the space and what this could mean but for Google it's total validation and it's total validation that that it's, it's taking place outside of that. And I think the story in YouTube is another story that has been topical over the last couple of days and the fact that the way streaming and content is made I think there is a huge advantage and what YouTube is doing to the rest of the media space is is I think Frightening to them.
Mike Koh
MIKE yeah, I mean we own it, we like it. I obviously have to read through this report that just came out, but I mean, I think a lot of people dismissed them on the AI side and they really shouldn't have since, you know, DeepMind back 2015 and they have a lot of other businesses which some of the other AI plays do not.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, copper miners surging this week. How to trade the names and what the move tells us about the broader economy. That is next. More fast Money into.
Welcome back to Fast Money. Let's get to our move of the day. Global X Copper Miners ETF hitting an all time high today, up almost 6% this year. Builds on last week's gains when The ETF gained 10%. Miners like BHP Freeport, McMoRan Tech Resources and Southern Copper seeing outsized gains since Monday. The underlying metal also at records copper trading on the London Metal Exchange that is up 33% so far this year. Citi lifting its price outlook on the industrial metal. You've been talking about copper, BHP specifically.
Tim Seymour
TIM yeah, in fact all those names. I'm long bhp, I'm long Rio Tinto and Southern Copper in Ido. I'm long Freeport myself. And I just, I feel the copper story is not only one that can be thematic and all the data center and energy and, and then there's the power grid that needed to be built out anyway, but we have enormous supply dynamics at work here. Plus I think these miners are run better than they've ever been run. Plus I think the underlying copper price has an investment merit to it in terms of just hard assets and certainly industrial metals to follow the precious metals. So I think we're going higher.
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I mean I completely agree with that. I think whether you're looking at AI, you're looking at EV is just the general grid that needs to be built out. Copper has a demand that's not going away anytime in the near future and it's also a good inflation hedge in your portfolio. Like we just saw this PC report which Inflation is below 3%. It's great, but it was an acceleration slightly and so people are questioning what that's going to be. That can be a way of hedging against that.
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades.
Time for the final trade.
Mike Koh
MIKE co. Yeah, I think Broadcom does better than nine and a half bucks a share next year. That works out to a peg ratio of 1.
Tim Seymour
Tim I'll take that upside ball Mike was talking about in Oracle. I think you want to be long.
Karen Finerman
KAREN yes. So Boeing we got some good news beginning of the week. Got cash flow positive but it's giving some of that back. I like it right here.
Melissa Lee
We talked about Copper earlier.
Courtney Garcia
I think Freeport McMorran is a good way to play this.
Melissa Lee
Thanks for watching Fast. Have a great weekend. Mad Money starts right now.
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Air Date: December 5, 2025
Episode Title: Can Oracle Get Shares Back in Rally Mode, and a Trade School on the Netflix/Warner Brothers Deal
This episode dives into several headline topics shaking the markets:
Melissa Lee hosts from the Nasdaq MarketSite with traders Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Courtney Garcia, and Mike Koh, plus a special guest media analyst Tom Rogers and macro perspective from Andrew Davis.
Segment Start: [00:58]
Old Oracle vs. New Oracle
Tim Seymour sees the stock at an “interesting valuation,” noting that, “It feels a little bit like an Nvidia moment for the market. What I mean by that is it’s an earnings report that I think is a tell more broadly on what's going on in the space.” [02:14]
Risk/Reward Now More Favorable
Karen Finerman:
“The stock has come down a lot. The risk reward has changed dramatically from that 345 or wherever the stock got to.” [04:23]
She’s cautious but notes that, for new buyers, it’s more attractive than at the highs.
Debt and Cash Flow in Focus
Courtney Garcia highlights worries about Oracle’s heavy capex and possible negative free cash flow:
“They clearly have the backlog. The demand is not their problem. It’s just the build out and what kind of debt they’re going to get in to go into that. And now you’re looking at probably a negative free cash flow for them when you're looking forward.” [05:02]
Options Market Shows Optimism
Mike Koh sees options action favoring the upside:
“The options market does seem to be looking up, not down today at least… Calls significantly outpaced puts today by almost three to one.” [07:32]
Broader Take:
Oracle’s results are seen as a “barometer” for trends in AI and cloud, with Broadcom’s earnings also on deck as an important parallel read for tech sentiment.
Segment Start: [08:19]
Nvidia vs. Broadcom
Karen: “If you get a really great number for Broadcom, does Nvidia trade up or down?” [09:02]
The desk debates whether strong numbers from Broadcom would be positive (“the whole pie is still growing”) or open the door to more competition for Nvidia’s dominance.
Relative Valuation
Melissa: “Nvidia is cheaper, right?”
Tim responds: “Yeah, I think Nvidia is cheaper by 10 turns...I think Nvidia’s somewhere around 21. I’m not quite sure where Broadcom is...I think it’s 40.” [09:30-09:44]
Segment Start: [11:06]
Macro View: Andrew Davis (Bryn Mawr Trust Advisors)
“The Fed has a lot of optionality here, particularly with the productivity tailwinds that we’re seeing...Predictability maybe comes back in 2026...the Fed becomes more predictable and then that will allow earnings to drive the market, which is healthy.” [11:18]
Rate Cut Expectations
Group consensus: a cut is likely, but the impact is more about sentiment.
Mike Koh:
“The cut we’re going to get is in a real sense probably not that meaningful. But I just think in terms of the sentiment that it delivers to the market, it’s sort of a needed tailwind.” [15:29]
Market Positioning Warning
Tim Seymour gives a contrarian caution:
“All I’m hearing from the street right now is a bullish call for 26. Based on Fed dovish, EPS expansion in percentages that we haven’t hit in a long time...It does seem to be a bit of a broken record and we have to be careful about that.” [16:32]
Segment Start: [18:49]
“I think what’s been really important to see here is we have a consumer that everybody’s questioning…The fact that they raised guidance here, I think is really optimistic...it’s a really positive sign for Ulta companies specifically.” [19:11]
“I love an under-promiser over-deliverer. She is very much of that ilk...This was a really, really excellent quarter.” [19:47]
Segment Start: [24:04]
“I do think…the fact that they are utilizing chips which are cheaper and is going to increase their profitability probably puts them a step above in the AI race.” [42:21]
Tim:
“The TPU protocol is…total validation that it’s taking place outside of that. And I think the story in YouTube is another story...what YouTube is doing to the rest of the media space is frightening to them.” [42:38]
Segment Start: [32:44]
“They [Netflix] said there aren’t any must haves out there. They’re bidding as if this is a must have.” [33:57]
On regulatory risk:
“The antitrust laws do not stand for the proposition that companies can’t acquire companies and get bigger...even if you just look at streaming viewership...you really don’t get to market share type numbers, which tend to truly bother antitrust regulators.” [37:43]
“If you actually get Netflix to close on this deal, what does this mean for NBC Universal and what does this mean for Paramount? Because ultimately, what the market did to Paramount today is presume that they can’t do this alone. There are more deals to come.” [41:09]
Segment Start: [27:02]
“There is no one that I know of in the US DoD's history that has produced more drones than us for military applications. We produce the vast majority of the number of drones for the US and our allies. And we are ready.” [28:17]
Segment Start: [43:47]
“The copper story is not only one that can be thematic… but we have enormous supply dynamics at work here. Plus I think these miners are run better than they've ever been run.” [44:16]
“Copper has a demand that’s not going away anytime in the near future and it’s also a good inflation hedge in your portfolio.” [44:49]
Segment Start: [45:18]
For full episodes and more actionable trade analysis, visit Fast Money at CNBC.com.