← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Checking In On The Housing Market… And The Future of Pharma & Health Care 2/18/25
00:43:36
A check in on the housing market, as builder sentiment drops to a 5-month low. The concerns they have over looming tariffs, and the latest results out of one of the top players in the space. Plus Pharma in focus, as the country’s health agencies deal with funding cuts and personnel changes. How industry execs are positioning, and what billionaire investor Mark Cuban is saying about the future of the space. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:01]
Dominic Cheung
What counts most to you?
- [00:03]
Julie Beal
Maybe it's spending more time with the ones you love.
- [00:06]
Dominic Cheung
Or maybe doing more of what you love to do. The key to being rich is knowing what counts.
- [00:14]
Carter Worth
At Edward Jones, our dedicated financial advisors are people you can count on for.
- [00:20]
Dominic Cheung
Financial strategies to help support what truly matters to you.
- [00:24]
Carter Worth
Let's find your rich Edward Jones Member, sipc.
- [00:31]
Dominic Cheung
What if your limited inventory had unlimited potential?
- [00:35]
Carter Worth
What if your biggest risk was not taking one? What if you could make every move matter?
- [00:41]
Diana Olick
Bank of America's business solutions can help.
- [00:43]
Carter Worth
Bring your biggest what ifs within reach. Find out how our digital tools, cutting.
- [00:48]
Dominic Cheung
Edge insights and trusted expertise can work for your business. What would you like the power to do? Visit bankofamerica.com bankingforbusiness to learn more. Bank of America is proud to be the official bank sponsor of FIFA World Cup 2026.
- [01:04]
Carter Worth
Live from the NASDAQ Marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. And here's what's on tap for tonight. Housing headaches. Shares of Toll Brothers sinking as you can see after the company's latest earnings report that after a dismal day overall for the builders, we're going to dig in on the numbers and bring you the trade on the housing space. And back at records, the S and P setting its first intraday and closing record high since late January. What's driving the move? And is there more gas left in the tank for stocks? We're going to debate it. Plus, a BABA bounce takes the stock to 3 year highs. Investors bet on a win for Wynn Resorts and Metta breaks a historic winning streak. What's next for the social giant? I'm Dominic Chewing from Melissa Lee this afternoon. Coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. On the desk tonight, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Carter Worth and Julie Beal. Let's get right to the markets. The S and P staging a late day rally to set new record intraday and closing highs. As you can see there, it's the first time since late January the Dow in the nasdaq by the way, also inching back towards records of their own. We're going to get to all of that in just a few minutes time. But we start with an earnings alert on Toll Brothers, the homebuilder sharply lower after missing Wall Street's earnings and delivery expectations estimates. Our Diana Oleg joins us with all the relevant numbers. Diana?
- [02:24]
Diana Olick
Well, Dom, it was kind of an ugly first quarter for the luxury homebuilder missing on the top and bottom lines Toll also came in short on deliveries, revenue down 5% year over year. CEO Doug Yearley said in the release that the miss was mostly due to some impairments and a delay in the sale of an apartment property and a joint venture. He said homebuilding operations met expectations. He did, however, add that although demand has remained healthy in many of our markets, and particularly at the higher end, affordability constraints and growing inventories in certain markets are pressuring sales, especially at the the average sale price in Q1 for toll was $925,000. He also said that based on first quarter results, the gross margin embedded in their backlog, and the trends they're seeing early in the spring selling season, they are reaffirming all key home building guidance for the full year, including deliveries, average price and adjusted gross margin. There was nothing in the release about the potential impact of tariffs. We'll look to hear more on that on the analyst call tomorrow morning. But Dom, as you know, homebuilder sentiment this morning tanked because of tariffs and that was down to a from the national association of Home Builders.
- [03:30]
Carter Worth
It's all going to be part of that contextual picture. Diana, thank you very much for all of that. Let's turn now to what's going to happen with the trade here on the homebuilders and maybe Guy, I'll start with you on this. If you take a look at the way things have moved, the sentiment numbers, as Diana alluded to, had tariffs front and center. Do we think that there is a plateau building for homebuilders before we even get into it?
- [03:53]
Dan Nathan
Welcome. We're a welcoming show.
- [03:55]
Carter Worth
It's nice to be back with you guys.
- [03:56]
Dan Nathan
So welcome. Dom, am I Right? Dan?
- [03:58]
Guy Adami
100%, guy.
- [03:59]
Dan Nathan
Appreciate that. I think it's a big deal. I think tariffs are the headline. Interest rates, though, are probably the real plot. And when you look at the Toll Brothers, average selling price is now down 8% year over year. So in my opinion, higher rates are starting to have an impact. And you look at this stock, I mean the move we've had since November has been significant. And to me it's not about eps. It's not about if these stocks are expensive, it's cheap. What do you think about the employment picture and what do you think about the rate picture? I think the employment picture is going to deteriorate. I think rates are going to go up. So almost by definition you can't own these. Now if you put a chart up, you'll see 110 or so was the level that we bounced from In July of last year. That should be support. That's probably where we're headed.
- [04:41]
Katerina Simonetti
Yeah.
- [04:41]
Guy Adami
It's worth noting though, it's not just obviously homebuilders, it's also the autos. Right. And so they're facing this headwind of potential, you know, tariffs here. And if you go back and you. Guy, we're just calling up charts here today, aren't we? Let's look at the GM chart for a second. It doesn't look too different than where Toll Brothers topped out too. It was late November, so we saw lots of sectors rally over the enthusiasm about a pro growth sort of agenda by the new administration. But I think, you know, first and foremost, I think tariffs have basically taken over like the story here as it relates to our economy. And that's the sort of thing where you talk about the S and P, you talk about the Dow making new highs. At some point, these sectors that face these headwinds are going to weigh on s and P500 earnings. Even if it's just indecision. Right. Whether it be from consumers or it might be indecision from companies and the CEOs and how they choose to spend their money on R and D and Capex.
- [05:32]
Carter Worth
Julie, if we talk about the fundamentals of the housing market, this is a key point in the overall scheme of the year and maybe even this market right now, it's the spring selling season, we're almost into it. How worrying is Toll Brothers and how worrying is the home builders trade if you look at it from that standpoint?
- [05:50]
Julie Beal
Well, I think for sure it's pretty critical that right now they get out there and be able to make up for the mistakes that they had. They reaffirmed their guidance. And so I think they have a certain amount of confidence, they have a certain amount of their inventory that's already bought and paid for and sold. So I think that their visibility is probably better than the average homebuilder. And also demographically speaking, they're better positioned because they're a higher end builder. I'm much more worried about the lower end entry level building companies because I think they're even more economically sensitive. Exactly. To Guy's point, the employment picture is what's really going to drive them longer term. That's what we really need to see. I think tariffs are something that can be an intermediate or short term headwind for them. But they've all been able to be pretty resilient in the face of that.
- [06:36]
Carter Worth
Hey Carter, are any of these charts set up better than others? Either one way or the other if you could find some momentum for some carry through to the Upside or down.
- [06:45]
Katerina Simonetti
Well, it's a very homogeneous group of course and what we know is that they are all under pressure and they all peaked as four, five, six months ago. In fact, the S&P 500 home building sub industry group right now is down 30% from its peak in September. And you have a sort of a 1, 2 setup that's not good. The one is that this group has doubled the performance of the S and P over the past decade, the past 15, 20 years and now is underperforming. So when you have something that's been a massive outperformer that then starts to stall and roll over, all of these stocks qualify as bullish to bearish. Reversal sells and the news out with Toll Brothers doesn't help the situation.
- [07:28]
Carter Worth
You know Julie, I want to go back to something you said with regard to some of these the spectrum across there. One thing that we do know is that many of the housing related stocks outside of the pure builders, I'm thinking names like Home Depot or Lowe's or maybe names like Masco on the building supply side of things have been trading alongside. Maybe not exactly lockstep, but they're not exactly momentum upside winners at this point either. How big of a deal is it for some of those other plays like a Home Depot or Lowe's given the fact that the housing market right now seems to be losing at least a little bit of steam for the time being?
- [08:03]
Julie Beal
Yeah, I mean I think it's absolutely critical right Those, all of those businesses, everyone has been holding their breath. If you read any analyst note covering any of these companies for all of 2024, we're just waiting for interest rates to decline and we're all just waiting and waiting and holding our breath. Eventually you know, we're not going to be feeling so great. I think the biggest concern for everyone is that affordability remains a very large problem in the in the home sector. And we just don't have a lot of visibility in terms of when interest rates are really going to soften. There's just more factors pushing them up than down.
- [08:36]
Dan Nathan
About a week and a half or so ago I thought that Home Depot could break out through those December, I think 2021 highs and it looked like it was poised to do it. It is not traded well ever since. Should come as no surprise to fast money fans. I put them alike on it. But with that said, this report on the 25th becomes extraordinarily important in terms of where the stock is technically and maybe where it is on a valuation level as well. So you know, these downstream plays which have seemingly been Teflon, potentially could be under a lot of pressure as well.
- [09:07]
Carter Worth
All right, so with that in mind, let's turn back to the broader markets overall because the major indices are closing near their highs of the day right now. The S and P setting, by the way, new intraday and closing records. The Nasdaq is less than a percent off its high while the Dow eked out a gain of 10 points. So for more on what's been driving and what's next for the markets, let's bring in Catarina Simonetti of Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. Katerina, what does it say to you that we're having this generally negative conversation right now about a key part of the market and the economy yet? The Nasdaq is a percent away from record highs, the Dow is a little over a percent from record highs and the S and P is at record highs right now.
- [09:47]
Dominic Cheung
Well done. The market has been extremely positive over the last couple of weeks, which is unusual, especially for the month of February. That has been historic, historically volatile. And when we're thinking about the backdrop of the tariff fears and executive orders and higher bond yields, it is almost interesting to see this development and perhaps it is the possibility of the war ending. Perhaps there is a general standard European countries will have to step up or maybe it's just the healthy economic drag drop that we have been experiencing over the last couple of years. But market seems to be quite opportunistic, optimistic.
- [10:32]
Carter Worth
It's not just that, Katerina. If you take a look at yields, we talk about interest rates so often as a driving force behind these markets. We are still markedly lower than we were just a few weeks ago in terms of the 10 year treasury yield. It's a benchmark for mortgage lending and elsewhere as well. What exactly is the rate importance for the overall market? Do we need to see continued rate, gradual declines on the long end of things in order for this market to keep going higher?
- [11:00]
Dominic Cheung
Well, we definitely have an extremely data driven Fed and as we are kind of deciphering the news and are trying to see if tariff conversation. Is this a policy or is it a negotiating tactic? Once we see the actual effect that higher for longer narrative has in the economy, Federal Reserve is going to to figure out the way to proceed. We are expecting to two rate cuts this year, perhaps one in May and one in September. But in our view there are so many factors that are going going to go into it. And perhaps we're just seeing the broadening of the market. Last couple of years, the leadership of the market has been in technology and seeing other sectors like health care, like energy, manufacturing, software, you know, on the tech side, you know, coming in and leading the way, you know, is something that could be affecting this market as well as high yield.
- [11:55]
Carter Worth
Do you think that broadening out trade plays out markedly? So in 2025, Katerina, do we see names like financials continue to outperform? Energy was an outperformer today, albeit on higher oil prices. Does that rotation trade still happen?
- [12:10]
Dominic Cheung
It was a surprise to so many investors that technology was not the leading sector in 2024. It was in fact financials. Financials ended up being up 32% in 12 months. And we are going to see more of this as quality stocks are going to be leading the way. There's a lot of fear, there's a lot of uncertainty, but there's also a lot of opportunity in quality names both here in the US and also in Europe.
- [12:36]
Dan Nathan
Katerina, 4%. Nobody seems to be concerned about the labor market, the unemployment rate. Are there any cracks in the armor that you see? Or is this basically, you know, we're in this great environment for the labor market and therefore theoretically a great environment for the market.
- [12:51]
Dominic Cheung
We have not seen full employment at this level for quite some time. Is it playing a role in overall data, you know, as we're looking at, of course, and it also is giving investors that sense of comfort with the market. But we can't forget about the fact that we're coming off of the two extremely positive years, unusually positive. So there has to be realistic expectations of what this year is going to bring. Even with the healthiest economic backdrop, we're probably looking at the low single digit returns, you know, for the end of the year.
- [13:24]
Carter Worth
How fearful, Catarina, do your clients, investors in general, have to be about a renewed inflationary threat this year? You laid out the case for maybe two rate cuts this year, but it sure seems like the near term data suggests inflation is certainly not gone.
- [13:40]
Dominic Cheung
Of course, inflation has been a major concern for us throughout the 24, and we know without shadow of a doubt the tariffs are inflationary. Now we have to wait and see what this tariff policy is actually going to end up being. But inflation was a concern, will be a concern, and absolutely is going to have the negative effect on the market. And this is where, you know, investors absolutely are concerned. So when we're looking at the sectors, we will need to be significantly more selective about Our stock picking this year versus just investing in the broad market index and just seeing how things play out.
- [14:18]
Carter Worth
All right, Katrina Simonetti, Morgan Stanley Private. Well, thank you very much. We'll see you soon.
- [14:23]
Dominic Cheung
Thank you for having me.
- [14:24]
Carter Worth
All right, Dan, given what she just said, are there favorite sectors that you should be in? Given. Given the backdrop that we've seen, we're.
- [14:32]
Guy Adami
Seeing rotations within tech and again, you know, out of semis. Semis have really been flat over the last six months or so. Obviously Nvidia and Taiwan semi have been big outperformers but it can't get the stocks the so xx going at all next week is going to be obviously important when we get in video's earnings and obviously I think think the whole sector should likely trade with it. On a day like today though, I look at the faithful eight, right. I don't see many of them up. You know, Nvidia was up 3 1/2% at one point today. I think it closed up 40 basis points. Microsoft closed up a little bit, the rest were down. And you look at software, it's doing pretty well. So you're seeing a bit of rotation within tech. But when you look at some of these other areas that we just talked about, some pockets in the industrial space, homebuilding, obviously financials have trade pretty well. So that's on the flip side of what we've seen or what we've just been talking about. The ones that are kind of seeing rates as a headwind. So four and a half percent up in the S&P 500 year to date. We had two consecutive years of 25% returns. Something's got to happen if we're going to kind of get to double digit returns. I think Katerina just said they're expecting low single digits gains this year. Well, you know what, we're up low single digits right now, so it'll be interesting to see how we get there. The last thing I'll just say is this. Both the bank of America global fund managers surveyed, 89% or so of the respondents said they're like full up in cash. Like they don't have cash on the sidelines. That seems a little euphoric right here.
- [15:52]
Carter Worth
All right, Julie, what does this set up say to you? Does it feel like there's no gas left, there's no fuel left in the tank at this point?
- [16:01]
Julie Beal
I think there is fuel left in the tank. I think because we've seen enough weakness in earnings outside of the magnificent Seven that there's still opportunity for growth. But it really is requiring everything to go right. And I think that's the kind of concern that we're all feeling, is that there are enough difficulties in front of the markets and in front of just companies writ large that they have uncertainty, they have inflation, they have interest rates. And these are the types of things that can really trip up companies who are trying to navigate this landscape. And so I think it's really natural to look at this market, at this pricing, at these levels and say, gosh, we really could use a nice pullback in terms of being able to level set that and reflect where we are as far as the fundamentals.
- [16:45]
Carter Worth
All right. Well, speaking of navigating, folks, President Trump is signing some executive orders just in the last hour. CNBC's own Megan Casella has all those details. And these eos are becoming a fact of life in the first hundred days of the administration. What exactly do we need to know now and how do we have to navigate these new eos?
- [17:06]
Megan Casella
Almost every day there's some new ones, Dom. So a couple of executive orders and a press conference down in Florida just in the last hour. The first order was a move directing Trump's Domestic Policy Council to look for ways to expand access to fertility treatments and to make IVF and other treatments more affordable. He also then signed a presidential memorandum. So one step down from an order committing to what he called radical transparency. This one directs his agencies to release the complete details of every program and contract that they cancel as they work to streamline the government. So something to look for there as Doge begins to work its way through federal agencies. Trump then also spoke a bit about tariffs, saying that he will be announcing more specifics on his sectoral tariffs after April 2, but that tariffs on cars and pharmaceuticals are likely to start at 25% and could go higher from there. Then on the Doge front, Trump said that he has no concerns about the thousands of layoffs of probationary employees across federal agencies this weekend. Even he was specifically asked about the layoffs of people who focus on nuclear weapons security who were immediately then rehired. No concerns about how that was done. He was also asked about the potential for a conflict of interest, as Doge works with the FAA and the Defense Department. Given Elon Musk's and SpaceX contracts that are in place. Trump said that anything to do with space, he will not let Musk partake in that. And then finally, Dom, as Trump walked away from the cameras, he said that he would probably meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin before the end of the month. That came just a few minutes after Trump said that what he wants with Russia and Ukraine is peace and that he thinks he has the power to end this war. So much more to watch on that front as well, Dom.
- [18:50]
Carter Worth
All right, thank you very much, Meghan Casella for a lot of detail and recapping of these new EOs and memoranda. So this is important, guy, as we talk about the navigation aspect of it, we have to deal with this idea that there are uncertainties that need to be addressed by the markets vis a vis the administration. What exactly does that do to say investor sentiment given what we've seen now so far?
- [19:13]
Dan Nathan
Well, apparently investor sentiment is not great. Apparently the lowest I've seen in about.
- [19:17]
Carter Worth
A year and a half and yet records record highs.
- [19:19]
Dan Nathan
My next point. So I mean, clearly the market has figured out how to sort of deal with this and handicap it. So with the Vix below 16, the S& P effectively at an all time high, I mean, the market doesn't seem to care. We'll talk about it all the time and rightly so. But the market has figured out how to handicap this. I will say this though, it does come down to interest rates. And you know, you look at the move in interest rates and all the things that we continue to hear are not bullish for the bond market. In other words, are not reason for rates to go lower. The reason for the rates to go higher. That to me is the real story of this market.
- [19:51]
Carter Worth
All right, thanks very much guys. Coming up with the show, a potential breakup boost, shares of intel surging the reports competitors could be looking to split the company up. What a deal could look like coming up next. And don't look now but Alibaba is up nearly 50% in just 2025 alone. Founder Jack Ma resurfacing in a high profile meeting with China's Xi Jinping. The latest on the Chinese tech trade when Fast Money returns. We are back in two.
- [20:19]
Angelica Peebles
You're watching Fast Money here on CNBC. We'll be right back.
- [20:33]
Guy Adami
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- [20:52]
Angelica Peebles
Welcome to the now it pays to Discover.
- [20:55]
Guy Adami
Learn more@discover.com creditcard based on the February 2024 Nelson Report.
- [21:01]
Angelica Peebles
Check out the all new CNBC sport podcast where sports business and investing collide, from media deals to team valuations, private equity moves and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC Sport podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.
- [21:18]
Carter Worth
All right. Welcome back to Fast. Intel shares surging more than 16% following a wall Street Journal report that rivals Broadcom and Taiwan Semi are exploring independent deals to split up the chip maker. Broadcom is reportedly interested in acquiring Intel's chip design and marketing business, while Taiwan Semi wants either partial or complete control of its factories or foundry business. Intel is up more than 36% this year after today's gains, but have been nearly cut in half since the start of 2024. Dan, this is one that is in your Gen AI acronym as we are seeing up there right now. So take us through the inside.
- [21:55]
Guy Adami
By the way, I played the game, right Guy, you see what I did there? Some of the folks on this desk don't do it, but what I was trying to do here is kind of go after some laggards and this action is pretty interesting. Guy's been making the case, I think for a couple of years that intel is too important of an American company just to continue to flounder like this. And so when you see what's going, it's really a shame that the Biden administration didn't come around to this kind of quicker. I think they gave him maybe 8 or 9 billion dol as part of the Chips act that wasn't going to do anything. They don't have a CEO right now. That chip design business is probably more than three quarters of the value of this company. I think that's one of the main reasons why the stock has rallied the way it has from maybe $20 to where it's trading like 27 or something like that. There's a gap to be filled above of that. Any way you look at this thing as some of the parts is probably a bit higher, I think it's gone too far too fast. I'd be really surprised if we get any announcements in the near term. These sorts of things without a CEO in place are probably pretty hard to navigate it.
- [22:50]
Carter Worth
Carter, you got to put these things in contest. We're flashing all kinds of timelines for charts here. Massive moves that we're seeing very much in the green. But if you look longer term, it's a very different story. So what did the charts say to you about whether intel has more room to run? Sure.
- [23:06]
Katerina Simonetti
I mean, that's just it. Time frames, it's all it's ever thus and one has to know who one is in the market and what one's timeframe is. We know that this stock still is way below its.com peak up at the 70s. It's right now at $27. Stock still down some 60%. And yet what we also know it's been basing and bottoming for the better part of 10 months. It keeps holding 1819. 1819. That was thrust aggressively on heavy volume from that 1890 level to where we are at 27 and we are into the gap that I guess Guy referred to, that was a drop in gap on earnings on the 1st of August. And so a natural sort of resting spot if you will for this current day to day thrust would be to fill that gap. That's not much higher. That's at at 30, 31. At that point you would be back to a level of overhead supply. And if I were in this stock and it caught this move, I would be cutting it back by half above 30.
- [24:02]
Carter Worth
Guy, this is interesting. Speaking of volumes, I mean this thing right now, it looks like as things are settling out has traded about 260 million shares today. The 10 day average is roughly 160, 16 million. There was a lot of activity.
- [24:17]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, almost three times normal. We'll call it two and a half times normal volume. Absolutely. Dan was kind to say I've been pointing that out. He was also kind enough to point out I've been saying it since it was a fifty dollar stock. So it's been wrong. But with that said, I mean if you look technically the latest low we made is a bit of a double bottom from the fall. Nothing's been fixed at Intel. I want to be crystal clear. But the stock can still go higher and Carter and Dan are right to point out those levels. 31 gets us back to levels that we broke down from in July of last year. I think that's where it's headed. Then we'll have another conversation.
- [24:49]
Carter Worth
All right. There's still a lot more to come here on Fast Money. So here's what's coming up on the show.
- [24:55]
Angelica Peebles
Quite the bounce for Alibaba. The Chinese tech stock trading at 3 year highs. Will support from Beijing help the rally keep running. Plus the future of health care in America. What billionaire investor Mark Cuban has to say about the space. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [25:23]
Guy Adami
Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back.
- [25:43]
Angelica Peebles
Welcome to the now it pays to Discover.
- [25:46]
Guy Adami
Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report.
- [25:52]
Angelica Peebles
Check out the all new CNBC Sport podcast where sports business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private equity moves and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC Sport podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.
- [26:07]
Carter Worth
Welcome back to Fast Money. Alibaba. Alibaba shares are popping almost 2% bringing the tech giant year to date gains to nearly 50%. I can't believe I'm saying this. The stock hit levels today not seen since February of 2022. Founder Jack Ma making a rare appearance at a business symposium as you're seeing there, hosted by none other than Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday. The pair seen here shaking hands as Beijing starts to show some more support for the country's private sector and maybe tech giants in particular. Guy, it wasn't that long ago we were talking about the all out assault of the Chinese Communist Party on their tech industry.
- [26:48]
Dan Nathan
We put that picture. Can we our crack staff and EC put that picture back. Those, what do they call those? Members only chat. Is that what they're rocking?
- [26:55]
Carter Worth
That is like a. You mean Chinese president Xi Jinping.
- [26:57]
Dan Nathan
I mean that's a good look man.
- [26:59]
Carter Worth
It is, but it doesn't have that members only logo.
- [27:01]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, maybe, maybe they're not allowed to.
- [27:02]
Carter Worth
Rep. No, I don't know.
- [27:04]
Dan Nathan
Look, I as well we talk about acronyms before so I'll throw you mine the tube. The bee in the tube, as you probably well aware is Alibaba, which is.
- [27:13]
Carter Worth
Killing us right there.
- [27:15]
Dan Nathan
And there's, you know, despite the fact that the stock is going to think from 82 to a buck and a quarter, there's still room in this name of people like you're out of your mind. Maybe. Now the good news is they report on Thursday and maybe they'll say something will scare some people and maybe you'll get an opportunity to buy a cheaper. But Alibaba, and I've said this now for a while, should be $140 stock.
- [27:33]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I think we've got to get a little more clarity about what Apple is going to be doing with Alibaba. Obviously Baidu, not obviously, but Baidu has been thrown in there too as somebody who might be participating in Apple intelligence. And when you think about that, that's really the story right now, right? So to me, you know, the company or the country, you know, President Xi, I mean, they sat on these companies, these are their national championship for all intents and purposes. And they got a lot of room to go, I mean, from a stock perspective. But they also have to prove to the world that they are basically on par with what we have over here, despite the fact that our digital companies, for all intents and purposes, can't be there. But the story of Apple intelligence, the story of US Multinationals going in and partnering with Alibaba and Baidu, to me means there's more room to run. But I would actually probably be focused on Baidu, despite the fact that they gave some disappointing guidance here today.
- [28:23]
Carter Worth
Carter, what can we believe it? Can we believe the near to medium term momentum that we've seen in some of these Chinese tech giants, or is this just going to lead to more tears, kind of like the last couple of years had?
- [28:35]
Katerina Simonetti
Right. So we have this is the second go at it, right? We'll recall that of course, in September. And it was a very appreciating thing. Tepper came out and said buy all things Chinese. And what you had was a huge surge in Hang seng up some 40% and Baba up 60 and that peaked on the 7th of October almost to give 60, 70% of it back. Now if you were to look at the Hang Seng, we're right back to the penny to that October 7 high. Whereas Baba is through the high, the presumption is that there's room to run. And of course, if one wants to dream, one can look at the five year chart of Alibaba and look back and see how high it's been and how much ground it still has potentially to recoup losses.
- [29:20]
Carter Worth
All right, coming up on the show, what billionaire investor Mark Cuban has to say about the next move in pharma and how our traders are handling the stock moves in that space when Fast MONEY returns after this break.
- [29:34]
Angelica Peebles
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the Go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [29:48]
Carter Worth
Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks managing some small gains to kick off a holiday shortened trading week. The S and P closing at a record high. The Dow in the NASDAQ ending slightly higher as well in the day Meta's record run finally coming to an end after a 20 day winning streak though, shares dropping nearly 3% to end that 20 day streak which started a month ago. That was the longest run ever, ever of any stock currently in the S&P 500. So I alluded to historic earlier on. It is quantitatively so. Shares of Howard Hughes giving back its late day gains. After hours. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square announcing a revised proposal for the real estate development company saying it would buy 10 million shares for 90 bucks apiece. And some more after hours action. Occidental Petroleum beating earnings expectations but missing revenue estimates. And Devon Energy posting earnings and revenues that beat expectations. Both companies also increasing their quarterly dividends. Devon higher by 3/4 of a percent. Occidental down by 1.5%. Now, as the nation's health agencies grapple with funding cuts and major personnel changes, pharma industry leaders are convening in Washington, D.C. to lay out their policy goals in the year ahead. Our own Angelica Peebles is at the pharma industry lobbying group's Commitment to a Healthier America event where she just sat down with Cost Plus Drugs founder and of course, billionaire investor Mark Cuban. Angelica, what can you tell us?
- [31:20]
J
Hey, Dom. That's right. We are here. And of course, PBMs are a big focus of the pharmaceutical industry. Now Mark Cuban three years ago launched his Cost plus drugs. And the idea there is that he sells the drugs that he buys for just the cost that he bought them for in a 15% markup. And you know, Mark Cuban telling me at this point that it's been pretty successful, but so far they've really only been able to sell generics. And it's going to take a lot more to get the branded companies, the companies that are selling the branded drugs.
- [31:47]
Katerina Simonetti
To work with him as we convince those CEOs to move away from the big PBM. So you've seen, you know, box.com, tyson Foods at and T and a growing list of others, you know, probably 22 million lives covered. If we can get 60, 70 million lives covered, then it's okay for Merck and others to say, look, we're not beholden to those big PBMs any longer.
- [32:14]
J
Now, I know it's a health care conference, but I did have to ask about the big mavericks trade that has been very controversial. I asked Mark if he's regretting his decision to sell his majority stake in the Mavs and he laughed and he said no. He said that he and is really enjoying spending time with his kids and he's happy that he can protect them from the, quote, hell and hatred that happens if you make a mistake. Which made me pause and ask if it was in fact a blunder.
- [32:41]
Katerina Simonetti
I would have done it Differently. But you know what, they paid me a lot of money to make those choices. And Patrick smart. I know Patrick's been getting a lot of crap. I know Nico's been getting. But they're good people and they do have the best interest of the mavericks at heart.
- [32:54]
J
And before he left I did have to ask if he thinks that there's any chance that the Mavs leave Dallas. And he laughed and said no Dom.
- [33:02]
Carter Worth
You covered it all. Angelica, thank you very much for that and good luck with this. Travels here from trying to hit it all here. You hit it all. Angelica Peoples, thank you very much for that. Julie, let's get out to you about this. The pharma industry conference here puts a big spotlight on an industry right now that is very front and center for folks watching what the Trump administration will do. What exactly does this tell you about whether or not pharma is investable in 2025?
- [33:29]
Julie Beal
I think only pockets of it are investable and I think even that is pretty challenging. I think, you know, early indications are that tariffs could be happening in pharma but that doesn't really tell us a lot about our existing drugs and pharma companies writ large. I think the outlook right now is pretty uncertain and I don't view it as a super investible class. I would rather own businesses that serve pharma companies. I think that the pricing situation is such that and so opaque with the PBMs that we could see more and more pressure on pricing going forward in.
- [34:00]
Carter Worth
The US Guy, what do we think?
- [34:02]
Dan Nathan
Well, a couple of names have been unbelievable. Gilead is within a few dollars of an all time high made 10 years ago. I think analysts are way off size. I think Deutsche bank just upgraded the name. You're going to see more and more people do that around some of these FDA rulings that have been in their favor, number one. And J and J if you're looking for value massive double bottom around 144 or so. I think JJ could give you some upside over the next couple of weeks.
- [34:25]
Carter Worth
To Carter, what do you think?
- [34:28]
Katerina Simonetti
Well it's, it's a very. Julie makes his point. It's only pockets. So we know that the sub industry Group S and P 500 pharmaceuticals is the big three. That would be of course Pfizer, Merck Lilly, but you've also got Bristol, Myer, J and J. What's interesting is that the relative performance of this group to the market is at 30 year lows. I mean it's incredible with all the heavy lifting that Lilly's done. So the question is, is this sort of deep value or is it a contrarian bet? My hunch is yes, an overweight here. Makes sense.
- [34:57]
Guy Adami
Guy, we love Mark Cuban, don't we? Friend of the show for a long time.
- [35:00]
Dan Nathan
Mark Cuban has been watching the show since the inception. One of the first guests we had a friend of ours. A friend of the show, absolutely.
- [35:07]
Guy Adami
What he's doing in the pharma space, pretty cool. She asked him about the Luca trade. You know, the Mavericks lost in the finals last year. Boston Celtics kind of smoked him a little bit. Right. So a little bit a lot of.
- [35:19]
Dan Nathan
Right.
- [35:20]
Guy Adami
That team valued at $5 billion, the Mavericks Celtics are trading here. What do you think, Guy? Mavericks north of 7. What do you think? North of 7 billion.
- [35:30]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. There's going to be an NBA team that goes for 10 billion over the next three to five years without, I.
- [35:36]
Guy Adami
Mean, that's the Celtics or what if they win this year? They got a little bit. Dynasty.
- [35:40]
Dan Nathan
Could you. Yeah, well, they're not going to win this year, unfortunately. There's a team down the street about eight blocks from here that look poised to take over that crowd. That of course, would be the Knickerbockers.
- [35:50]
Carter Worth
Yes.
- [35:51]
Dan Nathan
With Jalen Brunson, as Dan knows, playing point guard. Yeah.
- [35:54]
Guy Adami
But the Celtics win.
- [35:55]
Carter Worth
Can I just say this? I'm going to ask one question and then both of you guys can answer very quickly, simultaneously or not simultaneously. Are the Mavs better off without Luka?
- [36:07]
Guy Adami
No way.
- [36:07]
Dan Nathan
Yes.
- [36:08]
Guy Adami
Really?
- [36:08]
Dan Nathan
They didn't like. They didn't think he was.
- [36:10]
Guy Adami
They don't like his dad bod.
- [36:11]
Dan Nathan
But Guy, you don't like his dad bod.
- [36:13]
Guy Adami
Yeah.
- [36:13]
Dan Nathan
I'm 61 years old. I can rock a lot of things at 61. I can't drain it from 3 like Luka.
- [36:20]
Carter Worth
Nobody can.
- [36:20]
Guy Adami
On that note.
- [36:22]
Carter Worth
All right, guys, coming up on the show here, Wall street and the calls that had Win hitting blackjack and then of course, hims and hers shares thinning out, if you will. We've got the details and those trades coming up next when FAST MONEY returns after this. Welcome back to FAST money. We've got a pair of calls of the day for you. Let's start with the casino operator, Wynn Resorts continuing to climb after an upgrade by analysts at Jefferies. Stock is up another 2.75% today after last week's earnings pop. Analysts are raising the stock to a buy rating from neutral and upping their target price to $118 a share. That's about 30% upside from current levels. Guy do you believe the Wynn Resorts story?
- [37:23]
Dan Nathan
I do. I mean, if you look at this chart as well, I mean, it has some ups and downs, but valuation, if Tim was here, he'd say the same thing. It's just too cheap. Now, I understand why it sold off over the last year or so. Some China scares, Macao scares, but it's a valuation story here. So yet $91. This stock, to me should be easily back to the levels we saw. I want to say. October 105.
- [37:43]
Carter Worth
Dan, it's not just about valuations in that note, if you believe the analysts, they say that there are growth potentials for Macao and for its US Properties for wind as well. So it's not just valuation. There's a growth story.
- [37:56]
Guy Adami
Yeah. Focused on Macao, though. And we know that that's been a disproportionate amount of revenues over the last call, ten years or so. And obviously Vegas and some of the other areas in the US Are going to be big growth areas if they can ever get it going. I think the Macao issue is really speaks more to the Chinese consumer. Right. And so we've just seen obviously some of these names like PDD and Alibaba, maybe that has more to do with their cloud business and what they're doing with Apple. But I think win and the rally here could keep on going the way that Baba has if we got some sense that there's going to be more stimulus for the US for the Chinese consumer. So wind seems like a pretty decent one to play right here.
- [38:31]
Carter Worth
All right, so that stock is up. Meanwhile, check out shares of Hims and Hers, that health company that recently red hot health company. Its stock is down right now 3.5% after a downgrade from Morgan Stanley. Analysts are cutting the stock to an equal weight or neutral, but upping their target price to 660 bucks to kind of catch it up. Morgan Stanley saying that the time, it's time for a breather. The stocks had a run so far this year that's been pretty decent. Even with Today's pullback, the telehealth stock is still up a whopping 140%. So, Julie, is this a stock that you want to stick with or heed the call and just pull back?
- [39:05]
Julie Beal
I think if you're going to, if you're going to be sticking with it, you need to have be investing in Toms while you're at it, because I think you're up for a pretty bumpy ride. It's not just that the fundamentals of this business are a little bit still to be figured out. Part of it, too, is a regulatory issue. What will the Trump administration's viewpoint on compounders be? Will there still be, you know, a GLP1 shortage that enables them to continue to sell that business? We know that a lot of the growth is really being driven on the women's side, the hers business. And so in order to kind of maintain that level of growth, you have to have confidence in both of those things. And I don't know if I necessarily do. And the problem is is that you have a very high level of short interest. So I think regardless, volatility is up ahead for this one.
- [39:49]
Carter Worth
It also trades at 110 times forward earnings at this point right now. So, Carter, what do you think about the charts on this one here?
- [39:57]
Katerina Simonetti
Well, extended, right? I mean, that's not very clever in terms of a comment, but is more extended than it's been at any time in the past three or five years. You're some 150% above the 150 moving average. It's also, to Julie's point, volatile. It's had, count them, four instances where it's dropped more than 35% in the past year and a half. And that's the exact kind of thing that happens here when you're this far above trend.
- [40:24]
Carter Worth
All right. That's the story for hims and hers. And when coming up on the show, a technical take on overseas investing, what the chartmaster sees for opportunities outside of America. That's coming up next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim's chatting right now. Now exclusively with the CEO of electronics manufacturer Jabil. Catch that full interview at the top of the hour on Mad Money with Jim Cramer. We got more Fast Money in two minutes time. Welcome back to FAST money. Even as the S and P sets new records, global markets are outpacing America. Believe it or not this year, the MSCI World index is up 5% in 2025. The Stoxx 600 in Europe is up nearly 10%. So is it time to broaden your portfolio overseas? Let's turn now to the Chartmaster for a lesson in the technicals Global Edition.
- [41:17]
Katerina Simonetti
Carter, right in the DAX is up even more than that with SAP being the bigger biggest contributor. Let's go right to the charts and try to look at the relationship between the world and the world without the US So these are very straightforward colors and straightforward lines. One is the MSCI All Country World Index acwi. And the other in orange is the All Country World Index. But you strip out the US stocks, the big heavy winners. And so you'll see here since inception of the indices back in the late 80s, this is almost a four bagger. Now this is the same chart but depicted as a ratio chart. And what it shows of course is that the the MSCI x the US has been underperforming since 09 low but it did outperform in 2001-2007. So let's go right to the here and now chart. So this is since 09 and it's straight down. It's a perfect 45 year angle down and to the right. It is the underperformance of the world index ex the U.S. versus the world index itself, which of course includes the U.S. i've drawn an up arrow there. I think we're going to go to the upper band of that down channel and then one more iteration just to put it together. We have ricocheted nicely off the bottom. Off the top, off the bottom. And on this Laska we undercut the lower band for the first time. And then finally one index or one borscht. This is the Indian stock exchange, the Sensex. It is down to support down some 15, 18%. I think you play for a bounce here.
- [42:49]
Carter Worth
Okay, there is world in charts.
- [42:51]
Dan Nathan
You speak Portuguese?
- [42:53]
Carter Worth
I do not speak. Neither do I. Obrigado. That's why that's pretty. Yes to the voltage.
- [42:58]
Dan Nathan
Put up an EWZ chart and this one's Tuta Bain. And I'll tell you this, Dan, help me with the name because you remember these things. We're at the Iconnections conference. The gentleman that sat next to me was talking.
- [43:08]
Guy Adami
Martine Escobar General.
- [43:11]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, Atlantic. And he talked. I asked him about the EWZ and he said completely undervalued. Look at what that stock has done or that ETF has done since. And we are on the verge of breaking out of a 17 year downtrend. So if you want to be one place, it's EW said there.
- [43:27]
Carter Worth
Dom, what do we think?
- [43:28]
Guy Adami
Dan? You know, it's a tough one. And I think Martin Escobar said this like it's about transparency. It's a tough one there. They have a lot of the political headwinds there. They have inflationary issues. Sometimes they get hyperinflationary. I mean, this is not particularly interesting to me. I'd probably look at the eem. It's got Chinese exposure, it's got a bunch of other exposure, you know, in and around South America and the like. So to me is more interesting than E.W. zed.
- [43:53]
Carter Worth
All right. And what about Carter, last word to you. The Germany trade, it's intriguing.
- [43:59]
Katerina Simonetti
Yes. Again, that is the big constituent within the Stoxx 600 Europe and SAP is what's driving that. Of course, it's the big tech name, but the relationship between Dax and the Stoxx 600, it's fairly stretched. I think one fades SAP and by inference is underway Germany or relative to the rest of Europe.
- [44:19]
Carter Worth
All right, there's the global take there. Thanks, everybody. Coming up next, your final trade. So keep it right here. All right, it's about that time. It's final trades go around the horn, Julie, starting with you, Celsius Cl.
- [44:42]
Julie Beal
I think the bad news is past us and for long term investors could be a good one.
- [44:46]
Carter Worth
All right, Carter.
- [44:48]
Katerina Simonetti
Silver. Lagging gold. But its time is now. We think it breaks out here.
- [44:52]
Carter Worth
Ooh. Hi ho, silver. Dan.
- [44:54]
Guy Adami
Yeah. If you like China, you'll like top three holdings. Taiwan, semi guys B in the tube. That would be the Alibaba 10cent, this one.
- [45:04]
Carter Worth
All right, Guy Dami, shout out to Mark Cuban.
- [45:06]
Dan Nathan
Who does, who doesn't have a dad? Bob Bod.
- [45:09]
Carter Worth
He's also a fan of the show.
- [45:10]
Dan Nathan
You're gonna run this bleep back tomorrow with you.
- [45:13]
Carter Worth
We're gonna run it back.
- [45:14]
Dan Nathan
There we are.
- [45:14]
Carter Worth
Let's do it.
- [45:15]
Dan Nathan
J and J. Dominic.
- [45:16]
Carter Worth
All right, thanks everybody for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. We'll see you guys tomorrow here. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliate, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoney disclaimer.
- [46:05]
Angelica Peebles
Check out the all new CNBC Sport podcast where sports business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private equity moves and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC Sport Podcast. Listen on your favorite platform.