Chip Trade Rips… And Global Stocks Rally On Mideast Developments 5/6/25

Summary

CNBC "Fast Money" – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Chip Trade Rips… And Global Stocks Rally On Mideast Developments
Air Date: May 6, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Guests: Karen Feinerman, Steve Grasso, Mike Coe, Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Peter Boockvar (BFG Wealth Partners), Tom Rogers (media executive), Jared Holz (Mizuho)
Main Theme:
A market-wide rally is being celebrated on the back of surging semiconductor stocks, optimism around Mideast peace talks, and new corporate milestones—from Nvidia’s fiber optic investment and Disney’s streaming turnaround to global equity surges and pharma’s weight-loss drug arms race.

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Episode Overview

The episode dives into the factors behind the ongoing market rally, with chip stocks and global equities hitting new highs amid news of potential progress toward a US-Iran peace deal. The roundtable discusses whether Nvidia is finally catching up with the broader semiconductor rally, the implications of its investment in Corning, and the evolving narratives in AI, memory, and megacap tech. Updates on Disney’s strong quarterly results, the rise of international markets, and the latest in GLP-1 weight-loss pills from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are also key highlights.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Nvidia Effect" and Semiconductor Stock Rally

[01:00–11:10]

• Nvidia's Investment in Corning

  • Nvidia announced a $500M investment in Corning, sending Corning’s shares to record highs and giving Nvidia a 5% bump—its best day in three months, though only bringing it back to last week's levels.
  • Nvidia has recently underperformed the broader chip space—despite being the world's biggest company at $5T market cap and trading at 25x forward earnings (cheaper vs. Intel, AMD, Broadcom).
  • Karen Feinerman: Still bullish, favoring Nvidia for its central role:

    “It is the center of everything… the quarter will be enormous. That won’t be shocking to anyone, but it’s very odd how it trades this way.” [03:03]

  • Gene Munster: Cautious after recent partial profit-taking:

    “There’s always this ‘next year’ with Nvidia… It’s hard to get that incremental turn on the multiple. The narrative is so positive, there’s just no opportunity for them to change it.” [03:46]

  • Mike Coe: Sees Nvidia’s proprietary tech as a compelling reason to keep exposure:

    “It’s not expensive in my view. You sort of have to stay in it… their proprietary technology is the reason we stay in the name.” [04:55]

  • Steve Grasso: Argues “the alpha is in Nvidia partners” as much of the direct run in Nvidia is already reflected.

    “Anyone they’re investing in, that hasn’t popped yet—that’s where the alpha is going to be.” [06:33]

• Broader Chip Trade Dynamics

  • The narrative is moving—chips are transitioning from scarcity of GPUs to focus on infrastructure, power, optics, and memory.
  • Key Insight by Gene Munster:

    “Now it’s about power, infrastructure, optics… incremental dollars are now going to this infrastructure around it.” [09:21]

• Valuation Gaps & The AI "Early Innings" Debate

  • Massive divergence in valuations: Nvidia’s rerating vs. the rest of the semiconductor industry.
  • Munster’s Prediction:

    “We’re still grossly underestimating how big this whole trade is going to be.” [09:52]

• Software vs. Semis

  • Semiconductors up, while software lags, notably Microsoft.
  • Karen Feinerman:

    “Part of the cesspocalypse theory is fewer seats, less pricing power… Those things will weigh on the [software] industry for a while.” [10:56]

  • Gene Munster:

    “It’s hard for me to imagine these software companies working if we have less knowledge workers.” [12:11]

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2. Market Rally & Geopolitical Update: Optimism over Iran Peace Talks

[12:47–19:29]

• Middle East Developments:

  • Hopes for a US-Iran deal spike equities as crude oil drops more than 7%; details of the proposal imply an end to war, re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and potential sanction relief (but key red lines remain).
  • Megan Cassella (CNBC):

    “The president said today he feels optimistic… but he also said that he’s felt that way before. So, quote: ‘We’ll see what happens’.” [13:04]

• Market Skepticism: Is the Rally Sustainable?

  • Peter Boockvar:

    “With $680B expected to be spent this year on AI, it’s for real. But I would caution: companies are front-running orders, double and triple ordering, out of fear about shortages.” [16:05]

  • Munster pushes back, asserting the AI cycle is just beginning and the "bullish trade" is actually contrarian now.

    “I think it’s actually contrarian right now to be bullish on the trade.” [16:58]

• Semis Leading Markets—How Cyclical Is This?

  • Boockvar:

    “A market led by semis, eventually you do hit a reckoning… Storage and memory are the most cyclical areas. Eventually this will hit a wall—but right now, it’s party on.” [18:17]

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3. Corporate Highlights: Meta, Disney, Joby Aviation

Meta’s Spending & Stock Stagnation
[19:29–20:51]

• Karen Feinerman: Sees further downside if Meta were to end investment in AI—but overall, supports large-scale spending for future-proofing.
• Gene Munster:

  “We recently sold [Meta], we still own Google, Amazon, Apple… just that incremental piece wasn’t there.” [20:36]

Disney’s 8% Surge on Strong Q1; Parks & Streaming Lead
[23:26–29:38]

• Tom Rogers (ex-NBC, Versant Media):
  • Disney+ and Hulu integration is good but engagement remains flat; YouTube has overtaken Disney in total viewership.
  • Budget pressure: $60B parks & cruises + outsized sports content costs will squeeze general entertainment investment.
  • Need for new franchise(s) and engagement, AI promises to lower costs for high-quality shows.
  • On AI’s disruptive potential:
    > “Imminently, you’ll see video models refined to output content indistinguishable from the best Hollywood productions… at incredibly low cost.” [28:04]
• Steve Grasso:

  “Operating income from streaming jumps 88%—they’ve somehow overnight become profitable. Margins drastically jumped above 10% and that’s the floor.” [28:47]

• Mike Coe:

  “Now [Disney] is competing with Alphabet’s deep pockets… You have to compete with Alphabet now, and that’s a tough competitor.” [29:38]

Joby Aviation's Leap and Industry Outlook
[31:43–33:35]

• Joby Aviation surges 21% after reporting better than expected sales (even pre-certification).
• Steve Grasso:

  “They have partners with Toyota, Delta, military contracts now… This isn’t a ‘what if’—it’s a ‘when’ opportunity. Huge runway, and people are starting to discover them.” [32:12]

• Mike Coe:

  “Could Joby be a $10B company just on military contracts and defense? Yeah, sure. But it’s basically still pre-revenue.” [33:16]

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4. Global Markets: International Equities Rally

[34:04–37:28]

• Big gains in Japan, China, Germany—oil drop and peace hopes offer relief from inflationary pressures.
• Karen Feinerman: Staying long in Europe, Mexico, Japan in light of these developments.
• Mike Coe: Japanese/German stocks are “dirt cheap” after years of being suppressed by geopolitical risk and inflation importation.
• Steve Grasso:

  “The market always looks through these things… If [Trump-Xi] meetings go bad, China tech comes off the table.” [37:25]

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5. Pharma: Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Oral GLP-1 Drug War

[38:40–43:47]

• Novo Nordisk rises on strong Wegovy (GLP-1 pill) sales, raising guidance; leads in prescriptions but still trails Eli Lilly in stock performance.

• Jared Holz (Mizuho):

  “Novo Nordisk’s launch is probably the most unheralded drug launch I can remember—2 million prescriptions in just over 4 months is kind of unheard of.” [39:03] “Oral therapies in pharma tend to do very well… I think both drugs will be blockbusters.” [39:24]

• Advice for Novo:

  “Drive the commercial success, get incremental patients, keep them on—own the oral market and expand from there.” [40:34]

• Discussion on Pipelines and Manufacturing:

  “Much easier to manufacture the small molecule (Lilly), but Novo’s route may be more effective for weight loss. Both drugs can be blockbusters.” [42:41]

• Portfolio Commentary:

  • Karen Feinerman: Added to Novo position, sees further upside.
  • Mike Coe: Entered at $55/share, likes its cash flow for a defensive position.

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6. McDonald's Earnings – Options Setup & Market Position

[44:14–46:39]

• McDonald's options market is pricing in a 4% move (twice average); today’s flow is bearish.
• Steve Grasso:

  “Gas prices and beef prices are problems, but McDonald’s is great at monetizing drive-thru and will push drinks for margin this summer.” [45:18]

• Mike Coe:

  “Better than 5% free cash flow yield. I think it’s okay. Better than the food maybe.” [46:40]

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Memorable Quotes

• Karen Feinerman (on Nvidia):

  “It is the center of everything… it’s very odd how it trades this way.” [03:03]

• Gene Munster (on Nvidia's narrative):

  “There’s always this ‘next year’ with Nvidia… The narrative is so positive, there’s just no opportunity for them to change it.” [03:46]

• Peter Boockvar (on the AI cycle):

  “With $680B expected to be spent this year on AI, it’s for real. But… you’re seeing a lot of double and triple ordering on fears companies won’t get what they need.” [16:05]

• Tom Rogers (on Disney+ and AI):

  “Imminently, you’ll see [AI] video models refined… indistinguishable from Hollywood productions, at incredibly low cost.” [28:04]

• Jared Holz (on Novo’s GLP-1 launch):

  “I think the Novo Nordisk launch is probably the most unheralded drug launch I can remember—two million prescriptions in over four months is kind of unheard of.” [39:03]

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Important Timestamps

• [01:00–11:10] – Semis, Nvidia, AI & Software lag
• [12:47–19:29] – Iran deal, market rally, AI trade cycle
• [23:26–29:38] – Disney Q1, streaming, parks, media landscape
• [31:43–33:35] – Joby Aviation, EVTOL industry prospects
• [34:04–37:28] – Global equities, oil, and international opportunities
• [38:40–43:47] – Novo/Lilly GLP-1 pill showdown
• [44:14–46:39] – McDonald’s earnings expectations, options market

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Takeaways

• Nvidia and the AI Ecosystem: Nvidia remains central to the AI and chip narrative, but most agree that future upside lies in the broader AI infrastructure and its partners.
• AI: Early Innings or Late Cycle?: While skepticism is growing, the majority see the AI trade as being in early-to-middle innings, with real-world utility just ramping.
• Disney at a Turning Point: Strength in parks/streaming is clear, but Disney+ faces increased competition and pressure to build new franchises and leverage AI for content cost savings.
• Joby and EVTOL: Early but real momentum, with military and commercial contracts suggesting broader horizons even amid pre-revenue skepticism.
• Global Markets are in Play: Peace optimism and falling oil especially benefit Europe, Japan, and China; valuations abroad are still relatively attractive.
• GLP-1 Oral Pills: Both Novo and Lilly are winners in the obesity/diabetes space, but Novo’s underappreciated pill launch could shift sentiment.
• Cautious Optimism: For both semis and pharma, exuberance persists, but double ordering and cyclical risk are flagged.

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For Investors:
Chip and AI infrastructure plays remain essential, but be cautious of double-ordering and cyclicality. Disney’s new streaming/AI strategy could take time to manifest in improved engagement. Keep watch for further international equity catch-up as oil/war pressures ease, and continue to monitor the fast-evolving obesity drug race for both winners and sector-wide implications.

Transcript

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[Melissa Lee]

Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The Nvidia effect. Partnerships with the chip giant have sent shares of companies like Corning, Firefly and others soaring. So why are Nvidia shares only now joining the party? We'll debate that. And going global. It's not just us. Equities in rally mode today. From Germany to Japan to China, we dig in on the international moves and where you can find opportunity right now. Plus, shares of Novo Nordisk hit nearly three month highs. A solid start for Disney's new CEO and counting down to McDonald's earnings. Will investors be loving burger chicken results tomorrow? We are heading to the options pits to find out. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from cdo. Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Karen Feiderman, Steve Grasso, Mike Coe on set for the hour. And surprise, surprise, a pop in from Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management. He was in town visiting, happened to come through the Nasdaq and now he's sitting on set with us here on FAST Money. Welcome, Gene.

[Gene Munster]

Great to be here, Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

Markets in rally mode once again today with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 notching another set of records. Dow adding more than 600 points, briefly trading above the 50k mark for the first time since February. The latest move coming as oil prices continue to pull back. WTI crude falling below $90 a barrel at its lows on hopes a resolution to the Iran wars in sight. We'll get more on that in just a minute but we start off with the latest tie up sending chip stocks higher. Nvidia announcing it will invest half a billion dollars in corning the news sending the fiber optics maker to record highs giving Nvidia more than 5% bump. It was Nvidia's best day in three months but interestingly only gets it back to where it was last week. The chip giant in fact has been underperforming the broader semi space mega cap tech and major indices over multiple time frames. Its gains in the past month less than half that of the SMH even though it's got market cap of $5 trillion. So the biggest company in the world at 25 times forward earnings, Nvidia is actually cheaper than the likes of Intel, AMD and Broadcom. So is today's move a sign the stock is finally catching up on this chip rally? How do you trade the name right now? Karen, what's your answer?

[Karen Feiderman]

Yeah, so I'm long, I've been long for a long time. I actually bought some butterflies today. Some sort of bull butterflies. Mike would probably maybe have been the seller in which case that wasn't good. So good for me. But anyway, I mean I agree it's just sort of absurd that everything around it, everything it touches trades at a wildly different level of hype or a much higher P E And you know, two weeks from today we'll see they'll report. I'd rather they go in with somewhat subdued performance. Right. The blower, the bar, the better. I think the quarter will be enormous. That won't be shocking to anyone but it's very odd how it trades this way given you know, it is the center of everything.

[Melissa Lee]

Now what is your take on what is going on here?

[Gene Munster]

I think the issue is what next year is going to look like and the street right now is looking for Capex and the hyperscalers to be up 10%. Nvidia talked about a 40% growth rate for next year. That's what Jensen's comments were recently at their developer conference. And my take Melissa is that I think the issue here is that it's just hard for investors to get over this hurdle that the party is going to end soon. And so we actually we big believers and we're still early second inning of AI but we actually sold some of our Nvidia recently just because we felt like the news is going to be great. But there's this always this next year, next year Next year. We don't know what's going to kick that. One last piece. When we think about our investments within Mega Cap, we look for companies that can have a changed narrative. And Nvidia, there's no opportunity for them to change the narrative. Apple can change the narrative to be incompetent, to be competent in AI. And in the case of Nvidia, the narrative is very positive. It's just hard to get that incremental turn on the multiple or as like

[Melissa Lee]

an Intel CPUs are now important and in shortage memory. It's now subscription memory. So that whole model has changed. What's your take?

[Mike Coe]

Yeah, I mean we, we own Nvidia. We continue to. We have it in several funds. You know, we have not been adding to it of late. You know, it's not expensive in my view and I kind of feel like you, you sort of have to stay. Stay in it. They've got proprietary technology is our thinking. You know, there's a lot of other things that if you simply looked at the multiple, you would say, oh, these things look very cheap. But they have typically been commodities. So, you know, we have exposure to other areas as well, including intel and Taiwan and all the rest of it. Micron even. But, you know, I think that Nvidia's proprietary technology is the reason we stay in the name.

[Steve Grasso]

So who would be the buyer if you're going, if this thing's going to go higher? Right now, everyone who wants to own in video.

[Melissa Lee]

Well, if it gets cheap enough.

[Steve Grasso]

I mean, because the large institutions. So I traded for 55 of the largest institutions most of my career. If they own it, they're slow to sell it.

[Melissa Lee]

Mm.

[Steve Grasso]

They're not quick to buy more. Right. So yes, if it gets cheap enough and it loses a certain percentage in their fund, then they're going to buy it. I don't, I don't think that's the case at this point. We haven't seen that. You see the retail investor buy it. They're not enough to move this ship where, where it is. I think Gene touched on it. The, the run in the stock has already been there. Right. In 2022, the stock was trading at 16 bucks. So when you look at it, when you think of it as a gaming stock, and then they did morph into recently with the sovere. So they have changed. And then the investments all around the street, so everybody who they're investing in hasn't popped yet. That's where the alpha is going to be. So you go to Lean Videos investing

[Karen Feiderman]

in hasn't popped yet.

[Steve Grasso]

Did Corning.

[Jared Holz]

Right.

[Steve Grasso]

So Corning, I'm talking about that investment right now. Like anyone that's going to, that you're really going to see that like Caterpillar is an AI stock now. So that's going to rally even though it's been rallying, but it's going to rally on the data center build out. Corning is going to be rallying because if they put them in their racks, you throw out the copper you put in the fiber. Now that could be exponential changer for a Corning. Is it an exponential change for Nvidia?

[Jared Holz]

No.

[Melissa Lee]

So that goes, that goes to James theory, you know that, that it's the narrative that's not changing for Nvidia back in the time that you're saying. Yeah, when it actually wouldn't remember when they had that huge revenue increase. Right. And that's, that's when the narrative changed for that stock. That's where the, the best gains for Nvidia happened after that time period. And so now. Yeah, to your point is that. But everybody else's narrative is changing.

[Gene Munster]

Overall narrative is changing. I would say that there's an important dynamic to all this too. And I still think Nvidia is a great company. But the one narrative that is consistent but still underappreciated is how early we still are. And I just want to quickly mention that anthropic news last night that was huge news relative to this deal with Google and then separately what they just announced tonight with Space X about more computer. Why is that happening? The reason why that's happening is the demand for these models, we're using them is going up exponentially. And so I think that there is a narrative around the broader AI trade that is going to be consistent but even get stronger. And it comes to in video. I just think that wall of worry is just going to nag the stock here.

[Steve Grasso]

But think about the early innings, right? In the early innings of this, Nvidia had no competition. Now they have all of their clients are their biggest competition and they've got the normal competition that's out there. No one would have ever thought AMD is their competition now. AMD is in their lane. So they went from in the early innings, zero competition to a herd of competition in the later innings. Could it still run? Yes. Is it going to run the same way it did? I don't think so.

[Mike Coe]

The next incremental dollar that comes into the market, where does most of it go? Most of that is going into Nvidia. I mean Capital inflows into the market are going. But I mean, look at most managers, I mean, the closet indexers, I mean, if they go into spy, if they go into the S&P 500, it's. The incremental dollar goes more into Nvidia than anything else. First of all, Corning is up, what, fourfold in the last 52 weeks or so? So I mean, I would have to disagree that that hasn't seen a run. I mean, it's run compared to Nvidia.

[Steve Grasso]

Compared to Nvidia from the beginning of this. From a teenager, from all the hype.

[Mike Coe]

I'm just talking about the last 52 weeks.

[Gene Munster]

Okay, all right, let me just, let me add one other perspective here. Two years ago, the issue with AI, with getting this going, was all about capacity and GPUs. And that's what Nvidia, the breathtaking move in the stock.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes.

[Gene Munster]

Now it's about power, it's about infrastructure, it's about optics. Like that incremental dollar. To your point, like the incremental dollar, Nvidia is getting it. But that's not where the, the majority of those incremental dollars are now going to this other, this infrastructure around it. I think there's still a big opportunity relative to that infrastructure trade.

[Melissa Lee]

So when we take a look at the disparity between the valuation of Nvidia and the rest of the, of the semi trade that has been rerated higher. Are those reratings in process? I mean, is there still more upside to go?

[Gene Munster]

I would just say that, like, I'll leave with a couple of fun predictions here. One is that we're still grossly underestimating how big this whole trade is going to be. A second is like one little flavor around that. It's just to, let's look at Apple, let's make the prediction that next year it's going to be hard to get a MacBook. I think it's going to be hard. I think what people are doing with cowork and codecs on their, on their laptops right now, I think those are types of ripples that the market's not quite thinking about right now.

[Melissa Lee]

So then my next question, I'll pose it to you since. All right, why not? If the trade is getting stronger in terms of memory, I mean, is the inverse trade software will die again? Like, will we be in that sort of, you know, paradigm again? Because what we saw in today's session was semis very strong, particularly these areas that are viewed as shortages or constraints or bottlenecks or Whatnot. And, and then we saw software just flat weak, Microsoft weak. I mean it continues here.

[Karen Feiderman]

I think so. I mean I think part of the, part of the cesspocalypse theory is fewer seats, for example, fewer, less pricing power. And I think that there absolutely is going to be survivors but I do think those things will weigh on the industry for a while. So that I think is here to stay. The thing though I want to also say about Nvidia though, it's not, it's all upside right now at the moment. Everything's frenzy. The more hype you can get, great. The better if that turns around. I would rather be in, in video than everything else. And one other thing that Lisa Sue, I'm sure you all saw her piece today with, with Jim talking about the monumental change in what they thought the ratio of GPUs to CPUs was right. And you know, I think that Nvidia could absolutely participate in that as well. So I'm, I'm a little perplexed that it's not trading better.

[Mike Coe]

I mean if you look at software, just how the stocks are performing, names like Microsoft are still well off their highs still well below the long term moving averages. This is an area that continues to be, even though they got a little bit of a bid today, continue to be under some pressure.

[Melissa Lee]

What do you think about the software sector?

[Gene Munster]

Pretty negative on software I think Karen, when you said that, you know, the headcount, less knowledge workers by the way, when we talk about less knowledge workers, let's just not talk about them, about students in college going to the workforce. It's people like me who's at risk here too. And there are going to be a lot of jobs that unfortunately are going to be lost. If we look at the ADP numbers from today, 109,000 64,000 though for education, health care, 25,000 construction and transportation. The growth is not coming from knowledge worker and I think that's the most basic piece. It's hard for me to imagine these software companies working if we have less knowledge workers.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, well let's get to back to the rally in the broader markets on potential progress in an Iran deal. CNBC's Megan Cassell's got the very latest there. Megan?

[Megan Cassella]

Melissa, there's reason for optimism here today that the US and Iran could be moving closer to a peace deal as the Iranians say they're evaluating a 14 point proposal from the U.S. now the details of the proposal aren't entirely clear but the gist of it according to reports is that it would center on a one page memo to end the war and then would launch 30 days of negotiations on the more difficult issues, including Iran's nuclear program. Now, President Trump said today that the US Would get Iran's highly enriched uranium as part of this plan and that Iran would stop operating its underground facilities, enrichment facilities, missile storage, that sort of thing. Axios and others have also reported that the deal includes a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and that the US Would then lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds in exchange. But two big caveats here, Iran has not yet agreed to any of this and some of it, including the export of highly enriched uranium, has been a red line for them in the past. President Trump has also long been critical of the loosening of sanctions and the unfreezing of funds dating back to the Obama deal. So we'll have to see the details of that piece of it as well. I'd sum it up this way. The president said today that he feels optimistic that the US Is closing in on a deal, but he also said that he's felt that way before. So he said, quote, we'll see what happens. Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Megan, thanks. Megan Casella, crude oil prices dropping more than 7% on hopes of an Iran deal. But our next guest says don't expect a return to $64 oil anytime soon. CBC Contributor One point, BFG Wealth Partners Peter Bocvar joins us now. Peter, great to have you with us.

[Peter Bocvar]

Finalissa.

[Melissa Lee]

First, I just want to get your take on the market. I mean, I was sort of joking with Mike Santoli the last hour. You know what's going to happen when the war actually ends and we said probably fall? I mean, I don't know, what are your thoughts?

[Peter Bocvar]

Well, the war is going to end. Trade really started in early April and then was furthered by the actual cease fire and has just obviously been roaring ever since. Of course, helped by the trade, particularly semis. I mean, I'm just in awe of this move in semis. You know, I look at Microns from a technical, technical perspective, having no opinion on the stock here trading at 135% above its 200 day moving average. The Sox in March 2000 peaked at 100% above its 200 day moving average. The NDX, the 14 day RSI, closed at its highest level since 2024. So it's just been unbelievable. I guess that begs the question, okay, when the war actually does end and there's confirmation and the street reopens do we. Sorry, this. Do we just keep on going?

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I guess that's a big unknown. Peter, I'm just, I'm just wondering, I mean, you're a smart market guy. We've known you for a long time. I mean, are you skeptical of the trade or do you believe in it? Because if you believe in it, then why is it so unfathomable that Micron trades where it trades? And do you think that the oil situation, in terms of if the war ended today, we'll still be in shortage in terms of we'll have to restock reserves, there's going to be an amount of time before production gets back to where it was. I mean there's a sort of recovery time that maybe we're not factoring in here. Does that trade get dismantled or disrupted because of that?

[Peter Bocvar]

So with $680 billion expected to be spent this year on AI, it's for real. However, the one thing that I would caution here is from what I am hearing in all the PMIs, I particularly heard it from CDW today whose stock fell 20%. This company sells software hardware services throughout the entire tech ecosystem. They specifically said they are seeing their customers front running orders ahead of price increases and worries about supply shortages. So I'm pretty confident that you are seeing a lot of double and triple ordering on fears that companies are not going to get what they need. Now the market is not thinking that right now. But that's the one caveat I have to this move higher in this trade.

[Melissa Lee]

Are you thinking that, Gene?

[Gene Munster]

I'm curious. I'm just. From my perspective, it comes down to what's the utility of AI today? Have we actually. How many companies can tangibly say that this is having a big impact on their business? And there's two. It's Google with search and outside of the cloud and it's Meta with our advertising businesses. And when the argument that we're somehow reaching a top here just doesn't jive with what we're seeing in the pace that these companies are trying to implement. And the fact, the reality of how early again, come back to. If we look at 1 example Physical AI piece Autonomous rideshares between Waymo and Tesla, Lyft and uber, it'll be 2% of the total miles driven this year. I mean we're still scratching the surface and so I understand that's a well traveled topic. We're still scratching the surface, but I think it's actually contrarian right now to be bullish on the trade.

[Melissa Lee]

Hmm. So Peter, back to you, you don't have. It sounds like you have questions about the, how solid the trade is. And it's obviously, obviously right now a big driver of the market. So are you seeing, are you skeptical where the markets are right here in terms of valuations, terms of level, and are we just destined for a sort of reckoning?

[Peter Bocvar]

I mean, a market that's led by semis, eventually you do hit a reckoning, but for all I know, it can be 2027 before that actually happens. I mean, the market is differentiating amongst the tech trade. You know, Gene talked about earlier about weakness in tech. I'm sorry, weakness in software. We're seeing a bifurcated Mag 7 because the excessive spenders, like Meta, for example, are getting hurt while the receivers of that spend are benefiting tremendously. So it's sort of like this three pocket tech trade, and it depends on which are that you're in, will determine how your stock is going to trade with the obvious beneficiary, those that are saying, okay, show me that $680 billion, they're doing the best now, of course, we'll overdo it. And I've been doing this long enough to know that storage and memory are the most cyclical parts of the market. And I know people are telling me, oh well, this time is different, it's an oligopoly and maybe the case. I just know that it's a commodity that they're selling. Eventually this will hit a wall, but right now it's party on.

[Melissa Lee]

Peter, always great to speak with you. Thank you.

[Peter Bocvar]

Thanks. Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

Peter Brookbart. Peter mentioned Meta. Meta has also been sort of sitting out of this party. Karen, Meta is a large position of yours.

[Karen Feiderman]

It is. Google and Amazon are larger now, both from decreasing Meta, but also Meta decreasing itself, which isn't delightful, but I mean, it's. If they were to come out tomorrow and say, that's it, we give up. Right.

[Melissa Lee]

Does the stock rally?

[Karen Feiderman]

Absolutely. It goes nuts. I think so. I understand what he's saying. Although Google, you could say they are. I mean, they're both, they're spending and they're growing and it's worth it.

[Melissa Lee]

And they're selling chips and they're selling cars.

[Karen Feiderman]

And I go back again and again to Andy Jassy talking about this is not a Hypester kind of guy. Talking about the extraordinary opportunity. They've never seen anything like it. I want them spending that money. What we know that it's working for the underlying part of Meta's business. Right? The advertising business, doing great. Although that kind of tempered guidance for the next quarter. But you know, there's a fear there's so many giant spenders out there, not every single one's going to get the return on capital that they need, right?

[Melissa Lee]

Jean, quick last thoughts on Metta Matter.

[Gene Munster]

We recently sold that we still own Google, Amazon, Apple and from our perspective it's just that incremental piece wasn't there 33% growth down to 28% like you mentioned, better places to be.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Gene, it's great to see you in.

[Gene Munster]

Thanks for having me. Super fun.

[Melissa Lee]

What a lucky coincidence you have to walk through the NASDAQ

[Steve Grasso]

existed.

[Melissa Lee]

It's real. Gene Munster here. All right, see you next time.

[Karen Feiderman]

Who else is downstairs?

[Melissa Lee]

I don't know. We'll find out coming up. A Touch of Magic for Disney the results Feeling the media giants jump today and the stage it set so early in Josh demaro's tenure. Plus shares of Joby taking off all the details from the Evtol company's latest report and what when you can expect to catch a ride? If you want to catch a ride, don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Disney shares leading the Dow today, jumping almost 8%. The media giant post posting better than expected revenues driven by strength in its parks and streaming businesses. It was the company's first earnings report under new CEO Josh d'. Amero. CNBC founder and current contributor Tom Rogers joins us with his reaction. Tom was the first president of NBC Cable and is now senior adviser to CNBC's parent company, Versant Media. Tom, always great to have you with us.

[Tom Rogers]

Thanks for having me.

[Melissa Lee]

So a great first quarter for CEO. He didn't kitchen sink it. Did you like his message that he wants to be more impactful? When it comes to the fans who

[Tom Rogers]

come to Disney, you can't disagree with the message. Of course they want the company to be more impactful. I think his idea of having Disney plus serve as a broader portal of some kind to share the wealth of Disney across all the individual silos. It has to bring people in to experience more of Disney than they may currently do, but that's a building process. They first got to get the putting together of Disney plus and Hulu right to make sure that those two sites coming together as services really have the kind of personalized recommendation and user interface that it needs. They've had some success bringing ESPN into a bundle and lowering churn for all the Disney services, which was not very enviable when they were all man for themselves with each service. But I think they got to do better than that and really show how sports contributes to making a family bundle of Disney, general entertainment, kids entertainment, sports, all in one in a cohesive way that really shows that it's a destination in the streaming world that you want to stay at. The problem with all that is they're still weak on engagement. It's great to combine sites and have a wealth of programming there, but they really have been pretty flat when it comes to viewership and actually YouTube has overtaken Disney in terms of total company viewership. And when Paramount Warner finally come together, they will probably have greater total viewership even than YouTube. And Disney hasn't used that broader company viewership to really drive engagement that well to do that you need more general entertainment programming. Problem is they got two big mouths to feed. They got to feed the capital expense 60 billion of parks and cruises and they got to feed this sports which is almost half their total content spending. About to get even more when the NFL renegotiation goes through. And in their general entertainment programming needed to drive engagement is going to get squeezed. And that's where I comes in.

[Melissa Lee]

Right. So yesterday on Squawk Box you were saying that they really need to have a new franchise to sort of build off this flywheel. Do they need a lot of money to do that now or is it possible with AI that that's spend on a new franchise is actually less than it had been in the past?

[Tom Rogers]

Well, in there is another great balancing act with all their entertainment programming. How much can they spend on broader entertainment that isn't really geared could coming up with those new franchises. They mentioned Zootopia to how well it done. Clear example of some, but they need more of those. They really haven't had great franchises. And I'm always amazed that Bluey A acquisition is by far the biggest show on Disney plus not being produced by Disney at all. I think what I can do is provide general entertainment programming at a high, high quality level at incredibly lower cost. We haven't seen it yet. It's going to be shown this year. It's imminent, it's going to happen. And the industry as a whole is going to have to grapple with with it. Because on the one hand it helps deal with the need for general entertainment programming where you have two other mouths that feed that, that skip in those budgets. But on the other hand it lowers the competitive advantages that the Disney's and the Netflix have. If you can have terrific high quality programming but not need the big budgets in order to to access that program.

[Karen Feiderman]

Sure.

[Melissa Lee]

Maybe this is a Disney related question, maybe not Tom, but how far are we do you think from the day when a kid can speak into an iPad or a TV and say I want a show about a baby elephant and a pink rabbit going to the circus and meeting a mouse and then it gets generated.

[Tom Rogers]

You can do that today and most people think the quality of it is slop. But what you will find I think imminently is some pretty sophisticated building on those video models that generate that stuff today that refine the outputs in a way that creates something that is indistinguishable from the best Hollywood productions and that's beyond a single kid coming out of college. But that level of sophisticated AI use that's going to generate incredibly high quality at incredibly low cost is right around the corner.

[Melissa Lee]

Wow, Tom, it's always great to speak with you. Thank you.

[Tom Rogers]

Thanks for having me.

[Melissa Lee]

Tom Rogers, what do you make of Disney?

[Steve Grasso]

So when you look at their operating income from streaming and it jumps 88% I think that's the, that's the tell. They've somehow overnight become profitable and figured out the secret weapon as to how to turn that up a notch or two notches. Their margins drastically jumped above 10 and they said that's the floor. So if the margins the floor is going to be 10 only upside operating income is up. I think it's still by Mike.

[Mike Coe]

You know, sports were absolutely one of the reasons that Disney was a marquee property for the longest time thanks to espn. And you know we have seen the top line come in as a result and now they are competing with the likes of YouTube. Very deep pockets and a very compelling offering. I can tell you that. We see a lot of sports in our own house on the, on YouTube where you can watch four games at once.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Mike Coe]

And that is a capital intensive business as much as the parks and boats are too. You have to compete with Alphabet now that's a tough competitor if you can spend money.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up. Shares of Joby lifting off after the company's latest earnings report. Why investors are piling in even before commercial certification. Plus stocks here at home aren't the only ones in rally mode. How developments in the Middle east could be giving global equities the go ahead. You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq MarketSite in times Square. Back right after this.

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money Joby Aviation. Flying 21% after posting better than expected sales last night. The electric vertical takeoff and landing company evtol did see a bigger loss than expected for the quarter. Joby aircraft aren't yet approved for commercial service, but the company expects to begin operations later this year. Reported revenues coming mostly from its acquisition of the Blade Air Taxi service last August. Other evtol stocks such as Archer Aviation, Beta Technologies and Ehang also higher today. Grassley, you've been in this one.

[Steve Grasso]

Yeah, so I'm in it through options now and I've owned the equity as well. I think it was lumped in there with when the Trump administration came in, it was lumped in as an EV and they thought all EVs were going to suffer under a Trump presidency because he was more fossil fuel focused. You know, this is a world away from an EV car.

[Gene Munster]

This is.

[Steve Grasso]

And we've seen them, they did the presser going from New York City to jfk. It's really becoming tangible. They have the pre cert. So as you said, the intro, they're looking for passengers back end of 2026. I think it's really, they are partners with Toyota, they have partners with Delta, they have, they have military contracts now. So this is not a what if. This is a when opportunity. And both of them are still under pressure.

[Jared Holz]

Right.

[Steve Grasso]

Joby is down for the year, Archer is down for the year. I think there's a huge Runway, not that they need one because they can do a vertical takeoff and landing. And I think this is something where people are just going to start discovering them. I'm in it now, but I'm really fascinated with, with the spot.

[Melissa Lee]

You fly a lot, you travel a lot.

[Mike Coe]

Not as much as I used to, but yes, yes, I do. I mean, am I getting on one of these things? Not necessarily. Do I think it's a $10 billion company on the back potentially of military contracts and defense alone? Yeah, sure, I think it could be. I mean it's obviously early days and speculative. We're talking about a company it's basically pre revenue still, right?

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, overseas opportunities. The market seeing even bigger gains in the US Today. And how to play the moves now. More on what is driving international stocks when Fast Money returns.

[Peter Bocvar]

Missed a moment of fast.

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Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to fast money. Stocks surging and oil pulling back on optimism. The U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement to end the war. The Dow jumping more than 600 points. Rates the S&P climbing one and a half percent, closing above 7,300 for the first time. The NASDAQ leading the gains surging 2%. Those two indices both closing at record highs. WTI crude meantime dropping more than 7%, settling just above $95 a barrel. Uber driving higher today. Shares up 8 1/2% after the rideshare company issued higher than expected bookings guidance. The stock still down 3% this year. CBS also getting a boost jumping nearly 8%. The the company blew past first quarter earnings and revenue estimates and raised the 2026 guidance thanks to improvement in its insurance business. And do not miss Jim's exclusive interview with the president and CEO of cvs. That is tonight on Mad Money at the top of the hour. Some more after hours action here. Arm holdings and App Love and both topping earnings and revenue estimates snap lower as revenue comes in in line with estimates. Doordash jumping after topping EPS expectations in the Zillow, beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. That stock though is lower. Meantime, global Equity is rallying along with US Stocks today. China, Japan, Germany and more jumping as investors hope progress in the Middle east could open the door for international market gains. China Tech seeing particular strength. Shares of Alibaba having their best day since January. I mean, there's a number of things going on here, Karen. Oil being down really helps relieve some of the pressure there. But the hopes that the oil war is going to be over. The China tech trade is very interesting.

[Karen Feiderman]

The China tech trade is very interesting. They would be the beneficiary as well. All of Europe, right? This is a disaster for them. So I mean, I think the DAX turned positive after today, so that's been a nice run. So I have exposure there. I have exposure in Mexico, which is somewhat more isolated, and Japan, which has some other machinations going on of the yen, and I mean, some wild swings, but I think that's all good for equities there. So I'm staying long that.

[Mike Coe]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, a lot of Japanese companies remain quite cheap. Obviously. The tumult that's been going on with the yen, though, can provide potential tailwinds for some of those companies. And so I think that's definitely a benefit. German stocks are up less than, what, 20% in the last five years. I mean, these things also are quite dirt cheap and all of them have been completely suppressed by what's been going on geopolitically because they're more affected by it than we are. So they are importing more inflation. Everybody goes to the pump here, all panicked about inflation. But these other places are importing a lot more inflation than we are because we produce, at least in barrels of oil equivalent what we use.

[Melissa Lee]

We were just talking about, even if the war ended today, there's still going to be about. I mean, there's still so much shortage that is going on around the world in terms of production not coming back online, in terms of, you know, billion barrels. Right.

[Mike Coe]

A billion barrels. We were short 400, 400 million in the SPR, call it 10 a day for two months coming through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a really big logistical problem. It's 6,000 miles from the Persian Gulf to get to Asia, where a lot of the shortages exist. So if you run a Singapore refinery, I mean, it's.

[Melissa Lee]

So isn't the economic sort of the economic potential danger? I mean, they still exist, though. I mean, if the war ends today, the.

[Mike Coe]

The energy shock absorber has been completely compressed. There's pretty, pretty much nothing left. But the flip side of it is that a lot of these areas, like the things that Karen's invested in, have already been compressed themselves so much that I kind of feel like that damage is baked into the cake.

[Steve Grasso]

And the good news is the market always looks through these things.

[Tom Rogers]

Right.

[Steve Grasso]

So the market always looks through six, eight months. And looking towards, if you look at the back end of the curve, it's lower. And then also when you talk about Alibaba, we have the Trump XI meetings next week, so that's going to be a catalyst to it. And I think Trump is playing it nice with Iran and playing a little more passive ahead of those meetings. You could see if Those meetings go bad, the China tech trade comes off the table and the market maybe comes

[Melissa Lee]

back in coming up trimming weight but packing on the profits, how would Gobi pill sales are fueling a long lagging Novo Nordisk and what it could mean for the pharma company's bottom line? Mizzou host Jared Holz will join us next to dig into it all when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Novo Nordisk rising 2% after reporting strong Q1 sales bolstered by its Wegovy pill. The company raising GUID and now expects a smaller decline in full year sales and profit. Though still trailing Eli Lilly in stock performance, Novo is leading in prescriptions for its pill, saying over a million people have access oral Wegovy since January. Lilly said Last week over 20,000 people have started on its Foundeo pill since April 1st. That's its launch date. For more, let's bring in Mizuho health care specialist Jared Holds. Jared, great to have you with us.

[Jared Holz]

Thank you. Appreciate it.

[Melissa Lee]

Did you think it was a good report?

[Jared Holz]

Yeah, I did. I mean, I think when you look at sort of on balance what's going on at Novo and, and the launch of the Oral plus, you know, we go V in general looking pretty solid and the stock at multi year lows. I thought it was pretty good. Yeah.

[Melissa Lee]

Do you think that there is going to be this catch of trade that continues? I mean, I think what's interesting about Eli Lilly is that, you know, the full sort of campaign direct to consumer hasn't started yet. And I just wonder, you know, when people start understanding what Foundao is, which is a brand new name for a drug, they might actually try it.

[Jared Holz]

Yeah, I think both of these drugs are going to be very big. I mean the market I think over time will probably wind up migrating towards oral. It's just, it's easier. Oral therapies in pharma and biotech tend to do very well for obvious reasons. It's a lot simpler, especially if you're averse to the weekly injections. And so I think we're on the precipice of blockbusters for both companies. I think the Novo Nordisk launch is probably the most unheralded drug launch that I can remember. I mean, 2 million prescriptions written within 4, maybe a little bit over 4 months is kind of unheard of. And so I'm still really surprised that the street hasn't rallied around it more. But you know, it's going to take time for sentiment in this stock to improve. Just given years of disappointment.

[Karen Feiderman]

It's Karen, thanks for being on. I mean maybe that's just the way they do it in Denmark, very low key. They don't really want anyone to know. I'm not sure, but if you could advise them to, you know, clearly they traded a discount of 50% of the Lilly valuation. Granted Lilly has some other things, but if you could advise them, what would you tell them to do?

[Jared Holz]

Well, I think it's just all about getting new patients onto the oral drug and hoping that the efficacy and the tolerability for most patients are good. And once you get a new patient on one of their drugs, they're more than likely to stay barring some reimbursement change. So I think the fact that you have a couple million people on the drug is a really good start. I think just attack the market, obviously drive the commercial success of the drug and not prevent Lilly from doing well, but at least get 50% market share in the oral market and then worry about the pipeline and do some deals. But I just think it's about getting that incremental patient on drug and keeping them on so that you can own the market here for a while.

[Steve Grasso]

So Jared, when I look at the three year charts on both of these, it's a no brainer. It doesn't look like, it doesn't look like Novo is going to do anything to catch up to Lilly even. Even though the headlines can be positive for that. When you sit in your seat, look through the M and A and you look through the patent cliff happening. What's your most exciting name as we're coming to the close on the interview?

[Jared Holz]

Well, I'm kind of just excited to see what Novo Nordisk does. I mean they could do a variety of things in cardiometric, Cardio Metabolic for sure. They keep on talking about obesity is something they want to continue to add to sort of alluding to the fact that they don't think their pipeline is complete. So I think, you know, looking across the spectrum of what they could buy in Cardio Metabolic, there's a bunch of companies that sort of would fit that profile. We've talked about structure before, Cytokinetics, Ascend as there are a bunch of things that they could potentially buy. I mean those are three of hundreds of potential deals they could do. So I don't have like a, you know, a name that they need to be buying but I think that they're very forthcoming that they're going to be a buyer and there, there's a lot to choose from. I think it just sort of like underscores the, the environment that we're in for business development in general.

[Melissa Lee]

You know, the CEO of Novo had some interesting comments about how they, they decided to go with their form peptide versus small molecule, which is what Eli Lilly and a lot of other competitors have gone through. It's much easier to manufacture the small molecule. But in the end, the route that that Novo has chosen will be the way, I mean, it's more effective in terms of weight loss, etc. Do you agree that in the end that that will prove to be a superior treatment that doctors. Is that what is behind the discrepancy in scripts right now, do you think?

[Jared Holz]

I don't really know. I mean, the small molecule that, that Lilly is developing and selling I think is logistically easier.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Jared Holz]

Time manufacturing is something that Novo has an expertise in. So I think they've been able to do a really good job and they were first to market here. I think, you know, we, we often forget that when they launched the injectable they had supply constraints right off of the bat. That doesn't seem like it's the case here. I don't know whether it's better. Really, really hard to say. I think both of these drugs can be blockbusters and we'll see what happens.

[Melissa Lee]

Right? Jared, thanks for joining us. Always great to speak with you. Jared Hulse, feeling better about your Novo now?

[Karen Feiderman]

Yes, added some more. So that was good. But I mean, it's still got a long, long way to go. If I own none. I came to it today, right here. I would buy it.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. How about you?

[Mike Coe]

Yeah, same thing. Bought it early, actually. I thought 55 was a pretty nice level to start getting into. Into it. I mean, look, you have a nice margin of safety at the valuation and the cash flow.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, for sure. Coming up, what options traders are ordering up for McDonald's ahead of its earnings report tomorrow morning and whether the fast food chain can deliver when results cross the wires. More fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. We are setting the table for McDonald's earnings tomorrow before they open. The fast food stock hitting its lowest level since last January, now down 7% so far this year. Options traders are betting we could see a big move afterwards. Results hit. Mike, what do you see?

[Mike Coe]

Yeah, I mean, big for McDonald's, not big relative to some of the names that we've been talking about a lot already today. This is not one that typically moves very much after earnings. About 2% on average. Right now the options market is implying almost two times that amount. But today's flow, kind of like the stock itself, was bearish. The most active contracts were the week ending 270 puts. We saw about 3,000 of those trading puts traded overall, about three times their average daily put volume. So right now it seems like the pressure remains.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I mean gas prices are a huge problem.

[Steve Grasso]

Gas prices are a problem. Beef, beef prices are a problem. They're really great at managing their SKUs. The items that they sell, they're really great at monetizing the drive thru. And this is an area you go back a year where the stock did start to base. So I'd be willing to take a shot here. I think they're going drinks. Our margins on drinks are 85%. So I think you're going to see a huge push coming into summer with drinks. Maybe they can make a margin there that they're losing in.

[Melissa Lee]

Well they have a whole beverage menu, right. Energy drinks in addition to all the coffee that they're selling. And of course that, I mean you're talking Starbucks territory a little bit.

[Karen Feiderman]

No, no, no protein drinks yet.

[Melissa Lee]

I don't think so because I bet that's in the offing. At some point they grind the nuggets

[Mike Coe]

into a,

[Karen Feiderman]

I mean it's a market to market ish multiple. Probably deserves something better than that but I just haven't been that interested in it.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean at some point you think if a consumer is really under stress, maybe you go to McDonald's.

[Mike Coe]

You know the thing that McDonald's always had going for them in an inflationary environment was because of their model, sort of the franchise model that their royalties racked with the inflation price but their expenses, expenses didn't necessarily go the same way. And so that was kind of a benefit. Seeing them now at slightly below a market multiple. Better than 5% free cash flow yield. I think it's okay. How about that?

[Melissa Lee]

All right.

[Mike Coe]

Better than the food maybe.

[Melissa Lee]

Depends if you're five next final trades, Final trade time. Karen.

[Karen Feiderman]

Yes. So oih every time oil drops I'm gonna buy some more. And happy birthday to Tim Seymour today.

[Melissa Lee]

Timote, Timbo Michael.

[Mike Coe]

Happy birthday Tim. Returning to profitability next year, Honda Motor

[Steve Grasso]

HMC Steve Corning update today might give a little bit back but I think ultimately pops over 200.

[Melissa Lee]

Thanks for watching fast. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money Jim Cramer starts right now.

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All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer. Your data lives everywhere on prem in the cloud across apps. Bring it all together with Everpure, the platform that acts like a living system, delivering the latest in data performance, security and innovation without ever slowing you down. Sophisticated enough to anticipate your ever changing data needs, yet simple enough to feel like second nature. Tame your data chaos with Everpure and make storage and data management the simplest part of your business. Visit everpuredata.com to learn more.