
Another crack in the housing sector’s foundation, as construction spending fell for a second straight month. The impact its having on homebuilders, housing retailers, and how this morning’s manufacturing data is moving the risk-off trade. Plus A gas gamble in the last frontier. Why the White House is pushing the Alaskan LNG project, and if the costs outweigh the benefits. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
Live in an marketplace in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Housing headaches. From builders to construction equipment to home furnishing, a wrecking ball coming for anything in the housing trade today. Can the group get back on solid foundations? We'll debate that. Plus a market mystery. Bond yields rising even as the rest of the risk off trade catches a bit. What's behind the not so parallel moves? And what does it say about what is next for the markets? And later, big deals in biotech. All the headlines out of the ASCO conference in Chicago. Time to buy Disney. Why the chartmaster is suddenly bullish on the House of Mouse. And live from the Arctic, Brian Sullivan joins us from Alaska with the latest on one of the biggest US Energy infrastructure projects in decades. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from studio Be at the nasdaq. I'm the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Guy Damie and Julie Beal. We're going to get to that market mystery in just a few minutes, but we start off with the latest blow to a housing sector already on a shaky foundation. Construction spending falling in May for a third strai month as economic uncertainty mounts and mortgage rates say high. That sent the XHP homebuilder ETF to its lowest close since late April. The group now down 11% on the year. Big names like Dr. Horton Lennar, Toll Brothers, KB Home all seeing losses. But the bleeding doesn't stop there. Housing adjacent names like Restoration Hardware plunging more than 7% while our house, Stanley Black and Decker Williams Sonoma also kicked off the week in the red. So it's nothing seeming to work in the space recently. How do you play the housing names if at all, Guy?
Tim Seymour
I think you stay away and we've been pretty consistent on this one. They all sort of peaked out and I'm looking, I mean right around November of last year and it's been a basically a straight line lower now. Things have bounced since April like you know, a lot of the broader market has. But with that said, it hasn't been a pretty robust bounce. And I will tell you, I mean you could trade, in my opinion, you could trade down the levels that we saw in the fall of 2023, which by the way coincides with the low of the, of the TLT. If you remember, that's when 10 year yields went higher. So definitely about yields. I think it's also about the employment picture.
Melissa Lee
Yes, it's also about consumer confidence. I mean this is, these are April numbers. April consumer confidence is terrible. May we saw a bounce back, we could see a bounce back a little bit in May in terms of housing activity.
Guy Adami
I think we probably will. In fact, I think based upon just, you know, what the market has done, there is some correlation to that. But you know, back to the pain in the housing sector and really where things peaked, I mean 2024 overall was the worst week for weekly mortgage applications since that data was put together back. I don't know, it was even pre 2008. So some of those numbers were starting to get better in the first quarter and I think as of Liberation day they probably get worse. But back to the homebuilders, I mean there have been some that have been trading just on interest rate sensitivity alone and I think you can only go to the, well so many times on that trade. I think you also got to a place where the housing that the homebuilders were, you know, not terribly priced in terms of valuation but at some point also those that were eating some part of the financing cost and building that into the overall margin profile. You know, it's, it's. So look, I think we're still in a difficult place. I think the consumer, despite a respite, I think is still somewhat strapped. But you know, again, soft data is what it is. The hard data hasn't been that bad.
Julie Beal
So I mean the underpinning for sure is rates, right? And if we look at the 30 year, that's just going to be such a super strong headwind and, and this cycle I think that, you know, we talked, Tim talked about what they eat in terms of lower rates. They don't seem to be so inclined to continue while they face some other margin pressures. I mean, I look at something like copper today going up a lot. That's probably not great. And they've had, you know, it's been a difficult time. So my biggest exposure, single biggest exposure related to housing is Zillow and I love that Asset Light model. Remember when they did that terrible foray into owning houses and flipping them? They got out of that. But until we see a lot more activity, this platform isn't going to be able to show how profitable it can really, really be.
Melissa Lee
They've also been making a lot of leeway into rentals, right?
Julie Beal
Yes, that has, is a great, excellent point. Thank you for bringing that up. That has been an excellent addition for them. But costar is also in that space and trying to, you know, they're all trying to eat each other's lunch. Redfin, we saw a deal there. So it's competitive, but we just need more volume and this rate things. Also own Home Depot, Lowe's, that's not.
Melissa Lee
Great for them either. I mean, speaking of eating, some of the costs for a mortgage on the part of the homebuilders, Julie, I mean I read that you can get a mortgage for 5% through a lot of these major homebuilders. You compare to a mortgage rate of 6.79% on a 30 year. What are they eating for? How long can they do this? And the fact that we are seeing, you know, some resistance forming on the part of the consumer to diving in even with those buy downs, you know, that's a consumer who's, who's still on the sidelines.
Steve Eisman
Yeah, I think it's exactly the rate. I think is the much larger picture and driver in terms of what's happening with this business. The biggest challenge that they have is that really no one wants to pay these higher rates. And not only that, you still have a consumer that is locked into a lot of their long term mortgages and with no real rate relief in sight. You know, it's like I listen to a lot of these home builder conference calls and they all talk about this kind of vanishing horizon of when interest rates come down. And, and you know, I think what's important to mention is like yes, we are technically in restrictive territory, but we're not super high on a relative basis historically in terms of interest rates. It's just most home buyers are really used to rates being much lower. So I think the real question is, is what does this business model look like if rates kind of stay, you know, maybe 100 basis points lower than they are right now. Are these businesses really as robust? Are they always going to have to offer these discounted rates?
Melissa Lee
Well, meantime, let's get to a major riddle forming in the markets today. On top of that weak construction number, the ISM manufacturing index dropping for a fourth straight month. That disappointing data helped traditional safety trades like gold rally. The precious metals settling at its highest in nearly a month. Bonds on the other hand, couldn't seem to catch a bid. The 30 year yield hitting 5% again while the 10 year closed back on in on 4.5%. So why isn't this part of the risk off trade working in light of signs of a weakening economy? We were musing about this on our 12:30 call that we have on a daily basis.
Guy Adami
We were musing, we muse about many things. In fact, I think Guy was musing about how you deal with your Yankees. He had a tough weekend in L.
Tim Seymour
A and I mean you take, you.
Guy Adami
Could have pitched the ninth inning on Saturday better.
Tim Seymour
That's the thing about baseball, they play 162 Tim. I don't get overly excited in May and June like some Met fans that.
Guy Adami
I know well, we pay, we play.
Melissa Lee
We shouldn't be musing on the show too.
Guy Adami
No, and we play every day here too as well. So you know, if you think about today's market, it was the combination of, I think the most important forces right now, which are the Fed, we had Waller yesterday, we had Goolsbee today, we had some Powell rhetoric sprinkling through that the Fed actually could be closer to rate cuts. This was the most recent rhetoric and that's obviously good for the markets. I think if you look at where we are seeing leadership again from the market, it's not massive and it's not, it's not out of control. But I look at this relative performance of the NASDAQ to the S and P and we're inching back to levels where we're getting close to the all time highs. The index is where it is. But as we say, we were at relative highs back in July of 2024. So that stuff's interesting to me. Semiconductors continue to still outperform a little bit. The dollar weaker. I realize if you're looking at a weaker dollar and a weaker treasury market and a weaker equity market, we start thinking about all those things around deficit in the rest of the world. But for equities just in isolation, a weaker dollar for a lot of these companies is actually very strong. I think that was part of the the uptrade today.
Julie Beal
So I think part of it though you talk about the deficit. I think that for sure, you know, there was a story today on Pimco and Double line is sort of on strike. Right. Not willing to be in the long bond and you know, wondering, all right, as this bill makes its way, what will it end up being in terms of how much it will add to the deficit? And I don't know, it's at some point, who knows when, but maybe that's just starting to weigh now. We'll have to see how they choose to fund. Right. Probably towards the front end of the curve, probably bills.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Julie Beal
But is there, is there another reason, is it that people think the tariffs will be inflation coming back later or soon? I don't know.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Tim Seymour
Jamie Dimon, I'm sure you talked about this on Friday, but he obviously talked about another. I don't know exactly what he said, but disruption will crack. You know their position for 5%. They said they'll do very well and I absolutely believe them. But you know, when he says things like that, you don't have to agree with them, but I think you absolutely have to listen. And I think if the economy, the soft data wasn't as soft as it was, yields would be much higher. That's the, the only thing helping the bond market right now is the fact that the economy is weakened. I think, I mean that's somewhat, I mean, counterintuitive. I mean that's what you have to be rooting for if you want rates lower. But I still think 10 year yields are going much higher from here.
Julie Beal
Just one more thing. What's helped a lot in the inflation picture is energy so low. Right. That's been a huge tailwind for getting CPI down. But so now if that turns right, we saw nice pop today, right. Move today in energy.
Melissa Lee
Definitely. Right. Well, one of the investors profiled in the big short is not willing to take on a lot of risk. Right now let's bring in Steve Eisman, host of the Real Eisman Playbook podcast. He's former senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. Steve, great to have you with us.
Carter Worth
Thanks for having me back.
Melissa Lee
Podcaster.
Tim Seymour
Well, I mean, look, he goes from Steve Eisman, suit, tie, and now he's.
Melissa Lee
Got a podcast wardrobe.
Tim Seymour
He always looks good, though.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Valerie. Thanks to Valerie.
Carter Worth
Anyway, my wardrobe has been redone by.
Melissa Lee
My wife and daughters, as it should be. All right, so in terms of not willing to take risks, why, why not? Are you worried about valuations now? What is your biggest concern?
Carter Worth
I have one concern, and that's tariffs. That's it. I mean, the market's gotten pretty complacent about it. But, you know, in any trade negotiation, the details really matter. And I think negotiating with Europe about tariffs is incredibly complicated because each country effectively has a veto on any issue that it wants, that thinks it's important. And I don't know what's going to happen with China. I don't know how to hand. I just don't how to handicap this because it's just too many balls in the air. So, I mean, I'm long only. I've taken some risks down and. And I'm just sitting pat.
Melissa Lee
What do you make of the action in the bond market? And I know, you know, we've been on a number of panels in the past and you said, I can't think about the deficit. It matters until it matters.
Carter Worth
Same way. I mean, you were talking Jamie Dimon before. Every couple of years. With all due respect to Jamie Dimon, who's a great CEO, Jamie Dimon likes to get on his soapbox and start uttering nattering nabobs of negativism.
Guy Adami
Hold on. Nattering nabobs?
Carter Worth
Nabobs of negativism. That's actually from.
Guy Adami
That's alliteration guy.
Carter Worth
Just so you know, what we call. William Safire wrote that in the 70s for Spiro Agnew. It was actually very famous in its day. I like to use it once in a blue movie.
Guy Adami
That was the time it was well done.
Carter Worth
You know, so when, when Jamie gets on that, you know, nabob post soapbox of his, I tend not to pay too much attention.
Melissa Lee
All right, so you don't want to take a lot, but you're. But you're still long only. And you're still long and you're still in. I would assume mag 7 heavily.
Carter Worth
I am.
Melissa Lee
So you're not. Have you changed that position at all? Lightened up, I mean, a little bit.
Carter Worth
On pretty much everything, but pretty invested.
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
Julie Beal
So I think it was the last, last time that I was on. When you were on, you talked about in video and Jensen one.
Carter Worth
Yes.
Julie Beal
And how you have never seen anyone sort of. I don't know if it was confident or, or something to express confidence.
Carter Worth
I mean, those numbers were wild.
Julie Beal
Yes. So that was a while.
Carter Worth
When you think about it, this. What is this? A $3 trillion company whose revenue grew 69%. I mean, it's unbelievable when you think about it. It. So I just think the AI revolution is early. But, you know, God forbid there's a trade war. None of that will matter in the near term. It just won't.
Tim Seymour
What do you make of the gold market, Steve? Because I mean it sells off but then it comes back on days like today, raging back. Karen mentioned copper. I mean, I think the gold market is trying to tell us all something. Thoughts?
Carter Worth
I'm not a gold guy. I tend not to pay too much attention to gold. I really don't.
Guy Adami
So by the way, Steve, it is a real Don Johnson look. You're working tonight. And so that's, I'm using that as.
Carter Worth
My wife, Hope and daughter hopefully are watching and they're taking the compliment 100%. 100%.
Guy Adami
It's a compliment. And that was probably when Miami Vice was run. That was probably the last time we balanced the budget. Now, I know you don't care about the deficit on some level, but I do think it's relevant at least when, at least around the times it appears that this administration blinked when we had a 10 year auction and there was some, there was certainly the rest of the world was paying attention and we were seeing a spike in the tenure that was a combination of a lot of themes you've at least listened to for years. A lot of these themes aren't new. In fact, you, you know, not new.
Carter Worth
They're 40 years old.
Guy Adami
Correct. So therefore you at times have played that theme, at least the theme around where the system was either over levered or.
Carter Worth
I never played the deficit game. I mean I sat in a room with Pete Peterson in the 90s when he was nabobing about the deficit back then. So I.
Guy Adami
But are foreign investors nabobing about, about investing in the United States?
Carter Worth
I really just don't take all that, all that seriously. You know, people like to pontificate, you know, the deficit is Wall Street's version of virtue signaling. People like to come on, you know, shows like this and say I'm against the deficit. And then the next guest comes and says, oh he's not. I'm much more against the deficit than he is. It's all virtues thing. But at the end of the day, yeah, the 10 years gone up, but it's still four and a half percent. It's not like there's some crazy sell off. Yeah, so like I said, it's virtue signaling, but I don't take it all that seriously.
Melissa Lee
At what point though do you get concerned about the level of the ten year? Is it five? Is it five and a half? Is it, I mean, I mean if.
Carter Worth
It'S over five, five and a Half. Yeah, we'll have a conversation about it. But, you know, until then, I mean, think about it, though. At five, five and a half, you know, relative to where it's been, because rates was zero, it's high. But relative to history, it's not that high.
Melissa Lee
What will get you concerned about the deficit? Anything.
Carter Worth
Or, you know, the problem is, the issue is that the entire financial system of planet Earth runs on the dollar and runs on Treasuries, period. You know, there's a.
Guy Adami
Seems like a good thing for us.
Carter Worth
Right. But that's my point. You know, there's a trillion, trillions upon trillions of repos in the banking system every single night on Treasuries. So if there was an alternative to Treasuries, I might be worried more about the deficit because I'd say, well, if we don't balance our budget, then people will sell our Treasuries and buy something else. But what else are they going to buy? They're not going to buy Bitcoin. It's not big enough. They're not going to buy Chinese bonds. That's ridiculous. They're not going to buy European or Italian bonds. It's absurd. So until there's an. Actually an alternative to Treasuries, it's virtual signaling. That's all I. That's how I think about it.
Melissa Lee
Okay. You said you are worried about the trade war. Are we in that trade war now, though? I mean, was the trade war April 2nd when the tariff.
Carter Worth
We're not in the trade war yet. Okay, but like I said, the negotiations on these types of things are very complicated. They take time and anything could happen. I mean, nobody wanted World War I to start, and yet it happened. So I don't know what's going to happen. Would it surprise me if a year from now there's an actual trade war? It wouldn't surprise me. Am I hoping for a trade war? Absolutely not. Do I think that's the base case? Probably not, but it's not a de minimis risk.
Melissa Lee
You're so optimistic, Steve. It's like almost. It's a breath of fresh air, actually. You know, instead of all the negative nabobing that goes around.
Carter Worth
Nattering nabobs of negativism.
Melissa Lee
Natter. Nabobs of negativism. But what does keep you concerned about this market?
Carter Worth
It's the tariffs. It's the tariffs and what's going on. I mean, for example, you know, was it last week or the week before President Trump got all angry about Europe? Well, the reason why he got. I think angry about Europe is the eu this is something I found out fairly recently, has total authority on tariffs, but they don't have authority on anything else. So let's say they're negotiating to try and get more agriculture into Europe. France doesn't like that. So if France says no, they have a veto. They have veto power over the entire EU on that one important issue. Each country in Europe basically has effective veto power over issues that they care deeply about. That's a very difficult negotiation to engage with. And one of the reasons why I think President Trump did what he did for threatening the other week is like, you know, if you don't negotiate, we're going to hit you. But again, that doesn't necessarily mean that the EU is going to bend. I don't know how it's going to come out. I really don't.
Melissa Lee
All right, Steve, thank you. Great to see you in your new regalia. Steve Eisman, the Real Steve Eisman Playbook podcast. Julie Beal, what keeps you up at night about the Marcus? Is it just tariffs? Is it something else?
Steve Eisman
I would say it's mostly tariffs. And I think, like, especially after this whole taco situation, I think actually, if anything, that adds fuel to the fire and determination to President Trump to follow through with these choices that are absolutely uneconomic and really problematic for how we get goods around the world. And so I think that that's actually more concerning to me in the near term. For sure. To me, deficits are always concerning in terms of interest rates. But I think the bigger issue right now is we do not have kind of predictability around tariffs. The dates change weekly and the numbers change by orders of magnitude. And to me, I think that just makes all the flow of business more difficult.
Guy Adami
If you look at the market and you look at a chart, it's a V. Okay. So we've come all the way back and at the rhetoric even tonight, whether it's Steve or whether it's, you know, Julie saying it's what I was. I mean, this basically says you should be going back then to buy the things that were working before. Now, I think some of that's true until it doesn't work. But I mean, we've spent a lot of time in the last month talking about the holes we could blow in a handful of the biggest companies in the world, whether it's Apple, whether it's Google. A lot of people are worried about video. I'm not one of them. I think that today's price action was fascinating because also you have industrial metals parts of the economy, parts of the investment spectrum that actually were working that haven't been working. So again, I think you can follow some of these miners and metals plays, I think you can follow some of the utilities plays, and I think we're.
Melissa Lee
Going to talk about that coming up. Ad blockers why the group is getting hit as Metta leans into its ambitions and what the ad industry should brace for if other tech giants do the same. That's next. And some pharma deals making headlines. How Bristol Myers and Sanofi are bolstering their pipelines and the major moves and the names they are teaming up with do not go anywhere. Fast Money's Back in tune.
Brian Sullivan
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
Karen Finerman
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Meta shares jumping more than 3% and closing at their highest level since late February. A new report today saying the company plans to allow brands to fully create and target ads by using AI by the End of next year, content would be personalized based on metrics like user location. That news sending stocks shares of advertising companies like wpp, Interpublic and Omnicom sharply lower today. This is a really interesting move, Karen, considering Mark Zuckerberg talked about this very thing like a year ago on an earnings call.
Julie Beal
Right. I guess then it was much more pie in the sky. And if it was a year ago and I don't know at the time frame at that time was at the end of 2016, then that may have been enough time to like, okay, well, that was sort of the Metaverse time frame also. I don't know. So, I mean, this is fascinating. Obviously, you got to think about those advertising stocks, how much they're down. How much could matter on its own, on its own incomes. Right. Their own sgna. How much could they, how much more efficiency could they gain doing that, as well as how much more advertising interest could they get by supplying that product. So, I mean, still think the stock's not crazy expensive at all. That was a, that was a pretty big move.
Tim Seymour
Not expensive at all. It hasn't been that move that would get down to 480 or something in early April. I mean, that was a staggering move to the downside. But we talked about this almost a year ago. That along with Wal Mart, Facebook was really the only company that figured out how to sort of leverage. And now you read this and you're understanding what's going on, which I think actually makes it more attractive on a valuation basis.
Melissa Lee
Shouldn't we then extrapolate this ability to use AI to target ads to an Alphabet or any others that derive a lot of their income from advertising?
Guy Adami
Yeah, and I think, I think, I think we have, but I think it is, the message here is that Metta is in a pole position to really dictate the terms and dictate the terms. You know, I mean, like, advertising dollars make the world go around. So it speaks. But on some level, they are in a position to really determine just how effective those dollars are. And the measurement of that is another big part of it. And I think, you know, at this point, you can't really fight meta, and that's what you hear from businesses, but I think it's what you're hearing from advertisers as well.
Julie Beal
I'm wondering, does Meta really want and, or need TikTok to be around now so that they don't get an antitrust outcome that says you're the only game in town? We got to, we've got to Dismantle this as opposed to having a very serious real competitor.
Melissa Lee
Right?
Julie Beal
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. What do you think, Julie?
Steve Eisman
Yeah, I mean if I think about the power of the algorithm, particularly for TikTok and its ability to create commerce, that's really specifically targeted. Right. I spend way too much time on TikTok. I have bought so much of this like new PDRN salmon sperm stuff. If they sent that to Tim, Tim's too smart for that. He's not going to buy it. Right. But the ability to do well, I just don't Tim so smart, you guys, he'd never do that. But me, I'm an easy mark on that kind of thing. And I that the thing is that the ability to even be able to create more of that ad content that's so targeted, it's really powerful and it's really efficient for anyone trying to sell anything, literally anything.
Tim Seymour
What is Julie buying on?
Melissa Lee
What are you buying? What is that again?
Steve Eisman
It's like Medicube makes this salmon DNA that's super good for your skin pdrn and it is this pink jelly stuff that goes on your skin, makes it very luminous, whatever.
Melissa Lee
That's what you use like 20 year olds. Like aren't you walking around with that pink yellow stuff on your face?
Guy Adami
I tell you, you are glowing. You are glowing right now.
Melissa Lee
And it's a little squishy.
Guy Adami
It's either your LED mask or your salmon.
Melissa Lee
Anyway, it's free advertising for all these products today. A lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
Brian Sullivan
Pharma firming up their pipelines as drug deal headlines send stocks soaring.
Melissa Lee
The names jumping and what we're seeing.
Brian Sullivan
In the biotech sector space next. Plus the Alaska gas gamble.
Melissa Lee
What the nation's biggest energy project could mean for US Output and the companies that could benefit or be left behind.
Brian Sullivan
You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
Karen Finerman
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Biotech outperforming the broader healthcare sector today with the excess SBI gaining 2 and a half percent. The move coming amid several new deals in the space. Blueprint meds up 26% after the immunology company agreed to be acquired by Sanofi for $129 a share. And Biontech surging while Bristol Myers also finished higher on the news that the two will partner on the development of a new cancer drug. Jelica Peoples joining us now from ASCO in Chicago with more on the oncology developments to watch. Angelica.
Angelica Peebles
Hey, Melissa. Well, that deal was definitely the talk of the day, the one between Biontech and Bristol Myers Webb. So Bristol is paying BioNTech one and a half billion dollars upfront and up to $11 billion to get its hands on this drug which goes after two cancer targets. Now this is an area where we've seen a ton of investment over the past few months. We've seen Merck, Pfizer all getting in. But this one is especially interesting because Biontech originally licensed this drug from a Chinese company for $55 million. And then they went and they acquired the company outright for about $1 billion just in February. And now they're turning around and they're partnering with Bristol to co develop. And so that has been the talk of the day. Everyone talking about the price tag and just the interest in this space. There's a lot of people who are excited and there's also a lot of naysayers. So that is one to watch. And this drug is part of what's called a Bispecific antibody. And again, the idea is that it goes after two targets for cancer. And so we also talk to another company that's developing a Bispecific for head and neck cancer. It works a little bit differently. But the CEO of Maris telling us that, you know, I asked him about the hype, where are we in this cycle right now? Here's what he had to say.
Julie Beal
We view the trajectory as really promising and moving forward.
Tim Seymour
We think that a number of Other.
Julie Beal
Approvals that have happened recently only support the strength and the opportunity for bispecifics.
Angelica Peebles
So there is a ton of excitement in this area and it's definitely one to watch, whether it's large pharmaceutical companies, smaller biotechs like Maris. So again, lot to watch in that space.
Melissa Lee
All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. The outperformance we should note in biotech, not just today, also in Friday's session. So it's putting together a string of nice gains.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I mean, we don't really talk about ETFs, but IBB, if you go back and look in the fall of 23, traded to 112. Look at the low we made in early April. 112 Gilead, I think we've collectively talked about that. Had a huge run, sold off, back on the horse. That's 9% of the IBB. I think you want to be long IBB here. Malms.
Guy Adami
It's, it's a fascinating time because all we do is talk about glp. But you know, Immuno Oncology is a hot space and it's a place where some of the also rans. And I know I'm saying that facetiously or kind of tongue in cheek because Bristol Myers is not an also ramp, but they haven't been part of this GOP movement. In fact, almost no one else has other than Novo and Lilly. And this kind of looks to further increase the lead they have. What's interesting about this is this, this, at least this, this deal is around a drug that will be taken on Keytruda. And it seems like it's another one of those knocks against Merck and really a flagship that they've had for a long time.
Julie Beal
Yeah. Just can bring up Merck. I mean, so pressure's on Merck. Right. They have a little time, but they've really got to come up with something.
Melissa Lee
It does feel, Julie, like finally. We've been talking about the need to acquire to improve pipelines, but it seems like companies are actually stepping up to the plate now.
Steve Eisman
Yeah, I think there's a real recognition that there needs to be a replenishment in terms of the new assets that are coming up. And it feels like people are actually willing to deal, willing to come forward, and we need that. Right. I think part of the idea too is that some of these solutions may have a very specific application, but something that can be learned from it and applied to something else. And so when it reaches that point, that's when it really should be glommed onto a larger franchise a larger company that can really develop it and expand the applications beyond that. So I think that's the exciting part and to see more innovation happening, these companies really need that refreshing.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, gas gamble in the last frontier. The White House pushing a major LNG project in Alaska. Our own Brian Sullivan is live in Alaska with more.
Brian Sullivan
Brian, we are in Prudhoe Bay, the Arctic Circle going to wrap up our coverage just for you, Melissa. We're going to hear what the Secretary of Interior has to say about stocks and competition if this Alaska LNG pipeline does indeed happen. That is after the break from literally the top of the world.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks climbing into the green to kick off June trading. The Dow up 35 points. It's third straight day higher. The S&P rising a 10 4, 10 of a percent. And the Nasdaq up more than a half a percent. Shares of digital infrastructure company Applied Digital Surging nearly 50% after inking a long term lease agreement with Nvidia backed core weave. Applied Digital saying it expects $7 billion in rental revenue during the 15 year period. Coreweave also higher on the news now up more than 200% since its IPO in late April. Just quickly, Karen Cor weaves short interest.
Julie Beal
Is a whopping, it's a whopping 31% of the float out, not of the overall shares. But those aren't available for trading right now. So that's up quite a bit. I know you know the sort of narration of the narrative of change of story, but this is well beyond that.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Well, energy prices surging today with crude R Bob and natural gas all settling firmly higher. And a big boost to nat gas production could be on the way with President Trump once again backing a near $40 billion project to build a new pipeline in Alaska. Brian Sullivan joins us live from the Last Frontier with more on how it could impact the entire energy complex. Brian?
Brian Sullivan
Melissa, by the way, quickly speaking of oil, oil up today on the OPEC news, the Alaska oil pipeline. I don't know if you can see those buildings back there. That's basically where it starts. That is wellhead zero, the Alaska oil pipeline. We were there earlier today. Really dramatic. All right. So what they want to do and they've been wanting to do this for 30 years. Okay. But there's a new push to build up natural gas pipeline that would run basically alongside the Alaska oil pipeline till the very end. Then you'd sell that LNG liquefied natural gas to Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, Korea, etc. This plan has been on the table for a long time. The cost estimated 38 to 44 billion plus. You got to build the liquefaction, you got to do all these things. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, this is kind of their land right here. Along with privately held Hill Corp, they have remained non committal about whether or not they will kick in capital to build it. So for fast money, here's the thing. There are two major publicly traded sellers of lng, Solo LNG in the United States. Cheniere Ticker LNG and Venture Global Ticker vg. Obviously Chevron, Exxon and others are players. But for Cheniere and LNG and Venture Global, that is their core business. So earlier today, way up here by the wellhead, we asked Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum, if this pipeline were to get built, we started exporting more lng, what would that mean for competition for other American natural gas companies? More American LNG we sell to our allies around the world. The safer the world is going to be. And in terms of price competitive, if there's a slight higher cost here in terms of transportation to get it from the north slope down to the south to the southern tip of southern portion of Alaska, it's made up because the transportation cost, if you can ship for eight days versus 24 days, you got one third the transportation cost to get to a place like Japan. And so net net is going to be very competitive from a pricing standpoint. So if this pipeline, big if, if the pipeline were to get built, how much LNG natural gas we talking about? They estimate about 20 million metric tons a year. The world sells exports about 400 million. So you're looking at about 5% additional capacity to the global market in a market, by the way, expected to grow according to Shell, by 50% in the next 10 years. Guys, the hope is that if this gets done, again big if, if it gets done, it would supplant some Russian lng. Of course that's this would take about eight years, but down the road it would supplant some Russian lng. Factor this in your models for the Chenieres, the Venture Globals of the world. We're wrapping our coverage from literally the top of the world where this is as dark as it gets. Even at two in the morning. This is what it looks like outside, as we learned last night.
Melissa Lee
Hope you brought your blindfold for going to sleep tonight, Brian. You're going to need it or blackout shades. All this production goes onto the market and prices come down. I mean that would Think would think be bad in the longer run for an LNG or a vg?
Brian Sullivan
So what the industry has said, yes, the hope is that it would supplant Russian, I'd say barrels, Russian natural gas, so that prices could remain consistent. I'll tell you what the industry is a little bit upset about, guys. The Export Import bank, which is based in Washington D.C. just gave a loan to Total Energies of France for a big LNG project in Mozambique. So kind of the industry is saying, well, we're talking about this Alaska pipeline. Why is the Export Import bank given a loan guarantee to a French company for a project in Africa that would also price compete with us? That's a geopolitical thing. Either way, the LNG market's growing. The question is, where do we get it? Qatar, Russia, United States. That's why there were three cabinet members here. A governor, a senator and a beloved CNBC host slash reporter.
Melissa Lee
Who would that be in terms of.
Brian Sullivan
Who pays Alex and Casey, Great job.
Melissa Lee
Who would pay the 40 billion, Brian?
Brian Sullivan
So ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Marathon Petroleum which has the export terminal in the lower peninsula. They have all remained non committal. Basically they're probably saying we're happy to put our gas in your pipeline if you build it. Who would build it? Short answer probably be foreign loan guarantees. Japan, Taiwan, Korea, if they commit to taking 20 years of capacity. That loan guarantee probably enough to create an FID final investment decision which will get it built. I don't think the Exxons, the Conocos of the world are going to put up the capitol. But hey, we don't know. We just don't have a commitment yet. We'll see if this gets done.
Melissa Lee
Brian, outstanding work. Thank you.
Carter Worth
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
Brian Sullivan from the top of the world.
Guy Adami
Pretty cool.
Melissa Lee
Very cool.
Tim Seymour
Hope his ears don't get too cold.
Melissa Lee
He's got a hat.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, he's got big ears too, you know. No, he does. I mean he'll laugh about it. Cheniere is interesting. I know he's listening right now.
Guy Adami
You ever call baby New Year?
Tim Seymour
I haven't yet.
Melissa Lee
Remember that one of that baby, Basically.
Guy Adami
Sorry.
Tim Seymour
Anyway, Cheniere, listen, made an all time high in January. Sold off hard. It's getting back to the levels. It's not expensive in terms of valuation and I've read chatter that you know, if more energy is going to get in the s and P500, Cheniere is a name that could potentially make it in. So I like LNG here as well.
Melissa Lee
All right. By the way, we are just days days away from the next Fast Money Live event here at the Nasdaq market site. Thursday is the big show. Our diehard Fast Money fans are coming from all over the country and even from way down under, Australia. It's going to be a jam packed show you won't want to miss A director of the National Economic Council and President Trump's first term, Gary Cohn will be here. We'll also hear from former JP Morgan chief global strategist Marco Kolanovic. All that plus guy will go amongst the people. We'll take questions from our fans live during the show. So tune in on Thursday for the big show. It really will be a big going to be great must see TV Coming up, sports betting stocks going bust. The group contending with a new tax hike in Illinois. The details and what happens if other states follow suit? That's next. Plus, is there some magic in Disney's technicals while the Chartmaster is going long and whether you should make the stock part of your world? Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two. Welcome back to FAST money. Gambling stocks rolling lower today after Illinois lawmakers passed a loss a new state budget over the weekend which raises taxes on sports bets placed in the state. The fee starts at 25 cents for the first 20 million wagers and increases to 50 cents after that. DraftKings the hardest hit today, down 6%, its worst day since early March. Tim, do you think this is a big deal?
Guy Adami
I think it can be. I mean, I think every state is looking to get theirs and that was part of the reason why you wanted to own it on the way out because there was a revenue stream that I thought was attractive. But I do think that there's ability to claw back as much as possible. I just think that competition in the space right now is everybody's, you know, everybody's eating each other and at some point, you know, we're going to talk about Disney and espn. I mean, there's a lot of places where you weren't expecting them to be a competitor. DraftKings was out front. There's a lot of other places that I think are also competing for their dollars.
Tim Seymour
The August low last year I think was around $30 in DraftKings. It looks like it wants to get there. But you know, we've heard news out of Illinois before regarding this. So Tim makes a good point. I mean, it's clearly something to be concerned about. The question is at this price, is it pretty much priced in? I think you buy with both hands at 30.
Melissa Lee
If it gets there, then you overlay, you know, macro concerns about the consumer, Julie, and maybe you have a space that you don't necessarily want to be a part of.
Steve Eisman
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, gambling holds up relatively okay in recessions, but I think this tax issue is a much bigger deal because if we continue to see more of the federal government trying to pull back spending on states, they're going to have to raise money somewhere. And this is a very easy, very popular way to raise money for them. So I think that's a risk. As you know, as one, as one state goes, the rest may follow. And so that'd be a real concern I would have here.
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, a technical tale as old as time, why the charts could be pointing to a whole new world for Disney and where the chartmaster is drawing the lines. That is next, more fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Disney shares basically flat this year, but have rebounded more than 40% from its April lows. And the chartmaster says that for the first time in a long time, he's seeing an opportunity to go long. Carter worth of worth charting joins us now. Carter?
J
Well, sure, we have four identical charts before we get to them. I mean the thing is this is remarkably not a big company in the S and P. Think 40 basis points, literally 410 of 1% weight in the S&P 500. And yet it's the mighty Disney. Let's go to the charts and try to figure out if indeed the way is higher. So here is a long term chart going back to and pre Covid low with no lines, no annotations, no drawings. Let's put some in. And if you see here on the second iteration, if we were to start the conversation from that Covid low, of course, Disney plunges about 50% in the COVID sell off. Then it rallies hard from 80 all up to 200 and then it plunges again in the 2022 bear market. But you see how precisely it has responded to those trend lines. It has found that low three times and it responded and backed away from that downtrend line in effect, since its high post Covid bounce. So the next chart is a judgment and you'll see it here because it has no arrows but one, it's an up arrow. Others might draw it differently, say no, it's going to fail here. Carter at the downtrend line yet again. But what's so important is look at how precise those lows are. Do you see there? The COVID low is $79.07. The 2023 low is $79.73. The 2025 low is $80.10. All within a dollar. Do you think that's PE or price to sales or enterprise? Value to EBITDA or price to book? No, it's just that levels matter. And so final chart. It's an epic triple bottom. I would make the first conclusion that the lows are in. Now it's a question of whether it has upside. That's a little harder to figure out. That is my conclusion. Number two, that it does have upside down.
Melissa Lee
All right, Carter, thank you. Good to see you. Carter Braxton. Worth of. Worth charting. Tim, do you like this triple bottom?
Guy Adami
I do. Who doesn't like a triple bottom? Just like that. All right. And that's a good one. And I think there's a lot of things going on here, including just profitability from streaming. I think ESPN is undervalued. I think some of the parts. I think there's a lot of cyclical headwinds to Disney's theme parks. But guess what? That's not what drove the stock to $200. It was all about streaming. Profitability is important.
Tim Seymour
Sandy's in my ear talking about salmon sperm he wants me to see on live tv, but I'm not going to say salmon sperm again.
Melissa Lee
He said it five times.
Tim Seymour
Got to take out the March high, which I think was 1.24ish. You get above 124, you buy it again and look for that breakout that Carter's talking about.
Melissa Lee
Julie looks particularly glowy.
Guy Adami
Interesting.
Melissa Lee
Thanks to her salmon sperm. What do you think of Disney?
Steve Eisman
Yeah, I think seeing. It's nice to see that the attendance is starting to improve at the parks because I think that actually is the real driver of earnings. Everyone is very fixated on the profitability of streaming because it's such a headwind to the overall business. But I think the parks are really where the money is made. And, you know, I think it looks like it's improving from here. And so that. That makes me more optimistic.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean, this is a barometer in some respects of consumer spending. The consumer feeling good. And this is experiential. And it's also for your children, which I think people are probably less inclined to cut back on.
Julie Beal
Yes, I heard you were talking about do we take the kids?
Melissa Lee
Sigh. It will happen, I'm sure.
Julie Beal
I mean, you know, I'm not long. Disney haven't been long and it's really had a nice run. I'd rather be in Netflix. I am in Netflix.
Melissa Lee
Stuff.
Guy Adami
Would you rather we had a great time at the introduction of the Disney cruises and we have a lot of pictures together, Mel, Karen and I. Yeah we were there with Minnie and it was, it was a good time.
Julie Beal
Yes, they do it well.
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade.
Steve Eisman
Julie Beal SSD with is not for sperm salmon but it is for Simpson which I think will be negatively impacted by the housing. But they maintain their margin guidance. I feel pretty good about that.
Guy Adami
Tim I'm the only one that hasn't said the salmon thing tonight. I'm going to stay as the only one that didn't say I'm going to say Freeport. I think they've got a lot of gold exposure. They don't get priced in. I think we're in a five year copper bull market.
Melissa Lee
Karen yes, Amazon.
Julie Beal
I like the AWS business. I like the retail business. I like like the advertising business.
Tim Seymour
Kevin Pritchard, the President of basketball operations, huge fan of Fast Money the Indiana Pacers. Congratulations. KP Newmont Mining knows.
Melissa Lee
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CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary: Cracks In The Housing Sector’s Foundation… And The Alaska Gas Gamble (June 2, 2025)
Hosted by Melissa Lee and featuring a roundtable of top traders—Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Guy Adami, and Julie Beal—this episode delves into the precarious state of the housing market, the complexities of rising bond yields, significant movements in the biotech sector, and the ambitious Alaska gas pipeline project.
Overview: The episode kicks off with a critical examination of the housing sector, highlighting declining construction spending and the resultant downturn in homebuilders and related industries.
Key Points:
Decline in Construction Spending: May witnessed a third consecutive monthly decline in construction spending, reflecting mounting economic uncertainty and elevated mortgage rates. This downturn propelled the XHP Homebuilder ETF to its lowest close since late April, marking an 11% decline for the year.
Impact on Homebuilders and Adjacent Companies: Major homebuilders like Dr. Horton, Lennar, Toll Brothers, and KB Home reported significant losses. Additionally, companies adjacent to housing such as Restoration Hardware, Stanley Black & Decker, and Williams Sonoma also saw their stocks dip.
Investment Insights:
Advisory to Investors:
Company-Specific Analysis:
Notable Quotes:
Overview: The discussion transitions to a perplexing market behavior where bond yields are on the rise even as traditional risk-off assets like gold rally.
Key Points:
Contrary Movements: While gold prices surged to their highest in nearly a month, the 30-year bond yield hit 5%, and the 10-year closed around 4.5%, defying typical risk-off trends.
Fed Influence and Market Leadership:
Investment Insights:
Notable Quotes:
Overview: Steve Eisman joins the panel to shed light on the looming threat of trade tariffs and their potential repercussions on the market.
Key Points:
Tariff Uncertainty: Eisman emphasizes that unpredictable tariffs pose a significant risk, complicating business operations and investment decisions.
Deficit Perspectives: While some panelists view deficit concerns as secondary, Eisman highlights tariffs as a more immediate threat, questioning the sustainability of current business models under prolonged high-interest environments.
Investment Insights:
Notable Quotes:
Overview: The biotech sector is experiencing robust activity, with significant mergers and acquisitions capturing investor attention.
Key Points:
Major Deals:
Industry Trends:
Investment Insights:
Notable Quotes:
Overview: Brian Sullivan provides an on-the-ground perspective of the proposed Alaska LNG pipeline, a pivotal project that could reshape the U.S. energy landscape.
Key Points:
Project Details: The pipeline aims to transport natural gas from Prudhoe Bay to southern Alaska, with plans to liquefy and export LNG to Asia. The estimated cost ranges between $38 to $44 billion.
Market Implications:
Challenges: Securing commitments from major energy companies like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips remains uncertain. The project may rely on foreign loan guarantees to proceed.
Investment Insights:
Notable Quotes:
Overview: The panel examines the recent tax hike on sports betting in Illinois and its adverse effects on related stocks.
Key Points:
Tax Implementation: Illinois lawmakers passed a budget imposing a fee starting at 25 cents for the first 20 million wagers, increasing to 50 cents thereafter.
Impact on Companies:
Investment Insights:
Notable Quotes:
Overview: Disney's stock presents a technical anomaly with a significant rebound from April lows, prompting a detailed chart analysis by panelist Carter Worth.
Key Points:
Stock Performance: Although relatively flat this year, Disney's shares have surged over 40% from their April lows, rebounding from the COVID-19 sell-off.
Chart Analysis:
Operational Insights:
Investment Insights:
Notable Quotes:
Overview: The episode concludes with final trade recommendations and a glimpse into upcoming topics, including the performance of gambling stocks and further analysis on Disney.
Key Points:
Final Trade Insights:
Upcoming Segments:
Notable Quotes:
Conclusion: This episode of "Fast Money" provided a comprehensive analysis of key sectors impacting the market. From the destabilizing factors in the housing market and the enigmatic behavior of bond yields to the promising advancements in biotech and the high-stakes gamble of the Alaska LNG pipeline, the panel offered valuable insights for investors. Additionally, the discussions on sports betting taxation and Disney's technical outlook underscored the nuanced landscape of today's financial markets.
For more detailed discussions and updates, visit Fast Money on CNBC.