CNBC "Fast Money" Podcast Summary

Episode: Crude’s Crumble… And Why A Market Goldilocks Scenario Is Still In Play
Date: December 16, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Guy Adami, Carter Worth, Bono (Bonoan Nysen), Steve Grasso
Special Contributors: David Zervos (Jefferies), Carlos Domingo (Securitize), Julia Boorstin, Diana Olick

Episode Overview

This episode centers on a dramatic decline in crude oil prices to five-year lows, examining implications for energy stocks and broader markets. The panel also discusses Pfizer's disappointing guidance and future prospects, Comcast's sudden surge amid M&A speculation, earnings from homebuilder Lennar, a deep dive on quantum computing as the next “AI trade,” and a technical analysis of GM and Tesla. Special guests provide insight into Fed policy, macroeconomic trends, and the rapidly growing world of on-chain tokenization.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Crude Oil's Plunge and Energy Market Implications

[01:01–08:10]

• Crude oil prices dip below $55/barrel, lowest since Feb 2021; energy stocks falter.
• Contributing factors:
  • Disappointing jobs data.
  • Sanctions possibly ending on Russia, adding supply.
  • OPEC reverses cuts, non-OPEC production (Brazil, Guyana, US) at record highs.
  • End of supply disruptions from Ukraine war.
• Diverging Views on the Trade:
  • Guy Adami: Still sees value in major energy names (Conoco, Chevron, Exxon). Notes that oil-to-gold & oil-to-S&P ratios are at historic lows, reflecting macroeconomic weakness as much as supply ([02:23], [07:14]).
    • "There’s value in all those [energy] names, specifically the three big components of the XLE: Conoco, Chevron and ExxonMobil."
  • Steve Grasso: Predicts further oil downside, possibly to $40/barrel, due to a glut ([03:10]).
    • _"Commodity, I think for me, is still lower price commodity… Definitely sub-50."
  • Bono: Energy yields attractive but hard to make a bull case with falling crude ([04:20]).
    • "If I'm singling out oil names... it's just a tough sell."
    • Points out that lower oil is a disinflationary tailwind for airlines and industrials.
  • Carter Worth: Charts suggest further downside, maybe $50/barrel, with $40 only in deep recession ([05:31]).
    • "If we get to 40, we’re probably in recession or some world of hurt."
• Refiners Exception:
  • Lower oil prices could boost refiner margins due to lower input costs ([06:47]).
  • Historic anomalies: "An ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil for the first time since the mid-1970s." ([07:14])

2. Pharma Focus: Pfizer’s Weak Guidance

[08:10–11:57]

• Pfizer shares drop on 2026 guidance below expectations.
  • Earnings per share forecast: $2.80–$3.00 vs. $3.05 est.
  • Flat revenues, COVID product decline, patent expirations ahead.
• Panel Outlook:
  • Melissa Lee: Not concerned about being long Pfizer; others more exposed to patent cliff (Amgen, Bristol, Merck) ([09:01]).
  • Guy Adami: Bearish, sees Pfizer’s bounces as sell opportunities; says Bristol might be close to breakout, but Eli Lilly is absorbing all big pharma investment ([09:28]).
    • "Every bounce has been a sell… Eli Lilly’s game. Unfortunately for the rest of Big Cap Pharma, they’re taking all the investment dollars."
  • Jefferies notes Pfizer could benefit from obesity drug acquisition, challenging Eli Lilly ([09:57]).
  • Bono: Sees biotech rotation and worries Pfizer’s low-beta nature didn’t protect it from the drop ([10:17]).
    • "The biotech complex and the amount of investment dollars that are flowing into that are likely cannibalizing some of the upside opportunity here."
  • Carter Worth: Sees potential reversal after a long decline ([11:02]):
    • "Those April lows... are good lows. In fact, today's aftermarket action leaves the stock down to the penny to its still rising 100-day moving average. It's so bad it’s good."

3. Comcast & Streaming Space in Play

[12:10–17:28]

• Comcast shares jump as activist involvement & M&A speculation swirl.
  • Analyst suggestions: NBCU could merge with a Warner Bros Discovery “loser”; Paramount in mix ([12:10], Julia Boorstin reporting).
• Panel Takes:
  • Guy Adami: Netflix is now "too cheap;" points to Lionsgate (favored by Steve Cohen) as a stealth streaming breakout ([14:46]).
    • "Netflix looks a little cheap, but it's also been in a declining trendline… Lionsgate is breaking out to the upside."
  • Melissa Lee: Waits for a better entry on Netflix, likes platform revenue growth in Roku ([15:12]).
  • Bono: Attractive free cash flow yields make streaming stocks ownable, but warns against chasing M&A rumors ([15:42]).
    • "You could find yourself… left holding the proverbial ball as it drops back… the free cash flow is pretty compelling."
  • Carter Worth: Chart-based caution; one-day moves speculative, overall price action suggests underlying business issues ([16:28]).

4. Airlines and Homebuilding

Airlines – Spirit/Frontier M&A Rumor
[17:28–18:19]

• Spirit Airlines and Frontier might merge.
  • Guy Adami: Recommends Delta as best airline stock ([17:57]).
  • Carter Worth: ETF JETS and airlines leading broader transports ([18:19]).

Lennar Earnings & Housing Outlook
[19:23–24:25]

• Lennar shares drop after Q4 beat but weak guidance.
  • 14% incentives/discounts impacting margins; Q1 deliveries and new orders guided well below estimates ([21:43], Diana Olick reporting).
  • Guy Adami: Bearish, expects Lennar and homebuilders to underperform due to weak deliveries, lower prices, higher unemployment, and rising rates ([21:52]).
  • Bono: High-end focus preferred (Toll); Lennar valuation ahead of peers, margin pressure from incentives ([22:49]).
  • Carter Worth: Lennar trading at a 10-year relative low to peers ([23:48]).
  • Melissa Lee: DR Horton preferred; likes Home Depot/Lowe’s for lower-but-not-low interest rate exposure ([24:05]).

5. Quantum Computing: The Next “AI Trade”?

[27:37–30:04]

• Jefferies initiates 'Buy' on D-Wave Quantum with a $45 price target (76% upside).
  • Melissa Lee: Moved gains from D-Wave to CCC (Inflection), sees big runway for quantum-related companies but notes the science is complex ([28:00]).
  • Bono: Cautions that quantum is high-beta/speculative; “current AI trade” due to retail’s risk appetite but valuations not justified by current fundamentals ([28:37]):
    • "I've been on record… this is the portion of AI that does scare me the most... Very small numbers that... do not justify the valuation."
  • Carter Worth: Emphasizes the speculative "beta" nature, where massive price swings are driven by sentiment over fundamentals ([29:38]).

6. Macro View: Goldilocks Scenario in Markets

Special Guest: David Zervos (Jefferies) [31:17–36:15]

• On economic data and Fed:
  • Data highly noisy and subject to revision but shows continued productivity gains, real wage growth, low job creation—not enough to worry Fed ([31:26]):
    • "All of this data has to be taken with a much larger grain of salt than we usually take it with..."
  • Fed’s new asset purchases on the short end (de facto QE) are highly supportive of risk assets ([32:33]):
    • "When the Fed does QE, they add liquidity… risk asset markets key off of it."
• New Fed Chair Test (May 2026):
  • Markets historically test new Fed chairs; expects some turbulence ([34:00]).
• Near-term view:
  • Goldilocks: Two quarters of 4% GDP growth with little job creation (“90s-style economy").
  • Lower oil and rates could boost risk assets, but main risk is transition to next Fed chair.

7. Tokenization & On-Chain Securities

Interview: Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize
[38:09–42:11]

• Tokenization of Wall Street assets is accelerating.
  • Regulatory shifts (SEC Chair Atkins), BlackRock partnership drive interest.
• Benefits:
  • Upgrades legacy ledgers to distributed blockchain tech: instant, atomic settlement, lower costs, transparency ([38:51]).
• Market Opportunity:
  • Securitize has 20% of a $30B tokenized asset market; sees 10% of a projected $2T future market as huge ([40:02]).
• Biggest Impact:
  • Most near-term promise is “liquid” assets—tokenized dollars, treasuries—rather than art or real estate ([40:41]).
  • Atomic settlement eliminates inefficiencies, intermediaries ([41:39]).
  • Company plans IPO and tokenizing its own shares ([42:08]).

8. Technical Analysis & Final Trades

GM and Tesla
[42:28–45:41]

• GM:
  • Carter Worth: Time to sell/take profits after 215% gain in two years; at technical resistance, far above moving averages ([42:53]).
    • "At a minimum, take profits, sell calls, do something… For those who do engage in selling short, I would get in motion."
• Tesla:
  • Approaching prior highs; potential for a double top and a check back before another breakout ([44:00]).
  • Panel preference: Tesla over GM for future growth.

Final Trades
[45:50–46:13]

• Steve Grasso: Added to Ethereum (ETH) grayscale mints.
• Carter Worth: Advocates taking profits in GM.
• Bono: Bullish reversal called on CVS.
• Guy Adami: Likes Netflix.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Energy Markets:
  "An ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil for the first time since the mid-1970s." — Guy Adami ([07:14])
• On Risk:
  "Beta and beta only. It's highly speculative. Valuation is hard to pin down if anything." — Carter Worth on quantum computing stocks ([29:38])
• On Tokenization:
  "The reality is, when the Fed does QE… risk asset markets key off of it. And I think the risk asset markets are keying off these reserve management purchases… that's probably why the market reacted so positively to last Wednesday's FOMC meeting." — David Zervos ([32:33])
• On Market Psychology:
  "If your price momentum tells you more about a business than anything." — Carter Worth on streaming stocks ([16:28])

Important Timestamps

• Crude oil segment kickoff: [01:01]
• Major energy stocks analysis: [02:23–06:47]
• Pfizer outlook: [08:10–11:57]
• Comcast/streaming mergers: [12:10–17:28]
• Airlines M&A & housing: [17:28–24:25]
• Quantum computing trade: [27:37–30:04]
• Goldilocks scenario/Fed: [31:17–36:15]
• Tokenization interview: [38:09–42:11]
• GM/Tesla technicals: [42:28–45:41]
• Final trades: [45:50–46:13]

Overall Tone & Takeaway

Informative, energetic, and at times contrarian, the episode captures fast-moving market narratives—from the oil crash and potential Goldilocks soft landing, to sector rotations in pharma and streaming, technical levels on key stocks, and emerging technologies like tokenization and quantum computing. Jaded realism and technical acumen shape panelist views; there’s skepticism of the crowd but optimism in select opportunities—tempered with technical and macro caution.

This summary provides a concise yet comprehensive guide to this episode’s wide-ranging actionable discussions.