← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Crude’s Crumble… And Why A Market Goldilocks Scenario Is Still In Play 12/16/25
00:43:45
Crude continuing its crumble as WTI dips below $55 a barrel. The next move for the energy sector as it struggles to see any gains this year. Plus Why Jefferies’ David Zervos still sees a goldilocks scenario in play for the market as we head into year end. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:01]
Melissa Lee
Introducing Fidelity Trader plus, the next generation of advanced trading from Fidelity. Customize your tools and charts and access them seamlessly across desktop, web and mobile. For faster trades anywhere you go, try the all new Fidelity Trader Plus. Learn more about our most powerful trading platform yet@fidelity.com TraderPlus investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, llc. Member NYSE SIPC.
- [00:31]
Host/Moderator
Welcome to Walgreens. Looking for a holiday gift? Sort of.
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Carter Worth
My cousin Freddy showed up to surprise us.
- [00:38]
Host/Moderator
Oh, sounds like a real nice surprise.
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Bono
Exactly.
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Melissa Lee
So now I have to get him.
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Carter Worth
A gift, but I haven't gotten my bonus yet. So if we can make it something.
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Bono
Really nice but also not break the bank, that'd be perfect.
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Host/Moderator
How about a keurig for 50% off bingo savings all season?
- [00:53]
Melissa Lee
The holiday road is long. We're with you all the way.
- [00:56]
Host/Moderator
Walgreens offer valid November 26 through December 27.
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Carter Worth
Exclusions apply.
- [01:01]
Host/Moderator
Live from the NASDAQ markets out in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, a crude awakening. Oil prices hitting their lowest level in nearly five years, taking energy stocks along with them. How to play the pullback and what it says about the state of the markets and a Pfizer flop. Shares of the pharma giant dropping nearly 6% at the lows. Why the company is giving tepid guidance for the new year and how it's impacting the rest of health care. Plus, shares of Comcast catch a bid. Homebuilder Lennar on the move. Earnings and is it time to sell gm? That's what the chartmaster sees in the technicals. Why is he shifting into reverse? I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from CDF at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Steve Grassler, Carter Worth, Bono and Nysen and Gai Adami. Three big market moves catching our eyes today. Pfizer thinking on some weak guidance are soon to be former parent company Comcast getting a bump higher. But we start by drilling down on crude oil hitting its lowest level since February 2021. WTI briefly dipping below 55 bucks a barrel today on the back of disappointing jobs data, rapid production ramp ups from OPEC nations and the potential end to supply disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine. Crude now down more than 20% this year on pace for its worst year since 2018. Energy stocks are among the worst performers in the S and P, with the sector basically flat since January. So what should we make of this pressure in this space? This is a Value trade or value trap guy, what do you think?
- [02:23]
Guy Adami
He's been talking about the underlying commodity for a while and it's going his way. But in terms of the stocks, until the last week or so they've been a value trade. Now I think people feel they're on the wrong side of it because they're sort of looking at the underlying commodity and they're sort of equating the weakness there with the weakness in the stocks. Peter Brook for had a note out. He might have been on the show a couple of weeks ago saying that his surprise call for 26 is going to be energy and commodities, specifically crude oil. And I agree it doesn't look that way. Now I will tell you, despite the fact that they actually almost got up to a resistance level and seemingly is failing, I still think there's value in all those names, specifically the three big components of the XLE, Conoco, Chevron and ExxonMobil.
- [03:03]
Host/Moderator
Oil higher energy higher in 2026 would be non consensus. Non consensus, contrarian. Call it what you want. Steve, what's your call for oil?
- [03:11]
Melissa Lee
I'm going to be consensus. I think oil can crack down to about $40 a barrel. It could even go lower than that. But let's just worry about 50, right? Let's worry about 10% move lower from here. You said it before. So you have geopolitical, Palestine, Israel. That's off the table right now for now, short term or long term depending. Ukraine, Russia. If the sanctions are removed, that adds to the glut. OPEC is reversing cuts, it's adding more supply. And you have non OPEC members, Brazil, Guyana, US all pumping at record volumes. So if you think that these companies are more efficient and their break evens are lower, you could still buy them. Commodity I think for me is still lower price commodity. And I know that it spooks a lot of people to think that $35 a barrel could be in sight. But I think you have a glut hitting the market right now. So definitely sub 50.
- [04:10]
Host/Moderator
Do you think that? I mean, yes, they are more efficient at this point, right? They can do more with less and so maybe they can fare okay with oil at 50 bucks a barrel.
- [04:21]
Bono
I think the constructive argument that you can make is that you're expecting probably returns that are half of what they were this year and last year. I'm talking about the S and P overall. So I think the dividend yield that they offer is more attractive. We're talking about perhaps cutting rates. You can make an argument as to Whether it's one or three cuts but in either case rates are headed, the trajectory is downward. So again in a lower rate environment I can see the case for having them be a slightly more increased price point portion of your portfolio. With that said, I think it's tough to make the bull case outright for them. Now let's separate portfolio construction from just owning the names outright and making a bull call. I think particularly the EMPs and oil services struggle when you have a declining oil situation I think it's constructive as it pertains to airlines and perhaps industrials and some of the other transport names. So that's probably the way that I would express the view there. Overarching in terms from a macro standpoint I think it's positive in terms of like the disinflation story perhaps leads into a more accommodative Fed. So I think that there are constructive aspects to that trade. But if I'm just singling out the oil names I think it's just a tough sell in terms of like owning them outright.
- [05:32]
Carter Worth
Well, there's so much going on. I mean first we're talking about oil which is down 9% in the last seven sessions. Nat gas is down 31% so it's, it's sort of broad based and so forth. As to energy stocks, of course the entire sector is only 2, 0.7% of the S&P. That's the same as one stock of AGO. But in terms of where crude is headed from here, I'm in the lower camp. I think 40 is aggressive but I certainly think we can hit 50 and maybe we can look at some charts if we have them. The first thing to note of course is that we've been going down since the peak, the recent peak which is the spike associated with Ukraine invasion. Right at that point, interestingly we hit about 150 a barrel and Wall street was predicting 250. Of course none of that happens. That's the way it is. We're now here at 55 and we're hovering at a break level. The next chart is an all data chart which depicts sort of where we are now. Those lows, sort of all time lows are essentially at $10 a barrel. The one exception is of course for a brief moment we went negative $50 a barrel associated with COVID which was just, you know, almost a glitch but it happened. I think 50. There are about 40. We to get to 40. We are in a, probably in a recession or some world hurt.
- [06:47]
Melissa Lee
The world of hurt. You've got to remember though, just to tie both on it, you have more federal lands that are coming up for drilling. You have more offshore that are coming up for drilling. So you have the most accommodative administration that we probably ever had in history to drilling and EMP companies. So that crack spread where the refiners, Bono, I talked about it a little bit. Their input cost is the barrel of oil. They're the ones that actually can build margin on this where the rest actually subtract margin.
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Guy Adami
And if you look refiners until recently have done well. Valero was making an all time high a couple of weeks ago. It's sold off. So yeah, I mean it comes down to input what they're buying a barrel crude for and then what they're selling the products for. I'll say this gold oil compared to the S&P 500 historic low oil versus gold historic low. An ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil for the first time I think since the mid-1970s. So you're talking about some historic things right now. In terms of the underlying commodity, does that signal. Well, to me it's underlying weakness and I think it's an economic thing. Listen, it's a supply thing for sure, but it's the economies are not picking up the slack and it's be careful what you wish for. I understand there's a want to have crude lower. Go back to the first Trump administration. There was a certain point where he was actually going to opec, OPEC telling them to stop putting more crude out because it was too cheap. So we walk a fine line here in terms of our producers.
- [08:10]
Host/Moderator
All right, let's get to Pfizer here. Dropping nearly 3 1/2% after the company gave disappointing guidance for next year. The pharma giant sees adjusted earnings of 280 to $3 a share. That's shy of the 305 analysts were expecting. Revenues expect to be basically flat from this year. The company seen declining sales of its Covid medications and vaccine facing headwinds from patent expirations and Medicare price cuts. CEO Albert Berla no surprise. Very sort of saying basically we are not going to change how we invest in vaccines and how we view vaccines just because of the administration's stance on vaccines. So they will continue to do that. But this sort of raises the question, you know, they've been making acquisitions. We all knew about the loss of exclusivity that is coming down the pike. But things might take longer than expected. Even if the acquisitions are made today. And that's sort of what the message that we're getting from Pfizer today.
- [09:01]
Melissa Lee
If I look at the patent cliff, which you just discussed, if you look at the three names that are the most exposed to the patent cliff, it's Amgen, Bristol Myers and Merck. We've seen some acquisitions done in the space to sort of alleviate that patent cliff anxiety or headwinds. Pfizer is way down on that. They only risk about 35% of their revenue. I wouldn't be worried about being long Pfizer right now, even though that COVID vaccine headwind is still there.
- [09:28]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I look at Pfizer, I mean, this is stock that made its all time high four years ago. It's done nothing since. Every bounce has been a sell. I mean, Carter can look at a chart and there's nothing compelling about in my opinion. I mean, we'll look at valuation, but that's been the case for a long time. I think Bristol's on the verge of breaking out. Merck has been floundering around $100 and it's Eli Lilly's game. And unfortunately for the rest of Big Cap Pharma, they're taking all the investment dollars. I'll say this, all those biotech stocks we talk about, they've done well and they are in play in 2026.
- [09:58]
Host/Moderator
Scotiabank had an interesting note about the things that are underappreciated about, you know, potential upsides for Pfizer. One of them is that the medsera acquisition actually puts Pfizer into a number two position behind Eli Lilly in the obesity weight loss drug camp. And that would be a very interesting sort of turn of events and certainly a catalyst for Pfizer.
- [10:17]
Bono
Yeah, I mean, I think there's a couple of catalysts. You're starting to see rotation away from, you know, the MAG7 complex into more defensive posture names. I mean, some of the readings that we got today, whether it be unemployment or payrolls or revised numbers, do seem to suggest that there is some rotation that's warranted. With that said, seeing this move from Pfizer for a name that trades at like a 4850 beta, I mean, that's somewhat concerning. I mean, it kind of flies in the face of all of the things that you mentioned that are constructive to the name. It trades on low valuation. You know, it's like a large bellwether name that's institutionally owned. So I think it's. I think it's tough. I think the biotech complex and the amount of investment dollars that are flowing into that are likely cannibalizing some of the upside opportunity here.
- [11:01]
Host/Moderator
The pair of twos.
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Carter Worth
You know, I'm in the bearish to bullish reversal by camp meaning oh, so this is saying, just as Guy pointed out, it's been going down for the last three, four years since 2021, down some 65%. And if you look at its relative performance to the S and P, it's an all time low going back to 1980 and it's an all time low to the entire s and P500 health care sector. That being said, I think those April lows associated with the general plunge in the market associated with tariffs at 22 are good lows. In fact, today's little aftermarket action would leave the stock down to the penny to its still rising 100 day moving average.
- [11:39]
Host/Moderator
So bad it's good.
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Guy Adami
Listen, you know, if Tim were here, we'd say it's Tim's Pfizer and Karen's Pfizer too. But you know, it's funny you say number two in in GLP1 Novo Nordisk is number two. Look what that stock has done over. Number two in this space is not the place you want to be, clearly.
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Bono
But number two is if it was.
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Host/Moderator
Number, it was number one and went to number two. And that's the problem. Pfizer is nowhere fair. Number two, that's which makes a big difference.
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Guy Adami
You always make excellent points. You did it this morning from 6 to 9am that sounds like another pair I was watching.
- [12:11]
Host/Moderator
All right, let's get to shares of Comcast jumping today. The stock the best performer in the S&P 500. Some speculation swirling that the company could be an activist target. Julie Borson has more on this. Hey Julia. Hey Melissa. Comcast shares finishing the day up over 5%. Our colleague David Faber reporting this morning that recent swap transactions in Comcast may indicate activist involvement. Wolf Research weighing in on what it calls Comcast opportunity to solve its increasingly egregious undervaluation. Saying that the Warner Brothers Discovery auction may cause the stars to align for Comcast shareholders. Suggesting that Comcast might consider strategic alternatives for for NBC Universal and that NBCU could merge with a company that loses out in the bidding for Warner Brothers Discovery. And light sheds Rich Greenfield suggesting that Paramount Skydance could abandon the Warner Brothers Discovery bid and pursue a merger with NBC Universal. Saying a merger of Paramount and NBC Universal could create a more compelling narrative. Meanwhile, just in the last hour reports that Warner Brothers Discovery is preparing to tell shareholders as soon as tomorrow that they should reject Paramount's latest offer for Warner Brothers Discovery. Back over to you. Yeah, Julia, there's also a Versant, which is our soon to be parent company, the spin off from Comcast, which is trading, which debuted on Monday in a when issued basis, the valuation of six and a half billion dollars. What does that imply for the value of what remains the Discovery portion of the Warner Brothers Discovery? Because that, that does impact how these deals are valued, these offers. Yeah, there's, there's this question. I mean, of course nothing here is apples to apples, Melissa. It's all apples compared to different fruits. But it does impact the perception of the remainder of the Warner Brothers Discovery assets that Netflix would not be purchasing. Because of course Netflix wants to purchase just the studio and streaming division Paramount. Skydance's offer is for the entirety of Warner Brothers Discovery. David Ellison, the CEO of Paramount, saying on our air in an interview with David Faber that he sees the those assets being worth the equivalent of about $1 per share. The issue here is that where Warner Brothers Discovery's leadership has decided to go with this Netflix offer with the idea that they could then monetize those separate assets, the linear TV assets, separately with a spinoff. And then of course there's also the potential for another deal for those assets as well. Okay, Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin. And of course, if Warner Brothers does help Paramount to go away, who does that leave? Netflix. So what do we do here?
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Guy Adami
Well, I think Netflix thought this for a while incorrectly, but I think Netflix is the point now where regardless of what happens, I think the stock has just gotten itself too cheap. I'll say this, and we mentioned a week or so, the one that nobody seems to be talking about for some reason is Lionsgate and Steve Cohen. And you know, familiar with Steve Cohen, I mean he's been building a position a couple other people as well. So very quietly li on if you pull up a chart over the last week and a half, two weeks seemingly is breaking out to the upside.
- [15:12]
Melissa Lee
I think you wait a little bit longer. I agree with Guy. Netflix looks a little cheap, but it's also been in a declining trend line pretty recently. So maybe you wait for 85 on the charts. I don't know if you get it or don't, but if you look at Roku, platform revenue has been increasing. AD dollar has been increasing. It's up 49% year to date. Netflix is up 6%. This is a quiet stealthy play that if you could just bet on all the streaming platforms, they're receiving tailwinds.
- [15:40]
Host/Moderator
Yeah.
- [15:43]
Bono
I think you know what we've seen with Paramount, Skydance with Warner Bros. Discovery has kind of made this space in play. And then drilling down into some of the financials, I mean you look at free cash flow yield, you're looking at 19, 20%. I think from a valuation standpoint, it's probably cheap. I can understand why someone wouldn't be poking around here. With that said, I wouldn't get ahead of myself in terms of the kind of hysteria around these acquisitions. You could find yourself kind of chasing a higher high temporarily on the bet that it's going to be acquired or taken private and then unfortunately left holding the proverbial ball as it drops back down to earth. It's traded at this level for quite some time. With that said, I think you can own it for no other reason than the free cash flow is pretty compelling.
- [16:27]
Host/Moderator
What do you see in these charts?
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Carter Worth
I mean look, something's wrong with the business, right? If your price momentum tells you more about a business than anything.
- [16:35]
Bono
Right.
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Carter Worth
Before you go and look at the statement of the balance sheet and talk if it's been going down and down and down, something is wrong if it's going up. So the question is, does this one day move on? Very heavy volume change anything? It's news related. It's speculative.
- [16:46]
Host/Moderator
You're talking about.
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Carter Worth
I'm talking about context. Thank you. Force. I mean that's the big one we're talking about right now. Now the more interesting one is the one that guy brought up, Lionsgate, that is exhibiting characteristics which suggest it's headed immediately higher.
- [16:58]
Host/Moderator
So Comcast, we should note, is currently our parent company still. And you think it's still going lower? I'm just asking for a friend.
- [17:05]
Carter Worth
Yeah, yeah.
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Host/Moderator
You know, curious, right?
- [17:07]
Carter Worth
Again, think about if you, if you look at price action, it's like studying the stats of an athlete without knowing it or studying a student stats without all of the things, oh well, he's such a nice person or he's the stats speak the stats, your ultimate stats, not your earnings. It's your share price. The share price is going down. That tells you a lot. Now can share prices reverse? That's what bearish to bullish reversals are. But that's not happened yet here.
- [17:29]
Host/Moderator
Okay, we've got a news alert in the airline space bankrupt, low cost carrier Spirit Airlines is in talks to merge with Frontier. That is according to Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter who say that a transaction could be announced as soon as this month. This news comes just a Day after Frontier replaced its CEO, nearly a decade of nearly a decade. Barry Biffle. So this is one to watch for seeing frontier group higher by 9%. In another administration, this would have been thought as impossible. And yet here it is.
- [17:58]
Guy Adami
Well, I don't know what this does. Let's, let's focus on the stocks you should be focused on right now. I mean, Spirit Airlines obviously was a disaster. Maybe this gets a bounce in Frontier, but Delta is the place to be. And I think again, if Tim were here, he'd be talking about it. So the best stock and I think still the best airline is Delta. To me, if you want to be in the airlines, that's where you want to be.
- [18:17]
Host/Moderator
One of the best performers in the transports.
- [18:19]
Carter Worth
If you look at the ETF jets, I mean, this testament to price action, this thing is straight up. The transports overall have been doing well, but the airlines are leading that. And I think you continue to see more coming up.
- [18:30]
Host/Moderator
We're watching Lennar on the move after earnings. The details and numbers from that one next. Plus Wall Street's quantum leap where one analyst sees opportunity in the quantum computing space. And the name that could double over the next year do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in June.
- [18:45]
Carter Worth
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee.
- [18:47]
Melissa Lee
Right here on cnbc. Before the trophy and bragging rights are rightfully yours. Before your sleeper turns in a season no one saw coming, before stats and projections turn into points on the board and your lineup falls perfectly into place, you flip the lid on a can of on nicotine pouches. And as you make your first pick, you know this is the season where fantasy's going to surpass reality. It's on products for tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. Warning. This product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.
- [19:23]
Host/Moderator
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu hi, it's Eva Longoria and let's be real. After 40, we should ask for more from our skincare. I swear by Revitalift Triple power Moisturizer by l' Oreal Paris. With vitamin C pro, retinol and hyaluronic acid. It reduces my wrinkles. Firms and brightens. And it's not a procedure. It's just a hard working moisturizer. Revitalift Triple power Moisturizer by l' Oreal Paris. Grab it today in fragrance, free or with SPF 30. Available at your local target. Welcome back to Fast Money and Earnings Alert. On Lennar. Shares of the homebuilding home builder dropping after mixed Q4 earnings and disappointing guidance. CNBC's Diana Olich got the detail. Hey, Diana. Hey, Melissa. That's right. Very mixed for Lennar. Big beat on revenue, but guidance not so good for the new year. The homebuilder also said earnings were weighed down by a $156 million one time loss related to a Melrose Properties exchange offer. Now, gross margin on home sales of 17% was short of the 17.5% forecast. Deliveries increased 4% year over year, beating expectations. But new orders came in very slightly lower than expectations. Now here's the guidance on Q1 deliveries. It was between 17 and 18,000 versus estimates 20,000. New orders estimated between 18 and 19,000 versus estimates of close to 20,000. Lennar's executive chairman Stuart Miller said in the release, our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results reflect a disciplined commitment to increasing housing supply in a market constrained by affordability challenges as well as weak consumer confidence. Something we didn't know. To address continued market declines, he said we maintained approximately 14% in incentives and price adjustments. Melissa, 14% means you take the list price, you knock 14% off. I mean, does that include things like that? Yeah, 14% of the total cost. It could be buy downs, it could be incentives of, you know, throwing in the granite or something. Or it could be lowered prices. It's all of that together. Wow. Okay, Diana. Thank you, Diana. Olek.
- [21:42]
Guy Adami
Got to throw the granite in.
- [21:43]
Carlos Domingo
Yeah.
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Host/Moderator
I mean, you've had a lot of answers through the graph, the deal. What are you going to have otherwise for Micah? I mean, come on, 14%. That, that's a big number.
- [21:53]
Guy Adami
And so let you know, I'm not at all favorable on the homebuilders. I'll say this, that quarter, first quarter guidance was not good. Deliveries 17, 18,000. The street was north of 20, slightly north of 20,000. Average selling price lower than expected and margins lower than expected. And this is against the backdrop of unemployment rate going higher, as we saw today, and interest rates, in my opinion, going higher. I think Lennar takes out the April low, which I think is 104. And I think all the homebuilders are headed lower.
- [22:21]
Host/Moderator
This morning on Squawk Box, I spoke to Oliver Chen, the retail analyst over TD Cowan, and he had a great turn of phrase. The consumer is fundamentally strong. So their balance sheets are okay. They've got jobs they are sentimentally weak, meaning they don't feel good. You're not going to buy a house certainly if you're not feeling good. And mortgage rates are probably not going to go below 6%. So with all those things said Bonoin, where do you fall on housing?
- [22:49]
Bono
I think if there's one that you own, and it's the only one that I own now, I've moved some things around. It's toll, I mean you just want to, you want, you want exposure to the high end. These people are going to be making a pricing, a home decision, not really dependent on pricing. And then if you also drill down into some of the fundamentals, you look at Lennar, I think it trades at like 14 times, 14 and a half times Ford versus a bulk of them that trade around 10. And I think DHI, which is kind of your largest, most vertically integrated, the trades a full turn, a turn and a half lower. So I just think that it's kind of gotten a little bit ahead of itself. Not to mention the whole spec building that they were doing. And then you already mentioned it, 14%. However you want to add up those numbers, it's a large chunk and it is clearly weighing on margin. The bet that they were making is that with the buy downs, with the incentives, they were going to continue to be able to play into an accelerating momentum. What you're seeing is continued spin on those buy downs and decelerating momentum. And I think that that makes for a very challenging path forward.
- [23:48]
Carter Worth
I mean it's a, it's a struggling area within the general consumer discretionary complex. Right. It's highly cyclical. It's, there's so many things relating to rates and not only how the consumer is behaving, but the main thing about Lennar is it's trading at a 10 year relative low to its peers. Something's not right.
- [24:06]
Melissa Lee
You know, when you look at these guys cover the homebuilders. Dr. Horton would be my favorite homebuilder to buy. None of the charts look great. This one I do like, but I'm going to go a different way and go Home Depot or Lowe's. Home Depot looks like it's going to turn around to me. And if rates even are a smidge lower, they don't need to really go as low as mortgage rates need to go. They just need to go lower. And this stock can perform how much.
- [24:25]
Host/Moderator
Is a spidge this technical, you know, now we have quantum calls on Wall street where one firm is placing their bets in the quantum space and the stock they say can double over the next year. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ marketsite in Times Square. Back right after this.
- [24:45]
Melissa Lee
Before the trophy and bragging rights are rightfully yours. Before your sleeper turns. In a season no one saw coming before, stats and projections turn into points on the board and your lineup falls perfectly into place, you flip the lid on a can of on nicotine pouches. And as you make your first pick, you know this is the season where fantasy is going to surpass reality. It's on products for tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.
- [25:13]
Host/Moderator
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Breaking news on Medline's IPO pricing. Leslie Picker's got the details. Leslie hey, Melissa. Yes, we officially have the biggest IPO globally this year with Medline pricing its IPO at $29 per share. That's according to a person familiar with the matter. That's a dollar below the high end of the range. But the company did upsize its IPO by about a billion dollars, which makes the total offering size about $6.2 billion for this deal. It also implies a market cap of about $53.4 billion. So very sizable for the medical surgical products and supply chain producer here. This is also the largest leveraged buyout to go public ever in history. So lots of superlatives here to look at when this one begins trading tomorrow. But it's an important test for both the IPO market, given just its sheer size and scale, as well as for private equity, given that it is the largest LBO to go public, especially given that it was purchased in 2021 in that class. So a lot of deals in the pipeline looking at this one to do well tomorrow. Melissa all right, Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker, as Leslie mentioned, private equity owned $15 billion in debt, so it's going to use some of these proceeds to pay down its debt. But that is quite a hefty chunk of debt that that it will have when it actually goes public markets.
- [27:18]
Guy Adami
You know, if you're not named Oracle if you're not getting the debt on the wrong side of the ledger. I mean, the market is rewarding you. And there's a reason why Goldman Sachs is trading the way it is and some of the other investment banks. Now, with that said, they've probably all gotten a little bit ahead of themselves in terms of price and valuation. However, the landscape looks really good for these guys going forward.
- [27:38]
Host/Moderator
All right, meantime, let's get to our call of the day here. D Wave Jefferies initiating coverage of the quantum computing stock with a buy ra $45 price target, implying 76% upside from today's close. Analysts writing the company stands to benefit from industry tailwinds, a strong balance sheet and first mover advantage in commercial quantum adoption. This has been a trade grass that you've been in on.
- [28:00]
Melissa Lee
It has, and I made my money there. I'm on to the other one. I'm on to inflection, which is CCC. It's a SPAC. It's merging. Supposed to close in Q1, 20, 26. There's so many different techniques or strategies that these companies use. They're there, they use annealing, then there's neutral atoms, which is what inflection does. And then there's trapped ions, which is what ion Q does. It's very confusing, but I think the Runway is pretty good for all of these names going forward.
- [28:31]
Host/Moderator
Is this the next AI trade? That's what we're always asked. Is this the next AI trade? Is a quantum next? Is it too early for quantum?
- [28:37]
Bono
I think it's. I think it's the current AI trade. You've seen these names come from single digits to 20, 40. I mean, depending on the name. Listen, I think the compelling story in the Jefferies piece was essentially that this has a stack behind it. So as opposed to a standalone technology, much like Nvidia, and I'm making that comparison very loosely, there is an integrated software stack around it which likely will attract people if they can get enough users, then there will be some stickiness there. With that said, this is the portion of AI I've been on record saying it. I'll say it again, that does scare me the most. It is the most speculative we're talking about. If things go well, this thing's going to make $400 million. We're talking about like very small numbers here that as of right now, do not justify the valuation. So, sure, I believe that given the momentum behind it and given retail's desire to have beta, you can see this thing perform. I still don't think that the fundamentals as they are now support the stock prices of this or any of the others in the space.
- [29:39]
Carter Worth
I mean, you said the key word it's beta, right? I mean, think about this. The Sandals is offering a price target of 45. That's what the stock was trading October 15th. Just two months ago it was at 45. It dropped 67% to 19 and now it's climbed back to 25. It's beta and beta only. It's highly speculative. Valuation is hard to pin down if anything. So the question is, do you speculate long or short? Go with the analysts or not? Pair two is for me.
- [30:05]
David Zervos
Yeah.
- [30:06]
Host/Moderator
Coming up, why there could be a Goldilocks scenario unfolding in the markets. David Zervos of Jefferies joins us next to lay out his take and where he's seeing the most opportunity heading into year end fast when he's back into. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks closing mix but well off the lows of the day. The Dow down more than 300 points. The s and P down a quarter of a percent. Both now on three day losing streaks but the Nasdaq managing to close in the green up about a quarter of a percent, snapping a three day losing streak. Shares of Estee Lauder getting a boost today up more than 3%. Analysts at bank of America adding the cosmetics company to their best Ideas list for 2026 shares up nearly 40% this year and shares a micron 2% lower today as the company gears up to report results after the bell tomorrow. The semi stock has surged more than 175% this year. Well, Wall Street's getting into two months of delayed jobs data today. Non farm payrolls dropping in October by 105,000, but they grew by a better than expected 64,000 in November. The unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, its highest level since September 2021. Let's get reaction from CNBC contributor David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies. David, great to see you.
- [31:18]
David Zervos
Good to see you, Melissa.
- [31:20]
Host/Moderator
How do you examine this data? How does this change, if at all your view of the Fed and what it does next year?
- [31:26]
David Zervos
Well, first thing I'd say is all of this data has to be taken with a much larger grain of salt than we usually take it with. And that's a pretty large grain of salt to begin with as the data consistently gets revised and certainly has been suspect for a number of years. We had million and a half job revisions in 2023 and 2024 lower. And as chair Powell said in his press conference, he expects more revisions to the downside in this year. So I would say this is as noisy as it gets. But the trend, Melissa, is kind of consistent with what we've seen. Good growth data, not a lot of jobs coming from that growth data. Lots of productivity growth and real wages rising, which is good, but not rising fast enough to get the Fed nervous.
- [32:09]
Host/Moderator
You're constructive on equities, no surprise going into next year. And part of that is the Goldilocks scenario. But I really wanted to focus also on, on what was not called qe, but is de facto QE in terms of the asset purchases the Fed announced on the shorter end of the yield curve. How do these two play into, you know, with each other to create that sort of constructive backdrop that you see?
- [32:34]
David Zervos
Well, Melissa, you know, we've, we've been living in this QE world since 2009. The Fed has almost always tried to push aside these ideas that it is a monetary policy tool. They, they've tried to use it as a surrogate in times of stress, but then downplayed as much as they can in times of strength. The reality is when the Fed does qe, they add liquidity to the system, they monetize debt. And that is something that the markets, the risk asset markets, key off of. And I think the risk asset markets are keying off of these reserve management purchases, the RMP as they call them, I like to call them ramps, reserve asset management purchases, because it sounds like what they're going to do to equities going into next year. But I think it's important to always take the Fed's storyline with the balance sheet a little bit. You know, just downplay what they're saying because I think they're hiding a little bit of what the balance sheet really does. And it does a lot and has done a lot, and I think it will continue to do a lot. And this is actually probably one of the more important parts of why the market reacted so positively to last Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
- [33:45]
Guy Adami
David, I'm curious your thoughts about this. Historically, markets love to challenge a new Fed chair. If you go back in time, you can see and we're going to have a new one in May and it's going to be under a much different backdrop than we've historically seen. Do you anticipate something like that happening?
- [34:00]
David Zervos
I do, actually. I think that's. You're exactly right. When Alan Greenspan came in, I believe it was in September of 87 or August of 87, I can't remember, it was October when we had a pretty big test. So absolutely, yes, we will test him, him or her in the new job. And we've done that. We tested Bernanke, we tested Janet Yellen, we tested Jay Powell. Certainly in 2018. He got, he got some testing. It was a little later. But they always get their sea legs and the markets sort of learn how to deal with them and, and we move on and we move forward. I don't know how big this one is going to be, but I would definitely be playing for some test in.
- [34:40]
Host/Moderator
Terms of the short term, in terms of your bullishness, David, though, how, when does this mostly unfold? Is this, is this a back end loaded kind of year that we're looking at?
- [34:51]
David Zervos
You know, it's hard to say. We could come out of the gates doing pretty well. The growth data looks strong. The economic data overall for GDP and the like continues to be unbelievably impressive. We just had two consecutive quarters of 4% growth without creating hardly any new jobs. There is a productivity story here and it's been brewing for almost three years now. That suggests we are really in that more Goldilocks 90s style economy and the equity markets are going to continue to price that in a more positive way. The question is what, you know, what kind of stumbles we get. Will there be thoughts on the next Fed chair? Will there be, you know, the committee going through some machinations with the Lisa Cook trial? There's all sorts of things to play with there, but there's a lot of good news. We've got oil prices at I think, what, four or five year lows? I mean, sort of rates look like they're headed down and hopefully we'll get those lower mortgage rates coming through. All of this sort of supports everything in the bullish camp. I think the real question is what's that transition around the Fed? How does the credibility of the new makeup of the Fed transmit itself into risk assets? And there could be some bumps, but I think it's really hard to tell whether they come early or late. I think we are going to end up with a more dovish Fed and ultimately more dovish Fed is bullish for risk assets.
- [36:15]
Host/Moderator
David, great to see you. Thank you.
- [36:18]
David Zervos
Always a pleasure.
- [36:19]
Host/Moderator
David Zervos. We've got a news alert on a potential capital raise at Waymo. Kate Rogers got the details on this. Kate? Melissa. That's right. It's a very large capital raise here. This is the information reporting that Waymo is in early talks with potential investors to raise more money at a valuation of at least $100 billion. That's according to people familiar with the company's plans. The size of the round, the report says, will at least be seen several billions of dollars, possibly even more than 10 billion. But the valuation has not been set. The funding is expected to be arranged early next year. Just a reminder, the company last raised 5.6 billion at a $45 billion valuation. So this more than 100 billion, you know, more than doubling that number. And also just for context, waymo also projected 1 million weekly rides by late 2026. So once again, the information reporting here, Waymo in early talks with potential investors to raise more money at a valuation of at least $100 billion. Melissa, back over to you. Big numbers. Kate, thanks. Kate rogers, Coming up, the rise of tokenization and how one fintech company is pushing it into the mainstream. The CEO Securitize joins us next when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to FAST money. Tokenization is gaining momentum on Wall street with financial powerhouses from Apollo Group to JP Morgan turning real world assets into blockchain based Secur. Today, one of the industry's leaders, Securitize, announced plans to bring on chain stock trading to its platform. The company is also preparing for an IPO and to tokenize its own shares once public. For more, Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo joins us here on set. Carlos, welcome. Thanks for having me. We were just talking during the break. You've been working on this for eight years or so, but only in the six past six months or so has tokenization really come to the forefront to the mainstream in terms of being a theme on Wall Street. Why do you think that is?
- [38:09]
Carlos Domingo
I think partly obviously because of the regulatory changes and the new chair of the sec, Paul Atkins, who is a big proponent of tokenization and how they've embraced the industry and that has made the more traditional firms, if you want that obviously are very conscious about taking regulatory risk to start taking this space more seriously. And the other thing I was mentioning to you is I think 2024, when BlackRock decided to enter the space with us and being BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world and one of the most arguably influential firms in the space, that was also an eye opening for a lot of people that, you know, make the space grow significantly, explain.
- [38:44]
Host/Moderator
To the average person out there why things should be tokenized. Things seem to be working fine right now. So what does tokenization get you?
- [38:51]
Carlos Domingo
Yeah, things work fine or not Depending on what part of the industry works. But. But essentially it's a very simple idea.
- [38:57]
Bono
So.
- [38:57]
Carlos Domingo
So everything you own, whether you own stocks, bonds, funds, money market funds, Treasuries, whatever the ownership is recorded on a ledger, right? Somewhere it says that you own X shares of this. And then every time there is any sort of transaction you trade, you redeem, you get a dividend paid, etc. That involves updating sometimes multiple ledgers that are siloed, that are outdated technology, they're not connected to each other. And even though things seem to be working well, the reality is that behind the scenes, there's a lot of plumbing that intermediaries and inefficiencies that people are not aware of it. So if you think about what tokenization is, is essentially upgrading the ledger where capital markets run to a better ledger technology that is public, that is, you know, distributed, cryptographically secured, etc. Which will improve how people transact with securities.
- [39:43]
Guy Adami
Carlos, congratulations. You have a 20% market share of a market that seemingly doubles every year or two. And some of the projections are pretty extraordinary. I don't know if you can keep the 20%, but even if it's 10 to 15% of that growing market cap, it's a significant market share that you have. Can you do the math for us here?
- [40:02]
Carlos Domingo
So the market today is very small. Actually, we are the largest player, but the market is around 25, $30 billion, depending on how many things you include there. Even if I don't keep 20% market share, if I keep 10% market share, but the market really goes to the bottom of the projections is like around $2 trillion. So $2 trillion, 10% of that is 200 billion. So our company will grow tremendously in the next few years. So it's a very exciting part of the market to be.
- [40:28]
Melissa Lee
Carlos, when you look at the opportunity, is it like, what's the biggest impact? Because I could make the case for anything to be tokenized, but there's certain stronger cases. Is it real estate? Is it artwork, Is it collectibles, Is it bonds? Where do you see the biggest opportunity.
- [40:41]
Carlos Domingo
To leave your footprint actually, is the other way around. Like at the beginning of the industry, people were very excited about illiquid assets like, you know, art or collectibles or real estate, etc. And I think what. What the market has come to realize in the last few years is that the most liquid assets, by tokenizing them, you make them even much more efficient, easier to transact, eliminate intermediate, etc. So the largest asset today Tokenized is actually a dollar. Stablecoins are tokenized dollars and the second largest asset is tokenized Treasuries treasury funds, which is also a very liquid asset but by putting it on a blockchain you actually improve how it transacts, eliminates intermediaries costs, make them more accessible, et cetera. So I don't think that, I think you'll see Treasuries you mentioned Apollo Credit is good bonds. We just released with bny a triple A Cielo product that tokenized this, you know, high quality bonds, etc. So we'll see those assets first and of course public equities as you mentioned, we're going to tokenize our own.
- [41:34]
Host/Moderator
So. So in theory, for instance for equities settlement will be immediate I would imagine.
- [41:39]
David Zervos
Correct.
- [41:39]
Host/Moderator
And costs will come way down.
- [41:41]
Carlos Domingo
Settlement is in there. So what you mentioned that we announced today is actually that you can actually settle trades between stable coins and tokenized equities on chain instantly. Blockchains have this property called atomic settlement that sells two things at the same time and that eliminates intermediaries, freeze capital, etc. Of course in some other cases maybe instant settlement is not what you want. But for the people that wanted the blockchain provides with that functionality.
- [42:04]
Host/Moderator
Carlos, great to see us. See you. Come back and update us on your business.
- [42:08]
Carlos Domingo
Sure. As soon as we go public we'll have to be back here.
- [42:12]
Guy Adami
He's still here but I'll say I don't know what the timing of the IPO is but it's going to come out as a SPAC sec Z I think and again it's going to be interesting because the total addressable market seemingly is going to grow significantly over the next couple of years. I mean this is a real business which and they're the leader in the space so congratulations to them.
- [42:29]
Host/Moderator
Coming up, driving into GM Technicals where the Chartmaster sees this stock heading next and why you may want to wear your seatbelt for fast money. And two. Welcome back to Fast Money. General Motors today hitting levels not seen since emerging from bankruptcy in 2010. Shares up more than 50% this year. But the Chartmaster thinks it is time to sell the automaker. Why Carter?
- [42:54]
Carter Worth
Well sometimes you know you're full expensive is a is a hard word to use valuations a bad timing tool. Let's go right to the charts and try to figure it out together year so this is an all data charge since this new iteration coming out of bankruptcy and we're up to the internal trend line in effect since the ipo, a big move to a difficult level. Another way to draw the lines. Since the lows of two years ago, we are at the upper band of the channel. In this period, the stock is up 215% two years. Compare that to the S&P up 50%, the Sox up 100. Even the Mag 7 only up 118. General Motors outperforming everything including Mag 7. Let's keep going. And so next iteration again, there's the magnitude of this move, a two year move that's quite a bit bigger than the mag7. And final chart, just how far above the smoothing mechanism we are. We are at the highest point ever in terms of percent above the 150 day moving average. So at a minimum, take profits, sell calls, do something, put on a risk reversal. And for those who do engage in selling short, I would get in motion.
- [44:00]
Host/Moderator
Meantime, Tesla intraday record high. So how does this one look?
- [44:04]
Carter Worth
Right back to a former high. Right. This stock peaked in about a year and a half ago. We might have some charts and let's go through those as well. So what we know is that Tesla is literally right back to its former highs of about 18 months ago. So is it going to be a double top or is it a breakout? I would offer you. Would you rather. So would you rather be long or short Tesla? Does it break out as annotated it right there. Or look at the second iteration. Is this a double top? And the stock ultimately checks back to the trend line that's been in effect over the past year. My hunch is we check back here, which is a normal enough, you know, give back before ultimately breaking out.
- [44:44]
Guy Adami
Oh, I'm sorry, go ahead.
- [44:45]
Host/Moderator
How about you? What. What's your hunch. What's your hunch on breakout or check back?
- [44:51]
Bono
I think he's right on both calls actually. If I'm playing the game, which I love to play, I think I'd rather. I'd rather Tesla convincing. I think I'd rather Tesla here. I mean, Carter makes a very good point. It's like if you look at the performance of gm, I understand that there's tailwinds in terms of the pullback from EVs, the tariff scare kind of subsiding. But this is a name that's gotten ahead of pretty much everything that have way more compelling growth stories behind them. So I'd prefer Tesla over Gary. GM here.
- [45:20]
Guy Adami
Look at GM real quick. We talked about it last night. Tim's done a great job. 72 is a prior high in a month ago, in November maybe. That's your check back level.
- [45:29]
Melissa Lee
Yeah if you look at the all these companies GM and Ford get to sell what actually people want to buy so they're not motivated to sell the EVs anymore. So that could be a win for the two of them. It could be a win for Tesla. And would you rather rather, rather Rivian as well? Throw that one the bucket.
- [45:42]
Host/Moderator
Not ask that but fine. Up next, final trades, Final trade time.
- [45:51]
Melissa Lee
Steve, you can go broke on picking bottles in ethereum, but I did add to my eth grayscale mints.
- [45:56]
Carter Worth
Carter nothing wrong with taking profits. Sell some GM if you're long bona win.
- [46:01]
Bono
Well being that Carter's on the show, I'm going to take my stab at a bearish to bullish reversal.
- [46:05]
Guy Adami
Name cvs Long day for you Melms, but you're killing it as usual. I think Netflix all right, thank you.
- [46:13]
Host/Moderator
For watching Fast Money. Mad Money Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer.
- [47:03]
Melissa Lee
Before the trophy and bragging rights are rightfully yours, before your sleeper turns in a season no one saw coming, before stats and projections turn into points on the board and your lineup falls perfectly into place, you flip the lid on a can of on nicotine pouches and as you make your first pick, you know this is the season where fantasy's going to surpass reality. It's on products for tobacco consumers 21 years of age or this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.