Debate: The Best Trades Right Now 7/2/25

Summary

Podcast Title: Debate: The Best Trades Right Now
Host: Scott Wapner
Release Date: July 2, 2025
Runtime: Approximately 45 minutes

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Introduction

The episode of CNBC’s "Fast Money" titled "Debate: The Best Trades Right Now" features host Scott Wapner alongside a panel of seasoned traders: Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Kevin Simpson, and Bryn Talkington. The discussion centers around current market sentiments, top-performing stocks, and strategic trading opportunities as the markets navigate through various economic indicators and corporate developments.

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Market Sentiment and Initial Analysis

Scott Wapner opens the discussion by acknowledging the mixed signals from the market, noting that while certain sectors are green, others like the Dow have dipped slightly. He prompts the panel to share their perspectives on the current market environment.

Bryn Talkington shares her view on growth stocks, suggesting that sectors such as technology (e.g., Robinhood, Palantir, Spotify) may be overextended. She emphasizes the potential for value stocks to gain traction once legislative bills pass, stating:

“I feel like those are those need to stop going higher... value names can kind of catch a bid and do a little bit of catch up.”
[02:22]

Steve Weiss expresses concern over the momentum factor weakening and rising yields, indicating potential challenges ahead:

“I don't like that we have lost the momentum factor... yields are higher.”
[02:50]

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Apple’s Performance and AI Strategy

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around Apple Inc., examining its recent performance and strategic moves in artificial intelligence (AI).

Steve Weiss notes Apple's recent upgrade by Jefferies and speculates on the stock's potential:

“For a trade, I do think you could buy this for a trade... some clarity yesterday that maybe they have a roadmap in front of them as it relates to the AI strategy.”
[09:08]

Kevin Simpson and Joe Terranova delve into Apple's reliance on third-party AI technologies versus internal development. They discuss the implications of Apple potentially partnering with AI firms like Perplexity, debating whether this strategy will suffice for future growth.

Joe Terranova highlights Apple's historical approach to innovation:

“They wait for somebody else to innovate and then they copy it... they've delayed, you know, AI for Siri.”
[05:32]

Bryn Talkington criticizes Apple's recent foray into foldable phones, labeling it as unoriginal and not sufficiently innovative to drive significant stock performance:

“I think buying back shares is still overdone. ... they have to do something they haven't been comfortable doing in the past.”
[07:20]

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Tesla’s Current Standing and Future Outlook

The panel shifts focus to Tesla, discussing its recent performance and market valuation.

Kevin Simpson describes Tesla's current stock status as underperforming despite initial positive surprises in deliveries:

“It's pretty lousy. Luckily we have only a 2.5% position in this.”
[14:33]

Bryn Talkington provides a price target, suggesting that Tesla may face resistance levels unless new revenue streams become clear:

“With their current business model, deteriorating fund, deteriorating fundamentals... call premium is so high.”
[16:30]

Joe Terranova agrees with the cautious outlook, emphasizing that external factors such as Elon Musk's public disputes may negatively impact the stock:

“Whenever he's fighting with Donald Trump that's bad for the stock.”
[15:11]

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Best Performing Mega Cap Stocks Debate

The core segment involves a debate on which mega-cap stock is poised to perform best over the next six months. The panel considers Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia as top contenders.

Joe Terranova nominates Nvidia, acknowledging its substantial growth but also hinting at overvaluation concerns:

“Meta is overvalued. I believe it is... Alphabet's not. But there's a fundamental issue with Alphabet which is search.”
[17:00]

Kevin Simpson counters by favoring Amazon, highlighting its diversified business model and various growth avenues:

“I think you can buy Amazon down here. This one's relatively underperformed its peer group.”
[18:10]

Bryn Talkington supports Nvidia, emphasizing its pivotal role in AI development and data centers, projecting a price target of $200:

“Nvidia is making the tech stacks that people are using for data centers. I think this breakout you can get if the market continues to rally.”
[18:36]

Steve Weiss aligns with Joe’s initial nomination for Nvidia, reinforcing its strategic importance despite potential overvaluation.

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Bank Stocks and Financial Sector Analysis

The conversation transitions to the financial sector, particularly focusing on major banks and their stock performance.

Steve Weiss expresses renewed interest in major banks like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley, citing their strong positioning and potential catalysts such as regulatory reforms and increased M&A activities:

“I think all of these money center banks are in the sweet spot... we own all of these.”
[20:22]

Kevin Simpson discusses the dividend strategies of banks, noting Goldman Sachs’ significant dividend hike and the implications for portfolio management:

“They raised their dividend by 33%... you've got to follow it.”
[21:03]

Joe Terranova remains optimistic about Goldman Sachs despite market volatility, citing their long-term strengths and leadership in the financial sector:

“I continue to have Goldman as my preferred play.”
[21:48]

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Other Notable Stocks and Trades

The panel addresses additional stocks and trading strategies, including:

• Robinhood: Highlighted as a strong performer despite high valuations, with Bryn mentioning its alignment with current financial trends.

• Netflix: Discussed as a resilient streaming platform, with Joe pointing out its strategic focus on leveraging music and reality shows.

• Walmart: Addressed in terms of tariff challenges affecting margins, but also recognized for its technological investments and omnichannel strategies.

• S&P Global: Identified as a key player in the financial services sector with strong performance metrics.

• Royal Caribbean: Noted for its turnaround and positive engagement from travelers, making it a compelling trade opportunity.

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Final Trades and Recommendations

As the episode concludes, each panelist shares their final trade picks and price targets:

• Bryn Talkington recommends Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), citing its breakout from resistance and potential for continued growth.

• Kevin Simpson suggests Honeywell as an undervalued stock poised for performance.

• Steve Weiss endorses Caterpillar, emphasizing its engagement with customers and onshoring trends.

• Joe Terranova adds Amgen to his watchlist, noting its technical indicators and growth prospects.

Steve Weiss underscores the importance of strategic stock selection and the impact of macroeconomic factors such as tariffs on retail giants like Walmart.

“The tariff challenge is real for these companies... They don't want to pass through the cost to the consumer.”
[28:05]

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Conclusion

Scott Wapner wraps up the episode by summarizing the key takeaways: the importance of market engagement, diversification across sectors, and cautious optimism towards tech giants and financial institutions. The panel provides a balanced view of current market dynamics, offering actionable insights for investors looking to navigate the second half of the year.

Notable Closing Remarks:

“These stocks, asset managers are going to perform well in the second half of the year because they have the engagement.”
[36:52]

“We own it. I love the stock. Technology is phenomenal.”
[30:58]

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Key Quotes with Timestamps

• Bryn Talkington:
  “I feel like those are those need to stop going higher... value names can kind of catch a bid and do a little bit of catch up.”
  [02:22]

• Steve Weiss:
  “I don't like that we have lost the momentum factor... yields are higher.”
  [02:50]

• Steve Weiss on Apple:
  “For a trade, I do think you could buy this for a trade... some clarity yesterday that maybe they have a roadmap in front of them as it relates to the AI strategy.”
  [09:08]

• Joe Terranova:
  “They wait for somebody else to innovate and then they copy it... they've delayed, you know, AI for Siri.”
  [05:32]

• Bryn Talkington on Apple's Foldable Phone:
  “I think buying back shares is still overdone. ... they have to do something they haven't been comfortable doing in the past.”
  [07:20]

• Steve Weiss on Bank Stocks:
  “I think all of these money center banks are in the sweet spot... we own all of these.”
  [20:22]

• Steve Weiss on Tariffs:
  “The tariff challenge is real for these companies... They don't want to pass through the cost to the consumer.”
  [28:05]

---

Final Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current trading landscape, blending technical analysis with strategic insights. The panelists offer diverse perspectives, making it a valuable resource for investors seeking to optimize their portfolios amidst evolving market conditions.

Transcript

[Edward Jones]

A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together.

[Steve Weiss]

EDWARD jones, Member, SIPC the potentially pivotal June jobs report. What will the data indicate about the strength of the labor market, implications for the economy and the Fed employment numbers and analysis squawk box tomorrow, 8:30 Eastern and streaming on CNBC.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in.

[Joe Terranova]

All right.

[Scott Wapner]

Thanks very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Walker. Front and center this hour, the best way to play the markets at new highs. We will debate that with the investment committee. Joining me today, Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Kevin Simpson and Bryn Talkington. We're green across the board. We did have adp, which was a miss. The dollar's up. Well, Dow is back red, but it's hugging the flat line here. The president says he has a deal with Vietnam. RBC's Lori Kalfa Cena says the rebound brand is starting to feel full from a few different vantage points. What about your vantage point? How's this market feel to you?

[Bryn Talkington]

I feel the growth, the growth stocks, the Robinhoods, the Palantir's, Spotify, etc. I feel like those are those need to stop going higher. I feel like there's been so much ebullition there. You want to see the value names be able to move up more than just one day yesterday because those are the have nots. And so I think after this bill gets passed, we're going to hear a lot of rhetoric rhythmic from the President Besson and the Senate, the House saying how pro growth this is going to be, how stimulative this is going to be while not causing inflation. So maybe those value names can kind of catch a bid and do a little bit of catch up. But right now the growth trade, growth trade really is leading the charge and seems to be overdone.

[Scott Wapner]

Joe, we really don't have much follow through at all on what was happening yesterday where it was, you know, NASDAQ down, Dow up big winners were losers, losers were winners. We thought maybe that was a one day phenomenon and maybe it's going to prove to be and only time is going to tell. But when Lori Calvisina says, okay, the rebound feels a little full at this point because we've rebounded a lot. Do you tend to agree or disagree with that?

[Steve Weiss]

I don't like that we have lost the momentum factor. I often say that the momentum factor is one of the better factors in providing the evidence that we are in the midst of a very strong bull market. Listen, I also don't like the fact that yields are higher. I think it's a little bit more going on here than surrounding the Bill in Washington, D.C. if you look globally you've got some challenges. Certainly in the UK right now you have yields there in the long end up 20 basis points. So we might be entering a phase here over the next 90 days with a bond market takes control. We get in this contentious debate on whether the Fed is going to cut. I still think September 17th they will be cutting but I think the third quarter if the bond market takes control then we could be susceptible to a sideways to lower quarter.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, I did mention that we didn't have all that much on the on the rotation continuation except Apple is leading the Dow. It's up near 2% and it did get upgraded today. It's from Jefferies. We haven't said Apple and upgrade in the same sentence very many times over the last several months, but it did today. Now it's to hold. It wasn't underperform, which was a significant call in and of itself. But we have been discussing over the last few days, Kevin, as to whether we were going to have a turning point for shares of one of America's most loved stocks and one of America's most owned stocks and one of the Mag7's worst stocks year to date. We can have a better second half for Apple?

[Kevin Simpson]

Well, I sure hope so. And I think the move yesterday that was sparking the recovery in the stock had a lot to do with their AI plans. And if they give up the internal ability to to create Apple intelligence and they tack on to a scale AI a perplexity in this case. I think they're talking about anthropic and open air more. Where's the dominant player? I think that would be fantastic for the stock because you've got 2.3 billion active users and if all of us collectively could actually turn Siri on and expect it to work occasionally, I think that would be a great step up. So I'm optimistic on the stock for the second half. I like the upgrade and I think you can buy it here.

[Scott Wapner]

Apple's up 5% twice this week and maybe sentiment is starting to turn that, you know, okay, if they make a decision that rather than in house they go to a third party for a significant portion of their AI with you know, their aspirations around Siri, so what, it's a significant move and it's the right move. And if you get AI right, better late than never.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, I agree with that. And they're always late because they don't innovate. So they wait for somebody else to innovate and then they copy it. However, they got caught with their pants down here because this is not where you can copy somebody else's features. You need the actual brains and underpinning of it so they can lease it. And I think that would be a great move for them because you've delayed, you know, AI for Syria, etc. For a long time now. Remember it was promised, you know, almost a year ago at this point. So I think that would be positive. I also think part of it and I agree with Kevin, that's part of what's wrong. I also think what's driving is you've seen such massive performance from the bottom on the other Mag 7 stocks that people looking to find so called bargains and this is a catch up trade as well. So you got those two things working for it. I still think that the others will outperform but you know, we've seen the bottom in Apple. You know normally if it were an Apple another company you'd be trading a lot lower in valuation but because they have been slow revenue growth, slow earnings growth over the last number of years. But at this point I would still rather be in the other Max 7 stocks for enduring performance on Brin.

[Scott Wapner]

The innovation aspect of this digitimes is reporting that Apple's begun prototyping a foldable iPhone and they eye a 2026 launch. What do you make of that news in the total story of whether you think Apple has the ability to have a really sizable rebound over the next six months because the year to date it's down 16% and that's after a nice move yesterday.

[Bryn Talkington]

So I mean I guess to Steve's point, so they're just going to copy Samsung. I mean we already have a foldable phone. So it's like this is where that's not innovative, that's just copying what Samsung already has. And so I don't, I find that.

[Scott Wapner]

But how many times do you hear people talk about the Samsung phones? I mean so what Never. Why is that ever matter? Why is it going to matter now?

[Bryn Talkington]

It's just a feature. It's there. So if you think about Apple, the vast majority of their revenues come from the hardware of people buying iPhones. And so the thesis a year and a half ago, which I disagreed with, I think Steve disagreed with it too, is that the iPhone 16 was not going to be exponential, it was going to be incremental. So now with the iPhone 17 and so how are you going to get us to speed up? Like I have an iPhone 14, very happy with it. How are you going to get the globe to speak, speed up that cycle? It's not going to be with a foldable phone. And so I think with Apple, this is a great company, they buy back their stocks, we all use their devices. But I think they are in that somewhat of a quandary of this is a late stage company that really needs to innovate and they have very big, you know, revenue numbers but they're not growing. And so I think a foldable phone is a nothing burger. I think buying back shares is still overdone. And how do you innovate? How does a hardware company innovate when all of the innovation is coming from software? And I think that's the big question with the stock. I still own the stock. I sold half in December. But I just think investors do need to understand we've seen this playbook before. Eastman Kodak, Polaroid, IBM, Cisco, you know, they really need to do something they haven't been comfortable doing in the past, which is to buy a company because they have to buy that innovation because they're not doing it internally.

[Scott Wapner]

You'll let us know when you sell the other half. It sounds like you have one foot out the door on the second half of your, your holding certainly does. Doesn't make a big case behind it. No, it doesn't.

[Steve Weiss]

Look, I think we're always searching for some fundamental catalyst. I think Steve really nailed it. A lot of this, the story so far in 2025 when you're looking at these mega cap companies, it's, it's all about Metta, it's all about Nvidia, it's all about Microsoft is a clear delineation. Then on the other side there's concerns surrounding Alphabet. We know the concerns with Apple and they haven't performed while sentiment positioning right now probably for Apple are as poor as it has been in many, many years. And for a trade, I do think I said it yesterday, I think you could buy this for a trade I think it probably goes to 20 to 25 easily. Doesn't mean six months from now it's the leader. But you're going to kind of get a little bit of a better feeling surrounding that sentiment because you got some clarity yesterday that maybe they have a roadmap in front of them as it relates to the AI strategy. We don't have to approve it, we don't have to agree with it, but at least you know the direction.

[Scott Wapner]

Do you not agree with it?

[Steve Weiss]

Well, I would have liked to have seen them innovate on their own, not have to go to a third party.

[Scott Wapner]

What difference does it make sense? I don't understand what difference it makes.

[Steve Weiss]

It doesn't, it doesn't make a difference. I don't think it makes a difference to the business model. I think it makes a difference to revenue. I think what we had wanted over the last six months is for them to be competitive with the other mega cap technology companies in an AI strategy. And just because we were unsatisfied in that regard. To your point, it probably doesn't make a difference for the share price.

[Joe Terranova]

Here's why it makes a difference, does make a difference today, but it makes a difference going forward because as AI continues to improve and as OpenAI and Anthropic continue to innovate and meta and the others on AI, Apple's not going to be innovating on it because they don't have those people internally. So you see the major if they're.

[Scott Wapner]

Doing the deals with the innovators, what difference?

[Joe Terranova]

Because they'll be further back in the queue for those upgrades because they're going to use them themselves first. So Open Air is going to deploy those first. Microsoft also has a call on what they're doing as a large shareholder in the company. So it's always the innovators who get first dibs and then the ones that are buying from them depending upon the.

[Scott Wapner]

Check now, not going to do with one of these companies and then watch whatever terms they pay, watch the innovations go to somebody.

[Joe Terranova]

Well, they're going to have to get there with. Well, I don't think that's true. They are not in the, they are not in the premier negotiating position right now unless they want to write a significantly larger check. And then you could ask why not buy Perplexity, which is phenomenal. AI in search.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, that seems to be where everybody's talking about what if they did do that? What if they, what if they did do that? Gene Munster was on Closing Bell with us yesterday, said they should buy Perplexity. Alex Cancer, which was at WWDC with us said they should buy Perplexity. If they buy Perplexity, are you, are you going to be happy with that?

[Joe Terranova]

I would be. There'd be some dilution because of the price tag but yes, I would be happy with it. They've got to use their cash for something. If you recall, I wanted to buy Netflix was $50 billion market cap. Think of what that would have done for them. How many more eyeballs? Look, it's, it's, it's got great products. Once you're in it, you're locked in. But believe me, the foldable phone as Brent says is not the key. I've seen foldable phones from Samsung, I'm sure we all have. They're unwieldy. The form factor, unless they make it equivalent to this and this is going to go lighter, then people aren't going to want it. It's a gimmick.

[Scott Wapner]

Brent, I saw you raising your hand over there.

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah. So it's like I want to be balanced here. So why do you, why do you buy Apple today? Why do I still hold it is I still believe that Siri is the, is the Trojan horse of all of this because we're all still using our Apple devices. So like I have the meta Ray Bans but you still have to use them through your Apple phone. And where Apple dominates everybody else is security. And so if you think about this AI assistant, ultimately once again you have Alexa but you have the app on your phone. And so people trust Apple and so if they can get Siri, whether it's an acquisition, what have you buying talent. You know, buying talent like Met is doing where we can have control and security over our data inside of there to be able to make plane reservations, to look in our emails because I don't think, I do think that's where ultimately this company can execute. But it's a timing perspective and so I think that you do need to think that Tim Cook is going to pull it off because I do think from a security perspective no one else does it like Apple.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah.

[Joe Terranova]

Let me sum it up this way. I need a reason to upgrade from my 4th 14 to 17. They didn't give it to me for this 15. They didn't give it to ME for the 16. I'm still waiting. I'm happy to hold this through the 20 as long as still works but.

[Steve Weiss]

I think that's the point. The ecosystem retention is remarkable for this company but you need will sit there and we will wait and they will pay you to wait because they'll buy back their stock.

[Scott Wapner]

So Tesla is another stock I want to look at today. It's looking to snap a six day losing streak. It is back above a trillion dollars in market cap. Speaking of mega caps that have not performed well down more than 20% year to date. Kev, what's your take here? Their deliveries missed Dan? I've said they're way better than feared which maybe matters more than anything else. And why the stock is reacting today the way it is seems kind of.

[Kevin Simpson]

Pathetic that we're getting excited because they were way better than fear. And so if you're looking at this.

[Joe Terranova]

As fear feels pretty bad when actual is pretty bad also 13, 13%.

[Kevin Simpson]

It's pretty lousy. Luckily we have only a 2.5% position in this. It's underweight. The various indices. I think that this is always a reminder to me like when you're sitting in high school and you think of like the smartest kid in the room may have been you but they don't always have the same strength.

[Scott Wapner]

Obnoxious.

[Joe Terranova]

I love the props. The only one who hasn't given me props today is you, Scott.

[Kevin Simpson]

Much like second place, they don't always have.

[Scott Wapner]

You showed up in that sport jacket. That's probably the reason why.

[Kevin Simpson]

Continue trying to learn how to read the room, please.

[Scott Wapner]

I don't want to just tell me this.

[Kevin Simpson]

I'm speaking specifically about Elon Musk. Whenever he's fighting with Donald Trump that's bad for the stock. So if you're a CEO, take care of your shareholders and focus on that. So this is a company that we love for robotics, self driving and all the other things that come along with the robotics. But for right now, if you're looking at it on today's news, it's not a buy by any means.

[Scott Wapner]

Brent, what do you think you've been the most high profile shareholder of Tesla on this program?

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah, I mean I think 250 to 260 to 360 is the range and so you buy it down there, let it run and sell calls. I think that I've said this before. You currently have with their current business model, deteriorating fund, deteriorating fundamentals. And so I think that you have to believe that you know robotics that they do some combination with X I and dojo on our Groq on their dojo with all of the GPUs that he's building. But I do think that investors are going to give him the benefit of the doubt. But from, from a trader once again, 260 to 350. You can drive a truck through that. And that's why the call premium is so high. And so I would assume Kevin, like myself, likes to sell calls on this when it gets above like 343 50. So I think that's going to be a peak until we start getting some new revenue stream clarity.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's, let's play this game. What is going to be the best performing mega cap name over the next six months? Microsoft's target today goes to 600 at D.A. davidson. Amazon's target goes to 250 at Truist Met. His target goes to 740 at Baird. Nvidia is closing in on $4 trillion in market cap. Joe Terranova, you're answering the question first. Nvidia over the next six months, Nvidia, it's up 16% year to date.

[Steve Weiss]

You don't like my answer?

[Scott Wapner]

I don't care what your answer is.

[Steve Weiss]

Okay, Nvidia.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Meta. Why?

[Joe Terranova]

Because I think while they're all overvalued based on this elastic based upon the investments, they're based upon pe. Trailing pe.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, I know you're talking about the pe, but I mean, what, what's the Nvidia is overvalued.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, I think, I think it's Met as overvalued. I believe it is, yeah. And I will fine with that. Alphabet's not. But there's a fundamental issue with Alphabet which is search and that, that I think is going to keep a living. The stock. But Meta is just making investment after investment in AI and I think that's going to continue to pay dividends.

[Scott Wapner]

I know, but these companies are all buying Nvidia sports product.

[Joe Terranova]

They are, but Met is also making their own chips. Amazon's making their own chips, Google's making their own chips. Eventually. And the idea of making their own chips is to dig into the dominant market share that Nvidia has. So eventually that will start to hit Nvidia. And they've already been producing chips that for their own uses and maybe they'll produce enough to sell and compete with Nvidia.

[Scott Wapner]

What's your answer?

[Kevin Simpson]

My answer is Amazon, but I don't think either of these two stocks are overvalued. I think you can buy Nvidia, I think you can buy Meta and certainly you can buy Amazon down here. This one's relatively underperformed its peer group. You've got us, which is incredible. You've got prime, you've got advertising. They're getting into Robotics, satellite. It's just a very diversified company, certainly led by us at the moment.

[Scott Wapner]

Bryn, what would your answer be?

[Bryn Talkington]

Oh, Nvidia. You know, Nvidia has been basing out that broke through that 145, 150. All roads lead to Nvidia. That is spending money. They're all spending money. They may be buying chips, making their own chips, but Nvidia is not making chips. They're making 70 pound to 1 ton tech stacks that people are using for data centers. And so I think this breakout you can get if the market continues to rally. Nvidia goes to 200. So I'll go with Joe with Nvidia $200 price target.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, we'll watch the $4 trillion level on market cap. Watching the banks too. Bank stocks are at a three year high. The biggest banks are raising their dividends. They're announcing buybacks. That's after the stress tests went by with flying colors. Goldman's dividend goes to four bucks from three. And every bank on this list is raised. I don't need to tell you the levels because they don't really mean anything to you if I do that. But what about the bank stocks here?

[Steve Weiss]

Maintaining the positioning that I have certainly in Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley is a name that I owned previously. In the last several years. Unfortunately I stepped away from it. I'm looking to get back into that once again. I think all of these money center banks are in the sweet spot. I think the regulatory reform is real, the clarity surrounding what taxes are going to be looking like. And I do think you're going to see an uptick in M and A. The one thing about the banks is I would watch the regional banks very closely because if you're looking for the indicator that what we saw yesterday is going to be something that's more than a 24 hour event. It's going to be represented in the regional banks first and foremost.

[Scott Wapner]

Citi raises targets on a bunch today. Citizens financial to 57 from 51. Huntington to 20 from 19, regions to 27 from 26. U.S. bancorp to 59 from 55. And you own all those?

[Steve Weiss]

I own. I own all of these and they have not worked in the last quarter. The momentum has been waning significantly and we need something to act as a catalyst. Maybe that will be a series of rate cuts in the fall. Maybe it's going to be regulatory relief. I'm not necessarily sure where the specific catalyst is going to come from, but I am telling you it will be a leading Indicator that the rotation is going to be something a little bit more durable over the course of the year.

[Scott Wapner]

Kevin, the other day you made the argument that in this kind of market you let your horses run. Those were your exact words. Now you're trimming Goldman Sachs which has been a thoroughbred. Okay, why are you doing that?

[Kevin Simpson]

Well, one thing I want to point out with Goldman Sachs on the plus side is that they raised their dividend by 33%. They took it from $3 to $4. That's very powerful. We have a 5% maximum position so my horses can run only so far. We have a rules based strategy. It got to be a 6.57% weighting. I love the name. We have a full position in Goldman, a full position in JP Morgan but in active management when you have a stock that's up like that and you run your process, you've got to follow it. So it's not different this time. We love the name. I've got some free cash I'll sell into strength any day of the week.

[Scott Wapner]

Weiss, Goldman's target to 775. At B of A it was 700, 715. At Evercore it was 630. There's a lot of momentum as Joe was starting to show off around around these stocks.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, I mean I think everybody knows where I stand. Goldman, I'm non plus by upgrade price targets because they just want to stay on board. I don't blame them but story is the same as it was when their target was 700. Look, this is all happening without the capital markets really opening up, particularly on the public side and with rates being where they are limiting M and A activity. So think of the momentum in fundamentals. Forget about stock price when that kicks in with all of them and you can look at any of the large bank charts they pretty much all look the same. The exception of the spike in Citi that we've recently seen but so I don't think you have to be an expert bank analyst to just pick one in this sector sector and I continue to have Goldman as my preferred play.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, other winners I want to talk about Robin Hood. Brin hits a new all time high yet again. Mizuho puts it on its top picks list. 99 bucks is the price target so they're going to need to raise that obviously because the stock has hit 100 bucks today.

[Bryn Talkington]

Right. I think it's up 20% in two days. Right. Vlad was in can talking about tokenizing SpaceX and I think OpenAI opening up crypto in Europe. And so I do agree with this note. The company has caught the zeitgeist of these, of finance. And so the stock, the chart looks parabolic, but it is, it is what it is. Like a Palantir at 130. It's bizarre that it's there, but this is where we are. And so I think this company continues to, you know, eat all of the custodians lunch as their innovation. It's an exciting company and so I think it's, you know, continues to go higher regardless of where the valuation is stretched or not stretched.

[Kevin Simpson]

Just real quick, Scott, you know, we love this name. Also, Juniper is going to be out of the S&P 500 because of the Hewlett Packard acquisition and there's a high probability that Robinhood may get into the S&P 500 and that could happen in the next couple of days. So I think that's another catalyst for the movement.

[Scott Wapner]

Move today Netflix Target to 1525 from 1380 Canaccord why she want to take on that?

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, so they've got, they're talking about more leverage to pull, which are more music, reality, live reality shows. It just continues to be, particularly if you get into a really tough economy, it's going to be them. And I also include Disney now in that. In that vertical where, you know, they're the two, they're the two streaming companies that will do quite well and survive if you want the purest play, of course, that's Netflix.

[Scott Wapner]

UNH is under pressure. A lot of the managed care names are because Centene pulled their guidance. What about this name? Yeah, so said you keep trying on this. Unh.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah, UNH is actually worked since I went back in. Was working better yesterday than today. But look, these are the issues and the issues aren't over. And the reason I own you and A. And by the way, it's the same issue, which is too much usage from. From their membership and not enough members signing up for the plans. So they've got revenues coming down and costs going up, which is its own form of stagnation. However, stagflation. But what I would say is that the thought here is that Steve Hemsley, who came back as CEO but stayed as chairman, is going to do kitchen sink quarter, clear it all out and then put in, as he did when he was CEO, he didn't need kitchen sink quarters and then climb on from there. But there's still uncertainties. You're still working through new government regulations that have required recoding, which has cost them and then you don't know where. It looks like. Medicare Advantage is okay, but Medicaid is an issue for everybody. Health care. So it's still a treacherous sector to invest in. Whether you're a drug company, this device company, whatever, it's better. Hands off.

[Scott Wapner]

A couple of quick moves before we take a break. You sold Spotify covered calls. You sold helmet covered calls.

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah. Just real quick. These both expire next Friday. So they were 11 day options. We did these on Monday. There was tremendous premium heading into the turn of the month, second half of the year. And Bryn, you would love these options. I wish we had more time, but basically we brought in $5 for helmet, $18 for Spotify. We could buy both of those back for a couple bucks and lock in those profits today if we wanted to.

[Scott Wapner]

You own both of these, right?

[Steve Weiss]

Everyone has a different strategy. I respect what Kevin's doing here, but the momentum strategy. We let the horses run and there is no end to our track.

[Kevin Simpson]

Comet was down 4% yesterday and Spotify was down 6%.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay.

[Steve Weiss]

Gonna let it run.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. We'll do our calls of the day. Next we'll debate Bullish takes on a group of committee stocks. We're back after this.

[Bryn Talkington]

Close your eyes, exhale. Feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry.

[Christina Parts]

That I wouldn't get my new contacts.

[Bryn Talkington]

In time for this class.

[Christina Parts]

I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts.

[Bryn Talkington]

Oh my gosh, they're so fast. And breathe.

[Edward Jones]

Oh, sorry.

[Christina Parts]

I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order.

[Bryn Talkington]

Oh, sorry.

[Christina Parts]

Namaste.

[Edward Jones]

Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order.

[Bryn Talkington]

1-800-Contacts.

[Kevin Simpson]

Which American states are driving business surviving and thriving?

[Joe Terranova]

America's top states for business is back.

[Kevin Simpson]

Which state will take the honors this year? The list revealed July 10 and streaming on CNBC.

[Scott Wapner]

Calls of the day. We leave with Walmart. Mizuho says top pick. It's on the list. 115 is the price target. Nice little increase from there. A decade of investment spend has finally reached a tipping point in our view where delivery convenience are on par with anyone in consumer. Those are big words. Joe T. You own that name.

[Steve Weiss]

Where's the mention about tariff? Scott, is there anywhere in that report report a word tariff? Because that's the problem. That's the reason why since February this stock has been on the decline. Stock makes an all time high in February. Subsequent to that earnings come out. We go down We've heard the news surrounding the president and Wal Mart CEO going back and forth with tariffs. But they have a challenge in tariffs. They have a challenge because they don't want to pass through the cost to you and I. They want to eat the cost and that is going to eat into margin. So until we get the clarity related to tariffs, the stock is going to continue to move sideways. We own it. We own it. The stock's up 9% has been phenomenal. The stock has been phenomenal over the last 18 months, but it has stalled out in February. And it's specifically because of tariffs. Look at a chart of Costco. They're in the same situation right now. You could talk about others in the retail space. The tariff challenge is real for these companies. And most of these companies in particular the hyperscalers, they don't want to pass through the cost to the consumer. They want to be able to eat it. Well, that's a problem because it is going to eat up that market.

[Joe Terranova]

Befitting my cheery depositions. Disposition again, disposition befitting that. Here's what's good that's going on and you're not going to hear it. We saw part of that news in Microsoft today and I'm equating it to Wal Mart for the following reason. The headcount reductions, I believe, are because of AI, because they're getting more productivity out of AI. Now, when you go to Wal Mart, they spoke about dark stores. We're going to see dark stores proliferate. We're going to see it with all retailers. What that means is that you will not need any people net the technology exists. Take a look at a private company, Nimble Robotics, where it's fully automated. So you'll have these smaller footprints where you basically call up, make an order. Or better yet, you do it on your phone. And that is ready for you as you drive through. That cuts down on theft, which is big for some of these companies. It affects 25% of their profits. So you'll get away. You'll reduce theft, you reduce labor costs and that stuff. The upside to Wal Mart and pick the others, Walgreens just go down Greece.

[Steve Weiss]

But that's the technological investment that they've made over the last several years. One of the reasons why we initiated the position in it, I think the question was one, what was it? 115 is your price target 115. Okay. How does it get to 115? You have to get away from that 100 is that.

[Scott Wapner]

That's not that big of a Move from here.

[Steve Weiss]

It was at 105 in February and it's been. Look at what has happened to the stock. It's an issue tariffs to get said.

[Joe Terranova]

They would raise prices.

[Steve Weiss]

Yet to you want to get to 115. Let's get some clarity and resolution on the margin challenge they have related to tariffs. We own the stock. I love the stock. Technology is phenomenal.

[Joe Terranova]

Everything you're citing me question though. Is there any company that is better positioned to extract cost concessions from their suppliers than Wal Mart?

[Scott Wapner]

Amazon.

[Joe Terranova]

Better positioned?

[Steve Weiss]

Yes.

[Joe Terranova]

Well, I don't think so because I think they're equally well positioned. I don't think you have picked one or the other.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's go to Ross stores. I started to talk about that and I just want to get that out. Upgraded today to buy from hold 150 to 135. You own that name too.

[Steve Weiss]

And again you can continue to mention tariffs for all of these retail names but in particular for Ross store. The challenge that they have in front of them and what potentially could be a catalyst. So Stephanie said yesterday she thinks that there is a potential building recovery in home products. Well, 25% of the sales for this company are related to home goods. So if in fact you begin to see that that is something that reignites the momentum which was present for this company. But it's kind of similar to Walmart moving sideways.

[Kevin Simpson]

Why waste time with raw stores when you can go to home goods? TJ Maxx does not have a tariff issue. This is an off rack retailer that is very customer friendly.

[Scott Wapner]

Home goods.

[Kevin Simpson]

Yeah, that was my cool. Clever.

[Scott Wapner]

Just make sure everybody knows that TJ.

[Steve Weiss]

Maxx owns home goods and more Max as well.

[Scott Wapner]

And that's your. That's your best play I think within.

[Kevin Simpson]

The space we own Home Depot and T.J. maxx. I love T.J. maxx. The dividend, the dividend growth, the share buybacks. If you go to this store, you can't find a parking spot. You won't want to wait in line. And this is not a tariff issue. Buy everything here domestically.

[Scott Wapner]

Ion Cuban, overweight at Canter Fitzgerald. They initiate coverage there. 45 bucks is a price target. This stock went up huge when you first were talking about it. Then I think you sold some if not all. I can't remember. You bring us up to date and our viewers but 45 they say it's going back to. What's the story here?

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah, well I bought it at 33 and then shortly after Barron's actually had an article about it which I think is why the Stock ran up and so I sold half the position. Listen, I like owning some high growth, you know, longer term names. I will say this, the company is about $11 billion market cap the stock, their revenues for the August quarter should be at 50% but those revenues will come in at 60, 17 million. So these are early days and I think with the quantum computing, what they're looking to do and what this, they're the biggest in the space but they've been able to to do with their stocks and so publicly traded is they have been gobbling up, I would say these small companies but really like a group of really super smart scientists with light sync. They did one in New Mexico that works with DARPA and top secret. And so I think as, as computing continues, they are the intersection of cybersecurity, they are at the intersection of super fast computing. And they also have quantum computers, like literal quantum computers. So I think it's early days. The stock could be at 20 and I wouldn't be surprised or 60. So I continue will build a position, trade around it. But I just think there's so few quantum pure play quantum stocks and I do believe this is the best one out there. I wanted to have an initial position to have in the portfolio.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, thank you. The headlines now with Christina Parts and Christina.

[Bryn Talkington]

Hi, Scott.

[Haley Hunter]

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the elimination of Hamas in his first public remarks after President Trump announced a proposal for a 60 day cease fire in Gaza. Hamas says it's studying the proposal which Israel agreed to on Tuesday. All of this comes just days ahead of Netanyahu's planned visit to meet with President Trump on this upcoming Monday. The Dalai Lama said the ancient Tibetan Tibetan Buddhist institute that he leads will continue on after his death. The exiled spiritual leader today added only the organization that he founded can recognize the future reincarnation. At one point, he had hinted that he might forego established succession practices in a bid to throw off the Chinese government and avoid a leadership vacuum. And the third and final season of Squid Games is breaking Netflix records. In its first first three days, the hit Korean series has racked up more than 60 million views, a new high for the streaming service with more than 368 million hours viewed. While this is the final season, director David Fincher has been rumored, just a rumor so far, to be developing an English language remake for Netflix.

[Bryn Talkington]

Scott, are you a fan?

[Scott Wapner]

Alright, sure, yeah. The fan biz. Big time fans. Thank you. We'll see you later. Christina Parts now with us. Straight ahead. Goldman Sachs is out with A new list of stocks they say maybe you should sell. I have some more calls that I didn't get to that I do want to. And we'll do all that straight ahead. All right, we have some more calls that I want to get to. Jabil was resumed at Stifel by 245. Kevin Simpson is the price target. What do you think? Record high today for that name.

[Kevin Simpson]

Honestly, Scott, I think this target's too low. Their pivot into AI has been unbelievable. Believable. They spent about $500 million to get involved in this space. They've made 33% revenue growth after the past quarter. I don't have a covered call on it. I'm letting this horse run. Think it's moving higher.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, let's see if Joe's with us. S and P Global, the target to 592Oppenheimer. You own that stock?

[Steve Weiss]

I do. I am here, my friend.

[Scott Wapner]

All right.

[Steve Weiss]

Engagement, let's go. Engagement.

[Scott Wapner]

That's the word. Word of the day. Engagement. Financial engagement. Let's go.

[Steve Weiss]

Financial services industry. Think about it. The financial services industry, if there's one thing that's going to happen in the second half of the year, whether you're bullish or bearish, it's engagement. Because we had such a volatile first half of the year and there proved to be tremendous opportunity in markets, people will be engaged. Pull up a chart of Schwab. Could we do that? Let's see where Schwab is. I think it's at an all time high today. Interactive Brokers, near an all time high today. Same case for S and P Global. This has been on a tear as well. These stocks, asset managers are going to perform well in the second half of the year because they have the engagement. Robinhood, Coinbase, they're all participating.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, Cintas, you have that. To257 is the new target at Goldman Sachs. You like that?

[Steve Weiss]

Thank you for reminding me of the. That it needs. Honestly, it needs further corrective behavior because of the momentum unwind. We're seeing that today.

[Scott Wapner]

Sarcastically. No, reminding me of that.

[Steve Weiss]

It's down three and a half percent. Well, I know you like the needle. Me, it's down three and a half percent. I think that's the biggest move lower that it's had in the last two and a half months. Yeah, it's part of the momentum unwind. It's not like the reported earnings last night and that's the reason that it's falling. It's because the strategy is unwinding. And see where it goes it could go down further, which obviously is going to annoy me and irritate me, similar to what you're doing right now.

[Joe Terranova]

I vote for it to go down further. By the way, you're a shareholder.

[Steve Weiss]

You're a shareholder of Jyoti. Why would you want other words?

[Joe Terranova]

See you annoyed and irritated.

[Scott Wapner]

Caterpillar target to 445 at Baird Weiss.

[Joe Terranova]

Look, you know, it's been working out well, I think continues to, you know, the tax bill is it's going to drive more capital spending. You have to get through the uncertainty of tariffs. But if you're willing to get through that, and I think we'll get through it at some point, they're right in the sweet spot. Plus, the onshoring, which has been an amazing trend even before Trump will continue. So I like it. And again, my portfolio is so biased to the mag 7 and to big Cap Tech that this is a nice balance.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, let's speaking of balance, let's lift Joe back up.

[Joe Terranova]

Sure.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's have Happy Joe. Okay. Royal Caribbean. So the Stock High today, winner 360, was 290. Remarkable outperform. See what I did?

[Steve Weiss]

Remarkable turnout, by the way. Back to engagement financial Services. I left one Name out, State Street 52 week high.

[Joe Terranova]

Today.

[Steve Weiss]

They're participating as well. Royal Caribbean has been a balance sheet turnaround.

[Joe Terranova]

Yeah.

[Steve Weiss]

The balance sheet for you. This company has remarkably coming out of where they were in the pandemic. They've navigated. They've changed the course and direction in the open seas. I see what you did. See what I did there. Right. And they've been rewarded in the corporate debt market. They're being rewarded in the equity market. And there's also very strong engagement from travelers from Asia.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, thank you very much as well done.

[Steve Weiss]

Appreciate it.

[Scott Wapner]

Mike Santoli is next with his midday work.

[Joe Terranova]

All right.

[Scott Wapner]

We're back on the halftime report. Our friends at Golf Channel following the PGA Tour stop this week, it's the John Deere Classic. Golf Channel rock reporter Haley Hunter joins us on site in Illinois with what to expect in this final run up, Haley, to the Open Championship, which is not all that far away.

[Christina Parts]

That's right. Thanks so much, Scott. Well, one of the best parts about this tournament every year is all of the birdies that we're likely anticipating to see because there's always so many low rounds out here. In fact, last year, the John Deere Classic saw more birdies 2055 than any other event on the PGA Tour. So players, when they come out here to TPC Deer Run. They know they're going to have to produce some low rounds out here. And that's what we've seen in 12 of the last 15 years now, where the final winning total was at least 20 under par, including of course, the defending champion and Davis Thompson, who set the new horse scoring record at 28 under here last year. And with that, a big reason why he was able to find so much success out here was because of his wedges from about 150 yards and in. That's likely about half of the approach shots that we're going to see players have this horse week. Putting will also be a big part of having success out here this week. And we take a look at some of the best wedge players on tour right now. From that 50 to 125 yard range, you'll see players such as Jackson Suber, who is ranked second right now from that distance. He's coming off a nice tied for six finish last week at the Rocket Classic in Detroit, as well as players like Paul Peterson, who ranks third, Doug Gim, Max McGreevey and Emiliano Grillo. Meanwhile, some of the best putters out here this week week are names such as Sam Ryder, Brandt Snedeker, Nico echeveria and Denny McCarthy, who ranks ninth on tour in strokes gained putting right now. And while Denny is certainly hoping that that putter can play in his favor out here this week as one of the better players in the field, he's also hoping that the place he's staying at just a few miles down the road from here can possibly help him out as well. The last three straight years now in Airbnb has produced the winner out here. And so with him finishing top seven his last three straight years here and having been runner up a couple of times on the PGA Tour, he's hoping that Airbnb will help him get that first PGA Tour win. Scott.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Haley, thank you. Haley Hunter at the John Deere. Be sure to follow Golf Channel's coverage of that tournament. It begins tomorrow, round one, 4pm Eastern time. Up next, Santoli with his midday work. Mike sent it. Toll is with us, our senior markets. Oh, man, we're having a day. Yeah, we're having a day. What kind of day are you having?

[Mike Santoli]

I mean, look, quiet strength in the market, I think from the, from the Open, which, you know, is probably the biggest pattern up a third of a percent, extending a little bit. I think it's interesting the market decided not to do much in terms of taking the weak ADP employment number to heart, at least in terms of pricing and big implications for tomorrow. You do have some steepening of the yield curve. Again, short term yields are pretty suppressed. And then this rotation, you know, it's still there. It's not as stark as it was yesterday, but you have the Russell up almost 1% and that seems to be the market, of course, just repositioning because, you know, crowded into neglected trades and just a new quarter and having a reload of strategies. But also it's sort of what you would expect to see if the market thought you were getting either an uptick in the, in the economy or, and, or a rate cut. And I think that's kind of where we are in terms of the odds.

[Scott Wapner]

Maybe more and then, or I mean, that seems to be where I do think it's you. Right.

[Mike Santoli]

I think you have to pile up the positives to really justify more upside from here. And that probably includes July 9th not being some kind of a rug pull on the tariff deals and everything else.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, I'll see you in a little bit. Mike Sanchelle will be back with us on closing bell. We'll do finals next. We'll see at 3 o' clock today on closing bell with Dan Greenhouse low Tony Michael Bapas, Stephanie Link and Brian Levitt. I hope you'll join me. Bryn, what's your final trade?

[Bryn Talkington]

Freeport FC RCX. It's been basing out had resistance at 43 to 45 since 2021. Looks like it's breaking above that.

[Scott Wapner]

Thank you very much.

[Steve Weiss]

Kevin Simpson, Honeywell.

[Kevin Simpson]

The breakup value will unlock shareholder value.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, thank you.

[Steve Weiss]

Steve Weiss, Caterpillar.

[Joe Terranova]

Their engagement with their customers is going to increase sales.

[Steve Weiss]

All right, Joe T. Amgen series of higher lows breaking out above the 200 day moving average.

[Scott Wapner]

Nice move there. I'll see in a couple hours. The exchange begins right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Edward Jones]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the halftime Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates andor subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy. And it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com halftime reportdisclaimer what is daddication?

[Dariona]

The thing that drives me every day as a dad is Dariona. We call him DAE Date for short. Every day he's hungry for something, whether it's attention, affection, knowledge. And there's this huge responsibility in making sure that when he's no longer under my wing that he's a good person. I want him to be able to sit back one day and go, we worked together. We did a good job.

[Steve Weiss]

That's dadication. Find out [e-mail] brought to you by the U.S. department of Health and Human Services and the Ad Council.