Digging in on Market Volatility… And SpaceX Hits New All-time Low 7/27/26

Summary

Podcast Summary: CNBC’s "Fast Money" – Digging in on Market Volatility… And SpaceX Hits New All-time Low (July 27, 2026)

Main Theme

This episode dives deep into the current surge in market volatility, highlighting sector rotations, the story behind big moves in tech and financials, an update on software’s rebound, the rough patch for gold miners, and a frontline look at luxury real estate trends with guest Ryan Serhant. Key focus areas include Apple’s all-time high ahead of earnings, rising risk aversion among investors, regulatory and competitive challenges for tech and semiconductors, and the resilience of both industrials and luxury real estate in a shifting economic landscape.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Apple’s Record Run and Market Positioning (01:02–08:03)

• Apple surges to a new record high, up 16% in July, approaching a $5 trillion market cap with anticipation for Thursday's earnings.
  • Melissa Lee: “The iPhone maker closing just shy of that vaunted $5 trillion market cap... passing Nvidia’s valuation.” (01:36)
• Dan Nathan highlights Apple's intentional delay entering AI compared to peers, suggesting their approach—waiting and integrating later—may have ultimately benefited shareholders.
  • “They sort of let other people do the dirty work and then figure it out on the back end—and they were being punished for it… that is now completely flipped.” (06:34)
• Debate around Apple as a “safe port in the storm” amid sector rotations (software vs. semis) and high valuation concerns.
• Carter Worth calls it “steady she goes... stay long, be long,” while Tim Seymour questions whether loyalty is warranted given Apple’s late AI pivot and high multiple.
• The panel acknowledges rising expectations for iPhone 18 (and in China), but remains cautious due to valuation and innovation lag.

Notable Quote:

“Maybe incompetence is a good thing. I mean, Apple didn’t spend, didn’t get into that [AI] race. And here’s where it is now.” — Melissa Lee (06:13) referencing Dan Niles

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2. Semis & Memory Stocks: Pullbacks and China Fears (08:03–13:29)

• Major pullback in memory/chip stocks (e.g., Sandisk, Micron), some down 40–50% from recent highs, after a period of mania driven by AI exuberance.
• Chinese competition (e.g., CXMT IPO) and the U.S.–China tech rivalry flagged as key long-term headwinds.
• Carter Worth warns there’s “still a ways to go” for many semiconductor stocks, advising restraint: “Stay away—just resist the temptation to step in.” (11:21)
• Skepticism about the breadth and longevity of the AI-driven stock rally in older semiconductor names.
• Dan Nathan on recent Intel earnings: “If Intel is not rallying on a quarter, which was by their standards... historical, then you have to wonder how much is left in the tank.” (13:07)

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3. Financials & Credit Market Underpinnings (13:29–16:50)

• Financials (XLF) reach all-time highs; banks & insurers outperform.
• Debate centers on whether big banks like JPMorgan are expensive—panel agrees they’re pricier than before, with Citi lagging.
• Tim Seymour and Guy Adami discuss systemic risks tied to “long duration issuance by hyperscalers” (big tech borrowing heavily for capex).
  • “If the stocks can’t perform well, there’s no reason that the credit should perform well... [credit trouble] is going to be like a Q1, Q2 thing in 2027.” — Tim Seymour (15:05)
• Underlying concern about a potential “credit unwinding” ahead, which could hit financials.

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4. Market Volatility & Risk Appetite (Guest: Mandy Hsu, CBOE) (16:50–21:35)

• Mandy Hsu gives an expert rundown on shifting risk appetites:
  • Forward volatility is notably elevated—implied vol > realized vol for the first time in a while.
  • Uptick in hedging via S&P puts; single-stock volatility much higher than the index.
  • Retail investors more bullish (via options) on hyperscalers, less so on chip stocks.
  • Melissa Lee asks if this signals broad bearishness; Hsu responds it’s “more caution in the forward outlook, not outright bearishness.” (17:05)
  • Growing investor interest in when idiosyncratic risk might become a broader systemic concern.
  • Consensus: Markets are on edge, pricing for elevated risks in the near future.

Notable Quote:

“We’re seeing very elevated volatility at the single stock level... that spread between single stock volatility versus the index at a record high.” — Mandy Hsu (17:05)

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5. Software Rebound: Rotation from Semis (23:30–26:12)

• Software sector (IGV) posts best day in a month; ServiceNow leads the group.
• Dan Nathan calls today’s action a “Pavlovian response”—selling semis, buying software—repeatedly played out in recent weeks.
• Carter Worth finds most software charts “dull,” suggesting any outperformance is just relative to ongoing semi weakness.
  • “Does it really bounce here and do something?... There’s just nothing here that’s exciting to my eye.” (24:18)
• Guy Adami backs Microsoft for its “de-risked” profile, favoring its combined enterprise/consumer reach.
• Sharp warning on high-multiple names like Palantir.

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6. Gold Miners’ Slide – A Contrarian Opportunity? (29:17–30:45)

• GDX Gold Miners ETF off 30%+ from peak, battered along with falling gold prices.
• Guy Adami turns bullish, believing “this downtrend... is about to be broken to the upside. I believe in gold.” (29:33)
• Other panelists believe now could be the moment for a defensive position as credit risks mount and Fed policy may pivot towards easing.
• Tim Seymour: “Gold is setting you up to be very, very defensive in a world where the Fed is not worried about inflation, they’re worried about the opposite.” (30:27)
• Cautious optimism for buying miners as a hedge.

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7. Luxury Real Estate Trends with Ryan Serhant (32:28–38:28)

• Ryan Serhant, top luxury broker, details the resilience of ultra-high-end housing markets in Manhattan, the Hamptons, and beyond.
  • Four types of buyers: cash, finance-backed, owners locked in at low rates, and builders.
  • “There is no longer a housing market in the United States... There are four Americas.” (33:35)
• Cash buyers are increasingly separated from the rest of the market; builders must offload inventory with incentives.
• The North Fork of Long Island and regions in the Carolinas cited as rising hotspots; major new wave of Americans buying real estate in Europe for political and value reasons.
• On asset resilience: Trophy assets (waterfront, scarce properties) hold up best in downturns; focus on job growth areas like Bluffton, SC, and Savannah, GA, for smart investing.

Notable Quotes:

“People are location agnostic now—wherever they can get to easily…We also have Americans buying internationally now in the largest wave that I’ve seen.” — Ryan Serhant (35:39)

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8. Debut of Single Stock Futures at CME (39:17–41:32)

• CME launches single-stock futures for 55 top US companies, providing an alternative to options (no decay, less complexity, trades nearly 24 hours).
• Tim Seymour and Guy Adami see opportunity, calling the new contracts “much simpler... a convenient factor as well.” (39:20)
• Warn about proliferation of new products but recognize strong demand for innovative hedging/trading tools in the current high-volatility environment.

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9. Industrials: Quiet Outperformance (42:05–45:23)

• Industrials have “almost doubled the S&P performance so far this year.”
  • Carter Worth sees continued upside despite mixed performance over longer timeframes: “Very constructive setup. Green arrow one more time.” (43:12)
• Industrials (Caterpillar, GE, rails) are benefiting from the AI buildout but also have standalone strength.
• Tim Seymour and Guy Adami highlight credit stresses for tech hyperscalers as a risk, but not a disqualifier for industrials overall.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Apple’s AI approach:
  Melissa Lee: “Maybe incompetence is a good thing.” (06:13)
  Dan Nathan: “They sort of let other people do the dirty work and then figure it out on the back end.” (06:34)

• Market Mania in Chips/Semis:
  Tim Seymour: “We’re seeing manias. It’s like a rolling mania…The rolling mania is the thing that should really have people’s antennas up.” (08:26)

• Volatility Data:
  Mandy Hsu: “Single stock average volatility trading close to 50, and that spread…at a record high.” (17:05)

• On Real Estate Segments:
  Ryan Serhant: “There is no longer a housing market in the United States… There are four Americas.” (33:35)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Apple’s Elevation & AI Debate: 01:02–08:03
• Semis Pullback, China Fears: 08:03–13:29
• Financials/Credit Markets: 13:29–16:50
• Market Volatility, Risk (Mandy Hsu): 16:50–21:35
• Software’s Comeback: 23:30–26:12
• Gold Miners’ Outlook: 29:17–30:45
• Luxury Real Estate (Ryan Serhant): 32:28–38:28
• Single Stock Futures Launch: 39:17–41:32
• Industrials’ Outperformance: 42:05–45:23

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Conclusion

This episode provides a sweeping yet granular look at the forces moving US markets in late July 2026:

• Tech and finance have become battlegrounds for capital, innovation, and credit risk;
• Retail and institutional investors alike are hedging for higher volatility;
• Defensive sectors (gold, industrials) and niche real assets (luxury homes) attract increased attention;
• Financial innovation (single-stock futures) is on the rise to match investor complexity.

The tone is both analytical and cautionary—this market is brimming with opportunity, but also fraught with traps for the unwary, as high valuations, shifting risk moods, and macro headwinds drive both fear and greed.

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For further detail or full segments, view the original CNBC Fast Money episode.

Transcript

[Mazda Narrator]

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[Melissa Lee]

Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Three to trade. A handful of stock and sector moves catching your eyes today. What the action tells us about the markets and where stocks are going from here. Plus a new low For Space X ServiceNow leads a software surge digging in on gold miners rough run and the state of real estate. Luxury broker Ryan Sarant is on set to break down the high end property markets in Manhattan and beyond. What the ultra rich are buying and the trickle effects on the housing trade. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. And we start off with those three big moves that caught our eye today. From big tech to banks and more. First up, Apple jumping over a percent today, closing at a record high. It is now up more than 16% in July on pace for its best month in four years. The iPhone maker closing just shy of that vaunted $5 trillion market cap. Passing Nvidia's valuation for the first time since May of last year. All this as we get ready for Apple earnings on Thursday. I don't know how does it set up ahead of the results? High bar Hunk High Bar.

[Dan Nathan]

First of all, welcome back. Tim on vacation Italy, good to see you.

[Guy Adami]

You look resty good. Bennett through the Benny guy.

[Dan Nathan]

That's Italian by the way.

[Guy Adami]

But which, come on, say the same thing about Apple.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean it has been bent, it's been extraordinarily good. And if you listen to Tim, for the last couple of years you've been on, on the back of it, I'll say this. I mean I think them not willing to spend on AI 7, 8, maybe almost a year or so ago suggested, you know, the market punished them first. Now that people realize that, wait a second, maybe they were right to sort of lay in the weeds and the stock is trading in kind. I'll say this as well, and I've said this for a while, you can't get your arms around a valuation but that's never really been the story here.

[Melissa Lee]

Two analysts, price target raises today from Goldman Sachs as well as Baird. I think the Baird note was interesting saying this is a port in the storm, free cash flow is going higher. Isn't that what we want here?

[Guy Adami]

Well it's been a port in the storm for a long time and if you think that the deep sea moment was an Apple moment and we've now had a couple just call them China moments where the low cost model, the open source model has reinforced why you buy Apple. I also think it is a market of rotation. We've seen rotation. It's almost been a, you know a some of the parts trade between software, semiconductor, semiconductors and ultimately where I think you've had that trade that hasn't worked and we look at the hyperscalers, we know they haven't worked. Is Apple go out and buy it with two hands? No, I mean as someone that's long Apple and has felt it was a safe port, I think that's not a new concept. I'm not sure that's a reason to upgrade it and it almost 40 times forward. I do think that there are a lot of people that are holding out for the 18 and I think that this release will be important even though we know that it's nothing special. I think serving up AI via an Apple product is part of the story and I think that's, that's good news. I think this, this market is very concerned about capex this week and I think it's a lose lose on capex. You don't want to see a ton more capex and I think if you pull back on capex in Metta and Amazon especially people are going to be very concerned about that trade.

[Carter Worth]

It's all a catch up trade. Right. Because Apple's relative performance peaked three and a half years ago. So maybe long overdue as charts go. It's just steady she goes, it's not extended and it's a, I Would say a stay long, be long circumstance.

[Melissa Lee]

Oh, interesting.

[Ryan Serhant]

Yeah.

[Tim Seymour]

Master think is an interesting circumstance. If you go back what a month ago or so the stock traded down to 272. The company said they're going to raise their iPhone prices in the fall and this is to Tim's point going to be a phone that is not particularly interesting relative to what the 20 year phone is going to be in the out year. You know there's reporting that they're finally going to have a foldable phone that's five years after Samsung had. So you know the fact that the stocks trade an all time high after trading as low as 272 because of component pricing. I don't think it really matters that Micron and a bunch of these semis have sold off meaning as it relates to what the input costs are for Apple they're still there. You know I think one of the reasons why we've had that weakness and we're going to talk about it is because of the pull forward and excitement about those names and the pricing power and the backlog that they have. But related to Apple, I mean this is a company that really doesn't have an integrated AI, you know, product and yes, they partnered with well yet we've been waiting for that for three years. And you know, when you think about OpenAI I'm not a fan of open, I'm not a fan of chatbots but they got to a billion users in three years. You know, think about that, think about, you know, Apple's a company that has an installed base of two and a half billion and yes, they might have done it on the back of iPhones and that sort of thing. Gemini is just hit a billion users so maybe that's a great place for them to be. I really think if they're focused on security, they're focused on integration, they might not deliver on that in a year where phones are going to be expensive and they're going to be, you know, just kind of all four also ran that sort of thing. So I just don't know why people are buying it here and they're selling off a whole host of other things, you know, even the hyperscalers in a way. I mean they might have learned a lesson by what happened last week with Google. Maybe they don't use the word significantly as it relates to capex next year but Apple actually really confounds me here

[Melissa Lee]

in terms of being late to the game with. I mean isn't that part of.

[Guy Adami]

It's why you're Buying it.

[Melissa Lee]

That's why you're buying it, because they have been late to the game. Dan Niles had an interesting quote today. You know, maybe incompetence is a good thing. I mean Apple didn't spend it, didn't get into that race. And here's where it is now. And Siri is going to come out. It's now got an offering in China which will hit precisely with the 18 cycle. You know, so in theory that's a great headline.

[Dan Nathan]

Incompetence. I don't think it was incompetence. I mean they've historically sort of laid in the weeds, let other people sort of do the dirty work and then they sort of figure it out on the back end and they were being punished for it for a period of time. If you go back and look, you know, we were talking about the fact that Apple was behind the curve in the race and that is completely flipped now. The stock as an all time high. So I think good for them, bad for them. In terms of the stock though, as Tim mentioned, you know, the valuation is a concern now if you say it doesn't matter, their consumer services business is becoming more larger percentage of overall revenue. They deserve that premium multiple. Okay, I can buy that, but it is expensive.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, I just think Apple is not going to get away from me on the upside. So I've actually been selling upside calls to year end around 400. I mean a 15% move between now and. And you're on a year end on Apple I would be thrilled with and I think again the benefit of some of this rotation, I'll take it. I just think the more we focus on China being low cost, open source, China's open for business. Apple's cut a deal in China. Apple's working with Baba. You know, this is a company that, that ultimately I think the world has to come to them. I think they're the one with the platform. I think they're once with the installed base and, and it never really. I think you said it well. Apple has really hasn't innovated probably since that first little thing you had at Georgetown, that little pop up. Do you even have one of those?

[Dan Nathan]

Clearly he's playing the age game here. The reality is we're in college at the same time. So it's not like I'm 15 years older than you are. That's cool.

[Guy Adami]

Well done.

[Dan Nathan]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, let's get to the memory trade which did take a hit today. Sandisk leading the way lower down double digits for a second day. In a row it's been nearly cut in half from its all time high. Still up 400% this year. A lot of reasons behind this. You had 6:70 going public in Shanghai today. Well received issue. So there's a fear of the Chinese memory makers coming in. Well, what do you make of this trade?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, I think the fact that Apple is lobbying the administration to be able to buy DRAM from this company that is obviously now a national champion as it relates to the Chinese and the way they think of their tech. You know, they probably love to be able to sell to Apple. I don't think the Chinese think about the sort of competition that we do over here and I think they're focused on pushing out the models that they have and focusing on the component suppliers and you know, a whole host of the other things that kind of make the low cost AI trade this competitive as they are with our companies. They're spending trillions of dollars. So you know, to me I think up nearly 500% on the opening day. We've seen some crazy moves in South Korea. It seems like this sort of mania has gone all over the place. And you know, we talked about this a little bit, this DRAM ETF launch I want to say in April and it was a way to get exposure to like SK Hynix and Samsung, that trade here. Now you know, Samsung wants to come over here too given the success or supposed success of SK Hynix. So we're seeing manias. It's like a rolling mania. And the fact that ours have pulled back, I mean I don't think it's surprising to anybody on this desk that these stocks have sold off 30, 40, 50%. I think it's a surprise to me very clearly that they went up as much as they did. The stocks doubled, think about it doubled in two months. So of course it was going to come back at some point. But the rolling mania is the thing that should really have people's antennas up.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Should we be concerned though? CXMT and others like, I mean there is a pipeline of Chinese semiconductor companies that are waiting to compete with a lot of the US players and granted their export control, etc. But they can sell to other places in the world. Not, they don't have to sell to the United States in order to make a dent in terms of pricing.

[Guy Adami]

No, I think Europe is absolutely a welcome buyer, a price sensitive buyer. And it's other parts of, if we're calling this kind of the picks and shovels and the infrastructure side of the Trade again, there's, there's, you know ASML got knocked down today on the fact that you know, Merchant Lithography is a states backed company in China and they're, they're hitting demand. And so at some point this really was well how long is the cycle? How long before more capacity comes online? It's not really even about the demand story. Although again this trade, it all started when we were talking about Nvidia and all these circular trades. I think it's all dependent on obligations from one to another that are not really being counted by investors and are still hanging out there.

[Dan Nathan]

It's amazing. I mean car can look at a chart but June 22 you had this island reversal in Micron at its all time high. Pretty textbook. And it is traded exactly the way it should have traded. Traded in 805 which was the prior all time high going back to May of this year. Bounce. And when I say bounce went from eight hundred five to a thousand. Now we're backing and filling. I mean that's your line in the sand. But I think there's more downside to these names and competition was something that people have told us they're not going to be here for three to five years. I think the unfortunate reality is competition is coming a lot faster than that.

[Carter Worth]

I suppose I would put in the context of excess, obviously the move over the past two, three, five years, however one wants to characterize is excessive. And so has the excess been expunged. Some of these stocks again down 40, 50%. But if you just use sort of classic charting moving averages, there's still a ways to go both for the SOX index and many of these names just to get down to their respective 150 moving averages. So stay away. Just resist the temptation to step in

[Melissa Lee]

to buy for what is a lot more. I mean like let's, let's take the stocks like how much would it have

[Carter Worth]

to go down about 13% to get to the 150 day sand is more like 18, 19 micron. More like 30.

[Melissa Lee]

Really?

[Carter Worth]

Yeah. So I mean listen, if you, if you could drop 40% you could drop 50 at all. Just you know this thing's, this is very quick stuff.

[Guy Adami]

Look no further than other. I mean look at Caterpillar, look at that, that semiconductor company Caterpillar which is also down about 23% and has moved in lockstep with this move. I would also take a look at companies like Texas Instruments that we know caught a bit on the CPU story. Not exactly the same story but if you look at the correction in Qualcomm, I don't know why you're not going to see a correction in some of these old warhorse semiconductor names that I think were given a bid attached to AI that may not be warranted.

[Dan Nathan]

Last time we saw each other was Thursday evening.

[Melissa Lee]

Thursday, yes. That is the night that Intel.

[Dan Nathan]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

Reported.

[Dan Nathan]

You're scaring me. You're scaring me. Intel reported. Tim, you were in Italy, you might

[Guy Adami]

not have seen this a long time. You guys saw each other last Thursday night to hear about this.

[Dan Nathan]

But intel, you know, after hours trading, 107, 108, great quarter. Blythevid is excited. And then you said, what do you think about tomorrow? And I think collectively we said there's a very good chance it opens unchanged to lower. And now here we are at $92. So I think the point is if intel is not rallying on a quarter, which was by their standards, their words, not mine, historical, then you have to wonder how much is left in the tank.

[Melissa Lee]

We got to go to financials, but quickly on Intel. What do you see here?

[Carter Worth]

I mean it's the same circumstance. They're all shapes. They go Qualcomm, you can pick your one. But the. But the situation is, is this kind of aggressive selling that's been on heavy volume and precipitous, is it at a place where it stops? I don't think so. So just stay away.

[Disclaimer Narrator]

All right.

[Melissa Lee]

Finally, financials having a day, as they say. XLF, ETF hitting an all time high, up nearly 20% since hitting a 52 week low at the end of March. Among the names hitting records, JP Morgan, bank of America, Allstate and Aflac. So insurers in there too, obviously. The question here, should we think of these names as expensive? A JP Morgan trading at 2.7 times book, is that expensive?

[Dan Nathan]

Well, if you listen to Jamie Dimon's expense, I mean he said it. So if the CEO of the company it, then you have to take his word for it. The one that stands out to me is the underperformance of Citi since their earnings release. The stock that I thought was going to then shoot through 150, which I think traded close to it is now in the low 130s and it has not traded well since and it didn't participate today. I think if there's opportunity, it still is. A form of letter C. Yeah.

[Guy Adami]

Are they expensive relative to themselves?

[Tim Seymour]

They are.

[Guy Adami]

Relative to five years ago? They are. Are they relative to either a market multiple? You know, again we're not looking at the market on a price to pick typically. But in Bankland we are. Look at the numbers we got out of investment banking, look at the numbers we got out of sales and trading. Look at the numbers that we actually even heard on net interest margins. And I think it adds up to a story where banks again, why not be a safe haven? The bigger part of what we're talking about, and we've all talked about in different ways over the last few weeks, there's a credit story here that is unwinding and especially its long duration issuance by hyperscalers and you know, coming to a theater near you at some point, banks are going to have some issues here. Right now banks are a safe trade.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, you know, I'm glad you brought that up. I'm not one of the smart guys. The smart guys are writing about this all over substack. It just seems like this is one that we're going to. If you're not paying attention, it's going to be like a Q1, Q2 thing in 2027. This credit situation as it relates to hyperscalers because if the stocks can't perform well, there's no reason that the credit, credit should perform well. And if you have a push out. Today's thing with Nvidia, I mean as soon as I saw that headline this morning, the first thing I saw I was like, holy, you know what I mean? Like this, it couldn't get more bearish, you know. And the fact that Nvidia closed down 5% today is telling you all you need to know. So if you want to extrapolate that to the banks, I think it's also interesting that Goldman Sachs has traded very poorly since after its earnings it made a new all time high at a huge day. The lows today was down 10%. If you think that Open Air is going public this, this year, I mean you got another thing coming. I mean this thing sounds like a dumpster fire and it's felt that way for almost six to nine months right now. And this is the one, this is the one that's supposed to keep everything

[Guy Adami]

afloat and in video and they're backstopping them. Yeah, I mean 250 billion.

[Carter Worth]

Yeah.

[Guy Adami]

So I totally agree with that. I also think, you know, a company that seems to have a government or is looking for some kind of a government bailout right now or I mean that's not what they're calling it but

[Melissa Lee]

boy, it feels like the government, whatever

[Guy Adami]

you want to call it, but I. They'd be Rushing to market if they could. They missed it. By the way, Pat Elon on the back, he got out there at the right time.

[Carter Worth]

I mean the thing about Goldman and Morris Stanley, they, JP Morgan was trailing them on, on a, on a four or five year relative low basis. They were just so far ahead of their peers, those two sort of mid sized broker dealers, whether it's Raymond James or a Jefferies, they are overdone. JP Morgan is the one to own here.

[Melissa Lee]

Meanwhile, the CBO sees a trend that suggests risk aversion in the market. Let's bring in Mandy Hsu, the firm's head of derivatives market intelligence. Mandy, great to have you with us.

[Mandy Hsu]

Great to be here.

[Melissa Lee]

So risk aversion meaning what? Not fans of technology anymore or just overall markets?

[Etsy Narrator]

Sure.

[Mandy Hsu]

So let me be clear. I think the option market is signaling more caution in the forward outlook right now, not outright bearishness. And I say that on the back a couple of things. So first, in terms of what traders are pricing for expected volatility going forward, they're now expecting volatility to be much higher in the next 30 days than what we've seen over the past month. So that volatility risk premium, the difference between implied versus realized volatility went from negative to positive and is trading at historically elevated levels. The second thing is that we're seeing a pickup in hedging demand. So demand for index level protection, S and P puts that suggests that people are turning a little bit more cautious in their outlook. And the last thing to flag is that, you know, while the VIX index so far has been relatively calm, you know, around 18, we're seeing very elevated volatility at the single stock level. So single stock average single stock volatility trading close to 50 and that spread between single stock volatility versus the index at a record high.

[Dan Nathan]

And that's what we've talked about. So is that a precursor to the VIX or is that just sort of an outlier and it's going to come back to normal at some point?

[Mandy Hsu]

Point, sure. That's a great question and what we've been getting quite, quite often recently, so I would say it can be sustained if you think that you know the risk in the market is going to be remain fundamental regarding, like earnings, regarding the trade, we've gotten more and more questions around when does this kind of risk turn from idiosyncratic risk to more systemic macro risk. So two ways I think. One is obviously we get renewed macro risks such as inflation with geopolitics. The second Is, you know, if the trade which right now has been more about picking winners and losers, turns more into systemic risk. Right. Whether that's the circle of financing that we're talking about through the credit channel, whether that's just a pullback in CapEx, which you know, as we know that's been kind of boosting up US gdp. So if we do see a pullback there, you know, that could have broader implications in terms of what it means for GDP growth. So I definitely see, see potential for it to move both ways. I would say right now the market is pricing for it to remain more of a fundamental idiosyncratic risk. But certainly more and more investors are asking the question when does this trade become, you know, move away from idiosyncratic towards more systemic risk?

[Tim Seymour]

You know, the S and P has shown great relative strength to the NASDAQ 100. Now if I'm looking at SPI options at the money you just said, the forward sort of outlook for volatility, I'm looking at 3.2% implied move be between now and August expiration. You know the Math Simply that's 1.6% if you want to buy a call or 1.6% if you want to buy a put looking out to August expiration, the 21st. Think about like the S and P, we're going to get probably 40, 50% of S& P earnings in that time frame. That seems way too cheap to me.

[Mandy Hsu]

Yeah. So the way that people have been playing earnings is not necessarily through index level options. Right. Because as we talked about, I don't

[Tim Seymour]

mean playing earnings, I mean everything thing. I mean geopolitics, I mean fundamentals, I

[Guy Adami]

mean, so buy index options.

[Mandy Hsu]

I think that that is exactly the reasoning behind kind of this recent pickup in hedging activity that we have seen is people looking at kind of the absolute level of volatility. Right. With the Vix at 18 and saying kind of given the catalyst that we have on the horizon, maybe it is a good idea, especially with levels of correlation and dispersion at such extremes, to own some index level volatility.

[Guy Adami]

And as you look at the proportion of MAG7 that are part of those indices and because they're breaking down, I mean, are investors just following that in? I mean it's pretty clear that what we saw lead the indices. And I always remember from my long short equity days, the index option was the one that had you sleep at night but didn't do anything for you until there was a bloodbath.

[Mandy Hsu]

Yeah. What's interesting on the max 7 front on the tech front is that retail sentiment has actually shifted quite notably kind of beneath the surface. So when we look at subsegment of the tech trade, like the hyperscalers in particular, we've actually noticed a pickup in bullish sentiment amongst retail when it comes to option flows that we're seeing on exchanges. So the percent of trades that are retail investors buying call options to open that recently hit near an all time high that we have going back, you know, history going back six years. So that's telling you that retail investors coming in, maybe looking at the relative underperformance of these names and using options to express a bullish view. And then on the flip side on the chip names and the memory stocks in particular, we're actually seeing a pullback in terms of retail sentiment, bullish sentiment there. So it's been interesting kind of mix. I think a lot of times people think of retail investors as being very momentum driven. What we're seeing actually they're becoming more, more sophisticated in how they're using options.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Mandy, great to see you. Thank you Mandy. Shoe Cibo. Coming up, a software reboot. The sector outperforming ahead of a key earnings. Next week. A look at the stocks leading the charge and whether to believe the latest bounce. That's next. Plus trading. The minor meltdown. The slow drip lower in GDX is catching one of our traders attention. So it's a time to start panning for bargain. We'll debate that. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back into.

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[Melissa Lee]

welcome back to Fast Money. Software stocks fighting back today the IGB up more than 3% its best day in a month. Asana Ring Central Atlassian among the big winners in the group and service now by the way, jumping almost 7%. That's more than erasing the losses after Wednesday's earnings report. Microsoft, of course the next big name in the space reporting on Wednesday. That stock is up today but still the worst performing Mag7 name over the past year. What do you make of this bounce?

[Dan Nathan]

The Pavlovian response if I thank you of basically getting out of semis, getting out of memory, going back to software, we've seen it at least six or seven times over the last month. I think that's what we're seeing now. I do think a short term bottom is in on the software front. If you want to own igv, I think you can hear, I think it's got low one hundreds written all over it.

[Carter Worth]

So forget about downside for a second. And there's always the risk of that. But it does doesn't have any life. Right. Does it really bounce here and do something? Maybe it outperforms because the denominator semis. Right. The ratio chart could get worse and I think that's the case. But there's just nothing here that's exciting to my eye. These are sort of dull charts and I would, I would resist the temptation

[Melissa Lee]

and Microsoft falls into the dull chart category.

[Carter Worth]

Okay, so it may be it beats and it goes up 3 or 4% but I mean you're trying to stock those up at 550 and it's sitting here at 390. What's going to really fix it takes a lot of time.

[Guy Adami]

I think that's right. Although I do feel and again I defer to the chartmaster here. I mean that that chart isn't sexy, but it does feel like it's de risked and it does feel that the group is is in a place where if I'm going to buy one it's Microsoft also subscribing to the Apple theory. You know, copilot's still going to be sitting out there for people on their desk and it's going to pick it up. And at this point if I hear Microsoft pull Back on Capex, I actually think it's good news for Microsoft and bad news for Amazon. And I, I just think Apple and Microsoft have a little bit of kind of legacy, both enterprise and retail platform base that serves them well.

[Carter Worth]

Yeah, go ahead. I was going to say, I just spoke, I. How about, how about I yield the floor to you? Go ahead.

[Tim Seymour]

I have nothing to say about the fundamentals until you.

[Dan Nathan]

All right.

[Carter Worth]

I was going to say, one could just say, hey look, if any time Microsoft's down 36% from its high, you buy it, hold it for two, three years, you probably do pretty well. That is the circumstance now, right? So you could say, but that's just the buy and hold thing here and now. Is it really timely? Is exciting? No, to your point, it's been DE risk down 36% but I just, you know, find something else.

[Tim Seymour]

You know, I wonder if you could make that same argument about Palantir. I mean this is one of the only names within the software space that you could have said that they are well positioned, a pure play to some degree on how they're using their AI platform and what the opportunity is for them. Because again they had half as far as government, half was the enterprise. And it seemed like Enterprise was picking back up this stock at its lows last month was down 50% from its all time highs. I mean this was literally again the poster child for how software companies might avoid the disruption that we're seeing in a lot of SAS names. And you know, it's been cut in half. It's at 40 times sales, you know right now, now obviously it was trading at 80 times sales 6, 7, 9 months ago or whatever it was. And so like a lot of the air is coming out of these names. I do think it's interesting that this one underperforms over the last month OR 2. The IGV.

[Guy Adami]

This, this sounds like silver lining Dan on Palantir. I mean this thing's going much lower.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean like it's just so obvious to me and I love it. That wasn't it. Michael Burry like owns the like the long dated 50 puts like and he just keeps adding to them. I think if you read his substack,

[Melissa Lee]

do you see the same sort of circumstance and Palantir?

[Carter Worth]

Same circumstance. Generally speaking, the burden of proof is on the ball. The Bears just points to the last 8, 10 months and says look man, I'm not interested.

[Dan Nathan]

You know, it's amazing, Melissa. I know.

[Melissa Lee]

You know, so many things are amazing.

[Guy Adami]

Oh boy.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, Silver Linings Playbook is a great movie. Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Hoya, by the way, but they're both huge fans of Fast Money. I know this. I know sometimes they watch it together.

[Melissa Lee]

I'm sure they do. We say sarcastically, a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Fast Money Promo Narrator]

Next

luxury living the high end housing market is defying expectations where buyers are snapping up trophy homes now. And a top real estate broker's read on what comes next. Plus Fool's Gold Tough stretch for miners as the precious metals trade pulls back. Whether the group can regain its luster or if the sell off has further to go, you're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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[Dan Nathan]

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Since hitting a record high in early March, the Vaneck Gold Miners ETF has been in a notable downtrend losing more than a third of its value from its peak. The fund's top holdings all down 20% or more since that time. Guy, you flagged that chart.

[Dan Nathan]

I did. So the all time high was 117. We recently traded down to a low that we made I think in November of last year. I think this downtrend series of lower highs and lower lows is about to be broken to the upside. I believe in gold. I think when things I think there's a very good chance that at some point a bond market that deteriorates which I think will happen will be bullish of gold and I think you want on the gold miners here.

[Carter Worth]

So it's really the same circumstances. Some of the other things we just talking about where there's a lot of damage done and it would take a lot to get this back up on its feet. But as a pair to spy I think that's the way to go after this. So down 40% from its peak of just four or five months.

[Guy Adami]

So I would take Guy set up with Carter's charts and say this is exactly the sequencing that comes when you have a blow up on the credit side that's going to take the Fed out of the hike picture and actually push them back into the easing picture. It doesn't happen tomorrow, but this is exactly when you want to buy gold.

[Tim Seymour]

Gold.

[Guy Adami]

Gold is setting you up to be very, very defensive in a world where the Fed is not worried about inflation, they're worried about the opposite. And it doesn't mean inflation goes away like the call. And just because gold went too far too fast to the upside doesn't mean that a lot of the same thesis doesn't work right now.

[Carter Worth]

Yeah.

[Melissa Lee]

You like gold.

[Dan Nathan]

I do. And you mentioning in the commercial break the guy is giddy tonight. You really miss Tim Seymour and I did.

[Melissa Lee]

Because you are happy.

[Dan Nathan]

I'm happy all the time. But I'm particularly happy tonight.

[Guy Adami]

But that makes me happy.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Guy Adami]

It's just, it's, it's giddy all around. By the way, I raise you giddiness. But that's nice.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, the price of prestige from Manhattan to Miami, luxury homes are changing hands at a rapid clip. Ryan Sirhant is here at the NASDAQ to break down the hottest markets right now and what comes next for the high end market when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. Stocks ending the day mix. The Dow adding 250 points while the S and P finished flat. The NASDAQ closing with a small loss. General Motors and Ford higher today after Jefferies upgraded both automakers to a buy. Analysts seeing improving earnings, healthy market conditions and stronger capital allocation working in favor of the companies. And D wave quantum soaring 20% after announcing a partnership with AT&T with plans to use its technology for network optimization. And Space X that was down again today though it did close off its worst levels of the session. The Rocket company falling below the $109 mark at its lows. It ended the day 50% below the all time high hit on June 16th. Meantime, the 30 year mortgage rate near levels not seen in about a year and median home prices hit their highest level in record last month. But that doesn't seem to be squelching demand among the highest tier homebuyer. For more on the state of the luxury real estate market, let's bring in Sirhant, founder and CEO and star of Netflix's owning Manhattan, the one and only Ryan Sirhant. Ryan, welcome.

[Dan Nathan]

Let's go. We should give him a run.

[Ryan Serhant]

This is a fun table.

[Guy Adami]

It is now.

[Melissa Lee]

So let's Location, location, location. Let's start off in Manhattan. Sure has a pier to tear tax done anything to demand.

[Ryan Serhant]

It's done some to demand. For people that are looking just purely at purchasing a pit a tear because you have to factor in your annual monthly payment. You know, how do you buy something if you don't know what it's going to cost you year in, year out? But our explanation of it to those purchasers are, listen, there's just a tax class system. If you own a property in your own name and you live in it in New York City, you pay one type of annual property tax. If you own it as an investment, you can't submit for the 17% residential tax abatement that everybody else can. Now, if you own it as a pied a terran, you want to leave it vacant, meaning no one in your family, no tenants, no one else, you're just going to leave it vacant.

[Empower Narrator]

You're going to buy it, but you're

[Ryan Serhant]

going to leave it vacant. You're going to pay more in your annual tax. Everyone got those notices today. I actually got, I got one, I got one today. It's in my pocket. It's all red. It's very bright, very, very fast.

[Melissa Lee]

But the luxury market has been, it sounds like it's been very strong.

[Ryan Serhant]

There are, there is no longer a housing market in the United States. I just got back from Texas. It's our 17th state. We just opened up. Across the entire marketplace, there are four Americas. There are cash buyers who live in a completely different world. It didn't used to be that way. Me growing up in the real estate industry, if you're a cash or financing, it didn't really make a difference. Today it makes a difference. There's cash buyers, there's buyers who need financing who are paying six and a half percent, putting 20% down. There's owners who are locked into 3% rates, who are imprisoned in their own homes. And there's builders. Those are four very, very different kind of cast players. And they look at the world in a different place.

[Guy Adami]

Ryan, where's their overcapacity? Where have people gone bananas? Whether if you want to pick locally, but think about again, nationally, we've seen a lot of these trends coming out of COVID The Southwest was booming. Florida went over the top. Any places that you would see, say caution, flash red.

[Ryan Serhant]

We're seeing buyers continuously flock to new construction. Everybody always wants the next new shiny toy. Was looking at some of our new listings that we have in north, north Dallas on Thursday and there's a town where two years ago there were 10 buyers for every house. Today there's 10 houses for every buyer literally in one town over. Not a whole lot different, similar school districts. It's like it was two years ago, but the houses are just a little bit newer. But you're dealing with builders. Builders are class system number four. They need to move inventory. They have construction debt, they have mez debt, they have equity partners. They're throwing two years of tax payments, you know, everything at the door. So there are moments where you can negotiate. So the tougher market right now is, let's say that middle class market who bought a couple years ago, who is now competing against the incentives that builders can give out in new construction.

[Dan Nathan]

So about the Hamptons. You read a lot now. The traffic out there is an abomination. You can take two hours to go from, let's just say Watermill all the way out to Montauk. So what's the next area in the Hamptons that not enough people are talking about?

[Ryan Serhant]

We're doing deal after deal after deal on the North Fork. The North Fork has always been hot, but it's been a little bit quieter. But now it is equally hot. We have buyers who are saying, listen, I'll look at quag, I'll look at West Hampton, but I also want to look at the North Fork. Let me see what I can get for my money. If I can get a great property, great taxes, great little town and I can spend half or 60% of what it's going to cost me to be 45 minutes further east than all. Take a look. We also have people that are looking all over Long Island. We also have people looking in the Carolinas. I mean, people are location agnostic now wherever they can get to easily, whether it's with car or emergency flying distance, they don't have to be in just one spot anymore. We also have Americans buying internationally now in kind of the largest wave that I've seen in quite some time. Whether it's due to the current political environment or they can just get more for their money. And we are referring out deal after deal after deal to Portugal, you know, different parts of Spain, across Europe in a way that we never have in my career anyway.

[Carter Worth]

So which of these very high end holds up the very best in the next real route? For instance, Monaco is always considered the most ultimate luxury place. Prices almost never go down.

[Ryan Serhant]

Sure.

[Carter Worth]

Would you say it's Miami, is it Southampton, is it Manhattan? Which holds up the very best in the next real impact sense of duress.

[Ryan Serhant]

Real estate is broken down into four groups like I said and then the actual asset is, is broken down into two. One is as an asset, one is as infrastructure. If the real estate is looked at as infrastructure, so first time homebuyers, middle class buyers, people who are having babies, they're moving, etc. That's infrastructure that will always, that'll always come and go and override the wave. If the real estate is an asset like waterfront Palm beach waterfront Sagaponic Monaco Limited Supply, it is a wealth holder. Right. It's, it's. That is where you will forever be able to kind of retain value.

[Carter Worth]

Right. But if you had to pick one.

[Ryan Serhant]

Yeah.

[Carter Worth]

Which do you think holds up the

[Ryan Serhant]

very best of always, always the asset because location. Oh around the world.

[Carter Worth]

Just pick some of these very high end places. Miami, Bridgehampton.

[Melissa Lee]

What's narrow to the US and this is actually a question that I asked Robert Refkin of Compass when he was here. Where would you invest your money right now? What city?

[Ryan Serhant]

I look at job growth I mentioned I think a couple of months ago and I got a lot of flack for it that I like Bluffton, South Carolina. I like Savannah, Georgia. I like that airport. I like the aerospace industry. I like a lot of the job growth in the tech industry that's moving into that location. You get a lot more for your money and a lot more for your dollar and you have ability to, to grow and you also have a good state and local government situation that is incentivizing growth.

[Melissa Lee]

Some good ideas. Ryan, thank you. Nice to see you.

[Carter Worth]

Awesome stuff.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, the next evolution in trading single stock futures launching on the CME inside the newest derivatives product and whether it's better, a better bet than options. That's next. Fast Money is back right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. CME Group launching single stock futures today, offering a different way for investors to hedge 55 of the largest US companies including Nvidia, Micron and Space X. The cash settled contracts trade nearly 24 hours a day are not impacted by decay or implied volatility like options are. We did speak to Tim McCourt who's head of products basically at. I mean he said it's much simpler and also you can trade this along with all of the index features that you might be trading. So it's a convenient, there's a convenience factor as well.

[Tim Seymour]

I think the ease, I think the cash settled nature on the close, I think the ability to use stops. I also think a lot of the trading platforms that retail are Using, they're getting a lot more familiar with trading futures because index options are traded on most of them. And so, you know, sometimes options or index futures, excuse me, trading on most of the platform. I think options can be complicated. I think that, you know, again, I did a show with you for 10 years called Options Action and you know,

[Guy Adami]

we really didn't understand.

[Tim Seymour]

Carter.

[Melissa Lee]

Carter.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I know, but that was one of the points. But the point is in the last 10 years there's like zero days to X. I mean, there's so many options, you know, easy it is to hit the wrong button and have the wrong trade. And I just think having one future to trade, I look forward to trading them. I'll just be very clear about that.

[Carter Worth]

I mean, the sell side will always sell, bring out new products. That's how it works.

[Melissa Lee]

Well and of course this comes alongside the rise of perpetual futures and predictions. It's competition with the retail trading activity from hyper liquid Kalshee Poly around the

[Guy Adami]

clock, I mean, around the clock is really important, especially I think in index land. But you bring it into single stock, there's news that's breaking, you want to be there. It's a good time.

[Dan Nathan]

That existential risk that people spoke of in the way the stock traded, CME Group from I think 320 down to 220 almost in a straight line, I think that's sort of rearview mirror now. And if you look at the last quarter they reported a week or so ago, pretty extraordinary in terms of average daily volume. So good for cme. They continue to be ahead of the curve.

[Melissa Lee]

It's interesting and I was reminded by, of this by Mike Santoli that once upon a time there was single stock futures. And that was, you know, when you say quad witching, it was single stock, but now there's no more.

[Fast Money Promo Narrator]

Right?

[Melissa Lee]

And then they brought it back. So it's sort of interesting, the evolution of it and the timing of the product wasn't good the first time around. You know, 24 years there was no liquidity.

[Tim Seymour]

You know, I mean, that was a

[Guy Adami]

big part of it.

[Tim Seymour]

And I think that these markets show us across the board of risk assets, there's nothing but transparency and liquidity. I mean, for the most part, I mean, I'd much rather play these using margin than some of these levered ETFs or reverse ETFs.

[Guy Adami]

I'm going to remind that trading profits for the banks are up 75% year over year. And this is part of again, the culture we have in this, this market. And It's a different culture and it's a much more. I know there's more volume out there, but my guess is this is exactly why these products, as Carter said, are out there.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, industrials firing on all cylinders inside the sector's massive outperformance this year and whether the Chartmaster thinks this rally is built to last. Next, more fast money into. Welcome back to fast money. All eyes might be on on AI but the industrial sector has quietly been a real outperformer, almost doubling the S and P performance so far this year. But are there more gains in the sector's future? The Chartmaster has the charts over there by the telestrator Chartmaster.

[Carter Worth]

Well they're way ahead of the market this year but they're trailing on a 15 year basis substantially. And actually first chart they match the markets is the beginning of GICS data. That's general industry classification standards. The sectors that we now use. It's dead heat with the S&P 500 itself. Okay, let's move on to five identical charts of the sector. One way to draw the lines. One could say it's 5050, make your bet or pair to leave it alone. My bet is green arrow up. Look at the next iteration. Same chart again. We have this breakout, this check back and finding support. Another way to draw it. Green arrow, another iteration. It's all the same chart. This is what my eye sees. So we have an uptrend here, here we almost get there again. I think it gets the green arrow. Let's put the last two charts together and you'll see here. So again a very constructive setup. Green arrow one more time, final iteration. Another way to annotate the circumstance at hand. Final iteration. From a buyer. That's it.

[Melissa Lee]

Would you agree?

[Dan Nathan]

Well, you got to believe in Caterpillar. You got to believe in both ges. If you agree with Carter and given to sell off. We've seen a Caterpillar maybe that, you know, maybe you've seen enough to the downside. I think they report on August 4th if I'm not mistaken, you've had a decent sell off. The quarter is going to be great. I think you can get an XLI ahead of the Caterpillar earnings for that reason.

[Guy Adami]

I think first of all industrials on a risk adjusted basis relative to the S and P. That's an interesting look and I think it's, it's been great. The story of industrials is the story of AI and margin and efficiency and boy, I think this is a great place to be and Again if you look at the Spy V so the value S and P, a lot of some of these names are in there. Yeah, you stay long. Industrial what?

[Melissa Lee]

If you believe that the data center build out is going to stall or bust then can you, can you be a buyer of industrials?

[Guy Adami]

It's.

[Melissa Lee]

I'm not even looking because that's fundamental stuff but you want to comment on that?

[Carter Worth]

But it's not. That's Caterpillar, Union Pacific, the Rails are making new highs right now. They have nothing to do with that. You know Boeing is coming to life a real laggard. It's a, it's a very mixed bag. But it's not just that story.

[Tim Seymour]

All right, so going back to the credit data center thing, I Mean Matters raising $12 billion to do a data center, where is it at seven and a half percent. I mean think about that. And they just raised debt for their

[Guy Adami]

by the way demand for those bonds not high at seven point that deal

[Tim Seymour]

is not going well how Amazon did. So if you, you think, you know Mel, you just asked the question if it's going to slow down, it's going to slow down because these guys can't. These are the best credits on the planet. These companies had debt to equity ratios that were you know off the charts, you know like a year ago or two years ago and now they're raising just below like freaking junk.

[Guy Adami]

92% of operating profit is spent on capex. 92% for the, for the hyperscalers. It was not like that a few years ago. And again this is what, look at where meta spreads are on their 10 year paper. And again this is what you guys are saying in terms of what people are writing about in the credit markets. They're issuing long duration credit which is a lot heavier, a lot more, you know, damaging in terms of the impact and anyway the mismatch to the depreciation

[Tim Seymour]

of the assets that they're buying. I mean that's it. Jim Chanos has been talking about it. It seems pretty obvious no one's paying attention to it.

[Guy Adami]

By the way those are off balance sheet obligations a lot of these guys haven't even spoken about.

[Melissa Lee]

Okay, up next, final trades, Final trade time. Timbo?

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, another one of those industrials that's in the gig sector classification are airlines, Delta Airlines.

[Melissa Lee]

Buy that one Carter Braxton worth of

[Carter Worth]

worth charting the general act maker generators GNRC earnings coming up buyers.

[Melissa Lee]

Dan?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, I think the performance of Space X, the unlikelihood of the open air and anthropic going public. I think is sell rallies in Morgan

[Dan Nathan]

House cleaning coming at Shay. By the way, Dan's going to the theater tonight. He's watching what you watching the Artist.

[Melissa Lee]

He's going to get popcorn so our

[Dan Nathan]

Milk Duds which by the way that is the candy of choice. If you're going to the seller not

[Guy Adami]

sell your old buy,

[Dan Nathan]

let her see.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa, thank you for watching Fast. See you back here tomorrow. Mad Money starts right now.

[Disclaimer Narrator]

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[Fast Money Promo Narrator]

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