CNBC Fast Money Podcast Summary

Episode: Digging in on the first round of Big Tech earnings, and What’s Next for the Fed
Date: October 29, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Michael Kantopoulos
Guests: Mackenzie Sigalos, Julia Boorstin, Kate Rogers, Steve Kovac, Steve Liesman, Gene Munster

Episode Overview

This episode of “Fast Money” zeroes in on a massive night for Big Tech earnings reporting, with Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft delivering key quarterly results. The panel delves deep into how these tech titans are navigating AI investments, CapEx surges, and competitive threats, alongside reactions to a Fed rate cut that may not signal further easing this year. Other major movers like Chipotle, Starbucks, Fiserv, Caterpillar and Canvu round out a jam-packed show analyzing market leadership, consumer stress, and sector rotation as investors reassess risk amid earnings and macro policy uncertainty.

1. Big Tech Earnings in Focus

Alphabet (Google)

• Strong Results Across the Board
  • Record trading levels, revenue and EPS beats—even after accounting for EU fines (EPS: $3.10 adj. vs. $2.33 exp.).
  • AI Push is working: Gemini chatbot now 650M monthly users, nearing ChatGPT’s 800M weekly.
  • Cloud growth strong, benefiting from new AI deals (e.g., with Meta, OpenAI, upcoming Anthropic tie-up not yet reflected in backlog).
  • CapEx guidance at the high end ($93B) as Alphabet races to build infrastructure.
• Analyst Reaction
  • Karen Feinerman [03:07]: “Still they managed to beat on almost every metric, which was really, really impressive … there’s still a lot of momentum that is not in this quarter. … The existential threat to the core business of search seems to be at least put to the side at this moment.”
  • Dan Nathan [04:45]: “What I think investors have come around to is that they're not cannibalizing that ad business as much as a lot of folks thought.”
  • Guy Adami [06:28]: “People are going to start to chase here in terms of analysts. ... You put a 30 multiple on this, there's no reason this couldn't be a $320 stock.”

Meta Platforms

• Stock Drops Despite Beats
  • Raised CapEx forecast for 2025 to $70–72B (prev. $66–72B) and signals “notably larger” dollar growth in 2026, spurring heavy investor concern.
  • Recent major third-party cloud deals: $10B with Google (Aug.), $14B with CoreWeave (Sep.), $20B with Oracle (Sep.).
• Concerns Over Rising Spend vs. Returns
  • Karen Feinerman [09:43]: “Earlier on Capex was seen as good. What does the word notably mean here? I don't know. I'm scared of a lot. … The underlying business is really doing well ... but I don't know that we're getting the returns on this kind of spend yet.”
  • Michael Kantopoulos [09:09]: “Many of these tech stocks ... were so attractive for so long because it was viewed as cap light, Capex light and now it's Capex heavy. ... The return on investment becomes much, much harder.”
  • Dan Nathan [10:47]: “Meta is like a distant behind all those other chat bots ... they're trying to fix it … all of this stuff is becoming very financialized ... now it's hitting a wall because 30% of their revenue, it's got to stop at some point, right?”

Microsoft

• Solid Results, Market Unfazed
  • Beat on top and bottom line, Azure growing 40% vs. 38.2% est., first time $4T market cap, but shares still slip post-earnings (valuation concerns).
  • $3B negative impact from OpenAI stake now weighing on net income.
• Views on the Move
  • Guy Adami [15:22]: “There's nothing not to like here ... I just think it came down to valuation. Not good enough at this valuation to get the continued move to the upside.”
  • Dan Nathan [15:45]: “We had this recent run ... really felt like a bit of a blow off top. … The bar was not high going into this quarter for Microsoft necessarily.”
  • Michael Kantopoulos [17:25]: “Much of what we've seen ... has not been earnings driven. It's been more liquidity driven than anything else. ... Earnings have to basically catch up to this massive liquidity driven rally.”

2. Broader Macro & Markets

Federal Reserve Rate Cut & Guidance

• The Fed cut rates by 0.25% as expected, but Chair Powell says further cuts this year are “far from certain;” markets retrace optimistic expectations.
• Mixed market reaction: Tech leadership still strong, but investors wary of Fed’s next steps and any disconnect between liquidity and earnings fundamentals.
• Steve Liesman [30:56]:
  • “In the committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion.”
• Michael Kantopoulos [34:40]: “Unless the data changes meaningfully ... they're not cutting in December and with a 70% chance still priced in that they're going to. I don't think the market quite realizes that yet. ... That's the biggest risk to markets right now.”
• Dan Nathan [36:02]: “The market, the stock market's reaction was pretty fascinating. I mean it just wasn't bothered.”

3. Other Movers & Sectors

Consumer Health: Chipotle & Starbucks

• Chipotle
  • Stock down 13–15% after lowering same-store sales guidance third quarter in a row (now low single digit declines). CEO cites macro step downs, pressure on 25–35 year olds earning under $100K who are “dining at home more.”
  • Kate Rogers [22:02]: “Some of those macro pressures he suspects will continue into the first half of next year ... he's going to be really conservative on pricing and try to not pass on tariff pricing.”
  • Guy Adami [24:20]: “Now valuation is going to start to be under the microscope … when the comps start to flatline, everyone looks at valuation.”
• Starbucks
  • Mixed results: Missed EPS, beat on revenue. Same-store sales were flat in US (best in 6 quarters), up 2% in China.

Fiserv

• Huge misses, loses nearly half of value after slashing revenue growth forecast (from 10% to 3.5–4%) due to Argentina exposure and management shakeup.
• Karen Feinerman [43:15]: “This is a kitchen sink, I think. ... I don't think the ship is right. People work there, they freak out ... I wouldn't be—wait, wait, you want to buy it? Wait.”

Caterpillar

• Stock jumps 11% on record quarters and data center equipment demand, overcoming tariff headwinds.
• Guy Adami [44:21]: “Valuation, it's still not ridiculously expensive ... margins are improving ... I don't think you chase today, but I don't think you run away from this stock.”

Canvu (Tylenol parent)

• Volatile after HHS Sec. RFK Jr. comments on unclear link between Tylenol & autism (“damage has been done to the brand”).

4. Panel & Expert Insights

Gene Munster on Meta and Big Tech

• On Meta’s stock drop [37:29]:
  • “It’s just a simple dynamic between revenue growth and expense growth ... essentially, the script that we’ve seen with Meta over the past two years got flipped ... it really stung investors.”
  • “Zuck is setting himself up to be the most optimistic of any of the big tech CEOs as evidenced by their increase in capex ... that is a little bit unsettling.”
  • “They need to show some improvement ... probably needs to be something like 20% [revenue growth] and showing that in fact this is driving revenue just like their AI.”
• On market sentiment:
  • “A pause [for Meta] is understandable ... but that expense shift, that was something new. ... Investors are trying to recalibrate something bigger.”

5. Takeaways & Notable Quotes (by Timestamp)

• Alphabet/Google Search & AI

  • Karen Feinerman [03:07]: “...the existential threat to the core business of search seems to be at least put ... to the side at this moment.”
  • Dan Nathan [04:45]: "They're not cannibalizing that ad business as much as a lot of folks thought."

• Meta & Capex

  • Karen Feinerman [09:43]: “Earlier on Capex was seen as good. What does the word notably mean here? ... We’re not getting the returns on this kind of spend yet.”
  • Michael Kantopoulos [09:09]: "It's very similar to like energy ... that constantly has to drill new wells ... The return on investment becomes much, much harder."
  • Dan Nathan [10:47]: "Meta is like a distant behind all those other chat bots ... now it's hitting a wall because 30% of their revenue, it’s got to stop at some point, right?”

• Microsoft

  • Guy Adami [15:22]: “I think it came down to valuation. Not good enough at this valuation to get the continued move to the upside.”
  • Dan Nathan [15:45]: "Really felt like a bit of a blow off top ... some of these larger ones are getting harder to push around."

• Fed & Macro

  • Steve Liesman [30:56]: “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion.”
  • Michael Kantopoulos [34:40]: “Unless the data changes meaningfully ... they're not cutting in December ... That’s the biggest risk to markets right now.”

• Chipotle Macro Pressure

  • Kate Rogers [22:02]: "A key demographic for Chipotle ... younger consumers that are making less than $100,000 a year are eating at home more ... some of those macro pressures he suspects will continue into the first half of next year."
  • Guy Adami [24:20]: "When the comps start to flatline and go the other way, everybody looks at valuation."

• Gene Munster on Meta’s Expense Problem

  • [41:17]: “This is a long term thing, long term opportunity that they're investing into but they are being marked every quarter ... they need to continue to show that in the December quarter.”

6. Important Segment Timestamps

• [00:47] – Show opens: $10T night of earnings, Fed focus, preview.
• [01:56] – Google/Alphabet results and discussion.
• [07:04] – Meta earnings, CapEx debate.
• [14:04] – Microsoft earnings, OpenAI impact, and stock reaction.
• [17:14] – Macro takeaways: Tech leadership versus liquidity/earnings.
• [20:22] – Chipotle, Starbucks: macro headwinds and consumer trends.
• [30:40] – Steve Liesman summarizes Fed decision; policy outlook.
• [37:29] – Gene Munster breaks down Meta’s expense/revenue inflection.
• [42:41] – Fiserv, Caterpillar: biggest sector moves.
• [45:12] – Final trades and closing thoughts.

7. Summary & Flow of Discussion

The team started with an in-depth analysis of Big Tech earnings, focusing especially on each company’s ability to balance AI investment with profitability and market share. There was acute scrutiny on soaring CapEx, especially for Meta, with the core concern becoming whether tech’s old promise of “asset-light” profits is fading. Alphabet faced waning existential threats over AI, while Microsoft’s main criticism was sky-high expectations. The conversation transitioned into the impact of the Fed’s policy, noting markets’ increasing tendency to ignore potential rate-related risks.

The panel assessed consumer headwinds evidenced in Chipotle and retail weakness, warning that macro stress may last well into next year. The episode wrapped with reaction to violent moves in Fiserv and Caterpillar, and a strong cautionary tone about the durability of the liquidity-driven tech rally as market leadership broadens.

Key Takeaway:
The night highlighted investor unease with big tech’s massive spending and a shifting post-pandemic market regime: while AI and infrastructure spending drive eye-popping numbers, the market is beginning to demand clearer ROI—especially as Fed support becomes less predictable. Watch for further broadening beyond mega-cap tech, heightened scrutiny on consumer resilience, and recalibrated expectations on both rates and earnings leadership as the cycle evolves.