CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary Episode: Energy Trade Heats Up… And Starbucks’ Stealth Move 6/11/25
Release Date: June 11, 2025

Hosted by Courtney Reagan alongside a panel of top traders—including Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Bono, Eisen, and Guy Adami—this episode of CNBC’s “Fast Money” delves into the dynamic movements in the energy sector, strategic shifts by Starbucks in China, bullish forecasts for the S&P 500, and the surge in quantum computing stocks. Here's a detailed breakdown of the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

1. Energy Trade Reheats Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The episode kicks off with a focus on the energy sector, highlighting a significant uptick in oil prices and energy stocks. With crude oil surging nearly 5%, reaching its highest level since April, the energy sector is leading the market’s gains.

• Geopolitical Influences: The rise in oil prices is partly attributed to heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, leading to reports of the U.S. considering evacuating its embassy in Baghdad. President Trump expressed skepticism about Iran’s commitment to halting uranium enrichment, affecting market sentiments.
  Courtney Reagan [01:04]:“... the US Officials are reportedly looking to evacuate the American Embassy in Baghdad amid heightened tensions with Iran.”

• Energy Sector Performance: The S&P 500 energy sector has risen by 1.5%, propelled by gains in companies like Devon Energy, Target Resources, ConocoPhillips, and Diamondback—all up over 2%.
  Bono [03:03]:“... I think of the S&P 500 now, the energy sector, I do think there's something going on here to pay attention to.”

• Market Outlook: While Bono sees potential for continued growth, Steve Grasso offers a cautious perspective, suggesting that the energy sector's current rally might be a minor correction rather than a sustained breakout.
  Steve Grasso [04:39]:“I think there's going to be an oversupply. But this is just a minor correction in my opinion.”

• Regulatory Impact: Guy Adami discusses the possibility of deregulation acting as a catalyst for further investment in the energy sector, though he remains skeptical about it becoming a core holding.
  Guy Adami [06:14]:“... there's a lot of volatility in there. But... I think there's a short term, medium term catalyst or possibility for you to trade around these names.”

2. US-China Trade Negotiations and Market Implications

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the ongoing US-China trade negotiations and their potential impact on the broader market and Federal Reserve policies.

• Treasury Secretary’s Testimony: Eamonn Javers reports on the Treasury Secretary’s extensive testimony before Capitol Hill committees, indicating willingness to extend trade negotiation deadlines if discussions are progressing in good faith.
  Eamonn Javers [10:10]:“... President Trump has expressed a willingness to push the deadline for those negotiations past what President Trump has already said.”

• Market Reaction: The market response to the trade talks has been muted, suggesting that investors had anticipated much of the news. Bono notes that the persistence of tariffs remains a concern.
  Guy Adami [13:05]:“... we have danced around already for the first part of the show.”

• Fed Policy Concerns: Steve Grasso and Chris Harvey discuss how unresolved trade tensions and tariff impacts could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, balancing between rate hikes and cuts based on economic indicators.
  Chris Harvey [15:49]:“... not enough hard data to support a rate cut or raise right now until we get several more months of inflationary data.”

3. Bullish Forecast for the S&P 500

Chris Harvey, Head of Equity Strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, presents a bullish outlook for the S&P 500, predicting a 16% rise by year-end despite prevailing uncertainties.

• Investment Thesis: Harvey emphasizes strong credit spreads, a robust IPO and M&A market, and potential benefits from reduced tariffs as key drivers for the S&P 500’s growth.
  Chris Harvey [15:49]:“... credit spreads are not very recessionary. The IPO market is hot. M&A markets are beginning to come back.”

• Soft vs. Hard Data: He stresses the importance of focusing on hard economic data over soft indicators, asserting that the hard data supports continued market strength.
  Chris Harvey [17:04]:“I discount the soft data heavily. We're not... there's nothing systemic.”

• Potential Risks: While optimistic, Harvey acknowledges risks such as potential future rate cuts and increased volatility, which could affect the market trajectory.
  Chris Harvey [17:11]:“... there's nothing systemic. There's nothing... that tells us jobs are being cut yet.”

4. Surge in Quantum Computing and High-Tech Stocks

The conversation shifts to the burgeoning field of quantum computing, with a notable surge in related stocks following optimistic statements from Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang.

• CEO Insights: Jensen Huang announced at the GTC Paris Developer Conference that quantum computing is nearing practical usability within the coming years, shortening the previously estimated timeline from 20 years to a closer horizon.
  Courtney Reagan [28:59]:“Jensen Huang said, 'we are within reach of being able to use quantum computers in the coming years.'”

• Market Response: Quantum computing stocks, including companies like D-Wave and IBM, have surged over 25%, driven by these optimistic projections.
  Chris Harvey [29:27]:“Quantum computing rising more than 25%. Rigidity up 11%.”

• Skepticism on Sustainability: Steve Grasso expresses caution, noting that many high-tech companies are still burning cash and questioning the sustainability of the rapid stock price increases based solely on CEO optimism.
  Steve Grasso [30:53]:“... if you really start to look at these balance sheets are still burning cash.”

5. Oracle’s Strong Earnings and Stock Performance

Oracle has reported robust earnings, leading to a significant appreciation in its stock price, though concerns about overvaluation persist.

• Earnings Highlights: Oracle surpassed earnings and revenue expectations, with CEO Safra Catz and CTO Larry Ellison expressing strong optimism about future growth, particularly in cloud infrastructure.
  Christina Parts [24:05]:“Oracle is promising 100% growth for remaining performance obligations in fiscal 2026.”

• Stock Reaction: Following the earnings report, Oracle's shares surged nearly 9%, with some investors pushing the stock up to 7% from its January highs.
  Guy Adami [25:10]:“... the stock pop even higher to 7%.”

• Valuation Concerns: While recognizing Oracle's efficient operations and growth prospects, Bono and Adami voice concerns over the stock’s high trailing P/E ratio, suggesting it may be overvalued despite strong fundamentals.
  Bono [26:29]:“... 41 times trailing. This is a company that says 26 is going to be better than 25.”

6. Starbucks’ Strategic Moves in China

Starbucks is exploring strategic options in its Chinese market, including the potential sale of a minority stake, amidst growth challenges and competitive pressures.

• Expansion Plans: CEO Brian Niccol indicated interest in partnerships to expand Starbucks’ presence in China from 8,000 to 20,000 stores by 2025, amidst a competitive landscape dominated by lower-cost rivals like Luckin Coffee.
  Kate Rogers [32:42]:“... they see the value of the Starbucks brand... taking this from 8,000 to 20,000 stores.”

• Market Challenges: Despite growth ambitions, same-store sales in China have been flat for five consecutive quarters, and non-coffee-based drinks are gaining traction among consumers preferring tea options.
  Kate Rogers [33:05]:“... same store sales were flat in China last quarter.”

• Investor Concerns: Guy Adami expresses skepticism about the speed of operational improvements and the ability to pass on price increases to consumers, which may hinder top-line growth.
  Guy Adami [34:13]:“... top line is not growing but the bottom line looks like it might be more challenged.”

• Strategic Outlook: Chris Harvey emphasizes the importance of the CEO’s strategy in turnaround efforts, highlighting that successful leadership can drive the necessary cultural and operational changes.
  Chris Harvey [36:09]:“When you buy a turnaround story, you buy the CEO.”

7. International Markets Outperforming the U.S.

The panel discusses the strong performance of international markets, particularly Europe and Japan, which have outpaced the S&P 500 this year.

• Market Performance: MSCI Europe and Japan ETFs are nearing record highs, with Europe up over 30% and Japan up 10% year-to-date, outperforming U.S. markets which have seen more modest gains.
  Guy Adami [43:41]:“MSCI Europe and Japan ETFs are making new record highs, outpacing the U.S. by about 10% in currency terms.”

• Investment Thesis: Adami advocates for international diversification, citing better corporate governance, improved dividend payouts, and attractive valuations in markets like Germany and Japan.
  Guy Adami [44:41]:“... we are long all these names in ideva, which is my international etf. SAP is an AI software play... Siemens is a major beneficiary.”

• Strategic Advantage: The panel suggests that international markets offer mean reversion opportunities, positioning themselves as long-term trades with substantial upside potential.
  *Chris Harvey [44:41]:“... making international great again doesn’t have to

mean that this was just a trade. It's part of a mean reversion trade that makes it a longer term trade.”*

8. Ramp CEO Tim Seymour Discusses Company Growth

In an exclusive segment, Ramp’s CEO Tim Seymour elaborates on the fintech startup’s achievements and future directions, highlighting its AI-driven financial operations platform.

• Company Overview: Ramp provides a comprehensive financial operations platform that automates expense reports, payments, and accounting, helping businesses reduce spending by an average of 5% annually.
  Tim Seymour [38:48]:“We help companies reduce the amount they spend... on average reduce their expenses by about 5% per year.”

• AI Integration: Seymour emphasizes the deep integration of AI within Ramp’s platform, enhancing speed and accuracy in financial tasks, and underscores the company’s rapid growth, now serving over 40,000 businesses.
  Tim Seymour [40:00]:“AI can definitely handle your expense report... it can help you do your accounting much faster and more accurately.”

• Competitive Edge: Ramp distinguishes itself through measurable impact and speed, having saved customers over $2 billion and automated over 20 million hours of labor since its inception.
  Tim Seymour [41:51]:“We actually measure how much money we have actually saved our customers... over $2 billion since launching just shy of five years ago.”

• Marketing Strategy: The decision to increase visibility through strategic advertising, such as a Super Bowl ad, has significantly contributed to Ramp’s accelerated growth and market presence.
  Bono [41:11]:“... we made a conscious decision to get Ramp in front of people through a Super Bowl ad. That’s paying dividends now.”

9. Final Trades and Closing Remarks

The episode concludes with final trade recommendations, highlighting international ETFs like RWE and discussions on ongoing market opportunities.

• Trade Recommendations: The panel suggests investing in international ETFs, focusing on high-performing markets like Germany (RWE) and Japan (EWJ), leveraging current market strengths and mean reversion trends.
  Guy Adami [46:14]:“... you're looking at SAP, Siemens, and others in Europe and Japan that are benefiting from current market dynamics.”

• Closing Thoughts: The hosts emphasize the importance of diversification and seizing opportunities in both the energy sector and international markets, while maintaining a cautious stance on overvalued stocks like Oracle.
  Steve Grasso [46:20]:“... international theme continues strong with opportunities in Europe and Japan.”

Conclusion

This episode of "Fast Money" provided a comprehensive analysis of current market trends, emphasizing the rebounding energy sector amidst geopolitical tensions, strategic shifts by global giants like Starbucks, bullish projections for the S&P 500, and the promising surge in quantum computing stocks. Additionally, Ramp's innovative approach in the fintech space and the strong performance of international markets were key highlights, offering investors diverse opportunities and insights into navigating the evolving financial landscape.

Notable Quotes:

• Bono [03:03]: “... I do think there's something going on here to pay attention to.”
• Guy Adami [07:47]: “... we're broadening out to provide more opportunity.”
• Chris Harvey [15:49]: “... there's nothing systemic. There's nothing that tells us jobs are being cut yet.”
• Jensen Huang [28:59]: “We are within reach of being able to use quantum computers in the coming years.”
• Tim Seymour [41:51]: “... over $2 billion saved and 20 million hours of labor automated.”

Stay tuned to CNBC’s "Fast Money" for more in-depth financial analysis and trading insights.