CNBC Fast Money – Episode Summary (October 3, 2025)

Episode Overview

On this episode of Fast Money, host Melissa Lee and traders Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, and Bono analyze a week where markets broadly rallied to record highs, examining drivers beyond AI and semiconductors—including small caps, pharma, utilities, and industrials. The show also delves deep into the evolving data center landscape, the private funding versus IPO debate around AI chipmaker Cerebras, signals from consumer staples and copper, the quantum computing boom, casino stock headwinds, and concludes with traders’ top stock picks.

Market Rally: Beyond AI and Semis

[01:03–09:38]

Key Discussion Points

• Broad Market Rally: All major indices closed the week with solid gains; the Dow and S&P 500 hit record closes, propelled not just by AI and semiconductors, but also by breakouts in small caps, pharma, utilities, and “momentum” names like Robinhood and Coinbase.
• Sector Rotation: Signs of rotation into lagging sectors, with the Russell 2000 up over 11% for 2025 and XPH pharma ETF nearing 20% gains in recent months.
• Market Sentiment: Despite a government shutdown and lack of economic data (no jobs number), markets stayed resilient.

Notable Quotes

• On Market Breadth:
  Melissa Lee [05:09]: “It wasn't the Mag 7 that was advancing. There's a broader advance going on here, and maybe that makes you feel better about the levels we're at.”
• On Semiconductors & Data Centers:
  Tim Seymour [02:39]: “Semiconductors hit all-time relative highs against the S&P, and the deal flow and dynamics—today we have more data center deals—nothing about that is letting up.”
• On Small Caps: Bono [05:22]: “If you're seeing a broadening out away from just the Mag 7, from just AI and datacenter plays, I think that's actually supportive of expecting to see larger forward returns.”
• On Healthcare Reversal:
  Melissa Lee [07:48]: "Pfizer almost single-handedly helped reverse the healthcare trade."

The Small Cap and Value Trade

[06:16–09:38]

• Value vs. Growth Positioning: Tim Seymour [06:32]: "This is a week that makes a lot of portfolio managers... feel better because the RSP, the ETF that Bono is referencing, is a very common allocation. ...After a couple years of outperformance in growth, this is kind of a relief."
• Risks in Small Caps:
  Steve Grasso [07:55]: “Russell is 40% unprofitable... if you don’t believe rates will come down precipitously, then the Russell is not going to outperform. So people will go back into mega cap tech right after they’re in this.”
• Defensive Rotation: Bono [08:53]: “If you want to draw down your beta, protect your portfolio a little bit... you look for some of those catch-up trades.”

AI Private Funding Versus Public Markets: Cerebras Cancels IPO

[09:38–10:52]

• Breaking News: AI chipmaker Cerebras cancelled IPO plans after securing $1B in private funding at an $8B valuation.
• Private Liquidity Surges:
  Tim Seymour [10:22]: “Private markets are providing another opportunity... companies are staying private longer. There is liquidity and opportunity for investors to have access to these markets."

Consumer Staples and “The Slim Jim Indicator”

Guest: Peter Boockvar (BFG Wealth Partners) [10:52–18:02]

Highlights

• Barbell Economy: Lower-income consumers focus on value products (e.g., frozen foods, beef jerky), while upper-income spenders are less affected by cost concerns.
• ConAgra’s Mixed Results: Rising costs (commodities + tariffs) pressure business, but low-priced products attract stressed consumers.
• Investment Thesis: Beaten-down staples and food stocks are now cheap with relatively high dividends.
• Macro Implications: If AI impact is stripped from GDP, “the US economy and the US stock market is all in on this tech trade.”

Notable Quotes

• On Consumer Behavior:
  Peter Boockvar [13:44]: “If you own stocks, you’re doing fine. If you don’t, you are really stressed. A lot of ConAgra's customers don’t own stocks.”
• On Defensive Positioning:
  Peter Boockvar [15:04]: “If the economy continues to slow... the market may shift back to health care and staples as more defensive supports.”
• On Staples vs. Growth:
  Tim Seymour [17:12]: “Staples have underperformed the S&P by 41% since the end of December ‘22. Some companies are not cheap. Some have been beaten up... This is a great opportunity for stock picking in a place where I think you’re supposed to always own some staples—it’s just a question of which ones.”

Washington Watch: Government Shutdown Update

[18:40–20:46]

• Stalemate Continues: Congress is deadlocked; Senate failed a fourth time to reopen the government.
• Political Blame Game: Both parties positioning to blame the other; the shutdown may last into next week.
• Market Impacts: Historically, shutdowns don’t typically coincide with strong market rallies as seen this week.

Geopolitical Flash: Israel-Hamas Peace Efforts

[20:47–22:11]

• Trump Issues Statement: President Trump urges Israel to halt bombing for safe release of hostages after Hamas signals openness to negotiations.
• Market Context: No immediate impact discussed but underscores geopolitical tensions with potential market relevance.

Commodities Corner: Copper’s Charge

[24:08–27:21]

Key Points

• Copper Rally: Biggest weekly rally in over a year due to supply disruptions and a weaker USD; FCX mudslide noted as a contributor.
• Long-Term Bull Case: Electric grid buildout (China, AI, and datacenters) drives demand.
  Tim Seymour [25:01]: “Copper is a major input in the buildout of electricity and power grids... the uptrend in copper is alive.”
• Stock Picks: Likes Freeport, Southern Copper, BHP, Rio Tinto for integration.

Notable Quotes

• Steve Grasso [26:34]: “That mine is 3% of the supply. Everything that Tim said—you also have environmental causes, demand through the roof, supply cratering.”

Quantum Computing Stocks: Bubble or Breakout?

[29:21–32:23]

Discussion

• Quantum Stocks Rocket: D-Wave, Rigetti, IonQ with massive weekly/yearly gains.
• Speculation & Parallels to Dotcom:
  Bono [31:25]: “Is this again a bubble? Similar to 1999, 2000—pre-revenue, pre-profitability—that’s what scares me.”
• Growth Timeline Collapsing:
  Steve Grasso [29:21]: “Jensen thought it was 15 years away, now pulled forward to two to five years. I think this is going to go from AI to Quantum.”
• Risks Remain: Highly speculative, “moonshot-type” area—benefits from capital markets activity but lacks sustained profitability.

Deep Dive: The Data Center Boom

Guest: Andrew Oban (BofA) [33:20–40:21]

Technical Innovations

• Datacenter Cost Explosion: Modern datacenters are 10x larger (100MW) than a decade ago—cost per MW at $50M, requiring re-architecture in electrical and cooling systems.
• Bottlenecks Emerge: Electrical and cooling systems pivot from afterthoughts to tech-critical bottlenecks and profit centers.
• Winners in the Space:
  Andrew Oban [37:37]: “Industry will go to the winners, biggest suppliers with best reputation. In our coverage: Vertiv, Eaton... on cooling: JCI, Carrier, Trane.”
• Growth in Services: Installation and maintenance contracts drive moat and recurring revenue.
• Power Demand Growing Rapidly: AI is marginal but regulation, reshoring, and electrification are compounding grid demand.
  Oban [39:50]: “GE Vernova EBITDA will basically double between 2025 and 2027.”

Casino Stocks and Macau Typhoons

Guest: Contessa Brewer (CNBC) [41:07–43:57]

• Massive Drop in Casino Names: Las Vegas Sands, Wynn, Melco, MGM led S&P 500 decliners due to typhoon-related gaming revenue shortfalls in Macau.
• Event-Driven Dip: Golden Week potentially affected by incoming typhoon; longer-term concerns over GGR recovery.
• Non-Gaming Growth? Uncertainty if non-gaming amenities can replace gambling as main revenue source in Macau.

Chart Picks of the Week

[44:23–46:07]

Trader Highlights

• Tim Seymour: Coinbase
  “It’s the platform and infrastructure of digital markets.”
• Bono: Vertiv
  “For every dollar spent on silicon, I believe it’s $3–4 spent on power and cooling.”
• Steve Grasso: “Anduril Innovations” (drone/quantum play)
  • “Moonshot type event... not afraid of the valuation; want to see more contracts.”

Valuation Watch

Melissa Lee [45:29]: “What is the valuation on this one?”
Steve Grasso [45:29]: “200 times EV to sales.”

Final Trades

[46:16–46:34]

• Tim Seymour: Las Vegas Sands
• Bono: Vertiv (picks and shovels data center play)
• Steve Grasso: Digital Realty Trust (data center infrastructure)

Key Timestamps

| Segment | Time | |-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Market Rally Overview | 01:03–05:22| | Small Cap Value Trade | 06:16–09:38| | Cerebras Private Funding / IPO Cancellation | 09:38–10:52| | Consumer Staples & Slim Jim Indicator | 10:52–18:02| | Government Shutdown Update | 18:40–20:46| | Trump Peace Plan on Israel-Hamas | 20:47–22:11| | Copper Rally & Commodities | 24:08–27:21| | Quantum Computing Boom | 29:21–32:23| | Data Center Deep Dive (Andrew Oban) | 33:20–40:21| | Casino Stocks & Macau Update | 41:07–43:57| | Trader Chart Picks | 44:23–46:07| | Final Trades | 46:16–46:34|

Tone & Takeaways

• Optimism with Caution: Broadening rally, but with significant concern about profitless speculation (quantum, small caps) and macro over-reliance on tech/AI.
• Infrastructure Reassessed: Under-the-hood datacenter plays (power, cooling) are the next frontiers.
• Rotation or Bubble?: Ongoing debate if recent moves signal healthy rotation or just a new speculative bubble.
• Market Risk: Political (shutdown) and geopolitical (Middle East) risks remain, but capital flow/rotation continues to dominate.

Standout Quote to Close:
Tim Seymour [17:12]: “This is a great opportunity for stock picking in a place where I think you’re supposed to always own some staples—it’s just a question of which ones.”

This summary captures the main discussions and insights from the October 3, 2025 episode of CNBC's Fast Money, as the show zeroed in on market broadening, sector rotation, new trends in data center infrastructure, the quantum stock rocket ride, and the ever-present search for actionable investment themes.