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This is fast money. Here's what's on tap. The big AI boost AMD booming after OpenAI and Sam Altman talk about another huge deal. The details and what it means or might mean for the rest of the market. Then to the land of the rising sun. Japan's markets also soaring on the backs of of that country's latest elections. How to trade the Nikkei and other global stocks plus retail on sale. What's behind all the discretionary underperformance Today Chartmaster will lay out what he sees coming for treasury yields. And can you hear me now, Hans? Maybe not. Why Verizon investors are a bit gloomy today. Hi everybody, I am not Melissa Lee. She is out today. I'm Brian coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. And on your desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feineman, Dan Nathan and Gaia Dummy. All right, a new week. Same money making markets. Big take, big tech and the S&P 500 popping to new records. The NASDAQ getting within nine points of the rather magical 23,000 level. Now the story of the day, it has to be Advanced micro devices AMD at one point that stock up 3.37percent AMD talking up a deal that could end up with Open air taking a 10% stake in the company. There are still a lot of questions but we also know a lot. So let's dig into what we do know and the reaction. Mackenzie Sagalos in San Francisco with more back. Hey Brian. So OpenAI is becoming the kingmaker of the tech trade today. It's amd. But we have seen this before. Nvidia, Broadcom and Oracle have each added hundreds of billions in market cap within hours off the back of single deal announcements with Open Air. I just sat down with OpenAI Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap and I asked what he would say to critics raising concerns about the circular nature of these partnerships. I think the financing models for these things are going to be unprecedented because the scale of demand for this type of thing is also unprecedented. And that demand is taking center stage here at Dev Day, where some of the 4 million developers in OpenAI's ecosystem will now have the chance to apply to join essentially what amounts to OpenAI's version of the Apple App Store. But for AI, this is Sam Altman betting that this is the moment that ChatGPT becomes more than just a chat bot, opening it up to outside developers, embedding instant checkout and launching a public app directory. Now it is the company's third attempt at an App Store, but this time the economics are baked in. And Brian, interesting guest speaking soon. Do you want to guess who it is at this point with Open Air and this story, it could literally be anybody. I have. It could be Mackenzie Sagalos, could be Bernie Mac. I have no idea. It's, I'm not the secret guest, it's Jony. I've you and I have been talking about OpenAI's hardware ambitions. Sam Altman paid $6.4 billion to bring the Apple the legendary Apple hardware guy in house. He has been Altman has been talking up what his hardware ambitions are for OpenAI basically a consumer facing device for the generative AI age, something we haven't seen before. A family of devices is how he has described it. But this is a closed door session. There is no livestream. I'm going to be in there later today and I will report back. Yeah, because you know, I got to say Mackenzie, your background there a guy on a stage in a sweater, a big background, sort of surprise guests. My gosh, what is it? What does it feel like? Tim Seymour it feels like every day we're getting one of these announcements. It feels like if we had our whiteboard up and we drew our circles and we drew our lines, you know, from OpenAI to Microsoft, but then and video over here, around to Oracle. I mean this is what the street is doing, this is what the investor community is doing. And again it's both sides. It's investors that are running and seemingly chasing, but it's also a Wall street community. It's an analyst Community that's coming up with new ways to, to, to make the multiples make sense. And there's no question that if you think, you know, per gigawatt of demand by what you shook your head like that when I said gigawatt made me happy. Well, but you know, so each one of these per gigawatt opportunities apparently is, is double digit billions of dollars and you can probably map this out through 2032 or whatever for AMD. I think just, you know, just speak more specifically about the validation for the, you know, for the 4150, for their core chip, for their platform, for the software that surrounds it is part of what I think this, this really is. So, you know, I don't know whether you're supposed to rally this thing 30%. I have a position in AMD and I did sell some upside calls today because the ball was extraordinary and I didn't sell it far out. I sold it short term. It just feels to me, guy, and not in a bad. By the way, not in a bad way. We're talking about open air, which is private. It's not a stock. I get it. But you got the guy on stage, you got this sort of the big reveal. You got the App Store. Oh, and Jony, I've. Man, it feels like Apple. Well, maybe it is. Maybe Apple. 15 years ago, 20 years. You know what, you know the gentleman that interview. Unprecedented in terms of this type of event. No, not really unprecedented. I mean you go back 25 or so years and actually there was a precedent for it. So let's not get crazy. The numbers just a lot bigger now. The, all this circular stuff should be concerning, but you know what, you want to look past it. I get it. Jim Cramer made some very positive comments about it earlier today. I'll say this. AMD today traded five times normal volume. I think it traded a quarter of a billion shares. It traded up to the highs that we saw in February of 2024 and gave the majority of it back. That should be a little bit concerning. I think Tim was right to sell upside calls. It's probably not a bad place to take some money off the table in terms of a long. Dan, are we, are we buying? There's no question AI is real. It's going to change the world. It's amazing. We haven't even begun to think what's to come. But is there. How much future earnings are we buying today? Well, you've seen all the, I mean it's like you have to have X amount of hundreds of billions of dollars just to justify the spend of the CapEx that's been, you know, in the last three years or so. And again no one's going to be able to figure that out until we start seeing these revenue models and the monetization models. You know when I look at this AMD the guy's point, the opening tick of the day was the high of the day. The closing tick of the day was the low of the day. So it sold off basically 10% from those highs. The guys also point that was literally to the penny that opening tick of those prior all time highs. Now that's technical stuff, who really cares? The one thing that I would focus on a little bit and to your point Sully is like when you have this sort of announcement and you don't have a lot of visibility to when those revenues are going to be booked. When you think about the margin structure of this company AMD relative to that of Nvidia this is a company that's supposed to have gross margins of 52%. One of the big reasons why Nvidia has been able to enjoy the multiple that it had before it started coming down was because it had a 70% plus margin. This is not something you usually see out of hardware businesses. So does AMD have a software that locks you into their platform? I'm not sure about that. The other thing for amd, they really have to execute here. If they come out and they are not able to deliver a chip that is remotely close to what Nvidia has been doing and OpenAI maybe pulls back from that relationship that's going to be a real problem for this company and they have not executed particularly well. So when I think about these kind of second sources we, we've been talking about competition coming for a very long time. It's here and Nvidia sold off 1% today from an all time high. That's it. I found this structure of this deal just fascinating and I honestly don't fully get it. The idea that they would be giving away 10% of AMD to have the business of 6 gigawatts of, of open air business for the next five years. There's a lot that they haven't told us yet. If you look through the, if you look through the 8K there's a lot of details that are really still out there we don't know. It seemed to me the idea that as AMD stock goes higher then open I can get can exercise the shares. So I don't know what to make of the whole Thing I find the, you know the reaction $66 billion of market cap on a deal you talked about tens of billions, I think was the quote, tens of billions per gigawatt. So let's say 20 billion per gig. That's 120 billion. 66 billion on the stock today. I don't know what to make of the whole thing. And my question to Dan Tim was based on this. Okay, you said gigawatt in this deal. They're going to start with 1 gigawatt. That's about 750,000 homes worth of electricity by the way, folks, the second half of next year, okay, we still don't know where the power is coming from because you know how many new nuclear plants are being built in America right now? Zero. You know how many new natural gas plants are being built in America right now? Zero. There are some expansions going on, but there's no capacity at scale being added. So if we're adding 1 gigawatt next year, Tim, let's say 1 a year, we're buying not only hopes and dreams, but we're buying earnings five plus years down the road. I think, I think that's what the last two weeks or three weeks really with a lot of these deals that have been in the, you know, the hundreds of billions have been about. They have been about the future. They've been about a commitment to spend and they've been about strategic partnerships by the biggest players in the space. I mean I think in the short term what this did for AMD and it's Danny's, he's right to bring up the fact that that Nvidia has competition seemingly that's the headline tells you that it's competition. And yet it didn't, you know, it didn't really trade off at all. Now it's been struggling a little bit around these all time high. But it does indicate that AMD has a greater share of datacenter server share. It does indicate that they have a greater share of the customer wallet based upon the validation they got today. And I think that was really the follow through we got from the street. Yeah, I think Guy, listen, again, we're not talking about open air because they are theoretically a not they're a nonprofit for it's got to be the world's large. It's got to be bigger than every nonprofit in the world ever combined. He said with a wink and a slight grin. I will say this though. At current prices, one does wonder if Nvidia and AMD are going to have to. They're going to ultimately raise their chip prices and that their earnings may be better than we think because they're going to raise costs to meet demand. Because by the way, you have to replace these chips every few years. Every. Well, every six months it seems like. I mean, the cycle is pretty quick, all right, but it's fine. Every few years you're then saying the competition is not coming into space and they can continue to raise prices and the 75% margins that Nvidia enjoys right now are going to be there in perpetuity. I don't believe that to be the case. What I'm saying is. So OpenAI made deals. Let me ask it if we. OpenAI in the last three weeks has made deals with Broadcom, Nvidia, Oracle and Oracle and AMD. But just on the chip side, that's three major competitors. Slash coopetition altogether. You're kind of rounding every. It's like if the jets, the Giants played in the same team is kind of my point. Well, that's probably a bad example. That terrible example. But you get my broader. I'm saying the winner Open AI has chosen, they've blessed the winners. There are a lot of that going around right now. And Intel's being blessed is one of the winners completely tangentially to this entire thing. So, yeah, I mean, they're picking winners and losers and it's their right to do so. But, you know, I guess my point is this. The math gets a little bit odd. Karen brought up the fact that she's somewhat perplexed about it. If Karen is, it means I certainly am. And you look at this and you wonder how long can this circularity continue in terms of giving people money, buying the chips back from them, getting an investment, you know, getting a stake in their company. It all seems a little fugazi to me. There's a lot of concentric circles here too. So we forget that Nvidia. Nvidia is an investor in Core weave. If they didn't come in on the day of that IPO in late March. I mean, the core We've CEO said that deal doesn't get done, then it became a meme stock. And then we see all this multiple expansion that's happened. But think about this. Nvidia is building their own data centers. OpenAI is building their own data centers. So they're all invested in each other. They're all competing with each other. And it just seems like a big mess. And at some point, if you ever do, and this is very different than six to nine Months ago because a lot of folks were saying, okay, maybe there's a slowdown in this Capex and maybe we'll see some sort of digestion. Now they are all interlocked. So if there's one bit of slowdown, it's going to hit the entire tech complex. We're talking about the how bad. Think about this. We have, you know, Supermicro, we have Dell on the memory side, we have Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital. You know, I'm missing one, whatever. The other one is Seagate. You know, I mean, like it just goes on and on and on. It's the power guys, it's the paint guys. Remember we heard Sherwin Williams, they're doing great. All these data centers need to get painted, you know what I mean? Like, so the list is Mohawk for carpet because you want to make it look. I stop. But no, it's. Your point is taken. And by the way, where's the water? Electricity coming? For more on the trade in the markets overall, let's bring in oh Sun Quan. He is the new ish chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo and he is out with his first ever earnings preview note in that role and is kind enough to come on Fast money. Are you sure this is where you want to on the new rule? So I guess the debate this bubble or not, whatever is happening, your models, you run through all these thousands of models all the time. Your models show that earnings may actually be better than many think. Why? Yeah, so we're forecasting about a 4% beat for the upcoming earnings season. So we came up with a pretty interesting model. We essentially looked through all the macro variables that we could find, about 350 macro variables. And we went through this machine learning process to figure out where the sales could be and it's still pointing to a pretty decent beat. So we're forecasting about a 4% beat led by AI semis. Is it a big enough and broad enough beat to justify the rally that we've been seeing the last few months? I think so. I mean, you know, people say the bar is a little too high this time because EPS didn't get cut into earnings as it usually does. But if you look at where consensus number is for Q3, it's down about 4% since the liberation Day. Our view is that tariffs didn't really have much impact in Q3. I think it's more of a Q4 event and into Q1 because companies carry about 65 days of inventory at the end of Q2, which means that since August 7, their pre tariff inventories are going to run out in the middle of October to November. That's not Q3, that's really Q4. So I don't think we have yet to see the real impact of tariffs yet. And if that's the case, I think earnings are going to come in around the liberation. Okay, so earnings good and congratulations. So earnings are going to do better than expected but it's still up. Multiple exceptions, expansion to a large degree. So my question is what is the right multiple in this environment? Because we're probably close to 23 times next year's numbers right here. Yeah, I think it's hard to argue that multiples are going to expand further from here. I think it's really going to be more of a earnings growth story going forward. We're forecasting 11% growth for this year and next followed by another strong 12% growth in 2027. So about you know, low teens returns for the S and P without any multiple growth growth. So can I ask a question? You're in. Get in there. So in your models do you include what's, what do you have for rate cuts? Yeah, so we're forecasting about two more cuts this year and two more next year. So about four which is basically in line with what the market is pricing in. We actually for the S and P overall we came up with a pretty interesting framework called the prism prsm, Profits, rates, sentiment and macro. So those are the four drivers of the equity market that we have identified. If you go through each one, profit is still in an upcycle, rates is getting better because we are in an easing cycle. Sentiment is still neutral. Macro is actually improving too. So for macro we're using growth minus inflation which is actually still negative but getting better. So if you combine all those four, we're still talking about a pretty healthy backdrop for equities overall. So 10 star target of 7200 by year end next year. Does the Federal Reserve matter as much as the AI trade or is this market perfectly priced to a combination of both of these things? I think to Karen's point. Yeah, just worried if one of these doesn't go as planned. Yeah, I think it matters more than than the Fed for broadening. I think the Fed matters. Outside of that, I think it's really more about growth. There was a lot of optimism heading into the FOMC that the Fed might be easing into a reacceleration cycle. That's when we saw really the easing cycle trade happening. Whether it be the Russell 2 or the homebuilders now that we are in an easing cycle officially we're essentially selling the news and rotating back into AI. I think outside of AI I'm not really excited about anything for broadening, for sustained broadening. I think the PMI, the manufacturing PMI has to go above 50 and I don't really see that happening unless rates fall more from here because this has been the most risk sensitive manufacturing cycle in history. And I think the reason why that happened is because it was a housing led downturn in manufacturing. There is some view that the non res side is getting better which is obviously is positive for the PMI cycle. The thing is historically nonres didn't really have an impact on non residential and over the past three years during the downturn of the PMI manufacturing nonrest has been healthy. So even if nonres gets better from here, I think housing ultimately has to get better and for housing to get better rates have to come down. And for rates to come down we need slower growth. So I think that actually will be negative for equities. Oh son Kwon, really appreciate you coming on first ever earnings preview note. Don't be a stranger. Thank you, thank you very much. All right, we've got a news alert coming out of Washington D.C. president Trump making comments on budget negotiations with Democrats and addressing a few other topics as well. Emily Wilkins has more. Emily? Yeah, Brian, it was a newsy moment there in the White House. Well look, first of all there could be a new wrinkle in these negotiations over a government shutdown with Trump telling reporters that he is discussing things with Democrats on health care and that he's got negotiations ongoing with them. And take him to take a listen to what he had to say. We have a negotiation going on right now with the Democrats that could lead to very good things. What kind of are you speaking? And I'm talking about good things with regard to health care. Are you speaking with Democratic leaders? What kind of negotiations? Well, I don't want to say that. I don't want to say that, but we are speaking with the Democrats and some very good things could happen with respect to health care. So a little bit of back and forth there, but remember Senate Democrats are pushing their Republican counterparts to come to some sort of agreement on extending those Affordable Care act tax credits. Now Trump has not specifically said he wants to extend the tax credits, but he did mention that he does want to make some reforms to eliminate waste, fraud and abuse. However, we're now hearing from leading Senate Democrats that they are not in negotiations with Trump. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying in a statement that Trump's claim is not true, but if he's finally ready to work with Democrats will be at the table. And of course, that was just one piece of news that came from the White House. The other one is that the White House is now greenlighting a road, Ambler Access, that will provide more access to copper and to mining. Brian. All right. Emily Wilkins in Washington, D.C. emily, thank you very much, Guy. I quickly ask you this not to go down the political road, but Supreme Court started their term today. They're going to rule on tariffs. Is there a market risk and maybe there's not. Is there a market risk to the Supreme Court ruling that the tariffs are invalid and illegal? And we basically start, we just wipe out eight months of what we've been talking. I don't know if you wipe out eight months. I do think there's a risk associated. You heard whispers of that a couple of weeks ago, and the market actually did sell off on the concerns that, you know, all that money taken in, all the money in the coffers somehow were had to be given back. So if they were to rule in the way you just said, yeah, I think that's a market risk. All right. And just keep an eye, folks, on that thing that is out there and it's called the Supreme Court. All right. Coming up, the shopping drop, why the discretionary sector is lagging, the broader market and some of the names today that stuck out at checkout plus not lovin' app, Lovin' boy, that stock taking a big hit as well. Don't go anywhere fast money back in two. This episode is brought to you by Square. 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Wherever you get your podcasts, we got a news alert for all the Swifties out there. AMC just announcing Taylor Swift's official release of Showgirl this weekend brought in $50 million at the box office globally, 34 million of that was in the United States. AMC shares up slightly after hours. They dropped about 5% during the session, but pretty good numbers. As what, by the way, as one would expect, because everything Taylor Swift does seems to win. I went three times. That's not accurate as a showstopper correction. All right, meantime, moving. I'm going to move right on. It wasn't all sunshine and roses in the stock market. The big retail ETF lost about 2%. Guys throw me off. Some major underperformers included Starbucks, General Motors, home builder Lennar, and the aforementioned carpet maker Mohawk. All down 2% or more in today's market. Karen Feiderman Any macro worries about discretionary? I mean, I guess some, you know, we talk about the labor market getting a little, you know, going the wrong direction, right? So. But I think still enough people are employed. I think we always have this lull right before Christmas, and Christmas isn't even that far away. We're like, oh, I don't think we're going to spend this year. And then Americans always do. Guy, you know, you say, never underestimate the power of Americans to spend. But across the board, it was pretty ugly. For a couple of retailers and some of which I own, that was not fun. Real quick you look at the homebuilders and I'm not bullish. I mean, they've bounced a lot since April, as they should have, but they didn't make the highs they made back in January, number one. Number two, if you think rates are going higher, which I do, it's hard to be bullish. And if you, I think rates are going higher and if you think the unemployment rate is going higher, which I do, it's equally difficult. So I think the home building trade might be a little long in the tooth. You see the president, by the way, Dan, the president came after the homebuilders today, kind of compared them to opec. It was like there's, there's a lot of political stuff that's moving the market around here. Well, I tell you what, I mean, politics aside, I think the discretionary space is in trouble and I could point to any number of names. And if you look at over the last month, we're talking About Deckers down 20%, you're talking about AEO down 16, RH down 20, you name it. And yet then you look at the, the xly, which is the discretionary etf, and you're like, wow, it's actually had a pretty decent month. And part of it is if you look under the hood, that's 20% Amazon, 20% Tesla. We know the run those two stocks have been on. So I just think that the marginal dollar to spend for discretionary, for most consumers in this country, they're either tapped out or they already have it. If you think about the pent up demand that we had in a lot of these athleisure sectors and a lot of these places, and you're seeing it in hospitality, you're seeing it in restaurants, you're seeing it in some of these apparel names, and you're seeing it really across the housing space. So as much as the rest of the economy, if you look at industrials and banks and health care, which has gotten a lot of life in the last two weeks, those sectors look great. I don't think you want to be indiscretionary. And I don't think we've even begun to really hear about the consumer falling apart. Yeah. President Trump saying that the homebuilders sitting on 2 million empty lots and compared them to OPEC as a group just kind of banding together. All right, coming up, no love for ol app Lovin shares getting hit after reports of an SEC probe. Regulators may be watching latest on that story. You're watching Fast Money live. We're at the Nasdaq Market site. We're back right after this. It's Cybersecurity awareness month and LifeLock is here with tips to help protect your identity use strong passwords, set up multi factor authentication and report phishing scams. And for comprehensive identity protection, LifeLock is your best choice. LifeLock alerts you to suspicious uses of your personal information and also fixes identity theft, guaranteed or your money back. Stay smart, stay safe and stay protected with a 30 day free trial@lifelock.com Specialoffer terms apply. Julia Boorstin sits down with Thrive Global Founder and CEO Arianna Huffington. What advice would you give to and young people now trying to navigate this crazy world? My advice is to pick a time at the end of the day that you declare as the end of your working day. Because let's face it, there is no end to our working day. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. Listen now, wherever you get your podcasts. Ooh, you all right? I think that's good. Something for lunch. I think that's the appropriate sound to make when a Stock is down 14% as AppLovin is right now, because the company is being probed, prodded, probed by the SEC over its data collection practices. Christina Parts and Evil is has more I think Oof is an appropriate noise to make here. Oof because the FCC is specifically looking at whether App Loving violated service agreements with platform partners to push more targeted ads to consumers, essentially like tracking users without their knowledge across different websites and apps. I wonder how many companies do that. But this investigation reportedly stems from a whistleblower complaint filed earlier this year, according to Bloomberg, and some negative short seller reports as well. But keep in mind, this is a company just last month Applovin was added to the S&P 500. The stock has been on a roll, up 80% this year after surging more than 700% just in 2024. Morgan Stanley I was just reading a quick note. They recently hiked their price target to 750 from it was initially $400 or 458, calling the company's self serve ad tool launch a major catalyst. This tool went live just five days ago. The company also expanded internationally ahead of schedule in September. So Wall street really loves this name because of App Loving's AI powered ad platform Axon, which delivers improved targeting for brands. And that's what a lot of these sell side reports talk about. But App Loving says today it regularly engages with regulators and addresses inquiries in the ordinary course and that SEC Probes don't always necessarily result in enforcement actions. But you can see the stock is down. The news is enough to really break the momentum that we are seeing just over the last little while. The stock fell 14% today. It's down another 6% now. And I guess Guy Dami, this is the part of the show where you remind the viewers that we have no fricking idea how this is going to end up. None whatsoever. And you know, the bull case is, wait a second, you know, if they were doing something untoward and nefarious or whatever, I mean they probably would have gotten bounced by Apple, Google, long time ago. And you know, this is just a normal, I think investigation. It probably happens from time to time. There are a lot of reasons to be bearish. This company valuation is one of them. And this is sell the news. Because you know what, we don't want to get sort of caught on the wrong side. But it's just a stock that people will say, I sold the stock $350 ago waiting for news like this. And then you get in, it's $350 higher. So I don't think you buy it here. But there's going to be an opportunity for sure. Yeah, short reports and whistleblowers. That's not great news no matter what. And we always say this, there's thousands of stocks out there. You don't need to buy the one that's got an SEC investigation. But one thing I'll say is like whatever they're doing, they were doing it right this year. They saw 100% earnings growth and 10%, 10 points in their gross margins up 75% to 85% to this year. Earnings growing, like I said, 100%, sales reaccelerating, that sort of thing. So you know, this is one of the ones that could find itself in the penalty box for a while. But if the company is, you know, if they're able to articulate why they've seen that growth and maybe it is this powered Axon, you know, that sort of thing, who knows? I mean it's one of these companies that I think most market participants don't know a whole heck of a lot anyway, so. Well, I will say this. The stock is down 14% today and 6% overnight, Christina, very quickly. But it was $138 stock a year ago. It's now 557 to Dan's point. Stocks. Yeah, but the margins was a big part of the story. And the fact that they're going from being a gaming only advertiser to now an e commerce giant and maybe benefiting from air in the future because so many of these platforms don't monetize ads just yet. But SEC probes are never a good thing. A lot of people but to the up to oh, sounds are getting stranger. That was that was a different I thought was a different sound. Well, I was the sound of a stock that's gone from 187 to 5 sound of a yawn any year. Okay. Coming up, the sound of a yawn. Plus charting the next move in yields, what Carter Worth is seeing for Treasuries and how he is playing out his prediction. The details Carter Worth next. All right. Welcome back. Let's get another check on how markets finished the day. The S and P and the Nasdaq both closing at new record highs. The NASDAQ up 7/10 of 1/1%, 161 points. The Dow was down just a touch. Actually in video was pretty much most of that decline. But the S and P, the Nasdaq did make gains. Tesla was higher. The EV maker posting a teaser video suggesting it could reveal a new car tomorrow. Analysts thinking could be the next generation roadster that Elon Musk has been promising for years or even a long awaited mass market model in the meantime. Market model iteration market model meantime. Stocks in Japan also popping after the country's latest election. The Nikkei at new record highs. The yen also higher. And the country electing its first ever female prime minister. And some after hours action. Shares of Bmaker beer maker Constellation higher after reporting a beat on both the top and bottom line. That stock up 3 1/2 percent. In the meantime, U.S. treasury yields, bond yields, they're moving up to guy's point, not down. As the government shutdown continues. Tenure, it's been trending downward since really the beginning of the year. The question now though is where are yields headed? Spring into chartmaster Carter Worth tell us his thoughts Because Carter, a lot of people that borrow money maybe if you're out there and you you want to buy a home, this is the chart you probably need to be watching. Truth and where are they headed? I guess anybody's guess. But I'm certainly happy to give you my guess. Let's go right to the charts. 2 year, 5 year, 10 year and 30. So one way to draw the lines, that's not a good setup. My hunch is we break lower here which is yields two years lower. A second iteration on the two year another way to draw the lines that has all the Elements of a topping out formation. Again I'm in the lower yields camp at the two year end of the curve. Look at five year lines are very similar. So you see here too we're about to, I believe we will break trend here going back to the 2020 low. A second iteration on the five year is similar to the two year. Again this is what my eye sees. Others might see it differently. Let's go to the 10. The 10 is the same circumstance flirting with a break in trend that's been in effect since the COVID low. Essentially same lines again on the second iteration topping out formation and then the 30 year. The only one that's a bond. The others are all notes. Of course we have this perfect double top which you see there. And again we're just right on the cusp of a breach. Final chart of the package here. That's not a good setup. I'm a buyer of bonds. A buyer of bonds. It's interesting Karen, because you asked the point earlier of Osun about the Federal Reserve and rates and one, you know, we hear, people hear, oh, the Fed's going to cut rates. So I think the automatic assumption is that borrowing costs are going to go down, not up the charts. And what guy was saying earlier that has not been the case. What do you see happening? Well, one thing popped in my head that if the treasury wants to issue shorter maturities to the extent that they're going down this much, that helps about that. We don't see inflation preventing the Fed from cutting. So I don't know. That was good. I'm sort of, I don't know. I think if we see growth, I think we're going to see higher yields. Yeah, I mean there's some saying that, you know, we might have seen some of the low prints in inflation, whether CPI or PC, we might not be able to see them for a while. The government stage shut down. But to Tim's point earlier about a consumer that's pretty tapped, I mean we're in an environment where, you know, we've seen energy prices rip because of this data center demand. Well, no, I mean just. And then we have inflation, you know, there's a lot of tariff impacts, that sort of thing. So it could be a situation where the Fed is further tied because if the labor market is weakening and then you have all these other knock on effects but inflation is going higher, you might not see yields go too much lower. Now on the charts that Carter just laid out, they look bearish. If you tell me that's AMD I'm selling it, you know, I mean, but it's a tough one to do as, as it relates to yields. I hate talking about currencies because I'm not going to lie. I don't know. It's not my. I don't believe that. It's not my jam. It's not my jam. But I do, I do know this, that when you add more something, things tend to go down in price. And I'm watching the dollar go down against global major currencies about 10% this year. Are we not talking about the dollar enough? Well, the dollar stabilized in the last month and a half. And in fact, after a 10% move down and being maybe one of the most crowded trades out there was a weak dollar trade. It's not only stabilized, but, but, you know, if some of the news flow that we're getting around the deficit is better now. I think the path of the dollar, and I think President Trump and the White House would like to see the dollar lower. I think they're. They might even talk about that, actually. But, you know, I do think that has been something that have caught people by surprise. The dollar has been, I would say artificially or I would say temporarily. It's not artificial, but it's a trading range that we've been in and it's not going straight down. Down. If the deficit numbers get better, that's one thing. If you look at the rest of the world, this is what it's always been about. Central bank differentials. I'm not sure that the central bank differentials are as wide. In other words, in favor of a weaker the Fed than, say, the ECB boj. It's anybody's guess. And again that the news overnight tells you, I think that the yen is probably going to continue to weaken, too. We could get into that conversation. Well, it's been interesting to watch Japanese yields come up. Mm. Will they ever get to a point where they're within sniffing distance? One of our shields. You love the band Kansas, by the way. I mean, you know, we could. How long to the point of no Return? It's a lousy off the album. Point of no return coming up. A big week for bitcoin. Hitting a fresh record today. The next move in the space and how your next guest is playing crypto in general. A lot more to do. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money back Into. All right. Welcome back to Fast Money. Bitcoin hitting a new record today, trading above 126,000. It's not there right now at 1:25,019 but over 126 earlier today. The latest rip higher coming as investors look for more public market access to crypto, sparking a slew of of new digital asset. Treasury companies for more on that spring and Terra Capital general partner Cosmo Jiang. Cosmo, thanks for joining us. Listen, Galaxy Digital Mike, Novogratz Co. Just announcing more trading on their platform today. Robinhood, we know what they've done. How much has this, this, this opening of access mattered to the price of crypto generally? Oh, this year is all about so many headwinds becoming tailwinds for crypto, especially around this idea of equity investors embracing digital assets in a big way. We've seen the flows really start to pour in. Right. From the ETF perspective. The ETF inflows to the Bitcoin ETFs have now exceeded the amount that's coming to the NASDAQ since launch, which is pretty crazy to think about. Can you. Okay, that sounded important. Can you repeat that again? Total inflows in the Bitcoin ETF since launch have exceeded that into the qqq, into the nasdaq. That's the amount of overwhelming demand there is. I mean, not insane crazy, but that's a hell of a stat. I'm going to steal that. Isn't that crazy? Right? And we're now seeing IBIT, which BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is now approaching $100 billion of assets alone. It's now BlackRock's most profitable ETF. Is the, the argument that Bitcoin deserves a valuation, maybe not of the gold market, which I think is now north of $22 trillion, but somewhere closer to where it is now. Which is why you can make an argument that Bitcoin 100,000 should actually be half a million dollars a coin. I'd argue Bitcoin is a better version of gold because it's digital, it's easy to transport, it's cheaper to transact, it's global, it's permissionless, you don't need to carry around a heavy rock with you or you can lose it, you can lose your USB drive. Right. Luckily, we have a lot of investments in custody providers that can make it easy for you to store your bitcoin. But yeah, if you believe that this could be a better version of gold, I mean, we're going from 2 trillion to 22 trillion to 22 trillion plus. So we could see 10x plus upside from here. So have all the bitcoin lovers already bought in? I mean, I think that's all stocks go up because there are more buyers than sellers or there's more buying pressure. Okay, so do you think there's still people out there that are like, oh Karen, I just don't know. Should I buy bitcoin? I'm on the fence. Do those fence sitters still exist? Oh yeah, absolutely. Brian, There was a Bank of America survey that was published actually a couple of years ago. Of course they do you any issues? Sorry. Please go ahead. Kazma. Yeah, it seems crazy to think because all of us around this table have started to really get it, but there's a Bank of America survey from a few weeks ago that showed more than 60% of investors still own 0% exposure to digital assets. That's quite a lot. And so the idea that digital assets still is too late in the game isn't true if most people don't own it. So what about some of the other digital assets? Right. We saw Ethereum go nuts, Solana go nuts assets. Do you think there's more opportunity there than Bitcoin, which is sort of like, you know, your father's Oldsmobile digital asset? I think that's exactly right. So from our perspective, everything that's happened over the last few years has all about been legitimizing bitcoin and now I think a lot of people get it. The next step and really what Congress legislation is really enabling is for the rest of the digital assets to really have their place. Ethereum, Solana, these things are large tech platforms that are now growing at a rapid pace. And we believe Solana is on pace to be what could be the next generation mega cap tech company Cosmo. First of all, congrats on Pantera's position with some of these portfolio companies that have just been stratospheric in the public market. So you guys have done an incredible job. How about stablecoins and how about trading at a multiple of the underlying asset? That's some part of this that to me seems really not going to use the bubble term. It just doesn't make sense to me. And should these things be trading closer to Napoleon? Well, so the reality is that some of these digital asset treasury companies are actually pretty interesting structures when you think about it. It's really a difference between passive and active management. Passive, you can go out and buy a spot etf, it's great, it does what you need it to do. But if you want an active manager to add value, to acquire assets in a constructive way, to do staking, to interact with defi, that's worth something and it generates excess yield. And that's why some of these DATs can trade above one. Time spoke. Well, it has been to Tim's point, a heck of a run. Cosmo, we're glad you're here to lay it out. Thank you very much. Appreciate that me. All right, coming up, we're going to go from crypto to telecom because Verizon has a new CEO. He is the former head of PayPal. He's taking the reins. We'll talk about what that might mean for the stock and maybe why there was change at all. We're back right after this. Nasdaq and S and P may have hit a new record, but Verizon not part of it. That stock fell 5% today. They announced, I think it was a surprise C suite shake up. CEO Hans Vestberg stepping down after seven years in charge. He is being replaced by former PayPal CEO Dan Schulman. Of course, been kind of a choppy year for Verizon investors. Stock is up this year, but it's only up about 3%. It's got a $20 billion deal to buy Frontier Communications that's expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. Anybody else kind of taken aback by this? It's a big company to have kind of a surprise CEO change. Well, it's, it's certainly, let's talk about telcos in general. First of all, it's been an incredible run back from oblivion for AT&T and Verizon and it's been a function of them being able to pay down debt. It's been a function of the sector itself not being so predatory. Meanwhile, T Mobile goes to all time highs almost every day. So the change in the CEO certainly is an attempt to bring, I think a more modern twist to a story that really does have opportunities in the world we live in today. But this was a surprise to the market, Verizon to me, since Tim's right. I mean, the stock had a huge move from 34 to 47, almost in a straight line. But we've been flatlining and rolling over. It feels to me and I know this is a field thing, but 37, which is a level we traded down to I want to say in October of last year, that's where I think it's destined to trade. Then maybe find some place there. But, but to Tim's point, T Mobile, which has sold off a little bit, that's the best place to be in the space. All right. Still wish we get a little more information around this, but we'll see. All right. Up next, it is your final trades. All right, Final trade time. Tim Seymour, kick it off. Ryan is it's always so good to have you and tonight was just another example of that. Constellation Energy, I think you've got a lot of the same trends we talked about, but in a utility company with nuclear and in AI. Karen yes, I'm going to agree with Timmy for my final trade. I love Lisa sue, but I think this reaction in AMD was sort of overdone. I'll be looking to sell some upside calls against the stock. Speaking of overdone, I think this Verizon 5% on a management change, a CEO change like that, I think that's a little bit all right. The radio audience enjoyed this this evening. Brian, I know you like to give them a shout out from time to time, and it is lovely having you here. Remember that interview you did with EQT a while back? Kobe Rice back on its horse? Brian, EQT is your final trade. Sure, I like it. You got Joe Dominguez, Toms River, New Jersey local for Constellation Energy. Thanks for watching Mad Money Starts Now. 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