← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fast Money 11/25/25
00:43:41
Listen to our traders take you behind the money...how to play the volatility...pops and drops and the movers you missed. Fast Money Disclaimer
Loading summary
Transcript196 lines
- [00:00]
A
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. EDWARD jones, member, SIPC At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, the consumer coming back to life. We're just days away from a big Black Friday in the discretionary sector, shrugging off some weak data to help power the S and P. What we are seeing out of retail. With the countdown to Christmas ticking lower and the latest read into data center demand, the trade is accelerating. But can the power players keep up? We'll talk to the CEO of a data center operator to find out the real problem facing the space. And later down the move after reporting results binging on some Netflix technicals and a $50 billion robotics company surging the name of the details straight ahead. I'm mostly coming to you live from studio. Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour Carter with Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We begin with fresh signs of life in the consumer trade just three days before Black Friday. Discretionary stocks, the second best performing sector today, now up nearly 4% on the week even as we got disappointing retail sales and confidence data this morning. Today is leading coming from all parts of spending map, Chipotle, Ralph Lauren, Williams, Sonoma, Lulu and Home Depot all seeing big gains. And then there are outsized moves today in Abercrombie and Fitch up 38%, Kohl's soaring 43% and Best Buy closing 5% higher. Lots of folks replacing apparently their video game consoles, laptops and cell phones. Check out the xrt, the retail ETF closing out its best day in more than eight months and it couldn't have come at a better time for holiday shopping season hopes. With less than one month left, the bell, it is in the countdown to Christmas. Have we been too quick to stick a proverbial fork in the consumer?
- [02:27]
B
Oh, that's a jiggle guy.
- [02:29]
A
Yeah. Jingle bells, sleigh bells.
- [02:31]
B
Because we're in the window now. Monday is December 1st.
- [02:34]
A
I know, it's crazy, right?
- [02:35]
B
Holiday season. Look at me.
- [02:36]
C
Dft. Excuse me, I.
- [02:39]
B
Forget it. I've forgotten. You know, we say all the time on the show, Never underestimate the U.S. consumers want to spend. They'll spend under just about every circumstance. And you're starting to see numbers that support it. I will say though, it's clear the have and the have nots in the space. And I think Carter can speak to this. You know, the fact that Wal Mart's been at the same price now for months suggests to me we're about to take the next leg higher. One of the things I say all the time is the market does not give you this much time to sell the highs, which in this case means we're probably going higher. TJ Maxx, we've talked about forever. Lower left, upper right. That continues to work. Maybe Target getting off the mat for a trade here could finally happen. I'll say this. Costco, out of all of them might have held a very important level. That stock has not bounced in a while. That might be a place to look.
- [03:24]
A
Look at Guy playing technical analyst.
- [03:26]
D
Wa.
- [03:27]
A
Do you feel you served Carter?
- [03:28]
E
Never.
- [03:29]
B
I mentioned his name, sir.
- [03:31]
E
Available to all right now. The question is how you interpret them. But anyway, I think properly done. Meaning, is this stock in a position to break out having been rangebound for the better part of a year? Yes, but I think if you look at the stocks that were cited as we talked about what came to life today, they have one common feature. They're all huge laggards. Right? So the xrt, this is a little bit of people may be moving out of some of the high flyers and trying to catch a bid in something that's been beaten up. Restaurants, as we know, are making 15 year relative lows to the S and P a lot of damage done. So I'm not sure I'd read that much into it. Remember, the XRT itself is still below where it was in 2021. I mean, that's bad stuff.
- [04:12]
A
Or maybe we just wrote off the consumer too too soon. I mean, it's not just xrt, it's as we mentioned, we also had, for instance, travel stocks, they were higher. Restaurant stocks or anything consumer facing was higher today.
- [04:26]
C
And that's the point is what is the consumer spending their money on? And I'm a broken record on this stuff. I don't, you know, not me. Guy doesn't need another pair of Crocs. He doesn't need another pair of Birkenstocks. He doesn't need another Lululemon outfit. But I do think we need to travel. I do think we're going to travel. I do think there are parts of the services, hotel travel that I think was overdone. I think the airlines in with the GDP updates we're getting in the sense we have on the economy is I want to own airline stocks, especially stocks that have invested just like Wal Mart airlines have invested in technology. Airlines are running at better margins and better efficiencies. So I like the travel trade. I think this is the proverbial, whatever kind of animal you want to call this of a bounce. I think that's what you're getting in some of these highest profile brand discretionary names. I'll sell them to somebody else.
- [05:14]
F
Yeah. You know, it's interesting that Nike had a great day today. Right. And sold off a lot. And this is on a day where Tim Sticks really reported a mixed quarter. There a lot of weakness in Foot Locker, which I think is kind of interesting. So when you kind of look at that on two sides of the coin, brands can do okay. But some of the weaker like outlets, like a footlocker is probably weighing things down a little bit. The other thing about Nike is like coming up is a year we're going to have the Olympics, we're going to have the World Cup. This is really, I mean the stock usually trades well into these sorts of events. But I know take, you know, I think you had to look at some of these brands that didn't rally. Best Buy had a good day today. Yeah, like, you know, Dick's in. So I think investors are getting a bit more discerning about what are some of these plays into the holidays but also where the turnaround is really working.
- [05:58]
C
By the way, we like disclosures on the show. So I just, I'm not long. Dick's. Dan must be concerned about us.
- [06:04]
F
No, I just think it's really interesting. We saw, we saw Best Buy, we saw this and obviously Dick's is trying to turn around this Foot Locker business and you know, Nike's acting. Well, Foot Locker and Dick's are not.
- [06:14]
E
And I'm in the same boat as Puma Adidas. They're all, you know, down and to the right and are struggling. So it's more, I don't think it's idiosyncratic to Nike. It's just a general high end sneaker or famous sneaker brand problem.
- [06:26]
A
Remember last night we had Laksh gone apartheid on from Unicus Research. And she talked about consumer spending and that the consumer, even as negative as she was in the longer term in terms of the credit for consumers, she believed the consumer would spend no matter what percentage. Because you still want to give Christmas.
- [06:42]
C
Spend for the next two months.
- [06:44]
A
Right, Right.
- [06:44]
C
Is that a reason to go buy these stocks, guy?
- [06:46]
A
Yeah. Is it?
- [06:50]
C
Sorry, Sorry, Mel.
- [06:52]
A
Is it? Well, you don't think.
- [06:53]
G
I don't think so.
- [06:55]
A
For a trade.
- [06:56]
B
For a trade? Well, I'd say Wal Mart for a trade. I think for an investment as well, I'll say I'll throw one at you. Lululemon, which has been sort of making this rounded bottom now for a while. They report on December 4th, which I believe is next Thursday. I think that sets up well because if they say anything even remotely positive, given the sell off, they haven't given the basically the unanimous disdain for this name that stock, a rally easy 15, 20%. So lululent earnings looks good to me.
- [07:23]
F
You know, it's interesting taking that conversation last night. I mean she talked a lot about buy now, pay later. You know, Karna went public earlier this year, can't get out of its own way. It almost immediately broke its IPO price and is found new lows almost every day. And then a firm is also not traded particularly well. I just thought those trades should be kind of associated, one versus the other. And the one name we haven't even talked about is Tim's Apple. I mean when you think about Apple, it's the ultimate consumer trade. And I'm not so sure it's discretionary anymore. Right. There's a little of the utilitarian nature of it. And they probably get $200 billion in sales here in the US alone.
- [07:59]
C
We like disclosures on the show. So full disclosure. I am actually long Apple, so I. Whether it is because it's a discretionary purchase that there's always another dollar for or not, I think the story around Apple is it's under owned. I think it is defensive and I do think that rotation that we talked about on the OT is what you're seeing also in mega cap tech land there.
- [08:20]
A
There's also a narrative in the past, at least during upgrade cycles that for, you know, for Christmas you often buy what, a new phone, a pair of ipods, you know, slippers. Right. No, when Apple products. Oh, so that are expensive and you might not buy other things. Follow with me, Tim.
- [08:35]
C
So yeah, there's no question that the, the crowding out of say the spend of the Wallet certainly has favored electronics and in some sense this is maybe a good tell for Best Buy. I just, I know that the holiday season takes up such a disproportionate amount of mindshare and certainly its importance to the retailers is critical. I think you're going to see it solid, a solid holiday season, but that's not a reason to go buy some of these stocks.
- [09:02]
A
Wal Mart, what do you see here for Wal Mart versus Target?
- [09:06]
E
Well, it's, that's the endless. There's nothing new to say. Let's just say that one is prospering, one is struggling. Right. And I would just stay away from the thing that's struggling. Bottoms take time. Right. And so there is no indication that the stock is bottoming. But if you want to. And Guy mentioned Lululemon, textbook bearish to bullish reversal by is Capri. That's Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo Versace really beaten up name at five six year lows and has all the elements of a proper term.
- [09:35]
A
All right, for more on consumers and the retail trade, let's bring in Oliver Chen, senior retail analyst at TD Cowan. Oliver, great to have you with us. It seems like all retailers right now are talking about being consumers being choiceful. So who benefits from that sort of ongoing theme in the retail sector of a choiceful consumer?
- [09:58]
G
Yeah, Melissa, happy holidays. We're excited about Walmart. Walmart has consumers looking for value in everyday low prices. Walmart's also capturing that high household income shopper as well. And the technology story at Walmart significant because of digital advertising as well as the marketplace. So lots to love about what Walmart is doing and value remains very important. The shoppers definitely being choiceful. The shoppers are looking for joy, but they're struggling and consumer confidence is very mixed. We're also seeing a lot of bifurcation, meaning intense pressure at the middle and low end and a much stronger higher household income customer. And that higher income customer is holding up the economy as well as spending. Costco is another idea that we like as well. And Levi's and denim and what's happening with classics with the twist. That's working too.
- [10:51]
B
Oliver, seems like valuation finally caught up to Costco six or so months ago because the stock is not performing on what's been a pretty good tape. Is it an inflection point here for Costco? Can you get your arms around the valuation?
- [11:05]
G
Yeah, we're excited about what's ahead with Costco, particularly because they can do more with technology such as adding more features to the marketplace and Taking better advantage of E commerce. We also think this is a resilient business model that's very vertically integrated with global expansion. And in many ways, it's not a retailer. It's a renewal model in terms of the membership income. And it has iconic brands such as Kirkland, where people are trading into these brands looking for tremendous value. So out of 44 times P E, it's expensive, but worth it, given that we view the comps and the traffic to be industry leading and for that to continue. And this thing can get as high as 50 times plus in terms of price to earnings ratio. So bottom line, expensive, but worth it. And it's an iconic membership model with a lot of stickiness given 93% renewal rates.
- [11:57]
A
Can you walk us through what you think will be the cadence of promotions this holiday season? It does seem like it's been a prolonged Black Friday period. It's probably a week, not just a day of Black Friday sales. Are we to expect more promotions as we go on, or are they sort of laying it all out there upfront, hoping that consumers will lock in their purchases early?
- [12:20]
G
Yeah, Melissa, it's as much as three to four weeks this year and it's more like Black November in terms of what's happening versus just Black Friday. So a lot of the deals are planned. It's less panic, more planning in terms of what's happening with both shoppers and retailers. So we're seeing clearer deals at 20 to 50% off from really sharp opening price points. And retailers have done a good job managing inventories more tightly. It was a more panic situation last year. Bottom line is things have started earlier with Amazon and Amazon Prime. So Black Friday multiple weeks, but we still should have excitement on Friday and some incrementality, but the deals have started now. There's a little less dramatic excitement with stampedes in the past versus a much more relaxed Omni kind of experience this year and going and ongoing.
- [13:14]
C
Hey, Oliver. Tim. Like the stash, by the way. So high end is great, the low end not so good. What do we do with some of these iconic brands that seem like they're somewhere in the middle? And again, whether you're talking about a retailer like a Best Buy or a Home Depot, or you're talking about a discretionary apparel item, whether it's. We spend a lot of time on Lulu, but there are brands out there that are seen as middle to upper middle. What's going on in that space?
- [13:40]
G
Yeah, Tim, today we saw a big move in Kohl's and that's A very middle income retailer. So what's been happening is better than feared results, meaning less negative results are really driving stocks higher. That's something we're watching. Although we still expect negative trends at Kohl's, which has persisted for many years and we're watching negative comps at Target. There's a difference between a great company versus a great stock and expectations are fairly low. The middle income consumer is getting pressured by interest rates, consumer confidence, unemployment and youth, youth confidence as well. So it's a tougher place to be. That doesn't mean you can't make money on a better than feared scenario. But we have hold ratings on a lot of these stocks, including Kohl's, including Macy's, where the middle has been a tougher place to be.
- [14:30]
A
What happens to Target then Oliver, in your view?
- [14:34]
G
Yeah. What Target really needs to do is continue to move forward with technology, bring a lot more joy into shopping, meaning innovating their private brands and Target. But critically Home, Home has been very negative over negative 5 to 7% and the home category has tons of volatility and they need to adjust their supply chain to offer lots of speed there. So Target can do it and we all love it. And I was there yesterday and I bought plenty of things there. But Target needs to get shoppers, needs to get more traffic and needs to invest properly in its supply chain to drive speed across the manufacturing and merchandising as well as inventory management and also in stock levels. So there's a lot of work to do. They're going to be spending more on Capex next year and they're also going to continue to perfect improving their in stock levels and really interjecting that with great merchandising. On the other hand, Walmart is seeing growth in their apparel and they're doing a nice job with adding luxury brands such as Hermes and others on the marketplace. You can get those as well as offering like a core great grocery product too. So it's a tale of two different strategies. Tech and AI is playing a bigger role in Walmart in part because they started this journey five to ten years ago with Doug McMillan.
- [15:52]
B
Oliver, Mel had another question for you but she was sort of shy to ask where did you do your undergraduate work?
- [15:59]
G
Georgetown. Hoya Saxa and I love him.
- [16:03]
E
That's beautiful.
- [16:04]
A
That's what you wanted to ask him? I thought you were.
- [16:06]
F
I didn't ask him.
- [16:08]
B
I had a question for Oliver. I didn't know.
- [16:10]
A
Oliver, it's always great to see you. Thank you.
- [16:12]
C
Oh yes.
- [16:13]
A
Have a great Day, Thanksgiving.
- [16:14]
G
Have a great Black Friday.
- [16:16]
A
Oliver Chen, that's what you wanted to ask?
- [16:20]
B
Well, no, we asked him my other questions about Costco and things.
- [16:24]
C
I thought it was a great question and I'm sure there's some consumer context in that somehow.
- [16:28]
A
Is there? Is that the solution in your view for a Target to improve the stuff, make sure the stuff that they sell is in stock, make sure the stuff is a little bit hipper or do they need to do as Jerry Storch said, have better groceries?
- [16:41]
C
Yes, they need to get, they need to get people into the stores. There needs to be some perception of value there and that's what's working for Wal Mart. I don't that Target thing, it was a nice gimmick but ultimately I think the merchandise mix is still needs to favor groceries even though the high margin stuff is where they used to be.
- [17:01]
E
I mean, look, I mean here's the thing. Think that everything that's known and knowable from the wonderful analyst that was on to all this and all of us is out there in the marketplace. People aren't buying it. The only way a stock starts to stop going down is someone with big money starts to buy it and it bases and bottoms and takes a lot of and it cures and heals and then turns up. It's just not the case. It's just there's no premise or thesis to say today's the day I buy it because it's cheap.
- [17:27]
B
In the game of Wal Mart versus it's still Wal Mart. Might I get it? Target can bounce it bounce today but I think Wal Mart setting for another leg higher regardless of valuation. It's Wal Mart to me moms.
- [17:38]
A
All right, let's get to Dallas here. Higher in the after hour session by about 2%. Despite missing top line estimates, the company forecasting sales will Drive a strong Q4. The conference call kicking off in the last hour, our Christina Parks nebulous. Got the numbers Christina. It's a perfect segue because AI was the big focus and Dell's especially when Dell raised its AI guidance. The CFO saying on the call they're now targeting roughly $25 billion in AI shipments, up from 20 billion. He said their customer base continues to broaden with expansion across new Neo Clouds, Tier 2 service providers and sovereigns as well. Their five year quarter pipeline continues to grow sequentially. He said that a few times five quarters. Dell also plans to ship nearly as much in Q4 as they did all of last year. So really speaks to that AI now on those memory Cost concerns we've been tracking management did address this head on. The CFO said, quote, we're in a very unique time. It's unprecedented. We have not seen cost move at this rate, at the rate that we've seen. He also noted it's not just dram, which is dynamic memory, it's NAND hard drives, leading edge nodes across the semiconductor network. His take though, demand is still way ahead of supply so of course that is going to hurt some margins on the PC side. He said they still haven't completed the Windows 11 refresh cycle, so there's still, quote, Runway for conversion versions ahead. Unfortunately, I did not go to Georgetown.
- [19:00]
C
We still love you.
- [19:01]
A
Me neither. Christina, thank you. Thanks, Christina.
- [19:04]
B
Parts hard getting in when you applied, Mel. I'm sorry, you still bitter about that?
- [19:08]
A
Didn't apply. Anyway, this is great news for the trade, right Dan?
- [19:13]
F
I don't know. I mean, you know, the guidance was fine and when you think about the margin pressure they're going to have and you also think about, you know, Kate park just mentioned the Neo clouds. Okay, so Core Weave is a big customer of theirs. Like, you know, if there is some thing lurking out there, whether it's Oracle, who's probably a big buyer of Dell, you know, these debt laden companies who can only expand, right, by raising more debt and giving orders to companies like Dell. I mean at some point these orders are going to probably have to slow down a bit because there's only going to be so much ability for these sorts of companies to continue to spend this way. So you know, Dell is low on the pecking order if you think about it from an ability to kind of monetize this, they have 20% gross margins or something and they're banging up against a supermicro that has half of that. So again, the stock broke out a couple of months ago, it gave it all back, was down 30% from those highs. It can't even get going on this guidance. I know, it's just in the aftermarket here. Let's just see though what investors think tomorrow. Especially if Oracle can't get out of its way. Core, we can't get out of its own way.
- [20:19]
A
So that's a big question. Are these orders, you know, the pipeline, is that real given, you know, the debt that has to be issued in order to purchase these servers?
- [20:27]
B
We're going to find out. But if you believe their fourth, their fourth quarter guide, their full year guide, effectively this was the third quarter, that revenue guide is pretty good and it's on valuation, it is inexpensive and it is sold off considerably since that little bit of a double top. So Dan's right, it should be higher, but I actually think it can go higher off this quarter.
- [20:47]
E
So you covered all of it. The double top, the lackluster performance. It's what a pair of twos is, right? Meaning it's not a big bet long, it's not a big bet short. Sometimes you just leave them alone. That's what I would say. Dell is here.
- [20:59]
G
Yeah.
- [20:59]
A
Would you do that to leave it alone?
- [21:01]
C
I'm not dying to run in and get it. I do think that some of these memory costs are overblown and I do think that the valuation makes it attractive enough and I'm the five cent technical guy next to the hero. But you know, it has held this 200 day. A lot of stocks are bouncing off of that and at least for a trade there's something there.
- [21:20]
A
Coming up binging on some technicals with the Chartmaster sees in store for Netflix and where the streaming giant heads from here plus Zoom and higher the strong sales and demand for AI tools lifting shares of Zoom. How the latest trends in hybrid work are impacting that name. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money's back into.
- [21:39]
C
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc.
- [21:49]
A
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu cash flow crunch on Deck Small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a be. With flexible draws, transparent pricing and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today@ondeck.com funds could be available as soon as tomorrow depending on certain loan attributes. Your business loan may be issued by Ondeck or Celtic Bank. Ondeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. Black Friday More like Black Friday Shop the DSW Black Friday sale and take 30% off almost all the shoes, accessories and giftable goodies we've got at dsw.com/30% off just about every regular price item at your DSW store. Score shoes that get you and everyone on your list at prices that get your budget. So carpe the deal, head to Designer Shoe Warehouse and get that gift list done. DSW Let us surprise you. Welcome back to Fast Money Netflix has slipped nearly 9% in just the last week and is now down north of 13% over the last two months. But the chartmaster says the streamer could soon be seeing some gains. So what do you see in the charts?
- [23:17]
E
Well, let's get right to it. So we have three charts and the question is there's two types of weakness. Weakness to take advantage of and weakness to stay away from. That would be Target, but in this case, here's the first of three charts. No drawings, no lines, no annotations. Let's put some on. Second iteration. This is a very well defined trend line and as one can see, it has come down to this trend line repeatedly and bounced to the penny final chart. That's a judgment, that's an up arrow. Others would say, nope, you got that exactly wrong. It's about to break that trend. But down here, some 23% versus the market. I think it's weakness to take advantage of.
- [23:52]
A
I mean, I guess a key factor in this on the fundamental side is what it does for Warner Brothers Discovery. The bidding process opened last week. Netflix has strong interest, according to David Faber. But we don't know anything about a bid. No.
- [24:03]
B
And we thought that was probably not going to be good for the stock and it's proven to be correct. By the way, Tom Rogers, I think back in June two quarters ago, was for the first time in years concerned about the price action and where the stock was good for him. Carter pointed the trend line. This level is also the prior all time high that we made back in February. So this is a logical level for it to stop and bounce. So I'm more inclined to say buy it off this trend line and sell it.
- [24:28]
G
Yeah.
- [24:28]
F
And it's not just Netflix, it's Spotify, which is down 25% from its recent all time highs. And I look around and I look at some of these names, Internet names, right. I see Doordash and I see Instacart and I see Uber and I see a bunch of other. Pinterest is another one. A lot of consumer oriented names that don't act particularly well. So again, maybe this is part of a larger pastiche as it relates to the. That's a Carter.
- [24:51]
E
No, it's.
- [24:51]
G
Sorry.
- [24:52]
E
So Max Myers.
- [24:52]
G
Okay.
- [24:53]
F
It is a Max Myers to do the pastiche of pain a lot.
- [24:57]
A
Yeah, yeah, that was.
- [24:58]
C
Max Myers is watching the show right now.
- [25:00]
B
Watches every night.
- [25:01]
E
He has alerts for.
- [25:02]
F
He's a big fan of the show.
- [25:03]
E
Turns on whatever.
- [25:04]
C
They're going to start texting.
- [25:05]
F
No, but you guys get my point? Throw Airbnb in there. And it just seems like this vertical is having a tough time right here.
- [25:11]
A
At the same time, is this an. I mean, Netflix specifically? You like this name?
- [25:15]
C
I like this name, but I think it may struggle for a little bit. And Carter's trend line looks was without judgment. So I will say it hasn't spent this much time below the 200 day, going all the way back to the last time it traded through and it took a while. Now, the things that are catalysts, because we have coming out back to the fundamental side, is they will make an outlook for 26. We should be getting something from them in January. I also think what they're doing in sports Netflix is fascinating because they're not trying to overspend and buy rights, but they've got the Christmas games, they've got other things going on. There was an article in the Post today talking, which is the bible of sports, by the way. The New York Post was talking about how ESPN isn't happy that they're plucking some of their talent. So I do think that there are catalysts for Netflix in places like sports and other verticals in entertainment that we've been really excited about and have been catalysts in the past.
- [26:01]
A
Are you confident in Netflix management that if they make a bid for WBD or parts of wd, wbd, that they will do it in a disciplined fashion and it would be accretive?
- [26:09]
C
I don't see why they wouldn't. Especially when you're buying pieces of something and whether it's a sale that they work on with Paramount sky, or whether it's something that they go aggressively into one part of it and that gets sold first. I don't see why they have to be overly aggressive and overpay here, when in fact their content creation has been lean and mean and something that's been part of the success story.
- [26:30]
B
You give them the benefit of the doubt that they'll do it the right way. But then the flip side of that coin is why do they feel like they need to do it? Because this was a growth company for a long time, not having to go down that road. Maybe they're at a point now where they think they have to. I think that's why the stock is sort of squishy here. That's another term like pastiche. By the way, Max would look good in the same type of mustache that Oliver had.
- [26:51]
C
So I think he. I think he'd grow his bushier somehow.
- [26:54]
F
I think he'd rather have the hair on his head, on his.
- [26:57]
C
I think, I think he There is.
- [26:59]
A
A lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [27:03]
C
Zoom doing just that. The results sending shares of that stock higher. We'll break down the AI impact on growth straight ahead. Plus Chip Intrusion How Google's latest partnership is giving Nvidia a run for its.
- [27:18]
F
Money as the AI chip wars heat up.
- [27:22]
C
You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [27:33]
A
Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella.
- [28:01]
C
Edu OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours.
- [28:06]
A
Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team.
- [28:09]
B
Or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans.
- [28:11]
C
Up to $250,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A by the Better Business Bureau.
- [28:17]
F
And earning thousands of five star Trust pilot reviews, Ondeck delivers funding you can count on.
- [28:22]
C
Apply in minutes@ondeck.com depending on certain loan attributes. Your business loan may be issued by.
- [28:27]
F
Ondeck or Celtic bank on Deck does.
- [28:29]
A
Not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval. Black Friday More like Black Friday. Shop the DSW Black Friday sale and take 30% off almost all the shoes, accessories and giftable goodies we've got@dsw.com plus 30% off just about every regular price item at your DSW store. Score shoes that get you and everyone on your list at prices that get your budget. So carpe the deal had to designer shoe warehouse and get that gift list done. DSW Let us surprise you. Welcome back to Fast Money. An earnings alert on hp shares falling after hours despite beating fourth quarter earnings and revenue estimates but giving weaker than expected guidance for the first quarter. The company also announcing a headcount reduction ranging from 4 to 6,000 job cuts. Meantime, Zoom riding the earnings wave higher after reporting stronger than expected results. Giving positive full year guidance. A video conference conferencing stock jumping nearly 10% today. The stock having its best day since August. Zoom is still down more than 84% from its all time high during the pandemic. But AI tools, that's what it's all about here. I mean, I know you've been on Zoom calls. Plenty of us have. They have a transcription, sir. I mean, they have all sorts of other sort of layered things on the platform.
- [29:43]
C
This is. First of all, I'll let Carter talk about a great call he made on the stock, which is still playing out, but. Because I know he was looking at that. But I'll just talk about the. The valuation and the cash and their ability to monetize. Not what we wanted them to do during COVID but it's not a difficult buy on valuation here.
- [30:02]
A
What do you think?
- [30:02]
F
Yeah, I think it's also activist bait for the purpose that you just mentioned. I mean, they beat on every metric last night. And when we were looking at this thing, I know Karen was like, I don't know why, it's only up 3%. And again, this is, you know, aftermarket's the aftermarket. And it doesn't make a lot of sense to kind of take. Take too much away from that. But it was a really good quarter. The guidance was really good. A third of their market cap is in cash. They have no debt. This is a product that's likely to iterate, you know, and I also think it's such an easy bolt on to a big tech company that's trying to, you know, Cisco had that WebEx. I mean, there's no shortage of companies that could and should buy it. I mean, you could bang a bunch of things together like Docusign, and like, I know that sounds weird, but you can make an offer sweet or something like that.
- [30:45]
C
Zoom is. And like, just from the layman's perspective here, Zoom is an application that actually does couple really well with AI right now. And people are finding more utility out of Zoom than they've ever had because of just obvious stuff about how it's summarizing Zoom calls in ways that people are sitting there taking notes. So, I don't know, I like it.
- [31:03]
F
Well, really quickly, DocuSign, that was dumb. I just want to be. I don't know where that came from.
- [31:07]
A
You don't think it should be. No, no.
- [31:09]
F
It'd be a larger tech company, company that bolted on Microsoft.
- [31:13]
C
Didn't you make a call on Zone on this show?
- [31:15]
E
Yeah, Just because it's such a prototypical, bearish to bullish reversals, going from 500 all the way down to like 50 and basing forever. But what's so shocking is to think about, and this is the vagaries of markets when it was 5, 600 a share in 2021 it made $20 million in net income. Now it makes almost 2 billion but people willing to pay 500 bucks for it now and 68$86 for it now. This is, this is, this is why valuation is known as a terrible timing tool.
- [31:41]
B
So on the fact that they're buying $1 billion worth of stock back not insignificant. This can trade to 105 which percentage terms a decent move easily from this level. So yes goes higher I think coming.
- [31:53]
A
Up a disruption in the chip trade how Google's chip deal with meta potential chip deal is hitting the likes of Nvidia and AMD and the impact it could have on the entire semi sector. Fast money's back into.
- [32:07]
C
Missed a moment of fast Catch us.
- [32:09]
F
Anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast.
- [32:12]
C
We're back right after this.
- [32:20]
A
Welcome back to Fast Money stocks, notching a third straight positive session. The Dow jumping 664 points. The S&P climbing nearly 1% and the NASDAQ up about 7.10of a percent. The Russell 2000 leading the gain soaring more than 2%. A continued move higher in the health care trade. Shares of Novo jumping nearly 5%. JJ and Eli Lilly both hitting fresh records in today's session. And shares of symbiotic surging nearly 40% after the robotics maker topped earnings and revenue estimates this morning. Wal Mart is a big client of theirs. They actually have a partnership with Wal Mart. Wal Mart had its robotics division merged with Symbiotics and now Symbiotics signed a new health care partner health care customer and so that's seen as broadening out their customer pipeline which is important.
- [33:04]
B
One could say it's wait for it Symbiotic.
- [33:09]
A
Interesting not really matter set to be considering spending billions other ways.
- [33:16]
B
That was pretty good symbol now.
- [33:18]
F
Well it's good because 85% of their.
- [33:20]
A
Sales was Walmart because it was that.
- [33:23]
F
Would be from Walmart Mark that where you're going?
- [33:25]
C
You know what you I mean I know I've had better act like you've been there before. What did I do?
- [33:29]
B
I wasn't fawning over myself. I just said that was pretty.
- [33:32]
C
Of course you were. She had moved on and you had to call her back to point out that it was actually a smart thing to say when I think you've said smarter anyway questionable.
- [33:40]
A
Matta said to be considering spending billions on Google chips according to a new report from the information the report adding Google is aiming to capture 10% of Nvidia's revenue with its its TPU business pitching its Chips is more secure and cost effective. Shares of Nvidia, which currently supplies MET as processors, dropping 2 1/2% on the report while Google parent Alphabet closed at an all time high. Metta meantime up almost 4% for its best day since July. What's interesting, and I'm going to point to Dan for this one, is that we've been talking about this possibility of all of these hyperscalers developing their own chips and the possibility of them selling these chips to others in not needing Nvidia or AMD or these other guys anymore.
- [34:23]
F
Yeah, they've all been dying for a second source and they've been in this, you know, kind of arms race over the last three years or so. So Google is kept its head down. We were talking about Google yesterday building and working on Gemini and again out of the gate it wasn't particularly great. They still buy Nvidia GPUs but like all of the other hyperscalers, they're all been looking again to diversify supply away from Nvidia. So don't think for a second this is not going to weigh on Nvidia. A lot of stuff that Jensen said on that call last week, it's been picked apart a little bit. It almost felt like it was kind of ringing the bell a little bit at the top. And I don't mean like the Nvidia story is over, just there's plenty to go around it looks like at this.
- [35:02]
C
Point, I guess I just get back to the fact that I don't think it's an expensive stock. I mean, I understand there's an incredible amount of hype and, and the things that are most easy to attack are the speculation about whether people can find alternative sources. The biggest things I think we're talking about in the aftermath of their earnings are this question about inventories and where they are relative to history. Except for given the growth, are the inventories really that outsized given how much faster they are growing than the historical average? The second is really just whether there's, there's a story around, around the circular nature and the receivables coming back to them by those companies that they've invested in. And that's, you know, there's a lot of pushback on that that I can't really, you know, I can't challenge. But I just get back to a multiple on a company that I know is in every conversation. But it's not expensive, it's cheaper than it is on a 10 year. I mean how can that be something that we're that scared about. I just don't get it.
- [36:00]
A
There's a part of the report, though, that outlined why Nvidia made a $100 billion investment in open AI. And what it implied was that after it was known that Alphabet was talking with OpenAI, Nvidia stepped in to lock them in, which sort of it shows me they're a little bit scared, a little bit desperate. Yeah, desperate or good business. I mean, whatever it is.
- [36:23]
B
No, but you make. I think you make an excellent point. The fact that Nvidia went to Twitter today to sort of defend this whole thing about Google chips and Facebook and Nvidia, that to me is a little concern. Like Tim's right about. He's absolutely spot on. Here's the problem. If competition is coming faster than people realize or think can happen, 75% margins are going to be a thing of the past, sooner rather than later. And that takes the valuation which is reasonable, into levels which might not be as reasonable.
- [36:52]
E
I mean, it's ever thus there. The question is these are loved and then all of a sudden they're out of favor and now they're back in favor. The valuations are in question ultimately, is this a. Is it. You hear second inning, you hear ninth inning. It's unknowable. And I think you just have to pick your stocks.
- [37:11]
A
Coming up, trading on a strong foundation. The big bump in builders today. And if the group can keep hammering home some gains more fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. The housing trade seeing a rebound. Pending sales in October up 1.9%. Pushing the ITB Home Construction ETF up nearly 5% today. Lennar, toll Brothers, Dear Horton Others helping lead the charge and home improvement names. Home Depot. Lowe's also jumping. It was in line with what was expected. September was revised a little bit higher. So Depot it looked pretty decent. Tim, you pointed this out on the call.
- [37:51]
C
Yeah, I like Home Depot here, although I again, if I was putting on a new position, I'd be more tactical about necessary running into the whole thing here. I think there's a story to be told about where you're going to start to see a little bit more weakness. The comps they guided down, I don't think it's a great environment for them. But this stock is giving back a little more than 20% from where it was. The valuation is not terrible. So I think this is a name I'm kind of, you know, checking my list and what is it? What's that?
- [38:21]
B
You're look, you're checking your. You're Right.
- [38:23]
C
You're making, making my list and I'm checking it twice. So that's when it's the holiday season. Right. I need to do better than that than on my limits.
- [38:31]
A
The Home Depot is on the nice list.
- [38:33]
C
It's nice. It's not naughty.
- [38:34]
F
It's a gap to fill.
- [38:35]
A
What do you think? What list?
- [38:36]
E
Pair two.
- [38:37]
A
Oh Pair two's list. That's a separate Pair two's list is a different list. Quite naughty now.
- [38:44]
E
Sort of like you missed the list altogether.
- [38:47]
G
Yeah.
- [38:48]
B
People are chasing the home building stocks and pulte homes that are all, they all did, all the four that we talk about. I think, I think the exuberance around the space is somewhat misguided because I think the unemployment rate is going higher. We talked about the consumer, the state of the consumer last night. I think it's going to be somewhat short lived but we'll see. Today people fell in love with homebuilders yet again.
- [39:06]
A
If unemployment goes higher, will Home Depot suffer? Tim?
- [39:10]
C
Yes. Yeah it will. And I think that's a story that it had been the place to play relative to the homebuilders in an environment where there's a lot of reasons why they are struggling. But yes, no question.
- [39:22]
A
Coming up accelerating. But can the data centers keep up the seemingly endless power demand and how operators are navigating the build out? And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of Agilent Technologies. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Hyperscaler spending an eye popping $115 billion in Q3 are now poised to top 380 billion in combined CAPEX this year. Surge that's also fueled Wall street worries over an AI boat bubble. But our next guest says investors shouldn't fret over tech delivering on its spending plans. It comes down to powering and cooling the AI datacenter build out. For more, let's bring in Flex Central CEO Ryan Mallory. The company operates over 40 data centers in 18 major markets. Ryan, great to speak with you.
- [40:17]
D
Hey Melissa, thanks for the opportunity to catch up.
- [40:20]
A
It sounds like if it does come down to power and cooling, etc. That there is some question about whether or not all of that money will actually be able to to be deployed if the bottleneck is happening at power, at cooling, at water, etc.
- [40:34]
D
Yeah, there is a ton of demand out in the marketplace for this power and the network capabilities. But you know, the bottleneck isn't necessarily right with the power, so to say, so to speak. We've got a lot of very sophisticated capabilities out in the industry right now looking at power generation, you know, power transmission and power distribution. So I'm very confident and bullish on the industry being able to keep up with that demand.
- [41:02]
A
So what kinds of solutions are you most bullish on? I mean you hear about things like a Bloom Energy, you know, on site power generation smarts which seem to be, you know, years away. Nuclear is years away at this point, Ryan. So you know, how, how will we feed this imminent demand for power with the technologies we have currently?
- [41:21]
D
Yeah, it's really about the proper planning on the grid and then being able to find the, you know, the right amount of power in those markets. You bring up a great point about Bloom Energy and some of these behind the meter type of solutions out there. Natural gas plants are going to become a critical part of being able to meet and bridge some of these power requirements out there. But like I said, you know, you have to look at in some of the non traditional markets outside of a Northern Virginia or California there is power out there and you know, you just have to do your diligence to make sure, you know, your teams are executing and finding.
- [41:57]
A
So the builds just have to take place in the right place where the power is effectively.
- [42:02]
D
You got it, you got it. And you having the right energy team to be able to, to align with those power companies is a difference maker.
- [42:11]
A
You're a private company, so what sort of demand have you been seeing if any as a result of this surge?
- [42:18]
D
It's the demand is tremendous out there and so but it's not just the generative and training models that we're hearing about with the gigawatt campuses that you know, we're seeing across the country. We are seeing a very distinct shift in the amount of capacity and focus being put on inference. That's where companies, you know, like Flex Central in these edge markets are going to be able to really help put you know, the agentic AI modeling out there and being able to meet that demands of the enterprise.
- [42:50]
B
Ryan, what are the secondary plays that we don't talk enough about? You know we talk about Vista and Bloom and all the obvious ones. What are the ones sort of downstream that we should be aware of?
- [42:58]
D
You know they're the, they're the big ones that are out there. You know it's some of the niche, you know, Nat Gas, you know, peaker plant providers that, that you know, we're seeing start pop up but it's also just you know, being having access to those power companies that have those gas lines that are in proximity to, you know, to this demand cycle.
- [43:18]
A
Water is also an issue when it comes to cooling wine. And I'm wondering how you see that play out and what that means for data center, if that is becomes expensive or difficult to come by.
- [43:31]
D
Yeah. You know, water is becoming a misnomer in the data center industry. You know, a lot of the companies are building at a zero we or water use efficiency, which really isn't pulling off of any of the localized water demand. You know, so when you become more efficient in how you're building and designing the data centers, you don't have that same impact on the local communities. So there is a little bit of a PR scenario that the data center companies really need to do because, you know, water isn't the big issue or isn't as big of an issue as it used to be.
- [44:06]
A
Right. Ryan, great to speak with you. Thanks.
- [44:09]
D
Thank you. Have a great day.
- [44:11]
A
Mallory, like central interesting. But you know, there are some questions about whether or not we will be able to power up data centers like all these other things down the line, the supplies basically to get these things going.
- [44:23]
C
Yeah. And again, we've had this conversation. I think it really is the pieces of the data center that the most interesting guy was asking for. You know, where are you downstream. I mean, trains hardly. It's moved. But there are other places in the H Vac space that I think are fascinating.
- [44:36]
B
Yeah.
- [44:36]
F
And it's not just access to power, it's where that power is actually being accessed. So if you think about where a lot of these data centers are, Northern Virginia, California, Texas, it is driving up the cost of energy for everyday Americans who are right now not exactly using AI or in the. I mean, listen, they're training these models. It takes a lot of. That gentleman just mentioned inference. That's where a lot of consumers are going to be using it. But most folks are probably the trade off is like lower energy prices, less air surges.
- [45:07]
A
We've got breaking news on drug pricing out of the cms. Bertha Coombs has got the details. Bertha. That's right, Melissa.
- [45:12]
C
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid out with their inflation Reduction act negotiated prices. These are the companies and the drugs that will be at these prices starting in 2027. And Medicare Part D. One of the biggest categories is diabetes, of course, Ozempic, webgovy, Rybelsis. In that cohort, the negotiated price is $274. That's 71% below the list price. But of course we know the MFN price is 245 and that's the one that will actually prevail. They were both negotiated separately.
- [45:46]
A
Janument for type 2 diabetes by Merck.
- [45:48]
C
That one 85% list price below at $80. Tragenta from Beringer Ingleham $78 also 84% below. The biggest ones are the cancer drugs. The most expensive let me get that one in is for blood cancer. Polymist for myeloma. That one is a 60% discount at 86.50.
- [46:12]
A
Alyssa Bertha thank you. Bertha Coombs Final trades Next.
- [46:19]
G
Final trade.
- [46:20]
E
Tim Wolfwald Carter 5 Capri Holdings Dan.
- [46:23]
A
Buying Zoom Guy Alibaba thank you for watching Fast Money Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer.
- [47:15]
C
When the flu is keeping you up at night, don't.
- [47:17]
E
Try to tough it out.
- [47:18]
C
Knock out your flu symptoms with NYQUIL Intense Flu.
- [47:21]
E
You got this. It provides powerful relief of your flu symptoms so you can sleep well through the night. NYQUIL Intense Flu the nighttime sniffling, aching, aching fever.
- [47:32]
A
Best sleep with a flu medicine.
- [47:34]
E
Use as directed. Keep out of reach of children.