CNBC’s Fast Money – November 25, 2025

Episode Overview

In the November 25, 2025 episode of CNBC’s “Fast Money,” host Melissa Lee and a panel of top traders break down the day’s key market action, focusing on the sudden resurgence in consumer discretionary stocks just ahead of the Black Friday holiday, the bifurcation within the retail sector, fresh data from Dell and Zoom, the swelling demand for power in the AI data center space, and emerging competition in semiconductors. Special guest Oliver Chen, senior retail analyst at TD Cowan, joins to discuss what “choiceful” consumer spending means for retailers. The show closes with a technical look at stocks like Netflix, Home Depot, and commentary on the continued heat in homebuilders and artificial intelligence.

1. U.S. Consumer Discretionary: Resilience or Red Herring?

(00:00 – 09:34)

Key Points

• Consumer discretionary stocks surged, with Abercrombie & Fitch (+38%), Kohl’s (+43%), and Best Buy (+5%) leading—a sharp contrast to recent weak retail sales/confidence data.
• Retail ETF (XRT) registered its best day in 8+ months, boosting hopes for holiday sales.

Insights & Discussion

• Guy Adami (02:39):
  "Never underestimate the U.S. consumer’s want to spend. They’ll spend under just about every circumstance."
• The desk notes a “have and have-nots” environment—discount retailers (TJ Maxx, Walmart, Costco) showing stability, while midrange players lag.
• Carter Worth (03:31):
  "Stocks cited today are huge laggards ... XRT is still below where it was in 2021. That’s bad stuff."
• Discussion on shifts toward spending on experiences/preferences (e.g., travel, airline stocks) versus goods ("Guy doesn't need another pair of Crocs...but I do think we need to travel").
• Footwear/apparel signals: Nike rebounding, but Foot Locker/Dick’s not matching the rally, echoing broader brand weakness.
• Dan Nathan (05:58):
  "Brands can do okay. But some of the weaker outlets, like a Foot Locker, probably weighing things down a bit."

Notable Quotes

• Guy Adami (02:39):
  "Never underestimate the U.S. consumer’s want to spend."
• Carter Worth (03:31):
  "They have one common feature. They’re all huge laggards."

Timestamps

• [00:00] Episode opening, day’s consumer trade moves
• [02:39] Adami on consumer spending habits
• [03:31] Carter on technicals and laggard rebounds

2. Retail Sector Deep Dive: Selectivity, Value, and the "Choiceful" Consumer

(09:34 – 17:37)

Guest Interview: Oliver Chen, Senior Retail Analyst, TD Cowan

• Main Take:
  • Value retailers (Walmart, Costco) gain favor amidst consumer selectivity; high-income consumers propping up the economy.
  • Walmart’s tech expansion and digital advertising cited as major growth drivers; "iconic membership model" and strong renewal rates at Costco.

Quotes

• Oliver Chen (09:57):
  "Walmart has consumers looking for value in everyday low prices ... and is capturing that high household income shopper as well."
• On promotions:
  "It’s more like ‘Black November’ ... less panic, more planning, with deals clear, 20-50% off, well-managed inventories." (12:20)

Retailer Segment Analysis

• Middle-income brands (Kohl’s, Macy’s, Target): "better-than-feared" results boost stocks short term, but pressure remains due to rates, confidence, and youth unemployment.
• On Target: Needs “more joy” in shopping, improved private brands, and faster supply chain; contrasts with Walmart’s tech-driven approach.

Timestamps

• [09:34] Oliver Chen interview
• [12:20] Prolonged Black Friday/"Black November" trend
• [14:33] Target’s challenges and Walmart comparison

3. Stock & Technicals Spotlight: Dell, Netflix, Zoom, and More

(17:37 – 31:52)

Dell Earnings and the AI Trade

(17:37 – 21:20)

• Dell raised AI shipment guidance (targeting ~$25B), but margin pressure and debt-financed demand from cloud customers (e.g., Oracle, CoreWeave) cited as flags.
• Dan Nathan (19:13):
  "...if there is something lurking out there, these debt-laden companies ... at some point, these orders are going to have to slow down."
• Panel divided: Some see valuation support for rebound; others call it a "pair of twos"—neither strong buy nor sell.

Netflix: Technical Weakness or Opportunity?

(23:16 – 26:30)

• Down ~13% over 2 months. Carter Worth’s charts suggest technical support level could lead to a bounce.
• Sports content pivot (Christmas games, ESPN talent acquisition) framed as a near-term catalyst.
• Guy Adami (24:03):
  "Buy it off this trend line and sell it."
• Debate on acquisition interest in Warner Bros. Discovery, content strategy, and management discipline.

Zoom: AI Monetization, Activist Bait

(29:43 – 31:52)

• Zoom shares surged (~10%) on strong results and positive guidance; AI tools now core differentiator.
• Firm has a third of its market cap in cash, no debt, and is seen as acquisition bait for larger tech firms.
• Dan Nathan (30:02):
  "They beat on every metric last night ... it was a really good quarter. The guidance was really good."

4. Infrastructure: Data Centers, Power & Cooling Bottlenecks

(39:22 – 44:10)

Interview: Ryan Mallory, CEO of Flex Central (Data Center Operator)

• Data center demand remains "tremendous"—not just for generative AI/training models, but for inference.
• Bottleneck not just power quantity but sourcing it in the right location; grid management and natural gas “peaker” plants are key.
• Localized water use less of an issue now due to efficient modern designs.
• Mallory (40:33):
  "The bottleneck isn’t necessarily with the power. We’ve got a lot of very sophisticated capabilities ... I’m confident the industry can keep up."

5. Semiconductors: Nvidia Faces New Rivals

(33:40 – 36:51)

Key Points

• Report: Meta may spend billions on Google chips; Google aims to grab 10% of Nvidia’s revenue with its TPUs.
• Nvidia’s high margins could be threatened by increased competition and alternative AI chip sourcing at scale.
• Dan Nathan (34:22):
  "They’ve all been dying for a second source ... diversify supply away from Nvidia."
• Guy Adami (36:22):
  "If competition is coming faster than people realize, 75% margins are going to be a thing of the past."

6. Homebuilders & Housing Supply

(37:11 – 39:22)

Key Points

• Pending home sales rose 1.9%, boosting construction stocks (Lennar, Toll Brothers, D.R. Horton), and home improvement (Home Depot, Lowe’s).
• Tim Seymour (37:50):
  "I like Home Depot here ... valuation is not terrible."
• Panel expresses skepticism about longevity: If unemployment rises, housing-related stocks likely to stall.

7. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Guy Adami on the consumer (02:39):
  "Never underestimate the U.S. consumer’s want to spend."
• Carter Worth on retail (03:31):
  "The stocks that were cited as coming to life have one common feature. They’re all huge laggards."
• Oliver Chen on retail landscape (09:57):
  “The shopper’s definitely being choiceful … a lot of bifurcation ... the higher income customer is holding up the economy.”
• Dan Nathan on Nvidia (34:22):
  “Don’t think for a second this is not going to weigh on Nvidia. … Plenty to go around, it looks like.”
• Carter Worth on technicals (23:16):
  “There’s two types of weakness: weakness to take advantage of, and weakness to stay away from.”

8. Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:00] Opening, consumer discretionary rally
• [09:34] Interview: Oliver Chen (TD Cowan) on retail trends
• [17:37] Dell earnings and AI data center discussion
• [23:16] Netflix technicals and acquisition talk
• [29:43] Zoom earnings, valuation, AI tools segment
• [33:40] Meta’s Google chip interest, Nvidia risk
• [39:22] Housing rebound, homebuilders rally
• [39:22] Interview: Data center buildout, energy bottlenecks (Flex Central CEO)
• [45:06] Breaking News: Drug pricing from CMS

9. Final Trades (46:19)

• Tim Seymour: Wolfwald
• Carter Worth: Capri Holdings
• Dan Nathan: Buying Zoom
• Guy Adami: Alibaba

Summary in Brief

On the eve of Black Friday, “Fast Money” unpacks a sudden jolt of strength in beaten-down consumer discretionary stocks—amid lingering sector unease. The panel highlights how value retail (Walmart, Costco) and high-income shoppers are supporting sales, while mid-tier retailers continue to struggle. Earnings from Dell, Zoom, and HP highlight ongoing challenges and opportunities in AI, tech, and hybrid work. The data center expansion story is a focal point, with power and infrastructure (not just AI demand) driving the next leg for tech infrastructure and semiconductor rivalry (Nvidia vs. Google) heating up. Homebuilders rally on sales data, but traders are cautious about sustainability.

This episode delivers a lively blend of technical analysis, stock picks, big-picture retail and AI insights, and market humor—providing actionable ideas and critical context for investors ahead of the holiday shopping rush.