Fast Money 11/26/25 (CNBC) — Episode Summary
Podcast: CNBC's "Fast Money"
Host: Melissa Lee + Trader Roundtable
Air Date: November 26, 2025
Main Theme:
A pre-Thanksgiving market roundup analyzing the surprising bullish trends into year-end, rotation within Big Tech, red flags for Eli Lilly as obesity drug data looms, the “dark side” of crypto custody, and tactical plays in Oracle, gold, airlines, and more.
1. Market Sentiment: Year-End Rally in Focus
Key Points:
- U.S. equities head into Thanksgiving on a four-day win streak.
- S&P 500 up >3% for the week; volatility (VIX) drops below 18; 10-year yields fall under 4%.
- Traders dissect whether lower rates, receding volatility, and dovish Fed bets will propel a “Santa Claus rally.”
- Seasonality and positioning: Funds may buy into year-end to improve performance.
- The Fed “still the main thing” driving markets; market moves dovetail with shifts in Powell’s tone.
Quotes & Highlights:
- [02:32] Guy Adami:
“As bearish as I want to be, it’s very hard given the calendar.” - [03:25] Steve Grasso on positioning:
“If you’re underperforming the market, you want to … dress those positions up… you’re more apt to buy this dip to make your existing positions look better than worse.” - [04:12] Melissa Lee:
“Odds [of a rate cut] swinging more than 50% just from this time last week.” - [06:13] Tim Seymour:
“Retail is alive and well and I think the market’s going higher.” - [07:20] Mike Khouw explains VIX:
“When the VIX has gotten north of 25, that represented maybe a little bit of excess fear...it seems like that was reiterated again very recently.”
2. Big Tech Leadership Rotation & Portfolio Positioning
Key Points:
- Despite Nvidia’s lagging performance, S&P and Nasdaq climb, with Apple hitting all-time highs and Alphabet rebounding.
- Discussion on whether Nvidia’s dominance is waning with hyperscalers making their own chips; leaders see opportunity in broader tech.
- Rotation strategy: Some suggest scaling back Big Tech in favor of more equal-weighted exposure.
Quotes & Highlights:
- [07:50] Guy Adami:
“Nvidia has been meandering…yet the broader market continues to grind higher. That’s extraordinarily impressive.” - [08:55] Steve Grasso:
“I think the others do better than Nvidia. Meta, Microsoft, the obvious ones…Nvidia loses, they win.” - [10:46] Kathy Entwistle (Morgan Stanley):
“We’re scaling back…trying to be more equal weighted and pull back on some of the overweights [in Big Tech].”
Morgan Stanley Strategy:
- Scaling back Big Tech after huge outperformance; rebalancing for diversification.
- More exposure to generic large caps that can use AI, not just build it.
- Increasing allocations to private markets (late-stage private equity, data centers, infrastructure).
- Still favoring some fixed income, expecting a strong Q1 2026 for munis.
3. Asset Classes: Crypto, Private Markets, Gold
Key Points:
- Crypto: Clients cautiously dipping toes via ETFs; physical self-custody security is a growing concern (“wrench attacks”).
- Private Equity/Markets: Wealth creation moving to pre-IPO stage; seeking access to high-growth sectors like data centers.
- Gold: Remains resilient near all-time highs, especially as a non-correlated asset alongside crypto.
Quotes & Highlights:
- [14:22] Kathy Entwistle:
“We’re using mostly ETFs. Clients are really curious and interested…trying to educate them, trying to have them dip their toe in.” - [16:53] Tim Seymour:
“Bitcoin or crypto assets have had their first test and probably wouldn’t say they failed...having it in institutional hands may mean it’s in faster money.” - [16:53] Guy Adami:
“It’s fascinating GDX did not sell off in a meaningful way. People have not given up on the gold trade, nor should they.”
4. Oracle: Post-Selloff Opportunity or Battleground?
Key Points:
- Oracle rebounds 4% on Deutsche Bank bullish note (AI cloud infrastructure), but still down ~37% from September peak.
- Sentiment and valuation now more attractive after the selloff, but open questions about dependence on future “OpenAI” spend.
- Divergence on the desk: Some see value, others prefer Alphabet or shorting Oracle.
Quotes & Highlights:
- [21:23] Tim Seymour:
“It’s hard to like the price action…But now, after you’ve round-tripped a lot of that, I think the valuation makes sense.” - [23:02] Guy Adami:
“Now they’ve put a bullseye on their back…Prior to this, Oracle was sort of a slow and steady old tech play that was working.” - [24:00] Mike Khouw:
“If you’re concerned about the trade in the AI space…why not be long Alphabet and short Oracle?”
5. The Dark Side of Crypto: $11 Million Heist
Key Points:
- High-profile San Francisco crypto theft (“wrench attack”): thieves physically force access using facial recognition.
- 60+ such attacks globally this year; self-custody remains a double-edged sword.
- “ETFs are the easiest way” for average investors to get exposure—more secure than cold/hot wallet self-storage.
Quotes & Highlights:
- [27:54] Melissa Lee:
“You can also access a Coinbase account [with facial recognition], which is terrifying.” - [28:24] Steve Grasso:
“Other than not telling people how much you own and being off the grid, there’s really no way to protect against a crazy person doing this.” - [29:09] Tim Seymour:
“Safety around self storage is clearly a big issue. But is it a bigger issue today than five years ago? I think not. All these issues are more publicized because Bitcoin is an asset class that everybody’s following.”
6. Stock Game: “Trade It or Fade It” — Thanksgiving Edition
[32:30] Boeing (BA)
- Grasso: Trade (bullish) — expects return to free cash flow; views BA as a duopoly.
- Khouw: Fade (bearish) — valuation high, weaker balance sheet, less free cash flow than pre-2018.
[33:27] Gold
- Adami: Thank it (bullish):
“You do not fade gold, in my opinion. Gobble, gobble. Thank it. Whatever you want to say — play the music. I still like it.” - Grasso: Trade/Thank (bullish):
“Whether it’s gold or Bitcoin or Ethereum or Crypto, I think you need an alternate investment. And I think with rate cuts coming, you want to be in one of those three.”
[35:01] UnitedHealth (UNH)
- Seymour: Thankful (bullish), expects a rebound, margin story improving.
- Khouw: Trade/Thankful (bullish), “Valuation is attractive…great performer for 15 years barring that little blip.”
7. Pharma: Eli Lilly Faces Competition
Key Points:
- Eli Lilly up 43% YTD; Novo Nordisk pressured.
- Amgen’s obesity shot data could be a near-term threat to Lilly, but Lilly’s pipeline breadth remains dominant.
- Long-term, sector is “most transformative drug class” (GLP-1s) per guest Len Yaffe; market to swell by 2030; short-term profit-taking possible on strong Amgen data.
Quotes & Highlights:
- [39:27] Len Yaffe:
“If Maritide [Amgen] had favorable data…people at this valuation may look to take profits in Lilly, which has just been outstanding.” - [41:20] Len Yaffe:
“This drug category is tremendous…not just a better quality of life, a longer life, but unlike any other category of drug I can think of, it actually saves the system money.” - [43:23] Mike Khouw:
“We own Lilly. It’s about a 4% allocation…It has had quite a run…been selling upside calls against this one…Looking at top and bottom line growth, it’s not expensive.”
8. Airlines: Ready for Takeoff?
Key Points:
- Airlines set for record Thanksgiving traffic; Delta and American lead group higher.
- Delta praised for premium cabin demand, international recovery, and margin expansion.
- Tactical/technical and fundamentals align for bullish view on Delta.
Quotes & Highlights:
- [44:32] Tim Seymour:
“Delta’s much more efficient, best in class. The noise around FAA cancellations was just that. I think [DL] goes to all-time highs in the next couple of months.” - [45:53] Steve Grasso:
“Delta’s chart, Tim laid out why the premium. The front of the plane has been selling and those help the margins. International is coming back. Corporate travel is there, which is a premium margin.”
9. Final Trades (46:22)
- Tim Seymour:
“Thankful for you…thankful for Delta Airlines.” - Mike Khouw:
“American Express…next year will be even better. I like AXP.” - Steve Grasso:
“Pfizer, looking forward to a bounce-back.” - Guy Adami:
“Harmony Gold…thankful for this show, everyone on it, you especially Melissa Lee.”
Notable Moments & Tone
- The Thanksgiving “Trade It or Fade It” game resulted in playful confusion over the format (“thank it or turkey it!”), with turkey sound effects adding to the banter.
- Lighthearted segments interspersed with tactical, actionable talk — maintaining the straightforward, sometimes blunt, sometimes humorous trader-style dialogue.
Recommended Listen For:
- Investors curious about end-of-2025 market structure, especially around Fed policy, Big Tech rotation, and pharma innovation.
- Retail and institutional investors looking for asset allocation insights (crypto, gold, private markets).
- Anyone tracking the AI/cloud, obesity drug race, and “dark side” of crypto.
For further information, visit: fastmoney.cnbc.com
All opinions expressed are those of the hosts/guests and not official CNBC recommendations.
