D (3:25)

You know, when you look at people and funds into year end, the reason why it's historically a positive sign or a positive seasonality for the market is if you're long the market, you want to see your stocks go higher. If you're underperforming the market, you want to average or you want to dress those positions up. So not saying that their market manipulating but you're more apt to buy this dip to make your existing positions look better than worse. So you know how we always talk about the Fed and are they the biggest thing for the market? Well, did this week prove that? I think pretty much people are still worried about the Fed. Right. So worried about Powell got a little more hawkish, that sent the market lower and now we see a little more dovish and the market's higher. I think it's as simple as that.

E (4:12)

Yeah.

A (4:12)

We had Waller on Monday telling another network that he would be inclined to cut rates. We have JP Morgan this afternoon flipping and now seeing a cut in December. Tim. So it does seem the Fed is a force in terms of Fed cut great for the markets. We are, you know, clear for that. There's a glide path forward.

F (4:31)

There's that glide path and the Fed's always of course, I mean the fact that we're even, I don't think we're debating it. So let me just say I thought it started last week, last Friday and that's what turned the market was the Feds Williams New York Fed, arguably the most important Fed. And so you combine that with what was it's a week by the way, that forgot Nvidia. It's the week that Nvidia forgot. And ultimately the dynamic here is it's a great show for equities given that leadership coming from the semiconductors which did lead but not by Nvidia was there so JP Morgan, the aforementioned there they were upgrading their S and p to to 7,500 next year. But they said it could actually be closer to 8,000 if we have a more dovish Fed. They qualified it and said we could go even higher. But at the root of they and other houses on Wall street are the quality of earnings. And that really is I think part of the story here this year end rally. And off of those lows, those intraday lows from last Friday, you've got almost a 10.5% move in semis, you've got a almost 6% move in the Nasdaq, dare I utter the word small cap in the same sent and they rallied almost 8%. And so the question for investors often is during these bouts of volatility, should you be doing anything or you should be buying? And I'll just add one more thing is that retail showed both last Friday and on Monday and this is actually data I got from JP Morgan which is that they had one of their highest buying days up days On Monday, a 94 percentile up buying day on Monday after the kind of fallout from Friday. So I think retail is alive and well and I think the market's going.

A (6:13)

Higher and retail's largely been right all year. Maiko, what do you see here going forward?

G (6:18)

Well, you brought up the VIX at the very beginning. Two things about that. The first is that we have seen multiple times this year that when the VIX has gotten north of 25 that that represented maybe a little bit of excess fear, a slightly oversold condition. And it seems like that was reiterated again very recently. The other thing about the vix, I would point out is that just because of the mechanics of how it is calcul, it looks 30 days in advance and is estimating the volatility that the S and P is going to experience over that intervening 30 days. But there would normally be what, 22 trading days in that, in that session, in that period of time. Now we have slightly less because we've got a half day Friday, we're off tomorrow and then we have a half day on Christmas Eve and we're off on Christmas. So in that 30 day window we're actually three days shy of the 22 you would normally experience. So the VIX is actually slightly higher than and it's on its way down. What does that tell me? I actually think there could be a little bit more room to the upside here because it seems like that oversold condition probably could run, you know, a little bit further from here, a little.

A (7:20)

More to the upside. So more volatility potentially in these markets. I mean what we've seen is something, I don't want to say extraordinary but very interesting in terms of what has churned in this market. So we had Apple today, fresh all time high, Alphabet coming off of all time highs. And in the meantime, Ted mentioned the week that left behind Nvidia, the week that left behind Oracle. We're seeing this sort of rethink of a rethink of AI spend and therefore a rethink of what who is leadership in big cap technology.

C (7:50)

And if you had said to me we play this game, if you had said to me Nvidia is going to be underperforming where the rest of these things would be like, well, it's got to be dragging the rest of the market down with it. But it's not. I mean the market S and P has done this without in video. I mean Nvidia has been sort of meandering here at this sort of 180 level for quite some time and quite frankly it feels vulnerable to the downside. Yet the broader market continues to grind higher. It's very impressive. And again the fact that we traded down to those levels when we did and held it and defended it and it bounced the way we are even I have to admit that's extraordinarily impressive.

D (8:24)

I felt that in video, you know, at 85% market share it's a positive. If that sells off and the others rally. The hyperscalers are creating their own chips. Not everyone needs the chip that Nvidia creates. Some are basic needs. You have things that are just basically searching the web. You have things that really need inference. So I don't think that Nvidia is on the top of the hill for, for long, but it's outlasted what I thought it would be able to run to.

A (8:53)

But how about from this point on?

D (8:55)

Yeah, I think the others do better than in video. I think Metta, Microsoft, the obvious ones do better at Better better. I think Amazon does better. So I think Nvidia loses. They win.

A (9:07)

Mike, do you, do you agree in terms of the churn within Big Cap technology, the reordering of the hierarchy, if you will.

G (9:15)

Well, I think it was a couple of weeks ago is my final trade. I mentioned Alphabet. We bought it on that dip the following Friday and we sold in video the day after earnings. You know, it's a good run, but that was some relative weakness, it looks like. That's not. I mean, what are we down like one and a half, 2% from where we, we sold it? But I agree with Steve that I think that you want to actually see it broaden out a little bit and you don't need Nvidia to carry the whole market by itself. I think that's kind of what this.

A (9:44)

Week illustrated in terms of Apple though. Here we are sitting at all time. Highs.

C (9:48)

Yeah, it's impressive. Money flows, I think is a big part of it. You know, Tim has mentioned the fact that is probably not priced in. They seemingly, you know, maybe by being second or third, they're actually first in terms of the market rewarding them. It does make sense. Listen, I still think valuation is a problem. I get the install base and all those things, but you're really paying up here 32 times next year's numbers.

A (10:09)

For more positioning your portfolio into year end, let's bring in Kathy Entwistle, Managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. Kathy, great to have you here on set.

G (10:17)

Thanks.

A (10:18)

What are you telling clients? I mean they, they call you right now and they're like, where are we in the markets? Because everything looks great.

E (10:24)

Absolutely. We're taking these opportunities where markets have volatility. Those are always opportunities for making changes, adding money in as markets are going down and also peeling off a little bit as, as they're rising.

A (10:37)

You're advocating or you're proposing to, to your clients that they sort of scale back on Big Cap technology. How is that message being received on the other end?

E (10:46)

Mostly, yeah, cautiously. But we're also, we're scaling back. We're not, we're not removing.

A (10:50)

Right.

E (10:51)

We're just scaling back. So we're pulling back a little bit. You know, there were seven stocks in the S&P 500 that like, you know, blew up. The whole s and P500 did great. 493 still remain. We think there's still opportunities in those other stocks as well. So we're trying to be more equal weighted in a sense and pull back on some of the overweights.

A (11:09)

What's changed in your view, to move from an overweight to more of an equal Weight on big cap technology.

E (11:15)

Just the fact that there's been such a run up that there's been some issues with some of the companies not performing as well as they had been and also that there's just more opportunity out there and we don't want to be concentrated.

D (11:29)

So Kathy, when you look at it, I understand the diversification and the 7 versus the 493, but those 7 have actually earned all the revenues, most of it.

H (11:38)

So they've been the one.

D (11:39)

So how do you decide on where to diversify out of those seven? Are you looking small cap, which is unprofitable, that hope in hopes that lower rates will help these companies? How do you decipher which ones you go to that have the revenue and the EPS tailwinds?

E (11:55)

Basically the S&P 500 US large cap, we like just very basic generic companies in a sense that we think have the opportunity to take the AI that's out in the markets and run with it. So we're not necessarily looking at all the AI companies. We're looking at which companies can run using AI and where, where we're going to get the most pop for our money there.

C (12:16)

I tell you, Kathy, both Tim and I are thinking of the great John Entwistle. I'm sure you've heard that, but I had to mention it. With that said, private equity, I think you guys are trying to sort of get your clients involved. That's something new over the last couple of years. Can you speak to that?

E (12:30)

Yeah, absolutely. So we all remember the days of the big IPOs and a lot of the wealth creation happening at that IPO offering. Now we're finding that companies are staying private longer and the wealth creation is happening before a company goes public. So in that respect, we want our clients to participate in that growth and we are putting them in private markets.

A (12:51)

So it's not really private equity per se, it's private markets specifically. So potentially these, these unicorns that if they went public they would be unicorns. But they're saying private longer. Like it. I don't, I don't know if it's open air, but like an open air.

E (13:04)

Company opportunity opportunities that, where companies are staying private longer to be able to participate in that growth. Also when you think about like infrastructure, we have private infrastructure, we have private equity, we have private credit and private infrastructure. It used to be bridges, tunnels, roads. Now it's data centers and cell towers. So in that respect you're getting access to maybe data centers that seem to be a very hot area to invest in right now and you're getting easier access to it.

A (13:34)

How do you view the entire portfolio if you are trying to scale back on big tech exposure but then you've got the exposure in private equity or private markets to data center?

E (13:44)

Absolutely. Well, we're, you know it used to be a 60, 40, 60 equity, 40 fixed income. That's not the case necessarily anymore. We're peeling back a little bit on the equity side. You know, a lot of our clients have won the game. They don't need to take huge risks in the market. So we'll end up putting them like maybe get down to like 55% in equities, add the alternatives and we still like fixed income. I heard someone earlier talking about maybe munis aren't working. We think is going to be really great first quarter next year, so get.

D (14:10)

A little deeper on that risk curve. So what's the conversation like when you talk about crypto, whether it's specifically Bitcoin or how they're investing in it? Is it, is it through ETFs? What, what, what modality are they using?

E (14:22)

Absolutely. We're using mostly ETFs. Clients are really curious and interested. I would say we're really at the, at the beginning that like point of learning and understanding about crypto at least our clients are. So we're trying to educate them, trying to have them dip their toe in the water. And ETFs seem to be the area where they're most comfortable stepping into that area right now.

A (14:43)

Kathy, great to see you. Thank you. Have a great Thanksgiving. Kathy Entwistle of Morgan Stanley Mike Co. What do you think about scaling back a little bit on big cap tech exposure?

G (14:54)

I think that's okay. I don't know that private credit would be the place that I would deploy that money though. I actually think that there's probably a decent amount of risk in private credit actually. I mean I understand it's a fast growing area, but I don't think these are not mark to market instruments. So that's something that I think I would caution people about if that's an area that they are contemplating right now. As far as fixed income is concerned though, I think you can be in the five to seven year tenors and I think that actually the results are reasonably going to be reasonably attractive in that area and I think there is a lid to where the rates are anyway. So that's going to be less duration and it's, you know, we're probably not going to see those rates spike. So I think that's probably a good place to diversify private credit, private equity. Unless you're a vulture investor. I'd probably stay away from those two areas.

H (15:45)

Tim Well, I think you have a discussion about asset class allocation and it also depends on just how high net worth the client is. What Cathy is talking about some of those clients, ultra high net worth for sure they should be in alts and alts are non correlated and the question is, you know, what percentage of a portfolio should be in alts. I think the other question we've also digested over the last three to six months is what's going on with gold? Where is gold as an allocation where precious metals. I think it's fascinating that really for the first time since they have been an institutional allocation, Bitcoin or crypto assets have had their first test and probably wouldn't say they failed the test. I think it's been again a very interesting time to see how institutions have handled it. We've talked on this show how the fact that you now have it in institutional hands may mean it's in faster money, believe it or not, than some of the crypto hands. But fascinating conversation. Asset allocation for high net worth, ultra high net worth is different than it was. 6040 is I think, you know, it's not that it's outdated but I do think it's yesterday's news and I think you want to have as much tech today as you had yesterday.

C (16:53)

I agree with Tim real quick on the gold. It's it to me it's fascinating that the GDX did not sell off in a meaningful way. And if you look at it right now it's still within sort of earshot of its all time high, which I think is very encouraging. I think it speaks to the fact that people have not given up on the gold trade, nor should they.

A (17:11)

We've got breaking news we want to get to on the shooting in Washington D.C. eamon Javers has got some details here.

I (17:16)

Eamon Melissa, authorities here in Washington just wrapped up a press conference giving some additional detail on that shooting that we saw here in Washington at just about 2:15 this afternoon, just a couple of blocks away from the White House. Most importantly, what authorities are saying is that the two National Guardsmen who were shot in the incident are alive, they are in critical condition. That contradicts the report that we had from the governor of West Virginia earlier who said that both of those National Guardsmen had died. Now officials say they are in critical condition and they are receiving medical care. So that's the important headline there. Also, we're learning that the suspect is in custody and the suspect was shot, in this instance by additional National Guardsmen who were on the scene. Not clear exactly who shot him, but they were able to subdue him after the shooting. The investigators are working on his identity now and looking at any connections that he might have had. But they say this was a single shooter and they believe that there are no other suspects at this time. They say this shooting happened right at the exit to the Metro here, just around the corner from the White House, and that the shooter approached the National Guardsman, discharged his weapon immediately and then almost immediately after that was set upon by the other National Guardsmen who were there. The secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, secretary of war, as he refers to himself, is now calling for an additional 500 National Guardsmen to be sent to the District of Columbia to reinforce security here. He says he's doing that at the direction of the president of the United States. So we will see more troops on the streets here in Washington, D.C. melissa, back over to you.

A (18:58)

Amen. Thank you. Amy Jabbers. Coming up, Oracle off the mat. The bounce in that stock after a rough month and why Wall street says the tech giant isn't getting the love it deserves. Plus, the dark side of bitcoin, the crypto heist making headlines, and the millions stolen from one tech investor at gunpoint. The details ahead do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in June.

D (19:19)

This is Fast MONEY with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc. Listen up. If you guys haven't heard of Gold.

G (19:29)

Belly, let me fill you in.

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A (20:59)

Welcome back to Fast Money. Oracle shares showing signs of life jumping 4% today as Deutsche bank reaffirms its buy rating on the cloud company. The firm saying Oracle is getting little credit for its business with open Air, which they argue solidifies Oracle's leadership in deploying AI cloud infrastructure at scale. Shares are still down over 37% since its peak in September. Tim, would you agree with this assessment on Oracle?

H (21:23)

I would on valuation and I would in terms of sentiment, I think it's, it's, it's absolutely overdone because it's starting with the premise that they are ground zero for debt concerns even before they've really created an actual credit profile that, that should warrant that. If you look at the historical valuation somewhere here after a from that September 10th closing high, so not even the intraday high to even where it's now rallied back, it's still down 35%. It puts 26 multiple of EBIT somewhere around 20 to 23, maybe even a bit lower. And that is in line with historical. So I just, you know, I don't love Oracle. I don't love this. Let's put it this way, the strategy has been so much so fast and it has been extraordinary. It's hard to like the price action which has been extremely volatile and bul directions. Having said that, now after you've kind of round tripped a lot of that, I think the valuation makes sense. And those numbers, Those multiples on 26 and even 27 are numbers before the open air ingredients into top line and bottom line. So I kind of like the call.

A (22:31)

It feels like now Oracle's like a battleground stock, right? I mean it's back to June levels basically. So as Tim had mentioned, no open air deals priced into the valuation here. D. Davidson yesterday said, you know what, if you take a look at the cds, it's rising. They don't believe in a default, but they're just saying the market is realizing that what is being priced in is this notion that maybe Oracle that they're depending on spend that's going to happen from a customer that may or may not actually see the returns may not be there.

C (23:02)

Ultimately I went back and watched all the September 10th videos, read a bunch of stories and people were tripping over themselves to say and I think we talked about it either that night or a couple nights later. It didn't make a lot of sense to us, excuse me collectively just because the revenue is fine but we didn't know what the earnings were on the back of it. Now subsequently I never thought we'd back and fell to levels we got to. Here we are. I don't think it was meant to be at $320 something dollars but I don't think it should have traded below 200. It'll sort of sift in Tim is right. Valuation you can get your arms around and prior to this this was sort of a slow and steady old tech play that was working. Now they've put a bullseye on their back whether they realize it or not.

D (23:42)

If you look back to those June levels gapped up from 170s up to 215 or so. I would look at this week's lows somewhere around 194. Use that as your stop out if you have to be long the stock but I think it bounces further.

A (23:55)

By the way, that Deutsche bank analyst $375 price target on this one. Mike.

G (24:00)

Yeah, not for me. Look, I mean if you're concerned about the trade in the air space in general and you're trying to look for kind of a, you know, a long and a short, I just don't understand why you wouldn't continue to be long a name like Alphabet and potentially on the short side an oracle. It's still trading a turn or two above its long term average. It has negative free cash flow. It's, you know, it's not one of the ones that I would pick to continue into that trade. If anything it would be the opposite side of the ones that I like in the space.

A (24:32)

Coming up, the dark side of the crypto trade. How a recent crypto heist is putting the safety of self storage into focus and the impact it could have on bitcoin prices. You're watching Fast Money live for the NASDAQ markets at Times Square back right after this.

B (24:52)

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A (26:23)

Welcome back to Fast Money, A dark side of the crypto trade coming into focus after a targeted heist left one tech investor robbed of $11 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Mackenzie Segalis got the details on this one. Mackenzie hey Melissa. So Y Combinator CEO Gary Tan, a friend of the victim, posted security footage showing someone posing as a delivery man rushing into a San Francisco home in broad daylight. Now police say the intruder tied up the resident, demanded access to his financial accounts, and then stole about $11 million worth of crypto using the digital keys that were stored on the victim's laptop and phone. And inside the industry, these are known as wrench attacks, where criminals have realized that it's often easier to show up with a weapon than hack a wallet. Online facial recognition that makes it even simpler. You tie a victim up, point the phone at their face, and then drain their account. Based on public reports, there have been more than 60 of these physical attacks on digital asset investors so far this year. NBC News has identified crypto related kidnappings in 44 countries, including brutal cases in France and a high profile abduction and torture of a traitor in a Manhattan townhouse last year. I will say this, we tend to see upticks during market surges like last November as bitcoin hit a new record high after the election and in tandem with the run up we saw last month. Mel. Wow, Mackenzie. Thank you. Mackenzie Segalos. This happens, obviously, if it's self storage, self custody, but I guess in theory with facial recognition, you can also access a Coinbase account, which is terrifying.

C (27:54)

It is. And that's just the world we live in now, unfortunately. Now, now, I don't know if you necessarily want to trade around this, but one, it's a horrible thing too. I think it's very encouraging that Bitcoin got off the mat the way it did because we were precariously close to trading at the level that is to me concerning that sort of coincides with where strategies average prices, which is now, I think north of 75,000 and where Bitcoin actually got down to. I don't know what happens if and when, but clearly now it's on everybody's radar screen because more and more people are starting to write about it.

D (28:24)

And this is what we're talking about before ETFs. For the average person who wants crypto exposure is probably the easiest way to gain that exposure. Because whether it's cold storage, whether it's self storage, whether it's hot storage, it gets really confusing for the average investor. So I guess other than not telling people how much you own and being off the grid someplace, there's really no way to protect against a crazy person doing this.

B (28:51)

Right?

A (28:51)

Yeah. In terms of just the price action of Bitcoin, I mean, Tim, you've made the point many times that this is a time when there is probably the most instrument institutional investor, the most diversified holder base, and yet we're seeing this huge downshift, I guess, in the trade.

H (29:09)

And the most regulation around it and probably the least amount of these events. I mean, I understand this is an awful, awful event and safety around self storage is a clearly a big issue. But is it a bigger issue today than it was five years ago or 10 years ago? I think not. I think all of these issues are more publicized because bitcoin is an asset class that everybody's following. I, you know, look this level to buy this dip on Bitcoin is something that's going to look very obvious in the rearview mirror whenever that is. And for people that own Bitcoin, yes, there are a portion of them are trading it, but most of the new investors that have come in, especially on the institutional side, my senses, and certainly a lot of the retail, especially the advisory community, that's recommending these ETFs. They're not running for cover after a 15% pullback. And if they are, they shouldn't have been here.

A (29:59)

Tomorrow is what day? Gobble gobble, Turkey day giving and Mike, I don't know what you discussed during Thanksgiving. Bitcoin often comes up when you're in the midst of sort of an uptrend in the trade. That is the talk who has owned bitcoin for the past couple of years because they are geniuses. Right. And they are wealthy now.

H (30:18)

Yeah.

G (30:18)

I mean, look, I think that the I actually thought we might have tested those April lows in bitcoin, but I think that names like strategy look quite appealing here now that basically the bloom is off the rose and consequently it's not trading at a premium any longer. Fully diluted. I think maybe there's about three and a half billion. So if you take the market cap of strategy, add three and a half billion to it and then figure out what the price of the 650,000 bitcoin that they hold relative to that number is. And I think you get to see that you have sort of positive convexity if you're long strategy relative to bitcoin. Could we see more volatility? Could it test those April lows? I suppose it could. I think there's a lot of people who are shooting against their cost basis. They're shooting against that lower fib and they're shooting against the April low. But I think that you're probably going to be happy if you buy either bitcoin or strategy here. Looking out a year or more.

A (31:08)

Coming up, your favorite game with a holiday twist, a Thanksgiving Day edition of Trade it or Fade it with some of this year's biggest winners and losers. Where our gang says they see those names heading into year end when Fast Money returns. Missed a moment of fast Catch us.

D (31:25)

Anytime on the Go Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

A (31:35)

Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks notching a fourth straight day of gains ahead of the Thanksgiving break. The Dow jumping more than 300 points. The S&P up nearly 7.10of a percent. And the NASDAQ leads. Gains up 8.10of a percent on pace for its best week since May. And some stocks hitting fresh all time highs. Insurance names like Lowe's and Travelers GM touching its best level since its post financial crisis IPO. And Wal Mart up 2%, also hitting new highs ahead of Black Friday. Meantime, before we sit down for our Thanksgiving feast, we thought it'd be a good time to revisit some of the stocks we are thankful for and maybe others that could be turkeys. Not to be means a turkey. So why not play America's favorite game traded or fade it? Thanksgiving edition first up, Boeing, the top percentage gainer in the Dow today up more than 2%. The aerospace company now 6% higher this year. Steve, are you thankful for Boeing or is it going to be a turkey?

D (32:30)

I am thankful for Boeing. I am long Boeing and I'm looking forward to a return to consistent free cash flow. Ramping Production on the 737 Max 7 Triple 7787 all of the host of their fleet. It's, it's been a tough go for Boeing but they are a duopoly and.

H (32:50)

If you, if you look at it.

D (32:51)

Through that prism, I think that there will be higher prices going forward.

A (32:54)

What do you say Mike?

G (32:56)

I would have to say I think this one's a little bit of a turkey. I'm going to fade Boeing here. Look, I mean the valuation on an earned price value basis is about where it was in 2018, a period of time, by the way, when the company was making over $9 billion in net adjusted Inc. Had significant free cash flow which it doesn't have now. It doesn't have anywhere near that kind of net income and the balance sheet is a little bit more wobbly than it was. So I'm glad to see it's going up. Great American Industrial Company but I'm not a buyer.

A (33:27)

Next up on the plate, gold, the commodity in the green today just 5% away from last month's all time highs. It is up 58% this year. Guy, I'm going to read what's at the bottom of the screen.

C (33:38)

Please read it.

A (33:39)

Thank it or turkey it.

H (33:42)

Is that what they say?

A (33:43)

I don't think that's not English. Thank it. If there are young people out there.

E (33:46)

It's not.

A (33:47)

It doesn't mean anything like thank it or turkey it. Is it a turkey? Are you thankful for it?

C (33:52)

Thank it or tank it or turkey it.

A (33:54)

But we have to keep Thanksgiving.

C (33:55)

Well, that's good. It's an excellent point by you anyway. Well then given those rules, I will thank it.

G (34:01)

Makes no sense.

C (34:02)

Is there a little. Do I get the graphic or drop. No, I didn't hear any. I didn't hear any.

A (34:07)

I'm thanking it. It says faded gold. I'm not. I'm very confused.

C (34:11)

I'm not faded.

D (34:12)

Never. How can you never.

A (34:15)

The big one on the bottom supersedes the small.

C (34:18)

Yes, the big one.

D (34:19)

You Wrote on a cave wall and.

C (34:21)

A cave wall with, like, Fred Flintstone with, like, the chisel. No, I think, listen, the gold trade is alive and well. You do not fade gold, in my opinion. Gobble, gobble. Thank it. Whatever you want to say. Play the music. I still like it.

A (34:36)

How about you, Steve?

D (34:37)

I'm bird or bust. I go bird on this.

G (34:41)

This like it's.

D (34:44)

I trade it.

G (34:45)

I trade it.

D (34:45)

I like it. I think that whether it's gold or whether it's Bitcoin or whether it's Ethereum or Crypto, I think you need an alternate investment. And I think with rate cuts coming, you want to be in one of those three.

A (34:57)

This is the problem with a lot of the games that we had a.

C (34:59)

Lot of games problems.

A (35:01)

Sometimes you get into the game, you don't even know what you're saying. I mean, it's meaningless. Thank it or turkey it. And then they play the turkey. For anything that you faded, trade it, you fade. I mean, whatever. Okay. UnitedHealth, the stock under the weather slipping more than 35% this year. The sector facing a tough year. So, Tim, do you trade it or fade it? Let's go old school. Trade it or fade it. You can't change.

H (35:20)

I'm going to. Thank it. I'm going to.

A (35:22)

Okay, it's not a turkey. Don't play the turkey sound.

H (35:25)

It's the Thanksgiving edition. You can't talk. I mean, come on. Yes. I mean, look, you should be thankful that I'm taking the two hardest stocks in this game tonight, because this isn't easy. But I'm thankful and I'm certainly not going to trade it. I think it's a case where we've gotten enough updates in terms of Medicare Advantage. We have some insight into 26. This is again a valuation story. Once you got past any concern that, you know the F word and I mean, you know, fraud was being thrown around. I mean, this is a story more on margin and where this company sits. I'm thankful I didn't own it from 600 down to 300 or 240. And I do own it today, and I expect to be thankful a year from now that I bought it.

G (36:07)

Michael, trade it. Thankful. Whichever other way we're supposed to describe it, I'll do both. I like UnitedHealth here. Look, I think Tim's right. We put the worst of it behind us. One hopes the valuation is very attractive. This actually has been a great performer for at least 15 years as a company, barring that little period when we had different management. We're back to the previous management now, and I think we're going to get this company back on track. I like it here.

A (36:33)

All right. I like how they just play the turkey sound. No matter what you say, this is a great sound. Greatest sound ever.

C (36:38)

Is that a human?

A (36:40)

No, it's a turkey. It's a real turkey.

H (36:42)

It's a human made the sound.

A (36:46)

It's actually Maurice.

C (36:47)

Maurice is a man of many talents.

A (36:49)

He's very talented, obviously. I mean, that turkey is very convincing.

C (36:54)

That might be him in IRL right now. It's not even a drop.

A (36:57)

You never know. Coming up, sizing up the weight loss trade will debate whether Lilly shares can hold on to their lead over competitors and the next generation Drugs to watch. Back right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. It's been a blockbuster year for Eli lilly, now up 43% since January, while obesity drug rival Novo Nordisk has fallen by about the same amount. But attention is shifting to new competitors in the space. With Amgen set to release a new data or some new data on its monthly obesity shot before year end, our next guest says potentially strong data could put pressure on Lilly shares. For more, let's bring in Caslif Capital managing director Len Yaffe. Len, great to have you with us. Good to see you. So we're expecting a couple of readouts on Maritime Amgen's drug lens. So what, what's the scenario here? The data is good and what do you characterize as good? And what does that mean?

J (37:50)

I think the key with maritide, and this is part two of a phase two study, is what is the incidence if we learn of nausea and vomiting. The issue surrounding maritide isn't so much the efficacy, but it's the side effect issue. And if we get some understanding of that, that could either make people feel more comfortable with the drug or make it less likely that the drug would be significant. My bigger concern with maritide is that it's not slated to get FDA approval until 28 or 29. By then, Lilly will have three drugs on the market for obesity and four drugs in advanced clinical study. Novo, which I've just recently started to accumulate, will have three drugs on the market and at least one significant drug in advanced clinical study. So I think that even though maritide could be very promising as a once a month drug, which would be in advance over the weekly drugs that we have now, and possibly even up to once every three months, given the doses they're studying the time when it's coming to Market may leave it very little market share to gain.

A (39:07)

So basically the note that you shot out a couple weeks ago that caught my eyes is the premise that if the maritime data were good by the end of the year, that you could see Lilly take a hit in Amgen gain. But that sounds like it's a very short term sort of phenomenon. In that longer term, Lilly could still be in the driver's seat and potentially novo could be the value play here.

J (39:27)

Exactly. I totally agree. You know, Lilly, as you mentioned at the start, has gone up very significantly. When I established a price target three years ago, it was eleven hundred dollars and so there. And I'm very thankful for that. But it's going to be hard to get Lilly to move significantly higher from here. In the short term, it might take time for estimates to increase and then to look out in later years earnings for the stock to go up. So my concern was if Maritide had favorable data associated with it, people at this valuation may look to take profits in Lilly, which has just been outstanding.

C (40:11)

All right, Len, I know we talk about Lilly all the time. Amazing company trades at almost 35 times next year's numbers. They deserve a premium. But you're talking about them at 35 times Bristol, Merck 11, maybe 12 times. And I get there should be a disparity, but at what point is valuation a concern?

J (40:31)

Great question. And my estimate for next year is $35 per share. So it's at about 31 times my estimate. And I talked with you folk several months ago that I felt we were undergoing a pharmaceutical research renaissance at a time when valuations were very low. And so that disparity needed to get resolved. It did with the stocks going up. So your point is well taken, that Merck has 30 drugs in phase three. People I think underestimate its oncology pipeline. It is not going to be a significant player in obesity. Same with Bristol. So we're looking at a drug category this year that's going to be $20 billion in the U.S. going to, in my opinion, $150 billion by 2030. Those companies have great pipelines in other areas that are doing well, but not in this category that I've called the most transformative drug class of my career. And the reason importantly is not obesity per se. It's because these drugs, the incredins and the amylins, help prevent the morbidity, mortality and cost associated with seven of the most common chronic conditions in the US And I'll just add that icer, the Institute for Clinical Economic Research, a very highly regarded group that analyzes drug costs just had a symposium two weeks ago where they said that Zepbound, which is much better than WeGovy at its lower price that was recently proposed by President Trump in addition to lifestyle management, was not only better than lifestyle management alone, but it was cost savings. So it's not just a better quality of life, a longer life, but unlike any other category of drug I can think of, it actually saves the system money. This drug category is tremendous.

A (42:38)

Len, great to speak to you. Thank you.

J (42:40)

My pleasure.

A (42:41)

Have a great day. Lanyaffee, you mentioned the, the valuation of Lilly being rich. Would you say 39, 38, 34.

C (42:48)

But his, so he's, he's anticipating 35 bucks. So his valuation is a little cheap, right? At 32.

A (42:53)

But yes, Wal Mart is north of 40.

C (42:57)

Yes.

A (42:58)

You know, and again, shouldn't Lily, I mean, I know that's apples and oranges, but.

C (43:03)

No, it's fair. I, look, it's fair. I just, I think at some point in health care given the dispute and you know, it's funny, it's not that different between Walmart and Target as opposed to Eli Lilly and Merck or Bristol Myers. The difference is I think Merck and Bristol are in a much better position to target his vis a vis Walmart.

A (43:21)

Mike, what do you say we own Lilly?

G (43:23)

It's about a 4% allocation in the portfolio. So obviously I like it. It has had quite a run here, though. So we've actually been selling some upside calls against this one. Collect a little bit of extra prem volume going into the end of the year. But I mean when you take a look at the growth rates and that's both top and bottom line because they're probably going to have 18% revenue growth year on year and 35, 36% anyway year on year on the adjusted EPS side. So it's not expensive.

A (43:48)

Coming up, we're flying into airline stocks as millions of Americans hit the skies for the Thanksgiving weekend. How the weather could impact your travel plans and the names that could gain some altitude. More fast Money into. Welcome back to FAST money. Airlines kicking into high gear. Cities across the country are experiencing severe weather heading into the holidays. Triple A projects 6 million US travelers to take domestic flights over the Thanksgiving holiday period. That's a 2% increase from last year. Airline stocks lifting off with American Delta Airlines leading the group. Tim, we were talking about this yesterday in terms of, of sort of the consumer facing names getting a lift and the airline stocks are among them and.

H (44:32)

They'Re continuing spend on airfare. And Delta Airlines is continuing to draw also premium cabin. Whether it is corporate and business class or whether it's even some of the features in kind of the main plus or premium economy. What it translates to is not only, you know, 10% sales growth which is significant, but that it's a higher margin business that's also feeding through to the multiple of the company which trades at multiples from five years ago. I it's a much more valuable company because it's much more efficient company and it is best in class. And the, you know, the noise around the FAA cancellations was just that. I, I think there is strong carryover from third quarter demand into the fourth quarter. I don't think we've seen airline traffic pull back with the same kind of concern. Other parts of the consumer spectrum is so no secret. I'm long Delta. I think this is a great opportunity. I think it's going to all time highs in the next couple of months.

D (45:27)

You know, when you look at Delta, everyone always throws in United into those into that class. I think Delta's chart, Tim laid out why the premium. The front of the plane has been selling and those help the margins. International is coming back. Corporate travel is there which is a premium margin on that. But when you look at United, the chart doesn't look as good to me as when you look at Delta. So Tim talked about fundamentals. Tacticals are really a tailwind to Delta as well.

C (45:53)

$70 was the alltime. Little less than 70 back in February. And I like the planes where you stare and there's nothing in front of you.

A (45:59)

Well, you wear a tie, you're all dressed up.

C (46:03)

Nothing.

A (46:03)

What do you call loosened a tie called raw dogging. And you just stare but you quickly fall asleep. Let's be clear. It's not like you're awake staring for a long period.

C (46:11)

Maybe it's like medium rare dogging up next.

A (46:14)

Final trades, Final trades.

D (46:22)

Tim, first of all, thankful for you.

H (46:25)

There on the desk. Thankful to everybody at home and thankful for Delta Airlines. Happy Thanksgiving.

A (46:31)

Michael Koh.

G (46:32)

Yeah, American Express has had a good year. I think next year will be even better. I like axp. See a stock that has not the.

D (46:41)

Stock that has not performed. But I'm looking forward to back bounce back.

A (46:44)

Pfizer, thank you for that turkey sound.

C (46:47)

I'm not have fun tomorrow. I am thankful for this show. Everybody on it, you especially Melissa Lee and the crack staff back in EC and all the folks that watch Happy Thanksgiving. Harmony Gold.

A (46:58)

Have a safe one. We'll see you back here on Monday. Thank you for watching. Fast Mad Money starts right now.

B (47:08)

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A (47:25)

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B (47:27)

A particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it.

A (47:40)

Should not be relied upon as such.

B (47:42)

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