CNBC "Fast Money" — January 14, 2026

Episode Overview

On this episode, host Melissa Lee and the “Fast Money” trader panel break down the day’s key market movements and trends, with focused segments on the oil surge amid Middle East tensions, record-breaking precious metals, continued pressure on software and tech stocks, a debate on software valuations and AI’s impact, the struggles in the banking sector following earnings, a Congressional proposal to ban lawmakers from stock trading, and deep insights into the looming shake-up in commercial real estate. The show wraps up with trader acronym reveals for 2026 and discussion of Bitcoin’s ongoing rally.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Oil, Commodities, and Geopolitics

[00:30–08:11]

• Crude Oil’s Surge: WTI prices settled above $62 for the first time since November, driven by heightened Middle East tensions. Energy stocks (ExxonMobil, Conoco, APA, Marathon Petroleum) led the S&P.
  • Pullback followed President Trump’s assurance that turmoil in Iran was abating.
  • “The market is not suddenly pricing in a peaceful resolution…short covering and geopolitical risk premium are the big drivers.” — Pippa Stevens, [01:47]
• Risk Premiums and Market Sentiment: Citi raised its Brent forecast to $70, but with a caveat.
  • “Citi is saying this is all going to be driven by that geopolitical risk premium, but no actual disruption on the supply side.” — Pippa Stevens, [02:45]
• Panel Views:
  • Tim Seymour: “In the short run oil but energy equities trade fantastic…valuations and free cash flow yields make them very attractive here.” [04:04]
  • Guy Adami: “Trading the commodity and trading the equities are entirely different stories...oil can go sideways to slightly lower from here and I think these stocks have now told the market they're in this sort of new paradigm.” [04:55]
  • Karen Fireman: “I think there's a ton of value. That's where I think you have to go.” [06:47]
• Gold & Silver: Both hit new records, driven by inflation concerns and central bank demand.
  • “Central banks continue to buy...China, who's made a point about diversification, has only got 8% gold reserves of their total reserve base. Germany's at 80, Italy's at 75.” — Panel discussion [08:50]

2. Tech and Software – A Bear & Bull Showdown

[09:48–20:19]

• Sector Underperformance: Software and tech continue to lag; IGV ETF down over 2%.
  • “Tech sector's relative performance peaked October 30th. We're into a third month of underperformance…software is really taking the hit.” — Carter Braxton Worth, [10:10]
  • Chart concerns: “You have a well-defined trend line in effect…we have breached that trend line...sets up for more of the same, poor relative performance.” — Carter Worth, [11:08]
  • On Microsoft: “The fact that Microsoft and other key names…are in such straits…there's a message for the market.” — Carter Worth, [11:50]
• The Bull Case: Gil Lauria (D.A. Davidson) argues bargains exist despite negativity.
  • “Software businesses are still the best type of businesses...recurring revenue...very high incremental margins. None of that has changed.” — Gil Lauria, [13:00]
  • On Adobe: “For all the negativity around AI, Adobe’s growth has actually held up better than the overall software universe...stock is now trading at low teens multiples on earnings and cash flow.” [14:40]
  • On Oracle: “Oracle overextended itself for OpenAI…put themselves in a real bind...stock's gone down a lot, their debt is trading at a discount.” [16:14]
• AI Impact: Narrative may be overblown; so far, no significant software disruption.
  • “There has been no impact on any of these companies. AI has not disrupted or dislocated any software company.” — Gil Lauria, [13:00]
• Key Quotes:
  • “If we buy the good [software companies], they’re going to do well.” — Gil Lauria, [13:45]
  • “If the revenue starts decelerating significantly … or if they can't hang on to those best-in-class margins [then worry], but Adobe has had competition … and still managed to maintain its revenue growth better than Salesforce, better than Oracle…” — Gil Lauria, [17:14]

3. Banking Sector – Post-Earnings Examination

[22:41–26:55]

• Mixed Results & Rate Cap Fears: Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citi shares plummet after earnings.
  • “Wells Fargo missing estimates as severance costs drove up expenses...Bank of America and Citi both beat, but concerns over their credit card portfolios tied to a potential rate cap sent shares sharply lower.” — Melissa Lee, [23:53]
  • Panel general agreement: Much of the drop was due to “the setup going in,” with some moves considered overdone.
  • Karen Fireman: “I think it's somewhat overdone and I like Citibank here...it's overdone.” [24:59]
  • Tim Seymour: “I like Citi better than Bank [of America]... Citi is definitely worthy of one and a half or 1.6 [times TBV].” [25:26]
  • “I don't believe that the cap on rates is even going to take place…if that last leg of downward draft is happening because of that, that's a buying opportunity.” — Panel, [26:26]

4. Legislative Moves: Banning Lawmaker Stock Trades

[28:12–33:58]

• Proposed Ban: House panel advances a GOP-backed bill to ban lawmakers from stock trades.
  • Details: Would not require divestments; allows buying of funds, selling with seven days notice; Dems object to loopholes.
  • “Levels of trading that go on… Nancy Pelosi and her husband…most prominent examples…not a partisan issue.” — Emily Wilkins, [28:39]
  • Ro Khanna highlighted for making 4,000 trades in a year. “Imagine making 10 trades a day at least,” — Melissa Lee, [31:53]
• Panel Debate:
  • Steve Grasso: “I think it’s appalling...the rest of the world is held by a different standard and it’s outrageous.” [31:57]
  • Tim Seymour: “I’d rather have transparency...there’s a Pelosi tracker so I could actually see what they're buying…” [32:33]
  • Some worried the ban will simply push activity into less transparent channels.
  • “At least it's transparent. Jane Street’s always looking for a few good traders. Ro [Khanna] should show up.” — Tim Seymour joking, [33:58]

5. Commercial Real Estate at a Crossroads

[35:19–40:19]

• 2026 Pivotal Year: CRE debt maturities peaking, refinancing challenges ahead.
  • “Now you face about a trillion dollars of loans just maturing in 2026, which is two times the normal amount...interest rates almost 50% to 100% higher than at origination.” — Greg Friedman, Peachtree CEO, [35:26]
  • Extend-and-pretend no longer sustainable; anticipation of rising asset turnover as loans mature and are forced to recalibrate.
  • “The market's been very muted just on assets being able to trade and really recalibrate to this new normal, higher for longer long term interest rates.” — Greg Friedman, [36:25]
  • On Class A vs. B/C office: “There's a bifurcation within the office space...some buildings probably are never going to recover.” [38:03]
  • On deals: “We bought $600 million worth of loans...probably on average a 10–20% discount off of face.” [39:50]

6. Trader Acronyms 2026 Reveal

[40:23–43:28]

• Julie Beal’s “DELULU” Picks:
  • D: Descartes (Shipping data/tech)
  • E: Enerpac (Industrial small cap)
  • L: Lemaitre (Healthcare, pricing power)
  • U: ULS (Safety/electrical standards)
  • L: LPL Financial (Equity mkt/IR hedge)
  • U: Ulta Beauty (Consumer/makeup demand)
  • “Obviously it’s very important to get good Gen Z slang into the investment community. DELULU is what it sounds like.” — Julie Beal, [41:34]
• Courtney Garcia’s “CHARTS” Picks: Caterpillar, Home Depot, AstraZeneca, Rio Tinto, Taiwan Semi, SLB

7. Bitcoin and Crypto Rallies

[44:07–45:49]

• Bitcoin surges above $97,000, up 10% in two weeks.
  • Steve Grasso: “I think this is just an alt rally...more about the SCOTUS decision versus the congressional regulatory framework...catalyst for the move.” [44:31]
  • Tim Seymour: “Momentum dynamic...bitcoin crypto bill...people in Washington want to see this go through; more regulation means higher prices.” [45:30]
  • Karen Fireman: “The clarity bill...and maybe there’s a little Fed independence in there somewhere.” [45:36]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Software businesses are still the best type of businesses...recurring revenue businesses that scale well at very high incremental margins. None of that has changed.” — Gil Lauria, [13:00]
• “You have to grind to 2029…There’s not a quick recovery to commercial real estate.” — Greg Friedman, [35:26]
• “I think insider trading always shows up in technicals.” — Tim Seymour, [32:33], on market transparency versus loopholes.
• “If the revenue starts decelerating significantly…or they can’t hang on to those best-in-class margins, we could start worrying about that [with Adobe].” — Gil Lauria, [17:14]

Timestamps by Topic

• Oil & Commodities: 00:30–08:11
• Tech/Software Bear & Bull: 09:48–20:19
• Bank Earnings & Credit Card Cap: 22:41–26:55
• Lawmakers Stock Ban: 28:12–33:58
• Commercial Real Estate Outlook: 35:19–40:19
• Trader Acronyms Revealed: 40:23–43:28
• Bitcoin/Crypto Surge: 44:07–45:49

Tone & Takeaways

The episode was energetic, candid, and market-focused with plenty of panelist banter—ranging from sharp macro insights to lighthearted acronym games. The traders generally took a skeptical but opportunistic view: cautious on energy price spikes, hunting value in unloved sectors, debating real risks from regulation, and watching real estate for cracks and entry points. Panelists diverged on tech/software sentiment, while generally agreeing that some bank stocks had sold off too harshly. The commercial real estate discussion stood out for its realism about the refinancing “grind” ahead, and the segment on lawmaker trading sparked a lively, principled debate on transparency and market fairness.

Final Trades [46:03]

• Tim Seymour: Estee Lauder, “if you need to powder up.”
• Karen Fireman: Citibank, “down over $10 in the last few days. I think it’s overdone.”
• Steven Grasso: Exxon (“a little more left in it, even if extended”)
• Guy Adami: Rig (“I think continues to work here.”)

This summary is intended to capture the spirit, tone, and core takeaways of the January 14, 2026, episode of CNBC’s "Fast Money," including all major themes, detailed analysis, and memorable commentary for investors and market watchers who missed the broadcast.