← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fast Money 1/14/26
00:43:33
Listen to our traders take you behind the money...how to play the volatility...pops and drops and the movers you missed. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter? Right. And the best part, they accept Discover. Except Discover in a little place like this? I don't think so, Jennifer. Oh, yeah. Huh? Discover's accepted where I like to shop. Come on, baby, get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback, I think.
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Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
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@ Capella University, we believe accessible education can make a difference. That's why we offer scholarship opportunities to all eligible students. Un futuro differente esta ma serca de lo que cres con Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A commodity climb. Crude prices touching nearly three month highs while gold and silver set new records. What's behind the moves? How you trade the space and software has been sliding to start the year. The chartmaster says go short, but one top analyst thinks this is the time to buy in. Who is right? We'll hear both cases. Plus what is behind the breakdown in bank stocks, the state of commercial real estate with one top investor. And it's day three of our 2026 Trader acronym reveal. We've got top picks from Julie and Courtney later on this hour. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Fireman, Steve Grasso and Guy Adami. We start off with that crude awakening in the oil markets. WTI prices settling over the $62 mark for the first time since November. But pulling back late in the day after President Trump suggested turmoil in Iran was abating. Still, the strength in black gold has been pushing energy stocks higher. The sector the best performing on the S and P today and so far this month. Today's gains led by Action Conoco, APA and Marathon Petroleum. And ExxonMobil shares closing at an all time high price. For more on all these moves and the latest in Iran, let's bring in Pippa Stevens. Hey, Pippa. Hey, Melissa. Well, oil did pull back from that three month high after President Trump said the Iranian government has no plans to execute protesters, which the oil market is viewing as de escalatory. But Rebecca Babin from CIBC Private wealth noting this looks more like a pause and escalation rather than a resolution. About a dollar of geopolitical premium has come out after the market built close to $6 over the last week, meaning the market is not suddenly pricing in a peaceful resolution. Now, some of that recent move is driven by short covering. While many believe the market is well supplied this year, especially since OPEC can raise output with the Iran uncertainty as well as ongoing disruptions from Russia and Ukraine, there seems to be a floor on the downside. Now, Citi today hiking its near term Brent forecast to $70, pointing to the growing risk premium. But they do see these risks moderating in the back half of the year. Now, when you're talking about a city estimate of like 70, let's say PIPA does that price in disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as well? I mean, what is that worst case scenario that analysts are pointing to? So this is certainly not the worst case scenario. Basically Citi is saying that this is all going to be driven by that geopolitical risk premium, but no actual disruption on the supply side. They note that last year in June we saw prices on brent rise from 60 to 77 and nothing actually came came from that. There was no actual supply disruption. But, but it is that fear, particularly when this market had grown very complacent and when it was very well telegraphed that this market is going to be well supplied as of right now. So there is no talk at this moment of any disruption out of the Strait of Hormuz. But I do think it's important to note that civil unrest in some way is more uncertain than if there were some sort of direct military escalation, given that President Trump is very focused on that $50 oil limit. So it would probably be unlikely to attack any energy infrastructure. But if we see unrest internally, that could also just impact operations if protesters were to target any type of oil infrastructure. Yeah, great points, Pippa. Thank you. Pippa Stevens. So if it's not really a supply disruption that we're worried about and it's just the fear here in oil stocks are trading higher, how do you interpret that move higher? Is that durable or is that short.
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Lived? Well, I think the market today versus yesterday is, is less sanguine on there being, you know, no fallout. In other words, I think there is some view. I mean straits are Hormuz, you know, what could happen here? There's a lot of things that could happen given the non OPEC rising supply of what I think is also out there pushing around oil prices. I mean largely the world's awash in oil right now, I would argue. And I think there's a risk of even more of that if you at some point believe once you get through. I can't predict what's going to happen in Iran, but oil markets might look ahead to a place where Iranian oil can flow more freely at some point. I think in the short run oil but energy equities trade fantastic and I think after underperforming for a long time and I think you can get to valuations and you can get to free cash flow yields and div. Break. Excuse me. Yeah, dividend break evens in terms of an oil price in the mid-40s for the big integrated that I think makes them very attractive here. Yeah, I think trading the commodity and trading the equities are entirely different stories to Tim's point. So I think oil can go sideways to slightly lower from here and I think these stocks have now told the marketplace that they're in this sort of new paradigm. And I'll say ExxonMobil, which was sideways for the better part of three years between 112 and 120. I mean that move is significant now at an all time high. Valero continues to work Marathon Petroleum, the oil service names the Ian Karen's carbs last year. Obvious year obviously. Yeah. I mean look at Halliburton and look at Schlumberger. Now I'll say this, Halliburton's right against a nine year downtrend that I think it's going to break, by the way. But Schlumberger trades extraordinarily well. So the straight up remove. Straight up removes carries 25% of the global oil supply. If that were to stop flowing, WTI probably goes to 100, 225. That's most likely not. PIPA said it. Yeah, I don't think it could happen. I don't think it could happen with this administration. I don't think they would let it happen. But I would stay in ExxonMobil. I don't think it's overvalued and I do think that oil is coming lower. How much lower? I think you could trade to 45 or 50. It didn't do anything on Venezuela and now with Iran, I think that this will either escalate and we'll have a blow off top or it will. I was going to say disintegrate. That's not a great word. So it will, it will expire or evaporate on the upward side for this risk analysis to oil and I think that's probably where we're.
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Headed. Well, you know the Trump administration doesn't want oil prices to go Higher. You have that sort of built in right now. Absolutely, in a way, yes. For the administration who's desperately seeking affordability for the American.
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People. Right. And one of the bright spots has been that oil has really been much.
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Lower. Yes, much lower. So clearly that there's a motivation there. But I think I agree with everyone here, but I think it's that there's a rotation now. This has been out in the cold for a while and, and this is where there's value. And the team always talks about, you know, getting away from the Mag 7 and where else could you go? And here's one that's really been left for dead for a while and valuations, they started to move, but still they have so far to go. I still think there's a ton of value.
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B
There. That's where I think you have to go though, because I do think it at some point gets back to valuations. And I mentioned NAT Gas last night as places as part of this trade. What else works also in a world where there's, you know, some cap on utility prices in different parts of that trade. And, and I mentioned Cheniere and you know, it's trading at a 15% free cash flow yield. We know that there is maybe an overbuild on the NAT Gas side. All that's well in the price. I think there are places to play throughout. I also think the MLP is midstream. More utility like returns, have fantastic balance sheets, haven't overextended and I think are very interesting here. I will say the administration, President Trump has as a delicate balance though to strike between a very strong part of his base that that is in the shale producing parts of this country. I mean we're not terribly competitive below $60 a barrel in terms of oil, in terms of Shell and Permian and big important parts of the production base in the United.
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States. Yeah, we cannot forget about gold and silver. I mean, yes, it's sort of a separate story, but they are rallying two records. It's the second record close for.
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Gold. Different reasons, but yes, we should bring them up and I think we've done a good job collectively around this. And silver is on the cusp of having a triple digit which obviously we've never seen before. But all the things we talk about are working for gold and silver. They have not gone away. The fundamental story is still there. Central banks continue to buy it. Silver is an industrial metal, as Steve has said a number of different times. And you know, I just, I don't think we're Just getting started. But I think if you fade this, I think you do it at your own peril. I also just think that we have more inflation out there than we're showing and I think we're seeing that in industrial metals prices. So I think gold, I don't see what stops gold. I see rallies that could have, you know, 5 to 10% pullbacks in gold. I also see maybe not the strongest hands in silver and possibly new gold investors that could get shaken out. But back to the central bank thing, I think it's worth repeating. China, who's made a point about diversification, has only got 8% gold reserves of their total reserve base. Germany's at 80, Italy's at 75. Now, I'm not saying China's getting there, but why wouldn't China continue to be pushing it here? And why wouldn't the rest of the world, frankly? I mean, with all that's going on around here, this is, this is a hedge for geopolitics right now. And boy, the last two weeks have told you everything. I agree with the gold, but the. When you look at silver, there's a supply demand deficit. They missed by 100 million to 300 million ounces per year on a deficit. So there's a real supply demand issue with silver. You don't get that with.
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Gold. Let's get to tech now, IGV, you've got to get there. The iShare software ETF down over 2% and renewed concerns over AI's threat to the industry. The Chartmaster today reiterating his January 5th call to be underweight. The tech sector advising clients to trim long positions and add to shorts. Let's get the technical take now with Carter Braxton. Worth of worth charting. Carter, what do you see here.
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Team? Yeah, likewise. So, you know, it's messy. I think the first thing we know before we look at the charts is that the tech sector's relative performance peaked October 30th. So we're into a third month of underperformance to the market. But within the sector, it's software course that's really taking the hit. Maybe we can pull up some charts and try to figure out the way forward together. This is a two panel. It's the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF on top that has of course, big names in it like Adobe and Microsoft and Palantir. And on the bottom panel is relative performance, the S and P. And you can see even as it's going higher from 2020 to 2026, its relative performance peaked five years ago, which is really quite remarkable. It's the definition of no alpha. But let's look at the ETF itself. Three identical charts. One way to annotate it, that has the elements of a top. Whether you want to call it a head and shoulders or not, it's what a reversal looks like, a second iteration. You have a well defined trend line in effect since the tariff low and we have breached that trend line, third and final, you have what would be called of course converging trend line. Some people like to call it a triangle, a wedge. It doesn't matter what it is, it all sets up, I think for more of the same, which is poor relative performance. So the thought was in the first research report of the year to be emphatic and just say underweight.
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Technology. There are so many stocks in this sector that are just flat on their back. That's to put it nicely. I mean there is Snowflake, there is Workday, there is. I mean which one to you looks the.
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Weakest? Well, I think maybe the way to answer that is the most important of course is Microsoft. And it is such so heavy here, acts so poorly. I think that's the one obviously to watch. The others are obviously well known names, but they just don't have the cap and the import that Microsoft does. The fact that Microsoft and other key names like Meta, like Netflix and so forth are in such straits, if you will. I think the message as we see the exact opposite with Walmart surging and Exxon surging, there's a message for the.
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Market. All right, Carter, great to see you. Thank you. Carter Braxton Worth of worth charting. Not everyone is a seller of software. Our next guest sees bargains in the space and says the AI scare narrative is not tied to reality. Gil Lauria is the head of technology research at Dave Davidson and is out with a note today on software valuations. Gil, great to have you with us. I take it that you heard Carter's analysis of the space. It's not a very rosy picture in terms of performance past or performance future. So why do you think this group, what are the fundamentals that will drive this group higher when they've seen such underperformance for the past five.
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Years? Yeah, the simple reality that software businesses are still the best type of businesses. They are recurring revenue businesses that scale well at very high incremental margins. None of that has changed. The good news is we used to talk about software companies a multiple of revenue and who can really tell the difference between six times revenue or eight Times revenue. We don't have to do that anymore. Software, we have great software business growing double digits 20% and higher that are now trading in the teens on cash flow, on the 20s on cash flow. Those are attractive price points and we don't have to fight Carter's charts. We're not calling a bottom on all of software. We're just being selective about the stocks that are so well, the companies that are doing well and their stocks are keep going down every day that we believe that if we continue to buy those there will be a rerating once this wave of negativity is over. Because again, there has been no impact on any of these companies. I has not disrupted or dislocated any software company. And if it doesn't do it this year, at some point we're going to scratch our heads and say isn't just a disruptive technology that good companies are going to adapt well to and bad companies are not going to adapt well too. So if we buy the good ones, they're going to do well. I guilt so Adobe made its all time high in I think the fall of 2021. Think about that for a second and think what the market's done in the meantime. And we're trading the levels that we last saw in the fall of 2022. What's the bull case here other than the fact that technically we're hitting what should be support and you can make a, you make a decent case on valuation. So the bull case on Adobe is for all of the negativity around AI, Adobe's growth has actually held up better than the overall software universe. Their growth has decelerated from maybe 12%, 11% or 10% over the last three years, which is to say that really strong recurring revenue business that's embedded in every marketing organization and every agency has held up really well. And to your point, the stock has not. It's now trading at low teens multiples on earnings and cash flow. If they just keep doing what they're doing, which is grow 10% this year, then it's not going to be sustainable that their stock will continue to be this inexpensive. Which isn't to call for a catalyst here. They're just going to keep doing what they're doing. It's the narrative that's been very negative about Adobe. Again, without evidence, they haven't lost any business to AI, nor does it look like they're going to lose business to AI this.
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Year. What's your take on the Oracle? The bondholders lawsuit with Oracle. They allege that, you know, there might have been a malfeasance, maybe there should have been more disclosure at the very least because they bought these bonds in September and then several weeks later Oracle went out to raise another $38 billion. They feel cheated. Is this going to be an overhang as companies go again and again to the debt market to.
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Finance? Yeah. Oracle overextended itself for OpenAI. OpenAI promised them the moon and then Oracle realized that OpenAI actually had promised everybody el else the moon as well. And then they over borrowed to build infrastructure. They're now at the very bottom, they're approaching the bottom rungs of investment grade, they're approaching the ceiling of debt ratio and yet they need to borrow more in order to deliver on these commitments. So they put themselves in a real bind. The stock's gone down a lot, their debt is trading at a discount and, and it's not too surprising that recent debt holders feel like this isn't what they bargained for when they bought the bonds a few months.
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Ago. Gil, it's Karen, just going back. First of all, thanks for being on. But going back to the earlier conversation is there for, let's say for Adobe, is there a churn or a renewal number that you would look at and say, oh, all right, that, that's.
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Concerning? Yeah, if the revenue starts decelerating significantly from here or if they can't hang on to those best in class margins, we could start worrying about that. But Adobe has had competition from the likes of Canva and Figma for a while. Those companies are doing very well on their own. But Adobe again has still been able to maintain its revenue growth better than Salesforce, better than Oracle, better than a lot of other companies. But there's this persistent narrative that they're a big AI loser. In spite of the fact that they add value so much more than just creating an image or a video, they've been left for dead. That's reflected in the multiples. And if, let's say they actually have accelerating revenue growth, let's just say they go from 10% growth to 11% growth. Because it budgets looks to loosen up this year, the stock could get rerated very quickly. Let's not forget two years ago is trading in the 30s on earnings on very similar growth.
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Rates. You know Gil, when you said that, you know, this year we'll find out if I was truly disruptive and whether or not it will have disrupted the software industry. If we find out a year from now, we're sitting here next January and find out that There was an additional, There was not additional churn to software customers because of AI, that I wasn't all that that was cracked up to be that we had anticipated in terms of the impact on software. Does that mean the trade didn't work, that AI itself was not cracked up to be, and so therefore other parts of the market should inherently be.
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B
Weaker. Actually, there's a world where AI does phenomenally well, and these software companies still do well. Let's not forget we all love these AI tools. They are phenomenally potent tools. And every day we get a new tool that's even more potent than the one before. But the reality is that we're using these tools, we've brought them to work, we use them in our personal life. That's very different than enterprise technology being replaced by vibe coding, which is where the narrative is. If you've ever bought software or sold software, you know that selling and buying software at an enterprise level is a lot more than vibe coding something. So we could have a world where we're all using AI, we need a lot more data centers, we need a lot more compute capacity. And yet enterprise software, good enterprise software companies actually do better. We could have the best of both worlds. And there's stocks in the middle of this that are going to do well anyway. Microsoft Azure growing 40%, accelerating. Snowflake growing in the high 20s, accelerating. Data Dog growing in the high 20s, Accelerating. All these companies are going to do well with AI without AI. And those are the stocks we're really focused on because we don't even have to make a leap about narrative changing. These are companies that are doing so phenomenally well and yet their stocks go down every.
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A
Day. Right. Gil, great to chat with you. Thank you, Gil. Laurie Davidson, what is wrong with Microsoft in your.
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View? Well, it's interesting again, thrown on a list of stocks that go down every day. There's Microsoft and, and there was a time we would a lot of criticism on the multiple. And I think, you know, I think you can actually start to have a valuation argument in favor. Remember, software budgets, what I'm understanding on the enterprise side, are growing somewhere around nine and a half percent a year. The allocation to software for enterprise is, is not getting smaller, it's getting bigger. And there's no question Microsoft is as powerful as they have ever been. I like Microsoft here. You know, Microsoft, I agree. But you know, when you look a little bit deeper in the names, Microsoft will always have buyers in that name. When you look at Snowflake, that's back to levels that we saw August 2025. I think that gets interesting. Palantir already had that sell off pretty recently. I think this one could rally back above 200. And then another interesting one is ServiceNow. That's back to May 2024 levels on. On a technicals. If it's going to bounce, this would be a great spot for it to.
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Start. You know, talk about your.
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Junk. No, I was going to talk about my junk. Although I'm more than happy to. Or you ever been called Snowflake? That bother you? You know, I was going to pay you a compliment. Now not so much. What I was going to say was, you know, people know Tim is this steely blue eyed emerging market specialist, as they should. Okay. But they don't realize that in sort of the off hour. He's a vibe coder. You just don't like to tell people that. No, look, I mean, it would be too much for them. I think so I just try to keep it to myself. Too much for.
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Me. Coming up, more big bank moves today. The latest batch of results weighing on Wells Fargo, bank of America and Citigroup. And what a potential credit card rate cap could mean for the group. Plus a potential trading ban. The latest on the bill looking to stop lawmakers from stock picking. And who's going to be most impacted? Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back in two. Thy ticket, lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times. With the times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good.
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B
Right? Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, Based on the February 2025 Nielsen.
- [22:42]
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Report. Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just Trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and power players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money. Bummer for the banks. Wells Fargo, bank of America and Citi all dropping after their earnings reports this morning. Wells Fargo missing estimates as severance costs drove up expenses. Shares were down 4.6%. Bank of America and Citi both beat expectations. But concerns over their credit card portfolios tied to a potential rate cap sent shares sharply lower. Reports of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on tap for tomorrow. Was it just the setup going in, Karen? I think that's most of it. I mean we always hate to see that set up going in. And so it was exceptionally bad. I think this time because they had such a huge.
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Run. I think you know, each one.
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Had a little bit different things. I was surprised Citi got hit as hard as it did. I think the credit card thing.
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Is more problematic for.
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Them. At the very end they sort of tried to temper expectations. I think that was a little bit of it. But I think they were sort of all overdone going in. This reaction all over done going out. We'll see what the credit card is it going to be one year, 10% for only. 10% cap for only new accounts. Right. If that is the case, that's a far different thing. So I think it's somewhat overdone and I like Citibank here, you know, short some calls. Those are going to go away worthless. I would look to probably replace them. I think it's.
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B
Overdone. I agree on the city front for sure. But you know bank of America for Crackstaff and EC Michael Figuene can put this up. We're at levels we thank you Tim in 2006 for bank of America so you have a major double top. You also have a stock that you know at its zenith was trading almost two times tangible book which I don't think they're deserving of. And if they're deserving of it, Citi is definitely worthy of one and a half or 1.6. So I like Citi better than.
- [25:27]
A
Bank. Some were disappointed by the NII guide for bank of America so that could be part of.
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B
It. Yeah and I would although net interest income came in above some forecasts but the the margin of expansion was less than expected. And I do think that NIMs are an important part of what the story been for moneycenter banks. But there's no question Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have A different story to tell than moneycenter banks. And the world of deregulation has not been dereg for money center banks. I think we're going to get rate numbers, especially given all that's going on in capital markets. If the reason for the latest weakness is more about what you just said to Tim or more about the cap on 10% on interest rates, those are two totally different things. So yes, the, the, the entrance of, of earnings while we've had such a stellar performance on D WRAG and everything that the Trump administration brought in. But I don't believe that the cap on rates is even going to take place. I don't think that'll happen. So if that last leg of downward draft is happening because of that, that's a buying.
- [26:26]
A
Opportunity. I sort of think that Goldman Sachs is up more than any of them on the expectation. I mean, Citi had some great numbers from there. More.
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B
Goldman. I'm just talking about the new. You're right, you're set up. Being more important than the news itself is absolutely more important for Goldman. You're right. But I did the news flow over the last couple of days is. Doesn't affect Goldman. As far as I'm.
- [26:47]
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Concerned. There's no credit card cap. Right. And Goldman was down less. Yeah. Right. So Goldman is very near its peak. Peak. And if you look at JP Morgan, it's off.
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20. That makes you think it's vulnerable.
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Correct. Just that people know, wow, for these guys that's where you want to be. I mean, you know, in the investment banking. Trading. Investment banking. Right. When you saw cities trading. Yeah. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up.
- [27:10]
B
Next. Landmark legislation in Washington as Congress looks to ban stock trading by lawmakers. The latest on the vote and the legislators that could be most affected. Plus commercial real estate at an inflection point. What our next guest sees in store for the space and why he's flagging a potential refinance risk. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after.
- [27:38]
A
This. Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Getth with the times, with the tines. You're playing the loot. Yeah. And it sounds pretty good.
- [28:06]
B
Right? Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen.
- [28:13]
A
Report here at Blue apron. We know exactly how hectic school nights can be. That's why we created Assemble and Bake delicious one pan meals that make family dinner simple. Just assemble the pre chopped ingredients and put the pan in the oven to bake. Then you're free to help out with that last minute diorama shop. Assemble and bake@blueapron.com get 50% off your first two orders with code apron50. Terms and conditions apply. Visit blueapron.com terms for more. Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu welcome back to Fast Money, a GOP backed bill that would ban lawmakers from adding stocks to their current portfolios, passing a key hurdle in the house. CNBC's Emily Wilkins has got the details on this. Emily hey Melissa. Well, yeah, this ban on lawmakers buying new stocks was approved by a House panel today and is expected to get a vote on the House floor soon. Now the bill still faces a number of hurdles, namely growing opposition from Democrats who say that the bill has a lot of loopholes. Lawmakers, they don't need to divest their assets. They can still buy commodities futures and diversified funds. Plus they can still sell funds if they give funds, if they give seven days public notice. And of course, they can use dividends to buy more shares of stocks. All things that Democrats do not want to see. But look, this would be the first stock trading ban to get a vote on the House floor. Lawmakers have been working on this issue for years, and that is because in part, the levels of trading that go on. You know Nancy Pelosi and her husband who does a lot of stock tradition trades, they're probably the most prominent examples of trading in Congress. But if you look at the tracker on capital trades from the past year, this is not a partisan issue. You're seeing members there of both parties that have made thousands of trades. And while insider trading is hard to prove, there are many cases like lawmakers who sold off a ton of stock before COVID 19 crashed the markets that look very suspicious and have helped really increase the number of lawmakers who support a ban and want to be able to vote on Something. Melissa Emily, on the wall there, there was a 4,000 trades in one year. Ro Khanna 4,000 trades in one year dot Made all the trades that it's. Yeah. That it's in. Some of these members say, look, it's not me. It's, you know, the person who manages my finances or it's a spouse or a partner. But the fact of the matter is that a lot of lawmakers say, look, the perception is there and we don't truly know. There's no way to really verify exactly who did this or exactly what information that they had. And the lawmakers have just told me this doesn't look good. We can't do it anymore. Right. But to be specific, this is just Congress and it doesn't apply to cabinet officials or even the president. It doesn't. And that's another reason Dems are upset with this bill. They're going to offer their own but of course they're in the minority right now, so not a huge chance that it passes. Sure. Emily. Thank you. Emily Wilkins. I would love to have Ro Khanna on and see what he is trading that often. I mean, for 4,200 trades in one year, imagine you're making 10 trades a day at.
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B
Least. And he's here, he's here 250.
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A
Trading days or 200 trading.
- [31:58]
B
Days. But you know, let's just talk about the average person on the Hill. They're not involved in any conversations. They're not hearing anything. I mean, I don't understand why they this isn't bipartisan. Where's the problem? I think it's appalling. I don't and I think the rest of the world is held by a different standard and it's outrageous. But let's take it back. We all, everyone agrees with that statement. But take it back. All they're going to do is go into a dark pool. All they're going to do is do it into a fund. No, I then they can be held accountable. I mean, but I actually traced into a dark pool. But right now I could trace it. I have no I think technicals always show.
- [32:34]
A
Transparency. You think that I'd rather have.
- [32:36]
B
Transparency. I think insider trading always shows up in technical whatever. You know, how you look around the table. Except for when it's not insider trading, in other words, except for when it's not material and on public information when in fact you are someone that is not held by the system. But there's a Pelosi tracker. No, no, I'm not disagreeing with anything. What I'M saying is it goes into I can't see it anymore. I'd rather transparency of having a Pelosi tracker so that I could actually see what she's buying and what they're buying and what pharma companies they're buying. I think there's an element to it that you're shining a light on. Even though they're doing something to ferrous. Is that so that you can actually you can coattail those trades? I'm trying to understand. I mean the more everyone knows that it's not insider information anymore. Right. If the retail audience gets to see exactly what they're doing, it's not insider.
- [33:21]
A
Information. Everyone knows but they are making those trades with information. It was when they traded to anybody.
- [33:25]
B
Else. Yes. And then you could trail them and you could make it.
- [33:28]
A
Too. But when you have it, you will never make that same.
- [33:30]
B
Trade. No, no, no, no, you would never. We'll never see it again. And these guys are smart enough and ladies are smart enough that we're not going to see it. They're going to have it in blind trust. Someone's going to do it. Someone's. You're going to leak it. How do you follow their spouses? How do you follow their kids? It's always going to be there. But when you, when you limit how it's there, I think it goes down a rabbit hole. I'd rather see it this. It's a bad idea. I don't like insider trading. I don't like anything about it. But it's at least it's transparent. Jane Street's always looking for a few good traders. I mean, you know, I mean road, you know he should show up.
- [33:59]
A
Down in his spare time. Apparently he's got some spare time to make trades. Coming up, the next move in commercial real estate. What our next guest sees in store for this industry this year where he's seeing the most opportunity. Fast money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks down for a second straight day as more bank earnings filtered in. The dow down about 42 points. The S and P losing half a % in the NASDAQ. Leading the losses down 1%. Shares of intel meantime jumping another 3% today. The stock is already up more than 32% this year, trading near two year highs. And shares of Novo Nordisk lower today. The company's CEO weighing in on potential acquisitions at the J.P. morgan Health Care conference saying they are ready to go very big in their hunt for a deal in the obesity drug space. Novo has been staging a Bit of a comeback this year though, up 16% in January alone. By the way, do not miss our interview tomorrow with the CEO of Structured Therapeutics, Ray Stevens, on the back of positive phase 2 data of the company's oral weight loss drug. That is tomorrow right here on Fast money. So you won't want to miss that. Well, maturing commercial real estate debt is set to peak at nearly $1.3 trillion in 2027, according to S and P Global. And the industry is facing a refinancing reality check with interest rates still well above pre pandemic levels. For more on CRE in the year ahead, Petrie CEO Greg Friedman joins us now. Greg, great to have you here.
- [35:20]
B
On set. Yeah, thank you for.
- [35:21]
A
Having me. Today you say 2026 is an inflection, in what way? And how sharp is that inflection going.
- [35:26]
B
To be? Definitely. So going back three years ago now, they were talking about, you know, survive to 2025, which now we're past 2025 and we're in 2026. And I think it's now you've got to grind to 2029. In 2029 really just represents the fact that there's not a quick recovery to commercial real estate. It's going to take some time for commercial real estate to recovery. But the reality is there's been a lot of extend and pretend over the last three years with the banks, which make up about 50% of the commercial real estate debt market, as reported by Tripp. And banks have continued just to extend loans as a way to deal with the issues with commercial real estate assets. And now you face about a trillion dollars of loans just maturing in 2026, which is two times the normal amount of loans maturing. And they're maturing at much, you know, in an interest rate environment that's almost, you know, caught 50% to 100% higher than what they face.
- [36:19]
A
At origination. That does not sound like the setup for an inflection point in 2026. It sounds like a big comeuppance in 2026 for.
- [36:25]
B
The space. Yeah. So I think it's, it's an inflection point in the sense that finally I think you're going to start seeing assets trade because the market's been very muted just on assets being able to trade and really recalibrate to this new normal, you know, higher for longer long term interest rates. And that's where I really see the market being at that inflation inflection point that, you know, it's really not an issue with the fundamentals at the asset level, with the performance, it's more of an issue of broken balance sheets. And you know, at this, up until this point in time, I feel like we've just sort of extended out the issues versus dealing with them. Greg. The markets focus on Fed Fed rate cuts but in reality it's 10 year yield and everything out of that, you know, outside that duration that matters speaks to that. That's, that's right. Like the 10 year treasury is the risk free rate and the 10 years double what it was between 2010 to 2022. And as a very negative impact to the values of commercial real estate assets. And you've seen with just the drop in short term rates, you know, federal funds rates, you know, the 10 years remain elevated, it hasn't even come down. And I think that's going to be the case, you know, over the next, you know, over the next several years. And when you look at, you know, assets trading that have trade over the last three years, some of the cap rates are pretty astounding on the low side just because, you know, values haven't fully recalibrated to this new thought process that the 10 years and say.
- [37:44]
A
Above 4%. So you talked about some of the, like the class A stuff.
- [37:49]
B
Performing in the business, doing fine might be a balance sheet but for B.
- [37:52]
A
And C, which is a different story, particularly in New York, that is that that model isn't working. Do you see a ton of just turnover that you're expecting? A ton of turnover, buildings that have to.
- [38:03]
B
Get sold? Yeah. So I think, you know, buildings, I think when you look at office buildings, you know, specifically if, you know, if you're referencing office buildings, I think the class A is starting across the US you're starting to see them actually lease up. You know, there's more demand for that space really driven by the air trade. I mean that's helping, you know, get a lot of these office buildings. You know, you're starting to see stabilization on the, you know, really the class A office buildings, the class B and C are still challenged and there's still, you know, there's a bifurcation within the office space that's, you know, that has been taking place over the last year. I think it's becoming clearer now that you have a lot of winners within the office space where these are assets that should do well long term. You do have some challenges, you know, across certain buildings that probably are never going to recover just because, you know, the class B and class C buildings that just lack the Right locations, the right amenity set to ever, you know, get leased, lease back up. Greg, help us understand the timeline. Sounds like 26 is this period where stuff is happening and some of it not good. And so as you're gauging, even for investors watching the show tonight, whether they're professional retail that invest in commercial real estate, and there have been times again, you know, coming out of COVID where there was huge opportunities where things were mispriced and I'm, you know, so when's it's not all assets, but give us an idea in 26 when you actually think you're going to start to see some credit events are going to create blowouts that are going to create buying opportunities. I mean, it's, it's happening now. We're buying, I mean, because we're buying a lot of loans from banks. You know, we bought in 2025, we bought $600 million worth of loans. So the three, you know, caught $3 billion of loans that we originated or new debt investments that we made. 20% of that was loan purchases. That was the most that we've done since 2021. Going back to Covid in the place first, first half of 2021 and we bought a bunch of loans primarily on hotel assets that were in trouble. And you're starting to see that trade occur now where banks and other lenders are just selling off paper at discounts. So you're saying 3 billion face that you bought for 600. So trading at 20. No, no. So we originated. Yeah, I apologize. So we bought $600 million worth of loans that we bought probably on average a 10 to 20% discount off of face. And then we originated another $2.4 billion of loans that we originated. Just, you know, there were new loans that we made that were first mortgage loans that financed the acquisition, development of commercial real.
- [40:20]
A
Estate assets. Greg, great to get your perspective. Thank you so much for.
- [40:24]
B
Stopping by. Yeah, thank you for.
- [40:25]
A
Having me. Coming up, it's day three of our fast money trader acronym reveal. Julie Beal is in the wings with something she hopes isn't delusional. Plus, is there a new chartmaster in town. We'll explain when fast money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. It is day three of unveiling our 2026 Trader Acronyms. Today we have got Julie Beal with her picks. Now, Last year's Julie's MOCA acronym consisted of Moelis, Ollie's, Clearwater, Hermes, and Aon. It was down 9% in 2022. So, Julie, what do you think will turn things around for you. Now, you don't know, but I'm working with Delulu, so obviously it's very important to get good Gen Z slang into the investment community. And I take that responsibility really seriously. Delulu, in addition to being an acronym, is an onomatopoeia. It is what it sounds like. Delulu. The D is Descartes. You can think of this as the Bloomberg terminal for any kind of shipping, commercial shipping that you do. It's where all of the information and action happens. The E is for Enerpac. This is some nice small cap industrial exposure, but it's a quality name that's pretty durable. The L is for Lemaitre, which is a healthcare company that I think is well positioned, has lots of pricing power and kind of stays out of the regulatory crosswinds, which I think is pretty important in healthcare. The U is for uls, which is. You can think of it as like the Moody's for electric bulbs. They're the standards that tell you exactly what things are rated at or safety, et cetera. What's the other? The other L is LPL Financial, which I think is really nice exposure to kind of continuing equity markets and a little bit of an interest rate hedge kind of. And the U is Ulta. Ulta, I think is really well positioned to have a good uptick in demand from more makeup and the ability to really get that front of their store, really market it, really merchandise it. I think they're quite well positioned for the next year. I'm not sure if Julie really abided by the rules. I think she did great because I thought you were saying the Lulu, like the lulu. I didn't. I totally didn't get Delulu, like delusional. Delusionally. That's the thing. That's a thing.
- [42:38]
B
Yeah. Okay. Good.
- [42:39]
A
Work, Julie. Karen likes Ulta. Julie, thank you. By the way, we should mention that Courtney Garcia couldn't join us this week to reveal her acronym, but she gave us permission to lay out the trade on her behalf. Courtney's 2025 global trade finished fourth among the traders, up 20%. Alibaba led the way, up 76%. Goldman Sachs was next, gaining 57%. This year she is channeling Carter Wirth. Her acronym charts Caterpillar to play. AI driven power demand. Home Depot to benefit from the home improvement market. AstraZeneca to get exposure to global health care. Rio Tinto to take advantage of the growing trends in electrification. Electrification and decarbonization. Taiwan semi for chips and SLB to trade Global energy charts for Courtney Garcia. She couldn't deliver the acronym herself. She's too busy delivering her own.
- [43:28]
B
Baby.
- [43:29]
A
Yes. Yeah. So what do.
- [43:32]
B
You think? Well, I mean, I dig the charts. I mean, I just. Chart. Why not? Why not just chart? I mean, you don't have.
- [43:39]
A
Slb, which could be.
- [43:40]
B
Really good. I understand that. But at some point, why don't I just put down 25 letters? I don't want to be critical, of course, Courtney. Because if she wanted the. And she could have made it short. Oh, I'm sure you've started before. Why do you.
- [43:57]
A
Have to.
- [43:58]
B
Sounds awful. Why do you have.
- [44:00]
A
To sniffle? Go to break. Bitcoin staging a south rally to start the year. What our traders think is behind the recent bump and where the token is heading from here. More fast.
- [44:08]
B
Money.
- [44:08]
A
Into. The. Welcome back to Fast Money. Bitcoin continuing its climb higher, now trading above $97,000, up more than 10% over the last two weeks. And between pending crypto legislation, the approaching tariff ruling, and even the turmoil in Iran, our traders spotted several catalysts for the move. Steve, what do you make.
- [44:32]
B
Of this? Yeah, I think it's more of just the fiscal state that the US Is in right now. So if we have to, I guess tariffs have, have already produced maybe, maybe 300 billion to 50 to 300 billion. So the fiscal state probably takes a dip if tariffs are rejected. And then you have, you know, the issue with gold and silver rallying. So I think this is just an alt rally. I think both of them have their near term catalysts. I think this is more about the SCOTUS decision versus the congressional regulatory framework. I think this was just, it was oversold. I mean, I think we had a leverage dynamic. I think we had a momentum dynamic. I think we had a couple major players that had to be dumping. And I do think that there are a lot of people out there. Excuse me, I did. People are laughing for some reason and I'll let people decide why that might be happening. But I do think that there, this bitcoin crypto bill that is being discussed right now is a catalyst. You've got a lot of people in Washington that want to see this go through. More regulation means.
- [45:30]
A
Higher prices. Karen. Agree. Agree on both. I think that overdone. And then the clarity bill.
- [45:37]
B
And then some of these other things.
- [45:38]
A
And maybe there's a little Fed independence in.
- [45:40]
B
There somewhere. What was so funny? A lot of people are dumping Tim and it comes in. Comes on the heels of you sharding. It's obviously in your head stand up for.
- [45:49]
A
The camera. I didn't know because of my sharding 30 seconds ago and it's horrendous. Up next, trades. Time for the.
- [46:03]
B
Final trade. Tim the humor tonight was really a little off color, but if you need to powder up, go to.
- [46:10]
A
Estee Lauder. Karen yes, Citibank down over $10 in the last few days. I think it's overdone. I.
- [46:16]
B
Like it. Steven Exxon seems a little extended here, but I think you got a little more left. Guy so we've had four or five reveals. Two of the five I think did not follow. It's amazing. And we were sort of, we were adamant about rule following every year it happens. It's unbelievable. Yeah, I'm sorry. Guy rigged, I think continues to.
- [46:34]
A
Work here. Melissa Lee alright, thanks for watching Fast See you back here tomorrow at 5 for more Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy or but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at.