← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fast Money 1/6/26
00:43:23
Listen to our traders take you behind the money...how to play the volatility...pops and drops and the movers you missed. Fast Money Disclaimer
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A
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities, and even another passenger. Or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member SIPC not every sale happens at the register. Before AT&T business Wireless checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time.
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B
Sometimes AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything.
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C
Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A storage surge, the demand for AI bumping up shares of SanDisk, Western did Seagate and more. But how much higher can these stocks run? And going global, how the capture of Venezuela's president is impacting investment opportunities in Latin America and across the world. Plus, Netflix is chill as shares hit nine month lows. Copper keeps climbing to new records. And we'll talk to RO CEO Zach Wright Tano as his company brings WeGovy's weight loss pill to its platform. What the first in kind treatment means for the industry. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio BE at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Gai Adami and Rebecca Patterson, former chief strategist at Bridgewater Associates. Welcome, Rebecca. Thank you. We start off with some major headlines out of the chip space. Nvidia giving up early gains after unveiling its debut suite of autonomous driving tech at the Consumer Electronics show last night. AMD shares meantime dropping even after CEO Lisa Su reaffirmed her company's commitment to hiring AI forward Word talent. The real moneymakers today though were the memory names. SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate soaring to all time highs. It's SanDisk's second best day since being spun off from Western Digital last February. The name's riding high as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the increased need for memory across the AI product stack. Today's move adding to recent momentum in the space. SanDisk nearly tripling in just the last three months while Western did Seagate making significant gains as well. Now once Upon a time all these names were commodity names. Boom and bust cycle. But is it possible that we are actually entering a phase where these names are completely rerated, that the bust part of the cycle is gone, dampened, you know, lessened?
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B
Well if it's a super cycle, it has room for I think a lot of demand for a longer period of time and a higher growth rate and therefore a sustainable growth rate, which means it RE rates. And if you look at the multiples on these stocks, they have rerated. I mean no place to look other than Micron which was always one of these value plays that you didn't want to buy it when it's cheap. And it's so it's funny because like commodities, we're going to talk about commodities as we talk to the rest of the world. You don't really buy commodity companies when they're cheap either. And I think that's how you should feel, one should feel about what's going on in the tech space and I mean specifically around what's going on in storage. And I just think it's fascinating for all that's been said about the tech trade and what's been around the AI buildout, semiconductors make not only new all time highs, so just the semiconductor portion of it, even without Nvidia really exerting muscle, making all time highs today, making new relative highs and guy up almost 13% against the S and P since Thanksgiving. Gobble gobble, gobble gobble. So you know, for, for, for all that's been said about what happened to this trade, it's just shifted to other players. And if you look down into that SMH and, or the semiconductor stocks index and the weightings in there, some of these names aren't big weightings at least relative to the top of the leaderboard in there. And I think there's even some more room to go.
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C
Should there be a handoff though. I mean if you have in video for the past, I don't know what you want to call 10 weeks or so, just sort of bumping along, not doing much. And there's skepticism around that part of the trade. Can you actually see these storage names go higher anyway or should they trade more in tandem?
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D
Well, I'll say this, I did not see the move in micro, I mean this move in Micron is historic by any standard. And to your point, you go back to a long term chart of Micron and you'll see boom and bust. Highly cyclical, makes sense when it's its cheapest on valuation is typically when you want to avoid it now, seemingly everything has changed. There's this new paradigm. But when a stock goes from basically want to say $124 or five months ago to where it is now in this environment with that type of backdrop, again, highly commoditized, highly cyclical, I think that's a little problematic. What the stock market is saying it's different this time. I'm not entirely sure that it is.
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E
Yeah. On the cyclicality front, I mean, these are not that difficult to make. I mean, that's a big part of it, right? The memory, right. So when you think about relative to, let's say high end GPUs and really, you know, this is about performance. It's about, you know, a whole host of things by making these chips more efficient. And that's really where the memory of the storage, that sort of stuff comes into. So that's one of the reasons why I think they've always traded at these multiples. When you think about what's going on right now and you think about from a stock market perspective, okay, Nvidia has really calmed down on a day like today with all of those announcements with the bullishness out of Jensen Huang, you think the stock would trade better. It's still trading in this range that it's been in really since August. And you know, listen, there's a case to be made if Masa at Softbank is selling his Nvidia so he can buy other things like Open AI. It doesn't, you know, I mean, it's not, should not come as a huge surprise that other investors are doing the same thing. I just think the action that's going on in like a Sandisk or Western Digital or Seagate, it just doesn't feel that natural.
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B
Right.
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E
And so if you're seeing a stalling out of some of these other names, the flip side of that is all this is great for Taiwan Semi, right? I know that's a name that you've been very focused on, Tim. Taiwan Semi had been rangebound. It just broke out on this, right. So everything comes up roses for Taiwan Semi. But some of these other names, I just don't know how you can go out and chase them. And Sanders in particular. I don't know if people are short this thing. I don't know if it's something technical with the spin out of Western Digital, they're one of large shareholders, but that looks like an all out frenzy, like a short squeeze.
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F
See, I'm with you, Dan. I, I'm not a bottom up stock picker. So I know what I don't know, but I look at the move in the stock, I'm saying I don't understand how that continues. I don't even understand how it got here. So to me it seems like there is a very healthy rotation going on between some of these names and is spreading out of the market, which I think is great news because that can help us avoid a bubble bursting ultimately. But we still have the risks that some of these companies that are not making profits yet struggle at some point over the next 12, 18 months to raise the cash they need to get to the holy ground on the other side. Everything's going down together. And if that happens, do you want to be chasing a name that is at the end of the day, very commoditized? So if you held it and you enjoyed this, good for you. Would I want to buy it here and keep chasing it? Not with what I know could be ahead of us.
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B
I think the points that are being made here. Right. And again, back to these commodity comparisons, because what always happens with commodity part of the reason there's this boom bust cycle is because when things are scarce, there's always a supply response. And so when you look at what Sandisk is saying, they're talking about 2027 and a ramp up and meanwhile we're talking about growth of 2 to 3% on unit growth. So I'm kind of, you know, if I sounded crazy bullish a second ago, it was really more just saying that I think that the tech trade, as evidenced by the semiconductors, continue to lead the market. But there are places in here where I do think things are, you know, you have to be very careful. I do think as we get back to in video and where they continue to be involved in places or part of infrastructure deals or getting involved in things that include, you know, driverless automation, these are things that for core investors, you start to wonder whether are we really reaching to find more reasons to want to own in video. But I do think that the move in a number of these names is encouraging and that the broadening we are expecting is something that continues.
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C
I also thought the autonomous driving talk, all the talk about the physical AI, the robots, all those things are incremental to the Nvidia story. So why so much emphasis in the CBS address on that to your sounded.
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B
Like an Elon Musk move, almost a.
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C
Little bit like, hey, look out here we've got this also. But in terms of the response, I mean, that's because all these guys are Increasing capacity. All they are building out, including SK, Hynix and Samsung. I mean it's not just the US players here. It's a global market for memory.
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D
I'm glad. Yes. And let's go back to Taiwan semi for a second because they clearly win all of this without question. But think about this for a second, Warren. Berkshire Hathaway got into Taiwan semi. I think the fall of 2022 is around October, November. They exited in the spring of 23. On what concerns geopolitical concerns. Now obviously the concerns are still there, but that was the wrong thing to do at the time. But doesn't mean they've necessarily gone away. So as important as Taiwan semi is, God forbid something were to happen between China and Taiwan, this whole thing starts to unravel very quickly.
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E
Our friend Brian Kelly, we just call him. Remember he used to say that chips are the new oil. Remember that? He used to do that. He was like kind of a commodities guys. Yes, that a lot. I mean they are right. When you think about like if you just talk about the politics of what happened over the weekend with Venezuela, you think about how much oil reserves they have and how much might be pumped in if there is any disruption in the supply chain, as you know, and we got a little glimpse of this Covid, this global economy is going to be set back dramatically. If you think about, I think autos, the average auto has like a thousand chips in them, like that sort of thing. And that's just autos like think that do all the things Tim has like a smart refrigerator and all sort of stuff.
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B
Who does it?
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E
But I mean like literally you could count off like a thousand consumer goods right where this stuff goes in and not even the most important stuff. So if oil used to be this kind of asset that almost every major, you know, nation needs, not just for consumption domestically, but also as they think about how they exert power globally, I mean chips are probably right now 100 times more important.
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F
I'll just jump in on that because you have President Xi Jinping of China and President Trump supposedly meeting this April. President Xi Jinping has leverage in terms of rare earth minerals magnets that we need. What does Venezuela do to that conversation? Because China has a lot of interest in Venezuela. They get a lot of oil from Venezuela. They have a lot of infrastructure, satellite infrastructure in Venezuela. They're not going to be very happy about this. Does that change the tone? Does it mean that we should have a greater risk premium over something like a tsmc?
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B
Absolutely.
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F
Maybe the risk has gone up right well, just saying.
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B
I agree with that and I think that's what guy was saying. Taiwan semi is one of the same guy Ish. I'm going to give you credit card.
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E
She just said it's smarter giving you.
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B
Credit for a smart thought because you know, and Taiwan semi is one of the largest positions in idf. And I think one of the first responses I had was Venezuela is all about China. It's not about, it's not about Russian forces there. We're not worried about oil, all about China, it's all about magnets. It's all about the control of rare earths and some part of the oil industry that goes through Venezuela. So you have to start thinking about the different pieces of the long. If this is really about US China, everything's about US China. And absolutely if it's that strategically important for the US to go do what they did. And I won't get into the politics because there are plenty of people that have been expecting this to happen for a long time. It's because of the dynamics that we're talking about and everything we're talking about with not only the air, but obviously defense as it exists in drone warfare and all the other things that are the high tech component of what rare earths are a major part of. It's what this is all about. Therefore, I do think as someone that is generally quite bullish on China, thinks China tech is cheap and thinks that the cyclicality of some of this trade is something that's a longer cycle. I was worried Sunday night and I was worried about some of these trades. I also think that Korea, which 40% of their index in the Cosby and you can buy this in the EW Y ETF by the way, is all chips. I mean Samsung, call it what you want, they arguably are the largest diversified chip maker in the world. And I think it's actually good for some of these other Asian players to be part of that diversification trade.
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C
For more on the surge in storage names in particular, Evercore, isi Amit, Arianna. He joins us now. He covers Seagate as well as Western digital. Amit, great to have you with us. I know that you've been listening into our conversation, but I'm just wondering, you know, why, why is it different this time around? Why is, why is it no longer a boom and bust cycle for these names? Is that cycle gone? I mean, do you think that there's a re. Whenever somebody says there's a rerating or a super cycle, I feel like that's maybe the top of the trade.
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D
Fair enough.
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G
I'll try not to say this time is different in the discussion. Now listen, and I think the answer to what you're saying is different depending on are you talking about DRAM, NAND or HDDs? Right. They all have a different cadence to it. On the HDD side, Seagate investment, it's a little bit easier to see you have a duopoly between two companies, Seagate and Western did, and they both are absolutely committed to not adding supply. It's also nice that they both are US traded companies. The investor base is aligned pretty well. Right. That entire discussion of oligopoly, limiting capacity, addition, helping pricing becomes less powerful in fairness as you go into NAND and dram. But you have six to eight companies and you potentially have companies that are in the US and Korea and Japan and China doing it right. So I don't see it's your point of cycles. What I would say is, I feel good saying it's very unlikely you will get a supply driven cycle on the side especially. But that does not stop you from having a demand driven cycle, which means at some point customers will say, I have too many cities on the dram. I want to take a bit of a pause. I think the demand cycles will be there. Hopefully the supply cycle starts to get a bit more muted.
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C
The Jensen Huang comments yesterday at CES regarding the need for memory, does that make you increase your estimates or does that just reaffirm the story?
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G
You know what, I think it gives you more duration to the bullish narrative. Right? To your point, everyone's going to look at these names, be that CEO Sanders, the West saying it's going to be great, but I don't know when the music will end. And the comments you heard yesterday essentially tells you that there's potentially a longer duration than just calendar 26, maybe leads into calendar 27 as well. So I think the comments, what you're hearing right now, yes, give you more visibility, more confidence. It's a multi year story where it says it's towards the end of it.
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D
I mean on the supply side, what are the barriers of entry for participants maybe wanting to get into the space and other sectors? The barriers of entry are 5 to 10 years. What are they in sort of this dram nand world, you know, it really ranges.
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G
Right. I think on the NAND side, to the extent you can get semicap equipment, you can get tools from a lab, from a tailor and so on, you can actually start to build up capacity probably 2, 3, 4 years, some in the 2, 4 year, 2 to 4 year zone I would say is where you are on the NAN side. The probably gets a little bit more difficult, a bit more difficult companies to add capacity very quickly because a lot of the components that you need to build it up, equipment you need to build up is itself in short supply. HDDs, in fairness, it's very hard I think for anyone to come into the space that probably will remain a Western Seagate, maybe Toshiba as a smaller player there, but I'd say two to four years generally to add more capacity. Probably easier to do it in NAND just because you have six to eight players. A bit more difficult to do on HCD where you have only two companies like nand.
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E
Amy, you were very careful not to say it's different this time. He kind of said it. So let me, let me ask you this. So when you see this sort of performance in a Western Digital Seagate, I know you've been coming covering the space for a very long time. What did almost every investor miss until like last month on these two stories? Because it seems like if you were watching the way this trade over the last three years has kind of moved, right? It started with Nvidia as a hyperscalers. Okay, what goes into the data centers, right. Well that was obviously people knew. It takes memory, it takes storage, it takes, you know, all that sort of why did this just happen over the last few months and why did so many investors miss it until recently?
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G
You know, part of this I would tell you that it's almost like the lens of investments, investments you want to make in AI keeps getting broader and broader. And to your point, as you go from compute to storage and networking, you start to look at these picks and shovels play, right. I think the part that's really become very obvious on the memory side right now is these companies are absolutely committed to not adding capacity. That's the part that perhaps is giving folks more confidence in saying I'll take Western Digital example, hey, they can do 12 to $13 of earnings. And if you really can underwrite that kind of earnings power because no one's going to add capacity, no one's going to mess up the pricing equation. Then on a 12, $13 EPS story, despite the run up you've seen on the driving example, these are still relatively speaking attractive value stocks in the ecosystem versus not if you believe that EPS can scale up to 12, 13 bucks at Western dates or 80 to $20.
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C
What are your price targets for Seagate and Western Digital.
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G
For Western digs, it's about 260 for Seagate, it's 370.
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C
Okay, so we're, we're, there's still a little bit tomorrow here.
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D
You got that?
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C
Tomorrow it could be, it could be in one. I mean the ascent of, of the climb, I mean is, it's not alarming to you at all.
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G
And the fact that some of these stocks are up 20 to 40% for this year already is sort of, you know, it's extremely impressive. Actually stands out a bit, I could say. Listen, there's an element of this that might be more short covering. That's a play which is not certainly what you've seen here today is very, very notable. But if these companies are not going to add capacity, they're not going to mess up on pricing. This is not going to reverse back very quickly. But 20 to 40% returns are great for a full year. These stocks have done it in three, four, three to four days.
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C
Yeah. Amit, thanks for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate it. Amit Dariana of Evercore ISI all right, so we got that out of the way in terms of the surge that we've seen in storage. The companies though that make cooling, they had some very big moves as well today based on some comments that also from Jensen Huang yesterday saying essentially that the racks of its next gen Rubin chips could maintain temperatures without cooling systems, without as many cooling systems. Shares of Modine manufacturing fell nearly 21% at the lows. Johnson Controls Trane Technologies down as much as 11%. We mentioned this because this has been the part of the data center, exact part of the data center. Break them apart and how quickly things can change based on the technology and.
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B
Improvements in technology, Tim, especially when you might be one or two kind of derivatives away from the trade. And so look, I mean train, we could have been talking about housing five years ago and this was a great story. It's been a great story. There's also been parts of the datacenter trade as you extrapolate. We had a great segment on here, I don't know, a month and a half ago with one of the old school industrial analysts in the space. In other words, a lot of experience took apart the data center, looked at the pieces, looked at those parts that actually hadn't moved. And it does make some sense that this is still whether it's what's going on with build out on the grid, but build out in power in a capacity across this country. I still think these are really interesting trades. I still think these companies should be Trading at a higher multiple.
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D
But.
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B
But. Well said and noted, Melissa. But I would also just point out back to like a Scandisk and a Western DID versus a Micro Mike. A Micron, sorry is that those companies are trading at 3 or 4 times their 5 and 10 year P E. In other words they're not even close. Whereas Micron is actually trading at a discount to its 5 and 10 year PS and I think that's probably where investors should be following their leads.
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C
Right. Although the point there was that Western Digital Seagate, they're the duopolis or the all controlling capacity. Right. As opposed to a Micron where it's much more of a commodity.
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D
I forget what my acronym was that had Johnson Controls and it was it.
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C
No, you didn't have. You didn't have a J in your acronym.
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B
Great name Jerk. Was it?
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D
No. Tim.
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C
Sorry John.
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D
Great company Diversified. So it's not just about this but if our Crackstaff and EC can do a 25 year chart you will see that we just recently traded up to a prior all time high that we made many, many moons ago. So that for technicians there is going to be quite alarming.
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C
All right.
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E
I would say one thing that's interesting to me is like Qualcomm joined the party today. Texan joined the party today. These are not stocks that I think a lot of folks would associate with this trade. Texas instruments was a 8%. Just shows you that investors are reaching right here.
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C
All right, let's get to Netflix here. Not acting very chill down for a fifth day in the last six trading sessions it's lost 3% to start the year. Nearly 10% since announcing its acquisition of Warner Brothers Discoveries film and streaming assets a month ago. What is investors so worried about the stock? Dan, you flagged this so I'll go to you on this one.
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E
I didn't flag it.
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B
I do some flagging. Although I guess I went and got a better read the rundown either.
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E
So I. Let's go to Tim on this.
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B
Well, it's, it's a combination of price to perfection. I mean all we did was talk about how great the company was executing and that actually it was, you know, it had the scale, it had the ability to grow in international markets. The content scalability, that was a proven dynamic and suddenly now they want to pay up a lot for content. They get a lot more complicated. Forget the fact that it changes the balance sheet a little bit, it just changes the business model a little bit. I think this is an overhang that stays with the stock. I think Investors should though be looking in the mid-70s, which is really at the start of where that breakout went up to the 130s.
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C
Coming up, heavy metal rocky in the new year where traders see Dr. Copper heading in 2026 and will the miners come along for the ride? Plus 2025 was in crypto's year, but could that change in the new year? And which coin will lead the gains? Why Ripple might be the token to watch. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
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B
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H
Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge.
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C
Well, many thanks good sir. Here is my Discover card.
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I
They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs.
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C
Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Geth with the times.
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B
With the times.
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A
You're playing the lute.
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C
Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?
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B
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
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E
Before we had AT&T business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn. An influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business wireless routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though.
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B
AT&T business wireless connecting changes everything.
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C
Welcome back to Fast money copper topping $13,000 a ton for the first time on the London Metal Exchange. CME Copper also hitting a record high. Supply concerns and tariff uncertainty driving the industrial metals move higher. Miners also coming along for the ride. Names like Southern Copper, Freeport, McMorran, BHP all rising today. Tim, you've been very hot on the metal trade.
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B
Well, copper miners, you know, we'll talk about gold and silver and you know that trade is up almost 55% in the last since really mid August. But copper miners are up 80 and it's a lot of different things going on because we've had a lot of volatility in the copper price. Now we have more certainty in the copper price. And what I think you're going to see with the miners is the same thing you saw with the Gold miners, which is that the analyst community now has the ability to, to begin to model out at more predictable. And maybe it's not. I mean spikes in oil prices are often bad for the input prices in oil in analyst models. But I think copper analysts are not at five bucks a pound. They just aren't. And they're probably more like, you know, 375 to 4, which is where I think a lot of people thought it was going to get back to. I think copper not only for all the, the structural reasons we talk about electricity grid and one up, but the politics of copper. The politics of copper were always a supply disruption and a mine and a strike in Peru or in Grasberg or in Indonesia. Now it's a strategic asset. It's very much a part of this. It's not a rare earth, but it's certainly a part of this industrial trade that's also strategic.
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C
There's also the sort of technical aspect of the copper trade nowadays. Copper having come to the United States before, you know, when, when there is a thought that there's going to be tariffs, people move the metal here to the United States. They bought it here and that's causing else disruptions elsewhere. Exactly. Disruptions elsewhere in demand elsewhere for prices to go higher.
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F
The one thing that I just, I'm having a nervous breakdown in my little corner of the circle here, if I can say that, is that I traded commodities during 0809 for JP Morgan, for the private bank. And you learn very quickly that gold and oil are liquid, relatively speaking. Everything else is a fraction of the liquidity. So it goes more on the way up, but it also goes more on the way down. So right now I completely agree with you. The picture for copper for, for most of the metals is very strong and copper is different. Right, because of the strategic asset notion. But I just think if you have worries over the AI trade and the data center build out, if you have a tariff disruption of some sort. I'm not even sure what that would look like. This thing can pull back very fast in a tactical way like short term pullback. And I would just be mindful of that for people watching that own it, but be ready for some volume along the way.
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B
The door.
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F
Thank you. Yes.
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D
Stairs up, elevator down is what you're saying. And that's true in commodities. I'll say this and I think Tim would agree. As important as crude oil to the global economy, copper is right there as well. So there's clear things going on. Southern copper, all Time High Freeport McMoRan I think if not it was made in 2008. That's on its source. And gold mining stocks are saying that the gold rally is not ending anytime soon. Look what Newman look what the GDX did today.
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B
Mel this is very inflationary too. You know, the impact of copper and global inflation is real. And I think we haven't even started to see it feed through to end prices and everything from housing to construction and whatnot.
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C
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [27:10]
B
The breakout crypto trade for 2026. The token soaring more than 20% over the past week and what's fueling the surge. Plus what changes in Venezuela mean for oil and the economy and what a potential trade deal between Europe and Latin America could mean for markets. Rebecca Patterson goes global. To get some answers, you're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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C
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What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure.
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Trailblazing women, changing the game.
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One of my favorite pieces of advice.
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C
Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
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It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
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Life is short and you just gotta.
- [28:17]
F
Think big to accomplish big things.
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A
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and power players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
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C
Welcome back to Fast Money. The Bitwise XRP ETF ripping in the year's first three trading days up more than 23%. CNBC's MacKenzie Segalus is the details on what has been left behind. The move.
- [28:38]
E
Come on. Welcome.
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I
Thank you.
- [28:43]
C
So what's the deal with XRP?
- [28:45]
J
The breakout trade of the 2026 crypto rally isn't bitcoin or ether. It is XRP.
- [28:50]
C
Now.
- [28:51]
J
The token tied to Ripple is up more than 20% over the past week, pushing past Binance's BNB coin to become the third largest cryptocurrency by market value. And even with the broader crypto complex pulling back today, XRP has been the quiet outperformer for months now. The use case here is payments, specifically cross border settlement. Ripple designed XRP as a Bridge asset. When a bank or payments provider needs to move value from dollars to yen, XRP can sit in the middle and help settle that transfer in seconds instead of days. Now it's aimed at financial institutions and payment Rails, which is a very different pitch from Bitcoin's digital gold narrative. And unlike stablecoins which are basically tokenized dollars, XRP is trying to be the exchange layer that moves value between currencies. So money's moving into XRP for three big reasons. First, the regulatory overhang has finally cleared. Ripple has fully wrapped up its SEC fight as of August. Second, it's a less crowded trade than Bitcoin or Ether. And third, the flows have held up. Even during the Q4 dip, investors kept adding to XRP focused funds. Well, Bitcoin ETF flows fell with the price.
- [30:00]
C
How do you think the declines in Bitcoin and Etherium fit into this? And specifically, you know, these are two coins that have been wrapped up in digital asset treasury companies. And so there's this whole concern that there's going to be for selling. So there's sort of that dynamic hanging over, you know, just the decline in those assets in particular. And so maybe it's not surprising that investors are seeking an alternative within the crypto space.
- [30:25]
J
Precisely in nine days from now, the MSCI is going to decide whether names like Strategy can remain as part of the index. You might see other for selling as part of that. And then you've got XRP where there's just a lot more upside. And yes, they're coming from a lower base, but that's part of why when you saw the spot Bitcoin ETF selling off in Q4 and all these net outflows, XRP accumulation was quietly gaining momentum.
- [30:49]
F
I like the narrative on xrp, but I'm questioning the timing. To have banks doing cross border payments and settlements with the blockchain to me still feels like quite a ways away. I mean right now there's a lot of talks at the bank for International Settlements and other multinational institutions about how do we have interoperability, how do we make this work. They haven't even figured out what the rails look like, what the rules of the road look like. Europe and the US don't agree. God knows what China wants to do. So are you buying it now? Knowing that again, I feel like broken record here with my copper comment. It's going to go down and up a lot before this is not a straight line at all. I feel like it's more of a hedge against the decision coming from msci. I think that's part of it.
- [31:32]
J
Certainly they want to be the swift of, you know, the international banking system. But at the same time, we're waiting for, to your point, rules of the road. And so the crypto market infrastructure bill which we've been talking about for a full year now, still in the markup stage in the Senate, but that is what a lot of pent up demand is meant to come from. When that is passed, it will open up the doors to what Wall street can do with respect to custody these coins.
- [31:54]
C
Mac, great to see you. Thank you. Mackenzie Seagalas in town, in town, in person. Irl, did you want to know?
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B
We're good.
- [32:03]
C
All right. Coming up, 2025 was a big year for international investing. But are there some opportunities overseas? Rebecca Patterson is laying out what she is seeing and how to play the early action in the emerging markets. Fast MONEY back into. Welcome back to FAST money. Oil majors like Exxon, Chevron and Conoco pulling back after yesterday's rally. But precious metals higher again after the US Capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Our guest trader continues to like gold but is not chasing the oil stocks. So what's your take on global markets, on the oil trade after what happened this weekend?
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F
Well, on oil, certainly the White House would like to see the US Capture, so to speak, more of the reserve opportunity in Venezuela. But if you look at the sentiment of the oil majors right now, Trump opened the door, but that doesn't mean they walk through the door. Right. Prices are low. We've got brent at around $61 a barrel, down 20% almost in the last year. You've got sentiment among the majors. That's poor. If you look at the Dallas Fed quarterly survey, only a third of them are Planning to increase CapEx this year. 20% plan to increase headcount this year. So this is not a group looking to take a lot of risk. And Venezuela is serious risk in terms of the politics, the government on the ground, et cetera. So you know, are they going to continue rallying if there's no new opportunity for them and oil prices are lower, even the US government, the EIA is forecasting Brent down another 10% this year. So that's why I'm not that eager to chase the oil companies. What I am eager to do. Tim, Seymour, you'll hear this.
- [33:38]
B
Okay, I'm here.
- [33:38]
F
Is yes, you my friend.
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H
Okay.
- [33:41]
F
I still like em. I'm with you on that. They had a great year last year and I think there's still upside for a Lot. Maybe not every country. Argentina's currency needs more intervention, I think maybe. But generally the emerging markets are doing pretty well now. The trade needs to keep working for things like South Korea to work. But Brazil is up year to date. Mexico is up year to date. Currency and stock market, despite Venezuela, well.
- [34:07]
B
I think which has outperformed the S and p by about 30% off of its lows, but certainly about 7 or 8% in the last month is driven by a weaker Fed, better currencies, fiscal adjustments that were done. We're not in a global growth scare. We're actually in a. Probably in a period where global, some global acceleration. We're looking at EPS trends around the world that are better. So I like it too. I do think certain parts of Asia are interesting. I think Latin America, not only is it fascinating for what's going on in Venezuela, but it's fascinating for Brazil. Brazilian elections, Colombian elections in May. And if you expect to see a continuation of kind of failed socialist democratic political order, that could be a boon for Latin America too. I think in the medium, long term it's very bullish. I think in the short term I like Latin America. I really do like Korea here. I do think also parts of just kind of the commodity trade attached to it is very good.
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D
Well, I think the fundamentals for oil stocks were in place before all this. But I understand what Rebecca is saying. But with that said, maybe the moves were exaggerated yesterday, but I think it's just to me just a matter of time before all these stocks do well. And ewz from the beginning, January of last year.
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G
Ew.
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D
Zed. I do say Zed. Well, that's what.
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E
You know Zed.
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B
Yeah, yeah.
- [35:22]
D
Mel knows Zed. Who? Zed.
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C
Zed.
- [35:25]
B
That's dead.
- [35:25]
D
Yeah.
- [35:26]
C
It's not a person.
- [35:26]
D
Zed is actually a Pulp Fiction.
- [35:28]
C
Z is a person.
- [35:29]
D
Well, he was.
- [35:32]
E
Now.
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B
Yeah.
- [35:32]
D
He's dead anyhow.
- [35:34]
C
After though.
- [35:34]
B
Yes.
- [35:35]
C
Okay, so he's not.
- [35:36]
B
Don't get.
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C
Sorry.
- [35:37]
B
No, don't get pulled.
- [35:37]
C
Anyway.
- [35:38]
F
You think oil stocks do well even though oil prices are going.
- [35:42]
D
Yeah, well, I don't. If they go to. If they go much lower than 55 WTI, we have a problem, especially for domestic Permian people.
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F
The EA's forecast.
- [35:51]
D
But WTI, the EIA is there with respect. They're not the great, the greatest forecast. They sort of rival the Fed in terms of forecasting. But you know, a static oil price here, given balance sheets, given fundamentals and just given the margins, I think the stocks do well and valuations coming up.
- [36:07]
C
Novo's weight loss pill has hit the markets. Rocio Zach Waitano joins us next to detail the rollout on his platform, why he says it will spark a big year for GLP1. Fast money's back in June. Welcome back to Fast money. Novo Nordisk rising 2% to lock in a third straight day in the green shares, adding to gains after the company's Wegovy pill hit the market yesterday. It's also the first time that any GLP1 drug has launched direct to consumer on day one with Ro among Novo's chosen telehealth partners. For more on the launch, Ro Zack Raytano joins us here on set. Zach, welcome. Great to see you.
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H
Thanks for having us.
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C
So what have you seen on your own platform in terms of uptake and interest?
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H
There's a tremendous amount of demand and I think, as you said, there's so many reasons to be excited about this. I think we're ushering in a new era of, of digital health care. Right. So for the first time ever, a new oral GLP1 is the first and only. Right. It's $149 for the first dose we were talking about 18 months ago, 1300 dollars. It's come down 80 to 90% from an efficacy perspective for those on treatment, it matched the injectable. So patients aren't trading off anymore and someone can now go from diagnosis to delivery in 48 hours or less. They see an ad, they go to road.co, it's at their home and they can start for $149. So it's quite a special moment.
- [37:20]
C
I know it's early days, but what are you seeing in terms of people switching from the injectables versus the total addressable market actually growing?
- [37:27]
H
There's been talk of like, is this going to be cannibalistic, Is it going to expand the market? I think it's majority going to massively expand the market. You're going to see both the, the individuals that we think are best suited for the pill. And we've already seen this in Insights and already in, in 48 hours, you have a group of people who are needle hesitant or needle phobic. Right. You have another group of maintainers, as you just mentioned. These are people who are going to switch from a GLP1 injectable to the oral. And these are people who maybe they have some injection fatigue, maybe it's cumbersome to, to travel with. But the larger market of the group that we refer to as GLP1 curious. And these are people who are been. We think there's tens of millions of people who have been waiting on the sidelines. The majority of the US population tries and fails to lose weight every year. And historically they've been four or five hundred dollars in an injectable. Now you have this $149 oral medication that has the same weight loss. It's far less intimidating and we think that's going to bring a lot of people in. And the other thing that we think this will do, in addition to expanding the market, is dramatically reduce the stigma to taking prescription weight loss. Because you go from are you on the shot which a lot of people talk about and ask to which GLP1 are you on? And when you go from a binary question to that spectrum, we think it'll have a massive impact on that.
- [38:42]
E
I'd say as you know, happy robot, you know, lovely guy here, you look great.
- [38:46]
C
Thank you.
- [38:48]
E
I don't get paid but I just.
- [38:50]
C
Want the compliments that you know.
- [38:52]
E
But honestly though, okay, so I've been on the shot for a while.
- [38:55]
B
What would you.
- [38:56]
E
Why would I take the pill? You know what I mean? Like what is the thing and what are you guys hearing about this?
- [39:01]
H
A lot of people do and we've seen this in the data where they'll be a little reluctant to take the injection but then they get used to it. But you do see after a year or two years, not everyone, but some people do have injection fatigue or they travel a lot and it's a little cumbersome or they take other pills and they want to naturally fold this in. And I think that that is a perfect fit for the maintainers for that. For that group that's already on an injectable and prefers a pill.
- [39:24]
C
Do you foresee at some point where most people will not be on the injectables? I mean it's going to come down to price probably and ease. I mean you have it's powerful combination to have in one product.
- [39:38]
H
Yeah, you're exactly right.
- [39:40]
B
Right.
- [39:40]
H
When patients look at what product they want, they're looking at cost, quality and convenience. Can I afford it? What's the efficacy and how convenient it is. The amazing thing about Novos pill here in addition to launching on row is that a patient isn't trading off. Right. They have the same weight loss that 16, 17%. It's less expensive and for many it's a preferred form factor. So I think you're going to see it as a massive entry point for a lot of people as on a multi year time horizon. Why Would someone be on a pill or an injectable? You're going to see both preference, but also at those higher BMIs, you're going to see injectables where you're starting to see 20, 25, 30, even more weight loss. So for the patients that need that, they might start with a pill and see if they can get there and then upgrade to an injectable. So I think you're going to see more personalization over time as more options come to market.
- [40:28]
C
Are you already in talks with Eli Lilly about ORFO and offering that on your platform?
- [40:32]
H
I think you've seen both companies be quite proactive in the innovation around their distribution models and I think you're seeing them take a very, very patient centric approach here.
- [40:41]
C
Zach, great to see you. Thanks so much for having me sharing your insights. Zachary Tano of R.O.
- [40:45]
D
We love Zach. Yeah, Novo, real quick, bearish, bullish reversal, I think. And if you look at where it traded down to we got to levels we saw in the fall of 2022. I mean for the longest time we're trying to identify what might have been a bottom. We finally may have seen it. They report, not that it matters on February 4th, but they finally seemingly have some wind behind their back.
- [41:03]
B
Yeah. And the announcement by the FDA a month or so ago really was part of that, that move. And again, what Zach just explained in terms of what makes this interesting is the dynamic of accessibility. But then get it back to Novo. One of the biggest issues they had in round one of when this thing was soaring is their limited ability to produce and keep up with demand and they've invested heavily in production that I think this time might be different. I'm long the stock. I actually believe in this as a major player and a major move higher from here. I think we've just begun to fight in the stock.
- [41:36]
C
I think what is sort of if you think about the accessibility now of these treatments, the longer term cost of health care is going to come down dramatically if that total addressable market actually expands.
- [41:47]
B
Let's hope.
- [41:48]
F
Yeah, yeah, no, that would be great. We need it.
- [41:51]
C
Coming up, an IPO revival. 2025 saw over 200 startups make their market debut. But could this year be even bigger? The companies to watch, including what could be the largest IPO ever. More Fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Nominations are officially open for CNBC's annual Disruptor 50 list. And many of the previous honorees could be getting ready to hit the public markets this year. Julia Borson is here.
- [42:19]
D
I mean Got a clap.
- [42:20]
G
Come on.
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C
With a return of the IPO in what lies ahead.
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I
Julia, Melissa, great to be here. The most enthusiastic show on CBC by far. Now, as the IPO market slowly makes a comeback, the Disruptor 50 list gives us a snapshot of which companies could go public next. Now, 2025 had more than 200 IPOs at the highest number since 2021, which had 397. Last year, five disruptor 50 companies went public. Figment, Navon, Chime, Klarna and Wealthfront with a total current market capitalization of $46 billion. So now the IPO market is expected to open up even further. Renaissance Capital, estimating that this year there will be between 200 and 230 IPOs. Space X, which topped the list twice with a current valuation of $800 billion, has an 85% chance of filing for an IPO this year, according to Kalsheet. Now it's reportedly targeting a 1 1/2 trillion dollar IPO this year, which would be the largest IPO ever by far. Now, a number of other Disruptor 50 companies could also file to go public this year, including numbers three and four on last year's list, Databricks and Anthropic, along with Discord, which last made the list back in 2024, Kalshee predicts around a 60 to 70% chance for those companies to file for an IPO before year end. So which companies are going to be the next round of IPOs? Keep an eye on the next Disruptor 50 list. Nominations are now open at cnbc.com/disruptors.
- [43:54]
C
Interesting. Anthropic is up there. There are some questions about Open Air. Open Air was on the list, correct?
- [44:00]
I
It has been on the list. It was number one on the list. Last year we had Palantir number one on the list. They're expected to go public eventually. So I think for a lot of these companies. I'm sorry, not Palantir, Andrew, on the list, Palantir, a previous disruptor that also went public. But the defense. The reason I said Palantir is because the defense tech sector was really prominent on last year's list and was, you know, number one, had the number one spot last year and is expected to continue to be prominent this year.
- [44:26]
C
Julia, great to see you in person.
- [44:28]
D
I. Princeton.
- [44:29]
B
Tremendous.
- [44:30]
C
Yes, yes.
- [44:31]
E
You know, Andrew, which that would be so interesting. We're so sick of talking about the same four defense contractors for the last 50 years. And this is one of the most innovative companies out there. And you know, aside from Space X and these ones that are going to come at a trillion dollar. I want to see some of these smaller companies. I want to see like 5, 6, 7 trillion billion dollar market cap, non unicorn. Yeah. My good friend Jeff Richards at notable and he's a VC and he was just telling me today there's just dozens and dozens of really innovative companies that people like you on CNBC aren't even thinking about or talking about. I want to see those, I want.
- [45:01]
G
To talk about those.
- [45:02]
C
But all of this of course goes to the bank trade which is at record highs.
- [45:06]
D
And we just had the Hebrew, I mean Hebrew hammer. Call me Matt Fried. And he said, what's going on?
- [45:11]
C
Right? Yeah, yeah.
- [45:12]
D
No, I love them.
- [45:13]
F
Clear.
- [45:13]
D
They said, what's going on with Goldman Sachs? He works there. I'm like exactly what you're just saying. I mean Goldman is going higher.
- [45:19]
F
Yeah. I mean in banks we've got a regulatory backdrop, we've got a steep yield curve, we've got a consumer that's hanging in there. And now we have IPOs. Banks are going to benefit.
- [45:30]
C
Up next, final trades. Let's go around the horn 10.
- [45:38]
B
Gold, copper, iron ore, you name it, Rio Tinto has it, they produce it and I love the balance sheet.
- [45:44]
C
Rebecca, great to have you.
- [45:46]
F
Thank you. Kbw. I think we have a nice window for the banks still even here.
- [45:51]
C
Dan.
- [45:51]
E
Yeah, Home Depot. I think it's put in a near.
- [45:53]
D
Term bottom GDX sister.
- [45:56]
C
All right, thanks for watching fast. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
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A
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them. Television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer not sure if you have the experience to start your dream job. Good news, these days it's the skills that count. Udemy can help you get those in demand. Skills? Want to be an AI mastermind? Learn with us. Game developer. We've got you covered. AWS certified Cloud practitioner. We can help you prep. You'll learn from real world experts who love what they do so that you can love what you do. Go to udemy.com for the skills to get you started and get set for your dream job.