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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
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Tim Seymour
Figures, about $10,000 a month.
Melissa Lee
Over $500,000 since its beginning.
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Karen Feinerman
There's a tremendous amount of opportunity out.
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Guy Adami
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Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ Market Site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. It is a very special night here on Fast Money. We've got company. 100 plus die hard fans from three countries. Over 30 states are here, folks all the way from Alaska, Hawaii, even Ireland. And they're part of our audience for this very special Fast Money live event. Guy Dami is coming to set. Take your questions so get ready. But first, here's what's on tap tonight. The fallout from Nvidia, the Semi stocks 8/ percent drop dragging down the broader market, sending the NASDAQ within a whisker of its election day close. So what does last night's big earnings report say about the state of the trade and the future for big tech? And with the S and P now back negative for the year, we're taking the pulse of the retail trader. Charles Schwab's head of trading services will join us here on set with his view on investor sentiment and what those folks are doing with their money right now. Plus, Starbucks shares perk up under Brian Nichols stewardship, Visa charges to a new record and Lyft gets a little lift. A little too late for Tim's blycep though.
Karen Feinerman
Oh boy.
Melissa Lee
Welcome everybody. I'm Melissa Lee here in Studio B. We've got a super sized desk here for this extra special show. Steve Grasso, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. And what a night we've got on tap here, right? I mean, let's give the audience a round of applause.
Steve Grasso
Yes, we can't hear the audience. Make some noise back there. There's a delay. Watch how loud it's about to get.
Melissa Lee
It is amazing. It is amazing. We're so glad that everybody's here to share this special day. We start off with a late day sell off that sent the Nasdaq down nearly 3% today. The tech heavy index posting its lowest close since election day and now just half a percent away from erasing all of its post election gains for the first time. The big drag in video down 8 1/2% for its biggest loss since the deep sea scare a month ago. The darling shedding more than $270 billion in market cap just today is now over 20% off its record high from early this year. The move coming after the company's hotly anticipated earnings report last night. Weak margin guidance overshadowing top and bottom line beats. So was this the report that broke the back of the market guy? What do you think?
Steve Grasso
I don't know if it broke the back, but in the short term it clearly did. And you go back, we talked about this in January, that quarter they reported you had the engulfing pattern. The next day we said technically that looks like two times we saw last year and both times resulted in anywhere from a 25 to a 40% decline. And we're in the midst of one now. The quarter was fine. It's an indictment of the quarter. The numbers are staggering but it's the magnitudes of the beats that are getting smaller. And one of my concerns was margin deceleration. And you saw it. Now people will explain it away and say, well reaccelerate today the market shot first and ask questions later.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, and they told you that margins were in a decelerate. So to me it wasn't a big surprise. I actually just make this one point is looking at the post market, looking at the pre market and taking your cues off of that is not really a great example. The stock opened up today, you know, for me it was that there was not an upward earnings revision for the first time, I want to say in eight quarters. There was nothing wrong with the quarter or the guidance or the commentary. It's just there was so much, much enthusiasm in this one stock as a pure play on this secular shift that the stock has been telling you for nine months that it's going to take a time, it's going to take a time out and it's digesting a little bit. So to me, I Think the price action today made some sense. I would have expected it to be down 5% right after that conference call because there was no there there.
Melissa Lee
What were we talking about as the test that yesterday you take a look at Horseshoe.
Guy Adami
Arnold Horsheck, welcome back.
Melissa Lee
Exactly. But, but that's what this test, that's what this earnings report was. Because it happened in the context of a market that wanted to see the holes in the story, that had a lot of doubts, that they're worried about the uncertainties involved with tariffs and chip exports and things like that.
Karen Feinerman
You know, is the blue dress, gold dress? Exactly right. So I, like Dan, had my own view that actually is different than Dan's, which isn't surprising. I thought the call was actually pretty good. I think that the margin story, I absolutely believe we're talking about Blackwell, which is this is the first quarter that they really started to ramp up 11 billion doll. And I think that they've talked about how difficult it was, how complex it was. And so that's expensive. And so that means margins aren't where they're going to be. I bought, I believe, the story of 71, let's call it, which was the disappointment in the margin story, which weighed on the stock, I believe that could go up a few hundred basis points. So to me, nothing was. I thought the call was good. And, you know, last night when I looked at it last, it was sort of up a little flattish. Nothing really happened. So I don't think that the story unwound today. I think some other things happened as well. Maybe there were those who were really hoping for something big and had options and they just had whatever sell that could be. But I think it was also the uncertainty about the China tariff situation. So that weighed on it as well. So I don't know, I don't want to get too distracted by what I think is really not a monumental event.
Melissa Lee
Close the lows of the session on very heavy volume. 60% average daily volume.
Guy Adami
It was the devil with the blue dress. And it's hard not to be distracted. And it's hard also to see where the semiconductors as a group closed through that intraday low on deep sea to 32 on the SMH is an area that I think everyone was kind of watching and they actually traded through to the bottom. And if you look at semis, and I say this a lot, which is, where have you been getting market leadership? You've been getting semi's leadership over QS or nasdaq, You've been getting leadership over The S and p from those two and you now have semiconductors that after today's -6 are down about 5% going all the way back to March of 2024. I don't think there was anything wrong. I don't think Nvidia could not have done anything differently with that number. And I think they massaged a lot of the information flow around global demand. And yes, as everyone has, has pointed out here, the margin story, which ticks down is expected to go higher in the second half of the year. I think this is about tariffs. I think this is about macro data we got this morning. We got terrible housing numbers. We got, we got PC embedded in the GDP report which was also not a great number. So ultimately I think some of this is macro market intelligence coming into this said this is one of the most bearish moments that the markets have had in months and today it played out.
Dan Nathan
I don't think it has anything to do with tariffs. Is it a small aspect? Yes. I think the major headwind is that you have, you have on the revenues over 40% is from four clients. Three of those four clients are making their own chips. If they pull away from this business. And by the way, all the other clients don't need the sophisticated chip that Blackwell provides for them. So you have an amd, so you have a gouty chip from Intel. For me it's about why don't you see where the stock can go. Probably 113 is where people are going to take a shot. That's the February 3rd low. But I think this thing dips below $100 and I think it's a commoditized business.
Melissa Lee
You're talking about the number of people working on their own chips. You got a list.
Tim Seymour
So Steve just made a couple. So it's all the usual suspects and you're going to kind of just knock them down one by one. But some of the like kind of third party folks who kind of, you know, kind of rate these things versus the others. I mean for inference, this is very different than the chips that are used for the training and models. And so once you've trained up the models, then you can start using a lower cost chip to do the inference for, you know, doing all the tasks and that sort of thing. So the CFO spent some time talking about it. They got questions about this and they see a huge opportunity there. Right. They built some great models on these, you know, high end GPUs. But the one issue that I have here about the margin as well come back To Karen, a little bit is like so Blackwell initially in the fall it was going to be there some bugs, there were some delays and now they got to go. And it's 30% of that data center number that we saw last night. Well, there's reports out that Rubin, the next generation is going to be six months earlier. So at the end of this year. Well, that's a very complicated architecture too and they're going to have to spend a lot of money to get that up and running. So when I hear something about will the gross margin pick up in the back half of the year, I don't like like back end stories, you know, you know what I'm saying? Like so to me I think it makes sense to be a little skeptical. A little skeptical right here.
Guy Adami
Yeah, sometimes not like back in seconds.
Steve Grasso
I mean not every back end story.
Tim Seymour
Back half loaded is what I meant.
Steve Grasso
Same thing. I'll say this real quick. You know, if you look at the smh, which is not the best constructed ETF of all time, but it's one we look at that made its all time high of July of last year and now we're breaking down the levels that we last saw in the fall of last year. That's problematic because much of this rally has been predicated on semis. And then Mike, Microsoft, which we all agree is one of the most important companies in the world, look at how poorly that's traded since over that same time frame. So below the surface damage is being done.
Melissa Lee
All right, we've got an earnings alert on Dell shares initially higher but now negative in the after hours after a mixed fourth quarter report. The conference call kicking off in less than half an hour. CNBC's Christina Parts nebulous. Got the numbers, Christina? Well, the conference call is actually underway.
Tim Seymour
They started about 30 minutes ago.
Melissa Lee
But Dell's server business business is equipped with Nvidia's powerful chips and business in that section is booming. That's why its infrastructure solutions group ISG is the fastest growing segment. Although Q4 sales did come in below estimates. Dell's chief operating officer says deals booked with Xai, that's Elon Musk's AI model and others put Dell's server backlog at $9 billion. Good news, these servers though include Nvidia's chips and management. Pointing out on the call just now, margins are actually lower with Blackwell than the previous iteration of Hopper chips. So that's, you know, weighing on gross margins for that section. Dell is also still highly exposed to traditional computers and servers. That's about 50% of their business management saying on the earnings call that they're still waiting for this PC refresh, especially transferring towards AI PCs and that the consumer still continues to be challenged. You got a mixed report too just in regards to their guidance, but shares really turning once this call went underway.
Tim Seymour
To talk about the challenge consumer and.
Melissa Lee
Margins for certain categories back.
Tim Seymour
Melissa.
Melissa Lee
All right, Christina, thank you. Christina. Parts and novelist Karen, you own this one?
Karen Feinerman
I do. I like Dell. I didn't love this quarter. I didn't get a chance to. I didn't hear the call obviously, but I will listen to it later. But you know, a little light on a couple of things. The PC refresh has been slower than we thought. Even, you know, the sexier part isg a little slower than thought. The guidance was very good in terms of eps. This doesn't make this an expensive stock. They're talking about 930. So it's, you know. Well, not even so I think there should be some support there. But I really want to hear the call and hear what, you know, where do they think we are in the AI boom?
Melissa Lee
Right. Let's get more in videos report in the state of the trade. Stifel's Ruben Roy joins us now. Ruben, great to have you with us here on set. What did you make of the quarter?
Ruben Roy
You know, within the context of all the moving parts going into the quarter, I really don't think it could have gone much better. I think Jensen and company, you know, laid out the vision, laid out the plan for the rest of the year and I think, you know, things really went well. You had technical issues for Blackwell, you had the deep seek event, you had tariffs and all kinds of things. And then you know, the overarching thing of theme of how long is this capex cycle going to happen? Or you know, how big can it get? And we went through December quarter earnings and every HyperScaler raised their CapEx pretty much. Right. Google went to $75 billion for the year from consensus expectations in the low 60s. So I think it went really well. Maybe a couple of things we could nitpick on margins and otherwise, but overall I think it was a great quarter.
Melissa Lee
Why do you think the markets are so skeptical? I mean, I imagine that today was a very busy day for you. You spent all day talking to investors and clients, etc. About this slide into the close. Yeah. How skeptical are people of the story at this point? Because it's obviously in video. Didn't say anything. Jensen went full court press. You know, he did the conference call Then he did a 20 minute interview on CNBC and the stock still slid into the close today.
Ruben Roy
Yeah, I think I heard the term, you know, shoot first, ask questions later. And you know, I think there's a lot of jitters in the marketplace. I mean, kind of what's next? We've got this event probably, you know, there is a little bit of a de risking, which is great, but then what?
Dominik Su
Right.
Ruben Roy
So in our view, we've got a catalyst coming up in a few weeks time and it is going to have their big tech conference, gtc, which I think is going to be really interesting in terms of product roadmaps, technology and otherwise. But you know, until then, what are we, what are we playing for? I guess short term is sort of what's, what's I think in the market today.
Guy Adami
Well, Ruben, maybe we're just playing for a valuation argument that at some point says this is really attractive, I mean, you know, relative to peers. And I would just say also help us understand within your coverage, especially in the semiconductor space, I mean, where would you rather be given at least? And the concerns around AI are certainly not places that I think there's really almost anyone else that can even be in this game. So talk about valuation and talk about relative value to the peer group.
Ruben Roy
I mean it was cheap this morning when we were pitching it to the two investors.
Guy Adami
Even better. Yeah, we got better.
Ruben Roy
We liked it this morning, we love it. Now down in the low 20s, next year's earnings. Right. And numbers didn't move much. Right. But you know, you have a ramp coming. We want to play for the Blackwell ramp. It has, it just started, it's going better than we thought, but second half, bigger ramp potentially. So a stock that's trading in the low 20s on forward earnings with, you know, margins, people are kind of complaining about 71% gross margins. I've been covering semiconductors for 25 years. That's pretty good. And as you guys know, Nvidia is not a chip company, it's a system software and solutions company. And I think margins are going to go back up into the mid-70s as Blackwell continues to ramp throughout the year. And you've got, you know, other things, networking coming back, software coming back, etc. So I think the stock's cheap. It's the best way to play AI computer. But yes, I think I investment, it's a broader investment cycle. There's networking companies out there, there's a lot of other companies that are, I think part of this, you know, boats rising with all tides that Nvidia really is driving. So we're still in kind of full bore investment cycle.
Karen Feinerman
So Reuben, thanks for being here. First of all, I thought he spent a lot of time on the call trying to talk about inference as actually needing much more compute than we had originally thought. And so how did you, did you buy that and how do you think that translates into the story?
Ruben Roy
Yeah, I do buy that. I am, you know, and it's not just Jensen talking about it. We talk about, we talk to supply chain folks, we talk to other users of, you know, various methods of AI compute. But I think something gets, gets lost is oh, you need a lot of compute for training and then we could do inference on our iPhones. I don't think it's that simple. I think the definition of inference across workloads is very wide and you know, there are inference use cases that require massive amounts of compute. And the other thing that's happening, I think deep SEQ is showing this is that the world's changing very quickly. Right when you get to post training models and we get to, you know, kind of distillation of other models and trying to figure out reasoning and otherwise there's a lot of compute intensity. So that's what's going on. I think, you know, the world really hasn't figured it out yet. So we talk about custom chips and custom solutions. I think Nvidia is, you know, kind of approach of a GPU which by nature is quite flexible and programmable and you know, workload independent. I think there's a lot of merit to that as we figure out where the workloads are going. I still think we're in the very early innings of, you know, an overall investment cycle and inference is in our opinion absolutely going to be a long tail investment cycle.
Melissa Lee
Ruben, thanks for coming by. Thank you, thanks for having Stifel. Steve, you have been out of Nvidia for a while is attempting, it's not.
Dan Nathan
Tempting only because after that Deep Sea headline, I know that people are still going to spend money. Those four clients are going to still spend the money, but they're also going to say if I could spend fractions of the price, we better be working on better chips ourselves. So it's not as Ruben said, it's not a chip company as a, as a solo, but it's been better, it's benefited from being a chip AI company and I think there's plenty of other companies you can go to now. We've all liked in video, we've, some of us have liked it since the teens. I'm not saying we hate it. We don't need hate mail. I think it's time to let it breeze. So if I had to say 91 50, I think 91st, remember this is.
Guy Adami
Videos, a stock that's overshot every single cycle in each direction. Remember In November of 21 to 22 it went down 65%. Nobody wanted to own it.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we're just getting started. In this special edition of Fast Money Live, our die hard fans have questions on stocks, trading techniques and much more. Hello fans. We're going to get them some answers next. But first, sipping on Starbucks chairs touching a three year high. As the coffee chain gets ready to make some cuts to their menu. What the changes could mean for the stock when Fast Money returns.
Tim Seymour
Great stuff.
Melissa Lee
Very good. Awesome.
Dominik Su
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Tim Seymour
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Tim Seymour
The $150 billion pet industry is booming as people absolutely love their dogs. If you're looking for a solid investment, Dogtopia is the name to know. With 300 locations across North America, it's the largest, leading and fastest growing pet franchise offering a recurring revenue membership model. Dogtopia offers safe, open play, dog daycare, boarding and spa services. Want a recession resistant franchise? Check out Dogtopia because every dog and dog parent deserve it. Go to dogtopia.com to learn more.
Melissa Lee
My side hustle brings in over six.
Tim Seymour
Figures, about $10,000 a month.
Melissa Lee
Over $500,000 since its beginning.
Tim Seymour
Find your hustle with CNBC. Make it's new online course how to start a side Hustle Three industry experts break down proven paths to success.
Karen Feinerman
There's a tremendous amount of opportunity out.
Tim Seymour
There and help you choose the one that fits your life schedule and goals.
Guy Adami
Find your own path to building multiple income Streams.
Tim Seymour
Register@cnbcmakeit.com side Hustle special offer ends April 1st.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Starbucks pouring up some gains today. Shares rising more than 1% and trading at levels not seen since January 2022. The gains coming ahead of next Tuesday's big menu changes, Starbucks planning to cut about one third of its items. Drinks on the chopping block include the Espresso Frappuccino.
Guy Adami
Oh, Guy, you're going to be ok.
Steve Grasso
I'm fine.
Melissa Lee
Ice lemonade.
Steve Grasso
That's projections.
Melissa Lee
And hot chocolate. So let's dish on what the changes mean for this. You should have seen the list of the drinks. It is insane. Chai Cran Frappuccino, Caramel ribbon crunch Cran Frappuccino. I mean, too much. Thank goodness they're, they're paring it down.
Guy Adami
Yeah, we joke because I know Guy really does like all those fancy drinks. I'm pretty much just a straight coffee guy. But getting back to what are the drivers for Starbucks? Here again you have a case with the new CEO and Brian Nicholl. Superstar. You've got a dynamic here, marketing Guy, but really it's been the operational dynamic. Streamlining this menu I think is part of it. The margin story is something that I think is still in question. But this stock's got a lot of good news price into it. I'm long, I'm happy. And that the, the cherry chai drink I think is something that I want to try.
Tim Seymour
I don't know what's interesting about this. And you know, I think they have the gap up here on the chart when they had that CEO change. You know, this is something. When Steve Jobs came back to Apple in 1997, he took a look at all the SKUs that they had and he got rid of like 85% of them or something like that. It really kind of set the stage to focus on the things that kind of made the company what it. And I think that's kind of what this new CEO wants to do. That being said, the stocks come a long way in a short period of time and we got to see the rubber hit the road.
Steve Grasso
Tim makes fun of me. You know, you understand the word projection because all the things that Tim likes, he's saying that I like. I get how that works. With that said, you know, we, if our crack staff and EC can put up a chart, you know, we've talked about this. Three year downtrend was broken about a month, month and a half ago. And it sets up for that prior all time high, which was I think in the summer so of 2021. Tim knows better than I, but 120. But I think at that point you got to be taking some chips off the table.
Melissa Lee
All right, we're going to take a quick break here, but Guy has got somewhere to be.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, yeah.
Melissa Lee
He's going to check in with their fans to get some of their questions for the traders. Also ahead, we'll go inside the mind of the retail trader. The head of Charles Schwab Trading Services will join us for a look into what they are seeing from users and where investors are putting their money to work. That and much more on our special edition of Fast Money. Back in two.
Tim Seymour
The $150 billion pet industry is booming as people absolutely love their dogs. If you're looking for a solid investment, Dogtopia is the name to with 300 locations across North America, it's the largest, leading and fastest growing pet franchise offering a recurring revenue membership model. Dogtopia offers safe open play, dog daycare, boarding and spa services. Want a recession resistant franchise? Check out Dogtopia because every dog and dog parent deserve it. Go to dogtopia.com to learn more. Find YOUR hustle CNBC make it's new online course, how to start a side Hustle. Three industry experts break down proven paths to success.
Melissa Lee
Get out there and do it.
Tim Seymour
Go to cnbcmakeit.com side hustle special offer ends April 1st.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got Guy on the ground with our fans. Most burning questions. Guy, what do you have?
Steve Grasso
I mean it is, it's a little crazy here, Mel. People are excited as they should be. We got questions. So I'm going to go to Dave. Dave, stand up in your question.
Melissa Lee
Thanks, Guy.
Guy Adami
We're really happy to be here and.
Tim Seymour
I hope I don't get in trouble with Melissa.
Ruben Roy
Would you rather, would you rather J.P.
Guy Adami
Morgan or Goldman Sachs?
Steve Grasso
Wow. J.P. morgan or Goldman Sachs? I'm going to answer that. I'm going to say Goldman Sachs because I work there and I love the people. But I guarantee Karen Feynman has a different answer. Karen, give it to me.
Karen Feinerman
Yes, you're right. I have a different answer. I would say J.P. morgan. I like that the business model is a little more recurring than Goldman Sachs which you know, is a trading desk and it's great and all of that when it's good. But would trade him a lower multiple. So JP Morgan and of course Jamie Dimon.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I mean it's remarkable. The love affair with Jamie Dimon is and he's watching right now. Shout out to Jamie Dimon. Love you, Jamie. We're here with Shiraz from Toronto. Shiraz, your question.
Tim Seymour
You know, I've been an old fan of Fast Money for many, many years and Guy, you're our favorite.
Steve Grasso
Listen, I'LL venmo you that money, but thank you.
Tim Seymour
My question's on Meta. You know, I've owned Meta for many years now and it's up a significant amount, a couple of hundred percent and holds a big chunk of the portfolio. And now for the last, you know, couple of days ago, it had a 20 day streak. And you guys on this set say, you know, it's the best MAGA stock and people say you should let your winners run. But my problem I have is it keeps marching higher and higher each time and what should I do?
Steve Grasso
You went to the Peter Jennings class of question asking. You know, the questions are longer than the answers. This is great for Steve Grasso. This is all about portfolio management. Steve, what does he do?
Dan Nathan
So when you got into the trade, you have to ask yourself, how much am I looking to make off of this trade? So you want to give yourself a profit, but you started off saying it's become a considerable percentage of your portfolio. What was it when you established the position? Because you should in theory bring it back down to that same percentage, but you want to give yourself a profit. So if you were looking to make 20%, take yourself 40% out of it and leave the rest and let the ride with the house money.
Steve Grasso
I'm with Ken Guthrie from Cleveland, Tennessee. A shout out to Tennessee is in the house. Amazing. Your question, you guys commute with me every day for my hour ride from work from 5 to 6 o'clock. So it's great to be with you. But my question is quantum computing technologies, what do you think the future holds.
Tim Seymour
For companies that are involved in.
Steve Grasso
Well, as you've come to realize, I am not the smartest person on the show. I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but, you know, who is Dan Nathan. Dan, Quantum computing.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, Great question. And you know, we're always looking for new technologies, are going to drive some existing stories, but also some upstarts here. You know, Microsoft and Alphabet, Google have had some big announcements in the space, some research that they've been doing, and I think they got some early gains of that. But again, I think it's too far away. You got to be really careful about some of those small cap names that are saying that they're quantum stocks. Because until we figure out what that actually means and how it's going to be commercialized, it's probably a little too far in the offing right now.
Steve Grasso
All right, I'm here with Mary and she asked me a question before and she said to me, is Tim Seymour as Handsome in person as he is on tv. And the answer is clearly yes. But you have another question.
Melissa Lee
First of all, you are my Taylor Swift.
Tim Seymour
You're right.
Melissa Lee
You guys are our celebrities. Really, you are our celebrity.
Steve Grasso
Well, you're sweet to say. I appreciate you. Thank you.
Melissa Lee
Yes, even so much.
Ruben Roy
So when my final time comes, they're.
Steve Grasso
Playing the fast money music none too soon. It's not coming too soon, but please.
Melissa Lee
No, it's not. But I've got a question.
Karen Feinerman
If somebody's got dry powder, should we.
Ruben Roy
Buy, should we sell or should we.
Melissa Lee
Hide out in maybe treasuries? What do we do if we've got dry powder, where do we go?
Steve Grasso
Well, I'm going to give that to Karen Feinerman, the dry powder queen. Karen.
Karen Feinerman
Oh, thank you. I don't know what to make of that. You know, I'm always long, so I always want to be invested and it's really hard to time the market. I never try to do it because I know I'll never get it right. But one thing I do really believe in is dollar cost averaging. You can just slowly deploy it. You don't need to make a decision, an emotional decision every week or month, however you choose to do it. You just deploy it over that amount of time. Ultimately that works out.
Steve Grasso
Tim, Alice here from the great state of Michigan. Love Michigan, right? I mean, right. Give a round of applause from Michigan. By the way, sleeper this year, the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. What's your question? Hey, guy, I have a stock I'm.
Guy Adami
Very in love with.
Tim Seymour
I play it for the dividend. It pays 8.33% dividend and I reinvest the money I get from the dividend over and over again.
James Castulius
Compounding.
Tim Seymour
What's your take on stock called arcc Aries Capital?
Steve Grasso
You might as well ask me what the winning lottery numbers are tonight because you're going to get a better shot. I mean that one's out of my ballywick, but maybe somebody on the decimal, throw it up to the group. Maybe somebody knows a little bit about it.
Melissa Lee
Tim is raising his hand. Tim, what do you think of Aries?
Guy Adami
Well, I know Aries and ultimately again we're talking talking about a finance focused company that has been delivering a pretty steady, steady dividend yield. And one thing we often say about stocks is I don't necessarily like to own a stock just for a dividend, even though there have been names like an energy transfer or even an AT&T has been resurgent. But it's not been necessarily about the dividend. Now, in the case of Ares, in the case of some of these finance companies that are actually focused on investments in and I would call them middle market companies, it's been an incredible run for credit it and at some point it's going to be an issue. Right now I actually think these kinds of returns are ones I love compounding. It's like the magic in this world that actually exists.
Melissa Lee
All right. We're going to get to more questions a little bit later on in the show. Meantime, we're going to take a break. Coming up, the bears coming out of hibernation on Wall Street. Retail trader pessimism nearing record highs. But one firm is seeing some signs of hope. The latest read on investor sentiment next. Don't go anywhere. More Fast Money into.
Tim Seymour
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast forecast. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST money. Today's sell off intensifying into the close after President Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would proceed as planned. The dow dropping nearly 200 points. It had been up 450 points at highs. The S&P down 1.6%. The Nasdaq leading the losses down nearly 3% as in video plunged more than 8% on the back of its results. Well, individual investors are getting more pessimistic about the market. According to AAI's latest investment sentiment survey, the share of respondents with bearish views rising to 60.6%. It is only the sixth time going back to 1987 where that number has crossed the 60% threshold per bespoke investment group. For more, Charles Schwab's head of trading services, James Castulius joins us here on set. And you're actually seeing something a little bit different. It sounds like there's some optimism out there, certainly.
James Castulius
Well, thanks so much for having Melissa. I would say yes, a little bit different. But the recent survey we did was a quarterly sentiment survey. And as I was just telling Steve, wow, can things change quickly within these markets? So certainly a little bit more bullish probably coming into the start of the year than we'll see now. But a couple interesting trends I think that are still still offer some pretty good perspectives. One would be more bullishness in younger investors. So we saw a pretty big spike up to 6 out of 10 younger investors turning bullish towards the market, which is certainly interesting relative to sectors. I think we see a bit of bullishness in finance, which I think is sort of holding through what we're seeing even over the course of the last couple of days and couple of weeks and certainly some bearishness within health, health care.
Tim Seymour
James, over the last few years we've kind of some sentiment, positive sentiment has been around products.
Steve Grasso
Right.
Tim Seymour
Options, crypto, that sort of thing. What are you seeing in those products? Because we know that some of your competitors are seeing a lot of growth there.
James Castulius
Yeah, we continue to see great growth in derivatives. Both options and futures has been really, really strong, I think, over the course of the last couple of quarters. Definitely a rise in equity trading as well. What we tend to see at Schwab is resilience within the derivative trade. So they're going to be there regardless of what they're seeing in the market. And with what we've seen with the bull rise lately, certainly a little bit more of a lean towards equities.
Dan Nathan
James, when you look at crypto with, obviously you're trading them all through ETFs. Now at Schwab, is the younger population more bullish? That would, that would seem logical than, than the older, older demographic. And last one, just to piggyback it with, are these. Do they validate when you look back in hindsight, do the things if they're negative health care, is that proven out six months out, or is it a contraindicator?
James Castulius
Yeah, it's a great question, Steve. So we also do, in addition to the quarterly sentiment survey, we do a Schwab trading activity index. So the survey is sentiment based. The Schwab trading activity index is actually behavioral based. So we look at actually what we see trading and we do that monthly and we've created an index out of that, what we call the stacks. Oftentimes they are very highly correlated. Where it gets really interesting is where they're not correlated. And sometimes, probably one or two quarters a year, we will see some derivation between what they said in the survey and what they're actually doing, which tends to lead to some interesting insights.
Guy Adami
James, how about a case where after a run we've had in the volatile even of the last couple of weeks, and the bearishness. Bearishness you're talking about are people taking their money and putting them into higher yielding, call it money markets in places that, that really are more about an asset allocation that frankly we hadn't really seen out of that investor until rates were useful.
James Castulius
Yeah. So certainly with the rise in rates, we saw that. Right. Being in this business for quite a while, we hadn't talked about rates since probably, you know, five or six or seven. And then rates became all the rage. We are seeing a lot of engagement, a lot of trading engagement, as was asked before, relative to certainly derivatives, but equities as well. We're up from a trading perspective a little less than 10% year over year. We have not seen a slowdown in the start of this year. So I don't think at this point people are on the sidelines. I think they are still remaining really quite active.
Melissa Lee
James, thanks so much for joining us. It's always great to get a picture of the retail investor.
Ruben Roy
My pleasure.
Melissa Lee
Thanks so much for having us. Of Charles Schwab. Guy, what do you are you drinking out of a Yankees cup?
Guy Adami
Yeah, you know, I feel really bad because the Yankees seem to really have lost the back page of the New York Post. You're not getting enough attention. So as a Mets fan, I just thought it would be nice on a big show of ours to drink out of a Yankee cup to make you feel better.
Steve Grasso
No, I appreciate that. You know, the Met fans always have been sort of the younger children here in the New York metropolitan area. And I understand why you would want to do something like that in a live television show. But the reality is it's still a Yankee town.
Guy Adami
Obviously, we had a nerve, I think. I mean, it's just this is, I.
Melissa Lee
Just, I don't know where you guys are totally off the rails.
Guy Adami
Well, yeah, sorry. It is. That's never happened before, has it?
Melissa Lee
Sorry. Next Guy is going to be on the move again, guys, heading back to our beloved fans to get more of their questions. Plus, super bowl champion entrepreneur and Dominican sue will join us next to talk about how he is tackling his latest investment. The special Fast Money Live is back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Guy is back in the fray. Couldn't keep him away for long. More audience questions.
Steve Grasso
That's a raucous crowd here. Now, Tim won't understand that because it's just stadium. They go. They dress as empty seats. This is more Yankee Stadium crowd. But I'm here with Sheila. Sheila, what's your question?
Melissa Lee
I just want to say I'm a CNBC devotee. That's on from coffee to cocktails in my house. And my question is, what do you do with Pfizer?
Steve Grasso
That is directed to Tim Seymour, Tim Spizer. Tim, help Sheila out.
Guy Adami
Sheila, first of all, appreciate the devotee and appreciate running all the way, maybe even through cocktails. And we're going to have some tonight. I think Pfizer's a story where there it's obviously gone from being the vaccine story coming out of COVID They spent $30 billion on diversification. And in fact I thought it was a very smart move. The CG acquisition last year, about two years ago was a big one. That's all about oncology. I think the integration is actually going quite well. I think the story around Pfizer is it's not cheap, but it's a company with a lot of, I think upside to its pipeline portfolio. And I think there's zero investor interest in this stock right now. So I would stay long.
Steve Grasso
David is with us. David, welcome to Fast Money. Thank you, guy.
Dan Nathan
It's an honor to be on the show.
Steve Grasso
I've been watching this show my entire life. This is pretty much a milestone for me. Really. I cannot thank you enough of doing this. You're a gentleman. Your question is. So with the markets weak and the recent correction, there's no bidding in the tlt, there's no flight to safety. Do you think the TLT or the GLD is the way to go to protect yourself? I'm going to throw that at Steve Grasso tlt, but I'm going to pass to Karen. Let's pass it over to Karen.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I've been trading TLT since I was seven.
Karen Feinerman
Well, I'll take the TLT part. I'll pass the gold back to you, Guy. So I am actually short the tlt. I do think that we are in for some inflation. So I actually think, you know, 10 to 20 year bonds is not where you want to be. But lately that's been the wrong call the last couple of weeks.
Steve Grasso
Karen is so difficult on herself. Give Karen Feynman a round of applause. She's a genius. Tom is here from get this people, Alaska. Tom is here from a round of applause for Tom from Alaska. What's your question, Tom?
Dan Nathan
My question has to do with the.
Tim Seymour
Protection of the portfolio or individual stocks.
Melissa Lee
Is there a recommended way that traders.
Dan Nathan
Recommend to protect on the downside?
Steve Grasso
This is a. Dan, there used to be a show called Options Action, Risk Less, make more. All this beep. I didn't say the word Dan. Nathan, help him out here.
Tim Seymour
Yeah. Thanks for coming all the way from Alaska. You know, listen, there's two ways to think about this. It's not too different than what Steve said before. A you can kind of move your feet and risk manage an individual position as it relates to a portfolio. I like to use index, index etf, something like a spy etf and I'll often use put spreads to do that. But I want to really track my portfolio to the proper etf. That's going to Give me the best protection. If you think that you have a tech heavy portfolio, then you might want to use the QQQ. The top 10 names there make up 50% of the weight. So I like the idea of put spreads. I don't do them too often. It could be a huge drag on your portfolio. You want to be tactical about hedging with options.
Steve Grasso
The great state of Minnesota is represented. A round of applause from Minnesota, Brian Gu, longtime fan. And for 18 years this has been on my bucket list to be on the show. So thanks. You're on now, sir. Thanks for having me cross it off. Hey, I'm a retired school counselor, high school counselor. And my dream job was always to.
Ruben Roy
Be on the desk of fast money.
Steve Grasso
What is your dream job if you.
Tim Seymour
Weren'T on the desk of fast money on cnbc?
Steve Grasso
Great question. I'd either be Melissa Lee's like protege and sort of her helper or I'd play tight end for the New York Giants. The problem is because I'm not athletic enough and I'm too slow. So those days are over. But that was my dream job for a long time. Thank you. So thank you for that. And we have one more question. Hello, Raghu.
Melissa Lee
Hi, guy.
Ruben Roy
This is the best show on the network.
Steve Grasso
I agree. Best show on the network. Who agrees with that? Now I will get in trouble for doing that. But I think you've come to realize I don't really care. What's your question?
Melissa Lee
So first thing, thanks, Melissa, for keeping this wild, Mr. Swift. And check. So my question is would you rather Halliburton or Schlumberger?
Steve Grasso
Would you rather usually get in trouble for that. But I will self. Would you rather. Tim, I'm going to go with Howard Burton. Two of the biggest components of the. Oh, my sense is you might go in a little different direction here, Tim.
Guy Adami
Yeah, Raghu. First of all, welcome. Go Gators. I would absolutely say Schlumberger. I think the offshore drilling margins are increasing. This is a company that's probably getting back to, I think late 2018 ish in terms of profitability. Schlumberger. And I think it's cheap here.
Steve Grasso
I'm walking backwards. I'm walking backwards, but I'm tossing to Melissa Lee. Thanks, everybody.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, get your little you know what back here on the desk. Our next guest has had a few dream jobs himself. From winning Super Bowl 55 as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer and being on the Sky Sports broadcast team in London for this year's big game to rubbing shoulders of the legendary Warren Buffett and building out an impressive investment portfolio of his own. Five time NFL Pro Bowler and entrepreneur and Dominican Su joins us now. Big Su, great to have you back on Fast Money. Welcome.
Dominik Su
Thank you. It's always a pleasure to be on. Good to see you Melissa and I think we can take care of our guy and get him into a giant's uniform if we want to.
Ruben Roy
Right on.
Melissa Lee
We'll send him out on the field then. How are you feeling about the investment? I know you're a long term investor, you've got a lot of investment investments across crypto, real estate, restaurants, vc. How are you feeling about this environment today as opposed to say six months ago?
Dominik Su
This environment is very interesting honestly as I'm looking at all my different portfolio positions but then also just the companies I'm working on. It's important for me to just ultimately look at what my risk is. And I'm seeing a lot of risk, especially in crypto as well as in the stock market and then just in tech and everything's for sale right now you look at Even Bitcoin, it's 50% off or 20% off and that means all the other crypto pieces are going to be 50% off from that standpoint. So as I look at it, it's staying cash heavy, finding different opportunities and being consistent. And as Warren has always said, you got to always have that long term vision. So focus on what your craft is and your thesis is and stick with it and you'll be perfectly fine at the end.
Tim Seymour
Donkey. I was in London in January. I saw the playoffs. I saw you calling the games. Tom Brady, your ex teammate's got nothing on you. You were great. Can you give us a sense? I know you're very diversified here. You've told us once before about when you started investing and how did you think about that and timeframes and the like.
Dominik Su
Yeah, for me when I look at investing I'll give you probably the best example. Most recently I've had to take over some companies more so in the hospitality space and I connected with a guy named Greg Majewski who is a rock star in creating his own brands but had a lot of success with Jimmy John. Taking Jimmy John's, excuse me, taking them from 30 stores to 300 stores and his brand and crave worthy have shown some great opportunities of one how to be an amazing operator. And that's something I learned very very quickly. I am not an operator. I'm a forward thinker. How we can help make great experiences and do some fun stuff in and around that. But when it comes to operations, you want to have those expertise, experts that are along your side. And we spent months together before working on deals. And I'm excited of some things that we have coming up in the future.
Melissa Lee
You, you sounded pretty cautious about the stock market and Dominican and I'm just curious what will make you get more bullish? Is it a bigger pullback? Is it something that changes in the macro environment? There's a lot of uncertainty out there, certainly among individuals about the tariff situation, the economy. I'm just, I'm just curious what, what has you on the sidelines.
Dominik Su
To be honest with you, it's policy. When we look at our government right now, once we can have policy and guidelines of where things are going to be sitting and as you mentioned, tariffs, all that work has to be settled and have understanding of where we actually sit. And I think at that particular point in time I would move forward and say, hey, I want to make some decisions. But at the same time you can't be afraid and there's no perfect time in entering the market. You want to be able to potentially cost, get into the market at certain levels, buying now, buying later, looking at different things from that standpoint. But I think, I think it's important always to look at it from a standpoint of what is my long term vision was my long term focus.
Melissa Lee
And Dominican, great to speak with you. Thank you so much. And we're going to be sending Guy your way to get suited up. I would work out big up. Thank you. All right, let's get a check on some of today's movers, starting with Supermicro. That stock more than erasing all the gains since filing its long delayed financial results Tuesday night just before the NASDAQ X deadline. This is a very interesting story because now it's on the other side of this, down 15%.
Tim Seymour
Yeah. And we said this, I think on the show last night. I mean, there's so many other stocks to trade when you have these sorts of investigations, the fact that they passed this one hurdle about not getting delisted doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense. And then when you think about Dell's results tonight, if you don't want to buy Dell, if that thing's trading down off those results, you definitely don't want to buy this one.
Melissa Lee
All right, let's move on to Visa here among the Dow's top performers adding more than 1% today. The stock touching a new all time high and is now up almost 13%. So far this year. So what does Visa strength tell us about the US Consumer, about the consumer at large? In the last earnings report, they're citing really strong cross border volumes.
Steve Grasso
GUY Well, I mean, I think it speaks to how they're spending and I think it speaks to what they're spending for. We've said it for a while. I don't think it's an indictment or basically a, I don't know, a plus for the consumer. I think what it says is they're fighting inflation with credit and that's a problem. Now, Visa Wins to this, MasterCard wins to this. But some of these other companies, like maybe like a Capital One, American Express, potentially, if credit starts to deteriorate, are going to lose to this.
Karen Feinerman
So Visa, I mean, it's been an extraordinary stock, Visa and MasterCard for years and years. I think they got a couple of tailwinds the year. So we talk about cross border. That's so much more profitable business for them. The euro being down so much, that makes that a great destination for US Shoppers. And we know Japan also. So it's an extraordinary business. I sold my MasterCard way too early, never got back in and still regret it all the time.
Melissa Lee
All right, and let's take a look at Lyft shares lifting off today, up as much as 9%. Unseemingly, no news. It did close off those highs, but still up a percent and a half or so. Rival Uber meantime in the red today. So remember Facebook. Famously, Tim added lift to his Bicep trademark. He bicep last year. Lift could be added to band here to be bland.
Guy Adami
One of the, one of the rewards for playing the acronym game the right way on this show, folks, by the.
Karen Feinerman
Way, really like adding something.
Guy Adami
I'm not going to say anything, but sometimes if things are going your way, you might want to throw something in there. So yeah, band could be bland. Remember the Bly step last year? Didn't go so well. But look, Lift, it's about normalization of their core model. This is possibly a takeout play. I like it.
Dan Nathan
I want to play the name. I want to play Uber. The flip side of it has much more levers to pull. Lyft is sort of a direct play and obviously Uber has been outperforming Lyft by a large margin this year.
Melissa Lee
I can't believe the show's almost over. This special edition has been a lot of fun. So we should do it again. Stay tuned for a big announcement coming next week. Up next, a special edition of final trades. Up next, welcome Back to Fast Money before we get to final trades. Guy and Tim couldn't wait to meet the fans, including one who flew all the way from Hawaii.
Steve Grasso
It's unbelievable. Thank you for coming. I mean, this is unbelievable.
Guy Adami
Well, first I think we say aloha.
Ruben Roy
Aloha.
Guy Adami
Mahalo, anui. How am I doing?
Steve Grasso
Very poorly.
Melissa Lee
These came from Honolulu, Hawaii. We flew all the way from Honolulu just to meet you. Just to meet.
Guy Adami
And your name is?
Melissa Lee
Aulani, Aulani Munson.
Guy Adami
Well, we can't thank you enough. And again, mahalo, anui. Respect and we appreciate all your.
Steve Grasso
Now come in for the hug, sister.
Melissa Lee
I mean, don't crush the lei.
Steve Grasso
I mean, that's unbelievable.
Guy Adami
Thank you.
Steve Grasso
Thank you so much. That's really sweet. And again, coming all the way from Hawaii and you brought those with you. So thank you, thank you, thank you.
Guy Adami
Little hula, little hula dance. How we doing?
Melissa Lee
How am I doing?
Guy Adami
Just gotta move it, gotta move it, Guy. Gotta move it, gotta move it, gotta move it.
Steve Grasso
Throw it back to Melissa Lee. Melissa, back to you.
Melissa Lee
I hope you didn't throw anything out. That's all I have to say. It is time, can you believe, for the final trade of this very special edition of Fast Money Live. So let's go around that horn. Steve Brasso.
Dan Nathan
You know, I'm going to play the quantum computing, but I'm going to play it, as Dan said, through a sophisticated way, in a multilateral way with IBM.
Melissa Lee
Karen Feinerman.
Karen Feinerman
Okay, I know I'm going to get a little pushback of this for my final trade, which is the E in carb. The oih, obviously, Big oil field services. Oih, Ian Carbs energy is an energy related oil services.
Melissa Lee
Yes.
Dan Nathan
Makes perfect sense.
Karen Feinerman
Perfect sense.
Melissa Lee
Dan Nathan.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I'm going to go with Tim's L in the bly sep of last year, Lyft, I think the path towards autonomy. There's going to be a takeout candidate here.
Melissa Lee
That would be Lyft, Tim and Guy back there with our fans.
Guy Adami
This smells amazing. My final trade is a shout out to the most passionate, loyal and smartest fans on any TV show, let alone financial tv. Thank you, Fast Money fans.
Steve Grasso
Shout out to Mary Duffy and her team and our entire floor staff. They've done an amazing job. Casey Sullivan's here. Thanks everybody for joining us. Letter C will get you done. Everybody.
Melissa Lee
Ditto that. Thank you all for watching a very special edition of Fast Money live. Mad Money starts right now.
Tim Seymour
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC. NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer My side hustle.
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Tim Seymour
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CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary – February 27, 2025
Hosted by Melissa Lee alongside a panel of top traders, CNBC's "Fast Money" provided a comprehensive analysis of the day's market movements, focusing on significant earnings reports, sector performances, and investor sentiment. This special live edition, broadcasted from the NASDAQ Market Site in Times Square, New York City, featured insights from experts, real-time audience engagement, and market forecasts.
Opening amidst an enthusiastic crowd of over 100 fans from three countries, Melissa Lee welcomed viewers to a special live edition of "Fast Money." The event highlighted the presence of dedicated followers from states as distant as Alaska and Hawaii, setting the stage for an engaging night filled with expert analysis and audience interaction.
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This episode of "Fast Money" offered viewers an in-depth look into the complexities of the current market landscape, blending expert opinions with real-time data to guide investors through turbulent times.