← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fast Money 5/13/25
00:43:52
Listen to our traders take you behind the money...how to play the volatility...pops and drops and the movers you missed. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:03]
Janice Henderson
At JANICE HENDERSON Investors we believe working together is the way to work better. Like combining your portfolio plans and our in depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights, your vision and our mission. Working in harmony to seek the right investment opportunities. JANICE HENDERSON Investors Investing in a brighter future together. As America's leading business lender, bank of America is on your corner and in your corner. With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation, we help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do? Learn more@bankofamerica.com LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
- [01:05]
Dominic Chu
Live from the NASDAQ markets side in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. And here is what's on tap for tonight in the chips. The semis on a roll now up over 22% in the past month led by outsized moves in Micron, Texas Instruments and Broadcom in Nvidia. Now also joining that party is the rebound for real, we're going to debate. Plus unhealthy returns. UnitedHealth plunging as the CEO steps down and the company pulls its guidance for the year. Could the stock be approaching the so bad it's good level? And then later on, what has Boeing flying high in the last month? We're going to go off the charts with Uber and then shares of Coin up a pretty penny. Can they keep going higher? You get it, guys, right? I'm Dominic Chu and from Melissa Lee tonight, coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market side on the desk here with me, Tim seymour, Bono & Ison, Carter Wirth and gate guy Adami. I'm going to just say you said, gee, George. All right, we're going to start, guys, with that red hot chip trade, the semiconductor ETF. The ticker SMH is spiking 22% over the last month. It's up nearly 10% in just the last two days. Nvidia is jumping 12% since the start of the week. And once again joining the rarified air of the $3 trillion market cap club. This comes as President Trump announced a $600 billion investment by Saudi Arabia. And along with his host MBS, he also met with Jensen Huang of Nvidia, Lisa Su of amd. We're going to have more on that in just a couple of minutes. But despite the broad gains in the markets, the 10 year yield is hitting 4 and a half percent on the nose again for the first time in just over a month. Guy.
- [02:52]
Guy Adami
Yes, sir.
- [02:52]
Dominic Chu
Guy.
- [02:53]
Guy Adami
Yes, sir.
- [02:53]
Dominic Chu
This has been a key level for you. Four and a half percent. But Tim. Yeah, guys over here. We're going to start with what's happening with the 10 year yield and what exactly is happening there.
- [03:07]
Guy Adami
Well, first of all, welcome as always.
- [03:09]
Dominic Chu
It's always a pleasure to be a.
- [03:10]
Guy Adami
Lovely tie you're wearing by the way.
- [03:12]
Dominic Chu
I'm going to tell you more about the tie by the way.
- [03:14]
Guy Adami
I mean if you remember, it was a couple of weeks, probably three weeks ago that the bond market was absolutely melting down overnight between 8pm and 10pm our time here on the East Coast. And I think that caught the attention of a lot of people and justifiably so next day the president said a couple of things that sort of cooled people, swayed some of the concerns and yields backed off. But we're right back to those levels again, albeit probably for different reasons. But I do think it should be somewhat concerning because here's an environment where you know, inflation seemingly is coming down in the report today, yet 10 year yields continue to grind higher. I think that's one thing. Listen, everybody's excited about the S and P, they should be. But the market should be more focused on what yields are doing, I think.
- [03:53]
Dominic Chu
All right, so the yield picture is there. Let's talk about the semiconductors hot trade. Is it going to stay that way?
- [03:58]
Tim Seymour
Well first of all, speaking of hot guy I think is right on the 10 year, although I actually like it at 460 and I like it at 460 at least with the economy doing what's doing. We talk all the time or we have been doing difference between soft down and hard. Hard data is fine and it probably warrants 460. But back to the chips. If you want this market to go higher and again call whatever shape you think this is in terms of letters of the Alphabet. But this looks a lot like a V and it actually looks like that V that goes a little bit higher and up. What is that in math terms? Isn't there like a symbol in math? It's like the V that kind of I stick but that's anyway it's like.
- [04:32]
Dominic Chu
The square root symbol I think something.
- [04:35]
Tim Seymour
I failed calculus, that's how I met my wife. So it's still good.
- [04:39]
Bono & Ison
But.
- [04:40]
Tim Seymour
But ultimately the chips leadership is extraordinary. And if you look at the intraday low on the seventh, the semiconductor index, whether it's the S8 stocks, you name it up 49% off that intraday low. Now, there's a lot of reasons why semis were underperforming on the way down. And then there's both some of the news over the last couple of days. But even along the way of the last 39 days, when they've outperformed the S&P by 17%, you've gotten other ingredients into the reasons why we' buying chips very hard for two years. Carter, I'm sure has a view on market leadership and what you might need, what you might not need. To me, you need the semis. And if you look at the last 40 days, whether you like it or not, they are taking markets higher with them. And in video, the biggest of the semis, even though, yes, the industrial chips like Texan and Micron have had a great renaissance. Nvidia is actually outperforming semis and that's exactly what you want to see. I know people want to poo poo that. I like that trade.
- [05:33]
Dominic Chu
All right, Carter, for years now I've heard traders say that semiconductors are the leading indicator for the rest of the tech space. Whether you believe it or not. Do the charts bear that out?
- [05:42]
Carter Wirth
Well, they're the cyclical beta theme within tech, right. The software is a more stable. This is a more boom bust. People get into book to bill and we got too many, we don't have enough and so forth. But in terms of they peaked early. Remember, the stock market peaked February 19, as you know, but semis peaked in July. Semis also dropped 42%. The S&P dropped 21%. That's beta, that's cyclicality. And so this ricochet is more violent than that in the market because its sell off was more violent again down 42% from the high versus 21 for the S and P. So it's, it's beta, it's juice, it's cyclicality. And right now it's well bid. The question is, does it have a lot more room to run? I would hedge here or trim longs.
- [06:28]
Dominic Chu
Oh, okay. Bono, what do you think?
- [06:30]
Bono
Yeah, you know, I tend to agree, you know, guy kicked off the show talking about the 10 year and how we got here and I really think the path to getting back to that four and a half level, it's quite important. A couple of things, you know, now that we've had this massive bounce or ricochet or V shape back to, you know, the April levels, I think you really start to look and see as well as having the fact that earnings are out of the way, whether or not the multiple, essentially the, the, the, the difference in premium that you're getting for owning equities is commensurate with the risk that you're taking. Visa, visa risk free rate. And I think that's, I don't want to like parse words and put words in a guy's mouth, but I think at least that's what that elucidates for me. At four and a half percent, do I really start looking at more fixed income products versus chasing the rally that we've already had? And then in terms of the semi trade, you know that Tim mentioned, clearly you want to see leadership from that. I mean because that's really the catalyst for growth and leadership. But the, but the industrials I don't think should be overlooked. And I think that also gets you back to the 10 year level because now what you're seeing is being that you're seeing that those, you know, the Texans, the marvel is the microns of the world rallying 4 or 5%. You're seeing economic growth projections and I think that's being reflected.
- [07:40]
Dominic Chu
Nothing like getting the capital asset pricing model conversation, the conversation early. Okay, so for more on that $600 billion Saudi investment and all the semis that are going to be sold there in Saudi, let's bring in Christina Parts and novelist for that story. This is one where it could be a ton, maybe even literally of chips that are going to be sold into possibly into the Middle East. Is this really the game changer fundamentally that gets these trades higher and higher?
- [08:09]
Christina Parts
I would say yes, because it's one door that closes, another one that opens. And I say the door closing would be China. Right. So 13% of total revenues for 2024 here is Saudi Arabia going to buy hundreds of thousands of supercomputer chips and we don't need to go into the names of all of these chips, but they committed to that. And not only with Nvidia, with am, there was other announcements, Cisco, Qualcomm even. But the big news why you saw the Stock really jump 6% is they got the green light to start shipping their products to Saudi Arabia without having the gatekeeper, which is the United States. Previously up until today, you would have to get US export licenses. AMD Nvidia would have to get these chip, these licenses in order to sell X amount of chips to Saudi Arabia. Why is that? Not only Saudi Arabia, Middle Eastern countries, because of the ties with China. China is Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner. So a lot of people think, oh, the technology just ends up over there, back door. Right. Well, it seems like that sentiment has changed, perhaps you can say, because the President was receiving all of these US investments. But here's an opportunity now for Nvidia to reap the benefits of this change in policy by shipping their advanced technology. And we're talking advanced because when he took the stage today, that's what struck me as so remarkable today was it was Blackwell wrecks. You're mouthing it, you're saying blackout with me.
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Dominic Chu
I saw, I saw it on the video. It was crazy.
- [09:30]
Christina Parts
Yes, that is a big move and why you saw the stock. However, if you look at the reaction, maybe some say that this is already priced in its retail traders really just trading on the headlines. Production really needs to ramp up quite a bit for Nvidia to actually benefit from said purchases. Like you said, it could happen, but that reaping the benefits in terms of the fundamentals may not happen until 2026, 2027, which is great because there's that time when the door closes and this Saudi Arabia door opens.
- [09:57]
Dominic Chu
This Jensen relationship with the administration is one that has a lot of people focused on just how well Nvidia can do, given the fact that now he is very much in the inner circle, if you will, of business leaders surrounding President Trump. Oh yeah. If that is the case, is it just really Nvidia, is that the only place that traders and investors are looking because it is so close to the administration. You mentioned amd. We haven't really talked about Intel. He mentioned Trump did himself Taiwan Semiconductor in remarks and he called Qualcomm.
- [10:30]
Christina Parts
Right, Qualcommer.
- [10:31]
Dominic Chu
So if there's, if there is this ecosystem around it, what is. Is this truly the rising tide that's going to lift the entire chip sector?
- [10:38]
Christina Parts
And there's also Broadcom too, that's actually outperformed. Tim and I were talking about this before coming on set out just over the. Yeah, just always talking about chips and stocks and stuff like that. It is an opportunity because there is so much money and they're looking to pivot away from, you know, the oil investments towards. They say they want AI to contribute about 12% of GDP in Saudi Arabia. This is coming from, you know, locally statistics over there. And so there's an opportunity. They have a lot of cash at hand. They want to improve their data infrastructure, their supercomputers. Number one company to do so and help with that is the backbone is Nvidia. But it doesn't mean that there's not opportunities for other smaller players too, and not just the Chip names. But you also have all of the, like the Ethernet company companies as well. Coherent, for example, let's just say. Or anybody that helps with the liquid cooling side. So maybe the server assemblers too. So it could open a big door to your question.
- [11:30]
Dominic Chu
All right, there we go. There's the trade of the semiconductors right now. Christina. Parts, Navalis. Thank you very much for that. All right. Now, from the chip surge to the crushing day for UnitedHealth, that stock is sinking 18% after the surprise exit of CEO Andrew Witte and the suspension of this guidance for the rest of the year. Witty will be replaced by Stephen Hemsley, familiar name. He held the CEO role from 2006 to 2017. The stock has nearly been cut in half since the CEO of its insurance unit was murdered back on December 4. The big question now is do we think that this is a bottom after everything we've seen over the course of the last few months? Let's bring in Sarah James, the managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald. Covers UnitedHealth, Unh. And many of the peer companies in its group. Sarah, can you just take us through right now? This has been a dramatic fall for a Dow component. What exactly is driving this much downside? It can't just be the CEO change.
- [12:32]
Janice Henderson
No, it's actually a margin issue with one of their core products, Medicare Advantage. So what Insurance is sold to seniors. And we got a first glimpse of it in the first quarter. We knew that there was a little bit of a problem. They took guide Dow. But what we learned today is that it's broader. It's not just senior retirees and group accounts like your state employee teacher union. It's also individual seniors and high acuity seniors. So there's been some cost compression and they suspended guidance while they brought in probably one of the best CEOs in the industry, who has operational and strategic expertise, has run a Medicare turnaround and we believe is the best person to have in place at this phase for the company.
- [13:15]
Dominic Chu
I mean, he was the CEO for over a decade, was the executive chairman for the balance of those years since around 2017. It's not like there's a continuity issue here. This is the person who's been at the top of the chain for a while. What exactly is it going to be that makes you feel as though this is a stock that can meaningfully turn around in the next several quarters?
- [13:36]
Janice Henderson
Yeah, and that's, that's a true statement. We're calling this as the bottom. We think that they've taken out all the earnings uncertainty in Here we just cut our numbers today to what we think is a really realistic floor of about $23, 25 and getting up a little bit above $26 next year. That allows them to reprice next year for Medicare Advantage, bring up margins. Next year is a great year for them. They have margin expansion in Medicaid, Medicare, Optum, Health, Optum Insight. There's a lot of tailwinds coming up once we get past this uncertainty. And I think that's what the new management team is really trying to do is set the floor for where the base is. Now that we know where all the problems are, you can take out the entirety of that earnings. We know it's still profitable. But go ahead and be conservative and make it a new base to grow from there.
- [14:30]
Tim Seymour
Hey, Sarah. Yeah, I agree. And in fact, you know, part of the performance of UnitedHealth over the last, say three or four years up until this point where the stock's been effectively cut in half was that it deserved a higher multiple because it was growing faster than its peers. It really was an extraordinary story what the market has done to the stock. And leaving fundamentals aside, but popping this kind of into your model or any other analysts, it seems to me we're somewhere around the midpoint of the pre 25 guide, which is somewhere at 26 bucks a share. For 26, which leaves you at 12, 13 times, which is a multiple. That to me, again, is my math wrong. And if not, what changed today? Because otherwise this thing seems like it's not just, you know, an opportunity, but an opportunity a lot of people have been waiting for.
- [15:15]
Janice Henderson
Yeah, it's days like this where I wish I could invest in stocks that I cover because I would be loading it up into my retiree account. You know, this stock outside of 2008 when we had the CDO market collapse, has not traded this low. This is a diversified model. They have a lot of businesses that are doing well that are going to go into margin expansion mode the next couple of years. So you rarely get a discount like this. So you're right. 12 times is an unusually low amount. The way that we think about it is we get a quarter or two ahead of now, guidance comes back into play, confidence comes back, they've repriced their Medicare book and you can start to get to that sort of mid teens type of multiple. And if you get there, that's 30, 40% plus upside. So we think this is a great time to be looking at a diversified player like United.
- [16:10]
Dominic Chu
All right, Sarah. Carter Kanter covers Yen United Health Group, thank you very much. We're going to talk to you again soon, I'm sure. Thank you. All right, Carter, you once called this stock godlike. And what the charts show right now is what could be a falling knife.
- [16:26]
Carter Wirth
For a lot of folks. God's fallen off of Zeus. So this is a stock that's up like 20x over the S and P and almost every stock in it. And now it's having a bad moment. I think you'd be contrarian here. Just what we heard from the guest and you step in and buy.
- [16:41]
Dominic Chu
All right. So one more question to follow up and maybe, Bonawin, I'll go to you on this one. If you look at unhappy, this is a stock that was the most heavily weighted member of the Dow just two years ago, three years ago, it is now the seventh most heavily weighted member of the Dow because it's a price weighted index. What exactly is enough for you to say, you know what, this is too much of a value. I got to get in.
- [17:04]
Bono
Probably if I start to see a break trend or if I were to start to see short interest really increase, I would look for a countertrend move there. If you're asking me for specific things that I'd be looking for that would say, okay, actually, I feel like Cinnamon is overdone. I think short interest would give you that RSI kind of dropped from below 30. I need to see where it is now. I can't tell you that number right off top of my head, but those would be indicators that would at least give me some type of quantitative and tactical tool that I can point to and say, you know what, at this point, I feel like Cinnamon is overdone.
- [17:35]
Dominic Chu
Okay, guys, thank you very much for the UNH stuff. Coming up on the show, a big day for Boeing as April orders and deliveries help boost shares. The tailwind numbers giving that trade some air coming up next. Plus, auto stocks making headlines today. And while markets keep climbing on tariff cuts, a former Ford chief says the threat is still very real for the automakers. The potential impact on those names when FAST MONEY returns after this break. You're watching FAST MONEY here on cnbc. We'll be right back. How will you shape the future of energy with confidence?
- [18:15]
Tim Seymour
What does it mean to deliver affordable.
- [18:17]
Dominic Chu
And reliable energy for all?
- [18:19]
Tim Seymour
From evolving supply and demand to pricing uncertainty?
- [18:22]
Dominic Chu
EY understands the disruptions energy companies face and how to drive the outcomes that matter. So whether it's in the plants at the pipeline or on the grid, EY's full spectrum of services help energy companies.
- [18:34]
Tim Seymour
Maximize operations to drive profitability and performance.
- [18:38]
Dominic Chu
EY shape the future with confidence. For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with a message for everyone Paying Big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying. No judgments. But that's weird. Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Boeing topping the tape, surging two and a half percent and hitting a 52 week high after posting strong delivery numbers for the Phil LeBeau has got all the details.
- [19:43]
Bono & Ison
Phil and Dom deliveries is really the focus. It's not that these are spectacular numbers for the month of April, but they are steady progress. That's what the investors and the Wall street community want right now when it comes to Boeing. Take a look at this. In april they delivered 45 airplanes. That means year to date deliveries total 175. 45 by the way, matches the high that they also achieved in terms of monthly deliveries back in January. You have 737 max year to date deliveries now at 133 as they gradually ramp up deliveries of the max because they're increasing production. And then there's the China news. China is interesting because while it's just about 10% of the order backlog, they want to not have delivery stop. And there was news on that front today. Look at this. In Q1 delivered 18 planes in April. There were two deliveries before China said hold on, we're going to take a pause on deliveries while this trade war escalated. Now reportedly they're back into the business of accepting aircraft. If they do the remainder of 25. There are about 50 airplanes that could be delivered to China this year in terms of orders. It's not a huge market right now. The industry is pretty well backlogged and as a result orders in April, just eight planes for Boeing year to date orders coming out to 212. And a couple of other notes as you take a look at a two year chart of Boeing. The reason we're showing you a two year chart. We haven't seen this level for the stock since what, early 24. The last time it was above $200 a share. The backlog stands at 5,643 planes. And Dom, today they announced an order. It's not part of the April orders, but they announced an order out of Saudi Arabia. Like so many companies over there with the President and the Trump administration. This was to Avilis, a Saudi Arabian jet aircraft leasing firm. 30 planes up to 37, 37 maxes. So yet another piece of news today that made people say I like what I'm seeing from where Boeing is right now.
- [21:47]
Dominic Chu
All right, Phil Lebeau with the latest there on Boeing Dow component. Thank you very much for that, Tim. I'm going to turn to you for this one. You can't look at it from a valuation perspective because it's negative on a trailing basis. The P E it's negative on a forward basis. They're going to lose money for a while. That's what the estimates are. How do you pick when to get into it? It's already up 15% by the way.
- [22:05]
Tim Seymour
Well, as our viewers know, Dom, and I know you follow the fast money acronyms as well because most people do, but it is the B in bland and, and it was the be in bland because I didn't expect 25 to be a gangbuster year in terms of profitability. I do expect it to be a gangbuster year in terms of turnaround. If you look at these delivery numbers, even for year over year for April, there's some, there's some, I think some startling and important numbers in there, including 29 max versus 16 a year ago. That, that really is part of the story I think that you want to see, especially with the max and all the regulatory issues there. The, the change in culture around engineering I think is slow to happen. But as you said, they lost 20 over, over 20 bucks a share last year. I actually think they're going to eke out a small amount of profit this year. I think the street says they're going to lose 50 cents a share, but by 26 they're going to make four to five dollars a share. The free cash flow I think will be significant. I also think sentiment wise. Why wouldn't you be one of these countries on the other side of the table saying we're going to be buying a lot more aircraft? These are big ticket items. These are big things on trade balance. And I think Boeing is in a sweet spot.
- [23:06]
Dominic Chu
Carter, the chart, it has to look okay. It's still up 15% already this year.
- [23:11]
Carter Wirth
Sure, it's the definition of a bearish to bullish reversal. Remember, the stock is still still down 50% from its high that was back in 2019, 400 and something a share. Here we are at what, 203. But that's how it starts. You go down and down and down. At some point you base and bottom. Altogether different from UnitedHealthcare, which is still plunging. More speculative to catch a falling knife where something that's based and is up 15%, that makes it even better.
- [23:35]
Dominic Chu
All right, there we go. There's the Boeing trade. Thank you very much, guys. There's a lot more to come on Fast money. Here's what's coming up next. The rally rolls on as markets continue their tariff cut climb. But one former Ford exec says the automakers are still facing a real threat. The latest pressure on the industry next. Plus crypto's major milestone as the S&P 500 welcomes Coinbase in with open arms. What it means for the stock crypto and the latest read on how retail investors are navigating the recent rally from the lows. You're watching Fast MONEY LIVE from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
- [24:14]
Tim Seymour
We're back right after this.
- [24:21]
Janice Henderson
Earn a business degree on your terms at Capella University. Our flexpath format is available in select programs and lets you learn on your schedule. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella eduardo.
- [24:37]
Dominic Chu
Exclusively on CNBC.com, criminal gangs are attacking America's supply chain through widespread cargo theft. CNBC investigates. They literally have a license to seal cargo theft. End of the road. Watch now on CNBC.com all right. Welcome back. There's just a handful of tickets left for the next Fast Money live event on June 5th. You'll watch the show here at the NASDAQ Live, maybe ask a question live on the air and then you're going to stick around for an exclusive, exclusive Q and A session followed by some one on one time with the traders and a top shelf cocktail hour. Plus a great one of a kind piece of Fast Money memorabilia. And for those of you who don't already have it, a six month subscription to CNBC Pro. So just scan that QR code on your screen or head over to CNBC events.com fastmoney. Guys, is the invitation still open to.
- [25:31]
Guy Adami
Kind of, you know, come here.
- [25:33]
Dominic Chu
I know. So here's what I want to say, guy, and I want to turn for you this, this tie. I was at a charity golf event just yesterday at Sleepy Hollow. People who follow me on social media know, right? This tie was the emcee's tie and it was given to me by a guy from Cleveland. He wants to remain anonymous, but I gotta give him a shout out. This is tie, right? The reason I'm saying this is because there are a lot of people out there who love having conversations with people in person.
- [25:57]
Tim Seymour
Well, I'll tell you what, a lot.
- [25:58]
Dominic Chu
Of CNBC fans are out there.
- [25:59]
Tim Seymour
I feel like, I mean, first of all, this tie is a, is a baseball tie. I'm a huge baseball fan. In fact, the stadium series this weekend in the Bronx is actually, they're going to turn that into Shea Stadium because I think the Mets are going to dominate. But this tie right here, I can tell you this tie and the tie I just volunteered, guys, tie. Those tie. These ties are gifts. These are special. And we're grabbing that tie, too.
- [26:19]
Dominic Chu
For somebody who's going to come out here for this 100%.
- [26:22]
Tim Seymour
But they got to be here. They got to be here from Ohio for your tie. I think right from Cleveland.
- [26:26]
Dominic Chu
Cleveland rocks.
- [26:27]
Guy Adami
Sleepy Hollow is beautiful. Folks should come. I don't think there are many.
- [26:31]
Tim Seymour
I don't think there are. So in fact.
- [26:32]
Guy Adami
But sign up.
- [26:33]
Tim Seymour
But it's going to be some special guests, too that I think are really going to knock your socks off. So Dominic Chu, guy wears. And speaking of socks, I mean, guy.
- [26:41]
Dominic Chu
You have some crazy socks on there. So. All right, guys, let's recap the action here. The S and P is rising again today, wiping out its 2025 losses and turning positive for the year. The Dow being weighed down by what else? The drop in UNH falling about 270 points. And the tech heavier NASDAQ leading the charge, jumping about 1 1/2 percent. Crude also continuing its climb today up nearly 3%, nearly 8% higher over the past week. First Solar share surging another 23% today, now up more than 50% in a week. Wolf Research upgrading that stock to an outperform, citing better clarity on the House tax cut, proposals for clean energy production and a potential thaw in the IPO market. Fintech company Chime is filing to go public here at the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol Chym. Here is how it has performed in the private market according to our partners at forge Global, up 43% in just the last year. Private transactions. Bonawin, I'm going to turn back to the first solar trade, a trade that was dead, seemingly. So given the Biden administration turning into the Trump administration. What's the story here?
- [27:46]
Bono
Well, as you mentioned, it just seemed like the bill wasn't going to be as punitive in terms of rolling back all of the Inflation Reduction Act. So you have that and that really was a tailwind for all of the renewable energy space. And then I think there's a, there's a subtle difference here between let's say First Solar or say a sun run or some of the others and that if there is a re escalation of U.S. sino relations, I think First Solar remains a bit insulated there. So I think you get a bit of the catalyst and a bit of the downside protection there. So if you're looking at that space, I like that name.
- [28:15]
Guy Adami
Energy I think works. Goldman Sachs, I think just upgraded Valero either yesterday, today might have been today, $154 price target. We had Paul Sankey on I think early last week. I think Valero was trading 108 or so. We talked about the potential for that stock with crude lower the crack spreads working demand still there. Look at where it closed today. I think Valero still works.
- [28:35]
Dominic Chu
All right, energy overall, new and old coming up on the show. Driving into all of today's auto headlines got Honda's big miss, the tariff impact on carmakers and Tesla's recent rebound, what former Ford CEO Mark Fields thinks is the greatest threat facing the group. The details on fast Money returns after this. Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. All right, we've got a news alert on American Eagle. Shares dropping after hours and our own Steve Kovac is back at HQ with the details. Steve? Yeah, Don, they're dropping significantly here, better than 16%. The company just announced they're withdrawing their 2025 full year guidance and taking a $75 million write down on their spring and summer merchandise. This is following some comments from the company about weak demand at the beginning of the year, blaming cold weather and a number of other things. But now they're pulling their guidance and taking a write down on some inventory that they had planned to sell for the spring and summer. You see shares off 16, almost six and a half percent down. All right, Steve Kovac of the latest on American Eagle. Thank you very much for that. Meantime, Honda shares are getting hit today, dropping more than 4%. The Japanese auto giant missing earnings estimates and reporting a 76% plunge in operating profits. It's considered an unprecedented figure for Honda and our next guest suggests the numbers are a potential warning sign for the entire industry. CNBC contributor Mark Fields is the former Ford CEO. He now sits on the boards of Qualcomm, Lam Research and Hertz as well. Mark, thank you very much for taking time to join. Join us here on Fast money. Can you take us through just how much some of the latest headlines in autos and tariffs really feel for you? They seem positive for some out there, but some of the data suggests otherwise.
- [30:37]
Mark Fields
Yeah, Dom, as you saw from Honda today, it's very unusual that Honda misses and not only was their operating profit down over 75%, they also guided for the upcoming fiscal year for the operating profit to be down almost 60, 50%. So you have a setup in the auto industry here where you have additional tariffs which are going to kind of re rate the margin structure in the industry depending upon how much they absorb versus passing on to consumers. You have the transition to electrification which is weighing down on margins. You have the slowdown in some of the markets. And overall, you know, it's a, it's a, it's a tough setup for the industry going forward and particularly these tariffs. The big winner here, I think, is the domestic Chinese brands because they are spending 100% of their time focused on the business, Whereas the Western OEMs are spending a lot of their time probably upwards, 75, 80% of their time figuring out how they deal with the tariffs in their supply chain.
- [31:41]
Dominic Chu
Mark is the former CEO of a Big three automaker and you've been watching some of the coverage coming out of the Saudi Arabia and US kind of investment forum that's happening. A lot of the, at least sentiment seems positive out there. How do you read into the public remarks being made by this White House? And how do you feel as though some of the CEOs in the global auto industry are taking it full on at face value or are they still trying to navigate through contingency plans in case things don't go the way that they think they will?
- [32:12]
Mark Fields
Well, you know, if you're sitting as a CEO of an automaker, you know, you're taking a lot of this with a grain of salt because they're seeing the data every day of what's happening with the consumer in dealerships. They're looking at their input costs, whether it's because of, you know, recent inflation or now the tariffs, and they're going to hunker down accordingly. I mean, you've seen all the automakers, all the major automakers in their earnings in the last two Weeks talk about the hits to their bottom lines that they see from tariffs, inflation, currency changes. And that's why all of them have made very specific objectives around cost reductions going forward. So I think they're. All the CEOs are being very, very prudent and planning for the worst and hoping for the best.
- [33:00]
Guy Adami
76% decline in operating profit. I mean, that's a staggering number. Mark, were you. So I was. But were you surprised the stock wasn't lower than it was today?
- [33:11]
Mark Fields
Yeah, I really was. I mean, that it is staggering for Honda. Honda's very consistent. And if you think about it, you know, Honda, basically what they reported in this last quarter, quarter is it really wasn't impacted by tariffs yet. So the worst is yet to come. And if you look at it, they basically downgraded every financial metric ending, you know, in the upcoming fiscal year. So, you know, it's not only about tariffs, but if you look at their sales across the globe, their sales were down in every region. So you have sales down, you have tariffs, you have input costs going up. So it's, it's a tough setup for Honda and they're probably the best position compared to some of the other Japanese. So companies. So I was really surprised the stock didn't get it higher.
- [34:00]
Dominic Chu
Mark, one last question before we let you go. One of the people front and center at the US Saudi Investment Forum was Elon Musk. I wonder what you think is going to happen given Tesla's exposure to tariffs or lack thereof, and what exactly it means for them of vis a vis the other automakers.
- [34:19]
Mark Fields
Well, if you think about it, if I had to categorize the automakers, I think the Western automakers, as I said, the big winners are the Chinese domestic automakers. But in the West, I'd say Tesla is the best position because, you know, here in the U.S. for example, they produce all their vehicles here in the US that they sell, but they do import probably about 30 to 40% of their parts. So there's going to be an impact obviously on their bottom line. But their best position, I think Ford is probably second because they produce about 80% of their vehicles here in the U.S. you know, you have GM, which is not in a great position because they import a lot of vehicles from South Korea. And I think the worst position are probably, you know, folks like Hyundai, Kia, which import about 65% of their vehicles, and some of the German luxury brands which import a majority of their vehicles. So Tesla's probably in the pole position, if you will, but it's, it's it's a tough room to begin with.
- [35:17]
Dominic Chu
Tough race for sure to even at the pole position. Mark Fields, former Ford CEO, CNBC contributor thank you very much, sir. We'll see you soon.
- [35:23]
Mark Fields
You bet.
- [35:24]
Dominic Chu
All right, so let's talk about the trade here and I'll start with you. Do you agree with Mark? Is Tesla the best positioned for gm? All the other ones out there, this is tough no matter what.
- [35:34]
Tim Seymour
I don't think so. And Mark's talking about the impact of tariffs, I get that. But I mean I don't think Tesla is the best position at all. And, and I'm not going to say that I think, you know, tariffs have just been a. Haha, we were kidding. But because I'm not a CEO of GM or Ford, you know, I'm going to say I don't think the auto companies are going to be that much worse off by the time the dust really settles here. I think there's going to be so many carve outs and subsidies. We've already seen the workarounds. The question is to me, which of these car companies were more interesting before the tariffs were announced and Ford is not the one. It is GM. I mean Ford, Ford's got a greater than $10 billion overhang just from its pension alone. They've got a lot of uncertainty about what they're doing in Europe. They've got zero strategy, I think outside of the F150 in EV land. And I think they've been reversing field on that. So I would just get back to the way everything's gone for the last month. I think the auto companies are going to be in a different place in another couple of months. That may be folly, but I think you own GM long term.
- [36:28]
Dominic Chu
All right, there's the order trade. Thank you very much, guys. Coming up with the show, shares of Coinbase are surging on news of its inclusion of the S and P. What the major milestone means for crypto. Plus, how retail traders are navigating the recent bounce back in the market. Fast Money is back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. As you can see, Coinbase shares soaring on the news that the crypto trading platform is going to be joining the S&P 500 next Monday, replacing Discover Financial, which is getting bought out. The announcement comes just days after Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark again. It closed today up more than 2 1/2 percent, currently trading at 104,000 and change. So this is an interesting one. Meanwhile, our next guest says there are real signs of Strength in the retail trader. And it's not just bitcoin driving the action. Robinhood recently saw its biggest week of the overnight trading ever and users are buying the dip in some of the biggest, hardest hit names by tariffs. Robinhood Chief Brokerage Officer Steve Quirk joins us now with more on that story. Steve, this is big and it maybe is the resurgence of the retail trader again, but it's not meme driven this time.
- [37:42]
Steve Quirk
No, no, it's not meme driven. Yeah, thanks for having me. Yeah. We just got a fresh look at our April metrics. So we saw, you know, what our customers have been doing throughout the month of April. Strongest sign was that it was one of the best months we've ever had for deposits. So they're bringing in fresh powder to take advantage of the opportunities that they saw with some of this tariff news. And as you said, some of the most depressed names or the ones that were hardest hit, the Apple, the Amazon, Nvidia, all the ones that really were quite depressed is where we saw some pretty strong buying. And if you look at the overall volumes on the equity front, they were as strong as we've seen and up over 100% on a year over year basis. Same thing on the option side. And the margin balances are held pretty firm. So I think our customers really stepped in and took advantage of what they thought is a pretty unique opportunity.
- [38:41]
Dominic Chu
When you look at the dynamic now, all of the leverage, the trading volumes, the kinds of asset classes being trafficked more in, do you feel as though that this is a market where we could still see a retest of the lows and maybe even new ones? It feels like such a long time ago, but it was just a couple of weeks ago.
- [39:02]
Steve Quirk
Oh, yeah, no, I agree. I don't think, I don't think. And if you, you know, we talk to our customers, many of them pretty frequently, I don't think they think that we're, this is all just going to pass. But you know, they take advantage for they have a core portfolio, but they'll take advantage of names that get very depressed and stay in those for a shorter duration and then cycle out when they get the gain. I mean, some of these are up 50% from their lows. So you know, they cycle out of a portion of that and then wait for another opportune time to get back in if they think there's going to be attractive opportunities.
- [39:39]
Dominic Chu
You mentioned some of those names out there that are getting some of the most activity. If you look at those, is there anything that you glean from the kinds of trading activity that we're seeing that can extrapolate to the broader market overall for, say, the institutional side of things.
- [39:54]
Steve Quirk
No, but I think there's an interesting phenomenon that happens when we have the Vix almost at 60. And there's an interesting phenomenon that happens not only to Robinhood customers. Our customers are in their 30s or quite young, but if you look across the industry, when we tend to see extreme bouts of volatility and movement like this, you get retail customers that sort of move away from individual names and they get into the broad based ETFs, the IWM, the QQQ, the spider. And the rationale is really that, you know, hey, the market's moved down 25%. I have less confidence that the individual name I'm going to buy is going to rebound. I have more confidence that the overall market is going to see a rebound. And then when we, you know, when things sort of calm down, you see that rotation back to individual names that become very popular from a volume standpoint in the industry.
- [40:51]
Guy Adami
Steve, congratulations, first of all, I mean, five years ago, we were not talking about overnight trading and volume, but the other night you probably had, if it wasn't a record, was pretty close. So speak to the level of sophistication now with the clients to be able.
- [41:03]
Steve Quirk
To do what they're doing, you know, and thanks. I just think what people really want to do is be able to act on opportunities when the news hits, and the news hits on Sunday night regarding the tariffs. And they didn't want to wait until Monday morning to take an action or to protect themselves or grab an opportunity. And so, you know, Sunday nights have been some of the biggest nights that we have in our overnight trading. It's either earnings events or something that's episodic like announcements or Sunday nights, because you're bunching up a couple days of news. And in today's cycle, that could be quite a bit of news. And then, you know, you get people that are acting upon that as quickly as possible. And you've seen all the exchanges, everybody, you know, we're going to be full cycle here in the next couple years, without a doubt.
- [41:54]
Dominic Chu
All right, Steve Quirk at Robinhood, thanks very much. Please come back and see us again soon. Thank you. All right, Bono and I want to talk about the crypto side of things. I didn't get to ask him that because the time, the coinbase vis a vis Robinhood, how much more involved is the crypto thesis for platforms like Robinhood or just Retail trading overall?
- [42:14]
Bono
Well, looking at those numbers, there was a bit of a pullback in terms of the, the amount of money that was allocated to crypto vis a Visa Equity. So you are seeing some volatility there. I still think, you know, ultimately you look at a 22% move. Clearly there's like a large retail presence there. And I think, you know, that is part of the bloodline of names like Coinbase and Robinhood. I mean, the retail trader is entrenched. They're much more sophisticated as Guy alluded to. And I think, you know, like, you know, the one thing that starts to concern me is what about the, what about the activity and levered etf zero days to maturity options? Those give you a lot of leverage and clearly, you know, the knife cuts to both ways. But outside of that, clearly they've shown the sophisticatedness, the sophistication necessary to use these tools.
- [42:58]
Dominic Chu
All right, there we go. There's a trade coming up on the show. Charting Uber's five star ride. Shares up more than 50% this year. And the Chartmaster sees more green lights ahead. Those technicals coming up next. More fast. And welcome back to Fast Money. Uber shares hitting a fresh all time high. The ride hailing stock up more than 6% since last week's earnings. And the Chartmaster says it's still a buy even after the big run. Carter, what are the charts telling you on Uber?
- [43:31]
Carter Wirth
Well, before we get to the charts, of course we know we're coming up on the anniversary of its IPO. That was in May of 2019. So six years later, this is a stock that's only paced the S and P and yet it's a great franchise and is just now moving to all time highs. Let's look at the charts. We have four and they are identical. The first, as always, no annotations, no lines, no drawings, no judgments by anyone. There it is. Now let's annotate it. Second chart. If you want to call these lines what you might call it in the second chart, this is what would be known as an ascending triangle. It is breaking out from that formation. Third chart. Another way to draw the lines. This would be considered a pennant. You can call it what you want to call it, but it's all very bullish. Fourth and final chart. And a lot of people would see the situation this way. You'll see it here. Some people would call that a cup and handle, but what it is is a very bullish circumstance. A stock that again has only kept pace with the S and P for six years. Since its ipo, but it is coming to life and we think there's much more to come.
- [44:36]
Dominic Chu
All right, Tim. Yes, sir. Quick question. Just quickly. Uber or Lyft?
- [44:41]
Tim Seymour
Lyft.
- [44:42]
Dominic Chu
Why?
- [44:43]
Tim Seymour
I just think you're getting, you know, you're farther off your mark. I mean, Uber's been outperforming because of performance, because of profitability. I think Lyft is closing the gap. And again, you, you make more money when you just improve off of a bad base.
- [44:54]
Dominic Chu
All right, there's the Lyft and there's the Uber charts. Thank you very much for that. Up next, your final trades. So keep it right, it's that time. Final trades. Let's go around the horn. Tim, you first.
- [45:16]
Tim Seymour
Tom, you and your tie. It's great having you here as always. And don't get too far away from gold. This weakness in GDX is something you are buying.
- [45:24]
Dominic Chu
All right, Bona win.
- [45:26]
Bono
I'm going to keep running the tailwinds of tariffs. I think like I do, I'm here for a catch up trade.
- [45:30]
Dominic Chu
Okay, Carter, Wal Mart doesn't act well.
- [45:33]
Carter Wirth
As the old time tactical expression goes. Earnings coming up for sellers here.
- [45:38]
Dominic Chu
Ooh, sellers of Walmart. And last but certainly not least, Guy.
- [45:42]
Guy Adami
Adami for you fence sitters for the June 5 event. Dom Choo will be in attendance.
- [45:47]
Dominic Chu
I haven't gotten the formal invitation yet, guys.
- [45:49]
Tim Seymour
Just saying, you know, you bring the tie, you're in.
- [45:52]
Dominic Chu
All right, Valero, there we go. Valero is the final trade. All right, guys, thank you very much. It's always a pleasure being here. I will see you back here tomorrow. Fast Money. Thanks for watching the show. Mad Money starts right now.
- [46:05]
Janice Henderson
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Imagine what's possible in your business career when learning doesn't get in the way of life at Capella University. Our game changing flexpath learning format is available in select business programs and lets you learn at a time and pace that works for you. That means you don't have to put your life on hold while earning your business degree. Instead, enjoy learning your way and earn your degree without missing a beat. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.