← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fast Money 5/14/25
00:43:52
Listen to our traders take you behind the money...how to play the volatility...pops and drops and the movers you missed. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:02]
Dominic Chu
As America's leading business lender, bank of America is on your corner and in your corner. With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation, we help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do? Learn more@bankofamerica.com LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. Hey Fidelity, what's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app? Start with as little as $1 with no account fees or trade commissions on.
- [00:41]
Kate Rooney
U.S. stocks and ETFs.
- [00:43]
Tim Seymour
Hmm.
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Karen Feinerman
That's music to my ears.
- [00:45]
Dominic Chu
I can only talk.
- [00:48]
Andy Constant
Investing involved risk, including your surplus.
- [00:50]
Dominic Chu
Zero account fees apply to retail brokerage accounts.
- [00:51]
Steve Grasso
Only $0 commission applies to online US.
- [00:53]
Dominic Chu
Equity trades and ETFs and Retail Fidelity accounts Sell order assessment fee not included some account types and securities excluded. Details@fidelity.com Commission Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIBC all right, live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. And here's what's on tap tonight. Lurking in the shadows. While tech's been on its hair and the Mag 7 are back on the climb, rates are quietly backing up to the upside as well. The 30 year within a whisper of 5% is a rate reality check coming soon. We're going to debate that. Plus wheels up for Boeing, the aerospace giant making a record deal from Qatar Airways as part of the President's Middle east investment tour. Can this deal keep fueling a Boeing surge? And then later, inside the numbers of Cisco and Core, we've checking out Walmart ahead of earnings tomorrow and the latest of eToro's big debut on the IPO market. Could it unlock the entire IPO pipeline? I'm Dominic Chu in for Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. And on the desk with me tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Steve Grasso and Julie Beal. And we're going to start with a tech melt up that keeps rolling and rolling on the NASDAQ. Gaining 136 points today and just since Monday, the Tech heavier index is up nearly 7%. The MAG7 names Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon Alphabet leading the charge. Tesla, by the way, rallying 26% over the past week. Nvidia is up a very respectable 16%. Nvidia, by the way, turning positive for the year today and overtaking Apple in terms of market cap. But lurking in the shadows of those outsized moves, a slow steady climb in treasury yields. The 10 year yield back above 4 1/2 percent. And check out the 30 year long bond. It's within just a whisper, a stone's throw of 5%. Whisper of 5%. These moves could, while these are all coming while gold by the way, quietly falls more than 6% over the past five sessions. So is this a sign the market rebound has come too far too fast? Tim, that's the open question.
- [03:02]
Tim Seymour
So many, so many puns to open with. And it's great having you two days in a row. So you know what else? What I'll say is first of all, gold is going to rally. If you're as worried about the treasury yields as some may be, then you buy gold here and I think you're buying gold anyway long term. But I'm less concerned about the 10 year where it is. I mean I think, you know, part of this is really truly being reassured that the economy is okay, having some sense that yes, I think there's some concern on deficit dynamics in a world where I think this White House is going to start talking about tax cuts. So I mean it doesn't surprise me that we are where we are. I think you don't really start talking about the impact on equities from the bond market until you're north of 5%. And I think we have an auction or two ahead of us that would be the place to really start to get worried. This is just, this is a snapback and if I look at the trend from whether I'm going all the way back to July of 2020 or whether I even go back to that CPI kind of blow off top in October of 22 from the peak of inflation to present the long bond or at least, excuse me, the 10 years done almost nothing. So I'm going to say I'd rather see rates here than at 350, which is what I said yesterday and I think I'll say it like that for a while now.
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Dominic Chu
Karen, one of the words I heard a lot more in just the last month or two that I haven't heard a lot of in the last week.
- [04:23]
Karen Feinerman
Or two is what that word stagflation.
- [04:26]
Dominic Chu
Stagflation, that's the word. I heard it a lot over the last couple of months but no one's really mentioning it now. Yields keep going higher. Is inflation as big of a worry or is this maybe yields going higher because there is an anticipation of a growth story that's there maybe longer term?
- [04:44]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, I think the latter, I think some of it is the lack of a recession story which was really starting to be the consensus view after Liberation Day. So I think that has, I think the odds of that. A lot of houses are taking the odds of that recession down. And I think you know Tim always talks about rather have a 5%, 10 year or 30 year rather in a good market, good economy than a 3 and a half percent in a weaker economy. But to me the, you know, and I look at the cues, the bounce is so extraordinary. And you know the Vix, we saw it in the low 50s not that long ago and now it's 18 and change. To me I'm lightening up a little. I'm always long, always. That's how I always go. But you know I have some QQQ put spreads that I put on a couple of days ago. Lost money in that already. But I think it's a little more prudent to. I don't know, this feels a little toppy.
- [05:37]
Dominic Chu
This is VIX is an interesting point. We don't talk about it all that much because it is very kind of idiosyncratic and very inside baseball for professional traders. But it is a gauge of volatility and it was massively high just two to three weeks ago and all of a sudden now it's like it was before Liberation Day even happened. So if you rip van winkled it and just fell asleep for three or four weeks, what gives?
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Julie Beal
And the stat that if you buy the, you should buy the market when the Vix is above 35, volume exploded on the lows in the equity market. Tim talks about the 10 year yield. I'd rather it be lower. It's not lower. But let's look at it through this. You said stagflation yesterday we got some relief from inflation, right? With CPI the lowest increase since February of 2021, doesn't that give you some hope that this the stag inflation is not there right now presently. And if you look at the overall market, if you look at it on a 30 year basis, the dot com bubble, the market fell 77%, financial crisis 57%, the European debt crisis 22%, pandemic 34% we're always higher. On average the market increases by 10% a year historically. So if you've missed the 30 best days in the last 30 years you've given back 83% of your performance. So it's the old what's the line Dom?
- [07:09]
Dominic Chu
It's not fine, it's not timing the market Is time in the market? Yep.
- [07:15]
Julie Beal
So I just.
- [07:15]
Tim Seymour
Nice how you guys did that. Could you do that again?
- [07:17]
Dominic Chu
Yeah.
- [07:18]
Julie Beal
I knew where it was. I knew where it was going to go. He's a master of these cliches. But, but the, the point is, I'm. I'm not bullish every day. I'm bullish every year. Stay in the market. Unless you have a daughter that's going to school or a son that's going to school or you're retiring or you.
- [07:36]
Dominic Chu
Need a down payment on the house.
- [07:37]
Julie Beal
You need a down payment on the house. Set it and forget it and take these little hiccups. Karen's always, always long because she's a value investor. She's got to be in the market. I like to play it from, from the hip. I'm long market.
- [07:50]
Dominic Chu
All right, so, Julie, let's bring you into the discussion now as well. For the price action that we've seen off the recent lows, it seems like we've gotten back to where we, what we've always done, which is to buy big cap, mega cap, technology, telecommunications and services and everything else like that. Is the MAG7 trade something that you're looking at as the blueprint for any possible upside to come?
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Christina Parsonables
Well, I think where investors are going is where the earnings growth is. And so that is still the place where there is the most dynamic and meaningful earnings growth. We're not seeing it in small cap, we're not seeing it in mid cap, and a lot of large cap just doesn't have it. And so to me, it makes sense. When we rotate into this, people really want to be at the forefront of the AI theme. They want to feel confident that they are positioned to benefit from that. And, you know, my question is always the same, which is in terms of technology disruptions, it's not always the disruptors for whom the economic gains accrue. Right. It's not always the disruptors who make the most money. So I think it's really important to be thoughtful about why you're investing in these companies. If it's because they are quasi monopolies, that's different. I kind of agree with that. But I think the overall outlook for AI, to me, is still uncertain. And I think that you're probably better served by being a bit more diversified and focusing on quality.
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Dominic Chu
All right, so there is an interesting way. This is the charcuterie plate. Right. Because now we're going to get into a big part of the discussion for more on the impact of all the stuff we just talked about and Higher yields in the stock market and everything else. Let's bring in Andy Constant, the CEO and Chief Investment Officer over at Damp Spring Advisors. Andy, I think you've heard the conversation here. It's an interesting debate that's happening right now. I wonder if you could frame for us what your thoughts are about whether a stock market continue higher in the face of rising interest rates.
- [09:42]
Andy Constant
Right. So I think that what's happened over the last since election has been really a tale of two men. A almost a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde sort of environment. Where initially everyone expected a soon after the election for President Trump to be Dr. Jekyll like he was in term.
- [10:05]
Karen Feinerman
And.
- [10:08]
Andy Constant
Markets began pricing that. But after inauguration Mr. Hyde appeared and he was quite bad for markets. Since the tariff pause, Mr. Hyde has come. Dr. Hyde is. Dr. Jekyll has come back, sorry. And markets have recovered. This chart shows the ratio of stocks to bonds. So when it's rising stocks are outperforming bonds and when it's falling stocks are underperforming bonds. And really from inauguration to the day that the tariffs were paused it was bad for stocks, good for bonds. And that's because of the policies. Dr. Jecky's policies observable in term one expected after the election and certainly last month were to cut taxes modestly, cut expenditures, allow the deficit to rise which drives growth in this environment, likely sticky inflation and also creates supply of bonds. And so Dr. Jekyll measured his success with growth in the economy and rising stock prices. Mr. Hyde was very different and measured success with the 10 year rate. His policies were aggressive deficit reduction via spending cuts and a complete reshaping of global trade via tariffs. Those policies were heavily anti Growth and Mr. Hyde was great for bonds and bad for stocks.
- [11:42]
Dominic Chu
And so Andy, I just got a question though because in the past when this has happened there have been those folks out there who find value in getting a 4 1/2% yield on a 10 year treasury or a 5% yield on a 30 year long bond. There is an argument to be made that capital is going to flow because people want to take those yields and take advantage of them. How much is that going to be to the detriment of the stock market?
- [12:12]
Andy Constant
Yeah, I mean I think that's the question which is if we continue on this Dr. Jekyll path, bond yields are going to continue to rise as the deficit rises, as growth rises, as inflation may may not have the one off tariff increase but may be stickier for longer keeping the Fed on hold. And so if we Continue to have a Dr. Jekyll type environment where and pumps stocks and pumps growth. I think long bond yields can rise quite a bit before they start impacting stocks.
- [12:45]
Dominic Chu
All right, there's the view on the stock versus the bond market. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Andy, constant damp spring. Thank you very much. We'll see you again soon, sir. Sure. All right, let's trade this guys. If it, if it is a scenario, Karen, where there is competing, I guess returns in terms of where the bond market is and the yield you get versus what's happening in the stock market and people feel as though it's attractive enough to be in the bond market. Now I would argue that that takes away some of the fuel from the stock market.
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Karen Feinerman
Agree. I think it takes away. You're saying it takes away dollars or what's happened that would make one go into bonds, I think dollars for sure.
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Dominic Chu
Right?
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Karen Feinerman
Yeah. Well, we'll see, you know where they're in their deep knee deep, neck deep, I don't know how deep in tax policy. Now we'll see that push or pull about will there be any realistic hope for deficit reduction? Right. If there is, I'm skeptical. But if there is, that would be good for bonds. But I'm a little skeptical that I think it'll be more of a party for the equity market.
- [13:46]
Dominic Chu
What do you think, Tim?
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Tim Seymour
Well, I don't know whether Robert Louis Stevenson was a buyer of stocks or bonds here, but I think the most important question is is, is after the blink or after what went on in Liberation Day, are foreign buyers and are they Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde? Because the bigger issue to me is whether U.S. treasury markets became less investable to the rest of the world and how long term the damage might be from that. I'm one who says not only reserve currency but reserve bond market for the foreseeable. I do think that there are elements of what have gone on in the last three months that have had a lot of foreign investors puzzled. I don't think a 45010 year or a 5% long bond is enough to move people that are not investors in, in those bond markets to be moving out of equities into bonds. No way. I think there are bond investors that obviously are looking for 10 relative value basis pick up points and find as you said, some value here in the tenure. But again, it gets back to. Look, we're already getting a sense of the rest of the White House policy. The White House policy is geared towards things that are probably deficit unfriendly remember the campaign trail. It's all we talked about. We talked about a deficit and Andy's been on this show before at times where we spent a lot of time just on the refunding schedule. This is more about those dynamics. It's not about are yields too high to derail an equity market? The equity market's fine if the economy is fine. And what we heard from this earnings season is very conservative company management that weren't willing to stick their neck out. This is a snapback based upon being at the total extreme again, Jekyll and Hyde, of where, of where the market's confidence was. And just because we've gone back to 450 doesn't mean it's dangerous.
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Dominic Chu
By the way, less mention of stagflation and less mention of bond vigilantes as well in this whole discussion.
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Julie Beal
And we didn't mention the basis trade really quickly.
- [15:28]
Dominic Chu
Where the unwind happened, where the unwind.
- [15:30]
Julie Beal
Happens, which can be as big as 1 trillion notional. So that's having a huge impact on yields right now. Stay the course, people.
- [15:38]
Dominic Chu
Okay, let's talk about what's happening right now in Boeing shares in the green today. Qatar Airways signing their largest deal ever with the planemaker to buy more than 200 jets. Phil LeBeau has the details on why this is so important and just what questions are still left.
- [15:56]
Phil LeBeau
You know, Dom, when we report on wide body orders for Boeing and airbus, it's typically 40, 50, maybe 60. That would be a big order today. What we saw from Qatar is far larger than that. Now, Boeing says it is the largest widebody order that it has ever received. A total of up to 210 planes. Here's the breakdown. These are firm orders. The 130 and the 30, 130 Dreamliners, 37, 77 9s. That's the 777X that is yet to be certified. And then there are options for 50 more planes, a mix of the 787 and the 777. So let's start first off talking about the 787, the backlog there is for 759 planes. They are making progress about gradually increasing production at the plant in Charleston, South Carolina, and they expect to do that later this year and then in subsequent years. They're at 5 right now per month. The expectation is that they'll grow from there. With regard to the 777X, as I mentioned, it has not yet been certified. Could that happen by the end of this year? If it does, then you'll start to see it go into production, the backlog and there's demand out there for this aircraft. 496 planes. Take a look at shares of Boeing over the last year. The delivery so far, year to date, 175 planes. But the belief is that they are showing the kind of progress that you want to see when it comes to the 737 Max. And as a result you are likely to see monthly deliveries gradually increase throughout the year. Also take a look at shares of GE Aerospace. Why are we showing you this? GE Aerospace is the primary 787 engine supplier. They have about two thirds of the market when it comes to the Dreamliner. And then when it comes to the 777X, they are the sole engine provider with that aircraft. Big day not only for GE Aerospace, for Boeing. You don't see these orders too often, Dom, and fittingly that the President is over there that he would want to announce it earlier today. Total value of this, when you look at Boeing and GE, about $96 billion is what the expectation is, especially if you go at list prices. Remember, these aircraft are never sold at list prices.
- [18:08]
Dominic Chu
All right, Phil LeBeau, massive deal. And Boeing has become a lot for this administration and maybe the standard bearer of policy for business across the entire world. Phil, thank you very much for that. Let's trade this. I'm going to start with you, Steve, on Boeing. This has been no shortage of news and it feels like the 737 Max stuff is almost very distant in the rearview mirror at this point because it's all very forward looking with these orders.
- [18:33]
Julie Beal
It does, but the faa, there's still some manufacturing restrictions on these. The old, the old restriction was 38 per month of the 737 Max that they were allowed to produce. Now I understand if you're friendly with the administration, that could easily change. But I think the regulatory scrutiny, the certification, as Phil alluded to, were said there's a lot, there's a host of issues, safety concerns. So I would probably be on the side of selling on pops versus buying.
- [19:00]
Dominic Chu
This is a stock that's already up north of 15% on, on a year to date basis. Tim?
- [19:06]
Tim Seymour
Well, I mean, you know, it's not a joke. I mean this is the, this is the B in bland. And by the way, I really think this.
- [19:15]
Karen Feinerman
Or bland.
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Tim Seymour
Bland. So I'm banned, but I'm always dropping in that L wherever I can because I'm holding on to Lyft for whatever reasons for multiple years. But no, I think you're Buying, you're buying weakness in Boeing. This is a company, I mean, Carter talked about the chart. This was the conversation from yesterday.
- [19:30]
Dominic Chu
Yesterday.
- [19:31]
Tim Seymour
If you're going to have, if you're looking for trade surplus, this is the company to do it with. This is the company to Kelly Ortberg to walk hand in hand with Donald Trump around the world and say buy our planes. And the White House and Trump particularly are fascinated with the aviation sector. This is exactly why you're buying Boeing, not just because of the headlines here, but because, and Steve's right, I mean, there's plenty of regulatory, regulatory scrutiny. Wide body, by the way, equals wide profits. I mean, this is the most profitable airline, excuse me, 787, 777 make them a lot more money than the 737s. This is a company that if you think about where they sit market in terms of the recovery of their free cash flow, I think the street and I think investors can be caught at least a little bit off in terms of how quickly this company becomes positive on free cash flow.
- [20:18]
Dominic Chu
All right, that's the Boeing trade. Coming up on the show after hours action to bring you shares of Cisco and Core. We've both on the move after reporting the results. The details from those respective quarters coming up next. Plus, a done deal in the weight loss drug space. Novo's latest scoop up as the company doubles down on its oral glp. One bet, weight loss, diabetes. The details when fast money returns into Comcast business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking, frictionless paying favorite shopping destinations. It's how nationwide restaurants become touchscreen ordering quick serving eateries and how hospitals become.
- [20:58]
Tim Seymour
The patient scanning data, managing healthcare facilities.
- [21:01]
Dominic Chu
That we all depend on. With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership, Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business. Powering possibilities. Restrictions apply. Introducing cnbc, the new streaming platform from the number one source in business news. Watch live or on demand. Access any market, anytime, anywhere. Start streaming. Go to cnbc.com stream now. All right, welcome back. We have a news alert on the Wall Street Journal reporting a potential deal between Dick's Sporting Goods and Foot Locker. Foot Locker is exploding higher on the news and our Kate Rooney has the very latest details. Kate, what can you tell us?
- [21:46]
Kate Rooney
So Dom, you can see shares were up more than 67% on this wall Street Journal report. Shares of Foot Locker, I should say that there could be a mega merger in the apparel space. Wall Street Journal reporting Dick's Sporting Goods is close to a deal to buy Foot Locker. Journal Here, citing people familiar with the matter. They say the deal that both sides are discussing, the deal would be about 24 bucks a share. That equates to roughly $2.3 billion. If you look at it in terms of a premium. It's about a 90% premium on Footlocker's current price. Journal saying deal could be finalized as soon as Thursday barring any sort of last minute snags here. But both of these companies had been hit by tariffs which upended supply chain, then caused Foot Locker stock with that supply chain and tariff hit had been down as of Wednesday's close, about 40%. As I mentioned, shares surging after hours on this M and A news. Dick Sporting Goods heading the other direction though, down about 5%. Back to you.
- [22:43]
Dominic Chu
All right, Kate Rooney with the latest there on a potential mega merger in sporting goods. Let's kind of talk about this really quickly. Karen. This is a name that you were, you've been kind of in and out of. I would like to know whether or not you think this is a good deal.
- [22:57]
Karen Feinerman
A good deal for Footlocker. Yes, for Foot Locker.
- [23:01]
Dominic Chu
It's a Stock that's down 43% in the last year.
- [23:03]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah. You know, so Mary Dillon came there with great fanfare. She obviously did a tremendous job at Ulta and she had this multi year lace up plan and really wanted to make the stores somewhere that, you know, like there's a few great Foot Locker stores as opposed to tons of stores in every mall. And it really ran into trouble. And then you had Nike sales down and, and they also, all, all of them had the huge bubble of spending in the early pandemic and then the huge fall off and they were just never able to turn it around, I think. I mean it's not crazy expensive. So I could see how Dick's would want to do that and it could be profitable for them. I can also see how Foot Locker would. This is a lifeline for them that it's not like they're not going under. It's not that, that. But they have not been able to.
- [23:52]
Tim Seymour
Generate what to me, I'm just trying to understand what the strategic vision is.
- [23:55]
Dominic Chu
I mean, why Dicks for dicks for dicks.
- [23:57]
Tim Seymour
Right. And by the way, 14 and a half percent short interest in Foot Locker has something to do with this scramble here. That's, that's a massive short interest to be chasing this deal.
- [24:06]
Karen Feinerman
So you're going to be a very big wholesaler. Right. So leverage. Right. More leverage with Nike and on and Hoka and whoever. So I think that's. That has to be part of the reason. And then maybe also in apparel. I don't know. I think it's just. Well, in a prior administration, maybe if. Maybe a retail deal like this wouldn't get done in this one. In this world with Foot Locker being as small as it is now. I think this will get done if there is indeed a deal.
- [24:34]
Dominic Chu
Hey, Julie. These are two very well known brand names when it comes to sporting goods and retail and footwear and apparel. I'm just curious what your thoughts are given what we. I mean, again, this is source reporting from the Journal. So it's not a done deal, but there's obviously kind of where there's smoke, there's fire coming out.
- [24:51]
Christina Parsonables
Yeah, absolutely. I don't think we'd be hearing about this if it weren't a serious opportunity for Dix. You know, this is a management team that has done a pretty admirable job in terms of capital allocation. Retail is among the hardest spaces. And I agree. I think for them the opportunity is really in having more bargaining power with the wholesalers. Particularly as all of these companies have turned to more direct to consumer. I think they're really trying to be able to counter that and have really relevant conversations about, look at how much distribution we can really give you, especially if we can turn around Footlocker, the points and the retail and the real estate that they have is valuable. And I think that that's really what they're going to try to push. Look, if we can make Footlocker work, it's going to be a big driver of your business. And I think that's probably the positioning they're taking.
- [25:34]
Dominic Chu
All right, Steve, what do you.
- [25:35]
Julie Beal
Yeah, this definitely to that point of leverage over. Over Adidas, over Nike. This gives Dick's that type of scale. And then if you close, there's going to be some overlap on stores. So there's going to be a lot more efficiencies that come through this deal. So I think it's a positive for Dick's. Doesn't have to get done, but I think it's net.
- [25:52]
Dominic Chu
Net.
- [25:52]
Julie Beal
It's a positive. If you own Dick's. I would stay long. Stay long.
- [25:55]
Dominic Chu
The name.
- [25:55]
Julie Beal
If you're not in it, I would dabble. I would probably try to see if there's some upside here.
- [26:00]
Phil LeBeau
Foot Locker.
- [26:00]
Dominic Chu
Karen, I'm going to give you the last word on this. I mean, these are two different store formats, by the way. Yeah, Foot Locker versus Dick's.
- [26:07]
Karen Feinerman
I'm wondering. I don't know this is just my thinking about it just on the fly about this wholesale issue, right? Nike's biggest customer wholesale is Footlocker. So that's, that's some big leverage for Dick's. I think for Mary Dillon, who's a great operator. I think that this is not a, not a tremendous outcome which you got there two or three years ago. I think her plan called for margins much, much higher than here and a stock price that would have been significantly higher.
- [26:34]
Tim Seymour
And I'll just say really quickly, this is hugely opportunistic by Dick's. I bet this deal wasn't even on a thought about, you know, before the tariff dynamics. I mean this is something. And you know, while Foot Locker has recovered somewhat in the post, you know, the same market run up, it is still essentially trading below where it was even in the world where we knew pent up demand which had been kind of filled and oversaturated after, after Covid. I, I think this is a deal that really is a scramble and I think it is part of you know, a, the strategy that they're talking about with, with Nike.
- [27:04]
Dominic Chu
All right, we'll see what else comes of this on this news from the Journal coming up on the show here. Cisco and Core, we've on the move. The numbers behind the action coming up next. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets on Times Square. We got more fast right after this. Introducing cnbc, the new streaming platform from the number one source in business news. Watch live or on demand. Access any market, anytime, anywhere. Start Streaming. Go to cnbc.com stream now. Welcome back to Fast Money Big news to report out here. Our next Fast Money live event for June 5 is now sold out. So thanks to all the loyal fans, sorry don watchers and listeners out there who are coming to see the live show. But if you didn't get your ticket already, please take a look at that QR code on the screen. Join the wait list. There's still a chance you can score a ticket. If you are still interested. Just again scan the QR code on your screen. Go to CNBC events.com fastmoneylive to join this now sold out wait list event.
- [28:11]
Tim Seymour
And I will, by the way, I will be scalping tickets outside just FYI with black concert tees as well.
- [28:16]
Dominic Chu
I know, I'm not even sure what the ethical implications are for that. But anyway, Times Square.
- [28:21]
Julie Beal
No ethics in Times Square.
- [28:22]
Dominic Chu
It's Elmo giving you a hug while you're getting Fast Money live ticket. Let's get into Some of the tech stocks on the move after earnings starting with Cisco Systems shares popping after reporting earnings and revenues that topped expectations plus a better than expected forecast. That's the key these days, right? Also core weave initially higher but now negative after results for its first quarter as a public company. The cloud computing company reporting a gap loss, accounting parlance of A$49 a share and revenues that came in above estimates soaring over 400% versus the same time last year. Christina Parsonables joins us on set with more out of both of those reports and Christina will let you have the stage for both of them right now. Thank you.
- [29:02]
Kate Rooney
Thank you. So despite all the tariff uncertainty, Cisco CEO saying on the call they did not see any meaningful change in cut customer purchasing nor signs of any demand being pulled forward. As for CapEx, Cisco CEO also and this is Chuck Robbins by the way, he said he does not think 2025 will be the peak year. Earlier about an hour ago I caught up with Cisco CFO Scott Heron who is by the way retiring is going to be replaced by Cisco's current Chief Strategy Officer Mark Patterson effective 2026. So next quarter. But the CEO told CFO told me there's going to be or the more lenient tariffs and the US Administration ca compliant goods imported from Mexico that were exempted all acted as tailwinds for margins which is why they improved this quarter and why guidance for margins also higher. The company also took in $6,600,000,000 worth of orders, an improvement from last quarter and passed their yearly billion dollar target. And now for core wave over you said it over 400% year over year revenue growth. They rent GPUs as a service. This is a cloud computing provider and the results really provide for the further backing that spending is set to continue at its pace this year despite worries of economic uncertainty. And I say that because the CEO said on the call that the strong demand backdrop had led them to push their Q2. I shouldn't say push it, but provide Q2 revenue guidance in the range of 1.06 to $1.1 billion. And they also said they haven't seen any impact on consumer behavior. If anything, demand is improving, accelerating. The CEO also saying they raised $21 billion in Q1 to expand infrastructure and data centers to fuel expansion across the globe. And there's more that I can get into should you want about debt and just the comments.
- [30:47]
Dominic Chu
Okay so if there's anything that you've seen Christina, for the takeaway on one say one each what stood out the Most to you about Cisco, both of.
- [30:56]
Kate Rooney
Them said that there's been no change in customer behavior and if anything demand still remains strong. So that is a very bullish remark for the tech space as a whole, especially going into the next quarter. That's my first positive takeaway in regards to Corey. The share price is down dramatically. I still haven't figured it out yet because they did provide a guidance. They did say that in terms of their debt structure which is a huge concern last year, $7.9 billion expectation for this year is $21 billion. On the call he said that their multi year contract revenues cover more than cover the cost of capex with contracts and help them scale their debt structure. So what he's saying is that they're getting in enough money to pay off all of those interest payments which I think is important but yet the market is really all over the place with this name.
- [31:40]
Dominic Chu
All right, Julie, I want to go out to you for this one, especially for coreweave. What are your thoughts here on the report that just came out? It's first as a public company and of course very much backed by Nvidia.
- [31:51]
Christina Parsonables
Absolutely. The first company. The first time a company reports, it's always a little bit hairy. You should be able to meet your guidance and improve it. Typically it's like you have the answers normally when you're doing your IPO roadshow. So if they miss the first time out it's really a terrible sign. So it's good to see them doing well. I would love it if they included their guidance in their earnings release. Like this isn't a gender reveal party. Just tell us what you're going to earn. But, but I think looking forward, look, there's good momentum and I'm encouraged to hear all of these companies, Cisco as well saying that demand is holding up as well as it is. I think that's been a concern for all of us is that consumer spending is still very unclear but business spending and investment looks like it's holding in pretty well which is a good sign for the economy.
- [32:37]
Dominic Chu
All right, there's the action on core. You've and Cisco Systems. Thank you guys very much for that. Coming up on the show, what could be the read on tariffs, inflation in the state of the American future consumer. We're taking a long first look at Wal Mart earnings ahead of tomorrow morning's big print. And our next guest says pull forward could take center stage. Keep it right here. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks are closing mix. As you can see there, the dolphin, the Dow falling 90 points with the S and P out with a small gain in the Nasdaq jumping about three quarters of a percent now on a six day, by the way, winning streak. Shares of Tesla notching a sixth straight day of gains. The stock is up more than 26% in that time. Boot Barn surging after hours. The retailer missing on the top and the bottom lines, but announcing a share repurchase program and upping current quarter guidance as well. And as we just told you just moments ago, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Dick's Sporting Goods is in talks to potentially buy Foot locker in a $2.3 billion deal that's worth about $24 a share, a 90% premium over where Foot Locker closed today. All of those stocks in the news. Joining us now to break down some of that action is Telsey Advisory Group's managing director and assistant research director, Joe Feldman. We're going to get your thoughts on the big report of the morning tomorrow, which is Walmart in just a moment. But Joe, you also cover Dick's Sporting Goods. What do you make of this?
- [34:07]
Joe Feldman
Yeah, I'm not particularly thrilled to hear that the Dick's is going after Foot Locker. I see why it's a good deal for Foot Locker. Obviously your stock is double the offer price would be double what they currently are trading at. But from Dick's and they've been looking for a buyer for a little while at Foot Locker. Now from Dick's side of it, the bull case would suggest, okay, you could take out a competitor, you could get greater buying power with the sporting goods brand and have a broader assortment, you know, both off mall on and then in the mall type of stores and format. But Foot Locker is a pretty complex organization, right? I mean, it's got thousands of stores, it's across the world. I mean, a third of their business is international. They have multiple brands and several within the same malls. So it's a lot of work for Dick's Sporting to digest this. And honestly, it's a long time ago, but they don't have a great history of going after and acquiring some business.
- [35:08]
Dominic Chu
Okay, so there is the interesting take from Joe on what's happening with Foot Locker and Dick's. I want to now pivot what's happening, Joe, with tomorrow because it is arguably the earnings report of the retail season and it's Walmart. So the open question to you is what are you expecting?
- [35:25]
Joe Feldman
Yeah, I think we're going to see Walmart put up pretty solid sales numbers. They had an analyst day back in the second week of April and they told the investment community they were going to do sales growth of 3 to 4%. They said everything was fine. We know that Easter leading into Easter, sales picked up for most of retail and once spring broke across the country, we've seen pretty good trends. So I think sales are going to be pretty solid. I'm a little concerned what they're going to say in terms of earnings. They did widen that range that they had given. So we might see, you know, that's where there could be a little slippage to the downside. Just given some of the expense structure that they have and some incremental expenses like property claims, things like that that they're going to have to deal with. But you know, the go forward I think will be pretty interesting. I think they're going to talk about a consumer that is still stretched but somewhat resilient, especially that middle to upper income consumer. I think they'll also talk about that lower income consumer facing, you know, a more pronounced paycheck cycle and really trying to stretch those dollars through the month.
- [36:28]
Dominic Chu
How much are you, Joe, going to be scrutinizing the individual results and commentary coming from places like the grocery segment versus kind of the soft goods, hard goods segment versus the bigger ticket items. And what exactly would you read into that with regard to Walmart story vis a vis the tariff outlook?
- [36:48]
Joe Feldman
Yeah, I think that's going to be a big focus as well. Like what the merchandise categories that are selling. You're definitely seeing good trends among in the grocery space, consumables, any household essentials. And I think Wal Mart's going to be a big winner within that. We've seen them taking market share in those categories. I'm hoping to see that their discretionary business continues that path of improvement that we've seen the past couple of quarters and that their online business is still growing nicely, that membership still growing. I think we're going to see a lot of those trends continue. Again. It was, you know, a couple of weeks ago when they had that analyst event, they sounded pretty positive about underlying trends that they had not really seen any slippage in the consumer. Especially as you look at the different distribution of income cohorts. I think we're going to see that's what's going to carry Walmart this year is likely a very heavy dose of consumables with sprinkling in some discretionary goods on top of that.
- [37:46]
Dominic Chu
All right, Joe, thank you very much for the thoughts on Walmart. We appreciate it and good luck tomorrow covering that Story for us.
- [37:52]
Phil LeBeau
Us.
- [37:52]
Joe Feldman
Thank you.
- [37:53]
Dominic Chu
All right, Steve, I'll go to you on the Wal Mart story. This is a big one. It is economic bellwether.
- [37:59]
Julie Beal
I would argue the fact that 60% of their revenues comes from groceries. And if you think that we're at peak inflation, which I do think we're at peak inflation, egg prices on a wholesale level came in 50%. On a retail level, they have not dropped as precipitously as the wholesale level, if you believe.
- [38:16]
Tim Seymour
Ripping us off on our eggs.
- [38:18]
Dominic Chu
Yeah.
- [38:18]
Julie Beal
Still. Well, I don't know about it. I don't know if it's just them, it's everyone. Right. That they haven't come down. But if you're at peak inflation on food, which I think we've passed, that revenues are going to decline. And one last thing, usually on a P E ratio, Wal Mart historically trades around 28 times, around 40 times now. I would be a seller.
- [38:36]
Dominic Chu
All right, there you go. Coming up on the show, a crack in the IPO thaw. Shares of Etoro surging in their NASDAQ debut. The details from their first day of action and what it could mean for the broader IPO pipeline. Fast Money is back in two. Welcome back to Fast money. A quick check on the Etoro trade surging in its debut here at the nasdaq. The trading platform closing its first day of action up nearly 30%. The IPO price was, by the way, 52 bucks a share. It closed at 67. So now we've got a news alert on the son conference. Point 72, Steve Cohen making some comments on the economy. Our Leslie Picker is at SOHN and has the details. Good afternoon, Leslie.
- [39:24]
Tim Seymour
Hey, good afternoon, Dom. He just got off the stage. He was, of course, speaking at the SOM conference here in New York and was asked about whether we're in a recession. Cohen said the whole thing with Trump, these are his words, and what happened with China was, quote, a little bit.
- [39:38]
Dominic Chu
Of a surprise to him. Yes.
- [39:42]
Joe Feldman
For is this, we're not in a recession yet. I think we are going to have significant slowing growth. We think it'll probably be, you know, like a 45% chance of recession.
- [39:55]
Karen Feinerman
Right.
- [39:56]
Joe Feldman
So that's not insignificant.
- [39:59]
Tim Seymour
Cohen added that point 72 doesn't think the Fed is going to act right away because they're still worried about inflation and tariffs. And next year they think growth will be 1/2% or lower. So he said it's possible we go back to the lows in terms of the markets, something like 10 to 15% down, not a Calamity, he says. But he says what Trump has done actually eliminates the, quote, dire scenario. He thinks the markets will be in a trading range for a while, noting what worked in the past is not going to work this year.
- [40:33]
Dominic Chu
Dom. All right. Thank you very much, Leslie Picker from the SOHN conference in New York City. Tim, we're not in a recession. It may feel like a recession for many parts of the country, but we're technically not there. And Steve Cohen doesn't think we're there either. So are we in a recession in your mind? No.
- [40:49]
Tim Seymour
And we're not close. And the hard data says as much. And I think Steve has a chance to go do some channel checks of his own. Mets are drawing 30,000 fans a night out of Citi Field, and it's alive and well. So, you know, my view is, I think the hedge fund community, first of all, they were the first ones to reverse field change. There's an argument out there that, that some of the, the exposure dynamics and some of the volatility in the market just came from long, short hedge funds really reversing field. I won't, I can't speak to what's going on in point 72 or what, what Steve's doing, but I do think it's a dynamic where hedge funds have tended to be a little bit more bearish and they're probably a little bit more cynical here. And I think that's fair. We just, we did that earlier in the show, but, but again, from the perspective of a Mets fan, it's hard to slow down. I had to do that. I mean, you can't blame me for.
- [41:34]
Dominic Chu
Going to forgive you for it. All right.
- [41:36]
Phil LeBeau
All right.
- [41:36]
Dominic Chu
Coming up on the show, buying the dip seems to have paid off for now. How retail investors navigated all the volatility, the specific stocks they scooped up, and if tariff anxiety has cooled after the cuts. That's next. More fast into.
- [41:52]
Karen Feinerman
The.
- [41:57]
Dominic Chu
All right. Welcome back to FAST money. Retail investors are staying cautious despite the temporary tariff truth with China, according to Investopedia's latest investor sentiment survey. And here to break it down is Investopedia Editor in Chief Caleb Silver, who joins us on Set Fresh with the results. So tell us what the retail investor is doing.
- [42:14]
Steve Grasso
Yeah. Hot off the presses. We kept this going over the weekend because we wanted to capture how people felt after the relaxation in the tariff situation there. And they're still cautiously optimistic, Still a little bit worried, More than a little bit worried. I'd say 55% say they are cautiously optimistic, 18% are just downright worried. 28%. I should say extremely worried. 31% say they're investing less due to the volatility. But we know there's another good chunk that stayed in this. And we're buying the dips, right. Buying some of their favorite stocks on discount. Irrespective of how they felt about how things were going, they saw discounts in stocks and they started buying.
- [42:46]
Dominic Chu
So, Caleb, where exactly? Because this survey also looks at where the action is. So where exactly is it? Mag7 or is it more diversified than that?
- [42:54]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, even more diversified than that. So we look, we ask them, what are you buying? What are you holding? What are your favorite stocks? What would you buy now and hold for 10 years? That looks like the Mag 7, plus Berkshire Hathaway, plus some banks in there as well. So it's a pretty diversified crowd. Also, Ford creeping in to the top 10 this month as well. We look at Vander Research, which is great stuff on individual investors outside of their 401ks. That list is very interesting when you look at some of the stocks they were buying. Ford is definitely on that list. But top of that list is Tesla on deep discount. They were buying that stock. One of the hardest buys they were buying over the last couple of months. So Nvidia, Palantir, AMD, Amazon, Apple, Robinhood, American Airlines, Ford, and the top 10 retail buys over the last few weeks, Even amid the chaos and the volatility, that's where individual investors that were buying were buying.
- [43:40]
Dominic Chu
And Caleb, one of the things you also ask in your surveys is if you had hypothetically, I know this is tough, but if you had an extra ten grand to invest, what would you do with it? So what exactly was the response there?
- [43:51]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, that's the sort of the discretionary investing question. You could put this anywhere right now. Where would you put it? You'd think with the rally, it would be back in individual stocks. It's not. People want to play it safe. They've seen what's happened. They're like, okay, okay, we're back to where we were. But right now, the preponderance of people are saying money markets, CDs and high yield savings accounts, then index funds and ETFs, then you get to individual stocks. So sometimes when risk is on, it's definitely individual stocks and the rest are far behind right now. Let me play it safe with this 10,000 bucks and we'll see what else happens. They're happy with the recovery. They're just not convinced that it's going to continue. Or that we go higher from here.
- [44:25]
Dominic Chu
Hence the cautiously optimistic guys. Caleb Silver, Investopedia. Thank you very much, you. We'll see you soon. All right, next up is final trades, so keep it right here. All right, it's that time. Final trades. Let's go around the horn. Julie, starting with you.
- [44:45]
Christina Parsonables
I like Teledyne's more defensive portfolio and evaluation. That's attractive.
- [44:50]
Dominic Chu
All right, Tim, two days in a row.
- [44:51]
Tim Seymour
Dom, great having you. Cisco, great numbers. AI was there.
- [44:55]
Dominic Chu
Karen, yeah.
- [44:56]
Karen Feinerman
Giant Tech run. But I think it's a little overdone, so find some QQQ Footspread.
- [45:01]
Dominic Chu
All right?
- [45:02]
Julie Beal
And Steve, Lucid Motors Backstop Saudi sovereign wealth fund.
- [45:05]
Dominic Chu
It's been a pleasure being with you guys. Melissa Lee is back tomorrow. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Introducing CNBC, the new streaming platform from the number one source in business news. Watch live or on demand. Access any market, anytime, anywhere. Start Streaming. Go to cnbc.com stream now.