CNBC Fast Money – Episode Summary

Air Date: September 16, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Guests & Panel: Karen Finerman, Courtney Garcia, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Eamon Javers, Subhadra Jafa
Main Focus: Market moves, TikTok deal, Fed decision preview, weight loss drug developments, international tech investments, retail sector trends, housing finance, and the Warner Bros/Paramount deal.

Episode Overview

This episode centered around several major themes affecting investors:

• The developing US TikTok deal and its implications for US-China trade and tech regulation.
• Anticipation of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, and its wide-reaching market impact.
• Major stock movers in pharmaceuticals (notably Novo Nordisk), retail, and tech, coupled with deep-dive analysis of sector trends.
• Big moves in international tech investments, particularly US AI and chip giants in the UK.
• The evolving landscape of retail, housing finance, and media mergers.

Key Discussion Points

1. US TikTok Deal: Structure and Politics

[02:17–08:52]

• Summary:
  Eamon Javers provided breaking news on the new TikTok framework:
  • Major US investors (Andreessen Horowitz, Oracle, Silver Lake) to own 80% of TikTok’s US entity.
  • The board will be American-dominated, including one US government appointee.
  • TikTok US employees will “reengineer” the recommendation algorithm, central to national security concerns.
  • President Trump extended non-enforcement of the TikTok law until December 16th.
• Market Reaction & Concerns:
  • Panelists highlighted the political ambiguity of repeated deadline extensions and questioned who, ultimately, controls content and the algorithm.
  • Guy Adami: "It's more positive for the Chinese market than the US Market, in my opinion." [05:36]
  • Dan Nathan noted unease with the “cozy” arrangement benefiting politically connected US firms like Oracle.
• Algorithm Importance:
  • Melissa Lee: “That really is the goldmine of TikTok... Is reengineering going to make it as effective as it is right now?” [07:50]
  • Courtney Garcia stressed competition for AI talent and the risk that if the algorithm degrades, TikTok could lose value rapidly.

2. Fed Decision Preview: Rate Cuts, Market Signals, and Inflation

[10:58–20:54]

• Market Signals:
  • Anticipation of a 25bps rate cut, the first since December.
  • Gold at another record, the dollar at three-year lows, regional banks under pressure.
  • Disconnect between strong equities and persistent gold rally.
• Long-Term Rates and Curve:
  • Melissa Lee raised the prospect that rate cuts during strong economies “can spur increased activity,” possibly raising long-term inflation and impacting mortgage rates. [12:00]
  • Dan Nathan: “I still am one of the few people think 10-year yields are going higher from here.” [13:46]
• Uncertainties Around Fed & Market:
  • Courtney Garcia alluded to the Lisa Cook/Supreme Court uncertainty possibly affecting Fed governance at the next meeting.
  • Plans for up to 6 rate cuts by end of next year may be overly optimistic.
• Expert Interview – Subhadra Jafa, SocGen:
  • Jafa: “If the Fed cuts rates aggressively, you might actually see the long end yields rise. Inflation expectations start to rise. That's not a good thing.” [15:53]
  • Warned against an assumption of an ultradovish path and highlighted recent broad-based inflation.

3. Market Reactions: Gold, Dollar, International & Sector Winners

[19:10–21:46]

• Gold & Dollar:
  • Gold seen as new ‘flight to safety’ ahead of the dollar.
  • Invesco recommended “maximum short the dollar,” and panelists broadly expected dollar weakness to continue.
  • Courtney Garcia: “If the dollar does continue to weaken, I actually think that's a good way to look at it and play it.” [20:25]
• International Equities:
  • Outperformance of developed and emerging markets (+20% YTD), benefiting from dollar weakness.

4. Weight Loss Drugs: Novo Nordisk and Lilly

[23:50–28:05]

• Novo Nordisk’s Stock Boost:
  • Positive data on the amylin-targeting shot (Cagrelantide), with 12% avg. weight loss and much fewer side effects than GLP-1 competitors.
  • CEO hinting at fast-track FDA review for its oral obesity drug. Possible $1B early revenue if rapid approval.
  • Notable Quote: “The main attraction for amylin drugs is that they might come with fewer side effects than GLP1. Novo is touting the tolerability, saying that just 1% of people in the trial stopped taking the drug because of nausea.” — Jim Cramer [24:16]
  • Analyst upgrades and competitive comparisons to Lilly, with many now reconsidering Novo’s value.

5. International Tech Investments: UK AI & Chip Push

[29:28–34:35]

• Major Deals Announced:
  • Nvidia: £11B investment with N Scale and CoreWeave, 120,000 Blackwell GPUs to the UK.
  • OpenAI: Bringing Stargate to UK, potentially buying 31,000 GPUs.
  • Microsoft: $30B over four years, chiefly for AI CapEx, partnering with N Scale, Satya Nadella to visit.
  • Presence of top US, UK, and tech execs for political theater ahead of President Trump’s visit.
• Panel Response:
  • Dan Nathan: “These are investments that companies were planning anyway… a lot of political theatrics going on.” [33:03]
  • Courtney Garcia: Emphasized the impact on supporting sectors, notably energy for data center expansion.

6. Retail Roundup: Disconnect Between Sales and Stocks

[35:26–38:33]

• Retail Sales Up, But Stocks Down:
  • August sales outperformed expectations, but key retail names (Gap, Urban Outfitters, etc.) declined.
  • Karen Finerman: “In a different environment you could make the case that the back to school season was very strong is usually an indicator of a strong Halloween, a strong holiday season also.” [36:31]
  • Panelists noted the consumer’s relatively good financial health but questioned possible tariff-induced pull-forward.
  • Dan Nathan: “Americans do what Americans do and that is buy a lot of crap. But I'm guessing that doesn't make you more optimistic about retail.” [37:41]

7. Housing Market: Fannie & Freddie Privatization and Rates

[39:53–42:41]

• Privatization Concerns:
  • Willie Walker of Walker & Dunlop, in an interview with Diana Olek, warned that privatizing Fannie/Freddie while keeping government conservatorship creates uncertainty for investors.
  • Treasury Secretary Bessant and FHFA Director friction adds more uncertainty.
  • 30-year fixed mortgage hit a 3-year low, though expectations are for rates to rebound post-Fed decision.
  • Guy Adami warned of a classic "sell the news" market reaction.

8. Media Merger Watch: Warner Bros./Paramount

[43:08–46:00]

• Stock Pullback & Merger Talk:
  • TD Cowan downgraded Warner Bros. after its post-merger-speculation run up (almost +50% in five days).
  • Analyst report titled "Leave it to the risk arbs."
  • Panelists note risk of the bid falling through and significant leverage in the deal.
  • Guy Adami: "If you want to play this for 24, you got to be willing to risk 14 on the down or options..." [45:14]

9. Lightning Round: Final Trades

[46:11–46:48]

• Dan Nathan: Bearish on Oracle given uncertainty around TikTok/Oracle clarity.
• Karen Finerman: Bullish on Novo Nordisk (“like it again today”).
• Courtney Garcia: Emphasized developed markets for international exposure if dollar weakens.
• Guy Adami: Bullish on Valero; lighthearted comment on Melissa Lee’s glasses.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Eamon Javers (on TikTok deal): “TikTok is one of the most powerful media organizations in the country and controls what a lot of Americans see on a daily... I think there's going to be some political scrutiny of exactly who goes on this board.” [04:07]
• Melissa Lee (on TikTok algorithm): “That really is the goldmine of TikTok is their algorithm seems to be much better than what you're getting on Metta or some of their competitors.” [07:50]
• Guy Adami (on gold/dollar): “Gold goes up seemingly in every environment we can think of is somewhat problematic.” [11:33]
• Subhadra Jafa (SocGen, on Fed policy): “If the Fed cuts rates aggressively, you might actually see the long end yields rise. Inflation expectations start to rise. That's not a good thing.” [15:53]
• Dan Nathan (on UK tech investments): “I just think there's a lot of... political theatrics that's going on right here... all these companies we're going to make these investments.” [33:03]
• Jim Cramer (on weight loss drugs): “Main attraction for amylin drugs is that they might come with fewer side effects than GLP1. Novo is touting the tolerability...” [24:16]
• Karen Finerman (on media deals): “In a different environment... a back to school season [that] was very strong is usually an indicator of a strong... holiday season also.” [36:31]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• TikTok US Deal Developments: [02:17–08:52]
• Fed Meeting Rate Cut Preview & Market Reactions: [10:58–21:46]
• Novo Nordisk/Weight Loss Drugs: [23:50–28:05]
• UK AI/Chip Investments by US Tech Giants: [29:28–34:35]
• Retail Disconnect – Sales Up, Stocks Down: [35:26–38:33]
• Housing Market & Fannie/Freddie Privatization: [39:53–42:41]
• Warner Bros/Paramount Merger Speculation: [43:08–46:00]
• Final Trades: [46:11–46:48]

Episode Tone and Takeaways

This episode was brisk, analytical, and at times skeptical, especially around politically-driven business deals and future market optimism amid evident cross-currents. The focus was on actionable takeaways, skepticism toward headline-driving investments, and the risks/uncertainties lurking beneath recent bullish runs in select stocks and sectors. The interplay between macro trends (Fed, dollar, gold), political moves (TikTok, UK investments), and sector innovation (GLP-1/obesity drugs, AI infrastructure) was central throughout.

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