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CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fast Money 9/16/25
00:44:12
Listen to our traders take you behind the money...how to play the volatility...pops and drops and the movers you missed. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
What does it mean to live a rich life?
- [00:03]
Jim Cramer
It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes.
- [00:08]
Melissa Lee
And everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor.
- [00:18]
Jim Cramer
Will be there to help you move ahead with confidence.
- [00:22]
Melissa Lee
Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can.
- [00:26]
Jim Cramer
To help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones Member, SIPC Turn your gifting game up during the plant and garden sale@1,800flowers.com right now you can score up to 40% off succulents, bonsais, fresh cut blooms and more. Whether you're celebrating a birthday, sending a thank you or a just because surprise, 1-800-FLowers lets you save big on a stunning selection of gifts.
- [00:50]
Karen Finerman
Save up to 40% off during the.
- [00:52]
Jim Cramer
Plant and garden sale at 1-800-flowers.com sxm that's 1-800-flowers. Com sxm gift something unforgettable today.
- [01:00]
Karen Finerman
Hi, it's Melissa. Before we jump into today's show, I've got something exciting to share. On December 11, we are hosting a special edition of Fast Money Live, trading the holidays right here at the NASDAQ market site. You get to watch a live taping of Fast Money, meet and interact with the traders and of course, celebrate the holiday season with us. It's stocks and cheers in the heart of the city, Times Square in December. You will not want to miss this. Tickets are available now at CNBCEvents.com Bassmoney live in the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is FAST money. Here's what's on tap tonight, some big action and a couple of key asset classes ahead of the Fed decision. We break down what the moves in the dollar, gold and regional banks say about the markets and how they're set up for tomorrow's news and healthy gains, weight loss, drug makers jumping in today's session on new trial data and hopes for FDA approvals. The deals on the details on the moves and how to play the names right now. Plus, retail on sale. China stock rally rolls on and Warner Brothers recent run comes to a halt as investors wait for a Paramount deal. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio. Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Karen Feinerman, Courtney Garcia, Gai Adami and Dan Nathan. We'll get to the Fed meeting in just a moment, but we start off with a developing story on the big players involved in the U.S. tikTok framework deal. CNBC's Eamon Javors got the latest from D.C. eamon.
- [02:18]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, Melissa, that's right. We've got some new reporting from CNBC and also from the Wall Street Journal listing all the folks who are involved. And take a look in this new TikTok deal. We've got Andreessen Horowitz in the deal as well as Oracle and Silver Lake in the deal. It's an 80% stake for the US side, about 20% or just under that for the Chinese side. It's going to be an American dominated board of directors. And interestingly, according to the Wall Street Journal's reporting this afternoon, one of the board members will be appointed by the US government. So that makes the new TikTok entity sort of a hybrid of control of American entities plus the US government, plus in a much smaller percentage, the Chinese entity, which will still retain a share in terms of the algorithm. Wall Street Journal is reporting that TikTok US employees are going to have to re engineer the algorithm that underlies TikTok. That's the recommendation engine which has proven to be so powerful in the marketplace that's driving what millions of Americans see. And that was the national security issue here, is who gets to control that. It looks like that's going to land on the US Side of the fence, according to the details that we're getting now. And bear in mind, the President did sign an executive order earlier today extending the deadline for non enforcement of the new TikTok law until December 16th. So that clears the decks for some period of time to actually implement this deal. We're expecting President Trump and Xi Jinping to speak by telephone on Friday. And after that we're told we may get finalized deal information. But that's, that's what we know so far, Melissa.
- [03:56]
Karen Finerman
And this is the fourth time, I think, Eamon, that this deadline has in fact been extended. I mean, despite the national security concerns that surrounded TikTok existing in the United States.
- [04:08]
Eamon Javers
Yeah, I mean, Congress passed a law saying that this had to happen. And then the President simply decided to not enforce that law and no one sued him to enforce the congressional law. So ultimately we're just kind of in a holding pattern which is sort of legally weird. And in a bit of a gray area, the President just issued these executive orders extending it and extending it and now seems to have come up with a political deal to solve the question of how to keep TikTok alive in the United States. Interestingly, you know, people are going to look at the makeup of this new board and see what percentage of the board members are sort of known and highly visible Trump supporters? Right. TikTok is one of the most powerful media organizations in the country and controls what a lot of Americans see on a daily or hourly or minute by minute basis on their phones. I think there's going to be some political scrutiny of exactly who goes on this board and what their political affiliation is and how close to Trump they are.
- [05:10]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, it's interesting because it was always, you know, wondered what the algorithm controlled in terms of what the Chinese government would want the US population to see. And I think the question still remain. It's just another party potentially in the driver's seat here. Eamon. Thank you.
- [05:25]
Eamon Javers
You bet.
- [05:25]
Karen Finerman
Eamon Jabbers so I would presume this is a good sign in terms of US China trade talks. At least we've cleared this hurdle, which had been a hurdle for further talks.
- [05:37]
Guy Adami
I agree with that. That's a conversation we started the show with last night. And I agree that this does nothing to sort of take off the rails at all. I think it helps and I do think it's more positive for the Chinese market than the US Market, in my opinion. The Oracle take real quick to the extent that it even matters. You know, that stock went up 30% over after earnings last week. You guys, I know, talked about, I mean, that's not a natural thing, but we've seen similar, we saw Broadcom in December of last year with a similar move. These are not small companies. Question is, does this move the needle? Probably. But at 38 times now, next year's numbers, are you willing to pay up that much for Oracle? And the question, that's a question you have to ask because that open air deal, $300 billion over five years, that's great. You know, what's the earnings on that? That's still yet to be determined. So you're deep end of the pool here, I think, in Oracle.
- [06:25]
Dan Nathan
So it's interesting to me that the government chose not to make take a stake, it seems, or get a stake right, for free. I'm not really sure. I think, you know, we saw a couple of weeks ago the 15% to the US government for Nvidia, which I think that is no longer the case, is that, I mean, I'm not quite sure actually. But the intel thing where the government was putting in money, so that made that fairly straightforward. Then you have the, the U.S. steel deal where the government has, I guess a board position.
- [06:58]
Karen Finerman
I think that it would be dangerous, you'd be on dangerous ground for the government to take a stake in a social media company that has the power to influence. I think.
- [07:07]
Dan Nathan
As opposed to the president owns a social media company.
- [07:09]
Karen Finerman
Yes, that is clearly disclosed. As opposed to creating rules in which the government can actually own a stake. Because that's basically what he created the situation for him to just take a stake, which.
- [07:22]
Dan Nathan
Not him. The government. The government, yeah, the government, yeah. Yes. I don't know. Actually that doesn't seem wildly different to me, but I don't know. It is. It is interesting and some somewhat perplexing, but okay. I mean he's telegraphed for a long time this is what was going to happen. But I do think, to your original point, is it good for. It is. Is certainly a positive sign for US China relations that there will be something to discuss.
- [07:50]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, yeah. And I think one of my big takeaways from this is the fact that they're re engineering the algorithm. Like that really is the goldmine of TikTok is their algorithm seems to be much better than what you're getting on Metta or some of their competitors. So I think the question is, is re engineering going to make it as effective as it is right now? And so is TikTok going to be as valuable as people think it is right now? That I don't think we have the answer on, but I think that's something that we have to see. So I think there is a lot of excitement over things like Oracle and these other companies that are going to be taking a stake in it. But you have to see how it changes because social media can change on a dime. If it is not as good as people expect, they're going to go on to the next platform. So I think seeing how that algorithm changes is going to be a key in how you want to value this.
- [08:30]
Karen Finerman
I mean, that's what we were saying, Dan, a long time ago when this first surface that, that, you know, the ownership of TikTok would in fact be challenged. What is TikTok if it were not for the algorithm and the assumption that a US team can re engineer. If it were that easy to do, lots of other people would do it too. Unless they've got some sort of inside Track, which presumably US employees of TikTok might have.
- [08:53]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I mean, listen, there's a huge race for talent right now. We just saw what Meadow was just doing. They're paying hundreds of millions of dollars for AI talent. They're getting it from Apple, they're getting it from openeye, they're getting it from Google. I'm not sure, there's enough to go around right here. View is the right one here. If they kind of mess with this algo and it's not the same product, then you have a degraded sort of entity. The other thing I'd just say is that, listen, if this is about user data, if this is about national security, if this is about oversight of the algorithm and corporate governance, that's fine. Okay, like, like we get it. This is something that the Trump administration the first time around was really behind, right? So the fact now that they're giving this sweetheart deal to a private equity company, a VC company that lined up behind the president, Oracle, which obviously the chairman of that company is very close to the administration, this seems a bit cozy when I think about Oracle also. They have had this cloud business, they have had TikTok's business for the last three years, right. If go back and look at 2022, you know, Oracle couldn't get out of its own way even since then. They have low single digits, you know, market share of the cloud business. The fact that the stock opened up today the way it did and kind of came off, I think it's investors, you know, saying to themselves, there is no clarity about what this kind of means, what the ownership structure means. There's no clarity about how what they would have to build in addition to what they've already done, basically, basically is at odds with what they're building out for Stargate, open air and the like. So I think there's more questions and answers right now and I think that's one of the reasons why Oracle is probably not in that much better a position than it was, let's say, three trading days ago.
- [10:31]
Karen Finerman
And once upon a time we were talking about the potential closure of Tick Tock, we were saying, and people thought that this would be a good thing, that would be a good thing for the likes of a matter. And that sort of hasn't entered the, I mean, that's not part of this conversation anymore, amazingly.
- [10:45]
Dan Nathan
Right? No, it isn't. I mean, I think that those hopes faded a while ago. I think Trump's been on this for a while, so they would have been the beneficiary, but they still seem to be doing okay on their own in the current environment.
- [10:58]
Karen Finerman
Let's get back to the big market moves ahead of one of the most highly scrutinized Fed meetings of the year. The central bank widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, its first cut since December, amid continued pressure from President Trump. While major averages were a little Changed today. Gold settled at its 35th record of the year. The dollar traded near more than three year lows. And rate sensitive regional banks got hit hard. Bank First Synchrony Financial, Huntington Bank Shares, Key Corp. Among the worst performers in the group. But with broader markets near all time highs. What do these moves tell us? What do you think is telegraphing?
- [11:33]
Guy Adami
Well, it's the gold market's telling something. I believe I said that for a while now. That's been wrong to say that for a while because the equity, the S and P made a new all time high today. So clearly there's some disconnect. But the fact that gold goes up seemingly in every environment we can think of is somewhat problematic. I think if you look at it long term, it's trying to tell a story. And the fact that the dollar has had no bounce whatsoever outside of maybe a three or four day period a couple of weeks ago should also be concerning now. People will say a weaker dollar supportive of equities. I agree with that to a point. You hit that diminishing marginal returns and I think we're pretty close. The pound feels like it's going to $125. Yen feels like it's going to breach 140. And I think the equity market will wake up and say, you know what, maybe it's not such a good thing.
- [12:17]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, there are big moves in the regional banks and you think that they'd be a beneficiary of a better economic environment.
- [12:24]
Dan Nathan
Yes. Although I guess, I mean if you look at how far they've run since, you know, Liberation Day, they're up maybe 40%, which is huge. So I don't know, some of it is maybe just giving that back. But I was surprised how hard they got hit today.
- [12:39]
Karen Finerman
Yeah.
- [12:40]
Melissa Lee
And I think one of the question too is what's going to happen with the longer term side of the curve. Because realistically the Fed is cutting into a really strong economy and what that can do is spur a lot of increased activity in the markets. Increased activity in the economy that could increase longer term inflation. Like you can get this melt up. And historically speaking when the Fed cuts in a strengthening economy, the markets are higher 12 months later. But so might be the longer end of the curve which also can affect like mortgage rates. So you actually might see less mortgage demand, those rates go higher and that actually could be part of the story.
- [13:10]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, that was one of the points. Julian Emanuel made this today on the exchange. 12 months out, 12 months out, markets are higher.
- [13:16]
Guy Adami
Were you hosting that show?
- [13:17]
Karen Finerman
I was With Santoli.
- [13:19]
Guy Adami
Yeah, that's great.
- [13:20]
Scott Wapner
I was.
- [13:22]
Guy Adami
I was watching Squawk Box this morning and Treasury Secretary Benson was asked that question by Becky Quick about was September of last year the Fed cut rates, the 10 year yield went higher. What are your thoughts? He said it was different this last year. We're in a much different environment. We will see. But I share the same concerns that, you know, people getting ahead of themselves in terms of rates continuing to go down. I think I still am one of the few people think 10 year yields are going higher from here.
- [13:46]
Karen Finerman
Yeah. What do you think, Dan?
- [13:49]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, we haven't even mentioned the Lisa Cook situation. We haven't mentioned that this is a, literally a case that is going in front of the Supreme Court that might actually change the course of the makeup of the governors tomorrow at the meeting. I mean that's just insane to think about. And so you know, listen, we got this 4% in the 10 year. We've seen yields kind of run ahead a little bit of a very telegraphed 25 basis point point cut here. I'm kind of in guys camp here. I mean like, and I'm not sure I agree with Courtney that the Fed is cutting into a strong economy. It would just kind of be at odds with what we've just seen in the labor market over the last couple of months and the revisions back to June, you know, you tell me there's strong retail sales, back to school, this and that, whatever. I'm like, well that's what Americans do. We buy crap, you know. And so at the end of the day, if the labor market is weakening, you're going to see other parts of the economy weakening. And then it comes back to why the Fed is cutting right now. And if they cut, do we see inflation pick back up? So at the end of the day, I think it's about as clear as mud. I think that we were going to be talking about this Lisa Cook and Moran situation tomorrow, especially if you have a Supreme Court rule that this person, this governor cannot vote at this meeting tomorrow. I mean it's just insane. We're within 24 hours. I saw the bug up there. The they're 20 hours in counting down.
- [15:08]
Karen Finerman
Our next guest warns the Fed may disappoint Wall street when that meeting happens in about 20 hours or so. So Badger Japa is ahead of US rates for associates. General, great to have you with us. There does seem to be a lot of expectation built into at least 75 basis points through the end of the year. So is that where the disappointment May lie.
- [15:25]
Subhadra Jafa
Yeah, it's not just the 75 basis points up to the end of the year. You're also looking at a total of six cuts by the end of next year. And the terminal Fed funds rate is actually lower. The market's pricing a lower rate than what the, that the Fed has for its terminal fed funds rate. So it's, it's a pretty dramatic pace of cuts between now and the end of next year.
- [15:47]
Dan Nathan
So what do you think we'll hear from Powell? He was surprisingly dovish the last time we heard from him. What are you expecting?
- [15:54]
Subhadra Jafa
He did surprise me at the Jackson Hole meeting because he's been kind of leaning towards no cuts and then he cuts kind of pivoted very quickly to cutting at the September meeting. I think that he might sound a bit dovish, but I don't think he's going to commit to an October rate cut. To me it feels like it's still going to be meeting by meeting. I think you guys made some very, very interesting points. My concern is that if the Fed cuts rates aggressively, that you might actually see the long end yields rise. You know, inflation expectations start to rise. That's not a good thing. So I think that they're still going to be very measured. Take it meeting by meeting.
- [16:25]
Guy Adami
What is your sense about it feels to me, and maybe I'm looking at it differently, there's been this reacceleration of some of the inflation metrics that we look at. They're not trending in the right direction, let's put it that way. But Fed made it clear that it's the employment picture they're focused on. I mean if this inflation continues to sort of reaccelerate, it's a bit of a problem here. And I think that's again one of the reasons rates go higher from here.
- [16:47]
Subhadra Jafa
Yeah, I mean, because if you look at the last couple of CPI prints, the gains have been kind of broad based. It's not one category the other. We thought that it's going to be mostly goods inflation. It's not. It's a lot of other categories that are not necessarily directly linked to tariffs. Yes, the feed through from tariffs has been somewhat muted, but it's very possible that you see that starting to come down the pike in the numbers that are, that are to come for the remainder of the year. So it's tough. I think that the Fed is going to be very, very measured given the fact that they just don't know how inflation is going to pan out.
- [17:19]
Karen Finerman
So in terms of your outlook for Rates, what, where do they stand right now and do you think that they could swing dramatically based on tomorrow's meeting? I'm just wondering how critical tomorrow you think is given the setup going in.
- [17:32]
Subhadra Jafa
So it's interesting that you'd asked that question and we looked at what happened to 10 year yields on Fed meeting dates for the last several meetings. And what you notice is that 10 yields tend to rally. But in July you saw the opposite. You actually saw 10 yields rise. So it's very possible that if we given the fact that 10 years are close to 4%, which is the lower end of the recent range, the front end, the two years very effectively priced in for an aggressive policy back, if the Fed disappoints, if they don't sound as dovish as what the market expects, there's a chance that you could see yields rise.
- [18:07]
Melissa Lee
Now how do we view this from the stock market market side?
- [18:10]
Jim Cramer
Right.
- [18:10]
Melissa Lee
I think they are optimistic that we're going to see these rate cuts coming down. I mean most definitively this week, but probably a couple more this year. But coming into this year they were expecting what like six cuts that didn't happen. The markets have done really well. So the question is, let's say they aren't as they don't cut as much as we're expecting. Is that going to be a bad thing for the markets or are they set up well regardless.
- [18:30]
Subhadra Jafa
So that's a tough one because if you look at financial conditions, broadly speaking, not just equities, but if you look at the weakness of the dollar credit spreads, we're really, the market's looking at very, very easy financial conditions. So part of that easing of financial conditions is because the market is accounting for a very, very easy policy path. There's also the calculus on what's going to happen next year with the composition of the committee. Is the committee going to be much more dovish? All of that kind of factors into, into risky assets in general. So you could see an unwind of that if there's, if there's a sense that the Fed is not willing to act as aggressively as the market is pricing it.
- [19:10]
Karen Finerman
And I know you're squarely focused on rates, but still what does the move in the dollar, the move in gold, how does that educate your view on rates?
- [19:18]
Subhadra Jafa
You know, the dichotomy that you point out guy about, you know, the strengthening of sort of the rise in gold versus the dollar not doing as much is, is telling. So your flight to safety asset is now gold. It's not the dollar, it's not really any other asset in the U.S. yes, you're seeing a run up in equities law that has to do with, with the, with the dollar weakening. The question becomes what happens from here on? And gold seems to be that safe haven asset subject.
- [19:48]
Karen Finerman
Great to talk to you. Thank you so much. Subhadra Jaffa it was interesting because Invesco actually advised clients to go maximum, maximum short the dollar. So they're anticipating even more dollar weakness from here. This was just this week, which is.
- [20:01]
Guy Adami
You know, that's a telling sign. I mean given the weakness and given again outside of a couple of days, there's been no meaningful bounce in the dollar. I happen to agree with them but again, I don't know, I think that's the right trade in terms of currencies. I think staying long, gold is the right trade. But what is that really telling you in terms of the risk appetite out there and what does it mean for the equity market? And I don't think it's painting as rosy a picture as an all time high in the S and P seems to think it is.
- [20:24]
Karen Finerman
Yeah. What do you think, Court?
- [20:26]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, and I think if the dollar weakens, one thing that's been performing really well this year is international. Right. When you're looking at developed markets or emerging markets, they're both up over 20% this year. And the dollar weakening is a big part of that. And actually I think that story still has room to run. So if the dollar does continue to weaken, I actually think that's a good way to look at it and play it.
- [20:44]
Dan Nathan
I think it's a little more gasoline. Right. Which ultimately seems problematic. But I don't know what happens between here and there. I don't think this is the point where it gets so, so problematic yet.
- [20:54]
Karen Finerman
Yeah. Dan.
- [20:57]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I just think that, you know, we're in a situation here where there's a big disconnect or at least apparently a disconnect between what's going on in the economy or at least the uncertainty with the economy and the certainty that exists in the equity market and that, you know, that spread is not a great place to be be. And I just heard, I can't remember maybe guys said that that weak dollar and yields coming down, I mean that is supportive for equity valuations and it could be a tailwind for earnings growth and the like. But again that labor market is not going to turn on a dime and it just seems like it's really been weakening over the course of the last year and I don't think all this investment, all this CapEx and AI is going to do a whole heck of a lot of positive things for that labor market. So again, I think that the Fed tomorrow interest rate cuts, who knows what the pace is going to be. It could be a sell the news in equity markets coming up, new data.
- [21:46]
Karen Finerman
Helping Novo Nordisk to a second day of gains today. What we know about its new weight loss drug option and how it could boost the stock. That's next. Plus a retail route. Many names in the group in the red. Despite strong sales data, the names leading to losses and the read they give on the consumer don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back into.
- [22:04]
Dan Nathan
The.
- [22:07]
Guy Adami
This is.
- [22:07]
Scott Wapner
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- [23:19]
Karen Finerman
Whenever I need.
- [23:20]
Jim Cramer
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Karen Finerman
To two dozen roses.
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Jim Cramer
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- [23:50]
Karen Finerman
Welcome back to Fast Money. Novo Nordisk jumping almost 3% after presenting positive data on its amylin obesity drug, potentially setting up the next gen shot as an alternative for patients who struggle to tolerate existing GLP1 treatments. For more on this, let's get to Angelica Peebles. Angelica hey Melissa.
- [24:07]
Jim Cramer
Well, Novo Nordisk that its amylin Targeting shot Cagrelantide helped people lose about 12% of their body weight. And that's not the most impressive weight loss we've ever seen.
- [24:16]
Dan Nathan
But.
- [24:16]
Jim Cramer
But the main attraction for amylin drugs is that they might come with fewer side effects than GLP1. So Novo is touting the tolerability, saying that just 1% of people in the trial stopped taking the drug because of nausea. Mizuho's Jared Holtz telling me that the results are good enough to get people's attention. Novo is planning to start a phase three trial dedicated to cagralantide later this year. And remember that Novo is also testing this drug in combination with Semaglutide. That's of course, the main ingredient of Ozempic and Wegovy. And really, anything that Novo can do right now to show that it's making progress on its pipeline is going to help its positioning, especially with Lilly making a lot of noise about its obesity pill and its triple acting shot red at True Tide, which Lilly expects the first results from by the end of this year. So, of course, always much more to watch in this space.
- [25:00]
Karen Finerman
Melissa and Angelica, you got a sneak peek at the manufacturing facility and also you spoke to CEO David Ricks. What did he say about this notion of a fast track approval for its oral obesity drug, which analysts on the street today specifically were getting very excited about?
- [25:20]
Jim Cramer
Yeah, well, I asked them specifically about this new voucher that the FDA has been touting where you can basically get a one to two month review if you're, you know, if your drug is aligning with U.S. health priorities. It could be things like treating a big public health concern, which you could make the argument that obesity is as well as reshoring US Manufacturing, which again, Lilly has been talking a lot about. And I asked Avery specifically, are you applying for one of these vouchers? And he said there's no news at this time. They can't make any announcements. They are, of course, exploring all options to get this pill on the market as quickly as possible. They're working on that submission right now. But again, no news to share.
- [25:58]
Karen Finerman
All right, Angelica, thanks. Angelica Peebles. That did not stop Goldman Sachs from putting out a note saying that, you know, early approval between one and two months of Oracle for Glipron, which is the oral obesity pill, could yield about $1 billion in revenue early on.
- [26:13]
Guy Adami
Yeah, and the fact that Jared Holtz, who comes on the show often, who's been negative and right about Novo, said this gets people's attention. That's interesting. Karen. I Had a conversation last night. We thought, both of us, that Novo on yesterday's news should have been higher and maybe now you're starting to see some momentum. I'll say this, this new CEO, which is the first non Dutch CEO I think since 1923, he seems to be, he seems to get it and he's making the right decisions and the tough decisions. So maybe for the first time in a while, Novo's worth a look here on the long side.
- [26:44]
Karen Finerman
Yeah. Yesterday's use being the higher dose of Wegovy, yielding two pretty good weight loss drugs as opposed, you know, when you stack it up against Lilly's drug. There was also a Redburn upgrade of Novo from a cell. So from the bottom ranking which really may underscore sort of the, the turn in thinking about Novo.
- [27:02]
Dan Nathan
Well, right. And if you look at how relatively cheap it is. Right. That that differential is enormous. There was some other good news on Cardiac was that yesterday it was a label extension.
- [27:12]
Karen Finerman
Yeah.
- [27:13]
Dan Nathan
But just how cheap it is and now. So they maybe have a few different potential shots on goal. I mean it doesn't sound like a lot. This not, you know, better tolerated. It's a huge deal. Right. We looked at some of those other, those other tests where 30, 35% of the people were dropping out. This is 1%.
- [27:30]
Karen Finerman
Yeah.
- [27:30]
Dan Nathan
That actually is a big deal. So I don't know, I like Novo here. I'm actually sort of rethinking my relative Lilly Novo position size.
- [27:39]
Karen Finerman
What do you think?
- [27:39]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I agree. It was the people dropping out from the less side effects. That's absolutely what stuck out to me. Which yeah, people don't seem to get as excited about that. But I don't know.
- [27:47]
Jim Cramer
I.
- [27:47]
Melissa Lee
Wouldn't you rather take like a little less or slower weight loss with less side effects? One would think so. I don't think this has to be a one company wins all. So even if like Lilly is going to have the more effective product, I think Novo still has a place in the game and they're just so much cheaper compared to themselves and compared to Lilly. So I think it's absolutely worth a look here.
- [28:05]
Karen Finerman
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [28:09]
Scott Wapner
Strong sales but weak stocks. Why the latest retail data isn't enough to prop up that group and the names getting hit the hardest. Plus the future of Fannie and Freddie, what the government sponsored entities need to do if they're going to go public and how it all impacts the housing market. You're watching fast money live from the NASDAQ Market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. And now a next level moment from ATT Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network a CNBC exclusive. Scott Wapner with Jeffrey Gundlock Live from DoubleLine HQ. First reaction to the Fed decision, plus market response and economic outlook. Closing bell tomorrow, 3 Eastern and streaming on CNBC. Plus.
- [29:28]
Karen Finerman
Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got a news alert on a number of major tech investments in the uk. Steve Kovac's got the details. Steve.
- [29:35]
Steve Kovac
Hey there, Melissa. Yeah, we've got more tech investments announced in the UK ahead of President Trump's state visit. That's happening tomorrow. He actually just landed in the UK moments ago. Now just in Nvidia says it is investing £11 billion, that's about $15 billion in US dollars, and partnering with UK cloud provider N Scale and Core Weave. It plans to bring 120,000 Blackwell GPU chips to the United Kingdom. And CEO Jensen Huang is expected to be in the UK tomorrow, which are Christina Parts and Evil reported last week. Now let's move over to OpenAI, also announcing a new deal in the UK bringing Stargate to the United Kingdom to build AI data centers in the country and also partnering with with N Scale to make that one happen. Now, OpenAI says it's going to explore buying up to 8,000 GPUs and may buy up to 31,000 GPUs over time. Now, those commitments from OpenAI, they're a bit vague and fuzzy, not as concrete as what Microsoft announced a couple of hours ago. Now, to recap that Microsoft announcement, President Brad Smith told us today the company is investing about US$30 billion in the United Kingdom over the next four years. That's more than the other companies I just mentioned combined. And he also said it's a clear commitment and that Microsoft is good for every cent. Now, Microsoft is also partnering with that UK Cloud Provider N scale, though this is separate from OpenAI's Stargate UK announcement. And Microsoft will pay N Scale to build out all the infrastructure, including about 23,000 Nvidia GPUs. About half of Microsoft's money is is going to go to all that artificial intelligence capex, while the rest will go to a bunch of other AI and tech projects like research, software sales and gaming. And Microsoft also tells us CEO Satya Nadella will be in the United Kingdom tomorrow. By the way, he's not the only executive there. There are so many other reports about executives who have either been invited to this UK visit or are expected to show up. That includes Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone, that Larry Fink of BlackRock, Apple CEO Tim Cook, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, all potentially there tomorrow as well. Melissa?
- [31:44]
Karen Finerman
Steve, do you have any sense of whether or not this is money that would have all would have otherwise been spent anyway?
- [31:50]
Steve Kovac
That was my first question to Microsoft and actually Brad Smith kind of preempted that it is new money. This is new commitment not previously announced, planned spend, at least on Microsoft side, unclear about OpenAI and Nvidia.
- [32:04]
Karen Finerman
Steve, thanks. Steve Kovac. Interesting. Trump is able to line up all these deals to announce.
- [32:10]
Dan Nathan
Yes. Here's a gift to you. Uk, right? Right. Yeah. These are American companies that are really.
- [32:17]
Karen Finerman
You know, going to step up.
- [32:19]
Dan Nathan
Right. With big dollars.
- [32:21]
Guy Adami
Absolutely. And it's been going full blast since he took over in January. Right. But let's just, you know, in terms of Nvidia and I can't speak to Ionq, but throw up a chart and the CEO was out, I think, yesterday saying that their GPUs will surpass Nvidia's in 2027. And I think he said Blackwell, and I'm quoting here is a joke now, again, I can't speak to the veracity of that. I can see what the stock has done over the last couple of weeks, but it speaks to competition in the space. Whether you believe it or not, it's coming. And you know, when you have 75, 76% margins and competition comes margins, those margins can go away very quickly, which to me is still the bear case for Nvidia.
- [32:58]
Karen Finerman
Dan, it appears the spend is alive and well in AI.
- [33:04]
Courtney Garcia
Is it, Mel? I mean, like they just announced 30 billion over four years. They had previously guided the 90 billion back in the summer. So if you kind of piece that out, if they're doing half of that 30 billion, that's 15. You piece that over. It's a rounding error. I mean, like, so I just think there's a lot of like, you know, political theatrics that's going on. Right. Here we haven't closed a UK trade deal so look at all this stuff that's going on. We just spent some time talking about the TikTok deal. We're trying to get a trade deal done with China. We talked about a UK deal months ago. We haven't seen any clarity on that regard. So it seems like there's a lot of like shell games going on here and again all these companies we're going to make these investments. You know last year when Microsoft guided, I think the number was 80 billion, they said half of it was going to be abroad. So again I look at these numbers I don't think they're particularly eye popping, you know great for Nvidia. They're going to sell you know tens of thousands of their GPUs. They better hope Blackwell is not a joke.
- [34:01]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I do think it's showing, I mean this increased capex is showing that they are optimistic about the return on that investment and I think Microsoft is one of the few. We actually are seeing the AI like revenue coming in as outpacing the growth of the CapEx and so I think the idea they're willing to spend more is just showing that the demand is going to be there. These are getting more and more expensive and this is where I think you want to think of who else is going to benefit like for example the energy space which is just like there's not enough that to go around. Whether that's here or in the UK where they're building some of these out. You're going to want to look at not just these players but kind of that outsource and I think that's going to be the way to play this.
- [34:35]
Karen Finerman
Coming up, a retail head scratcher. Why strong sales aren't boosting some big consumer consumer stocks. And the latest read on spending power ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision. Fast money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks pulling back a bit just up from record highs as investors await tomorrow's big Fed decision. The Dow dropping 125 points. The S and P Nasdaq both down about a tenth of a percent. China stocks jumping once again. The K Web, FXI, MSC, MCHI, ETFs all higher. Big moves in BABA, JD Baidu help leading the charge. And shares of GE Aerospace that's up 2% today and hitting a record surpassing the previous all time high hit back in August of 2000. Shares are up about 76% this year. Wow.
- [35:27]
Guy Adami
If hashtag smooth were amongst us he would be talking about this because he has talked about it and despite the movement you can actually still make a case, relatively decent case that it's still not over in terms of valuation and in terms of their earnings growth and good for them they figured it out. But I'd stay long the stock melbs.
- [35:46]
Karen Finerman
Meantime retail sales rising more than expected in August up 6.10of a percent versus estimates of just 310 of a percent. Lower fuel costs, tax free holiday sales and tariff pull forward all contributing to gains. But many retail stocks were down despite this data. Names like Gap, Victoria's Secret, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie among the biggest losers today. So why the disconnect here Karen, you're talking about.
- [36:08]
Dan Nathan
I don't know why they some of them seem to rally a little bit at the end of the day but Gap really didn't have a great day at all. They've had a nice run but still, you know the thing that's most concerning about are people still employed? Do they have money to spend even with the tiny tick up? I do think that is still the case. So I'm a little bit perplexed. I think this, I think generally they're in decent shape and they're not expensive. Yeah, yeah.
- [36:32]
Karen Finerman
I mean in a different environment you could make the case that the back to school season was very strong is usually an indicator of a strong Halloween, a strong ho ho ho holiday season also. And so there should be some optimism built in.
- [36:45]
Dan Nathan
Yes, I thought, I thought Abercrombie would talk. I think they had a good quarter. I think that TJX had it. So whether you're tjx which we know is a somewhat of a different animal, others had good quarters as well. We had Ulta that had a very good quarter. Nearly talk down their next quarter but.
- [37:02]
Melissa Lee
Nobody believed and I think there is concern about what's happening in the labor market and I think people are worried that that's softening. When you look at how the consumer is actually holding up right now and especially when you're looking at the banks reporting on the consumer, they're still relatively in good shape. Like even when you're looking at the amount of debt that they have, it's actually lower than it is compared to income levels than it was pre pandemic. Like people are generally in okay shape. We don't have like overly high credit card balances, the labor market. I think the question is is some of that just tariff induced as well? So I think if the consumer is in good shape that probably will mean you're going to continue to see that consumer spending. So yeah, I don't know what the move is today, but I think this is something that you want to continue to see. Probably looks good moving forward here.
- [37:42]
Karen Finerman
Dan, you said it earlier, Americans do what Americans do and that is buy a lot of crap. But I'm guessing that doesn't make you more optimistic about retail.
- [37:51]
Courtney Garcia
Well, listen, we just talked about the tariff situation. I mean, might have we seen a bit of a pull forward there, you know, and here's a, here's a little curveball here. So these Apple iPhones are going on sale on Friday. So this new slate and there's not a huge expectation for these devices but the higher end devices they're going for, there's a price increase there. So it'll be interesting to see, you know, we saw this pull forward for iPhones, you know, through the Q2, that sort of thing. It'll be interesting to see what the lead times are on these phones and if, you know, if consumers are pushing off some of these big purchases. Because that is something we definitely saw over the last couple of months in retail at least the commentary we heard from a lot of retailers.
- [38:33]
Karen Finerman
And we do have another reminder. Speaking of spending Fast Money Live, it's coming back. A special trading the Holidays Live event happening here at the NASDAQ on December 11th. Fans are already sending their most burning market question about the markets in 2026 for the traders, including which sector could have the most alpha in the new year, how to reduce risk of a concentrated position and the potential importance of a small cap position in your portfolio. Our traders will tackle all of those and much more. So don't forget, get your tickets for the next fast money live December 11th. Scan the QR code on your screen, head to CNBC events.com fastmoney to trade the holidays with us. Anyone want to give our viewers a sneak peek of your thinking on these?
- [39:13]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I'll give you a sneak peek. We had some of our crack staff from EC come to the nasdaq. They were at the NASDAQ here today and they wanted to put me in a red sweater because ho ho, ho. And mistletoe. Yeah, sure, but it was large. That's a problem. I mean that was not. I was not fitting in that sucker.
- [39:30]
Karen Finerman
A large does not fit you.
- [39:31]
Guy Adami
No. Come on, Melms. I'm a large person. So at the holiday event on December 11th, I will be in a the extra large, if not double XL sweater for the festive occasion because you don't want to see me in a narrow sweater.
- [39:45]
Karen Finerman
It's attractive narrow sweater.
- [39:47]
Dan Nathan
Did that answer all their burning?
- [39:49]
Karen Finerman
Probably not, surely.
- [39:50]
Dan Nathan
I think. What else you got?
- [39:53]
Karen Finerman
All right, coming up, a shake up in the housing market. Why one retail real estate expert sees rates heading higher even if the Fed cuts tomorrow and his take on a privatization of Fannie and Freddie Mac. All that when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. While home buyers may be focused on the direction of mortgage rates around tomorrow's Fed decision, builders are keyed in to what happens with Fannie and Freddie Mac. CNBC's Diana Olek sat down with the CEO of Commercial Real estate company Walker and Dunlop who had some deep concerns about the potential privatization of the gse. For more, let's get to Diana with this week's Property Play. Diana? Well, Melissa, Willie Walker told me he's concerned that FHFA director Bill Pulte has said he would take Fannie and Freddie private but keep them in conservatorship, meaning he'd still be running both boards.
- [40:48]
Scott Wapner
I think if they want to get them private, they need to get them private and allow for the government to sell down its shareholdings over time. That would require them to set them up in a structure that gets gives confidence to investors that it's not just a quick hit for the US Government and then the government's going to go away. So that requires for the guarantee to stay in place in perpetuity.
- [41:07]
Karen Finerman
Walker said he will be at treasury this week giving them his ideas on all of this.
- [41:12]
Dan Nathan
But he has another big concern.
- [41:15]
Scott Wapner
It was very publicly reported that there's some friction between Treasury Secretary Bessant and FHFA director.
- [41:21]
Karen Finerman
I think it was called a gonna.
- [41:22]
Melissa Lee
Punch you in the face and I'm.
- [41:23]
Karen Finerman
Not gonna use the F word.
- [41:25]
Scott Wapner
So the question there would be who takes the lead? Who's got the pen that says this is the plan of action for Fannie and Freddie?
- [41:33]
Karen Finerman
Treasury Secretary Bessant suggested jokingly on CNBC.
- [41:36]
Dan Nathan
This morning that he won that fight.
- [41:38]
Karen Finerman
Now there's also a lot more from.
- [41:40]
Dan Nathan
Walker on this in the full podcast.
- [41:42]
Karen Finerman
Including his thoughts that interest rates might actually go higher tomorrow after the potential Fed rate cut. You can check that out in the Property Play newsletter. Yes, there is yet another QR code.
- [41:51]
Dan Nathan
Up there or go to.comproperty play. And Mel, one more thing.
- [41:55]
Karen Finerman
30 year fixed rate dropped to the lowest in three years this afternoon, 6.13%. So it dropped ahead of the Fed meeting. Ahead of the Fed.
- [42:05]
Dan Nathan
But the expectation is that after a.
- [42:08]
Karen Finerman
Potential cut it will move higher, that.
- [42:10]
Dan Nathan
There would be a sell off A lot of people telling me that that's what we saw last year actually when they last cut.
- [42:15]
Karen Finerman
Right. Diana. Thanks. Dana Olek. So it gets to that whole idea of positioning and how we are positioned into the meeting and whether or not there will be some sort of a sell off of whatever has moved higher.
- [42:25]
Dan Nathan
Well, I think I could see the 10 year yields going higher. That makes sense to me also what you're talking about with the dollar. Right. And but I could also see to me it's really about what does Powell say? What is he dovish or hawkish?
- [42:42]
Guy Adami
Look at the xhp ran up into the Fed rate cut last September. Think it made an all time high in early October, then spent the rest of the year into this year going lower. We've had a subsequent run up in the xhp. We have not reached that prior high. There's a very good chance this tops out in the same way it did last year right around this rate cut. So be aware that I think people are positioning for it. But it might be a sell the news event as Karen and Dan probably said earlier.
- [43:09]
Karen Finerman
All right, coming up, Warner Brothers Discovery deep in the red after a recent run up on on homes for a Paramount bid. Why one analyst isn't so hot on another media merger. That's next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer camp. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of CrowdStrike. Catch the full interview top of the hour on Mad Money. Meantime, more Fast Money into welcome back to Fast Money Shares. A Warner Brothers discovery falling over 6% today. TD Cowan downgrading the stock after its huge run up in the last week following reports Paramount Skydance was gearing up to make a bid. Analysts saying the stock could quickly round trip back to 11 or 12 if the bid does not materialize. It's funny, the name of the note, the title of the note was leave it to the risk arbs. And so immediately I thought of Karen Feiderman who used to be a risk arbitrageur.
- [44:00]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, well once a risk arb, always a risk. So I bought some calls and I sold them and lost some money. I'm like, you know David Faber has done great reporting on this and was it yesterday all the days blended together that or was it today, this morning where he said it's going to take a little bit longer and arbs hate take a little bit longer because when things are open ended for a while stuff happens.
- [44:21]
Karen Finerman
Right.
- [44:22]
Dan Nathan
We've seen that. So it's right for it to be down. It's an excellent call by the analyst. This is the year's five bucks of our fluff in it right now. Maybe it'll be worth a lot more. That absolutely could happen. But it also could happen that no deal materializes.
- [44:38]
Guy Adami
And that's the beauty. Where'd you start? Your illustrious dlj, I believe.
- [44:41]
Dan Nathan
No.
- [44:42]
Guy Adami
Kidder Peabody for the.
- [44:43]
Dan Nathan
For the Bellsberg family, the Canadian.
- [44:46]
Guy Adami
It's old school.
- [44:47]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, old school. Then dlj.
- [44:48]
Guy Adami
See that I knew.
- [44:50]
Karen Finerman
Send.
- [44:50]
Guy Adami
Her bio will be on her trading.
- [44:51]
Karen Finerman
Card on December 11, which is the fastest money live.
- [44:54]
Guy Adami
So I want to say. So I think is the high end of this thing, right? Wbd who knows, Right.
- [45:00]
Dan Nathan
If you get into a bidding war. But that would be 24. Yes. Sorry to interrupt. One thing I want to add, though, is a lot of debt here. So every new dollar of money that they put into a deal is $2 into the equity. Right. There's a lot of bang for your buck for the equity.
- [45:15]
Guy Adami
And I think that's what, that's the bet. But, you know, you get delays and that 18 and a quarter where it closed at, but could be 15 in a couple of days. So I think you got to be, if you want to play this for 24, you got to be willing to risk 14 on the down or options or trade.
- [45:30]
Dan Nathan
They're trading thousands.
- [45:31]
Karen Finerman
It is interesting to think about who might step in. I mean, the players are, you know, from media to tech companies now, like, the sky's the limit under this new administration. Relatively new.
- [45:42]
Subhadra Jafa
Yeah.
- [45:42]
Melissa Lee
And so, I mean, clearly, maybe if this deal doesn't happen, I think the question is, is there going to be at least a deal at some point? But when you look at this is up almost 50% in the last five days. I think at what point, like, is that risk reward still worth it? And I think that's really the question, especially if there's not a deal that's definitively in sight. So, yeah, I'd probably stay on the sidelines for now.
- [46:00]
Karen Finerman
Up next, final trades, final trade time. Dan.
- [46:12]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, Oracle. Given last week's pop and the lack of clarity around this deal, I would not be a buyer of Oracle right here.
- [46:18]
Karen Finerman
Karen.
- [46:18]
Dan Nathan
That's shocking from Dan, isn't it? Absolute shocker there. Novo Nordisk was in the final trade yesterday, and I like it again today, even though it's a little bit higher. Nova.
- [46:26]
Melissa Lee
Courtney, we talked a lot about international, especially if the dollar's weakening. I think you want to look at your developed markets here.
- [46:33]
Guy Adami
My email is blowing up. Is that a term on what they love? Melissa Lee in glasses I'm just telling you should just go with it. Know what else I love?
- [46:41]
Karen Finerman
Love Melms Valero all right, thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
- [46:49]
Jim Cramer
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer A CNBC exclusive.
- [47:30]
Scott Wapner
Scott Wapner with Jeffrey Gundloch Live from DoubleLine HQ. First reaction to the Fed decision plus market response and economic outlook closing bell tomorrow, 3 Eastern and streaming on CNBC plus.