
Listen to our traders take you behind the money...how to play the volatility...pops and drops and the movers you missed. Fast Money Disclaimer
Loading summary
Brian Sullivan
Want to quickly create and execute trading strategies to help keep up with the markets. With Fidelity Trading Dashboard, you can access live data, advanced charting, portfolio insights and automated alerts all on one screen. We streamlined the trading experience so you can build and place trades better. Your Fidelity Trading Dashboard is ready now. For free, visit fidelity.com tradingdashboard Investing involves.
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
Risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC member NYSE, SIPC.
Michael Kintopoulos
And now a next level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment.
Brian Sullivan
Of pillows and they need to be.
Michael Kintopoulos
There in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding.
Brian Sullivan
And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with.
Michael Kintopoulos
Any issues with ease so the pillows.
Brian Sullivan
Will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you.
Michael Kintopoulos
AT&T5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere.
Dan Nathan
Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
Melissa Lee
Hi, it's Melissa. Before we jump into today's show, I've got something exciting to share. On December 11, we are hosting a special edition of Fast Money Live trading the holidays right here at the NASDAQ market site. You get to watch a live taping of Fast Money, meet and interact with the traders and of course, celebrate the holiday season with us. It's stocks and cheers in the heart of the city, Times Square in December.
Brian Sullivan
You will not want to miss this.
Melissa Lee
Tickets are available now@cnbc events.com fastmoney.
Brian Sullivan
Live from the NASDAQ market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap, the Fed in focus, Jerome Powell & Co. Delivering on a rate cut. Stocks mostly shrugging it off, but one group had a nice pop. We're going to dissect what may be in store for the rest of the year. Lilly's next move. They want to sell you an obesity pill. Well, investors buy in. Plus the retail rally Lyft scoring a big win in the rideshare battle and why. The chartmaster says it is time right now to sell maybe the biggest China name of all. Hi everybody. I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa Lee tonight. Coming to you live from then a studio B at the Nasdaq and on your desk tonight, Mr. Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Steve Grasso. How you doing Tim? And Michael Kopoulos. He is the deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. Also have Carter Worth coming up in just a minute. Tim looks a little underdressed in that picture, huh?
Steve Liesman
How so?
Brian Sullivan
We should. Well, you got, I mean, no, you.
Tim Seymour
Guys are, you guys are just, Tim.
Brian Sullivan
And I are the only ones with their eyes on I don't know what.
Dan Nathan
This kick off the rails.
Tim Seymour
Now tonight.
Brian Sullivan
All right, Sandy Cannell, let's, let's make he wants blood pressure down. All right. Let us start with where else the Fed and stocks. The Dow making a new high. Small caps got a little bit bigger. The NASDAQ though did not play a starring role here on Broadway as some tech stocks pulled back in bonds. Don't get your hopes up that mortgage rates are going to come crashing down anytime soon. A 10 year yield ending pretty much where it began. The day oil and gold both lower as the US Dollar actually did something it hasn't done a lot of and actually went higher against most major currencies. All this of course, after the Federal Reserve did what pretty much everybody expected, cut its overnight lending rate by 1/4 of 1%. Question of course now is what now? Newly appointed Governor Stephen Myron, the only board member voting for a full 1/2 percentage point cut. Let's get now some of the headlines of the man who is right there in the room where it happened, Steve Liesman with more.
Steve Liesman
Steve, thanks, Brian, and thanks for not breaking into song. The Fed gave the market almost exactly what it wanted, a 25 basis point rate cut and a forecast for two more. But it also introduced some risk into the outlook. There was an expected dovish descent for a 50 basis point cut by Fed Governor Stephen Meyer, but also widespread disagreement on the committee over the right path for rates.
Brian Sullivan
Ordinarily, when the labor market is weak, inflation is low and when the labor market is really strong, that's when you be careful about inflation.
Tim Seymour
So we have a situation where we.
Richard Fisher
Have two sided risk and that means there's no risk free path.
Brian Sullivan
And so it's quite a different difficult situation for policymakers. And it's not at all surprising to me that you have a range of.
Steve Liesman
Views, a huge range of views. In fact, one person on the committee in their forecast did not want to cut six, wanted no more cuts, two wanted one more cut, nine wanted two more cuts this year. Three, by the way, was the average. One person who we think is Steven Myron wanted five more cuts this year. That forecast for deep cuts, by the way, called outrageous by Jeffrey Gundlach but could be a sign of things to come according to Joe Boswellis. He said given the coming changes to Federal Reserve personnel next year, we urge all to take this forecast with more than a grain of salt and would strongly suggest the Federal Reserve is moving in a direction where it will tolerate inflation well above target. Gundlach himself was concerned about negative interest rates, futures markets trading, though with confidence that there will be at least two cuts this year, maybe more confidence than Powell expressed. The key to the immediate outlook may be in the statement. It said that downside risks for employment have increased. Long as that's the case, the Fed may be cutting rates until inflation and employment risks are believed to be balanced.
Brian Sullivan
Brian, any talk about this so called, you know, third agenda that they may have about keeping interest rates stabilized for a long period, kind of adding that, that third leg to the Fed stool along with the job market and overall inflation.
Steve Liesman
So just to be clear, Brian, I've always known that was there, but it was never an aim of policy. The policy has always been focused on getting essentially inflation to target and doing so with maximum or the best you could do. When it comes to employment, the idea of stable interest rates has always been in the Federal Reserve act, but it's never been a focus of policy. I don't hear it right now, Brian, as a focus of policy, but I do hear people like Gundlach talking about this concern. I'll read you this quote that he said here real quickly where he said, I think the job interview that is for chair will, will be what will you do what I tell you to do. And if the answer is no, I think you're not going to be Fed chair. So that's one of the concerns I will point out though, and I think this is worth pointing out. The best way to secure or to improve your position for Fed chair would have been to dissent for a 50. Chris Waller and Mickey Bowman, both Fed chair candidates, did not do that today.
Brian Sullivan
Well said. And a lot of drama, not just around interest rates, but inside the Fed and the statement as well. Steve Liesman, we're glad you're there. Steve, thank you very much. Right guys, let's go around the table, talk about sort of put, you know, policy to action. Tim, your take on the Fed today.
Tim Seymour
It was a hawkish cut. There was no drama. In fact, that's what we wanted, is what the market wanted, is what the institution of the Federal Reserve wanted. And I think if you look at what the market had priced in it, it absolutely priced in 25, but it was, it was, it was inching for more than two rest of year and one in 26. I don't think it's a disaster. The downgrade of the Labor Market also no real surprise here, but when you hear that from the Fed and what we all say all the time is that a growth scare is something that would be a lot more powerful than the Fed not doing another 25 or 50 basis points. They didn't say that. I'm kind of happy we got this one out of the way because I actually think this was as uneventful outside of what it is for the institution of the Federal Reserve. And I thought, you know, Bowman and.
Brian Sullivan
Wall, even with the Myron call for halfway, what did you expect?
Tim Seymour
I mean I don't, I, I expected that or I expected an outlier and that's what we got. Everyone else voted in line.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I think those two folks that dissented in the last meeting, I think it's pretty interesting that they didn't dissent this time. It was such a big deal. We hadn't seen two dissenters in a very long time. That was kind of the narrative when you looked at that last. So at the end of the day I think they kind of did what they did or needed to do. They signaled, you know, what is going to be the case. I don't think there was too much expectations that there would be that much more than 75 basis points this year. I'm actually a little surprised. It's just two expected 25 basis point cuts next year. But they seem pretty much in the camp that their dual mandate is fairly balanced right here. And you know I just think of this, the stock market basically closed flat. You know the 10 year yield closed flat. I mean this is sort of the sort of market we're going to be in. I think that PC that's coming up is at the end of next next week. I mean might that be something that folks are concerned with? We saw the inflation readings over the last two weeks. We just didn't see any stock market volatility in around those sorts of.
Brian Sullivan
We have an S and P Dan, that's up I think and don't at me as guy would say 10% over the last three months. So was it a buy? The rumors.
Dan Nathan
We also had gold, you know gold has gone up 11%. When's the last time we could ever remember that gold has gone up in tune with a huge rip in the stock market. So there are some stuff going on under the surface.
Brian Sullivan
Yeah. And rates did come down ahead of this to your point. Right. We saw yields come down basically 10% in the last two months from the 30 year down to the two year. So I think there was a lot of Preloading, front loading on this, I think there's going to be more 25 basis point cuts, three in a row. Maybe we'll get that. But just remember, seven people called for no cut. Yeah. Things change, expectations change on a dime. And, and let's remember May 2026. He's. Powell is not going to be there. So I think the more you get closer to that or head into that date of May, the more dovish the Fed actually becomes. And those dissenters probably get louder. Yeah, because Michael, I'm going to say something now. It's going to offend approximately 99% of our audience, which isn't something everybody, which is that if you're running a hedge fund or your Goldman Sachs or any of your clients, if you wait till the Fed actually makes a rate call to say, oh, let's now buy stocks, you're done, you're fired, you're finished. Wall street did not wait. For weeks they've been buying bonds, bringing yields down, buying gold, buying stocks.
Michael Kintopoulos
Yeah, I'm going to be a little bit of the party pooper here. You know, every time the Fed cuts rates because of poor growth, you don't basically have a durable rally until they get well below neutral and you're actually stimulative. So unless you think they are now below neutral and that they're only cutting because of some sort of immaculate disinflation, you shouldn't actually be buying today's cut.
Brian Sullivan
No. 1 really small caps a little bit.
Michael Kintopoulos
Well, well, not only that. Well, you have to think about the rally that we've seen has been anticipation of this cut. Right. So. So it's already happened. The rally because of the cut has happened in my view. You know, Chair Powell indicated that he's caught between a rock and a hard place. And I think that was actually a pretty bearish message. He basically said, listen guys, this is an insurance cut. This is not the start of a new cutting cycle. Because we can't, because we're worried about inflation. And that's not necessarily positive.
Tim Seymour
So I want to. That's fascinating. And so does that mean that as of Jackson Hole, it was sell the market? Because ultimately what you're saying is any type of a cut environment, and that's where the Fed really pivoted. Leave the politics aside. Let's talk about the data, which is. I know what you're doing does, and I hear you historically. But, but again, if you think about all the accommodation and where rates were as a function of COVID and nothing else and hanging on too long. That these cuts are in line with the history you're talking about.
Michael Kintopoulos
You know, I don't think so because I don't think the Fed is actually restrictive. Right. If you look at, you know, financial conditions, they're incredibly easy. And so, you know, I just disagree with the idea of the Fed being restrictive at the moment. And, you know, unless you get. Listen, and it is possible, Tim, if you get falling inflation without growth rolling over, it's a boon to the market. We know that. Right. But what's the likelihood that you're not going to get inflation or serious margin compression from tariffs?
Brian Sullivan
Well, I think that's very, very low. Stay right there because I want. We got a great guest, a perfect guest, actually, to answer this, because I want to say something to that. And this is one of the reporters I can't remember, who followed up with Jerome Powell and said, I'm confused. I was listening. Jerome Powell. I was a little confused. He didn't sound as focused as maybe I would have liked him to be. But doesn't matter what I think. Let's bring in Richard Fisher, former Dallas Federal Reserve president, also a CBC contributor, a senior adviser to Jefferies. Richard, good to see you. Do you feel like Powell may be a little confused and maybe it's not his fault? If so, you could say, no, he's not. But when you've got AI out there, you've got this weird thing happening with jobs. And to Tim's point, you're coming off of four or five years where everything was kind of muddled up by Covid. I think we could forgive him if he is. Or am I wrong? Was he completely lucid today?
Richard Fisher
Look, I don't like the word confused. I thought he was quite honest. It's not clear in terms of the balance of risk which he articulated. We have some opposite forces acting here. Obviously, inflation is running closer to the 3% level. And by the way, if that's the case, you should always have a positive real return. Otherwise you hamper capital formation for businesses. So they're close to that presently as inflation is running at the same time. And I thought he was pretty articulate on this, which is the reason that we have weak employment statistics in addition to the revisions and all that kind of stuff is because of. He didn't say it directly, but because of the fiscal policy and because of immigration policy. So I didn't hear any confusion. I just heard a great articulation. I want to say one thing, though. As far as Bowman is concerned and Waller, I was rather proud of them because they stuck to their sense of economics logic. And clearly it's not just voting for 50 basis points this time, but for five cuts. It's very clear that Mr. Myron will only do what the President wants. And the best part about that, in my view, having been on that committee for 10 years, the way you win an argument is through persuasion and economic logic and presenting the data as you see it. He's having no influence whatsoever, and I think that's a good thing. We'll see how this evolves. He didn't have a chance to read the materials before the meeting, and we'll have to see when the transcript finally comes out how he behaved. And I assume that was civil.
Brian Sullivan
There's.
Richard Fisher
Okay, the nice thing is he had no influence. He had no influence, no influence on the argument, and that's pretty clear. And projecting five cuts going forward, he's way out left field, or should I say way out in right field in the case of this administration.
Brian Sullivan
I see what you did there. You said a lot. That's why we love having you on, Richard, by the way. So let's try to unpack this one by one. Okay, Stephen? Myron also, by the way, has kind of a dual role in the White House and in the Fed, which I don't think if we've seen it before, it's probably like in the 20s or 30s. And you'll forgive me for my lack of, of, of deep Fed history, you can comment on that. But what I'll say, and what I meant by Jerome Powell at the top, Richard, is that this is the first cut that we've had with the PCE and other inflationary measures as high as they are, I think, and Tim can talk, speak for himself, why they called this a, quote, hawkish cut.
Richard Fisher
Well, again, they do have a dual mandate, although every president, I don't care if it's Donald Trump or Democrat or Republican in history, is always emphasized the employment data. That's where their votes come from. That's why they worry about employment. It's perfectly understandable. And every Fed chairman, even though you have a dual mandate out of the modern system, has to worry about inflation, slash deflation. And I think finding that balance is a very difficult one. But I will not be the least bit surprised if the White House is critical of this decision because the President's worried about the employment situation. And he also, I think, and this is highly opinionated, forgive me, but he want to have, he wants to have a scapegoat. His average voter, 60% of his vote came from people without a high, either high school education or less. So that demographic here, when he says I want rates cut, I understand it's politics and that is those people listening to him who are a little more economically distressed right now than the rest of the 1%, etc. Hear that and think, ah, my credit card payment, my auto payments, my home payments will go down. As we all know, it doesn't work that way. That's not related to Fed funds. It's related to where the tenure is trading or where you are further out in the yield curve. So I understand the President's position, I understand the politics of it.
Brian Sullivan
Yeah.
Richard Fisher
The important thing is that the central bank not hew to that as Myron appears to be doing, but instead that they do things as objectively as a central bank should do.
Brian Sullivan
And let's hope Richard, we brought you on for that opinion. So we're glad that you expressed it. Richard. No, seriously. Richard Fisher, thank you. These are interesting. Fed. No, we don't want to. We love that's why you're a contributor. We actually legally can't. Thanks for coming. Richard Fisher thank you very much. Those points well taken. And I think his point at the end was kind of taken as well, Tim. Because the bond market didn't move today, the Fed can say what banks can lend at tomorrow, but I think the bond markets can have a say at what happens three, six months, years from now. Right.
Tim Seymour
And the bond market, if it was really worried about the Fed as an institution, might have started to talk a little bit more today. In the long end, rates might sell off. And because I can't do a better job on the economic story and inside of the Fed than Richard Fisher, I'm just going to give you my market perspective on this. This was a mildly hawkish cut, which gives you the reaction it had today. Of course, gold sold off today. Of course, the dollar strengthened today. I think the dollar continues to weaken. If the trend is anything close to what Michael is saying, the dollar is going to weaken and that's going to continue to be good for not only investing internationally and the emerging markets which are alive and well and have a lot more intrinsic growth than we have here. But I think mega cap tech is going to have its best quarter of the year in the fourth quarter because I don't see anything that stops that. So today was a breath for the market and I think it was an exciting day for the Federal Reserve because it is nice to see they are still in line.
Brian Sullivan
He Richard talked about jobs numbers, jobs Numbers have been abysmal. And it's not just. He stated immigration. If you go back, there was a print of revisions of almost a million jobs. It was never as strong as the Biden administration said. It was not that they lied, but it wasn't that strong. So you have immigration, you have issues. But we Revised it by 900,000. I think that was, I think that.
Tim Seymour
Revision was for the first until 25.
Brian Sullivan
No, it was under. It was through March.
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
Brian Sullivan
It was not.
Tim Seymour
It was six months or four months of the presidency.
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, it was backdated. It was all the government jobs that were added. It was not. It was, it was a Biden.
Tim Seymour
We don't need to talk about the Biden.
Brian Sullivan
No, no, my point, my point is the economy and the jobs market is weaker than we all think it is for various reasons.
Tim Seymour
Heard that.
Brian Sullivan
So we've heard that. But that's why they should be cutting. Well, that's why they should be cutting 50 basis points versus 20.
Dan Nathan
So you know, he mentioned GDP one and a half percent down from 2.8% last year. We know the average of jobs over the last, you know, let's call it 12 months, that's been weakening fairly dramatically. And so Mr. Fischer just said from a political standpoint, it makes perfect sense. We're starting to even see, you know, he gave a stat about folks who don't have college degrees. Every day you're reading a new story about the unemployment rate for kids who are graduating from college. It's been a difficult situation. I think Fed Chair Powell even spoke to that sort of today. So you have, you know, weakening jobs market, you have weakening GDP year over year. And you have a scenario where, you know, it's like, I don't know, I mean, like that was a risk management cut. That's what he said they're going to do and they're going to sit here and they're going to wait. CPI last year was 3.4% on average. We have it not that much lower right now.
Michael Kintopoulos
So the irony of this whole thing is that, you know, the administration wants to cut front end rates and they're talking about the multiplier effect and housing affordability and all this. And what happens if you cut a lot into the greatest economy ever? Long term rates skyrocketing.
Brian Sullivan
Hold on, hold on. Let's not forget they cut rates 75 basis points last year when the SAM rule. Yeah, but. Yeah, which four people in America had ever heard of until, until they did that. No. Yeah, maybe around this table. You get my point. I think that's, that's what frustrates some people, is that we got three cuts last year. Now we get sort of one cut. But yet you want the economy arguably was better last year than it was than it is right now.
Michael Kintopoulos
Well, if you look at the macro or data in August of last year, July and August of last year, it was objectively worse. You look at PMI as well, which.
Tim Seymour
Is why they rushed to 50.
Michael Kintopoulos
Exactly why they rushed 50. And the committee thought inflation was trending lower because tariffs weren't an issue. Remember, if we didn't have tariffs right now, the Fed would be seeing weak job numbers and no risk to inflation. And they might be cutting more, but because of tariffs, they're wary of inflation. They don't want to cut as much.
Brian Sullivan
All right, it's a good discussion there. Big news story, but we're not done on deck. Why news out of Nashville gave a big lift to Lyft. Plus why Carter War says it is time to sell one of China's biggest stocks.
Michael Kintopoulos
Your new beginning starts now. Dr. Horton has new construction homes available in Ellensburg and throughout the greater Seattle area. With spacious floor plans, flexible living spaces and home technology packages, you can enjoy more cozy moments and sweet memories in your beautiful new home. With new home communities opening in Ellensburg.
Brian Sullivan
And throughout the Seattle area, Dr. Horton.
Michael Kintopoulos
Has the ideal home for you.
Brian Sullivan
Learn more@doctor Horton.com Dr. Horton, America's builder.
Michael Kintopoulos
An equal housing opportunity builder.
Brian Sullivan
When work.
Steve Liesman
Gets crazy, I like to stop by the bar after have a few cold ones.
Michael Kintopoulos
I don't drink at all until 4 o'.
Brian Sullivan
Clock.
Dan Nathan
We limit ourselves to one bottle of wine a night. Excessive drinking has a way of sneaking up on us.
Brian Sullivan
A few drinks, a few nights a.
Dan Nathan
Week, it can add up and suddenly.
Steve Liesman
We'Re at greater risk for long term.
Dan Nathan
Problems like heart disease, cancer and depression.
Brian Sullivan
Reason enough to rethink the Drink more@rethinkthedrink.com.
Dan Nathan
NoHE initiative I'm no tech genius, but.
Michael Kintopoulos
I knew if I wanted my business.
Dan Nathan
To crush it, I needed a website.
Michael Kintopoulos
Now thankfully, Bluehost made it easy. I customized Optim, monetized everything exactly how I wanted with AI. In minutes my site was up. I couldn't believe it. The search engine tools even helped me get more site visitors. Whatever your passion project is, you can set it up with Bluehost with their 30 day money back guarantee. What have you got to lose? Head to bluehost.com to start now.
Brian Sullivan
Our Lyft was a big winner today. The rideshare company popping 13% is partnering with driverless car company Waymo and it's coming to Nashville. In other words, soon. Guys, you could, you know, have a few drinks in Nash, Vegas and then call a Waymo on the Lyft app. Shares at the highest level in three years. Uber, by the way, Tim, falling on the news.
Tim Seymour
Well, I think there has been this whole Waymo and which platform actually might be and there have been times we've been selling both these names on those days when it seemed as if they weren't going to be the platform from which driverless. Whether, whether it's Waymo, whether it's Tesla. I think part of the story in Lyft is also that the company is now got a lot more credibility with the Street. The analyst community probably took 15 months to get used to a new management team. The former management team did a poor job, had zero credibility with Wall Street. I think you had some insider buying, which is part of the story here. I think this is a company that was waiting to kind of normalize. I think stock. It's a bunch of ingredients. You can't tell me that this headline today is the reason why the stock before today was up 65% since a.
Brian Sullivan
Month ago it's there and they're going into Driverless autonomous, as you just stated, their, their international expansion, the acquisition of FreeNow app, all of this is heavy growth. I think the stock probably can cross over the $30 range. Then it gets a little sticky. What do we learn today though? You make a deal that doesn't involve human beings, your stock pops.
Dan Nathan
Well, let's be clear being serious, this is not silly. This is not them going into autonomous vehicles. This is them. No, but you get to part buy the logistics for one way or another. You know, Uber has done this with Waymo also. So it's just telling you that Waymo is in the caprice. Waymo can go to any of these folks and say we want to do this. Waymo knows that Robotaxi from Tesla sometime in the future. We just don't know when let's take the over on that is going to be there. So the more entrenched that they can be, the more markets they can be and using the different like it's sort of a situation. We've been talking about this for a while since Lyft was the L in your bland blice.
Tim Seymour
But it was a bland acronym.
Dan Nathan
Same. No, but the point here is that it could be at a $5 billion enterprise value like a year ago, you know, and they turned profitable and they're growing double digits and you know, that sort of thing. And people have just kind of left them out a little bit. They're not even.
Brian Sullivan
You've been in a Waymo.
Dan Nathan
I have, dude, I was in it yesterday. I took four.
Brian Sullivan
How do I know I'm not tracking your movements?
Dan Nathan
It is. I didn't say that you knew one way or another.
Brian Sullivan
I'm just telling you that I did it.
Dan Nathan
I took 10 Waymo rides in Los Angeles the last three days.
Brian Sullivan
It's amazing, isn't it?
Dan Nathan
It is. Literally, you're in the future.
Michael Kintopoulos
It's pretty fun.
Dan Nathan
But the question is, and we've been talking about, do they scale okay? Like, you look at these nice cars and they have all this hardware on them and the software that goes into it, that sort of thing. So I don't know if they do Robotaxi. I think that, you know, the Tesla valuation has a lot to do with that. But listen, I think Lyft is in a great spot. I think one of these networks probably buys them at some point.
Tim Seymour
The stock trades at, you know, one, one point, three times sales. I don't think it's expensive, but I sold 30 calls out to December because the stock's gone from 13 to 23 in three weeks. And, you know, I can roll up and out if some great stuff's happening. There's a lot of momentum in the stock. Take advantage of it.
Brian Sullivan
All right, good discussion on Lyft and Dan's Travel coming up. We're going to go from driverless cars to chicken fried steak crock. You don't even know what that is, Seymour. Is that Crocker Barrel? Cracker Barrel is on the move. Today we're going to tell you why and what's expected from the quarter. The stock down big. You're watching Fast Money live for the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We are back right after this.
Michael Kintopoulos
Netcredit is here to say yes to.
Dan Nathan
A personal loan or line of credit.
Michael Kintopoulos
When other lenders say no, apply in minutes and get a decision as soon.
Brian Sullivan
As the same day.
Michael Kintopoulos
Loans offered by Netcredit or lending partner banks and serviced by Netcredit Application subject.
Brian Sullivan
To review and approval.
Michael Kintopoulos
Learn more@netcredit.com partner netcredit credit to the people. I'm no tech genius, but I knew if I wanted my business to crush it, I needed a website. Now, thankfully, Bluehost made it easy. I customized, optimized and monetized everything exactly how I wanted with AI. In minutes, my site was up. I couldn't Believe it. The search engine tools even helped me get more site visitors. Whatever your passion project is, you can set it up with Bluehost with their 30 day money back guarantee. What have you got to lose? Head to bluehost.com to start now.
Brian Sullivan
All right, welcome or welcome back everybody. If you're just joining us, stocks they closed mixed this after the Federal Reserve did deliver what everybody and their mother and their mother's mother expected and that was a quarter point rate cut. The Dow did rise. It's up 260 points. The S and P and the NASDAQ were down small caps actually doing pretty well in the markets day. All right. So what happened when the market closed? Well, you got some stocks that are on the move. Cracker Barrel right now down 9%. They missed earnings expectations. Obviously a lot of drama lately around the old Cracker Barrel StubHub adding to a recent flurry of technology based IPOs. However, shares the online ticket seller notching a rare loss in its debut. That stock down about 6.3% from their IPO. Clearly bankers hoping it would go a little bit different than that. In the meantime, Alibaba continuing its rally today reports that the Chinese e commerce company signed a major customer for its AI Chips. Yes, apparently Alibaba is making a high. Chips shares are up more than 7% this week. They're trading at nearly four year highs. However, Chartmaster Carter War says it is time to trim your long Alibaba Carter Wirth welcome. What are the charts showing? Sure. Yeah. Today's note to clients was just simply a follow up from the August 12th note making the case to play as seen in this chart for a move out of the apex of that formation, meaning a coiled spring, the new iteration if we were to pull it up. The stock of course has moved out of that formation. Now do you sell at all? I don't think so. The second chart depicts the conclusion of that standoff. Up and out but 36% in five weeks. A lot more than the K Web or the fxi. My thought was trim a third to a half and then let the balance ride or sell calls the 180s for October. Going for five bucks allows you to participate for another 8.9percent and 12% if you include the $5 received. Anyway, a steep uncorrected day to day, week over week advance. Take some measures.
Tim Seymour
That was the thought.
Brian Sullivan
Yeah. I guess those measures would be to trim that position. Chartmaster Carter Worth thank you very much. Dan Nathan.
Dan Nathan
Thoughts on thoughts on Alibaba Carter does amazing work here.
Brian Sullivan
Very the shirt. He looks very relaxed.
Dan Nathan
Amazing. The two areas that I would focus on, first on technicals. The last two times over the last year, we've seen these sorts of parabolic moves. It's kind of retraced maybe 30, 35% of those 80 each indication. So, you know, his point about this thing breaking out from a technical perspective, I think to chase it here, you're probably making a mistake. And then the other one is like, if you just think about how Chinese stocks have acted or the sentiment around China relative to these trade talks or whatever, it's just a really interesting backdrop. I think, you know, when you think about our companies be able to get this probably what looks like a sweetheart deal with TikTok into this sort of negotiation. I just think that this is something to kind of pay attention to. But it could be somewhat artificial. It could be somewhat of a sell the news once we have a framework.
Brian Sullivan
All right, Michael? No, you're not an individual stock sky. China, broadly has been red hot the last couple of months.
Michael Kintopoulos
Yeah, it sure has. And I would wonder how much of the move in Baba overall in the market in general is just a function of growth momentum and how that's really sort of percolating throughout markets in general, whether that be, you know, the Mag 7 here in the US or amongst China markets, K Web, Amchai, etc. In, in China. And if you look at it, the reality is you have a lot of bubbling up of earnings growth internationally. Tim mentioned that earlier, I believe. But China is not one of the places where you're seeing that Chinese earnings growth is actually declining rather than accelerating. So I think much of what we see in China is more about momentum, more about momentum growth. And if there's a reason for that to stop, then I think the house of cards starts to fall.
Brian Sullivan
Well, we'll see. I'll tell you what, if you're talking about that and if Carter Wirth, Tim is right, they'll say the exodus is here, the happy ones.
Tim Seymour
I don't know who you just quoted, man, but it was good.
Brian Sullivan
Riley by the hoop. All right, coming up, the latest drug trial results on Eli Lilly's weight loss pill and how they're hoping it is going to tip the scales in the weight loss race. We're back after this. Put out the fire. All right, welcome back. Novo Nordisk Stock high right now just under 3% reports that its higher dose weight loss pill did help patients lose nearly 17% of their body weak body weight at 64 weeks. Now, this coming on the heels of detailed Results from the first obesity trial of Eli Lilly's weight loss pill. Stock reaction, though a little bit muted. Stock actually closed down 6, 10 of 1%. Let's get more on what we know with Angelica Peoples. Angelica.
Melissa Lee
Hey, Brian. Well, there's a lot of data today to get through, but first let's start with Lilly. So Lilly's pill helping people lose about 12% of their body weight after 72 weeks. And that's in line with what we previously heard from Lilly. And of course that headline number initially disappointing investors, but doctors today praising the results, saying that this pill could become a first line treatment for obesity, especially especially in the primary care setting where of course many people are getting treated. And one researcher giving possible reasons for the lower than expected weight loss. For example, that this trial enrolled more men than usual and men actually tend to lose less weight than women, believe it or not. And one doctor pushed back on investor criticism that the amount of weight loss here won't be enough. But just a few minutes ago, Novo saying that its obesity pill helped people lose more than 16% of their body weight. And Novo is feeling quite good about these results. I spoke to a Novo executive earlier today and telling me that in their view this is the first time that we have an oral obesity drug that's similar to the shots in terms of efficacy, tolerability and safety. And also a head to head trial today between both of these pills suggesting that side effects caused more people to stop taking Lilly's pill than Novos. So that's also something to watch here. Now for Lilly, the edge really is about the ability to scale its pill and ship it around the world. So that is one advantage of. But there's so much here and it's just something that we're going to have to watch as these two drugs come to market. Brian.
Brian Sullivan
All right, Angelica, thank you very much. All right, let's welcome in our guest, Jared Holz. On set, Mizuho healthcare strategist. Jared, first your reaction to Novo, Eli, and anything else you want. And also it's kind of a little bit in left field. But do we know a lot of people I talk to on this on these drugs complain about muscle loss, not fat loss and then they regain the weight. What do we know about these medications as of now?
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
Well, great to be here. I think first of all, both trials seem to be pretty good. Like when you look at them for what they are, to have a daily weight loss pill that's going to produce anywhere between 12, 15, 16% body weight reduction is great. So we have a solution that's going.
Brian Sullivan
To be in a lot of hope for a lot of people who've been struggling.
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
Massive hope. And to me it's a consumer product. It's going to be very difficult to see this not doing extremely well. Tough to really parse out. Novo versus Lilly. We just got the Novo data. It looks great on the surface, but we'll see kind of what the reactions are. And in terms of the muscle loss, I think it's only going to be pertinent for older populations, not as much younger. I think that's really where the concern is.
Brian Sullivan
Do we know how long before we are going to actually see these pills.
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
On the market next year? I think this is going to be a 2026 launch for both Lilly and Novo. So by the time we're sitting here next year we're going to be in the third full year where the injections are available and the first year where the pills are.
Brian Sullivan
Obesity impacts tens of millions of Americans. Why aren't these stocks reacting even more to this opportunity?
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
I think they're going to. I think there's going to be a delayed reaction to this. Novo especially.
Brian Sullivan
Well, the market doesn't only wait. So what's it waiting for?
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
I think the big concern is going to be there are two things the market questioning. One, pricing. Pricing is going to be less than the injectable. So is it a race to the bottom type situation competitively? And so many other companies in this arena trying to vie for positioning. We don't really know what's going to happen with Amgen, with Roche and a whole other slew of biotech companies here.
Tim Seymour
Well, if that's the case, if you're speaking about the competition as competition, because there has been no competition, then my guess is Lilly, which is is not a great stock and a great chart, it's a great company, but it's been dead money now for a year and a half. It sounds to me like the competitive landscape is about to get a lot worse and that would be a reason to not buy these stocks.
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
Well, I'm very certain that even over the next two or three years, still a two, this is a two player market. That all the concerns around the competitive entrance and what's happening in large cap pharma and biotech are existential longer term risks because you've got every single player trying to get into the market. This is the biggest therapeutic category by far. So I think over the near term I feel fine about it. Long term we'll see how this stuff shakes Out.
Brian Sullivan
Jared, when you look at the two you said before, it's hard to parse out who's going to be better in the long run. Why? Why is that? When you. When I look at Lilly stock, everyone sort of funnels into that name. And on either chart, I don't find anything really exciting. Exciting to buy on either chart. But when you look out on it, why is it so hard for analysts, the analyst community, to decide on who's going to be the winner?
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
Well, because the data, like today, is kind of metaphorical, right? We had Lilly data in the morning after the close. You've got Novo. They're going to continue to innovate around each other. So is this game of leapfrog in perpetuity, very difficult to kind of ascertain who the winner is on any particular day. So for now, I think Lilly on the injectable side is better. But now with this WeGovy data for Novo on the oral side hitting after the close, it seems like that race might be narrowing a little bit.
Brian Sullivan
Well, I would imagine. Jared, please correct me if I'm wrong. The winner is not going to be decided respectfully by Wall Street. It's going to be decided by doctors, which one do they prescribe? And by insurance company.
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
Insurance companies.
Brian Sullivan
Because if the insurance company says this one's covered, that one's not. This one's going to win.
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
I agree with you.
Brian Sullivan
Do you have any visibility or clarity?
Fidelity Trading Dashboard Announcer
Well, we don't really know what's going to happen with the orals. My guess is that the pricing for these pills is going to be half of what the injectables are, maybe even a little bit less. And we've seen what Novo and CVS have already done in terms of, you know, getting that relationship together, driving down the cost to increase volume. That'll continue to happen.
Brian Sullivan
Anybody got a take on either of these stocks?
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I do.
Brian Sullivan
Any of the way. Go ahead.
Tim Seymour
I mean, it just seems to me, and as someone that's long Novo over the last, I don't know, three, four months. And the Novo underperformance has been largely been based upon slight percentage differences in terms of body weight loss and tolerability, which is so qualitative, I think. I realize you take conditions and you try to attach data forms to them, but it just seems to me, as Jared said, and he also said, we were talking on the commercial break, I mean, we're talking about weight loss, drugs, as these guys are all bragging, by the way, what restaurants they go to in L. A. It was it was anyway, it was a different. You didn't see that, folks.
Brian Sullivan
But, but the point is that my figure.
Tim Seymour
Well, you know, the point is that, is that really for most people, that delta on the percentage weight loss and the tolerability, enough to have seen Novo Nordisk underperform Eli Lilly by 70% or so in the last 18 months? I don't think so. And that's part of the reason why I'm long Nova.
Brian Sullivan
Fair enough. Listen, stocks come from 90 to 58, up a little bit the last couple of weeks. So we'll see if that, that trend will continue. Jared Holtz, thank you very much. All right, coming up, call it Metta Madness. Mark Zuckerberg set to take the stage at the company's Connect conference. What can you expect to hear? How might it impact the stock? Why am I asking so many questions to myself? We're going to a short break. We're back right after this. Mark Zuckerberg's keynote at the Meta Connect Conference. Just a couple of hours away. I know you all can't wait. An AI powered smart glass is expected to take center stage. Julia Boorstin is there. She's got some detail. She's able to. I know you know more than you can say, Julia.
Melissa Lee
Well, I'm here at Meta headquarters in Menlo park and in just a few hours, we're expecting Mark Zuckerberg to unveil a new version of Meta's AI glasses. These are codenamed Hypernova, and they're expected to be smart glasses that include a display inside the glasses. They're expected to cost around $800, which would include a wristband to control the device with hand gestures. Now, all of this will build on Meta's AI powered Ray Ban smart glasses, which it first launched in 2023. And these new devices are expected to be a step closer to the fully augmented reality glasses called Orion, which Mark Zuckerberg previewed a year ago. This is all part of Meta's inclusion, increasing focus on hardware. Zuckerberg has emphasized that he believes that glasses which integrate with Meta AI are the way that people interact with AI in the future. The glasses come from the Reality Labs division, which also includes VR headsets. And this is a division that has lost more than $70 billion since late 2020. But Zuckerberg says this is a long term investment. The new version of the glasses come as Meta faces criticism, criticism from Congress and whistleblowers about its AI chat bots and the harmful effects of VR and children. We'll be talking about all of Meta's AI announcements in a first on CNBC interview that's going to be tomorrow morning. And money movers with Meta's chief product officer Chris Cox. Brian, back over to you.
Brian Sullivan
All right, Julia Boyce. And Julia, thank you very much. Dan, a take on Meta.
Dan Nathan
Listen, these guys have been early in this kind of stylistic sort of brand. The deal that they did with Ray Ban, I have a pair of them. I think they're pretty cool. They're thinking $300 sort of thing. They don't do a whole heck of a lot what they're talking about. This next gen one, it's 800, $900. That's a tougher, you know, sort of price point. Better do something well and it will. It's just not going to do things that most consumers need right. Like now. So you have to be like kind of a gadget guy to really or gal to really care about those things. And you know, Julia just mentioned Orion. This is the thing that they introduced last year. They introduced it for availability three years from then. You know what I mean? Like, who the heck knows where this stuff's going to be. What they make off of these glasses and the ones that are coming is like a rounding error on the revenue. So at least it's kind of demonstrating some sort of ability to have some real world AI physical sense.
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, I'm old enough to remember Google.
Dan Nathan
Glass was ahead of its time by the way.
Brian Sullivan
It was, but it didn't do anything. Eventually, in a way, I think it'll eventually get there. The problem is, does the spend reap the reward eventually? And these guys, to Dan's point, have spent a ton of money. They were there early, but they're spending 60 to 65 billion. And Julia said they've lost since 2020, $70 billion. Now it's a long term investment. They're the pioneers or one of the pioneers there. But we have to see when all of this stuff actually pays off.
Michael Kintopoulos
Well, this is one of the problems with these big mega cap tech companies in general. They used to be so attractive because they were asset light and now essentially they're asset heavy. Reminds you of an oil company who has to constantly dig for wells. That's what this whole entire race with AI, now the metaverse, etc. Etc. Really looks like to me.
Brian Sullivan
Metaverse, that that's going to be. That's a buying fake land next to Snoop Dogg. That's just trust me on this one, Michael. All right, coming up, retail rising. Consumer stocks hitting their highest level in years. The Names that are leading the charge on that red hot segment. Next. Pretty positive day for the retail s and P ETF hitting its highest level since January of 2022 aka a three and a half year high. One big winner, Walmart hit an intraday record. Bank of America bumping its 12 month price target on Walmart to 125 a share from 120. That implies about 20 more bucks for about 18% of upside. Saying the company is poised to be a leader in in the agentic AI commerce space.
Tim Seymour
What does that mean?
Brian Sullivan
I have no idea. Tim Seymour, you have a Wal Mart?
Tim Seymour
I do, I do and I think if you want to know why retail did so well and the XRT or not the XRT but other retail ETFs, it's because Wal Mart is probably 12 to 15% of it and that kind of a move. But the heavyweights have had a pretty good run. The story around Wal Mart really is margin expansion. Even at a time when people may or may not be concerned about some of the margins within the grocery business and some other places where they've been able to really extract a lot. I'm a long term holder of Wal Mart. I don't like the valuation but it's been very impressive how this stock has kept with market forces and continues to to trade at a multiple that's probably 10 turns where its 10 year averages.
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, and if you look at the investment, they've touched everything on digital, on commercial, on AI as you said, the agentic force behind that. But if you look at Costco as well, Costco still has a 90% above 90% renewal rate on their membership. Stock has lagged Walmart but I put those in the same bucket where I think that's going to be a Walmart's building out advertising technology too. Okay, well they got that going for them.
Dan Nathan
I mean Amazon has been a huge boon for us. Really high margins, great for their mix shift in North America. I mean listen, the agentic stuff for Walmart, for a lot of these big retailers that have a huge logistical network right there, they're dealing with all these obviously millions and millions of employees, of suppliers, of customers, all this sort of stuff, it's gonna be useful.
Brian Sullivan
All right, up next, it is your final trade Michael Kintopoulos kickoff final trades.
Michael Kintopoulos
I think you'd have a broadening of the market. The best way to trade that is an equal weight S and P. Tim.
Tim Seymour
Michael, thank you for joining us. Brian, thank you for joining us. Citibank, thank you for going higher. Banks continue Moneycenter banks like today's tape.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, so you're the man. If you're going to broaden out this market here. Wal Mart probably breaks out.
Brian Sullivan
Steve rates, they're going lower. Gold, Etherium, Bitcoin, all crypto. There you go. We have. I loved it. And we saw you on Power Lunch earlier. Thank you for schlepping as well. I was there as well. Guys, we'll see you tomorrow. I'll actually be back tomorrow night. Thanks everybody for watching Mac Starts right now.
Melissa Lee
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Are you ready to get spicy?
Brian Sullivan
These Doritos Golden Sriracha aren't that spicy.
Melissa Lee
Sriracha sounds pretty spicy to me.
Brian Sullivan
A little spicy, but also tangy and sweet.
Melissa Lee
Maybe it's time to turn up the heat.
Brian Sullivan
Or turn it down. It's time for something that's not too spicy. Try Doritos Golden Sriracha. Spicy but not too spicy.
Podcast: CNBC’s Fast Money
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Steve Grasso, Michael Kintopoulos
Contributors & Guests: Steve Liesman, Richard Fisher, Carter Worth, Angelica Peoples, Jared Holz, Julia Boorstin
This episode of “Fast Money” covers a packed day on Wall Street after the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated rate decision. The roundtable examines the nuances of the Fed’s move, implications for equities and bonds, and discusses major corporate stories—from Lyft’s driverless big win and China tech momentum to the high-stakes obesity drug race and Meta’s AI hardware ambitions. Actionable analysis is delivered with the familiar blend of institutional acumen and candid trader banter.
Segment: [02:38] – [14:41], [17:55] – [21:46]
Segment: [18:47] – [21:46]
Segment: [23:43] – [26:55]
Segment: [28:15] – [32:10]
Segment: [32:18] – [39:49]
Segment: [40:51] – [43:35]
Segment: [43:53] – [46:05]
This “Fast Money” episode unpacks the market’s muted reaction to a much-awaited Fed cut, skepticism about the sustainability of the equities rally, and considers the nuances of sectoral momentum (autonomous vehicles, China tech, obesity treatments, and retail adaptation to AI). The roundtable offers actionable takes for traders alongside “live from the floor” interviews and direct-speak insights for anyone staying smart (and nimble) in today’s market.
For More: cnbc.com/fastmoney