CNBC Fast Money – September 18, 2025

Host: Brian Sullivan (Melissa Lee off)
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Laurie Calvin (RBC)
Special Guests: Christina Parson, Frank Holland, Julia Boorstin, Diana Olich, Tom Rogers
Theme: Decoding record market highs, Fed impact, breakout stories in Intel, and navigating the evolving landscape of media and regulation.

1. Episode Overview

This episode covered a pivotal, risk-on day in markets with all major indices closing at record highs, centered on post-Fed optimism and a rare record in the small-cap Russell 2000. The team debated whether this rally is sustainable, dove into sector-specific drivers, and explored the wider market implications of the Intel/Nvidia partnership, FedEx/Lennar earnings, and media industry shakeups. Notable attention was given to policy tailwinds, valuation concerns, small cap vigor, and the crosswinds rocking big media.

2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. Market Record Highs & Fed Rate Cut Impact

[01:29 - 08:40]

• Day’s Highlights:
  • All four major indices hit record highs.
  • Russell 2000 set its first record close since November 2021.
  • 10-year yield rose to 4.14%, up from sub-4% yesterday.
• Appaloosa's David Tepper's Caution:
  • Cited the market's expensive valuation and moderate incremental impact of further Fed cuts.
  • Guy Adami: “When he’s somewhat cautious, which you really haven’t heard him be over the last decade or so, I think you have to take note.” [04:22]
• Goldilocks vs. Stagflation Light:
  • Tim Seymour: “You’ve got an easy [Fed] position and you’ve got an economy that’s not falling apart. Even if stocks are expensive, you’re buying equities in that environment.” [05:51]
  • Laurie Calvin: Warns market needs “a period of digestion,” raising concern over broadening trades and small cap valuations. [07:03]
• Yield-Stock Divergence:
  • Dan Nathan: Warned that rising yields (if they revisit 4.5%) could slow the S&P's breakneck surge and highlighted rotation out of “Mag 7” stocks. [05:51-07:03]

B. Debate: Do Small Caps Matter to This Rally?

[08:40 - 10:34]

• Tim Seymour: Downplayed small caps’ significance, calling them “insignificant” to most portfolios. [08:44]
• Panel Pushback:
  • Guy Adami & Melissa Lee: Defended small caps as “the number one barometer...representative of the entire economy.” [10:05]
  • Brian Sullivan: “They’re not the fifth Beatle. They matter and they’re representative of the entire economy, I think.” [10:07]
• Valuation Caution:
  • Laurie noted Russell trading at 16.5x PE, cautioning there's little upside room left. “You might get a couple more weeks...You watch valuations. We’re at 16 and a half times on the Russell PE...not a lot of room.” [09:01]

C. Breadth of the Rally – Industrial & Financial Leadership

[10:34 - 13:02]

• Brian Sullivan: Marker of broad-based strength—financials, industrials, and regionals joined the rally.
  • “This is a broad-based rally.” [11:12]
• Regionals Lagging:
  • Dan Nathan: Regional banks have not fully confirmed the move; may be the next breakout. [11:12]
• Sector Caution:
  • Melissa Lee: Industrials are “the most expensive sector in the S&P 500 right now…rally led by financials…makes me feel a little bit better." [13:02]

D. Managing Risks Ahead: Correction Coming?

[13:16-14:40]

• Laurie Calvin: “You do need to pull a little bit of flat froth out of here...might hit a few potholes in here...but I do think we go through some potholes.” [13:16]
• Drawdown Debate:
  • Brian Sullivan: “Would it be that bad if we had a 10% drawdown between now and the end of the year? I don’t think that would be an unhealthy thing for this market.” [14:06]
  • Guy Adami: “It’s great to say it when you’re sitting here in the catbird seat, but when you’re in the midst of one, nobody wants to go through it.” [14:15]

E. Intel/Nvidia Surprise: Is This a Turning Point for Intel?

[14:58 - 19:54]

• Christina Parson:
  • Nvidia’s $5 billion investment in Intel for joint work on data centers/PCs, not foundry.
  • “This is a vote of confidence in Intel, not necessarily their Foundry business…” [15:21]
  • Highest one-day Intel stock gain since 1987.
• Panel Insight:
  • Dan Nathan: "This is a company [Intel] that's missed every major tech cycle over the last 20 years...” [16:43]
  • Tim Seymour: “Collaboration with Nvidia is good for Intel…but that Taiwan Semi relationship...is tough to knock off.” [18:45]
  • Christina Parson: Noted potential political motivations, with Nvidia gaining US goodwill amid US-China tensions. [19:18]

F. FedEx Earnings: Guidance and Market Outlook

[21:49 - 23:56]

• Frank Holland:
  • "FedEx previously only offered guidance for the quarter…they gave full year guidance. Revenue outlook much better than expected…EPS…midpoint was below the estimate but obviously the top end was well above." [21:49]
  • Express division beat revenue/margin expectations.
  • Spinoff of FedEx Freight on track for June 2026.
  • UPS’s Mexico deal falls through; shares trading on FedEx sympathy.

G. Comcast’s Versant Spinoff: Media Industry Reshaped

[24:24 - 26:22]

• Julia Boorstin:
  • Versant to become parent of CNBC, MSNBC.
  • Revenue and operating cash flow declining, but "balance sheet showing strength..." [24:35]
  • Emphasis on flexibility for both organic and inorganic growth.

H. StubHub IPO Flounders, Ticketing Under Regulatory Fire

[27:50 - 29:28]

• Tim Seymour on StubHub: "Some of this is competitive landscape...Some value in Stub was derived in private markets." [28:26]
• Dan Nathan: “It's literally highway robbery,” on 25% fees in aftermarket ticket sales, with portents of coming regulatory/crackdown risk. [28:57]
• FTC sues Live Nation/Ticketmaster for excessive fees.

I. CDC Vax Guidance, Live Events, & Fast Money Live

[29:28 - 32:03]

• CDC votes against combo MMR/Varicella shot due to seizure risk in infants. [29:38]
• Fast Money Live trading event plug—broad attendance, audience banter.

J. Media Regulation & Jimmy Kimmel Suspension

[32:03 - 39:21]

• FCC chairman criticizes Kimmel over misleading statements on a public incident; Trump suggests revoking broadcast licenses.
• Tom Rogers (media exec):
  • Cited key history: “The Fairness Doctrine…was repealed by the FCC. An attempt by Congress to reinstate it, but President Reagan vetoed it...individual words or comments were divorced from the public interest standard.” [33:54]
  • Warns executive pressure on licenses could create chilling effect for shareholder-minded media conglomerates.
  • “President Trump has taken a view that independent regulatory agencies are really part of the executive branch...that sense, certainly, they're capable of doing that.” [38:26]

K. Earnings Recap: Darden (Olive Garden/Longhorn) and Lennar (Homebuilders)

[41:03 - 44:51]

• Darden Restaurants:
  • Disappointing quarterly results, up on raised full-year revenue guidance.
  • Guy Adami: “Valuation is still compelling...I don’t think you run too far from it despite the Olive Garden…” [41:24]
• Lennar (Homebuilder):
  • Q3 beat on EPS, revenue miss, weak guidance.
  • Chairman Stuart Miller: “We are going to bring down our expectations...it was a rough quarter, no question.” [42:15]
  • Laurie Calvin: “Analyst has been telling people to fade the trade because of affordability concerns. The why behind rates coming down matters.” [43:46]
• Panel agreed: Lower rates alone won't solve housing gridlock.

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Guy Adami on Tepper’s caution: “[That’s] about as dour as you’re going to hear David Tepper. So when he has that type of tone...I think you have to take note.” [04:22]
• Tim Seymour on Market Mood: “This is Goldilocks. You've got an easy position and you've got an economy that’s not falling apart.” [05:51]
• Brian Sullivan on Market Surprises: “If somebody was surprised that the Fed cut rates by a quarter percent, they should go back to whatever day job they had…” [08:03]
• Melissa Lee on Market Digestion: “We do think we need a period of digestion...the workhorse part of the market is hitting valuation ceilings.” [07:03]
• Christina Parson (on Intel): “This is a vote of confidence in Intel, not necessarily their Foundry business…” [15:21]
• Tom Rogers (on regulation): “Individual words or comments were divorced from the public interest standard. The only comments now that you can really be held liable for as individual comments are the seven dirty words.” [33:54]
• Tim Seymour (on media deals): “Private equity is great at value. I think this deal is going to happen.” [40:13]

4. Timestamps for Important Segments

• Market Records & Fed Takeaways: 01:29 – 08:40
• Small Cap Debate: 08:40 – 10:34
• Breadth Rally + Sector Rotation: 10:34 – 13:02
• Correction Risks: 13:16 – 14:40
• Intel/Nvidia Collaboration: 14:58 – 19:54
• FedEx Earnings: 21:49 – 23:56
• Comcast/Versant Spinout: 24:24 – 26:22
• StubHub & Ticketmaster Scrutiny: 27:50 – 29:28
• Media Regulation—Kimmel, Trump, FCC: 32:03 – 39:21
• Darden/Lennar Earnings & Housing Outlook: 41:03 – 44:51

5. Panelists’ Final Trades

[45:11]

• Tim Seymour: Money-center banks like Citibank at highs.
• Laurie Calvin: Financials – better value, benefit from rate cuts.
• Dan Nathan: UPS – down big from highs, argues for a bounce.
• Guy Adami: Not specified, typical banter on show camaraderie.

6. Summary Tone & Language

True to “Fast Money,” the banter was fast-paced, sometimes sharp, with humor and plainspoken assessments. Panelists maintained a skeptical yet opportunistic lens on recent frothy moves, called out risks, and debated the durability of everything from small cap rallies to media business models. Lively, blunt, and actionable.

For further details, key news, or revisit of topics, please reference corresponding timestamps above.