Mike Koh (2:17)

So you would know what's going on. And here's what. So here's what I learned here, Mel. Basically the Demand is extremely high right now for these new devices. We've seen that in the pre order data and we're seeing it here today with these enormous lines. When I was here a year ago for the iPhone 16, remember that was the one everyone is excited about, that I was going to drive this big super cycle that never materialized. The opposite is happening this year. The lines are sustaining and growing throughout the day, showing really strong demand for these new designs of the phones as the iPhone air the new design on the iPhone pro. And in fact, most of the people I talked to in line, Mel, they're going for that more expensive iPhone pro even with the, with the price increase as well. So it's extremely interesting to see the dynamics here and Apple really getting back to basics and making cool hardware changes that get people excited. And by the way, this may only be the beginning because next year there's a foldable phone expected on the way and the year after that a brand new idea of what the iPhone could look like with the 20th anniversary iPhone. So this could be the start of a big iPhone growth spurt. Mel.

Melissa Lee (3:27)

All right, Steve. Thanks. Steve Kovac. You know, I want to buy.

Eamonn Javers (3:33)

Can I get on that line for Apple?

Melissa Lee (3:34)

It's out there. That's all.

Tim Seymour (3:38)

A lot of excitement.

Melissa Lee (3:38)

Not rated g that shot behind Steve. Anyway, Steve kept it together totally as pro. I mean, if you saw what was happening, you would not believe it.

Tim Seymour (3:47)

Did everybody see what happened there?

Guy Adami (3:49)

I hope so.

Melissa Lee (3:50)

No, no, no. We were showing graphics, a video of Tim cook and all sorts of, you know, g rates.

Tim Seymour (3:55)

It's a family show.

Melissa Lee (3:57)

Anyway, let's get back on the trade here because it has been a remarkable run here on what had been considered sort of an evolutionary. I mean, I don't know what you thought of the iPhone air in terms of spurring this sort of response.

Tim Seymour (4:09)

Well, if you believe that Apple hasn't innovated in a long time and if you believe Apple's all about design and all about a product and all about an event. When I parked my citi bike, by the way, I'm long city, it was a city bike. I parked this morning. I saw that by the apple store and I saw a huge line. I haven't seen this in forever.

Melissa Lee (4:27)

Yeah.

Tim Seymour (4:28)

And I was like, are they really here for the new iPhone? And in fact they are. And it's just amazing to me that the analyst community who follows this stuff and we get a lot of different channel, channels, checks to determine. We look at component parts, we look at different pieces of the shipment chain and to be surprised and have to upgrade today. But you know my thesis on Apple is not that I mean I expecting runaway growth but I think that we priced in zero in terms of a refresh cycle about this phone. So yes, a better battery, yes A better camera, yes a sleeker body chassis whatever we're calling this by the way speaking of the segment we just had. So I think that this follow through and Apple continues to be very bullish especially in a backdrop where people are necessarily have not priced a lot right.

Melissa Lee (5:16)

I mean to JP Morgan's point is this enough to get us to the next real innovation which would be the foldable phone and to get us to the first meaningful offering in terms of AI. And so if this can be enough of a bridge then can you chart that?

Guy Adami (5:30)

Okay, so so that's innovation. I agree with all that stuff. I also say this. There was three times normal volume today, some short, some options expiry that I'm sure sort of spurred volume and had that late ramp in this stock and a bunch of other stocks. So there's that out there think to 60 was the prior high back in December. There's obviously a bull's eye on that. But now you can talk about innovation which I get. It's a company that's trading close to 31 times next year's numbers that has maybe 10% earnings growth, maybe 6% ish revenue growth with margins that have been flatlining, maybe starting to move up Apple a mod modest amount. So it's an expensive stock. Now you could say they deserve to be expensive and that's historically been true. But you have to understand you're absolutely paying up for Apple here.

Melissa Lee (6:15)

What did you see Michael, on the options front? Perfect night for you to be here. And do you think it's worth paying up for Apple?

Mike Koh (6:23)

Well first of all, we saw more than three times the average daily options volume in Apple today. It traded more than 2 million calls alone actually. So it was the second busiest stock actually in the options market. You know I'm kind of with Guy here though. I mean if you think about it this way, so 31 times forward versus 25ish, maybe a little bit more for the S and P. And the thing is that The S&P's compound annual growth rate on the revenue side is actually higher than Apple's is. It's just hard to see why you would pay, you know, such a premium. You know, it's a great company, generates massive amounts of free cash flow. That's great. The buyback story can't be quite as compelling just simply because of the size of the company now. And I'm obviously looking forward to better product on the AI side as we are from not just Apple but from Alphabet and others. But you need to see actually a reason to reach out and buy this one instead of the market broadly. And I don't see that that.

Melissa Lee (7:26)

I mean the point is, is that we're anticipating. Right, and so we're anticipating what, Tim? What, what is in the stock now and what is still not yet in the stock?

Tim Seymour (7:34)

Well, because markets are all time highs at an all time forward multiple for the S and P and for the NASDAQ effectively. I mean you can go back to pets.com days, but I mean really we're talking about a market that's expensive. Apple's now if you want to say it's expensive, that's fine. I get it for the kind of growth you're getting. But then it's been expensive for five years. Why when it was expensive six months ago, wasn't it sold off? Why wasn't it destroyed during April, during Liberation Day? So you can't tell me that the stock is too expensive because the markets put a multiple on it for a long time. That's north of 30. This is a company with 2.3 billion or more in terms of an installed base that's going to refresh. They're going to refresh at some point. They're not going to switch away from an iPhone. So if you're serving up AI and you're serving up services that have to grow with AI and part of the, I think the underlying story is that the developers and the opening up the Apple developers to the Apple Apple ecosystem around AI is something we still haven't seen. That's my argument also around services. But I'll just get back to where we're not in Apple, we're not in an AI valuation here. We're not in a company that's gotten anything out of AI. They've had headwinds, they've had headwinds from China. So I'm not going to tell you 20% growth is what we have here. But it would be crazy to be selling Apple here, especially as we are unlocking a refresh cycle that looks to be better than expected.

Melissa Lee (8:53)

Yeah. What do you, I mean in terms of the offering, I mean that Google antitrust case really unlocked a possibility for Apple in terms of an AI and.

Guy Adami (9:00)

You saw the way it traded on the back. Tim is right. I mean it's been, Apple's been Expensive now for probably the better part of four or five years. What's fascinating to me, you know, it was a growth stock, it was trading at a 13 multiple, was trading at a value stock valuation. Now that it's become a value stock is trading in a growth stock valuation. Maybe that makes sense and maybe you should pay up for a name like Apple. And maybe because it's in, you know, 400 and something ETFs in the passive world works for Apple. All those things are definitely tailwinds. But we have seen downdrafts before in the name, so it's not impervious to market sell offs. With that said, I mean given where we're trading, given where the market is right now, that level that we saw in December is probably in the crosshairs.

Tim Seymour (9:39)

And I think we, we have seen rotation within the biggest companies in the world and we've seen a resurgent Apple be part of a rotation. I mean, do we think the fundamentals in Tesla are so extraordinary here? Do we think that some of the moves in even Oracle today, you have another essentially big computing deal for them that probably won't be profitable and yet we're rewarding this stock in an enormous way. So there's a ton of liquidity out there. It's one of the top three or four biggest companies in the world with the most confidence, especially around capital markets and not making bad moves. You know, if you're, if you're, as an investor sometimes you don't want to make a bad move just like a company doesn't. And I think that's part of where people have a lot more confidence in terms of making a dollar allocation to Apple here and feeling that they're not going to be destroyed in that move.

Melissa Lee (10:22)

Yeah, I think it's an interesting point in terms of Oracle rewarding companies for things that may not be in fact profit. We don't know what the quality Oracle day are and it's up 4% here, Mike. So what have you seen when it comes to action regarding Oracle's huge climb and would you rather allocate a dollar to Oracle or to Apple here?

Tim Seymour (10:41)

Nice.

Mike Koh (10:41)

Would you rather check that out? That's, it's an interesting one. I mean, you know, I have to say that from an operating perspective, Apple has outperformed Oracle. If we just, if we just take a look at, we ignored the valuation for a second and focused only on revenue and earnings growth, then you actually have to hand that off to Apple. I'm not sure that that's the choice that investors have to make though. Right. So for me, when I'm looking at individual single stock opportunities, I look at them relative to the S and P. I look at them relative to the Russell. If they're going to be a mega cap stock as both of these are and that's where it has to become compelling.

Guy Adami (11:22)

Sorry, Mike, I was just going to say you snuck that in on Mike Powell.

Melissa Lee (11:26)

Would you rather there's no sneaking. I said loud and clear.

Tim Seymour (11:31)

Yeah, yeah, I think she did. And I think Mike was ready for it. Guy. Well, you know what?

Guy Adami (11:35)

He wasn't. But then he quickly got himself ready.

Melissa Lee (11:38)

Because you never know what's going to come out of our mouths at any Mike's always ready given moment. So what's going to come out of your mouth when it comes to in.

Guy Adami (11:43)

That same game now I'm going to sort of contradict myself in that same game. I got to take Apple. I mean I think given the run at Oracle's two weeks ago it said might be a different answer. But in the here and now, given the run Oracle's had and given the lack of run until recently, it's got to be Apple.

Tim Seymour (11:58)

Can I extend this? I mean or can you add another name?

Melissa Lee (12:01)

No, change the rule. Okay, go ahead.

Tim Seymour (12:04)

So. Well, I think you have to do this against Nvidia. I mean I think you have to do this against the growth company that's actually stagnated here. And you could make an argument has really underperformed a handful of stocks here but is the growth stock of the bunch. So it's now up to you, Melissa, who you want to ask that question to.

Melissa Lee (12:19)

Nvidia or Apple?

Mike Koh (12:21)

That one's to me. Nobody else is answering at you.

Melissa Lee (12:24)

I'm looking.

Tim Seymour (12:25)

I really wanted one of these guys to answer. It's. It's Nvidia. It's in the short term, it's Apple in the longer term, it's in video. I think in video. I'm comfortable on this valuation and but I again I'm long apple here.

Melissa Lee (12:37)

So meantime, stocks continuing to climb after the Fed's rate cut on Wednesday. The NASDAQ S&P and Dow all closing at record highs again today. But global bonds are selling off. Us, uk, Germany, Japanese rates all ticking higher over the past week. Rising yields likely to have the biggest impact of course on rate sensitive sectors like banks and homebuilders. You saw the moves today, Tim, in terms of the banks. This is a sector that you have liked. This theoretically is beneficial.

Tim Seymour (13:02)

Yeah, I think steeper yield curve. I think this was a week where by the way a couple of high flying IPOs haven't done so well. In fact a handful of IPOs even the last few weeks haven't done so well. But we have an IPO cycle, we have an M and A cycle. We see clearly with the posture in Washington, deals are getting done. We see a steeper yield curve, we see banks beginning to be able to give back even more capital. Then they're just the slightly bigger, slightly more qualitative dynamics around the regulatory environment. So I added the Citibank this week I added the money center banks and one of the points I've made on the show a lot which is that I think European banks, money center banks are more interesting than us. And I was just checking, you know the EU FN which is the ETF that tracks the largest money center banks across Europe is up 46% percent year to date against 12% for the XLF. Both those trades have worked. The European trade is better. And I still think the backdrop we look the market did this week after the Fed is said if we're in one of those periods, one of those few periods where the Fed is cutting in a non recessionary environment, this is a time to grab risk. In that barbell you're buying the relatively cheap banks as well.

Guy Adami (14:09)

Who's that cat that said history doesn't repeat it like Twain Rice. Mark Twain.

Tim Seymour (14:15)

Yeah, he's a cat.

Guy Adami (14:16)

He was a cat. A cool cat is a cool cat.

Tim Seymour (14:18)

Yeah. So.

Guy Adami (14:19)

And history doesn't rarely repeats but it certainly rhymes. And we talked about this all week long. In September of last year, Fed cuts rates 10 year yields go from 3.6% to 4 and a half percent. Fed cuts rates this week we saw that initial move lower in yields. Now they're starting to move and it's not just the U.S. 10 Japanese 10 year yields are at a 14 or 15 year high and they continue to sell. A bond market continues to sell off. So it's not just a US thing, it's a global bond move right now that I think, listen, the equity markets aren't paying attention to but I think at some point they better start.

Melissa Lee (14:51)

But I mean a 4.133%, not a.

Guy Adami (14:53)

Big, I'm not panicking.

Melissa Lee (14:56)

Well within the range that we have been in.

Tim Seymour (14:58)

No, but, but the call that at least at different times we've said look at yields in Japan and you had a BOJ meeting where you had two, two dissenting voices and that was actually that's a big deal in Japan. You also had the the government selling off almost half a trillion dollars of equity ETFs or beginning that process. There's a lot afoot in Japan. I don't think it's great for Japanese equities by the way. But there's no question we have to be watching the Japanese bond market. And in terms of what JG build yields in the past and bond yields have done is they have pulled up the long end of the U.S. treasury curve.

Melissa Lee (15:33)

Yeah, well we have seen also is a tick higher in mortgage rates, Mike, of the Fed decision which was interesting. We also had a tough day for Lennar which posted earnings which did not meet expectations and they were talking about how tough the housing market is still despite all these aggressive incentives they've been engaging in.

Mike Koh (15:49)

Yeah, I mean, well that's one of the things of course if they're engaging in incentives that brings down their margins. The 30 year fixed really is which is going to be tied to the ten year principally hasn't come in. So that hasn't helped affordability. Even though we have seen that median home prices have have declined by about 4 or 5% from their all time highs. So the housing trade is going to continue to be pressured. But you know, as you see this steepening yield curve, look, the longer end rates are going to go up for two reasons. They could go up because higher inflation expectations, they can go up for higher growth expectations. If the central bank is being more accommodative then we have to assume that there's some stimulative effect on the economy. So some of that is going to be economic growth related. And you know, that's one of the reasons that we saw financials basically end the week on the highs. And look, as long as financials continue to rally, it's really hard to sell equities generally. But the housing trade, you're going to need to see affordability improve. And I just don't see how that happens in the near term.

Melissa Lee (16:47)

All right, coming up, the clock is ticking on more than just a tick tock deal by one former Obama administration official thinks a chip trade war might be the newest major concern. That's next. Plus a closer look at the red hot rally in gold as it locks in its fifth trade winning week. How much juice is left in that trade right after this?

Tim Seymour (17:09)

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Melissa Lee (18:54)

Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got breaking news. President Trump speaking the OV office just now. Eamon Javors has been listening in, has all the highlights here. Eamon?

Guy Adami (19:01)

Yeah, Melissa, that's right. President Trump is talking tick tock in the Oval Office. He says that he and Xi Jinping did approve a deal to transfer tick tock to US Investors. He also says the deal is not closed and needs to be closed. He says progress on the deal is coming along very well. Here's what he said just a few moments ago.

Tim Seymour (19:23)

I had a great call with President Xi and as you know, he approved the TikTok deal and we're in the process. We have some great investors, some of the biggest in the world, American investors, great people. And we look forward to getting that deal closed. I guess it could be a formality. I found his word to be very good. We have a very good relationship. But the TikTok deal is well on its way, as you know, and the investors are getting ready. And I think China wanted to see.

Mike Koh (19:59)

It stay open too.

Tim Seymour (20:00)

They wanted to see it.

Guy Adami (20:02)

So the president there saying the TikTok deal is well on its way and needs final approval. He was also asked about this idea of the algorithm and who would control it. He said the US Side will have control under the deal. He's contemplating with Xi Jinping. And they discussed today and he was asked about the idea of a US government board seat on the newly reconstituted US TikTok. And he did not answer that directly. He did not say for sure that the US Will get a board seat. He said, we'll announce that presumably at some point in the future there's going to be an announcement of the specifics here. He was also asked, interesting enough, Melissa, Sean Spicer, the former White House press secretary, is in the press pool today asking questions of the president that he used to work for. And Spicer asked the president about this idea that Steve Bannon floated on Spicer's podcast of Scott Bessen, the Treasury secretary, having two hats, that is being treasury secretary and chairman of the Fed at the same time. The president poured a little cold water on that idea. He said, I don't think that will be necessary. He said he's asked Besson about being Fed chair and Besson doesn't want the job because he likes being at Treasury. But the president did have a joke there, which was he said maybe we could save some money in salary if we have the same person as treasury secretary and as Fed chair.

Melissa Lee (21:19)

Melissa all right, Amy, thanks. Aim Jabbers. Let's go on the talks between China and the US and the future of Tick Tock and all sorts of other things. We're joined by cnbc contributor to McNeil who served in the Obama administration. He's now senior policy analyst at Longview Global. Duarter, great to see you.

Eamonn Javers (21:37)

Hi, Melissa, great to see you as well.

Melissa Lee (21:39)

I want to focus in on this TikTok deal. While we know very few details, there's one detail that Eamonn did talk about just now, and that is the idea of who controls the algorithm and the vice commerce minister. Earlier this week, I believe it was said very clearly that regardless of what deal it is, it's not going to violate Chinese principles. And I would imagine that Chinese principles would include control of that algorithm, which was developed by the company. What's your take on whether or not a deal like this, even though we only know sort of the vague shadows of the deal right now, whether that actually complies with what China thinks would be right in principle?

Eamonn Javers (22:21)

Yeah, this is a very important point here, Melissa, because what you have now is what we've talked about for a while, and that's dueling laws and regulatory regimes. And I will reserve comments until I see the details of the deal. But what's coming out on the US Side, at least from where I am sitting, does not adhere to the protecting Americans against foreign adversarial control applications. That is the law which talks about complete divestiture, including the algorithm here, Melissa. So, you know, again, I want to reserve judgment until I see it, but so far it doesn't seem like this is going to adhere to that law.

Tim Seymour (23:06)

What does China gain by this? I mean, at the end of the day, again, Melissa's brought up this issue of principle. They can stand behind principle, and I think they will. And a lot of levels we've seen since the trade war negotiations really got going in earnest, that China has made it clear that they are going to hold their ground and largely to this point, not only have held their ground, but are in much better shape than most would have expected them to be. So why do they do this deal and what do you think the tradeoff was?

Eamonn Javers (23:34)

Yeah, this is also a good question here, Tim. Look, I think for China, this is all optics and principle. It is showing that it has the leverage to really defend and protect this interest, its companies. And so I don't think this is a core issue really for China, but they will continue to show the rest of the world and us that they have agency here and that they can make sure that it's clear that these are their laws, their rules, their way, and we're going to negotiate for the best deal for Chinese companies. That's what I think they get out of this.

Guy Adami (24:10)

Ten to Wardrick. Let me build upon Tim's fantastic question and ask, where does Taiwan play in all this? Are they a pawn in this game somehow? Is there, you know, are there levers being pulled that you give us this, we'll give you that, we'll back off on the Taiwan front guy.

Eamonn Javers (24:26)

Again, you guys are on it today. Look, I think I'm very concerned that the lack of a Taiwan discussion here in Washington in this administration, I don't think this came up today in this call. And why? Because we learned that over the summer a $400 million package of defensive weapons that we had agreed to sell to Taiwan did not go through. This is music to China's ears. And so I don't know that Taiwan is a pawn. I don't think that Taiwan, unfortunately, is even an issue. And that should be concerning to a lot of people.

Melissa Lee (25:03)

Just this week, DUA China told its companies in China to not buy Nvidia chips. Another, it's not. Not the age 20, but it's. It's another an RTX 6000D that has AI uses. And so it continues with this drumbeat of don't buy American technology because we're afraid of the national security risk on the Chinese side. And so I'm wondering to Wardrick, if you think at the end of the day here, given this, this conversation between Xi and Trump, if we're any better off, if we're any closer to some sort of trade deal, if there's going to be any more progress at APEC, or if your view of the situation is the same as earlier this week before the call.

Eamonn Javers (25:40)

Well, look, I don't want to downplay a leader to leader call. That's always important. In terms of moving the dial on the core issues, though, Melissa, I don't think that we are there. Let me just quickly say that what I hope to see happen when they meet on the sidelines at APEC is a discussion about critical minerals. That deal is set to sunset and the first week of December we don't have an answer for critical minerals. I think that's a very important thing for us to keep at the forefront here. So again, I think this is an important call, it's an important step. But I think we're a long ways away from some sort of comprehensive deal between the US And China on trade. There's a lot of things still left to discuss.

Melissa Lee (26:28)

Duoder, great to see you. Thanks.

Eamonn Javers (26:31)

Thank you.

Melissa Lee (26:31)

Melissa Deworder McNeil, Mike, your thoughts?

Mike Koh (26:35)

Yeah, I mean, I think it was probably not surprising that we would expect to see some pressure from China on purchasing chips. You know, one of the things that I remember was being discussed at the time when there was going to be some restrictions on the Nvidia chip sales to China was that they were going to recognize this as a potential strategic threat as part of their AI build out and they were going to start looking for alternatives. And so, you know, this is sort of a command economy over there. So you have to sort of anticipate that. And I don't think it's that surprising. I don't think necessarily though that that impedes on the value proposition that the best growth stories for American chip makers in Nvidia and Broadcom still represent.

Tim Seymour (27:18)

Yeah, I think that the China dialogue is one that's been the markets have been able to be placated by the headlines, but that we're really not in a very different place. I think why China has been outperforming is we've seen China assert themselves at least in favor of their own technology companies. We've also just seen emerging markets as an asset class really start to take off of which China is 40 to 45%. Look at that EEM look at the breakout. It's not just Alibaba and some of the K web stuff we've talked about. But if you look at emerging lower interest rates, this was another important week for emerging markets as a trade because you do have a weaker dollar whether it's two cuts, whether it's three cuts, it's a Fed easing cycle. And a little more clarity on that in a world that's not recessionary is great. I think continues to outperform.

Guy Adami (28:01)

I'm with Tim. You stay long. K. Webb through 39 and a half 40 and fix I think is still breaking out to the upside melts.

Melissa Lee (28:07)

There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

Eamonn Javers (28:12)

A red hot pair of commodities are.

Tim Seymour (28:14)

Tearing up the market. What's next for gold after its fifth winning week in a row? And can uranium manage an even bigger breakout?

Eamonn Javers (28:22)

Plus, we'll dive into a monster week.

Tim Seymour (28:24)

Of data for the two weight loss heavyweights.

Eamonn Javers (28:27)

How oral drug trial data is shaping the market around these names next?

Tim Seymour (28:32)

You're watching Fast MONEY live from the.

Eamonn Javers (28:34)

NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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Tim Seymour (29:18)

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Kavita Patel (29:21)

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Tim Seymour (29:23)

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Kavita Patel (29:37)

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Tim Seymour (29:40)

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Kavita Patel (29:42)

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Tim Seymour (29:44)

Stores or@dsw.com Let us surprise you.

Melissa Lee (29:50)

Welcome back to Fast Money Heavy Metals. Climbing in today's session, gold, silver, uranium, all locking in fifth straight winning week. The GDX Gold Miner index jumping more than 5% to an all time high while the URA Uranium ETF jumped 8%. Further capitalizing on the Power boom sweeping the market. Timmy flagged the moves. I don't want to. You've been on all of these trades.

Tim Seymour (30:09)

So I mean, and today was a day that really not only did the fundamentals line up, but you had some technical stuff. I think in the uranium market there's a squeeze going on. If you look at how some of these. There's a lot of guys that watch uranium stocks closely. A couple of guys pointed out to me also that the Sprott etf, excuse me, Uranium Trust, the physical trust, was trading at a navigation premium, which it never does. And there's a lot of technical reasons why they've been actually feeding news share supply into that demand. But what happened today was serious premiums. That these were trading at the volume that went through in a number of these uranium names is extraordinary. And it tells me there's either a transaction about to happen or there's a, there's a major utility, there are players that are short and I think that's part of it. And on the gold side, you know what you're hearing from the gold companies is also extraordinary. You're hearing companies like Newmont continue to sell off assets, non core assets, raise money and buy back shares. The free cash flow yields on these companies are going a lot higher. And the analyst community, UBS went From I think 125 to 160 just as an upgrade on the gold price. So mechanically there's a reason why these things have to go up. If you, you change your models purely based upon gold has gone parabolic. Stay long, these trades, be ready for more volatility because these moves are stratospheric. But these trends, and again China who pointed out that their, their currency reserves including gold are at an all time high. Less treasuries, these are trends that are, they actually are married to each other. Gold and uranium in some way 100%.

Guy Adami (31:39)

Now you look at, you are a 21% of his Cameco or Cameco, depending how you pronounce it, Oclo, another 1012. And Tim's right, I mean the valuations got extended. But you are a, for example bearish or bullish reversal over the last six or seven years. You're looking for a place to get in, not get out. And gold. I don't know what else to say. Otherwise it continues to work. Not only that mountains but we haven't talked about yet. Look at the move in silver over the last week, week and a half, that's getting off the mat in a major way. So precious metals PGM platinum plate. Yeah, they're all trying, I think, trying to tell us something.

Melissa Lee (32:12)

Coming up, where things stand in the weight loss space after a big week of data from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Well, pore over the numbers, figure out what is next for these names with Dr. Kavita Patel right after this.

Eamonn Javers (32:28)

Missed a moment of Fast. Catch us anytime on the Go follow the Fast Money podcast.

Tim Seymour (32:33)

We're back right after this.

Melissa Lee (32:44)

Welcome back to Fast Money. It's been a big week for GLP1 heavyweights Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Novo closing out its best week since February after reporting that a higher dose of its obesity pill helped patients lose almost 17% of their body weight at 64 weeks. Meantime, Lilly finished the week almost flat, even after giving better than expected data on its oral drug and outperforming lower doses of Novo's pill in a head to head trial. For more on the prescriber perspective, let's bring in Dr. Kavita Patel. She's an NBC News and MSNBC medical contributor. Dr. Patel, great to have you with us. I know you wear a trader hat sometimes, so it's great to get your perspective in terms of the outperformance. We saw Novo vs Lilly this week. There seems to be a real investor sentiment shift based on what happened at that conference in Vienna. And so I'm curious if from your standpoint, if Novo has pulled out in front.

Kavita Patel (33:33)

Yeah, I think, look, we've talked about cagrom in the earlier phase three trials with that's again just for memory, the combination cagrade Linux Tide and the semi glutide cagr linotide and semi glue Tide as an injectable and how that was disappointing or perceived as disappointing unfortunately. But we have even more data, both oral and injectable from Novo that's giving a lot of positive reinforcement and I think more than anything is just clear that Novo Nordisk is kind of going not just in obesity but beyond obesity. To think about all the things that we've been talking about with Lilly's drugs for Zepatide, food, noise and from a prescriber standpoint, remember GI side effects, medication adherence and cost are big drivers. It'll be interesting to see how Novo deals with that. The pill can be one thing, higher oral medication and dosing, but having to deal with some of those other things, costing number one is going to be important for the prescribing uptake.

Melissa Lee (34:29)

And so I'm curious in terms of where you think this is going because it seems like they're coming out with different offerings, different Tweaks on various molecules to appeal to different segments of the population. Those who want maximum weight loss, who are willing to put up with the side effects. Those who want pretty strong weight loss but with only minimal side effects. It seems like it's hitting more sort of points of the consumer where the consumer would want to take this drug.

Kavita Patel (34:55)

Yeah, Melissa, you're reading my mind because this is what patients want. So you have a core group of patients who really are demonstrating consistent weight loss on dosing that be honest, they're talking about dosing that can be low. LillyDirect's program has allowed for patients to have these kind of vials that can access different dosing than in the standard injection. And we're seeing this in real world evidence with patients. People are saying, well, I only need 1 milligram instead of 5 milligrams. So they're adjusting the dose to tweak either to a desired obesity kind of weight loss goal and or what will be really interesting is T Rex and some of the trials that come out with tirzepatite plus resistance that we're talking about some of the things that you can do on top of the drug and to see if that can reduce some of those. Not necessarily just the dosing, but to counter some of the claims around the sarcopenia, which is the muscle loss that sometimes we see when people lose that much fat, they lose muscle accordingly.

Tim Seymour (35:49)

Dr. Peetz. Tim, great to have you. And I guess let's take this now to the next level and make you continue to wear your traitor hat. But also from the inside of the industry, as you see, it seems to me the stocks are now trading on different dynamics. Used to really be percentages in terms of weight loss and tolerability readouts. Now we've just talked about the cost dynamics, we talked about the dosage dynamics and I think at this point what were small percentages in weight loss which made major percentage moves in the underlying stocks are less of a concern for the market. What do you think the medical community is more focused on here?

Kavita Patel (36:27)

Yeah, they're focused. And by the way, kind of simultaneously with Vienna, I'm actually at another medical conference where we are talking just about this very issue is what is it going to take for us to think about the whole body of evidence. And it's really this extension into kind of what I'll call metabolic syndrome looking at the cardiac effects. We've talked about this before, the clinical indications on label and what we're doing and even seen off label obstructive sleep apnea, congestive cardiac disease, congestive heart failure. And as you've seen, Novo has made it very clear from their announcements this week that that's the next phase, that they are going to make sure that cardiometabolic disease is a high priority. So this is going to continue to your point of where the companies are going to seek this additional geography. Chronic disease as well as the weight loss industry, but adapted to your needs. And that, by the way, does mean that they're going to have to think about people coming off of these drugs. This is something that we've seen. We know that these trials have been done with 68 to 72 weeks. What happens after that time period? The trials so far show that most patients regain their weight. But can some of these differences oral medication daily, not an injectable or an injectable with a slightly better, longer profile. Can that help?

Melissa Lee (37:38)

Dr. Patel, always great to get your perspective. Thank you.

Kavita Patel (37:41)

Thank you.

Melissa Lee (37:42)

Kavita Patel. Mike, your take on the divergence this week between the two?

Mike Koh (37:48)

Well, you know, I think a lot of people who've been watching Novo have just been wondering where a company that's trading, you know, at probably less than 15 times forward earnings still has solid top line growth is actually going to sort of turn the corner. Because if you take a look at the long term trend in Novo, I think we're still looking for it to get above that long term downtrend. And we're getting fairly close to that. I think up around 64, 65 bucks, we're probably going to break that downtrend. And if they start getting into these other areas like obstructive sleep apnea where Lilly already has an approval. So, you know, I think that this becomes rather interesting. I don't want to catch the falling knife, but I'm looking for that bearish.

Guy Adami (38:29)

To bullish reversal because that does sound painful. But I'll add structure. GPCR. We've actually had, I think the CEOs been on this show before and they have a similar indication as to Lilly. And if you look at what that stock's done over the last month or so, somebody just initiated, I think with a $75 price target. So if you want a flyer, it's GPCR melt coming up.

Melissa Lee (38:51)

Not everyone is charging up on the EV tray while our next guest is disconnecting from one part of the space and where she's plugging into instead the details. When FAST Money returns.

Eamonn Javers (39:03)

This December.

Tim Seymour (39:04)

Join the celebration in Times Square. CNBC opens its doors for an exclusive in person experience at the iconic NASDAQ.

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Market site in New York City. Fast Money LIVE Trading the Holidays Join Melissa Lee and the team of traders.

Tim Seymour (39:18)

Live and on air for an all access celebration unwrapping trades, trends and tips to ring in the new year.

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Fast Money LIVE trading the holidays December 11th.

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Get your tickets now at CNBC events.com fastmoney.

Melissa Lee (39:38)

Welcome back to Fast Money. Tesla popping to levels not seen since January. The stock is up nearly 5% this week, but our next guest warns the US is not ready for an EV boom. Let's bring in Lockdown Ganapathi of Unicus Research. She's the founder and CEO of the Short Investment research firm. She also has worked closely with Steve Eisman, known Steve for like eight or nine years.

Guy Adami (39:56)

Come on, this is the first.

Melissa Lee (39:59)

Great to have you with us. It is interesting in the EV space. You've had success with past shorts in this space specifically. And this time around you're highlighting ChargePoint. Why is that?

Lockdown Ganapathi (40:11)

Well, EV is an interesting concept and when we started in 2020, 2021, you can say everybody wants to be the next Tesla, everybody wants to be the trillion dollar company. But companies like Fisker, Faraday, Future Canoe, they had all the great concept. They had the subscription model, they had the concept, they had the prototype. But when it comes to whether you can scale it at a cost, that's not happening. So a lot of financial difficulties with all those three companies and they all went bankrupt around 2024. And that speaks volume. And ChargePoint, you mentioned it. Tesla recently opened up charging stations to all the EVs and I don't remember exactly when, but that is a lot beneficial compared to other EV companies like ChargePoint. And it's products, it's just they are there like a product but it's not working. And consumers that we spoke to conveyed frustrations on not charging.

Guy Adami (41:19)

It is great to have you here. And so the consumer is a big part of all these different trades and all these different companies. I think there's been a deterioration in terms of consumer credit. What are your thoughts in terms of the consumer and how it sort of plays into this entire thesis?

Lockdown Ganapathi (41:34)

Well, 60% of consumers, our population are living paycheck to paycheck. And how they are managing is thanks to or no thanks to buy now, pay Later. They're using it to bridge the gap. And shockingly, 25% of the consumers who use buy now pay later use it to pay groceries. And that is not a healthy economy. That's a very, you know, can I make it today kind of economy economy. The way consumer credit comes into picture is that when COVID pandemic happened the stimulus checks started flying out to all the consumers and I think that kind of tainted the what is a prime credit score and subprime credit score is so some consumers pay down the debt that boosted their credit availability and other consumers choose to buy things they otherwise wouldn't buy like a Maserati for instance. So auto loan origination spiked up and now we are on the other side of post pandemic hangover so to speak and we are seeing consumer delinquencies spiking up and what's interesting is we are not seeing it on the equity side. We have been focusing on the asset backed securities for audit loan originations and we are seeing spike in charge offs, spike in repossessions and it's amazing none of this is impacting the equity side yet you don't see companies increasing the PCL provision for credit losses. So it is consumers are in a very very tight spot Locks we are.

Melissa Lee (43:22)

Out of time but we hope you will come back. This has been a great discussion. We'll would love to dive deeper into both of these trades definitely of Unicus research.

Tim Seymour (43:31)

Well one of the themes here that she's very bullish on is at least the hybrid part of the subsector here and I couldn't agree more. And what we've seen if you're going to play hybrids I think you're playing Toyota in the US and I think you're playing a company that has shown amazing resilience, a much greater penetration. Their HP strategy is one that that seems to work and also is is is built for the infrastructure we do have here. So I like Toyota. I mentioned some reasons why I think Japanese equities might have a little trouble but this even over GM and Ford in the hybrid space even though I am a shareholder of GM of course.

Guy Adami (44:04)

Toyota being the team.

Melissa Lee (44:07)

Oh well nice.

Tim Seymour (44:09)

I didn't even know that you did. Nice to be part of it. Part of the tube. Yeah.

Melissa Lee (44:13)

Coming up shares of intel pulling back after yesterday's massive jump of President Trump is touting his trading prowess in the name the details on fast money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of intel pulling back after yesterday's big rally but still trading near its highs of the year. President Trump last night shared a stylized image that is Photoshop touting his apparent trading prowess in the stock. The meme shows him in front of a computer screens in fact referencing the government's $5 billion investment in intel shares were bought at $20 last month, now trading near 30. It's not the only investment, of course, that's paid off for the White House. In July, the Pentagon announced it was taking a 15% stake in Rare Earths Minor MP Materials shares are up over 140% since and you can sort of make the extrapolation to other assets to other stocks that have been favored by the Trump administration. Uranium is one, crypto is another, no question.

Tim Seymour (45:14)

The next question is are these unrealized gains or realized gains? And I do think these have been extraordinary trades and there's no question that the government can add a lot of value and it's not necessarily naughty that the government gets involved in certain strategic sectors. So fantastic work. Those are not booked trades yet, though.

Melissa Lee (45:34)

That's true. Mike where does intel go from here according to the office market?

Mike Koh (45:38)

Yeah, I mean I think that intel still has a tough road to hoe, but the good news is that there is a little bit of a virtuous cycle. If they start working on what is even a relatively small total addressable market, they still might get a little bit of a boost here.

Melissa Lee (45:51)

All right, up next, final trades, final trade time.

Mike Koh (46:03)

Mike now on the opposite side of the over levered BNPL consumer is American Express, which also has been doing a lot to improve the premium card benefits.

Tim Seymour (46:11)

XP Timothy Lacks with a fascinating conversation. Agree with her on hybrids and agree or she agrees with me, I believe on Toyota tm Happy Birthday Dan Nathan.

Guy Adami (46:21)

Tomorrow and Carlyle Group.

Tim Seymour (46:23)

Tim David Rubenstein One of the best CEOs out there and one of the best CEOs in baseball. Go. Oh Mark, Fine. Thanks for the shout out.

Melissa Lee (46:31)

Thanks for watching Fast. Have a terrific weekend. Mad Monday at June Kramer starts right now.

Kavita Patel (46:40)

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