CNBC "Fast Money" – Episode Summary (September 23, 2025)

Main Theme & Overview

This episode of "Fast Money," hosted by Melissa Lee with traders Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Julie Beal, dives deep into the current state of the AI-driven data center boom, highlights the capital and power challenges facing infrastructure investments, examines ripple effects in the restaurant and media industries, and gives on-the-spot analysis of major earnings (Micron) and late-breaking market developments. The panel scrutinizes whether the rally in AI and infrastructure stocks—particularly Oracle, Nvidia, and associated partners—is sustainable or speculative, and what broader economic and market risks may be emerging from runaway capital expenses and interconnectivity.

Key Discussion Points, Insights, and Segments

1. Oracle’s AI Data Center Buildout: Hype vs. Reality

[01:04 – 08:47]

• News: Oracle, OpenAI, SoftBank announce five new "Stargate" data centers across the U.S. The initiative will require $400B+ investment over three years, adding to Nvidia's prior $10B announcement.
• Scale: Combined projects total an unprecedented 17 gigawatts in new power demand.
• Concerns:
  • Is this a bubble? Oracle’s CEO (via interview) and OpenAI’s Sam Altman both say demand is real and overwhelming.
  • Power and Financing: Questions linger about how these enormous facilities will be powered—nuclear, renewables, or grid power all considered—and how projects will be financed given Oracle’s debt.

Panel takes:

• Dan Nathan: Warns about historic valuations for Oracle (trading at 40x next year's earnings) and the risk of negative free cash flow:
  • “Oracle is actually going to need Nvidia to come in and take a stake so they can buy their chips... This CapEx is bigger than any of the hyperscalers who have announced so far. No question, the right partners, no question there is demand. The question is really, what's it worth?” – [05:14]
• Julie Beal: Points out the opacity of returns:
  • “We have no clarity on what is the revenue potential of all of this investment. It is still completely an opaque concept that we have no real understanding of.” – [09:21]

2. Capital Markets & Marginal Players in AI Infrastructure

[10:23 – 16:35]

• Guest: Gil Lauria, DA Davidson

  • Offers a harsh reality check on Oracle and similar “incremental” players (Oracle, Coreweave, etc.), noting their high cost of capital and low returns versus the hyperscalers:
    • “That is like buying Treasuries on margin. That is value destructive and that’s where we have to focus.” – [10:48]
    • “In what world would or should Oracle trade at a higher multiple than Microsoft? …Microsoft is creating value, Oracle is going to be destroying value.” – [11:16]
  • Highlights the substantial dependence on OpenAI for Oracle’s growth, and warns OpenAI is booking capacity obligations it may not be able to fulfill.

• Market Implications:

  • Oracle and Coreweave may need to raise vast amounts of (expensive) debt or equity, threatening the overall economics of their businesses.
  • Key strategic advantage remains with Microsoft, Google, and Amazon due to scale and low capital costs.

3. Nvidia’s Role: Investor of Last Resort?

[16:35 – 19:04]

• Dan Nathan flags “vendor financing” concerns as Nvidia acts as investor and supplier in these massive AI buildouts:
  • “Oracle is going to be the patsy in this whole thing. OpenAI...they are basically going to lose tens of billions of dollars for the next, I don't know, five years or so... I just think there's obviously going to be winners and losers. The infrastructure guys...are going to be the compute for the future. Fine, but it's not going to trade at the multiple I think that is being afforded to them right now.” – [17:14]
• Despite headlines, Nvidia itself has underperformed recently, with the real benefits accruing to other stocks riding the AI wave.

4. Microsoft Performance Discussion

[19:04 – 19:37]

• Microsoft, despite being a key player in AI, has underperformed versus peers.
• Partly a “valuation reset” after previous outperformance.

5. Jerome Powell and the Macro Backdrop

[19:37 – 22:37]

• Fed Chair Powell signals concerns over high market valuations and a “low fire, low hire” job market.
• Remarks underline how difficult forecasting has become; Powell reiterates need for Fed policy flexibility, referencing labor, immigration, and inflation.
• Dan Nathan: “I do think some of these comments point out that the Fed is not runaway cutting rates.” – [22:26]

6. Micron Earnings and AI Memory Boom

[24:47 – 29:10]

• Micron posts strong earnings beat (shares up after-hours), aided by record demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips for Nvidia AI accelerators.
• CEO states they expect to sell all their HBM supply for 2026 soon, but some think the ramp is not fast enough for the market’s expectations.
• Tight supply and improved margins for both DRAM and NAND noted.
  • “He did comment again that DRAM supply would remain tight into next year. I think that is going to be a major issue.” – [27:52]
• Announced partnership with TSMC for HBM4, seen as both positive and a concern.

7. Crude Oil and Energy Stocks Rally

[30:39 – 31:54]

• Crude oil’s rally lifts the Vaneck Oil Services ETF (OIH) and refiners like Marathon Petroleum and Valero.
• Guy Adami: “Refining margins have not abated...until that turns you stay with it.”

8. Disney, Broadcast Media & The Jimmy Kimmel Fallout

[31:54 – 40:24]

• Crisis: Disney faces a revolt from affiliate stations refusing to air Jimmy Kimmel after a controversy, prompting speculation about the future of ABC and regulatory pressure.
• Laura Martin (Needham): Suggests Disney shutting down ABC could release $20B in value by escaping FCC regulation.
• Rich Greenfield (LightShed Partners): Argues Disney and other media giants are caught between their broad customer base and politicized environments.
  • “More programming, more high quality programming or notable programming moving off of broadcast television actually isn't good for the broadcasters that are boycotting today.” – [34:56]
• Panel discusses possible migration of late-night and “political” shows to streaming/cable to avoid regulatory risk—but at the cost of audience reach and advertiser value.

9. Weight Loss Drugs (GLP-1) Impact on Restaurant Stocks

[41:00 – 43:39]

• BTIG notes over 70% of users of GLP-1 drugs eat out less; greatest cutbacks are on soda, pizza, burgers, and snacks.
• Lower-income users represent a significant share, pressuring restaurant chains that rely on value menus.
• Panel notes: Brands like Sweetgreen, Chipotle relatively insulated due to healthy positioning; declining alcohol sales hit margins.
  • Julie Beal: “Alcohol sales are so much more profitable than food. So I think that's something to also keep in mind.” – [43:27]

10. Lululemon Downgrade

[44:51 – 45:38]

• Lululemon downgraded by Baird on doubts about growth and margin recovery amid tough competition; stock has halved this year.
• Guy Adami: “I think the company has issues...The stock is setting up for a pretty decent bounce.” – [45:26]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Oracle-OpenAI capex boom:

  • “Is it profitable business? ... This capex is bigger than any of the hyperscalers who have announced so far...But where does a company like Oracle that is $100 billion in debt and not a whole heck of a lot of cash, and really is going to have negative free cash flow for the beginning here to try to build this out?” – Dan Nathan [06:14]
  • “That's like buying Treasuries on margin. That is value destructive.” – Gil Lauria, DA Davidson [10:48]

• On AI’s adoption curve in enterprise:

  • “We're going to bring AI to work, just like we brought the iPhones to work. It's not the IT department that gave us iPhones and moved us to the age of mobile. We brought iPhones to work and that made us more productive. It’s going to be the same with AI.” – Gil Lauria [15:33]

• On Disney’s media bind:

  • “Disney has to fill its theme parks, they have to fill its cruise ships …remaining quote, unquote, apolitical is really important if you’re the Walt Disney Company.” – Rich Greenfield [34:51]
  • “The irony … is that you see a greater departure of programming that leaves broadcast television, which is already suffering from a lot of entertainment programming has shifted to cable and now to streaming.” – Rich Greenfield [37:02]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Oracle AI Buildout, Power & Financing Worries: [01:04 – 10:23]
• Guest: Gil Lauria (DA Davidson) – Oracle, ROI, Market Risks: [10:23 – 16:35]
• Nvidia as "Investor of Last Resort" and Vendor Financing Risks: [16:35 – 19:04]
• Microsoft’s Underperformance: [19:04 – 19:37]
• Jay Powell’s Economic Outlook and Market Impact: [19:37 – 22:37]
• Micron Earnings & Memory Cycle: [24:47 – 29:10]
• Oil/Energy Sector Rally Analysis: [30:39 – 31:54]
• Disney Broadcasting Crisis, Kimmel Fallout: [31:54 – 40:24]
• GLP-1 Weight Loss Drugs and Restaurant Stocks: [41:00 – 43:39]
• Lululemon’s Downward Spiral: [44:51 – 45:38]
• Final Trades & Closing Thoughts: [46:04 – 46:23]

Conclusion

This “Fast Money” episode delivers a nuanced, sometimes skeptical take on the AI infrastructure gold rush, warning of hidden pitfalls in debt-fueled tech expansion. It also explores the cross-industry ripples of current events—from changing media and advertising models to the knock-on effects of weight-loss megatrends—and emphasizes the importance of fundamentals and sustainability for investors eager to join the next big thing.