CNBC Fast Money – September 25, 2025
Hosted by Melissa Lee, with Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, Dan Nathan, Steve Grasso
Special guests: Eamon Javers (White House), Brent Thill (Jefferies), Phil LeBeau (CNBC), Andrew Davis (Bryn Mawr Trust Advisors)
Episode Overview
On this episode of Fast Money, the team tackles the latest developments on the high-profile TikTok US deal, debates the valuation and strategic implications for buyers and sellers, and analyzes the downstream effects for social media stocks like Snap and Meta. The show also covers earnings from retail giants Costco and Starbucks, digests CarMax’s bruising quarterly report for clues about consumer strength, and explores technical setups in large and small caps amid ongoing volatility. Throughout, traders discuss actionable moves and what’s next on key sectors.
Key Segments and Insights
1. The TikTok Deal: Breaking Down the Drama
[01:02–09:21]
Political Maneuvering and What’s on the Table
- President Trump has signed an executive order to allow a group of mostly American investors (including Trump allies like Larry Ellison and Rupert Murdoch) to buy TikTok's U.S. assets from ByteDance. The entity will be valued at $14 billion.
- The order is not a final sale; key players like ByteDance and actual named investors are not yet all public.
"This was not the deal signing. This was just the signing of an EO that certifies that the deal is kosher under the law. What we're waiting for is an actual transaction of the underlying asset."
—Eamon Javers, [04:25]
Valuation Skepticism and Key Concerns
- The $14 billion price tag is drawing skepticism.
- Snap’s current enterprise value is about $15B; ByteDance’s last private valuation exceeds $300B.
- Some desk members suspect the deal is a "sweetheart" price for Trump's political allies.
- Questions remain over algorithm control: ByteDance is expected to lease the algorithm, raising issues about efficacy and long-term value.
"If you just think about the Chinese and ByteDance, they have no obligation to sell this thing. They get banned. But, I mean, there is a bid much higher than $14 billion for this thing."
—Dan Nathan, [05:46]
- Snap and Meta influence: Panelists debate if Snap is a buy as a secondary beneficiary, given TikTok's drama and potential for shifting advertiser interest.
- Panelists note differences in TikTok vs. Snap user engagement and monetization strategies.
"This is a big, big deal for Oracle, even independent of, you know, call it the relationship that Larry Ellison has with the White House."
—Tim Seymour, [06:39]
2. Analyst Take: Brent Thill of Jefferies on TikTok, Meta, Oracle
[11:06–19:48]
TikTok Valuation
- Brent Thill: “That’s massively undervalued. Carter said it well, how do you buy a blender for a higher market cap? This is crazy...Makes zero sense.” [11:20]
- A fair value could be dramatically higher, though the potential need to recreate the algorithm presents risk.
Social Media Winners and Monetization
- Meta’s Instagram is viewed as the dominant monetization platform.
- Snap has not solved the monetization riddle despite significant engagement.
Oracle’s Cloud and AI Ambitions
- Oracle’s major contracts (OpenAI, Meta, TikTok) have extended its backlog to eye-popping levels.
- Thill highlights that Oracle stock “trades only on backlog” and is now at risk because none of this future business is yet realized.
"It’s not going to matter for the next two years because it's not going to come off their backlog...100% of Oracle stock move is on backlog."
—Brent Thill, [18:02]
3. Oracle’s Recent Stock Moves and Trader Strategy
[19:48–22:41]
- Stock is down 16% from recent highs after a massive run (+27% this month).
- Analysts debate if profits are real and sustainable, and if share price is now disconnected from actual cash flows and delivery risk.
"If this thing is only trading on one number that we don't really have a lot of visibility on, I think at some point you see this thing come in, fill that gap, and then have a ball at 250."
—Dan Nathan, [22:26]
4. Costco Earnings: A Reliable Performer With a Stretch Valuation?
[24:49–27:57]
- Membership income up 14% YoY, partly from fee hikes.
- Price increases, lean SKUs, and strong merchandise margins continue to support high multiples and outperformance versus Walmart and competitors.
- However, at 47x trailing and 40x forward earnings, traders warn it’s looking rich—even compared to itself.
"The question is, is this a topping out formation right in otherwise epic run? This is a stock...It has all the elements that it is the same price it was, you know, eight, 10 months ago."
—Carter Worth, [27:06]
5. Starbucks Restructuring: A Sneaky Reset?
[29:39–32:17]
- Announcing a $1B restructuring, closing 500 stores, laying off 900 employees mainly in North America.
- CEO Brian Niccol pivots back to a "coffeehouse and customer" focus.
- Traders describe it as a "sneaky restructuring," not a dramatic overhaul.
- Short-term pain for the stock, but some longer-term confidence in management; suggested to buy near $80 for a trade.
"What today reaffirmed is that there is no quick fix. It's been a year and I don't think you have to rush into the stock..."
—Tim Seymour, [30:55]
6. Macro Check: AI Capex, Market Risks, and the K-Shaped Consumer
Guest: Andrew Davis, Bryn Mawr Trust Advisors, [33:23–36:52]
- Davis is overweight equities, bullish on the capex cycle from AI buildout, and “plenty of runway ahead” through 2026.
- Fed is “data dependent,” not “dot plot dependent”; investors should watch productivity, consumer behavior, and inflation.
- Most focus: “high end” consumers now driving the economic engine, while low end are “definitely feeling the pinch.” Watch for layoffs or deterioration in high-income spending as risk signals.
"Powell's been crystal clear on that point...In 2025 it's don't fight the data."
—Andrew Davis, [34:09]
7. CarMax Earnings: Consumer Cracks and Industry Fallout
[38:38–43:45]
Brutal Misses for CarMax
- Missed on top and bottom lines; vehicle sales down; loan loss reserves up 26%.
- CEO concedes each month of the quarter worsened.
- Loan quality (delinquencies, defaults) is “deteriorating” especially in 2022-23 loans.
“Month by month, the quarter got worse. Now, they believe they’re better positioned now. But…they missed on the top and the bottom line, vehicle sales...that went down and loan loss provisions, they went up—by 26% compared to the same quarter last year.”
—Phil LeBeau, [38:56]
- Supplier stocks (Visteon, Magna, BorgWarner, Lear) have outperformed as they’ve passed along tariff costs to automakers.
- CarMax is more exposed to lower quality buyers who are increasingly delinquent, while high-FICO consumers are sidelined.
"There's also a consumer tell within the CarMax report...consumers with higher FICO scores are sitting on the sidelines. Those with lower FICO scores...are buying cars."
—Melissa Lee, [41:59]
8. Chartmaster’s Take: Russell 2000 & Metals
[43:45–44:12]
- Carter Worth favors oil services and, judging from Tim’s hints, likes GM “near breaking through a three-year, breaking near a five-year” technical level. Calls out Russell 2000 pullback as a place to watch.
Notable Quotes & Moments
- "[TikTok’s] valuation makes zero sense. The market cap of Snap is 14. The market cap of Meta is close to $2 trillion. This doesn’t make any sense." —Brent Thill, [11:20]
- "Oracle trades only on backlog. It makes my job easy. Focus on backlog." —Brent Thill, [18:42]
- "I would love for that algo to be degraded for the kids not to enjoy this thing anymore." —Dan Nathan, on TikTok algorithm, [09:21]
- "[Costco] is more expensive than Oracle. I don’t know, I’d rather own WalMart." —Steve Grasso, [25:45]
- "This is not a good experience. It’s not a good price point... I think Chipotle will get their act together." —Steve Grasso, on Starbucks vs. Chipotle, [31:58]
Actionable Takeaways
- TikTok Deal: Skepticism abounds over the $14B price and the ability for the buyers to truly control the asset and its all-important algorithm. Watch for possible bidding wars or regulatory snags.
- Snap/Meta: Snap may see a relief rally amid TikTok drama, but structural monetization challenges remain. Meta/Instagram retain the strongest ad proposition.
- Oracle: Is being rewarded for “backlog” not revenue, which could spell volatility if execution falters.
- Costco: The stock’s epic run is bumping up against valuation ceilings, despite continued operational excellence.
- Starbucks: Restructuring is seen as a holding pattern for now; major upside not imminent.
- CarMax: Credit quality is a growing concern, especially as lending standards tightened elsewhere and lower-FICO buyers dominate.
- Small Caps/Tech: Technical charts suggest selective opportunities, but the broad market is still led by megacap tech and sentiment remains sensitive to Fed and consumer signals.