Guy Adami (2:28)

Well, I think we've done a decent job with Intel. You know, we've said for a while we could get back to the levels that we saw in July of last year when it broke down from 34 and a half and went in a straight line low. So here we are now, it did it today on two times normal volume. You mentioned all the headlines. I think we all would agree their business is not fixed by any stretch. But this investment clearly helps. But what do you do now? I would suggest given the volume we traded and given the fact we're up against a downtrend line from the spring of 2021, if our crack staff wants to go back that far, you got to be taking profits here. Yes, you could get more headlines and maybe get a little more juice here, but I think that most of the run is pretty much over now.

Melissa Lee (3:04)

Yeah.

Tim Seymour (3:05)

Tim, I'm surprised that today's headlines.

Melissa Lee (3:07)

Yes.

Tim Seymour (3:08)

Did anything.

Melissa Lee (3:09)

Thank you.

Tim Seymour (3:10)

And I'm not surprised that a headline around limits on foreign chips in the US and a one to one ratio and different things that I heard that also are not necessarily stated as as gospel yet. But that, that does make sense. It does make sense. Therefore, if intel can do some kind of a deal with Taiwan Semi and there can be some offload in terms of some of the capacity and production the discussion around Apple makes. I don't, I don't even. Doesn't make any sense to me. But I read those headlines. Taiwan Semi seemed to not confirm in fact kind of refuted that there was anything going on. And yet here we are. So I do think that some of the upward pressure on the stock was more about the dynamics that still makes this semiconductor usa that's this company national champion. They're not and yet they are and that's if you have every one of these players. Let's leave Apple out for a second. But it does make some sense. Why you could see something with Taiwan Semi. Taiwan Semi has certainly engaged with this government, with this country, has talked about building out foundry. There are, there are plenty of plans in the works here. The idea within video we talked about that. I thought that made as much sense for Nvidia as it did for, for intel even though they got the bigger relative boost in market cap. So Guy, you know, he's like, sell it, sell it here. I think he's probably right, except for the fact that I do think that there are more announcements to come and this is what seems to move this stock.

Melissa Lee (4:32)

Yeah, I mean, what's sort of ironic about this whole thing is government backs up. I get the first initial in video deal, I get. But then when you hear headlines that it's looking for money from Apple and from Taiwan company, start thinking like desperation is being rewarded in the stock actually, like, why does it need so much money?

Karen Finerman (4:49)

I don't know this expression, you know, feed the seals when they're barking. So. So I guess that's partially what's going on here. The government has not yet closed.

Tim Seymour (4:58)

Have you ever steak? Have you ever, by the way, I mean, do you go to the. Do you go to the zoo? And that would be the only place I would expect you to be feeding seals.

Melissa Lee (5:05)

But nonetheless, yes.

Karen Finerman (5:09)

So I don't know if that's actually closed. I don't. I don't think that it has. So I agree that I'm sort of, sort of curious to me some of this other stuff, but I do think that the part where you are taking away some of the downside, if there is liquidity, if there is there, I mean, you know, the bonds have sort of been terrible now they've found a bid in the last couple of months. So if there's life there, that's good. But having, you know, missed having seen the stock trade at 2021 and now having it at 35, I could not possibly think of buying it here.

Courtney Garcia (5:39)

Yeah. And I think when we saw over the summer they came out and basically said, okay with our foundry business, we're basically not moving forward until we actually have like some like looking forward to people who are going to invest here. I think that's what you're looking at because investors didn't really like to see that news. But now you're seeing they're actively going to these investors to make sure they're getting the money there. So I do think that's going to be a positive for them because I think longer term it is their foundry business that people are hopeful on, but that is still expected to have a loss through 2027. And I think realistically here this stock is up over 40% in like two weeks. And we're talking about this is the this month, but most that was just in the last two weeks. And I think after this kind of a run when their core business still isn't fixed. Yeah, I'd probably be looking to take some profits here more than anything else.

Melissa Lee (6:21)

All right. We'll get some more on intel and what the options market are saying about the stock later on in the show. But first we want to turn to the broader market. Major indices snapping a three day losing streak even after President Trump announced a slew of industry specific tariffs set to take effect October 1st. Truck manufacturer Packer up 5% after the President wrote on Truth Social that the US will impose a 25% tariff on heavy trucks. Paccar, which which owns Peterbilt and Kenworth, makes over 90% of US trucks domestically. Meantime, home furnishing stocks mixed after Trump said kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and related products would be tariffed at a 50% rate. Upholstered furniture will get a 30% levy. RH in floor and decor, among the biggest laggards in the group. And the president said he would impose a 100% tariff on any branded or patented pharma products. That follow several major U.S. manufacturing deals that pharma companies have struck in recent months. European drugmaker Zealand pharma, Novo Nordisk Roach getting hit the hardest today. But this is still an overhang here in the markets in terms of the tariffs to come, the inflation to come, the price increases, you know, by companies whether they're eaten or passed on to come. Still. Karen?

Karen Finerman (7:30)

Yeah. You know, I don't know what to make of these and I feel like it switched from shoot first, ask questions later to ask questions first because maybe it won't even happen and maybe the effects of it are less than you think. And you know, I know we'll talk about the pharma stocks later. I mean the, I don't know. I find the cabinets as a strategic. Is it a.

Melissa Lee (7:52)

What was the national security.

Karen Finerman (7:53)

Yes.

Melissa Lee (7:54)

National security conservation Upholstered furniture guy furniture must be.

Karen Finerman (7:57)

I don't know why the upholstered versus the other. I'm not really sure.

Melissa Lee (8:00)

Upholstered.

Tim Seymour (8:01)

Yes.

Karen Finerman (8:01)

I just wonder maybe was that he likes upholstered furniture more. I think he does like upholstery. So I don't know what that was about. I mean I also, I don't love this sort of what seems scattershot strategy. It's hard to run a business when you just don't know what your tariffs are going to be. So I don't know what to make of the whole thing. I don't trade on it.

Melissa Lee (8:22)

I mean we already heard from RH and they said that they would take a tariff hit and trading lower again on a potential. Yeah.

Tim Seymour (8:29)

And I guess I look at today's price action and I think people are asking questions first and shooting later in that. I think people are not moving in the market here. I think the market today was all about a softer pce. You actually had consumption data that was showing that the consumer is spending. We had a week where long, long time GDP was better than expected, but jobless claims were better. We've got a jobs number next week and as long as the job market's not falling out of bed, this was a week when the data supported the equity market. It said that the world isn't all that bad and that in fact this is a great environment to be buying equities. And after three days of where it seemed like people, you know, a lot of charts, Carter talked about yesterday starting to roll some mega cap tech that was stalling, you know, after three days after today it felt like it feels pretty good back out there again. And I think that's where the market responded more to the macro than those headlines.

Melissa Lee (9:23)

Yeah. What's also optimistic I suppose is that in terms of the tariff impact, the impact was really focused on individual stocks as opposed to a broader market concern.

Courtney Garcia (9:34)

Yeah, but even then, I mean, I think a lot of these tariffs are seen as more bark and less bite. I mean a lot of this has been, I don't know if you want to call it a negotiation, but they're coming in much worse than they're actually going to be. And that's why I think markets have realized that they, they need to wait to digest this and even see if there's going to be any sort of legal action against them and can they even take place. So I think you're going to get some of these knee jerk reactions with the specific names that are going to be impacted by this, but I don't think it's anything you want to trade on, at least in the short term.

Guy Adami (9:59)

Set whole fool me once, you know, shame on you, fool me twice. And I think the market realized when they sold the market off aggressively in April when he came out with these, you know, seemingly preposterous numbers in terms of tariffs, the market sold off and then he backed off. And I think the market is saying today, I think everybody said the same thing that, you know, we sort of don't believe it's going to happen. I actually thought these, I thought Restoration Hardware actually traded pretty well today, all things being equal. And obviously the market did as well. The one caveat of course being the bond market, which is now 10 year yields up almost 20 ish 19 basis points since the Fed cut rates a.

Marco Santori (10:32)

Couple of weeks ago.

Melissa Lee (10:33)

All right, let's focus in on the pharma tariff impact with Jared Holz, health care strategist at Mizuho. Jared, always good to see you. So it was a shrug basically from big cap pharma stocks in terms of the impact, but walk us through some of the impacts on some of the smaller players that may not have US manufacturing. I would think that it would have a much more devastating impact for not the mercs of the world, but maybe sort of the mid and the small caps.

Jared Holz (10:56)

Yeah, I totally agree. I mean that was the, I think some of the response out of the buy side community last night on the tweet itself was could this have a negative impact for companies that are not domestic and have not really moved manufacturing here? I think the issue is that most of the biotech companies that we follow are mainly domestic, even though they might have R and D efforts and development efforts overseas. So the net impact today was positive for pharma. And even though there is a little bit more opaqueness around biotech that you alluded to, most of the companies are located here. And when you kind of consider the tweet and the commentary around if you have your facilities here and if you're investing here, you're kind of, you know, out of the fray to some extent. So not a, not a huge risk, I don't think.

Melissa Lee (11:46)

Right. Let's move and look ahead to Monday because Monday is a deadline for most favored nation updates in terms of pricing strategy from big pharma. What are you expecting big pharma companies to say and how does the, you know, we will build here in Delaware or Texas fit in with mfn?

Jared Holz (12:07)

Yeah, I think that's first and foremost the, the amount of cash that's been allocated or promised for domestic production I think will be number one on the, on the response list from pharma. AstraZeneca, 50 billion. Roche, 50 billion. J&J, 50 billion. Eli Lilly, 50 billion. That's four companies, 200 billion. I think there's another 100 billion in there somewhere. When you kind of aggregate everybody else, that'll be first, I think second will be just the crushing potential for R and D if prices are cut too dramatically. Will be two, there will be some sort of reconciliation done, I believe to kind of show the government this is, you know, potentially very bad. And then three, I think it'll be we're going to have no choice but to increase prices elsewhere rather than reduce here. So if you're okay with that, maybe that's the strategy. And we've seen some of that kind of come out, you know, the woodwork over the past couple weeks.

Guy Adami (13:05)

So this variable has been out there for a while. But does it change the calculus in terms of M and A? In other words, does it force people's hand more or does people get ratcheted back more?

Jared Holz (13:16)

I think it forces people's hands more. You know, this has been a pretty big year for M and A. I think there are some who believe it should have been or it was set up to be stronger. These things obviously take time. And there's a. There's so many companies within the public domain, as we know, private, we've spoken about China. I think it accelerates it because I think that even when you consider everything and maybe it's not so bad, the headwinds still outweigh the tailwinds for this industry. It's got to accelerate it.

Karen Finerman (13:44)

So if you're in the increased price elsewhere camp, if that's what you've got to do, rather how much would that affect demand and what could they trade into if you can't by the expense of U.S. drugs?

Jared Holz (13:56)

Well, not only could it affect demand, I mean it's really tough to know it's going to be a drug by drug basis. Right. Like some oncology drugs that may not be avoidable, you know, versus other drugs that are not necessarily unmet medical need are less. But what we're also seeing is pharma companies almost threatening countries by saying we will pull out versus selling our products at such a steep discount. Because if we can retain the cost of doing business here, we may be better off. And then the MFN impact won't be as severe on the other side. So I think that's going to be part of it too.

Melissa Lee (14:32)

Wait, it's not going to be as severe because they're just not operating in a country. And so the pricing standard is not there.

Jared Holz (14:38)

Right.

Melissa Lee (14:38)

The benchmark's not there.

Jared Holz (14:39)

The expenses associated with running a business in a country where you're selling drugs at such a discount may not be worth it. So you can pull out now. I don't actually think that will happen, but I think the threat of that is, is certainly possible.

Tim Seymour (14:50)

But the United States isn't that market. Right?

Jared Holz (14:52)

I mean, the United States.

Tim Seymour (14:53)

One thing, if you're a landlord on a side street and you say I'm not going to rent it for a below market rent, I'll wait it out. But you can't Wait out the United States.

Jared Holz (15:00)

No, that this country will be protected. We know that the pricing dynamic is needs fixing. I think it'll happen by increasing Europe rather than cutting here too dramatically. I mean, between the Iraq, the loss of exclusivity, mfn, this industry has never been under more pressure. I don't believe. So there have to be ways to kind of navigate through it. And I think possibly pulling out of markets where the economics just don't make sense. Could be one of those. Could be one of those results.

Melissa Lee (15:30)

Jared, thanks for coming by. Good to see you.

Tim Seymour (15:32)

Before we can't let him go, we got to talk about something.

Karen Finerman (15:37)

Yeah.

Tim Seymour (15:37)

Brownies win a game and suddenly all.

Guy Adami (15:39)

Of a sudden he's Mr. Brown.

Tim Seymour (15:40)

Mr. Brown.

Guy Adami (15:41)

I mean, it's unbelievable.

Tim Seymour (15:42)

You know what? In his defense, it's been a tough team to root for. And Jared shows up every, every week with Brown on, so to speak.

Guy Adami (15:50)

Well, that is like. But I like what he's doing.

Tim Seymour (15:52)

Stingy D. And a lot of people.

Guy Adami (15:55)

Say it might be the best defense.

Tim Seymour (15:56)

At least in the North.

Melissa Lee (15:57)

Enough. Thank you.

Emily Wilkins (15:59)

Thanks.

Melissa Lee (16:00)

Meantime, we've got breaking news here on the Supreme Court allowing the Trump administration to withhold about $4 billion in foreign aid. Emily Wilkins is live in D.C. with the latest. Emily?

Emily Wilkins (16:10)

Melissa? Well, yeah, I mean, this is a big ruling from the Supreme Court as it applies really to the debate that we're having right now over funding the government and shutdown the White House. If you remember, they actually went to Congress a few months ago and said, hey, we want to withhold this funding. Congress voted. It was a partisan vote, but ultimately they approved it. Then the White House said, hey, we're not actually even going to ask you to approve it this time. We're just letting you know were going to withhold $40 billion in foreign aid. And now the Supreme Court has come forward 6, 3 to say that the White House is allowed at this point to withhold that funding. And remember, this is funding that Congress approved in a bipartisan manner with both Republicans and Democrats working for it. I mean, this is really government 101. It's supposed to be Congress that has the right to decide exactly how the federal government is going to spend money and on what. And so I think this really brings in a lot of questions as Congress once again trying to figure out what the funding levels are going to be for fiscal year 2026. Is the funding that Congress actually approves going to be spent by the White House? Or are you going to see more examples where the White House withholds funding. I mean, this ruling does point out that a lot of this is on foreign aid. And the ruling says that the executive's conduct of foreign affairs outweigh the potential harms to the plaintiffs. So it seems like this is specific on foreign aid, but of course opens up a lot of questions about what's going to happen with the next funding to come and what other funding the White House might try to withhold.

Melissa Lee (17:44)

Meantime, Emily, can you give us an update on the potential government shutdown? We've got five days.

Emily Wilkins (17:49)

Yep, just five days away. And honestly, Melissa, at this point we don't seem to be any closer to some sort of a resolution here. At this point, it does look like the government shutdown. It would begin Tuesday at midnight. The wide ranging number of impacts, the longer a shutdown goes. If the government still shut down next Friday, we could not see job numbers from there. Delays to loans to small businesses, to farmers, a slowdown process for companies going public. There could be impacts at the ports and of course, no pay for federal workers or contractors. And since, of course, the U.S. national Parks and monuments would also likely be shuttered. The U.S. travel association estimating that the travel industry will lose a billion dollars for each week of the shutdown. Of course, remember, the shutdown is set to be different than any we've seen before because the White House is threatening massive layoffs of federal workers. Now, the Senate is back Monday evening. As of now, we are expecting them to vote on continuing the current funding to November 21st. Give them seven weeks to try and figure out exactly how to do the more detailed funding for fiscal 2026. But you're going to need 60 senators to vote for that, which means if all Republicans vote, you need at least seven Democrats. And at this point, we'll see what develops over the weekend. But it just doesn't seem like those votes are there right now.

Melissa Lee (19:08)

Melissa and Emily, the last time the government has fully shut down was more than a decade ago.

Emily Wilkins (19:14)

It was 20, I guess. Yeah, 2013 was more than a decade ago. Huh. There was a partial government shutdown in 2018, but this one would be a total government shutdown.

Melissa Lee (19:23)

All right, Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. I ask that only because typically the market looks through these sorts of events, they are short term, et cetera. But this is a full government shutdown and we have not seen it again for more than a decade. Is this a little bit different this time around, do you think, or no?

Guy Adami (19:38)

I've thought it's been. I've thought a couple different times. It'll be different. And we get to sort of the 11th hour and things sort of work themselves out. And I think the market is saying, you know what, we're not going to sell anything until we know for sure and then we'll have enough time. So I don't think you can trade on the back of this. In my opinion.

Tim Seymour (19:52)

I would not be trading on the back of it or I certainly wouldn't be trading. To the downside, I, I'm going to look past this. It doesn't mean it's not troubling. And I think what we're talking about in terms of just White House acting unilaterally in areas where, you know, the government who have legislated a budget market are pushing back. There is certainly a side that's dug in very deep here and I don't think it's going to be easy.

Melissa Lee (20:16)

Coming up, a boost for Boeing shares seeing their best day in three months. The headlines behind the liftoff and whether this name can fly even higher. Plus, Nike limping into earnings next week with $1 billion tariff threat hanging over its head. What we can expect from the sportswear giants report right after this.

Tim Seymour (20:34)

This is Fast MONEY with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc.

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Melissa Lee (22:35)

Welcome back to Fast Money Clearing skies for Boeing. The FAA easing restrictions on the company allowing Boeing to take back partial control of safety checks on its 737 Max and 787 Dreamliner planes. Additionally Turkish Airlines placing an order for 225 Boeing planes after President Trump met with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Shares of Boeing up over 3% today. Is this sort of the final gate for Boeing to clear?

Courtney Garcia (23:02)

I mean the hope is right. I mean I think the fact that you're seeing those restrictions are easing means that we're finally getting okay with their new processes in replace. They don't need as much oversight And I think the fact that you're seeing more and more orders is showing that people are actually starting to be okay with ordering these planes. They're comfortable with their new process and I think that is what they've needed. At the end of the day it is a duopoly.

Melissa Lee (23:22)

Right.

Courtney Garcia (23:22)

It's either them or Airbus. There's only so many options and this is a really aging fleet across the entire airline. Space like this is really needed at this point though. They have like over 6,500 orders I think and backlog it comes to can they deliver on them. I think that's the big question which.

Melissa Lee (23:37)

We have to watch.

Courtney Garcia (23:38)

But I think these are all very positive signs for Boeing in the long run.

Melissa Lee (23:41)

President Trump is quite the salesperson for us made goods.

Tim Seymour (23:44)

Absolutely.

Melissa Lee (23:44)

Planes and Boeing.

Tim Seymour (23:46)

Boeing was on the, they were on the kind of the global tour and they should be and this is also the being banned or bland whichever word you want to use. I'll use them both and I think it will be fascinating to see what kind of a, of a cash burn or a free cash flow number there it is we have at the end of the year for, for Boeing because I think the analyst community has not priced in any free cash flow and it's just about how much less of a burn and a move from 37 to 42. I think in terms of the 7 30, 38 to 42 on on production and deliveries is something that really does start to move the needle. So it's not about the order book for Boeing and it's not about demand.

Karen Finerman (24:24)

Yeah. It's about cash flow. It's also the B, I think in carbs. In carbs it is.

Melissa Lee (24:29)

Yes. Because I thought if I get A.

Karen Finerman (24:32)

For aerospace, it could be. I mean we've seen the stock higher than here on the hopes that this would happen actually.

Tim Seymour (24:40)

So look at that. It is. Son of a gun.

Karen Finerman (24:41)

What?

Tim Seymour (24:42)

Son of a. You actually did it right there.

Karen Finerman (24:44)

There we go. So. But they've had some other things. Although there was some positive news on the Boeing and defense strike workers today. Maybe they're back at the table. That could be good. So I still like it right here. This is very good news. But I still think it's less lots to go.

Guy Adami (24:58)

255 was.

Marco Santori (24:59)

I'm laughing.

Guy Adami (25:00)

Could have been crabbed. That might have been. But then embraced. Could have been even better. But I digress.

Tim Seymour (25:06)

It's like we're playing per quacky.

Guy Adami (25:08)

No, but 255. The December 24 high. Ish. And then you go back to March of 2021. I think that's where it goes and that's where it's had trouble before, but I think that's where it's headed.

Melissa Lee (25:17)

All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

Tim Seymour (25:21)

Just sell it. The massive tariff threat hanging over Nike earnings and how the sportswear giant could get back into the next. Plus, forget about a government shutdown. Sticky inflation is the market's real problem, according to our next guest. Why he says the Fed's hands are tied and what that could mean for the market. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square.

Jared Holz (25:47)

We're back right after this.

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Melissa Lee (26:59)

Welcome back to FAST money. We've got a news alert on a new target for President Trump. Eamon Jabers is in Washington with the latest. Eamon.

Guy Adami (27:07)

Melissa, President Trump here creating a potential political problem for Microsoft. Posting on social media just a short time ago, a lengthy attack on Lisa Monaco, who is the deputy attorney general under President Biden. President Trump blames Monaco for her involvement in the Russia investigation, the January 6 investigation and a whole host of other things. And in a lengthy post about her which he just put up, he says this. He says Monaco has been shockingly hired as the president of global affairs for Microsoft in a very senior role with access to highly sensitive information. Monaco's having that kind of access is unacceptable and cannot be allowed to stand. She is a menace to US national security, especially given the major contracts that Microsoft has with the United States government. Because of Monaco's many wrongful acts, the US Government recently stripped her of all security clearances, took away all of her access to national security intelligence, and banned her from all federal properties. It is my opinion that Microsoft should immediately terminate the employment of Lisa Monaco. So obviously a very tough situation for Microsoft. Now we've reached out to them. They don't have any immediate response for us here. Will reach out to Monaco as well. But you can imagine this puts Microsoft certainly on the defensive politically and Lisa Monaco certainly on the defensive personally. The question is, you know, what is Microsoft going to do about this? It reminds me a little bit of the Jimmy Kimmel situation for Disney. Do you stand up to a president who's demanding firings or do you say, you know what, let's move this person out of the way and live to fight another day? It's a really challenging situation now for Microsoft.

Melissa Lee (28:49)

Just one question. You may or may not know the answer, Eamon. So I apologize in advance, but were all those clearances removed because she no longer works for the administration, she's no longer a government employee?

Guy Adami (28:59)

No. So what President Trump has been doing with a lot of national security officials who serve for serve with Biden is going after them for their involvement in the January 6 investigation or in the Russia investigation before that, and stripping them of their security clearances. That's highly unusual and vindictive I mean, it is the President going after these people because he has the perception that they went after him. Typically when somebody leaves a very high senior position like that in the national security establishment, like deputy Attorney general, they keep their security clearances pretty much indefinitely as long as they keep them active. And that allows people who are former officials to work as consultants and other things. It can be very lucrative for them to continue to have that national security access. Without it, they can be unable to do a lot of jobs that they're qualified for in the private sector. So this hits Lisa Monaco where it hurts, which is her earnings potential and then, you know, potentially causes a problem for Microsoft as well. It's highly unusual. President Trump has been doing this because he feels a sense of vindictiveness against these Biden era officials and now he's targeting them one by one, as we saw with James Comey and the indictment there. And now this with Lisa Monaco.

Melissa Lee (30:16)

Right. Eamon. Thank you. Eamon Javers. We are seeing Microsoft stock down by just about a half a percent in the after hours. It does look like there's some reaction in terms of that slight decline in the after hours. But you know, the question here is we have all of these tech CEOs trying to fall in line with the administration. You have Tim Cook in the Oval Office handing him a piece of gold, gold Nvidia and investing in intel. So many other actions. And then you have Microsoft here now with this problem. What do you do?

Guy Adami (30:43)

Is it a. I mean, yes.

Melissa Lee (30:45)

Problem is that President Trump is saying you have contracts and we don't like.

Marco Santori (30:49)

What you know what.

Guy Adami (30:50)

And my sense is that they will figure out a way to sort of gracefully get themselves out. There are reasons to be bearish in Microsoft in my opinion, valuation maybe being one of them. But I don't think this is it. I think they will figure this out over the weekend as as much my.

Tim Seymour (31:02)

Sense, Microsoft, which has underperformed the group though, Right. And we've talked about this. It's been a bonanza for the, the broader semiconductor space. But again that rotation we've seen within tech, even mega cap tech. Yet here we've talked about, we've talked to analysts over the last couple of weeks when we've talked about the open air deals and Nvidia and Oracle and they all seemingly say Microsoft is the place you still have the most confidence because they are the place that is actually entirely directly with the customer getting paid. On this I agree with Guy. I'm going to believe there's going to be a way out of this. But the president has spoken. They will have to deal with this and I'm sure they will have to kiss and make up somehow.

Melissa Lee (31:43)

If you are a Microsoft shareholder, Courtney, do you want Microsoft to fire this woman?

Courtney Garcia (31:49)

I mean, I don't know enough about it to I think make that call. But I think, I don't know if is this that different than didn't we see Trump calling for the resignation of the CEO of Intel recently and then he made a U turn on that like a week later after he met him at the White House. So I mean how much of this is like can you take this headline at face value or is this him getting them to the negotiation table? Like I have no idea. So I mean this headline just coming across, I'd have to look at it before I made a stock call, but that's kind of my gut reaction.

Karen Finerman (32:15)

Well, I guess Satya Nadella should ask Tim Cook where he got that gold thing so he could bring one excellent point by you. I had actually forgotten about that even though it happened so recently about Liputin and, and now the government's and now.

Tim Seymour (32:31)

And we're doing that with countries right and left. I mean India was a pariah then suddenly Modi's my best friend and.

Melissa Lee (32:36)

Yeah. All right, coming up, our next guest says investors expecting big rate cuts could be in some for in for some more disappointment this thesis and where he says you can still put your money to work right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. Nike on deck to report earnings on Tuesday. Shares of the sportswear giant down more than 10% this month and over 22% in a year. Nike said in its last report the tariffs will cost will up cost by about $1 billion this fiscal year. So what are we expecting from this report, Karen?

Karen Finerman (33:13)

Well, a lot of things. You know, they've been working on sort of unwinding that DTC strategy from the prior going to say administration CEO and really getting back to having the wholesalers like a dick. Su now on Sporting, who owns Foot Locker. So that's a big wholesaler for them. They also want to be back in performance. The stock's expensive here. I do own it. I'm not expecting immediate fixes but we do need to see some progress on some of those fronts.

Tim Seymour (33:41)

Guy Nike skims being released today. I think I know September 26th. Well that's today.

Melissa Lee (33:47)

It says on this paper.

Tim Seymour (33:48)

Yeah, 26. Today's the 26 games. Oh my gosh, you're going to be looking good maybe right now Nike's not going to be looking good on these numbers, I can tell you that. In fact you're going to look at the comps and it's just about relative. But US comps are going to be down probably 5%. China is going to be down 13. Karen says it's not cheap. I am a shareholder although I'd like to add to this, I'm not sure this is time. I don't know that they've innovated enough to inflect that top line. That's what we're all wait to see.

Melissa Lee (34:14)

All right. Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for August in line with expectations Core PC holding at 2.9% on an annual basis. Our next guest though still thinks the Fed has an inflation problem. CNBC contributor Peter Bocvar is the chief investment officer at one point BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, good to see you. It seems sort of stuck and this sort of limits what the Fed can do because they still have to be vigilant on the inflation front. Correct.

Tim Seymour (34:39)

The biggest problem that lower to middle income consumers have is the cost of living. And with the 2.9% core PCE an effective fed funds right now at 4.08 and in the dot plot a long term 1% real rate. They're basically there. Give them one more cut and they're at that 1%. Now that means that if they're going to cut further from there, inflation has to decelerate or if the unemployment rate starts to rise and they say you know what a 1% real rate needs to be a half or zero. So this, I think the market got carried away with what the Fed's going to do under Jay Powell. Now once he leaves, you know, all bets are off and they can do anything. But at least through May of next year I see maybe 1 or 2 if inflation's still stuck at 3%.

Melissa Lee (35:23)

So just to extrapolate that, that would imply that there is a disconnect between market expectations and what the Fed can actually do given the situation they are in. And so therefore we are due for a pullback. I mean is that sort of the, I mean is that the bottom line here?

Tim Seymour (35:36)

Well, if you look at the two main factors for the stock market rally, the AI tech trade got a second wind and the Fed's going to cut. You have to buy stocks particularly small mid cap which played catch up. So I do think if there is going to be a reason for the pullback, it's the tech trade that's exhausting itself. I think Oracle was a Good example of that on that one day spike and it's down $50 cents and the realization that yeah, maybe we're and I refer to as a rate tweaking cycle rather than a rate cutting cycle.

Guy Adami (36:05)

I read you religiously. Beginning of the year you said the data this year is going to be lumpy, messy. It's not going to make a lot of sense to mention consumer spending was robust in August. In a word, the unemployment rate seemingly.

Marco Santori (36:17)

Going the wrong way.

Guy Adami (36:17)

I mean there's a lot of things here to parse through. But to your point about inflation, is the bond market back on its horse like it was last September?

Tim Seymour (36:25)

I think we have the early signs of it. But you also had this week you had multiple Fed members saying, hey, wait a second market. We're taking this meeting by meeting, maybe once, two tops. So I think there's an adjustment there. But yeah, 3% is much different than 2% inflation, especially when you compound that and what that means for interest rates across the curve.

Karen Finerman (36:47)

So where do you think real rates should be?

Tim Seymour (36:50)

Well, I'm always of the belief that interest rates should be above the rate of inflation. The Fed thinks the long term should be 1%. Pre great financial crisis, it used to be 2 to 300 basis points. So if you look at Steve Myron, he thinks they should go to zero right now. That's quite extreme. So I think we have a healthier economy when we have positive real rates. And right now it's about 1%. Ish.

Melissa Lee (37:16)

Peter, good to see you. Thank you. Have a good weekend. Peter. Bookbar. What do you think? Where are we?

Tim Seymour (37:21)

By the way, guys use the term lumpy. I've got bonus points for anyone who can tell me what show Lumpy Lumpy Rutherford was on.

Melissa Lee (37:27)

Leave it to Beaver.

Tim Seymour (37:29)

Amazing.

Melissa Lee (37:30)

So you talked about your know, okay.

Tim Seymour (37:35)

Actually maybe you don't want to call me anymore because I clearly don't remember anything maybe I had for breakfast. I agree with Peter and what's interesting is one of the calls that I think is a step or two away from this is a call on gold. Now I was reading Peter's notes and I think he likes silver more than gold. But the bottom line here is precious metals and industrial metals are going to continue to do well in this environment. Which means, means generally weaker dollar, generally a dynamic where the economy is not falling out at a bed. But again, the precious metals story is one that I think is in the fourth or fifth inning only.

Courtney Garcia (38:06)

Yeah, and I think the good news is we are seeing inflation come in with expectations and that people are still spending. We are continuing to see that the economy is generally strong. I think coming into this year, many more rate cuts were expected that are happening and the markets have continued to do well regardless. So even we're right here and rates don't come down as much as we expect. I actually do agree with that. I think there are still a lot of inflationary forces. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing for the equity markets. I think a lot of people are hoping for mortgage rate cuts, which would be good for the housing markets. Those probably are happening anytime soon. I know we've all talked about here.

Guy Adami (38:38)

Scrooged, that's what with Bill Murray. Yes, he was Lumpy, if you recall that as well.

Tim Seymour (38:44)

When did I bring up Lumpy Rutherford?

Guy Adami (38:46)

You've done it a number of times about it.

Tim Seymour (38:48)

It's such a great name.

Melissa Lee (38:49)

I remember.

Tim Seymour (38:49)

Well, I mean, can you blame me.

Marco Santori (38:50)

That Belton knew it?

Guy Adami (38:51)

I mean, it's like, come on.

Melissa Lee (38:53)

Is that it? All right, coming up, it's been a tough week for Solana, but our next guest is bullish as ever on the cryptocurrency. Soulmate CEO Marco Santori will join us for a look at the rise of digital asset treasuries right after this. Welcome back to fast money. Solana having a rough week, down about 15%. Digital asset treasury and crypto infrastructure company company Soulmate recently renaming itself to highlight its focus on Solana, raising $300 million from investors including Cathie Woods, Ark Invest. For more on the company's pivot and Solana's outlook, Soulmate CEO Marco Santori will join us now. He's a former Pantera Group general partner and chief legal officer at Kraken. Marco, great to have you with us.

Marco Santori (39:40)

Hey, thank you for having me.

Melissa Lee (39:42)

We've really seen such a rise in these digital asset treasury companies, firms like your former firm Pantera, trying to convert smaller companies that may be a medical device company, for instance, into a dat. And so give us the sort of reasoning, why should I buy a share in one of these dats like a Soulmate versus buying the actual coin.

Marco Santori (40:05)

Yeah, it's a great question. The difference is the management team and the company strategy. You can buy more SOL on day one if you just buy the SOL directly, for example. Example for Solana. But over time, treasury companies are calibrated to get you more sold per share. And after, say, a year, you're going to have more soul in a Treasury company, generally speaking, than you would have had had you bought that Soul just on your own. It's because the treasury company will stake it for you, Treasure. The treasury company like Soulmate will not only stake it, but also take those coins as you earn from staking and participate in defi with with them. Plus, Soulmate has a differentiating factor from any other stablecoin. Any other treasury company out there, I should say it's that we're standing up real infrastructure here in the uae. As you can see, I'm not in studio. I'm actually here in Abu Dhabi where it's quite late at night and you've got me, part of the management team working to actually generate more SOL per share than you could earn on your own.

Melissa Lee (41:08)

Does it matter what the underlying company does? Because, for instance, you know, I was talking to somebody from Pantera and they actually converted a medical device company into a digital digital asset treasury company and that medical device company will continue making that medical device. Does that matter? I mean, in this whole scheme of, of access to capital, do you actually need that sort of underlying business, even if it's completely unrelated, in order to better access capital?

Marco Santori (41:32)

It's a good question. I wouldn't say you need it. I think the underlying business is important because at the end of the day, what these treasury companies are doing is changing a Treasury strategy for an already public company. For Soulmate, we do have an underlying business. That company, that business primarily owns sports teams, but we're doing more in addition to that business here in the uae, we're standing up bare metal servers to run validators on Solana. They're going to process Solana transactions faster, more efficiently and more profitably than most other treasury companies who are just sending their soul to be staked on someone else's server, someone else's validators. We think that's a core part of our strategy and the fact that it's synergistic with our sole per share growth, which is our key metric, is going to drive that, we think, durably and on into the future, both in bear markets and bull markets.

Melissa Lee (42:26)

And last quick question. The premium between the company and the coin. Those premiums for DATs have been compressing of late. And I'm wondering, how much of a premium do you think a DAT should trade relative to the underlying coin?

Marco Santori (42:44)

I think a Treasury company should have an M NAV that corresponds directly to the value of the management team and the vision and strategy of that company. There are a lot of treasury companies out there who are simply going to buy SOL and then stake it and then use that. Use those proceeds to get more sol and stake that sol. We're not doing just that. At the end of the day, we also have an ongoing meaningful business running Solana Validators on our own metal that's going to generate more sold per share, we think than any other treasury company out there.

Melissa Lee (43:18)

All right, Marco, thanks for joining us. All the way from Abu Dhabi. It's like the middle of the night. So we do appreciate it. Fascinating to get a look into Soulmate. Marco Centauri so it's not just strategy anymore. We have a whole host, a whole crop of these companies.

Guy Adami (43:33)

Yeah, but Paul. Yes, a whole crop that is doing similar things. But strategy. Now strategy has not been trading particularly well. Now I get it, Bitcoin is off the all time highs from 121 down to 109. But it's not trading nearly as strategy is trading much more poorly than the underlying commodity or bitcoin, whatever it's linked to, which is problematic. It means the bloom might be coming off the rose here.

Melissa Lee (43:57)

All right, Coming up, another look at intel, up a whopping 50% in just two weeks. Has it come too far, too fast? How options traders are playing the chip maker. That's next. More fast money into. Welcome back to FAST money. As you mentioned earlier in the show, intel stock has been on a tear, notching back to back weeks of 20% gains. And options traders are betting we ain't seen nothing yet. Mike Koh joins us with the action. Hey, Mike.

Jared Holz (44:24)

Yeah.

Marco Santori (44:24)

Also on a terra is the Options volume over 4 million open interest on the call side. That's actually only one of three stocks that have that much open interest. It traded three times its average daily call volume today, over 1.6 million call contracts in total. And the busiest contract, excluding those that expired today are the October 40 calls. We saw over 80,000 of those trading for just under $1.30 a contract. And that was mostly institutional buyers. So some for folks obviously see that there might be still some potential upside even from here.

Melissa Lee (44:54)

What are the other two stocks, Mike?

Marco Santori (44:56)

Tesla and Nvidia. What else would they.

Melissa Lee (44:59)

Yeah, of course. It's just, it's staggering though that we've gotten to the point now where intel will command the attention that in video.

Guy Adami (45:08)

Does for I mean people playing the binary thing here going to be more headlines and take the stock to levels we probably haven't seen now in three or four years. Years. And I get it, it's probably I can't speak to the ball because I haven't looked. But it's one of these binary plays that people have done a lot of.

Marco Santori (45:22)

Winning on over the last six to nine months.

Melissa Lee (45:23)

It's a little meme ish. No, I mean the moves are kind of memeish.

Tim Seymour (45:27)

Well, it's meme ish, especially because the stories today felt mimish. This is a company that, as we said, was out there kind of passing the hat around, see if anyone wants to play. And, and, and I think there are a lot of people that may have to play. And ultimately it gets back to they do have a core business. The question is, is are they in a position from a balance sheet perspective to really get into the foundry business that they need to be in.

Melissa Lee (45:49)

Mike, thank you. Always great to see you. Mike Coe with options action. Up next, final trades, final trade time. Timothy.

Tim Seymour (46:05)

Oh boy. Boeing. I tell you what, let's get more deliveries. Let's get, get more cash flow. Lumpy, Rutherford, Karen.

Karen Finerman (46:11)

Okay, Tim, going away. Safe travels on your vacation.

Tim Seymour (46:15)

Thank you.

Karen Finerman (46:15)

Yes. My final trade, selling some upside. Citibank calls the 110October Courtney.

Courtney Garcia (46:22)

The equal weights actually been outperforming the market cap weighted. I would take a look at the RSP here. I think that trend could continue in 162 game season.

Guy Adami (46:32)

It comes down to three Tim in Florida. Actually, Tim is now going to call him Hutch. He wants to be known as Hutch going forward.

Tim Seymour (46:40)

Please.

Guy Adami (46:40)

So this is a big couple days for all of us. You know what? Malms Valero continues to go high.

Melissa Lee (46:46)

All right, thank you for watching Fast Money. Have a wonderful weekend. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

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