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CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fast Money 9/29/25
00:43:39
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
Hey, Fidelity, what's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app?
- [00:05]
Commercial Announcer
Start with as little as $1 with no account fees or trade commissions on U.S. stocks and ETFs.
- [00:11]
Karen Feiderman
Hmm.
- [00:12]
Melissa Lee
That's music to my ears.
- [00:14]
Commercial Announcer
I can only talk.
- [00:17]
Steve Grasso
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Zero account fees apply to retail brokerage accounts only. $0 commission applies to online US equity trades and ETFs and retail fidelity accounts. Sell order assessment fee not included. Some account types and securities excluded. Details@fidelity.com commissions Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC member NYSE SIPC.
- [00:32]
Commercial Announcer
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- [01:04]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. America or the mainland after big moves in US And China Tech, which group is a better bet heading into Q4? Would you rather battle royale coming up. Plus a brokerage boom. Shares of Robinhood hitting fresh record highs and climbing more than 400% over the past year. Where one Wall street analyst sees that stock heading next and later, sofas and streamers have the latest tariff threats are hitting furniture stocks and even Netflix Gold's rally keeps shining and the options action on Nike ahead of its results. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from studio. Be at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Steve Grasso, Karen Feiderman, Courtney Garcia and Gaia Dami. We start off with big moves in big tech here at home and halfway around the world. Nvidia, Micron and AMD among the biggest winners in the chip space as the air rip tries to get back on track. Data storage names like Sandisk, what Western Digital, Seagate surging today too. Meanwhile, China's stocks have been on a quite a tear this year. The K web jumping more than 2% today and nearly 45% since January led by Alibaba Baidu, JD and more. Year to date, the K web has more than doubled up the triple Q. So as we start to get ready for the Q4, we want to know it's Kind of an unconventional start to the show. But we will ask, would you rather be be in US Tech or China tech over the next six months? Guy down.
- [02:29]
Mike Kohler
Wow.
- [02:30]
Guy Adami
This is an. This is a first on Fast Money. It's unprecedented.
- [02:34]
Melissa Lee
Can you answer the question?
- [02:37]
Steve Grasso
You stall.
- [02:38]
Guy Adami
No, no, I'm thinking China. Yeah, absolutely. Well, I still think it's undervalued. I think valuations are so compelling. I mean, you mentioned K web. Throw up a K web chart over the last six years or so and you'll see. Yeah, we've had a bit of bearish to bullish reversal, but we're nowhere near where we are at its peak. Not suggesting we're getting there, but, you know, you look at these US Tech names, all, most of them, at least, we talk about extended valuations. These stocks have been under the. They've been in the penalty box for quite some time. They're just getting out now. And valuation is still compelling. So Chinese stocks, we see a Chinese.
- [03:10]
Melissa Lee
Government very supportive of its own tech industry at this point, as opposed to back when we were wondering what happened to Jack Ma. I mean, it's a very different environment for some of these homegrown companies.
- [03:21]
Karen Feiderman
However, the valuation has changed a lot. A lot, a lot. Especially, I mean, even the last month, the valuation has changed enormously. So I think a few weeks ago, we looked at Alibaba taking out the cash, which is very substantial. It traded about 16, 17 times earnings. It's now 23 4.
- [03:39]
Melissa Lee
Okay.
- [03:40]
Karen Feiderman
And Amazon is maybe 33 4. So I get that at the moment, these companies are seen as the darlings. Right. And in the air race, China wants to have absolutely right, great entrants. And Alibaba, of course, would be one of them. However, there is still, you know, all the things that we go to the US For. Right. Exceptionalism, rule of law, some of those things have been a little bit battered, but nonetheless, they're still there. So to me, the way I'm set up, I do. You know, I like Alibaba, I have FXI Kweb. But I do still think, given the run that they've had, that I would rather be in US Than China.
- [04:22]
Melissa Lee
Right. The rule of law I get. But in terms of exceptionalism, we are setting up in a world where there seems to be two parallel universes going on when it comes to technology. An AI for the Western world and an AI for the rest of the world. And so in that environment, does exceptionalism apply, or are we sort of thinking in this other AI world outside the United States, China, Asia in particular, Is Alibaba the way to go? And is that valuation gap it does that not address the fact that it might be the Amazon of that world?
- [04:57]
Steve Grasso
Right. I would stick with Alibaba has been a tremendous performer. I think it's in Guy's acronym, so he's blown the COVID off.
- [05:04]
Mike Kohler
It is right.
- [05:05]
Guy Adami
Tube.
- [05:06]
Steve Grasso
It is in tube.
- [05:07]
Guy Adami
It's an A in yours, it's a B in mine.
- [05:09]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [05:09]
Guy Adami
We play the game.
- [05:11]
Melissa Lee
So.
- [05:12]
Steve Grasso
So that one has had an incredible run, but you also have, to Karen's point, you also have trade. So the deadline for China US trade is November 11th. A huge wild card. These stocks have already run to a large extent into that or with a hopeful outcome. So for the next six months, if that trade deadline is not met and it doesn't look great, these stocks can retrace valuation. Alibaba Extended jd, not Baidu, not. So it depends on where you go. You got to be selective. I wouldn't be buying.
- [05:44]
Melissa Lee
Why are the other two not extended ended?
- [05:46]
Steve Grasso
Because I think Alibaba has been the. The way to play AI. And the other is, although they have AI, it's not a major tailwind as far as the investor so far. But Baidu, that's your autonomous drive. That is the reason why I have Lyft over Uber, because Lyft can, can rise a lot more. They're partnering with Baidu, but so is Uber. So you have two people that are pushing Baidu's autonomous drive. JD is sort of a lost leader. Not sure I don't have tremendous feel on that. But if China does move and we get that, we get that trade policy, more clarity, then I think everything China related is going to run. Alibaba's already ran, so it has the risk of coming back if it disappoints on the trade front.
- [06:32]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, I actually would take the Chinese technology trade over the US Trade right now mainly because of valuation. Like, despite the fact that it is way outperformed this year, which is most people don't realize all of our clients we talk to have no idea how much Europe and emerging markets have way outperformed the US and China tech specifically is up like 45% this year, despite the S and P is up like 16% or so. But even with that, it's still a better valuation than your US Tech companies. And one thing to add on top of this is if the dollar keeps weakening, which is. Has been, that has actually been a boost for your foreign companies. And if that continues, that's why I would probably take foreign over The US in that, in that environment.
- [07:11]
Melissa Lee
Interesting. So Karen, I go back to you then.
- [07:14]
Steve Grasso
She's pushing you. I feel like she's selling you on this.
- [07:16]
Melissa Lee
No, I'm not. I'm not that. My job is not to sell anybody on anything.
- [07:20]
Mike Kohler
Right.
- [07:21]
Steve Grasso
But except for tonight.
- [07:24]
Melissa Lee
No. What I'm curious, you know, how much of a premium should an Amazon have versus an Alibaba which is dual listed and so they do have to conform to listing standards here. So if the concern is rule of law and things like that and visibility into earnings, it's not so much.
- [07:39]
Karen Feiderman
Let me just first say one thing. I do think Melissa would be an extraordinary investor. I've always thought that. But to move on to the question, it's not about the listing. It's about a, you know, we have a democratic society here. They do not. And if there is some change or some policy or some something or, you know, Xi Jinping and Trump are fighting it out and they say, all right, you know what, we'll threaten to take all, we'll remove our listing. Who knows what that is A level that. There it is. I can't quantify what that penalty should be on the valuation, but I do know that the valuation has moved substantially higher while Amazon and I pick Baba because Baba is the Amazon.
- [08:25]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [08:26]
Karen Feiderman
I pick Amazon rather for Baba because they really, right. They have a big retail business, they have an AI business. They have, I guess they're both logistical, I don't know, juggernauts. And I just think that differential is too small now to make Baba the better.
- [08:43]
Steve Grasso
One fine point for me, if we do enter a rate cutting environment where it's more static going forward, then it's a layup for US Tech, then my.
- [08:54]
Melissa Lee
Choice is we are going into a rate cutting environment.
- [08:56]
Steve Grasso
Is it going to be static, is it going to be regular or is it going to be case by case, meeting by meeting? So that's why you see the market sort of pull back. Is it going to be a quarter point at every meeting or a quarter point every other or a quarter and done fair?
- [09:08]
Melissa Lee
I mean, I think that we raised the question tonight because it underscores this question about the valuation of US Tech. So whether it be US Check or China tech, it is the question is US Tech still at this point, at these valuations, at this point in the cycle, at this point of where the markets are valued, what's your answer?
- [09:27]
Guy Adami
I think they're more expensive. Well, I think they are more expensive. I think you can look at and say, you know what? Just on A valuation basis, they're more expensive. Now, to Karen's point, maybe they're justifiably more expensive for all the reasons she laid out, but on some of the other reasons she talked about, I mean, Alibaba has been in the penalty box since Halloween of 2020. I mean, if you look at the. A tremendous. That was a Jock Jack Ma announcement I think, way back when. And it never crawled itself back out until recently and recently over the last six months. So there's a lot of ground to make up just on the valuation part of this, of the equation, I think.
- [09:59]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Where do you stand in terms of US tech valuations at this point?
- [10:03]
Courtney Garcia
You know, I think they're getting expensive. However, it's not to say it can't continue to run. I mean, we've seen this many times. We're nowhere near the valuations you were.
- [10:10]
Melissa Lee
Like before the tech bubble.
- [10:11]
Courtney Garcia
So it's not to say that you should get out of that trade. Yes, it's getting expensive. I think it has room to run in the real world. We don't actually have to choose one or the other. You can't own both of these. Which we should.
- [10:20]
Melissa Lee
Thanks for highlighting that. Our game is really built on a false premise, but otherwise great.
- [10:25]
Courtney Garcia
But, you know, I think what you do like here is a lot. Lose my train of thought here, but you want to go with both of these. You want to make sure you have the valuations and they're really underinvested. Investors tend to be much more focused in the US and this is both retail investors and institutional investors, especially when you look at the amount of GDP that is coming from abroad. So I just think you want. You don't want to lose focus. That's a trade you should be in.
- [10:48]
Karen Feiderman
So just to. We talk about a monolith of tech, but it's not sure. Right. There's the trade, which I have grown increasingly concerned about and have reduced my exposure collars. And Nvidia put spreads, Oracle put spreads. Even short core weave. Now, it's not a. It's not a commentary so much on core weave, just that it's sort of the poster child for data center growth. I feel like I know that will grow over time, but that doesn't mean the valuations right now are where they should be. And I think we. I mean, it just seems bubblicious to me.
- [11:20]
Melissa Lee
Very. Okay, let's dive deeper into the tech trade and the rest of the market now. Let's bring in Stuart Kaiser of Citi. Stuart, great to see you. I Don't know if you want to answer or would you rather question US Tech or China tech?
- [11:31]
Guy Adami
Yeah, he should be involved in that.
- [11:33]
Melissa Lee
But I mean we want to get at this notion of should we be concerned about the valuation of the American air trade at this point as far.
- [11:41]
Mike Kohler
As China US I mean if you told me one to three months I can be comfortable being in China. You do have some big catalysts coming up at the end of October that you would soon would be supportive. But, but to point I think six months out a little bit too much uncertainty for me to really want to engage in China tech to the long side to be valuations. If all you're coming to me with is valuation, that that's really a tough sell to me. You do have some catalysts at the end of October though and I would like some like tactical exposure to that just in case.
- [12:05]
Melissa Lee
Right. In terms of the build out of US tech and data centers, are we getting into that period where we are looking bubblicious? I mean it strikes me that just in the past couple, you know, couple of days, week or so on the street there have been a couple of notes saying are we in a bubble territory? I mean like when I see that, that sort of parade of stuff coming into my inbox and I'm thinking wow, people are really, really thinking about this.
- [12:26]
Mike Kohler
Yeah, the question is definitely coming up. I think power gen and that trade is probably the thing we have the most confidence in frankly from, from a Sharpe ratio perspective to be fair though. Yeah. I mean there is a lot price now people are, I don't want to say over their skis but it's, it's a pretty aggressive trade and I think I would last time I was on was when Oracle reported right. And the conversation there was great revenue forecast. They're not going to be able to find the chips and the energy to actually get there. So it's tough. I mean the tactical valuation might look high but if you believe that narrative then you're probably earlier innings in that trade than, than you previously thought. So you have a Power gen is a, is a theme. We're still pretty pretty strongly behind shifting gears.
- [13:01]
Guy Adami
We've learned to discount government shutdowns but it for some reason it just feels like people are more dug in this time, listen this time tomorrow at all be done but concerns around it and what does it mean if it gets through the week, we miss a payroll, those types of things. The market moving, you know, not too.
- [13:18]
Mike Kohler
Concerned about it yet. I think this thing would have to last. Let's say beyond a week or two or you'd have to see the long, long end of the bond yield curve, kind of respond to it. Otherwise, you know, not too concerned about it right now. If it wasn't for a payrolls report on Friday, we probably wouldn't be talking about it, to be honest with you. So yeah, tactically, not, not too concerned right now. It would have to be something that I would say went beyond two weeks to really get our attention.
- [13:39]
Steve Grasso
Stuart, when you, when you talk about high quality stocks, usually people think about high quality stocks. They think the mega cap tech stocks. How much have you strayed out of mega cap tech to include high quality stocks and what are they?
- [13:52]
Mike Kohler
Yeah, high quality stocks, definitely something we like being in. To your point, five out of the mag seven, which green kind of high quality in our framework, which to us is comforting. We can tell you to be in quality, but you don't have to go like totally away from that. What else is in there? You know, the JP Morgan to the world, they're in there a lot. A lot of the large cap financials would fall in there. There's a few, not too much health care, not too much staples. But you do have a lot of tech and financials I think would be the two biggest exposures. We do like that trade mostly because of the uncertainty around the labor market. But it's also nice that you have some Mag 7 exposure too. So get that, you know, two birds at one stone, so to speak.
- [14:25]
Karen Feiderman
So you just said something about the long end of the bond market. Are you saying in a shutdown that the long yields would be higher or lower in the long end?
- [14:32]
Mike Kohler
I think I would be worried about a shutdown if it got the long end bond yields higher. So if people started to really like talk about, you know, unreliability of government or fiscal, fiscal deficits and stuff like that, I don't think we're there. But my point is for the, for the shutdown to matter, you kind of have to trigger that type of discussion.
- [14:50]
Melissa Lee
Well, that has sparked downgrades in the past or at least, you know, moving, you know, not maybe not full fledged downgrades, but credit revisions in terms of outlooks. Is that, I mean, is that a concern? Does that come back into play with, with this sort of shutdown?
- [15:05]
Mike Kohler
I mean, I don't think we're there yet. I mean the big one would have been 2011. Back in 2011, the S&P traded 11 times forward earnings. Just for reference. I don't think we're anywhere Close to getting to that. But look, you've seen two or three times in the last month you had, you know, UK 30 year bond yields moved right after Labor Day. It got the equity markets attention. The same thing happened with JGBS over the summer. So I don't think we're there but I think for an equity investor either you're shut down for an extended period of time or the bond market is going to have to like, you know, pokey with a sharp stick and say you should care about this. And I don't think we're quite there yet.
- [15:35]
Melissa Lee
And are you seeing any rotation out? I mean lessening exposure to tech and moving elsewhere as we head into year end?
- [15:41]
Mike Kohler
You know you saw, you saw that in late August. But if you look at September month to date, the S and P has actually outperformed the Russell and we've kind of come back to that. I think what's been interesting is S and P outperforming and Russell outperforming. The, the S and P equal weight is lagging a lot. So it's like the belly of the market is kind of under pressure where people want to have tech on. They're trying to play this catch up trade in small cap but we haven't seen the kind of the broadening within the S and P. So look a little bit here and there but I mean the fact is the trades are still working. Look at Mag7 this month I think is already up 7.7% or something like that.
- [16:11]
Melissa Lee
That catch up in small caps that's still on.
- [16:14]
Mike Kohler
It's, it's, it's losing, it's losing a little steam. I mean you know about 80% of that catch up trade was valuation driven. I think now where you are with a weakening labor market and now it's kind of a show me like are we going actually see some broadening out of earnings? Because we've done a lot of the work on the valuation side already. It does feel like it's running out of steam a little bit. We've even seen profitable small cap outperforming, unprofitable. Which tells you even in that area people want to be kind of safe in terms of what they're buying.
- [16:39]
Melissa Lee
All right, Stuart, thanks for coming by. Always good to see you. Stuart kaiser.
- [16:42]
Guy Adami
Yeah, the IWM small caps 240. If you're looking at the IWM 245 to 250, the level that we topped out in November of 2021, we got close. Are we about to break through it or about to fail. I mean, that's really the, that's the rub right now. If you think the economy is slowing down despite what the GDP print was, it's hard to get your arms around small caps. A lot of people don't think it's playing catch up. I'm not one of those people.
- [17:04]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, sure. I was talking about the overlap of high quality and big cap tech. I feel like that's where a lot of your portfolio is. Yes, right. That sort of overlap.
- [17:13]
Karen Feiderman
I mean, you talk JP Morgan and then a lot of Mag 7, not Apple, but, or Microsoft, but the rest of the Mag 7. And I feel comfortable there. I do feel like valuations are a little bit stretched, though.
- [17:25]
Melissa Lee
All right, we've got some breaking news on YouTube. Eamon Jabbers got the details. Eamon?
- [17:30]
Guy Adami
Melissa, that's right. YouTube, which is owned by parent company Alphabet, is agreeing in court papers to settle a lawsuit by President Trump over their suspension of his YouTube channel in the wake of January 6th. YouTube agreeing to pay 24.5 million as part of this settlement. The lion's share of that is going to go to Trump, but a small portion will go to conservative groups that were involved in the lawsuit process. So yet another settlement here by a large media or tech company related to lawsuits filed by President Trump. And clearly a decision by Alphabet and YouTube that in this political moment, this was the option they needed to take based up, based on both the facts of the case and also the politics of the moment that we're in right now. Guys, back over here.
- [18:18]
Melissa Lee
Basically, that's pocket change for Google. Eamon, thank you. Amen. Jabbers. And we do want to get to more breaking news out of Washington. President Trump just finishing his meeting with congressional leaders. The stalemate and standoff between the Republicans and Democrats continues. The clock is ticking on a government shutdown. Emily Wilkins got the latest. Emily?
- [18:36]
Emily Wilkins
Yeah, Melissa. The big question for this meeting is if we were going to see a breakthrough or not. And the answer, in short, is no. Leaders from both Democrats and Republicans came out. They're still kind of pointing the finger at the other one for any potential shutdown that happens. Leader Chuck Schumer said that they were still very far apart in where the Democrats were standing versus where Republicans were standing. Obviously, Democrats asking for certain things when it comes to health care. An extension of those Affordable Care act premium tax credits credits. But when they came out, Republicans said, look, this is going to be on Democrats shoulders if we see a shutdown begin tomorrow night. And Vice President J.D. vance was particularly pessimistic Listen to what he said.
- [19:17]
Commercial Announcer
I think we're headed to a shutdown.
- [19:19]
Steve Grasso
Because the Democrats won't do the right thing.
- [19:20]
Guy Adami
I hope they change their mind.
- [19:22]
Melissa Lee
But we're going to see.
- [19:25]
Emily Wilkins
Melissa. Of course, as you guys have been mentioning, the impacts of a shutdown is going to depend in part of how long it lasts. I mean, if it goes till Friday, you're not going to see job numbers. If it goes further, that's going to impact back the collection of other data as well as really hundreds of government programs that are either not going to be funded or have reduced funding. We're going to be caught watching very closely as Republicans now return to Washington, D.C. if they think there could be any sort of last minute breakthrough. But unlike what we saw in March, unlike we saw last year, both sides really do seem to be dug in and there is not the kind of horse trading and negotiation that's normally happening at this point to avoid a shutdown. Melissa?
- [20:03]
Melissa Lee
Emily, how about the threats of job cuts?
- [20:08]
Emily Wilkins
In terms of job cuts, I mean, look, if the job numbers do wind up coming out, sorry, job cuts in terms of the federal government, that is a huge consideration that's being hung over. Thank you. That's a huge consideration that's really hanging over Democrats heads right now. There is a lot of nervousness about what Roosevelt, the Trump administration and OMB might do in terms of cuts. I mean, the last time you had a full government shutdown, you saw 850,000 employees be furloughed. Now it's not likely that all of them would be laid off. The Trump administration has already said those agencies that are in line with Trump's priorities would not be fired and would remain. But of course, that could mean huge cuts to a number of departments, a number of initiatives. But at this point, at least for Schumer and for Jefferies, the two Democratic leaders, they're saying, look, if they wanted to fire those folks, they could have done it already. They're saying it's an intimidation tactic. And at this point it doesn't seem like Republicans are going to get the Democratic votes they need to get to that 60 threshold and pass a stopgap.
- [21:07]
Melissa Lee
Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins live from Capitol Hill for us. So it looks like we're heading down that path.
- [21:12]
Guy Adami
Yeah. I mean what do we have, 24, whatever it is, 36 hours left or so? I mean, again, I think we just talked about with Stewart, it's a bond market thing. I mean if this lasts, if it happens in it last, bond market sells off, maybe that's market destructive. But short of that, I mean, we've gone up right up to the 11th hour before and we've, we've circumvented whatever my instincts are, the same thing will happen again tomorrow.
- [21:34]
Steve Grasso
From 2018 to 2019, December to January were shut down for 35 days. During that time period, the market sold off 13% in preparation of the shutdown. Then it actually rallied back to positive over those 35 days. And then a year out, the market was up 24%. So I have a hard time getting excited about shutdowns. I'd rather let the dust settle before I start to make choices on my portfolio based on a couple of days.
- [22:03]
Courtney Garcia
And that's not Even just the 2018 shutdown, the last like six shutdowns you've seen. I mean, the markets have actually reacted positively, more than negatively. And I don't think it's that markets like shutdowns. I think they're just willing to look through it and realize that this is more of a political event than a market event. And so I think that's something we don't want to shut down for many reasons, but it's not for the stock markets. That really, I think is going to be a completely separate reaction.
- [22:23]
Melissa Lee
There are specific sector implications. I mean, the travel industry is supposedly a billion dollars in terms of a hit. For every week that the government is shut down, retail will probably feel some sort of impact. All those workers not getting a paycheck, that has to have some sort of impact on their spending.
- [22:38]
Karen Feiderman
Yes, but the market is a forward looking mechanism. And if it's looking forward six months, let's say, which might be the average time frame, there has never been a shutdown that six months from now is still in effect. So now that we've all agreed, we're all looking through it for.
- [22:52]
Steve Grasso
It's going to happen, it's going to happen.
- [22:53]
Melissa Lee
There's going to be an impact. Well, we'll see. All right, coming up, the Trump tariff effect. How furniture stocks and even Netflix are feeling the pain from the latest tariff threats. That's next. Plus, a shining rally as gold hits yet another all time high. The miners coming along for the ride and how the metal moves have boosted the U.S. reserve. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back in two.
- [23:14]
Commercial Announcer
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- [25:00]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. President Trump posting on Truth Social this morning that he will impose tariffs on any country that does not make furniture in the U.S. he also posted he will plan to place a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the United States, saying the film business has been stolen from America. The Truth Post sending shares of furniture makers in Williams Sonoma RH lower. Netflix closed down lower as well. Interesting because it feels like we are just going down on the same sorts of headlines. The furniture makers tariffs again. RH is down again. William Snow is down again. What do you make of this court?
- [25:34]
Courtney Garcia
You know I think it's interesting that the furniture makers are down much more so than in Netflix is on this news which is much more substantial. Like you know exactly how much you're importing. There is a direct good that you can tariff as it becomes a lot more murky when you're talking about movies and the licensing and what's streaming versus what's a movie. So I think that's where when you're looking at Netflix actually less of an impact because even if this does go through, that's the big question is how much of this is like bark versus Bite. We don't know. But I think the furniture stores are going to have more of an impact if these go through than something like a Netflix. So we have to actually see what happens with these. But I think that's been a reaction so far.
- [26:07]
Guy Adami
EBank had a note out saying restoration Hardware, most at risk, followed by Williams Sonoma. I think they had Wayfair in there as well. Personally, I look at Williams Sonoma, it's actually hanging in pretty well, I think. I mean, I think the all time high was 220ish in January. Obviously we're down about 192 now, but it's not terrible yet. Valuation is not a concern. But again, if this is going to be in the spotlight, you got to be careful. Down about 175. But I wouldn't run too far away from these names on the back of that headline.
- [26:34]
Melissa Lee
You also have to wonder, you know, if they can cut deals like the drug industry has in terms of. Ok, so there will be a plant here and it will make coasters and then all the rest are going to source from China. But we do manufacture something in the United States and so we will evade some tariffs here. There's a lot of unknowns, basically.
- [26:51]
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, there's a lot of unknowns. Wayfair sort of hung in better. Right. The movie thing really I was sort of very confused about. Let's say you're a Netflix subscriber and they have a movie that was shot somewhere in Italy and in the us how do you tariff that?
- [27:08]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [27:08]
Karen Feiderman
Well, I. Do you tariff it if you purchase the. If you, if you have a subscription, how do you allocate to the movie? Is it. If you go to the theater? I don't know. This one might fall by the wayside because it's more vague than some of the other.
- [27:22]
Melissa Lee
Right, right.
- [27:23]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I agree with that. 51%. You can see how much a percentage of Netflix's content budget is allocated for international. But to Karen's point, there's no way to see how much of that was here, how much that was there. So. So I don't think it's going to have a tremendous effect on Netflix. Stock Guy talked about technicals. Talk about levels. Restoration hardware is at a three or five year low. I like that point of entry on the stock specifically, even if the tariffs will have a lot more bite.
- [27:52]
Melissa Lee
But for, for Netflix, I mean, if you think about the catalog and how much they've sourced internationally in terms of films made for another audience that are then. Then brought here and purchased or licensed that I could see getting a tariff and that would be a big hit.
- [28:06]
Karen Feiderman
Okay, so let's say Squid Games, for example.
- [28:08]
Melissa Lee
Yes, exactly.
- [28:09]
Karen Feiderman
Okay, so you have a Netflix subscription and you choose to watch Squid games. Do you get a tariff bump? How much are you paying for Squid Games?
- [28:17]
Melissa Lee
I would think that Netflix would probably end up eating that tariff in order to license it or whatever the agreement is to bring Squid Games and put it on their platform. But I mean, obviously we're speculating completely, which is maybe why it didn't really move. Anyway, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [28:38]
Commercial Announcer
Going Gold the yellow metals record rally keeps shining, fueling a surge in miners and a record value for the US reserve. The next metal move ahead. Plus checking out with ChatGPT, the OpenAI announcement, boosting shares of Etsy and Shopify, and how your next online purchase could.
- [28:59]
Steve Grasso
Look a little different.
- [29:00]
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- [29:44]
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- [30:02]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money Gold's rally shining even brighter. The precious metal hitting a fresh all time high today as the US Dollar continues to weaken. Gold miners also climbing. The GDX up 20% over the past month and riding an eight week winning streak. All these moves coming as the US Gold Reserve surpasses more than $1 trillion in value.
- [30:22]
Guy Adami
Yeah, we'll shelve that for a second. But you know the dollar's lost. It's been the worst year for the dollar since 1973. Dollars lost 95% of its value since 1935. I mean, this has been happening now. People are starting to pay attention to it. But that's not really the only Story behind gold. Central banks have been hoarding it. The Chinese have been buying it. The last four years, we've seen record amount of gold purchases by central banks year over year, every single year. Central banks now own more gold than they do treasuries. What does it tell you? Well, obviously the miners have caught a bid finally, and they're playing catch up, but I just don't think the gold trade is over. Obviously, there's something out there that can derail it. I don't know what that is, but the bull case out there is still alive and well, in my opinion.
- [31:05]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. You said you wanted to shelve the treasury.
- [31:09]
Guy Adami
Well, I know we own. You know my problem with. Yes, I want to shelve it for a second because, you know, there is gold in Fort Knox. It's just a question of how many times has that gold been sold. It's not whether or not it's there. I guarantee it's there. It's how many times it's been sold and levered. That's the question that people should be asking, which is why you got to be careful with putting valuations on the back of this.
- [31:31]
Melissa Lee
Well, that's interesting. I know we are all saying it's not mark to market, so the, you know, what it's there for. It was what, $42 an ounce back in 1973. And so that's what technically the gold there is valued. Even though a market value would be, you know, in excess of $1 trillion, it's.
- [31:47]
Steve Grasso
Its value, to your point, is 11 billion versus 1 trillion. So that's a huge gaping hole and we haven't put it on the USA's books. But getting back to the actual trade. GLD versus GDX. GDX, the miners usually outperform and underperform by 3 to 1. You're finally seeing that in the price right now. So gdx, because they have control over whether they want to mine or not, gold is just the metal.
- [32:12]
Melissa Lee
Mm.
- [32:12]
Steve Grasso
So if you think this goes higher, which I think it's probably unanimous, that gold does move higher, and it's moved higher pretty effectively, I think you'd want to be buying half gdx, a half gld, or take physical gold. You got the room in your house, right?
- [32:28]
Melissa Lee
A whole room just for.
- [32:29]
Steve Grasso
Just for the gold room.
- [32:30]
Melissa Lee
The gold, obviously. Are you getting a lot of inquiries about gold?
- [32:33]
Courtney Garcia
A ton. I mean, I think this is really like longer term, not been a great investment. Sort of last like decade into gold has done a whole lot of nothing, but suddenly it's only the thing that people want to talk about right now. But I do think you want to have it as a hedge against inflation, especially if you go into a government shutdown. As much as we're saying that doesn't affect the stock markets. You can get people flocking to things like gold when that happens, especially in the short term. So I do want it as a piece of my portfolio long term. It doesn't always do as well as it did this year, so you know, it's only something that I buy sparingly.
- [33:02]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, An AI boost to E Commerce Stocks why Etsy and Shopify are jumping thanks to a new chat GPT4 feature the details when Fast Money returns.
- [33:16]
Commercial Announcer
Moment of Fast Catch us anytime on the Go Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [33:34]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks kicking off the week in the green with just one trading day left in the quarter. The Dow up 68 points, the S&P 500 up a quarter of a percent and the Nasdaq leading the gains up nearly half a percent. Shares of Novo Nordisk slightly lower. Analysts at Morgan Stanley downgrading the stock to an underweight from equal weight, lowering the price target to 47. That's down from 59, citing slower US GLP1 prescription growth and competitive pressure and a massive move in cannabis stocks. President Trump endorsing the use of CBD for senior health care, which follows past comments that his administration would look to reclassify or declassify marijuana and Tesla in the green. The stock up nearly 33% in September, on pace for its best month since November of 2024 as EV sales surge, with potential drivers racing in to buy or lease before the 70$500 federal tax credit expires. Now to AI acting as a personal shopper of sorts. Shares of Etsy and Shopify popping after OpenAI announced a partnership with Etsy surging almost 16% today shop up over 6%. CNBC's MacKenzie Segalis has got all the details. Mac we want to know how this is going to work.
- [34:41]
Emily Wilkins
So Mel, this is a major test of Agent E Commerce at scale because this feature instant checkout. It lets US buyers buy directly through ChatGPT, starting with Etsy and soon Shopify. That means no links, no new tabs, you just tap buy in the middle of a conversation and your order goes through. And the idea is to let Chat CBT act like an autonomous assistant that doesn't just recommend products, it completes the whole transaction for you. Now that vision helped send Etsy shares soaring today they are on track for their best day in almost three years. And OpenAI says that this is just the beginning. They are open sourcing the agent tech so that other merchants and developers can build their own in chat checkout experiences as well. And Mel, this launch puts OpenAI in direct competition with Google, Amazon, even Perplexity, all racing to control the future of E commerce because ultimately if more shopping starts inside of these chatbots, it is a real power shift in terms of who owns product discovery.
- [35:37]
Melissa Lee
OpenAI gets paid, correct? MacKenzie, a percentage of the transactions is it disclosed to the user that they are getting paid? Because it seems to me the equivalent of a sponsored ad or an ad vertisement of some sort. And if there's no disclosure that seems like that would be wrong, that be a violation of antitrust of some sort.
- [35:56]
Emily Wilkins
Right. So yes, OpenAI will take a cut of transactions completed through chat CBT essentially a referral fee. Now this is something that Sam Altman has said that he's looking to is a key monetization strategy for Open Air. He talked about 2% affiliate fees. But the key caveat here and to your larger point, he said that this wouldn't be something where you can pay for better ranking. It would still remain completely native to the search algorithm that they have in place that wouldn't impact what shows up in search results.
- [36:26]
Melissa Lee
Okay Mackenzie, thank you. Mackenzie Segalos. It seems like it might influence how an algorithm is built in the long run, but let's put that maybe.
- [36:35]
Karen Feiderman
But that already happens, right? So I guess shoppers are used to that. I was sort of surprised. I have been a unhappy shareholder of Etsy for a little while until today when I sold it on this run. There was a couple of things I thought were interesting that didn't end up being catalysts which were Elliot taking a 5 million share stake. That was one there was the end of the de minimis shipping. Right. That I thought would be a real big boost to Etsy. None of that happened and looked at it today this was, it was up so much on big, you know this news which I did went through the little program I didn't think it was sort of the be all end all didn't notice short interest now up at 21% so I said goodbye.
- [37:17]
Melissa Lee
All right. Seems like, I mean as much as you can remove the friction from any transaction make it a lot easier the better for both parties. OpenAI as well as a Shop or an Etsy.
- [37:26]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah and I think we're looking at Shopify and Etsy which would be the beneficiaries of this. But I think also the question is who hurts from this? Which the first one that comes to mind would be like a Pinterest. That's where you go and you're shopping for things and they are going to show you the things that you can actually buy. And that's been a really big benefit to their business that you can actually shop directly on Pinterest as opposed to having to go to the other places. They were down a little bit today. I don't know if that's on this news and it's probably, probably too soon to say. But I do think this can start to eat away at some other business models which will be interesting to watch.
- [37:54]
Steve Grasso
You know, when you look at it to Karen's point, I think she was smart to sell it on this pop. When you look at gross merchandise sales recently they were down 5%. You look at Shopify recently they were up 31% revenue. Shopify in the first quarter was up 29%. Revenue is probably stayed pretty static. Margins for Etsy, 70% net profit margin 5.8%. So that's a big dislocation there. So if you're looking at this being a tailwind going forward, I think it's more Shopify. Shopify does not have the short interest that Karen mentioned on Etsy. That's why it's up a lot more than Shopify. I would stay in Shopify.
- [38:35]
Guy Adami
You can't back out 2021 when Etsy went ballistic. But if you, if you were to play that game, it's been a $75 stock stock seemingly forever. So this is sort of the upper end of the range. And even with this move, you look at some of these analysts price targets, a lot of them in the mid-50s to low 60s. So I think Karen did the right thing here.
- [38:54]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. But in terms of being like the next generation of the next step in sort of how AI could actually be used and commercialized and monetized. This is a great example of still the applications to come in in the commerce world.
- [39:08]
Karen Feiderman
Yeah. So I would think this would be quickly. We would find this used but also competition for offering this very quickly.
- [39:15]
Melissa Lee
Exactly, yeah. Coming up, Robinhood rockets higher shares hit fresh all time highs. The next move in that name and how today's crypto comeback is boosting shares of Coinbase when Fast Money returns back into.
- [39:31]
Commercial Announcer
December 11th. Join Melissa Lee and the team of traders in New York City for an all access celebration live and on air. Fast Money live trading the holidays get your tickets now@cnbc events.com fastmoney welcome back to Fast Money.
- [39:51]
Melissa Lee
Robinhood jumping more than 12% today. Leading the S and P hitting a fresh all time high. CEO and co founder Vlad Teneff posting on X. Robinhood prediction markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all time with over 2 billion in Q3 alone. Coinbase also jumping higher and reports BlackRock moved hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Etherium and Bitcoin into the crypto brokers Coinbase prime platform signaling strong institutional positioning. Shares of coinbase gaining nearly 7% today. But this predictions market big, big, especially with football.
- [40:24]
Guy Adami
We've said it for a while. I mean Danny Moses has been talking about this and look good for Robinhood. Absolutely. I mean they turned what was seemingly a business that was floundering into an extraordinary business. The question is, do the valuations make sense? Market cap alone, I think it's $120 billion company now, which is probably $30 billion more than CME is currently trading for which I don't necessarily think it's justified. Not to suggest that, you know, maybe $100 billion, but that gap should be a lot closer. So good for Robinhood. Too expensive.
- [40:54]
Melissa Lee
I think at these levels the metrics are interesting. I read a Piper note that said it expects hood to report two and a half billion event contracts traded in the third quarter at $0.01 per contract. So that's what they. I mean but that's $25 million in revenue for that quarter and then you multiply that by four and you think that oh, it's going to catch on in different parts of the year.
- [41:17]
Karen Feiderman
And what's the multiple on the hundred million dollars And I don't know, is it this multiple?
- [41:22]
Melissa Lee
Is it the high?
- [41:23]
Karen Feiderman
It was 71. I don't know.
- [41:25]
Steve Grasso
They keep inventing businesses and that's what I think is really impressive with. God. Finish your thought.
- [41:31]
Karen Feiderman
Well, I was just going to say also didn't hurt that Bitcoin was up very nicely.
- [41:35]
Melissa Lee
Yes.
- [41:35]
Karen Feiderman
Both Coinbase and Hood and I think.
- [41:37]
Steve Grasso
There was a regulatory meeting going on today where instead of through enforcement, it's more due through regular regulatory methods. Now you have a friendly sec, so this is going to be a lot more accepted. Crypto had a terrible into that options expiration. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum had terrible performance. But I think the back half of the year dramatically higher which means that Hood can trade dramatically higher.
- [42:00]
Courtney Garcia
I do think what will be interesting to see is how consistent is that revenue source.
- [42:03]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [42:04]
Courtney Garcia
Because I think what you have seen with Robinhood previously is like there's a lot of trading activity when markets are doing well. People pull back a lot when they're not doing well. That could have the same thing with the betting markets and a lot of their user base is your like younger generations which is a good and a bad thing because I think you are seeing the more speculative trading when market's doing well like right now now but it's positions them well for that wealth transfer that should happen over the next decade or so here. So I think it's a pro and a con is probably not consistent but long term I think has a lot.
- [42:30]
Melissa Lee
Of potential coming up. Just do it with options the setup ahead of Nike's results and if shares can swoosh higher after those numbers cross the wires tomorrow that is next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the current and incoming CEOs of Yum Brands. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More fast money into got a news alert on Verizon. Steve Kovacs got the details. Steve?
- [43:02]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, and take a look at shares at EchoStar first though because there's a talk now in Bloomberg that Verizon is in talks with Echo Star to buy some of that spectrum. You might remember Mel, a couple of weeks ago at and T made a big purchase of the spectrum and then SpaceX Starlink did as well. This is all up for auction here. And now we're seeing this report from Bloomberg that Verizon is in talks to buy some of that remaining spectrum. I saw shares up as much as 11%. It looks like it's up about 9% now with Verizon up marginally after hours now.
- [43:30]
Melissa Lee
All right Steve, thanks Steve Kovach. And you're mentioning Karen. It's an arms race basically that's going on now.
- [43:36]
Karen Feiderman
Right. And prices are just going higher. And I mean some of these stocks were left for dead. Ish. And what an extraordinary run they've all had. But I don't love that. Takes a long time to get deals like that done.
- [43:46]
Melissa Lee
Meantime, Nike on deck to report earnings after the bell tomorrow. The sportswear giant hasn't gotten out of start at the starting gates this year but one option traders betting Tuesday's report could give the stock a boost. Mike has got the latest Mike Nike.
- [43:58]
Mike Kohler
The implied move right now a little larger than 8% by the end of the week. That's slightly less than the eight quarter average of more than 10%.
- [44:06]
Steve Grasso
Today it traded more than double its.
- [44:08]
Mike Kohler
Average daily Options volumes and calls outpaced puts by more than 2 to 1. And the trade that really stuck out was a one by three call spread. Somebody bought 4,000 of the October 75 calls, paid about $1.32 a contract for those and then sold 12,000 of the 87.5 calls against it. Net net. They only laid out about $250,000 in premium but the way to think about this is that they're going to be long 400,000 shares of stock above 75 if the stock should get there. So a bet that the stock could rally but not higher than 87.5.
- [44:39]
Melissa Lee
All right Mike, thank you. Mike Kohler, I remember last quarter it.
- [44:43]
Guy Adami
Was June 26th I think they reported the quarter I thought was miserable. I said I thought the stock would trade lower. It did trade lower initially Tim liked it. Next thing you know the stock I think went from 64 to 70 and two weeks later it's almost an $80 stock. We've effectively round tripped that entire move. It's still expensive but don't underestimate the power of, you know, just saying the right things and people getting excited and having a move to the upside. So if you're short I would cover the short into earnings.
- [45:10]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Time now for the final trade. Steven Grasso, FCX sold off on that.
- [45:33]
Steve Grasso
Horrific news headline about last week. It's stabilized now. I'm long it I would buy it at these levels.
- [45:39]
Melissa Lee
Karen Feiderman Yes.
- [45:40]
Karen Feiderman
So Uber, we had talked about this sort of gravitational pull towards 100 which it did beat this week last week and now it's still right around there. All that had been said though I would still sell some upper some upside calls.
- [45:52]
Melissa Lee
Courtney Garcia, you know we started with.
- [45:54]
Courtney Garcia
The would you rather here I'm going to stick with it here with the K web. I do think you want to have this as part of your portfolio so make sure it's a it's a piece there guy.
- [46:01]
Guy Adami
There's a woman that's been watching this show for the last 17 years who has a birthday to today. Melissa Lee, why don't you say happy birthday to your mom.
- [46:08]
Melissa Lee
Happy birthday Mom.
- [46:10]
Steve Grasso
So nice.
- [46:11]
Guy Adami
She's watching right now.
- [46:12]
Karen Feiderman
She's had 17.
- [46:15]
Melissa Lee
Thanks for watching fast. Happy birthday mom.
- [46:18]
Mike Kohler
Happy birthday mom.
- [46:19]
Melissa Lee
Happy birthday.
- [46:21]
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All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or in other media. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals, like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.