← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fast Money 9/30/25
00:43:49
Listen to our traders take you behind the money...how to play the volatility...pops and drops and the movers you missed. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
A
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu live in the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, a credit crinkle, banks taking a hit ahead of earnings. Consumer finance names slumping and private equity in the doghouse. Are these credit concerns a potential warning sign? We'll talk about that. Plus a discount drug deal. How the White House is teaming up with Big Pharma to lower drug costs. The impact it could have on your wallet and the stocks. And later, Core weave and Met as a power partnership. How retail investors are missing out on some gains due to their so called stock loyalty and a betting blitz. The way Amazon is priming its parlay in the sports betting space. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio Be at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Gaia, Dami and Mike Koh. Well, markets wrapping up Q3 trading in the green. The Dow closing at a fresh record high. The S and P notching its biggest third quarter percentage gain since 2020. And the NASDAQ now in a six month month winning streak. We'll have more on the market moves in just a moment. But we start off with what could be bubbling concerns about credit in this market. Look at the big banks today. Citi, Wells Fargo, bank of America all notably lower. The KB Bank ETF down almost a percent on the day. Private equity and alternative investment firms feeling even more pain. KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Group all falling at least 3%. And then take a look at the consumer finance space. So many of these names suffering affirm so far. Klarna and Capital One, all of this happening at the same time as two auto sector names have filed for bankruptcy. Parts maker first brand subprime lender Tricolor holdings, underscoring just how much stress the low end consumer is under. So you piece all these things together, does it start to paint a picture of a consumer starting to hit a wall of sorts when it comes to borrowing and spending and should we be concerned when it comes to banks and financial firms and the markets guy?
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B
I believe so, but I also think, well I don't think today was quarter end, month end obviously, so maybe there's some rebalancing so I make a huge deal at it. But with that said, credit scores are now falling the fastest pace since the great financial crisis or the global depending on what your G is for that global guy. I'm a great guy. 90 day plus delinquency rates for credit cards north of 12%. That's the high, that's the highest we've seen, I think in 14 years. That's with by the way, the average rate being about 21 and a half percent, $1.2 trillion. So yeah, there are a lot and I could rattle off a few more. There are a lot of reasons to be concerned about the consumer and all those things on the credit side, but it has not manifested itself in the market at all. Hygie is hanging in there like a champ. And yes, today the banks were under pressure. Maybe it's a rebalancing thing or maybe we're right to focus on it going forward. Yeah, you know, it's the access to credit maybe is the thing when you think about a Klarna or you think about some of these other buy now pay laters, obviously a firm or when you go to buy something on the Internet there's like four choices to extend those sorts of purchases. And I think that might be something unique to this cycle. The other thing I'd say about Klarna is like yeah, it had that first day pop after its ipo. It broke price within like a week and a half or so and has barely seen an uptick. So maybe investor demand a little bit is kind of something that we should have been thinking about because you know, maybe this is just a one day thing, maybe it's a quarter end thing. Maybe a lot of these kind of fintech and some of these other like alternative lenders have had a great quarter, you know and that and we keep hearing about a resilient sort of consumer. But you know, this kind of push and pull between the Fed's dual mandate of kind of full employment and stable prices. They're kind of going at different directions now. And we had the PC last week. It wasn't too hot, it wasn't cold, it wasn't anything. It was just still sticky. And then you think about this jobs number going to get on Friday. I mean it may be the sort of thing where people are going to start focusing a bit more on this lower end consumer. And I think that's where this buy now, pay later really falls.
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A
And I think the narrative has always been the consumer as a monolith has been strong. But if you take a look at the breakdown the consumer, this is the trend that we've been hearing except that it was underscored last week when CarMax reported. They said, you know what, our, our subprime customers, those with FICO scores under 550, they're having the most trouble. We're increasing loan loss reserves. We see that in the tricolor bankruptcy where a lot of their borrowees did not, borrowers I should say did not have credit scores or if they had it the average was something like 600. So they are also on the lower end. So this sort of highlights this sort of lower quality consumer. And when if at all should we be worried about that trickling up into sort of other effects? Well, it's funny you said that because I love saying things aren't a monolith. The market is not a monolith. Consumers are not a monolith.
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B
Right.
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That's why we see various consumer ratings and, and so we will start to get a sense two weeks from now when banks start to report those are.
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B
Going to be, I mean JP Morgan.
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A
That'S, that's going to be a very different customer than what you're referring to here.
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B
Right Car.
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A
Well, we'll see Capital One also that will be informative.
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B
I do think that.
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A
I am still long the banks I first I don't love hearing data like this but it.
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B
Has not shaken me from what I.
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Think is still an economy that is.
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B
Doing okay that I think most, that.
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A
The employment picture is still good. I think what could maybe rattle it a little if there is a showdown for us a shutdown for some short amount of time. But I feel feel like the higher end is still doing fine and I think that will be reflected in the bank earnings. Yeah. Mike, your thoughts?
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B
Yeah, I mean it's probably a little bit surprising to me. I would have thought that American Express would have held up better today on a relative basis. I mean it's not that surprising. I Guess Capital One got hard hit. All those names you first mentioned, all of these things saw well above average put volume and that's probably what we would expect to see. American Express I actually would have thought given that their demographic skews higher. And I would have figured that that meant that there was less of a spending capacity issue there, less of any kind of credit risk issue, that that wouldn't be hard hit by expectations of cuts in consumer spending going into the holiday season. And yet it was hard hit. MasterCard and Visa actually held up pretty well. But I agree with Karen that I think JP Morgan and Capital One together are going to give us that tail because you do have those two very different customers at those two, two institutions.
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A
Yeah, I mean the other thing to keep in mind is a high income consumer, they may just be feeling cautious and may not spend. It's not necessarily stress that will cause them to pull back, it's just worry that could cause them to pull back.
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B
Right, that's true.
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A
But also think about the high end consumer also probably has assets in the market and that has done well. So they could still be cautious, but I still think they're doing fine.
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B
You know, a good example of that, I'm just looking at the Robinhood chart. It was up this month, okay, 45%. I mean think about this stock was up 45%. Now the stock is also up 400% off their lows. I mean there was a lot of money made in the markets. I'm just using that as an example and as a comparison, you know, IBKR Interactive was up like 14% this month. Schwab I think was flat on the month. So there's a lot, I think what's interesting about the Robinhood thing, it shows you that investors or traders are alive and well. That is sort of animal spirits. It probably flows into consumer behavior, that sort of thing. So again, I just thought that was actually remarkable. I just looked up and look at that one. But we're seeing delinquency rates move with basically full employment. Understanding that the employment picture might be a little cloudy here, but you're still talking about a historically low unemployment rate. And we're talking about these things that happened 15, 16, 17 or so years ago. So something doesn't add up here. And then you hear from the retailers talking about this huge trade down. Now the average Wal Mart customer, I think 75% is $100,000 or more of income. Understanding that $100,000 isn't what it was five or so years ago. But the theme continues to sort of perpetuate itself. And again, you talk about the high end. True. I mean they're impervious to just about everything. But the middle and the low are getting squeezed. And I really think once the unemployment rate starts to tick higher, which I think is inevitable, you're going to feel it in some of these retailers.
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A
The thing about the Tricolor and I think the first brands, bankruptcies though, that sort of bring back that muscle memory of the GFC G being great or global, whatever your pick is the notion that loans were made, loans were repackaged, those packages were sold to investors and they felt the losses, they will feel the losses. And some of these investors are hedge funds and private asset managers. And that sort of just brings back that, wow, have we seen this before? And that may not be parallel completely, but it sort of makes you think, oh, are we in that situation again? I think, I think we could be the one. That parallel to me though is the boom that that for that reminds me of something else. It's possible. But I do still think that ultimately that hangs on employment. And as long as they're employed, we haven't yet seen the job cuts that was.
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B
That'll be an interesting overlay, but I.
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Do still think as long as they're employed, it will be all right. Well, consumers are planning to spend less and start shopping later this holiday season according to a new survey by jll. For more on the results, Naveen Jaggi joins us now. An exclusive interview. He is JLL's President of Retail Advisory Services. Great to have you with us. You heard our conversation about the concern about credit, etc. What are you seeing in terms of consumer behavior? Does it reflect any of these worries?
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B
I think in many ways it does. We've done a survey for over a thousand consumers and this quite telling. And that tells us that for the overall broad consumer, they're pulling back. They're spending less money this year than last year. But it's a complex story. As we talked about earlier today, we can see that the top 10 to 20% of household earners in the USA are going to spend more. It's the bottom 50, 60, 70% that are holding back. And that's pretty consistent what we expect from the market exposure. As we talked about in this table a minute ago, only 50% of US households are actually in the market. There's a whole 50% that aren't in the market. For them, when the market goes up, it's kind of irrelevant to them. So for them, they're looking at how long will the dollar go? And as a result, where they shop. And they're going to shop at Wal Mart, Target, Dollar, General Ross, Dress for Less, tjx as opposed to Nordstrom.
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A
Right. So for, for your, the retail clients that JLL handles, at what point do they start making decisions about space for the next year? And does it hinge on this holiday shopping season? So they're trying to sort of overlay where you're seeing spending pullbacks along with the retailers and what they might do.
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B
So that's a good question. So retailers really think in two ways. There's the operating company, the OpCo, then there's a real estate group. The real estate group right now is looking at product that they're going to open up in 27 and 28, not right now. So they're making a real estate decision for a consumer and a retailer that says, how's the market looking in 24 months? And in most cases, I've talked to every retailer you can think about, they're bullish on the consumer. On the long haul. What happens today, next week or next month isn't what they're betting on. They're betting on two years, three years from now. Obviously, the employment picture is first and foremost in terms of the spend, but outside of that, in your sort of studies, what scares the consumer from spending, what type of event was a number of events. First of all, this soft job market definitely scares them secondary. This constant talk of tariff puts, unease. They actually don't know what it's going to cost them no matter what the retailer does. And money retailers have said they're not passing that cost increase to the consumer. That doesn't matter. There's a bit of doubt. So between what's happening at the pump, what's happening at the home level, what's happening, job security and then the last piece, which I don't want to think is minimized. Look, there's a lot of stress in the world out today. Wars in Ukraine, wars in Israel, all those things start seeping your mind. You ask yourself, do I need that or do I want that? And sometimes wanting gets passed up for need. And that's what we're seeing most consumers decide right now.
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So thanks for being here.
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B
A question about direct to consumer looking at Nike is out today and you.
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Know, we went way too far. Direct to consumer and back. What does that mean for people looking for retail space? Do you think we have found the plateau level?
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I think for the most. Yeah, yeah. I think for the most part the, the retailers have said we don't see the US consumer going heavily into online only. Roughly 16% of US consumers surveyed said they were going to be online only. Otherwise, 84% are saying going to shop at the brick and mortar stores. We are at a long historical supply shortage in retail real estate space. We haven't had this kind of problem in about 40 years. We won't solve that demand until we just start building real estate space. So to give you some context, what that means is during the heydays of 2000 we were delivering 200 million plus square feet of real estate space per year. Right now we're doing less than 40 million square feet right now. So from 2010 to 2023 we delivered less than a billion, but between 2002 and 2007 we delivered a billion. There's a severe shortage in real estate space. So retailers right now are looking at second generation space, not new space. There's only a few states where you really have significant development going on. Florida, Georgia, Texas, other states, not so much.
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A
Wow. So going back then to this notion that a retailer has to forecast or the commercial real estate group or the retailer has to forecast 24 months out, that's 24 months ago. We couldn't have predicted where we are today.
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B
That's right.
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It's almost an impossible tasks to do. So. So what's your take or guess on what they will do in this environment? Knowing that by that time things could be very different.
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If you think about two, two categories that we pay attention to a lot, the luxury category and then the everyday grocery category. Those two things tend to tell us tale. Right. So if you think about Wal Mart, Wal Mart has 20% grocery share. That's significant. If you go to Wal Mart today, you're going to be able to get a family visit that will include grocery plus monopoly plus some jeans plus a shirt. So if you're thinking about a family going somewhere, you're going to go someplace like Wal Mart. So in the ways I would answer that question is retailers say to themselves, as long as you can find space, second generation space, we're going to continue to grow because they believe in the economy. Unless there's a significant event, a great financial crisis, a recession, a war of those kind of things, retailers will continue to place a bet long term on the US consumer.
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Naveen, thanks so much for coming by. Appreciate it.
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B
Thank you.
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Naveen Jaggi, JL Good having back by.
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The way is a handsome man and that's a good looking jacket. He's sitting here still so I mean.
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I know sharply dressed my takeaways.
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It's a lot of the same themes we've been talking about. You know, the consumer looking for value. I mean that's been true for quite some time, more so than ever. Wal Mart sitting in the catbird seat, a name we didn't mention in this conversation. But probably the best operator out there is tjx. And look at what I think that stock made an all time high today. If it didn't, it was yesterday or a few trading sessions ago. I mean there are retailers that absolutely get it. And then the flip side of the coin is places like Target and some of the other retailers that clearly don't. You know it's interesting you mentioned inflation, right? And so the uncertainty about tariffs and that sort of thing. So you put inflation, uncertainty about tariffs and then you kind of throw in this sort of who's going to eat the tariffs, that sort of thing. So you know, it'll be interesting to see how much, how much promotion we see into the holiday season because that and the maybe not wanting to kind of pass through those higher tariff costs to the consumer could be an interesting dynamic for a lot of these retailers.
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A
All right, now let's get to an earnings alert on Nike, the sportswear giant moving higher on a top and bottom line beat. Our Sarah Eisen has been listening to the call since the top of the hour. She's got the very latest. Sarah. Hi Melissa, good to see you. Certainly signs of a turnaround taking shape here at Nike or in the words of Elliot Hill who is speaking right now on the call, what he just said. Nike's journey back to greatness has only just begun. So let's talk about the results. For one, revenue growth of 1%. That was a surprise. Nike itself had guided to mid single digit revenue decline. Why? Well, progress in North America which grew 4%. Progress in wholesale as well. That's the Dick's Sporting goods and some new announcements there like Aritzia and Amazon Wholesale overall growth growing 7% and then running really called out as a bright spot. Hill just revealing that running grew more than 20% just this quarter. Now these are important areas because there are three areas that Hill has focused on. He's been there as CEO for about a year now is brought back by the board veteran of the company to turn around a multi year sales slump. But there is still more work to do as Hill himself referenced in the release. Here's what he said. He said while we're just, we're getting early wins under our belt, we still have work to do to get all sports geographies and channels on a similar path as we manage a dynamic operating environment. So here's where there's work to do. Greater China still declining, down 10% this quarter. Quarter without the impact of the weaker dollar, Nike Direct. You guys were just talking about direct to consumer, primarily the digital business. It's still declining. Converse, they just announced a new leader there that's still declining more than 25% overall. Hill has put in place a new leadership team, a new structure for that team. They announced that last quarter and has shown some innovation wins. But the environment is tough. Tariffs remain an issue for this company. Most of its product is manufactured overseas. Remember last quarter Nike CFO said that would cost the company $1 billion. We'll see on the call if they update that at all now that we have some trade deals under our belt with some new tariff rates. But innovation wins is really what the street wants to see here as well. In running, for instance, what's worked so well, they they redesigned the Vomero running shoe, the Peg premium, and Hill gave a shout out to the team for working and moving so fast on some of those wins. The other reason why the stock might not be up more. Melissa Hill just reiterated a comment that was in the release from the CEO Matt CFO Matt Friend, who said progress will not be linear, but they are certainly moving in the right direction. All right, Sarah, Karen's got a question. Hi, thanks. Thanks for the rundown. Sarah. Hi. Inventory, it looked like inventory declined meaningfully less than the street was expecting. Yeah, inventory was down 2%. But that, you know, that is progress. Last quarter it was flat. So they've been doing a lot of work to clear the shelves of some of the old inventory and make space and room for the new innovation. I think that Nike and some of the analysts I know, Randy Connick, who Jefferies is a strong buy on the name, said actually that's good that now inventory is declining, which could, which makes room for more margin improvement. They're still seeing margin declines, as you know, because selling prices are down as they've had to clear this, this inventory. It's offset a little bit by also some of the tariffs as well, some of the inventory improvement. But I think they would look at that as a, as a plus that it's, that they're feeling good, that it's moving in the right direction. Yep. Sarah, thanks. Good to see you. Sarah Eisen from the nyse. Miko, your thoughts on this Nike turnaround enough from the quarter to believe that it is intact.
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B
I think these are all positives. You know, I would say this, you know, it's still the valuation is a little hard for me to get around. I would like to see something better than 1% year on year growth to make this one look competitive. When you consider that it's trading what, 30 times 20, 27 numbers right now. And certainly it's not a grower on the top line yet. So there is room for margin expansion. I mean 7% versus I think 13% is what they achieved at their peak. I don't think we're going to go back to that. But if you got back to say 9 and get like a 3, 4% top line growth then you start to justify the current price. But we're not there yet.
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A
I mean, I think that's an interesting way of putting it. Like taking that the revenue growth 1% and thinking about how much it trades at, which is the equivalent of some mag7 names Karen in your portfolio. Yes, I know. And actually what I'm thinking about this earnings release is this was a bad risk reward for me to be long going into this earnings today. If this is what they released, which was fine and good enough.
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B
Right. But all the.
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But many of the other outcomes could.
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Have been not so good. And if this was a, you know.
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Okay, they're making progress, you would hope that the stock which has really gotten crushed would have more of a bounce than this. Right.
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B
Last quarter's last quarter June 26, I think that's right. I thought was an unmitigated disaster. I think the stock was trading about 64 and a half. We talked about it. Conference call came out. Within a week the stock was trading 75 to 80. Tim Seymour talked about it and he called it that day. This quarter is better than last quarter in my opinion. Just looking at a swath of metrics. Karen mentioned the inventory down a couple percent. Maybe not exactly what the street is looking for, but that should clear things out for margins to improve 1% yet not great, but I'm surprised it's not higher on the back of this, quite frankly. We said last night you can't be short in this number. I'll stand by that. The stocks should go higher from here.
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A
Coming up, a discount deal. How the White House is teaming up with Pfizer to lower drug prices and what it means for the pharma industry and your wallet. Plus the instacart under pressure as analysts flag an increase in competition. But one of our traders says this name may finally be ready to deliver. And you'll never guess who. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two. At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Edu.
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B
Oh hey, love your shoes. If you're hearing this, this is your sign to try those on.
- [22:19]
A
Trust us, you can totally pull them off.
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B
In fact, try on every shoe here if you want. We won't stop you in our house. You've got unlimited freedom to play.
- [22:29]
A
And hey, fall is the perfect season to do wear. Be whatever you want. And with tons of shoes that get you at prices that get your budget.
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B
We'Ll give you something to brag about. So go ahead, try em.
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A
Let us surprise you. Taylor Swift just came off her record breaking Iris tour.
- [22:47]
B
What can she do to top it? The pop superstar announcing a brand new album.
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A
Literally everything she touches. People know about the Swift effect.
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B
Cnbc premieres Saturday, October 4, 10 Eastern.
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A
We've got breaking news in the US taking a stake in another company. Amy Javors has got the details.
- [23:06]
B
Eamon Melissa US Energy Secretary Chris Wright was on Bloomberg News just a short time ago and he said that the United States is going to take a 5% stake in lithium Americas. Now, remember there was reporting last week that the company was in negotiations to give up a 10% stake. And what Wright said today is that actually it's going to be that 5% stake in the company itself and then a 5% stake in this underlying lithium mine that the company is renegotiating its loans over. Now that mine is a joint venture with General Motors and Lithium Americas, so they will be shouldering the burden of that equity in the mine itself. So this is another deal where the US Government is going to, in exchange for in this case, government loans, is going to take an equity stake in an American company. And Melissa, the word I get around here and talking to folks is we should be expecting more of these deals are in the works. Not clear which companies in particular might be at the negotiating table for this kind of a deal. But what the president has been asserting here is that if companies need loan guarantees, if they need regulatory approvals or other US Government action, they should be prepared to give up a revenue stream or give up an equity stake in order to make those deals happen. Melissa Back over to you, Eamon.
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A
This is really a confirmation of a report that we Got last week, correct?
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B
That's right. Yeah. The reporting last week was that they were in negotiations for a 10% stake. This is a 5% stake in the company and then also a 5% stake in the, in the mine, according to the energy secretary on Bloomberg a short time ago. We'll reach out to Lithium Americas and see what they have to say about it as well.
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A
All right, keep us posted. Amy Javers in Washington. Thank you. We were talking about this how energy could take stakes in various companies, make loans to various companies that supply critical minerals. And if you invest along with the government, that's been a winning trade, effectively.
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B
You know, I'm not getting on Cowan because this is hard game, but Cowan downgraded the stock, I think five or so days ago. And then you have this, I don't know, the stocks probably trade north of seven bucks now, probably closed five and a half or so. And you're going to start to build on this without question. People will start to chase on the back of this. Doesn't make, you know, I'm not saying it's right, wrong and different, but through the lens of how you trade these things, you know, you want to maybe pile in on the back of this because that's been the way to do things over the last month or so. Well, now we're seeing what three of these the last few months or something like that. And I guess the question you have to ask yourself is like, is this good for capitalism? Is it good for fair markets to have this sort of activity and we see it around the globe in places that are not liberal democratic sort of society.
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A
Can I push back on one thing though? These are seen as strategic assets for the United States.
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B
So is every. So in China, you know, I mean they have their hands in almost every industry. So in the banks too. I mean, listen, where's going to stop? I guess. And so, you know, I mean, I just, that's not a political statement. That's just. It's an economic statement. You guys all did econ and finance.
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A
All that stuff, right?
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B
I did.
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A
I mean, I'm sort of surprised. The 5% is, is a $65 million investment and it's worth how. Well.
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B
Right.
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A
I mean that seems small, but I.
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B
Would push back on Dan also just.
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For the sake of. Why not push back on Dan, which is I do very much agree with this kind of investment and ownership rather than just giving a. Giving money away.
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B
Get something in return.
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A
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Meantime, a monster day for big pharma shares of Pfizer along With Merck seeing their best day since the pandemic, both stocks surging almost 7%. Eli Lilly also getting a late bump in the day. The move coming after President Trump announced a deal with Pfizer to reduce drug prices. CNBC's Angelica People's got the developing story. Angelica. Hey, Melissa. Well, Pfizer is agreeing to lower the price of some of its drugs and to invest in the US in exchange for an exemption for tariffs for the next three years. So as part of the deal, Pfizer will make most of its drugs available to Medicaid at prices that are closer to what other developed countries pay. And it will also sell some of its medicines directly to patients through a new website called TrumpRx. It's also committing to price new drugs at the same price overseas as it will in the U.S. now, none of those moves expected to have a meaningful impact on Pfizer sales. So the drugs that will be discounted as part of the new DTC platform, these are older drugs and they're not major drivers for the company. And Medicaid already receives the best prices around. So again, not expecting a big impact there, but Pfizer CEO Albert Borla saying that this deal gives investors clarity and it eliminates the thrust of drug pricing reform and tariffs, both of which had been weighing on the stock. And again, you saw that reaction today. And now the question is, who's next? Right. The White House is suggesting that it could be Eli Lilly, the company telling us that they don't have any specific details to share, but that it looks forward to providing an update in collaboration with the administration soon. So more to watch there, Mel. All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles, I think what's key here is what Angelica highlighted, and that is there's not much of an impact in sales to Pfizer. And so therefore, what do they give up? Not that much for a 7% pop in the stock. And ostensibly the government getting off of their back.
- [28:07]
B
That's the point. Getting the bull's eye that's been on their back is now off their back, which reason why you're seeing a relief rally across all these names, which makes sense. On top of which, Merck had some positive news on pulmonary. I'm going to screw this up. Arterial hypertension the other day, which should have gotten the stock higher. Feels like the market's been waiting for an announcement like this. They're getting it now. These stocks should, should have some upside. Pfizer, which has obviously been dead for a while, should have some upside. And Merck which has been languishing around 80 bucks, should have some upside as well.
- [28:38]
A
Pfizer, by the way, also had some better than expected mid stage data on its long acting GLP1, which they just recently acquired with Medcera last week. So that's also adding to this. But the whole notion of Albert Borla basically playing this perfectly because they committed to $70 billion in drug manufacturing to the United States. The FDA commissioner, by the way, also said if you build here, your application for new drugs will be first in line. You lower drug prices, your applications will be first in line. So the drug companies will get something out of this too.
- [29:09]
B
Yeah, I think, I mean, I agree.
- [29:10]
A
With everything you said and that, you know, the target on their back is off.
- [29:15]
B
And I don't think this move, there's.
- [29:18]
A
More to go here. When you think about how much these stocks have been under pressure. Tiny bit of relief here, but I think there's still a lot of cheap. Mike Koh, has the cloud lifted from pharma at this point?
- [29:29]
B
Well, the prices suggest that it hasn't. But I think that actually that's the good news for investors who are inclined to try to play this from the long side. I mean, Pfizer, you know, this thing has just looked like completely dead money. Single digit multiple, better than 10% free cash flow. And basically what that was telling you is that investors just thought this thing was just going to get worse and worse. And I think that is actually the backstop you can lean on to Karen's point, up a buck and a half, two bucks on a $25 stock that's trading at eight times, you know, I mean the options are cheap. Actually, it was a huge trader on the option side to over a million contracts traded today. 900,000 of those were on the call side. But the options are cheap too, along with the stock. And I think buying some longer dated calls in this thing makes some makes some sense here.
- [30:13]
A
All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [30:18]
B
Maple Bear Bummer as shares of Instacart get hit after a Wall street downgrade. But one of our traders says this stock may finally be ready to deliver. Plus, staying loyal to your stocks, why retail investors are doubling down on their portfolio picks and why it could be costing them. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [30:48]
A
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella.
- [31:02]
B
Edu At Designer Shoe Warehouse we believe that shoes are an important part of, well, everything.
- [31:10]
A
From first steps to first dates. From all nighters to all time personal bests.
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B
From building pillow forts to building a.
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A
Life for all the big and small moments that make up your whole world. DSW is there and we've got just the shoes. Find a shoe for every you from brands you love at brag worthy prices at your DSW store or dsw.com welcome back to Fast Money. Instacart shares falling as much as 5% today, but ending the day off of session lows. BTIG analysts downgraded the company from a buy to a neutral citing increasing competition from Amazon, Doordash and Uber Uber. One of our traders says the move lower is attractive here and that would be silver lining down.
- [31:55]
B
You got it. Maple Bear. It's your favorite company name.
- [31:59]
A
It's like saying Bear.
- [32:00]
B
It's fun. All right, well here's the deal. This one got knocked over the last month or so. Disappointing guidance and then this competitive sort of issue with Amazon they're expending are extending their daily delivery to a bunch more products. Here's the thing though about Instacart, right? They have 75% gross margins. The company is supposed to grow earnings 20% a year for the next two years, 10% revenue growth over the next few years. You think about Amazon as an entrance into a business like this, you know your margin is their opportunity. But this company has 1800 basic partnerships with retails, 100,000 locations. It's got a $9 billion market cap, $1.7 billion in cash, no debt. So a seven and change enterprise value. I could see some sort of partnership or some sort of takeout for this, this name down 20% in the last month or so. It's a cheap Stock trades at 19 times this year, 15 times next. You have to assume though that those estimates, that consensus estimates is intact, that Amazon's not going to take too much of a chop out of those estimates. But I think it's kind of rerated here a little bit. I think a lot of the risk probably in the near term is out.
- [33:02]
A
Of the stock take out by a company like name it, I mean Wal.
- [33:06]
B
Mart, I mean, so Amazon is doing this really to compete with Walmart. They're not doing it to compete with an Instacart. So you can see strategically why this company given its actual, you know, their competitive situation is still pretty good for now.
- [33:19]
A
So. But the logistics of a Wal Mart I would feel like is already well underway.
- [33:24]
B
Sure. Well, they bought that jet that was vaporware. You know what I mean? Like you could see as Amazon really kicks up, you guys know Wal Mart a lot better than me but you know, groceries is better than I. But go ahead that to me and I, I mean don't tell my wife, she thinks I'm so bad at that stuff here. She, she's not watching. But my point is is like this is where you kind of have to get creative. Like an Uber maybe. You know, I mean Lyft, but like the issue is with the unit economics of all these companies. Right. And one of the things for it was really good for Uber when they moved into delivery because they had higher margins. Right. So this would be a good mix shift for a company that sees this as it's not just groceries, by the way. There's a whole host of other things that the Instacart delivers. Karen said something years ago. I would agree with Dan, but then we'd both be wrong. But in this case I'm actually going to, you know, we just traded down to the lows we saw at the end of March, early April. We did it on seven times normal volume valuation isn't stretched. It's a good risk reward on the long side.
- [34:16]
A
Coming up, steadfast stock picking. Why our next guest says investors may be too loyal to their portfolios and how it could be capping their gains when fast money returns. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks wrapping up in September to remember in the green and closing out a strong third quarter. The Dow more than 5% closing at a fresh record high today. The S and p jumping nearly 8%, its largest Q3 percentage gain since 2020. The Nasdaq meantime surging more than 11% this quarter, notching a six month winning streak. And small caps ripping higher as well, up more than 12%. That's its best quarterly performance since 2023. Gold meantime, continuing its record rally, hitting another fresh all time high today, climbing more than 17% in just Q3, now up 47% percent in 2025. Crude oil in the red though. WTI down 4%, seeing its third straight negative quarter for the first time since 2015. Well, investors are staying cautiously optimistic despite tariff and inflation concerns. That's according to the latest sentiment survey out of investor PD editor in chief of Vesta pd Caleb Silver is here to break down the latest survey results. Caleb, always great to see you. They are sticking with the markets. They are overly loyal, you say, what does that mean, overly loyal?
- [35:34]
B
Cautiously optimistic, but overly loyal to the same stocks that got them here. When we asked them about their top 10 holdings, they look just like the top of the NASDAQ 100. It's the same big stocks that they've owned for years. And then when we asked them, what stocks would you buy today and own for the next 10 years? A very similar list. We're talking about Apple, Palantir, Alphabet, Microsoft, obviously JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway make it into that list as well. But the funny thing is you just mentioned A September to remember Q Earth, Wind and Fire. But they have missed rallies in some stocks way outside of that, which just shows you the value of how hard it is to pick these stocks. But also the problem with being overly loyal to the same group that got you to where you are today.
- [36:11]
A
You say overly loyal because they say that they are afraid of a bubble and yet they are sticking by these stocks.
- [36:17]
B
Yeah, they see a bubble in related stocks. Guess what? They own a bunch of them. And a bubble in mega cap tech. Guess what? But they own a bunch of those stocks too and don't plan on deviating from that. That said, they've done very well by them. Some of them are sitting on really big gains. So hard to sell out at this point in time. But still, that loyalty, especially as they're starting to feel a little bit of frothiness in the market, concerns about just about everything weighing on them, they're staying with the same group that got them. All right, Caleb, you've been doing this for years now, right? You've been taking the pulse of the individual investor. What period does this feel like? Right, so we have IPOs coming back, we have Sparks coming back. We have crypto doing really well. We have mega cap tech stocks. To me, all these comparisons about, you know, the dot com thing, I think it feels more like 2020 and 2021. Think back to that period. Are you getting some of the similar vibes? Absolutely. And all we're missing is Roaring Kitty here because it is very much like 2021 IPOs left and right. We see Coinbase being the number one top performing stock in the S&P 500. Part of that is because because it got at it. But that shows you it's a risk on mentality with investors big and large right now. And I know you guys have been watching this. Global fund managers as optimistic as they've been all year, individual investors, according to A I as optimistic as they've been all year, where were they when the rally was starting? And now that things are getting a little bit frothy, concerns about overvaluation, they're stuck here right now holding the same stocks that got them here. Politics, economy, markets have collided. What are people saying about sort of the political landscape and how it's shaping some of their views? Yeah, the big question we've been asking them lately is about trust. Do you trust the capital markets? Do you trust them under this administration? Do you believe in the sanctity and the reliability of government data? And those numbers have been falling. Trust has been waning. And people's concerns about the reliability of government data, given the BLS and other issues, that's been fading as well. So that's a big part of it. Meanwhile. Well, they approve mostly of what the Fed has done and 79% want them to remain independent.
- [38:13]
A
And my favorite question is, what would you do with an unexpected windfall? And the answer is it's stocks, individual.
- [38:18]
B
Stocks, followed by ETFs. But you know what's new to the list? Gold. And what took them so long to get to gold? Gold's having a phenomenal year. And these are investors of various ages, 18 to 80, but now gold, top three on the list of that extra 10k.
- [38:31]
A
Caleb, always good to see you. Thank you. Caleb Silver, Investopedia. You've been on the gold train for a long.
- [38:35]
B
Caleb is pro, you see. Yeah, good. I mean, this is his medium. I'm surprised it took people that long to find out about, I mean, yes, gold. And it's amazing that it's found its way into this, into this survey. Because if you think about it, we've had Caleb on dozens of times and we rarely talk, if ever, about gold. So the fact that more people are talking about it will discourage some people. It only encourages me.
- [38:58]
A
All right, coming up, a mega meta deal. The details behind core. We Reeves $14 billion air infrastructure agreement and the increasing power demand behind the revolution Fast Money is back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Core. We've surging nearly 12% after striking a $14 billion cloud infrastructure deal with Metta. Platforms meanwhile, matter off 1% today. This follows Corey's decision last week to expand its agreement with open air by $6.5 billion. One of the bear cases, the bear thesis is customer concentration. This seems to answer that directly. Dan.
- [39:42]
B
Well, it's also capacity, right? So if you have a handful of customers or some are going to be more important than the others and Then you ask yourself, okay, do they actually have the ability to take this, these customers online? What does it cost to build out these, these data centers? They're leasing at much longer terms than they are doing these sorts of deals. And I just think it's interesting that the market is willing to reward them on a contract deal that may or may not come to fruition. I know it's, you know, it's committed, that sort of thing. But the market is just immediately giving them at least 50% in market cap of those deals. So again, I remain very, very skeptical about this company in particular, but also their ability to kind of get the electricity to kind of of do this thing if they can actually build out the capacity.
- [40:23]
A
Right. Mike, what are you seeing?
- [40:26]
B
Yeah, I mean, look, this is a situation where the company's not profitable. Right. So even I think that's kind of what Dan is getting to. And even if it was, you know, what kind of a number should we assign to it? And you know, I mean there's huge options volume, of course. I mean these things are story stocks at this point. Again, I think that was kind of Dan's point. But you know, fundamentally I can't get behind this one.
- [40:48]
A
You have a trade on it? I do.
- [40:49]
B
I have shorted. I shorted some more today.
- [40:52]
A
Got a little lucky pricing there, but I think they were already met. Already was a customer because it was referring to a master services agreement from December 2023. Interesting. So, but interesting to me, Core we.
- [41:06]
B
Was up and Meta is down on the same news.
- [41:09]
A
I don't know but maybe it was just coincidental. I just feel like a lot of froth there to Mike's point about, you know, doesn't make money.
- [41:16]
B
This is also a five year deal.
- [41:18]
A
I don't know how it spreads out over the five years, but it's through 2031.
- [41:21]
B
This is also one of the ones. Nvidia's an investor. They're buying Nvidia's chips back. They're actually leasing back them. They're leasing back compute. It's just one of these ones where it just doesn't seem. And Mike's point about the unprofitability. They've had to raise so much debt now obviously they raised equity when they did their ipo, but they're going to have to continue to take on debt. Video.
- [41:38]
A
Well, they could sell, you know.
- [41:41]
B
Yeah, look, I mean semis again in video today. We talked about it on the call. I mean we went 45 minutes without talk about Nvidia. You have to all time high today. I mean I thought this stock would cascade lower on the back of earnings. That was wrong. Maybe it's a month quarter end thing. Big volume day today, but impressive nonetheless.
- [41:58]
A
Coming up, a Prime parlay. How Amazon is covering the spread in the betting boom and the sports bettor they are teaming up with to make it happen happen More fast Money into welcome back to Fast Money, Amazon's prime sports blitzing into betting as the e commerce giant teams up with a major player in the space to bring personalization to your next wager. Contessa Brewer is here with more Contessa Melissa Amazon's prime video announced today a new suite of features for NBA games airing on Amazon prime prime in partnership with Flutter's FanDuel. Viewers can link their prime account with their FanDuel account, get personalized bet tracking and an odds view while watching NBA on W and WNBA games on prime so you can see it on a big screen and see your bets coming up. They cannot wager directly on prime but they will be able to watch the game here, see the progress on parlay, see their wins and losses, just keep track of in real time. Other viewers can also see money lines, odds, other betting data right on their screen. Non bettors can opt out altogether. So if you have kids watching basketball, you don't have to see all of that. FanDuel also announces today that as part of the partnership, Blake Griffin, an analyst for prime, will serve as an ambassador for FanDuel's offering. FanDuel, owned by Flutter, will get a competitive advantage in customer acquisition. They'll just get a exposure to people who might not already have accounts and if you want to see bets, it's a good way to do it. But rough day for them today. They're not getting any boost from the Amazon news considering what Kalshee did with launching parlays. So yeah, the Kalshi Robin and we were talking about Robinhood stock earlier. I mean it's just been a monster off the back of the predictions or they said they said 4 billion events contracts. It looks like a lot of that is coming in the third quarter when they launched NFL and maybe a quarter of Kalshee's business is now coming through Robinhood. So it's been really good for Kalshee too. The CEO was in front of the CFTC saying hey, we're really doing gangbusters here. We're going at it full force and we think that you guys should get behind us. But in terms of all these players entering the fray here, I mean does. What does that do to a. I don't know DraftKings. I mean I would imagine. Listen, they had strut the betters is not fixed but. But it's not. I think that they are attracting a lot of one. If you're younger than 21, if you're 18, 19, 20, you can make an events trade on the contract so you can be underage and still make a financial trade. So that's part of it. And the second thing is they've shrugged this off in the past as a non event but once you start offering parlays which the gamblers love even though it favors the house. Right. Well then. Then you are. You're competing. Yeah.
- [44:47]
B
Contessa. Crushing the space and the insurance as well. I saw the Flutter news today. I'm surprised it sold off as hard as it did. Maybe it's a sell the news thing because it's made an all time high but you buy Flutter on the back of this.
- [45:00]
A
All right, Contessa, great to see you as always. Thank you, Brewer. All right, up next, final trades, final trade time. Mike Koh.
- [45:18]
B
Not a grower, but the tariff deal with the administration makes Pfizer attractive here.
- [45:23]
A
Karen. All right, well I'm going to piggyback somewhat on Michael's excellent idea of being more into the pharma space. PPH is an etf. You can do it that way. Get a whole of bunch your names.
- [45:35]
B
Dan Nathan, dogs in the down sort of thing. Maybe like a little or in a.
- [45:38]
A
Cat news there's a catalyst.
- [45:40]
B
I'm kicking the tires on Instacart Maple Bear.
- [45:44]
A
I love just sunshine and pot.
- [45:47]
B
We have one of the great Wall street analysts here. I'm not going to mention names. Yankee baseball in the Bronx and Nike. Mel.
- [45:54]
A
He's a huge Alabama fan too.
- [45:55]
B
Yes, he is.
- [45:56]
A
Thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.