CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary Episode: Fed Decision On Deck… And Novo Nordisk Gears Up To Report 5/6/25
Release Date: May 6, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee and Roundtable of Top Traders

Introduction

In this episode of CNBC's "Fast Money," host Melissa Lee teams up with a panel of seasoned traders to dissect the latest market movements, upcoming earnings reports, and the looming Federal Reserve decision. The show delves into the contrasting performances of semiconductor giants AMD and Supermicro, Novo Nordisk's anticipated earnings, the implications of recent federal appointments on the biotech sector, and more.

Semiconductor Sector: AMD vs. Supermicro

[01:04]

Melissa Lee opens the discussion with a focus on the semiconductor industry, highlighting the divergent paths of AMD and Supermicro following their latest earnings reports.

Supermicro's Struggles

• Christina Partsinevelos explains, "Shares are under pressure, dropping over 3% after the company delivered weaker guidance despite prior warnings about potential declines."
• The CEO cited "customer purchase delays for data center technology" and warned about "tariffs creating short-term headwinds" for the server maker.

AMD's Robust Performance

• Conversely, Christina notes, "AMD jumped nearly 4% after hours on strong performance, especially in data centers and client segments."
• AMD showcases confidence with a projected $7.4 billion in sales, despite absorbing an $800 million hit from U.S. export restrictions on AI chips in China.

Notable Quotes:

• Christina Partsinevelos [02:16]:
  "We expect many of those commitments to land in the June and September quarters, but cautioned that tariffs could create short term headwinds for the server maker."

• Dan Nathan [05:43]:
  "It's going to be a really important event for this trade. I just think there's been very few good headlines for Nvidia, so they're going to have to put up a big beat..."

Nvidia's Position and Trade Tariffs Implications

[03:35]

Melissa Lee connects the performance of AMD and Supermicro to Nvidia's upcoming earnings. The panel discusses how Nvidia's ties to Supermicro and potential tariff impacts could influence its market position.

Key Points:

• Supermicro's Delays: Indicate possible downstream effects on Nvidia due to intertwined business relationships.
• AMD's Confidence: Reflects a market that is cautiously optimistic despite regulatory hurdles.

Notable Quotes:

• Melissa Lee [03:35]:
  "What's interesting Christine, I mean if you take these two reports you can try and triangulate what Nvidia might say on May 20 when it reports its earnings."

• Richard Fisher [07:35]:
  "We have a very good USTR right now. It may be that he can move us faster than anybody else been able to do before him, but we'll just have to see."

Federal Reserve Decision Outlook

[05:58]

With the Fed meeting imminent, the panel anticipates potential rate cuts amidst economic uncertainties.

Insights:

• Richard Fisher expresses skepticism about the Fed making any decisive moves without clear economic indicators:
  "I don't expect anything tomorrow and I may not even be expecting anything in June."

• Michael Schumacher suggests that if the Fed delays actions, it might have to resort to aggressive measures later in the year:
  "I think the chance of a hundred odd basis points second half of this year. It's increasing by the day."

Notable Quotes:

• Richard Fisher [11:54]:
  "They can't make a decision here. Given all the uncertainty... I can't see them making a firm decision here."

• Michael Schumacher [19:51]:
  "I do think the chance of pretty much what I laid out for Dick Fisher is coming to fruition."

Energy Market Insights and Texas Economy

[16:29]

The discussion shifts to the energy sector, focusing on oil prices and the resilience of the Texas economy.

Key Points:

• Low Oil Prices: U.S. producers may halt drilling activities if oil remains around $56-$57 due to high production costs.
• Texas Diversification: Despite challenges in the oil sector, Texas boasts a diversified economy with significant growth in financial services.

Notable Quotes:

• Richard Fisher [16:29]:
  "We're seeing natural gas prices rise significantly, and that's due to the expectations of what's going to fuel AI."

• Guy Adami [46:04]:
  "Happy birthday to Tim Seymour. Steely eyed Southwest Air."
  (Note: This appears to be a light-hearted interjection rather than a key financial insight.)

Ride Share Sector: Uber and Lyft Earnings

[44:28]

Melissa Lee previews the upcoming earnings reports from ride-sharing giants Uber and Lyft, noting their divergent stock performances over the year.

Insights:

• Uber's Surge: Despite volatility, Uber's stock has surged over 40% this year, attributed to diversification and strategic acquisitions.
• Lyft's Stability: Lyft remains flat for the year, with discussions around potential acquisition targets to enhance fleet technology.

Notable Quotes:

• Guy Adami [44:28]:
  "I think Uber is going to continue to surprise people."

• Dan Nathan [45:17]:
  "Lyft is a $5 billion enterprise value and they're sticking around. I think it's important to have a number two player here."

Biotech Sector and FDA's Vinay Prasad Appointment

[37:28]

The appointment of Vinay Prasad as the director of the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research has sent ripples through the biotech sector.

Key Points:

• Prasad's Stance: A vocal critic of the FDA's accelerated approval processes, Prasad advocates for stricter regulations requiring longer trials and proven survival benefits.
• Market Reaction: Biotech stocks, including Moderna and Sarepta, plunged following his appointment due to fears of increased regulatory scrutiny.

Notable Quotes:

• Angelica Peebles [36:00]:
  "He's quite vocal about his criticism of the FDA. So he's accused his predecessor of rubber stamping unproven products."

• Christina Partsinevelos [37:28]:
  "Most definitely. He wants to see harder outcomes for drugs... There's just an overhang for the sector now."

Palantir's Post-Earnings Drop

[29:24]

Palantir experienced a significant stock decline despite beating earnings expectations.

Insights:

• Valuation Concerns: Trading at 66 times sales and 170 times earnings, Palantir's high valuation is under scrutiny.
• International Sales Decline: A notable drop in international sales raises questions about the sustainability of their growth.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Nathan [30:00]:
  "This is probably the most obscene stock I've ever seen. At 66 times sales, it just doesn't make sense."

Novo Nordisk's Earnings Outlook

[40:12]

The episode anticipates Novo Nordisk's upcoming earnings report, discussing potential impacts from tariffs and product performance.

Key Points:

• Product Performance: Novo Nordisk's WeGovy has gained traction through exclusive deals, offsetting concerns about GLP1 trends.
• Tariff Implications: Potential tariffs on biologics could affect Novo Nordisk's international sales and profitability.

Notable Quotes:

• Christina Partsinevelos [39:14]:
  "We could see numbers be squishy. They may punt it."

• Dan Nathan [40:12]:
  "We got more in Q3. Would you rather Eli Lilly or Nova right now? Eli Lilly."

Disney's Earnings Expectations Amid Macroeconomic Concerns

[37:28]

Julia Borson from "Fast Money" provides an overview of Disney's upcoming earnings report, highlighting the company's exposure to consumer spending and potential tariffs.

Key Points:

• Parks and Experiences: Responsible for 60% of Disney's operating income, vulnerable to declines in foreign travel.
• Ad Revenue: Facing softness due to economic uncertainty impacting both linear and streaming platforms.
• Streaming Churn: Disney Plus anticipates continued subscriber churn following recent price hikes.

Analyst Perspectives:

• Morgan Stanley: Views Disney's current stock price as presenting an attractive risk-reward scenario despite a 20% year-to-date decline.
• Raymond James: Notes that while parks expose Disney to economic pressures, they also buffer against impacts on the entertainment division.

Notable Quotes:

• Julia Borson [42:41]:
  "With shares down 20% year to date, the net result is an attractive risk reward."

• Guy Adami [43:00]:
  "The second iteration of Bob Iger has not been particularly good. He has to start to deliver."

Concluding Thoughts and Market Sentiments

Throughout the episode, the panelists express a cautious outlook on various sectors amidst economic uncertainties and regulatory challenges. They emphasize the importance of upcoming earnings reports and the Fed's decisions in shaping market trajectories.

Key Takeaways:

• Economic Uncertainty: Pervasive across sectors, influencing investor confidence and stock performances.
• Regulatory Scrutiny: Increasing in biotech and tech sectors, potentially impacting growth and valuations.
• Market Volatility: Driven by macroeconomic factors, trade policies, and sector-specific developments.

Notable Quotes:

• Richard Fisher [16:15]:
  "Low prices are cured by low prices. So I think they will lay down the rigs at these prices."

• Dan Nathan [21:25]:
  "I don't think back end loaded. 100 basis points seems so aggressive still."

Final Trade Insights

[45:49]

In the final segment, Michael Schumacher provides insights into U.S. Treasury yields, anticipating rate movements influenced by the Fed's stance.

Notable Quotes:

• Michael Schumacher [45:49]:
  "U.S. treasury yields up a little bit tomorrow because Powell's hawkish, maybe five basis points in the 10-year but over the next three months down."

• Dan Nathan [46:00]:
  "Lift I think gaps down towards 10."

Closing Remarks

Melissa Lee wraps up the episode by reiterating the critical themes discussed and previewing upcoming market events, including Uber and Lyft's earnings reports and the broader implications of the Fed's decisions.

Conclusion This episode of "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive analysis of current market dynamics, emphasizing the interplay between corporate earnings, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic policies. Listeners gain valuable insights into how these factors collectively shape investment strategies and market sentiments.