← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Fed Decision On Deck… And Novo Nordisk Gears Up To Report 5/6/25
00:43:52
Another key Fed decision on deck, as the recent stock market bounce loses steam. What to expect from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and what it will mean for the market’s next move. Plus Earnings season in full swing, and Wegovy-maker Novo Nordisk is ready to report. Why one top healthcare analyst is eyeing potential tariff risks and political overhang as a headwind for the whole weight loss drug space. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:02]
Melissa Lee
As America's leading business lender, bank of America is on your corner and in your corner. With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation, we help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do? Learn more@bankofamerica.com LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. Hey Fidelity, Can I get a second.
- [00:34]
Dan Nathan
Opinion on stocks in the Fidelity app?
- [00:36]
Melissa Lee
With Fidelity, it's easy to get an outside opinion from independent experts in a single score. And then when you're ready, trade US stocks and ETFs with no commissions.
- [00:47]
Dan Nathan
That's right.
- [00:48]
Melissa Lee
I am always right. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss, online US equity trades and ETFs and.
- [00:53]
Dan Nathan
Retail fidelity account sell order assessment fee.
- [00:55]
Melissa Lee
Not included some account types and securities.
- [00:56]
Dan Nathan
Excluded details of fidelity.com commissions fidelityblo Brokerage.
- [00:58]
Melissa Lee
Services, LLC member NYSE SIPC.
- [01:04]
Christina Partsinevelos
Live in.
- [01:05]
Melissa Lee
The NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, a tale of two semi stocks, AMD and Supermicro moving in very different directions after their latest reports. What they have to say about the state of the trade we're dialed into. The calls bring you all the details and slimming down shares in Novo Nordisk dropping ahead of earnings tomorrow. What the company could say about the weight loss, drug space and looming tariffs on the industry. Plus, Palantir loses its top spot at the top of the S and P leaderboard. And what we should hear from the Magic Kingdom when Disney reports tomorrow morning and Uber readies its own Q1 report. Will it widen its gap with rival lift? We'll debate that. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from CDP at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Dan Nathan, Guy Damian, Michael Schumacher, Wells Fargo Securities Global head of Macro Strategy. Welcome to you Michael. Well, stocks lowers investors get ready for tomorrow's Fed decision. The Dow leading the losses down almost a percent, but all three major indices extending their losses for the week while 10 year yields tick lower. We'll get more on what to expect from the central bank in a few minutes, but we start off with a double dose of earnings from the semi sector. AMD jumping on better than expected data center revenue while Super Micro falling after officially cutting its sales and earnings forecast for the year. Christina Parsonneville Scott, all the details is here on set.
- [02:16]
Christina Partsinevelos
Hi Christina, I'm so I start with Supermicro because shares are under pressure like you mentioned, over 3% lower after the company delivered weaker guidance, even after last week's warning that they were going to do so. The CEO pointed to customer purchase delays for data center technology, though he attempted to reassure customers, or I should say everyone today in the releasing quote. We do expect many of those commitments to land in the June and September quarters, but cautioned that tariffs could create short term headwinds for the server maker. Why you're seeing shares lower AMD on the other hand popping over or almost 4% after hours on strong performance, specifically in his bread and butter business. That would be data centers and client segments. Traders are going to be listening closely on the call right now that begins about any hints about tariff related demand pulling similar to what intel reported not too long ago. AMD's outlook is showing impressive confidence despite these headwinds, projecting 7.4 billion in sales while absorbing and this we already know the hefty $800 million hit from US export restrictions to AI chips in China, which could be a lot bigger impact to revenue. This quarter though really just illustrates the tug of war playing out in AMD's business model. Right now you've got traditional segment strength while China related ambitions face these regulatory hurdles. Tune in though for more tomorrow at 9am When CEO Lisa Su joins CNBC Squawk on the street for her first post earnings chat.
- [03:35]
Melissa Lee
What's interesting Christine, I mean if you take these two reports you can try and triangulate what Nvidia might say on May 20 when it reports its earnings. I mean of course Jensen Huang spoke today. We'll get to some of that interview later on. But amd, which is seen as sort of, it would be hurt more from the, from the export restrictions out of China actually did okay with that front. But Nvidia is also very tied into Super Micro so you have sort of a push and a pull dynamic.
- [04:00]
Christina Partsinevelos
Yeah, I guess the portion of total revenues for AMD is a larger portion goes towards China so that's the concern as well. They're late latest AI chips, you know, haven't really the 300 series. My 300 series really is not up to par just yet and so that's a concern. And there's a lot riding on the next 400 series chips that are coming out next year. So that is something for AMD to consider. Super Micro though, what does that tell you about the company if they're delaying? Is it because of the hopper? Customers want to wait for the greatest server who knows at this point.
- [04:29]
Guy Adami
You and Christine were just talking about Marvell pulling their basically June 10th investor day. I think they're postponing it.
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Melissa Lee
Yep.
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Guy Adami
So I think about that and that juxtapose it, Christine, with the fact that AMD actually gave good guidance.
- [04:40]
Christina Partsinevelos
Yeah, 7.4 billion.
- [04:41]
Guy Adami
So you have to wonder how do they have that kind of clarity? I mean I think it's encouraging because we haven't seen it in a while.
- [04:47]
Christina Partsinevelos
From amd and in the release they said nothing about tariffs or a super micro blame tariffs for the short term. So you really have two sides of some saying, you know, addressing it head on, whereas like intel, whereas others are saying no, we're not seeing any impact just yet. Like TSMC for example.
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Melissa Lee
It's also a little concerning, I would say. I don't know what your take on is saying. Basically it's going to be sort of a back end loaded year for Supermicro. Right.
- [05:09]
Christina Partsinevelos
I mean a lot of these companies.
- [05:11]
Melissa Lee
How can you possibly, I mean if it's uncertain now, I don't know what the environment's going to be in a month or two.
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Christina Partsinevelos
And yet. So then to your point, that could be applied to every single company out there. We keep asking and searching for these answers in the reports from these CEOs and most CEOs are just saying, I don't know, you take these write downs, $800 million for AMD, 5.5 for NVID, that's going to be a lot bigger and they don't have a crystal ball. Right. So I feel like everybody's searching for something that we're not getting a concrete answer just yet. So any bit of positive news is seen in the, in the stock reaction.
- [05:44]
Dan Nathan
You know, it's funny. So you know, usually as a rule of thumb, you see, you know, AMD, they got up, you know, 3, 4% or something like that. The stock's up 3, 4%. The stock's down 60 some percent from its highs last year. I mean the market has basically said that these guys are not a player in this space. They're not, you know, a competitor for all intents and purposes to Nvidia. But K parts, when you put that together with this back, you know, back end loaded sort of situation in my career, especially with tech, anytime you hear this is going to be back end loaded, rarely does it materialize in the way that you're hoping for in the pushout. So I'm just curious like as you think about it as a mosaic, what we've heard over the last Two weeks. Do you find the semis, do you find what they've had to say encouraging? You know, as we lead into over the next two weeks with Nvidia because like to Mel's point, a lot really hangs on on the balance for what you know, I guess Nvidia has to.
- [06:28]
Christina Partsinevelos
Quickly to your point, AMD hasn't been, you know, very popular, so not very owned which is why maybe you're seeing more positive reaction in the share price. I do feel that there's too much riding on the second half of this year and I feel like that confidence is not going to follow through necessarily because there's the warnings from so many other of the non AI plays and I think we should really factor that in. Chips are cyclical, right? So Nvidia may come out and do really well. AMD is a lot stronger but overall smh Vaneck ETF just not doing as well. And so I think we have to remember the cyclical nature of these companies.
- [07:05]
Melissa Lee
Christina. Thank you Christina. Parts nevertheless, how do you feel about back end loaded guidance? Not very good.
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Michael Schumacher
No, not good at all. I mean think about that in contrast with the Federal Reserve tomorrow. Melissa, so what is the Fed likely to tell us? Chair Powell is going to say we just don't know and if we don't know, why should we act? So it's really flipping it around. Corporates seem more confident at least given Christina's comments. The Fed I think will be much less confident tomorrow.
- [07:28]
Guy Adami
You know but I am interested to see like why again MARVELL Postponing a June 10 date. AMD being able to give guidance for a quarter. I mean it's a tale of two cities right now. And I think, listen, AMD has been awful. We've actually talked about it, we've been pretty critical. But in my opinion this quarter and the guidance is enough at least to get it back to the March high with if you pull up a chart was about 115.
- [07:50]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, the Marvel thing is not great for a couple of reasons. Like one of the, I guess, you know, headwinds to Nvidia would be this custom silicon, right. The fact that Microsoft and you know, these major microstellar hyperscalers, Google Cloud, they're working with, you know, companies like Broadcom and Marvell to create their own chips. We know that Google has their TPUs, this tensor processing unit, right. So going forward, you know, Nvidia is going to have more competition if AMD were ever to get their act together, if the performance of some of their chips are matching that of Nvidia and then they can compete on price a little bit because they're trying to take some market share back. You know, a lot of things point to some headwinds as it relates to Nvidia. We say this every quarter. We've done it for the last two years. You know, this is going to be a really important event for this trade. I just think there's been very few good headlines for Nvidia, so they're going to have to put up a big beat and raise, I think, for this stock to keep going or kind of reverse the course lower to, you know, get back towards this high.
- [08:46]
Melissa Lee
Let's take a listen to what Jensen Huang had to say about China's market earlier today on Power Lunch. China is a very large market. It's probably going to be a $50 billion AI market in a couple of two, three years. It would be a tremendous loss not to be able to address it as an American company. It's going to bring back revenues, it's.
- [09:08]
Michael Schumacher
Going to bring back taxes, going to.
- [09:09]
Christina Partsinevelos
Create lots of jobs here in the United States.
- [09:13]
Melissa Lee
And that really underscores the point that they don't know. Because if it's going to be a huge market and be a huge loss for companies like Nvidia to not participate in that growing China market, then export restrict now will certainly hit them sooner rather than later.
- [09:27]
Guy Adami
No question about it. I mean, he's, I think he's been trying to sort of curry some favor with this administration. It all sort of makes sense. And listen, as a CEO of a publicly traded company, you have a fiduciary responsibility to do exactly that. The question is, you know, are they in the crosshairs right now? I will tell you and Christine just mentioned, in terms of the smh, I mean, this is a space that is not traded particularly. You've seen bounces along the way, but, you know, in video at 113, yes, it's bounced off the lows, but since January has not been a particularly good stock.
- [09:53]
Dan Nathan
These export controls, they're not about chat apps or picture apps or this and that, whatever making them better. They're about, like, sovereign AI. They're about the very issues that we think about when it comes to investing in defense and the like. So if we're going to ship our backstack, our best technology to China and we're going to actually be in the, in the midst of a trade war, it just doesn't make any sense. So, Jensen, go to Mar A Lago. As much as you want to try to curry favor at the end of the day, you know, there's more important things that are basically going to kind of have to take hold of this industry pretty soon. Whether it's a year or two. We've been talking about this. There is going to be considerable regulatory oversight of this industry. It needs to happen for all the reasons we're talking about. Really from a national security standpoint.
- [10:32]
Michael Schumacher
Yeah, it's hard to make the case with just massive tariffs on China that the administration's tone is going to shift anytime soon. We're not getting any sense of that. Are they actually talking to China? We don't know, Besson said. Well, sort of maybe kind of not clear. So what's the time frame? Don't know. What's the outcome? Probably not Good.
- [10:48]
Melissa Lee
Well, the 10 year yield dropping after better than expected demand of today's treasury auction. The results calming fears that foreign buyers are avoiding U.S. debt as a protest against tariffs. The move in rates coming ahead of tomorrow. Tomorrow's Fed decision, the first since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs at the start of April. Let's get more on what we can expect from the Fed tomorrow. Bring in CNBC contributor and former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. Richard also served as the U.S. trade Representative and is now a senior adviser at Jefferies. Richard, it's always a pleasure to welcome you to Fast Money. Great to have you.
- [11:18]
Richard Fisher
Honor to be with you guys.
- [11:19]
Melissa Lee
What do you think the Fed should do? Not what the Fed will do should do.
- [11:25]
Richard Fisher
I think it's like any other business. They can't make a decision here. Given all the uncertainty, how do you model out the economy going forward and make decisions where you don't know what the variables are? So I don't expect anything tomorrow and I may not even be expecting anything in June. We'll have to see. We need clarity. If we don't have clarity on what's going to impact the economy, then I can't see them making a firm decision here.
- [11:54]
Melissa Lee
When do you expect the impact of tariffs to flow through to the hard data? Some economists are saying May, which would give them a possible data point for that June meeting coming up.
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Richard Fisher
You know, it really depends. Agreements in principle don't give you much guidance there. I'm expecting them to make some announcements, but let's say they do. Agreement of principle with Korea. Korea's in the middle of an election cycle. They have to go to their own legislature. They have to go to their own lobbies. I negotiated the opening of Vietnam when I was in the Clinton administration as deputy U.S. trade rep. You Know, when it was finally signed, we got all the specifics done after four years of work by the Bush administration. So these things and every manufacturer I talk to and every business I talk to, what they're interested in are the specifics statements, not just the grand, sweeping statements. So I think market operators need to be very, very careful here. If we get these announcements, it doesn't tell you very much. It tells you intent. And then the nuts and the bolts have to be worked out. We have a very good USTR right now. It may be that he can move us faster than anybody else been able to do before him, but we'll just have to see.
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Dan Nathan
Hey, Dick, when you were a Fed president, I assume that there were times in which you would vote within that room. And, you know, a lot of what goes on there, from what I understand, is the Fed chair tries to kind of rally support for a different view. If you were considering what the dissenters would have to say, like, help us think through that right now, because it seems to be one of these things where it makes sense to most economists not to move right now. But I'm just curious, if you were in the room, where would some of that dissent come from?
- [13:36]
Richard Fisher
Well, I think they're. First of all, Jay Powell has been able to hold this group together pretty well. The dissent often comes from an honest disagreement. It's not harsh. I happen to dissent a few times and others did the same thing. And then typically, the chair will acknowledge your dissent, but then ask you if we are going to proceed as we have written it up, how would you make this better? You understand what we're trying to get done here. You've been overruled. Help us put into effect whatever we have decided. And so you work on the wording a little bit. We used to have a straw vote all the time. Bernanke was very good about that. Yellen was very good about it. And it was in that way that the statement gets formed. So were I at the table right now, by the way, I'd be arguing we don't have the clarity to make a decision. But I'm not at the table. I'm a retired dot, by the way, a former, former plotter. So, by the way, I hope we can talk about energy. There's a lot going on.
- [14:43]
Melissa Lee
We'll get to that in a minute.
- [14:45]
Richard Fisher
Trying to avoid this, forecasting what they're going to do.
- [14:50]
Michael Schumacher
When you think about the Fed not moving tomorrow and probably not in June, it sounds like that sets the stage for the Fed to have to go Bigger later. So almost bakes in the Fed being late and increases the chance that the economy tips toward. Maybe it's recession, maybe it's just a bad result, but the Fed has to get really aggressive late in the year. Do you think that's right? Do you agree with that line of thinking?
- [15:13]
Richard Fisher
I don't know. I mean, we'll have to see. First of all, a lot of data has to come forward before June. Perhaps more clarity. We'll just have to see. As this goes through time. It's unusual for the Fed, except for under dire circumstances, to make a dramatic move. And really what you're looking at when you're at the table is the health of the credit markets. It's not the stock market. Of course, you're worried about inflation, deflation, employment, unemployment. But the one thing that could force them to move dramatically is always going to be if the credit markets seize up, which is what we saw 2008, 2009, what we saw in March of 2020. And then you announce a new facility as well as perhaps rate cuts. So don't forget they're also trimming the balance sheet, but that's slowed down. They're getting close to the right size. So there are several tools you can employ, make announcements. You can create new facilities if you need to. They may not even be used, which is what happened 2020, or you can cut rates. So we'll have to see.
- [16:15]
Guy Adami
Mr. Fisher, you know I'm a fan. Have you noticed what's going on in the energy space? I mean, oil has obviously been a story. And I'll say this real quick, I mean, 10 years ago, this is probably not great for Texas, but the state is diversified maybe enough where they can withstand his thoughts.
- [16:29]
Richard Fisher
No, I think you're right. And let me just walk you through this because again, Jefferies, which I happen to be senior adviser to, handles 50% of all the transactions in the oil and gas and energy sector in the United States and is number one globally. So we talk about this a lot, you know, 56, $57 oil. What's going to happen there is the US producers are just going to lay down their rigs at the same time. By the way, they're suffering from the inflation and the cost of pipe and the cost of sand and all the things nails and screws have gone through the roof. You have to build a rig with. So I think basically, as someone has often said, low prices are cured by low prices. So I think they will lay down the rigs at these prices. They're not going to proceed. They're getting twisted by inflation as well. And one of the interesting things though is we're seeing natural gas prices rise significantly, and that's due to the expectations of what's going to finance or rather fuel AI. So we'll just have to see what happens here. But I think we have to be careful. Drill, baby, drill. Sounds good. I hope it works, but it doesn't seem to be working. And the oil patch guys that I talked to are not terribly happy. Now, what you have to understand about the Texas economy is oil and gas and mining in terms of employment only employ 1 1% of our working force in Texas. We are thoroughly diversified. And we now, of course in North Texas have become a financial center with Goldman Sachs having 5,000 people down here, JP Morgan having more people in North Texas than they do in New York. And if you listen to Jamie Dimon or you list the guys at Goldman or you listen to guys at Jefferies, we're saying this is where the future lies. And you know, I would urge you to take a look at what just happened today. And if you go outside the New York Stock Exchange today, you'll see people demonstrated to increase the transactions tax and restore it. And I think that's what Governor, the governor of New York wants to do. What do we do? Today, by huge majority in the Texas Senate and House, we made a constitutional amendment that we will not financial transaction taxes. And in addition to that, we changed the shareholder laws to compete with Delaware and Nevada. And so a lot is going on here. It's just acknowledging the fact that we are very diversified, in fact, equally diversified to the rest of the economy. And the service sector, particularly financial services, is playing a huge role here, which is why people have moved in this direction.
- [19:16]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [19:17]
Richard Fisher
So it's not just oil and gas in the tax economy. Please understand that. But what's happening in that sector is there's a slowdown again. Us producers are going to lay down their rigs if we stick in 56, $57 range.
- [19:31]
Melissa Lee
Richard, great to get your perspective. Thank you so much for joining us.
- [19:34]
Richard Fisher
I'm sorry to be such a Texas chauvinist, but that's.
- [19:38]
Melissa Lee
Well, you know, we called you up because we want to get that perspective. So we do appreciate it. Thank you, Richard.
- [19:43]
Richard Fisher
All right. Thank you.
- [19:44]
Melissa Lee
All right, Richard Fisher. Michael, do you think that cuts are back end loaded? Should we be prepared for that?
- [19:51]
Michael Schumacher
I do, actually, yeah. We do think the chance of pretty much what I laid out for Dick Fisher is coming to fruition. And the federal wait Wait, wait. It'll get clarity clear. It'll be not very good. So it'll have to come in and go pretty aggressively.
- [20:03]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
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Michael Schumacher
So I think chance of a hundred odd basis points second half of this year. It's increasing by the day.
- [20:08]
Guy Adami
Wow, four cuts by the end. I mean that's, you know again, what is that predicated on? Because the data has been soft but hasn't been catastrophic. And so I'm in the camp where less is more at this point and I think you're going to hear, I think a pretty hawkish Fed tomorrow which will not make the administration happy but I think that's the way they have to be.
- [20:26]
Melissa Lee
How will the markets interpret a very hawkish.
- [20:27]
Dan Nathan
Not good.
- [20:28]
Guy Adami
I don't think it will be good, but that's me.
- [20:30]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, silver lining over here. I mean the market marks down a few percent. Right. We just got that jobs number. GDP is going to be explained away. Interest rates 10 years basically exact same spot it was a year ago. I mean you can make the argument if you just looked at Q1 earnings in Q2 guidance. I saw some data from fact set today that it's a remarkably low list of companies that actually pulled their guidance. Now we just saw what Marvel is doing in some of these others. So if you just took a snapshot right here, you could say to yourself okay, maybe we priced in the worst case scenarios. That was in early April. That's the silver lining. The flip side of it is I'm probably more inclined to take Paul Tudor Jones's view about equities not really pricing in what, you know, kind of little worse than base case scenarios. You don't need worst case scenarios. And the other thing about yields, I mean they cut rates 100 basis points in September, November and December, you know what I mean? So I don't even think back end loaded. 100 basis points seems so aggressive still.
- [21:26]
Michael Schumacher
I mean if you look at other markets to think about the currency markets going absolutely crazy in a lot of respects. Yen's been all over the place. Taiwan dollar. When's the last time talked about the Taiwan dollar in the show? Probably not often. 6% in a couple of days. Euro's gone nuts. We were talking about parity for euro dollar beginning the year. Now it's 113. Big signals there I think that are tough to miss.
- [21:45]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, more earnings action to bring you shares of Revision Win Electronic Arts all on the move. After reporting the numbers we got the full details from the quarters next. And speaking of results, Palantir plunging After their earnings report last night when earnings and revenues beat was not enough to thrill investors and who they're teaming up with to bring AI into your finances. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. We got an earnings alert on rivian shares. The EV maker falls falling after hours after cutting its forecast. CNBC's Phillip O's got the latest. Phil. Hey Melissa. Good news, bad news in the Rivian report. Let's give you the good news off the top if you're a Rivian investor. A smaller than expected loss for the first quarter. They lost 41 cents a share. The street was expecting them to lose what, 76 cents a share gross profitability, 206 million. Why is that important? Two consecutive quarters with gross profitability means they unlock another $1 billion in financing from Volkswagen. Now the bad news and it has to do with the guidance when it comes to deliveries. The company has cut its 2025 delivery guidance to between a range of 40 and 46,000 vehicles. Just last month their guidance was 46,000 to 51,000. What changed? Call it uncertainty. Uncertainty with the consumer, uncertainty with tariffs. Here's CEO RJ Scaringe last hour but.
- [24:28]
Dan Nathan
As you said, there's a lot of uncertainty both in terms of our cost structure on CapEx. That's equipment rip with the trade and tariff situation we are reflecting more capex spend for the same content.
- [24:41]
Melissa Lee
And we're also looking at the overall.
- [24:43]
Dan Nathan
Consumer sentiment just more broadly in conjunction.
- [24:47]
Melissa Lee
With what's happening around trade. As you take a look at shares of Rivian over the last three months, keep in mind that they do maintain that they are on track to open the new plant that they are building in Georgia that will build their more affordably priced vehicle. That will happen next year. Quickly. Want to take a look at shares of Lucid? They posted a smaller than expected loss of $0.20 a share below the street estimate. The revenue coming in at $235 million, which is shy of what the street was expecting. But there is some optimism here because, Melissa, they have affirmed their guidance of building 20,000 vehicles this year. That's the two EV makers. Back to you guys. Got a question?
- [25:29]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I'm sorry, I'm sorry for everybody. Real quick. It's a rounding error for Amazon Venture, but they have like a 14% percent stake in Rivian. I guess my question to you is right, what's the game plan? Like, why?
- [25:42]
Melissa Lee
Well, they get electric delivery vehicles from Rivian and I suspect it's not just to get those vehicles from Rivian and to be the primary customer there. My guess is that they plan on using Rivian and its expertise when it comes to not just electric vehicles, but electric architecture in the future in other endeavors as well beyond the delivery vehicles that you see out on the street.
- [26:07]
Guy Adami
So I asked that question because would it be logical at some point? Now I'm asking you for Amazon just to say, you know what, this makes sense for our ecosystem. I don't know, I'm just throwing it out there.
- [26:19]
Melissa Lee
It's self driving.
- [26:20]
Guy Adami
Yeah. For a lot of different reasons.
- [26:21]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. It's become a super app, basically. It reverses into being a super app.
- [26:24]
Guy Adami
So it's not as ridiculous as, you know, anyway, I'm just throwing it out there, Phil.
- [26:27]
Melissa Lee
Thank you, Phil labeau. We will remind viewers, but I'm sure that they keep track of your acronym from year to year to year to year because way back when Rivian was in one of your acronyms.
- [26:38]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I mean the whole idea, and Phil mentioned this is like the bright spot is that they're losing less than folks expected. And you know this story and I made this case is not too different than let's say Tesla in 09, 2010, 2011. When you talk about some of the delivery numbers that they're talking about. I mean this is just a flyer if you think that this is going to be a big market. And this is purely anecdotal, but people in California. California are buying Rivian's over than going out and buying Tesla's right now. And then Tesla in California, first time they dropped below in the quarter that we just reported 50% as far as market share is concerned. Now Rivian nationally is like 5% market share, right? So, you know, there's a lot of opportunity there. They have to cut the losses even if they're not making or delivering a whole heck of a lot of cars. If they demonstrate that they can actually do this on a path to profitability. That was Tesla's whole story. So to me, me, you know, is it that attractive given what the EV market looks like? And if we're quoting Dick Fisher about the energy market, I think when crude oil goes to 50, I'm not saying it goes to 50, EVs are just that much less attractive.
- [27:35]
Melissa Lee
This is actually the second consecutive quarter with positive gross profit for Rivian. And it's got, I mean a key difference is that, but also it's got a lot of cash versus Tesla at that same similar stage. Right? A half billion is nothing to sneeze at at this point. Coming up, no longer the king of the hill. Palantir's post earnings drop knocked it out of the top spot in the S&P 500 this year. Is the high Flyers drop just a breather or sign of more pain to come? You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets at in Times Square, back right after this. How will you shape the future of industrials with confidence? Whether you need to define your strategy, optimize your supply chain or keep pace with data driven manufacturing, EY professionals understand.
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Dan Nathan
Industrials and the sectors they supply, bringing the insights that deliver real outcomes.
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Melissa Lee
With a full spectrum of services, EY helps strengthen your business from factory floor to product development and beyond.
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So when the global market shifts, your business is agile enough to adapt.
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Ey shape the future with confidence. First on cnbc, Uber's CEO quarterly results.
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Dan Nathan
Consumer demand and the outlook for growth.
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Melissa Lee
Before he talks to Wall street, he.
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Dan Nathan
Talks to SquawkBox tomorrow starting 6am Eastern.
- [28:51]
Melissa Lee
And streaming on CNBC. Calling all fast Money fans, join us for our next live event Thursday, June 5. This show encouraged me to get into.
- [29:02]
Christina Partsinevelos
Trading and I think I've become a.
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Melissa Lee
Much smarter trader from them.
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Dan Nathan
Watch the show, stay for an exclusive Q and A, meet the traders and.
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Melissa Lee
Leave with a special gift.
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Richard Fisher
This was an incredible experience.
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Melissa Lee
I loved being here and meeting these guys and it was just. The experience was awesome.
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Christina Partsinevelos
Never miss a show ever.
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Melissa Lee
So to find out how to navigate.
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Dan Nathan
This wild market environment. Get your tickets now.
- [29:24]
Melissa Lee
Just scan the QR Code or go to cnbc event.com backslash fast money welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Palantir dropping hard after reporting quarterly results yesterday. The defense tech company beating top and bottom line expectations but posting a decline in international sales sales. The company also announcing a partnership with Elon Musk's ex AI to bring AI into the financial services sector. Palantir has surged more than 300% over the past year. But today's move knocking the high flyer out of the top spot in the s and P500 in 2025. What do you think of the slide here?
- [30:01]
Dan Nathan
Makes sense. I mean this is in my nearly 30 years in the business, probably the most obscene stock I've ever seen. And when you think about this, it's trading at 66 times sales. If I told you that was a PE, you might might think that that's a little insane. Now the good news for them is that their earnings and sales estimates went up. And so maybe that helps justify some of the valuation, but not at 170 times earnings and 66 times sales for the current. The one thing I'll also say about that international sales is like if we have export bans on key chip technology, right? And 50% of their sales comes from the US government. If you are a foreign buyer of this technology, there's potentially interesting dynamics there, a you might not choose to use it. I don't know if this is like the whiz bang best technology there. I think it's somewhat of a first mover. And then might there be some bans on this sort of stuff? Might there be some folks that just don't want to buy us stuff? We keep hearing that more and more with less than a $4 billion revenue expectation for this year, it just doesn't make any sense to me.
- [30:59]
Melissa Lee
We got breaking news out of the White House here. President Trump just making some comments from the Oval Office. Megan Cassell has got the details. Megan?
- [31:06]
Christina Partsinevelos
Hey Mel. For President Trump for the second time today, talking about about the status of trade deals and making clear that his view of what a trade deal will look like in the coming days is something different from what most markets, investors and businesses have been expecting. Take a listen here to exactly how the president responds when he's asked about the status of forthcoming deals.
- [31:26]
Melissa Lee
Mistreated one was in for 512 days, one was in for 361, I guess days and one was in for a shorter period of time. The stories were unbelievable.
- [31:38]
Christina Partsinevelos
I said how many people are left? How many are left?
- [31:41]
Melissa Lee
They said 59. I said, oh, wow. And people and they said 59. And I said, really?
- [31:49]
Christina Partsinevelos
But they said he said there that he could announce 50 to 100 deals right now when he was asked about this, saying that because he's the shopkeeper and he sees the US As a store. When he spoke about this earlier today, he made clear he does not see any downside to cutting off all trade with China or with any other country. He thinks of it as no longer having a trade deficit. So that means we're not losing money anymore. So just at this moment, when everyone has been waiting for trade deals, when his administration has been talking for days now about deals that could be forthcoming, he's saying that the deal that he wants to see is simply naming a price, potentially a tariff for countries to have to pay in order to have to ship. His words in the United States that he could announce those at any time and maybe he will announce some, but it's not something that would have to be signed and it's not likely to be any sort of formal or enforceable agreement.
- [32:41]
Melissa Lee
MELISSA so can you help us compare and contrast some of the language used by other members of the administration regarding what they believe a timeframe is, because it sounded like it was a lot more concrete when Secretary Bessen was speaking to Sarah yesterday or Howard Lutnick was quoted on another outline outlet earlier this week.
- [32:58]
Christina Partsinevelos
They've been telling us for for several weeks now that deals are very, very close potentially in the next few weeks. Scott Bessant was on Capitol Hill today talking with lawmakers. He said he thinks 80 to 90% of all of the deals should be finished by the end of the year. So something of a long timeline, but significant when you think about how many countries they are negotiating with, and that he would not be surprised if one of those even came this week. Besson also said today that something he's said before, but repeating it today, that negotiations are moving forward with what he calls 17 of our 18 largest trading partners. But he said very clearly negotiations have not yet begun with China. So other administration officials signaling that sort of more significant deals could be forthcoming. And we know officials have been here for negotiations almost being undercut here by the president, who says 50 to 100 deals could be announced immediately if he wanted to do it, that all that matters is that countries are paying some sort of a price to come do business in the U.S. right.
- [33:54]
Melissa Lee
Megan, thank you. Meghan Casella, it sounds like there's a lot going on there in Washington with a lot of the trade partners, but the issue for the markets is there's no, it's a moving target, it seems.
- [34:05]
Michael Schumacher
Michael, there's no there there. I mean, the markets are going to want a lot more clarity than that. And I've talked to a lot of corporates recently, which I have to tell you, Melissa, generally is a bad sign. If people want to talk to me, it's because something's probably broken. And oh, well, you're the exception guy. I appreciate that. But nonetheless, when you think about actually having just Donald Trump or let's say Trump and Carney get together as they did today, have some sort of announcements, say we agree on next tariff, well, that can change tomorrow or next week or two weeks out. Companies want something they can actually plan around. I would tell you that if tariffs were put in place right now and the president came out and said, look, I'll leave them as is for the rest of my term, it would still take a while for people to believe that. They'd say, all right, let's see how he actually behaves. So my view is it's a bit of scarring going on. It takes time to get over that. But it's not 50 or 100 deals get announced this week or this month. That's really far fetched.
- [34:55]
Guy Adami
There's a wonderful show on, on this network from 6am to 9am familiar with that Squawk the Squawk Fox. I love the favorite show, no doubt. But it's also Paul Tudor Jones was on today. And encourage people to listen to just what Megan said and all the things we're talking about. And now not juxtapose a bit. Listen to what Paul Tudor Jones said this morning about the ability to cut these tariffs back by whatever percentage. And he still think this is a market that's going to make, you know, lows lower than we saw on April 2nd or 3rd.
- [35:26]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, pharma in focus as the FDA names a new top vaccines official. Why that pick has turned, turning a few heads and what to expect out of Novo Nordisk ahead of results tomorrow. All that when FAST MONEY returns. Welcome back to FAST money. The FDA making a controversial pick to lead its biologics and vaccine division. Our Angelica Peebles has got the details on that Angelica. Hey, Mel. So, yeah, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary naming Vinay Prasad as director of the center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. So in that role, he'll oversee the regulation of biologic drugs, vaccines and the nation's blood supply. Now Prasad's day job is a professor and doctor at the University of California, San Francisco. But among biopharma, he's better known for his very active online presence. He has a substack, he's all over X. You can hear him on podcasts and there he's quite vocal about his criticism of the fda. So he's accused his predecessor, Peter Marks, of rubber stamping unproven products. And he wants to see harder outcomes for drugs like a survival benefit for cancer drugs that would require longer studies and of course, much more money to run those trials. He's also skeptical of accelerated approvals, a pathway that Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug maker Sarepta has used. Look at that stock down 24% after hours. And it got hit especially hard today during normal hours. He's also criticized the COVID vaccine rollout, particularly the use of boosters. He's thrown doubt on cancer vaccines and that's a double whammy for Moderna since they of course have their COVID vaccine vaccine and they're also developing a cancer vaccine that stock down about 12% today. And he's critical of gene therapy. So Verve, Intellia, Beam, those are just some of the names that fell hard today on news of his appointment. So really broad impacts that we're seeing across the board today. Mel. All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. For more on all that, as well as what to expect from Novo Nordics tomorrow, let's bring in BMO Managing director and head of Healthcare Research, Evan Segerman. Evan, great to have you with us.
- [37:28]
Christina Partsinevelos
Thank you for having me.
- [37:29]
Melissa Lee
We've seen the reaction, the stocks. We saw the reaction. The biotech sector in General is down 5% very swiftly. On the, on the back of Dr. Prasad's appointment, it sounds like everything that he is advocating or advocating against will cost these companies a lot more money to bring drugs to market. Is that the bottom line?
- [37:45]
Christina Partsinevelos
Most definitely. And I think he's, he's a general skeptic of the industry, of all the things that FDA has kind of come up with to get drugs approved faster, accelerated approval, single arm trials for rare disease. He's a big skeptic, of course, of the COVID vaccines for those who are not immunocompromised and really at risk. So I think that there's just an overhang for the sector now.
- [38:04]
Melissa Lee
I mean, he's saying that he would want randomized trials of the boosters because otherwise you might, you're not testing every strain of the vaccine and therefore it can cause all sorts of side effects that we don't know about.
- [38:15]
Christina Partsinevelos
But you can't even really do a randomized trial for the booster at this point. It's not really ethical and there's not enough Covid circulating around. So you have to just figure out where you. You're going to picture battles.
- [38:24]
Melissa Lee
Okay, how? I mean the sector is one that has struggled under negative sentiment. This just adds to it. Is this investable?
- [38:33]
Christina Partsinevelos
I think the biopharma sector I think is investable. Human health is very important. I think we definitely have a lot of headwinds. Farmer tariffs, which we can talk about as well have been an overhang and a theme of earnings. And if you listen to any management team over the past earnings cycle, they don't know the answer because I don't think anyone does. Does we have Novo reporting tomorrow which we'll touch on. You know I could see them get hit with some tariffs as they make their product overseas. But I do think the sector is investable. But we are definitely facing headwinds.
- [39:00]
Guy Adami
Well, that was going to be my question. Is Novo out of the woods? I mean we've talked about it now for a while. I've been wrong for probably $40 to the downside, but has it found a place where, you know, good news is going to be sort of championed and bad news is sort of in the stock already?
- [39:14]
Richard Fisher
So.
- [39:14]
Christina Partsinevelos
So last week we had two bits of good news. One, they indicated that they are offering their 499 WeGovy on all telehealth platforms you saw with hims and then also got an exclusive deal with CVS Caremark where WeGovy is the exclusive anti obesity medication as of July 1st for many of their formularies. Tomorrow what I'm focused on trends with GLP1 so WeGovy script numbers have not looked good and I think a lot of folks are concerned that they might have to cut the guy. But do they punt that to 2Q because they're going to point to compounders going away March 20 and May 22 and of course the CVS kind of formulary bit so we could see them. You know, numbers could be squishy. They may punt it. And I think to your point that makes it a bit, you know, harder to invest in. I'm also concerned about Orphic Lipron. We had some data from Lilly a few weeks ago.
- [40:07]
Melissa Lee
We got more in 3Q. Would you rather Eli Lilly or Nova right here, right now?
- [40:11]
Richard Fisher
Eli Lilly.
- [40:12]
Melissa Lee
Okay.
- [40:13]
Christina Partsinevelos
You know, I think Dave Ricks really understands the moment when it comes to the political side of things or for clip on is going to be a fantastic drug we have the data.
- [40:20]
Melissa Lee
Evan, great to see you. Thank you. Thanks for having me in. Bmo Coming up, what to expect out of Disney's earnings report tomorrow and how our traders see that stock faring after a rough start to the year at the trade when Fast MONEY returns. Welcome back to FAST money. Disney on deck to report earnings before the bell tomorrow. The media giant, already facing potential headwinds from slowing consumer demand, could now have to also contend with tariffs on the film and streaming industry. Julia Borson has more on what to expect from tomorrow's results. Julia? Hey, Melissa. Beyond Disney's fiscal Q2 earnings, the big question is what CEO Bob Iger says about how Disney Disney is positioned to ride out a downturn given its exposure to the macro environment and new potential threat of film tariffs. Disney has three key areas of exposure to consumer and corporate spending. First, its Parks and Experiences division, responsible for 60% of Disney's operating income. The parks recently raised prices and would be hurt by a pullback in foreign travel. Second, Disney's ad revenue on linear and streaming, which Morgan Stanley warns will suffer from broader ad softness as a result of economic uncertainty. Uncertainty. And third, there's the question of how much its streaming business could suffer from a pullback in consumer spending. After Disney plus lost subscribers last quarter following a price hike, the company did warn it expects to see continued churn in Disney plus this quarter. Morgan Stanley writing that they believe a lot of macro risks for Disney are already priced into the stock, saying, quote, with shares down 20% year to date, the net result is an attractive risk reward, but one that may take time to play out as the market looks for visibility into the degree, if any, a weaker macro impacts earnings. And Raymond James writes that while Disney's parks make it more exposed to broader potential economic pressure or travel impacts, they also insulate Disney from potential pressure on the entertainment division, including the issue of international tariffs. Now, analysts are bullish that Iger will show progress and his goals to grow streaming and continue turning around the studio. 75% of analysts have a buy and 22% have a hold on the stock. Back over to you. All right, Julia, thank you, Julia boorstin. And I guess that's a key question. How much is Disney priced in and how do you gauge what's priced in? If we don't really know what that macro environment is going to be in the second half of the year, there's.
- [42:41]
Guy Adami
No way they can know. I mean, a lot of me clearly, if you think about what we believe to be the slowdown of the consumer I mean Disney does not win there. But at $92 is a price in. I think this is a really important quarter. The second iteration of Bob Iger has not been particularly good. Actually has to start to deliver and I think tomorrow's a quarter. They're going to do it.
- [43:00]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [43:01]
Michael Schumacher
The macro risk is high. Melissa, We've been talking about that all show. It's not going away. Disney seems exposed. I'll leave it to these gentlemen to talk about the stock per say. But in general the uncertainty level is so high and I was thinking about those three components of the business. Each one is impacted a lot by events in D.C. how can you really have a lot of a good window into those.
- [43:18]
Dan Nathan
You see what he just did?
- [43:19]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [43:20]
Dan Nathan
Called this gentleman calls us panelists. Well, that's, I mean for different gentlemen is nice. I mean I'm down with that. Thank you, Michael.
- [43:30]
Michael Schumacher
Absolutely.
- [43:30]
Dan Nathan
You're a gentleman. The thing about Disney is that it hasn't gone anywhere in 10 years. You know what I mean? And trading near this level is trading where it was at the lows of COVID Think about the height of uncertainty now. It did double from there, you know what I mean? And that was a bit of a Covid sort of frenzy. But I think to your point, I mean Iger's got to pull a rabbit out of hat and there's lots of hats right now like that need to be pulled. So I think this is a tough one.
- [43:53]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, it's not just Disney on deck. Two rideshare stocks getting ready to report this week as well. Our traders are setting up ahead of Uber and Lyft results next. Best money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. We are getting ready for to ride share reports. Uber results due out tomorrow before the bell. While Lyft numbers will cross Thursday afternoon. The names really diverging in 2025. Lyft shares flat for the year. Uber's surged more than 40%. Uber of course and I don't have to remind the viewers is the untube.
- [44:29]
Guy Adami
No, it's really. It's really doing justice to my tube this year. I mean Uber and Alibaba above. This is where it gets really interesting, right? I mean we had that huge run up early in the year. Then the precipitous sell off on the back of some news about I think Waymo and some news about Tesla and all different things. Stock got right back on its horse. Valuation is a little stretch where prior highs. But I think Uber is going to continue to surprise people.
- [44:53]
Melissa Lee
The upside malms Is it better because it's diversified?
- [44:57]
Richard Fisher
Probably.
- [44:57]
Dan Nathan
I mean, Doordash had some interesting results this morning. They had to make a couple acquisitions that I thought were pretty interesting. So they're trying to broaden out their scope geographically. I mean, I think, you know, UberEats, which a lot of folks were not happy about shareholders when they bought it. I think it's been a really important business. You know, Lyft is one that it just, it's been in a lot of our acronyms over the last few years.
- [45:17]
Melissa Lee
And shoved into them too, after the fact. It still didn't work out.
- [45:21]
Dan Nathan
Wasn't pretty. But you know, again, this is one, it's got a $5 billion enterprise value and they're sticking around. And I think it's important to have a number two player here. But I still think that they're an acquisition target for somebody who wants to build some form of fleet technology in the Bravo space.
- [45:36]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Michael schumacher. Yep.
- [45:49]
Michael Schumacher
So U.S. treasury yields Melissa up a little bit tomorrow because Powell's hawkish maybe five basis points in the 10 year but over the next three months down. So we'll put the 10 year just below for three months time.
- [45:59]
Melissa Lee
All right, thanks for joining us, Michael.
- [46:00]
Dan Nathan
Dan, nice to have a proper gentleman on the desk. I mean lift I think gaps down towards 10.
- [46:05]
Guy Adami
I think by guy a collective Happy birthday to Tim Seymour. Steely eyed Southwest Air. Mel comes out love.
- [46:13]
Melissa Lee
All right, thanks for watching Fast Mad Money. Your Jim Cramer starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer with the President pressuring the Fed to cut rates and the outlook uncertain, how will the Fed balance the threat of lower growth and higher unemployment?
- [47:06]
Dan Nathan
Fed Chair Powell's message to investors power lunch Wednesday, 2 Eastern and streaming on CNBC.