CNBC "Fast Money" Podcast Summary

Episode: Fed Flying Blind Ahead Of Rate Decision… And A Homebuying Bummer
Date: October 28, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Tim Seymour, Bono, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
Notable Guests: Christina Parts Nevelos (CNBC), Evan Brown (UBS), Mike Fratantoni (Mortgage Bankers Association)

Overview

This episode zeroes in on two major market themes:

• Nvidia’s meteoric rise following the GTC event, partnerships, and AI infrastructure dominance
• The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, made more uncertain by a lack of jobs data and mounting white-collar layoffs
  Additional highlights include housing market woes, a big AI-payments tie-up (OpenAI & PayPal), US-China trade relations, and sector-specific stock action.

1. Nvidia's $5 Trillion Sprint & GTC Takeaways

Nvidia's Stock Surge and GTC Announcements

• Nvidia jumped nearly 5%, adding over $230B in market cap—almost a ‘Goldman Sachs’ in a day ([00:47])
• GTC, dubbed the “Super Bowl of AI,” delivered news on $500B in orders for Blackwell & Rubin chips through 2026 — exceeding even the most bullish Street estimates
• High-profile partnerships announced with Uber, CrowdStrike, Palantir, Nokia, Lowe’s, and the US Department of Energy

Christina Parts Nevelos Reporting from GTC (Washington, D.C.)

• Shares rose post-keynote after Jensen Huang’s $500B chip order disclosure, which doesn’t even count the networking business or China ([02:01])
• Discussion of “agentic AI” and partnerships, like with Palantir for digital business twins (e.g., replicating Lowe’s work environments)
• Optimism about US-China relations and potential for further upside if China joins the buying spree ([03:45])

Panel Reactions

• Virtuous Cycle & Market Cap Growth: “What’s very, very special... we’re going to be able to move 2x and I think in the future even faster... you can do manufacturing in America.” — Palantir CEO at GTC, via Christina ([03:24])
• Jensen Huang’s Political Playbook: Moving the conference to D.C. to engage President Trump (who’s preoccupied with China talks), and emphasizing “Make America Great Again” ([04:31])
• Analyst Estimates and Risk: Street estimates for chip demand blown away by Nvidia’s numbers—analysts were expecting $350-400B in orders, not $500B ([06:24])

Valuation & Market Risks

• Dan Nathan: "This is a company now that's a price approaching 19 times revenue, which is a big number at this mature of a company... People say it's a new paradigm...We shall see." ([07:35])
• Tim Seymour: Raises questions about circular investments (Nvidia partnering, financing, and benefiting from chips being sold to partners) and risks of “financialization” ([08:08])
• Bono: Acknowledges financial engineering but says Nvidia’s got its “tentacles” into every facet of AI—and even $5–$6T might be low if they’re that central ([09:45])
• Melissa Lee: "They've gone from hardware to platform to software to all of it. They're in the middle." ([12:43])

Competition Still a Cloud on the Horizon

• Dan Nathan: "If competition does come, that obviously changes the entire narrative." ([13:06])
• Tim Seymour brings up Palantir’s 100x sales valuation to highlight risk of momentum over reality ([13:46])

2. Fed’s Upcoming Rate Decision & Labor Market Turmoil

White-Collar Layoffs Mount

• Amazon: 14,000 job cuts
• UPS: 48,000 payroll cuts in 2025
• Meta, Starbucks, Target also trimming staff
• Market is betting these job cuts are enough for the Fed to cut rates through year-end—even as hard data is scarce following the government shutdown ([14:24])
• Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan): Advising managers not to hire until the impact of AI is clearer

Panel Commentary

• Dan Nathan: "I'm one of the people that think...the unemployment rate is going to move in a measurable fashion higher over the next couple of quarters... at some point, bad news is bad news." ([15:17])
• Melissa Lee: "If we get 50 bips tomorrow, insanity lives." ([15:51])

Economic Data Gaps

• Lack of fresh jobs numbers leaves Fed in the dark, relying on company anecdotes and regional Fed surveys
• Panel questions how deeper white-collar layoffs will impact the economy, with mid-office jobs most at risk ([16:06])

3. Multi-Asset Strategy & Market Positioning (with UBS’s Evan Brown)

Economic Crosscurrents

• Economy is “strange”: robust GDP but softer labor
• “The soft labor market is what's getting the Fed to cut. And just history shows when the Fed is easing and the economy is holding up and earnings are strong, that's some of the best returns that you get in equities.” — Evan Brown ([18:43])

What Unemployment Rate Spooks the Market?

• It's not the level, but the speed of change: “If we start seeing the speed pick up, if we start seeing initial jobless claims spike... then I think we're in okay shape.” — Evan Brown ([19:19])

Positioning and Asset Allocation

• "We're leaning into what's working," but financials are overweighted.
• China is “a lot cheaper way to play [the AI] theme. Less crowded...” — Evan Brown notes China’s focus on efficiency and immediate AI applications, versus US ambitions for “superintelligence.” ([20:47])

AI Impact & Productivity vs. Jobs

• Growing divide between job openings (down 30% since GPT launched) and stock market (up 70%) ([21:21])
• Potential for major public policy debates if AI-driven unemployment mounts: “That time might actually come sooner than we expect.” ([21:59])

4. US-China Geopolitics & Trade

• Upcoming: Trump-Xi Meeting—trade, TikTok, artificial sweeteners, fentanyl, soybeans all on the table ([25:28])
• US pressuring for rare earths and tariffs tied to chemical exports
• Trump touts $10B Toyota investment, up to $400B; longest Toyota winning streak since 2017
• China/Asia Market Play: Potential for Chinese and Japanese stocks to outperform if a new trade deal emerges — “I think China [stocks] will go up one and a half times [that of the US]” — Dan Nathan ([27:30])
• Discussion of Japan’s deepening partnership (“refresh” with the US), and the strategic importance of Southeast Asia

5. Housing Market Bummer — Persistence of High Rates

Interview: Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association

• Even with expected Fed cuts, 30-year mortgage rates could remain above 6% “through at least 2028” ([34:23])
• Mortgage rates are tied more to 10-year Treasury yields, which will be pressured by rising term premiums, inflation fears (particularly from tariffs), and government debt/deficits
• 2023 was the bottom; improvement is slow. Home sales up in 2026 by ~5%, but main change is more inventory available; home prices flattened ([35:40])
• Builders busy, but existing owners more willing to list
• First-time buyers have acclimated to higher rates, but former ‘move-up’ buyers (with 3% rates) stay put; market skews to new entrants ([36:51])
• Builders’ practice of ‘buying down’ mortgages (temporarily lowering rates) will continue as inventory stays high ([38:05])

Panel Reaction

• Higher rates + price fatigue = possible home price pressure ahead ([38:49])
• Higher-for-longer rates could boost demand for rentals and add to inflation ([39:12])
• Homebuilder stocks haven’t bounced, potentially signaling continued pain ([39:34])

6. Big Tech & Payments — OpenAI/PayPal, Visa Results

OpenAI and PayPal Partnership

• PayPal stock up as much as 13% on OpenAI integration — ChatGPT users can make payments in-platform ([31:06])
• Panel agrees it is a “holy grail” for PayPal, though questions remain about exclusivity and duration of competitive advantage
  • "OpenAI probably has 800 million monthly active users. They're going to have 1 billion, 2 billion, 3 billion, just wait it out." — Tim Seymour ([31:06])
  • "I'm long PayPal. ... They really have not been part of the new payment story. Now there is a new horizon." — Melissa Lee ([31:39])
  • "I'm not sure this is an exclusive deal with OpenAI... I just don't know how long the moment in the sun... for PayPal will last." — Bono ([32:12])

Visa Earnings

• Beat on EPS and revenue for Q4, with “healthy” US consumer spending
• Margins slightly below expectations, but international business strong ([40:10])
• "If the consumer kind of goes sideways meaning if we keep the same macro backdrop... I think this is great for Visa. I think it goes higher." — Melissa Lee ([41:10])

7. Fast Movers & Final Trades

Cameco (Uranium/Nuclear)

• Surged 23%+ on $80B deal with US government for reactors; sector-wide boost ([43:24])
• "Don't sell it, is my view." — Tim Seymour

Wayfair

• 3-year highs on 8% revenue jump and coping well with tariffs; shares up 140% YTD ([43:57])
• “I have a hard time getting behind this trade… after the move… I think I just let this one rest here.” — Bono

Celestica

• Up 5%+, 28% revenue growth; leverages AI data center builds (servers, switches)
• "If they can pull this chart, I mean, what's going on here in some of these names? It's just not that natural." — Tim Seymour ([45:09])

Final Trades

• Southern Copper: Copper going higher — Melissa Lee
• PayPal: Can't hurt you, says Tim Seymour
• Newmont: Money turning, Dan Nathan

Notable Quotes

• “What’s very, very special... is we’re going to be able to move 2x and I think in the future even faster... because you can control it in a more granular way, much faster, much cheaper... you can do manufacturing in America.” — Palantir CEO, via Christina, on Nvidia partnership ([03:24])
• "If we get 50 bips tomorrow, insanity lives." — Melissa Lee, on the idea of a shock Fed rate cut ([15:51])
• "China is just a lot cheaper way to play a theme... they're focused on efficiency and... on immediate applications." — Evan Brown, UBS ([20:47])
• "That time might actually come sooner than we expect." — Evan Brown, on public policy implications of AI-driven unemployment ([21:59])
• "Mortgage rates at least on average [are] not going to move too much from this sort of six to six and a half percent range we've been seeing.” — Mike Fratantoni, MBA ([34:23])

Important Timestamps

• Nvidia GTC Recap: [00:47]–[03:45]
• Panel Debates Nvidia Valuation & Risks: [07:35]–[13:46]
• Fed Decision, Labor Markets & Layoffs: [14:24]–[17:10]
• UBS’s Evan Brown on Market Opportunities: [18:43]–[23:23]
• US-China Trade/Tariff Talk: [25:28]–[28:58]
• Homebuying Bummer — MBA’s Fratantoni Interview: [34:23]–[39:45]
• OpenAI & PayPal, Visa Earnings: [31:06]–[42:06]
• Fast Movers (Cameco, Wayfair, Celestica): [43:24]–[45:49]
• Final Trades: [46:01]–[46:18]

Conclusion

This Fast Money episode delivers a comprehensive, rapid-fire review of how AI (specifically Nvidia), shifting Fed policy, and global politics are re-shaping markets, sector by sector. The tone is lively, but peppered with caution around valuation bubbles (AI, housing), macroeconomic blind spots, and the ripple effects of technology-driven disruption.