CNBC "Fast Money" – Episode Summary

Episode Title: GM Drives Higher… And Opportunities Overseas As The Dollar Falls
Air Date: January 27, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies)
Notable Guests: Phil LeBeau (CNBC), David Herro (Oakmark)

Overview

This episode centers on two major themes for investors:

1. The stunning earnings-driven rally in General Motors (GM) and what it means for the broader auto sector, including valuation and the evolution of legacy automakers.
2. The evolving landscape of global investing as the U.S. dollar hits multi-year lows, driving capital flows and valuation opportunities overseas.

The panel explores GM’s record-setting day, the strategic pullback from EVs, aggressive buybacks, and the company's new position in the domestic auto market. Additionally, they analyze the state of major tech stocks ahead of earnings, significant moves in Texas Instruments and semiconductor stocks, Amazon’s grocery strategy shakeup, and opportunities resulting from international equity discounts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. General Motors’ Blowout Quarter and Sector Implications

[01:03 – 07:00]

• GM surged nearly 9% – its best day since the post-bankruptcy era – after beating on Q4 earnings and providing strong 2026 guidance.
  • GM expects to raise adjusted profit margins (8–10%), greenlight more buybacks and a 20% dividend hike, and ramp production to 2 million units/year (poised to overtake Ford in U.S. assembly).
  • Aggressive $7.1B EV pullback and China restructuring charges were overshadowed by confidence in ICE vehicle margins.
• Panel consensus: GM is being revalued by the market; not the "old GM", with Mary Barra (CEO) credited for steering through supply chain and tariff issues.
  • Guy Adami: “GM has bought back almost 40% of their stock … the market is reassessing what the right val is for GM and they’re coming to the conclusion that, hey, wait a second, this is not the prior GM.” ([03:00])
  • Katie Stockton: “Every buyback has been a good one for a long time … Silverado, the margins there must have been really, really good. So they’re delivering a product people want.” ([03:42])
  • Price action: Consistent multiple doldrums (“higher single digits, but still very much in the single digits” – [04:48]), even as GM’s business appears structurally sound and cash-generating.
• Pullback from EVs: Seen as a positive for margins and near-term returns; Tesla’s lack of benefit from Detroit’s EV retreat discussed.

Phil LeBeau Interview Highlights

[07:00 – 11:30]

• On GM's difference from Ford:
  “One of the big differences between General Motors and Ford over the last three, four years – look at the warranty costs. There’s no comparison at all … We haven’t been saying that about General Motors. It’s a far different story. Far more efficient operation right now.” ([10:57])
• On auto pricing:
  GM holds premium pricing power (average transaction price $52K vs. industry at $50K) and can maintain margins even as tariffs bite ([09:33]).
• On Tesla's valuation:
  “I don’t think Tesla trades at all on its auto business … What their future rests on is autonomous—robo taxi, unsupervised, full self driving vehicles as well as robots. … That’s not happening anytime soon, regardless of what Elon Musk says.” ([08:09])

Takeaway:

• The market is finally starting to credit GM for cash generation, capital returns, and strategic discipline.

2. Big Tech Earnings: Setups & Options Activity

[12:04 – 17:02]

• Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla report tomorrow; Apple to follow.

• Market at all-time highs; tech stocks have rebounded after being oversold.

  • Dan Nathan: “If the fundamentals are basically in line to better, but the sentiment so poor, you get a move like that. …It’s a tough time to chase things.” ([12:19])

• Option market pricing indicates large but not extreme expected moves.

  • Tesla options implying a <6% move (historically over 9%).
  • Meta options implying a 6.5% move (average has been over 8.5%).
  • Mike Khouw: “Buyers of those [Tesla 440 calls] are risking about 2.4% of the stock price, betting that Tesla could regain the ground that it lost since Monday’s highs.” ([15:34])

• Trading Approaches:

  • Sideways consolidation expected unless there’s a major earnings surprise.
  • Karen Feiderman: “They all are kind of compelling in terms of the proximity of support. …Microsoft held the 450 area and even Tesla has some support that ideally it will recover around 440.” ([13:35])

3. Semis Surge: Texas Instruments and the AI Build-Out

[19:04 – 21:41]

• Texas Instruments (TXN) jumped ~9% post-earnings despite missing top/bottom line due to much stronger than seasonal Q1 guidance.

  • Christina Partsinevelos: “Industrial, their biggest end market, grew 18% YoY; data center revenue up 64% YoY…Texas Instrument isn’t making the AI chips but they are making the power management chips that handle data center infrastructure.” ([19:04])
  • Guy Adami: “People are saying, you know what, that’s a really good sign. …I think the move is justified. I don’t know how much more legs it has from here.” ([20:33])

• Analog recovery seen as an encouraging early cycle sign for broader semis.

4. Amazon Grocery Disruption & Grocery Stock Fallout

[26:30 – 29:42]

• Amazon closing Go/Fresh stores, refocusing on Whole Foods; grocery stocks (e.g., Sprouts, Kroger, Instacart/Maple Bear) slump.

  • Katie Stockton: “They’re just a juggernaut and … the logistics that they are capable of doing. Walmart interestingly gets a higher multiple than Amazon, I don’t know that it should.” ([27:32])
  • Dan Nathan: “It’s hard to see this [Instacart/Maple Bear] as a standalone for too much longer…If you’re trying to compete with the likes of Amazon, Walmart and Kroger.” ([28:40])

• Instacart/Maple Bear (CART):

  • Valuation “cheap” (~30% EPS growth, 10% sales growth, 75% gross margins, $1.8B in cash – [30:10]).
  • Buyout speculation emerges.

• Kroger (KR):

  • Near support; prior resistance now support—potential buy opportunity if sell-off continues.

5. International Investing: Dollar Weakness & Global Value

[31:41 – 39:51]

David Herro (Oakmark): Where Is the Value Overseas?

[33:19 – 39:15]

• Dollar’s drop has boosted DM and EM equity ETFs (France, Germany, Japan, Brazil near records).
• Foreign markets are still at a long-term discount:
  • “Foreign stocks trade at about a 14–15% discount to U.S. stocks…today we’re still at a 25, almost 30% discount. So you still have undervalued stocks with undervalued currencies…” ([33:33])
• Valuation disconnects:
  • Sectors: Pharmas (AstraZeneca, Roche, Novartis), luxury goods (Louis Vuitton, Kering, Richemont), consumer staples (Danone, Unilever).
  • European global champions are mispriced because of their headquarters, not their business mix.
• Japan skepticism: Returns skinny (ROE 8-9%), valuations not compelling for value investors.
  • “If you look at the average return on equity of a Japanese company, quite skinny, 8 or 9%... Price you pay about 18, 19 times. … But as value investors…the risk return just isn’t there.” ([37:42])
• Brazil highlighted (EWZ): Strong energy, materials, financials – a preferred trade for Guy Adami.

Emerging Markets Strategy

• EM performance is “dispersed”: Korea and Taiwan strong, China lagging—China/tech may offer “catch up” potential after underperformance. ([39:51])

6. Notable Single-Name Moves & Technical Setups

UnitedHealth (UNH) & Managed Care:

• UNH plunges ~20% on Medicare news (“worst day since last April”). The gap down happened as the stock neared resistance.
  • Karen Feiderman: “I mean, we have a short term breakdown, overbought downturns associated with this gap down and a lot of room to the next support. …For UNH, we have next support round 250.” ([41:24])

Bitcoin (BTC) Technicals:

• Bitcoin remains below $90K; panel sees “make or break” support level.
  • Karen Feiderman: “It’s sort of the last chance for bitcoin to hold this support.” ([43:23])
  • Guy Adami: “The good news is we’ve tested it a couple of times and bounced. The bad news is we’ve tested it a couple of times…You need to have this above 95,000 over the next couple of weeks. Otherwise I think it’s a foregone conclusion we trade lower.” ([45:01])

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• Guy Adami [03:00]: “GM has bought back almost 40% of their stock… and they're coming to the conclusion that, hey, wait a second, this is not the prior GM and Mary Barra…she’s done an extraordinary job.”
• Katie Stockton [03:42]: “Every buyback has been a good one for a long time. At this rate, I mean, they’ll have bought back more than half the stock within a couple of years.”
• Phil LeBeau [10:57]: “One of the big differences between General Motors and Ford…look at the warranty costs. There’s no comparison at all.”
• Dan Nathan [12:19]: “If the fundamentals are basically in line to better, but the sentiment so poor, you get a move like that.”
• Karen Feiderman [13:35]: “They all are kind of compelling in terms of the proximity of support…I think there’s more room near term to run.”
• Christina Partsinevelos [19:04]: “Industrial, their biggest end market, grew 18% YoY…data center revenue up 64% YoY… they are making the power management chips that handle data center electrical infrastructure.”
• David Herro [33:33]: “Foreign stocks trade at about a 14, 15% discount to U.S. stocks…today we’re still at a 25, almost 30% discount. So you still have undervalued stocks with undervalued currencies.”
• David Herro [37:42]: “If you look at the average return on equity of a Japanese company, quite skinny, 8 or 9%...Price you pay about 18, 19 times…But as value investors…the risk return just isn’t there.”

Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:03] GM’s Record Day, Q4 Earnings, and Structural Shift
• [07:17] Phil LeBeau’s GM CEO Insights, EV Pullback, Valuation, and Efficiency
• [12:04] Big Tech Earnings Setups, Option Market Analysis
• [19:04] Texas Instruments Results and The Analog/AI Story
• [26:30] Amazon’s Grocery Shakeup—Repercussions for Competitors
• [33:19] International Investing, Dollar Depreciation, Herro Interview
• [41:24] UnitedHealth (UNH) Tumble and Managed Care Technicals
• [43:23] Bitcoin Technicals & Buy Signals

Memorable Moments

• Panel camaraderie and banter:
  • Melissa Lee’s frosting story ([27:54]) lightens the mood amidst deep analysis.
  • Oranges and trust: “I get you two oranges and I have the peels to prove it. ...I trust you.” (Guy and Melissa, [29:47])
• Financial history lesson:
  • Dan Nathan: “Remember what happened with vendor financing...Sun Micro that were lending their customers money to buy their products went down 95%." ([22:09])
• Final Trades Recap:
  • Katie Stockton: Bullish on US Oil Fund (USO) for crude breakout. ([45:39])
  • Karen Feiderman: Sticking with Meta (“long the girl that brought me to the dance”). ([45:50])

Conclusion

This "Fast Money" episode nimbly navigates from GM’s fundamental shift and outsized returns to opportunities (and risks) in global markets catalyzed by dollar weakness. The panel delivers actionable ideas across sectors—autos, tech, semis, groceries, international—and dives deep into technicals and valuation frameworks, offering practical strategies for the dynamic 2026 investment landscape.