← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
GM Drives Higher… And Opportunities Overseas As The Dollar Falls 1/27/26
00:43:30
GM surging to a fresh record high as the automaker tops earnings expectations. The dividend and buyback announcements they’re making, and what CEO Mary Barra had to say about the company’s next move. Plus A look at overseas investing, as the weaker dollar boosts markets abroad. Where one portfolio manager sees the biggest discounts, and the foreign stocks that could climb even higher. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
A rich life isn't a straight line.
- [00:03]
Karen Feiderman
To a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward.
- [00:19]
Melissa Lee
Jones to help guide you through it all.
- [00:21]
Karen Feiderman
Because life is a winding path made.
- [00:24]
Melissa Lee
Rich by the people you walk it with.
- [00:26]
Karen Feiderman
Let's find your rich together.
- [00:28]
Melissa Lee
Edward Jones Member sipc Thy ticket, Lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs. Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times. With the times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?
- [00:54]
Dan Nathan
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [01:03]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Shares of GM rev up in their best day since October. The company beating earnings estimates for the 13th quarter in a row. What drove the gains and how much more can the stock accelerate from here? We'll debate that. And going global as the dollar hits nearly four year lows. Are there more opportunities to invest overseas? We'll talk to one top fund manager to find out where he is putting cash to work right now. Plus, unhealthy gains, moving moves, I say in shares of UnitedHealth. Someone seeing buy signals on the Bitcoin charts and max 7 earnings kick off tomorrow. What to expect from Metta, Microsoft and Tesla when the results cross the wires. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio be at the nasdaq on the desk tonight, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Gai Adami and Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies. Well, stocks ending the day mix the S and P at fresh all time highs and closing in on 7K. The Dow falling over 400 points largely tied to the drop in UnitedHealth with while the Nasdaq rose almost a percent ahead of big tech earnings kicking off tomorrow. We'll get more on that in just a bit but we shift gears now, so to speak to General motors surging nearly 9% to post bankruptcy highs after beating fourth quarter earnings estimates strong 2026 guidance also boosting shares. The company expecting adjusted profit margins between 8 and 10% this year. Earlier this month, GM PRE announced a $7.1 billion charge tied to its EV pullback and restructuring in China. Even with the Write downs the company today authorizing billion share buyback and a 20% hike in its dividend. It also expects to increase production to 2 million units a year, a move that would put the company ahead of Ford to become the top assembler of vehicles in the United States. Ford shares still managing to rise close to 4% today, while the other big three manufacturers, Salanta Stellantis, gained nearly a percent. So as GM's report changed the leaderboard for the automakers, I mean this is just a step staggering one day move here.
- [03:01]
Guy Adami
I don't think it changes the leaderboard. I think it just reinforces where the leaderboard has been for quite some time. I think collectively, I think we've talked about GM for a while. If Tim were here, he would say the same thing. I mean, I think you're in the midst of a revaluation. I think the market is reassessing what the right val is for GM and they're coming to the conclusion that, hey, wait a second, this is not the prior GM and Mary Barra. Say what you want, she's done an extraordinary job. GM has bought back almost 40% of their stock, 38% to be exact, over the last four years.
- [03:27]
Melissa Lee
20.
- [03:28]
Guy Adami
They're buying more stock back now. Maybe it takes a pause here. Three times normal volume. But you know, I think the stock continues to ratchet higher from here.
- [03:34]
Melissa Lee
Being able to lean into ice and producing more ice as opposed to EVs. That was a huge sort of green light for this sector.
- [03:42]
Katie Stockton
Yes. I mean, so there was a lot to love in this. I did buy some this morning after the earnings came out. I have a small position going in and I thought this was really great for a number of reasons. Obviously the numbers looked really good. I think Guy's point is really interesting. They bought back so much stock. Every buyback has been a good one for a long time. At this rate, I mean, they'll have bought back, you know, more than half the stock within a couple of years. So I like that about it. You've got to think that, I mean, Silverado, the margins there must have been really, really good. So they're delivering a product that people want, but that's really good. I think she's doing an extraordinary job in what has been a really difficult environment. When you think about all the supply chain issues, you think about the tariffs. They've been able to eat the tariffs in a way that allows them to still be profitable. The thing that's really interesting to me is obviously this is cyclical business. It hasn't been cyclical for the last few years though. It's been a good cycle and yet it doesn't seem to get anything but a cyclical multiple.
- [04:48]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [04:48]
Katie Stockton
I mean now it's in the higher single digits, but still very much in the single digits.
- [04:54]
Phil LeBeau
Right.
- [04:54]
Dan Nathan
And I guess it never really has. Right. Have these stocks ever traded with like a double digit multiple? I can't remember. Used to, like when they used to make the cars a guy used to, you know, like first of all, I'm just saying the big like things, the big patties, they're like, they can do that 15ft long.
- [05:09]
Guy Adami
That's muscle cars we call them.
- [05:11]
Dan Nathan
No, you know, I mean, listen, these are not. If they're being reevaluated, they're doing it right now. Like if you see like there's multiple expansion going on and Ford is a good example where you know, they're not going to get back to peak earnings for years at least the expectations, you know, one of the things, if you think about the pullback from EVs, this was part of the bull story. If you go back a few years ago and like this is great, you know, just do the ice things, you know what I mean? And that's what the people want. Give back the, the big cars. It is interesting though that Tesla has sold off about 13% into its report tomorrow where we've seen a lot of stocks rally into them at least since the bank earnings. And so to me the Tesla thing is interesting. You know, they're not talking about deliveries anymore. I mean they're just not. I mean a lot of analysts who are previewing this story, they're talking about robots, they're talking about Robey Taxi and which, which is a very interesting thing. And so you know, that is coming down to commentary because we know that there's not going to be a lot of actually hard news there. So again I just find that pretty interesting.
- [06:05]
Karen Feiderman
I like gm, I think, you know, when you see an earnings driven gap higher, it tends to be a positive short term catalyst. So as long as it can hold on to the gains today, tomorrow to confirm that breakout just above about 84, you could arrive at a measured move objective about 95. After which I would say that consolidation is probably likely given some, I guess signs of exhaustion that we see on the longer term charts.
- [06:29]
Katie Stockton
Plus they did have some of that the Tesla magic of Super Super Cruise and OnStar. And so the margins on that are excellent. Maybe those trade at seven times also I guess not as good as if you know Tesla, but That's okay.
- [06:44]
Melissa Lee
But do you think that this is a period where we will rerate these, I guess as the valuation must move higher.
- [06:50]
Katie Stockton
I mean the one good thing about it not doing that is that GM has been able to buy back stock 35% of GM at a very good price. Right.
- [07:01]
Melissa Lee
Let's add to the conversation. Phil LeBeau. He spoke with GM CEO Mary Barra earlier today on CNBC. Phil, I know you're listening to our conversation about the valuation of GM and whether it should re rate. I mean, is this a different business environment for gm?
- [07:18]
Phil LeBeau
It is different, but not terribly different. I think that what you can attribute GM's success over the last year to is the fact that if you bought shares of General Motors, you could count on a couple of things. One of them being they were going to be buying more stock that's been consistent since November of 23. They bought back 35% of their shares. That's the first thing. The second thing is they're generating a lot of cash and so the dividend was likely going to move higher. And you put that all together, if you're an investor, this is one of the few auto stocks, traditional auto stocks, that you've been able to count on.
- [07:56]
Melissa Lee
Are you surprised, Phil, that as, as, as Ford and GM are pulling back and winding down their EV business, that Tesla hasn't seen any sort of a tailwind because of that?
- [08:09]
Phil LeBeau
No, I'm not surprised at all. I don't think Tesla trades at all on its auto business. My feeling is that Tesla, having covered the company from the beginning, or virtually the beginning, it is trading more than ever on the commentary and the aspirations of the CEO Elon Musk, and he's made it clear this is less about delivering electric vehicles. Though they will never say, well, we're not going to manufacture electric vehicles. That's still part of the playbook. What their future rests on is autonomous, that's robo taxi, unsupervised, full self driving vehicles as well as robots and the humanoid robot and the development there. That's not happening anytime soon. Regardless of what Elon Musk says, humanoid robots are not happening anytime soon. Now that might change in a couple of years. But if you are a Tesla investor, you are hanging on that that's what the stock is trading on. So the fact that General Motors and Ford and other automakers have dialed back on EVs in North America, I don't think it really matters a ton to Tesla or to the Tesla investor.
- [09:19]
Melissa Lee
Barra was also commenting on auto prices in 20, 26, that they'll remain virtually flat, and yet the tariff impact is going to be higher. So I assume margins are going to be lower.
- [09:34]
Phil LeBeau
Well, that would be your assumption. But if you go back and you look at average transaction prices of General Motors and the industry overall, they continue to inch higher. In fact, General Motors average transaction price last year was about $52,000. The industry was at $50,000 at the end of last year. It has always sold as far as transaction prices at a price premium to the rest of the industry in North America. And when I asked Mary Barra about the fact that the administration is pushing more affordability when it comes to new vehicles, she said, look, we sell a lot of vehicles that start for under $40,000 or under $35,000. But, Melissa, you and I both know very few people buy a vehicle at the starting price. That is there for marketing msrp, and there is a very, very small audience that buys vehicles at that price. We are conditioned, especially here in the United States, we are conditioned to add things to our vehicles and we want those things added. That moves the price up. And hats off to General Motors, it is giving the consumers what they want, regardless of what the White House says.
- [10:43]
Katie Stockton
Phil, it's Karen. It also seems to me like they're just more efficient as well, which is how they were able to eat some of the margins and, you know, not raise prices. I guess it seems like that's going to continue. Go ahead.
- [10:57]
Phil LeBeau
No, I was going to say one of the big differences between General Motors and Ford over the last three, four years, look at the warranty costs. There's no comparison at all. Ford has worked really hard at trying to get their warranty costs under control, and there's indications that it's improving. But over the last three or four years, how many times did we come up on earnings day and we said, here's another charge for Ford because they've got warranty issues. We haven't been saying that about General Motors. It's a far different story. Far more efficient operation right now.
- [11:29]
Melissa Lee
Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau in Florida for us. GM or Ford?
- [11:36]
Guy Adami
GM still. And we've been steadfast on this one. And you want to play the multiple game. A nine multiple I don't think is ridiculous. And at $12 earnings, you get $100, what, $8 stock? I think that's right. I think the average market price right now, according to facts, that' which is exactly where the stock closed. So you're going to start, in my opinion, going to start to See analysts ratchet up their price targets in GM.
- [11:57]
Melissa Lee
Which chart looks better?
- [11:58]
Karen Feiderman
Katie, you know GMs at new highs so you always have to favor the one that has the longer term uptrend in place.
- [12:04]
Katie Stockton
Right.
- [12:05]
Melissa Lee
Well meantime, a triple dose of big tech reports tomorrow. Matt, Microsoft and Tesla all on deck after the bell. Apple rounds out this week's Mag7 action on Thursday. What do you make of the stock's action ahead of these reports? The ramp in Dan is not helpful in terms of the setup.
- [12:20]
Dan Nathan
Yes, tough. I mean I think these guys, Karen and Guy had this last week. They were saying this is before that Metta upgrade by Jefferies. There's like it won't take that much good news to get these stocks going given how weak they were. And so when you think about that Jefferies upgrade, I mean I don't know about you guys, we don't see a lot of movement generally on upgrades or downgrades by the street anymore. And so that was maybe just a good reminder that some of these stories that are pretty good got oversold. And when you think about that, if the fundamentals are basically in line to better than the sentiment so poor you get a move like that. I think it's a tough one. Apple has also made a move like that kind of sneakily over the last week or so. So you know I think it's a tough time to chase things. The market's at all time highs and some of these stories they might be hitting some patches where it's a bit of digestion and then the ones that have outperformed maybe like a Google maybe you have to think twice about the fact that whatever they put up it might go the opposite way over the.
- [13:13]
Guy Adami
Next week or so. You know we got a 10%, very quick 9% move in Microsoft over the last week or so which you know we thought that the setup was actually the best it's been in a while. I still think it's good but obviously not as good as it was a week or so ago. But people were looking for the gap fill down to 420ish. We didn't get it. We got close. I think there's a very good chance of Microsoft surprises the upside which has the best setup.
- [13:36]
Karen Feiderman
You know they all are kind of compelling in terms of the proximity of support. So the sentiment point is a very good one. And I think we're not too far too fast yet for Metta or Microsoft. You know, just having held this cloud based support, Microsoft held the 450 area and even Tesla has Some support that ideally it will recover around 440. So they're coming in relatively oversold. Still, having reacted to those intermediate term oversold conditions, I think there's more room near term to run.
- [14:06]
Melissa Lee
And specifically for Meta, what are you looking for? Which, which line item?
- [14:09]
Katie Stockton
Which. Well, I hope the word notably is notably absent. I'd like that to happen. Click CapEx for sure. And expenses and revenue growth, those three things I'm looking for.
- [14:20]
Dan Nathan
You know, for me, CapEx is interesting because we've seen this go back and forth over the last year, right. So if they raise Capex more than expected, sometimes companies have been rewarded for that. And then the opposite. Meta was clearly the opposite last time. Right. The raise was greater than the street expected and they sold the thing off really hard. At some point some of these companies, specifically the ones like Microsoft and the enterprise, they're going to have to demonstrate that they're seeing uptake of these products to kind of get investors to continue to buy into this trade because the longer that they push this out is probably the more likely investors are going to kind of move to other things. And that's what we've seen in memory and storage and some of these other things though they're happy to take a pause there until they hear if that capex has been spent well. And so that's what we're going to get a lot of info about over.
- [15:07]
Guy Adami
The next week or so in real time. We're getting the Doppler effect.
- [15:11]
Melissa Lee
What do you mean? Sorry, made a siren.
- [15:13]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, they're calling. Yeah, BS on what I just said.
- [15:17]
Guy Adami
No, what do you know? That's absolutely true.
- [15:20]
Dan Nathan
Doppler is good.
- [15:21]
Guy Adami
The Doppler effect, that's like a real thing. Go to your Google, you have that chat PCD thing.
- [15:26]
Dan Nathan
I do have.
- [15:27]
Guy Adami
Look it up.
- [15:27]
Melissa Lee
The options market, applying some big moves for these names. Some major action in Tesla specifically. Mike Co joins us with the action. Hey Mike.
- [15:35]
Guy Adami
Yeah, so first we'll just quickly talk about Microsoft. On the back of Katie's comments there, it's implying a move of about 4% which is in line with its average move. So options are reasonably priced and most of the flow we saw there was bullish calls outpacing puts by about 2 to 1. Meta is implying a larger 6.5% move or thereabouts and that's somewhat smaller than the 8 and a half percent it has moved on average over the past eight quarters. The last two quarters for example, had moves of over 11% and Tesla is implying a move of less than 6% by the end of the week. The longer term average for Tesla is much larger than that, actually over 9%. But the most recent quarters have been a bit more muted. The most active contracts there were the weekly 440 calls. We saw over 30,000 of those trade for about $10.15 a contract and buyers of those are risking about 2.4% of the current stock price, betting that Tesla could regain the ground that it lost since Monday's highs.
- [16:27]
Melissa Lee
All right Mike, thank you. Mike Koh with the options action there, do you think that we're going to see sort of a read through effect, much of a read through effect or are these such disparate stories at this point?
- [16:40]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I think they all are. I mean maybe Facebook you get get a little bit of a read through. But I think in terms of Microsoft and these other names, I think they're very specific to the stocks. That's my opinion.
- [16:49]
Dan Nathan
You know, on the options front and Mike just kind of detailed it. I mean the implied moves are less than normal. Right. And so we have an S and P at all time highs. You have a Vix at 16 and a half. It kind of implies that maybe if you're looking to pick directions, it's not a bad time to use options to find your risk.
- [17:03]
Katie Stockton
Were you asking that about Mag7 or.
- [17:05]
Melissa Lee
More broadly about the market, about Max7 specifically.
- [17:08]
Katie Stockton
I think that the cloud numbers for Microsoft will really be important for Google and for Amazon but not for Meta. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [17:19]
Melissa Lee
Different coming up. Speaking of tech earnings, we are watching Texas Instruments after hours of numbers and the details from that quarter why the stock is higher right now. Plus Amazon supermarket switch. The changes they are making to their physical fresh and go stores and how the other grocery stocks are handling the competition. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back in two.
- [17:40]
Dan Nathan
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc. Comcast business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking frictionless paying favorite shopping destinations. It's how nationwide restaurants become touchscreen ordering quick serving eateries and how hospitals become.
- [18:01]
Melissa Lee
The patient scanning data, managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on.
- [18:06]
Dan Nathan
With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership.
- [18:11]
Guy Adami
Comcast business is powering the engine of.
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Dan Nathan
Modern business powering possibilities restriction supply.
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Phil LeBeau
Before we had AT&T business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn, an influencer, even.
- [18:30]
Dan Nathan
Livestream the whole thing not good for business.
- [18:33]
Phil LeBeau
Now with AT&T business wireless routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. The influencer did get us 53 new followers though. AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything.
- [18:48]
Karen Feiderman
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Melissa Lee
Millie's the head of the household.
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Karen Feiderman
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- [19:05]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money, an earnings alert on Texas Instruments shares jumping in extended trading despite the chip maker missing top and bottom Line estimates. CNBC's Christina Parts Neville has got the latest from the call Christina, which actually just ended right now. So Texas Instruments shares like you said, are just surging about 9% after hours on significantly stronger than seasonal first quarter guidance. Notable because Q1 is typically down due to Chinese New Year. This sequential growth according to management isn't coming from higher prices either. So there's three key drivers that I took from the call. First, industrial, their biggest end market grew 18% year over year with room to run. The CEO called this in general one of the quote slowest recoveries ever in our history at a time where more semis are used in our life. Second, data center revenue is now 9% of total revenue, up 64% year over year. That's a dramatic increase. Texas Instrument isn't making the AI chips but they are making the power management chips that handle data center electrical infrastructure. So they play a role in this build out and it's now big enough to actually move the numbers. Third orders improve throughout the quarter, particularly in mobile phones. Home theaters didn't do well though. But management is staying pretty cautious. They want to see how sustainable and they use that word on the call, how sustainable this pickup really is. Especially after Industrial showed signs of Life earlier in 2025 and then calmed down throughout the year. But you can see shares and investors really liking this recovery.
- [20:26]
David Harrow
Comment.
- [20:27]
Melissa Lee
Yep, Christina. Thanks Christina. Parts nebulous. They certainly have been waiting for that analog recovery for quite some time guy.
- [20:34]
Guy Adami
And you got it. 14. That's exactly what so the quarter wasn't great. I mean they missed slightly on eps, missed slightly on revenue. The guide is very good though wide. They guided higher clearly and the 14% growth in analog people are saying, you know what, that's a really good sign. Not that there's a problem but it's a valuation thing. You got to be comfortable with the valuation it trades at. I think this current price. Where's the trading right now to 13. That's huge. That's higher than I think the average facts that price according to analysts. So we'll see. But I think the move is justified. I don't know how much more legs it has from here because this is right against the prior high.
- [21:09]
Melissa Lee
I think breaking out the businesses to highlight the data center growth is also so a pretty smart thing to do on the part of Texas Instruments to alert investors to the fact that yes, we are benefiting from AI in some capacity.
- [21:21]
Karen Feiderman
Now I wonder if this likely gap up tomorrow isn't a selling opportunity. It's a long term trading range. We've been very constructive on the space but if you look at the long term range, there's resistance for Texas around to 20. So with that looming, if we see a move up towards that level, it might be an opportunity to take profits.
- [21:41]
Melissa Lee
Shares of Core Weave we should Note adding another 10 plus percent today after Deutsche bank upgraded the infrastructure provider to a buy from a neutral saying the company is in the sweet spot to start booking new business. The analysts also boosting their price target by 40% to $140 a share. Core Weave is up 17% in just two days. Remember yesterday Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in the company which sparked that rally in yesterday's session. Do you do buy this move higher? Is it durable?
- [22:09]
Guy Adami
It's a tough one.
- [22:10]
Dan Nathan
I mean think about this. Okay, so Nvidia generates about $60 billion in free cash flow, right? So this is a four and a half trillion dollar market cap company. They have $60 billion in cash, $10 billion in debt. So for them to throw $2 billion into this ecosystem is probably a pretty easy one. It's kind of funny money. What is Core we're going to do with that $2 billion? They're going to buy Nvidia's products, right? So a lot of this needs to continue to happen, right? This is a very indebted company.
- [22:36]
Guy Adami
Core.
- [22:37]
Dan Nathan
We've, and we've seen what happened when an Oracle has to go to the debt markets, right, to build out their cloud business to actually fulfill the contracts for open air, right. So I guess the point is, is that Nvidia is going to continue to do this and it is to their benefit. And I think that, you know, you can criticize the circular nature of this stuff. You know, if it all works, great, have a ball, right? If it doesn't, we kind of remember what happened with vendor financing going back 25 years ago and a lot of companies that we thought were really good companies, whether it was Lucent or Nortel or Sun Micro that were lending their customers money to buy their products went down 95%. Sun Microsystems went down 95%. It was a $200 billion market cap company at its highest. It sold to Oracle in 2009 for $7 billion. Okay, we're going to have some of this and some of these companies that have a lot of debt are going to go out of business. But in the meantime, like I said, have at it.
- [23:30]
Melissa Lee
S u n W Remember that?
- [23:32]
Katie Stockton
Yeah.
- [23:33]
Guy Adami
Last night we had one of the great technicians sitting to my right, the great Carter Worth, and he said that there was more room to the upside in core weave. And we actually said, you know, there's a downtrend from the June high connect. The next level, I think it was in October and 110ish is at level tonight. We are equally honored to have another great technician. And maybe Katie is looking at a chart and sees the same downtrend that I'm looking at and says we probably just traded up to it, so we'll see what happens.
- [24:00]
Karen Feiderman
Right in line. Basically, 148, if we see a breakout of about this downtrend could be the next resistance. So short term, it does look pretty interesting.
- [24:07]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Do you, do you buy into this sort of Nvidia backstop? I mean, does that improve the core weave story?
- [24:13]
Katie Stockton
Apparently it did, but I don't. First of all, it's not that much money even to core weave. It's not a lot to video, but not even to Corey, I guess, you know, it's starting to be sort of a little hyped up again. I would rather, if, if I may. Yes, I would rather own a little more direct. Where is all of that demand for compute going? It's going to Google and to Amazon and to Microsoft and have the balance sheet and all the cash flow that goes with all of them as opposed to this finance and build, which is okay, that's fine. But the risk reward to me seems more compelling elsewhere.
- [24:51]
Melissa Lee
All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [24:56]
Dan Nathan
Doubling down on a Whole Foods focus. The supermarkets switch from Amazon. Grocery stocks getting cleaned up on aisle 10 plus, is the greenback weakness creating opportunities abroad the next move for international investing and why? Our next guest says foreign stocks are still trading at a discount. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [25:30]
Phil LeBeau
Before we had ATT business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn. An influencer even live streamed the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business wireless routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though. AT&T business wireless connecting changes everything.
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Melissa Lee
This is a Monday.com ad the samemonday.com helping people worldwide getting work done faster and better. The samemonday.com designed for every team and every industry. The samemonday.com with built in AI scaling your work from day one. The same Monday.com that your team will actually love using the same Monday.com with an easy and intuitive setup. Go to Monday.com and try it for free. Yes, the same Monday.com welcome back to Fast Money. Amazon popping 2.6% today as it announced plans to close its physical Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh stores and convert some locations into Whole Foods Markets. Traditional grocery stocks like Sprouts, Kroger and Albertsons all seeing outsized losses. Instacart parent Maple Bear there down almost 6%. Of course they've been weak versus the likes of a Walmart and grocery and so beefing up would be a direct threat to some of that business as well as traditional grocery. How do you view it?
- [27:33]
Katie Stockton
So I mean they're just a juggernaut and they just, I mean the logistics that they are capable of doing. Walmart interestingly gets a higher multiple than Amazon. I don't know that it should. And so that leaves the rest of Amazon's business trading, I think pretty cheap. So I own Walmart, I own Amazon, but I think I mostly own it. I mostly own it for aws.
- [27:55]
Melissa Lee
I didn't realize that you could order certain things, fresh things within 30 minutes. Like there's like a super fast function on Amazon like asparagus. Let's say you're making cupcakes and you ran out of frosting. You need white, you need frosting immediately.
- [28:08]
Katie Stockton
Has this happened to you with some frequency?
- [28:10]
Melissa Lee
Maybe.
- [28:11]
Katie Stockton
Okay.
- [28:13]
Guy Adami
I mean is that where we are as a society? No, I'm asking a serious question.
- [28:18]
Melissa Lee
Yes, yes, I guess that's where we.
- [28:19]
Guy Adami
I'm not Kroger. Real quick, if you look and Katie can speak to this 57 was, the 58 was a prior all time high in the summer of 2022. We're not there yet. They report in early March, they're off cycle. There's going to be an opportunity, I think, just on valuation and prior resistance becomes support to buy kr, assuming that continues to sell off. On the back of this, I got.
- [28:40]
Dan Nathan
To go to your Maple Bear. This is a cheap stock, right? If you believe the estimates for this year. Basically 30% EPS growth, 10% sales growth, 75% gross margins. And you know, they have a business that I think is somewhat defensible if those kind of unit economics hold up and they can kind of achieve these margins and this sort of growth. That being said, it's also hard when you're going up against these behemoths that are doing the logistics themselves. Obviously they're going to be infusing AI, which is going to help logistics a great deal. I'm sure Instacart is doing that too. But it's hard to see this as a standalone for too much longer. If you're trying to compete, compete with the likes of Amazon, Wal Mart and Kroger.
- [29:17]
Melissa Lee
It feels like it's facing an existential threat to its business. Right. Because it's just sort of the middleman logistics provider. What chart looks the best?
- [29:24]
Karen Feiderman
You know, looking at the laggards, I would say that they seem to have more downside, more downside to long term oversold territory. So looking at Kroger for one, it's about three months away from any kind of counter trend signal in my work. So I do feel like there's more downside there. And then Amazon's kind of looks fine, has regained momentum.
- [29:43]
Guy Adami
We do a PSA here real quick. What do you do for me? What do you get from me every day?
- [29:47]
Melissa Lee
I get you two oranges and I.
- [29:50]
Guy Adami
Have the peels to prove it. I sit here and eat them. You hand select them. You.
- [29:54]
Melissa Lee
I do, I trust you. Actually, I squeeze, don't tell anybody here at the nasdaq. I squeeze many of them.
- [30:00]
Guy Adami
What's your point, guy? My point is, you know, I trust you to do that. But if I'm ordering from some ins I don't want, they're just grabbing whatever they can. I don't want that.
- [30:10]
Dan Nathan
That's amazing. One thing that's really interesting about the Maple Bear, they have no debt, $1.8 billion in cash, 18% the cash flow.
- [30:19]
Katie Stockton
Is really good north of.
- [30:20]
Dan Nathan
I think someone should buy it.
- [30:21]
Melissa Lee
Oh, that's an interesting thought.
- [30:23]
Dan Nathan
Buy that thing.
- [30:24]
Guy Adami
Give me a ring.
- [30:25]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we're going international to find out whether there's still opportunity abroad. As the dollar weakens. The names are next. Guest says are still undervalued when Fast Money returns.
- [30:37]
Dan Nathan
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast.
- [30:42]
Phil LeBeau
We're back right after this.
- [30:51]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to fast money. The S&P jumping 4. 10 of a percent to close at a record. The Nasdaq rising nearly a percent. But the drop in unh pushing the Dow into the red. That index down more than 400 points. Points. Shares of Pinterest dropping nearly 10% today. The social media company cutting nearly 800 jobs about 15% of its workforce. Also reducing office space as it leans into AI. Pinterest stock down 38% in the past two years. And some more after hours movers tech companies Seagate and F5 topping EPS and revenue estimates. And wireless products provider Qorvo falling after lowering Q4 earnings and revenue guidance. And Meta inking a $6 billion deal with with Corning for fiber optic cables used in its AI data center. Shares of the glassmaker jumping more than 15% on its news, its best day since 2004. The stock hitting an intraday high for the first time since 2000.
- [31:42]
Dan Nathan
Dan, by the way, Corning upstate not far from Syracuse. Okay, it's fat. I hope they can pull this chart up. This is going back to the max chart here. It literally almost touched its all time high in 2000. And the reason why it touched the it they got a $6 billion, $6 billion order to fulfill fiber optic cable for Facebook for the next four years. I mean it's literally a rounding error and it just shows you like this is the sort of headline that would have caused the stock to move 20% 25 years ago. I just think it's pretty fascinating stuff here. But this is a company where it just became appreciated how they fit in the whole data center ecosystem. But obviously I'm not chasing this thing.
- [32:22]
Melissa Lee
Meantime, the US dollar index hitting levels last seen in early 2022 and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. President Trump was asked about the recent declines earlier today. Here's what he had to say.
- [32:33]
David Harrow
I think it's great. I mean the value of the dollar. Look at the business we're doing. No dollars dollar's doing great. You know, it's very interesting if you look at China and Japan, I used to fight like hell with them because they always wanted to devalue their yen.
- [32:47]
Guy Adami
You know, they that the yen and.
- [32:49]
David Harrow
The one and they'd always want to devalue it.
- [32:51]
Melissa Lee
They devalue, devalue, devalue. And I said not fair that you devalue because it's hard to compete when they devalue. Meanwhile, the dollar's weakness helping stocks overseas, ETFs tracking France, Germany, Japan all hitting records today while the Brazil ETF was at nearly four year highs. For more on investing abroad, Oakmark's David Harrow joins us now. He's the co CIO of International equities equities and manages the Oakmark International ETF etf. David, great to have you with us.
- [33:19]
David Harrow
Thank you for the invite today. Happy to be here.
- [33:22]
Melissa Lee
This is certainly the dollar weakness, certainly a tailwind to international investing. But what are some of the other sort of fundamentals going on in other places that make those equities attractive?
- [33:34]
David Harrow
Well, you're exactly right. I mean since it bottomed basically around 2011, 2012 at around the DXY was at about 75 and then it hit a high of about 105, 110 and you know, 10 years later, now we're just at 95, 96. So it's just given back maybe the top 10% of that rise. The strong dollar has been one of the reasons why the international equities as an asset class has underperformed S and P over five or over seven and a half, 10 and 15 years. That's not the only reason. The other reason is there's been massive multiple expansion of US stocks and and devaluation of foreign stocks. So you've had a double impact causing this underperformance over 10 and 15 years. Now we're starting to see a turn. You mentioned the dollar, but the earnings growth of these foreign companies equities is coming through. Of course not as robust as the US but still. And meanwhile, traditionally foreign stocks trade at about a 14, 15% discount to US stocks. When you look at one year out P Es today we're still at a 25, almost 30% discount. So you still have undervalued stocks with undervalued currencies which have just quietly now have risen a bit. But I believe there's a lot more room that this is not normal, that this spread, what we pay for these financial assets is still too large. So there's still room in the dollar and there's still room in foreign market foreign stock equity valuations to revalue.
- [35:18]
Melissa Lee
Where are the biggest disconnects in terms of valuation, David, when you take a look at either sectors or geographies, I mean as you had mentioned, as you alluded to, you know, tech really drew a lot of investors to the United States. Say it's because of the concentration there. But you know, in other, in other places, financials or industrials are strong and well represented in overseas indices. Are those valuations still attractive relative to what we're seeing here?
- [35:42]
David Harrow
Yes. You look at certain stocks, whether they be in the pharma sector, which is very strong sector located outside the US because the Swiss and the UK have big strong pharmaceutical companies, AstraZeneca, Roche, Novartis, etc. They're still selling at good values. Consumer discretionary is a space people used to pay up for the stability of consumer discretionary and consumer staples. Consumer staples in particular, maybe not as much discretionary. These are looking very, very attractively priced companies like Danone and Unilever. So there are areas luxury good US really doesn't have a luxury good sector. And for the last year or two, primarily because of the weakness of the Chinese consumer, probably a big function of the real estate bubble popping, primarily because of this weakness, companies like Louis Vuitton and Kering and Richemont. Richemont of course is Cartier. They have not really sold at these kind of valuations when you look at normal earnings in a long time. So these are all things and our view that represent good value and they're all global companies. People don't like to invest in European companies because they see slow growth, bureaucratic, overregulated Europe. All true, but the businesses do business all over the world. If you look at a company like BMW, 1/3 of their business is Asia, 1/3 is Europe, one third is North America. So these are really good global businesses. Businesses that have their valuations being punished because of where they're being located. We think it represents great opportunity, especially when you look at a company like BMW. The free cash flow yield well over 10% and probably growing 4 or 5%.
- [37:31]
Katie Stockton
David, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. So we saw from the notes that you think Japan is expensive. Can you talk about how expensive you think it is and what you think about it more broadly?
- [37:43]
David Harrow
Here is the issue with Japan as value investors. And at Harris Oakmark, this is what we hang our head on. We're value investors. Value to us is not just the price you pay, but it's a fraction. It's what you get for the price you pay. So if you look at the average return on equity of a Japanese company, quite skinny, 8 or 9% average return on equity of the US company well into the 20s European company in the high teens. So that's kind of a proxy for what you're getting. If you look at the margin structure, return on capital structure, all the same thing. Japan very low. What about the price you pay? The price you pay for Japanese equities is about 18, 19 times, not as anywhere near the peak what we saw in 1989 when it was at 65 or 70 times, five times book value value. So the market has derated but in our view as value investors who also consider the quality of the business, what we get, it's just not there. It's really hard to find. I mean take a company like how kind of the Procter and Gamble of Japan has 9, 10% margins. Procter Gamble has mid 20s, Rickett Binkaiser is mid 20s. So there's just this disconnect between how corporate Japan is running and it's not saying we want to buy Japanese stock. We do, we have owned them and we're overweight in periods of time. But the risk return, what you get for the price you pay just isn't there for a value investor despite the run it's had.
- [39:15]
Melissa Lee
By the way, David, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate your time.
- [39:20]
David Harrow
Thank you very much for inviting me.
- [39:22]
Melissa Lee
David Arrow, what do you think about Japan being expensive is interesting, expensive now.
- [39:29]
Guy Adami
But relative to where it's been, as you pointed out, not so much. It is expensive and there are things going on clearly in their bond market and their currency that you have to watch out for. So that could derail the whole thing. I'll say this, you mentioned Brazil. We've been talking about this for quite some time and energy, materials, financials, you get it all with Brazil at multi year highs. Ewz, that's the place I think you continue to play with.
- [39:49]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. And you think M could be a catch up trade?
- [39:52]
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, well within em there's been a lot more dispersion than normal. We have seen outperformance from Korea, from Taiwan, but not so much from China. Technology like the K Web ETF Hang Seng Index, those have actually lagged over the past few months. And that's where I think there's a point of interest as a potential catch up trade with both of these sort of benchmarks or proxies for the Hong Kong index and also for China tech. I feel like they have support basically in line and improved momentum near these support levels. So that's a more interesting setup to me than the more extended areas coming up.
- [40:29]
Melissa Lee
Shares of UnitedHealth falling hard on a rough revenue outlook and Medicare rate concerns. Can this once godlike stock turn things around? We'll get some answers and don't miss our next CNBC Pro Live event. Wealth for Women Financial strategies for women who are investing for themselves and for others. Both Karen and Katie will be there. The event is May 28 here at the NASDAQ market site. Scanning and the QR code on your screen or visit CNBC events.com/wealth for women. Fast money's back in. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of UnitedHealthcare sinking almost 20% their worst day since last April. The company giving weak revenue guidance for the year after news last night that the Trump administration proposed holding Medicare Advantage rates basically steady. That news also hitting other insurers hard. Humana, cvs, Centene and Molina all seeing outsized gains here. Katie, how do the charts look here?
- [41:25]
Karen Feiderman
Well, it was a pretty rough day of course with all these gaps down. And what happened was they came into this news somewhat overbought too and near resistance on their charts. So UNH for one was right up against our cloud model and same with the IHF ETF which is the kind of the healthcare providers ETF or proxy for the space. And it looks bad. I mean we have a short term breakdown, overbought downturns associated with this gap down and a lot of room to the next support. So for UNH we have next supporter and 250 on the chart which is still a good amount of room. And for IHF it's preserved that downtrend, that long term downtrend defined by the cloud. So it is a setback.
- [42:05]
Melissa Lee
Are you in elevance still?
- [42:07]
Katie Stockton
I am not happy to not.
- [42:08]
Melissa Lee
Yes.
- [42:09]
Katie Stockton
Yeah. I don't miss it it I mean you know we're still friends but we're not together anymore so. But unh, I think it'll be interesting to see what happens with the Berkshire stake. We won't see the F until I don't know, May 15th I guess. But they have 5 million shares. That's not a small position for them. Maybe it is. We'll see if they buy more or not.
- [42:29]
Guy Adami
The bounce from the July Katie's looking at this. I'm sure that 234 low the was 65% bounce bounce in the stock over the last six months. But if you look long term it's barely a blip. And that low that we saw last summer seems to be in the crosshairs. Big volume day today which is encouraging. Nine times normal volume. But it doesn't feel like it found a floor yet?
- [42:50]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, Bitcoin buy signals what Katie Stockton sees in the crypto charts and why she thinks the token could bounce back after a rough couple of months. A technical take on Bitcoin. Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Bitcoin prices continue to trade below the $90,000 mark. But could there be signs that crypto is about to resume its rally mode? Katie, what do you see?
- [43:23]
Karen Feiderman
Well, we do have Bitcoin right down into some support on the chart. It's based on our cloud model, so it's a make or break breakpoint for Bitcoin and that it needs to hold essentially in line and respond to what are some new short term oversold indications. We've been seeing some backing and filling from the cryptocurrency market more broadly for the past few weeks or even longer than that. That backing and filling represents improved intermediate term momentum. It's still not positive, of course, but it's less negative. And because that's happened near support, that gives bitcoin and other altcoins a better chance of rebounding here. And as of the last couple of days, we've started to see these signals arise. They're Based on the Demarc indicators we have the Bitwise ETF, the BitW showing one of these signals and they've been pretty timely both, both on the buy side and on the sell side. So we're compelled by these signals and it's sort of the last chance for Bitcoin to hold this support.
- [44:21]
Melissa Lee
The last chance.
- [44:22]
Dan Nathan
Well, it's interesting. I would actually rather play some of these names that went public last year. One of them is Bullish, CEO, company friend of the show, Tom Farley's. Just to be very clear, it's got high short interest. It's very tightly held. 60% of the shares are within three shareholders. So when you think about that, it's below its IPO price. It wouldn't take a lot of like we were talking about last night. So a little bit of good news. You got a big short squeeze going in these sorts of things. I'd rather play that. That looks like a coiled spring than let's say bitcoin, which seems a little controversial right here.
- [44:51]
Katie Stockton
Microstrategy. Now what? 160 down from 400. And still that one I wouldn't play. But I get what you're saying. Just for a, for a bounce, I betray it. But I'm long, staying long.
- [45:02]
Guy Adami
Bitcoin 84,000. I mean, that was the low, I think, in November, a couple of times. The good news is we've tested a couple of times and bounce. The bad news is we've tested it a couple of times. I mean it needs this is last chance. She's right. This is it. You need to have this above 95,000 over the next couple of weeks. Otherwise I think it's a foregone conclusion that we trade low.
- [45:21]
Melissa Lee
Alright. Up next, final trades. It is time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Katie Stockton A fair lead.
- [45:40]
Karen Feiderman
I'm interested in uso. It's the United States Oil Fund and it's a play on crude oil prices getting above their 200 day moving average.
- [45:48]
Melissa Lee
Great to have you on the desk, Katie. Thank you. Karen.
- [45:51]
Katie Stockton
Yes, I always learn something from Kitty that's fun. You know, big earnings tomorrow. Metta I'm going home with the girl that brought me to the dance long.
- [46:00]
Dan Nathan
Meta Dan yeah, I always learned something new. So yeah, I think things like bullish, I think they're kind of interesting. I think the guy's point about bitcoin, the good thing is a test of that little the bad thing at test that level. Some of these things get really oversold on the single stock standpoint. So I think something like bullish could.
- [46:18]
Melissa Lee
Be a good trade.
- [46:19]
Guy Adami
Not that anybody particularly cares, but I've been to Brazil twice in my life. Yes, Sao Paulo, Rio, and twice I can't go back. And we'll share that on the after hours Fast Money.
- [46:32]
Melissa Lee
EW said though Mil thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 4 for closing bell overtime. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Real talent is.
- [47:16]
Phil LeBeau
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- [47:44]
Dan Nathan
And the ad Council.