CNBC Fast Money Podcast Summary

Episode: Gold and Silver Party Like It’s 1979 and the Retail Winners This Holiday Season
Date: December 26, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Tim Seymour, Bonnell, Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies), Chris Harvey (CIBC), Guest: Ben Emmons (FedWatch Advisors), Jerry Storch (Storch Advisors), Corey Clipston (Swan Bitcoin)

Main Theme

This episode dives into the historic rallies in gold and silver—drawing parallels to the party days of 1979! The panel analyzes what’s driving precious metals to record outperformance, debates fair value and sentiment, and looks at the economic factors driving the run. Key retail winners from the holiday season, energy and oil sector setups, trends in AI and semiconductors (Nvidia’s $20 billion move), Fed policy, and bitcoin’s prospects for next year are also discussed.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Gold & Silver Surge: Is It Sustainable?

[01:11–13:51]

• Market Moves: Both gold and silver are having their best year in nearly five decades—gold up over 70%, silver up 160% YTD.
• Drivers:
  • Industrial uses (particularly for silver in chips/solar, but gold limited).
  • Speculation and retail fervor.
  • Supply disruptions.
  • Central bank diversification and geopolitical instability.
  • ETF and retail trading activity amplifying a light-volume day.
• Panel Cautions:
  • Tim Seymour notes, “It feels blow off topish except… the things that are at work here are not changing as we go into 26… The things moving gold aren’t abating.” [03:18]
  • Silver's surge is “somewhat unexplainable… I wouldn’t run too far from gold, but silver seems overdone.” [03:55]
• Valuation Debate:
  • Gold is tough to value—no earnings or cash flows. Its value is driven by perception, store-of-value status, and central bank behavior. [05:22–06:23]
  • Katie Stockton: “Sometimes honestly that’s all it takes. It’s just a sentiment story… Silver has gone parabolic, which puts you on guard for some kind of loss of momentum.” [06:51]
• Momentum & Technicals:
  • Technical breakouts in gold and silver charts; silver's move could be sustainable, but gaps could indicate topping. [07:55–08:27]
• Retail Interest:
  • Chris Harvey: “I’ve talked more about gold in the last five weeks than the last five years.” [08:32]
  • Retail flocking to what works. With Bitcoin lagging, metals are now “the trade.”

2. Canada’s Mining Stocks and Gold Forecasts

[08:46–11:54]

• Canada’s exchanges and miners play a key role.
• Prior cycles have included “widowmaker trades”—not always kind to investors.
• Tim Seymour forecasts: “I think gold’s going to $6,000 by ‘28… The fundamentals are real… I’m just not sure I’m chasing silver today.” [10:07–11:54]

3. Industrial Use and Adjacent Trades

[11:54–13:19]

• Silver’s industrial role leads traders to look for corollary trades in chip, cloud, and solar stocks.
• “You’d rather own the OpCo—First Solar for example—versus silver, the commodity,” says Bonnell. [12:47]
• The parallel moves in copper and multi-mineral miners also discussed. Freeport flagged as lagging but well-positioned.

4. Macro Outlook & Fed Dynamics (with Ben Emmons)

[13:52–19:28]

• 2026 likely starts with heavy Fed influence: new Chair, market expectations for rate cuts, and balance sheet expansion.
• Gold’s rally since December tracks declining real rates and increased liquidity; the market is sensitive to Fed Chair selection.
• If a market-friendly chair (like Rick Reader) is selected, expect creativity and stimulus; less dovish picks might unsettle stocks.
• The steepening yield curve is expected with rate cuts and global stimulus, which may continue to buoy gold and commodities.
  • Emmons: “We can speculate... but I think the market is definitely wary… they’re trying to price in this different Fed chair with a steeper curve and higher gold price.” [17:36]–[18:43]
• Commodity “debasement trade” likely to persist with currency uncertainty.

5. Nvidia’s $20 Billion Deal: AI Arms Race

[21:49–27:20]

• Nvidia reportedly spends $20B on Groq, a startup started by a key architect of rival Google hardware.
• The move is part-talent acquisition, part-performance engineering.
• The structure skirts regulatory approval (“not a full acquisition”); aligns with the trend of tech giants hiring (and licensing) rather than buying outright.
• Nvidia is building new moats and attacking technical limitations in the AI stack.
• Tim Seymour: “This is clearly an infrastructure play in addition to a semiconductor company… 20 billion is a rounding error for Nvidia.” [24:32–25:03]
• Katie Stockton: “Short term I think the momentum is behind the stock. But longer term… there’s definitely deterioration so I feel like I’m a better seller of strength right now in Nvidia.” [26:35–27:08]

6. Oil & Energy Stocks: Setup for 2026

[29:45–34:51]

• Crude is near support at $55, needs to clear $59 for technical breakout; 9-week countertrend signal flashing.
• Key stocks poised for upside if oil breaks out: SLB (Schlumberger), Targa Resources (TRGP), Halliburton, Exxon Mobil.
• “We’ve seen some of the individual stocks gain intermediate term upside momentum at a time when technology… is losing it,” notes Katie Stockton. [30:09–32:35]
• Chris Harvey: “I think they’re a great second half story. First half not so sure. If the Fed gets involved, they’re really going to move… There’ll be a rotation to economically sensitive commodities.” [33:05–33:56]
• Tim Seymour: “The stocks have traded phenomenally… I like Shell and Total more than the US names.” [33:56–34:51]

7. Retail Holiday Winners & 2026 Consumer Outlook (Jerry Storch)

[35:42–40:01]

• Holiday spending strong; retail sales growth forecast at 4–5% y/y.
• Debunks “K-shaped” recovery—sees “tree shaped”: “Both branches are going up, just at different rates.” [37:08]
• Home improvement retailers (Home Depot, Lowe’s) lagging due to rates/housing starts; optimism returns if rates fall.
• Current winners: Wal-Mart, Costco, TJX (Marshalls/TJ Maxx), and Amazon—gaining market share.

8. Bitcoin Outlook for 2026 (Corey Clipston, Swan Bitcoin CEO)

[41:14–44:28]

• Bitcoin down ~25% this quarter, but Clipston predicts, “More than a 50% chance of a new all-time high in 2026; above 125k next year.” [42:53]
• Argues the traditional four-year cycle may be over due to more institutional and government buyers.
• Shifting trends among Bitcoin miners (toward AI/hybrid power) don’t impair the security or investment case for Bitcoin.

9. Defense Stocks & China Sanctions

[44:28–45:53]

• New Chinese sanctions raise alarm but, panel agrees, financial exposure is “de minimis”; pullbacks could be buying opportunities.
• Expressing a bullish view could mean looking at MP Materials or USAR, which handle rare earths—potential trade if US-China tensions escalate.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tim Seymour (re: gold):

  "The things moving gold aren't abating. I'm just not sure I'm chasing silver today." [11:54]

• Katie Stockton (on silver):

  "Silver has gone parabolic... when that happens, it puts you on guard for some kind of pivot point or loss of momentum." [06:51]

• Chris Harvey (on retail trends):

  "Retail investors... are buying what works. Bitcoin no longer works. Let’s pile into gold and silver." [08:55]

• Ben Emmons (on Fed impact):

  "The Fed will drive a lot [of markets] initially… Gold just took off after the last FOMC meeting." [14:32]

• Jerry Storch (on consumer trends):

  "It's like a tree where both branches are going up, just at different rates." [37:08]

• Corey Clipston (on bitcoin):

  "Adoption in bitcoin is kind of a one-way motion. People don't tend to get into bitcoin and then get out… I actually do expect that we’ll see above 125k next year." [41:14, 42:53]

• Katie Stockton (on Nvidia):

  “Long term, it does have a couple of downticks… I’m a better seller of strength right now.” [27:08]

• Chris Harvey (on oil stocks):

  “If the Fed gets involved, they’re really going to move… I think the stocks are setting up fabulously for a second half rally.” [33:16]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Gold & Silver Rally Analysis: [01:11–13:51]
• Canada’s Role & Sector Warnings: [08:46–11:54]
• Industrial Metals Parallels: [11:54–13:19]
• Fed, Macro & Yield Curves (Ben Emmons): [13:52–19:28]
• Nvidia’s $20B AI Play: [21:49–27:20]
• Oil/Energy Stocks Technicals: [29:45–34:51]
• Retail & Consumer Trends (Jerry Storch): [35:42–40:01]
• Bitcoin 2026 Outlook (Corey Clipston): [41:14–44:28]
• Defense/China Sanctions: [44:28–45:53]
• Final Trades: [46:20–47:07]

Final Trades (Panel's Closing Picks)

• Katie Stockton: Bitcoin — negative sentiment “so bad it’s good”; keep stop loss below $84,000.
• Chris Harvey: Software stocks, great risk/reward entering 2026.
• Bonnell: Bitcoin, strategy will give entry opportunity; value below holdings.
• Tim Seymour: Freeport (copper/gold) — expects both metals to trend higher.

Tone & Flow

The discussion is dynamic, energetic, and blends actionable investment advice with lively banter. The tone is direct, occasionally irreverent, and always packed with sharp insights for active investors.

This detailed summary covers the full spectrum of analysis from gold and silver’s historic boom, through retail winners, AI tech moves, Fed policy, energy, and next-gen bitcoin narratives—equipping listeners with the roundtable’s best ideas to start 2026 strong.