Gold and Silver Party Like It’s 1979 and the Retail Winners This Holiday Season 12/26/25

Summary

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CNBC Fast Money Podcast Summary

Episode: Gold and Silver Party Like It’s 1979 and the Retail Winners This Holiday Season
Date: December 26, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Tim Seymour, Bonnell, Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies), Chris Harvey (CIBC), Guest: Ben Emmons (FedWatch Advisors), Jerry Storch (Storch Advisors), Corey Clipston (Swan Bitcoin)

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Main Theme

This episode dives into the historic rallies in gold and silver—drawing parallels to the party days of 1979! The panel analyzes what’s driving precious metals to record outperformance, debates fair value and sentiment, and looks at the economic factors driving the run. Key retail winners from the holiday season, energy and oil sector setups, trends in AI and semiconductors (Nvidia’s $20 billion move), Fed policy, and bitcoin’s prospects for next year are also discussed.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Gold & Silver Surge: Is It Sustainable?

[01:11–13:51]

• Market Moves: Both gold and silver are having their best year in nearly five decades—gold up over 70%, silver up 160% YTD.
• Drivers:
  • Industrial uses (particularly for silver in chips/solar, but gold limited).
  • Speculation and retail fervor.
  • Supply disruptions.
  • Central bank diversification and geopolitical instability.
  • ETF and retail trading activity amplifying a light-volume day.
• Panel Cautions:
  • Tim Seymour notes, “It feels blow off topish except… the things that are at work here are not changing as we go into 26… The things moving gold aren’t abating.” [03:18]
  • Silver's surge is “somewhat unexplainable… I wouldn’t run too far from gold, but silver seems overdone.” [03:55]
• Valuation Debate:
  • Gold is tough to value—no earnings or cash flows. Its value is driven by perception, store-of-value status, and central bank behavior. [05:22–06:23]
  • Katie Stockton: “Sometimes honestly that’s all it takes. It’s just a sentiment story… Silver has gone parabolic, which puts you on guard for some kind of loss of momentum.” [06:51]
• Momentum & Technicals:
  • Technical breakouts in gold and silver charts; silver's move could be sustainable, but gaps could indicate topping. [07:55–08:27]
• Retail Interest:
  • Chris Harvey: “I’ve talked more about gold in the last five weeks than the last five years.” [08:32]
  • Retail flocking to what works. With Bitcoin lagging, metals are now “the trade.”

2. Canada’s Mining Stocks and Gold Forecasts

[08:46–11:54]

• Canada’s exchanges and miners play a key role.
• Prior cycles have included “widowmaker trades”—not always kind to investors.
• Tim Seymour forecasts: “I think gold’s going to $6,000 by ‘28… The fundamentals are real… I’m just not sure I’m chasing silver today.” [10:07–11:54]

3. Industrial Use and Adjacent Trades

[11:54–13:19]

• Silver’s industrial role leads traders to look for corollary trades in chip, cloud, and solar stocks.
• “You’d rather own the OpCo—First Solar for example—versus silver, the commodity,” says Bonnell. [12:47]
• The parallel moves in copper and multi-mineral miners also discussed. Freeport flagged as lagging but well-positioned.

4. Macro Outlook & Fed Dynamics (with Ben Emmons)

[13:52–19:28]

• 2026 likely starts with heavy Fed influence: new Chair, market expectations for rate cuts, and balance sheet expansion.
• Gold’s rally since December tracks declining real rates and increased liquidity; the market is sensitive to Fed Chair selection.
• If a market-friendly chair (like Rick Reader) is selected, expect creativity and stimulus; less dovish picks might unsettle stocks.
• The steepening yield curve is expected with rate cuts and global stimulus, which may continue to buoy gold and commodities.
  • Emmons: “We can speculate... but I think the market is definitely wary… they’re trying to price in this different Fed chair with a steeper curve and higher gold price.” [17:36]–[18:43]
• Commodity “debasement trade” likely to persist with currency uncertainty.

5. Nvidia’s $20 Billion Deal: AI Arms Race

[21:49–27:20]

• Nvidia reportedly spends $20B on Groq, a startup started by a key architect of rival Google hardware.
• The move is part-talent acquisition, part-performance engineering.
• The structure skirts regulatory approval (“not a full acquisition”); aligns with the trend of tech giants hiring (and licensing) rather than buying outright.
• Nvidia is building new moats and attacking technical limitations in the AI stack.
• Tim Seymour: “This is clearly an infrastructure play in addition to a semiconductor company… 20 billion is a rounding error for Nvidia.” [24:32–25:03]
• Katie Stockton: “Short term I think the momentum is behind the stock. But longer term… there’s definitely deterioration so I feel like I’m a better seller of strength right now in Nvidia.” [26:35–27:08]

6. Oil & Energy Stocks: Setup for 2026

[29:45–34:51]

• Crude is near support at $55, needs to clear $59 for technical breakout; 9-week countertrend signal flashing.
• Key stocks poised for upside if oil breaks out: SLB (Schlumberger), Targa Resources (TRGP), Halliburton, Exxon Mobil.
• “We’ve seen some of the individual stocks gain intermediate term upside momentum at a time when technology… is losing it,” notes Katie Stockton. [30:09–32:35]
• Chris Harvey: “I think they’re a great second half story. First half not so sure. If the Fed gets involved, they’re really going to move… There’ll be a rotation to economically sensitive commodities.” [33:05–33:56]
• Tim Seymour: “The stocks have traded phenomenally… I like Shell and Total more than the US names.” [33:56–34:51]

7. Retail Holiday Winners & 2026 Consumer Outlook (Jerry Storch)

[35:42–40:01]

• Holiday spending strong; retail sales growth forecast at 4–5% y/y.
• Debunks “K-shaped” recovery—sees “tree shaped”: “Both branches are going up, just at different rates.” [37:08]
• Home improvement retailers (Home Depot, Lowe’s) lagging due to rates/housing starts; optimism returns if rates fall.
• Current winners: Wal-Mart, Costco, TJX (Marshalls/TJ Maxx), and Amazon—gaining market share.

8. Bitcoin Outlook for 2026 (Corey Clipston, Swan Bitcoin CEO)

[41:14–44:28]

• Bitcoin down ~25% this quarter, but Clipston predicts, “More than a 50% chance of a new all-time high in 2026; above 125k next year.” [42:53]
• Argues the traditional four-year cycle may be over due to more institutional and government buyers.
• Shifting trends among Bitcoin miners (toward AI/hybrid power) don’t impair the security or investment case for Bitcoin.

9. Defense Stocks & China Sanctions

[44:28–45:53]

• New Chinese sanctions raise alarm but, panel agrees, financial exposure is “de minimis”; pullbacks could be buying opportunities.
• Expressing a bullish view could mean looking at MP Materials or USAR, which handle rare earths—potential trade if US-China tensions escalate.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tim Seymour (re: gold):

  "The things moving gold aren't abating. I'm just not sure I'm chasing silver today." [11:54]

• Katie Stockton (on silver):

  "Silver has gone parabolic... when that happens, it puts you on guard for some kind of pivot point or loss of momentum." [06:51]

• Chris Harvey (on retail trends):

  "Retail investors... are buying what works. Bitcoin no longer works. Let’s pile into gold and silver." [08:55]

• Ben Emmons (on Fed impact):

  "The Fed will drive a lot [of markets] initially… Gold just took off after the last FOMC meeting." [14:32]

• Jerry Storch (on consumer trends):

  "It's like a tree where both branches are going up, just at different rates." [37:08]

• Corey Clipston (on bitcoin):

  "Adoption in bitcoin is kind of a one-way motion. People don't tend to get into bitcoin and then get out… I actually do expect that we’ll see above 125k next year." [41:14, 42:53]

• Katie Stockton (on Nvidia):

  “Long term, it does have a couple of downticks… I’m a better seller of strength right now.” [27:08]

• Chris Harvey (on oil stocks):

  “If the Fed gets involved, they’re really going to move… I think the stocks are setting up fabulously for a second half rally.” [33:16]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Gold & Silver Rally Analysis: [01:11–13:51]
• Canada’s Role & Sector Warnings: [08:46–11:54]
• Industrial Metals Parallels: [11:54–13:19]
• Fed, Macro & Yield Curves (Ben Emmons): [13:52–19:28]
• Nvidia’s $20B AI Play: [21:49–27:20]
• Oil/Energy Stocks Technicals: [29:45–34:51]
• Retail & Consumer Trends (Jerry Storch): [35:42–40:01]
• Bitcoin 2026 Outlook (Corey Clipston): [41:14–44:28]
• Defense/China Sanctions: [44:28–45:53]
• Final Trades: [46:20–47:07]

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Final Trades (Panel's Closing Picks)

• Katie Stockton: Bitcoin — negative sentiment “so bad it’s good”; keep stop loss below $84,000.
• Chris Harvey: Software stocks, great risk/reward entering 2026.
• Bonnell: Bitcoin, strategy will give entry opportunity; value below holdings.
• Tim Seymour: Freeport (copper/gold) — expects both metals to trend higher.

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Tone & Flow

The discussion is dynamic, energetic, and blends actionable investment advice with lively banter. The tone is direct, occasionally irreverent, and always packed with sharp insights for active investors.

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This detailed summary covers the full spectrum of analysis from gold and silver’s historic boom, through retail winners, AI tech moves, Fed policy, energy, and next-gen bitcoin narratives—equipping listeners with the roundtable’s best ideas to start 2026 strong.

Transcript

[Tim Seymour]

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[Brian Sullivan]

Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Ho hi New high silver. Silver soaring again. What is behind the move and is it too late for you to get in? Also a real time retail roundup. How is spending so far and which stores may be winning? And that is not all. We'll talk about Nvidia making its biggest deal ever. The oil stocks that could benefit from crude oil moves. Whether the suboptimal year for bitcoin will turn very profitable next year. The CEO of Swan Bitcoin is here, as are we. Hi everybody. I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa tonight coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. And on your desk, Tim Seymour, Bonnell and Ice. And as well as Fairlead Strategies co founder and managing partner Katie Stockton, CIBC's head of equity and portfolio strategy, Chris Harvey. And a hearty thank you to all.

[Tim Seymour]

Of you and to you young man, yes, this is a long day for you.

[Brian Sullivan]

But you know, and we love it on a high note.

[Tim Seymour]

We appreciate it and we will.

[Brian Sullivan]

And you know what else ended on a high note today? Silver. I was a good transition. We are not starting with stocks. Instead, Tim, for you we're going heavy metal because the metal is partying like the days of Jean Shorts and ACDC and Don Dawkin, don Ronnie James, 1979 Gold and silver both hitting more records. We are just days away from closing out the year and if unless something weird happens, we'll have the best year for silver and gold in nearly 50 years. Both metals smashing the major Stock averages as well. This year gold is up more than 70% but Silver says hold my beer. It's up 160% since January. Many of the miners doing even more hecla mining, Anglo Gold, New Gold, Newmont, many others. Just some of the stocks that have doubled, tripled or even quadrupled this year. So Tim, we start with a simple question. Yeah. Well what's behind this going on.

[Jerry Storch]

Yeah.

[Brian Sullivan]

And, and where do you think it could go from here?

[Tim Seymour]

Well I think it certainly could go down in terms of the volatility in the space but I, it's hard to come up with new ways to say the same thing for something that's been going on for three years. It just happens to be in crescendo right now and it happens to be coming at a time when I think there's some, some real industrial use dynamics that are at work here. But more importantly I think there's, there's speculation and there is absolutely some supply disruption. So the thing that's probably more fascinating that will get into the conversation is to me where copper is and you know Dr. Copper historically has been an economic barometer but, but gold and silver are truly a function of where central bank diversification where where concern on Federal Reserve policy where concern on today I think you know most people are talking to just global geopolitical I should say instability as being the other dynamic that really triggered things today. Layer in exchange traded funds, retail activity and a light volume day and you get the kind of move which feels blow off topish except for the fact that I wouldn't run too far from these trades and I it's not about hey you know I've been saying this for three years but that the things that are at work here are not changing as we go into 26 the question is what's the fair value for gold. There's three other smart people here that can probably give you a better view than I can but I wouldn't run far from the gold trade. I think silver is overdone. I think gold silver ratios are things you see traders trade all the time. And I think this silver move is somewhat unexplainable.

[Brian Sullivan]

It is. So this is a really interesting point as always that you have good sir bottom which is the fair value on gold. Your fair lead strategies Katie. But bottom one I said I don't. How do you fairly value gold when there are no earnings? There really are and I'm sorry to all the dentists out there, no industrial uses for gold except are you getting.

[Tim Seymour]

Silver in your mouth because I'm not getting a lot of silver.

[Brian Sullivan]

How would you use it in semiconductors? Rarer.

[Tim Seymour]

So you said dentists.

[Bonnell]

Gold.

[Brian Sullivan]

Well, gold teeth.

[Tim Seymour]

People don't want to do that. Your grills. No, no.

[Brian Sullivan]

Well, if you can afford. Who can afford gold teeth now? But you get my point. Bottom one, how do we value gold when there are no earnings? There's no multiples to base this off of.

[Bonnell]

Fair enough. I would, I hear what you're saying in terms of there being limited fundamentals the way that you would kind of discount cash flows from an operating company or something of that nature. But the truth of the matter is that it trades someone on perception. It trades so much someone on perception around our central bank. And I think there has been a lot of discussion, Tim mentioned it already around kind of that independence and the rhetoric that is likely to come out the latter half of this year. I think you've also, I mean we've forgotten to mention that you've seen bitcoin really come off and that was supposed to be the new perhaps store value. That hasn't proven to be the case. You've seen a lot of correlation between risk high beta names as well as bitcoin. So I think gold still has its perceived store of value. Now, whether or not it has its own earnings, it still is something that has been there. And at the end of the day people feel like they can put their hand on something tangible. You have some central banks that have kind of eschewed the US treasury, longer dated type of bonds. You've seen some, you know, quite a bit of volatility on the back end of the curve there. So yeah, your point is very well taken. There's no arguing again, it's a factual.

[Brian Sullivan]

Statement, 25 times earnings on gold because there are no earnings on gold, Katie. That's kind of the point, I think to Biden's point, if, and we're going to get to more on bitcoin later, so don't go too down the bitcoin rabbit hole. But the move on silver and gold has felt, dare I say, bitcoin ish. When we're seeing 5 and 7% moves on a metal that may or may not have an industrial use.

[Katie Stockton]

Right.

[Brian Sullivan]

That's almost. It sounds a little speculative.

[Katie Stockton]

Well, especially silver, up 11% today alone, which is really astounding. Both metals have very strong positive momentum and sometimes honestly that's all it takes. It's just a sentiment story and sentiment is obviously very, very bullish. Not even just around gold and silver Platinum, palladium, they all look pretty good on the charts. We don't have any sell signals yet. And gold actually had a pretty recent breakout from a triangle formation within the context of its long term uptrend. So it did consolidate, it did have that pause to refresh. Silver on the other hand has gone, I'd say parabolic. And when that happens, it does put you on guard for some kind of pivot point or loss of momentum. So we're minding the gaps on that chart. The gap today was about 73. 73. Below that it start to look a little toppy. But we have this really interesting breakout in the ratio of gold to silver, or silver to gold, I should say. The silver breakout, it looks like it could be even sustainable. So longer term outperformance could be expected from silver.

[Brian Sullivan]

That's the bottom chart there. The bottom chart is silver versus gold.

[Katie Stockton]

That's right.

[Brian Sullivan]

So what are we looking for in that chart?

[Katie Stockton]

Effectively confirmed a breakout above a previous area of resistance. I know it's a little hard to see, I can't even see it this far, but I think I could draw it. So a nice little breakout above the resistance level and that tends to generate upside follow through. So we're encouraged by that breakout. If you're a silver bull and it does, it gives us a new asset class that has great momentum to take advantage of.

[Brian Sullivan]

Chris, have you, have you noticed an uptick in your clients asking about the precious metals?

[Chris Harvey]

So now I'm not just ahead of equity strategy in the US but also Canada. And I've talked more about gold in the last five weeks than I have in the last five years.

[Brian Sullivan]

Canadians, I mean, first off, almost every one of these miners is headquartered in Toronto.

[Chris Harvey]

That's right.

[Brian Sullivan]

They trade in the TS stacks or Montreal or Vancouver. And there's just that love of sort of the commodity country that is Canada.

[Tim Seymour]

That's right.

[Chris Harvey]

And so people are really bulled up to just to go on the back of what Katie's saying, hey, the chart looks good. If you look at retail investors. Retail investors, what do they do? They're buying what works. Right. Bitcoin no longer works. So let's pile into gold, let's pile into silver. Right To Tim's point, there's been a crescendo. That crescendo was in really the marginal drivers. What's driving this? Well, Fed. Fed funds came down 75 basis points this year. We had the big beautiful bill passed. We had an exceptional amount of fiscal accommodation over in Europe, but also up in Canada. I don't think you're going to get the same kind of accommodation next year. And so I think it does make sense that, that we probably have a consolidation the first half of next year. And the one thing about momentum is it works until it doesn't. When you have a point of inflection, they're pretty, they're not pleasant, let's put.

[Tim Seymour]

It like that, I think. And so, so Chris is also bringing up the part of the story when people talk about gold miners in Canada and they talk about a lot of the trading that's gone on historically, it hasn't always been associated with things that have felt good to investors. And I'll just put it that, I just say that a lot of the training in mining stocks that have gone on and it's not. I love Canada and I love what they're doing up there and tons of Canadian friends. But trading up in the Toronto exchanges and gold miners historically has been often fraught with, you know, a lot of, let's call them widowmaker trades up there. I think gold's going to 6,000 by 28. I think it's probably going even higher. I think the dynamic around trading in gold, both because of less industrial, but because of central bank, because of asset class dynamics. Morgan Stanley at times has been out there and saying 20% gold, I think having a diversified PGM portfolio and you can do that through the gltr. We've talked about that in the show. That's something that gives you kind of the weighting across precious metals that I think you're supposed to have. It's kind of like the dollar index of currency weightings for, for precious metals. But I think the, the, the reason why gold is moving higher is a combination of, first of all, the dollar, I think, is continuing weaker, inflation continues higher, central banks continue diversifying, geopolitics continue to be unsteady, if not get a little bit worse in the last couple of weeks. These are all reasons why I think gold is going to continue to go higher. I have less of a view on silver and I have less of a view on the relationship between EVs and industrial and AI and silver. What's interesting is that some of the biggest bulls and skeptics out there who are saying this is a bubble are the ones that are saying go buy gold. And I think that's also a little concerning. I think there's a bubblicious nature to some of this trade. But the fundamentals that have had gold moving not for one years, not two years, but outperforming a bull market since October of 22, which has been the greatest bull market of all times, is real and it's something we've been talking about for a long time. So I know on days like today it's easy to get sensational on a light volume day. But I think what everyone here is saying, there's real stuff behind these moves. I'm just not sure I'm chasing silver today.

[Bonnell]

Yeah, I hear you on the Gold Trader. And again, no pushback. They're kind of bringing the conversation full circle back to silver. I do think the point that you make about the adjacent trade is very pertinent here. And I think you always have people particularly on the retail side, but frankly even those that have missed out on those runs, you're looking for some type of corollary in order to kind of put your hat in that air race and that the industrial nature of silver.

[Brian Sullivan]

The semi because the conductivity, it's highly electrical, Correct?

[Bonnell]

Right. And you've already seen that. You've already seen the run up in the chips, you've seen the run up in cloud, you've seen the run up in the utilities. We what's the next thing where you can derivative. There you go.

[Brian Sullivan]

Is silver.

[Bonnell]

There you go.

[Brian Sullivan]

Also by the way heavily used in solar cells. So if you're. And if you by the way bring up silver and First Solar the stock, I'll bet you they track because the use in solar and the connectivity and conductivity.

[Bonnell]

To your point, you'd rather own the opco.

[Brian Sullivan]

What's that?

[Bonnell]

Definitely rather own First Solar. I mean playing that kind of correlation.

[Brian Sullivan]

Versus silver, the commodity.

[Bonnell]

Correct to your, to your very first point. You actually have an OPCO there. That is utility.

[Brian Sullivan]

You can value the earnings.

[Bonnell]

Absolutely.

[Tim Seymour]

But look at, look at industrial metals too. I mean look at the real industrial metals.

[Brian Sullivan]

Look at copper.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean copper is making all time highs. Look at that CapEx ETF that we talk about the gold and copper miners and many of those miners are the same miners. Some of them happen to be gold miners first, gold miners second. But if you're Freeport for example, you're in both spaces and Freeport's actually lag the move in the copper miners.

[Brian Sullivan]

You said you were going to get to copper and you are a man of your word.

[Tim Seymour]

Well it's, you know, thank you Brian. Someone recognizes that.

[Brian Sullivan]

So maybe you didn't miss the big metals trade. That's okay. We hope that you've been invested in stocks and if you're watching or listening to fast money we assume that you are those investments have also done very well. More record highs at earlier today for the market turn around a little bit. But Tim's earlier point, very, very low volume dates actually a federal holiday today. But we are about ready to get.

[Tim Seymour]

30 double time for this then.

[Brian Sullivan]

I hope so. Yeah Bono, we're about ready to end the third year of this remarkable rally with double digit gains three years in a row. That's nice but let's focus on next year as well. Bring in Ben Emmons. He is founder and chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors. Ben, I saw you on the other screen sort of listening intently to our industrial metals discussion. It kind of all rolls into the Fed which I think, correct me if I'm wrong will be a big part of the discussion in the first half of 2026. What is your expectation for. Well everything.

[Ben Emmons]

That is right Brian. I think that it's really the Fed will drive a lot of it initially because we're going to get a new Fed chair announced and we're going to get to Lisa Cook case, you know some sort of resolution on that and then we have the FOMC meeting and we have the market price up immediately for rate cut. So there's a lot pending up there. And I think to the discussion about gold, one other reason why gold is up so much is is the fact that the moment came out with this is meeting in December. Gold just took off and that was actually also related I think to the real interest rate, the funds rate account for inflation that continues to slowly to decline. That's not a big power buying gold. So it is the Fed that's driving here a lot with also its liquidity that's restarting to like we're going to get the report today that shows the Fed's balance sheet is continues to expand. So I think that's another big story next year Brian as that balance she starts to expand it will affect broader markets.

[Brian Sullivan]

Will we're going to get the announcement at some point on who the next Fed chair nominee because they've got to be confirmed. Confirmed will be we've narrowed it down. Steve Lispin's done a great job. There's four or five really sort of final candidates. Do you care does the market care? Is there one candidate? One of the two Kevin's a Rick Reed or maybe somebody else that would be better or worse for the equity markets.

[Ben Emmons]

Well I think there's an interesting take to give their Brian because you take Rick Reader, right? I mean he's like Us he's a portfolio manager, he's a trader. You know, someone with that type of background. When he was talking to Scott Wagner on one of his interviews, he'd really talk about like how to use the balance sheet in a more creative way to stimulate the economy and affect that for markets. So he could be really good friend of the markets. But so in the case of Kevin Wash or Kevin Hassett, that's a very different story. Think back of April when Kevin Hassett was out there on the wire saying that the administration is looking to remove Powell. You know, the market really gyrated all that against Kevin War shoes, very much against qe. Not very strong about this balance sheet expansion. So I think the word still out on how the market will respond to who will be announced next. I think we've is truly a friend of the markets. Kevin. Kevin, that could be a different story.

[Tim Seymour]

Hey Ben. So let's talk about this dynamic of also the political cycle and just where you think that the need to be politically in vogue, which means actually stimulative is something that will also push pressure on gold down in the dollar, but ultimately be limited back to the Fed, who may be at least more influenced at this point going into midterms. I saw your notes. I think it's fascinating and I think it's part of a cycle that says some of these trades that we're just talking about are going to continue. And also a steeper yield curve. Curious what you think also why the curve is steepening in the way it is. I understand a bull steepening from the short end because of lower rates, but we're also not seeing the long end come down in any way.

[Ben Emmons]

Yeah, that's right. I think to start with that, that that steepening of the curve, that's very likely to continue. One, as you mentioned, if you're getting more rate cuts, getting actually more than what the markets priced in, that will not only bullshit in the curve, meaning shorter rates lower, but it will push up long term rates because if you bring rates down faster, stimulates the economy, then we're going to see the investments coming into the economy next year. You know, Japan and the US announced that overnight that they're going to expedite the investment as one first step. So GDP is going to expand. So that could lead to steepening of the curve. And then against that political backdrop that you talked about, the cycle people played in the basement trade as they say, so through the of gold or through silver or even through other type of ways that I think will continue because there is too much uncertainty about how will this feature truly function within the fomc towards the White House is a really different setup. I think that we'll be used to and we can speculate on this, but I think the market is definitely wary of that. They're trying to try to price in this different Fed chair with a steeper curve and higher gold price. And I think that will Continue.

[Brian Sullivan]

Ben Emmons, FedWatch Advisors. Ben, always a pleasure. Thank you very much for coming on. Do appreciate that.

[Ben Emmons]

Thank you very much.

[Brian Sullivan]

Thank you very much. But I don't want to comment on anything Ben just said or like, do you have a preference, for lack of a better term, on who the next Fed chair is?

[Bonnell]

Not touching that one.

[Tim Seymour]

Smart.

[Bonnell]

Going back to what Ben said, listen, the debasement trade I think is something that you're likely going to see, see in markets. There has to be some reconciliation between the fact that we see Fed funds futures pricing in several rate cuts and you have Fed governors coming out and saying perhaps it's one, maybe it's two, not, not verbatim. But that's what they're intimating. So I think that is what's being expressed in the commodities market right now.

[Brian Sullivan]

All right, good stuff there. Good conversation, lot to chew on. All right, we have got a lot more to chew on. We've got another 40 plus minutes left in the show. And coming up, Nvidia announcing really not a full deal, but largest purchase ever will explain exactly what they're doing for $20 billion, maybe why they're doing it, what it means for Nvidia and the air race. Plus we're going off the charts for a closer look. Energy, oil, it kind of stuck in the mud, so to speak. Will it get back above that level? And if so, will we see a move in the oil stocks? Katie's got more on that. We've got a lot more to do if you're watching fast. We're back right after this.

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[Brian Sullivan]

All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Hope you have a great Friday, wherever you may be. It's Friday, right?

[Tim Seymour]

Yes, it feels like Monday.

[Bonnell]

Friday.

[Brian Sullivan]

It's like Monday with the Friday, not the Monday. Nvidia shares up a little bit today about 1%, looking at about a 5% gain for the week, by the way. For Nvidia, it's fairly tame. But the latest move comes as Nvidia puts its cash pile to work making its largest purchase ever. CNBC's McKinsey Sagalos has more on I guess the deal. That's not quite a deal, but it's kind of a deal. What's the deal?

[Chris Harvey]

Right.

[Brian Sullivan]

The deal is that Nvidia just paid $20 billion for a company founded by one of the architects of Google's tpu. The chip that has become Nvidia's most formidable rival. Grox founder Jonathan Ross helped build Alphabet's in house AI chip before starting his own company and now he's joining in video along with the kind of expertise that helped Google land major cloud deals with Anthropic and Meta. So Nvidia it is essentially hiring away talent that knows how to compete against them. Nvidia's cash pile has ballooned to $60 billion, up from 13 billion two years ago and it has been deploying it across the AI stack. 900 million for in Fabrica CEO and tech 5 billion in to Intel 100 billion proposed for OpenAI plus backing Crusoe Cohere and Core Weave, Metta, Google and Microsoft have all used similar structures. Call it a licensing agreement, hire the executives, avoid all the regulatory scrutiny that comes with a full acquisition. Grox chips also solve a technical problem for Nvidia. They keep data on the processor itself rather than relying on high bandwidth memory, a supply chain that's been one of Nvidia's biggest bottlenecks. Brian MacKenzie Seagalos Mac really appreciate that. Thank you very much. Bottom your take?

[Bonnell]

Yeah, I mean I think this is very well done. One she's already touched on the regulatory hurdles that they've circumvented to A lot of the criticism that's been kind of waged against Nvidia as of late has been that the the the circular nature of the financing around some of the NEO clouds and some of their partnerships. This here essentially expands their moat or builds a new moat around this TPU and inference process where they already kind of had that leading that leadership advantage when it comes to training and the training and the and the software stack. So I think that combined together kind of continues to kind of put them in that leadership position and frankly I think they're still finding innovative ways to deploy capital rather than returning a dividend or issuing some type of cash back to shareholders. So I like to see the fact that they are still finding ways to grow and there's a real use case in terms of roi.

[Tim Seymour]

Well as someone that I'm long in video and I like the valuation and I think it's interesting here but I also like to see the price action on it day today when another one of these deals where they've used their balance sheet to whether it's and you're not von and but I mean is this circular investing? I don't know. This is clearly an infrastructure play in addition to a semiconductor company and and I kind of like this move as well. I mean it just they can do what they want. This is a rounding error. I mean we know a $20 billion deal while largest 20 billion is not.

[Brian Sullivan]

A is a rounding error for them but not for most companies.

[Tim Seymour]

Right. But, but so do you look at it on a relative basis from what it means. In other words is a $20 billion investment significant for Nvidia should be worried about it. It's obviously a major outplay but but I don't know I get the performance of the stock today on a light volume day albeit is interesting to me when we have not liked to see these kinds of headlines.

[Brian Sullivan]

Here's what I would say Bono on this is that. And this is from the radio. This is Grok Groq. This is not the twitter/x AI bot. I want to make that.

[Tim Seymour]

Or the former tight end of the New England Patriots.

[Brian Sullivan]

Yes, Gronk. Yes. Nvidia did not.

[Tim Seymour]

Yes.

[Brian Sullivan]

Go after him. Not yet.

[Bonnell]

You never know.

[Tim Seymour]

I'll tell you what, he's a big.

[Bonnell]

Fan of the show.

[Brian Sullivan]

He did a lot of other commercials. You never know right now. But my point is that $20 billion for a non purchase, it's not a buyout of a company that at least I can say I've never heard of. And you just wonder, are companies overpaying because they can. I don't maybe not. Maybe they underpaid. But you get my broader point where.

[Bonnell]

They'Re overpaying because that's the price that the market is dictating that they're going to have to pay to acquire these assets.

[Brian Sullivan]

Fair point.

[Bonnell]

Right. And to Tim's point, I think they're going to do 180, 190 billion free cash flow next year. 20 billion. What would you rather them do? Do nothing?

[Brian Sullivan]

Again? Like you're. When I asked you about the Fed chair, I don't have a take, but 200 billion in free cash flow. 20 billion, that's a lot of times free cash flow. I don't know anybody.

[Katie Stockton]

You know, the reaction as Tim mentioned is really positive. If Nvidia gets through about 191 on the chart, that would be a minor breakout for it. That would put next resistance above 210. So short term I think the momentum is behind the stock. But longer term, it does have a couple of downticks on the monthly. So for the last two months, sentiment seems to have shifted and I don't know if today's actions.

[Brian Sullivan]

The stock has printed money. It's made a lot of people, employees, investors, fast money, viewers, listeners, millionaires, I hope and I'm sure. Do you worry though that it hasn't really done much for four or five months?

[Katie Stockton]

It could be a healthy pause, but the long term deterioration is definitely there. So I feel like I'm a better seller of strength right now in Nvidia rather than looking to add exposure. I think there's better setups out there.

[Brian Sullivan]

I'm going to use that at home. Tim, when someone says, well, you're getting gaining weight, it's long term deterioration.

[Tim Seymour]

Okay, I thought someone was saying they were a better seller of strength in your case.

[Brian Sullivan]

I sold strength. I sold strength a long time ago. All right, we got a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Tim Seymour]

Holiday shopping season is in the rear view. So what does 2026 have in store for retailers? The New Year's resolutions that this space needs to keep strong stretched consumers spending next. But first, crude under pressure again as rising supplies send prices lower. What the charts have to say about the energy space and the stocks that could get impacted as oil tries to retake a key level. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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[Brian Sullivan]

Got to talk a little oil and energy. Kind of the tax when I'm here. Crude oil bumping up against its 50 day moving average before pulling back a little bit today into down two and a half percent. Just under 57 bucks. So what would it take for crude oil to break above the key support level? And how are some of the stocks in the space set up for the new Year ahead. Let's go off the charts with Katie Stockton. Katie, what are we looking at?

[Katie Stockton]

I'm excited about crude oil. For the first time we have on the demarc indicators a counter trend signal. And that means that we should see up to nine weeks of stabilization. And you could imagine over the course of nine weeks that we're likely to see crude oil. This is WTI on the generic futures lift above its 50 day moving average, which is roughly $59 per barrel. It wouldn't take much. It could happen in a day, it could happen in two weeks. But when it does happen, we feel that that acts as a positive technical catalyst, generates additional momentum behind the stocks, behind crude oil itself and solidifies what looks like the early stages of a potential turnaround. There is good support for crude oil. It's right around $55 per barrel. And so as long as that support levels intact and we have this countertrend signal active, which it still is, I think there's hope that we see a little bit of a breakout. The objective from that would be about $68 per barrel over the intermediate term. And of course there are companies that would stand to benefit from such a breakout. We've already seen some rotation to the benefit of the energy sector. The relative performance hasn't been great for the sector overall, but we have seen some of the individual stock stocks gain intermediate term upside momentum at a time when technology and other sectors are losing upside momentum. So that's intriguing to us. We know that the energy sector as a as a whole can act differently from the broader market. So especially for folks that think maybe the broader market is losing some steam here, energy might be a good option for them with this potential catalyst. So I'd highlight SLB is one chart to look at. We have a long term trend turnaround that appears to be underway for that chart. So SLB has a base breakout following a long term downtrend and I think that acts as a nice catalyst. There's pullbacks underway right now in this sector. So I think within the next couple of weeks we'll have a nice entry point that brings support levels in line with resistance levels already having been cleared. Targa Resources TRGP would be another one to take a look at. This is a secular uptrend stock still, but within that context we saw a cyclical down move, a basing phase and a breakout there as well. Now that former resistance for Target should become support going forward. We also like, you know, Halliburton, Exxon Mobil, there's a lot of Names that to us are poised to benefit from that kind of breakout.

[Brian Sullivan]

Well, it's interesting Chris, because and thank you very much Katie, because if you're looking at slb, formerly known as Schloss.

[Jerry Storch]

Yeah.

[Brian Sullivan]

I mean at some point I'll say. But maybe that point is already here. I don't know yet.

[Tim Seymour]

Not yet for me.

[Brian Sullivan]

Not yet. Go back. Yeah. It's formerly known as Twitter and X. But maybe those stocks which are sort of the early stage of production exploration would signal a turn. I know you're not an individual stocks person, but what is your take on energy and energy stocks generally?

[Chris Harvey]

So, so Brian, I think they're a great second half story. First half not so sure about. They're washed out, they're beaten down. If the Fed gets involved, they're going to move. They're really going to move and as.

[Brian Sullivan]

A result move up.

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Move up.

[Chris Harvey]

Yes.

[Tim Seymour]

Right.

[Chris Harvey]

I can see them work in the second half but what I want to see is I want to see rates go lower. I want to see the Fed get really aggressive. I want to see them light up the housing market, light up the economy. I think that can happen. I also think what we're going to do to Tim's point earlier is we were talking about the precious metals. There's going to be a transition from the precious metals to the more cyclical metals. I think there's going to be a transition to the more economically sensitive commodities, be it energy, be it oil or otherwise. And I think the stocks are setting up fabulously for a second half rally. And if you do get a sharp pullback in the first half, you want to start, you really do want to start picking away and start building a position.

[Tim Seymour]

And the stocks themselves I think have traded phenomenally given the weakness we've had in crude. Katie, lined up why I do think also it looks interesting to own it. I think the energy companies, if you, whether you do an XLE or Xomorite, so the ETF or Exxon or Chevron, these share prices are near one year highs with crude muddling around and having some difficulty. What we've heard from all the big integrators and I like the Europeans more so I like, I like Shell, I like Total more than I like the US the difference in coverage is not a question and you would think for some of these names when crude or Brent, whatever you're following has been muddling around 60 bucks and making slightly lower lows for a long time. I think the price action in this sector is good. Chris, probably right. I mean tactically I'm not sure this is the place, although you will see some follow through Resources and commodities are going higher as a group in my view. And some of that is dollar, some of that is a global economy. It's better people think Putting your hat.

[Brian Sullivan]

Canadian hat on, Tim, I like it. Well, I mean resources, commodities, look, I've heard pelts.

[Tim Seymour]

I want to make it clear. I mean, I feel like I was not really terribly polite to our friends north of the border who I love. But I just think some of the Canadian, some of the trading in gold companies up there over the years has been a little dubious.

[Brian Sullivan]

Tim, I don't say thank you.

[Tim Seymour]

An honest guy. An honest guy.

[Brian Sullivan]

Thank you.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah. Thank you.

[Brian Sullivan]

All right, Coming up, the economy isn't K shaped. Maybe it's tree shaped. Well, your next guest has to say about the consumer and apparently trees.

[Tim Seymour]

Oh boy.

[Brian Sullivan]

That's our tip off again to Canada. We're back right after this.

[Chris Harvey]

Missed a moment of fast.

[Tim Seymour]

Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Brian Sullivan]

All right. Welcome back to Fast Money. No post holiday hangover for some of these retailers. Names like Build a Bear, Target, Revolve Group, and Chewy, pretty much everything you need to own. We just named in four stocks. We're your leaders today. But your next guest suggests that even if this year's struggling names can benefit from strong spending this season, what does it mean for next year? Let's talk about it with Jerry Storch. He runs Storch Advisors. He is the former CEO at Hudson's Bay and Toys R Us. He was also vice chair at Target. Jerry, listen, I am surprised a little bit by the turnaround recently, last few weeks in Target stock. Maybe we can get to that. But your take overall on the numbers that you've seen so far for the holiday shopping season, because it ain't over yet this week, I can assure you, is a lot of people out there looking for bargains.

[Jerry Storch]

Well, I've been saying it's going to be a strong holiday season all year. The consumer is really hung in there, growing 4% in sales year over year, month after month after month after month. There's no reason they're going to suddenly stop spending during the holiday time. So I still think we're on pace for a 4 to 5% increase year over year in holiday sales. Very strong.

[Ben Emmons]

Yeah.

[Brian Sullivan]

How would that is that when you say 4 to 5%, is that because of inflation and the dollar value of the same goods is higher or is that just more people and more spending overall? Well, it's both.

[Jerry Storch]

There's always inflation in sales. But you know, people talk about sort of that K shaped economy. You mentioned that earlier. I keep looking at the, at the numbers, you know, kind of looking at clouds, trying to find animals. I don't see a K in there anywhere. You know, a K means sort of the wealthy people have done great and so they're going up and the less wealthy people have done poorly and they're going down. That's not what the numbers say. Certainly the wealthy have done well. The stock market's been great, it's made, made a lot of money. But they don't tend to spend the money by the way, they reinvest it. That's why everyone says the sales tax is a regressive tax. But they've done well. But meanwhile, people who don't make quite so much money, real wages are still up. Wages have risen faster than inflation and they continue to spend. So it's not like a K, it's like a tree where the branches are both going up just at different rates.

[Tim Seymour]

Jerry, your notes as it relates to home, the home, essentially home improvement retailers, whether it's Home Depot or Lowe's, you're not terribly bullish. You think the dynamics both around interest rates but also just frankly, housing starts and whatnot are not encouraging. And yet that K shaped economy, I kind of agree with you. I think there's a lot of consumption going on and I think it's underappreciated and I think the global growth story is underappreciated. Why not Home Depot and Lowe's? I mean valuation wise, and I know that's our job, but you know, from the trenches, what's your sense on where these guys are not hitting on all cylinders relative to other retailers that you love that have also had, I mean, a Wal Mart, you know, Costco, you can make an argument these guys had their two to three year run. Certainly those stocks did well.

[Jerry Storch]

It's an open book exam. You don't need to use the think method to figure out what's going to happen here. You know, look back in time. You see the numbers they've been posting and what Home Depot and Lowe's have been saying. They're saying, look, people are doing the small projects, that's fine, but not the big projects. And they're very interest rate sensitive tied to the housing industry. And we've seen there the level interest rates has held them back. That's true also for some of the home goods companies as well. Like A Williams Sonoma, you know, those kinds of companies as well. So, you know, I don't think that's going to change. Less interest rates, come down more. And they've said as much. Home Depot earnings analyst meeting where they looked forward into next year and said it's going to be slow.

[Chris Harvey]

So, Jerry, I have a question on that. So what happens next year if the Fed does start cutting rates? And if the Fed start cutting rates, your HELOCs are going to start to light up. Suddenly the US consumer has a lot more capacity than he or she had. And those, those Home Depots and the Lowe's make a lot more sense.

[Jerry Storch]

Well, absolutely. I totally agree with you. Right now, I'm not betting on anything. I'm looking at what's happening now. Right now we're Wal Mart's winning, Costco's winning with the consumer. They've had valuation concern that have hurt the stock. But TJ Max, TJX companies, you know, they've been winning and Amazon's been winning and those retailers have just been gobbling massive amounts of market share for everyone, everyone else. So if I were betting, man, I keep betting on that to happen because, you know, the best thing that happened in retail is what happened yesterday. So it's going to happen tomorrow.

[Brian Sullivan]

Jerry Storch, really appreciate your time. Hey, Jerry, have a great weekend. Good to chat with you. Talk to you soon. Thank you. By the way, Chris, I love the reference. The heloc, better known as the home equity line of credit. Coming up, bitcoin, down nearly 25% this quarter. But coming up, we'll chat with an industry insider who says a new record high could be in the cards when the new year kicks off and the traditional bitcoin cycle may be over. Lot to talk about. That's next. All right, top of the show, we talk about how silver and gold and platinum palladium are all booming. Well, cryptocurrencies lately going in the opposite direction as we headed in the new year. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, they're all down 20% or more in the last 90 days. But again, that was then. What's ahead? Let's put bring in Swan Bitcoin CEO Corey Clipston. All right, Corey, so obviously you're exposed to bitcoin. You want it to do well. You're not coming in as a neutral party. Make the bull case for bitcoin and other cryptos right now.

[Corey Clipston]

Brian, you're the lucky charm for bitcoin. And we're here to usher in a nice new rally. In 2026. So yeah, it has been a rough fall right after a nice rise. Remember we actually touched 73k before that rise up to 126 and now we're settling into kind of the high 80s. It's been bouncing between 85 and 90, maybe 91 for a couple of weeks now. You know, I think the, the bigger story if I zoom out is these four year cycles that we got so used to in the bitcoin space where there was a bull market peak in 2013, 2017, 2021, followed by the price never actually reaching that level the following year. So there was never a time in 2014 where the price surpassed that high of 2013. Same thing for 18 versus 17, same thing for 22 versus 21 with the RTX collapse and all of that. And I think because we didn't see this astronomical price rise in 2025 that you might have expected if you still believed in those having driven cycles or liquidity driven cycles or whatever it was that was causing that four year cycle, because there wasn't an astronomical rise, it's hard to imagine some precipitous fall from here. It seems like there's plenty of institutional money and government money on the bid and lots of people buying and more and more people coming in. Adoption in bitcoin is kind of a one way motion. People don't tend to get into bitcoin and then get out of it. They generally stick. It's just a matter of how much they buy. And so I think we have more than a 50% chance is how I handicap it, of a new all time high in 2026. So I actually do expect that we'll see above 125k next year.

[Brian Sullivan]

Above 125k. This might be a little bit off topic. And by the way, I love being a lucky charm. It's better than the Grim reaper. Yeah, right, which is this. A lot of these bitcoin miners, the ciphers of the world, Terror Wolfs, hut eights, whatever they are, they've gone more now to AI power. They're kind of, they're not leaving bitcoin mining, but the focus has been elsewhere. Does that actually help or hurt the bitcoin case if fewer huge industrial miners are going after that ledger?

[Corey Clipston]

Look, the bitcoin mining space is always so dynamic and there is a nice interplay between smaller scale miners and these larger institutional industrial scale miners. And yeah, you are absolutely right. There has been tremendous stock performance by the bitcoin mining stocks that have leaned into AI over the last few years. And you see even some of the larger ones like Core Scientific, which came out of bankruptcy famously and has had a nice little run here, I think they've just come out and said that they're going to be 100% HPC by 2028 or 2029. So they want to get out of bitcoin mining completely. All this does is just create more opportunity. And remember, just because hash rate might fall or go up or whatever, it doesn't really change the security model of bitcoin and it really doesn't change anything about the price, the, the hash rate and sort of what it costs to mine a bitcoin is a lagging indicator. It's something that actually follows the price, not the other way around.

[Brian Sullivan]

It's well said. Listen, you made a lot of people at it that are bullish on bitcoin. Happy Good way to go into the weekend, Corey. Really appreciate your view. Thank you very much.

[Corey Clipston]

Thank you.

[Brian Sullivan]

All right, coming up, defense stocks, they're in the crosshairs because of some new sanctions out of China. Will give you the news and the trade coming up. All right, Bono, when you flagged this earlier, you've got defense stocks, you've got China. What's the thesis here?

[Bonnell]

Well, the thesis here is that I think you should continue to invest the way that you were going to prior to getting this news if you wanted the exposure to the defense stocks. And any pullback likely gives you an opportunity to do that. On the headline, I think it is quite alarming. It just shows the underlying tension that is always possible to pop up when it comes to U.S. relations. But in terms of the industrial or financial exposure that these companies actually have to China, it's relatively de minimis. We already have tariffs, we have export restrictions. The way that I think you express the view is actually through your MP materials or your USAR in terms of possible escalation of restrictions around rare earths. So if you're going to express a view, I think you look to the recent weakness that we've seen in those names and express that view there.

[Chris Harvey]

I like the story. I think defense stocks, there's still a great secular and cyclical story we're rearming. From a humanitarian point of view, that's not great. But when I look at what's happening over Naito in Europe, this is something that's going to occur year after year after year for the next three to five years. And the same thing in the United States.

[Brian Sullivan]

Yeah. And by the way, we're not, we're not judging the news. We're just using the news to figure out a way to the news is going to exist whether we're here or not. All right, up next, your final trades. Katie Stockton kick off the final trades.

[Katie Stockton]

So I'm going to go with bitcoin and it might be surprising but the center achievements gotten pretty bad there. So as long as you keep a stop loss before about below about 84,000 I think that's fair.

[Chris Harvey]

Chris software great risk Reward consolidating in 2026 it's going to break out buy one.

[Bonnell]

I think strategy is going to give you an opportunity to enter here. I'm with Katie in terms of negative sentiment around bitcoin and it's trading below fair value to its bitcoin holdings.

[Tim Seymour]

Brian, thanks for joining us. I love to hang out but I know guys, you get a train to catch. I tell you what, I I do like Freeport and I think gold and copper are going higher.

[Brian Sullivan]

Great stuff. You guys made it easy for me. Appreciate it everybody. Have a great weekend. By the way, I'll see you back here on Monday. I may just sleep under the desk. Mad Money with Jim starts right now.

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All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Ten years from today, Lisa Schneider will trade in her office job to become the leader of a pack of dogs as the owner of her own dog rescue. That is a second act made possible by the reskilling courses Lisa's taking now with AARP to help make sure her income lives as long as she does. And she can finally run with the big dogs and the small dogs who just think they're big dogs. That's why the younger you are, the more you need AARP. Learn more at aarp.org skills.