CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Gold Rally Keeps Shining… And FTAI Aviation Looks To Rebound
Release Date: February 5, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Carter Worth, Guy Adami
Location: Live from Studio B at the Nasdaq Markets, Times Square

1. Gold Rally Reaches All-Time Highs

Timeframe: [01:03] - [06:05]

The episode kicks off with an in-depth discussion on the soaring gold market. Hosted by Melissa Lee, the panel delves into the factors driving gold to new heights, emphasizing its status as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.

Key Highlights:

• Tariffs and Trade Wars: Ongoing tariffs on China heighten fears of a trade war, bolstering gold's appeal as an inflation hedge.
• Interest Rates: The 10-year yield remains low, down nearly 30 basis points from January highs, creating a favorable backdrop for gold.
• Gold Miners’ Performance: The GDX ETF, which tracks gold miners, has surged over 20% this year, outpacing the metal itself.

Notable Quotes:

• Carter Worth [02:29]: "Central banks have been buying gold hand over fist for the last three years. Gold can continue to go higher."
• Guy Adami [03:05]: "Gold has been working well even in a strong dollar environment."

Expert Insights:

• Tim Seymour points out that gold is still 20% below its all-time high when adjusted for inflation, suggesting more room for growth.
• Steve Grasso differentiates gold from Bitcoin, labeling Bitcoin as "risk on" while gold remains "risk off," advocating for leveraged plays on gold miners for higher returns.

2. Tech Sector Divergence: Alphabet vs. Meta

Timeframe: [07:56] - [17:09]

A significant portion of the episode explores the contrasting performances of Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and Meta (formerly Facebook). While Alphabet shares plummet post-earnings, Meta experiences its longest winning streak, raising questions about the underlying causes.

Key Highlights:

• Alphabet’s Decline: Alphabet fell over 7% after disappointing cloud business results and unanticipated capital expenditures.
• Meta’s Surge: Meta achieved its 13th consecutive day of gains, outperforming Alphabet despite both companies facing similar market challenges.
• Pairs Trade Analysis: Chartmaster Tim Seymour presents a pairs trade opportunity, suggesting a potential breakout for Meta relative to Alphabet.

Notable Quotes:

• Mark Mahaney [12:48]: "I would prefer Google. There's more room for the narrative to change, more room for the multiple to go."
• Steve Grasso [11:15]: "Meta has a 98% reliance on ad revenue. That leaves a lot of room for a monkey wrench to be thrown in with an economy with spend with any ads."

Expert Insights:

• Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI highlights that both companies have maintained a 29% return on invested capital but criticizes Alphabet for its opaque cost structure and regulatory overhangs.
• Guy Adami discusses the regulatory challenges Alphabet faces, including a DOJ investigation and concerns over AI disrupting its core search business.

3. FTAI Aviation's Share Rebound

Timeframe: [24:31] - [29:30]

FTAI Aviation, an aviation leasing company, is spotlighted for its recent stock recovery following accusations from short sellers about earnings misrepresentation.

Key Highlights:

• Short Sellers’ Allegations: Claims that FTAI bought engines during COVID at depressed values and resold them at current market prices.
• Jefferies’ Forensic Analysis: Analyst Sheila Kailu debunks the allegations, emphasizing FTAI's robust EBITDA growth and transparent business practices.
• Future Outlook: FTAI is expected to release earnings on February 26th and file its 10-K by March 3rd, which could serve as catalysts for further stock gains.

Notable Quotes:

• Phil LeBeau [25:24]: "FTAI repairs engines at a discount to major OEMs, which is how they achieve their margins."
• Sheila Kailu [27:43]: "FTAI is growing EBITDA 45% per year, making them an easy target for the shorts."

Expert Insights:

• Tim Seymour suggests that the stock is currently at a tempting level, considering its long-term outperformance.
• Steve Grasso envisions significant upside, citing FTAI's solid fundamentals and analyst support.

4. Qualcomm’s Earnings Beat Expectations

Timeframe: [34:30] - [37:20]

Qualcomm reported better-than-expected earnings, yet shares declined post-announcement. CEO Cristiano Aman discussed growth strategies and market challenges during an exclusive interview.

Key Highlights:

• Earnings Performance: Qualcomm beat both top and bottom-line estimates with earnings of $3.41 per share and revenues of $11.5 billion.
• Market Share Growth: Significant gains in the U.S. retail laptop market and premium smartphone segment in China.
• AI Integration: Introduction of Deep Seek with partnerships like Microsoft's Copilot PC, enhancing Qualcomm’s AI capabilities.

Notable Quotes:

• Cristiano Aman [34:47]: "We're tracking great. Our customers are gaining share in the premium tier, boosting our QCT business to its first $10 billion quarter."
• Guy Adami [35:32]: "Deep SEQ running on Snapdragon phones and PCs is a major tailwind for us."

Expert Insights:

• Carter Worth emphasizes Qualcomm's diversification across multiple end markets, mitigating risks associated with heavy reliance on any single sector.
• Guy Adami acknowledges the stock's minor setbacks but remains optimistic about Qualcomm's strategic positioning in AI and premium markets.

5. Analysis of Transport Stocks

Timeframe: [38:10] - [40:31]

The transport sector, encompassing road and rail, is analyzed for its recent performance and future trajectory.

Key Highlights:

• Performance Metrics: The S&P Road and Rail Index is down nearly 5%, contrasting with the Dow Transport’s 3% rise.
• Long-Term Trends: Over the past 30 years, road and rail stocks have significantly outperformed the S&P 500, but recent trends show a lag.
• Chart Analysis: Tim Seymour presents charts indicating a potential return to the long-term trend as road and rail stocks may face downward pressure.

Notable Quotes:

• Carter Worth [40:05]: "If you look at the big three rail, CSX, Union, UNPNSC, they've been trading sideways. I'm actually with CBW on this one."
• Tim Seymour [39:42]: "We've broken trend and my hunch is lower. We're headed back to trend yet again."

Expert Insights:

• Guy Adami points out the cyclicality of the sector and its sensitivity to economic conditions, suggesting caution in current valuations.
• Steve Grasso and Carter Worth discuss the sector’s recent volatility, with differing views on whether it indicates a sell-off or a buying opportunity.

6. Investor Sentiment Survey Insights

Timeframe: [41:06] - [43:36]

The episode concludes with a discussion on Investor Portfolio Dynamics (PD)’s latest sentiment survey, highlighting shifting investor perspectives amid market uncertainties.

Key Highlights:

• Fading Optimism: While a majority remains somewhat optimistic, nearly 40% express skepticism or hesitancy.
• Market Concerns: Tariffs, US-China relations, and technological developments like AI are major worry points.
• Investment Strategies: Despite fears of bubbles, investors continue to hold onto high-performing tech stocks.

Notable Quotes:

• Caleb Silver [41:51]: "Almost the same exact portfolio of the Nvidias of the world. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, you've got Meta in there."
• Caleb Silver [42:54]: "It's a bit of a contrarian indicator because I think everyone was too far on this side of the boat."

Expert Insights:

• Caleb Silver underscores the persistence of holding onto top tech stocks despite perceived overvaluation, reflecting a strategic focus on long-term growth.
• Steve Grasso interprets the survey results as a sign of growing caution among investors, potentially signaling upcoming market movements.

Final Trades and Market Wrap-Up

Timeframe: [43:44] - [44:57]

The panelists share their final stock picks and observations before signing off.

Key Highlights:

• Guy Adami: Advocates for buying FTAI Aviation at current levels, citing its strong fundamentals.
• Steve Grasso: Recommends MP Materials as a long-term hold with potential for significant appreciation.
• Carter Worth: Suggests Magnite (MGNI) as a noteworthy play in advertising and marketing.

Final Remarks: Melissa Lee wraps up the episode by reinforcing the importance of strategic investing amidst market volatility, encouraging listeners to stay informed and cautious.

Conclusion

This episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive overview of key market movements, highlighting the robust performance of gold, the contrasting fortunes of major tech giants Alphabet and Meta, and the rebound of FTAI Aviation shares. The panel offers valuable insights into Qualcomm's strategic growth, the nuanced performance of transport stocks, and evolving investor sentiments influenced by global economic factors. Whether you're an investor looking to navigate volatile markets or seeking detailed analyses of sector trends, this episode delivers actionable intelligence to support informed decision-making.