CNBC’s Fast Money – September 2, 2025

Episode: Google On The Move After Antitrust Ruling… And A Major Market Forecast
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
Key Segments: Google’s Antitrust Ruling, Market Trends, Kraft Heinz Split, Alibaba Rally, S&P Forecast, Lisa Cook/Fed, Constellation Brands

Overview

This episode centered on Alphabet’s (Google) major victory in its closely watched U.S. antitrust ruling, the implications for tech stocks, and the outlook for the broader market. The team also unpacked market action heading into a traditionally weak month, analyzed Kraft Heinz’s surprise split (and Warren Buffett’s reaction), discussed Alibaba’s resurgence, and covered a big S&P 500 forecast. Additional topics included political wrangling at the Federal Reserve and sobering news from Constellation Brands.

1. Google Antitrust Ruling: A New Chapter for Big Tech

Timestamps: 02:05 – 16:39; 36:40 – 41:51

Key Points

• Federal Court Decision:

  • Judge Amit Mehta ruled Google does not have to spin off Chrome or Android (02:28), ending the most severe threat facing Alphabet but confirming the company engaged in monopoly conduct. This sent Alphabet shares up over 8% after hours, near record highs (12:52).
  • However, Google must share certain data with competitors and is barred from making its AI the exclusive default on platforms like Android or Chrome.

• Remedies & Ramifications:

  • Jonathan Kanter (CNBC contributor, former Asst. Attorney General, Antitrust Division) explained this as a "mixed bag." While breakup is off the table, new restrictions on AI search defaults and data sharing could open doors for rivals like Perplexity and OpenAI (04:40–06:18).
  • Payments to peers (ex: Apple) for default search deals can continue since disruption would hurt companies like Apple, which earns $20B+ per year from Google (02:28). Judge left door open for more penalties if these remedies fail (11:41).

• Will There Be Appeals?

  • Both Google and DOJ may appeal for different reasons—Google to challenge the liabilities/remedies; the DOJ may argue remedies don't go far enough (07:46).

• Impact on Innovation & AI:

  • Kanter: “Browsers are going to be the theater for the next battle of AI” (06:18).
  • Intent is to keep market open for new players and not repeat mistakes of the Microsoft era.

Notable Quotes

“I think on some aspects, the most extreme remedies ... like a divestiture of Chrome, is now off the table ... that is without a doubt a victory for Google.” — Jonathan Kanter (04:40)

"The idea behind the remedy is to allow companies ... who also want to deliver search results to bootstrap gen AI search to chatbots to try to deliver a combined experience and take on Google." — Jonathan Kanter (05:16)

“The likelihood is high that Google will appeal ... It is also possible the DOJ will cross-appeal ... there are a few more rounds left before we know the final outcome.” — Jonathan Kanter (07:46)

Panel Analysis

• Stock Perspective:

  • Guy Adami: Relief rally due to certainty, but breakup might have led to higher value in the long run (12:58).
  • Karen Feinerman: Wonders how much more upside is left; Google’s dominance is already immense (13:33).
  • Tim Seymour: The decision is a "big win" not just for Google, but also for Apple and should be positive for legacy business models (15:55).
  • Dan Nathan: Unconvinced the news fundamentally changes Google’s upside from here (14:40; 45:07).

• Impacts on Apple:

  • The judge’s allowance for continued payments benefits Apple, sending its shares higher after hours (15:34, 15:55).
  • Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management): “Apple will still get 20 billion a year from the Google search deal even though it’s renegotiated every year and Google still has 90%+ search share.” (37:17–39:00)

• Wider Big Tech and Market Implications:

  • The remedy will be instructive for other antitrust cases, but not definitive. The court retains the right to “crack it back open and tighten the screws” if remedies don’t work (11:41).

2. Market Trends & Major S&P 500 Forecast

Timestamps: 31:35 – 36:40

Key Points

• September Slump:

  • Markets kicked off September in the red; panel discussed whether this is the start of a seasonal trend or just noise.

• Bullish S&P 500 Price Targets:

  • Julian Emanuel (Evercore ISI): Raised his year-end S&P 500 target to 6250, predicts a huge 2026 run to 7,750 (21% upside from here).
    • Drivers: Unprecedented AI adoption—“AI has every potential to be as significant, if not more, than the Internet revolution.” (31:39)
    • Expects a more cooperative Fed in coming years and broadening sector participation beyond just tech.
    • Cautions about valuation risks and advises hedging, especially after large capex outlays in AI and high current multiples (33:27–34:53).

Notable Quotes

“All the work that we’ve done ... shows that AI has every potential to be as significant, if not more, than the Internet revolution.” — Julian Emanuel (31:39)

"There hasn't been a bull market cycle that's ended without a really vigorous capital market surge." — Julian Emanuel (35:20)

3. Fed Independence & Lisa Cook's Firing

Timestamps: 16:39 – 23:39

Key Points

• Lisa Cook Firing Controversy:
  • Former Fed Governor Cook is contesting her dismissal by President Trump over alleged past mortgage irregularities.
  • Cook’s legal team argues her firing threatens the Fed’s independence: “the greatest threat to the Federal Reserve Board’s political independence in its 111 year history.” (16:50)
  • Panel and Steve Liesman discuss the tension between due process, White House objectives, and central bank independence.

Notable Quotes

“Letting the firing stand would give the President, ‘unfettered control over the Fed.’” — Steve Liesman, quoting Cook’s filing (17:35)

4. Kraft Heinz Split: Buffett Disappointed

Timestamps: 24:57 – 28:00

Key Points

• Kraft Heinz falls 7% as it splits into two companies.
• Warren Buffett (largest shareholder, 27.5%) told CNBC he’s “disappointed,” doesn’t believe splitting the company will fix its underlying problems (25:34).
• The panel is surprised management ignored Buffett/Abel’s concerns.

Notable Quotes

“That is amazing to me. I mean, that’s a 27% holder ... the single best kind of holder you could possibly have.” — Karen Feinerman (25:34)

5. Alibaba’s Cloud & China Tech Resurgence

Timestamps: 28:00, 30:15

• Alibaba bucked the weak market, rising on cloud sales acceleration and bullish analyst upgrades—optimistic it can outpace Baidu and Tencent in China’s AI race.
• Panel sees this as a rare bright spot for Chinese equities.

6. Beer Blues: Constellation Brands Tanks on Weakness

Timestamps: 41:51 – 44:41

Key Points

• Constellation Brands (Corona, Modelo) plunged to 5-year lows after cutting guidance.
• Hispanic consumers (50% of beer sales) sharply reduced purchases. Executives warn 2–4% sales drop for the year.
• Panel pins blame on “alt beverage” (ciders, THC-infused drinks); old-guard beer brands lose ground among younger consumers.

Notable Quotes

“This was a high-end beer story ... they were actually taking market share from ... a falling environment. But the demographic story here is clear. The alt beverage space, especially amongst younger [drinkers] ...” — Tim Seymour (42:35)

• Panel levity: Dan Nathan tried “strawberry infused cactus water”—outcome: “Not particularly well ... this show ends in five minutes” (43:39–44:00).

7. Fast Money Special Event Announcement

Timestamps: 29:03 – 30:15; 44:11–44:55

• Fast Money is hosting a live holiday special at the NASDAQ (Dec 11). Viewers can get tickets via QR code or CNBC website.

8. Final Trades

Timestamps: 44:55 – 45:22

• Tim Seymour: Apple – “This is a big win today for Apple, in addition to Google.” (44:57)
• Karen Feinerman: Ulta – “Sold off on earnings, but the call ... was too good.” (45:01)
• Dan Nathan: Not a buyer of Google here—great news for the company, not necessarily for the stock (45:07).
• Guy Adami: “What better way to get on the track for prosperity than to join us [at the live event].” (44:41)

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On Google’s stock action:

  “Relief rally due to certainty ... but if they had broken up Google, the stock would have probably gone higher.” — Guy Adami (12:58)

• On the Fed battle:

  “Letting the firing stand would give the President, ‘unfettered control over the Fed.’” — Steve Liesman (17:35)

Summary Table: Important Segments & Timestamps

| Topic | Main Speaker(s) | Timestamps | |--------------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------| | Google Antitrust Ruling | Eamon Javers, Kanter | 02:05–16:39; 36:40–41:51 | | S&P 500 Market Forecast (AI) | Julian Emanuel | 31:35–36:40 | | Kraft Heinz/Warren Buffett | Panel | 24:57–28:00 | | Lisa Cook/Fed Independence | Steve Liesman, Panel | 16:39–23:39 | | Alibaba’s Resurgence | Panel | 28:00, 30:15| | Constellation Brands, Beer Trends | Panel | 41:51–44:41 | | Final Trades | Panel | 44:55–45:22 |

For full details, listen to the corresponding segments as outlined above. The panel’s candid, at times skeptical, and always sharp market analysis translates the headlines into actionable investor insight in their signature Fast Money style.