
Google riding high ahead of earnings, with potential for its longest win streak in years. Japan’s election results have the Yen strengthening against the dollar. And Sarepta’s slide continues as the drug developer rebukes the FDA’s request to halt shipments of its gene therapy drug. Why one Wall Street analyst says the stock could head to zero. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Go go Google shares of Alpha quietly pulling off a nine day rally as it gets ready to report earnings. How much higher could it be heading and mean for its run? And heading to zero? That's a call from one analyst. After Surrepta's most recent drop. Can the company's entire value really be wiped out? What's it mean for the other drug development moonshots plus the land of the rising yen? What Japan's election means for investing in the country. Can you hear me now? Verizon shares jump after earnings and Cleveland Cliffs climbing, shares of the steel manufacturer hitting their highest level in nearly five months. Can the stock keep its momentum up? We'll debate that. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Steve Grasso and Guy Adami. We kick things off with Alphabet's mighty winning streak, the tech giant locking in nine straight days of gains, its longest run since 2019. One more update would tie its best streak ever. That stock up about 9% during its recent rally, all ahead of what could be a pivotal earnings report. Alphabet releasing results Wednesday afternoon along with Tesla and IBM. Investors will be keyed into any updates on its progress. The company has struggled to impress on that front so far. While the broader NASDAQ set another record close today, Alphabet is only just positive for the year. Well, the SEC talk tech stocks momentum can continue through Wednesday's report. Will the run come to an abrupt halt? Karen, how are we setting up with the nine day winning streak going in?
Karen Feiderman
Well, I can't speak to whether it will go up tomorrow, but I like it. I haven't changed my position. There's a lot to like here. One of this thing, one something's going on is just catch up, right? It has really been the laggard and there's a lot of things to like. Obviously the valuation I think is not in any way stretched at about 19 times. And there's Waymo, right? You see that there's a big valuation for Tesla's Robotaxi, whatever it, however it might grow into, I don't know. But Waymo, I don't think you can't tell what's embedded, you know, how much for each. But that's something also we talked a lot about as we Talk about Netflix, YouTube and so how valuable that is. And then there's the search business and the cloud business and the search business we all know has been under attack. We'll see. We'll actually get the search is overwhelmingly the most important thing in this business by far. Recently though, it does seem like their efforts have been more promising. So that's good. So it still is well below market multiple. So there's a lot to like. I don't think anything's really changed. The big overlay, the big concern is what is the ultimate, I guess how are they going to address the Justice Department's issues? On the one hand, right, they talk about a monopoly in search, but on the other hand we're seeing the market evolve in a way that doesn't speak to a monopoly in search. So I don't know. That is a big question mark.
Tim Seymour
Well, it's funny with Google because we talk about the expensive market, it doesn't seem to matter. So an expensive market doesn't necessarily limit you to the upside. So the question is, does it help you to the down? In other words, does it give you support and is it a rallying cry for a company that is cheap relative to itself? Google's probably 1 and a half to 2 turns cheap on a forward basis and that's for a lot of the reasons that we've talked about. So again, relative to itself, not the market. So it's even cheaper to a market that's more expensive relative to itself. But I think the things to be excited about is that the core search expectations out there are somewhere between 8 and 10%. I think that's going to be great. What you hear from the street are that channel checks and the check in on search so far are really quite positive. YouTube I think is going to be a standout to the upside and I think it's underappreciated. By the street in addition to the Waymo and I think that's really what the call here. I think the bar is actually quite low. I think the comps are quite easy relative to what we've seen before. I'd skew long.
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
Guy Adami
If you don't believe there's an existential risk in terms of search it's absolutely cheap. Karen just said 19 times. She's right. YouTube 12 and a half percent now I think they dominate. You know it's YouTube's world and Netflix world so everybody else is sort of vying for second and third place but the technical setup for this one is interesting. If you go back to this time last year we topped out at 190 sold off. Then we made an all time high earlier this year sold off. Here we are at 190. So for you head and shoulders fans out there are you the formation of the shampoo? No Tim, I've never had that problem. I don't dry scalp.
Melissa Lee
You brought it up by the way.
Guy Adami
I think Selson Blue is actually a better product But I digress we're in the midst of one right now. So how do you play this this thing close above 195 I think it's going to take out that prior all time high.
Steve Grasso
I am concerned about search. I think YouTube is your. Is your tailwind. You have cloud as your tailwind. I think there is an existential reason to be worried about search.
Melissa Lee
Why?
Steve Grasso
Perplexity Chachi beating I. I mean do you. I don't normally search through Google anymore. Do you?
Karen Feiderman
Yes, yeah I do. I use Perplexity and I use Grok and a bunch of other but my first go to is still Google.
Steve Grasso
I find that maybe it's the younger generation that it's. That's searching more with AI. I don't. Kids are searching now through TikTok right. So they search through their social media platforms. When I'm looking for things or restaurants now I actually look through Perplexity and then you could see where it's sourced but I. But I think that's the real risk and if that's 86% now, where does it go in the next five years? I mean it's down. It's down from. It's down dramatically in the last couple of years.
Melissa Lee
Doesn't it have any sort of inherent advantage in that it has this quote unquote. I mean if you value the install base on Apple doesn't Google in and of itself have a sort of installed base as well? I mean the default for a Lot of people is Google or is Chrome, you have Gmail. I mean there are a lot of things that are sort of built into this ecosystem that people are part of already.
Karen Feiderman
Well, one of the potential REM is Chrome being sold. Yeah, that would be, that would kind of be a big deal, I guess.
Tim Seymour
Yeah. And maybe this is a lot about how I search, but I'm not asking search open ended questions that require a lot of theory. I mean, I'm asking, I mean if you garbage in, garbage out, you know, I hear you.
Steve Grasso
Even the ones that don't need a lot of interpretation, I find are even better because they give you so such a drastic amount more of search and you could figure out it lists where it comes from. So even if, as I said before.
Tim Seymour
I think Google's doing that for me right now.
Steve Grasso
Yeah.
Tim Seymour
And they've made changes and they're changing on the fly. I think Google's changing with me. In other words, I don't feel like I'm left out. Yes, I use perplexity and yes, every once in a while I'll really ask those very difficult questions of life in an AI format. But most of search really does end up looking for a specific answer and it doesn't mean that the credibility of the answer isn't critical and the sourcing of the answer isn't critical. But I don't, I agree with your point, which is the same reason also though I'm bullish on Apple because I don't think there's anything that's been priced into Apple's role in AI either.
Melissa Lee
The fact that we're having this debate though, and that we have revealed that all of us use other search engines in addition to Google suggests that maybe their dominance is in fact being chipped away. Right. I mean that there is a chance that that dominance will continue to be, I think the best with every search that we put into a grok or perplex complexity or you know, chat up.
Tim Seymour
The ultimate test of that would be if Guy Adam is using an.
Melissa Lee
Interweb. So I don't know if that's.
Steve Grasso
Ten years ago revenue from search was 70% of their revenue. Now it's 56%. So I mean, and they're filling it, right? They're filling it with cloud, they're filling it with YouTube. But the numbers don't lie, right? Yeah, their revenue had a bigger portion of search in it.
Guy Adami
It's again, if you don't believe there's this and people have talked about it, I don't know where I come down because I think Google will figure it out. And YouTube is a monster. And don't sleep on Gemini. But if you don't believe that there are risks in front of them, then it's ridiculously cheap. And again, you get a close above that 195, $200 level and it's going to be off to the races to new highs.
Karen Feiderman
A couple things to your question. I think people do believe there's an existential threat. So this 19 times you back out the cash is what should it be? At least a market multiple. I think it should. So that would say if the market's trading at what, 23 times, the biggest.
Melissa Lee
Part of their business has an existential threat facing it.
Tim Seymour
Right.
Melissa Lee
To trade at a market.
Karen Feiderman
No, I'm saying it without that existential threat. It absolutely should be a market multiple. Let's just say 25 times, but it's 19 times. So there are six multiple turns that I think are speaking to that we don't know what the remedies are going to be, the uncertainty of it and how onerous could it be. I think one thing they could do, and I don't think they will do it, is find a way to unleash, unlock the value of YouTube and see what is that really worth. I don't think they'll do it, but that would be an interesting.
Melissa Lee
But what is the multiple if it had to divest its search business?
Karen Feiderman
Well, divested search or dismantle its search.
Melissa Lee
Somehow dismantle it in some way where it loses it?
Karen Feiderman
We don't know. I don't really know.
Melissa Lee
What below 19?
Karen Feiderman
Yes, I think so, but. But how much below? I don't know. So this, if we could do that rough math and say, all right, there's six multiple turns of concern here. Yeah, right.
Tim Seymour
But if forced to divest, isn't this getting you into a place where you're finally having a proper and a real moment in time to have a sum of the parts conversation about Google's valuation, where, you know, if we're doing Google, it's a holding company. I know there's a core part of it and there's a core business there, but it's a holding company. Holding companies trade cheap to the sum of the parts. If we start breaking it apart and chiseling off the pieces and spinning them out, it's going to be worth more than it is today.
Guy Adami
And I think we, you know, we speak at tech risk. To me, what is it? Maybe, maybe a 10 to 15% chance of that coming to fruition? I do A certain extent, that's what it's pricing in. So there's clearly a lot to like here. If you think Google's the next Eastman Kodak, then you sell with both hands. If you think they're going to figure it out, it's dirt cheap.
Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime, the S and P and Nasdaq both closing on records again, the S and P above 6,300, while the Nasdaq briefly topped 21,000 during the session. Our next guest believes a rally can keep going. Meghan Horneman joins us now. She's the CIO at Verdin's Capital Advisors. Megan, great to have you with us.
Meghan Horneman
Thanks. How are you?
Melissa Lee
You know, it's funny because I actually, when I read the notes, it sounded like you were maybe concerned about the tariff deadline, which you don't think will be extended. So what happens with the markets there? We're still on track to go even higher.
Meghan Horneman
I think again, longer term, still optimistic, think that we're not in a bear market here. We think this bull market could continue. But there's a lot of volatility in what we're concerned about, complacency entering the market, especially ahead of these August 1st deadlines.
Melissa Lee
So what are you doing? Because we have volatility very low, we have markets high. And you suspect that markets are in for trouble. So how are you sort of preparing for that, that patch of roughness?
Meghan Horneman
Yeah. So first of all, make sure that where you're positioned is where you want to be for the, for the longer period of time. So rebalancing may be necessary, especially after you look at such a rapid increase that we've seen since Liberation Day. So make sure that you're allocated appropriately. Look at some of the areas that are not pricing imperfection. So I think that, you know, there's a lot of talk on this call about technology. I think technology growth. Some of these sectors are pricing imperfection. They're not considering the risks that are out there. When you look at multiples high, you look at some of the, whether it's technicals, looking at overbought conditions. These are things that we think might upset the rally that we're seeing here. But we still would view any pullback in the market as a potential buying opportunity because again, long term positive. But in the near term, be very careful. This market is pricing in the perfect situation from a tariff perspective as well as the Federal Reserve perspective.
Steve Grasso
Megan, when you look at diversifying away from the U.S. there's only been a handful of times where international has outperformed The US for extended periods of time. Do you think this is one of those times right now?
Meghan Horneman
I think there's room for catch up. I mean, it's been a very long time that the US has just been completely outperforming the rest of the world. I think there is room for catch up. So if you don't have international stocks in your portfolio, I think it's always a good time to have that diversification add in. I'd warn that right now they're expensive from a valuation perspective, cheap compared to the U.S. however, the U.S. as I mentioned, especially in that large cap growth area, is expensive in our opinion. But I do think there is room for the longer period of time that there can be some catch up. They've been under love for way too long and I think you're seeing some of that rotation just begin. I think that can continue.
Guy Adami
Megan, the Fed risk that you speak of, is that Jerome Powell getting blown out or is that the Fed not cutting rates in the way the markets are anticipating?
Meghan Horneman
Not cutting rates. We originally coming into this year thought, you know, the second half of the year would be when they would start cutting interest rates. We said September. That was pretty much our case. But now I think there's less than a 50% chance that they can cut in September. Let's keep in mind inflation is stuck. I know that everyone talks about how good inflation is going. Yeah, of course it's gotten much better, but it's stuck here and actually not necessarily moving in the right direction. And the Fed's just not going to have enough information by the September meeting. Even if we go in and put all the tariffs back in place on August 1, that's not going to really show into inflation until whether it's October, November, maybe even December. So what? What's the rush for the Fed? They have the flexibility. The economy's not completely tanking. The labor market's okay, not great, but it's not tanking either. What is the rush? Because the White House wants lower interest rates. Every president wants lower interest rates. So we think they have the flexibility to just remain on hold, see what happens.
Tim Seymour
Megan, in terms of the market, though, as a monolith, and you've talked about the risks and we've had a conversation about the world out there. Today was a really important day, not just because the S and p went above 6,300, but the Nasdaq 100 on a relative has made a fresh relative high to the S and P for the first time since last July 10th. I think this is a very big deal for the direction of the market. Not necessarily because individual companies underneath it are the ones we're going to make a call on today, but because the market itself at this point, with I think a lot of institutional investments not fully invested, is now making a new relative high. At least the growth is part of the market. What do you think about that?
Meghan Horneman
I'd be careful of that. Growth is part of the market right now. Long term, of course, technology is going to benefit from the AI evolution that we're seeing here. But in the near term, are the valuations fully reflecting that, the upside? I think they are at this time. I think there still is room for evaluation correction. I think that as we mentioned that some of these growth areas with the high PS are just pricing in way too much expectation for Fed rate cuts. Once we see that that might be priced off the table, coinciding with the fact that we're not quite sure what's going to happen with the tariff perspective, I think you can see a bit of a valuation correction. And you mentioned that you're seeing institutional buyers, everybody jumping on this bandwagon. Is that a momentum trade as well? And we've seen what happens with momentum trades.
Melissa Lee
Megan, great to see you. Thank you. Meghan Horneman.
Meghan Horneman
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
Burdens Capital. You think we'll go higher ultimately? I mean, rough patch near term.
Steve Grasso
Yeah. And I think that seasonally the obvious is August through October is the is the rough season for the overall market. So you have October, August 1st being that tariff deadline. So maybe you see a little bit of back and fill on the, on the run that we've had. But seasonally, just be careful through that throughout that period.
Guy Adami
Megan, her points are well taken. I mean it is momentum retail. A lot of people spoke over the weekend, amount of retail driving this market now. So and just in terms of valuation alone, things have gotten a tad frothy here.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, the Japanese yen strengthening against the US dollar after the country's ruling party lost its parliamentary majority in the upper house election. That is after the party lost control of the more powerful lower house last year. Japan's prime minister vowing to stay on despite his party's defeat. And that's why the yen had that move today. But Tim, ultimately, what does this mean? You are an international investor known as the ambassador to us here on the desk.
Tim Seymour
I think less ability to push around the bond market and do yield curve control ycc, in other words, target the long end of the curve. The BOJ has been very aggressive. So in terms of policy and in terms of also though within the government the support for the, for that is something that I think the market should be wary of. And I think ultimately what does it translate to for us? It translates into higher US yields if, if JGB yields go higher. You know, this is a case where I think around the world there are similar trends going on, although this is one where there had been the kind of a support. I think this was an expected outcome, but I do think we still expect, I think this was a somewhat expected outcome but I think the uncertainty really is what's going to happen in terms of the approach to JGBS and how they're going to control that.
Melissa Lee
And what's interesting too is that the stock market is closed. So we don't really have a good read on how it's going to affect asset or how the, what the reaction is going to in asset prices in Japan yet.
Guy Adami
Yeah, I agree with that. But you know I'm, I continue to be focused, maybe unjustifiably so on the currency which again one and a half big friggin move in dollar yen is nothing to sneeze at and we're seeing him seemingly once or twice a week. And JGBs I think 10 year yields are the highest since 08. I think 30 and 45 year yields are the highest ever. Our market is not pricing any of.
Melissa Lee
That in we got a news alert here on a potential deal for rail operator csx. Morgan Brennan has got the details. Morgan.
Julia Borson
Hey Melissa. So not clear whether it's CSX or Norfolk Southern. What we do know, and this is according to a report from Semaphore that bnsf, the railroad that is owned by Warren Buffett, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, is apparently working with Goldman Sachs to explore a takeover of an east coast rival. That's according to people familiar with the matter in this report. I've reached out to bnsf, waiting to hear back, reaching out to the other railroads as well. But of course this comes on the heels of reports that Union Pacific, which is BNSF's most direct rival in the Western US is also working on its own deal to try and acquire perhaps Norfolk Southern to create what would be the first transcontinental US Railroad. So perhaps if you're seeing one look to engage in a deal, the other is also considering that possibility here as well. As we see M and A come back perhaps to the rail industry, I'll note that we do get earnings results this week from CSX and from Union Pacific. Norfolk Southern next week in the meantime, shares of Norfolk Southern are up slightly. CSX is up about 4% on this report.
Melissa Lee
All right, Morgan, thank you. Morgan Brennan. And when the report initially came out last week on UNP for nsc, it was thought that this could push Berkshire into pushing for a bid for csx, which would be expensive for Berkshire Hathaway.
Guy Adami
Yeah, without question. And it's, you should pull up a Berkshire Hathaway chart. Talk about a stock that's underperformed since April for a myriad of different reasons. However, I mean the deal, all these deals sort of make sense. I mean you think about it, Rails have been in play for quite some time. But pulp and NSC charts since Morgan led with that. I mean we're approaching levels that we last saw four years ago into earnings after having a big run. I mean this could be the news that sort of sell the news event. We might be looking at it right here.
Karen Feiderman
So right. We might. The kickoff for consolidation in a prior administration or maybe in partially in this administration. I think at some point that would have been thought of as not doable. Getting a deal, a railroad deal done in any environment is difficult. But, but maybe they all think, okay, game on.
Tim Seymour
If you look at transports more broadly, I mean this has not been, this has been awful. This has been ugly. On a relative underperformance basis, I think you're at 10 year lows. I think the bar going into 2Q for the rails is one where I think, look, they didn't have the worst case impact of tariffs. Right. So maybe there's some bit of relief here. I think some of the stocks have reflected that, but I don't know that there's anything that exciting here in terms of the real trends.
Steve Grasso
Now he who controls the Rails controls the country. That used to be the saying before we had, we had flight. But now when you look at this administration who is looking inward trying to build up manufacturing, these could be more important than they've been in December decades.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, today's biggest market movers. The headlines pushing Verizon, Pinterest and Cleveland Cliffs into the green and why one analyst says Surrepta could head to zero. But first, shares of NXP semi on the move after its latest earnings report. The details and numbers from that quarter next. Do not go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got a news alert and open Air. Julia Borson's got the details. Julia hey Melissa. SoftBank and OpenAI's $500 billion AI project called Stargate is struggling to get off the ground, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal which just posted now the Journal saying that the partnership that these two organizations created to supercharge the US's AI capabilities has been sharply scaled back and now they are aiming to build a small data center by the end of the year, likely in Ohio. We've reached out to the two companies, have not yet heard back, but it's worth noting that this partnership between OpenAI and SoftBank comes after SoftBank committed $30 billion to OpenAI earlier this year. And and remember this was all announced in a very high profile event at the White House. Back over to you Melissa. Julia thank you. Julia Borson of note to Oracle is down about 2% in the after hours session. Of course Oracle has been bid higher on this hope that it's going to be part of this massive build out, including as part of the Stargate project.
Guy Adami
So put up a long, well, longer term six month chart of Oracle. It's remarkable what it's done and it got from being reasonable, relatively reasonable valuation to it's hard to make a compelling case for it unless you believe all the hoopla going forward. So this move absolutely makes sense.
Tim Seymour
It's interesting and it's ironic because one of the reasons that I think Google looks better than it does is some of the insight we've gotten from Oracle as we've talked about multiple times in this move. Almost parabolic for Oracle, the focus on the lower margin mass market tam business versus the higher margin software stuff good and bad.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, shares of an XP Semiconductor sinking despite the company beating estimates on the top of the bottom lines. Investors cr cautious on the auto chip maker amid tariff uncertainty. CNBC's Christina parts and evil has got more on these numbers. Christina. Well like you said, NXP posted an earnings beat, guidance beat, gross margins beat and still shares are falling more than 3% after hours investors are really hoping for a stronger rebound but Q2 sales dropped 6% and then the midpoint of its Q3 outlook was 3.15 billion and that's still below last year's levels. Capex and free cash flow also came in slightly lower than estimated. Makes analog chips and gets more than half of its revenue from the auto market, a segment really feeling the pressure from President Donald Trump's tariff push. Those trade uncertainties have hit customer orders and weighed on the stock which is up just what, 5% this year to date as of right now compared to a 20% gain for the SMH ETF. The earnings call will be tomorrow though for more details on just what's really hurting this stock. Yeah Christina, thank you Christina Parts nebulous. I mean some of the areas that are hurting like auto at the that's sort of expected. We've heard that from other chip makers here. So I don't know if it's entirely but the hopes that's that's important. If it's not matching what people thought.
Tim Seymour
This guy didn't sound so bad. But there's no question Internet of things and mobile were kind of bright spots here. And should anyone have expected auto to be a bright spot? I don't think so. So I'm a little surprised by this reaction.
Guy Adami
Yeah, I mean this is all chips are not created equal. Well here's a great example. I mean revenue is down 6% year over year. Net income down 32% year over year. Some of their businesses down 6 to 10% year over year. The move makes sense. And if you look at it in the context of where it is and where it's been, it absolutely makes sense.
Steve Grasso
56% comes from autos, 18% Internet of things, 11% comes from mobile. So it's not enough to counteract whatever weakness is perceived in the auto industry.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a number of big moves in today's session. Verizon, Cleveland, Cliff getting an earnings boost. Pinterest feeling some Wall street love and start up to share sink again. The details on all that action ahead. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ marketsite in Times Square. Back right after this.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. A strong signal for Horizon to signal for percent after one of your bottom line estimates. The wireless provider also raising yearly Guidance reported nearly 300,000 net additions in broadband. The stock is up a little over 6% percent this year. Often considered defensive play though of course.
Guy Adami
Tim's talked about this. He's been right. I don't know if he can get a V in his band, but if he were able to get one band.
Melissa Lee
Could be a one could be and.
Guy Adami
There would be Verizon over. But with that said, I mean look at it in the context of what T Mobile has done. Look at in the context of where it was historically. I mean this is just sort of a blip on the radar screen. Not to suggest you can't get some momentum here, but T Mobile I think is still the best player in the space.
Steve Grasso
The CEO pointed out the fact that from the total depreciation clause in the big Bill that they got an extra 1 1/2 to 2 billion in free cash flow. How many other companies are we going to see this from? So I think this is a big tailwind for earnings. Not specifically, but this one's great.
Karen Feiderman
That is really an excellent point. I mean Verizon, I don't really have much of a thought on that. Good call by you though. You liked it for a while. But that is a very big point that I think we'll start to see. And it's real. It's going to add up I think.
Tim Seymour
For the medium to long term investor in a company that has been typically a medium to or a long term holding in a lot of portfolios out there. The good news here is that free cash flow continues to get Better and the margin in the business. In an industry that's had a lot of very predatory pricing and in other words a very competitive environment, it's been better. Paying down debt for these guys has been a big story. And you know I do like this one. Long term there's nothing sexy here. It's probably neutral to higher.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, Pinterest shares rising after an upgrade from Morgan Stanley analysts saying the company's AI investments are starting to pay off. That multiple products have the potential for improving growth. The firm upping its rating on pins to overweight from equal weight raising the price target to 45. That's about 18% upside from today's close. Guys, the only person on this desk I believe and it's a Pinterest page.
Tim Seymour
Who could compete with them.
Guy Adami
But your page does not rival my page. As a matter of fact you have your honest person on my page. That's old school fireman.
Tim Seymour
When did you have that haircut guy?
Guy Adami
Late 80s. Tim. I'm thinking going back to it, there's.
Melissa Lee
A beautiful page, 10 headshots.
Guy Adami
Well, how do you treat Hawaiian Tropic anyway? This, if Carter Braxton Wirth were on the desk he would say this is a classic bearish to bullish reversal and he would be right. I think there was an activist in the name a couple of years ago. I think that probably still creates some tailwinds. You get it to 45 which is what the analysts think earnings and that's the level we saw I think at the high of 24. I think it's going there.
Karen Feiderman
I mean it's great. You know talk about user growth monetization still I just like meta better, cheaper. I'd rather be in Metta.
Tim Seymour
If you look at this Morgan Stanley note, it really is about monetization and some of the trends here that, that you on some level have been kind of waiting for with Pinterest. And I think it's not expensive. I think you could probably stay there.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I mean I'm just going to go technical on this. I'm going to leave the actual, the actual the company to Guy. If you do cross over to guys 45 level you got to go back to the February level of $40. Anything above that you have, you break that declining trend line that was established basically back in January of 24.
Tim Seymour
Guy, how often are you updating your Pinterest?
Guy Adami
As often as I possibly can. You know it's a full time job. I mean 10 years ago. As I said, it's often as I.
Melissa Lee
Get around to it. Yeah.
Tim Seymour
I think you owe it to people.
Guy Adami
You know what, Tim? You're right. I do. I owe it to people.
Tim Seymour
It's selfish.
Guy Adami
It is selfish to keep all your.
Melissa Lee
Classic rock and style to yourself.
Guy Adami
But I'm not going to. But I'm not going to take you off the page.
Melissa Lee
No. But you can update my photo.
Guy Adami
That's fair.
Karen Feiderman
Wait, do you know how to do that?
Guy Adami
No, of course not.
Karen Feiderman
Okay. That's the thing. Can I just add one thing? Pinterest is actually cheaper on a PE basis. I just want to point that out. Than men. I said it was.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Seraphis slide continues. The drug maker shares trading at nine year lows as it rebuffs a request from the fda. The details on its gene therapy drug and how much lower the stock could go. The details when fast money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks Mixed. To start the week, the NASDAQ and S and P both closing at record highs again today while the Dow dropped a few points. Points. Tesla erasing early gains and ending the day in the red. CEO Elon Musk posting on X that he is back to working seven days a week at the company and sleeping at the office. Tesla results due out after the bell on Wednesday. Shares of NP Materials down more than 6%. The Pentagon backed rare earth miner cooling off after a massive run over the past few months up more than 200% in that time. Cybersecurity from Sentinel 1 surging nearly 10% today and reports Palo Alto could be eyeing a takeover of the company. But Palo Alto telling CEO there is no truth to the rumor. And some more after hours movers. Zions Bancorp beating earnings estimates on the latest quarter. Steel Dynamics lower after missing estimates on the top and the bottom lines. We've got a news alert here and a House vote that could impact the investment community. Emily Wilkins has got the details here. Emily?
Julia Borson
Hey, Melissa. Well, the House just passed legislation that would expand who is able to invest in private equity securities. The legislation would allow the accredited investors to be anyone who meets the current criteria, but also anyone who passes a test that would be created by the SEC to allow individuals to show their knowledge on securities and investments and the risks they would take. You know, this measure it actually passed via voice vote, which means it has very strong bipartisan support, both Republicans and Democrats sponsoring the measure. It would now head to the Senate and will of course keep a close eye on what its path might be there. Melissa.
Melissa Lee
So again, Emily, just the SEC is going to create this test and grade it.
Julia Borson
Apparently that would be under what the law says is that they would want basically just a test for investors to show that they have that knowledge base so they could take on potentially some of these riskier investments.
Melissa Lee
Okay, Emily. Thank you. Emily Wilkins. So now you can take a test.
Tim Seymour
Well, it's, it is groundbreaking. If it's not a financial net worth calculation. I mean, accredited is everything to do with how much money do you have? How much money do you have to lose? What's your liquid? So if this is about. No, you just understand what you're investing in and we don't care how much money you have. That's, that's fascinating.
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
Tim Seymour
I'm not sure it's good or bad, but it's, it's, it's significant change for sure.
Guy Adami
Again. But. Yeah, in our world, I don't know what it necessarily means. I think Tim's right. I don't know if it's good or bad.
Melissa Lee
All right, well, Surrepta sliding again today and down almost 40% in the last two sessions after reporting a third death linked to its gene therapy portfolio. HC Wainwright analysts cutting their price target to $0 today. $0, saying they expect Surrepta's Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug to be taken off the market, leaving no intrinsic value in the stock. Mitchell Kapoor is behind the call. He's a senior biotech analyst at H.C. wainwright. He joins us now. Mitchell, great to have you with us.
Mitchell Kapoor
Thank you, Melissa.
Melissa Lee
When you say there's zero intrinsic value to the company, does that mean that the gene therapy that elevidis is based on is worthless? At this point? There is no hope for that platform. Because the last death is a related gene therapy but not associated with that specific drug.
Mitchell Kapoor
That's correct. All of these gene therapies use the same vector. And so we see the read through from that death to the Alebdis franchise. And so the FDA after that third death has asked Sarapta to voluntarily remove levitis from the market. And so conceivably after this quarter, we could see no revenue coming in from that, that stream of the pipeline.
Melissa Lee
And financially they've got a lot coming at them in terms of they don't have enough cash on their balance sheet effectively now to pay off the debt that is due in a couple of years. Is that correct?
Mitchell Kapoor
So they have a revolver of about 600 million. But you know, when you start talking about just scraping by in biotech, you're really not in a good position. So that's kind of the they are financially in.
Karen Feiderman
Mitchell, it's Karen. Thanks for Being on. So it's interesting report. How do you think it actually plays out? They're aware of their financial peril. What do you think happens?
Mitchell Kapoor
Yeah, so right now a lot of questions are coming in about, you know, is this actually going to be pulled or is the voluntary request just, you know, just that. And basically Surrepta could keep marketing this drug. The way we see it is the voluntary request is not unusual and it's typically reflective of a courtesy that the FDA extends to drug sponsors. And so we expect that the voluntary request would change into a demand in the near term. And you could see that because Marty Makari is looking to make an example out of drugs that are not safe at this juncture. He's the head of the FDA at this point. And so, you know, we're expecting that to change into a demand. You know, this drug was a drug with questionable efficacy with a fine safety profile before and now you still have that questionable efficacy but now with the risk of death.
Steve Grasso
Mitchell, when you see the average investor or the investor is not a biotech analyst, there's no way for them to avoid being invested in a name like this. How, what's your advice to retail investors and even institutions that are not biotech specific focused? How do you avoid being involved in this other than just buying an ETF and XPI or an ibb?
Mitchell Kapoor
Yeah, I mean I would definitely, I would, I would caution investors against these names that are single product companies where you don't fully understand the science. I would say that, you know, if there's a lot of risk of safety that is paramount in this industry. So you know, if you can get past the safety threshold, showing some kind of efficacy is where you get a drug to be utilized. And you know, if you don't understand those dynamics, I think investors should definitely stick to something like the XBI if they want to get into this space.
Guy Adami
Well, you've been ahead of this. In the middle of June you cut it to sell Surrepta 110 to $40 a month ago with that $40 price target at the time. What were you seeing then? It's fundamentally changed now other than what you just discussed.
Mitchell Kapoor
Yeah, so that's really it. I mean I think there's three points here is that there's no near term. The overarching theme is there's no near term revenue drivers to fill the gap. So the three points here are the fact that Elevatus is potentially coming off the market, the non elevidus revenue is declining. Management has guided to that decline year over year. And we expect that.
Melissa Lee
We're obviously having some problems with Mitchell Kapoor shot. But a very interesting call celebrating $0, which you really don't see too often here. But the main point here is that there's no revenue coming in. If this is becoming, if this will become not a voluntary halt but an ordered halt from the fda, then there is nothing coming in. And so what does this company do in the meantime?
Karen Feiderman
Well, two things. Even if it doesn't, even if it's still voluntary, how, what is the effect on sales? Right, right.
Melissa Lee
Like who's going to take this knowing that three people died?
Karen Feiderman
So one thing I was looking at, you know, when you think about bankruptcy looking they do have this big debt tranche outstanding. It comes due in 27. And that has really started to get hit. It doesn't at the moment yet reflect bankruptcy. You can see that big leg down. I think it was Friday. But I feel like, you know, debt markets are always much smarter than equity markets. Is telling you what basically what Mitchell.
Guy Adami
Saying, you know, I thought bottomed out a couple of weeks ago. I said it on the show at $20. I said, you know, all the bad news is price. And that was clearly wrong. Now you're trading at levels I think you haven't seen since early 2015, which is irrelevant if it's a $0 price target so bad on me.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a steel surge for Cleveland Cliff shares jumping on the back of earnings. What is fueling this rally and what the CEO had to say about the results? More fast money right after this.
Steve Grasso
President Trump is creating the foundation for a rebirth of manufacturing, particularly automotive in this country. We have eight finishing facilities ready to go. We are ready for the surge that we're going to have in automotive and that's right now. Not in two years, not in three years, not in five years.
Guy Adami
It's right now.
Melissa Lee
That was the CEO of Cleveland Cliff speaking to with our own Jim Cramery. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. That stock surging 12% today on record steel shipments in Q2, strong cost cutting guidance. The company also also expecting continued boosts thanks to the president's domestic manufacturing push. There's a side effect from all of this on Shoring Talk.
Steve Grasso
Yeah. And this has been in a declining trend line for, for years and years now. And I would say that this is not over this. The damage that was done to these names was, was terrible. And now with the tariff policy and the Trump policy, these are all huge tailwinds for this whole sector. And I believe there's a tremendous upside side ahead.
Tim Seymour
I like industrial metals. I like miners. I like integrated miners here. And we also had a fresh all time high on copper close today. So I think the folks that are mining the stuff that makes the steel and the specialty metals, including the iron ore, but a Rio Tinto and a BHP in addition to a Freeport and a Southern Copper, I think are all buys here.
Guy Adami
Gold miners, GDX up against Probably, I know 13, 14 year high. I think it's going there, there and I think that high in the mid-60s is absolutely reachable. Even Newmont Mining. Getting off the mat here, moms.
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, off Target. The retailer has been staging something of a comeback in recent months. But not everyone thinks the momentum can last that call when fast money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. A call on two retail names today. Barclays upgrading Dollar Tree to overweight from equal weight, betting more consumers will trade down due to tariffs. The firm also hiking its price target by $26 to $120 a share. Analysts also cutting their rating on Target to underweight from equal weight, saying without a change in strategy, sales may continue to underperform. The price target remains $91, which implies 10% downside upside from today's close. I think they said major strategy shift.
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, I don't think we've seen one. I mean, so Target is cheap. I'll give it that. It should be cheap though. They've had a lot of missteps. They've had, you know, they are positioned poorly relative to Wal Mart in that. Right. You have Walmart now doing a very good job on general merchandise, which would be where Target really needs to make their money. That's much higher margin. So I'm going to continue to hold Wal Mart even though it's much more expensive. Rather I'd rather I self rathered Wal Mart than Target.
Melissa Lee
How long does Brian Cornell stick around?
Guy Adami
Apparently seems bulletproof. But you know, what point is it on him? I mean this is since this is going on four years now of market underperformance and missing inventories a handful of times the wrong way. And at a certain point, as Shakespeare said, uneasy lies the head.
Tim Seymour
Oh boy, wears the crown.
Karen Feiderman
Nice. You like what I thought his contract is coming due soon and that would be a natural time for a change.
Tim Seymour
The story in Dollar Tree is remarkable and it's a parade of upgrades. If you look at this, it's not just, it's not just Barclays. I mean, Morgan Stanley's in there. There's a Handful of others. And the story is that first of all the format which looked extinct. It looked when we started the deal with tariffs and China tariffs seem to be almost the cherry on the top of the extinction. But in fact it's the opposite. What we've seen is they've adjusted, they've adapted, they've raised prices. It's not a dollar anymore and it's, it's interesting and I think it's going higher.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I mean a lot of the target missteps were self inflicted early on and then you just have one after another after another and you really can't gain the momentum back. So when you say it's a soft recovery recovery, it's only recovered a handful of dollars since it's. Since its recent low. I would rather dollar tree and then you know, I have to push a little further. I'm going to go to a Costco.
Tim Seymour
Or a Wal Mart.
Steve Grasso
I'm going to go. Would you rather, would you rather, would you rather.
Melissa Lee
At least I had sector.
Tim Seymour
Thank you.
Steve Grasso
I appreciate that.
Melissa Lee
You would have gone like mp just totally possible.
Steve Grasso
Thank you. I appreciate that too.
Melissa Lee
Next, final trades. Welcome back to Fast Money. By now most have seen the viral video of Astronomer CEO Andy Byron and the company's chief people officer caught in intimate embrace at a Coldplay concert, both ducking for cover when they realized they were on camera. The video has sparked some big reaction in the prediction markets. Betters wagered more than than $7 million on cash and that CEO Andy Byron would resign from his post, which he did on Saturday. It marks one of the most traded cultural events on prediction markets in recent years. I don't know if Couch is going to have a wager on what happens to Tim Seymour and Guy Adami after that. Very awkward.
Tim Seymour
Well, see camera. What we should have shown is we, we should have just hung in there with that, with that snuggle because in fact that's what you have to do. No one would have questioned anything, Guy.
Guy Adami
Because they know the love we have for each other. So it would have just been water under the bridge. Now it's going to be front page news tomorrow and page six of the New York Post.
Melissa Lee
Mel, Final trade time. Let's go around the horn.
Karen Feiderman
Oh, thank God.
Tim Seymour
Speaking of the love and I think more than a snuggle with Rio Tinto. We talked about this. Industrial metals by integrated miners. Rio Tinto.
Melissa Lee
Karen.
Karen Feiderman
Yes. I like Uber. We haven't talked about a little while. I know the stock's done well but I still like it. I think August 6th they'll be reporting.
Steve Grasso
Steve D. Wave was trading at $7 or thereabouts in May. I'm still on it and I still believe it goes much higher.
Guy Adami
Guy Silver is being embraced by investors, Melissa, and I believe that PAS will continue its rise.
Melissa Lee
All right, thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
Meghan Horneman
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Episode: Google’s Pre-Earnings Win Streak… And Sarepta’s Dismal Outlook 7/21/25
Release Date: July 21, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami, Meghan Horneman, Mitchell Kapoor
Introduction and Episode Overview
Melissa Lee opens the episode live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square, New York City, outlining the key topics for the night. The primary focus centers on Alphabet's (Google) nine-day rally ahead of its pivotal earnings report and the concerning outlook for Sarepta Pharmaceuticals. Other significant market movers include Verizon, Cleveland Cliffs, Pinterest, and NXP Semiconductor.
Nine-Day Winning Streak:
Melissa Lee introduces Alphabet’s impressive nine-day stock rally, the longest since 2019, with shares up approximately 9% during the recent surge. The discussion centers on Alphabet’s upcoming earnings report scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, alongside reports from Tesla and IBM.
Panel Insights:
Karen Feiderman:
[02:22] "The valuation is not stretched at about 19 times. There's a lot to like, including Waymo, YouTube, and the search and cloud businesses." She emphasizes Alphabet's solid valuation and diverse business segments but raises concerns about potential regulatory challenges from the Justice Department regarding monopolistic practices in search.
Tim Seymour:
[03:52] Addresses Google's valuation relative to the market, stating, "Google's probably 1.5 to 2 turns cheap on a forward basis." He highlights positive channel checks and underappreciated assets like YouTube and Waymo, indicating a bullish perspective despite high market valuations.
Guy Adami:
[04:43] Reiterates the stock’s undervaluation, especially concerning YouTube’s dominance. He humorously references technical chart patterns to suggest a potential breakout if Alphabet surpasses its prior all-time high.
Steve Grasso:
[05:29] Expresses concern over the search business, noting the rise of alternative search engines and younger generations favoring AI-driven platforms over traditional Google searches.
Key Takeaways:
While Alphabet shows strong performance and undervaluation relative to its forward earnings, uncertainties around its search business and regulatory scrutiny pose potential risks. The panel remains optimistic but acknowledges possible headwinds.
Record Closures:
The S&P 500 closes above 6,300, and the NASDAQ briefly tops 21,000, signaling a bullish trend. Melissa Lee notes the market's resilience but highlights underlying concerns about sustainability.
Guest Opinion – Meghan Horneman:
CIO at Verdin's Capital Advisors joins to discuss market optimism amid record highs. She warns of potential volatility due to upcoming tariff deadlines and emphasizes the importance of strategic positioning and diversification.
Political Shifts:
Melissa Lee touches on Japan's recent upper house election loss and the Prime Minister's commitment to remain in office. This political instability has led to a strengthening yen against the US dollar.
Tim Seymour’s Analysis:
[17:05] Discusses the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) aggressive policies and the implications for global yields. He anticipates higher US yields if Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) continue to rise, reflecting broader global financial uncertainties.
Impact on Investors:
The yen's strength and Japan's political climate introduce complexities for international investors, particularly concerning bond markets and currency valuations.
Potential Takeover Talks:
Reports indicate that BNSF Railroad, owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, is exploring a takeover of an East Coast rival with Goldman Sachs' assistance. Concurrently, Union Pacific (UNP) is eyeing Norfolk Southern for a possible merger to create the first transcontinental US railroad.
Market Reactions:
Implications:
Consolidation in the rail industry could reshape the sector, potentially leading to more efficient operations but also raising antitrust concerns.
Earnings Report:
NXP Semiconductor beats earnings and guidance expectations with a 6% year-over-year sales drop. However, the stock falls over 3% in after-hours trading due to concerns over declining auto sector revenue, which constitutes 56% of its business.
Panel Discussion:
Conclusion:
Despite strong earnings beats, structural weaknesses in the auto segment and ongoing tariff uncertainties weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
Earnings Boost:
Verizon shares rise over 6%, driven by nearly 300,000 net additions in broadband and robust yearly guidance. The company’s CEO credits enhanced free cash flow and strategic positioning amid a competitive telecommunications landscape.
Panel Insights:
Takeaway:
Verizon’s strong earnings and strategic financial management make it an attractive defensive play amid broader market volatility.
Pinterest:
Morgan Stanley upgrades Pinterest to "Overweight" with an increased price target of $45, anticipating AI-driven growth and improved monetization strategies. The panel finds Pinterest undervalued compared to peers like Meta, citing strong user growth and innovative product launches.
Target:
Barclays downgrades Target to "Underweight" from "Equal Weight," citing ongoing strategy missteps and strong competition from Walmart and Dollar Tree. The price target remains at $91, implying a potential 10% downside.
Panel Discussion:
Conclusion:
Pinterest benefits from strategic upgrades and AI investments, positioning it for growth, whereas Target faces challenges that may hinder its performance without strategic realignment.
Gene Therapy Concerns:
Sarepta Pharmaceuticals shares plummet nearly 40% following a third gene therapy-related death. HC Wainwright analysts, led by Mitchell Kapoor, downgrade the stock to $0, predicting the removal of their Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug from the market.
Mitchell Kapoor’s Analysis:
[34:27] Explains that Sarepta’s gene therapy platform uses the same vector implicated in the deaths, leading to FDA's voluntary request to pull the drug. With declining revenue streams and insufficient cash reserves, the company faces imminent financial distress.
Panel Insights:
Takeaway:
Sarepta faces existential threats due to safety issues and financial instability, signaling a near-term collapse unless significant changes occur.
Earnings and Market Moves:
Cleveland-Cliffs shares surge over 12% following record steel shipments in Q2 and strong cost-cutting measures. The CEO credits the administration’s focus on domestic manufacturing and tariffs as key growth drivers.
Panel Discussion:
Conclusion:
Cleveland-Cliffs benefits from favorable policy shifts and robust demand in the steel industry, positioning it for continued growth amidst a recovering manufacturing sector.
Dollar Tree:
Barclays upgrades Dollar Tree to "Overweight," raising the price target to $120, driven by strategic price adjustments beyond the traditional dollar format. The shift caters to consumer trade-down trends amid tariffs.
Target:
Conversely, Barclays downgrades Target to "Underweight," citing ongoing strategy missteps and competitive pressures. The firm projects potential sales underperformance without significant strategic changes.
Panel Insights:
Takeaway:
Dollar Tree's strategic evolution garners positive analyst sentiment and stock performance, while Target’s lack of strategic change raises concerns about its future growth and competitive standing.
House Legislative Update:
The House passed legislation expanding eligibility for investing in private equity securities. The bill allows not only accredited investors but also individuals who pass an SEC-administered investment knowledge test.
Panel Discussion:
Takeaway:
The legislation democratizes access to private equity investments, potentially broadening the investor base but introducing new regulatory frameworks focused on investor education and risk awareness.
Stargate Project:
SoftBank and OpenAI face setbacks with their $500 billion AI project, Stargate, with plans scaled back to a smaller data center in Ohio. The partnership, initially buoyed by a $30 billion investment from SoftBank, struggles to meet ambitious goals.
Market Impact:
Shares of Oracle dip 2% in after-hours trading despite optimism around the Stargate project, reflecting investor skepticism about the project's viability.
Panel Insights:
Conclusion:
The Stargate project’s scaling back raises concerns about large-scale AI collaborations’ feasibility and impacts related stocks like Oracle, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty in the AI sector.
Melissa Lee wraps up the episode by recapping major market movers and upcoming earnings reports. The panel emphasizes cautious optimism amidst ongoing market volatility, regulatory changes, and sector-specific challenges.
Key Quotes:
Karen Feiderman on Alphabet’s valuation:
[02:22] "The big concern is how they will address the Justice Department's issues regarding monopoly in search."
Tim Seymour on Google’s valuation:
[03:52] "Google's probably 1.5 to 2 turns cheap on a forward basis."
Steve Grasso on Verizon’s performance:
[28:03] "This one's great."
Mitchell Kapoor on Sarepta's outlook:
[34:27] "We expect the voluntary request would change into a demand in the near term."
Closing Disclaimer:
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their own and do not reflect CNBC's views. Investments involve risks, and listeners should conduct their own research or consult financial advisors before making investment decisions.
Visit Fast Money for more information and updates.