Impact Of Currency & Energy Declines.. And Market Reality Check On China 3/5/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Summary: Impact Of Currency & Energy Declines.. And Market Reality Check On China (03/05/25)

Host and Panelists:

• Melissa Lee: Host
• Tim Seymour: Panelist
• Dan Nathan: Panelist
• Guy Adami: Panelist
• Laurie Calvert: Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC
• Kathy Lean: Managing Director of Strategy, Asset Management
• Shahzad Kazi: CEO and Managing Director, China Beige Book
• Chris Verrone: Partner and Chief Market Strategist, Certificate Partners

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1. Introduction and Market Overview

Timestamp: [01:00]
Melissa Lee opens the episode from Studio B at the NASDAQ, highlighting key market movers for the week:

• Dollar Doldrums: The US dollar has been sinking sharply, reaching lows not seen since the election.
• Energy Sector Slump: Crude oil prices have dropped for the third consecutive day, marking the energy sector’s worst week since October 2023.
• Tesla’s Struggles: Tesla's stock is under pressure due to backlash against CEO Elon Musk's political positions.
• China’s Growth Target: China has set an ambitious new growth target, but tariffs may affect its economic outlook.
• Apple’s Market Position: Apple shares are flirting with correction territory, currently more than 9% off their 52-week high.

---

2. Impact of Currency Declines

Timestamp: [02:29]
The panel delves into the factors driving the US dollar’s decline:

• Oil Prices and OPEC: "Crude oil, more importantly, the dollar is weakening commodities," explains Laurie Calvert. The increase in OPEC production and Trump's tariffs are significant contributors.
• Foreign Policy Influence: Guy Adami emphasizes that "80% of it is foreign policy," linking the dollar's weakness to geopolitical tensions, especially concerning Europe and Middle Eastern alliances.

Notable Quotes:

• Laurie Calvert: “[...] the market sold off in a meaningful way [...] it speaks to a weakening dollar, weakening commodities.”
• Guy Adami: “This is all about the euro rallying against the dollar. The Saudis siding with the US and Russia cutting out Europe—Trump’s impacting all these corners of the market.”

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3. Energy Sector Decline

Timestamp: [01:55]
Crude oil's continuous decline is scrutinized:

• Performance Metrics: Tim Seymour highlights, “Energy is now negative on the year and on pace for its worst week since October 2023.”
• Market Concerns: Laurie Calvert points out, “Market's waking up to growth concerns,” indicating that both energy prices and the US dollar's weakness are unsettling broader market stability.

---

4. European Market Performance

Timestamp: [05:32]
European markets are outperforming, particularly Germany:

• Fiscal Shifts: Gail Adami discusses Germany's shift from fiscal austerity to aggressive spending, particularly in defense and technology. “Germany’s historic announcement on $500 billion stimulus is fantastic for European stocks.”
• Fund Flows: Tim Seymour notes an uptick in Western European equity fund inflows, especially into German funds, signaling renewed investor confidence.

Notable Quotes:

• Chris Verrone: “European industrials are making new relative highs here. The European banks are really strong.”

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5. Market Commentary on Specific Stocks

Apple Inc.

Timestamp: [20:26]
Apple is on the verge of a correction:

• Stock Performance: Apple shares are more than 9% below their 52-week high, with ongoing concerns about innovation and growth.
• Expert Insight: Dan Nathan criticizes Apple’s lack of significant upgrades, stating, “Unless they have an upgrade cycle this year, that's not happening.”

Notable Quotes:

• Guy Adami: “I think Apple can outperform and be defensive... they have significant free cash flow.”

Tesla Inc.

Timestamp: [27:36]
Tesla faces significant challenges:

• Stock Decline: Tesla is down over 40% from its record high since January.
• Public Backlash: Incidents of arson and backlash against Elon Musk’s political stances in Europe are detrimental.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Nathan: “Sales are down 50% year over year in China. The fundamentals are bad.”

Other Stocks: Brown Forman, CrowdStrike, Foot Locker

Timestamp: [42:18]
Mixed performances across various sectors:

• Brown Forman: Stock is up after beating earnings but cites ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
• CrowdStrike: Dropped nearly 6.5% following disappointing guidance, retracing a 20% decline since last month.
• Foot Locker: Rose by 13% post-earnings, defying expectations of tariff pressures and consumer uncertainty.

---

6. China’s Economic Outlook

Timestamp: [31:30]
Shahzad Kazi provides insights into China’s economic strategies:

• Growth Target: China aims for a 5% growth rate, but acknowledges the limitations of stimulus measures. “They can’t stimulate the economy out of this to 5%. They can’t do it this time.”
• Tariff Impact: Kazi warns that tariffs may distort manufacturing data due to front-loading of growth, potentially leading to a downturn in the second half of the year.

Notable Quotes:

• Shahzad Kazi: “They go back and stimulate the manufacturing base, help the exporters rather than make big bold decisions on transforming their economy.”

---

7. Expert Insights and Analysis

Kathy Lean on Dollar Dynamics

Timestamp: [09:07]
Kathy Lean discusses the primary drivers behind the US dollar's movement:

• Bond Market Movements: “The greatest factor driving the dollar right now is the movements in the bond market as well as general risk appetite.”
• Risk Aversion: Predicts a potential stock market correction leading to increased risk aversion and further dollar weakness.

Notable Quotes:

• Kathy Lean: “Stocks are due for a more significant correction. That means risk aversion.”

Chris Verrone on European Charts

Timestamp: [37:24]
Chris Verrone highlights the technical bullishness in European markets:

• Cyclicality Shifting East: “Cyclicality was not being extinguished globally but simply moving east.”
• Fundamental Undervaluation: Emphasizes that European stocks offer significant value, especially in industrials and banks.

Notable Quotes:

• Chris Verrone: “There is a lot of value... cyclicality is moving from here to Europe as well.”

---

8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Timestamp: [45:35]
As the episode wraps up, panelists reiterate their key positions:

• European Outperformance: Continued bullishness on European equities, particularly industrials and banks.
• Caution on US Dollar and Energy: Ongoing concerns about the US dollar’s safe haven status and the energy sector’s recovery.
• Stock-Specific Strategies: Recommendations to consider long positions in stocks like CrowdStrike and Foot Locker at strong support levels.

Final Notable Quotes:

• Tim Seymour: “International investors do not understand what is going on. We are starting to smell the risk of a growth scare coming back into this market.”
• Guy Adami: “I don't think the dollar is even close to losing reserve currency status. It’s ridiculous to think otherwise at this point.”

---

Conclusion: The episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" on March 5, 2025, provided an in-depth analysis of the declining US dollar and energy sector, the resilient performance of European markets, and a cautious outlook on China’s economic growth amidst ongoing tariff tensions. Panelists offered diverse perspectives on the implications for global markets, individual stocks, and future economic stability, emphasizing the interconnectedness of geopolitical policies and market dynamics.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

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[Dan Nathan]

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[Guy Adami]

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[Dan Nathan]

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[Guy Adami]

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[Melissa Lee]

The heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Dollar doldrums the greenback sinking sharply this week, hitting levels not seen since the election. What is behind this pullback and what's it mean for the markets? And musk backlash has been hitting Tesla stock and its showrooms. What the CEOs political positions could mean for the company at home and abroad. Plus, China sets an ambitious new growth target, but how will tariffs play into its outlook? Apple shares flirt with correction territory and liquor maker Brown form and get spirited after earnings. I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Laurie Calvert, head of US Equity strategy at rbc. We start off with two major moves taking hold of the market this week. First up, crude oil dropping for a third straight day, hitting its lowest level since May 2023. Trump's tariffs and OPEC production increases pushing Texas tea toward its worst weekly performance in five months.

[Guy Adami]

Tea the Beverly Hillbillies.

[Melissa Lee]

Move in oil crushing the energy sector now negative on the year and on pace for its worst week since October 2023. Slowdown fears also gripping the greenback. The US dollar index falling more than a percent today, on pace for its worst week since November 2022. The euro, yuan, Mexican peso, yen, Canadian dollar all gaining steam as currency traders bet that the US Economy is in for a bumpy ris. These downward moves in both the dollar and Oil mean for the broader markets guy?

[Laurie Calvert]

I think, well, first thing you know, Jed's a millionaire.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah.

[Guy Adami]

I mean, that's great reference.

[Laurie Calvert]

I mean, unbelievable. And he's been doing it by shortening a couple of things, crude oil. But more importantly, I think the dollar. And you have a pretty good memory, I think rest of us do as well. It was August 5th that the market sold off in a meaningful way. And if you recall, the backdrop is what's going on with dollar yen. And the yen was strengthening in a meaningful way. And it all started with a CPI report in July. I only mentioned that because very quietly the yen has been strengthening right before our eyes. And we might be on sort of the precipice of another types of those event. But it speaks to a weakening dollar, weakening commodities. I think a growth concern, something that Tim's been talking about. I think the market's waking up to it.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Laurie, how do you interpret this?

[Tim Seymour]

So look, another time that we saw the dollar just absolutely slide was back in the fourth quarter of 2018. And what else happened back in the fourth quarter of 2018. Companies had started to warn investors that Trump's tariffs, China trade war was going to have an adverse impact. We saw that absolutely happen in that September conference season. And as I think back to, you know, the last week or so talking to investors, it's not just tariffs they're concerned about. It's all the disruption coming out of Washington and the ripple effects. And we're finally starting to see investors question whether or not those tariffs are, you know, not just a negotiating tactic, if they're actually going to stick around. You're starting to see, you know, glimmers of problems in the job market that investors are taking notice of. And so growth is being questioned. And I think that's pressuring both of those right now.

[Guy Adami]

I tell you, I'd say only 20% of the dollar move is tariffs and weakness. I'd say 80% of it is foreign policy. And I would link back also the weakness in oil to what's going on with the dollar. I mean, look at what happened in Germany. You have a country making a historic announcement in terms of what they're going to do in terms of raising debt and going on high growth. That rallies the euro, that rallies bond yields, obviously sells off their debt. But this is all about the euro rallying against the dollar. This is all about the Saudis siding with the US And Russia and cutting out the rest of Europe, talking about Ukraine. This is deal with the Saudis. So OPEC decides They're going to increase production. To me, this mosaic and it is, there are all these pieces, there are related and Trump's impacting, impacting all these corners of the market. And I think it's, it's not just about the, the economic data which has been weaker. I think that is part of it. I think tariffs are a big concern. But what's going on in Europe and the reaction to US Foreign policy right now has major implications for the dollar and major implications for global bond yields.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, you guys know me as like the silver lining guy, right? So, so what I would say about this dollar weakness is like, okay, US Multinationals, especially the big tech guys who have a lot of stuff overseas, maybe it's pretty good. You know, we've seen S&P 500 earnings expectations come down over the last quarter or so. It's not something we saw a whole heck of a lot in 2024. I think we came in the year with like 13% expected year over year growth and that's been ratcheted down Right. A little bit. So maybe this is the sort of thing that helps buoy, you know, some of these mega cap tech stocks that have had a tough time year to date that sor things. So again, we're almost done with the quarter and you know, we're going to get very focused on Q1 earnings really soon. So maybe that is something of a tailwind.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I'm glad that you mentioned the European investment. I mean the German investment, huge. 500 billion euro for a tight fisted fiscal austere country for so long to be. Now, you know, we're going to go pedal to the metal and we're going.

[Guy Adami]

To spend it on defense and we're going to spend it on technology around defense. And like Europe is in a scramble right now and there's no question the most important economy in Europe just went from a GDP, GDP estimate for 2025 of 8, 10 of a percent to at this rate, people are saying 2% just on today alone. Again, this is historic. We haven't seen this kind of a move in bond yields in 27 years or something like that. And again, the Germans who are known for fiscal austerity, this is a breakout. This is something that I think is actually fantastic for European stocks. Something we've been talking about now for.

[Melissa Lee]

Even at highs.

[Guy Adami]

Yes. Yeah, I mean I think this is massive, but I think it is tied to oil. And again, it's about refocusing some of the geopolitics. Whether you like it or not, it's having an impact on these major asset classes.

[Tim Seymour]

I think Tim's on to something really important regarding Europe. We saw peak bearishness on Europe back in December, early January. When I think about my meetings and my colleagues meetings with our clients there and what we're actually noticing in the funds flow data is that you are finally starting to see money go back into Western European equity funds, going back into German funds in particular. You're not seeing it in the uk you're not seeing it in France. So I think there's something specific to Germany going on. But it's, it's very, very much. I mean, we're not even in early days. We're in early minutes of that trade.

[Melissa Lee]

Early minutes of the trade.

[Tim Seymour]

It's, it's barely perceptible.

[Guy Adami]

We've had 15 years of relative underperformance of the euro, STOXX 50 to the S and P. I mean there is a lot of catch up here. There's still a lot of value at least if you look at pure valuations of where Europe's trading in the U.S.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, we're going to get to Chris Rohn in Europe later on in the show. But in terms of, I mean, if, if the world is going to, you know what, in a hand basket, no.

[Laurie Calvert]

You can say hell. There are other words you can't say. But you could say hell in a handbasket. But if you would say if you.

[Dan Nathan]

Can'T see something hitting hell in a bucket.

[Melissa Lee]

My point is the greenback is safe haven, theoretically.

[Laurie Calvert]

Well, you know what, there are a lot of people out there, a lot smarter than I am, which is not a high bar, that think that maybe that trade is sort of getting long in the tooth and sort of in the sort of the scope of a dollar being a safe haven. So there is a scenario, by the way, where the dollar continues to sort of go lower against these currencies and bond yields here in the United States start to go higher. And you saw glimpses of it today. I mean, 10 year yields were for 11 a day and a half two days ago. It's 425 now. Obviously I don't make a huge deal yet, but you start seeing the unraveling of the bond market against a weaker dollar and you're seeing something you haven't seen in a very long time.

[Tim Seymour]

I would just say on the safe haven point, I think that has been true in the past. But what I've really noticed with the international investment community in particular is there is just a failure to understand the logic of policy. And I think that calls into the question whether or not the policy that.

[Melissa Lee]

Is being pursued right now.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah. Whether it's tariffs. You know, I think there's maybe a little bit more, you know, sort of skepticism with tax and things like that that are going to happen. There was some initial excitement on Doge, and I think that's really evaporated at this point. But I think on tariffs in particular, you know, I hear people talk about game theory, and I hear them talk about the logic and the damage it's going to do to the economies and just really kind of questioning why these policies are being put into place. And I think when there's just a lack of understanding and a lack of really understanding why things are happening, that safe haven status comes under question.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. For more on where the dollar could be headed next, Asset Management's Kathy Lean joins us now. She's the Managing Director of Strategy. Kathy, great to speak with you. We've been talking about a lot of the factors pushing the dollar, the direction it's going, and I'm wondering what you think is the strongest force behind the dollar going forward.

[Kathy Lean]

Well, I think a lot of the points that were just made were very, very valid. But I think the greatest factor driving the dollar right now is really, you know, the movements in the bond market as well as general risk appetite. We've seen the VIX reach its highest level this year. I think that that's a sign of anxiety in the markets. What's really interesting is that stocks are not responding the same way because even though, you know, we're seeing high volatility, it seems like the equity traders are still cautiously optimistic that a lot of the concerns that are posed by the tariffs are not going to be as severe. I'm certainly not in that camp. I'm worried about it. And so I think it's a factor that, you know, what is driving the US Dollar right now, and it's going to continue to be a main driver of US Dollar flows.

[Melissa Lee]

So right now, this growth scare, that's the predominant force in your view, Kathy? And in your view. I mean, I know that you're partial obviously to the market, but I mean, do you believe what, what the bond market, what the FX market is telling us versus the equity market? It sounds like you're skeptical. You don't know why the equity market's doing what it's doing.

[Kathy Lean]

I do. And I think it's really hard to imagine that, you know, the warnings that we're getting from the corporate sector talking about having to Raise prices. Talking about implementing layoffs, talking about a weaker growth season is not going to manifest itself in the stock market. I think that, you know, stocks are due for a more significant correction. I think we've lost our opportunity to buy puts cheaply. I think that a lot of people are looking to buy protection these days. I think there's a lot of reasons why stocks could see a more significant correction. And for my world, in fact, that means risk aversion. So while we are seeing the euro, you know, rally significantly today, the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, many of the major currencies up against the greenback, I still think that there's a significant risk of correction in the markets that will lead to a correction in currencies.

[Laurie Calvert]

Kathy, is there a level in dollar, yen where you get concerned so much is what we saw last summer and the effect that it had on our markets here?

[Kathy Lean]

Well, I mean, last summer we did have a significant weakness, significant moves in $. Yet I think in terms of darling in itself, the bank of Japan is really watching the 140 level. I think they haven't really come in any degree size. They are also watching to see the ramifications of the tariffs, which is why they've been kind of very cagey on when the next interest rate hike will happen. So there's a lot of things at play here. But we do see momentum in Japan's economy, which should justify strength in the Japanese yen and further interest rate hikes. But the tariff is a huge uncertainty for everyone in the region, even if Japan is not targeted right now. And I think they're kind of in wait and see mode.

[Guy Adami]

Kathy, it's Tim, I guess I think this move, and my question to you, isn't this move all about dollar euro that's 60% of the Dixie? It's what we've had across Europe over the last couple of days and the news out of Germany, not only historic is the word we're using here, but, but this is a case where you've had a major reassessment. Remember, the euro was possibly overshooting to the downside around the, around the new year. So I just. Let's put this in perspective. Do you. How much of this do you think is tariffs? How much do you think of this is just all about Europe?

[Kathy Lean]

Well, today it's certainly all about Europe because today, as you said earlier, with a huge package fiscal subscribing package that was announced. So today this move is certainly about Europe. But I don't think that if we look forward, that's Just going to be about Europe. I think there's still going to be a central focus on the dollar. Yeah, this move could be erased if Trump kind of provides details on when the timing of the European Union tariffs are going to happen. So there's a lot of volatility that can happen, a lot of back and forth in the euro. I don't think that the pure stimulus package that we've gotten from Germany is the only thing that investors should be focusing on.

[Melissa Lee]

Does safe haven status save the dollar from a significant slide or does that not kick in this time?

[Kathy Lean]

That's really interesting that you say that, Melissa, because I heard the earlier segment, the lot of your other guests do not believe that the dollar is going to retain a safe haven status. I think that we're going to see, you know, a more safe haven bid in the greenback. I think, you know, we haven't seen the correction yet, but I think we will and we will be hard for those currencies to avoid selling off as well.

[Melissa Lee]

Kathy, great to speak with you. Thank you, Kathy. BK Asset Management. Tim, you. Do you feel like. I believe it.

[Guy Adami]

And I want to be clear about this. I don't think the dollar is even close to losing reserve currency status. It's not even. It's not even. Look, I understand theoretically, I understand we've disrupted a lot of strong allies and trading partners. I understand there's been an argument for years this is why Bitcoin is doing what it's doing and why I say you should buy gold. But if you're telling me that ultimately the tactical moves by the administration, whether they're right or wrong, that have greatly impacted this move in the dollar and certainly caused a lot of uncertainty, which has also impacted the dollar, is suddenly putting the dollar in question. When you look around the world, it's not even close. So I actually, I don't think we should mess around with reserve currency status and our, our credit rating and the things that I think we do talk about. But there's nothing about this move here that has me concerned that the dollar is losing. I think it's ridiculous.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, in terms of safe haven, though, like a bid for safety, not reserve currency. See.

[Guy Adami]

Okay, well, I mean, again, it's not time for safe haven. You know, we haven't seen dislocation in markets. I understand we've had volatility. We've had five days in a row. We've had intraday 2% volume. That's. It's not time for a safe.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah. And it's more like the other asset classes away from equity that have seen some pretty extreme volatility. But you know, I'll just say this. With the uncertainty about policy, I mean this is going to stick around if we keep doing this, like putting the tariffs in place, but then, you know, giving exemptions for this for a month or whatever. It's the sort of thing that you can't, if you're like the sea level suite for a lot of these companies, can't just turn it back on. Right. If you get really kind of cautious about this sort of thing and you're worried about growth and you're worried about global growth and you know, to me it just seems a bit silly. It looks like they're literally playing chicken with our economy, maybe the global economy for politics, not exactly for policy. And so it goes back to what Tim was saying about geopolitics. There's some real rifts that are becoming with our biggest allies right now. And I don't think what's different about this than 2018, it was really focused on China now. But I think some of these other, like, I think Europe is becoming emboldened a little bit.

[Guy Adami]

I think the key, without Naito, Europe has to scramble.

[Tim Seymour]

There's.

[Guy Adami]

There's a lot of different things going on. And you're right. I mean, I think, I think it's dangerous to play around with these things. I still look at the much bigger picture, which is I don't think anything can change.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Tim Seymour]

I'm not making a comment on the reserve currency issue, but what I will tell you is that international investors do not understand what is going on. And we are really starting to smell the risk of a growth scare coming back into this market. So what do I mean by that? A garden variety pullback is about 5 to 10%. Right. We're in the middle of that now. Your next tier of fear tends to be a 14 to 20% drawdown where real concerns, where people just don't understand what's going on. Think back to the S and P debt downgrade that we had. You know, back in the early days after the financial crisis, 2018, we had a 20% drawdown peak to trough. Those are areas where market participants have really questioned whether there was something systemic starting to happen or if we were really on the brink of a recession. And that's what I, you know, my base case is that we bottom out around, you know, kind of in that 5 to 10% mark. But if we go to something next and you know, frankly we're starting to see cracks in the labor market emerging in survey data. We got the ADP report today. There's a real question about growth in the US Starting to emerge. And when that happens, the US Is not your safe trade.

[Melissa Lee]

Meantime, stocks snapping a two day losing streak with a sharp midday rally. The Nasdaq leading the gains up percent and a half though all three major indices still down for the week. The move coming after President Trump said he would put off tariffs on the auto industry for one month. Car sox taking a big leg higher on that news as well. The very latest. Let's get to our Megan Casella in Washington. Megan?

[Tim Seymour]

Melissa, that sigh of relief from the automakers coming after White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters the one month exemption was at the request of the automakers in order to ensure they were not at an economic disadvantage. It comes after Trump spoke yesterday with the leaders of four GM and Stellantis. And that's the good news. But there is much more to come here on the tariff front. Cars made up a big chunk of trade with Canada and Mexico, maybe 15 or 20%. But tariffs still remain in place on everything else. Canada's foreign minister also said in the last hour that conversations are still ongoing with the US but that they are very fluid and that Canada could potentially use oil and gas exports as a lever if tariffs continue, suggesting potentially more retaliation to come there. And we also have two big dates to watch. One is next week's steel and aluminum tariffs. Those are set for March 12 and they have already been signed into law. Canada and Mexico will be deeply impacted by those, are likely to retaliate. The auto industry also going to get caught up there as well. The other date is April 2nd. Those are the reciprocal tariffs. And Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, he said today Canada and Mexico will be targeted with those and that while the reciprocal tariffs will start on the second, they could continue to trickle out over weeks or even months. So when it comes to the tariff front, guys, we may be just at the start of all of this.

[Melissa Lee]

Melissa all right, Megan, thank you. Megan casella, so reprieve for the automakers for now, inventory is pegged at 84. Four days of inventory in the United States according to Carguru. So they have a few months. Maybe if they can pull forward some production now, they can be covered for longer.

[Laurie Calvert]

A couple of things from this and we had a conversation about GM last night. We actually said, you know what, it just traded down the levels we saw in October. It's a logical place for it to stop and potentially bounce from it happened today and I think it will continue to move higher. The other thing is a broader market and it's in my opinion not coincidence. Look at where we stopped today in the S&P 5700 basically go back and look at where the S and P was on election day. 5700. Don't think for a minute that this administration doesn't have that sort of peg somewhere as sort of a benchmark as to how low they'll allow the market to go in the short term.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, I would say today's rally was not particularly impressive. You look at the S And P up 1%, you look at the weakness in banks on a relative basis. We already talked about energy. It just didn't seem that broad based. We saw some stuff. They've gotten really hit hard. Probably more for fundamental reasons. If you look at some of the mega cap tech over the last few weeks. So not a particularly impressive rally in my opinion.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. What do you make about the weakness in banks?

[Tim Seymour]

You know Century. I've been at the RBC financial conference for the last couple of days and I'll tell you the tone was, was very constructive. I mean they are acknowledging the impact that tariffs are having on dialogue. But in terms of credit things still look really good. In terms of day to day business activity, they're not really seeing any problem develop. So I came away from the last two days thinking the plumbing of the economy is pretty good. I have liked banks, I've liked financials and I've liked banks over cap markets and I'm sticking with that.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, look, the rhetoric on M and A and slowdown and deal flow, I mean that's been the big headline of the last couple of days. But the bottom line is D wrig for banks is. It is a great story right now. Watch the yield curve though. It is flat.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Coming up, souring on Apple, the tech giant briefly falling into correction territory today. What it could mean if the last Mag 7 holdout falls even further. And speaking of the Mag 7, Tesla's been in a tailspin since the inauguration. It's now more than 40% off its own record. Will global backlash to CEO Elon Musk continue to threaten the EV maker? Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

[Tim Seymour]

Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single purpose, making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail] Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?

[Dan Nathan]

Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days?

[Guy Adami]

Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted?

[Dan Nathan]

If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the PAC. Discover is accepted at 99 of places.

[Guy Adami]

That take credit cards nationwide.

[Dan Nathan]

And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn [e-mail] credit card Based on the February 2024 Nelson Report, Friday night on.

[Laurie Calvert]

An all new Dateline, you're the most.

[Guy Adami]

Hated mom in America.

[Tim Seymour]

I heard that Lori Valo Debel, also.

[Guy Adami]

Known as Mommy Doomsday. Did you watch your children die?

[Dan Nathan]

The exclusive jailhouse interview.

[Kathy Lean]

You've heard a lot of stuff, Keith.

[Laurie Calvert]

What I tell you will be the truth.

[Dan Nathan]

An all new Dateline, Friday night at 9, 8 Central only on NBC.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Apple flirting with correction territory now more than 9% off the 52 week high. It hit December 26th at its lows of the day. It had been nearly 12% below its record. The iPhone maker is currently the only stock among the so called Magnificent 7 less than 10% off highs. Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet seen the steepest corrections among the group. Now Apple had some news. They, they revealed a new iPad. Lightshot came out with a pretty damning. I don't know if you saw it, Dan. No, no.

[Dan Nathan]

Okay, can you support it to me?

[Melissa Lee]

I'll try and forward it with the email.

[Tim Seymour]

Right.

[Melissa Lee]

Using the email or carrier pigeon, basically. Can it, can it innovate before it gets disruptive, disrupted?

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah.

[Melissa Lee]

Saying that they're not innovating enough at this point.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, no doubt. I mean this is something that we were all pretty skeptical last June when they announced this Apple intelligence. You know, it really didn't do what a lot of analysts or investors thought it was going to do, which is cause an upgrade cycle for the hardware.

[Melissa Lee]

Right.

[Dan Nathan]

If they're not upgrading hardware that has these new chips that are going to power these kind of AI apps in the future, then, you know, I mean, it's just they're going to get left behind. Now one of the reasons why it might have been outperforming on a relative basis is if you look at Q4 earnings and we heard the Capex by Amazon, by Google, by Microsoft, by Metta, when you had decelerating revenue growth and higher than expected Capex investors kind of punished them. Well, Apple's not doing that right now. They're not building out data centers or at least not now. They talked about that, you know, $500 million investment that they're going to make going forward. So to me I think Apple is not particularly interesting here. Expectations for high single digit earnings growth, mid single single digits sales growth. Unless they have an upgrade cycle this year. That's not happening.

[Melissa Lee]

It's only a few more months of the anniversary of the WWDC where the air enthusiasm was completely ignited.

[Laurie Calvert]

Stock was 193. That thing was 6-10-193. It closed that day, went sort of nowhere in the aftermarket. A month and a half, two months later was trading in the mid to twenties, was off to the races. So I was not overwhelmed by that. Gene Munster came on the show that day and said it was transformative. He was right. But there's a universe where we could round trip the entire thing and again, evaluation a concern in today's market. Apple shouldn't be more expensive in my opinion than a Facebook or even a Microsoft which is actually now below valuation of Apple.

[Guy Adami]

I mean I disagree just because I think we haven't seen Apple be the beneficiary of some of the fluff that these other companies have. And I understand the dynamic around the top line. That's, that's under some pressure. I don't know why we aren't going to continue to have a repressed cycle. I mean that's just like what happens with or without AI. So I look at the stock, I actually think Apple versus the market. And you didn't ask me this Melissa, but I think Apple can outperform and be defensive. Like a lot of these lower volume stocks that are buying back stock and that actually have significant free cash flow.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, but Tim, in a market or an environment that set us up, no, if we have a slowing economy like this is not, this is discretionary sort of device. Right. And one of the narratives into the fall was that there's 3,400 million iPhones that are more than three or four years old that need to be refreshed. Well, they didn't get refreshed. Right. If you look at iPhones are not growing, you know, year over year. So unless they have a reason or they're giving you a reason to upgrade this year, I think look at you're like iPhone 10 or something like that.

[Laurie Calvert]

So I don't understand the problem. And what in this thing I had.

[Melissa Lee]

That's a new one though.

[Guy Adami]

But this breaks every three like the back of my phone cracks into thousands.

[Melissa Lee]

Of these every three years.

[Guy Adami]

Look at this. I mean, despite its titanium.

[Dan Nathan]

But you know what, whatever.

[Laurie Calvert]

You wonder why when you drop it.

[Melissa Lee]

How you handle it.

[Guy Adami]

All right, well, look, I'm a little rough on things.

[Dan Nathan]

One of the easiest calls in the market, if you're like a, like a pundit like us, is every time you see these folks come over, say it's going to be upgrade, super cycle, fade it. I mean, like, come on.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I just think there's macro here, right? I mean, I don't think it's any of these names that we pick out in particular, but when you have money rotating from us back to Europe, the Mag 7 are going to get hit. I mean, that's all they want to talk about when I go over to Europe. That and health care and consumer stocks and growth gets hit when you move back to Europe.

[Laurie Calvert]

Why was there no flag on the self? Would you rather the tim pulled off a few minutes ago?

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, I didn't like it. It's going to write it down.

[Guy Adami]

I did it respectfully.

[Laurie Calvert]

No, that's makes it okay. Well, I ran that red light respectfully.

[Guy Adami]

She thought it was clever.

[Laurie Calvert]

Makes it okay.

[Melissa Lee]

I thought it was an okay one. I will make an annotation in my notebook where I keep all.

[Laurie Calvert]

You might notice that I don't do that. Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

Anyway, there is a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Dan Nathan]

Tesla flashing its hazard lights as global backlash over CEO Elon Musk grows. How people are protesting his recent political stances, plus a market reality check. The warning from one China expert.

[Guy Adami]

Amid escalating tariff tensions, the latest in the trade war and how Beijing could respond.

[Dan Nathan]

You're watching Fast Money live from the.

[Guy Adami]

NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

[Tim Seymour]

Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single purpose. Making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail] Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?

[Dan Nathan]

Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days?

[Guy Adami]

Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted?

[Dan Nathan]

If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places.

[Guy Adami]

That take credit cards nationwide.

[Dan Nathan]

And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover.

[Guy Adami]

Learn more at discover.com/credit card.

[Dan Nathan]

Based on the February 2024 Nelson Report.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Tesla getting a more than 2% pop today. But public backlash against CEO Elon Musk's political positions weighing on shares so far this year, the stock has shed more than a third of its value since President Trump took office in January. Two incidents of suspected arson involving Tesla just this year week, a dozen vehicles at a dealership in France set ablaze while seven charging stations were torched in a Boston suburb early Monday morning. So with its CEO seemingly preoccupied with making waves in Washington, just how big is Tesla's Musk problem? It's really, you know, in Europe, which is a huge market obviously for Tesla is siding with the far right, which is really causing issues in terms of the backlash there.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, we're seeing it immediately. I mean, sales are down 50% year over year. China's sales were down 50% year over year. And you know, listen, as the silver lining guy, I really can't find one here. If you think about who are you?

[Guy Adami]

The silver.

[Melissa Lee]

I like how he tries to rebrand himself.

[Guy Adami]

I think that's sarcasm, but no, it's not.

[Dan Nathan]

But you know, if you think about sales last year, excuse me, deliveries were basically flat to down a little bit year over year. That was one of the first years. So this year it's actually expected to be down a lot. If you look at just where Q1 is tracking right now, I think consensus is calling for 420,000. I think there's independent analysis guy Troy test like has 370. And it might be downward pressure here. We really don't know what the bottom is given this kind of backlash. So to me, the fundamentals are bad. Not only that we're in a price war. They are losing market share in some of these key markets like China right now.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, they've had to offer $1,000 subsidies for insurance on model threes in China. They're also in the middle of a Model Y refresh, the top selling vehicle. So they're not really producing them as they turn over to a new model of model. Yeah, so that's also causing some headwinds.

[Laurie Calvert]

For the number I think was a week ago that Adam Jonas and Morgan Stanley put a $600 price target on the stock. So they're obviously differing opinions as to where this can go. I mean, I will say when they reported their quarter, when the Stock closed around 390 or so, that quarter to me suggested it should be in the low three twenties. And it went higher on the back of that, I think it traded up to 415. Now fundamentals are starting to kick in. If you go back on a chart, July's high was about 250. That's the level where it should hold and I happen to think it's headed there.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, a reality check on China, why one expert warns markets haven't fully digested geopolitical risks and how he sees the tariff trade war playing out for Beijing. Fast Money's back into.

[Dan Nathan]

Missed a moment of fast.

[Guy Adami]

Catch us anytime on the go follow.

[Dan Nathan]

The Fast Money podcast.

[Guy Adami]

We're back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast money. Stocks rebounding after two days of sharp losses as some tariff relief came for automakers. The dow jumping nearly 500 points, the S&P up more than a percent and the Nasdaq leading the gains up nearly 1 1/2 percent. Shares of Novo Nordisk jumping, the pharma company saying it will offer its blockbuster weight loss drug Wegovy through a new direct to consumer online pharmacy available to millions of patients without insurance coverage and for less than half the price of its usual monthly cost. And some after hours action to tell you about Marvell Technology dropping despite a beat on the top and the bottom line estimates guidance coming in in line with expectations. Mongodb lower as well despite beating revenue estimates non gross margins coming in a bit lighter than expected. The company also posting slower sales growth and competitors Snowflake and Zscaler higher after reporting EPS and revenues above expectations. Well, China targeting economic growth around 5% this year despite growing trade tensions with the U.S. the estimate coming out of the National People's Congress, the yearly event that is underway in China. Beijing also laying out potential stimulus measures that helping shares of names like Alibaba, JD Pinduoduo and Baidu rally today. But our next guest is still cautious, warning the market needs a reality check on geopolitical risks. Shahzad Kazi is China Beige Books CEO and Managing Director. Shahzad, great to have you with us. They can't stimulate the economy out of this to 5%. They can't do it this time.

[Shahzad Kazi]

Well, so right now you're not getting much in the way of big stimulus announcements and I understand part of it right. Our data showed you had a pretty decent January. You had acceleration into February. So maybe the pressure to announce something big is not there right now. However, they've said they want to now make consumer spending the growth drivers the number one priority. Well then how about you highlight something and how you're going to stimulate households. They did basically nothing on that front.

[Melissa Lee]

In terms of tariffs, do you think we'll see a lot of pull forward? I mean, that will probably distort the numbers that we get out of China for the time, for the near term at least.

[Shahzad Kazi]

I think that's what's going on. So you had a pretty good manufacturing data data point that came out in February, for example, including a jump in export orders. And that is the pulling forward of growth because you've got that front loading effect still in place, which means down the road, a few months down the road, second half of this year, that sets up a potentially sour picture for the manufacturing sector, specifically.

[Guy Adami]

Shah, help us understand kind of the, the, the game theory in China because historically, look, China's historically been more controlled, concerned about social control and dynamics sometimes than they have been about their economy. In a world where they're at trade war with the United States, what's more important to be tactically agile and to actually be able to respond in a trade war or actually think about their own economy. Are they, are they just reacting right now or do you think they're actually playing offense on their own agenda?

[Shahzad Kazi]

So their capacity to play offense is pretty limited just because of the fact that we import so much more and they import very little. So they can't do much, you know, so you get a lot of tough talk out of them, but, you know, not much in terms of action. Their other side, of course, is what do you do to help the economy? My guess is that they go back and stimulate the manufacturing base. They go back and stimulate our, help the exporters rather than being able to make the big bold decisions on transforming their economy, which is what they really need.

[Laurie Calvert]

Social. We could be seeing a scenario there where the economy is what it is. You're concerned about it. But the stocks that make up the fx, I mean, it's a three year high now in the fxi. And I think Tim would agree with this. I think it's just getting started. I mean, are we in that sort of paradigm shift right now?

[Shahzad Kazi]

You could be, because look, they want to have technological independence from the US and they want technological dominance, right? So that could power a lot of these companies. That's where the geopolitical risk comes in. If you have an administration gets very serious about outbound investment restrictions, that's obviously a concern. Export controls get amped up, that's obviously a concern. So that's where I think we have to monitor US Policy and not just where Beijing is going, which of course they are using the private firms to strengthen the State, which temporarily should be very positive for stocks.

[Dan Nathan]

What does a deal between Xi and Trump look like? He talks about it, he's optimistic about eventually doing a deal with. This is eight years now, you know, where we've had this level of hostility. What does the deal look like?

[Shahzad Kazi]

Look, I don't know if there's a big deal to be had this time around, especially given the big failure the phase one deal was. So you know, perhaps you can get China to agree to start buying more if you want to just reduce those numbers. But if you have a desire to move supply chains out of China, if you have a desire to cut them off from high end technology, access to high end technology, I don't foresee there being a deal reached anytime soon. And let's talk about Fentanyl. What promises can they possibly make and deliver? They've been promising for years, but it's not led too much. If you hold them to the same standard we're holding Canada and Mexico, a deal seems even farther out of reach.

[Tim Seymour]

I'm just curious about your comments on frontloading because we, you know, investors in the US have been asking companies about this and not getting a lot of information. So how big do you think this front loading's been? How, how long has it been going on in any particular industries that jump out?

[Shahzad Kazi]

It's certainly been happening since, you know, the second half of last year. So the idea, you know, as President Trump's election chances look better. We saw it start and of course it's kicked off in high gear since then. The question is, is it about to get tapered off? Are we, are we done now? Obviously tariffs are in place.

[Melissa Lee]

Shazad. Thank you. That Kazi of China Beige book guy. What do you think in terms of the stocks?

[Laurie Calvert]

I think they go higher. I mean we've, I think we've been pretty consistent on this one. The big move in Baba, you had a pullback. I thought it get to 118. It didn't get to mid-120s. It's back on its source affects is it just said three year highs. I mean I think people underestimate some of the torque behind this now. And regardless of economy, I think all these stocks are significantly higher.

[Melissa Lee]

B and tube as I recall.

[Laurie Calvert]

It is the B and tube as it turns out. You know it's funny you say that Melissa because I was debating should it be Boeing or. That was right now though I chose wisely.

[Guy Adami]

Well because. Because you knew that Boeing was the B in band or blend depending on which, which day it is the Kate Webb at 39 is the October 2024 high. And I think you're taking it out. Remember, Bob has outperformed the rest of that group but I love the, the setup that she's basically put around a lot of those other tech companies. And if you think that Europe is going to outperform the E M or emerging markets will do a beta of one point something to that. In other words, emerging markets will outperform even more if the dollar has peaked in rates have peaked and we're pushing things lower. It's a great backdrop even without the global scare.

[Melissa Lee]

Are investors willing to buy China?

[Tim Seymour]

You know, in my world, my meetings and again I tend to talk more to longer term investors but it tends to be viewed as a trade for the hedge funds as opposed to something that longer term investors really want to sink their teeth into. And unlike Europe where we are starting to see real money go back to work. You know, when I look at the funds flow data for China, it's, it's still pretty negative.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, tariffs may be top of mind for global markets, but our next guest is still bowled up on Europe. What Chris Verrone is seeing in the charts and the ETFs he's leaning into plus Brown, Forman, Crowdstrike and Footlocker, all with big post earnings moves in today's session. How are traders are handling the action when Fast Money returns? Welcome back to Fast Money. European markets are off to the races this year. ETFs tracking those stocks hitting multi year highs or records. Our next guest has been bullish on this overseas play since last fall. For the technical take on Europe, let's go off the charts of course. Veronica, certificate partner and chief market strategist. Chris, what do you see in the charts that keeps you so bullish?

[Chris Verrone]

Well, one of our big calls this year has been this idea that cyclicality was not being extinguished globally but simply it was moving east. And we know, we just talked about China, but now we see it here in Europe as well. These European industrials in particular are making new relative highs here. The European banks as we know have been part of the story, not just for a couple months, but frankly for 18 months. And when you look at the fund flows, what I think is particularly notable is no one's there yet. And you know one thing that we've always said in our work and we steal this from the great Marty's wig. He used to always talk about how you can be philosophically bullish or actually bullish with real dollars. I Think people are philosophically open to the idea of being long in Europe, but they're not there with real money. And when you go chart by chart by chart, EWG, the German ETF finally after 20 years making a new high this week. These were long periods of just secular stagnation where you've now seen these markets break out, in particular the industrials, the banks are really strong on the other side what you don't see is energy working. You don't see basic resources in the fold here. So to say that what's happening around the world is particularly inflationary, you're not getting it from the messaging of the leadership. Energy doesn't work, materials doesn't work. This is about industrials, this is about banks, this is about financials broadly.

[Melissa Lee]

When you say investors are just not there yet and they're underweight relative to other areas, where are they over where? Maybe this is too abstract of a question, but where are they relatively overweight compared to Europe? Because where does that money come from?

[Chris Verrone]

Yeah, I think that money has to come from where it's gone for the last 12 or 13 years, which is max evidence. One of the things, just kind of putting this into the macro discussion. One of the things that we find really notable is US large cap tech peaked relative to the s&p July 10. What else happened July 10? Dollar yen peaked exact same day. Yen has driven this yen carry for 13 years guy has driven this entire thing. I mean all these yen pairs are back on the August low. Really, really important shift there.

[Laurie Calvert]

We talked about that. There's a Thursday a CPI day and by the way, you know, I think Tim one of these days Siemens was.

[Guy Adami]

His final two nights ago Guy, why.

[Laurie Calvert]

Are you yelling at me?

[Guy Adami]

Why you didn't need some.

[Laurie Calvert]

I knew it was this week, I apologize. Today's Wednesday and anyway that's one of the biggest components of the G. So I'm with and if you look, I mean to your point we just broke through a huge double top and you know, it looks like it's off to the races now.

[Chris Verrone]

And what's so striking about all this is when you look at the move we've seen in Euro US Day Euro's gone from 105 to 108 here pretty quickly. Look at the sentiment data on Euro there is no length from the long. If you look at the, the surveys people are still very, very bearish Euro I think there's a big opportunity here not just to be long European equities certainly by any pullbacks I recognize they've they've moved a lot the last several days, but the currency here is really, really powerful.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. And you've been seeing this in your, in your meetings. Yeah.

[Tim Seymour]

And look, I think we really observed peak bearishness. I was in Europe in December and I couldn't, I didn't have a single person an entire week who was making the case for Europe over the US and usually I get a few people who want to beat me up on that. You know, I'd be curious though, Chris, did you notice, you know, do you have any thoughts on sort of countries like Germany versus France, UK Because I've noticed the German flows are improving and Western European equity flows are improving, but you're not really seeing the same kind of follow through with France or the uk.

[Chris Verrone]

Well, it's funny is the peripheral has been the leader here the whole time. Right. It's been Germany, that's been the laggard market, the Spain market absolutely on fire. I think the point you make on sentiment really resonates with me. It was maybe the first or second week of January. I was listening to Christine Lagarde speak at Davos and she described herself as peak pessimistic on Europe. This is the European central banker describing herself as pessimistic. I want to be long all the stocks when the central banker is bearish because it tells you you have a very accommodative central bank there. And you know that that was against the backdrop of kind of all the data starting to improve. If you look at the economic surprise index in Europe, it looks very different than ours here. So I don't think cyclicality is extinguished globally. It moved from here and it moved east. We see it in China, we see it in Europe as well.

[Melissa Lee]

Chris, thanks. Good to see Chris. Verna Strategic is coming up. Some fast movers from today's session catching our attention. How our traders are handling the moves in Brown form and crowdstrike and Foot Locker. That is next. And here, here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of Hasbro. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More fast money into.

[Guy Adami]

Southern Galaxy.

[Melissa Lee]

We are obviously we talked during the breaks. Anyway. Welcome back to Fast Money. A couple of fast movers catching your eye today. Let's start off with Brown Forman, the Jack Daniels maker buzzing higher after beating analysts expectations this morning. But the company is still noting volatility in its operating environment, citing geopolitical uncertainties and global macroeconomic conditions. Tim, you flagged this one?

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, I Think if you look at the all the spirits companies and it's also a morning where you saw some of the ratings agencies talking about where the tariff imports impacts were certainly going to be higher for some of these spirits companies, Brown, Forman and Diageo and you can make an argument a handful of the other ones have really been priced to the detriment of margin and their business over the last couple of years, including China. This is a story that actually isn't a value play yet but I think there's earnings reacceleration margins were better. This was a big surprise. I think there's more to go.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, take a look at shares of CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity stock down nearly 6 1/2% after last night's disappointing guidance. It's now down nearly 20% since hitting a record just last month. Dan?

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, this stock rallied 35% from its January lows. It was just off to the races and it's retraced that entire move. This thing was trading down much more on the opening. It had a good comeback. So to me I just think there's a lot of stocks that actually overshot a little bit and didn't take too much fundamental news or bad fundamental news to have Brown trip the whole move.

[Melissa Lee]

What do you make of this move guy?

[Laurie Calvert]

If you look at where CrowdStrike was last July went from about 370 to 230 and a day and a half, two days on the back of the news that we heard it recovered the entire move traded above 400. Now it's traded back to the level we broke down from. This should be huge support right here. I actually think you buy CrowdStrike at this level.

[Melissa Lee]

By the way, don't miss the CEO CrowdStrike. That's on Mad Money tonight, 6:00pm Eastern Time right here on CNBC. And rounding it all out, Foot Locker rising as much as 13% after this morning's earnings beat. Shares closed off the highs but still up more than 5%. The athletic retailer posting same store sales growth that topped expectations for the quarter shares though just where they were about two weeks ago. But still you would think that they would be facing tariff pressures, consumer uncertainty, etc. And here they are up 5.

[Laurie Calvert]

Been a horrible performer though. But look at where we traded down in August of 2023. Look at where we recently traded down to. I think technically and if Chris were here I'm goodbye the guess I'm not bringing back but there's a major double bottom to trade against. I actually think you can be long footlocker here.

[Melissa Lee]

How much do you discount the commentary about uncertainty in all of these? I mean, it seems like a freebie for companies to say oh is uncertain geopolitical tariffs, etc. So we're uncertain.

[Tim Seymour]

You know, it's, it's, it should give them a free pass to just kind of come out and get everything potentially bad out there. But I actually think it's been the opposite. I mean, I haven't looked at this one in particular, but companies in general have not wanted to say all that much the last like month or so. It has been the weirdest year ahead reporting season I've ever seen where it's, you know, we've seen the optimism be eclipsed by uncertainty and it wasn't really even until February 1st we got companies even willing to talk about, about the Mexico and Canada tariffs. So there's just not as much detail as you would think coming out.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, up next, final trades, final trade time. Dan Nathan.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, Ron mentioned Marty Zwogg. Great book, Winning on Wall Street. We get asked for recommendations all the time.

[Guy Adami]

All right, Tim, this European outperformance is going to continue, I think. You don't necessarily have to be just in the industrials. I look at a Novartis which is world class and outperforming.

[Melissa Lee]

Lori Calvacina of RBC Utilities.

[Tim Seymour]

Reasonably valued and defensive.

[Melissa Lee]

Great to have you here on the show tonight, Lori Guy, is it okay to have you? By the way, Tim threw a. What'd I do?

[Laurie Calvert]

He threw a Baby Ruth at me to break and it was, you know, I put it on your desk for you to eat and you threw it right out.

[Guy Adami]

I love Baby Ruth. I appreciate the Nestle's Crunch. Love Nestle.

[Melissa Lee]

Anyway, do you have a trade?

[Laurie Calvert]

General Motors, day two.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, thanks for watching Fast. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer For 140 years.

[Tim Seymour]

MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities, and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail].