
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger stepping down, as the chipmaker looks to bounce back from a tumultuous couple of years. What the turnaround plans may look like now, and how Intel can keep up with competition. Plus Fast Money’s Obesity Week kicks off. The emerging players in the weight-loss drug battle, and what industry leaders see next for the space. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
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Tim Seymour
SIPC first and foremost, the thing that.
Melissa Lee
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Tim Seymour
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Melissa Lee
Visit fordpro.com today to learn more. Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is FAST money. Here's what's on tap tonight on the out at Intel, Pat Gelsinger ousted from the CEO spot at the semi company after nearly four years of lackluster results. But will new leadership be able to turn around a long struggling stock? We'll debate that. Plus, resilient retail consumer stocks have been outperforming the broader market over the past month. Will holiday shoppers keep this trade in rally mode? And we're kicking off obesity week here on Fast money. Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb on set to discuss the latest developments and how the weight loss space could be impacted by the next administration. I'm Melissa Lee. Come with you live from studio Be at the nasdaq on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan Gaidami and Savita Subramanian, head of US Equity and quantitative strategy at bank of America securities. Welcome, Savita. We start off with the Intel CEO shake up. Pat Gelsinger abruptly pushed out from the top spot after almost four years at the helm. The board announcing that the company's CFO and products head will take over as interim co CEOs. The US chip maker has struggled with declining market share and has failed to gain traction in the air race. The stock was down more than 60% under Gelsinger's tenure. Today's news initially sent shares popping as much as 6%, but they ended the session in the red. It was the only stock in the SMH ETF down today with names like Taiwan, Semi, Amat, Marvell all seeing outsized gains. So what does this mean that this news couldn't even get shares of intel rallying? Seems like there's deeper troubles ahead.
Guy Adami
Guy, you know I want to be kind here but then again, I don't.
Melissa Lee
Want to be kind of been kind to Pat Gelsinger because of the performance.
Guy Adami
Justifiably so apparently we played a video. I wasn't paying any attention. I'm sorry, Sandy. I'm sure it was great. But you think about it, it's almost impossible to have that. There it is.
Melissa Lee
One, two. I mean, that's it.
Dan Nathan
See?
Guy Adami
And you know what's amazing? We said it at the time, if.
Melissa Lee
You'Re going to get out there, why do it at all?
Guy Adami
Why do it at all?
Tim Seymour
But look, if you're going to do.
Dan Nathan
It at all anyway, anyway.
Guy Adami
And that was I think the beginning of the end. And so when the stock is down.
Dan Nathan
Actually the stock was down like 60% at the point he did that and it went down another 60% which is, which is remarkable.
Guy Adami
And over the same period of time, think about what semiconductors have done and think of what the broader market has done. So it's really difficult to have that kind of underperformance. With that said, you'll read about how intel is a difficult company to manage and a lot of moving parts. But you know, the bottom line is you can't cut your way and then lack of innovation your way to prosperity. And that's what's been going on there. With that said, I'm surprised the stock behaved the way it did today. If you had told me a week ago this would happen, I'd say the Stock's me up 5%. It wasn't. But I still probably one of the few people to think there might be some opportunity here in 2025 for a name like Intel.
Melissa Lee
It was initially and then the analysts started coming out saying maybe this raises questions about the path of manufacturing. It raises broader questions about its progress. Exactly, exactly.
Dan Nathan
So I think at one point it was up six and a half percent at least pre market. And what's signified here is that the board has a search committee. I don't think think they knew this was coming. And so you can say that's good news or bad news. You know, I'll take a glass half full just because we, we know change was needed at intel, abrupt change and in fact I think the path forward here could be one where they find a manufacturing partner. Taiwan Semi has always been that path. Now I realize there's politics around that, but I do think, you know, getting in partnership to eventually enable TSMC wafers to work with, with the intel fabs is part of at least a story where they're relevant now. Even while all the exciting, you know, sexy stuff I think is out of. So yeah, I think you have to like the news. There's no quick fix.
Savita Subramanian
You know, it's so interesting. This is one of the biggest years in terms of CEO and C suite changes that we've seen for the s and P500. I feel like this is telling us that we're moving into a stock pickers market because, you know, a year ago it didn't matter who was at the helm, it was all macro and rate risk. But I think this is a really interesting sign that it's becoming much more idiosyncratic.
Chris Rolland
Yeah. And I think to Tim's point about who benefits from this, I mean there's going to be a whole heck of a lot of uncertainty for a while. We talked about this summer, there was a rumor about Qualcomm looking to possibly buy intel and the fact that Qualcomm actually commented on it at the time, they said they're not going to consider anything until after the election. And so here you are. I mean there's probably not a lot of great history seeing a CEO ousted, having a board potentially shaking up and seeing a kind of merger or an acquisition of this sort of size. But I think to Tim's point about who benefits, you know, so Taiwan Semi was up 5%. I thought it was kind of curious why amat. So they're a provider of machines that obviously make the chips. That was also up 5%, kind of filled in the gap. So there must be some angle there. But you know, we talk about it all the time and so we just said it. Stock pickers market. It's like you don't really want to be buying value stocks in a rip roaring bull market like this. They just don't work particularly well. At some point you're starting to see a lot of crap starting to rally as the market is kind of broadening out a little bit. And if this thing can't get out of its own way, it has that huge gap from earnings a couple months ago and just assume whoever takes over, they're going to do exactly what Gelsinger did in early 2021 plan that they.
Dan Nathan
Don'T know they're going to, you're going.
Chris Rolland
To clear the dax, you're going to like guide down. So you make it. So there's probably more gaps to be had in this one.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. So let's say we're trying to find the value here. What is the path in your view for. I mean, if they shed manufacturing, if they don't go down that very, very costly plan to go into manufacturing and build all sorts of, I mean, what is left of intel or maybe that is the way to plow forward with that.
Guy Adami
I think it's a plow forward with that and I think it's also to say, hey, you know, been behind the curve and obviously semiconductors that are the growth area where clearly their data businesses, I mean that clearly has been a drag, but I do think there's opportunity. And if you look at again we've mentioned this, it didn't work out. But in terms of homeland security plays and the importance of intel in the United States, I mean there's an argument to be made. And by the way, there were a lot of old tech companies over the last five or six years that were left for dead. IBM being one, Oracle being another, that seemingly found their way out of nowhere. I think intel can be one of.
Dan Nathan
Those companies like building Foundry is where I think all saying is costly and it's going to take some time. So you get the sense that there's some need to have more financial stability in the short term and that means there's going to be asset sales, there's going to be, there are going to be partnerships and there's going to be a lot of government help. So I think the story remains somewhat murky here and I think really Intel's existential existence, you know, is if this was a Jean Paul Sartre nausea school, you know, we would all be questioning really who they think, well, this is what we do on once in a while anyway.
Guy Adami
Well, the last thing I'll just say.
Chris Rolland
Is we've heard this again and again over the last month or so since earnings season really got going, is that the PC business is really bad. You know what I mean? Even the smartphone business, not particularly great, they don't have a lot of exposure there. But the PC stuff, they do. And so to me, if you don't have, if you don't have a chip and AMD has shown us this, if you don't have something that's competitive with AMD and Generative AI, you're kind of nowhere. And if that other business that you're relying on to keep you above the fold is not doing particularly well, there's the breakdown right there, it's not a great place to be.
Melissa Lee
All right, for more, let's bring in Chris Rollin of Susquehanna. Chris, what's your take? What is Intel's path forward? Is this a value stock?
Tim Seymour
It's certainly not a growth stock. So I believe that they had some sort of a setback here. It could be guidance for the quarter. It more likely, though, is a setback on their five nodes in four years. That was Pat's plan and perhaps even 18Amore specifically, their next big node. That may have slipped here. And this puts everything kind of into jeopardy. This does not seem like this was something that was planned. It seemed a little bit more sudden. I think Pat was like ride or die Intel. He was ride or die American manufacturing. And so my guess is that something slipped here. It could have been in the roadmap. And this puts kind of the whole Pat plan in jeopardy.
Melissa Lee
So you mentioned the quarter. And could it be because the quarter was bad? The current quarter, I'm assuming. I mean, the August quarter was horrendous. And so for you to say that the current quarter is something went wrong, that means it's horribly wrong. Considering in that August quarter they cut their guidance for the year. They cut their workforce by 15%, they suspended the dividend. I mean, you name it, it was terrible news that day.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, it was awful. Update. And like I said, Pat may be leaving because of the December guidance. I do think, however, it's more likely about manufacturing, more likely about that roadmap and 18A perhaps slipping as well. This was his thing. Five nodes, four years. And so if that doesn't work, he doesn't work. Intel's plan of becoming the next manufacturing American giant, that doesn't work either. I think that's more likely it rather than guidance.
Dan Nathan
So, Chris, it's Tim. Thanks. This gets us then to kind of that question we were getting to earlier about the philosophy. But it really gets back to. And I think one of your competitors has a statement out there that they need a technologist to solve technology problems. And I'm curious if that's what you think too. And really it gets back to who are they? What are they going to be here?
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I think the path forward here, back to Melissa's question, is to break the company into two. And it's to break the product or design part of the company away from manufacturing. Manufacturing is going to be low, multiple, high value. You're going to have to inject Capex, perhaps you can even sell part of the design slash product business to inject capital into the foundry part of this, but the design part of this and perhaps the part that Qualcomm is interested in here is quite valuable. But for some reason, AMD has a $250 billion market cap and intel only has 100, even though they still have majority share in both servers and PC over amd. So I do believe that there is value there, but it' being completely masked by this manufacturing business that is something like a relic of a decade or two past.
Guy Adami
Yeah, the margin deterioration over the last couple of quarters has been dramatic. I mean this last Mel just said it was a disaster. I mean is there anything in the short term they can do to focus on things that are higher margin and might be able to move the needle that might get people excited about the.
Tim Seymour
Name Again, you know, truthfully, not really. So they have actually moved to TSM and these products, Lunar Lake for PC in particular are benchmarking really well. And ironically it's not their own silicon. So that is weighing on gross margin. The thing they're trying to do is bring their own products into their own product their their own manufacturing into their own products to increase gross margin. But that's not expected until late 2025. So there's not a lot that they can do right now. And so you know, the die has kind of been cast here.
Melissa Lee
Alia yak to ask. The die has been cast.
Dan Nathan
Very nice. Keep going.
Chris Rolland
Whoa.
Melissa Lee
So $24 a share approximately is where intel trading now if you are right and they break up the company, should you be a shareholder right now thinking that value will be unlocked or is this just a no touch completely?
Tim Seymour
I don't know. We're going to have to do some deep work on breaking this apart. It really matters how much cash needs to be injected into the manufacturing operations. Are they going to shut down, for example, the Ohio construction that's under underway right now, There's a big mud pit. Are they going to shut that down? You know, how much capital do they need? What are they ultimately going to do with that? My guess is if they can cleave these off successfully, the two parts are probably worth more than 30 bucks in aggregate. But we need to do some deeper work and there are some big questions that need to be answered if we were to do that.
Melissa Lee
Chris, great to speak with you. Thank you.
Tim Seymour
Thank you guys.
Melissa Lee
Chris Rolland of Susquehanna. A lot of hair on this story. Do you want to touch this?
Chris Rolland
So to guys point about margins, I mean, you know, back in 2019, this is a company that did $22 billion in net income. Okay. And they had 67% gross margins. They're expected to have 35% gross margins this year and the company swung to a loss. I don't know how you come back for that. It really is a sum of the parts story. They're not going to be able to kind of compete from a technology standpoint with the places that they need to do with this sort of financial performance. So I hate to be so dire about it. I think it does get sold for parts.
Melissa Lee
You're still a shareholder?
Dan Nathan
I am and you know, I'm a much smaller shareholder. Not just through drawdown, but you know, I don't. It's been very difficult because when you asked about the value dynamic, there's no value in terms of the earnings multiple. There's, there's no value here at all. I mean this, the stock isn't cheap. I think it gets back to a couple of things. I think the board is in a much more independent position. So it is bringing up a great point about, think about the year of 2024 and what it's meant for CEOs getting kicked out the door. And we're talking about high profile CEOs. Enough is enough. There's a couple also who looked like they were about to go. I won't name companies but they're hanging in there. I think for the semiconductor space it will get back to stock picking. And I think if you look at the semi space since six months is actually down one and a half percent to the S and P's, you know, whatever it's doing, it's underperformed retail by 1500 basis points. So you know, that's a dynamic here. And if you look at AMD relative to Nvidia, that's a place where I think that that pair looks interesting even though you don't have that kind of growth. I like, I like md.
Savita Subramanian
You know, I'm just going to give you a quant stat. So divestitures, you kind of want to own them. The statistics show that companies that break up or spin out generally outperform.
Melissa Lee
So what time period?
Savita Subramanian
Yeah, so we looked at, I think it was like a six month time frame. So maybe you have to be patient. But it's usually a good idea. Companies don't do it unless they look.
Chris Rolland
A bit of a disaster. I mean like, you know, I think in tech it's a kind of hard.
Guy Adami
Thing, right Guy Franz Kafka wrote the Metamorphosis. I mean if we're going in.
Dan Nathan
So I'm thinking very literary show.
Guy Adami
And all I was going to say was but you know, Gregor Samsa is the sort of the Pat Gelsinger. If you treat somebody like a bug, they turn into a bug. And I think that's what we're seeing here. So as much As I like.
Melissa Lee
So who is the bug in this?
Guy Adami
Pat Gelsinger.
Melissa Lee
Pat Gelsinger is the bug.
Guy Adami
He's the Gregor Sander.
Dan Nathan
He never really. Yeah, no, he never cocoon.
Guy Adami
They had him in the basement. They threw an apple had lodged in his back. And with all that said, I mean I do think if you're looking for a trade in 2025, I think intel could be one of those ones that surprised people to the upside.
Melissa Lee
All right, well, tech spending is one of the big reasons why our guest trader Severe Subramanian is bullish on stocks. She's got a 6666 price target on the S&P 500 for next year, which implies a 10% gain from today's close. So what should we know about. You like stock picking here? That's how we'll get there.
Savita Subramanian
I like stock picking, but I think even the index, it's hard to say there's more downside risk than upside risk. And here's my call. I know that everybody is bullish and it feels like sentiment has hit these really high levels where you want to sell. But the truth is there is euphoria in one specific pocket of the market and that is mega cap tech. Outside of that, there's not a lot of bulls on your average company. The other factor that I think is so interesting is if you look at the spread between the average S and P company and the index itself, massive difference. So you know, again, I'll say it again, and we all know this, but the index is very top heavy. But the average company in the index is actually trading at relatively healthy multiples. I think, you know, going back to this manufacturing theme, I think this could be the beginnings of a stronger environment for manufacturing because when you look, you know, ground that's been broken around reshoring or building out grid and infrastructure, we're in an environment where this is a long tailed theme. Most tech companies have told us that the key risk around AI is under investing. So they've basically told us they're going to spend a lot of money over the next several years on not just tech, but you know, power, infrastructure, metals, machinery, a huge pickup I think in terms of manufacturing dollar spend.
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
Chris Rolland
As a strategist, do you always believe what companies are going to tell you about what they need to do going forward? And I mean that sincerely because again.
Savita Subramanian
No, you have to chronically disbelieve what.
Chris Rolland
They'Re saying because the upside to Capex spends as a percentage basis keeps going lower. I know the numbers, the absolute numbers are going higher. That's the one thing I would kind of worry about. Because if the rest of the sectors that have not been infected or not euphoric, as you just mentioned, don't spend, if they don't see the return on investment, then the capex is going to come down pretty quickly.
Savita Subramanian
Well, I don't necessarily think so. In fact, I think what we're seeing now is just the beginnings of an acceleration in capex and here's why. The US has underinvested in its own infrastructure for more than 10 years. Right? Stuff is old in the US and it's starting to break. Meanwhile, since, since 2015, we've moved all this manufacturing capability from other parts of the world to the US and we're starting to see municipalities fray. Right? I mean, if you look at the accident rate in certain municipalities, it's really jumped up just over the last couple of years because of all this extra activity. So I think that there's an almost mandatory infrastructure rebuild. Get efficient. I mean, look at all the equipment that companies are using. It's not efficient. If they replace it, they'll become that much more efficient. And that involves spending money on old economy, you know, machinery and construction and commodities and, you know, so I think that this is really an environment where we all pooh, pooh the idea that the US could ever see a real spending cycle. But we're there. All the ducks are in a row. We're not, we're not able to move to other parts of the globe anymore. In fact, we're moving back to the U.S. more activity here, more activity up and down the North America corridor from Canada to Mexico. So I think that all of this is creating this perfect storm for cyclicals to outperform in a really material way over the next several years. Meanwhile, conversations with clients are all about tariffs throwing the world into a global recession. We're still in this environment where folks are looking at the glass as almost empty. Meanwhile, I feel like it could run us over. I'm going to use some fancified terms here too, but I think that we're at a point where the US economy could be really surprisingly strong, which means inflation, which means less Fed cuts, but it's also positive.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Thanksgiving in the books. But the holiday spirit is just getting started. Where consumers are grabbing their gifts as retail posts its best November in years. That is next. And it wasn't just holiday shopping this weekend. Moviegoers piling into theaters and smashing records. Just how far Moana 2 will go and how wicked is Defying gravity. All that when Fast Money returns back into.
Tim Seymour
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc.
Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
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Dan Nathan
You have ceilings you have to break.
Melissa Lee
And I've had to do a lot of that.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. It's Cyber Monday and the holiday shopping season is in full swing. Tim, you can start shopping. I'm early to wait.
Dan Nathan
I've got a couple things on the books.
Melissa Lee
All right. Retail names have been getting in the spirit. The XRT outperforming the S and P today and over the last month, nearly doubling the benchmarks. Return since the start of November. And take a look at some of today's big winners. Victoria's Secret, Gap, Lululemon, even Dollar Tree seeing some outsized gains. Can the shopping spree continue through year end? Guy, what do you think?
Guy Adami
For the stocks? Yes. I mean for the consumer. We always say never underestimate us. Consumers want, they will always spend. But now you got to figure out what's run too Much and what is sold off that gives you an opportunity. We actually talked about it when they reported. I thought the Nordstrom's quarter was fine. I thought the guidance was sandbagging. That's what scared people. We thought it could trade lower, probably trade a little lower than I thought. But here we are now back above 23. So a name like Nordstrom's, to me you can make a pretty compelling argument for Gap might have gotten a little bit ahead of itself here. Macy's, maybe there's some room. But you're looking for the names that have gotten beaten up up in my opinion. Unjustifiably.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Lulu, five below. They've got earnings this week.
Dan Nathan
So yeah, I think you're going to see a probably a surprise in the dollar store space. The five belows and they've actually traded okay, some choppiness, very China dependent. A lot of tariff headlines that's determining. Lulu's had a phenomenal run. It's hard for me to hear that Lulu is going to tell you that margins are getting better and that the competitive landscape is getting easier. So I'd be careful on that one. I certainly haven't changed my tune. Something like a Home Depot, you know, we got an update from both they and Lowe's and their move to all time highs has not been becoming coming from lower interest rates or heat lock loans or Dynamics been coming from better margins even though they've been very cautious on the next couple of quarters. That to me is a setup. I think it goes higher.
Chris Rolland
You know it's interesting. You know we talk about E commerce, we've been talking about for 25 years how disruptive it's been. Amazon always runs, I mean like it always runs into Black Friday, into Cyber Monday. It almost got back up towards those highs. But another name I think is really interesting is Shopify, which has had tremendous performance this year. It's up 45% on the year. They guided up and put up a great quarter just a few weeks ago. Huge gap to 52 week highs and they're talking about GMV. So gross merchandise value up 22% year over year. That's not counting today Cyber Monday, but that's exactly what it was up last year at this time. So I think that's kind of interesting. Valuations getting rich, stocks getting overexposed. If you have any disappointing data over the next week or so, I think some of these stocks could be volunteers.
Melissa Lee
All right, there's a lot more fast Monday to come. Here's what's coming up next.
Tim Seymour
It wasn't just turkey, leftovers and shopping this Black Friday. Moviegoers following the yellow brick road to a record holiday weekend. The numbers defying gravity next. Plus Fast Money's obesity week kicking off with special coverage of the weight loss industry and how leading experts and emerging players are tipping the scales in the space. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. The box office is booming this season with Moana to Wicked and Gladiator 2 combining for a record holiday weekend bringing in over $400 million. Julia Borson joins us now to break down the blockbuster numbers. Julia well, Melissa, Disney's Moana to led a massive box office rebound this weekend. Weekend with a $221 million domestic box office take despite lower critics and audience scores than the first movie. Now Moana 2 had the biggest Thanksgiving opening for a movie ever, the highest ever global weekend for an animated film. And all of this bodes so well for Disney because it has a Lion King prequel, Mufasa, opening on December 20th. And Disney plus generally gets a boost from sequels, driving viewership of an original film. Universal's Wicked and Paramount's Gladiator 2 also continued to perform, driving the five day box office to a record for Thanksgiving weekend, more than $100 million more than the prior box office record for the weekend. The box office had been down 10 and a half percent year to date through Sunday before Thanksgiving. Now it's down just six and a half percent year to date. Theater stocks all ending the day higher. Cinemark saying it hit a new Thanksgiving record and its second best November domestic box office performance yet. AMC saying that Friday was its highest total revenue Friday of all time. Melissa Quick question Julia Box office numbers are not inflation adjusted, correct? These are not inflation adjusted. But I think what's really important here is that with those ticket sales also comes things like popcorn sales. And those prices definitely have gone up along with inflation as have ticket sales sales. So I think even if you account for the fact that there has been ticketing inflation, if you look at the fact that this Thanksgiving box office was $100 million more than the last record, it means that there's definitely has been some growth here and certainly a rebound from those pre pandemic numbers. I mean there's a lot of concern that we just not get back to the kind of numbers we saw in 2018, 2019. Julia, thank you. Julie Boorstin. I don't think anybody here trading theater stocks based on this, but a Disney we can trade.
Dan Nathan
So yeah, AKA Disney. And I think what we got from that guide, we kind of snickered at a three year ultra detailed guide from the company about three weeks ago. But, but what you've heard and what's corroborated by what's going on in streaming and profitability there is. You're talking about 8 to 10% EPS growth over the next couple of years. I think you can buy it. I think you can buy it. I think that streaming business, the momentum is there and we've forgotten about this flywheel as we say. So Mufasa, let's do it. I'm that Mufasa.
Melissa Lee
Go ahead. You're all over.
Chris Rolland
You just, you just said we're not trading the theater stock.
Melissa Lee
I said I don't think any of you guys would trade.
Dan Nathan
I'm not sure.
Melissa Lee
I just want to make one based on this.
Chris Rolland
I just want to make one quick observation. AMC if this was like two years ago would have gone berserk. It was up like 2%. So it says something about like some risk appetite for meme stock.
Dan Nathan
But it's meantime, I mean if you look at everything else, it would be time. I mean meme stocks are running. Robin Hood's running, Bitcoin's running. Interesting.
Guy Adami
You look at the analyst calls. I think Disney reported on the 15th of November and we talked about you get above 124ish, which was the March high ish and now all of a sudden analysts start to chase, I think the average price target still in the one teens you're going to start seeing people raise their price targets to the mid-130s, mid-140s. And that's another name that might have some tailwinds here that nobody's expecting. So I'm sort of with Tim on this one. I think you can own Disney.
Dan Nathan
Favorite holiday movie.
Scott Gottlieb
You got me.
Dan Nathan
Yeah. What, what do you know?
Scott Gottlieb
Die Hard.
Melissa Lee
That's every holiday is a movie for all times.
Guy Adami
No, remembering the Godfather. I mean it's, you know, it's in December.
Savita Subramanian
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
It happens all time. I mean it's over a year. So it's every single season of the year. Is Godfather.
Guy Adami
Well, that's right.
Dan Nathan
A killing elf right now.
Savita Subramanian
I love it.
Dan Nathan
But it's on like Chris coming up.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, sizing up the obesity market. The GLP1 drug category could get even fatter in the year ahead. Fast Money's Obesity Week kicks off next with Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA commissioner, here on set with all of the weight loss developments. Investors should be watching more Fast Money right after this.
Tim Seymour
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST MONEY Stocks closing mix after the Thanksgiving weekend. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closing at fresh records. The S&P's 54th record close this year, in fact. But the Dow slightly lower down nearly 130points. Shares of Block getting a boost today up nearly 5% after analysts at Bernstein named it their best new idea. And upping the price target to 120 from 90. The firm citing significant EBITDA growth in into 2025 as well as lower regulatory scrutiny and potential for S and P inclusion at some point. Shares of Apple hitting a fresh record high for a second straight session now up more than 24% this year. And Elon Musk's record. Tesla pay package of $5.6 billion rejected again by a Delaware judge. Tesla now ordered to pay $345 million in fees. Well, obesity drug heavyweights Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk recouping some post election losses, but still lower than where they were on November 6, with some lingering uncertainty around how President elect Trump's picks to lead the federal health agencies would impact the GLP1 category. For more on the key developments in the space to watch, we're joined by former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb. He's a CNBC contributor, serves on the board of Pfizer as well. Dr. Gottlieb, great to see you here in person. Welcome to Fast money.
Scott Gottlieb
Thanks a lot.
Melissa Lee
The last time I specifically talked to you about weight loss drugs was a while ago, maybe a year ago even. And so I'm wondering what you think of the ramp. The last time we chatted you said that it was a promising space akin to statins. But now we're seeing some, I don't want to say evidence, but maybe some data points, some concerns that the growth trajectory isn't there, the demand isn't keeping up. What's your take?
Scott Gottlieb
Look, I think if you look back to when we spoke probably more than a year ago, I would have had an expectation that they would have grown more quickly. But I think as new indications come on these labels, certainly the indication around cardiovascular risk was a real inflection point. I think in the coming year you're going to see new indications get on these labels, maybe for sleep apnea, musculoskeletal diseases. And there's also going to be a big data card that gets turned over by Novo Nordisk around reduction of symptoms, signs and symptoms of dementia. And if that's positive and there's some indication from smaller trials that that could be a positive study, I think that's going to be another big inflection point. And so I think that this, the future looks very promising for these drugs. From a public health standpoint, how do.
Melissa Lee
You see anything changing in terms of your expected trajectory, just absent political winds and when the new administration comes and whether or not anything will change just because we know Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Is more sort of, he endorses more nutrition and is in favor of those sorts of interventions as opposed to medications.
Scott Gottlieb
Yeah, look, I don't think the public health need is going to change. We've seen some comments generally around excess utilization, so marginal utilization and maybe too much utilization among children. I think when you look at the actual data, the average BMI of patients who are on Lilly's drug is around 37. The average BMI of people who are on McGovy, which is Novo Nordisk's drug, is 38. That's quite high. That's about 290 pounds in a six foot male. So that's class two obesity. So that's not marginal utilization, that's people who are properly indicated for this drug. And when you look at the pediatric scripts, which has also come under some scrutiny, not a lot of children are on these drugs right now. It's growing quickly. But when you look at the actual prescriptions, there's about 4,000 children on Wegovia according to 2023 data. And if you look at Lilly's data, it's less than 1% of their total user base are children. And you know, these are children who are very obese, probably have or are on the pathway towards developing diabetes. That's a very high value use of these drugs. From a public health standpoint, if you can get a child on these drugs who have a very high BMI and get them to lose weight on these medications. So I think that when you look inside the data on who's using it, you're going to see also appropriate use.
Guy Adami
Utilization, change gears and it's great to have you on. What does the Dr. Oz for center for Medicaid and Medicare mean to you?
Scott Gottlieb
Yeah, look, I'm very bullish on Oz. I think that he's going to be a good leader of that organization. He's assembling a very good team right now. I think they're going to start announcing people that they're going to be putting in place in that organization. I think he's been very savvy about who he's talking to about filling key roles there. But look, I worked at Medicare. You know, you spend your days in the administrator's office worrying about and thinking about how to do conversions and injectables from infused drugs to, you know, injectable drugs. It's mind numbing work. The things that come up to that front office. I think Oz is probably going to be more of an outside player. If you think about today's senior citizens, they all grew up watching him. I think he can lead a real revolution or a renaissance in trying to get people into fitness programs, trying to get people more aware of their health than the senior population and leave some of the day to day operation to people who are more technical. So I think he'll be a different kind of leader and I think he could be really impactful in that organization.
Melissa Lee
Back to the weight loss space, you mentioned other indications. What do you think will move the needle in terms of opening up the addressable market? Or do you see it sort of as people who are on injectables switching to an oral? So therefore you're not really gaining in market share.
Scott Gottlieb
Hey look, you have data on Orpheglopron which is Lilly's oral drug. Coming next year you're probably going to see Novo potentially moved for the higher dose version of Rebelsis to get that into the market for the weight loss indication. And data look good there. I think they, they were supply constrained and that's why they haven't moved that forward. And you're also going to have data next year on the two follow on products, Tazepam which is Lilly's drug and Wegovy which is Novo's drug. Canvasamer and Retratide, excuse me, it's a hard name. So I think as new drugs come into the market, it's going to expand the market and some of these drugs could be more effective for certain patients. But I think it's going to just be the continued clinical data that shows all the downstream Health benefits of getting people who are indicated properly indicated for these drugs based on BMI onto these medications, helping them lose weight. The cardiovascular risk reduction from the SELECT trial, 20% reduction in high risk patients in MACE events, which is stroke and heart attack, that's quite profound. And that was on top of patients who were already maximized on available therapy. So to be able to introduce a new drug and achieve a 20% reduction in risk of heart attack and stroke is really profound from a medical standpoint.
Melissa Lee
Why do you think the FDA has vacillated on tirzepatide and the shortage list? Taking off the shortage list but saying, oh no, no, no, you have some more time here before we reconsider this?
Scott Gottlieb
Yeah, I'm not sure. I don't think that was a political decision. That was my first assumption that this was a political decision ahead of the election. From what I heard. I don't think that was the case. I think it's truly undergoing some more scrutiny. But I would expect the FDA to move on that before the end of the term because if they leave this on the shortage list or they take it off the shortage list and allow the compounders to continue on the market, they're really going to undermine their authorities on compounded drugs. I don't think they want to leave that precedent in place. So this is something I think they may try to move on to close this out and try to move the compounders, at least for the Lilly drug, where the drug isn't on the shortage list, off the market.
Melissa Lee
Right. Dr. Gottlieb, great to see you. Thanks for coming. Dr. Scott Gottlieb. And be sure to keep tuning in all week for Fast Money's continuing Obesity Week coverage. We'll be joined by CEOs of Altimmune structure Therapeutics, Bioage and more. That's every day right here, 5pm Eastern Time on on CNBC. What's the trade here, Dan?
Chris Rolland
Well, I think you have to look at what the Biden administration just proposed, right. So if you had Medicare coverage of expansion to Medicaid, what does that mean for pricing? I think they indicated maybe there's 8 million potential patients in those two groups. And if one of the issues about supply and demand, if the supply is coming more in line, if there's going to be more companies offering this sort of stuff and then the price comes down, I mean, this could be something that really continues the tale of this. And I think that, I think Lilly and Novo have kind of been de risked a little bit, taking a lot of that enthusiasm out of the stocks from the highs, the recent highs.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. What do you, how do you feel about healthcare? Pharma?
Savita Subramanian
I think so we're underweight. Health care. And you know, I think this is a sector that is very crowded, especially the GLP1 theme. And I think, you know, the question is how much good news is not in the stocks already. And I feel like it's hard to really see these as a continued outperformer.
Dan Nathan
No question about the addressable markets. That's been an interesting part of this conversation with Dr. Gottlieb. I think the Amgen reaction on their phase two, you know, ultimately that, that, that maritime data I think is being underestimated for what especially the second half of that data relief. I think Amgen is interesting.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, changes in the driver's seat at Stellantis. The automaker CEO stepping down amid falling sales with a C suite shuffle helped the stock make a U turn return. Plus new terrorist threats from President elect Trump. And why some Chinese tech execs are running into visa problems ahead of next year's CBS Consumer Electronics Show. The details when Fast Money returns. Welcome Back to Fast Money. French Italian automaker Stellantis dropping more than 6% today. The company announcing CEO Carlos Tavares is stepping down effective immediately and that the process to appoint his replacement is well underway. This comes as Stellantis struggles with falling sales. The company ocean profit warning earnings in late September, citing broader industry challenges, difficulties in the world's largest auto market, China. Shares of Stellantis down 47% this year and it just dropped. And it wasn't good news necessarily. It was sort of like Intel. Maybe they have bigger problems.
Guy Adami
Yeah. So, okay, our crack staff back in EC pull up a chart from October of 2022 and you'll see where we traded down today is where we traded down about two or so years ago. We did it on big volume today, probably three times normal volume volume. Which means in my opinion, given this dramatic drop over the last year, basically today might have been capitulation day. So if you're looking to trade a stock around a level, I think this one will get you done.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, President elect Donald Trump turning up the tariff heat. Why? He could be going after some countries with 100% tariffs and the potential fallout. That's next. More fast money in two. Welcome back to FAST money. President elect Donald Trump taking aim at the BRIC countries in his latest round of terror threats, saying the group will face levies of 100% if they move away from the US dollar as a reserve currency. Our Eamon Javers is in Washington with the very latest. Eamon.
Chris Rolland
Hey there, Melissa. That's right, former President Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on the BRICs if they try to undermine the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. It comes at a time of increased trade and financial cooperation between Russia and China as those two countries try to offer an alternative to the US Led global order. In a social media post, the former president wrote this. We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. economy. Now that threat comes on top of Trump's threat last week for an additional 10% tariff tariff on goods from China unless China cracks down on the illegal fentanyl trade. One big unknown here, Melissa, is just how sustainable a 100% tariff on Chinese goods would be. It could cause prices to spike inside the United States on a vast array of products, resulting in a political blowback for the political party that supported it. And of course, the other thing, Melissa here is that the dollar became the global reserve currency because of its value to the users of it market, not because the United States sort of badgered them into using it. And so for users around the world to look at the dollar, they'll say we're either going to do this or we're not. If it makes sense for us, you would imagine, right?
Melissa Lee
Eamon. Thank you. Eamon Javers in D.C. meanwhile, CES, the world's largest tech showcase, comes to Las Vegas next month. And more than 30% of this year's 4,000 plus registered exhibitors are from China. But many of their employees say they're being denied entry visas for the event spend even as the Trump administration gears up to impose additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods. Our Eunice Yoon joins us here on set with the details. And Eunice, you know, I read the story and I thought, wow, this really underscores how bad things are getting when it comes to the US versus China in tech.
H
Yeah, but it's not particularly surprising because we have seen that visas are being denied by academics and for students. And so that's been a big complaint that we've heard. But from the State Department's perspective, they told me just, just earlier today that they are not allowed to discuss any individual cases because of US law. But the state media is calling on the US to resolve the issue and saying that this is a protectionist move. Overall, though, as your, to your point, this is really emblematic of some of the problems that we are seeing and the step to tit for tat and step by step action that we're expected to see, especially as you go into a Trump administration when it comes to.
Melissa Lee
The US moves to block crucial parts, crucial chips to the AI industry in China, an industry that China desperately wants to grow at a time when China is basically on its knees when it comes to the economy. I mean, how is that being perceived domestically there? And do you think that China is in a different position than during the first Trump administration because of where the economy is?
H
Yeah, I think this, that's really, it's really, really different just from a reporting standpoint because it's just such a tight environment now. It's, you're seeing that President Xi Jinping's agenda is much clearer. You were talking a little bit about tech. It's really important. I think that it's more important than growth and something that a lot of investors might assume is less important than growth. But growth is actually something that's kind of fallen by the wayside and the tech dominance and the national security part is, is much, much more important, obviously.
Guy Adami
Great to have you here, number one. Number two, I think the yuan's at like a four month low and JP Morgan just put a note out they could see China allowing the yuan to depreciate by about 15% in response to these tariffs on that.
H
Yeah, there's a lot of people who say the same thing, just that that's one way that we had seen the Chinese react in the first administration under President Trump, but that this is something that, that we could see again. But I think what's going to be different this time is that there's a willingness now that we've seen on the part of the Chinese to actually retaliate directly against US Companies because we have seen that with pvh, the owner of Calvin Klein, also with intel. And it's, I think that the Chinese have over the past couple of years been weaning themselves off of being so reliant on the US and that's one portion, but also that there isn't necessarily. They have their agenda and if the US Comes along or not, they don't really care that much. I think that they're just going to go ahead with what they need, which usually involves tech dominance.
Dan Nathan
So Eunice, and yeah, it's great to have you. And so China playing the long game and we've often talked about Apple being at risk and at times and so there's, you know, I think the Journal has an article, there's a highlight on BYD doing a lot of the manufacturing for them on a local level, that they essentially have two primary Chinese manufacturers. Are you worried about this? Should, should Apple investors think that the long game is now 10 years into this and at some point Apple is going to get tapped on the wrist?
H
I think that at some point when Apple doesn't become isn't as useful to the Chinese government in the overarching agenda for technology dominance, then Apple will fall by the wayside. I mean, it's just going to be used and until it's no longer necessary.
Melissa Lee
Eunice is here all week. Come on. So we'll have it back. Thank you. Next final trades.
Scott Gottlieb
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
There are your final trades. Thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money begins right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer first and foremost.
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Summary of CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode: Intel CEO Stepping Down… And Fast Money’s Obesity Week Kicks Off (12/2/24)
Release Date: December 2, 2024
Hosted by Melissa Lee and featuring a panel of top traders including Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Chris Rolland, and Savita Subramanian, this episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" delves into significant developments in the technology and healthcare sectors, examines resilient retail consumer stocks amid the holiday season, and kicks off Obesity Week with insights from former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb.
Intel's Leadership Shake-Up
The episode opens with the unexpected departure of Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger after nearly four years, a tenure marked by declining market share and a significant drop in stock performance. The board has appointed the company's CFO and head of products as interim co-CEOs. Despite an initial surge of 6% in Intel's shares following the announcement, the stock ultimately closed in the red, standing out negatively within the SMH ETF.
Panel Discussion Highlights:
Guy Adami ([02:21]): Expressed skepticism about Intel's performance under Gelsinger, noting, "the stock was down like 60% at the point he did that and it went down another 60% which is remarkable."
Dan Nathan ([02:40]): Highlighted the board's sudden decision, suggesting that "change was needed at Intel" and posited potential partnerships with manufacturing giants like TSMC as a pathway forward.
Savita Subramanian ([04:28]): Interpreted the CEO changes as indicative of a shift towards a "stock pickers market," emphasizing increased idiosyncratic factors over macroeconomic influences.
Chris Rolland ([04:51]): Discussed the broader implications for semiconductor stocks, noting that Intel's challenges could lead to further stock declines unless significant strategic shifts occur.
Tim Seymour ([08:02]): Speculated on Intel's roadmap setbacks, particularly concerning their "five nodes in four years" plan, which may have faltered, jeopardizing the company's strategic objectives.
Strategic Implications:
The panelists agreed that Intel's struggles are multifaceted, involving leadership, manufacturing challenges, and competitive pressures. The possibility of breaking the company into separate design and manufacturing entities was discussed as a potential strategy to unlock value and address operational inefficiencies.
Holiday Shopping Surge
As the holiday season ramps up, retail consumer stocks have shown remarkable resilience, with the XRT index outperforming the S&P 500. Notable gains were observed in companies like Victoria's Secret, Gap, Lululemon, and Dollar Tree, which nearly doubled their returns since the start of November.
Panel Insights:
Guy Adami ([22:43]): Emphasized the importance of consumer spending, stating, "Consumers want, they will always spend," and advised targeting undervalued or beaten-down stocks for potential gains.
Dan Nathan ([23:41]): Cautioned about inflated valuations in the retail sector but remained optimistic about companies like Home Depot and Lowe's, which have reached all-time highs driven by robust margins.
Chris Rolland ([24:21]): Highlighted the performance of e-commerce platforms like Shopify, noting their significant year-over-year growth but warned of potential volatility if upcoming earnings reports disappoint.
Savita Subramanian ([16:25]): Expressed bullishness on manufacturing-related stocks fueled by anticipated increases in capital expenditure (CapEx) and infrastructure rebuilding efforts in the U.S.
Market Dynamics:
The panelists discussed the sustainability of the retail rally, considering factors such as consumer confidence, supply chain stability, and the potential impact of macroeconomic variables like interest rates. The consensus was that while the holiday season presents opportunities, investors should remain selective and cautious.
Insights with Dr. Scott Gottlieb
Fast Money launches Obesity Week with an in-depth discussion featuring Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA Commissioner, focusing on the evolving landscape of weight loss drugs, particularly the GLP1 category.
Key Discussions:
Growth and Indications ([32:16] - [35:39]): Dr. Gottlieb highlighted ongoing advancements in GLP1 drugs, noting, "the average BMI of patients who are on Lilly's drug is around 37," underscoring the appropriate use of these medications for individuals with class two obesity. He anticipated new indications for these drugs, including treatment for sleep apnea and potential benefits in reducing dementia symptoms.
FDA Regulatory Environment ([36:45] - [37:45]): Addressing regulatory challenges, Dr. Gottlieb discussed the FDA's cautious approach towards tirzepatide and compounders, suggesting that the agency aims to maintain its authority over compounded drugs. He emphasized the importance of clinical data in expanding the market and improving drug efficacy.
Market Expansion and Public Health Impact ([35:39] - [36:45]): The conversation delved into the potential for expanding the addressable market through new drug formulations and indications. Dr. Gottlieb asserted, "the future looks very promising for these drugs" from a public health standpoint, given their significant impact on cardiovascular risk reduction.
Panel Reflection:
Savita Subramanian ([38:18]): Expressed a cautious stance on healthcare stocks, especially within the congested GLP1 drug category, indicating potential challenges in continued outperformance.
Dan Nathan ([38:53]): Highlighted the underestimation of maritime data and the potential of companies like Amgen in the evolving obesity drug market.
Strategic Takeaways:
Obesity Week underscored the critical role of clinical advancements and regulatory approvals in shaping the future of weight loss medications. The panelists recommended monitoring FDA decisions and clinical trial outcomes as pivotal factors influencing market dynamics and investment opportunities.
Record Holiday Weekend at the Box Office
The episode featured a segment on the booming box office performance during the Thanksgiving weekend, with Disney's "Moana 2," Universal's "Wicked," and Paramount's "Gladiator 2" contributing to a record-breaking holiday weekend grossing over $400 million.
Insights from Julia Boorstin ([26:12] - [28:26]):
Box Office Performance: Julia highlighted that "Moana 2 had the biggest Thanksgiving opening for a movie ever," driving significant revenue despite mixed critical reception.
Impact on Theater Stocks: The surge in box office numbers positively impacted theater chains like Cinemark and AMC, which reported record revenues, reflecting a rebound from the pandemic-induced downturn.
Inflation Considerations: While acknowledging that box office revenues are not inflation-adjusted, Julia emphasized the overall growth and rebound towards pre-pandemic levels, indicating a sustained recovery in the entertainment sector.
Panel Discussion:
Dan Nathan ([28:26]): Discussed Disney's strategic positioning with upcoming releases like the "Lion King" prequel and the synergistic boost from Disney+ streaming services.
Guy Adami ([29:04]): Pointed out the increased risk appetite reflected in the positive performance of theater stocks, contrasting with earlier periods when such stocks were more volatile.
Investment Implications:
The robust box office performance suggests a growing consumer appetite for theater experiences, potentially benefiting related stocks. However, the panel advised caution, noting that sustained growth depends on the continuous release of blockbuster films and maintaining strong consumer sentiment.
Executive Shake-Up at Stellantis
Stellantis, the French-Italian automaker, announced the immediate resignation of CEO Carlos Tavares amid declining sales and a challenging market environment. The company reported a profit warning in September, citing difficulties in the Chinese market and broader industry challenges, leading to a 47% drop in its stock year-to-date.
Panel Insights:
Strategic Concerns:
The departure of a CEO in the midst of falling sales raises concerns about Stellantis' ability to navigate the competitive automotive landscape, particularly with the ongoing transition to electric vehicles and the complexities of the global supply chain.
Proposed 100% Tariffs on BRICS Nations
President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) should they attempt to establish a new currency to rival the U.S. dollar. This move coincides with existing trade tensions, including an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods unless China addresses the illegal fentanyl trade.
Expert Commentary:
Chris Rolland ([40:41]): Explained the potential economic repercussions of such tariffs, stating, "it could cause prices to spike inside the United States on a vast array of products," and warned of significant political backlash.
Savita Subramanian ([38:37]): Highlighted the impact on global trade dynamics, noting that these tariffs could disrupt existing financial and trade relationships, particularly as BRICS nations seek alternatives to the U.S.-led global order.
Market Implications:
The proposed tariffs could lead to increased costs for American consumers and businesses, potentially sparking a trade war that would have far-reaching effects on global markets. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely, as these policies could influence currency valuations and international trade relationships.
US Visa Denials Affecting Chinese Exhibitors
Ahead of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, over 30% of the 4,000+ registered exhibitors from China faced visa denials, reflecting heightened tensions between the U.S. and China in the tech sector. This development occurs as the Trump administration considers further tariffs on Chinese goods.
Expert Insights:
Eunice Yoon ([42:32] - [43:11]): Discussed the implications of visa denials, citing increased protectionist sentiments and the strategic objectives of the Chinese government to prioritize tech dominance over growth.
Guy Adami ([44:19]): Pointed out the potential depreciation of the Chinese yuan in response to U.S. tariffs, suggesting a possible 15% decline, which could have significant implications for global currency markets.
Strategic Considerations:
The visa challenges underscore the ongoing struggles in U.S.-China relations, particularly in the technology arena. Companies like Apple, which rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing partners like BYD, may face increased operational risks and potential supply chain disruptions as geopolitical tensions escalate.
Conclusion
This episode of "Fast Money" highlighted critical shifts in leadership within major corporations like Intel and Stellantis, examined the resilience of retail consumer stocks during the holiday season, and provided deep insights into the evolving landscape of weight loss medications. Additionally, the discussions shed light on escalating trade tensions and their potential impact on global markets, particularly concerning U.S.-China relations. Investors were encouraged to stay informed and cautious, considering the multifaceted challenges and opportunities presented in these key sectors.
Note: All timestamps correspond to the original podcast transcript segments for reference.