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CNBC's "Fast Money"
Intel Posts Best Day Since 1987 and Counting Down to Big Tech Results 4/24/26
00:43:26
Shares of Intel hit all-time highs after last night’s blowout earnings report. What it says about the rest of the semi trade and what it could mean for AI. Plus nearly $16 trillion worth of mega cap tech stocks report results next week. What to expect from those earnings, and how options traders are setting up. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:03]
A
Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Intel's unprecedented rally. The long lagging semi stock soaring more than 23% to all time highs and bringing the rest of the chip trade with it. Did the company just give the green light to all of AI? We'll debate that. It's not just semi earnings on our minds. Nearly $16 trillion worth of mega cap tech reporting next week. What you should be watching, how the options markets are setting up for results. Plus, Novo finally catches a break in the obesity Dr. Drug race. Alibaba takes its AI behind the wheel and feeling groovy. Psychedelic stocks getting some love from the Trump administration this week. What's next for the space and how to trade the action now. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Steve Grasso and Mike Cope. And we start off with that semi surge led by none other than Intel. Shares of chip maker seeing their best day since 1987.
- [00:57]
B
Wow.
- [00:58]
A
After trounced earnings expectations last night and gave strong guidance for the current quarter. The soft closing at a record for the first time in nearly 26 years. The gains helping power. The broader semi trade to the SMH ETF surging 5% to an all time high. While the Sox post an 18th straight day in the green, extending its longest winning streak ever. The world's biggest chip stock in another notable winner Today, Nvidia up 4% and now just a stone's throw from its own intraday record. Nvidia, remember announced it was taking a $5 billion stake in intel last September. That followed the Trump administration investing nearly $9 billion in the month before. Both those bets have paid off nicely of intel have more than tripled since. So did we just get the all clear for the semi trade and maybe even for the AI trade overall? Tim, what do you think?
- [01:46]
C
Was this the all clear or did we get that like two weeks ago? I mean and I love how you know, refreshed update turnaround is is happening at Intel. We priced in Turnaround@Intel six weeks ago. But there's no question that with some fresh data points and the street has an opportunity to not only really assess the bottom up of intel, but this has been a top down, bottom up story. Right? The whole as we say the CPU dynamic which is is we've gone from being GPU to cpu. Now CPU maybe dominating GPU as We get past inference and as we get out of, you know, well past large language models, more into agentic and I think if I listen to the analyst that I read today, this was the story there's now talking about the addressable market in cpu. The thing that's fascinating here is that we're giving intel the credit on the bottom up. In other words, this is a company that can get it right, that can truly operate more efficiently, that can find the balance sheet and it just tells you how people either want to believe, and I do believe Chips USA is a big part of this story. But the addressable market on CPUs is now the story.
- [02:55]
A
Yeah, it is amazing that you know all the things that you national, the national champion for chip makers like all these things were in place but it's the CPU story that's really come into the fore. The idea, it's not just memory that is being constrained that if you want to play the constraints in the air trade and that's sort of the safer place to be that CPUs are now that answer.
- [03:15]
D
Yes. Although you know, you have to think it all. There's demand all the way along the chain, right. And the growth there in the CPO's is really what's sort of just exploding right now. The intel thing, the one thing I found interesting was that normally when you see a beat of this magnitude you see a sort of wholesale rerating of the stock and there weren't that many analysts that, that have a buy right now. I mean there's been some great concern about is the valuation getting way ahead of where the story is and a lot has to go right for them to, to be at this valuation. So they're already, it's already, you know, sort of discounting a lot to go. Right. However, I've said that for a really long time, totally missed the intel one. But it's not at all surprising to me that Nvidia would be up on a day like today.
- [04:01]
C
It's ironic isn't it, that intel is pulling Nvidia to all time highs and
- [04:06]
D
what it did to AMD was just astounding. So this does though feel a bit frothy.
- [04:13]
E
So I did buy this on the change of CEOs and on the government investment. I sold it, I bought around 20, sold it at around 40 and I feel like I didn't get the most out of this one. I wouldn't buy it back now. But I do believe you have the government investment, you have the foundry business, you have Sovereign and you have The Nvidia shareholder stake in them as well. So there's a host of reasons why I think the story could go higher. But I would not buy it back now. I don't want to give any profit back. B, I don't think that this story. I think the most bullish thing about this is that the government stake and they're not going to let them fail. So there could be more sovereign money, there could be more other.
- [04:58]
D
So a valuation that is so far away.
- [05:00]
A
Yeah, I know.
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D
Going to fail.
- [05:02]
E
Yeah, well, no, no, no fail. I mean stock price going down from here, period.
- [05:06]
D
Their cost was like 24, right?
- [05:08]
E
No, no, I'm talking about me buying it now. Us buying it now. Yes, yes. They made $24 billion on unrealized gain right now. The government a $24 billion if not more given today. So I think that when you look at this, if I'm going to tell people out there to buy it now, I can't do that.
- [05:25]
A
I'm surprised we haven't gotten a tweet from President Trump about how well the investment has great investment, because we usually get updates like that. Michael, I want to go to you on the point of valuation. I mean it's, I think that's why a lot of Wall street analysts didn't upgrade the stock on the back of results because you sort of feel like, you know what afterwards, 23% rally saying, you know what now buy the stock. I mean at these valuations it's difficult. If you didn't do that, you know, a week ago or five days ago.
- [05:52]
F
Yeah, I mean, I'm with Karen in the sense that what this does is it speaks to the whole trade, you know, overall. Because basically what's going on here is you have a lot of componentry that is part of this, you know, very large build out that's going on. Intel is symptomatic of it, but it isn't the best value in the space, clearly. I mean, what are we looking at? 7 plus billion probably in total adjusted net income on a more than $400 billion valuation now. I mean there are definitely a lot of other places that if one is going to try to press this trade that you could do it at a better valuation. Nvidia clearly is one of those, you know, and other names like Micron, I realize that those are commodities, but I think on the dram side. But I think what's going on here is that if you're trying to pursue this trade, you might as well do it in places where the valuations are a whole lower and then just you're sort of waiting for the slowdown because I think that's also going to come at some point.
- [06:46]
A
I mean, Micron, you see there, I mean, look, the difference between Micron and
- [06:50]
C
Intel, I mean, yeah, I mean, I don't think right now valuations, obviously they don't matter. But I mean, look at, look at Nvidia. Nvidia is cheaper than the market. It's got, it's got inside of a market multiple. So I just think this is a case where the ability of intel to control their costs, control essentially their, their, their production makes it again back to this total US story and a story that's very important right now in the world we live in. And there's all kinds of reasons that, that, that point to that. I just think the other part of all this, and it's, it's with some irony that yesterday's mega cap tech, and I do mean intel is, is part of the story that's getting today's mega cap tech back to the party. And for markets, this is extraordinary. I mean, this is a very big move. And today on a relative, we made a new relative high of the NASDAQ to the S and P. We've been waiting since July of last year to make relative highs. We all know that the Mag 7 was stuck in second gear and was downshifting. So I just think this is a really powerful message for the market at a time when we were in the middle of earnings season. We're still early. Five of those seven report next week. And, and you know, I don't know what they're going to do. I have a feeling they're going to be fine. But I do think that markets want to go a lot higher than they are.
- [08:07]
D
So two other chip makers that we don't think of that way. Not makers, creators. Google. Right. And Amazon. You know who you wouldn't have thought maybe that's part of an Amazon. It's just been on a complete tear. Google too, but maybe some of what's happening there is chip excitement for them as well. I mean, they are starting to get
- [08:28]
C
a lot less reliance.
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D
Right?
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C
Less reliance, less reliance.
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D
They not only they get chip customers, but they also reduce their own costs.
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A
Right?
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D
Yeah. So double benefits there. Maybe there's more to run in Google. All right.
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A
Meantime, the Justice Department dropping its criminal investigation into Fed chair Jerome Powell earlier today. CNBC Steve Liesman has got the details. So that's one step in the right direction. But there's still another big thing that we don't know about a couple of them.
- [08:53]
B
That's really. That's exactly right. Melissa. The U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia announced that she's dropping her criminal probe into Fed Chair Jay Powell in favor of a probe by the Fed's inspector general. And apparently clearing the way for the Senate to confirm President Trump's Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh. But there are some uncertainties still late in the afternoon today. Jeanine Pirro saying she's dropped the case but will not hesitate to restart the criminal probe. The White House saying it is confident the Senate will swiftly confirm Warsh. Tim Scott, head of bank committee, says he welcomes the IG report, but no comment on when there'll be a committee vote. And Senator Thom Tillis, who's blocking all this and the Fed have not had any comment yet. Unclear why Tillis hasn't commented on whether Pirro's move is enough for him to end his pledge to block Warsh while the criminal probe was still ongoing. It could come at any minute. Or perhaps he's concerned about Pirro's comment about restarting the probe. Those involved could want more formal assurances that the investigation is really over. Scott Alvarez, the former Fed general counsel, telling my colleague Matt Peterson earlier today. My guess is that there's some discussion going on with Piro's office to understand exactly what she meant by the last sentence in her statement. That's about not hesitating to reopen it. What kind of facts would cause her to reopen the investigation when she initially started it without any facts? Cashier prediction markets trade with an 85% probability, 86% there that Warsh is confirmed before May 15, the last day of Powell's term as chair. Not much concern there then that there's a real wrinkle in the process. All that would make next meeting, the one next week, Powell's last meeting as chairman. Melissa, I was just texting with a top criminal defense attorney. He said it is not normal practice for the DOJ to formally announce or put in writing that an investigation is over. He said it would be the decent thing to do, but it's not often done. Not the norm.
- [10:41]
A
Okay, well, I don't know how to read into that. Was she forced us to do that to clear this hurdle. But at the same time, if Senator Tillis main concern is preserving and protecting Fed independence, I'm not surprised he has not backed down.
- [10:56]
B
And whether or not that both Tillis and the Fed are waiting for some kind of formal assurance that may or may not be coming. It puts a wrinkle in this thing. So we'll see what happens. And whether or not Tillis is like, okay, her statement is enough, or are they concerned they might, you know, confirm Warsh and then go back to investigating Powell?
- [11:21]
C
Steve, I guess the question I have is, is what does this ultimately mean for what's been going on inside the Fed? And you know, boil in a little bit of your view on where we are with inflation and where the Fed is leaning. What we've heard from Minutes is that the Fed was pretty sanguine about the world of inflation. This is a Fed that's not going to get pushed around. So where does this leave the markets and your interpretation of the Fed posture right now?
- [11:45]
B
Well, the first thing is if you go back, you take a step back, Tim, and it's a really good question and you say what is preserving Fed's independence? It's a single senator who is leaving office and that that's what is giving him the courage to oppose the president. So I'm not sure the Fed and those at the Fed right now are taking much assurance right now that Congress of which to which the Fed reports that Congress has its back because it's only Tillis. Now, there may be some other senators who may not let this go through if there's a criminal probe going on, but that's one question as to how strong is the Fed's independence from the administration, the executive. As for inflation, I think the Fed is in a big wait and see mode. They want to see when this inflation comes through because it's going to come through. There's no way to have gas prices go up the way they have and not at least raise energy prices in the inflation indicator with the question goes on to the core. That's going to be April for sure and maybe May as well. And then if you look at the probabilities, Tim, it is fascinating to me that the market believes Wash is going to be Fed chair. But there is not much chance or not much pricing right now for a Fed rate cut all the way into July of 2027.
- [12:58]
A
Yeah, Steve, thanks.
- [12:59]
B
Pleasure.
- [13:00]
A
Steve Liesman, I mean, the war and what we've seen in terms of inflationary impact has really given cover to Kevin Wash to be not as beholden perhaps to President Trump in terms of feeling the pressure to cut.
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D
If he wants to.
- [13:14]
A
If he wants that.
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G
Yes.
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D
Right. I don't know if he. Right. I don't know if he wants to cut. I think he is, it seems more conservative and that this would be, yeah, the war and that labor seems to be doing okay. And that sort of lets.
- [13:27]
E
The dual mandate.
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D
Yeah, the dual mandate lets them say, all right, we don't need to do anything now for a while.
- [13:31]
C
Yeah, but to not, to not hike is also, you know, it's again, it's kind of like to not cut. In other words, it leaves a stance for the Fed. Look, there was, there was three weeks ago there was a view that the Fed might have to do an emergency hike and that's where the rates markets were messing around and we were actually, we were reporting about that. So I think, I think there is some cover here. I do think there's some inflation and one of the underlying stories of this week that we haven't spent a lot of time talking about all the job cuts that were announced by mega cap tech and big companies around the world. And I, you know, how can we not be looking at this as we get through earnings season? This is a great time with great numbers to talk about job cuts. I think we have more coming.
- [14:12]
A
Well, that's interesting because Kevin Wash has made the case that AI enhances productivity and so therefore inflationary forces aren't as strong. But at the same time on the other side of the mandate, it could actually impact the jobs market and create more layoffs. So it's sort of an interesting push and pull there. For more on the markets, let's bring in Andrew Davis, head of Macroeconomic research at Bryn Mawr Trust Advisors. Andrew, great to have you with us.
- [14:33]
H
Thanks for having me.
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A
We've had a single digit percent companies report on the S&P 500 and many of them have beaten. I'm just curious, what do you think we're going to hear? I mean so far we've heard a lot of the Iran war is an impact. We can't quantify that yet. And investors seem okay with that.
- [14:50]
H
Yeah, I mean taking a step back, I think that the market's proving resilient here but the hurdle rate has gotten higher so we're repricing to that. I think like we were talking about, the economy is stable, labor market still in this low fire, slow hire environment. So that's good. But things around inflation, geopolitical risks, energy prices, what it means for rates and ultimately that earnings are being really high. So look, I think that the market's really focused on its put up or shut up. I want to see the margins improving and I want to see that follow through and that's really what I'll be looking for, particularly next week. With Wednesday being the main event.
- [15:26]
A
Yeah. I'm curious what your take. I mean I know you don't talk about specific stocks, but in terms of the intel rally and what it means for the markets, what it says that the semiconductor trade seems to continue to be on fire and sort of be a leader in the Nasdaq, what's your take?
- [15:40]
H
Well, look, I mean it's basically hardware sell capital, light assets that that continues this year. But I think what's more interesting for me from a market breadth perspective is what's going on right now is the dispersion trade where the index volatility is not that high, but underlying there's a lot of volatility, individual names. That tells me it's a stock pickers market. There's a lot of opportunity there. If you pick right, but at the same time you pick wrong, you're getting punished. And again, I think it goes back to that wanting to see the follow through through margins, wanting to see that operating margin expand.
- [16:15]
E
So you talked about earnings being a tailwind to the marketplace. What I think has got lost in large order has been the tax cuts and the corporate tax cuts. How much credence do you give is that's the overall tailwind to keeping this market afloat?
- [16:30]
H
Well, I think that's the right question to be asking because right now we know we're in the sweet spot where this fiscal stimulus sugar high is still going. But it's going to start to peter out here even with the consumer. I'm looking at things like tax refunds. That's great. Right now it's offsetting some of the sting at the pump. But as we move into May, I think some of that goes away. So I think ultimately, like I've been saying, it's a selective market and you're going to want to focus on companies that actually have the fundamentals to follow through.
- [17:00]
D
So first of all, thanks for being here. How do you feel about the iwm, which has had some really significant outperformance even in market that you would have thought maybe would have left it a little bit behind.
- [17:09]
H
It was interesting because that had been rallying back off to the races. It was kind of fits and starts right before the geopolitical risk that was leading the market really telling me that the market was revising these growth estimates higher. Flash forward to where we are today. I was actually encouraged by what we saw today. I joked all's right in the world on the up days. The NASDAQ's leading. So I think we're Seeing some recalibration. I think money's getting recalibrated to opportunity. Where's the risk reward profile? Where's that cheaper valuations and what's providing maybe a little bit of growth tailwind because earnings are broadening out. If you look at kind of mag 7 versus 493 or even what's happening, it's starting to, to bubble up and, you know, broaden out. I think that's healthy for the market overall.
- [17:53]
C
Andrew, not that you folks at Bryn Mawr would be doing this, and I'm not being sarcastic, I'm saying. But there's. There's a sense that with the S and P is only up like 3 1/2 to 4% this year. It's maybe after today's close, it's closer to five, but it feels at this point after the last month that we're up 6 or 7 or 12% and there's clearly a lot of FOMO. Do you get the sense that the adviser community and the large institutional community that's representing pensions and endowments has been. Is concerned about having been offsides and been, you know, everyone, by the way, was very cynical and I'm just kind of curious about positioning here because it feels like we've had a massive rally already this year, but the index is only up 4% set.
- [18:36]
H
That's a great point. I think it's the right question to be asking. I mean, if you look at kind of this week in particular and the last several weeks. Right. The snapback that we've seen, I think it's just that participants, investors, not wanting to get caught offsides here, kind of buying into momentum. So I definitely don't want to fight that at this point in the cycle, especially with the earnings backdrop that we have next week. I think Mag 7, let's see what they can do, let's see if they can deliver. But as we move into the second half of the year, I completely agree that these geopolitical costs, not just on the energy side, like we're seeing diesel already come up, so that's going to feed through into the real economy, but also the supply chain constraints, what's happening there? So I think an interesting trade might be looking at areas of the market that were maybe tossed out. And again, being selective, you don't want to grab broad beta. But I think there might be opportunities, maybe things in like software where select names have been, you know, really discounted because of not wanting this, not wanting to own software in this environment.
- [19:39]
A
Andrew, great to see you thank you for coming by. Andrew Davis, Bryd Mawr Trust Mike, I'm curious. Once upon a time, if the markets were up this much into a big week of earnings, you'd see some profit taking ahead of time. But not this. Not so this time.
- [19:52]
F
Yeah. I mean, well, you know, it's interesting. I mean, there's a couple of ways we could look at this. We could say, well, it's been up extremely sharply in a relatively short period. I'm not going to say it's unprecedented, but maybe there's only a handful of times in the century where we've seen the kind of rapid appreciation that the S and P has enjoyed over the course of the last, you know, call it 15 sessions or so. You know, it's up about 5 including dividends. The S and P is up just over 5% year to date. That works out to about 15% plus annualized. Right. That's a pretty good rate. So I think what we've been witnessing is that, you know, we had this idiosyncratic event and you know, one thing also that we have to focus on when we're thinking about rates is that, you know, if we're going to see some inflation, it's not like the Fed can fix that inflation if it's related to energy prices by jacking rates. In fact, then you have two things at once coming from two sides constricting the economy. So, you know, I can see how Fed policymakers are kind of caught in this case. So you know, from my perspective, I think maybe look at some of the dividend payers because you have some cheap stocks in there. You also have some energy stocks in there. You kind of get an embedded barbell. And if you take a look at The Dow Jones 100 Dividend Index, that's actually up double digits so far this this year and that's actually a low beta play and it's trading at about a 10 year average multiple. So that might be a place that people could take a look to sort of balance out what's going on on the S and P and the and the high long duration growth side.
- [21:19]
A
Coming up, why Lilly's pain is Novos gain the disappointing numbers from the GLP1 leader that are giving its Danish rival a bump today. It's got the details next. Plus Alibaba unleashing its Quinn AI model on China's auto market. What the push could mean for top name stateside right after this. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back into
- [21:39]
I
this is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right Here on cnbc.
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A
Welcome back to Fast Money. Weight loss drug rivals Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly moving in different directions today after Lilly saw softer than expected demand for its new GLP1 pill. Lilly's Foundao saw about 3,700 prescriptions in the second week since its launch. That compares to the more than 18,000 novo got during its second week. Lilly reports earnings next week. But for no shareholders such as Karen and Tim, this is welcome news. Karen, you actually welcome news after a long time.
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D
Yes, I bought some today. I think it was interesting just looking over the last three years. A dollar in Lilly was worth $232.30. A dollar in Novo was worth 48 cents. However, in 2026, a dollar in each at December 31st is now worth a exactly the same 82 cents. Maybe this, this extreme chasm of differential in earnings has bottomed. I'd like to think that it has. I mean, I thought that though for a while I bought Novo higher than here as well. So at a, you know, 12 and change times versus Lilly at more than double that. Yeah, 26 times. Now granted, Lilly has a bunch of other things as well, and they've been sort of on an acquisitions spree, but those are relatively small versus the GLP1 market. So I just think the differential is just way too big. And I want to be longer, more Novo relative to Lilly.
- [23:13]
A
I mean, it is staggering to think that the stock price on Novo is almost the same as when it was before the GLP launch. I mean, like, it's, like it has no credit. What? Yeah, yeah.
- [23:24]
C
And again, I think Novo has time on their side. I mean, they're in a position to actually, I mean, they still have a market share lead. And if you think about, I mean, the headlines today are that Fundio is, is fighting to catch, you know, wegovy's pill. And you know, I think the, the, the efficacy dynamics in all of the trials that have made it seem as if Lilly was, was the better play. And certainly we, we know which stock has been the better stock. You know, at this point, to me, there's not even a question about it. And I think if you've been on the wrong side of the Novo trade, the, the, the charts are turning, but the valuation is now compelling.
- [24:02]
E
And if you look at it, what's odd is when you look at the year to date performance, just this year, Lilly's down 17%, Novo is down 19%. So erase everything, start from square one. Which one do you buy today? And I could make the case for Novo because I look at the charts, been in a declining trend line since June of 2024. But when you think of that rounding bottom, I think this is more of a trade versus a recovery in a catch up trade.
- [24:29]
A
Yeah. Mike, what's your take?
- [24:31]
F
I think it's more than a trade actually. I mean Novo is probably going to have better than 6 and a half percent free cash flow yield for full year, 20, 27 and 4% dividend yield. If you own the shares, essentially you're getting paid to wait at a very nice valuation with I think a reasonably solid fundamental backdrop. So I like Novo here.
- [24:53]
A
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [24:57]
I
AI is coming for cars. Alibaba unleashing its flagship model on China's auto market. What it means for top players in the US as the race revs up. Plus is the IPO market ready to pop? One venture capital investor says massive offerings from AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI could really shake up the market this year. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [25:33]
A
Welcome back to FAST Money. Alibaba shares driving higher today after announcing its AI model Quinn will be integrated into cars made by names including byd, Li Auto Geely and saic Volkswagen. The company said some models will allow drivers to order food delivery, book hotels, buy tickets and track packages from your car. Seems really useful. But this is a case for Alibaba's place in the trade in China and
- [26:02]
D
Alibaba's place in China. Right. I've been buying some recently. It's come down a lot, understandably so it also has this issue that we've seen a lot of companies here. The capex spend is enormous. What used to be huge cash flow, free cash flow is now not. However, still the balance sheet is extraordinary here and the valuation when you back up that cash is really not demanding as, as Guy would say. So I didn't know if you order the food to your car or if you're on your way home and you order it.
- [26:32]
A
Unless you, your house maybe unless the I can figure out where you'll be will be in like 20 minutes.
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C
I mean, you know, I don't know. I'd like to figure out where, where Alibaba is going to be in six months because this is a stock that's been at times had enormous momentum that was based on fundamentals and obviously under owned member China was, you know, you couldn't own it and this and that. The story around Alibaba is not about E commerce. The story is about cloud and it is about AI drivers. And clearly in the auto sector, in a world where I think ev kind of died down, the automakers are embracing the software thing. But I like Baba here too. I've been saying that for a long time. I think it was in everybody's acronym, maybe not Steve's, I don't know. Yeah, but you know, yeah, I think
- [27:16]
E
that, you know, to Tim's point on the bottom in April you wind up seeing a data center or cloud based bullish theme in the stock. It's rounded off a little bit. But remember, Trump and XI are going to be meeting in the next month. Anything could be the wild west or the wild Far east when you really look at the stock price. So just be careful how you're hedging yourself and taking your risk.
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F
Risk.
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A
Mike, do you think that that matters for Alibaba given that, you know, it's, it's largely domestic? I mean, is it sort of an inward facing company in terms of its businesses?
- [27:51]
F
Yeah, I mean I think you're insulated a little bit by the valuation. I think that's sort of a hedge in its own right. I mean, to Karen's point, because of the capex, you don't have quite the same free cash flow. I think they and Amazon both are probably running around a 1% free cash flow yield now, net of all of the the CAPEX index. But this is, you know, a 12% top line grower that's trading in the high teens. You know, at one point it was a buy it with both hands kind of situation where it was down around 1012 times. Now it probably 18ish, maybe not as much, but I still think it's on the buy rather than the sellers coming up.
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A
The IPO pipeline opening up in a big way this year. The mind blowing impact on the market when names like OpenAI, Anthropic and more go public. That next
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I
missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [28:52]
A
Welcome back to FAST Money. Stocks closing out. A mostly positive week on a mostly high note. The NASDAQ leading the gains thanks to the semi rally up more than 1.6% percent. The S& P also higher, both setting new record highs. The dow though dropped 80 points and finished the week in the red. And a pair of cable stocks plunging. Charter Communications down a whopping 25% after announcing it lost 120,000 Internet subscribers in its most recent quarter. It was the stock's worst day on record. Comcast, dropping nearly 13% after a downgrade at Deutsche bank, post earnings yesterday. Expectations for a wave of mega IPOs by the likes of Space X and OpenAI could add trillions of dollars in value to the stock market. But attention is already shifting to what will follow the new listings and how investors can tap into the next generation of space and AI innovators. Joining us on set for more is Alumni Ventures managing partner Laura Rippey. Laura, great to have you with us.
- [29:43]
G
Glad to be back.
- [29:43]
A
And actually we're speaking to you on a day where you saw an AI adjacent name go public. X Energy was your portfolio.
- [29:50]
G
Absolutely, yeah. So X Energy started trading today. It's a small modular reactor, nuclear reactor company. Pretty interesting because it's, you know, there's a whole stack of these. We've got 12 investments at alumni Ventures and Nuclear, so we're pretty close to it. And this is the first one to go public that was greeted, I think, with pretty strong response. Hot space. Super hot space. So we got in about a billion dollar valuation and I think it's about 10 billion now in terms of trading.
- [30:17]
H
It's on you.
- [30:19]
D
There you go.
- [30:19]
A
That's it. So the market has been open particularly to AI adjacent names. Quantum. You had a Quantum name go public last week, Xanadu. So there are certain hot pockets. Is that what we're going to see in 2027, beyond the big ones? I do.
- [30:33]
G
I think part of what happens with these big IPOs that we're seeing is that there also will be a wave of new startups afterwards, not just the ones that are going public. And that's, that's exciting. But then the next generation, it's sort of the, you know, if we remember the PayPal mafia or the Facebook mafia for SpaceX, for sure. We've already seen those, those startups happen. So it's the, the wave of the next public companies and then the whole sort of entrepreneurial ecosystem gets re energized when the IPO market starts because folks leave and start their own new companies with the capital that they get from being an employee.
- [31:08]
A
There is that lag, though.
- [31:09]
G
Obviously there's a little lag. So Space X is so interesting since it's been private for such a long time. Right. Over two decades. Some of those early employees have already started and begun to build companies. So we have a few of those. Impulse Space is one where it was the first employee at Space X, he was there for two decades. Tom Mueller, he started his own company after that. And now Impulse Space is big enough that, hey, they might be on that IPO path as well. So Space X, I think is a little different just because it's been private for so long and there's been a little bit of secondary action as well. And when folks get a little of that capital available, they see where they can go.
- [31:45]
D
So glad to see you in person. Congrats on the two IPOs. So when that happens, how do you think about managing the position in the portfolio from here?
- [31:54]
G
Yeah. So Alumni Ventures, just as a recap, we invest in venture backed companies. That's how our individual investors join us. We have about 11,000 of them.
- [32:04]
A
That's our charter.
- [32:05]
G
So as they go, the companies go public.
- [32:07]
A
We obviously are part of the lockup
- [32:08]
G
that everyone else is. And then we judiciously choose a path to exit because we believe that our investors chose us as our private markets expertise. And they can then take the decision of whether or not they want to repurchase that company once it's public. So we slowly exit carefully over a period of time with, you know, really measured reproach.
- [32:30]
A
How dependent do you think the portfolio companies that you have that are planning to go public, how dependent will will their reception in the public markets be based on how the bigger ones get received? Because I would imagine that the trading will be slightly different. These are companies that have been, you know, private for much longer. They have done a lot of private fundraising even into the IPO date. So it's not like a lot of price discovery.
- [32:53]
G
So let's come back to this and watch it. So it's a company called Hawkeye. They filed to go public, so they're not out yet. But it's a space company, really unique space company in that it uses RF signals to give defense intelligence. So here you have SpaceX going public at 1.8 trillion. And then you have Hawkeye that, you know, maybe will raise a couple billion dollars. They'll be smaller. What's that, Delta? I think you've asked a really great question, Melissa. We'll see where the sort of aura of the category brings to from the space category goes to that one. I think we will certainly see it in the nuclear space. So obviously X Energy coming out today, we have a queue of companies that are going to cross a really important finish line on July 4th. So you may not know this about nuclear, but President Trump had a executive order in the end of the summer that said there will be this line in the sand. On July 4th about criticality. And there's 10 companies that are racing to that. Probably, you know, the ones that get through that milestone, they could go public too. So then you'll have X Energy and others and it might bring the whole small nuclear reactor space, the smart space, into broader access to more people.
- [34:08]
C
And boy, you know, the world we've lived in. The Iran war tells us all why we need nuclear and also why we need space. Because it's, I mean, so if space, if Star Trek told us that space was the new frontier, where's the new frontier for you guys? Where, I mean, are you, are you, are you happy to stay in space?
- [34:24]
G
So space is about to have this unlock, right? So think about the cost of going to space. A decade ago, 1 kg, it cost $10,000 to get that kilogram into space. With SpaceX they've dropped it down to now 1,000 and now it's going down to as low as $100 on their plans. That parallel of the cost going down is just like what happened to cloud computing. When server costs went down. Suddenly we had an explosion of interest in cloud computing. So I do think let's not leave the space opportunity too fast. Right now it's a $625 billion industry. About three quarters of that is private, only a quarter is government. But it's projected. McKinsey projects it to go to 1.38 trillion by 2030. So you have this explosion of space interest because the costs are going down. And when you can get payloads from the earth into low Earth orbit and beyond, suddenly more things open up. Maybe you have manufacturing in space, maybe you need logistics. We have a few companies in that world. Communications.
- [35:35]
C
Fast money.
- [35:36]
G
Power. Fast money.
- [35:37]
A
Yes.
- [35:38]
G
Yeah, the next one will be.
- [35:39]
E
I'll be remote.
- [35:41]
A
Laura, great to see you. Thank you for having me. Laura Riffey, More fast money and to. Welcome back to Fast Money. More than half of the MAG7 reporting earnings next week. Microsoft, Alphabet, Metta, Amazon and Apple, all on the calendar. Amazon, by the way, closing at an all time high today. Shares are up nearly 27% already this month. Which of these heavyweights results are the most important? Karen, what would you venture to, to say?
- [36:11]
D
Oh, I don't know, I'm going to go with Alphabet. I mean they're sort of all over, you know, they're in search, obviously that's a gigantic part of the business for them. We'll see the evolution of search, which at the moment doesn't, you know, that fear that really had the stock in the mid-150s or so isn't there? And the growth in us, the growth we talked earlier about, the chip business, retail is just sort of an afterthought here. Even though it's an enormous business, the momentum here in the valuation is good. So I think the thing will be, are we going to see another re re round up of capex? Because every day there seems to be some other giant deal of tens of billions of dollars that. So that wouldn't surprise me and I'm guessing the market will be a little more complacent about that than it was maybe six months ago at this time to see a big ramp in CapEx.
- [37:07]
A
Yeah. Mike, what are the options markets anticipating?
- [37:11]
F
Some pretty big moves and actually I'm taking a look at Amazon myself. This one traded more than double its average daily call volume today. And the calls outpace the puts by about three to one. The options market implying a move about seven and a half percent for that one. And some of the activity there that I thought was kind of interesting was 29,000 of the June to 75 calls. We saw those trading for about 10 bucks. That's bullish bets targeting a move above 285. So that was one of the places that we're seeing some upside bets today.
- [37:45]
A
Okay, Tim?
- [37:46]
C
Well, I think Microsoft's kind of interesting here just given not only where it sits in the middle of this, this whirlwind around software but, but you know, we really need to get some understanding about where Copilot is and the estimates here. And because Microsoft I think is extremely attractive on valuation and I think it's Microsoft. I'm sorry, you know, I look at where, where they sit in the workspace but I mean on the enterprise side there's a lot we can hear from them. So I think of all of them and then obviously Apple with a new CEO common. Is there any glimpse as to change in status quo at Apple right now? I think the risk is to the upside in Apple.
- [38:22]
A
I mean given service now and IBM this week, I think Microsoft will be interesting to see how it. Yeah.
- [38:27]
E
And you know, there is a time when you have to bottom fish in the, in the SAS sea, so to speak.
- [38:33]
G
Right.
- [38:34]
E
So when you look at it, I've been willing to, you know, look a little more fondly at ServiceNow. When I look at Microsoft's chart, I see them trying to come back. But I wouldn't be buying that chart. I'd be buying probably the Amazon chart or the Google chart. But I think Karen nailed it the most Important thing is Capex and the trajectory of Capex going forward.
- [38:56]
A
Coming up, it's not just pot stocks lining up. The FDA clearing the way for psychedelic drug research will trip out on the numbers. Next, more fast money into. We've got some breaking news on the status of negotiations between the US And Iran. A spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign affairs posting on X a short time ago that Iran has arrived in Pakistan for an official visit, but that no meeting is planned between Iran and the US delegation which includes Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The spokesman says Iran's foreign minister will be meeting with high level Pakistani officials. So they're in the same place one side is going. I mean it sounds almost to him like, like, almost like cover for the US side to go and meet them at this point because nobody wanted to show up. The other side didn't show.
- [39:48]
C
I think that's right. And, and it's, it's just another one of these delays. Well, let's go have a meeting and let's give ourselves three more weeks and kind of pray something works itself out. The conversations that I'm hearing from transport analysts, especially those that are following shipping, are that there are zero ships going through the straits. There's zero. So as we've, it's been a big theme obviously in our conversation tonight about inflation.
- [40:12]
A
Meanwhile, psychedelic stocks rallying this month. Names like a Ty Beckley, Compass Pathways, Definium Therapeutics, GH research all seen double digit gains so far in April. The FDA announced today it is fast tracking psychedelic drug research for serious mental illnesses. CNBC's Brandon Gomez joins us here on set with all the details. Hi, Brandon.
- [40:30]
F
Hey, Melissa.
- [40:31]
J
Yes. Talk to the FDA commissioner this morning. Less than a week after Trump's executive order, companies studying three perception altering psychedelic medications will receive priority vouchers to expedite research. Now the agency also cleared an early stage clinical trial for a derivative of ibogaine which has much less safety data. Now that'd be the first time a compound like it has been authorized for human trials in the U.S. fDA Commissioner Marty Makari telling me this morning the U.S. is just playing catch up.
- [40:58]
C
The early data does look very interesting and we have seen a groundswell of new trials pop up in the last couple years. So this is a natural time for
- [41:10]
E
us to talk about psychedelics.
- [41:12]
J
Now Makari expects data to inform a decision by summer. This wouldn't be a prescription pharmacy type product but a closely monitored in facility treatment. This of course adds to yesterday's cannabis rescheduling, though we can discuss Tim, the extent to which that news actually was progress. These alternative treatments though clearly top of mind Melissa for the FDA and this administration inflation.
- [41:32]
A
So these stocks are relatively small. They are right? They're like under a billion or so.
- [41:36]
J
I think with these moves maybe the
- [41:38]
C
top is ties of billions.
- [41:40]
J
Yeah, yeah, about 2 billion.
- [41:42]
C
I'm long.
- [41:42]
A
Oh you are okay.
- [41:43]
C
Yeah. I mean I think the neuropsych kind of disorder space is I think we are overdue. I think there's so much going on there. There's so much efficacy and follow through and it's clear this administration. Yeah. These executive orders coming from the Trump administration around cannabis and psychedelics are well received probably by Main Street. I know that sounds controversial.
- [42:02]
A
Brandon, thanks. Good to see you, Gomez. Up next, final trades, Final trade time.
- [42:11]
F
Michael Koch, has it fallen enough? I'm not entirely sure. Novo Nordisk though. You're paid to wait, Timbo.
- [42:18]
C
I think Microsoft, you're paid to buy it. I just think the valuation makes some sense here. I think commercial cloud is going to surprise, at least in terms of the compounded growth rates over the next few years.
- [42:28]
A
Karen yeah.
- [42:29]
D
So next Wednesday I think a giant big tech party on April 29th. I'm going with the girl that brought me, Stephen S.L.
- [42:37]
C
green.
- [42:37]
E
I know it's not that sexy, but it does pay you to wait as well. Over a 7% yield.
- [42:43]
A
Thank you for watching Fast Money. Have a terrific weekend. Mad Money Jim Cramer Search Right now.
- [42:55]
K
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer.