
Intel on the move as results cross the wires, as memory chip stocks rally on reports of higher prices. Plus, how one derivatives strategist is navigating AI volatility ahead of Mag7 earnings, the jump in crude oil as new sanctions on Russia comes into focus, and the leap in quantum stocks as the White House reportedly eyes the space for its next equity stake. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
Live in the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Another big round of earnings. Shares of Intel, Ford and more, all on the move after their latest results. We'll dive into the details behind the action in these stocks and the next US Investment Quantum stocks surging even as the White House denies reports it's looking to take a stake in the industry. But what other groups could the administration look at and what will it mean for markets and the economy? Plus, Tesla claws back from deep in the red. Crude oil surges in its best days since June and a super slump for Supermicro. Why the chip maker didn't come along for the ride today. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with the intel popping in its first earnings report since getting an investment from the US government. The chip maker reporting adjusted third quarter earnings 23 cents a share. Revenues topping Wall street estimates. The conference call just getting underway, but Christina Parts Nevilles is here on set with details. And you just spoke to the CFO as well?
Christina Parts Nevilles
Yeah. So that revenue be really driven by products like ipc. Though the foundry revenue did fall a little bit short. I caught up like you said with the CFO Dave Zisner in just the last hour and he said intel is burning through inventory because the data center refresh is actually happening, quote, faster than anticipated. So he's saying that Supply could be constrained in Q1, quote, probably Q2, maybe even Q3 as companies really race to update their Windows operating system. So that was a very bullish comment. Shares talked about have jumped 85% this year, nearly all since August when the US government converted billions into of, of a grant into a 10% stake into Intel. Zisner said they are shoring up cash with this United States government government injection and partial Altera sale that happened in mid September. And then once in video pays their promised amount of $5 billion, they could have roughly $35 billion in cash. And with the United States government as Intel's biggest shareholder, I asked if they, you know, brief the government how said no pre briefings on numbers before earnings. But quote, we talked to them like any big shareholder and even give Fidelity as an example. He added, they're also making progress on advanced processes like the 14A but won't add supply until they have quote, real firm demand on the earnings call. They're not going to be making any customer announcements either. And so all of that you can see is just a bullish commentary this time around coming from management.
Melissa Lee
Any update on their most Recent architecture, the 18A and whether or not that's going to Panther Lake.
Christina Parts Nevilles
So Panther Lake, I asked specifically is Microsoft going to sign on? Because that was a rumor and he said that that was still just a rumor and it's still going to remain internal. To your, to your question, okay.
Melissa Lee
Why do you think everything. It seemed like demand turned on a dime. Like all of a sudden everybody wants to refresh, everybody wants to, you know, upgrade to new operating system.
Christina Parts Nevilles
Qualcomm has been saying that as well. If we talk about the PC and on the edge perspective and we've seen for Counterpoint Research, I think just in the last 24 hours the laptop sales have gone much stronger. So I think maybe it's finally starting to catch on that everybody wants to have the latest and greatest with the AI systems as well as Windows 10 which was launched. So they're finally seeing that. It's just, it's like you said, it's amazing. It's happening all of a sudden right now. Right, right when he gets a big cash, he. The intel company gets an cash injection.
Tim Seymour
Well so and how does this affect how we should be thinking about their rethinking of Foundry? So you know, suddenly this is now, you know, the understanding is that Foundry really is the answer to margin accretion and ultimately a place where this company needs to compete and really be US Semiconductor Ltd. What do we think about that. Are we getting any signs from the company? Because the strategic plan has been, everything's been put on the table. It seems like they flattened out the organization. But that rethinking Foundry seems to be the number one thing.
Christina Parts Nevilles
Well, one of the questions I asked is next week Nvidia is hosting a GTC event in D.C. and Nvidia did make an announcement of spending $5 billion and working with intel centers as well as PC chips. But I said are you going to make another announcement about the Foundry business now that Nvidia is on board? And he said no. So to answer that question, they're still working through all their troubles. The foundry business actually declined 2%. It fell short of estimates. So it's still an issue. It's still not profitable. I don't know what that means going forward other than the United, United States government is supporting them. So it's not like they're going to close the foundry business down under Trump's watch.
Melissa Lee
Right. Christina, thank you. Keep us posted on the conference call. Again, we're just about four minutes into the conference call at this point. The question going in here is the stocks run and the valuation of the stock.
Karen Feiderman
I mean the business was like up a couple percent or something like that. And though when you think about the demand that they're talking about when it comes to PCs and refresh, I mean half their sales almost is HP, Dell and Lenovo. So if you're talking about like laptops and PCs that need on the demand, like on the device, like I, Apple doesn't have on the device I like they're just going through this upgrade. So, so what I'm saying is, is like I'm not sure PCs need that. These are not high margin products as it is, you know what I mean, they have long lead times, that sort of thing. Why wouldn't you wait if you're a company to upgrade your hardware when you have some of the software that is really compatible? Because we haven't seen uptake of co pilots just yet. That's what Microsoft's been telling us over the last few quarters.
Dan Nathan
So we talked about, I think we collectively we thought this was an interesting stock, around $1920. That proved to be the case. I think we thought it could get to 36 and then fell. That's where we broke down from in July of last year. Well obviously it's through it now. Fundamentals I think start to matter. Quarter was fine on the EPS front revenue but revenue is only up 3% year over year which is Not a staggering number and the full year guide, given what Christine just talked about was not particularly robust. So listen, great for them. But valuation is going to start to matter in a meaningful way for a company of $40. It's probably trading, I don't know in terms of price to earnings. I mean it's got to be approaching 45, 50.
Tim Seymour
Just annualized this quarter's number and maybe that's fair, maybe it's not. They're going to lose money next quarter. So. You're right. Sorry.
Guy Adami
So the part where it was sort of an option where a lot of debt and not. Not a ton of equity, that's sort of long gone. I missed that. I think you guys may well on that but I was not now it's just, I mean good for them. They. It seems like they're really making some progress in what is a difficult endeavor. So still I just can't get on board. I'd rather, you know, self. Would you rather there. I do have some Dell exposure. Talking about Dell, you would think that this should be good for Dell. It's only up a little bit. So I kind of feel like this one. I've just missed the boat here and to get. I could guarantee you that if I.
Melissa Lee
Bought it tomorrow, it'd go down.
Guy Adami
It would go down.
Melissa Lee
Wedbush had a note out yesterday saying that the valuation is unsustainably high and said the EV to sales ratio right now, you haven't seen this since late 2023. And back then in 2023, their revenues, their gross margins, what they. That's already the estimate for 2027 and 2028. So you're really trading on, you know, what people are forecasting for years out at this point. And that's what it's trading at right now.
Guy Adami
Where was the foundry on that?
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I don't know. I don't think that that foundry was the drag that it is today.
Tim Seymour
And what's interesting about an EV2 sales is what's truly debt that they're taking on, what's truly strategic investment, what's truly equity, what's truly subsidy. Because at one point that government money was not debt and it wasn't equity and now it's equity and good for the government for making some money here. But that's what's fascinating because again, we know intel has a lot of debt. We know they've been burned through a lot of cash. But when I hear about SoftBank and I hear about Nvidia, I'm not necessarily hearing about debt. I'm Hearing about investment.
Dan Nathan
Yeah. Nathan was just pointing to his computer. He had a chart up and what he's looking at is the downtrend that's been in place now since December, the.
Tim Seymour
Spring of the reason why Dan's not telling us.
Melissa Lee
I know Dan is sitting right in.
Dan Nathan
Front of me because he's pointing because he did this thing, which means he didn't want to say anything.
Guy Adami
So don't bring him out of his shell, Miss, get him out of his shell.
Karen Feiderman
He's in my head.
Tim Seymour
No, no, no.
Karen Feiderman
Guy, go ahead please.
Dan Nathan
Downtrend that's been in place now for four years. We have just made the third price point of that downtrend line that I think is intact to the penny. To the penny.
Karen Feiderman
As our friend Carter Braxton works at.
Melissa Lee
The same time, we have been seeing a little pickup in semiconductors. Yesterday we had a downdraft kind of a day. But today is a little bit of catch up here. Intel could help support that story. But we also got this report from the Korea Economic Daily reporting that its two main chip makers, Samsung and SK Hynix were going to raise the prices of DRAM as well as NAND flash by about 30% in the fourth quarter so that there is strong demand there. And that while Citi and Morgan Stanley and you know, big banks were expecting a pickup in pricing that these major players are already putting that into place right now.
Tim Seymour
I think a lot of US investors are underinvested in Samsung because they don't know where they can buy it. Now it is in some ETFs, it's in some global ETFs. This is the largest memory chip maker in the world and I think one of the most important tech companies in the world. So it's great to hear the demand there because that's not something we've heard. And that gets us back to the total cyclicality of this sector. The cycle looks, looks pretty solid.
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, look at SanDisk SNDK pull that one up. I mean is up 14% today. A new all time high. You're seeing Western Digital Seagate. These are obviously all in the storage space. Micron has been trading really well. So they've gotten to these other components. I think, you know, it was pretty easy to focus on the hyperscalers and Nvidia a few years ago and now you have to kind of think a bit broader about who is exposed to this trade.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, we're going to hear from Western Digital I think on the 30th. So it's a next Thursday. I mean the valuation is not ridiculous, but highly cyclical. Do you buy these companies when they're cheap? Historically, that's the wrong time to buy them.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, let's get to two of last night's big earnings movers because they staged some pretty major reversals during the trading day today. IBM for instance, down more than 8% at the open after saying hybrid cloud revenue grew less than expected in its latest quarter, but it closed well off. The lows down less than a percent. Tesla same, down nearly 6%. Early trade. The EV maker missing profit estimates last night, but shares rallied into the green into the close, up more than 2%. So guy, you're flagging this. I mean, does it say anything about the broader markets? Just about these two stories in particular?
Dan Nathan
Well, there's a resilience to the broader market, 100%, but it's the stories themselves. I mean IBM, as we talked that we talked, I think we surrounded the trade pretty well last night. IBM and I think collectively we thought, you know, the quarter was, to me it was not commensurate with the move lower. I thought it didn't make a lot of sense. And this actually to 85 makes sense. I actually think they're operating really well. I think you can continue to own IBM here.
Guy Adami
We just talk Tesla for a second. I mean, so you know a lot about Elon getting on the conference call and making his pitch and I don't know if there was any bit of people thinking all right, he's going to be successful in getting what he wants. I'm not really sure if that is part of it because I still, I mean I've always thought this all along. I can't get remotely close to where it is right now. When you look at some of the other auto companies and I know this is not an auto company, that valuation definite differential is so huge. And we'll get to Ford later.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean I think the bull argument today that people are sort of rethinking was the notion that Musk yesterday said effectively Robotaxi, Optimus, all of that stuff that makes up most of the market cap of Tesla at this point, that's on track at least. So on track is not bad when you're thinking about the sort of sky high projections that Elon Musk usually has.
Guy Adami
But he's never on track even when he says he's always on track. Right. I mean he's been on off. I mean if he saw he was so confident about full self driving today, today 2025.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Guy Adami
When we've been Hearing about this for.
Tim Seymour
I don't know how many years version 19.
Karen Feiderman
And by the way, 12% of their owners here in the US actually have full self driving. All their competitors around the world are basically giving away for free. BYD has cars half the price of their low end and they're giving away for free. So if that's. But your point mel is at $1.5 trillion is not what people are buying this business for if you think about it. So what did they sell? They're going to sell 1.7 million cars this year is down a few hundred grand from a few years ago. I mean the business is not doing particularly well. So to justify this thing you got to believe in robots and robo taxi and sci fi stuff.
Tim Seymour
Well last night was the tug McGraw special and for you met fans out there guy know you are to believe you got to believe and that, I mean you got to believe in a lot. And I feel as if if we had to believe in EV and the Tesla like delivery story that when it was an auto company, remember it wasn't always an auto company, it really was an EV company where there was no competition. That was right, but there's now competition. Why isn't there competition in all these other places? That to me, if you believe that because they have so many cars on the road, because the data is not going to be something people can catch up to. I get it. But what we've seen at least with the hardware is that people have caught up. There's a lot of competitors out there, so it's not cheap. I don't know why you'd be buying the dream now when if anything it looks as if the dream keeps getting pushed out. That's, that's my tug.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, the CBO volatility index down today, ending at its lowest in nearly two weeks. But problems may still lurk under the surface. Manny Xu is the head of Derivatives Market intelligence for CBO Global Markets. Manny, it's always great to see you.
Manny Xu
Great to be here.
Melissa Lee
We've been remarking about sort of that, you know, on the surface everything looks calm on the index level, but then individual stocks seem to have crazy moves. And you actually note that the volatility in individual stocks is much higher than the index level.
Manny Xu
Exactly. So I think everyone looks at the VIX index as a measure of kind of broad market volatility. We also have an index for single stock volatility, vix, eq. And if you look at the difference between vix, EQ and vix, which tells you how much additional volatility is being priced into the single names that recently hit an all time high? Now that spread typically widens going into earnings because earnings is a driver of single stock moves. But the extent of that widening of the spread widening we thought was very notable and I think it kind of sticks. Speaks to this anxiety around earnings and valuation around some of the high flyer stocks and the tech names that we have seen so far this year.
Melissa Lee
You point out that the dispersion is is market in stocks like Apple and Amazon. I mean is there anything so. So the anxiety surrounding the earnings for those particular stocks are much higher.
Manny Xu
So the measure is market cap weighted. So it is much more driven by the large cap stocks as of course is the S and P. But to a point of the dispersion that is is definitely a theme that we've seen this year where you know, you get a lot of volatility at the single stock level. But because they're all uncorrelated, on any given day, certain sectors of certain sectors are down. As a result, the index level volatility gets very muted.
Guy Adami
Is there anything in that? That is some of the meme stocks which just have extraordinary volatility even though they might not be that big?
Manny Xu
Yes. So that is not reflected into the VIX eq. So the VIX eq, I would say the index, you think about it as a top 8,090 stocks in the S and P by market cap. So stocks like, you know, Open Door or maybe some of the other meme stocks, you know, that are out there, those volatilities would not be reflected into this index.
Dan Nathan
Andy, on October 16th, the Vix I think put a 28 at one point closed around 25. That was on a down day, but not a historically bad down day. And again, I think yesterday or the last couple of days we've seen the VIX spike. Something's going on below the surface.
Manny Xu
Exactly. So we've seen pretty meaningful shifts in terms of the positioning in the options market. I would say over the past, especially over the past week, we've definitely noticed a pickup in hedging demand. So investors actually buying downside protection, particularly going out to year end, kind of locking their year to date gains, kind of looking out ahead and seeing kind of the risks out there and the positive performance in stocks and looking at the levels volatility, like maybe this is a good time to start hedging. So we definitely noticed that shift in investor sentiment and positioning.
Tim Seymour
Mandy, how about correlation between the bond market and, and the equity market? So it really feels as if the treasury market's calmed down quite a lot and it's calmed down in a bullish tint. In other words, yields are going lower, but it' relatively orderly. It does seem to be, for good reasons, not bad. What is that? Does that, has that had anything to do with either equity side volume here or does it bode well for something we should be looking for?
Manny Xu
Yeah, I think what's going on the fixed income market is very notable. Not only have yields come down, as you mentioned, but yields have come down the same time inflation expectations are actually rising. So what the bond market is telling you is that the Fed is going to completely ignore any inflation risk and really focus on the softening in the labor market. And the market's getting very excited about this easing in policy. So real rates have collapsed this year and that's what assets cross assets, you know, trade on. And this loosening of financial conditions, which has been happening all year, even before the Fed started resuming cuts, that's been kind of underpinning a lot of the positive performance we've seen across asset classes.
Karen Feiderman
Manny, when you think about like a lot of volatility we see in markets has to do with a lot of data. We don't have a lot of the data. There's still, you know, trade stuff to be worked out here. We're going through earnings season. We have a Fed that's about to cut interest rates next week. I look out one month in the spy. Okay, so the ETF, the trucks, the S&P 500. I see options pricing, a 3% move in either direction. So if you want to buy an at the money call or an at the money put, it costs you one and a half percent of the index of the ETF to make that bet. Just talk to us about like where that stands. The way you think about. I know you've been looking at markets like this for a long time. Just seems kind of cheap, doesn't it?
Manny Xu
Yeah. So I think the, the low levels of volatility index volume, which we talked about, it means that the absolute premium for options, whether to the upside or downside, is going to be low.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Manny Xu
So that, I think that's why we've seen an uptick in option activity is people using that, those low levels to really express their views, whether bearish or bullish. You talk about one month out or three month out. If you look at Vix one day index, which looks at the next 24 hours. So we have CPI coming tomorrow, it's around like I think 80 basis points being priced in for tomorrow, which is really nothing. So not a lot being priced in for macro data, not really a lot being priced in in the horizon. And I think a lot of investors are taking a look at this situation and saying actually maybe this is a good time to hedge.
Melissa Lee
Mandy, always great to see you. Thank you so much. Manishu Sebo, are you in that camp? Take a look at the situation. Maybe now is a good time to hedge.
Guy Adami
Well that's, I mean yes, yes, I love hedging. I mean the VIX is a little elevated but I do for 80 basis points tomorrow that actually I'm not in the one day option game. But yes, I generally like to buy when premiums low.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, we got an earnings alert on Ford. The automaker turning higher after top and bottom line beats. The Labo has been all over the conference call. He joins us now at the very latest. Hey Bill.
Tim Seymour
Hey Melissa. When you look at Ford, this was a quarter that people expected after seeing the GM results. They said well if it was that good for gm, is it going to be as good for Ford? Look at what they did. Buck 45 a share, 9 cents better than the street was expecting. Revenue way above expectations for $4 billion. Above expectations, Q3 margin, 5.1% compared to 5.5% last year. That's the impact of tariff costs. And then there's the question of the novellas aluminum shortage. What's the impact of that? Remember that's the supplier in upstate New York where there was a fire at the aluminum plant. This plant supplies aluminum for the F Series trucks sales. It's going to be about 1.5 to $2 billion. And it also raises the question, well, is it going to hit F Series sales and if so, to what extent? Ford today saying look, we have the inventory so near term there's not going to be an impact. But what we're going to have to do is we're going to be increasing our production over time. So Ford will be adding 50,000 vehicles to its already existing production plan for F Series trucks, adding a thousand jobs, increasing production time at the F Series plants in Kentucky and in Michigan. And again, Ford says it already has the inventory in place for existing sales. So as you take a look at Ford, a couple other things to keep in mind. Shares of Ford initially went down but now moving higher after hours, the EBIT guide of six to six and a half billion. Only a half billion below where the company's previous guidance was for full year profitability. So that's the impact of the novellas fire and then their tariff cost, it's only going to be about $1 billion. Remember earlier this year they were saying it would be closer to two, two and a half billion dollars. But they've been able to mitigate those impacts. They already have the most production here in the United States of any of the automakers. And we also got the news from the White House last week that it's going to be extending offsets for auto parts that are being imported. So that is a cost win for not only Ford, but all of the automakers as they manufacture here in the U.S. melissa.
Melissa Lee
All right, Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau. We got GM earnings which were good. The stock reaction is very positive. We did a. Would you rather but now having the Ford results, I pose the same question because maybe that maybe it is different now GM or Ford.
Dan Nathan
I still go the GM route. I think it's just, I think it's a better company. I mean the Ford guidance, there's some things to be concerned about, I think. And listen to. Ford's been, we've talked about it. You go back 40 years. It's trading. Wherever it's trading right now is where it was trading 40 or so years ago. So we've seen this before. GM on your hand seems to have things figured out.
Tim Seymour
I love gm. I have a position in Ford, but I love gm. And we saw on the margin where GM continues. I continue to think the market is slowly giving them credit for their operational improvements in the margin efficiencies. The company's never been run better. They're handling the things they can handle. It's also interesting to hear both Farley and Mary Barra talk about how they think EV is in terms of the size of the market right now. They're like, relax, it's not, you know, they're almost talking back up the original internal combustion engine story, even though I know we'd like to see otherwise.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, supermicro sliding, why the stock is sending out today, semi rebound and whether it's a one off or sign of deeper troubles. Plus a big bounce in crude as the White House announces Russia sanctions, how the geopolitical pressure could impact oil as we head into the end of the year. Don't go anywhere. Fast money is back into.
Tim Seymour
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to fast money super micro dropping almost 9% after the chipmaker warned revenue in its current quarter would come in short of expectations $5 billion versus previous guidance of 6 to 7 billion. The company saying some orders would be delayed due to quote Design Win Upgrade shares are up 57% this year, but down more than 28% from their 52 week highs. They also came out, they reiterated their full year revenue outlook. So it's not like they're saying it's not going to come through, they're saying it's going to be delayed. The question is, do you buy that?
Karen Feiderman
Well, I mean listen, you know they're saying it's back half loaded. I mean like so they're going to push these sales out and if you look at just the revenue expectations on a quarterly basis, so this quarter is going to be 5 billion. It's supposed to be Q4 about 10 billion. I mean that, you know, that's a considerable ramp. And we're also spending a lot of time talking about what does it look like, what is the demand picture look like going forward. And if you start seeing some pushouts like this because design stuff, you know, who knows like how that's happening. So to me, I don't. I think you've got to take it with a grain of salt, less than.
Guy Adami
A grain of salt, I think. I mean, you know, there's some management teams, if they were to come out with something like this, you might say, all right, they deserve a pass, right? I'm not, I don't feel that this is one of them. So I don't know what the right amount, that it should be down, but it should definitely be down.
Melissa Lee
I mean, remember just in August when they reported their quarter in August, they said that they didn't have enough money to ramp production as fast as they wanted to in the stock. Had a major haircut. I mean, like it's, it's been sort of a rough ride for supermicro shareholders.
Tim Seymour
Real rough ride. 16% short interest. I'm sure this, this emboldened folks to go back into the short side of this trade.
Dan Nathan
Karen's right. I mean, they should have far more clarity or visibility than they seemingly have. I mean, this is not. You just said. I mean, it's not the first time we've heard tape bombs like this before. So you can't give them the benefit of the doubt at this point. I don't think.
Melissa Lee
All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
Tim Seymour
Crude making a comeback, the major moves in the oil patch and the stocks best positioned to benefit. Plus a quantum leap at the White House. The names seeing a power surge on speculation of a US Investment and the sectors that could be next. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. It's Cybersecurity awareness month and LifeLock is here with tips to help protect your identity. Use strong passwords, set up multi factor authentication and report phishing scams. And for comprehensive identity protection, Lifelock is your best choice. LifeLock alerts you to suspicious uses of your personal information and also fixes identity theft. Guaranteed or your money back. Stay smart, stay safe, and stay protected. With a 30 day free trial at lifelock.com specialoffer terms apply.
Melissa Lee
CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them now at cnbc.com/changemakers welcome back to FAST Money. Stocks bouncing back from yesterday's drop. The dow up almost 150 points. The S and P climbing more than half a percent in the NASDAQ up nearly 910 of a percent. Some morning earnings reports moving stocks Honeywell and American Airlines higher after EPS and revenue after beating EPS revenue expectations. T Mobile also beat but fell 3% today. Shares of Molina Health meantime plunging 17%. The managed care firm slashing its annual earnings guidance for the third time this year due to higher costs across government backed plans and Freeport McMurray and higher after beating earnings expectations driven by higher copper and gold prices. And we do have some more after hours action to report. Norfolk Southern topping EPS estimates but missing revenues deckers lower despite topping expectations lowering its full year revenue and EPS estimate forecast in Newmont Mining posting better than expected results as well. So the metals trade seems to continue to be on fire.
Tim Seymour
Tim yeah, I think so. I think industrial metals are a place to be. I love PGMs more broadly and so we'll leave gold alone for today. But I, I, we talk about copper, we talk about the thematic exposure it has to grid build out to AI data center, all that but then you just get into supply dynamics which are really interesting. The copper chart, a lot of volatility but that's still, it's not the gold chart but it's still a three year uptrend that's held on the way and I think the earnings power for Freeport Southern Copper, you name it solid.
Dan Nathan
Agreed. New my mining is probably lower on the back of this only because that's what it typically does. But it doesn't mean you should run away here. The mining stocks obviously double the losses of gold the other day which makes sense. But Tim said it last night. I'll say it again, this mining trade is not over.
Melissa Lee
Molina.
Guy Adami
Karen yeah, yuck. Thankfully I don't own it but so there's a lot to not like here. Missing again and again. That's always something bad because then you don't know what to think. And then how do you put a multiple and I don't know what to think. Right. It's difficult to own the stock. But also the broader, you know, the ACA issue is a really big one.
Melissa Lee
Yes.
Guy Adami
Right. And their medical loss ratio was a giant miss. So you know looking at something like a centene or an Oscar also not doing well. But this is you know if it's a black hole like this, I could just stay away.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, for Elevance, the read through is kind of small. I mean elevance has less exposure, less exposure to its ACA program.
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
Guy Adami
But you know, I do get concerned when medical loss ratios in general go up. But I think the elevance United Health a little different.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, quantum climbing. The White House could be eyeing the group for an equity stake. What it means for the space, what industries could be next. More fast money to.
Tim Seymour
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to fast money. Quantum stocks, D wave Rigetti, quantum computing and IonQ all jumping today after a report the companies are in talks with the Trump administration for equity stakes in exchange for federal funding. The Commerce Department denied the report, but the administration has already made investments in many other companies, including intel and MP Materials. The news though got us thinking, which other industries could the White House invest in? Joining us now is Phil Lock, the economics program director at the center for Strategic and International Studies. He was deputy chief economist for the State Department in the Biden administration. Phil, great to have you with us.
Tim Seymour
Great to be here.
Melissa Lee
First, I want to talk about a little bit about the strategic thinking about quantum and it's great to make that sort of investment in quantum, but there's a whole lot behind it to make sure that that investment can actually come to fruition in terms of advances in computing.
Phil Lock
Yeah, absolutely. I mean there's really good both economic and strategic reasons for the government to be investing in quantum technology. Quantum computing and quantum encryption is going to be really important in the decades ahead. But you know, this is a technology that's not ready for market. So this is a type situation where, you know, this is a situation where R and D investments in workforce, really basic things are really where I think the government should be thinking about spending its money.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. So not just plunking money into an equity stake. In other words, there's a lot that goes behind it as well. When you're thinking about how the how the government has been viewing what is strategic and how they are going after equity stakes, what comes to mind in terms of what could next be on the list.
Phil Lock
So I mean they've been in some ways looking at a pretty similar list to the last administration, which is looking out at the sort of landscape of technologies, seeing ones where we need these technologies for sort of our own health, biotech and things like that take are a good example or things where they proliferate through our technology. Semiconductors is a great technology, is a great example. Rare earths and critical minerals just everywhere and everything we use. Quantum is a different case where this is going to be in some sense a sea change in how we do computing and what we can and can't see. I mean, just in real layman's terms, because I'm just an economist, not a scientist here, methods of encryption are really at risk if we get quantum or our adversaries get quantum. So then we'll need a new type of encryption. So things like that. And again, for the economic arguments, you know, there's a lot of different reasons why you would want to make sure you can sort of keep a lead here.
Dan Nathan
You know, Phil, the most important commodity in the world people will say is crude oil. But I actually think, and Tim might agree with me, it's copper. And you know, there's going to be some security risks around copper and the availability of copper. Is that something that you're thinking about?
Phil Lock
Absolutely. I'd say two things. You were exactly right. And copper is incredibly important. If you want to modernize our grid, if you want a grid that can support data center build out and sort of the type of compute that we're going to need, you're going to need a heck of a lot of copper. But at the end of the day, copper is a commodity. It's pretty freely traded and it's not overly concentrated. What I would say is probably the most important commodity, especially for things like quantum, other technologies is talented. This is people. You know, we have basically for every three quant, for every three jobs in Quantum, we have basically one homegrown person to fill those jobs. So if we want to take the lead in these areas, if we want to build fabs, if we want to advance in quantum, if we want to build ships, we need people with specific skills.
Tim Seymour
Phil, not a political question at all. What do you think about the government taking stakes in companies at this point? This seems different. Different than other administrations. Let's talk about it purely from the strategic sense, if that's possible.
Phil Lock
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, entirely apolitically. I don't think it's the best way to do this, honestly. You know, I think the market, we have an incredibly deep capital market. I think the market's very good at figuring out, you know, where to put, where to put capital and where to invest in equity. I think what government does well, what government should focus on doing is solve the problems that markets don't solve, which is investing in R and D that has these really big spillovers, making sure that we're investing in things that have really big strategic implications. Markets aren't great at like pricing in national security. So you know, I think for, to me it just, it'll, it could work. If you throw enough money at things, it can work. It just doesn't seem like the best way to achieve the goal we're trying to achieve.
Melissa Lee
Getting back to the notion that people, you know, that's you need the people to sort of back all of these investments. Phil, you actually put forth in a paper published on the CSIS website that there should be a strategic sort of visa, which I think is sort of an interesting approach to this, that we should look at bringing in strategically the right people into this country and having that sort of reserve of talent.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, absolutely.
Phil Lock
I mean we have skill based visas. We generally though have them pretty agnostic. It's not really a function of sort of what sectors or what geographies or things like that. Look, we're in a new world where we've decided that certain technologies, certain industries are incredibly important us to invest in and have capacity. And we've put a lot of money behind that. We've restricted the trade in those goods for those reasons. It just makes sense to me personally that, you know, let's prioritize those sectors for talent as well. Again, whether it's quantums or semiconductors or biotech or any number of things, you know, why don't we have an immigration policy that sort of allows us to, you know, to me, you know, magnify one of our great superpowers, which is people want to come here and work in this really dynamic economy. Let's use that to our advantage.
Melissa Lee
Phil, great speaking with you. Thank you so much.
Phil Lock
Thanks so much.
Melissa Lee
Phil Luck of csis. I mean we've seen the examples time and time again. The administration invests, the stocks go up like that. It's an interesting thought to think what is beyond that investment? Once you put the money in, you need the talent to back it up too.
Guy Adami
Yeah.
Tim Seymour
I mean if we were calling the government a, some type of a private equity investor. It's growth capital right now. They're not vc. They're not. I mean, you know, you can make an argument, rare earths that there's. You're, you're further, you're earlier. But what we are seeing in the case of intel is a company that needs an enormous amount of capital to do what needs to be done strategically. This has been rewarded by the market. The view is also investing in strategic sectors is something that is the right place to be, even though that has not worked in the past.
Dan Nathan
Look, you want, that's fine. Quantum is the thing, I get it. But look at the value. And I'm not, I'm just picking this out of the blue. But it's not. Rigetti is going to do 20. I'll round up to $25 million with an M of revenue next year. It has a market cap of approaching $13 billion. I mean, that's a staggering, staggering valuation at the mark. So if the government wants to invest, that's fine. Understand though, the valuations are ridiculous.
Guy Adami
That's a really good question. I don't know if that's the valuation that the government. Right. It might be a very different number for them. They might just say this is what we're paying. Which, you know, we're sort of free market capitalists here. So that's somewhat problematic. But I definitely would rather have them have a stake in intel than give the money to intel for free.
Karen Feiderman
Yeah, I guess at the end of the day it's like it is funding their R and D. Right. And so there's two ways to think about it. If the company wants to go raise capital, they could see sell equity, it would be dilutive and they could sell it to the government. I mean, I agree on the capitalism. The markets are good at rooting out unproductive capital. Right. So this is probably the opposite of that. And we just don't know. There's going to be a lot of companies that are basically, they have support that maybe should go away. Right. And that's why the stock market or the markets generally work well. You start picking winners and losers and I think things come unhinged a little bit.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, action the oil pass the headlines behind today's big move in crude and what is next for the energy sector. Fast money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Oil prices jumping today after the Trump administration announced sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Luke Oil. WTI more than 5.6% its best day since June. The Oih Oil Services ETF gained over 5% for its highest close since February. And of course Oih is the E in Karen's acronym. Makes a lot of sense, but you know, you're having proud holder today.
Guy Adami
Yes, yes, well, proud and I think it is actually now up for the year. So that's really nice. You know, I think that things were maybe going to turn anyway, I really do. But I've thought that for a while. So I wouldn't be surprised if this fades in the, you know, near ish term. But I think a floor might be in.
Tim Seymour
My first reaction was I thought the energy, the stocks were underperforming the, you know, the commodity. And I thought, wow, this is not sustainable. But as you said, I mean, you get to a place where I guess now we call it slb. But Schlumberger or some of the other oil services companies have been so battered, although they've had a very steady rise off those April lows. So I do think energy is a sector one should stay committed to. It doesn't need to be significantly more of a weighting in your portfolio than it is in the S and P, which means it's 4% or something like that. But energy has a way of suddenly giving you a 70% year when you weren't expecting it because the fundamentals are ultimately do win out. And I think some of these stocks are starting to look interesting.
Melissa Lee
SLB was your final trade. You pay attention to SLB yesterday. Yes.
Dan Nathan
How can that be in my tube?
Tim Seymour
Because it would be. Karen plays the game.
Melissa Lee
I mean, it could be for energy. Okay, that's where you want to go.
Guy Adami
That's fine. Go ahead.
Dan Nathan
You can't put that much stuff in my. I mean the tube is what it is.
Tim Seymour
Well, I mean it could grow.
Melissa Lee
Seems full.
Tim Seymour
Bearish.
Melissa Lee
It's already full.
Dan Nathan
The bullish reversal in both Halliburton and SLB Corp. So yes, stay with it.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, the betting bombshell out of the NBA. The latest on the FBI gambling probe and the impact it could have on the sports betting stocks. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer fam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of industrial manufacturer Dover. Catch a full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More fast money in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. A big blow to the NBA just days after the season started. The FBI arresting more than 30 people in connection with a Mafia linked gambling and sports rigging operation, including Portland's head coach Chauncey Billups and the Miami Heat's Terry Rozier. And the implications could stretch even wider. Contessa Brewer's got all the details here. Contessa.
Christina Parts Nevilles
Okay, so Melissa, you've got trailblazers coach Chauncey Billups expected in federal court in Oregon any moment, accused of legitimizing underground poker games organized by the mafia to cheat unsuspecting gamblers. Miami Heat player Terry Rozier and former Cavs player Damon Jones also arrested. But Rozier and Jones were Also among six defendants charged in a sports betting scandal. Separate investigation, profiting off wagers made on inside information. And worse, that is, they were throwing games. All this coming from the original investigation into John Tay Porter's scandal last year with the Trailblazers. Remember, he has a lifetime ban from the NBA. Well, DraftKings and FanDuel reiterated to me their commitment to reporting suspicious activity to law enforcement. They definitely do not want outraged gambling regulators to crack down on player props, which make up a significant part of the parlays that drive profits for the sports books. And they want to keep expanding. They still are out of California and Texas, the two most populous states. And a black eye on sports gambling, no matter where it's coming from or who was involved. It just doesn't help, however, if it prompts enforcement against unlicensed operators. Well, that might be a competitive win for the gaming companies. After all, unlicensed gambling is estimated to bring in wagers of $674 billion annually in the U.S. fanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, MGM, they would all like to have a piece of that illegal action.
Melissa Lee
Why then did DraftKings stock basically not move on the back of all this?
Christina Parts Nevilles
They had moved so much yesterday on the announcement about acquiring railbird, which is going to be their prediction platform. And there's been a lot of punishment from investors as Kalshi has moved forward and offered now combine your bets. You know, it's their sort of don't call it a parlay product on Kalshi that they. There were investors that punished DraftKings for it. DraftKings made up some ground with the Railbird acquisition.
Dan Nathan
Great job by you as always. I think you alluded to this. This could actually be a great thing for the publicly traded gambling companies, if you think about it, the regulated ones, the ones that have the ability to monitor what goes on, especially if there's a crackdown on all the sort of the underground gambling that's going on.
Christina Parts Nevilles
But what kind of a yahoo who wants to throw a game is going to a regulated licensed sportsbook to do it? I mean, and this is what happened with Johnte Porter. They were using real licensed sportsbooks to make player prop bets to say, oh, let's give him the under, because they had inside information that he was going to walk out of the game with an injury. And the same thing happened with Terry Rozier, that he walked out of a game nine minutes into it. And people knew ahead of time. According to prosecutors, this is what they allege, that they had wagered $200,000 on that and then profited tens of thousands of dollars that it got split up among the people who were doing the gambling and Roseier himself.
Melissa Lee
So they deserved it to be caught.
Christina Parts Nevilles
I mean, there's a great line in the indictment against the poker players and it says the gamblers basically were going in and they expected a straight illegal poker game. So you expect a, you expect an illegal poker game to go perfectly normal and not have, you know, a card shuffling machine that's been doctored or cameras in the lighting fixtures and, you know, all these ways that they were beating the system and taking these chumps for millions of dollars.
Melissa Lee
Is there thinking that this is at the early stage like that there's going to be so much other stuff?
Christina Parts Nevilles
Yeah, because they're, they're, they're learning when they go in and they start doing the investigation, they're learning more about who's saying what in public, who's using that information to their benefit or to the detriment of the. So are there going to be others? Yeah. In fact, the prosecutor said that today our investigation is continuing. This is massive in it's crossed 11 states. It involved at least wagers on at least four teams.
Melissa Lee
So sorry, how do you view this and then translate that into your DraftKings holding?
Tim Seymour
Well, I think this ultimately does speak to the fact that like so many things we talk about on the show, bringing it into a regulatory environment is, is, is good for the industry. And it just seems to me that is outweighing what is at, you know, uncertain here.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Contessa. Thank you, Brewer. Up next, final trades, final trade time.
Tim Seymour
Timothy it's been kind of a surprising run for the US Automakers. I am long gm, but I tell you what, I have a position in Ford and it's going higher.
Melissa Lee
Karen.
Guy Adami
Yes, you are. I love the company. Did not love that expense margin pressure today. If you're looking for a place to get in, wait at least three days on this.
Melissa Lee
Dan.
Dan Nathan
Sure.
Karen Feiderman
Nike looks like it's poised to go back towards those post earnings high 75 bucks guy contests.
Dan Nathan
Talk about yahoos and Chuck, first time.
Tim Seymour
Yahoo and I like Yahoo.
Dan Nathan
Yahoo is a good one, isn't it?
Melissa Lee
Yahoo has been said on this show before.
Dan Nathan
Well, yeah, in the context.
Melissa Lee
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Date: October 23, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
This episode dives into the latest earnings reports, a sharp focus on Intel’s results following recent U.S. government investment, the surge in “quantum” stocks amid rumors of potential government equity stakes, and a lively roundtable on market volatility, autos, metals, and the impact of an NBA sports betting scandal. Host Melissa Lee is joined by her regular panel for deep market analysis and rapid-fire opinions.
with Manny Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, CBOE
Melissa Lee, on valuation excess:
“You’re really trading on what people are forecasting for years out at this point. And that's what it's trading at right now.” (07:33)
Tim Seymour, on government investment:
“If we were calling the government a... private equity investor, it's growth capital right now. They're not VC.” (36:42)
Phil Lock, on government’s proper role:
“Markets aren't great at pricing in national security. So... it could work, if you throw enough money at things, it can work. It just doesn't seem like the best way to achieve the goal we're trying to achieve.” (34:25)
For a fast-paced, in-depth look at actionable market news, this episode delivers trader wisdom, sector analysis, and incisive debate in the classic "Fast Money" style—direct, opinionated, and tuned to what matters most to investors.