Podcast Summary: CNBC "Fast Money" — Intel Reports Results…And Quantum Leaps As U.S. Eyes Next Equity Stake

Date: October 23, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the latest earnings reports, a sharp focus on Intel’s results following recent U.S. government investment, the surge in “quantum” stocks amid rumors of potential government equity stakes, and a lively roundtable on market volatility, autos, metals, and the impact of an NBA sports betting scandal. Host Melissa Lee is joined by her regular panel for deep market analysis and rapid-fire opinions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Intel’s Q3 Earnings Report & U.S. Government Investment

• Intel’s Earnings Beat: Intel reported adjusted EPS of $0.23 and revenues above Street estimates in their first report since significant U.S. investment.
• Inventory Dynamics & PC Refresh:
  • Christina Parts Nevilles details on air her discussion with Intel’s CFO, Dave Zinsner. Intel’s rapid inventory turnover is due to a data center refresh moving “faster than anticipated,” fueled by Windows operating system upgrades and AI chip demand.
  • Zinsner notes, “Supply could be constrained in Q1, probably Q2, maybe even Q3 as companies really race to update their Windows operating system.” (01:57)
• Government Stake & Cash Position: Intel’s shares are up 85% YTD, nearly all since the government converted a grant into a 10% equity stake. They now expect ~$35B in cash once all promised funds arrive.
• Foundry Business Update: The foundry segment remains a challenge: “The foundry business actually declined 2%. It fell short of estimates. So it’s still an issue. It’s still not profitable.” (04:44)
• Valuation Debate:
  • Dan Nathan: “Revenue is only up 3% year over year, which is not a staggering number, and the full year guide... was not particularly robust.” (06:09)
  • Melissa Lee cites Wedbush’s view: “Valuation is unsustainably high... you’re really trading on what people are forecasting for years out at this point.” (07:33)

Notable Quotes:

• Christina Parts Nevilles: “We talked to [the government] like any big shareholder and even give Fidelity as an example.” (01:57)
• Tim Seymour: “What’s truly debt... what’s truly equity, what’s truly subsidy? At one point that government money was not debt and it wasn’t equity and now it’s equity and good for the government for making some money here.” (08:05)

2. Broader Semiconductor Sector & Supply Chain Trends

• Rising DRAM/NAND Prices: Samsung and SK Hynix to increase DRAM and NAND prices by ~30% in Q4.
• Catch-Up Across Chips:
  • Karen Feiderman: “Look at SanDisk, up 14% today... Western Digital, Seagate, and Micron all trading really well.” (10:01)
  • Tim Seymour: “A lot of US investors are underinvested in Samsung... The cycle looks, looks pretty solid.” (09:40)
• Supermicro Warning: Company misses revenue estimates for the quarter, citing order delays. Panelists skeptical about management’s visibility.
  • Karen Feiderman: “They’re saying it’s back half loaded... this quarter is going to be $5B, supposed to be Q4 about $10B. That’s a considerable ramp.” (25:17)
  • Guy Adami: “You might say, all right, they deserve a pass. Right? I'm not, I don't feel that this is one of them.” (25:46)

3. Tesla & IBM: Post-Earnings Reversals

• Tesla’s Bounce: Initially down after a miss, Tesla reversed into the green.
  • Guy Adami: “To justify this thing you got to believe in robots and robo taxi and sci fi stuff.” (13:02)
  • Karen Feiderman: “12% of their owners here in the US actually have full self driving. All their competitors around the world are basically giving away for free.” (12:33)
• IBM Discussion: Despite a less-than-stellar quarter, panelists view the price drop as overdone, see IBM as reasonably valued.

4. Macro Market Volatility & Options Activity

with Manny Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, CBOE

• Volatility Divergence:
  • Manny Xu: “The volatility in individual stocks is much higher than the index level... that spread recently hit an all time high.” (14:13)
  • “We've definitely noticed a pickup in hedging demand... particularly going out to year end.” (16:06)
• Cheap Options?:
  • Karen Feiderman observes S&P 500 options are only pricing a 3% move over the next month: “Just seems kind of cheap, doesn’t it?” (17:31)
  • Xu: “That’s why we’ve seen an uptick in option activity is people using those low levels to really express their views.” (18:14)

5. Ford vs. GM: Automotive Sector Earnings

• Ford’s Results: Strong beat, but margin and production concerns highlighted.
  • Inventory is in place to weather supply issues from the Novelis aluminum plant fire.
• GM vs. Ford:
  • Dan Nathan: “I still go the GM route. I think it’s a better company. Ford...wherever it’s trading right now is where it was trading 40 or so years ago.” (21:42)
  • Tim Seymour: “The company's never been run better. They're handling the things they can handle.” (22:01)

6. Quantum Stocks Surge: U.S. Equity Stakes?

Speculation:

• Quantum computing stocks (D-Wave, Rigetti, IonQ) surge after rumors of potential government equity stakes, despite Commerce Department denials.
• The panel brings on Phil Lock (CSIS, former Deputy Chief Economist, State Dept.) to discuss the rationale and risks.

Strategic Rationale (Phil Lock):

• “Quantum computing and quantum encryption is going to be really important in the decades ahead. But...this is a technology that's not ready for market. So...R&D investments in workforce, really basic things are where the government should be thinking about spending its money.” (31:33)
• Government tends to invest in techs with broad importance: semis, rare earths, biotech, quantum.

Commodity & Talent as Strategic Assets:

• Phil Lock: “If you want a grid that can support data center build out...you're going to need a heck of a lot of copper. But...probably the most important commodity...is talent. For every three jobs in Quantum, we have basically one homegrown person to fill those jobs.” (33:29)

On Government Equity Stakes:

• Phil Lock: “We have an incredibly deep capital market. I think the market’s very good at figuring out where to put capital...What government does well...is investing in R&D that has these really big spillovers.” (34:25)
• Also proposes targeted "strategic visas" to help fill talent gaps in strategic industries.

Valuation Warning:

• Dan Nathan: “If the government wants to invest, that’s fine. Understand though, the valuations are ridiculous. Rigetti is going to do...$25 million of revenue next year. It has a market cap of approaching $13 billion. That’s a staggering, staggering valuation...” (37:13)

7. Metals, Oil & Geopolitics

• Copper & Industrial Metals:
  • Tim Seymour: “We talk about copper, we talk about the thematic exposure it has to grid build out to AI data center... interesting supply dynamics... The copper chart...a three year uptrend that's held.” (28:48)
• Gold & Mining Stocks:
  • Dan Nathan: “This mining trade is not over.” (29:17)
• Oil Price Spike:
  • U.S. announced sanctions on Russian oil (Rosneft, Lukoil), WTI jumps 5.6%.
  • Tim Seymour: “Energy has a way of suddenly giving you a 70% year when you weren't expecting it because the fundamentals are ultimately do win out.” (40:07)

8. NBA Gambling Scandal & Impact on Betting Stocks

Scandal:

• FBI arrests NBA coaches and players linked to mafia gambling and sports rigging (e.g., Chauncey Billups, Terry Rozier).
• Contessa Brewer: "DraftKings and FanDuel reiterated to me their commitment to reporting suspicious activity to law enforcement. They definitely do not want outraged gambling regulators to crack down on player props..." (41:17)
• Public betting companies mostly unaffected so far as investors expect regulation to benefit established, legal operators vs. illegal bookies.

Analyst Take:

• Dan Nathan: “Could actually be a great thing for the publicly traded gambling companies... especially if there’s a crackdown on... the underground gambling that’s going on.” (43:25)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Melissa Lee, on valuation excess:
  “You’re really trading on what people are forecasting for years out at this point. And that's what it's trading at right now.” (07:33)

• Tim Seymour, on government investment:
  “If we were calling the government a... private equity investor, it's growth capital right now. They're not VC.” (36:42)

• Phil Lock, on government’s proper role:
  “Markets aren't great at pricing in national security. So... it could work, if you throw enough money at things, it can work. It just doesn't seem like the best way to achieve the goal we're trying to achieve.” (34:25)

Timestamps for Segments

• Intel Earnings Analysis & Government Investment: 01:01 – 09:09
• Semiconductor Cycle, DRAM/NAND Updates: 09:09 – 10:21
• Supermicro Revenue Warning: 24:49 – 26:33
• Tesla and IBM Post-Earnings Moves: 10:32 – 13:48
• Market Volatility w/ CBOE’s Manny Xu: 13:48 – 18:47
• Ford and GM Earnings Discussion: 19:12 – 22:32
• Quantum Stocks Surge & Interview w/ Phil Lock: 30:43 – 36:41
• Metals and Commodities Market: 28:48 – 30:08
• Oil Market, Geopolitics: 38:33 – 40:35
• NBA Gambling Scandal and DraftKings Reaction: 41:17 – 45:37

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

• Intel’s government-backed resurgence may mark an inflection for U.S. chip policy but brings persistent questions about valuation and long-term profitability, especially in the foundry business.
• Broader semiconductor and cyclicals show demand strength and pricing power, but fundamentals, not just headlines, will drive the next leg.
• Quantum computing is in the spotlight—massive valuations and Federal interest, but experts urge careful investment, workforce development, and caution against government picking winners.
• Market volatility is muted at the index level but surging in individual names, suggesting now may be a good time for investors to hedge.
• Automakers Ford and GM trade higher on earnings, but GM is favored for operational strength; supply chain and tariff risks linger.
• A massive sports-betting scandal shakes the NBA but may prove an unexpected tailwind for regulated betting firms as the illegal market comes under more scrutiny.
• Rising oil and copper prices underscore the importance of resource security—in both policy and portfolios—as government involvement in strategic sectors accelerates.

For a fast-paced, in-depth look at actionable market news, this episode delivers trader wisdom, sector analysis, and incisive debate in the classic "Fast Money" style—direct, opinionated, and tuned to what matters most to investors.