CNBC Fast Money Podcast Summary

Episode: Is The Risk Trade Off?... And Another Rare Earth Rout
Date: October 17, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Vonnie Quinn, Carter Braxton Worth
Special Guests: Phil LeBeau (CNBC), Steve Liesman (CNBC), Steve Kovach (CNBC), Harvey Kay (US Critical Materials)

Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" explores the confusing crosscurrents in the market: stocks rally while risk trades unwind, sector winners rotate, and investors balance growth against value as volatility returns. The panel analyzes the “barbell” approach, regional bank health, rare earth supply chains amid US-China tensions, and upcoming earnings from Netflix and Tesla. Exclusive interviews provide breaking news on Boeing, the latest consumer sentiment data, and advancements from a US rare earth company navigating geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Recap and Risk Appetite

(00:47–06:47)

• Stocks closed out the week strong: Dow & S&P up >1.5%, NASDAQ & Russell 2000 up >2%.
• Despite index gains, risk trades falter: Gold up 6% for the week but down today; Bitcoin falls to lows not seen since June; 10-year Treasury yields drop 20 basis points this week.
• Dissonance in sentiment: Melissa Lee observes, "It's sort of an interesting, it's a weird trade going on. I think there's a whole lot of weird going on." (03:50)
• Tim Seymour proposes the ‘barbell’ trade: balancing aggressive growth with safer value plays like healthcare. He notes, "There's a place for some growth and maybe a decent part of aggressive growth, but then some value." (02:17)
• Bank earnings reassure some, but memories of 2023 linger: Karen Finerman warns of investor skittishness due to past contagion fears, calling out "the proliferation of private credit and buy now, pay later," which are "more difficult to monitor." (05:10)

2. Boeing Gets FAA Nod for Production Increase

(06:47–11:57)

• Breaking News: Phil LeBeau reports FAA approval for Boeing to boost 737 Max monthly output from 38 to 42 planes (06:55).
• Revenue and cash flow implications: Tim Seymour highlights, “What that means in terms of Q3 revenues is almost a 30% increase... I don't think the street has priced in cash flow positive on this company for the fourth quarter, and I think that's something that's a driver.” (10:18)
• Technical setup: Carter Braxton Worth’s take: “My bias is up and leave it at that... Boeing is in the midst of as long as it's taken, finally getting out of the mess that it's been in for years.” (11:02)

3. Investor Sentiment Diverges from Economic Reality

(11:57–17:34)

• CNBC All America Economic Survey: Steve Liesman reports worsening sentiment driven by inflation, job worries, and the ongoing government shutdown. "Stocks continue to go up. They're not that pessimistic on the stock market, but gold was the number one choice among when we asked people what the best investment was." (12:09)
• Demographic splits: Liesman says, “It's the independents that are sort of minus 30, minus 20 both on the President's handling of economic issues and indeed on the economy itself.” (13:46)
• Survey timing: Shutdown in play, with 53% blaming Republicans and the President for economic damage. (14:35)
• Bifurcated economy: Liesman: “There's a lot of wealth around. I'm not sure that's so true. I think the tariffs have potentially been pretty disruptive on a small business or small manufacturing level...” (15:10)
• Panel’s skepticism: Karen Finerman asserts the need to drill down consumer spending: "How much of that is actually discretionary spending and how much of that is just necessary day to day transactions?" (16:34)

4. Technical Market Outlook: Softness Across Sectors

(17:34–22:27)

• Carter Braxton Worth sees little clear direction: "It all feels a little soft... My hunch is that this is not the pause that refreshes, but something less sanguine." (17:34)
• Major indices unchanged month over month, after volatility.
• Bank stocks: Regional banks remain a problem, acting "terribly" vs. money center banks.

5. Regional Banks: Signs of Life and Caution

(18:47–22:27)

• Zion’s Bancorp rebounds, but the sector is still battered.
• Consolidation & Regulatory backdrop: Tim: “Regionals, actually from here over, money center banks is where you want to be.” (19:16)
• Vonnie Quinn adds: “We are seeing regulation...the idea of mergers being able to happen. We’re starting to see a little bit of that. I think that will continue to accelerate. Rates coming down better for them.” (20:34)
• Carter sums up: “The Nasdaq bank index...is making all time lows to the S&P...These are trading assets, they're not investment assets.” (21:53)

6. Apple’s China Update & Margin Outlook

(23:19–29:06)

• Strong demand for iPhone in China: Steve Kovach details Tim Cook’s diplomatic China tour and hints at improving sentiment: “We're already getting signs that [iPhone Air] is a real hot seller and demand is pretty high for it.” (24:30)
• Shifting supply chains: Cook signals ongoing investment in China but moves some manufacturing to India/Vietnam.
• Margin pressure: Mizuho note: cutting Air production but increasing Pro and base models due to varying demand, which implies lower margins.
• **Tim Seymour: “I do think the worst of the Apple sentiment on China may, dare I say, be behind us for the near term.” (27:23)
• Carter suggests Apple may ‘outperform in a downturn’ due to low beta and balance sheet but hasn’t led the market to new highs as S&P and Nasdaq have. (28:32)

7. Oil Weakness: Technical & Fundamental Signals

(31:10–33:39)

• Oil hits five-month lows, WTI has fallen three weeks running.
• **Carter Braxton Worth says: “The chart itself is a pair of two. I just wouldn't be longer short oil here. But I think the message...It's all a little soggy underfoot.” (31:10)
• **Tim Seymour: “If oil prices are supposed to be predicting OPEC's next move... I think OPEC really feels the need to reel it in...I think it's bad politics for the White House to let oil go below 60.” (32:23)
• Support level: Carter notes “If you get any macro weakness that says growth is coming down, oil will come down...let’s pick $55, that’s a good number.” (33:16)

8. Rare Earth Rout & Exclusive Interview

(34:51–39:45)

• Rare earth stocks tumble following gains, uncertainty with imminent US-China trade talks.
• Harvey Kay (U.S. Critical Materials): Announces the highest-grade US rare earth deposit, environmentally benign processing technology. “It's the beginning of independence for this country and we need it.” (39:45)
  • Mine includes heavy elements critical for magnets/military.
  • Processing advances could enable US self-sufficiency: “We have now developed... a new cutting edge technology with them that has the ability to go from the rock to the dock, meaning from the raw rare earth that comes out of the ground to the finished product of gallium and samarium...” (37:47)
• **Tim Seymour: “There are those that characterize this as America's next great energy crisis...it's fantastic that we're fast tracking this.” (40:09)

9. Earnings Preview: Netflix & Tesla

(40:53–45:32)

Netflix

• Up Q3; panel mixed on upside from here.
• Karen Finerman: “I just wonder how much of this expectation has been pulled forward into the name...not a particularly exciting pattern here and now by my work as a long or short.” (41:28, 44:03)
• Vonnie Quinn: “I am really optimistic on the cost of content going down materially... I have an expensive stock but I’m hanging on to it.” (42:22)
• Options market expects volatility; traders are cautious but not uniformly bullish.

Tesla

• Q3 delivery beat; stock consolidating after a big run.
• Carter: “I've put two arrows because I have no clue. I would leave it alone. It's 50/50 jump ball.” (44:36)
• Options signal: Most action on upside bets.
• Karen suggests downside protection via put spreads, while Tim calls it “Soggy soft pair of twos. I'm not a buyer.” (45:29)

Notable Quotes & Moments

| Time | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | 03:50 | "It's sort of an interesting, it's a weird trade going on. I think there's a whole lot of weird going on." | Melissa Lee | | 12:09 | “Gold was the number one choice among when we asked people what the best investment was...” | Steve Liesman | | 28:32 | “The only thing positive...about Apple is that in the event of a real market swoon, because of its somewhat low beta...I think it would offer relative outperformance, albeit might be down less than everything being down.” | Carter Braxton Worth | | 31:10 | “It’s all a little soggy underfoot.” | Carter Braxton Worth | | 32:23 | “It makes me want to say wtf, I mean, as it relates to oil, but I wouldn't say that. So therefore...” | Tim Seymour | | 39:45 | "It's the beginning of independence for this country and we need it." | Harvey Kay | | 44:03 | “It's a do nothing moment...maybe just you know, stand aside. It's not a particularly exciting pattern here and now by my work as a long or short.” | Carter Braxton Worth |

Timestamps: Important Segments

• Market Recap & “weird” risk-off dynamics: 00:47–06:47
• Barbell strategy / bank sector: 02:17–05:10
• Boeing production increase news: 06:47–11:57
• CNBC Economic Sentiment Survey: 11:57–16:13
• Regional banks—debate & chart analysis: 18:47–22:27
• Apple’s China performance & supply chain: 23:19–29:06
• Oil market technicals and supply story: 31:10–33:39
• Rare earth market turmoil & guest interview: 34:51–40:09
• Earnings previews (Netflix, Tesla), options trades: 40:53–45:32

Closing Takeaways

The Fast Money team remains vigilant as market signals flash “softness.” Defensive assets have outperformed alongside pockets of aggressive growth. Investors are warned not to overreact: it’s a time of tactical rotation and modest expectations from earnings. The rare earth discussion underscored the intersection of geopolitics, national security, and new technology, while regional banks and oil markets face secular headwinds. As the panel puts it: it’s a “do nothing moment” for many trades—an episode defined by caution, waiting, and ongoing market cross-currents.