← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Is The Risk Trade Off?... And Another Rare Earth Rout 10/17/25
00:43:55
Stocks ticking higher and closing out a strong week of gains, but with gold & crypto pulling back as yields catch a bounce, will the risk-off action continue through Q4? Plus… coming back down to earth. How ongoing China trade uncertainty is hitting the rare earth material stocks, and what the meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping will mean for the trade. Fast Money Disclaimer
Loading summary
Transcript133 lines
- [00:01]
Tim Seymour
Introducing Fidelity Trader plus, the next generation of advanced trading from Fidelity. Customize your tools and charts and access them seamlessly across desktop, web and mobile. For faster trades anywhere you go, try the all new Fidelity Trader Plus. Learn more about our most powerful trading platform yet@fidelity.com TraderPlus investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, llc Member NYSE SIPC.
- [00:30]
Karen Finerman
You're a guy who just wants to look nice.
- [00:32]
Carter Braxton Worth
The kind of nice where you might get a nice compliment on the niceness.
- [00:35]
Melissa Lee
Of your nice new outfit. Good thing Men's Wearhouse has everything from polos to jeans and yes, suits. Plus a team to help you find the perfect fit to make sure you look nice nice. Love the way you look.
- [00:44]
Karen Finerman
Men's Wearhouse.
- [00:48]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ Marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Solid gains that close out a solid week. Equity indices are up but risk trades are down. What the action says about where the market is heading next in a rare earth rout after months of massive gains. We'll talk to the executive chair, one of US producers. Where about from a US Producer about where things stand with China and how trade tensions are impacting his company. Plus, regional banks try to rebound after yesterday's plunge. Crude oil hits new five month lows and we're counting down to earnings from Netflix and Tesla next week. What to expect from the reports and how options traders are positioning right now. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Von Owen Eisen and Carter Braxton Worth. We start off with a festive Friday on Wall Street. Stocks closing out the week near their highs of the session, locking in some solid gains since Monday. The Dow and S and P jumping more than one and a half percent. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 up more than 2%. The strength coming even as investors run into the safety trades. Gold down today but up more than 6% this week. And bond prices rising to yields on the 10 year yield. Bond yields on the 10 year down 20 basis points since the start of the week. Meanwhile, investors continue to cash out of crypto bitcoin hitting its lowest level since June with other tokens lower well, so will today's risk off action continue into next week and what could it mean for the broader market? I don't know, Tim. What how you decipher this. There's an appetite for risk on one hand, but there's not an appetite for risk. When you take a look at the other trade, well, it feels a little.
- [02:17]
Tim Seymour
Bit like the barbell trade that I think makes a lot of sense overall anyway. There's a place for some growth and maybe a decent part of aggressive growth, but then some value. And I look at health care and I look at a place where whatever health care proxy you're looking to invest, whether it's one of the ETFs or whether it's actually investing in a handful of the core names that have been really looking to base for a couple of years, I think there's an argument for both sides of the trade. Remember, where were we a week ago? What a, what a difference a week makes. I mean we went last Friday into a weekend where even as we got into late on Sunday at some point where futures were also indicating another week we were going to be looking at a combined kind of two day down 4 or 5% move and suddenly we've now had the best week since August after having the worst week since August. So I think the White House is helped calm fears about a fresh. It's not fresh, is it? I guess it's, it's China and where are we? And the rhetoric was very conciliatory or very comfortable that we're going to be in a place the regional bank concerns which I know were just discussed, I think are something that the market is focused on. But, but again I think of this as a week when banks gave you full steam ahead in terms of, of a trade where I actually think the regional banks are possibly more interesting than the moneycenter banks at this point. So again, sprinkling a week that it's all relative to where we started. There's. We're also getting data in terms of cash on the sidelines coming into this market. We talked about that. There's a lot of money on the sidelines. As rates come down, more cash comes into the market or at least that was the trade this week.
- [03:50]
Melissa Lee
It's interesting to see where the gains were made in the markets this week. I mean semiconductors were up almost 6% on the week. At the same time, the equal weight S&P 500 notching almost similar gains, neck to neck gains with the S&P 500 market cap weight. So it's sort of an interesting, it's a weird trade going on. I think there's a whole lot of weird going on.
- [04:09]
Vonnie Quinn
I mean I don't know what the differential was between very early this morning where the futures were and where we ended up lots happened and yet I don't know that anything has really happened, but feels like it. I like going into earnings season where we have something very tangible to sort of, you know, shoot against. So I like that more than whatever the headlines may be and they may change every day or within a day. So I do like the idea that maybe things are CALMER on the U.S. china trade front. But I agree with Tim on the banks. I thought banks were solid, which is great, not just for the banks, but banks are really, you know, that's a good look at the economy. And so that seemed like the economy was in pretty good shape. So I like the banks and agree with the regional. I think that this is not the sort of systemic threat that the Silicon Valley bank situation was in any way. So I think that's sort of an interesting. We had a few banks today, had regionals that had good earnings, solid truist financial, bunch of others.
- [05:10]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, I agree in terms of what's been reported, it has been relatively strong and I think that's reassured the market. I think we have to remind ourselves that there is a bit of a data blackout so you should expect some additional volatility because people are essentially trying to attach some ability to garner, garner information from every incremental piece of data and that's going to be scrutinized a little bit more being that we just don't have the same steady flow of information to kind of hang our hats on as far as the banking crisis is concerned. I agree there's, there's nothing yet to suggest that there is a contagion. But I can understand that investors remember 2023 and are likely looking for some indication that perhaps this is not just a self contained situation. We have kind of spoken ad nauseum about how the proliferation of private credit and buy now, pay later, all these other things that are a more difficult to monitor. So while I don't disagree with everybody else in terms of what we have had so far leads us to believe that there is expansion, we've seen equal weighted kind of perform well. So you are seeing that broadening of the market. But given where we are and if you look at valuations, and particularly if you look at the AI related valuations up in the 90th or 95th percentile, I think it is to be expected that people want to be the first out of the door.
- [06:22]
Steve Liesman
What is it?
- [06:23]
Karen Finerman
Fifo, if you will, as opposed to being kind of like held and forced to kind of hold that drawdown. And so while I Do want to point to the market performance? I do think bitcoin and gold. And then when you couple that in with the volatility that we have seen in the ten year treasury, it does kind of lead people to be a little bit more on edge. And given where we are with performance, I can understand that there's a lot.
- [06:47]
Melissa Lee
To chart on this Friday. But before we get to Carter Braxton Worth want to get to some breaking news on Boeing, which is sending the shares higher by about 2%. Phil, have all the details here.
- [06:56]
Phil LeBeau
Phil and Melissa, they're moving higher because the FAA has given Boeing its approval to increase 737 max monthly production from 38 per month where they are right now, up to 42 per month. Now, we knew that Boeing was going to ask for this approval at some point from the faa, but we've been told that this afternoon Brian Bedford, the administrator for the faa, has started notifying leaders on Capitol Hill that after reviewing the process, he has concluded that Boeing has the steps completed and has the processes in place to safely and effectively move up to 42 per month. In a statement the FAA released just a few minutes ago to us, they said the FAA safety inspectors conducted extensive reviews of Boeing's production lines to ensure that this small production rate increase will be done safely. They go on to say that they will continue to monitor Boeing. And by the way, if Boeing wants to go up to 47 per month, at some point, they're going to need FAA approval. In a statement, Boeing says what you would expect it to say, which is this is what we've been waiting for. The company says our team has followed us a disciplined rate readiness process guided by our safety management system and tracked by key performance indicators that were agreed upon with the faa. We remain committed to implementing our safety and quality plan and working with our suppliers to increase production in this increase in a disciplined manner. We appreciate the work by our team and our suppliers and the FAA to ensure we are prepared to increase production with safety quality at the forefront. So there you have it, Melissa. Not a surprise in terms of we knew it was going to happen at some point, but now it is official Boeing can increase 737 max monthly production from 38 per month up to 42 per month. And you know how this goes, Melissa. Production drives deliveries, which drives free cash flow. And Kelly Ortberg, the CEO of Boeing, has already said he believes they will be positive free cash flow this quarter. And this could be a key component to that.
- [09:00]
Melissa Lee
Phil, can you put this raise to 42 in perspective, what have Boeing's goals been by the end of the year in terms of production ramp? What had it been before?
- [09:10]
Phil LeBeau
Well, they've always wanted to get up to 42 by the end of this year. And initially some people thought they might get there maybe in the third quarter. But it's been pretty clear, and Boeing has been very adamant that they will not rush this. They wanted to make sure that the FAA completely signed off. And by the way, every day the FAA gets data from Boeing from the manufacturing process in terms of what's working, what's not working, what needs improvement. And they've seen the data for some time. They had a meeting about three weeks ago where they finally went over the six key performance indicators. And at that meeting, the FAA said, okay, you've shown that you can do this consistently. So Boeing wanted to get to 42, thought they might get there in the third quarter. Realistically, everybody said fourth quarter. Now the question becomes, can they sustain this not just in terms of quality, but in terms of their supply chain and then potentially move up to 47 per year or per month? Excuse me. Sometime next year, right?
- [10:07]
Melissa Lee
Phil, thanks.
- [10:07]
Phil LeBeau
You bet.
- [10:08]
Melissa Lee
Lebow, who's here at the Nasdaq, but not here.
- [10:10]
Tim Seymour
Why is he here?
- [10:11]
Melissa Lee
I don't know. Climb the stairs.
- [10:13]
Tim Seymour
I love them.
- [10:14]
Melissa Lee
We're so grateful for the report. Phil, is this the final piece in the Boeing turnaround?
- [10:18]
Tim Seymour
It sure helps. And Again, we got Q3 deliveries, which are 160 aircraft versus 100, and I think I wrote this down, 121 versus the previous year. So, I mean, we've already started to see a difference. And what that means in terms of Q3 revenues is almost a 30% increase. So as Phil said, I don't think the street has priced in cash flow positive on this company for the fourth quarter, and I think that's something that's a driver. Remember, shares have been kind of caught in this sideways move for the stock. That, by the way, is the B in band or bland, depending how you're playing this at home. I think this is a driver. I think analyst community can follow through now with upgrades.
- [10:57]
Melissa Lee
Carter, there's a lot to chart, but since we're in the Boeing silo here, what does the chart look like here for this one?
- [11:03]
Carter Braxton Worth
Sure. I mean, obviously Boeing is in the midst of as long as it's taken, finally getting out of the mess that it's been in for years, five, seven, eight years. And so my bias is up and leave it at that. But in terms of the, you know, the great conversation you're having about all the things that went on this week. I mean, I would say the key data point, it's twofold. The two most defensive things there are we're up smartly, yes. Bonds, US treasuries, both 2 year, 10 year and utilities. Right. We know that Reeds are defensive until they're not. Those office buildings can be a problem. And we know that health care is defensive until it's not. And staples, they're horrible consumer staple stocks that are in 10 year downtrends. As we know, the two most defensive things, and that's the story in the week with some of the most aggressive things really hitting the skids. And I would say, of course, that's crypto.
- [11:58]
Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime, Americans view on the economy turn negative, more negative in the third quarter according to CNBC's All America Economic Survey. For more, let's bring in CNBC's Steve Leesman. Steve?
- [12:09]
Steve Liesman
Melissa, yeah, we definitely had a turn down. It looks like there's a couple issues here. One is inflation. Another is jobs. And I think the shutdown also looks to be bothering average Americans. And it's kind of a reality check. Obviously you cover the stock market every day. It's been going up, people getting wealthier, not necessarily getting that loving feeling throughout America. We polled a thousand people. Take a look for example, at the jobs data. You can see or there's the inflation data, 75% put those two blue bars together, think prices are rising and 50% say they're rising faster than usual. A key part of that graph. You can't see it there, but a very low number think their wages are going to be increasing. Now look at the jobs outlook. You can see that a higher percentage than normal are more worried about being able to find a job or worried about losing their job, even though the number who think they can find a job is actually pretty healthy. So and all of that, by the way, you can look at the individual issues that we ask about. President Trump and you can see he does well on the southern border, but more negative on deporting illegal immigrants. And those two on the bottom I think are key. Got way more negative that minus 15% on tariffs and more negative still on inflation and the cost of living. So those are the things bothering Americans. Stocks continue to go up. They're not that pessimistic on the stock market, but gold was the number one choice among when we asked people what the best investment was, was, which seems.
- [13:39]
Melissa Lee
Telling in and of itself. Steve, is there any breakdown in terms of demographics of of your sample of.
- [13:46]
Steve Liesman
Sure. A lot, a lot of, a lot of demographic breakdowns. A lot of this is partizan and you can look at things and as soon as the party in power changes in the White House, Melissa, you get a flip in terms of how Republicans and Democrats feel about the economy. So we watch independents and what we find is that Democrats are minus 90, for example, on the president. Republicans are plus 90, but it's the independents that are sort of minus 30, minus 20, both on the President's handling of economic issues and indeed on the economy itself. So that's a place where you might get a little bit closer view of, of what people really think aside from the partisanship, which is obviously runs throughout all of this survey.
- [14:29]
Melissa Lee
And was the survey in the field during the shutdown or at the beginning of the shutdown since we're 17 days in or so?
- [14:35]
Steve Liesman
Yes, it was. We were wondering if this was going to be a quick shutdown, if we should withdraw those questions. But it ended up being a good thing they were in there. And what we find is that 53% of the public says they would for the economic damage they would blame Republicans and the president. 37% say Democrats. That's the way they're thinking about it. So and we're going to talk Monday, Melissa, about Americans views on health care, which is obviously a big part of the debate surrounding this shutdown.
- [15:03]
Vonnie Quinn
Steve, it's Karen, thanks for being on. Let me just do a survey of one which is you what's your take on the economy right now?
- [15:10]
Steve Liesman
Well, I think the idea of it being a bifurcated economy certainly is not my, my, my own original thought, but I think that's the case. I mean you look at some of the returns that are out there in the stock market and, and, and really the, the, the world that we live with, the milieu that we live in and it's one where there's a lot of wealth around. I'm not sure that's so true. I think the tariffs have potentially been pretty disruptive on a small business or a small manufacturing level in ways that don't necessarily show up in the data. And of course we don't have any data. So I am concerned about a kind of hollowing out in the middle and the lower end until these tariffs become something that people understand how to deal with if they can deal with themselves. But you can imagine places that, you know, small businesses that were getting imports from overseas that now pay more. Maybe their business plan doesn't work. I also think there's A lot of uncertainty out there. And that's something we've picked up in business surveys as well as small business surveys. And also I think it's a big deal in the responses that we've been getting.
- [16:11]
Melissa Lee
Steve, always great to see you. Thank you.
- [16:13]
Steve Liesman
Pleasure.
- [16:14]
Melissa Lee
Steve Liesman. Interesting to see this degree of caution when it comes to the economy, how they feel, how they feel about inflation. And yet all the indications from the bank CEOs indicate that consumers are spreading consumer spending, that there is no let up in consumer spending. So the consumer appears to be strong. When you look at that data point, when you actually survey these consumers, there is some indication that they don't feel as good.
- [16:35]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, I think some of the survey data does have to be taken with a grain of salt or at least putting it put in context, two things. I think a lot of times there's a lot of championing about US ownership of the stock market, but I think that has to be a little bit more nuanced. You need to look at how much of their actual employment wages are replaced by the amount investment that they have because then that gives you a relative amount of like replacement and wealth effect and things of that nature. Aside from that, like the consumer is almost in a position where they're, where they're forced to spend. I think that's the other kind of caveat here where we have had inflation and it's pulled back, but price prices remain elevated. And the consumer spinning data to me needs to be drilled down in terms of how much of that is actually discretionary spending and how much of that is just necessary day to day transactions.
- [17:24]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Carter, I want to go to you on some of these trades that we saw, you know, that were notable as you pointed out, the move in gold, the move in rates. What are you anticipating at this point? Looking at the charts?
- [17:35]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah. Well, again it all feels a little soft. Right. For lack of any more perfect word. Oil is troublesome. Regional banks and others a bit troublesome. And big banks, despite the big news not following through again, yields making a storytelling. And then gold, of course, which has been spectacular reversing today. It's important note also here we are exactly one month later, the S and P is unchanged, literally closed at 6,664. And if you look at where we were on, I GUESS it was October 19th, a Friday four weeks ago, it's 6,664. Not that that's a magic number, but the market is unchanged now after a big run up and consolidation like that. Of course, the case can be made that that's the pause that refreshes, that you consolidate only to reassert yourself and go higher. Or of course, it's the opposite, which is it's a stall and it's a churn based on some of the action in the constituents. Again, whether it's certain energy stocks, the way utilities are acting, the way regional banks and so forth. My hunch is that this is not the pause that refreshes, but something less sanguine.
- [18:47]
Melissa Lee
All right, let's talk regionals now. Shares of Zion's Bancorp trying to rebound from yesterday's rout. The Stock up nearly 6% today, but still down 5% this week. Analysts at Baird upgrading the battered regional from neutral to outperform, saying yesterday's billion dollar market cap loss in reaction to a $50 million charge off was, quote, excessive. The firm has a $65 price target on the stock. Some of the arguments are they're much more disciplined when it comes to extending credit in this cycle. And so therefore, you know, the quality should be better here.
- [19:17]
Tim Seymour
I guess I'm. Maybe I'm being naive, but I have not heard outside of these, you know, we've. We've heard a handful of, you know, call them isolated, idiosyncratic, you know, whatever you want to do. In fact, you know, when we had Tom Mishaw from KBW on earlier in the week, I mean, the argument was that the regionals are in a really interesting place because not only do you have some tailwinds that are going on for core businesses, but lower interest rates, but also a regulatory environment that might actually start to see some more consolidation in the space. So I look at regionals and I look at them, certainly relative to the S and P, they've really underperformed, but relative to the money center banks, it's been a terrible trade. And I'm not sure that that's a trade people have on. I think regionals, actually from here over, money center banks is where you want to be.
- [20:03]
Vonnie Quinn
Well, I'm positioned in MoneyCenter banks, but I do have some regional exposure. And I think that there was. I agree with everything Tim said. I really don't think this is, as I said earlier, the start of any kind of systemic svb like anything. I think that some of the transitory.
- [20:20]
Tim Seymour
And by the way, sorry, SVB was proven to be idiosyncratic and isolated too. Right?
- [20:25]
Vonnie Quinn
Well, there was a couple. I mean, yeah, that's First Republic did go under and. Yeah, but what.
- [20:33]
Tim Seymour
Oh, those guys. Yeah, right.
- [20:35]
Vonnie Quinn
I love those guys. That was a great bang anyway. But now they're part of JP Morgan so I'm sure they're very happy. But the other thing about the regionals is that we are seeing regulation, which, you know, decreased regulation, but also the idea of mergers being able to happen. We're starting to see a little bit of that. I think that will continue to accelerate. Rates coming down better for them. I like that space. I think it's interesting.
- [21:01]
Tim Seymour
Interesting.
- [21:02]
Melissa Lee
I get all of what you say in terms of the. It just they act terribly. I mean the chart is just it, it doesn't act like the money center bank. It doesn't act like it has wind at its back.
- [21:13]
Vonnie Quinn
It's a different animal than the money center banks. They don't have, they don't have. The money center banks have this giant capital markets investment banking thing that's really been great. The regionals actually are seeing a little bit more pressure on deposit prices or deposit, you know, costs so that their nim is getting hurt a little bit. Their efficiency is decent though and I think rates coming down is better for them. I also think some of the real estate pockets that were so problematic, that's sort of abated a little bit.
- [21:44]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, so.
- [21:45]
Vonnie Quinn
And when you put on top of that regulation and mergers, I think it's an interesting place to be.
- [21:50]
Melissa Lee
Carter, what's your verdict on the chart for regionals?
- [21:54]
Carter Braxton Worth
I mean maybe just let the statistics and you used a great old time technical expression. They act poorly. So forget the carry which doesn't have a lot of history and only has maybe 40, 50 constituents. The Nasdaq bank index has some 300. It goes back to 1970. Right now that index is making all time lows to the S and P. I mean the history of bank operators in the United States. It's a highly risky business and if you get it wrong, you go out of business. And these are trading assets, they're not investment assets.
- [22:28]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Apple making waves in China with its new iPhone Air. We'll take a closer look at the latest data and what this means for the tech giant Next plus high interest in low energy to close out the weak oil under serious pressure as economic uncertainty builds. What's next for black gold right after this? Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier that comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together we're building a healthier future. Learn more@ multicare.org.
- [23:19]
Harvey Kay
The heaviest metal credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence. Plated with the very same tungsten that.
- [23:29]
Tim Seymour
Forged the international space station.
- [23:33]
Harvey Kay
And wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move. But the real power move having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments.
- [23:47]
Melissa Lee
FedEx, the new power move. At 1-800-Flowers.com we know that connections are at the heart of being human. Whether celebrating life's joys or comforting during tough times, 1-800-Flowers helps you express what words can't. For nearly 50 years, millions have trusted 1-800-Flowers to deliver thoughtful gifts that help create lasting bonds. Because it's more than just a gift. It's your way of showing you care. Visit 1-800flowers.com/sxm and connect today. That's 1-800flowers.com /sxm. Welcome back to Fast Money. Apple shares popping 2% to close out the week on some positive reports of strong demand in the key China market. For more, let's bring in CBC Steve Kobach. Hey, Steve.
- [24:31]
Steve Kovach
Hey, Mel. Yeah, we're seeing a lot of evidence now that the iPhone is seeing somewhat of a resurgence here. We saw it last quarter in earnings. We saw the early Data of the iPhone 17 and then now the iPhone air, which was a little delayed over there in China due to some regulatory issues. They got it off the ground today and we're already getting signs that it's a real hot seller and demand is pretty high for it. But look, Tim Cooks has spent the last past week over there in China doing a bit of a tour. He met with customers, he met with some regulators and things like that. Made a promise, at least according to state media, to continue increasing investment in the country, though no specifics on that. He also had a custom made look, boo boo, made of himself. That's all part of the the show going out there. But look, this is all happening at the same time. As important as China is to Apple, it's the second biggest market outside the United States. We're still seeing Apple and Tim Cook increasingly take its dependence away from China and onto other places. We talk about India a lot as a place for us bound iPhones rather are being made and plus Vietnam for all those other accessories. And look, we're going to get earnings here, Mel, in 13 days from today and we're going to get our first official indication of how big this cycle is for the iPhone 17. It's really interesting to watch. I does even play a part in here, but we're already seeing some positive momentum compared to last year.
- [25:54]
Melissa Lee
Now you mentioned Tim Cook's China tour and also part of the China tour. I thought that was interesting, Steve, as his willingness to sort of, I don't want to say kowtow, but you know, placate some of the Chinese regulators. I mean he's part of a board of Tsinghua University. He's made a donation to Tsinghua and then he also met with he Li Feng, which is the trade negotiator for China. Presumably, you know, he's playing the Chinese side as well as the US side. You know, of course they gave Trump a hunk of gold basically.
- [26:27]
Steve Kovach
Yeah, the golden trophy. No golden trophies as far as I can tell on this one. But look, Tim Cook is really experienced doing this kind of stuff in China. We're just not used to seeing him do it in the United States with the United States President. So he's been playing sort of politician in China for many years now and he needs China because again, even though they're moving production for those US bound iPhones and other devices outside of the country for the rest of the world, they still need China. They still need that labor force and of course that consumer base out there as well. And so, so those kind of politicking is just going to continue. They have. He has to do that. That's part of the job now.
- [27:04]
Melissa Lee
Yep. Steve. Thanks Steve Kovac. Meantime, Apple's up 2%. Mizuho also had a note saying that they're going to be cutting Apple, that is production of the iPhone air because of lack of demand and they're going to up production of the Pro as well as just the plane 17 because of stronger demand there, which imply lower margins.
- [27:23]
Vonnie Quinn
Margins.
- [27:24]
Tim Seymour
Lower margins. We've been worried about what was going on with the Asps and so that's something to think about, I guess. I find the news flow in Apple to be glass half full and that includes also just other data out of China that we also got today, which is that foreign smartphone shipments and this is back to July is I guess the number we're getting year over year. So it does seem dated, but up 16%. I mean this has been a story of the local players actually dominating the local market and I don't know that that's necessarily going to reverse, but I do think that the worst of the Apple sentiment on China may, dare I say, be behind us for the near term.
- [27:56]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, I think you're able to kind of take a proverbial sigh of relief. I wouldn't get ahead of myself, but China, I mean, sorry. Apple essentially has been challenged for some time. There's been scrutiny around its AI approach, there's been scrutiny around its supply chain and how they're going to be able to divert away from from China. And I do think they have done this adeptly. With that said, you still likely want to see more. I think the estimated ASB increase increases around 8 to 10% for this particular model. So I do think there is some. I think it's marginally positive and I think you're going to remain you still want to see the key driver to this, to this new super site, super cycle, if you will.
- [28:30]
Melissa Lee
Your take Carter, on on Apple?
- [28:32]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, I guess if you just put in the context of equities, we know that equities plunged during the tariff period. S and P drops 21, Nasdaq 100 drops 25 and Apple drops 35. And those other aggregates, S and P and Nasdaq have gotten back to new highs. Apple has not is sitting at its former high. I suspect the only thing positive that one might say about Apple is that in the event of a real market swoon because of its somewhat low beta and big balance sheet, etc. I think it would offer relative outperformance, albeit might be down less than everything being down.
- [29:07]
Melissa Lee
All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [29:11]
Tim Seymour
The rare earth trade gets rocked again as the trade tug of war between China and the US Rages on.
- [29:17]
Melissa Lee
We'll talk to the chairman of one.
- [29:19]
Tim Seymour
Company in the crosshairs. But first, Texas tea takes a breather. We're diving into the energy trade as investors await potentially game changing developments across the globe.
- [29:31]
Karen Finerman
Next.
- [29:32]
Tim Seymour
You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [29:43]
Harvey Kay
The heaviest metal credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very.
- [29:51]
Tim Seymour
Same tungsten that forged the International Space Station.
- [29:56]
Harvey Kay
And wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move. But the real power move having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments.
- [30:10]
Melissa Lee
FedEx.
- [30:11]
Harvey Kay
The new power move.
- [30:13]
Melissa Lee
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
- [30:17]
Tim Seymour
I have no fear of failure.
- [30:19]
Melissa Lee
Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money and our chart of the week. Oil prices up slightly today, but down more than 2% this week, hitting its lowest level since May. WTI has now fallen three weeks in a row. This is softness coming as the IEA forecasts growing supply and as President Trump and Russian President Putin agree to another summit to discuss Ukraine. It's our chart of the week. So we have to go to the chart master. What do you think of oil?
- [31:10]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, again, that goes in the soft bucket, right? Just for what it's worth, oil right now, adjusted for inflation, the same level it was in 1984. But here too, this is, this is not the an inspired I mean the chart itself is a pair of two. I just wouldn't be longer short oil here. But I think the message of oil being where it is, along with some of the messaging going on from restaurant stocks to certain other consumer names to homebuilders, the message again, gold rates. It's all a little soggy underfoot.
- [31:43]
Melissa Lee
There's a real theme to Carter. Yeah, Carter, soft soggy parity in your acronym. I don't know what letter because it's hard to write.
- [31:53]
Vonnie Quinn
Hard to know. It's E, the oih, obviously. Okay. But it's interesting. I mean this has been a terrible trade. However, it has outperformed oil wti West Texas, over from just before Liberation Day. I think a dollar in each is worth 84 cents in oil and 94 cents in. Oh, I'm actually surprised at the it hasn't done worse. I mean, if we start to really see some pullback in production, that is.
- [32:23]
Tim Seymour
No bueno for the oi, as we keep saying wti. I mean it makes me want to say wtf, I mean, as it relates to oil, but I wouldn't say that. So therefore, especially when you consider the weak dollar and you consider some of the dynamics where if oil prices are supposed to be predicting OPEC's next move, where I think OPEC really feels the need to reel it in. We had this conversation on last week. I think it's bad politics for the White House to let oil go below 60 because I think a lot of US production becomes unprofitable. So I, you know, at some point Carter is going to have that, that call that he often has and it's usually right so bad. It's good and I'm not sure when that is because we still really, if we get any macro weakness that says growth is coming down, oil will come down. But it has been a supply story. And I do think the supply story is now in favor of oil. Oil bulls for the first time in a long time.
- [33:12]
Melissa Lee
What is the level of support, Carter, that you're looking for in wti?
- [33:16]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah, that's the thing, right. It's hovering sort of ominously at well defined intermediate lows. And that is quite often a level that you break below, meaning the longer you sit here and don't bounce, it just loses the energy to bounce. And my hunch is lower. Is there support? Not particularly, but let's pick 55. That's a good number.
- [33:39]
Melissa Lee
Okay. Coming up, a reversal of fortune in rare earth stocks, why the wind is coming out of the sails in this group and how US Producers are navigating supply uncertainty. More FAST MONEY right after this. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks bouncing to finish out the week in the green. All three major indices just about half a percent higher today. The Dow and the S and P both up more than one and a half percent on the week. And the NASDAQ jumping more than 2% since Monday. And American Express cashing in on strong earnings before the bell. The financial giant beating top and bottom line estimates, raising full year guidance. And we're watching shares of Novo after hours. The FDA approving Ribelsis, its oral semaglutide for cardiovascular risk reduction in some diabetes patients. Stock is up half percent right now. Rare earth material stocks extending their losses following a big run up in the group. The industry is still facing major uncertainty with President Trump and China's Xi Jinping set to discuss trade policy in a meeting two weeks from now. For more on how domestic rare earth companies are navigating this volatility, let's bring in Harvey Kay, executive chairman of U.S. critical Materials, a private rare earth deposit and processing company. Harvey, great to have you with us.
- [34:52]
Harvey Kay
And thank you very much. And the topic itself, of course, is top of mind for everybody. And so I'd like to just do a very short intro so people understand what US Critical Materials is about and how it relates to what's occurring in the marketplace. We are, as you mentioned, a privately held company. We are intending in the coming calendar year to become a public company. What's important is we believe we are uniquely positioned to help make America sovereign again in critical materials and rare earths, which has now become a geopolitical issue, has now become a negotiation with tariffs and Everything else. And the reason that we are uniquely positioned is we have the highest grade of rare earths ever found in the United States. We have a technology that we have developed with Idaho National Labs that is environmentally benign. And we are very close to be able to move into revenue in 2026 by virtue of our ability to start to mine the facility and get product off the mountain.
- [36:02]
Melissa Lee
And I want to talk to you about your mine, your deposit, and Sheep Creek is where the rare earths are for you. And how does that look in terms of how much there is relative to some of the other deposits in the United States? And I'm thinking mostly of Molly Corp. And its, you know, Thacker Pass.
- [36:23]
Harvey Kay
Well, what is very interesting about it is that we have the heavy rare earths, dysprosium, terbium, galilenium, which are required for magnets, are required for everything that's needed. They do not have that. Most importantly, we have gallium. Gallium is considered a critical mineral. There's 3,800 military uses for gallium alone. And we have the richest deposit, averaging 300 parts per million, of gallium that has ever literally been found. We expect that we will be able to start bringing gallium off the mountain, helping the United States to develop its strategic reserve. But it critically is important for magnets, for chips, for AI, for missiles, for everything that's required.
- [37:19]
Melissa Lee
Sure. And I also want to ask you about processing. Harvey, forgive me for interrupting, but you know, this is tv, so we're short on time. But I do want to get to the other part of the story. It's not just about getting the rare earths out of the ground. It's also about processing. And that's where China has really excelled. It's a very dirty process. It's complicated. So what do you offer on. On that front? And you mentioned you're working with the Ames National Laboratory. Are you working on the Ames process in terms of processing rare earths?
- [37:48]
Harvey Kay
Well, I'll give you a short but hopefully concise answer. We have entered into an agreement with Idaho National Labs, Dr. Robert Fox, who's been named by the DOE, to come up with an environmentally benign process. He is using our or, because of the high grade and the purity of it over the last year, we have now developed a new cutting edge technology with them that has the ability to go from the rock to the dock, meaning from the raw rare earth that comes out of the ground to the finished product of gallium and samarium and all of these other products, it will be patentable. We will have the ability to license it and it will be the finest process ever developed and we expect that we will be developing a full scale operating model of that this year on their property and it will be utilized on military bases to develop the processing capability in the United States.
- [38:55]
Melissa Lee
Is the salt to oxide to salt to metal process.
- [39:00]
Harvey Kay
It is a, it is actually called an electrochemical membrane reactor and it is different than ion exchange and it is different than the other processes that are being used. It is a enclosed self contained process that has no environmental impact and has the ability to go literally from the raw or to the finished refined products and the purity that the users will use. And so it is a very unique and very special development that they have created with our financial assistance and collaboration.
- [39:41]
Melissa Lee
Harvey, great to speak with you. Fascinating. Harvey, keep us posted on all this.
- [39:45]
Harvey Kay
I will. It's the beginning of independence for this country and we need it. So thank you for the opportunity to meet you guys. Have a great day.
- [39:55]
Melissa Lee
Thanks. You too. All right. U.S. critical materials again, not public right now. Although he did say that he intends on going public public. And what a time to go public because you throw a dart at any publicly traded stock in this sector and you know.
- [40:09]
Tim Seymour
Right.
- [40:09]
Melissa Lee
In fact, it's amazing.
- [40:10]
Tim Seymour
In fact, if it was last Friday, you wanted to buy it in the after hours and you might have and you're probably not feeling so great about it now. Just be careful about finding the companies that really aren't as positioned as they may appear either on paper or news articles may. But the bottom line is, and there are those that characterize this as America's next great energy crisis. And it's here to the extent that we know the importance of rare earth and so many of the leading edge technologies. And yet you find yourself where we are. So it's fantastic that we're fast tracking this. This is an administration that has not had any difficulty going after areas where there's been some question about environmental issues. Remember, 92% of rare earths from China we get are from refined Chinese.
- [40:53]
Melissa Lee
So coming up, you thought this week's earnings brought the fireworks. Just wait until next week's slate. What to expect when Netflix rolls out the red carpet right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix shares breaking a five day losing streak up over a percent as the company gets ready to report Q3 earnings on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley reaffirming its buy rating on the stock today, citing potential international except expansion and consistent subscriber growth. Shares down nearly 6% in the three months since its last report. What are you expecting, Von Win?
- [41:29]
Karen Finerman
You know, I'm, I'm expecting more of the same. It's really tough for me to get behind this name and I have been wrong and not long, for a very long time. I suspect that they're clearly the top in class. I, you know, I think they're continuing to take share from Linear TV and clearly they're the number one streamer they're moving into to live band, live music, live sports. I mean there's a lot to like there. I just wonder how much of this expectation has been pulled forward into the name and I just don't think that like there's much opportunity cost in terms of getting in front of this and perhaps guessing about what the earnings result may be rather than getting a little bit more clarity rather than trading an opaque name and what seems to be a three month sideways trend in the last quarter.
- [42:09]
Melissa Lee
They already said the margins would be lower in the second half versus the first half of the year. They're also facing a lot of competition. Obviously this hasn't changed from YouTube so sort of, you know, there's a lot and it's down 6% since its earnings which is sort of an interesting.
- [42:22]
Vonnie Quinn
Yeah, I mean it is expensive, right? It's expensive though because I think that it is worth it. I mean I think there's a couple of things that I think are really going to be interesting. I. How they use it, how they capture their audience and how they are able to continue to have those hours grow. That's one thing. The second thing is I don't think we'll see it quite yet but I am really optimistic on the cost of content going down materially with also advances as well. And so I'm not going to trade around this one really because it's too hard to get out back in and make it worthwhile. You got to, it's just too hard. I'm just knowing that I have an expensive stock but I'm hanging out to.
- [43:05]
Tim Seymour
It, which has been the right thing to do. But Bomber's right and you don't. I'm not sure it's going to get away from you here. So the multiple is scary and there are many in the analyst community that think you have to wait till they give you their, their annual guide in 26. I guess I just wonder what the next catalyst is. They could have anything up their sleeve. They have the size, they have the pricing power, they have the platform. It's just interesting there is competition and I know this is not what we think about Even with Apple, it should not move the stock. But they just did the deal with Formula one. Took it away from ABC and took it away. I mean there is a dynamic here where I think there are other big players that will compete.
- [43:42]
Melissa Lee
Carter, does this fall in the soft bucket?
- [43:46]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, it's such a champion. Doesn't fall in that bucket. But I mean I think the general conversation could be summarized as and all of you maybe feel this way. It's a do nothing moment. I mean Karen said maybe just you know, stand aside. It's not a particularly exciting pattern here and now by my work as a long or short.
- [44:03]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, Tesla shifting into high gear ahead of earnings next week. But can the EV maker put the pedal to the metal and drive more gains with the options market has to say about it. Next, more fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix not the only big name with earnings next week. Tesla gears up to report on Wednesday after a third quarter delivery beat. Shares have been in a range over the past month. But what will next week's report bring? Let's roll out an old school away with co Carter. So Carter, first to you on the technicals.
- [44:37]
Carter Braxton Worth
Sure. We got one chart. Let's get right to it. So the issue here is this is a stock of course from the 2nd of September, 2nd of October jumps 45%. And now just as you've characterized it, it's consolidating. Stuck in a range. I've put two arrows because I have no clue. I would leave it alone. It's 50. 50 jump ball or para twos.
- [44:56]
Melissa Lee
Para two is another one. Mike.
- [44:58]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, the busiest single stock option. Busiest single stock option by a good margin.
- [45:03]
Melissa Lee
About 4% of all the volume today.
- [45:05]
Karen Finerman
Options market implying a move of about 8.2%. And where the options traders are placing their bets are on the weekly 440 calls.
- [45:12]
Melissa Lee
We saw a good bit of those.
- [45:13]
Karen Finerman
Trading for just under 17 bucks a contract. So it seems like at the moment options traders are betting to the upside.
- [45:19]
Melissa Lee
What's your take on Tesla?
- [45:21]
Karen Finerman
I think I would look for some self defined type of option trade and it would probably be downside protection like buying a put spread.
- [45:28]
Melissa Lee
Tim.
- [45:29]
Tim Seymour
Soggy soft pair of tubes. I'm not a buyer.
- [45:33]
Steve Liesman
Sorry.
- [45:33]
Melissa Lee
Looks like it's really the theme of the show tonight. That's perfect. All right, up next, final trades. Thanks Mike. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn.
- [45:52]
Carter Braxton Worth
Carter Braxton worth coal miners especially vulnerable gdx.
- [45:56]
Melissa Lee
Sell it Timote.
- [45:58]
Tim Seymour
Not a stampeding bull but I'm an apple bull here and I like the tone.
- [46:03]
Melissa Lee
Karen yes.
- [46:04]
Vonnie Quinn
So I'm looking for places to not necessarily hide, but to spread out. But one that we've been talking about a lot where I think there's a lot of value is pph.
- [46:13]
Melissa Lee
It kept pharma like Bono in.
- [46:16]
Karen Finerman
I think if you look at the recent run in Baba, you've got to start to weigh the risk associated with continued us, you know, tensions. I'd be taking profits here.
- [46:24]
Melissa Lee
Thank you for watching Fast Money. Have a wonderful weekend. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer what made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
- [47:16]
Tim Seymour
I have no fear of failure.
- [47:18]
Melissa Lee
Trailblazing women, Changing the game One of my favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just. You just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.