← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Jobs Report, Tariff Threats Hit Stocks… And Tesla’s China Sales Drop 2/10/25
00:43:44
Stocks falling as investors digest a weaker-than-expected jobs report, all while tariff fears still hang overhead. How the numbers are affecting rates, and the impact tariffs could have on the broader market. Plus Tesla stalling out. Shares falling as the EV maker’s China sales fall. How domestic competition is ramping up… and if the stock can shake off the road bump. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org.
- [00:31]
Tim Seymour
Learn how to use AI.
- [00:33]
Karen Finerman
To be more successful with CNBC make.
- [00:35]
Tim Seymour
It'S new online course.
- [00:37]
Melissa Lee
We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.
- [00:41]
Tim Seymour
Go to CNBCmakeit.com AI and register now.
- [00:49]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ markets at the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is FAST money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Out of hikes to two major companies warning consumers cannot handle any more price increases. And with fresh tariffs on the horizon, could this price ceiling hurt margins and stocks in the months ahead? We'll debate that. Plus hedge fund billionaire David Teffer taking his buy everything in China to a whole new level. We'll have the details of his moves and ask of the traders if there's still time to follow his lead. And later, another record breaking day for gold. Could a potential move by the treasury be part of today's move Higher super micro super rebound ahead of earnings and a strong day for energy as an activist jumps bumps into the oil patch. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from CDP at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with two Dow components today signaling they might be hitting the ceiling on prices they can charge consumers. McDonald's seeing its worst US sales decline since the pandemic, saying in its earnings release it's seeing a drop in the average check size. And the Wall Street Journal reporting that a Disney World vacation is out of reach for many American families. US theme park operating income dropped 5% in the latest quarter quarter with attendance dropping 2%. As high prices for hotels foods fast passes push consumers away. So it appears consumers are now uttering the famous line from Popeye, I can't believe I'm going to say this. That's all I can stand and I can't stand no more. You don't have to. If that is the case, what does this mean for margins and stock prices in a world where companies cannot pass inflation along to their customers?
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Dan Nathan
Guy, I can't believe you did. You didn't have to do that.
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Guy Adami
And then you could have come back with I am what I am. And that's all that I am.
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Tim Seymour
I am olive oil, the whole thing.
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Melissa Lee
Too much could.
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Dan Nathan
I didn't.
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Guy Adami
Although it is hamburgers.
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Melissa Lee
You know, we are getting too caught up in the day today.
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Dan Nathan
Sorry.
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Guy Adami
Mel paid Tuesday for a hamburger today.
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Dan Nathan
So I think, you know, the international comps I think gave people some solace. I think the guidance was probably better than people were expecting. I think valuation at 25 times is not ridiculous. I think it's still sort of best in brand. I think you're right though to say, you know what, they're not able to pass the cost on so it's going to hurt margins. But you didn't really see it necessarily in terms of the guide. So for me, McDonald's, which is now I think at an all time high right around there. You got to stay with the name, I think.
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Melissa Lee
What do we make of all of this? I mean finally there's pushback by the consumer. I don't know. We've heard it about low income households for a very long time. But when you sort of pair it together with the Disney stuff and you're saying that $500 for the most premium Disney ticket for one day, who can.
- [03:23]
Guy Adami
Afford that for some, Well, I mean for some people that's, that's their trip of the year. That's the trip of a lifetime and it's worth it to them. I mean if you think about McDonald's, that demographic is, is not even totally a Disney demographic, frankly. And if you think about what McDonald's told you is that they actually have lower check sizes but they have more guests. That to me means their value meals working. So the stock was rewarded. Let's just be clear about this. Everything we're talking about is maybe a tell on where we could be going. Al that low income consumer was, it was about a year and a half that we were worried about ago that that low income consumer was front and center. But again, down 1.4 on US comps was worse than expected. They're making up with it. They're going to, they're going to launch 2200 new restaurants this year and between some that are closing, but it'll net out to about 1800 new locations. I mean this is a growth company. It's a growth company around the world. They've reset up how they do their business with their franchisees. The model works. I think you're buying any weakness in McDonald's and you might even be buying it here.
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Steve Kovac
I haven't looked at McDonald's a long time ago. I always thought it was Too expensive. The more I looked at this, I agree with both that this is not crazy here. It really isn't. And if you think about, you know, the business model with the franchise and obviously it's, it's a different business model. The margins are huge. But it's not so crazy. To your point about though, this, this low end consumer, to the extent that they're still employed, I think that they're still going to go. And if the, if the McDonald's of the world or the, or the Disney's of the world can find a way to just be a little more efficient and not change price, just hold firm on price, maybe deliver something else to the consumer that isn't so expensive for, I mean something that's cheap to McDonald's or cheap to Disney to do that, I think this game can kind of go on a little bit longer.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean they're talking about adding menu items like snack wraps and keeping up with the value part of the menu. Beverages are going to be a big thing because it's high margin to McDonald's and it's a small add on for a consumer.
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Karen Finerman
So we've seen Starbucks actually cut the menu. Right. So this is a company that's been having a hard time. It's not too different than this conversation we're having just happened probably a year or two earlier. But I'd broaden it out a little bit while we're on drinks. Constellation. Look at this thing is making four year lows. We've seen what's going on there. So we know beer, we know spirits is down a lot year over year. It's been going down for the last couple of years. But then you could look at iPhones, they're not growing here in the US and you know, that is a, you tell me, is it a staple, is it a discretionary item? Tesla's are not growing anymore right here in the US So is that discretionary, is it a staple? So I think you go all up and down, you know, I mean the consumer spectrum here and you see that there are plenty of consumer products that are slowing down and then throw tariffs and trade wars and throw, you know, specifically on some of these, you know, steel, aluminum, those sorts of things. I mean, I think folks should be ready for prices to go back up if we are kind of going to be in a trade war with some of our biggest trading partners. And then also dial it up with China.
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Dan Nathan
They got in front of the safety issue. They did a great job there. I mean within a couple of days they seemed to have their arms around it and they were rewarded. Margins improving, good for them. I think it speaks to, as Tim said, maybe, maybe, obviously prices are higher, but you're offsetting it by the number of people that are visiting their stores to be a 50,000 store restaurants by the end of 2027. It's a margin story, I think, and it is still a growth story. So I don't think at 25 times it stretched. And I think the environment that we find ourselves in, companies like McDonald's and Wal Mart for that matter, they win.
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Guy Adami
And it just, it seems like they can sweat out the competition. I mean if you think about they're winning this value war, when they come out with a value mill, which they came out a year ago, people are like, it's not going to be four months, like they said, it's probably going to be like five times that. So here we are at least three times past the duration of what it was supposed to be. And if you're the competition, you're very worried because they are picking up more guests, they are taking market share and they're opening more stores. So it's 25 times. As everybody said, that's pretty much in line. Does the stock deserve to be at a premium? I don't know. But again, given what's going on out there, I think we kind of, I think McDonald's has faced the abyss on the consumer. I think that that part of the story was when McDonald's was around to 40 and we were worried about margins and margins are fine.
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Melissa Lee
Right. So putting the McDonald's story aside and just dealing with Disney for just a moment, if we are to agree that they are not necessarily the same demographic and the argument about Disney is that they were, they were raising their prices. Raising, raising, raising and making consumers pay for things that were previously free. Right. Services fast pass all these things to increase their margins. Are we at a point now and is this a clue for this cohort? Maybe this is middle income households that they're pushing back because don't you, you said trip of a lifetime. Disney doesn't want you to go to Disney World once. They want you to go back again and again. But if you're going to pay up the wazoo. I can't believe I said that either.
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Guy Adami
Big night for you.
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Melissa Lee
I know. It's like the fast lane, first left and right. Then they're going to lose the customer later on.
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Steve Kovac
Well, is it the trip of a lifetime or they never take that trip? A lifetime to Disney, it might be they'd rather have that. Yeah, right. And having taken four children to Disney once, I can tell you I will never.
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Melissa Lee
I would for other reasons though.
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Steve Kovac
A lot of reasons.
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Karen Finerman
Yeah.
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Steve Kovac
So no, for Disney it's sort of a different value proposition in terms of, I think that deal of a lifetime is thing. But also there are, I mean Disney cruises as well. They, they can't, they can't sell enough of them. There is still a.
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Guy Adami
Don't we know there. We checked out a Disney together, the new Treasure.
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Melissa Lee
Actually we didn't actually go on a cruise. Just to be clear, in case I wanted to.
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Guy Adami
You ladies didn't want to go so.
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Karen Finerman
Well, there is a flip side of this too. Like you just mentioned cruises. Look at Royal Caribbean. If they can pull up a 10 year chart of this thing is trading at all time highs, it looks like they just cured cancer or something like that. And you know, I feel the same thing with the other one. It's a carnival is the other one.
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Melissa Lee
The value proposition for a cruise of that nature is much different from, you know, $500 for the most expensive.
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Karen Finerman
And then airlines, Tim's Airlines, I mean they've gone parabolic. United and Delta, maybe they're operating better. But again, we've seen parts of this kind of consumer discretionary trade act very well on the flip side.
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Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime, President Trump expected to announce blanket 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports potentially this hour. Our Eamon Javiers has been in Washington following it all day and he joins us now with the very latest EAM.
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Eamon Javers
Melissa, potentially in the next 20 minutes. We'll see. We're expecting the President to bring the White House pool reporters into the Oval Office for an event signing some executive orders. We expect that among the things that he'll do there is sign these new tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum imports into the United States. He will sign those tariffs at this event. But what we're not expecting now is this idea of reciprocal tariffs. That's something that we're told the President might do at a separate time or a separate day. We initially thought all this might be coming today. Not the case. These two things are moving on separate tracks. So watch for a separate announcement later on in the week. The other thing that we're tracking here is the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. One of the executive orders that the President is about to sign, I am told is related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. And what it's going to do is pause enforcement of that law. Now remember the, that's the law that says that American companies can't bribe foreign government officials in their pursuit of business. Trump wants to pause the enforcement of that while the new Department of Justice passes new enforcement guidelines to American companies, telling them what it's going to enforce and what it's not going to enforce under that anti bribery statute. That's going to be controversial. Melissa. As soon as the president signs it, you're going to see a lot of people out there saying, look, this is opening the doors to wanton corruption around the world by American companies. You're going to see other people though, who say, hey, wait a second, this law has held back American companies for years. They haven't been able to compete on a level playing field with their global counterparts because America has a higher standard when it comes to this anti corruption effort than other countries do necessarily. And so they're going to say that's a win for big business. Business has chafed under the Foreign Corrupt Practices act in the past. We'll see what the exact language here is is. Melissa. But that's one to watch as well.
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Melissa Lee
So other kids are doing it, so we should be able to do it too. I mean, that's seems like sort of an odd argument.
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Eamon Javers
That's the argument.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah. Eamon. Thank you. Eamon Jabbers.
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Eamon Javers
You bet.
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Dan Nathan
Yeah, I don't know what that means. I mean, the standard for corruption should be no corruption. There shouldn't be levels of corruption that are accepted.
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Melissa Lee
A little bit of corrupt, but that's very corrupt.
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Dan Nathan
But you know, you know, maybe, you know, you just bring a whole new set of rules and enforce it in a different way. I have no idea, but it sounds like, it sounds somewhat problematic to me just on the surface.
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Melissa Lee
But maybe the definition of what a bribe is is in question in terms of. Forget it. We're going to leave this topic. I'm not going to try and justify this. For more on what Trump's latest terrorist threat could mean for markets and how to navigate them, let's bring in Hamilton Lane Co CEO Eric Hersh. Eric, great to have you with us.
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Tim Seymour
Melissa, Good to be back.
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Melissa Lee
How do you view tariffs when it comes to the impact on companies, something that you look through or something that you have to factor in?
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Tim Seymour
Well, I think the big question is are tariffs today actually tariffs or are they negotiating tactics? I think the reason that the stock market is sort of ignoring them generally as across the market, obviously some company specific exceptions is that right now I think the market is saying until proven otherwise, we view these as a negotiating tactic. We don't view these as actually permanent tariffs. If that proves to be wrong, then I think we're going to see a significant market correction as a result of that.
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Melissa Lee
What is significant?
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Tim Seymour
Well, I think you're going to see it by sector, but I think this is going to be a public market where we're going to be sort of operating kind of driving in the rearview mirror. I think in past administrations you've sort of seen announcements or people have thought announcements were coming and the market has reacted in advance. I think with this administration, it's much more likely that you're going to have to sort of see people prove it to me before we actually price all of that in. And so more likely we could see announcements come market really kind of shaking it off and then waking up in the future and all of a sudden saying, oh, this is real, this is happening, this is now, and this is more material. And then you start to see market corrections.
- [13:33]
Karen Finerman
You know, back in 2018, we saw some exclusions to Chinese tariffs, Apple in particular with the iPhone. Do you expect to see those sorts of exclusions? Especially when you think about some of our largest multinationals, the tech companies, CEOs have kind of cozied up to the administration, but also some like Tim Cook and Elon Musk have also cozied up to President Xi. So it's kind of interesting situation. I'm just curious how you kind of fall out on that.
- [13:57]
Tim Seymour
I think we're going to see exceptions in some cases, just given what the supply chain globally looks like. Even if you look at steel, there are sort of aspects of very technically manufactured steel that are only available at a certain suppliers, and those suppliers today are not the United States. And so that is either there's going to be an exception or there's going to be a real slowdown in certain sectors because of an inability to get certain products. I think you're certainly seeing the administration want to onshore in a significant way and that's going to happen. But as we all know, that isn't going to happen overnight. And so either we're going to suffer through some product shortfalls, some significant inflation in certain sectors, or we're going to have to see some exceptions and let this sort of build out over time until you can kind of reassure certain manufacturing back here in the U.S. eric is Tim.
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Guy Adami
So I just try to kind of cut through to. It seems like looking at, you know, what you say we could have a 2020 moment for markets, and there's a supply chain at least dynamic, that could lead us to Some of those places. Is this really ultimately, again, the fallout of tariffs being poor policy, leading to economic fallout, leading to a growth scare for markets? I'm just trying to really just connect the dots here.
- [15:15]
Tim Seymour
I think if we sit back here and we say, okay, everything that has been discussed threatened becomes reality. I think the inflationary impact is significant. I think some supply demand imbalances are also significant. And so I think you would see a significant market correction. But I think today it seems unlikely, based on historical information, the posture of the administration today, the reaction to other countries and other sectors, that it just doesn't seem today that all of these are going to go into full effect as currently advertised. Again, I go back to my earlier statement. This feels more like effective negotiating tactics, but negotiating tactics nonetheless.
- [15:56]
Melissa Lee
You like US manufacturers, Eric, under, under all scenarios, whether there are tariffs, whether there are no tariffs, is it simply a reassuring play?
- [16:06]
Tim Seymour
I see, I see that and I see that both in the public sector and frankly, the private sector. If you look at what's happening in our industry, the private sector, you're seeing a real focus right now on bringing jobs back, putting significant capital into domestic manufacturing facilities, adjusting domestic supply chain and thinking about where you are sourcing materials and beginning to alter that. But again, not all of that is possible overnight. It's not possible instantaneously. And so I think this is a short term pain potential for some longer term gain. But as an investor, pricing that through, figuring out when you're going to lean in, when you're not, I think is a huge problem. It's one of the big reasons why coming out of the gate, people had said, well, once the election is over, we're going to see a real uptick in M and A volume. And we've actually seen the exact opposite M and A volume, year over year coming down, is right now down for the calendar year. And I think because a lot of uncertainty, so we're not seeing this huge robust IPO market, we're not seeing a lot of M and A activity. And that's because I think people are still in a very much of a wait and see mode.
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Melissa Lee
Eric, great to speak with you. Thanks.
- [17:12]
Tim Seymour
Pleasure. Thank you.
- [17:14]
Melissa Lee
Eric Hirsch, Manufacturers Yes. You love that.
- [17:18]
Steve Kovac
I do. Except I do think this is potentially extremely inflationary.
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Melissa Lee
Right.
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Steve Kovac
We Talked about this 2020 supply chain logistic issue. If you're a manufacturer and you import steel, what do you do now? Do you wait? Do you see what happens? Do you have some already? Do you preorder? Remember, we got into that situation 2020 in a huge way. Maybe will smaller, but it's seems inflationary to me.
- [17:40]
Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime, a group led by Elon Musk is making a move more than $97 billion offer for control of Open Air, potentially complicating Sam Altman's plans to make it a for profit company. Steve Kovac's got the details. Steve.
- [17:54]
Peter Boockvar
Hey there, Melissa. Yeah, this was a unsolicited offer coming from Musk and these financial backers that you just mentioned. The number here is $97.4 billion. Now this is just for the nonprofit parent of OpenAI. This is not the same for profit entity or the CAT profit rather that's being transitioned to a for profit entity. And by the way, this is coming from the same lawyer behind Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI in which he is trying to block them from turning into that. And you said this could complicate the deals to turn into a for profit company. Well, Sam Altman, the CEO is not buying this. He tweeted as a response. He declined the offer, but he did offer to buy Twitter for a tenth of what they're offering for OpenAI. 9.74 billion. As a reminder, Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion. So that would be quite a discount there. Musk responded in a tweet called Altman a swindler. That's all we got for now. So some very interesting back and forth there between these two billionaires. In the meantime, the Wall Street Journal also showing some of these backers, they include a lot of people around Elon Musk's orbit. That means Valor Equity Partners, the venture capital firm 8 VC Ari Emanuel of Endeavor and Xi. That is Elon Musk's startup for artificial intelligence. That is part of that lawsuit. Now speaking of the lawsuit, guys, last week the judge in the lawsuit, they had their first hearing. She said she was unlikely to block OpenAI's transition to a for profit company. This thing is going to go to trial. That could in part explain why we got this offer today. And in the meantime, there's more money just coming out. OpenAI, our Kate Rooney and David Faber have been reporting the last couple of days that OpenAI is in the process of raising money from SoftBank at a $300 billion or more valuation. That's up from the current valuation of of $157 billion. Now the question also comes what does Musk gain by just owning this nonprofit arm? Part of it could be a response to what we learned in court last week and take some control over OpenAI's. Technology. But at the same time it sounds like Sam Altman at least and most likely the board has no appetite for this kind of offer and it's just going to have to play out in court.
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Melissa Lee
Melissa all right, Steve, thank you. Steve Kovac. Dan, what do you make of this?
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Karen Finerman
Well, I mean go back to that Stargate announcement, right when Sam Altman got in there, he did a little and around on Elon. He was up there with Larry Ellison and Masa son. I mean I just can't imagine how this is not going to end in tears. We got Elon really close to the president. For all of these guys, I mean, I mean that think about Elon, think about Sam Altman, think about Satya Nadella, think about Sundar, think about Mark Zuckerberg. Think about all the way these guys are competing as it relates to different models, different prerogatives, different data, you know, like, you know, infrastructure and that sort of stuff. I just don't know. They all hate each other. That's the other thing. Like none of them like each other and they're all competing. And so throw Jeff Bezos in there too. What you look at me like, I.
- [20:49]
Melissa Lee
Mean I understand what you're saying. I don't, I don't see how Mark Zuckerberg ends up in tears. I feel like meta well, they all.
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Karen Finerman
Have TikTok gets bought by Elon or TikTok gets bought by Microsoft.
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Melissa Lee
Elon has said he's not interested in TikTok.
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Karen Finerman
Well, Microsoft, how does that end up for Mark Zuckerberg? I mean my point is, is like there's so many different ways. This is like they're all going to.
- [21:08]
Guy Adami
Be pissing a technical question. Also here just on this headline is is how much of the for profit company does the nonprofit company hold? I mean it seems to me this is the tactic and I don't really totally understand how that works. Does anybody know?
- [21:19]
Steve Kovac
I don't understand. I don't understand if there's any obligation for them to sell at all. I don't understand the mechanism to make it. It's not like, you know, there's shares out there and the Right, right. I don't, I don't get how but.
- [21:32]
Guy Adami
Raising the awareness that the for profit business is inherently evil is part of what these headlines are all about. And again I, you know, I'm not commenting on that. In other words, I don't necessarily know that that is true, but that is part of what this offer is trying to play out.
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Melissa Lee
Coming up, all in on the China trade Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper increasing his big bet on China as policymakers in Beijing weigh even more stimulus measures. The names and ETFs he's doubling down on next and the robo rideshare rollout Mobileye surging as Lyft makes big plans in the driverless tech space. How the two are coming together in the competition from Uber that could be hiding in their blind spot. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two.
- [22:18]
Tim Seymour
Learn how to use AI to be more successful with cnbc. Make it's new online course.
- [22:24]
Melissa Lee
We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.
- [22:28]
Tim Seymour
Go to CNBC, make it.com/AI and register now.
- [22:36]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Chinese e commerce stocks and the ETFs that track them popping today on news that billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper is continuing to pile money into China. The Appaloosa founder doubling down in the fourth quarter. New 13 filings. Remember he told Squawk Box back in September that that he was buying everything related to China. The filing also revealing Tepper trim positions in megacap tech names including Amazon, Metta and Oracle. Tim, what do you make of this move?
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Guy Adami
Well, it's all relative, right to your positioning. When you hear his increase his position in JD by 43% it's like okay, you know, but when you see that Alibaba is 15.6% of his portfolio and this is a massive portfolio that's impressive. As someone that thinks Alibaba is going significantly higher myself and is not necessarily tethered to what's going on on tariff news, I look, I love this call. David Tepper certainly has not been afraid to put his money where his mouth is and be very concentrated and have it pay off for him. He's doing that here.
- [23:33]
Melissa Lee
Be in tube.
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Dan Nathan
It is the B and tube. You know it's funny because I sort of went back and forth between Boeing and Baba, but right now it looks like I made the right choice. But I'll say this, I'm with Tim and the big short guys thought Bob was probably 40% too cheap. I think they're going to wind up being right. And when David Tepper said that in September, October 2nd was the ball's high for all of those names. You heard me. They round trip but now they're back on the horse and this time I don't think it's stopping at 118 soccer balls.
- [24:01]
Guy Adami
Oh yeah, okay.
- [24:03]
Steve Kovac
Well I think he famously has on his desk.
- [24:06]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, yeah.
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Steve Kovac
Anyway, no, I'm long as well. You know, I agree with both. They said when David Tepper makes a huge call, he's very good and not very often that he makes a huge call like that. Interesting to me, the stock continued to go lower. This is a filing that ends as of December 31st. Right. So the stock went down from 85 to 80 and wouldn't be shocked if he added some more. I mean, if he loved it at whatever price, he loved it at 80 in the bottom. So I don't know, I like it. I think it's, I mean, it's still ridiculously cheap even with all of the, you know, warnings about it being a big Chinese company.
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Karen Finerman
Yeah. It's interesting though that they're consumer facing names. Right. So you talk about this consumer that's had a difficult time in China and then I look at a Wynn Resorts and they get half their sales from cow. And that thing went up the way all those other things did in September in a straight line and now it's down about 27% from there. And so this has nothing to do with stock picking. It's just kind of interesting that you would think that that would have had some of the same sort of tailwinds that some of these consumer Internet names have, and it just hasn't. So I think there's going to be winners and losers and the ones that just got too cheap like an Alibaba. And you guys have been talking about it for months and months. It just thinks they were kind of like coiled springs. It was going to take a lot to get them going.
- [25:20]
Melissa Lee
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [25:24]
Tim Seymour
Revving up the robo taxis. Uber and Lyft racing to get driverless rideshares on the road. And the stocks behind the tech are fueling up on the plans. The names that could be steering your next ride ahead. Plus gold shining to fresh record highs as one of President Trump's new hires looks to revalue the yellow metal. How it could boost the treasury balance sheet. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. Learn how to use AI to be.
- [26:02]
Karen Finerman
More successful with CNBC make it's new online course.
- [26:06]
Melissa Lee
We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.
- [26:10]
Tim Seymour
Go to CNBCmakeit.com AI and register now.
- [26:17]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Lyft's robo taxi plans are kicking into high gear. The company announcing a partnership with Mobileye to bring robo taxis to Dallas, Texas as soon as next year. Lyft gaining more than 6% while Mobileye surged nearly 12%. Rideshare rival Uber, who's partner partnering with Google's Waymo on robo taxis, rising 5% in sympathy. I mean it's quite a. Mobileye reported disappointing guidance and got smashed. And here we are up 12% today.
- [26:44]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. On Wednesday, if I'm not mistaken, Uber sold off significantly and Tim Seymour on his final trade said the sell off is overdone. Uber, that was 64 and a half, 65. Look at it now. And he's spot on. Now you have other people, listen, this was at the end of last year. I think two or three different banks put this on their conviction buy list or best trade ideas when it was trading around 60 bucks. I agree and I think there's more room. The upside, now you have the Ackman seal of approval. I think there's more to go.
- [27:14]
Steve Kovac
I find it interesting as an Alphabet holder that Waymo has no place in the conversation at all despite having a real business. And, and, but I think Uber is really interesting here. I mean I own a tiny bit, which is worse than owning none actually because you feel like you're close, but you really blew it. Good for you guys. Nice. Well, they didn't hurt.
- [27:35]
Guy Adami
You know, it's, it's not like I was swinging for the fences on that one. I mean, I think Lyft, who's going to report tomorrow, is actually going to have a really solid quarter. I think they're going to talk about everything from bookings being, you know, increasing and getting back to a level that they're actually excited about taking back some market share. They're going to talk about partnerships, including doordash partnership and the positive price effect. So I think those are things for a company that has really very little priced into it, especially with a management team that is relatively new, taking over for a management team that I think had zero credibility and therefore I see upside.
- [28:07]
Melissa Lee
What's interesting about this tie up is that it really, it sort of opens a door on how exactly there is a place for the likes of an Uber or Lyft in the world of driverless taxis. Because in this deal Lyft has the platform like an Uber, connects the consumer to the driver, but the technology is provided by mobileye and the fleet, which was a question, who owns the fleet? The fleet is going to be owned by a subsidiary which owns a lot of. They just do fleet management.
- [28:30]
Karen Finerman
No one wants to own the fleets. This is going to be a big disaster for all these companies who have big plans here. And you know, with Lyft, I know why you put it as the L in your Bly SAP last year is it's got a five and a half billion dollar enterprise value. You know what I mean? Like 2 billion of that is in cash. Right? And so you think about this name. If anyone has designs on Robotaxis and doing this stuff, you just kind of load this thing up and you try to figure out how to implement it. But I think there's going to be a huge issue for Tesla's Robotaxi. Who the heck wants hundreds of thousands of these things, you know, actually own them and put them on their balance sheet, that sort of thing. So I think you take the over on all these things. I love Waymo. I think if Waymo can figure it out with Uber, I think it's going to be a pretty much a winner take all for the first ones that get mass deployment.
- [29:13]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, sitting on a gold mine. Another fresh record high for the precious metal as a potential move out of the treasury points to an even more gains in gold. The change that can boost the balance sheet and keep the safe haven surging. The details on fast money returns welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks kicking off the week in the green. The Dow jumping 167 points, S&P up nearly 7.10of a percent and the tech heavy NASDAQ leading the charge up nearly 1%. Shares of Metta continuing its record run, hitting another fresh all time high, notching its 16th straight day of gains, extending its longest winning streak on record. The stock is up more than 17% in that time. Shares of Monday.com surging more than 26% percent. The cloud company beating EPS and revenue estimates as well as coming in above expectations for the full year outlook. Take two Interactive hitting a fresh all time high. The video game maker updating timing for some of its new releases including Grand Theft Auto 6 which they say will come out this fall. And some after hours action. Vertex on the move after missing on earnings expectations but beating revenue estimates. And lattice semi surging after reporting Q1 guidance above X expectations. Well, it appears the Trump administration is in brainstorm mode when it comes to containing the massive budget deficit on the table, revaluing the country's gold reserves and creating 50 to 100 year bonds. Investor Peter Boockvar tackling the viability of these ideas in a note today. Peter, a CNBC contributor joins us now. He's the Bleakley Financial Group Chief Investment Officer. Peter, great to have you with us?
- [30:51]
Eric Hersh
Hi Melissa.
- [30:52]
Melissa Lee
Explain to us the mechanics of marking to market the gold reserves and what that does for Treasury.
- [30:59]
Eric Hersh
So in 1934 the Fed transferred their gold holdings to the treasury and in return got this gold certificate. In 1973 that gold, which totals about 260 million ounces or 8100ish tons, was valued at $42. So on the books of the treasury right now the gold's worth about $10 billion. But in reality with gold at around 2900, those holdings actually total north of 800 billion. So I'm hearing chatter and the Financial Times over the weekend in an editorial talked about the possibility that the treasury in a relationship with the Fed in terms of gold certificates or maybe a repo or other ways of basically injecting the difference between the current mark of 10 billion, I'm sorry the current old mark really of 10 billion and what would be a new market, 800 plus billion. And that cash would get injected to the treasury general account.
- [32:00]
Melissa Lee
So why does gold go higher in that scenario?
- [32:05]
Eric Hersh
Well, it at least maybe would put a floor under the price of gold. Now what would push it higher? We'll have to see. I think there's still other factors that have been in place over the last couple of years like voracious central bank buying and gold becoming a really important sort of clearing of reserve transactions. China for example, having $1 trillion of surplus, well they're less and less recycling that in US Treasuries and they're doing in gold. I think those trends continue on but maybe just putting a floor underneath and really just telling people about the importance of gold in this world financial system that we're currently in right now.
- [32:47]
Dan Nathan
I think that's exactly the point. I mean it's not necessarily that it's bullish for gold but it just puts a spotlight on what gold means and the importance of it. I think the bear case people say well that will allow them to sell it but I don't think that's really what's going on at all. I mean if they were to sell it today they would reap the mark to market gain. So it's not really where it's valued at, it's just putting a spotlight on the importance. Can you speak to that?
- [33:11]
Eric Hersh
They have no interest in selling gold. This is just a sort of an on one hand the criticism. Criticism can be it's an accounting gimmick, it's a one time thing, it's a one time injection of cash. But I think the administration is looking at a Variety of different things to deal with the excessive debts and deficits we have. I mean, Scott Besson, when he said he's focused on the long end, he was not kidding. He's looking at many different things to keep the 10 year sort of in check and not to see a retest of five, because if you blew through that, you're talking five and a half and six. He wants no part of that. So they're looking at a lot of different ways of trying to avoid it.
- [33:50]
Melissa Lee
And speaking of long end, I mean in your note you're talking about an even longer end, a 50 or 100 year bond. That idea was floated in the first Trump administration. Never happened. What are you hearing now in terms of existing bondholders, treasury holders being able to swap out for a longer, theoretical, longer term bond?
- [34:11]
Eric Hersh
Yes. So this would not be sort of your standard treasury issuance. Let's sell 50 to 100 year bonds because we know the liquidity there as seen with the 20 year is pretty thin. This is something again, trying to be creative on their part about swapping or trying to convince foreign holders of Treasuries to swap some of these holdings for 50 or 100 year treasuries that they would have limited ability to sell. The Fed would then create a potential facility allowing them to pledge that if they wanted to repo it. But the Financial Times article talked about this and sort of strong arming some of our foreign friends and their holdings to take this 50 or 100 year paper. Again, another brainstorming exercise trying to terminate our debt and even make it zero coupon so they don't have to pay an interest expense on it. Of some of the things in dealing with the financial situation that we're currently.
- [35:12]
Melissa Lee
In right now, Peter, we've got to let you go. Thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it. Peter, really fascinating. What do you make of it though?
- [35:21]
Guy Adami
I think these are great things. I really do. I think the United States should be pushing influence around the world and getting something back. And it's similar to even, you know, there's an element, you know, we all know that tariffs aren't great in terms of, you look at history in terms of their economic impact, but using them as a stick anyway, this is about reasserting the influence that the United States has and doing something with it. While gold is moving higher, copper is moving higher. And if you look across the metal space and you look across even the commodity space, they're all going higher. So if the dollar has peaked in the short term and unrelated but Somewhat related to the conversation we just had. If rates have peak peaked, I think, you know, everything attached to this, including gold, is going to go higher. I like the copper trade. Copper miners, if you look at Freeport, if you look at Southern Copper, these are names that are nowhere near 52 week highs. In fact well off their highs. I think they look interesting.
- [36:07]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. Since I mean the spotlight now is on gold for the right reasons and you know, Tim has talked about this over the weekend. Chinese are giving their insurance companies a green light to buy gold, to invest in gold, which is just one more, just one more of many reasons to think this trade is far from over.
- [36:23]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a chip check on two big semi moves. SMCI surging as investors gear for earnings tomorrow while in video extends its recovery. The trade on both the names next and a BP bump. Shares of the energy giant jumping nearly 7% as one activist investor pumps up its stake. The changes they could be looking for into the shakeup could restore the stock to its glory days. Gas money is back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Supermicro on a hot streak, notching its fifth 7% plus gain in a row. Shares of the server maker jumping almost 16. Excuse me, 18% today, ahead of a key earnings report tomorrow. Investors hoping to get more clarity on Super Micro's compliance plan to avoid getting delisted by the Nasdaq. Shares now up nearly 60% in the last week, but they are still down more than 20% since Hindenburg Research first raised red flags over its accounting practices back in August. You had been in that name flee in and out.
- [37:27]
Steve Kovac
Well so if they are able to maintain or delay the being kicked off the Nasdaq, which maybe they'll be able to do. It is worth noting though there's a 16ish percent short interest. So I don't know what happens here, but I wouldn't be long.
- [37:42]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, two times normal volume today. A lot of people are getting squeezed. There's going to be. There will be another place to reenter a short and it probably comes in a form of like 70ish dollars but that's light years from where we're trading right now, so buyer beware.
- [37:56]
Melissa Lee
All right, meantime, speaking of meme kind of stocks, GameStop leaping almost 10% on speculation the company is plotting a new strategy around crypto CEO Ryan Cohen posting a photo to X over the weekend with Michael Saylor, chairman of MicroStrategy, which is recently rebranded as just strategy. No additional context given in the Expo. Strategy shares also finishing the day higher. So is a picture Worth a thousand words or a few percentage points.
- [38:25]
Karen Finerman
Well, I mean what sellers probably doing is trying to get them to convert part of their balance sheet. Right. To do that and you tell me is it going to start to trade at a multiple relative to the crypto that they own on their balance sheet? I mean that's in the microstrategy sort of thing. So you keep selling, you know, shares or debt in which to buy it. I just don't think that's going to end particularly well for someone who doesn't have like a Michael Saylor and that sort of commitment to it. The last thing I'll just say on this is like, look at Roku, look at a firm, look at Carvana. There's a lot of meme stocks like picking up their heads again here. So again it just seems like, like a squeezy sort of market right now.
- [38:56]
Guy Adami
Yeah, we've, we've heard of multiple different strategies at GameStop and it's always a kind of a half baked conversation. I mean this may be different and clearly attaching crypto to anything and Michael Saylor might be their best shot.
- [39:08]
Melissa Lee
It reminds me of when everything was just sort of, you know, Long island blockchain kind of thing instead of Long island or whatever it was. Yeah, just attach the name, attach whatever and it goes up and it works.
- [39:20]
Dan Nathan
I mean, you know, again, microstrategy strategy now I think has 475,000 Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Average price is about 65,000. As long as the price keeps going up, they can buy in perpetuity. The problem of course is if they continue to buy and the price starts going lower, you get to an equilibrium around 75,000 potentially. And then things start to get really interesting really quick. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but that's really what you have to watch for. Higher average price, lower bitcoin price coming.
- [39:48]
Melissa Lee
Up, shares of BP jumping as one activist investor gets involved. The stake they built and the changes that could be coming for this energy giant. That is next. And throughout February we are celebrating black heritage. Here's the CEO of Eaton Corp. Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got some more breaking news from the White House. Eamon Javors has got the details. Eamon.
- [40:37]
Eamon Javers
Hey there, Melissa. Well, President Trump is in the Oval Office right now. He's brought reporters in and he's taken a number of actions including signing those new tariffs into action that we'd expected. 25% on aluminum and steel coming into the United States. The President Saying to reporters that there will be no exemptions to those tariffs, raising the possibility maybe of an Australian exemption. We'll have to try to get some more clarity on what that means. The president also saying that he's looking at additional tariffs on cars, chips and pharmaceuticals. The president saying he's going to hold off on those reciprocal tariffs that we talked about earlier in terms of tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on the US that he said he's going to do over the next two days. So those are still to come. The 25% on steel and aluminum is now in effect. Couple things on the corruption front, right, we talked about this Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. That's the anti bribery statute. The president has now signed an executive order in which he's ordering a pause in enforcement of the anti bribery statute. He wants the Department of Justice to take a look at that and figure out new guidance to companies of what they can do under that law in terms of interacting with foreign government officials. Remember, the law prevents American companies from bribing government officials overseas. The business community has complained about that over the years, saying that that's unduly restrictive to them. The enforcement of it is sometimes unfair. Trump now wants a pause on that. Also on the corruption issue, he's just issued a pardon to Rod Blagojevich, the former Democratic Illinois governor. Remember Rod Blagojevich back in 2000, was convicted and served jail time for his role in an effort to, in effect, sell a U.S. senate seat. When Barack Obama became president, his Senate seat was available. Blagojevich's actions to corruptly try to take advantage of that opening led to his conviction. He's now been pardoned here today by Donald Trump. Back over to you.
- [42:32]
Melissa Lee
All right, Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javors. Meantime, shares of BP surging almost 7% and reports activist investor Elliott is building a stake in the oil giant. Elliott and BP now commenting on these reports, the reports on BP helping the energy sector ETF up 2% today. BP, we should note, real laggard in terms of performance versus peers. Exxon as well as Chevron here. What do you think?
- [42:53]
Guy Adami
I think BP is probably the cheapest integrated by far. I think the capital structure of the analyst community will point out that they should be issuing more debt and not buying back stock that they're, you know, they have a cash flow machine on the upstream side of their business and that they should actually take advantage of that.
- [43:07]
Dan Nathan
The high end BP, the stock I think was 18 years ago and it's been a complete underperformer ever since. A lot of room to run But XLE at 90 bucks to me is still cheap here moms.
- [43:17]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade him.
- [43:35]
Guy Adami
Guy there's something in your tube. I think it's the be in your tube. What is that?
- [43:39]
Melissa Lee
Is it a B?
- [43:39]
Guy Adami
What is that?
- [43:40]
Melissa Lee
The be?
- [43:40]
Dan Nathan
Hard to say.
- [43:41]
Guy Adami
The be in your tube sounds painful. Alibaba thank you.
- [43:45]
Steve Kovac
Karen Yes, A in my carved also, just so you know, tomorrow we see Zillow reporting what a huge run it's had, but I would actually be a seller of some upside Z calls.
- [43:56]
Karen Finerman
Dan yeah, I think Lyft Tim's lift from the blind SAP here. I think it's doing fine here. I think Lyft is going to participate in the robo taxi revolution.
- [44:05]
Dan Nathan
Guy don't need Tim infiltrating my tube. Happy Birthday, Jim Cramer from your Fast Money and ccj.
- [44:12]
Melissa Lee
Mel all right, thanks for watching Fast Mad Money with Jim Cramer. Happy Birthday starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward/fastmoneydisclaimer.
- [45:01]
Tim Seymour
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Melissa Lee
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