← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Weighs In… And Trump Sounds Off On Walmart 5/19/25
00:43:42
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon weighing in on tariffs, trade, succession plans, and more. Why he sees investment banking revenues declining, and the economic uncertainty weighing on his outlook. Plus President Trump sounding off on Walmart, as the retail giant announces tariff-fueled price hikes. Why he’s telling them to “eat it”... and the broader tariff implications for the retail space. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC As America's leading business lender, bank of America is on.
- [00:36]
Guy Adami
Your corner and in your corner. With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation.
- [00:45]
Melissa Lee
We help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do?
- [00:50]
Guy Adami
Learn more@bankofamerica.com LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official.
- [00:55]
Melissa Lee
Bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Jamie Dimon's big warning. The JP Morgan CEO suggesting dealmaking is still under pressure. What he had to say about M and A, the markets and his retirement plans. And eat the tariffs the president set by President Trump's demands on Walmart and the impact it could have on the entire retail space. Plus, UnitedHealth on the rebound after last week's route. Netfl shrugs off a downgrade for one big Wall street firm. And all the details from Nvidia's Computex keynote what its latest platform means for the next steps in AI. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Guy Adami and Danny Moses, founder of Moses Ventures. We start off with the dealmaking warning that sent shares of JP Morgan sharply lower in early trade. CEO Jamie Dimon saying he expects investment banking revenues to decline in the second quarter as economic uncertainty persists. His words sending the stock down more than 2% at the lows of the session. For more on what the banking exact had to say about the environment and the broader markets, let's bring in Leslie Picker who joins us here on set. Leslie?
- [02:07]
Karen Feinerman
Hey, Mel.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [02:08]
Karen Feinerman
That second quarter guidance revealing that investment banking would be down by mid teens percent year over year, also sending shares lower among JP Morgan's peers like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. JP Morgan also said its markets division comprising of sales and trading expects growth in the mid to high single digits year over year. This comes after a blockbuster first quarter, though but co CEO of commercial investment bank Troy Rohrbaugh noting that the volatility has moderated and therefore potential returns have as well. Succession also in focus, diamond saying it's up to the board as to whether he's CEO for more years and maybe two as three or two or three as executive chairman. While caveating that that timeline is, quote, a long time. Dimon fielding a lot of questions about the macro picture as well. He characterized the current geopolitical risk as being, quote, very, very, very high. Dimon said people feel good because they haven't seen the effect of tariffs. Calling the market round trip a quote, extraordinary amount of complacency. He said even with today's current rates, the tariffs are still, quote, pretty extreme.
- [03:21]
Melissa Lee
Now, I think he made the point that 10% across 4 tariffs, that would still be the highest level since 1971. So we're talking about very high levels. Also, stagflation, not off the table does tend to be conservative, though. In general, though.
- [03:33]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah. He said stagflation was essentially part of their scenario planning and it's one that he thinks is actually double as likely as the markets are expecting. He also noted credit being a particular point of concern. They're noting that in a recession, those losses could be even bigger than what we're used to in recessions, and saying that, you know, he would not personally be a buyer of credit right now. He thinks it's a really risky space.
- [03:56]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I thought that was a particularly interesting comment, that he really thought that credit spreads are nowhere near wide enough. But, you know, normally he tries to have this balance of being conservative, as you said. But also he's very rah rah usa, right. American ingenuity and all of that. And he'd also talked about the market he thought was too high, that the 21 multiple is probably too high. But I'm surprised, though, with the capital markets. I would have thought Liberation Week was one of the craziest weeks ever, maybe ever, in terms of, of, you know, volatility and volume. So there was a lot to like here. Nothing wildly different than what you'd expect from him, I thought, though the timeframe of his. His tenure was a little longer than I was expecting, which I like that.
- [04:43]
Melissa Lee
Oh, really? Because before you rather, he's free.
- [04:46]
Danny Moses
Has frees up some time possibly.
- [04:50]
Tim Seymour
But I am long.
- [04:53]
Danny Moses
Gotcha.
- [04:53]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, well, that was kind of the question that was posed to diamond at the Investor Day was basically like someone had looked at ChatGPT and they'd asked the computer what pop culture icon ChatGPT thought Jamie Dimon reminded them of. And the computer spit out Ironman and he said ironman never retires, so why should you? Basically that was kind of the feeling in the room. So I think Dimon was perhaps responding to that. But yeah, I think there were several analyst notes that said suggested that if he said anything shorter than say two or three years in terms of his tenure as CEO, that would be a negative for the stock. Anything more than that would be a positive for the stock. So we kind of didn't really get too much in the way of specifics, but it wasn't shorter.
- [05:37]
Leslie Picker
Great to start the show with Leslie.
- [05:39]
Melissa Lee
Here on set with it's rare fun number two.
- [05:43]
Leslie Picker
You know, blockchain is not as big a deal, doesn't matter as much as you think. I mean he's been a crypto skeptic but thoughts on that comment?
- [05:50]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, that was his. The first question I of the gate which was a little surprising. You know, he's definitely not a crypto supporter. He's on a bitcoin supporter. He said the firm would custody bitcoin. He would, you know, they would support crypto from that capacity. But he, he kind of analogized it to, you know, like, I don't think you should smoke, but if you want to smoke, I'm not going to stop you.
- [06:11]
Tim Seymour
But they don't.
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Melissa Lee
You want to trade.
- [06:12]
Tim Seymour
You can't buy bitcoin if you're a JP Morgan.
- [06:14]
Karen Feinerman
He said they would. Right now custody crypto is kind of the plan for the future for the firm.
- [06:20]
Guy Adami
I don't think he said anything that was shocking. He's always conservative. It is the one bank that touches Wall street and also touches the consumer. So you get a little bit of everything. Did take up a little bit of credit loss assumptions potentially in 2026 that goes along with slowing economy. I will say there was an executive that talked about the impact of AI and we've talked about. I know you guys have talked about on the show they expect potentially a 10% workforce reduction. We think about all the things that banks do. That's one you can imagine a lot can be done by AI. So I thought that was interesting.
- [06:47]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, that was Marianne Lake talking about. I think she was talking specifically about the operations element of CCB consumer banking essentially that they've been able to find a lot of efficiency with AI and their kind of back office, their ability to handle customer complaints and so forth, using agents to do that.
- [07:05]
Danny Moses
Well, and in terms of analogies, I mean Jamie Dimon has been, you know very much the weatherman over the last couple of years. And he uses meteorological terms. And, and it was a beautiful spring day here in New York, right, guys? You know.
- [07:18]
Leslie Picker
Yeah, we would call this for Yankee fans.
- [07:19]
Danny Moses
Yeah.
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Leslie Picker
Well, basking in the after low and.
- [07:21]
Danny Moses
It'S glory and it's great that they can feel like that they want it in May. And that's a sunny day. May. But, but again, it's a, it's. The question is, is Jamie Dimon. Was it a more important conversation for Jamie Dimon, Excuse me, for JP Morgan, the stock or for the stock market? And I think this is kind of like a Berkshire event. In other words, it really is a pulse check, both on the economy. In Jamie's case, he often thinks internationally. I mean, he, he put a lot of caution just around international dynamics and geopolitics, which we've heard before. I think that's absolutely fair. My biggest takeaway is lower multiple for the, for the S and P. I mean, that's really, if you boil it all down, what I heard is not. I don't think we care that much that, that JP Morgan's banking, investment banking down 15%. I don't think we really care as much about some of the dynamics, I think in terms of like one offs and some of the spend that they're going to have on AI, which is also going to lead though to I think, a higher margin. I think this was all about, hey, there's a lot of complacency out there. And after we've run 22% on the S and P off those intraday lows. It's also very interesting. The sense you got here is that Wall street is a lot more concerned than Main Street. And that's interesting. And I do mean retail traders versus institutional and I would argue the retail traders, the one that's been buying this dip.
- [08:33]
Karen Feinerman
Well, it's kind of interesting because you think about, and you know, the hard data versus the soft data, what JP Morgan is doing is they're not reserving more necessarily. They're not kind of paring back buybacks. They do have an excessive amount of capital, but kind of what they're doing doesn't necessarily suggest a slowdown, but the sentiment read that you get, you know, suggest that they're cautious and they're worried about what's going on geopolitically, they're worried about what's going on with the tariffs. They showed an analysis of kind of how their CNI borrowers would fare in various tariff scenarios in which industries would be much more affected and less likely to pass on those costs to consumers. So it definitely is kind of a very similar to what we're seeing just broadly economically with the hard data showing, you know, very stable economic backdrop and the soft data showing sentiment less so.
- [09:21]
Tim Seymour
Just one more thing to add. He really believes that a really tough time in the economy, in the markets ultimately in the medium to longer term is good for JP Morgan, that they will be the last ones.
- [09:32]
Guy Adami
And I think part of that also he opened the door to make acquisitions. He kind of confirmed that. So I would imagine if things did get bad, he would certainly go make acquisitions. So regulation being turned down definitely opens the door.
- [09:43]
Melissa Lee
Leslie, thank you. Thank you, Leslie. Pick.
- [09:45]
Leslie Picker
I mean, it's tremendous. Great rushing it on the bank. The bank route or the bank. What do they call when you have a beat?
- [09:53]
Melissa Lee
A beat.
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Karen Feinerman
A beat.
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Leslie Picker
The bank beat.
- [09:55]
Melissa Lee
Yes.
- [09:56]
Karen Feinerman
Thank you.
- [09:56]
Leslie Picker
Back to you, Mel.
- [09:57]
Melissa Lee
That's it. I was looking for a trade.
- [09:59]
Leslie Picker
Citibank is a trade. You know, Leslie was on the show last week, I think was last week reported Buffett liquidated his position in Citi. We talked about it. Tim actually said probably did it at a great level because the stock traded up almost to 90 bucks or so traded back down. But here I look at Citi with a $93 tangible book. I mean it's not ridiculous to think we can't get back to those levels.
- [10:19]
Melissa Lee
Even more cautious on JP Morgan.
- [10:21]
Tim Seymour
Yes. Well, one of their. If one it's expensive, it deserves to be expensive for sure. But also the question mark about Jamie's tenure, that doesn't weigh on any other bank like it does on J.P. morgan, I guess.
- [10:34]
Danny Moses
You know, I look at banks here and I think if credit spreads are too tight and if we haven't really priced in any tariffs yet and if we, I mean, look, I'm a, I'm a believer in the money center banks. I am Long City. I was selling upside. I was essentially selling outside calls because I really thought, you know, I'll, I'll be a happy seller at 85 bucks again out three months, which is the highest before the world changed dramatically. And I think the world has changed dramatically, at least on some level. Even though what we haven't really heard from anybody yet is this, this pullback in eps which will lead to the pullback in the overall multiple. So I like Citibank guys. Right. I mean I think you're safe there. But as it got up near one times book for Citibank, that's a place I think, you know, after this run, I don't know, you have to be buying back to hands.
- [11:14]
Guy Adami
You know, investors are paying a premium for the best companies within the sectors and that is the best company. It's always going to be expensive. And I would say that private equity has taken the thunder away a little bit of the banks in terms of growth. So when things do slow down, I believe that's where the problems are going to lie for the most part. Yes, the banks will have issues, but not to the degree that credit could deteriorate within private equity.
- [11:33]
Melissa Lee
In terms of Jamie Dimon's forecast, to use your metaphor for the markets, basically saying the markets are too complacent, they are too expensive. Right now credit spreads have not widened to the point, you know, to the extent they probably should be at to reflect the risk in the economy.
- [11:50]
Danny Moses
Those, those.
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Melissa Lee
Are we going, are we going to go the way of Jamie Dimon's forecast, the markets that is.
- [11:55]
Danny Moses
Look, I don't know. I mean we've all, you know, Danny outlined that Jamie tends to be conservative. But I mean we. Wait for it.
- [12:01]
Tim Seymour
Guy.
- [12:02]
Danny Moses
We talked about cumulonimbus clouds today. I mean we really did. I mean and today was a serious stratus day and the market's been in serious stratus. And if you don't know those terms mean, look them up.
- [12:11]
Melissa Lee
Take risk science.
- [12:12]
Danny Moses
Exactly, exactly.
- [12:15]
Melissa Lee
All right. Well meanwhile Wall street appearing to shrug off Moody's downgrade of us that the major indices closing around session highs, the Dow of 137 points, the S&P 500 now in a six day winning streak. Even the NASDAQ down nearly a percent and a half as it lows at its, at its lows ending in the green. Meanwhile, rates were largely higher with the 30 year treasury yield topping 5% hitting its highest level since January and mortgage rates topping 7% at their highs. Get insight on the big moves from Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Senior Managing director. Julian, great to see you.
- [12:45]
Julian Emanuel
Great to be here.
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Melissa Lee
We were just talking about Jamie Dimon's forecast for the markets. Are you on the same page here? You think there's more upside?
- [12:50]
Julian Emanuel
No, we, we are on the same page. Look, you've come and I will say this is equal opportunity hatred. There were a lot of people that that week in April of the low were saying why are you backing up the truck here? A lot of the same people are saying why aren't you a little bit more optimistic right now? Our view is the truth lies somewhere in the middle and with the knowledge that valuation alone doesn't end a bull run. And ultimately we don't think it'll end this bull run. We just think it's a time to pause, catch your breath and realize that you've swung so far the other way to this optimism where recession is all but priced out. And it's not our base case, of course, but also that the tariff news is probably going to get maybe incrementally more difficult before it gets better.
- [13:42]
Leslie Picker
Let's talk about the bond market then because at one point today I think 10 year yields were 455 or just short of it. Something happened midday where yields backed up. But I think yields are still a problem. What are you thinking here?
- [13:53]
Julian Emanuel
No question. But if you look at today, the trading pattern of the day didn't surprise us at all because frankly, you know, coming into the morning there was this end of America Exceptionalism Act 2. We still think that the stocks that are connected to the AI theme are long term outperformers. That outperformance resumed at the lows on April 7th. It's got longer to go. But the fact is is that yields came in simply because we realized that getting the bill through the committee last night reduces the risk of default. Hello, that's, that's good for fixed income even if the longer term view is that deficits are going to expand.
- [14:33]
Guy Adami
Julian Moody's was later to this downgrade than they were to subprime. I mean it was pretty obvious all the things that they said didn't shock anybody. Curious, you think who the incremental buyers were today of 10 year. We know Scott Besson is obsessed obviously with 10 year yields. We know that there's been some buying within Washington. I'm just curious to get your thoughts on the patterns you've seen.
- [14:50]
Julian Emanuel
So I will tell you again when you think about how quickly and the week of the low in April, 81% of Evercore's clients thought we were either started a recession or one was going to begin in the second half of 2025. And you've gone the completely other way around. A lot of these are asset allocation trades. We've had a bunch of these conversations over the last week or so and we know that however this is going to sort itself out. A, it does seem that the big beautiful bill is going to ultimately make its way through and B, look, Treasury Secretary Besant has shown that he's very sensitive to the 10 year yield and they're going to continue to fight to keep it down.
- [15:39]
Danny Moses
So what is going to stop the 10 year yield from Reacting to fundamentals. I mean there's nothing about the big beautiful bill and what's going on with I think tariff policy which is I think hurting, you know, the income side of the revenue side of the income statement. There's nothing in here that supports the fundamentals around the credit profile of the United States of America on top of issuance that all we seem to do is talk about the refunding calendar in a way we never did before. So I don't think it's lights out for USA Inc. But I do think it's. If he is obsessed, I think that's, I think that's fair. I think that's important. By the way, that was part of kind of the shock that I think was going around Wall street community. Right. I mean it's just kind of like this, this guy is one of us and he doesn't seem to be paying attention to the important stuff here. At some point how you have to change the policy or you really have to cut spending.
- [16:30]
Julian Emanuel
No, you do. And look, if you go back to the beginning of this bull market In October of 2022, we broke it down. The vast majority above 90% of the gains are attributable to when the 10 year yield was below 4 1/2 percent. Tiny gains between 4 1/2 and 4 and 3/4. Above 4 and 3/4, forget it. The market is actually returns negative. So to that point, look, the fundamentals are going to be very, very difficult. And frankly Germany going to deficit spending to finance, you know, the ongoing rearmament is secularly going to put upward pressure on yields. And it's just that when we think about the economy, you aren't likely to get the sort of gang busters growth that will really send you through 5% on the 10 year yield.
- [17:26]
Melissa Lee
So you think we are pretty toppy right now. I mean we're, we're going to, we're just about where we should be. If you think that four and a half is sort of the ceiling for the equity market, I mean where do you think yields are going to be? Because it sounds like you think they should be biased higher. And in that case the markets are where they are. They're not going anywhere soon.
- [17:47]
Julian Emanuel
Right. And they should be biased higher. But remember, and part of a lot of people's frustration, certainly the bears over the last number of weeks is the fact that the data hasn't rolled over yet. There's still an expectation that at some point you're going to see a soft patch of economic data showing up. And to US that's really the limiting factor for upward pressure on yields and the limiting factor for upward pressure in the equity markets.
- [18:16]
Melissa Lee
All right, Julian, thank you. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Tim talked about.
- [18:21]
Leslie Picker
About three weeks ago, I said the pain trade is higher. Julian said similar and the pain trade has been higher. Quite without question. If you had asked me on Friday afternoon what was going to happen today, 80 to 100 handles to the downside in the S and P made a lot of sense. It did not happen. The late rally in the bond market is encouraging, but the question is, what's the right multiple in a slowing environment for the s and P 500, if you want to assume $250, 19, which is still historically high, is a 4750s and P, I think that's sort of reasonable.
- [18:49]
Melissa Lee
So the lack of market reaction, is that a tell on how much positivity is built into the market or that Moody's is so late to the game that it's inconsequential?
- [19:00]
Guy Adami
I think it's a little bit of both. I think we got the first scare. So think about what happened in April. Dollar weakened, rates went up, equities dropped. We saw a microcosm of it this morning for about an hour was going to happen. So a little ptsd again, what's going to happen here? But I agree with Guy and Julian. I think we're going to see the effects of this. We have to be able to see it. So I think S and P earnings are too high for 3Q and 4Q and 2Q. Whether that means anything, people look past it, I don't know.
- [19:25]
Danny Moses
Well, S and P earnings are nowhere near a recession. Right. They're nowhere near. If we really do get a slowdown and, you know, again, I'll leave that out there. But, but what we were digesting around the period Danny's referring to is also just some sense of, you know, and Julian said the data hasn't rolled over. But as a guy that's been in emerging markets a lot of my career in emerging markets, when the sovereigns, when their data rolls over, you sell their bonds and you sell them hard. Now, we're not an emerging market, but. But that was kind of where we were going, we were starting in April to look into the abyss and say, well, what happens when this policy is very much putting headwinds into growth? So I just think it's not going to happen quickly. I think the upward trend to yields is, is probably more in Guy's line. But I do think when data slows down quickly. Right now based upon the market we have today, anything can happen. But those yields are going to go down. They're going to respond as they should. There'll be a, there'll be a rally in the treasury market with all the things equal to where they are now at first before they start to back up.
- [20:21]
Tim Seymour
I thought the markets reaction today, the, the action in general was shockingly positive to me. I mean, you know, I don't think the, the market will say what the rates are for for the U.S. bonds. But that would have been a perfect excuse to sell off of what has been an enormous rally. Even the names that have rallied the most, like the Nvidia's of the world where you had the big anticipation of Jensen Huang's speech and all of that ended up positive today. That's kind of amazing.
- [20:47]
Guy Adami
It's really interesting that treasury yields would rally or bonds or rally yields would fall if it was a flight to safety. So for a period of time this morning, rates went up in the equity markets. That's all they're watching. And then there's a flight to safety maybe. And then they go down and become self fulfilling, that you can go back into equities because but if yields go down for the wrong reasons, slowdown in growth, then the market's way too expensive.
- [21:07]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, pressing pause on Netflix. Analysts are downgrading the name after its big run up. And whether our traders agree with that call, that is next. Plus shares of UNH continuing their comeback after last week's plunge. But can the insurance giant keep its momentum coming after hitting more than five year lows? We'll debate that ahead. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into this is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC. On WhatsApp, your personal messages stay private between you and whoever you send them to. So things like the passport numbers for your honeymoon stay between you and your fiance. And that video call for your grand's 80th stays in the family. Even your streaming password stays between you and your college roommates who still ask for it every week in your group chat. Because on WhatsApp, your personal messages are yours. No one else can see or hear them, not even us. WhatsApp message privately, are you still quoting 30 year old movies?
- [22:13]
Julian Emanuel
Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days?
- [22:16]
Melissa Lee
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- [22:33]
Danny Moses
Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the.
- [22:36]
Melissa Lee
February 2024 Nelson Report. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with.
- [22:41]
Karen Feinerman
A message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying, no judgments.
- [22:52]
Guy Adami
But that's weird.
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Karen Feinerman
Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment.
- [23:01]
Melissa Lee
Of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate.
- [23:04]
Karen Feinerman
First 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com.
- [23:12]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. JP Morgan pressing pause on Netflix, the firm downgrading the streaming giant to neutral from overweight while still positive on the stock long term. Analysts saying, quote, the risk reward near term is becoming more balanced after its recent run. The firm did though raise its price target by $70 to do $1200 and $20. Netflix shares have nearly doubled in the past year. So just basically just because, because it's run so far so fast, very reasonable.
- [23:36]
Leslie Picker
I mean they're overweight, going to neutral, still have a 1220 dollar, what is it, 1220 price target. Good for them. I mean this is what the analyst community should be doing this. I admire the call and I understand it. No valuation, the market, all those different things. But with all that said, I don't think you really run all that far away from Netflix. I mean, every sell off for the last couple of years has been tremendous opportunity. They continue to dominate the space.
- [23:59]
Melissa Lee
I mean, not that much impact to the stock's action today.
- [24:02]
Danny Moses
No. And it was proven safe in a terrible volatile market. And I think it's been proven safe even before that. And it's just what are we going to pay? What's the multiple we're going to put on this? There are drivers, there's certainly the add to your support. But there are the events dynamics, there's the international expansion. I mean there's a lot of things that can give you a sense. The economies of scale are really helping here. And I think the margin stays high.
- [24:25]
Melissa Lee
One point that's interesting though is that Netflix is seen as sort of a, you know, a secure place, safety from tariffs. Basically the tariff, you know, not impacted by tariffs at all. And so to the extent that tariff pressure comes off, the name comes off the markets. Should Netflix give back some of that?
- [24:42]
Tim Seymour
That's a good point. But I also think people think of it as a recession is the last thing you're going to get rid of. Right. Or you may do the ad supported tier. So I'm long Netflix. I read the report. I think they make very good points. It's hard to really, I can't really say there's a value investment here however. So I sold some July 1200s. Every time I have done this trade you'd think I would learn something. I haven't because I saw there's $70. Right. It seems like, well that's a lot of premium. We'll see. I don't know. That's been, I've been wrong several times selling those now to buying back higher.
- [25:16]
Guy Adami
Part of the thesis to your point on the downgrade was that people will move out of less defensive stocks and become much more aggressive. This is actually a growth company and they've had two or three different times in the last few years where people have doubted, oh, you're going to cut off passwords. Well, that's going to hurt your subs. Nope, didn't happen. Are you going to go spend a lot on live sports? Yeah, it was accretive or will turn out to be accretive or all these transformational things that they've done. You're going to stop giving quarterly subscriber growth. We're going to punish you for the lack of optics. Well, guess what, they blew away those numbers again. So to me, yes, it's expensive. But as I said on JP Morgan, people are going to pay a premium in various sectors down into $500 billion company. You can't not be there as a fund manager if you think there's growth in the company.
- [25:52]
Melissa Lee
All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. From rout to rebound. Shares of UnitedHealth jumping after last week's tumble. But can the stock fully recover after its devastating drop?
- [26:04]
Danny Moses
That trade next.
- [26:06]
Melissa Lee
Plus Walmart passing the plate. Why President Trump is sounding off on the retail giant to eat the tariffs his administration set forth.
- [26:14]
Danny Moses
The impact on the whole retail space ahead. You're watching Fast Money live from the.
- [26:20]
Melissa Lee
NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
- [26:22]
Danny Moses
We're back right after this.
- [26:28]
Melissa Lee
For 140 years, MultiCare has been in.
- [26:31]
Karen Feinerman
Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future.
- [26:41]
Melissa Lee
Learn more@mycare.org Are you still quoting 30 year old movies?
- [26:47]
Julian Emanuel
Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days?
- [26:50]
Melissa Lee
Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted. If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99 of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover.
- [27:06]
Danny Moses
Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the.
- [27:09]
Melissa Lee
February 2024 Nelson report. Welcome back to Fast Money. UnitedHealth shares rising today up more than 8% for their best day since November 2020. The gains come after shares hit a more than five year low last week. The stock plunged after the company suspended guidance and set its CEO stepping down. Unh. Also reportedly under investigation for Medicare fraud. Today the news is its new CEO Stephen Hemsley bought $25 million worth of stock in the open market. This is disclosed in SEC filing and that's what perked the shares up today. It was a, it was a big.
- [27:43]
Tim Seymour
Purchase is a big purchase for somebody.
- [27:45]
Melissa Lee
Who probably owns already a lot already.
- [27:48]
Tim Seymour
Right. I mean that, that is a statement. Right. And then there was some other buying as well. That having been said, I don't own it. The idea of investigation is sort of scares me a little bit. But oh my God, this, I mean, you know, people are, well, never get back to where it was. It doesn't need to get back to.
- [28:05]
Melissa Lee
Where it was from here, higher from the low.
- [28:07]
Tim Seymour
Yes. Just for wherever you bought it. That's only thing that's relevant. I haven't pulled the trigger yet.
- [28:11]
Melissa Lee
The president and CFO bought about $5 million worth of shares and three directors also bought shares. So that's what Karen was talking about.
- [28:18]
Danny Moses
Yeah. The question is are you a trader or an investor here? I'm a bit of both. I bought some shares on Thursday afternoon. I think, you know, once the sense was that this, whatever the investigation is, is something that's probably similar to what some of the peers have gone through. There's some sense to me that that was really the next, I mean I think that was the next leg down in the stock. It doesn't bother me that margins are going to have to be adjusted around Medicare Advantage, that they've essentially even said they're starting to adjust that and I get back to valuation. I mean if you really find yourself in the middle of a 25 guide for 26, you're at 12 times here.
- [28:54]
Leslie Picker
I thought we could get down to the sort of September lows from 2019 I think was like 220. I guess we got close. We get to about 250 or so. But I mean this is a circle the wagons moment. Karen, Tim just talked about it. When there are buys of this magnitude, you hearken back to Jamie Dimon seven years ago when I think JP Morgan was trading $55. And when people step into that magnitude, it sends a message. Now we'll see how that message is six months or three to six months from now. But right now it's encouraging And Tim just said it. You a trader investor? As a trader, this might have a little more room.
- [29:25]
Guy Adami
The upside, I'm not a buyer or a seller. I think there's other health care names you can own. But I want to just point out that this is why the Dow Jones is a bad indices to watch because it's price weighted and why people should just pay attention to the S and P. Because we've had massive swings in the Dow which could be because misleading to the market.
- [29:40]
Danny Moses
Yeah. And Guy brought that up the impact it had on some some ETFs. Smart point guy.
- [29:44]
Leslie Picker
Thank you, Tim. See we all get along here so.
- [29:46]
Melissa Lee
Nicely on camera and off camera by the way. Coming up, Wal Mart on watch. President Trump telling the retail giant to eat the tariffs instead of raising prices. How much could his warning weigh in the rest of the shopping space? The retail deep dive when Fast Money returns back into missed a moment of.
- [30:04]
Danny Moses
Fast Catch us anytime on the go.
- [30:06]
Melissa Lee
Follow the Fast Money podcast.
- [30:08]
Danny Moses
We're back right after this.
- [30:18]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast money. Stocks managing to eke out small gains as Investors digested Moody's US credit downgrade. The Dow climbing 137 points. The S and P and Nasdaq both with incremental gains. The s and P500 now up six days in a row. Shares of Reddit lower after a downgrade to equal weight at Wells Fargo. Analysts slashing the price target from 168 to 115 and saying the site's user issues could persist as Google more aggressively implements its AI search features. And oil and gas company neighbors industries downgraded to underweight at Barclays today. Analysts also taking the price target on the oil services Name down from 53 to 28. Energy is in the carved acronym of Carrion. I forgot which you know which one.
- [30:58]
Tim Seymour
But it is in there. Yes. So I pointed this out not because it's not flattering, but it is. I mean this is a really difficult one. The whole space just trading terribly and I don't know if I think was this morning Journal Journal article on the shale plays being sort of, you know. Right. And so this is a shale play and the whole services space trades this is back to 2020 level.
- [31:21]
Leslie Picker
Talk about the mighty have fallen in terms of neighbors. I mean, go back and look where the stock was like 0809. Now I think it's below half a billion dollars in terms of market cap and people think it has more room to the downside. So it's pretty remarkable. I'm a still believer in energy. I get it. But it does not trade well.
- [31:37]
Melissa Lee
All right. Well, President Trump slamming Walmart over the weekend for blaming tariffs for its decision to raise prices, suggesting that the retail giant should, quote, eat the higher costs without passing them on to consumers. All this as we get ready for more key retail reports this week. Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJX and more on deck. So should investors brace for a bigger retail showdown over tariffs? Let's ask Jan Rogers Niffin, CEO of J. Rogers Niffin Worldwide. Jan, always good to see you.
- [32:03]
Jan Rogers Niffin
Always good to see you.
- [32:06]
Melissa Lee
Well, Walmart may be able to eat more of the tariffs than they already have, but can others? Will we feel the pressure of Washington on when it comes to, you know, these conference calls and the commentary around raising prices?
- [32:20]
Jan Rogers Niffin
Well, yeah, we will feel the pressure. Nobody actually wants to be on the wrong side of the administration if they don't have to be. But we are going to see people raise prices as tariffs come through. The good news is the tariff numbers have been coming down, right? If we're at 30% on China and 10% in the rest of the world, that's not great. But it's not like 145 in China, is it? So if you look at the numbers, you would say, boy, let's say it averages 15%. Maybe you have to pass through 6% price increase to be 100% even if there are no offsets. But you know, how much pressure can you put on the vendor depending on where they are? You can put some on. You can put pressure on the supply chain too now because it's getting cheaper to bring product in, not more expensive like it was during COVID And then you can also put pressure on the inside of your own business as they will all do. And after that you see what's left and then you just raise your price across your goods enough to cover the difference and you wait and see how the consumer reacts. If the consumer says fine and you don't have a big reduction in what you can sell and therefore it all works, you're good. If they say, I'm sorry, I'm not paying this, you do what you always do. You mark it down that much and your gross margin goes down. But you know, retailers play this game all the time. We've always had tariffs and quotas and things we dealt with. You have to go through the process, but it won't just be straightforward. Nobody's going to say, okay, it's 10% tariff, I'm passing through 4% and I'm done. That's not going to happen. They're going to go through the whole process and pass through just as little as they can to maintain their gross margin dollars, which means everybody's gross margin percentage probably is going to go down a little bit even if that all works. And if it doesn't work, you know it'll go down more.
- [34:16]
Tim Seymour
Janet's Karen, thanks for being on. I'm a Wal Mart holder. I know it's expensive, but I think in the intermediate to longer term could them having to hold prices down force competition to be in a much weaker spot as either they have to let prices rise because they can't afford to hold them down or try to compete, which they probably won't be able to do. I see this as a way for them to gain share over time. How do you think this plays out?
- [34:43]
Jan Rogers Niffin
Absolutely. If you're Walmart, if you're Costco, if you're Home Depot, if you're Dick's Sporting Goods, if you're TJ Maxx and you're best in class in your space, you gain market share. You do the best job of controlling the pass through of pricing. Other people can't. They either suffer or they raise prices and lose market share to you. That's going to happen. It's a good time to be a big, well capitalized, strong vendor clout kind of retailer. And I just named the best five of those you own. The very best one, the best retailer in the country, Wal Mart.
- [35:22]
Danny Moses
So Jan, does that mean Wal Mart's cementing this, this wealthy cohort that it's taken on and like it's, it's, it's cool to shop at Wal Mart no matter who you are. I'm just trying to understand if that means, I mean like the multiple reflects a lot of things and it's, it's again like some other companies out there. It's extraordinary. But does Wal Mart, is it underappreciated that it's going to continue to do business with this group of people for the foreseeable?
- [35:47]
Jan Rogers Niffin
Yes, because it is, it solidified that during COVID that's not something new. It'll solidify it even more as pricing becomes more important. But They've also changed their image right, by selling online and selling where you can just pick it up at the store or have it put in your car when you get there. They captured that hundred thousand dollar year plus kind of consumer. They're going to get more of that because they're just getting better at what they do. And then they've also added in all these ancillary services that are high gross margin businesses and they're not big but they're growing so they've got room. But I mean think about it. They just turned in a 4 1/2% comp in the US well target report when they report this week, maybe negative one. These guys are winning the game out there in competitive land and they're winning it with that higher end consumer and consumer is not going away. Now they like service they're getting from Walmart because they don't really expect much in the way of service. What they expect is convenience and price and that's what they've been getting. They've also been getting better product than they've gotten in the past.
- [36:57]
Melissa Lee
Jan, nice to speak with you. Thank you.
- [37:00]
Jan Rogers Niffin
Thank you.
- [37:01]
Melissa Lee
Jan Niffin. All right guy, what's your trade here?
- [37:04]
Leslie Picker
Are you familiar with the way Carter Braxton worth, he does amazing work. He talks about bearish to bullish reversal time to time. And we have been negative in this sector, specifically the dollar stores for quite some time. But look at Dollar General over the last six months or so. Look at where it just traded down to a few months ago, traded back down to levels we saw probably six or seven years ago. 72. We might be on the precipice of exactly that. And what's going on with Wal Mart, some of these other stores, Dollar General, the dollar stores might actually start to win for the first time in a while.
- [37:36]
Guy Adami
I've been long Wal Mart for years on what Jan was talking about. All the other ancillary businesses I think Karen was alluding to as well of why she owns that. And it's a secular growth play for Trump to tell Wal Mart what they should be doing. Wal Mart basically has to deal with their shareholders, not US Government. But that's the equivalent to telling the airlines when oil prices are high to lower fares, is telling the banks when rates are high to lower their mortgages. There's shareholders these CEOs and executives have to cater to.
- [38:01]
Danny Moses
Not that makes too much sense. Danny.
- [38:02]
Guy Adami
Sorry.
- [38:03]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [38:03]
Guy Adami
Sorry. Yeah.
- [38:07]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Nvidia's latest plans. How the semi giant is capitalizing on chip to chip communications and what it will mean for competitors. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Nvidia shares are raising early losses to close the day slightly in the green. The Dow had been. The stock, excuse me, had been down more than 2%. CEO Jensen and Huang announced a slate of new products he hopes will keep the company at the front of the race. Our Christina Parts Neville has got the details from last night's Computex conference. Christina. Thanks Melissa. Well, there was two major announcements. Nvidia's next generation Blackwell Ultra architecture which is now on track to ship in Q3 and they're opening their data center platform to chip rivals for the first time ever, which is really just a shift. Acknowledging the threat from custom as well as in house chips and from tech giants like AWS and Microsoft. The NVLink Fusion allows customers to integrate their own chips like CPUs into Nvidia's ecosystem, which is really moving away from the closed system approach. Marvell, Mediatek, Qualcomm were some of the partners listed, but competitors like Broadcom, amd, Intel notably missing from the conversation. Nvidia also announcing they will build a supercomputer in Taiwan and open a second office over there. One of the things that I was expecting was the anticipated AI PC chip to rival intel and AMD CPUs, but we didn't hear about that. One other bit of news though, Melissa, today came from Jensen Huang's interview with Strattecary where he said that additional ban on Nvidia H20 chips geared for China was, quote, deeply painful and that they walked away from $15 billion of sales, which Jensen said would have been about $3 billion worth of taxes for the US market. This actually marks the first time that Jensen Huang has actually put a sum on the lost revenues. Aside from that 5.5 billion write off that came out maybe about a month ago, overall shares were relatively flat today. Keep in mind Nvidia shares surged about 16% just last week as momentum traders really piled in on the announcement of those Middle east deals. Melissa. Alright Christina, thank you. Christina Parts Navalis, you made the point. Every excuse to sell, to lighten up, especially on Nvidia.
- [40:40]
Tim Seymour
Yes, taken, not taken. Also if you look at core weave today, which I don't own core weave, but that, that is just insane. I mean, so the story is very much alive. It was dead two months ago, I guess, but I mean and then the Saudi Arabia, I mean the Middle east trip, that was huge. But just sentiment has changed completely.
- [40:58]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, 24 million shares just about is what Nvidia owns of core we 55%.
- [41:04]
Leslie Picker
Rally since the April lows in Nvidia which is pretty remarkable. And now it's setting up in 28th which is what next Thursday or next whatever the hell it is. But they report next week. It's a pretty significant earnings release I think because last quarter we heard about margins contracting. They promised they would reaccelerate in the back half of the year. We'll hear what they say now but I think the bar has been raised considerably over the last couple of weeks.
- [41:26]
Melissa Lee
Raymond James makes the point that consensus is not reflecting the 20 chip export restrictions restrictions yet which could be a problem obviously when they report for sure.
- [41:35]
Danny Moses
And I think guy's right to be reminding people about this earnings release. I mean at times we've spent a month leading up to this earnings release being concerned about it and I think on some level it feels as if you've de risked the entire space. Remarkable rally, remarkable resilience. I do think that when they had to make that announcement in the after hours we were on the show and they talked about a 6 billion hit it the sentiment from the Middle East. It gave a lot of folks confidence to move forward and not really care about those headlines.
- [42:03]
Guy Adami
Macro is still very strong and I it is and so they're going to be the leader. That's how you play it. I don't own it. I've never been short it. But not owning it.
- [42:11]
Melissa Lee
But you want to be the bet. You want to own the best in class.
- [42:13]
Guy Adami
I've said it. I actually this is a big one.
- [42:15]
Danny Moses
Does feel like a Danny Short though.
- [42:16]
Guy Adami
I mean but not yet gross margins come in a little bit. But listen they're. They're the leader in it and it's a of matter macro growth space Carter probably. I don't think it's a pair of twos here. That could be a bearish to bullish at this point there guys.
- [42:28]
Leslie Picker
You know David Einhorn was on one of the shows last week and he talked about a pair of twos not being as bleep a hand as a lot of people say. He actually used that expression.
- [42:38]
Melissa Lee
Well he's a poker. He's a poker player. He is a poker player. So it's very. Pair of twos isn't as.
- [42:43]
Leslie Picker
Maybe we should come up with something else as opposed to a pair of.
- [42:45]
Melissa Lee
You do.
- [42:46]
Leslie Picker
He's watching right now. David, just come on the show.
- [42:49]
Melissa Lee
Coming off a major investment in if a deal gets done how much Nippon Steel is planning to spend if it's steel for US Steel gets the go ahead. The details next. More fast money into welcome back to bass money. U.S. steel shares getting a boost today on a Reuters report that Japan's Nippon Steel will invest $14 billion in the steelmaker's operations if the Trump administration greenlights its embattled acquisition. The investment would reportedly include up to $4 billion to build a new steel plant. The deal is up for a fresh national security review on Wednesday, after which President Trump would have 15 days to decide whether to allow it to go through more production, more jobs here in the United States. Tim, do you think this ultimately goes through?
- [43:38]
Danny Moses
I think there's plenty of olive branch here to come in off the ledge if and I that's not how this administration would refer to any of this. But I do think, look, we said this all along. This deal was a smart deal and a good deal for U.S. steel for its shareholders and its workers. And again, the investments into U.S. steel that U.S. steel is unable to do themselves and Cliffs is not either. Again, big balance sheet issue. Look, I think US Steel is worth owning either way.
- [44:06]
Tim Seymour
I don't own it for the arbitrage, but it does. I mean they could have had this done closed. I mean not closed. End of discussion. No more discussion. There is no deal.
- [44:16]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [44:16]
Tim Seymour
And yet we are not there at all. So there is certainly more than a little chance.
- [44:20]
Guy Adami
Maybe you take it as a win win country Japan doing something, one of the largest companies doing something here. You can kind of bottle up in that degree.
- [44:27]
Leslie Picker
So yeah, third point, Karen knows everybody knows them well. They took a stake in it last quarter that was just announced. And I've said this before and I believe it, if this was called Anacott Steel or anything but agree US deal, this deal would have happened. I think the US Steel part really puts it hamstrings the whole thing. But they Nippon they have actually a plan and last I looked, Japan was actually an ally. I think the deal should go through. I think cooler heads should prevail.
- [44:53]
Melissa Lee
We've also by the way, taken money from Japanese Softbank. We've taken Softbank plenty.
- [44:58]
Danny Moses
No problem.
- [44:59]
Melissa Lee
But Nippon Steel, we cannot take a dime from them. Would make no sense.
- [45:03]
Danny Moses
And Guy, if it was Anacond Steel, you would be Blue Horseshoe.
- [45:08]
Tim Seymour
Who's Bud?
- [45:09]
Leslie Picker
Well, that's Tim.
- [45:10]
Danny Moses
We have to play that well. We have to get the Wall street trailer out, some of our best friends.
- [45:15]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades, final trade time.
- [45:31]
Danny Moses
Tim Seymour, you're covered a lot of ground tonight. Great to have Danny Novo. I think the leadership change is just what we needed. We received that one.
- [45:39]
Tim Seymour
Karen yes, so we talked to Dan if and another in that pantheon I guess would be tjx.
- [45:45]
Melissa Lee
I am long earnings Thursday Danny Moses of Moses Ventures.
- [45:49]
Guy Adami
Everyone hates the sector. I like energy. ExxonMobil own the best here.
- [45:53]
Melissa Lee
Great to have you Danny Thanks.
- [45:57]
Leslie Picker
A very happy 80th birthday to fast Money fan Pete Townsend.
- [46:01]
Danny Moses
Oh yeah, huge fan. Ball wizard.
- [46:05]
Leslie Picker
The greatest. I love the guitar. My favorite Dollar General.
- [46:09]
Melissa Lee
Mel all right, thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities.
- [47:10]
Karen Feinerman
Healthier that comes from making courageous decisions.
- [47:14]
Melissa Lee
Partnering with local communities to grow programs.
- [47:17]
Karen Feinerman
And services, and expanding healthcare access to.
- [47:21]
Melissa Lee
Those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org.