CNBC’s "Fast Money"

Episode: JPMorgan Warning Sends Shares Sinking, and a Pairs Trade in the Retail Space

Date: December 9, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Melissa Lee with Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Chris Verone, dives into the fallout from JPMorgan’s surprise expense warning and its ripple effect across the banking sector. The panel also covers the Fed’s much-anticipated interest rate decision, the ongoing tech arms race (especially AI’s role in both banking and retail), and provides actionable insight into major moves in retail, energy, and precious metals. In depth, the team analyzes Wal Mart's rise as a tech-driven retailer, fresh guidance from GE Vernova, the intricacies of Nvidia’s China chip sales, and the mood of retail investors as the year ends.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. JPMorgan Expense Warning and Banking Sector Impact

• JPMorgan’s Consumer Banking Chief announced expenses will rise to $105B in 2026—over 10% higher than this year and $4B above analyst expectations, sending JPM shares down midday ([02:15]).
• Breakdown of Expenses:
  • Growth Drivers: Majority allocated to incentive compensation (attracting talent amidst a “very competitive environment”).
  • Strategic Investments: Smaller amounts for technology, branch upgrades, and AI.
  • Inflation/Real Estate: Out of company’s control ([03:59]).
• Industry Ripple: Stocks like BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi dropped in sympathy.
  • Analyst Mike Mayo: If the biggest bank is hiking expenses, others may have to follow ([02:15]).
  • Most executives remain positive on consumer stability; stress levels among lower-income cohorts not elevated ([03:40]).
• Panel Perspective:
  • Tim Seymour: “Would you rather hear JPMorgan say, ‘We don't know what to do with our money, we're going to buy back shares’? I don’t think so ... Everything I heard is the reason why you want to own banks.” ([06:37])
  • Dan Nathan: JPMorgan’s high valuation makes the expense increase more impactful; Jamie Dimon’s reluctance to buy back stock at these levels also noted ([07:42]).
  • Chris Verone: JPMorgan’s drop is more “rotational than it does outright distributive” for the sector; banks globally remain strong ([08:27]).

2. Fed Rate Cut Decision – Expectations and Ramifications

• High Anticipation: Nearly 90% market odds for a quarter-point cut in the Fed's final meeting of 2025 ([10:11]).
• Michael Kintopoulos (Richard Bernstein Advisors):
  • Expects a “hawkish” cut—Fed cutting reluctantly due to market pressure, with a divided committee ([10:33]).
  • Warns much of the past six months’ rally is liquidity/expectations-driven, potentially unsustainable if real rate cuts aren't forthcoming ([11:44]).
  • AI/data center debt buildout compared to “fiber buildouts”—could lead to stranded value and risk for high-multiple tech/AI equities ([13:17]):
    "If you are truly a technology bull, if you're an AI bull, then why are you going to fund investments in these massive data centers for funding 40 years?" ([13:17])
• Panel Reactions:
  • Chris Verone: The “hawkish cut” narrative may be overdone; 10-year bond yields have stayed within a three-year range and the Fed's policy is less dramatic than headlines suggest ([15:58]).
  • Guy Adami: Markets are likely to challenge any new Fed chair, and deficit/global debt certainly loom, but it's not pressing for US equities yet ([18:15]).
  • Dan Nathan: If growth, labor, and inflation are solid—why cut at all? Reminds that last "hawkish cut" spooked the market ([18:42]).

3. The Tech Race: AI Investments and Retail Transformation

Wal Mart as a "Tech" Company

• Wal Mart’s Debut on Nasdaq & Tech Pivot ([19:14]):
  • Embraces AI, automation, and technology; forward PE now exceeds most MAG7 names.
  • Discussion on whether it should replace a MAG7 stock: “It’s got a premium valuation, it’s leaned to tech... they’ve really been very steady and strong in terms of capex” ([19:14]).
• Panel on Valuation and Market Role:
  • Dan Nathan: “Walmart’s world, and you should continue to own the stock regardless of valuation... a lot of reasons to continue to be bullish...” ([20:02])
  • Tim Seymour: “You’re paying a higher multiple for [Wal Mart] because they invested in technology.” ([21:23])
  • Chris Verone: Wal Mart chart looks “great”—recent breakout suggests more upside ([22:01]).

AI Spend in Banking & Broader Economy

• Consensus: Investors want AI investment only with clear ROI (not just spending for its own sake) ([05:35]).
• The retail sector is also adapting AI for more efficient operations, inventory, and customer loyalty programs.

4. Headline Company Moves

GE Vernova (GEV) Investor Day ([24:21])

• Raised 2025 targets: higher revenue, improved margin guidance (now 20% by 2028).
• Announced $10B buyback & dividend doubling.
• Growth led by gas power turbines & electrification—not just data center demand ([24:33]).
• Highest-performing AI-industrial stock: up over 90% this year.
• Valuation concerns: trading at 56x earnings, well above most industrial peers ([25:53]).
  • Guy Adami: “They have 75% EPS growth ... $10B buyback on $170B market cap is not insignificant. I think you stay long the name.” ([26:25])
  • Chris Verone: “Margin profile driving higher multiple ... electrification story is the exciting part.” ([27:00])

Nvidia and AI Chip Sales to China ([33:31])

• Trump administration allows Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China ([34:09]).
• Mixed reaction on Capitol Hill: Some see it as a national security issue; others not worried as H200 is not Nvidia’s best chip ([34:39]).
  • Senator Lindsey Graham: “If you can prove to me this will accelerate their military capability, I’ll oppose it.” ([34:48])
• On the ground in China: Actual demand is uncertain due to Chinese government hesitation ([35:20]).
• Panel View:
  • Seymour: "I think this is better news for other chip players than Nvidia..." ([35:43])
  • Nathan: Chinese firms are syncing up with Huawei, building domestic capability; US export controls are “opportunistic.” ([36:11], [38:26])
  • Verone: Noteworthy that Nvidia's slide hasn't infected the rest of the semis ("Micron new high today, Avgo new high... 90% of semis above 200-day MA") ([37:44]).

Precious Metals Surge – Silver Outshines Gold ([29:51])

• Silver hits its 10th record of the year, doubling in 2025; outpacing gold ([30:48]).
  • Adami: “They can’t keep a lid on silver... Mining stocks like Newmont, Pan American Silver are absolutely telling a story. They continue to go higher as well.” ([31:05])
  • Verone: "SLV new high pretty decisively... Maybe we’re rotating from precious to more industrial/base metals." ([31:31])

Energy: ExxonMobil and Miners ([32:31])

• ExxonMobil’s chart looks poised for breakout ([32:44]).
  • Nathan: “Making higher lows, wants to break out.” ([32:44])
  • Seymour: Miners set to outperform; would be "getting after copper plays.” ([33:04])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On JPMorgan’s expense spike:
  Tim Seymour (06:37):
  “Everything I heard is the reason why you want to own banks. Do you. Would you rather hear JP Morgan say, we don't know what to do with our money, we're going to buy back shares? I don’t think so.”

• On AI capex and tech valuations:
  Michael Kintopoulos (13:17):
  “If you are truly a technology bull, if you’re an AI bull, then why are you going to fund investments in these massive data centers for funding 40 years which is some of this debt that’s being issued? ... There’s a good chance you’re obsolete well within the time frame of the debt issuance.”

• On Wal Mart as a tech leader:
  Melissa Lee (19:14):
  “Should Walmart be the next member of [MAG7]? Yeah, maybe it should ... it’s got a premium valuation, it’s leaned into tech.”

• On silver’s rally:
  Guy Adami (31:05):
  “They can't keep a lid on silver here ... mining stocks like Newmont, Pan American Silver are absolutely telling a story.”

• Capitol Hill on Nvidia’s China sales:
  Senator Lindsey Graham, via Emily Wilkins (34:48):
  “If you can prove to me this will accelerate their military capability, I’ll oppose it.”

Timestamps for Key Sections

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |---------|-------|-----------| | JPMorgan warning, expense breakdown, sector impact | [02:15]–[09:10] | | Fed Decision Outlook & Market Implications | [10:11]–[18:42] | | Wal Mart as Tech, Chart Analysis | [19:14]–[22:11] | | GE Vernova Guidance & AI-Industrial Bulls | [24:21]–[27:48] | | Gold/Silver Rally, Miner Outperformance | [29:51]–[33:04] | | Nvidia, US-China AI Chip Sales | [33:31]–[38:56] | | Retail Pairs Trade (Wal Mart vs. Costco) | [39:17]–[42:08] | | Retail Investor Sentiment, Survey Recap | [42:55]–[46:10] |

Noteworthy Segments

JPMorgan Fallout & Investment Thesis ([02:15]–[09:10]):

• Unpacked why JP Morgan’s expense guidance shocked the market, but consensus from panel: strategic investment is preferable to inertia.

Fed: Hawkish Cut and Market Risks ([10:11]–[18:42]):

• Experts warn of “hawkish” messaging likely to curb euphoria, stress that much of the run is liquidity-driven but not supported by data.

TECH RETAIL: Wal Mart Ascendant ([19:14]–[22:11]):

• Is Wal Mart now a ‘tech stock’? Consensus: it’s a leader in retail tech adoption with more upside.

AI Spend Skepticism and Industrial Tech ([13:17], [24:21]):

• Skepticism about massive data center debt, but excitement for industrial companies with real AI-driven demand like GE Vernova.

Commodities: Silver and Miners in Focus ([31:05], [32:03]):

• Silver’s surge and mining stock plays outlined in detail, with stocks favored over the underlying metals.

US-China Chip Trade & Geopolitics ([34:09]–[38:56]):

• Nuanced takes on the implications of Nvidia’s China chip sales—impact seen as more significant for AMD and the broader trade narrative than Nvidia's own stock.

Retail Pairs Trade: Wal Mart vs Costco ([39:17]–[42:08]):

• Technical and fundamental case made for Wal Mart outperformance; Costco seen as likely to underperform in the near term.

Retail Investor (Sentiment Check) ([42:55]–[46:10]):

• Caleb Silver presents that retail investors remain optimistic but are wary of bubbles in AI and crypto, with a continued appetite for large cap stocks.

Final Trades (Actionable Takeaways)

• Tim Seymour: Buy JPMorgan on weakness—“best of breed” ([46:43]).
• Chris Verone: Buy KRE (Regional Banks ETF), likely to benefit with a steeper curve ([46:48]).
• Dan Nathan: Buy XLE (Energy ETF), says Exxon “looks ready to party” ([46:53]).
• Guy Adami: Long Harmony Gold Mining (HMY), bullish on miners ([46:58]).

Tone & Presentation

The panel balances skepticism with optimism, highlighting both longer-term trends (AI, retail transformation) and tactical market trades. Their banter remains energetic, with a healthy mix of technicals, macro insights, and actionable ideas—making the episode actionable and engaging for retail and institutional audiences alike.