
JPMorgan shares closed near their lows of the day after its consumer banking head said expenses would be 10% higher next year. The implications for the banking sector and the broader market. Plus Walmart shares are trading near a $1 trillion valuation. But one top technician says he’s still long the name. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Life in the NASDAQ markets at the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, A big bank warning, a JP Morgan executive making some comments that sent the shares sinking midday. What they said and what it means for the consumer and the rest of the banking space. And a retail pairs trade. Wal Mart and Costco have had vastly different years so far. But how do you play the names in 2026? We dig into the charts to find out. Plus, we're counting down to the last Fed to decision of the year. All the headlines from GE Vernova's latest investor day and Nvidia shares giving back all of yesterday's China bump. We've got the latest reaction from DC and the company's ambitions. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio. Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Chris Verone, partner and chief market strategist at Strategus a Baird company. We start off with today's big reversal in JP Morgan shares plunging into the red midday after the company's consumer banking chief told investors that 2026 expenses will rise to $105 billion. That's more than 10% higher than this year, more than what analysts were forecasting. Those comments at the Goldman Sachs financial services conference pulling down other bank names like bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi. Leslie Picker is here on set with more on this. It was a big decline for those comments.
C
Yeah, it was pretty surprising. The way Lake described it is that the firm needs to spend more to grow more. And while the expenses are are more than $4 billion higher than the street was expecting. She said that's largely due to higher activity levels, which drives more incentive compensation and marketing. The firm also plans to invest more in branches, bankers and advisors, in addition to. Yes, of course, AI. As analyst Mike Mayo pointed out in a report, the firm increased expenses more than expected also in 2022, which ultimately paid off. Mayo did note that this is the, quote, most competitive environment we've seen seen since the financial crisis for the industry. He implied that if the biggest of the big banks is increasing its spend, then the rest of the industry, including the regionals, may need to follow suit. And so that's why you saw reaction in the stocks of B of A, Wells Fargo and Citi, in sympathy with the JP Morgan move today. Overall, though, the commentary across the industry was pretty positive. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf saying that consumer spending remains strong. Other executives saying consumers remain choiceful in what they spend on. But the cohort of people in distress isn't elevated relative to normal times. And we'll hear more from several industry titans tomorrow, including area CEO Michael Araghetti, Blackstone President John Gray, and B of A CEO Brian Moynihan from day two of that Goldman Sachs Financial services conference here in New York City.
A
Mel, how should we think about that increase that is above what analysts had been expecting in higher than what it was this year? It sounded like a lot of the growth was going to be in compensation.
C
Yes.
A
And so how do we think about that as that sort of cost that will continue to rise versus actual strategic investments, like investments in AI?
C
Well, just to put that number into perspective here, so it's about a 9, $9 billion increase from what's expected this year total among the other big six, excluding Wells Fargo. Because Mike Mayo is the one who did this, this work, and he works at Wells Fargo. But let's just put Wells Fargo aside. Their expenses are about $8 billion.
Expected increase. So this one big Goliath, as he calls it, is more than the entire increase of the rest of, you know, four of his big competitors. And so that's a pretty big number. Anything over $100 billion you look at for an expense figure, and that's pretty sizable. But to your point, the way that Lake described it is the biggest bucket is going to be kind of these drivers for growth, spending more on compensation to attract bankers, to attract advisors, basically leaning into this very conducive environment. The second bucket, which she described as being much small, is going to be kind of the investments that we think about Refurbishing the branches, investing in technology, investing in AI. And then that last bucket is going to be an increase due to inflation and real estate costs. So that's something I would say is kind of out of their control. Perhaps it's more of the, the macro environment that we're talking about. Everything else is a strategic investment as well as something that they're benefiting from the growth in their business.
D
Yeah, Leslie, the spend is what caught me because you look at Citi, Citi actually recovered, closed, I think around a 52 week high today. But the AI spend and the competition in AI is something that obviously caught my attention. I think for JP Morgan, people looked at valuation, said this is a little problematic. Is that, am I reading this right in terms of AI?
C
Well, I think it was the overall headline number that I think people were concerned about. People want to see the banks investing in AI. Something that Dennis Coleman, the CFO of Goldman Sachs talked about was this GS1 GS 3.0 initiative where they're really leaning in to see how I can drive efficiencies across the franchise and make their touch points with clients even stronger. They want to see these banks invest in AI. They want to see that money spent that way, but they want to see ROI from it. They don't want to just see the money kind of be burnt within the, within the towers. They want to make sure that they're getting the efficiencies from it, that they're getting the revenue growth from it. And they want to know what it means for headcount, what it means for their ability to drive revenue higher and be more efficient with the talent that, that they do still have.
A
Leslie, great to see you. Thank you so much. Leslie Picker. So that scrutiny in terms of ROI on that spend, same thing that's going on in the Mag 7, but in terms of the 5% decline practically in JP Morgan, I don't know if you thought that was surprising at all.
B
I'm surprised, but it's an opportunity. I mean the question is really more the surprise as to why one bank responded differently than peers and less high quality peers. But you know, to me as an investor and someone who said, I'm sure yesterday on this show how excited I was about this environment for banks. Nothing changes here. Everything I heard is the reason why you want to own banks. Do you. Would you rather hear JP Morgan say, we don't know what to do with our money, we're going to buy back shares? I don't think so. Would you rather hear JP Morgan Say we actually want to invest in infrastructure and asset heavy stuff they're investing in, in revenue related to incentive comp that's ultimately comp that's tied to a top line growth. There's nothing wrong with that. And all we would have wanted to hear banks do is say we're investing in a. I like everybody else because if you're investors now, you're already rolling out the curve of where investing around AI is not investing in semiconductors as much as is investing in companies that are going to benefit most on margin. So I like this number. I love the fact that Citi finished at 52 week high on bond weakness on JP Morgan.
A
So is this just about the valuation? The spend plus the valuation?
E
Yeah, I think Jamie Dimon looks at this and here's a guy who said we're not buying back our stock at these levels. Right. So to guy's point, you know, trading near three times tangible book, which is a huge premium relative to obviously its peers but also its own history. And you think about a stock that okay fine, it's down four and a half percent, it's actually tracking in line with the s and P500. So if you think what Tim just said is a great environment for banks, for some reason the best bank was trading basically on a performance level worse than many of its peers. Now the flip side of that is you see, you know, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, they've been, you know, just on a parabolic move. And I think a lot of that has to do some of the recent data about deals in general.
D
Right.
E
And so if you think about the outlook for 2026, it still looks pretty good. And those two banks are in the Capron seat.
F
I think the mistake one could make here is reading the JPM comments of response as a message on the entire group. I mean we are 24 hours removed from new highs in almost every single bank stock around the world. I thought it was notable today that this did not in fact Goldman Sachs new high. Morgan Stanley new high. Citigroup new high. I mean one of the key features of this bull for the last two plus years has been the banks have been involved every single week, week after week after week. I still think that's largely intact here. I would also note some of the forgotten neglected corners of the sector are also inflecting here. Look at the move Apollo had today or Blackstone or Owl. So as they rotate away from jpm it seems again more rotational than it does outright distributive.
A
Yeah. Marianne Lake also spoke about the Consumer and what they are seeing. She noted that they skew higher income. But overall what they are seeing is very positive terms.
B
Resilient.
A
Resilient. This interesting point about people, you know, people in the lower income are really suffering, as you say resilient five times. I don't know why. Who have a credit card balance and an auto loan, you want to look at that. Because obviously they pay off the auto loan first and not the credit card. But they're seeing, they don't see any weakness there.
D
Yeah, but we also see. And they probably won't and I'm sure they're absolutely telling you people what they're seeing. The reality is though, if you look at some of these consumer credit numbers, they're all continuing to go, in my opinion, in the wrong direction. And it comes at a time where I think the unemployment rate is going to continue to go in the wrong direction. I don't think that paints a great picture. And if you read some of these retailers, obviously there's been a huge trade down. So yeah, I think JP Morgan is probably insulated from a lot of this stuff and it makes sense. Brian Moynihan will tell a similar story. But I think on the margins, things are deteriorating more than they're getting better.
A
All right, well, we are less than 24 hours until the last Fed decision of the year with traders pricing in a near 90% chance that the committee cuts interest rates by a quarter of a point tomorrow. For more on the market impact, let's bring in Fast Money friend and Richard Bernstein Advisors Deputy CIO Michael Kintopoulos. Michael, great to see you.
G
Nice to see you too.
A
Let's assume that there is a cut. What is the commentary going to be like coming out of that cut?
G
I think it's going to be hawkish. You know, when you look at the data, I'm not entirely certain there's a real compelling reason to cut interest rates tomorrow. I think they're going to do it because the market is telling them to do it and they very rarely disappoint the market. But there's enough dissent amongst FOMC committee members where I think Chair Powell is going to have to come out with his cut, but then kind of talk the market a little bit hawkish and say, listen, January certainly not a sure thing. In fact, it likely won't happen. And you know, the balance of risks right now are pretty, pretty much tilting towards tighter versus market expectations rather than, rather than easier.
A
Yeah. So let's extrapolate a little into 2026 then, Michael. We've been talking about this for a while, but the assumption that the Fed will in fact be dovish and will deliver cuts next year because there will be a dovish chairperson put at the helm. But the fact of the matter is it's a very divided Federal Reserve right now and we don't actually know what will happen. We don't know what will happen at the longer end. I'm just wondering like how you think about that and the possibility that the market could actually be disappointed because they might not get what they're pricing in right now at these valuations.
G
Yeah, I think, I think much of the rally we've seen over the last six months or so, Melissa, has really been driven by liquidity and the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year. And to your point, you know, I don't think that's really sustainable. There's not a good reason to do so. If the next chairperson were to come in and cut interest rates and inflation remain around 3% or even go higher. If economic growth continues at sort of the level it is now, you're going to see meaningfully higher interest rates and that's actually going to put a dent on some of these high valuation speculative excesses within the market. You know, that's not just, you know, sort of. I'm talking about cryptocurrencies, credit spreads, meme stocks, SPACs. I mean they're all liquidity driven investments off of expectations for an easier Fed. So from my perspective, this is one of the biggest risks to the broad markets at the moment, but also creates.
B
A lot of opportunity as well, Michael. So let's drill a little bit into the excess of spend. And I think your notes are fascinating when you talk about the spend on the credit side reminds you a little bit of fiber shale build outs and you point out that the end of those stories wasn't great. Are you concerned? You know, we've got Eric Oracle's earnings that are, you know, clearly a major focus for not only the, not so much Oracle's balance sheet as much as is for the tenor of a lot of these plays and other call them cash generative companies that suddenly people might be looking at differently. So just spell that out a little bit more.
G
Yeah. So Tim, you know what's interesting is if you are truly a technology bull, if you're an AI bull, then why are you going to fund investments in these massive data centers for funding 40 years which is some of this debt that's being issued? It's like saying you don't believe in technological innovation and obsolescence. You're saying we're at the peak of technology innovation at the moment. Chips aren't going to get more efficient, that you're not going to be able to do.
The massive amount of computing power that takes to run AI within a much smaller framework. I actually think if you're a bullish AI, very bullish technology, you almost can't fund this investment in data centers that the hyperscalers are doing using debt. Right, because you're going to be obsolete. There's a good chance you're obsolete well within the time frame of the debt issuance. It's not a coincidence that much of this debt issuance is happening off balance sheet. I mean, one of the key reasons why mega cap growth was such a darling for so long was because they were asset light companies with pristine balance sheets. And it's not that they're going to go bankrupt. That's not what we're saying at all. But you can destroy a lot of value and into equity multiples if many of these projects don't end up having the return on investment that that these companies and credit investors think they will.
A
Michael, it's great to speak with you as always. Thank you.
F
Thanks, Michael.
A
Topless Richard Bernstein Advisors.
E
Yeah, on the debt side, I mean you could broaden this out a little bit. I mean there's some that are going to be in much worse situations than other, you know, matter. Putting this into an SPV and getting, you know, equity and credit being put into this vehicle, I mean, you know, is a great credit.
B
Right.
E
But if you think about Oracle and we' seen what's happened to their CDS over the last few months and this is really since those obligations or at least those contracts that they were given from OpenAI. I mean the narrative around OpenAI over the last few weeks has just changed so dramatically. It was like Sam Altman in this company could do no wrong. And this has gone on for three years and they've been given the benefit of doubt and all of a sudden code reds and this and that or whatever. I mean, if you're like Oracle, how can you be sure that you're going to get these contracts that are over the next five years or so. We've been talking about it since that, that day in September when the stock gapped up 40% or so. It just seemed ludicrous that investors were willing to actually match the expected revenue over five years in market cap just like that. And look at how quickly it sold off and gave back all of those gains. And I think it has a lot to do with when you peel back the onion, people are like how are they going to pay for this? You know. And so to me it's just kind of shocking that that is not spread to other parts of this trade.
F
Dan, let's go back to the Fed for a moment. It's, it's remarkable how many times I've heard the phrase hawkish cut over the last couple of weeks. It feels so overdone. And remember we're just three weeks removed from everyone being worried that the Fed wouldn't cut in December when Fed fund odds got down to something like 25 or 30%. There is so much tape chasing and narrative chasing after the fact here. Here's I think the reality. 10 year bond yields have been in the same range for the last three years. As long as they're between call it 390 and 450. I think the same status quo likely reigns. Fed fund futures for June of 26 really haven't moved this entire time. They've been about 340, 350 the entire time. So let's assume they go tomorrow. Let's assume they go maybe one more time over the next three or four months. That's where the market is saying I think the neutral rate probably is.
A
That's a pretty big band. It feels like 399 or 392 to 450. I feel like you crossed 425 and like that's the logical man's band. But the reality of the market reaction will be for 25 and there are.
B
Couldn't that be the logical woman's band?
A
I mean like human. Like human.
B
I know what you were saying.
F
I think what's interesting, this move the last couple of weeks that has brought 10 year yields from 399 back to 420. It's been accompanied with pretty pro cyclical leadership. I get worried with rates moving higher and defensives really taking control of the market. That has not been the case here. So I think the market is saying if anything hey, the growth outlooks okay here. You know, regional banks, transports, retail, all pretty good.
B
I think it's fair to say that that that band, whether it was 30 bips or 60 bips is a proven three year range that has encountered a lot of different dynamics which have included growth scares, deficit scares, foreign buyers, buyers of our, of our bond market scares. And I still think you do in terms of equity fundamentals. Start to look at the change as we always say, it'll be the velocity of the move and it will look as we get close to 450 that's all we'll out. But I think Chris is right. I think Carter's been on here Talking about the 10 years have done nothing. I do think that there is some risk because I don't think we've really challenged a lot of the deficit concerns out there on top of the global debt markets which at least in Japan don't look so great. But until they don't, that's not our issue for this equity market right now.
D
What I've thought, and I will continue to think the market's going to challenge whoever this new Fed chair is, he or she. And you know, each passing day we're getting closer to May and I think the market is going to start to do it now. And I think that's we're in the midst of so throw that in the mix that a new Fed chair is always challenged on top of everything Tim's talking about and more and more people to start to talk about the move in dollar yen which is now through 157 and the fact that their bond market continues to deteriorate. I think that's coming to a theater near you here in the United States.
B
Yeah.
E
And if the scenario that you just mentioned, if growth is good, if labor market's good, if inflation's coming down, then why do they need to cut and why is the market so dependent on that cut? And I'm going to take you back to that Last meeting in 2024 is December 18th. The stock market sold off 3% like that when they actually did a hawkish cut and there was still pricing for June of 2025. We didn't get there. And so you know, the fact that the market trades as well as it does this year, you know, it's, it's really kind of a hard case to make why they should be cutting so aggressively.
A
Meantime, Wal Mart's transformation into true tech titan may officially be complete. The stock stock started trading here on the NASDAQ today after five decades on the New York Stock Exchange. The company has embraced technology as a part of its business, helping it grow to a market cap of more than $900 billion. And with a forward PE that exceeds most of the MAG7. We wondered should Walmart be the next member of this group? Yeah, maybe it should replace. Maybe it should bump somebody out of the seven and be replaced with Walmart. It's got a premium valuation, it's lean to attack. They have over the course of years really been very steady and strong in terms of its capex. In terms of investments in technology. They've leaned in leaving Target in the dust to the point where it's going to be a huge catch up for Target to catch up to where Walmart is.
D
Yeah, another 7%. It's a trillion dollar company. I think it will be. I think we've been pretty consistent over the years that Walmart's world and you should continue to own the stock regardless of valuation. They had a great interview this morning on Sweden Squawk Box talking about the basically how they're integrating AI and how margins have been improving and how well they're dealing with their inventories. A lot of reasons to continue to be bullish and congratulations to the NASDAQ for getting them forward looking. Yeah. And I think the stock goes higher from here.
E
Yeah, I mean I know that's a rhetorical question.
D
Right.
E
Because if you think about what percent of their revenues are really being aided, I think you have to think about the business in general. And we just spent a few minutes talking about J.P. morgan. Why did J.P. morgan get hit? Because their expenses are going higher.
A
What, what percent of revenues are being aided by AI? Yeah, by technology, but automation, robotics.
E
But that's their business, that's what they're there to do. And they're supposed to take advantage of.
A
The thing about saying that as an AI company.
E
Well, I'm not saying you made up the question either.
A
Actually I did make up the question but anyway.
E
But my point is, is like I know it's an exercise but my point is then should we put J.P. morgan in there? They just said they're going to be investing. This is the next wave of this trade. How are companies getting, you know, some sort of productivity? How are they advancing their businesses? And so think about insurance, think about in research as it relates to health care, think about a whole host of other sectors. This is what this whole spend, this whole build out is for.
B
Well, you know the mag Sevens are, you know, effectively if you look at matter if you look at Amazon for sure those are not really tech companies. Right. And I think if you look at what Walmart has done, obviously this move to the Nasdaq is symbolic. It's intentional to be symbolic. And this is a company that you're paying a higher multiple for because they invested in technology. And so yeah, I mean I think you stay here, I don't think you want to get rid of it. I think you can probably find ranges in Wal Mart. I think it's got some room to run on this run, but we get any kind of a growth scare. I don't care about the upper echelon consumer spending. That valuation is going to be a problem. We're not there yet, but I think you can trade this one a little more actively.
A
How does this chart look?
F
The Wal Mart looks great. And remember though, it's kind of gone nowhere for 10 months. Until the last two weeks it was in this very, very tight range. Broke out pretty decisively I think. Any check back or pullback you buy.
A
All right, we'll have more on Wal Mart's big move and a pairs trade against one of its big box rivals later on in the show. At first, all the headlines from G.E. branova's investor day. What is next for this high flying energy stock? Stay tuned.
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Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of GE Vernova popping after hours. The company holding its investor meeting this afternoon giving some positive long term guidance. Cnbc. Sima Modi has been at the investor day, been monitoring it. She's got the details. Sima?
I
Well as the company did raise its financial targets 2025 revenue is expected to trend higher and even looking forward to 2028 margins of 20%. That's higher than the initial estimate. It provided a 14%. What the street wasn't expecting was the buyback announcement. Increasing buyback from 6 to $10 billion and doubling its dividend.
A
Right.
I
How many companies in the ecosystem right now are not only focused on capital expenditures but also allocating money back to shareholders? So I thought that was significant. What is fueling this growth story is gas power. A lot of interest in its gas power turbines which continues to accelerate. Its order book which is sold out for the coming for the foreseeable Future looking to two to four years out, the CEO Scott Strazak telling me that the company is entering 2026 with significant momentum and that is unique or significant I should say Melissa, because there's been concerns over the last four weeks around open air code red monetization. This is a company that works with every hyperscaler across the market to help them build the energy resources they need as they stand up data centers as well as OpenAI which Strasag did confirm with me about a month ago post earnings. Let's look at the stock of all the AI industrial names. GE Vernova now up over 90%. So it's the best performing stock amongst these specific players and analysts have been talking about how that's raised some concerns around valuation when you look at where it's trading in comparison to its peers in the industrial space. But even Nvidia at 30 times this is 56. So that is an open ended question.
A
Have they talked about their nuclear business? Did they mention that like in terms.
I
Of the growth their nuclear is definitely a longer term opportunity right now the focus, because they know this is what the market wants to hear is on gas power and electrification valuation because of the significant order book there.
A
All right Sima, thank you Sima Modi. We've been talking about GEV for a long time. The average price target on the street 689 which is still quite a bit higher from where it is right now.
D
Yeah, the 37 estimates and SEMA does a great job. I'll say this. Yes, it's a big valuation. Yeah. They have 75% EPS growth which at some point they won't have, but right now they do and they're in a sweet spot. They're also buying back stock which says to me they believe in a story. I mean $10 billion on $170 billion market cap company is not insignificant. I think you stay long the name.
F
You know, and Guy, you would certainly know this. The stock hasn't been just straight up for the last six months. Actually consolidated very good since July. It's down 20% off. The highs never broke down. I think turning back up here those 680 targets where the Street's at, those have to be raised.
B
Yeah, I think the margin profile in some of these businesses is again why you're giving it a higher multiple and boy, you've given it a higher multiple multiple on a trailing basis, which may not be relevant, but it is on some level. It's over 100 times. But I think if you look at their power electrification segment, which is a major part of this story, that's getting to 20% EBITDA margins, which is part of why I think the world is very excited. I would stay excited here too.
A
Would you stay excited if we knew that datacenter spend was being pulled back?
B
Not as much, but I'm not sure we're seeing that. Yes, there's no question that there would be dominoes to fall from that. But, but the electric demand story as we've also talked about many times, is not just data center. It really is the grid. It really is everything else that does need infrastructure.
A
Yep. By the way, in case we haven't mentioned this, Vernova CEO will be on squawk on the street tomorrow morning. So you won't want to miss that. All right. There is a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
B
Fresh reaction from DC as Nvidia gears up to sell AI chips to China. The risks, the reward and the implications for other top names in this trade next. But first, big gains for small caps. The Russell 2000 hitting a fresh all time high ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. How far could this group run? You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing near their lows of the day as investors await tomorrow's Fed decision. The Dow shedding 180 points. The S and P just in the red. The NASDAQ up slightly. The small cap Russell 2000 leading the pack and closing at a record. Shares of CVS rising after the company raised its profit forecast for the next year. The stock is pacing for its best year since 1982. Home Depot, meanwhile, gave disappointing revenue guidance for 2026 shares were down a percent. ExxonMobil shares higher after the oil major raised its earnings and cash flow forecast through the end of the decade. And take a look at wavelife. This is the stock that we talked about Yesterday, up another 15% today after yesterday's nearly 150% pop. The biotech released positive results for its experimental weight loss drug. Got an upgrade in today's session. And Silver shining bright today, settling 4% higher to hit its 10th record of the year. The medal has more than doubled in 2025, outpacing gold, seeing its best year since 1979. What were you doing in 1979? Guy?
D
I was. Well, if I'm being honest, I believe I was a sophomore in high school and I had my appendix taken out. Really ruptured appendix. I have a great scar that I will share with you if you want to see it.
A
No thank you.
Basically saying no thank you in a very aggressive way. Anyway, I figure you want to talk.
D
Silver because it's because too much of the chagrin of a lot of people out there. They can't Keep a lid on silver here and more and more people are going to start to talk about it now. It is clearly broken out. Chris can speak to that. And don't sleep on the mining stocks, stocks that Tim talks about. Look at the move in Newmont just today. So the GDX and names like Pan American Silver are absolutely telling a story. I think I know what the story is but I think they continue to go higher as well.
F
Guy, let me ask you what do you the fact that SLV new high pretty decisively could be great chart continues to work. Gold no new high. And my suspicion is we're kind of rotating from purely precious to more industrial and base metals. But I'm curious your take.
D
It's silver is definitely as an end use. It's definitely an industrial metal. It's also playing major catch up in terms of the gold trade. I think that's part of it. I don't underestimate what you're saying. But I also think we're still in the early innings of the gold trade. I think gold is just setting up for the next leg higher. But you're right to point out the silver's over outperformed the last.
F
I think the GDX over GLD pair makes sense here. The stocks have acted frankly better over the last couple of weeks as gold has kind of attempted to come off this 4200 level.
A
But how about SLV versus Gold GLD?
F
I like SLV.
A
That's to your question that you ask.
F
I like SLV over gold here. I would just note as a kind of point of observation you did 4 billion notional on SLV today. A typical day would be 750 billion. So there's an enthusiasm there that one might want to be mindful of.
A
Just quickly Dan, because I want to get to you on Exxon. I wasn't on the call but I heard that you thought Exxon's chart was ready to party or something like that which seemed very undan like the term that. So I had to, I had to sign up.
E
I mean listen, you can speak to it and you and I did speak to it earlier today. You know, this is one where we haven't given a lot of thought to. We've been talking about generally the excellent, the underperformance that we've seen and we've seen some rotation but this one has been, I don't know a basing with on the bottom end. It looks like it's making a series of higher lows and it really looks like it wants to break out.
B
The corporate plan they delivered was, I thought, not all that exciting. But I think we didn't want excitement and we actually wanted to hear about a little bit less capex talk about precious metals. They're going higher and the GDX will continue to outperform in the current environment where I think actually the miners have their costs under control, but industrial metals probably have more room to run and I would be getting after Copperplace. I'm long all those names. GLTR is the ETF to get your precious metals.
A
Coming up, Nvidia gets a green light to sell AI chips to China. So why isn't the stock higher? The reaction from D.C. see the implications for the trade that's next.
B
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
A
Welcome back to FAST money. Fresh reaction on Capitol Hill this evening to President Trump's decision to let Nvidia sell its H200 chips to China. CNBC's Emily Wilkins got the latest from Washington. Emily.
I
Hey, Melissa. Well, yeah, look, lawmakers in Trump's own party told me today that they are concerned that selling those H200 chips to China is going to undermine the US advantages when it comes to AI. Now, Trump's announcement, remember, came only two months after the Senate passed a package of bills, including a provision that would have banned those H200 chips from being sold to China in the first place. They spoke with Senator Josh Hawley. He said that China needs to have reduced access to to US Hardware. Also spoke with Senator Lindsey Graham, who told me he was skeptical.
B
Lauren Bell's Golf in my head here, I don't know. I don't want to give them a I don't mind doing normal business with.
F
China, but if you can prove to.
B
Me this will accelerate their military capability, I'll oppose it.
I
Now, not all Republicans oppose this announcement. Senator Mike Rounds told me that he supports the move because the H200 is not the most advanced Nvidia chip. He also said it's important that developers around the world really begin to build AI with those US Chips. Now, while the most recent efforts on Capitol Hill to limit exports have fallen short, other bills could gain support would require chips to be tracked in order to know where they are and what they're being used for. Melissa.
A
Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins in Washington. So there's the opposition on Capitol Hill, but then there's also the reality that previously the Chinese government has either blocked or dissuaded companies from buying US Chips and whether or not they're going to condone Chinese companies buying H200 chips, that is a big question mark. I mean, maybe that's why the stocks really had no reaction today's session.
B
Well, it was notable last night, didn't get the kind of pop. I, I think this is a better news for other chip players than Nvidia and I think it's AMD more than Nvidia for sure on the Mi325. But yeah, I mean, I think there's some sense that we want to share technology, but we don't want to give everything away. China's, China is going to have the ability to, they're going to have their own chips to counter the 325 and the 200.
D
Yeah.
E
And they're kind of doing it and they're doing it in a way where they're being forced to do it. Right. And so you think about the government, they really would like Huawei, which is one of their national champions, to actually find a way to get close, close to Nvidia's chips. They don't want their model makers be, you know, subject to Cuda software and being locked into that. Those investments that you're making right now, you're making a long term investment in that software. And when you think about, you know, Deep Seek, which is almost a year ago, I mean, it's pretty clear that yes, they definitely did use some Nvidia GPUs and they can train these models offshore. And I think that's what's going on. There's also a black market for these chips. But it is clear that they use clusters of Huawei chips and they are willing to do with less. And I think that's the story here. So if they put out, I believe there's another deep seat moment. I believe that there's another model that's going to be coming out. And I actually think that gives the Chinese a little bit of leverage. But you know, this is something that is going to fracture Trump's base right here because there's a lot of folks, you just heard Lindsey Graham who just don't understand or don't get the reasons for this. And I think the government or the White House wants to take a 25% big on this. I mean, it's just a little insane. You want a way to get videos, margins down from 75% to lower. You pay a 25% vig on those chips that you're selling and I'll do it.
D
There's a school of thought that you know, you give them a lesser chip, it will thwart innovation there, which actually sort of keeps the lid on things. You know, I'm not smart enough to know. But I'll say this, Tim said it last night, the lack of move in the stock last night told you everything you need to know. So label me still a bit of a skeptic.
F
I mean, if any of us had known on October 29 that the stock would top and trade to 10, back to 180 or so today, and the rest of the semis would be just fine. I mean, micron new high today. Avgo new high today. 90% of semis above the 200 day. So the fact that this hasn't infected, I think the broader semi space is almost the more important message. That this really hasn't affected the broader market, I think, is almost the more important message.
A
Is this. Is there a broader message, though? That there is a level of wheeling and dealing that Trump is willing to engage in in order to sell chips abroad. So therefore, as you mentioned, Tim, it's better for other chip makers. Maybe the implicit message here is, is that export controls are only export controls for as long as I want them to be export controls and as long as it's convenient for me.
B
Yeah. Because I think we've seen that and export controls are opportunistic right now in a hot sector. Yeah. It's fascinating what the strategy will ultimately be, but I think technology will always lead the way. It's also hard for me to believe that in video, who no one knew anything about their AI chips and what was going on their GPUs five years ago and they were a graphics company. I'm guessing they're going to be on the leading edge the whole time.
A
Coming up, a pairs trade on the consumer. Chris Brown will take us off the charts to get the long and short on two big box names right after.
D
Oh.
A
Sorry, okay. We like. LAUGHTER.
B
Yeah.
A
Exactly, exactly. Tim, thank you. Welcome to Fast Money. It's been a tale of two very different second halves in the big box world. Shares of Wal Mart and Costco diverging sharply since July and Chris here thinks the trend will last into the new year. So let's go off the charts. What are you seeing here?
F
Well, I think importantly, let's remember where we are on the calendar. It's December. Winners tend to be rewarded in December and Wal Mart has certainly been the winner in this space. I mean, remember, it took eight or nine months for this ultimately to break up through that 110 level. It was resistance Resistance. It finally did it just a couple of weeks ago. I think it's too early to back away from this. I'm a buyer of any pullback kind of into the 106108 range. I think 130 is ultimately where this is going to. And if you juxtapose it against its friend Costco, two very, very different charts here. And I mean, Costco has been in this topping formation really for the better part of the last 18 months. It is probably oversold in the very near term. I would be a seller of bounces. I think ultimately circle 800 on the chart. That's probably where this is going. But in the discussion of our broader commentary about the consumer, I mean, XRT back at the highs without Amazon, without Costco, I think it's a pretty powerful message.
A
How about Wal Mart and Target as a Paris trade, which is the typical way we think of those two?
F
Yeah, I still lean Wal Mart here. It's the best start setup of the whole shorting Target. Yeah, listen, I think on the long side, certainly Wal Mart Target has had its own problems for a considerable amount of time.
D
Costco is at a big level. This is right around the March Low, I think 885 or something. We're trading right now. There's been no meaningful bounce, which is actually surprising. But as Louisa Mata says, and she's watching right now, I hope you quote.
A
Her correctly because you have not been quoting her correctly for a long time.
B
Been taking liberties with Louise.
A
You really have. I mean, the directionally and the sentiment is accurate, but the quote is not accurate. But go ahead, try.
D
The longer the base, the higher in outer space.
A
Okay, there's no outer space. Just space. It's just space.
D
Well, we've been in outer space. We're about to be in outer space space. But the base has been in Wal Mart for the last three years. And I don't take liberties with Louis Yamada. I take umbrage with that statement, but I don't take liberties. Melissa, back to you just there's no outer.
A
It's just space.
B
But anyway, well, to support Chris's chart work, which is always great, I think you have a case where you can look at the revenue story in Wal Mart and you can definitely look at the renewal rates in terms of even their Wal Mart plus and put it up there with Costco. But actually take the revenue growth, growth and put it well past Costco, which is why I think if all were evil. Excuse me. Or equal on valuations, you definitely want to buy Walmart So I'm Wal Mart. I haven't owned Costco in years. That's been probably not a good thing. But I'm very happy owning Wal Mart. As I said, I think you're going to get some opportunities with Wal Mart if you haven't bought it here. Even though Chris likes, you know, maybe even this breakout after six months of sitting around, that's great.
A
You think Walmart's going to go into outer space?
B
I think, I think it's like Wal Mart, relative to three years ago is in outer space.
A
It is, yeah.
D
Okay.
A
Definitely.
B
And this was a stock that people struggled with with a 20 multiple on it, let alone 35.
D
Maybe Morgan Brennan should start covering Wal Mart. She's a space reporter and this is right. I mean, that makes. She's watching right now.
A
I'm sure she is. Coming up, coming up, what Investor PD's latest survey says about how traders are feeling into year end, what they expect to from Wednesday's Fed rate decision and much, much more. Here's a sneak peek, by the way, at the Kramer camp, Jim is chatting exclusively with the Marvell Tech CEO. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. Meantime, more Fast Money into.
Welcome back to Fast Money. Retail investors cautiously optimistic as we head into the last few weeks of the year. That's according to the latest Investor PD reader survey. But can anything scare this group? Fast Money friend and Invest Media editor in chief Caleb Silver is here on set. They sound pretty bullish, actually.
H
Finding more reasons to believe and staying optimistic. Worried about less even though worried about bubbles in the market, but not unrealistic about future expectations. When we ask them, what do you think about returns over the next six months? 6 to 12 months. 5% ish. 5 to 10%. So nobody's thinking this goes on forever in a crazy way. So realistic and they've been through a lot this year so far.
A
Yeah, realistic when it comes to AI too, because they do see the possibility that there is the B word in this group.
H
Absolutely. That is their top choice for bubbly assets right now, followed by cryptocurrency, of course. So they do feel the bubbles, yet they're invested in a lot of the stocks that are associated with this. And we're all kind of trapped in that little vortex right now, but they've hung with it and they were even buying the dip back in November. If you look at the Stacks index and a lot of the other trackers, individual investors have really kind of hung in there while you've had fund managers and maybe Institutional investors backing off just a little bit.
B
All right.
E
There's a new game in town. All right. It's called event contracts. What are the people saying about these things? I mean, because they are literally all the craze right now.
H
Yeah. This mix up between prediction markets, event contracts, day trading, options trading, cryptocurrency, all slamming together, that is definitely on the minds of a lot of investors. We can see it in what they're searching for across investor pd and they're trying to learn the terms that make all of these things apply because that mentality is definitely becoming more pervasive among retail investors. But still, they are tried and true investors with big large cap stocks. They've been that way for a long time. They intend to be that way for a long time.
D
Most favorite question, what would you do with an extra 10k? Let me ask you this. Pay down debt is number six. But if that moves up, is that a warning sign? Because my instincts suggest that if people are focused on paying down debt, something bad is going on.
H
Yeah. And you can see that bubbling up.
D
A little bit more.
H
But you, what you don't see there is people saying gold, I would buy gold or silver. You guys were talking about that earlier. So that is sort of a. I should probably do this. But at the same time, I'm an investor. That's why I'm here. That's why they on investor pd. Anyway, so they're ready to buy stocks, individual stocks, with that extra 10.
B
And that's. So that's where I'm going. So if individual stocks are the number one thing they do with their ten grand and CDs are down to three, three. Is that a function or do you think there's a relationship between the two? In other words, as rates have come down, does some of this money want to get into the stock market?
H
Absolutely. And they've done well by saving for the past few years, but they're ready to buy more stocks. And if they have the opportunity or an extra discretionary 10 grand, they would do it. That said, they've been diversified and kind of buying the big stocks all along, so it's not like they're going out on too big of a risk.
F
Caleb, is this a big difference from what the survey would have looked like in April or May?
H
Yeah, definitely. We saw in April they were backed off, way backed off. And there was policy uncertainty and obviously tariffs. That was on their minds. We're also coming up with our terms of the year for investor pd. This year we asked our readers for their top term. Of course it was tariffs, but they were also fascinated with other things that were happening in the markets, especially private markets.
A
When do we get the 2026 outlook?
H
It's coming up soon. We'll have that also with our top terms of the year. So watch this space.
A
Caleb. It's always great to see. Caleb, by the way, has a fancy new title.
D
What's. Let me hear it.
A
What is it?
H
Caleb, Chief business editor, my man.
A
Yes.
E
You know, with that fit, he could be in People magazine. Look at that. Think Mary would let us get away with that or. No, not really.
A
Merino, wool, cashmere. All right, Caleb, great to see you. Thank you. Up next, final trades.
Final trade time. Tim.
B
Good. Have you Chris. JP Morgan. I think that's weakness. You're buying from the best of the breed.
A
Chris.
F
Well, I'll stick with the banks, but how about kre the regionals? I think benefit with a deeper curve.
A
Dan.
E
Yeah, if Exxon looks like it's ready to party, I think you buy the XLE guy.
D
You know, strategus is in fact, they're correct.
A
Yeah.
D
Harmony Hmy.
A
Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
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This episode, hosted by Melissa Lee with Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Chris Verone, dives into the fallout from JPMorgan’s surprise expense warning and its ripple effect across the banking sector. The panel also covers the Fed’s much-anticipated interest rate decision, the ongoing tech arms race (especially AI’s role in both banking and retail), and provides actionable insight into major moves in retail, energy, and precious metals. In depth, the team analyzes Wal Mart's rise as a tech-driven retailer, fresh guidance from GE Vernova, the intricacies of Nvidia’s China chip sales, and the mood of retail investors as the year ends.
On JPMorgan’s expense spike:
Tim Seymour (06:37):
“Everything I heard is the reason why you want to own banks. Do you. Would you rather hear JP Morgan say, we don't know what to do with our money, we're going to buy back shares? I don’t think so.”
On AI capex and tech valuations:
Michael Kintopoulos (13:17):
“If you are truly a technology bull, if you’re an AI bull, then why are you going to fund investments in these massive data centers for funding 40 years which is some of this debt that’s being issued? ... There’s a good chance you’re obsolete well within the time frame of the debt issuance.”
On Wal Mart as a tech leader:
Melissa Lee (19:14):
“Should Walmart be the next member of [MAG7]? Yeah, maybe it should ... it’s got a premium valuation, it’s leaned into tech.”
On silver’s rally:
Guy Adami (31:05):
“They can't keep a lid on silver here ... mining stocks like Newmont, Pan American Silver are absolutely telling a story.”
Capitol Hill on Nvidia’s China sales:
Senator Lindsey Graham, via Emily Wilkins (34:48):
“If you can prove to me this will accelerate their military capability, I’ll oppose it.”
| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |---------|-------|-----------| | JPMorgan warning, expense breakdown, sector impact | [02:15]–[09:10] | | Fed Decision Outlook & Market Implications | [10:11]–[18:42] | | Wal Mart as Tech, Chart Analysis | [19:14]–[22:11] | | GE Vernova Guidance & AI-Industrial Bulls | [24:21]–[27:48] | | Gold/Silver Rally, Miner Outperformance | [29:51]–[33:04] | | Nvidia, US-China AI Chip Sales | [33:31]–[38:56] | | Retail Pairs Trade (Wal Mart vs. Costco) | [39:17]–[42:08] | | Retail Investor Sentiment, Survey Recap | [42:55]–[46:10] |
The panel balances skepticism with optimism, highlighting both longer-term trends (AI, retail transformation) and tactical market trades. Their banter remains energetic, with a healthy mix of technicals, macro insights, and actionable ideas—making the episode actionable and engaging for retail and institutional audiences alike.