CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Looking for Clarity on Tariffs and Can Gold Keep Shining Bright?
Release Date: April 1, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Introduction
In this episode of CNBC's "Fast Money," host Melissa Lee, alongside a panel of top traders—including Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Katie Stockton—delves into the pressing issues of tariffs and their implications for the markets, alongside an in-depth analysis of the gold market's recent surge. The discussion provides investors with actionable insights amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.
Tariffs and Market Uncertainty
Anticipation of President Trump's Tariff Announcement
The episode kicks off with widespread anticipation as markets brace for President Trump's upcoming tariff announcement scheduled for the Rose Garden. Megan Kisella from the White House provides a detailed overview of the potential tariff scenarios:
- Extreme Tariffs: Up to 20% on nearly all imports.
- Tiered Tariffs: Customized rates based on country-specific criteria.
- Middle-Ground Tariffs: A lower than 20% tariff on a smaller subset of countries.
Megan also highlights the possibility of revoking the de minimis threshold for China, which would significantly impact companies like Sheehan and Tamu, as well as platforms like Etsy.
Panel Discussion on Market Reactions
Guy Adami weighs in on the market's expectations, suggesting that investors may have already priced in the peak uncertainty surrounding tariffs:
"I think he's [President Trump] going to do something down the middle which will provide a bit of a relief rally. I think it's going to be short-lived." [05:10]
Dan Nathan adds that while the market seeks certainty, the lack of clarity on consumer responses to tariffs keeps volatility high:
"So to me that's where you probably have 5,500 to the downside going to 5,400, maybe 5,200." [06:58]
Impact on Bonds and Gold
Katie Stockton notes the decline in the 10-year yield below 4.15%, indicating potential shifts in long-term interest rates:
"We have long-term shifts suggesting yields could come in even further, maybe sub four before we come out of this." [07:50]
Gold Market Analysis
Record Highs and Technical Insights
The panel shifts focus to gold, discussing its recent record-breaking performance. Katie Stockton emphasizes gold's strong positive momentum across various time horizons:
"We've surpassed in gold the price objectives that we can derive from the most recent breakout." [11:24]
Physical Gold vs. Gold Mining Stocks
Ryan McIntyre from Sprott provides an optimistic outlook on gold, projecting potential resistance at $3,200:
"We first see the resistance for gold at 3200 and if we see it break beyond that, we see quite a bit of upside from there." [12:41]
Phil LeBeau discusses the unique appeal of physical gold, contrasting it with the underperformance of gold mining stocks despite gold's surge:
"People really have a visceral reaction to wanting something physical... independent from other asset classes." [13:38]
Comparison with Cryptocurrencies
When questioned about Bitcoin's role, Phil maintains that gold remains a steadfast hedge due to its physical nature and historical reliability:
"Gold's got the track record, gold's got the unique attribute of being physical, which bitcoin does not have." [16:04]
Stock Insights: CoreWeave and Newsmax
CoreWeave's Impressive Rally
CoreWeave's stock performance is dissected following Cathie Wood's Ark Invest investment:
"Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan were the underwriters... they create a short squeeze." [20:46]
Guy Adami expresses skepticism about the sustainability of CoreWeave's surge:
"It's a physical. The outperformer here, it's physical gold... I'd rather be in the miners." [16:50]
Newsmax's Explosive Growth
Newsmax stocks soared over 2,000% in just two days, outpacing giants like Fox and Warner Brothers. The panel debates the sustainability and implications of such meteoric rises:
"It's the next meme stock... similar to DJT." [43:52]
"It's isolated, kind of. I mean... we don't know where this will be trading." [44:59]
Automotive Sector Outlook
Surge in Auto Sales Pre-Tariffs
Despite recent economic pressures, auto sales saw a significant uptick, particularly in high-demand segments:
"General Motors seeing an increase of 16.7%... Ford's F series sales up 24%." [37:01]
Impact of Tariffs on Auto Industry
Kathleen Feinerman discusses the potential repercussions of tariffs on vehicle prices and demand:
"Automakers understand that passing these costs will ultimately bring down demand... annual sales closer to 14 million." [39:18]
Inventory and Pricing Strategies
The discussion covers how automakers might adjust inventory and pricing in response to tariffs, anticipating higher prices in showrooms by mid-May:
"Dealers are likely to mark up prices a couple thousand dollars... through the end of April." [40:36]
Retail Investor Behavior
Shift in Trading Strategies on Robinhood
Stephanie Guild from Robinhood Financial provides insights into evolving retail investor behaviors:
"We have more buy puts and not as much buying of gold this year." [31:42]
"Our customer base has aged, now averaging 34-35 years old, diversifying their investment strategies." [33:27]
Impact of Economic Indicators
The panel discusses how upcoming employment reports and economic data could influence trading activities:
"If the unemployment rate starts to move, it could get dicey for certain trades." [32:37]
Concluding Insights
Navigating Market Volatility
The panelists agree that while uncertainty looms, strategic trading based on technical support levels and momentum can offer opportunities amidst volatility. Emphasis is placed on staying informed and adaptable to rapidly changing market conditions.
Looking Ahead
Melissa Lee wraps up by teasing upcoming discussions on tech sector recoveries, media stock surges, and the broader implications of President Trump's tariff policies on various industries.
This episode of "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape, offering investors valuable perspectives on tariffs, gold markets, stock performances, and evolving retail trading behaviors. With expert analysis and timely information, listeners are better equipped to make informed investment decisions in a tumultuous market environment.