CNBC Fast Money – Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Mag 7 Reports Results… And The Latest Fed Rate Decision
Air Date: January 29, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Michael Kantopoulos (Deputy CIO, Richard Bernstein Advisors)
Guest Analysts/Reporters: Julia Boorstin, Steve Kovach, Phil LeBeau, John Fortt, Kate Rogers, Steve Liesman, Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management)

Overview

This episode of Fast Money dissects a pivotal earnings day for the tech “Mag 7” (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla) alongside coverage of the latest Federal Reserve rate decision. As the S&P 500 crosses 7,000 for the first time, the panel examines how market leadership is shifting and what investors should watch from earnings, monetary policy, and sector moves. The conversation is packed with insight on tech capital expenditures, the future of AI, consumer sector resilience, and what the Fed’s “pause” means moving forward.

Key Discussion Points

1. Meta (Facebook) Earnings: Growth, CapEx & AI Monetization

[00:52–08:37]

• Strong Beat Across Metrics:

  • Meta reported Q1 earnings and revenues above expectations, with upbeat guidance lifting the stock ~9% after hours.
  • CapEx guidance ($115–135B, higher vs. $110B street expectation) was a major focus, but was validated by revenue performance and margin improvement.

• AI and Monetization:

  • Mark Zuckerberg emphasized growth investments in “agentic shopping,” boosting WhatsApp capabilities, and improving content creation—all AI-driven.
  • Average price per ad up 6% as monetization efficiencies accelerate; WhatsApp paid messaging reaches a $2B run rate.
  • Other wins: Smart glasses sales tripled, Threads platform expanding.

• Panel Reactions:

  • Tim Seymour: “This is a growth company again...The fact that they delivered revenues 24% ish versus 21%…significantly better than the 21, that to me is what the story is about.” [03:14]
  • Investors now see high CapEx as an enabler rather than a liability—“setup for Facebook was, you walk in here, it's up $50 or so and that's what's happening.” [04:13]
  • Dan Nathan: WhatsApp’s monetization “moves the needle.” Threads won’t “move the needle”—more relevant to focus on WhatsApp with “a couple billion…monthly actives.” [04:13]
  • The “asset-heavy” shift may risk future valuation, but for now, “as long as margins continue to improve people will look past the spend.” [07:05, Kantopoulos]

2. Microsoft Earnings: Azure Growth Disappointment & AI-Driven CapEx

[08:37–13:57]

• Numbers & Market Reaction:

  • Top/bottom line beats, but Azure cloud growth at 39% missed expectations (39.4%).
  • Remaining performance obligations (RPO) up 110% to $625B—45% of which comes from OpenAI.
  • Share price down ~5% post-market.

• AI Investments and Partnerships:

  • CapEx up 66% to $37.5B this quarter; $72B spent in H1—nearly matching all of FY2025’s spend.
  • Heavy exposure to OpenAI; new significant deal with Anthropic (AI competitor) is both an investment and a customer.

• Panel Perspective:

  • Concerns about “circular” relationship with AI partners—Microsoft invests in companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, which then buy Azure cloud services.
  • “That is circular at its finest. And it's messy, Dan. I mean, we're talking about customers or competitors…Meta doesn't have this.” [13:31, Kantopoulos]
  • Worries about valuation, the sustainability of cloud growth, and competitive overlap.

3. Tesla Earnings: Core Business Declines, But AI & Autonomy Drive Optimism

[13:57–20:06] & [34:26–39:31]

• Mixed Quarter:

  • Q4 beats on EPS ($0.50 vs. $0.45) and revenue (slightly above estimates), but first recorded annual revenue drop (−2.9% YoY).
  • Deliveries down 16% in 2025 vs. 2024.

• “Next Big Things”:

  • Full Self Driving (FSD) subscribers top 1.1 million, +38% YoY.
  • Plans for “Cybercab” volume production in 2026, Generation 3 Optimus robot debuting soon.
  • Expanding robotaxi pilot rollout to more U.S. cities (Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Las Vegas).

• Pivot from Legacy Models:

  • Elon Musk announces cessation of Fremont Model S and X production to retool for cybercab/autonomous vehicles. “Tesla will be ending production of the Model S and X…to ramp up production of the Cyber Cab.” [34:26]

• Analyst Take:

  • Gene Munster: “This is just a lot of good news tonight…there’s something bigger going on…how good FSD is now… That’s why they’re talking about cutting out the S and X…they’re feeling really good about where FSD is and they should… So that's my takeaway. I think this stock, it's not about valuation, it's about the hope of the future.” [35:41]
  • Dan Nathan: “If the earnings growth is not there and the core business, to Tim's point, is not performing…no reason why investors are going to reward high valuation companies.” [19:18]
  • Debate on how long investors will tolerate “losses” in the robotaxi segment—consensus: enormous addressable market justifies patience for now.

4. Federal Reserve Rate Decision: Hawkish Pause, Market Implications

[21:57–29:16]

• Fed Holds Rates:

  • After 3 consecutive cuts, Fed maintains rates at 3.5–3.25%. Upgrades economic assessment, notes “solid” (vs. “moderate”) expansion, stabilization in unemployment, but still “somewhat elevated” inflation.
  • Two dissenters (Waller and Myron) voted to cut; odds for Waller as next Fed chair rise.

• No Rate Moves Expected Soon:

  • Markets anticipate next cut in June, with limited confidence in a second cut this year.

• Panel & Guest Viewpoints:

  • Steve Liesman: “It may be that rates are going to come down eventually, but markets still don't see another cut till June when we'll have another Fed chair.” [21:57]
  • Savita Subramanian (BofA): Market breadth is improving; S&P 500 equal-weighted, small caps outperforming; sentiment has become “euphoric” for AI/tech. “Today the economy is booming, everything's fine. You want to be long stocks, crypto, and everything else out there…sentiment…has really done a big 180.” [27:23]

• Possible Outcomes:

  • If long rates rise (10-year back above 5%): “rates rising on the long end is most detrimental to these mega cap growth companies.” [29:16, Subramanian]
  • “We could still see room for…multiple expansion as long as the reasons are cyclical growth.” [29:13]

5. Other Earnings & Market Movers

Starbucks: Signs of Turnaround, Margin Questions

[39:57–42:50]

• Same-store sales up 4% globally and in the US, first such rise in two years; transaction growth returns.
• CEO Brian Nichols’ turnaround plan credited; 2026 EPS guide above consensus.
• Kate Rogers: “The company had mixed results… But the same store sales… up 4%. That's the second consecutive positive same store sales growth… changes are really starting to resonate with consumers now.” [41:06]
• Margins still under pressure, but “looking for tomorrow, hoping to see a longer-term outlook.” [42:50]

IBM: Hybrid Cloud & Infrastructure Resurgence

[32:06–33:59]

• Software outperformance offsets Red Hat softness. Strong demand in “sovereign infrastructure” (especially EU wary of US cloud dominance).
• Consulting business bottoming; quantum computer rollout by 2029 hinted.
• “Also this sovereign infrastructure demand, particularly in Europe, a lot of countries a little iffy about putting their data in a cloud owned by US Companies…” [32:06, John Fortt]
• Shares up 8%.

Market Highlights

• AT&T: Jumps on earnings beat and $10B buyback announcement
• LVMH: Falls despite beating sales estimates
• GE Vernova: Raises 2026 outlook, +3%
• ServiceNow: Tops estimates, raises full-year revenue guide

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Meta’s Relief Rally:
  "This is a growth company again...And this is a company that's getting the benefit of AI now along with the capex." – Tim Seymour [03:14]

• Microsoft’s Cloud Circularity:
  “That is circular at its finest. And it’s messy, Dan…Meta doesn’t have this. I think it’s very different. They go straight to the consumer and they’re showing the margin.” – Michael Kantopoulos [13:31]

• Tesla's Future Focus:
  “I think this stock, it’s not about valuation, it’s about the hope of the future. And I think the substance of how this technology is progressing is really making some remarkable improvements recently.” – Gene Munster [35:41]

• Rate Reality Check:
  “The Fed is sort of happy where it is…It's maybe a slightly more hawkish committee this year and I would take Powell at his word that we're waiting for the data to speak to us.” – Steve Liesman [23:27]

• Sentiment Shift:
  “Today the economy's booming, everything's fine. You want to be long stocks, crypto and everything else out there. So I feel like sentiment has really done a big 180.” – Savita Subramanian [27:23]

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Start Time (MM:SS) | |:-------------------------------------- |:----------------------:| | Meta Earnings Deep-Dive | 00:52 | | Microsoft Earnings/AI Analysis | 08:37 | | Tesla Earnings & Outlook | 13:57, 34:26 | | Federal Reserve Update & Analysis | 21:57 | | Starbucks Turnaround | 39:57 | | IBM Results & Cloud Trends | 32:06 | | Final Trades & Closing Thoughts | 45:27 |

Tone & Style

The panel maintains their trademark energetic, fast-paced Wall Street banter, with sharp opinions and candid takes. They mix accessible metaphors (“Sort of Damocles,” “all you can eat buffet” for AI) with technical market analysis, making the discussion engaging for retail and professional audiences alike.

Summary – Takeaways for Investors

• Mag 7 Divergence: While Meta surges on growth and AI, Microsoft is weighed down by Azure’s pace and partner concentration, and Tesla pivots away from core autos toward autonomy and AI features.
• CapEx Arms Race: High CapEx is back “in vogue” so long as it translates into margin and top-line growth—especially for AI and infrastructure.
• Fed’s Hawkish Hold: Don’t expect quick rate cuts; while the economy’s “solid,” the committee is patient and slightly more hawkish, supporting broadening market leadership and a cautious outlook for high-multiple tech.
• Starbucks, IBM, Others: Green shoots in non-tech sectors, especially where turnaround or diversification stories prevail.

In a market where “everything has just changed in the blink of an eye,” the actionable theme is to be selective—rewarding companies with visible earnings growth, robust CapEx deployment, and clear, differentiated AI strategies.

Missed the episode? This summary gives you all the substance, tone, and major insights—key for any investor digesting a crucial earnings season and Fed backdrop.