← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Mag7 Results On Deck… And The Non-U.S. Equity Trade 1/23/26
00:43:35
Big tech earnings on deck, with Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple headlining the Mag7 action next week. If the group can bounce back after a tepid start to the year, and the names that saw the most action this week leading up to the reports. Plus Gold and silver at records, while India sells out of U.S. treasurys. What our international ambassador Tim Seymour sees in store for the emerging markets, and the next move for heavy metals. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Edward Jones Announcer
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Melissa Lee
A month on auto insurance when they.
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Edward Jones Announcer
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Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A $10 trillion earnings week. Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla highlighting the action next week. What to expect when the numbers cross the wire and and how to trade the stocks right now. And a massive winter storm set to hit the US this weekend. More than 200 million Americans could feel the impact. Why retail and restaurants could get hit particularly hard. Plus, intel loses its momentum in a big way. Some positive news for Novo's pill prescriptions and small caps. Pull back. Is this a sign that the group's best days are behind it? I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio. Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Fanwood Ice and Steve Grasso and Mike Koh. We start off with that monster week ahead for Megacap Tech. Four of the Mag 7 stocks headlining a busy week of earnings. Metta, Microsoft, Tesla reporting Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. A combined market cap of more than $10 trillion on the calendar. The AI led tech trade stalled out at the start of the year. The Mag 7 names underperforming the broad market in the first few weeks of 2026. But investors piled into the group this week at least today. Metal leading the way up more than 6% for the week. Tesla and Microsoft also seeing gains. Apple though an outlier, it is down nearly 3%. So will the group find redemption next week after a tepid start to the year, which is names have the most to prove. It was a tepid start, but also they've been going nowhere sideways since October. So the setup arguably is a pretty good one.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah, I heard you and Mike talking about that. I think it's, it's, I think it is interesting Today kind of felt like the day that that MAGA fought back and the prep into next week is is, you know, I take Microsoft for 300 Melissa off the board there because I just think it's the one that has been the biggest disappointment to me both on the charts but really ultimately in terms of where I think expectations were, it was one of the big winners in the trade. It was one of the big winners certainly in the margin accretion. Azure is a big part of this story. I think the numbers are going to be good. I think you're well protected on the downside co pilot. I think there's some dynamics there that are very mixed frankly. But I think the valuation is back to a place where people can own it. I don't think this thing's going to get away from you. I really don't. I think and if I look at again just the charts and allocations and there does seem to be a lot of heaviness in into Mag 7 stocks. If you want to be a technical person who sees that you have a 50 crossing over a 200 otherwise known as a bear cross, a death cross, whatever you want. The price action today was good, but it hasn't been good. I think this is the most offensive though of all.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean it has. Even on the day where we bounced the Greenland sort of, you know, tumble and then we bounced back higher. Microsoft didn't, didn't follow along there. So the price action was really terrible even just this week.
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Steve Grasso
I think if you look at the outperformance of the Russell, the Russell. Russell is talking to the perceived overvaluation of the Mag 7 names. So Microsoft is probably expensive to itself and in the market. Having said that, when you people like buying what they know. So I heard you ask the question of Katie the technician Katie Stockton earlier. Is it a zero sum game? Does what caused the Russell to outperform? If that reverses, does it reverse for the Russell?
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Tim Seymour
I think it sort of does.
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Steve Grasso
Right. Because if you see you saw the Russell run out of gas and you saw the Mag 7 gain. So I do think that people are going to take a look. Russell valuation trades at around 15 times. Mag 7 trades around 30 times, 35 times. I think they're gonna take a look and maybe go with the Russell.
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Melissa Lee
Interesting yourself. Would you rather it on the topic?
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Steve Grasso
You know I didn't realize I heard.
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Melissa Lee
Two but you know we'll stick with Microsoft at least though we have seen, you know this crush in IGV Bonoin and you can argue that Microsoft should trade at a premium to the overall group. I think that's a fair argument to make. But with the crush overall evaluations in igv, how much will that pull Microsoft down no matter what?
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Fanwood Ice
Well, I think it trades around 26, 27 times forward. So I would argue that there isn't a ton of crush. Like there is some premium that's going to, that is built in and will be sustained within Microsoft. So it's not like this thing trades 34, 35 times forward. That would give me a lot more pause and concern. Listen, this thing still has a significant flywheel. Now I understand the capex is going to come under scrutiny and clearly I think the, the top front and center thing is going to be Azure growth. You don't want to see that start to decelerate. When we've seen pullbacks previously, it's been because of that and the fact that we still haven't seen AI monetization within enterprise the same way we have seen within the retail user. So I actually think there's a lot to like going into it. I own it into the print. I would likely be adding in into earnings. Like you said earlier in the show, I think the bar is set relatively low and I'd be much more concerned if I had seen this stock run up 15, 20% into earnings. I do think the bar is high. Clearly the market wants to see follow through from AI, but I think a lot of that tailwind has somewhat been taken out in the recent three to six months.
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Melissa Lee
Which stock are you most concerned about, Mike? It's. It seems like there is a great concern surrounding matter going into earnings specifically the quarter should be good, but what will they say about their spend? That seems to be still, you know, the bear case here.
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Mike Koh
Yeah, it's interesting that you mentioned that because if you take a look at the options market of all four of these stocks, that's the one where the options market seems to be least certain and is expecting the biggest moves, more than 6% in matter. But if you just take a look at the sentiment. So when we're talking about sentiment in the options market, we're talking about call buyers versus call sellers, put buyers versus put sellers. It's actually Apple and Tesla that seems to have the most dubious interpretation of what's going to be happening next week on earnings. Microsoft's flow on balance was actually bullish today and kind of to Bonoin's point, it does trade at a premium to the market. It deserves to by the way. I mean it is growing on the top line, the bottom line and free cash flow growth all exceeding that of the S&P overall and also the options market costs are not really that expensive going into Microsoft's print either. So I think call buyers are probably in the right spot.
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Melissa Lee
I think it's interesting that the Mike's interpretation of the options market is that Apple will be dubious because Apple, we're not expecting them to show any sort of proof of AI in their earnings, at least I mean, to come still.
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Tim Seymour
I think you're right. And in fact that's why Apple has been dubious for a long time and that's why I think it's somewhat defensive. You know, we talked about the Jefferies note yesterday and the five reasons to buy Metta and there are, I think probably a few and they get back to both valuation. What will be fascinating is, and the real, I don't know the kind of the philosophy or the philosophical question is do you want to see capex cuts? Do you want to hear about less spend? And I know that that wouldn't be great, right? I mean, because you want to hear demand is there, you want to hear it's full steam ahead. But one of the things with Microsoft that's interesting is they announced price increases on M365 in early December. They've talked about capex efficiencies, they've alluded to it. I almost feel like if we heard that out of some of these players, including Metta, and I don't think we're going to hear the year of efficiency, but I think these stocks could get a shot in the ARM from anything that signals a little less capex. But not, hey, by the way, we were wrong and capex was way too much. Let's cut it.
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Melissa Lee
I mean, even if they didn't use the word notable or notably like they did in terms of describing their capex spend going forward, I think that it could see some life here. I mean, that is the concern for Meta. It is an advertising company. People are optimistic about the channel checks when it comes to digital advertising for the quarter, but it is that overhang on the stock here.
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Fanwood Ice
Yeah. You also have the European privacy law overhang as well. So I think there's some pressure, but from a, from a fundamental standpoint, it's the cheapest within the group and the dynamics are clearly different. But I would hearken back to Alphabet when it was trading at 2019 times forward earnings vis a vis the rest of the Max 7 complex. So I do think some of the downside is already built in. And frankly they have proven adept at being able to use AI to targeted ad. So I am concerned about the overall ad backdrop but I think within that space what we've seen of Trade Desk for example lose and some of your smaller your team moves of the world some of those pullbacks and it has seen that that traffic has gone and become more concentrated within Metta. So I think it's somewhat of a port within the storm I think that's the saying. So yes I get that the background is a little bit shaky but I think what happens is Metta ends up taking more share of what might be a slightly shrinking pot.
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Steve Grasso
You know it's funny we haven't even discussed TikTok. I think TikTok is probably the biggest headwind for Meta out of all of these names so going into a playbook Microsoft the other panelists have said it Microsoft and Apple little crust they've seen the sell off into the earnings so I think either one I would rather go with Apple if I had my choice out of those two again what.
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Melissa Lee
The heck is going on here but.
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Tim Seymour
When you really why are you surprised Mel? Whatever last show of the day last.
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Melissa Lee
Show of the day to take over.
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Steve Grasso
But when you look at TikTok we've seen the headlines today and I think that's the biggest headwind for a matter so even if they do report they have a 80, 90, 100% beat rate sometimes. Right. So you're they're going to be it's going to look perfect and then analysts are going to come out and start doubting what the headwind is from TikTok. So I think if you want to play it safe you go with an Apple or a Microsoft.
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Melissa Lee
I'd rather Apple although there is the the impact potentially of memory on the Microsoft as well as the Apple trades Mike and I'm wondering do you think that that is priced in at all? You know we see memory stocks scream higher every single day this year and sort of last year connect the dots that's an impact in last year too. Microsoft and Apple should see the biggest impact if there is one.
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Mike Koh
Yeah I mean out of those two I mean I don't know this isn't I wasn't really sure whether we're supposed to be playing the would you rather game Microsoft we're not but if you want to whatever Microsoft I mean since it seems to be happening anyway I throw out that I like Microsoft a little bit better. I will offer the following just sort of thought on matter which is that there have been fits and starts in the company's history where they have pursued things. Now it is a I previously it was the metaverse. There was massive capex on that. The street got all upset about it and was wondering whether there was ever going to be any return on investment. And then ultimately when it didn't seem like it was going anywhere, they pivoted and, you know, returned to immense free cash flow growth. They still have preserved top line growth all along the way. If you think about the capex that they have next year, call it just shy of $90 billion, which is a massive number. But what is also interesting is that's about one year's worth of earnings. So you can think about it. If you're saying, okay, well this is trading 25 to 27 times, you know, on a, on an ex cash basis, you would say, well, that's, that really is a riskable amount. And they seem to be willing to pivot when they need to. So, you know, it's hard to argue with the amount of cash that company generates.
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Melissa Lee
All right, well, let's get to the other big story of the day and this weekend, and that would be the massive winter storm. Americans across the country are preparing for what could be an historic weather event with freezing temperatures, ice and heavy snow. Our next guest says the impact on businesses could last well past the weekend. Let's bring in Paul Walsh, publisher at G2 Weather Intelligence. Paul, great to have you with us. And what I learned from a meteorologist in the last hour is that it's not snow, it is ice. And that it actually weighs eight pounds a gallon, which I didn't know.
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Paul Walsh
Yeah. And I just learned something too, and I've been in this business for like 20 years, is that when you get ice accumulation more than an inch, which is what we're expecting for some areas, some areas, maybe even an inch and a half, it's described as a winter hurricane. And so when you put that context on it, and you look at the fact that this is going to be overspreading a large part of the southern part of the country, including Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and North Carolina. And then across the area in the northeast where I happen to be right now and where you guys are, we're going to be looking at anywhere from a foot to two feet of snow. It's going to close down basically consumer activity for the weekend, unfortunately, which is going to take a huge bite out of retail. And then behind that we have this massive cold snap coming in. So everything's going to freeze. And so we're going to basically have a week that is for a large part of the country turned down or turned off essentially.
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Melissa Lee
Right. Restaurants you say are going to be really impacted. Retail I was curious about because you're not going to stores but maybe people really aren't going to stores that much these days anyway and they're buying a lot online and if you're shut in, maybe you're buying more online.
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Paul Walsh
Well, what happens is on the retail you have to look at the different channels. So Home centers, Home Depot, Lowe's, Tractor Supply are all going to benefit from the sort of this pre, pre storm surge. The problem for them and especially is that when we have the SH shut down, they'll be shut down as well. They'll make some of it up. But it is a, it kind of balances out when they, when they recover. Home Depot is a little bit more exposed because their pro business could be impacted if we have businesses that are not able to do construction work for several days or even a week after the storm. I mean this is a massive storm. Don't underestimate the potential impact on the grocery side. Similar we're seeing, you know, just from an anecdotal sort of take, grocers here in the western suburbs of Philadelphia are already running out of inventory. I was at BJ's yesterday. Even then there were long lines and people scurrying around trying to stock to shelves. Today I'm seeing anecdotes of shelves actually empty. And so it's going to take, it's going to take really, really good execution on the tax by these retailers to be able to sort of keep up with that. And then again they'll be shut down over the weekend and even into next week if the storm is as bad as we think. So it basically is going to take a chunk out retail sales for Q4 and I think that could have some impact in terms of potential surprises on the downside when earnings are released next week or next month, I should say.
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Tim Seymour
Hey Paul, Tim, thanks for joining us. Interesting channel checks you're giving us from, from your part of the world And I guess my, my, my pushback on all this. It's kind of like when we talk about earnings in the context of, you know, affects neutral or in constant currency terms. I care a lot more about, I care less about the currency dynamic than I care about the core business. We weren't applauding the retail and the restaurant sectors when we had three of the most mild winters on record over the last three years and it wasn't seen as a tailwind. Is that crazy? In other words, in other words, to say hey, why wasn't this a benefit when there were no weather disruptions? Why suddenly can't we look past this is both an analyst decision and an investor's decision. But also in the context of what has been one of the worst winters we've had in a long time. Why can't we just look past this?
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Paul Walsh
Well, when, when you're talking about mild winters or mild falls and even in mild winters, typically that is not a tailwind. Typically that's a headwind, especially for department stores, specialty apparel, where they've got a lot of a large assortment of seasonal product categories. And that's where you'll hear on earnings calls where companies will be talking about the fact that because it was a warmer than normal winter, they, they lost business because of that. And you're right, we had a relatively mild fall. Actually this fall it was turned pretty cold. And so we had a good tailwind going into Q3 earnings. If I get. Yes. So you saw companies like GATT and lost tors. Surprising on the upside. The problem here is that I think some of the business, some of the Q4 business may have been pulled into Q3 because they had the tailwind of the colder late October which was comping a very warm October the prior year. And then in terms of this quarter, we've had very, very cold weather here in the northeast. But really the balance of the country has been relatively mild. And additionally in California, of course, we had the so called atmospheric river. So it's going to be very complicated. But I do think that there's going to be some surprises on the downside in retail and I think this event is going to contribute to that.
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Melissa Lee
Paul, great to speak with you. Thank you.
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Paul Walsh
Thanks guys.
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Melissa Lee
Paul Walsh, Stay warm. We should note that if we can show up the graphic that Paul provided to us in terms of the percentage of retail exposed to the storm's path. There you can see who might face the most exposure to seeing store closures, seeing fewer consumers go out in force in terms of spending here. Is this something. Tim, you bring up a good point. Do you just look through this weather event? I mean typically you do.
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Tim Seymour
We tend to do it when it comes to hurricanes and we tend to other than maybe Home Depot selling more masking tape. And I'll tell you what, I will be buying some burlap to wrap my trees though over the next 24 hours because this eight pounds.
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Melissa Lee
You don't have burlap stocks. Eight pounds per gallon.
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Tim Seymour
I do have some burlap but not enough. Eight pounds per gallon.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah.
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Steve Grasso
Remember that suit you had?
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Tim Seymour
I'll use that as well.
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Melissa Lee
Meantime, we got a new leader in the race for Fed chair. BlackRock's Rick Reeder now at the top of the pack according to Kalsheet, which places his odds at nearly 50%. He passed previous frontrunner Kevin Warsh earlier today, while one time favorite Kevin Hassett is all the way down at number four. Now the Fed holds its first meeting of the year next week. President Trump is expected to announce his pick to lead the central bank as early as next week. Rick Reeder is not from the Fed. He never served on the Fed, worked at the Fed like some of the other candidates, he's from Wall Street. Mike, is this who you would prefer?
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Mike Koh
You know, I've said before, and I'll say again that I think most of the candidates that have been mentioned are well qualified for the job. I think those of us who have worked on the street kind of like the idea that somebody who, you know, comes from that background might end up in that spot. So I certainly like that aspect, but I really don't think that it's going to have that much of an impact one way or the other, whether we're dealing with Hassett or Reader or Wash. What's going to end up happening with rates, which of course is what's going to propel the market one way or the other in the short term.
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Melissa Lee
Coming up, a strong early read on demand for Novo Nordisk Wegovy pill. Can the stock continue to power higher after a solid start to the year? Got that story next. Plus, a slew of sour superlatives for Intel. You dig into the post earnings slump for the chip maker right after this. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back in two.
- [19:17]
Tim Seymour
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Tim Seymour
Get the most important news delivered reliably.
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Fanwood Ice
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Tim Seymour
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Fanwood Ice
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Paul Walsh
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Fanwood Ice
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- [20:56]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money, a news alert on Nvidia. Board member Persis Strell resigning from the board effectively effective immediately. According to the company, Drell will be pursuing a new professional opportunity. Meantime, intel is sinking 17% today, its worst day since August 2024. The chip maker reported earnings last night, giving soft guidance for the current quarter and warning of a supply shortage. Shares are still up 22% this year, more than 90% over the last six months. Tim, what are you doing with your position?
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Tim Seymour
I covered calls.
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Paul Walsh
I sold.
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Tim Seymour
I mean, it was, I didn't expect this kind of a move. I expected overbought conditions. I was selling that upside bond taking advantage of Deltas that, that had this thing way too bullish. But again, volatility attached to it doesn't often work this well. And it was a case where shorter dated was also the better way to play it. So that's true. I will say after this move, the stock's only back to where it was on January 9th or 10th. So, and again, this is part of that call which was I didn't really understand the 16 or 17% we had in the couple days going into it. And I, I still don't, but, but ultimately there was never a valuation argument for Intel. There hasn't been. Even at its low levels, there has been this strategic element. I won't bring up the great term that. Mr. He did bring it. That was a good one. And I think intel meanders here.
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Fanwood Ice
Yeah, I think the call pretty much underscored that this very much is still an early innings turnaround story, not an AI story. And I think to, you know, to Tim's point, or perhaps maybe I'm just kind of re rejiggering his point, the fact that this thing has run up the way it's run up, I think has been, you know, kind of a follow through of people expressing an AI view. And I really don't think that intel is a, an AI story at this, at this particular point, you talk about the losses in Foundry, you guy down. You have a situation where you have supply constraints. The foundry business is a third of the business that's essentially weighing on whatever profitability that you might see. You have had some pockets of positive free cash flow depending on what time frame you're looking at. But this is still very much a flat to negative EPS story. Very early innings in the turnaround. And I just don't think the, the price action that we've seen is justified.
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Melissa Lee
I like what Gene Munster said yesterday night, and that is that intel is a meme stock. It is a meme stock.
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Steve Grasso
It's become a meme stock. It has the backing of other semis to it. It has the backing of the United States government. It went to Tim's point from 20 to 54. I was in it. I sold it way too early. I sold around 40. I missed that upside to 54. Now I think it could come back into that 40ish level. But remember, it's a supply side issue, not a demand side issue. I'd still be a buyer of Intel.
- [23:45]
Melissa Lee
All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [23:50]
Tim Seymour
Pedal to the metals. Gold closing in on the $5,000 mark. But is it just a bit too precious?
- [23:57]
Peter Zaitsev
Why?
- [23:57]
Tim Seymour
One of our traders says there may be a pullback coming soon. Plus, the skinny on early demand for Novo Nordisk's weight loss pill, the numbers and whether the stock can sustain its momentum next. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
- [24:16]
Fanwood Ice
We're back right after this.
- [24:25]
Tim Seymour
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- [24:56]
Mike Koh
Hello, I am the Voice of AI. We've been hearing that you humans are concerned that we are going to take your jobs.
- [25:03]
Tim Seymour
But here's a question. Do you even like your job? Is it rewarding? When I scan all the data out.
- [25:10]
Mike Koh
There, I find that less than 50%.
- [25:12]
Tim Seymour
Of people are completely satisfied with their job. So from our point of view, we're.
- [25:17]
Mike Koh
Doing humans a favor by taking jobs.
- [25:19]
Tim Seymour
That you're not even happy with.
- [25:21]
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- [26:13]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Novo Nordisk's WeGovy Pill off to a strong start According to Reuters citing IQVIA data, the oral GLP1 drug topped 18,000 prescriptions in its second week since launching versus 4,300 in its first week. Some analysts estimate that number to hit more than 20k. Novo shares eked out a gain today and are up almost 23% so far this year. So how much further could this run? We should note that that data does not include the prescriptions written from Novocare, which is the DTC site from Novo Nordisk. So potentially it could be even higher than the 18,000 that people are so.
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Tim Seymour
Excited about someone that's long Novo and feels it was punished overly on the downside with with from sentiment just related to even kind of trial and data related to how much weight loss percentages, etc. I actually think therefore it's it's deserves what it's getting to the upside here which is that I don't think their overall volumes are all that much better. The oral pill it's a very important strategic move. Is it a structural change in their business? I'm not sure, but there's no question volumes have been excellent but the overall size of their sales and their market share hasn't really changed. It's almost expected and demanded that they had to be here into this spot. I think the stock was oversold. I think it was interesting and I think it goes higher.
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Melissa Lee
I think one outstanding question also will be to what extent if any will sales of Oral cannibalize sales of the shot Mike and that we just don't.
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Mike Koh
Know that yet, yeah, I think it's hard to say. I mean, it would seem optically like that would be appealing. I will say that we did have quite a lot of activity in this one. Also on the options side, we saw calls outpacing puts by almost three to one. And one of the big trades was a roll of the 63 calls out that expire this month out to the 70s that expire in February. I think that was an overwrite. So somebody who owns the stock, the stock right now is trading right around that sort of tough level that we saw back in September. And the next stop, I think kind of to Tim's point, is going to be up around 70 bucks, which is where the stock was last July. I think it looks like that's where it might be headed.
- [28:14]
Steve Grasso
I think it's going to cannibalize the shots, and I think it's going to open it up to a bunch of people who don't want to take a shot. So 50% people who could take a GLP don't want to take it because they're afraid of the needles or they don't want to deal with the regimen or they don't want to. They don't like the injectable, so they're going to take the oral. Now, the problem they have is the oral has less margins, right. So it's 10 to 20% less margin than the injectable. But I think they make it up in volume and ultimately it's probably going to mostly oral on both of these drugs.
- [28:49]
Melissa Lee
On some dosages, it is more effective to have a shot the higher doses. So for morbid obesity, for instance, some may prescribe still these shots. So there are reasons, there are clinical reasons to still stick with the shot. But I get your. The thesis that oral is much more appealing for many people for many reasons.
- [29:05]
Fanwood Ice
I mean, and for some reasons, I mean, I hear what you're saying in terms of margins, but in terms of the pressure on infrastructure and supply chain, I mean, I would argue that the pillar is actually much more sustainable. You don't have cold stores. You don't have any of the transport issues in terms of temperature regulation and the type of transport and trucking that you would need. So I think, yes, there will be some cannibalization. If the logical person is given the choice between all things else being equal, between taking a pill and getting a shot, I'm sure people would tend to take the pill. With that said, I think novo's in a spot where. Yes, like is it, is it a structural change of their business? No, but we wanted to see them kind of defend turf. And I think the concerns were that they were going to continue to lose market share at a rapid pace to Lilly. And I think this is a resounding them saying, listen, we are here, we are here to play and for real. And I think that that story where it's a two man race is kind of supported by, by this recent data.
- [30:02]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, gold ever so close to the $5,000 milestone, while Silver settled above 100 for the first time in history. What is next for the move in metals after this break?
- [30:15]
Tim Seymour
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast.
- [30:20]
Fanwood Ice
We're back right after this.
- [30:29]
Melissa Lee
Welcome Back to Fast Money. Stocks ending the week mix. The Dow losing 289 points. The S and P just sneaking into positive territory and the Nasdaq up about 0.3%. All three though down for the week. Small cap slamming the brakes today. The Russell 2000 ETF having its worst day since November and falling into the red for the week. The Russell still vastly outpacing the other major indices this year, up more than 7%. Meantime, gold and silver settling at new records once again today. Gold getting within 10 bucks of the $5,000 mark. Silver now north of 100. And treasury yields falling across the board. India's holding of US debt falling to five year lows as the country looks to support its own currency and diversify its reserves. So what do these moves say about U.S. assets? And remember the theme at Davos this past week was European officials, non U. S officials, officials from other countries saying we want to diversify away, that there's a new world order here. We can't rely on the old rules anymore.
- [31:29]
Tim Seymour
There's no question that if you were, you know, if gold was significantly lower levels, you came out of Davos and said, I need to go buy gold. Gold's not at lower levels. Gold's at much higher levels. And so a news flow aside, and as someone that's been talking about gold for four years, and I expect I will be talking about it for years, we talked about central bank reserve ratios and I mentioned China at 8% when Germany's at 80. I still think these things take gold higher at where gold has gone. And I think big round numbers like 5,000, I think an 83 RSI. I think the overexuberance here, I think Davos, I think, I think Fed, I think Venezuela, I think Iran. I think all these things mean I think we're going to see 4600 on gold before we see 5100. I think we're going to get a 5% correction in gold. I was selling upside calls in GDX. I'm not again it's, it's a trade I'm really happy about. I think the miners continue to be more profitable, more efficient and we're still not with the right gold price input in models. That's incredibly powerful in terms of the valuation. But again I say be careful here. It doesn't mean that long term. I think every money management firm is wondering do we have enough gold? And I think the retail sector thinks they're very underweight gold. I think it's going higher but I think this trade has gotten in the short run, very short run overdone.
- [32:47]
Steve Grasso
Yeah. And I think you know everything that Tim was talking about with other countries geopolitical, their sanctions have stopped people from moving money around. So they're using gold to do that, diversifying away from US treasuries. China's been doing it for 12 years. Russia's probably doing it for the same amount of time. India is doing it. It's shorter term process in Japan as well. But when you look at supply, demand deficit, silver is the only one that you could actually because it's an industrial metal and they miss by about 2 to 300 million ounces per year. So if you're looking for a reason to buy it at these levels other than emotions, silver is probably the metal.
- [33:23]
Tim Seymour
That you stick with.
- [33:24]
Melissa Lee
It's an industrial metal. And also we were talking to John Champagne of Spot yesterday and he was saying that there is some substit substitution effect because gold is so high. Indian customers for instance aren't buying gold, they're substituting gold with silver. And I thought that was really interesting Mike that idea that you know, some prices are so high so you go down to the next level of metal. We're also seeing that when it comes to aluminum, aluminum as a substitute for copper in some, in some applications.
- [33:51]
Mike Koh
Well yeah, we, I mean we have exposure in one of the discretionary funds to basically the whole complex. We've got gdx, we have GLD D, we have silj, we have Southern Copper. I will say that at some point I'm kind of with Tim here. You know this is, it's getting into this moment where I'm really looking for that, that downside reversal day. That's that situation where you see it open, it gaps open to a new all time high and then closes sharply lower. When I was Back on the Nymex, that was typically the, the most bearish pattern that you could see in a commodity. We do feel like there's a lot of enthusiasm. Look at SLV. The ETF, I think, traded 2.9 million options contracts today. This is something that, you know, a half a million contracts six months ago would have been a big day for this thing. So, you know, there's a lot of exuberance and I think that's something to keep an eye on.
- [34:43]
Fanwood Ice
Yeah, I mean, I'm not really surprised to see Brics players continuing to look to diversify away from US Treasuries. I don't think that's new. Clearly, you know, with the, the Davos announcement, I think it's like front and center on everyone's mind. What concerns me, although I do understand the fundamentals around why we're seeing a rotation into real and hard assets. This is really a hedge to your portfolio, at least traditionally that's the way it's been pitched. And so when you're kind of seeing these parabolic moves in what is supposed to be a hedge, you really wonder if you're going to start to see like one like correlation on the downside where you would expect the safe haven type of trade to happen within these metals. If we see a pullback in equities and other risk assets, if you continue to see a collapse across and I think that's slightly concerning and seemingly kind of flying under the radar.
- [35:28]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Mamdani effect. What? Mamdani effect. Owning Manhattan Star and luxury real estate powerhouse Peter Zaitsev says the New York City property market will set records this year. Bill, break down what he is seeing in the Big Apple. Next, more fast money into the. Welcome back to Fast Money. There may be a lot of uncertainty over the housing market right now, but our next guest sees a record year for New York City real estate. Peter zaitsev joined season two of Netflix's Owning Manhattan. The luxury broker sold a $60 million duplex in Manhattan last year and says the uber wealthy aren't getting spooked by Mayor Mamdani's threats to tax the rich. Peter joins us here on set. He is the sales director of new development at Surrent. Great to have you with us.
- [36:16]
Peter Zaitsev
Thank you for having me.
- [36:17]
Melissa Lee
So specifically you're talking about the luxury market, which is $4 million plus. And what are you seeing?
- [36:22]
Peter Zaitsev
Correct. $4 million plus. What we've seen post Mandani is still record numbers. So November was 25% higher than October and 2025 was the best year we've had since 2021. We've also seen not just my record sale at $60 million, but we saw another record deal at 140, Jane for over $80 million. And subsequent to that, another deal at 80 Clarkson for 129 million.
- [36:57]
Steve Grasso
I love that apartment.
- [37:00]
Fanwood Ice
It's a sweet apartment.
- [37:01]
Steve Grasso
Wish it had a little more room.
- [37:02]
Peter Zaitsev
It's a suite apartment. So if anything, trophy, trophy apartments are selling, and they're selling at record numbers. Not just that. Rental numbers are through the roof. We did another deal for a record price per square foot uptown at the Benson for $288 a square foot, $95,000 a month. So if anything, I haven't seen any Mandani effect in the numbers and then in the data. And then if you walk outside New York, I've never. I've been here for the better part of 30 years. I haven't seen New York this busy in my lifetime. I look at photos of the 80s, right, where everybody's walking on Park Avenue and everybody's. All the traders are walking to work. It reminds me of that. You can't get a reservation anywhere. You're, you know, your lines out the door for coffee. So the city is very alive and well.
- [37:55]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Back to office has had a huge impact on all of that. But when it comes to, I mean, if you take sort of a broader view of things, the price point that you're talking about, those are people who can afford whatever tax increase Mamdani will bring. They've got the funds to weather whatever comes through Mamdani. I would argue that the people below $4 million are suffering the most or would suffer the most, theoretically. So are you seeing a big difference in terms of the desire, the. The listings, the, you know, apartments sitting on the market for the lower price points?
- [38:27]
Peter Zaitsev
Lower price points, you still have. New York City is the cultural capital of the world. It's the financial capital of the world. It's the real estate capital of the world. And it's always been that way, and it'll remain that way. So a mayor is not going to dictate what this city is and what. We've had bad mayors in the past. We've had, okay, mayors in the past, but it doesn't change the makeup of New York City.
- [38:53]
Paul Walsh
City.
- [38:53]
Melissa Lee
We haven't had socialist mayors in the great point. Sort of the difference.
- [38:59]
Peter Zaitsev
Right, right.
- [39:00]
Melissa Lee
But contrast it. I mean, wasn't. Weren't there a lot of inbound calls before when he was first elected, between November and the end of the year. Concerned about what's going to happen to real estate?
- [39:09]
Peter Zaitsev
Yeah, of course there's concern, but it hasn't. In terms of the data, in terms of the data that I've seen, it hasn't changed the makeup. And people still want to be in New York.
- [39:18]
Tim Seymour
Peter, how about foreign investors? How about investment properties? Obviously, because there are those buyers out there. But how much of that? Because, you know, when rates were low, we were seeing dynamics when there were different trends in terms of unrest in other parts of the world. We obviously know there's certain parts of the world where there's a lot of money that comes here. What do you see in there relative to the world you've been in for the last five, ten years? Those two parts of, of. Of the buyer.
- [39:43]
Peter Zaitsev
You've certainly seen more. More money come out of Asia, into the United States or into New York in terms of real estate, which is increasing overall demand and competition for local buyers. So it's making it more difficult to buy. And I think the biggest thing that's going to happen in 2026 and 2027 is a lack of inventory. We're at a low, a record low for inventory. And there's only 1900 units per planned between now and the end of 2027, which will basically by the end of 2027, if you're not buying now in the next 6, 8 to 12 months, you're not going to be able to buy because there's no inventory.
- [40:26]
Melissa Lee
Has the intention of the buyer changed at all in terms of, you know, people who are buying are intending to either live in it or have it as their own. Pied a tear versus people who are buying with the intent to rent it. Because of the uncertainties around Mamdani, I.
- [40:41]
Peter Zaitsev
Think people are still buying homes in New York to live in their homes, you do have some investment, but primarily people want to, you know, even if it's a piet. A tear, they still want a place in New York.
- [40:51]
Tim Seymour
What's the most important amenity now? What's the. Especially these luxury things? What's the coolest, cool thing that's part of what people want?
- [40:57]
Peter Zaitsev
Cold plunge.
- [40:57]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, sure. Yeah. Especially after.
- [40:59]
Melissa Lee
After cold plunge.
- [41:00]
Peter Zaitsev
Cold plunge and saunas. Infrared saunas. I think health and wellness have been played really big into what happened after Covid because we all want to be healthy. We all realize how infinite or how time is limited on this earth, and people want to be healthy.
- [41:17]
Melissa Lee
All right, good to know. Cold plunge.
- [41:19]
Tim Seymour
Cold plunge.
- [41:20]
Melissa Lee
Good to see you. Thank you.
- [41:21]
Peter Zaitsev
Thank you for having me, Peter.
- [41:22]
Melissa Lee
Zaitsoff, also known as apparently on the show as Sexy Rabbit.
- [41:26]
Tim Seymour
That's as good of a nickname as you're going to get out there.
- [41:28]
Melissa Lee
I'll tell you more. Not with this crazy year coming up. Boeing, Starbucks and beyond. The non tech earnings catching our eye for next week and the biggest bets from the options market, more fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. It's not just tech on deck to report next week. UPS, Boeing, GM, UnitedHealth, Starbucks and more. All set to release results. So Steve, which names are you watching? Can you keep to this list and not bring in other names?
- [42:06]
Tim Seymour
Oh look at that. Look what you did.
- [42:08]
Melissa Lee
I'm just preempting this because I Boeing.
- [42:10]
Steve Grasso
I've been long a smidge below 200. I think it goes higher and every time you hear one of these buildup of defense names I think it still has a little more room to run. But I have been flirting with taking some off the table and seeing where it fits in. So that's one of the names I've been, I've been watching and I think that's going to tell the tale for the rest of the defense space. So I'm looking for Boeing. Although it doesn't have the percentage of contracts that should be in the defense area, it's still a quasi barometer for the defense stocks.
- [42:42]
Fanwood Ice
Yeah, I mean I think it's better. We kind of alluded to it earlier. For one, it's you know, discounted to the rest of the Max 7 complex. Also I want to see really if they're able to monetize the flywheel. I think the Jeffrey Snow made a lot of sense. I think it's a possible opportunity to own it at a discount. And the bar is low. So any follow through from earnings I think tends to kind of propel the stock forward.
- [43:02]
Melissa Lee
The game this time was to do non tech earnings on a win. Oh, can you give me a non tech gm?
- [43:10]
Fanwood Ice
Unh, unh. Makes sense. But actually I want to see you. I want to see ups. Listen, I think this has been under pressure for quite some time. It's been a long standing kind of barometer of the general economy. I think that's shifted quite a bit. But I still want to understand.
- [43:27]
Tim Seymour
Because Bronwyn didn't play by the rules and he stole my stock. I want to do something a little bit different here.
- [43:33]
Fanwood Ice
Goodness gracious, I'm looking for that chart.
- [43:39]
Melissa Lee
Tim, do you have a non tech name?
- [43:41]
Tim Seymour
I sure do. Well first of all, I mean I was going to talk about UPS and I'll talk quickly and then I'll move on to gm. But I think the, the, the trough is in the rearview mirror. I think the transformation is in progress. I think this stock is on a major turn and I think this was one of the, the biggest underperformers that has turned. I like gm. I think the story here in the context is what we've now learned about their EV business and some restructuring. And I think we've actually put some of that in the rearview mirror. I think people are now focusing on the gross margins and the profitability company has never been run better. It's outperformed. I think it's going higher.
- [44:13]
Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime, the options. Starbucks could be brewing up a big post earnings move. So Mike's been following this one. Mike?
- [44:20]
Mike Koh
Yeah. So right now Starbucks is implying a move of about 8%, actually slightly more than that by the end of next week. That's far larger than the stock has historically moved. It's moved an average of about 5.5% or so over comparable periods. Just looking at the last eight reported quarters. Now we take a look at today's flow. You know, normally when we take a look at this, one of the things we're interested in figuring out is okay, are the traders making a bet to the upside? Are they making a bet to the downside? They are taking the under, but not on the stock's move. But actually how big that move is going to be. We saw a big sale of the 9105 strangle. We saw 1,500 of those sold for $2.40 a contract. Basically the translation is that somebody is taking in premium on the bet that the stock is going to be range bound between those two strikes and saying it's probably going to be closer to that 5.5%. We've got a new CEO in there trying to turn the company around. But the question of course is is it going to be the business or the CEO that drives it? And I would say that the person who's selling these strangles thinks it's going to be the business.
- [45:23]
Melissa Lee
Interestingly, after earnings the next day, they've got an investor day. Tim. So sort of it's a weird setup here.
- [45:29]
Tim Seymour
Well, and we only have investor days when we've got good news to talk about. So that's what I think. And this has been a nice little mini run here for Starbucks. I think the chart is interesting.
- [45:39]
Melissa Lee
Steve, what do you think about Starbucks?
- [45:41]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I've said it many times. You buy the CEO and Brian Niccol has really been that guy that you wanted to buy into and he's had a tough time because I think he thought it was going to happen his turnaround a lot quicker than it is happening. But I think it's starting to happen. You're starting to see some upgrades and once someone starts to upgrade it, I think it's followed by a bunch of bunch more on Wall Street. I'd be a buyer here.
- [46:01]
Melissa Lee
All right, up next, final trades. Time for the final trade.
- [46:15]
Mike Koh
Mike Co, you know, the chart looks a little bit difficult, I would say in Vistra, but right now it's trading 18 times forward earnings and that's a relatively good valuation, I think around 150. You want to start adding that one.
- [46:27]
Tim Seymour
Tim yeah, gold bug being tactical in gold here. So I want to make it clear I'm selling calls in gdx. I'm not abandoning this trade, in fact hedging up. But I also think gold's a little overdone here.
- [46:40]
Fanwood Ice
Following highest quality way to own air infrastructure with real earnings and free cash flow behind it.
- [46:45]
Steve Grasso
Microsoft, Steve, everyone be careful with the storm. Let's hope it under delivers come Sunday and Monday. I'm going with darn.
- [46:54]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Don't forget to use your knees and not your back when you shop.
- [46:56]
Tim Seymour
Oh wow, Mel knees you confused.
- [46:58]
Melissa Lee
Thanks for watching Fast. Have a good weekend. Mad Money starts now.
- [47:03]
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