Podcast Summary: CNBC’s "Fast Money" – “Making Sense of Friday’s Action and What’s Next for Tesla”

Date: January 2, 2026
Host: Brian Sullivan (filling in for Melissa Lee)
Guests/Panelists: Karen Feinerman, Bonawyn Eison, Mike Khouw, Stu Kaiser (Citi Head of Equity Trading Strategy), Steve Liesman, Christina Partsinevelos, Phil LeBeau, Stephen Gengaro (Stifel Tesla Analyst)

Episode Overview

In the first "Fast Money" of 2026, the roundtable dives into the market’s mixed kickoff to the year, explores the psychological and structural factors driving early January moves, and debates whether things like Tesla’s delivery miss, the upcoming Federal Reserve leadership change, or shifting economic/tax policies actually change investment theses. The episode also covers Baidu’s AI chip IPO, reactions to Apple’s valuation, and the latest in furniture retail on tariff relief and housing. Throughout, the traders maintain their trademark mix of irreverence, practicality, and skepticism, always searching for actionable insight.

Market Kickoff: What Does the First Trading Day Tell Us?

[01:02]–[11:56]

Key Points

• Mixed Market Action: Dow and S&P up, Nasdaq flat, small caps strong (+1%).
• AI-Related Stocks Lead: Nvidia, Micron, ASML, CoreWeave higher; energy names also strong.
• Volume Low, No Major Takeaways: Most panelists downplay significance of day-one action after a holiday.

Insightful Perspectives

• Karen Feinerman: “Just because the year has turned into a new number, I’m not going to redo my portfolio. I don’t know what’s changed really until I see something else...” ([03:14])
• Bonawyn Eison: “Just because you turn the page on a calendar does not mean...there’s like some massive structural shift.” ([04:24])
• Mike Khouw: Notes low volatility (VIX at 14.5), tight option spreads: “Investors are still quite sanguine and generally speaking, that’s a good environment for stocks.” ([06:03])
• Stu Kaiser (Citi): New year gives PMs more risk tolerance; expects more creative risk-taking among laggards/small caps, especially with potential domestic stimulus (“the big beautiful bill”) ahead. ([07:33])

Memorable Moment

• "Honey Badger Market": Brian Sullivan quips: “Yeah, it’s like the honey badger market, and it doesn’t care. See what? It’s a family show.” ([04:02])

The Calendar Flip & Flows: Does January Matter?

[09:22]–[11:56]

Panel Discussion

• Beginning of Year Flows: Traditionally, rotation out of winners into laggards happens post-tax season. Bonus capital provides some incremental support—but not necessarily predictive of full-year trends.
• Short-Lived Rotations: Early-year momentum trades (e.g., “dogs of the Dow”) are often fleeting.
• Tax Policy & Refunds: Early February tax data—possibly larger refunds—could support small caps, discretionary, and cyclicals.

Notable Quote

• Stu Kaiser: “The move in small cap and the move in regional banks is encouraging...with the big beautiful bill, who benefits the most? Small cap and regional banks.” ([07:33])

Fed Chair Succession: Does It Matter for Portfolios?

[11:56]–[20:20]

Segment Breakdown

• Fed’s Future Post-Powell: Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in May; speculation over whether he’ll remain as governor, who will succeed (Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Rick Rieder).
• Political Risks: If Trump appointees gain majority, potential for ultra-low rates and pressure on the Fed’s independence.
• Panel Consensus: Current leading Fed candidates are credible; no significant changes to investment theses expected based on chair selection.

Key Quotes

• Karen Feinerman: “I feel like whoever it is is going to have the similar agenda...I think in any case, short term rates go lower and the 10 year is still going to do whatever the 10 year will do without regard to that.” ([16:02])
• Bonawyn Eison: “We’ve made such a circus about this...If the next chair is going to be seen as bending to political will, I’m probably going to get a little bit more long commodities within the portfolio...” ([16:23])
• Mike Khouw: “The bond market has already ignored the person who’s sitting there right now...If you’re interested in what rates are going to do, follow the two year and that’s probably going to be your best guide for now.” ([18:30], [19:22])

Tax Refunds and Domestic Stimulus: Small Cap Tailwind?

[20:20]–[21:44]

• Potential 2026 Refund Boost: The average tax refund could rise by $1,000, a significant “stimulus.”
• Market Implication: Positivity for discretionary, travel/leisure, lower-income retail, materials, and small caps.

Quote

• Stu Kaiser: “The average tax refund over the last 15 years or so has been about $2,850...could be $1,000 higher. That is a massive increase...and people are definitely putting trades on that would benefit.” ([20:28])

Baidu’s AI Chip IPO & China Tech's AI Ambitions

[23:26]–[26:37]

Summary

• Baidu Spikes (+15%): Announced plans to spin off AI chip unit (Kunlunxin) via Hong Kong IPO.
• Strategic Context: Chinese tech firms developing domestic alternatives to Nvidia, partly to hedge against US export controls—but can’t fully replace Nvidia yet.
• Sector Read-Through: Alibaba, Tencent, and others seen as “next in line” for similar spinoffs.

Notable Soundbite

• Christina Partsinevelos: “Chinese tech giants really need Nvidia chips today to compete in AI, but they’re still building domestic alternatives as a hedge...” ([25:10])

Market Reset: Sector Rotation, Energy, and Acronym Wars

[27:44]–[31:52]

• Energy Stocks: Top day for sector laggards—SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes up.
• EV Slowdown/Conventional Energy: As EV momentum weakens without subsidies, conventional gasoline demand remains strong.
• California Gasoline Supply Issues: Upcoming refinery closures will impact supply; regional implications.

Fun Panel Banter

• Panelists joke about their 2025 “acronym strategies” (BOOM: Broadcom, Oxy, Oracle, Mastercard, etc.) and the annual ritual of naming new ones—lighthearted, competitive energy.

Tesla: Losing the EV Crown, Focus Shifts to AI and Robo-Taxis

[32:45]–[40:04]

Main Topics

• Tesla Q4 Delivery Miss: 418,227 (vs. expected 422,000); annual deliveries down 8.5% year-over-year.
• BYD Surpasses Tesla: BYD delivered 2.26M EVs in 2025, becoming world’s #1.
• Stock Resilience: Investors focus on future AI/robotaxi/humanoid robot developments, not near-term auto sales.
• Panel Skepticism: Valuation hard to justify based on autos alone; much rides on unproven tech and potential.

Key Quotes

• Stephen Gengaro (Stifel): “If you’re buying Tesla because they sell cars, you’re buying the wrong company...you’re investing...because of autonomy and robo-taxi...that ultimately is what is the value creator.” ([35:57])
• Mike Khouw: “The valuation...is tough to get behind. [GM’s] autonomous vehicles...quite good...I’d rather own General Motors here at these valuations.” ([39:16])

Apple: Is the Valuation Justified?

[41:04]–[42:27]

• Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform: Analyst says stock’s 32–33x forward P/E already prices in all good news (install base, services growth, possible iPhone supercycle).
• Potential Upside?: If Apple can show a stronger AI strategy, that could be the next tailwind.

Analysis

• Bonawyn Eison: “The one pushback...if they do have an AI strategy, I do think that is where the upside comes from...” ([41:04])
• Mike Khouw: “With probably S&P-like growth...is this where you want to deploy capital?” ([42:05])

Furniture & Tariffs: Relief Rally for Retailers

[42:31]–[44:35]

• Stocks Like RH, Wayfair Up: Rally on news that President Trump delayed additional tariffs on furniture and kitchen cabinets.
• Panel Caution: This is “bad news getting less bad,” not an all-clear.
• Housing Link: The real catalyst for furniture sales is lower 10-year yields to help housing.

Quotes

• Bonawyn Eison: “This is just kind of like bad news getting less bad.” ([43:13])
• Karen Feinerman: “The best thing that happened for any of these furniture companies is a 10 year that is much lower...” ([43:35])
• Stu Kaiser: “If the Supreme Court were to rule tariffs illegal...very good for these stocks...but we’d fade that trade quick.” ([44:09])

Final Trades

[44:50]–[45:32]

• Mike Khouw: General Motors – “Valuation is very attractive, I’d pick it up around the 50 day.”
• Stu Kaiser: US Banks – “Chasing domestic stimulus, plus a deregulatory tailwind.”
• Bonawyn Eison: Caterpillar – “Cyclicals have some edge; best of both worlds here.”
• Karen Feinerman: Lululemon – “Turnaround story, attractive multiple and balance sheet.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Karen Feinerman: “Makes it a little harder. Things got more expensive, but I’m sticking with what I got.” ([03:49])
• Brian Sullivan: “If the market perceives the next Fed chair as simply somebody doing the bidding of the President...the bond market may revolt.” ([17:45])
• Phil LeBeau: “Robo-taxi growth, cybercab, and robotics/AI—those three—even though there are not clear metrics, that’s the optimism fueling the Tesla trade right now.” ([33:49])

Recap & Tone

The roundtable remained grounded and a bit skeptical on the significance of day-one of trading, and consistently pointed viewers toward structural, fundamental drivers—policy, tech development, and economic conditions—rather than calendar-driven narrative shifts. There was clear skepticism of unsubstantiated tech optimism (especially around Tesla and humanoid robotics), but also awareness of how sentiment and flows can keep risk appetite alive early in the year.

Overall Tone:
Pragmatic, sometimes irreverent, always focused on actionable takeaways for active investors. Panelists openly challenge hype, question valuations, and highlight both technical and fundamental rationales for their positions. The episode bubbles with trader banter, occasional self-deprecation, and a dash of market folklore.

Listen for These Memorable Moments

• [03:09] — “Why not? One day? That’s what we do. We take small data points and wildly exaggerate.” (Panel humor about market meaning)
• [15:50] — “Do I care [about next Fed chair]? I feel like whoever it is is going to have the similar agenda...” (Karen F.)
• [35:57] — “If you’re buying Tesla because they sell cars, you’re buying the wrong company...” (Stephen Gengaro)
• [41:04] — “If [Apple] does have an AI strategy that is where the upside comes...” (Bonawyn E.)

For more, visit: http://fastmoney.cnbc.com
(Note: Timestamps above refer to the podcast audio’s running clock.)