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CNBC's "Fast Money"
Making Sense of Friday’s Action and What’s Next for Tesla 1/2/25
00:43:40
Major markets kicked off the year well off their session highs, but what stage does the action set for the rest of the new year? We’ll debate. Plus Tesla deliveries drop and it’s lost its spot at the top of the EV race. But will robotaxis and robots help it regain its footing? Fast Money Disclaimer
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B
Live from the NASDAQ market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. The 2026 kickoff, a mixed bag. The Dow and S and P closing higher. Nasdaq down a touch. But the upside markets all lower much of the day until some buyers rolled in. Does today give you any clues as to the rest of the year? Tesla taking a hit, deliver drop. But with all the talk of robo taxis and even robots, do investors even care? Take a closer look. Plus, a big bounce for Baidu. One new analyst downgrading. Apple and Trump giving some furniture stocks a nice pop. We're in the market for a new sofa. It's good news. We'll explain it. Happy New Year. Happy Friday, everybody. I am Brian Sullivan coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On your desk tonight, Karen Feineman, Von Winson, Mike Koh and Stu Kaiser. He is the head of equity trading strategy at Citi. Stu, welcome. All right, we begin with what else? The markets and your money. Because while big tech did not perform, small caps did. Maybe on some economic optimism heading into this new year, the small cap stocks popping more than 1%, the Nasdaq basically flat. But even as some mega cap tech stocks have wobbled a bit the last few sessions, there were some positive signs. For example, Nvidia up more than a percent today, along with upside reversals in AI focused stocks like SanDisk, Core Weave, Micron, ASML. They were not alone. Companies associated with AI power generation also making a move. Names like G Vernova, Constellation Energy, Vistra, all higher. So Obviously, folks, we got a lot to digest and dissect. So Karen Feynman, kick it off. I know today, a Friday coming off a massive holiday, a lot of people still off the desk. I get it. So is there any, anything we could read or take away from the action.
- [03:07]
D
Today and extrapolate into the future?
- [03:09]
B
Why not One day? That's what we do. We take small data points and wildly exaggerate.
- [03:14]
D
Right. I would say no. We probably have another 250 trading days left for the year. So we're not.
- [03:20]
B
Who's counting?
- [03:21]
D
I just to throw it out there. Maybe it's close. So. No, but it is interesting to see. I mean, we know the year ended with the story sort of not. Not at its peak, let's say. And so today there was a little life there. TSM kind of got us going and so some nice traction. And I don't, I don't, I wouldn't extrapolate too much into it, but I also feel like just because the year has turned into a new number, I'm not going to redo my portfolio. I don't know what's changed really until I see something else that makes me think, all right, something's different. Then I'm going to stick with what I've got and I like what I have. It's nice to have a good year behind you. Makes it a little harder. Things got more expensive, but I'm sticking with what I got.
- [04:02]
B
Yeah, it's like the honey badger market bottle and it doesn't care. See what? It's a family show.
- [04:08]
E
I didn't know where we were getting.
- [04:10]
B
No, that's what I do. It doesn't care that the calendar turned to Karen's point. It's January 2nd, same as December 31st. But you know what? I also don't care if volumes are low. Stocks go up. They go up. What's your general feeling? And read heading into the new year.
- [04:25]
E
Yeah, I mean, I'll take a gander at extrapolating and hyperbole, I guess. And I think it's Karen's point. I'm just going to put it in a loudspeaker that just because you turn the page on a calendar does not mean that now all of a sudden there's like some massive structural shift. I understand that there's a bit of jostling at the end of calendar year 2025 rotation away from some of the high flyers and I into some of the more value oriented sector on the back of speculation that the big beautiful bill will kind of Spur along perhaps retail, both investment and consumption. So I think there are some of those things at play on the margin that you will continue to see. But AI data center, build out power grid usage, these things aren't going away just because we're now in 2026 and I think some of the same playbook. Now Karen made a point earlier. Expecting the same returns that we saw in 2025 is likely a bit of a fool's errand just because we've run up so much. But to completely essentially reverse course on what has gotten you through 2025 is probably not the playbook for 2026.
- [05:29]
B
No. And to be fair, and what's also interesting, Mike co, is that you're the options guy. You look at say the VIX and maybe we could throw a one year chart of the VIX up. The Vix is at 14 and a half. It's not quite the lowest in 12 months. Slightly lower for a couple of days in the middle of August of 2025. But we are coming into the new year with, I don't want to say no fear in the market, but certainly option spreads pretty tight. How do you read this change in calendar and where we are right now?
- [06:03]
F
Yeah, well it's interesting. I mean we, if we look at vix, you know, like a five day moving average, for example, for the first time in a year actually it did dip below 14 at the tail end of December. That was a level that it didn't reach in the same period last year when volatility was also quite low. Look, when volatility is low as measured by the vix, that's basically how much premium, premium is baked into the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. So how much volatility options markets are anticipating. What this tells you is that investors are still quite sanguine and generally speaking that's a good environment for, for stocks. So you know, I think that kind of, to Bonoin's point, it doesn't make a huge difference, just that the calendar switched over in terms of the fundamental backdrop for stocks. There are some things though that can impact it. So for example, you will at the tail end of one year potentially have some tax positioning and you may have some repositioning right after the calendar flips over as people are sort of readjusting their portfolios to accommodate that. We also have had a very retail driven market and some people may be getting bonuses. They may deploy some of that capital into the equity markets. So I think those things are also potentially positive.
- [07:16]
B
Stuart Kaiser you should be positive. And by the way, you should be smiling because you work for Citigroup and I've seen that stock. So on a personal maybe, hopefully you had a very, very good year. What do you see for at least maybe not the full year, but the beginning of the new year? What kind of positioning and strategy do you guys have at Citigroup?
- [07:33]
G
Look, I think if there's one thing that maybe does change with the calendar year flipping its portfolio managers have a little bit more risk tolerance and a little bit more risk appetite than they would have at the end of last year. You know, there's a lot of folks we talked to in November and December saying that 2025 was such a difficult year. If you were up, the last thing you wanted to do was stub your toe or make a mistake, you know, kind of going into year end. So I would expect, you know, PMs on the institutional side to maybe re. Engage a little bit more via, you know, through risk than they, than they were kind of late last year. If you're going to take any positive signal, I think away from today, and I agree with Karen, it's, it's, you have to really squint to, you know, get any signals out of this. I do think, you know, the move in small cap and the move in regional banks is encouraging because, you know, to Baltimore's point, there is a focus on the big beautiful bill that is a domestic stimulus bill, basically, and who's going to benefit the most from that. It is smaller cap and regional banks.
- [08:25]
B
I love this idea. And if shorter Stu Kaiser, I don't want to misquote you to you. The idea being that fund managers, maybe like a Karen Feinerman, they did so well in 25, you get a little cautious or, I don't want to say cowardly, but you want to protect your gains and then maybe now you can. You've got more room to play at the beginning of a new year.
- [08:47]
G
Yeah, I think that's right. You have a longer investment time frame, number one. And number two, like, given what happened last year, if you managed to fight your way through that year, you know, with a decent return, you know, the last thing you wanted to do was take any chances. So our kind of view into year end was you would rally. But it's what had worked in the beginning of the year was what's going to work into year end because we didn't expect people to get one all that creative. A lot of PMs I talked to did not want to hear our creative Ideas. Right. It was much more a discussion of hey, what's going on with this trade? Hey, what's going on with retail trading? It wasn't, hey, do you have any new idea I haven't heard of yet? And I'm going to put that on for the last two or three weeks of the trading year.
- [09:23]
D
So let me ask you a question. In terms of flow of funds into the market, is that generally even all year where you see a higher amount of money coming in at the beginning of the year? You said the bonus part, but I mean more broadly than that, is there something that would make the beginning of the year just structurally a time where more money has to go to work and therefore stock prices would likely go up?
- [09:41]
G
Honestly, I think the biggest flow you see at the beginning of the year tends to be a rotation out of winters and into laggards. Right. You're kind of out of winter tax.
- [09:49]
D
Selling after the new year. Okay.
- [09:51]
G
And you know what, you know, the dogs of the Dow type situation, I've got to buy what's lagged. Then you get tax day. I, so I agree. I think, you know, bonus season matters. I think tax day matters and I'm sure we'll get into it later. The big beautiful bill and the potential tax refund is, is an enormous story. So I think, look, I think you have a little bit extra risk tolerance. I do think you have people that are willing to play around in some of the laggards and then when we do get bonuses, you know, later this month, early February. Yeah, that might, that might help a little bit incrementally.
- [10:16]
E
Stu, in your opinion, is that a reason to kind of look at the trends early in the year and try to extrapolate what might happen over the course of the year? Or is that more reason for you to perhaps fade some of the things that are happening earlier on the year because they tend to be one off, as you mentioned, you're willing to take a little bit more risk on the dogs of the Dow type of trade because yes, you have much more time and you have law of large numbers. But at the same time there could be a recency bias to that that may not necessarily play out because I doubt that most people are going to elect to buy losers and add to losing positions over the course of the year. So how should we be looking at that trade?
- [10:56]
G
Yeah, if you look, if you think of like the momentum rotation or something like that, that tends to be quite short lived. It's the first two or three weeks of the year and then it kind of comes down another way to think about that might be Europe. The last few years, typically you've had Europe rally really strong in January and then once the initial people buy that, you know, that trend kind of fade. So I wouldn't necessarily think of the early year being all that indicative of what happens the full year unless there's a meaningful change. Your investment thesis, like you as you mentioned, the calendar year changes. It doesn't change your base case.
- [11:25]
B
So but, but okay, I know we got to get Steve Lisbon, but I will say that what does change on January 1st are the tax laws.
- [11:31]
G
Yes.
- [11:32]
B
And that may influence the way people invest because small caps benefit from more people getting tax refunds. So maybe something actually does change on.
- [11:39]
G
The calendar this year. Look, you've had a meaningful change in the underlying policy backdrop and if you believe that that is, you know, has legs to it. Yeah, we do think there is a trade there and we'll get into it later. I mean, we believe people are going to take a shot at this cyclical trade early this year. The going to be very sensitive to tax data in early February. But we do think it's a real thing.
- [11:57]
B
Okay. As you noted, we will get to that in just a bit. But let's move on because one of the big questions among many for the market this year, what will the Federal Reserve look like after Chair Jerome Powell steps down and of course, who will succeed him as chair of the Fed? Now, Kalshee still putting the betting odds on Kevin Hassett, but it's getting a lot closer because the other Kevin, Kevin Warsh is at 35%. Christopher Wall rolling into 13%. Rick Reeder at 4%. Steve Lees, but I would put you on that board. But right now we're happy that you're with us. So you join us. What do we know about the 2026 Fed? Because the calendar is changing and so will the chair of the Fed.
- [12:39]
H
Yes, but there's another question. What happens to the existing chair of the Fed? Brian? Fed Chair Jay Powell has been pointedly mum about the question of whether he will stay on the board after his term as chair ends in May. So it could get interesting. Both Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, they left quietly with time remaining on their governor terms. Powell, he could stay on the board for two more years as a governor if he wants to, but he's declined to say what he'll do, raising the question about whether he's even he's actually considering staying at stake, the makeup of the rate setting federal open Market Committee and the powerful Board of Governors. And whether President Trump will have a majority of appointees on the board, including the new chair, of course, one of the Kevins or somebody else, a relatively new grandfather. Powell's thought by Fed observers to be more than ready for civilian life after 13 years of the Fed, including eight as chair. Much of that tenure coming with unprecedented and of course withering criticism from President Trump. But Powell also holds a deep loyalty to the institution and holds likely concerned about its fate under the challenge posed to its independence by the president. Three Trump appointees currently sit on the seven member board, Governors Waller, Bowman and Myron. Either Lisa Cook's removal by the Supreme Court or Powell's departure that would hand Trump a majority that could vote for ultra low rates almost immediately or even Fire District Bank. Presidents who don't vote to cut rates. There's no guarantee, of course, they would vote along with the president on those issues. For Powell, staying could be labeled a political move by the president's supporters. Leaving could clear the way for unfettered control by the president. Most Fed observers we talked to, Brian, think that Powell is most likely to leave, though none would rule out him staying for perhaps even a short time.
- [14:27]
B
I've got to imagine, Steve, that Mr. Jerome Powell could make a sizable pile of money were he to go to the private sector.
- [14:38]
H
I don't think that's outside of the realm of possibility. He could also spend a lot of time playing guitar, which we know he's an avid guitar player, likes to go to concerts. But you know, you leave behind and you look and you see what could happen to the Fed, and maybe he has some colleagues or other people in the business urging him to stay out of loyalty to the institution. If you could have made a difference and stop it from becoming a problem or stopping a problem, then maybe you think about staying for a bit.
- [15:06]
D
Steve, it's Karen. So clarify something for me. If he were to say I'm not going to stay, who decides to fill how that seat is filled, does he have a say in that at all?
- [15:17]
H
No, he does not. I mean, he might in a different world be asked by the administration for who could, who would be a good Fed governor. But I'm not sure. I'm pretty sure that this administration and that Fed chair are not talking about those sorts of things.
- [15:34]
B
Guitar and a pile of money both sound kind of good to me. Steve Lisbon, you can have both. You can have everything. Steve Lisbon, thank you very much. Have a happy New Year and a good weekend. Steve. All right, let's go around the horn now, maybe take the temp of the traders. Karen, do you care who the next Fed chair is?
- [15:51]
D
Do I care? I feel like whoever it is is going to have the similar agenda to whoever else.
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B
Would you change your, let me ask more directly. Would you change your investing strategy or portfolio and get ready Bono and same questions coming to you.
- [16:03]
D
Yes.
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B
Based on who gets nominated and I would assume confirmed.
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D
No, because I think in any case short term rates go lower and the 10 year is still going to do whatever the 10 year will do without regard to that.
- [16:17]
E
So you asked me this question earlier in a different way and I refused.
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B
I'm going to keep asking.
- [16:24]
E
No, that's fine. You know, I kind of grown a little bit fatigued on the politicization of this. Like I'm essentially here tasked with coming up with investment theses and giving our viewers what I think my opinions are based on like academic, economic or financial data. And I just felt like we've made such a circus about this. I didn't really want to get sucked into this. I think this question is framed in a way where actually there is some investment outcome to be handicapped. I think, listen, I think Hassett actually is very capable. I do think that he opens himself up to actually being influenced very heavily by the administration and I think that is an issue and I think that it's being reflected in commodity prices, your silver and your gold coming full circle back to that conversation. So that would likely be how I were to play that were I to think that despite economic readings, despite inflation readings, that we're going to continue to try to press down on the front end of the curve. I'm probably going to get a little bit more long commodities within the portfolio and I'm probably also fading longer term yields because I think that it is going to be inflationary. But I think that is going to be somewhat balanced by the fact that you're likely going to see strains on GDP if we run this economy too hot right now and allow inflation to get out of bounds and are unable to bring that back in line.
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B
I love Mike, I love bottom one staking because and I'm not going to speak for the entire bond market, but I talk to people in the bond market and they say kind of the same thing and Stu obviously jump in as well. But Mike, if the market perceives the next Fed chair as simply somebody doing the bidding of the President and not what is best for the bond market, the economy, inflation or jobs, it may revolt. Right? We had Guy Adami on Wednesday night say thought that the 10 year old could go to four and a half. Today on Power Lunch, Rick Santelli said 475 is possible. You get my point. Is there a possibility that the Fed nominee is too political and therefore the bond market ignores that person?
- [18:31]
F
Well, I would say that the bond market has already ignored the person who's sitting there right now because what we did in fact see in the most recent cut scenario as the two year has dipped, the ten year has held in there and actually gone a little bit higher. So we've seen the yield curve steepen. That I think is to be expected. I mean also people should kind of throw away the Zerp Area 10 era, 10 years and sort of dismiss that from your mind. We're not going back there. So I think that if you imagine that we're going to live in a, in a world where the ten year is going to float around three and a half to five and a half. I mean above five and a half, I have a feeling that you actually need some intervention simply because it creates other big problems. But yeah, I mean I'm not that concerned about who's going to get the get the job. I think if you're interested in what rates are going to do, follow the two year and that's probably going to be your best guide for now.
- [19:22]
B
All right Stu, so I saw you nodding on the Fed thing. I know you've got a tax thesis, I want to get to that. But, but as head of equity strategy for Citigroup, do you, do you guys have a point of view on the Fed chair? Are you just going to roll with whomever is nominated and theoretically confirmed?
- [19:38]
G
Look, I don't think you touch your question earlier. It wouldn't change our investment framework or thesis assuming it's one of the top two or three people that have been bandied about already. So if it' Ambassador Warshire reader is not going to change our base case. And the bottom line is if the market was really worried about one or one of those people being appointed, you wouldn't have rate cut odds below 50% for the next three meetings. You wouldn't have the 30 year yield where it is, you wouldn't have bond volatility where it is. The market is sort of telling you that those three candidates are, are credible enough that it's not going to create a big risk premium in the bond market. And I would expect that to continue. So we don't have a favorite amongst the three. But I think as long as you're choosing from that pool of people, the market is already telling you that they're not particularly concerned with those three candidates.
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B
Okay, so quickly then on the other side, we talked about a little bit, there are real tax implications to the economy and thus the market.
- [20:28]
G
Yeah, 100%. I think, you know, our economists are a little bit more conservative about this. But I can tell you investors we talk to are very positive on the amount of stimulus that's going to hit the economy in the first half of 2026, particularly from the tax refunds. And you know, just to give you a quick number, the average tax refund over the last 15 years or so has been about 2,850 bucks. There's discussion it could be $1,000 higher. So that is a massive increase in the size of tax refunds you might get. And people are definitely putting trades on that would benefit from trades on where.
- [21:01]
B
Small caps, because people spend that extra thousand bucks on average. Goes to the earnings and bottom line of some of these companies we don't talk a lot about.
- [21:09]
G
Yeah, I think it's two categories. One would be your more discretionary spending category. You're dying away from home, your travel and leisure, your lower income retail stocks. And the second would be, I think more what you're talking about is your traditional cyclicals, which might be a little under owned. And I'd put the material sector, I'd put banks and I'd put potentially small cap in that category. So it depends who you talk to. But people want to have, you know, under the umbrella of a cyclical trade on. And it's just a question of do I go after the consumer at a time when the unemployment rate is rising or do I play it a little more close to the vest and just go with traditional cyclicals? So I have that exposure on Russell.
- [21:44]
B
2000 was up 1% today. Small. They always do these head fakes though. So we'll see what happens ultimately. All right, coming up, Tesla turning over its title as the world's largest EV maker. But should you, the investor, even care about cars at this point?
- [22:00]
I
Point.
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B
But ahead of that, Baidu ripping higher, what it might mean for other big China tech names. Hit that and more. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money live on a Friday. Back in two minutes. You're watching Fast Money here on cnbc. We'll be right back. Comcast business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking.
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Confident that you could do something that.
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Hadn'T been done before?
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C
I have no fear of failure.
- [23:00]
A
Trailblazing women, Changing the game One of.
- [23:03]
B
My favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs.
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C
Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [23:16]
A
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:26]
B
All right, welcome or welcome back. Baidu surging 15% and here's an RBI for you that is Baidu's best day since 2022. Baidu is going to spin off its AI semiconductor business. Christina Parts here now with more on that.
- [23:41]
C
Christina well thank you Brian. Baidu, like you said, is spinning off its specifically its AI chip unit called Kunlung Chin and filing for a Hong Kong ipo, part of just a wave of Chinese chip companies going public. Baidu owns roughly 59% of Kung Lunching and uses the chips in data centers running also its Ernie AI models. The company still relies heavily on Nvidia for AI computing power, but it also lets Baidu see a mix of self developed chips alongside Nvidia hardware. That's important, the fact that they can work together. This also file follows Shanghai beer in technology's 82% jump in Shanghai today, debuting in its IPO. The playbook though is relatively consistent. Chinese tech giants really need Nvidia chips to today to compete in AI, but they're still building domestic alternatives as a hedge against export controls. We know with the 20 being blocked and then not blocked and now the H200, Beijing isn't just betting on one company to replace Nvidia. Instead you have Kunlung Chin working alongside Huawei, Ascend Capricorn Alibaba's chip units to build a collective ecosystem which eventually in their eyes would push American chip makers out. Analysts say these domestic chips still can't fully replace Nvidia given of course China's constraints in advanced manufacturing, especially when it comes to the lithography machines. But the IPO wave really just shows investors are betting on the long term potential as Beijing pours so much money into their semiconductor space.
- [25:11]
B
I'm not going to lie, I can't do that to the audience. I love them too much. I had no idea Baidu was Even in the semiconductor business.
- [25:17]
C
Well, Alibaba too, has its own chip to. Yeah, they compete, but it would be Baba, then Baidu, and then you have like 10 cent buying and they're all involved.
- [25:24]
D
Right. So that BABA was up huge today.
- [25:27]
B
You know, on this news, because it's.
- [25:30]
C
Seen as like just further strength in the entire ecosystem. Yeah.
- [25:33]
D
Right. So what would be the timing of this? And obviously people are looking, all right, Baba, this is a great thing. You're going to end up. You should end up doing the same thing.
- [25:40]
C
Yeah. For the IPO or the actual chip?
- [25:42]
D
No, to. To ipo, the chip business.
- [25:45]
C
It's. From what I was told, it's within the next 20, like, year, but that I can't confirm. Firm 100% because it's still not finalized. Right. They would have to go through regulatory hurdles. And Baidu was very specific in saying this may not actually go through.
- [25:57]
D
Is this to raise money or just to give evaluation?
- [26:00]
C
It's to raise money and show that the. How valuable the chip business itself on its own is. And it makes me think, like, why, you know, like the argument, why doesn't AWS separate too, and its entire business? But yeah, it's. Clearly there's a lot of demand.
- [26:13]
B
But it'd be different than Amazon because to your point, if Baidu wants to show the value by cutting it off, why doesn't Amazon just do the same thing or Google do the same thing with their TPU business and just maybe they will.
- [26:24]
C
Well, the online business for AWS is just. Amazon is so integrated with AWB that perhaps it wouldn't be beneficial to separate that.
- [26:32]
B
Christina Parson elbows on the Baidu story. Best day in over three years. Christina, thank you.
- [26:38]
C
Thanks, folks.
- [26:39]
B
There's a lot more Fast Money coming. Here's what's ahead. Tesla in reverse, losing its crown as.
- [26:47]
F
The world's biggest EV maker. What a massive delivery drop and hot.
- [26:50]
B
Competition means for a company as it turns its focus to humanoid robots.
- [26:54]
F
Next.
- [26:55]
B
Plus Raymond James taking a bite out of Apple.
- [26:57]
F
We'll dive into the analyst's valuation concerns for the tech titan. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square.
- [27:05]
B
We're back right after this. What made you confident that you could.
- [27:13]
C
Do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure.
- [27:17]
A
Trailblazing women, changing the game.
- [27:20]
B
One of my favorite pieces of advice.
- [27:22]
C
Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you Just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [27:33]
A
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.
- [27:44]
B
It's exactly 5:30 in the east Coast. Seems like a good time to do a market reset. All right. Stocks mixed to kick off the year. The Dow was up just over 300 points, about six tenths of 1%. The S&P about 2:10. The NASDAQ.
- [27:57]
H
We're going to.
- [27:58]
G
Let's be generous, New Year's, right Karen?
- [28:00]
B
We'll call that flat. Okay, three 100 of 1% that we're going to call that flat because we're in a good mood. It's the new year. It's Friday. Energy leading the market today. One of the last year's sector laggards leading the way today. You got gains from Karen's favorite slb, Halliburton Baker Hughes that did well as part of your card.
- [28:19]
D
It's too late to help the. Yeah, the acronym for 20.
- [28:21]
B
Why? Because the acronym was 2025.
- [28:24]
D
Yeah.
- [28:24]
B
By the way, when do you guys roll out the new acronyms?
- [28:26]
D
This week, I think.
- [28:28]
B
And the rules have changed.
- [28:30]
D
Well, I don't agree with that. So, I mean, maybe some people might.
- [28:35]
H
Think the rules change.
- [28:36]
F
I'm just.
- [28:37]
B
I don't even know. I love it. I can't wait to hear what these new rules are and what the new acronyms are. Meantime, Bitcoin jumping back toward 90,000 bucks. It looks to rebound from what was pretty lousy of a finish to 2025. The Bitcoin is still up like 7 billion percent. Used to be worth like half a penny. Goldman Sachs setting a fresh record close. Goldman Sachs just printing money. Mike Co up 60% in the past year. Jeff, thoughts on Goldman. Do you have thoughts on energy? Maybe see all the above.
- [29:12]
F
Well, on the energy front, first of all, as far as Karen's acronym is concerned, I'm pretty sure she, she crushed it in 2025. I've sort of been keeping track of that all throughout the year. The final results will be announced. But she didn't need any boost from, from energy as far as I can tell. But you know what does need a boost from energy is of course just the fact that we're seeing globally that demand continues to increase. You know, conventional fuels are going to continue to be an important part of that. The bloom is a little bit off the rose. You were talking earlier about the decline in Tesla sales. So the EV trade without the benefit of federal subsidies. I think that you're going to see Sort of more conventional gasoline demand, you know, that combined with other forms of energy demand. So I kind of like this. As you know, if we're going to pick a dog, this might be a good one to go after.
- [30:04]
B
You know, by the way, Mike, co based out there in California. I'm sure you know this, but I'm just going to tell the audience because why not? I'm. They can't stop me now. We're live. They're shutting down two refineries in California. I actually don't know where you're going to get your gasoline, Mike Coe.
- [30:17]
F
I'm going to have to drive all the way to Nevada to get it and buy myself a big trailer to tow it back. I guess it's. It's not a pretty picture. We do, we do have an electric vehicle as well and a plug for it at home. But it is a bit annoying because both of those refineries that you reference were doing about 150,000 barrels a day. And California has a proprietary formulation for gasoline along with a number of other states that follow the California Air Resource Board. So this is not something that's only. Yeah, exactly. This is not just going to affect California. It's going to affect other regional states that use the same gasoline formulation. Although they, I expect, are going to, you know, have a little bit of flexibility on that.
- [30:58]
B
Yeah, well, you probably know this. I'm just going to tell the audience and audience, don't tell anybody. It'll be our secret. They're probably going to have to pipeline in refined gasoline, maybe from as far away as St. Louis. But I'll do more on that story coming up on on cnbc. I like the car, you like the carb.
- [31:14]
D
It would have been better had I going to. The past tense really cost me. Actually, it was the energy and the Dell which would have really done so.
- [31:21]
B
Bottom, what was your acronym?
- [31:23]
E
Boom.
- [31:25]
B
And what is the boom? B O O M. Yes.
- [31:29]
E
Well, Broadcom. So I think that's maybe one of the reasons they changed one of the rules because that should technically be an A.
- [31:35]
B
But if I. Yeah, because it's abgo.
- [31:38]
E
Yes. One of us was complaining about that. So, yeah, Boom. Oxy, Oracle and MasterCard.
- [31:45]
B
All right, well, when is. I look forward to this.
- [31:47]
E
Oracle kind of head faked me there for a second.
- [31:49]
D
Which one?
- [31:51]
E
Oracle.
- [31:51]
D
Oh, Oracle.
- [31:52]
E
It boomed and then.
- [31:53]
I
Busted.
- [31:53]
B
I was gonna say. You were. You must have been leading for a long time this year, right?
- [31:58]
E
Can't win them all.
- [31:59]
B
Well, we'll see how it comes out.
- [32:00]
G
I.
- [32:00]
B
Look, I can't wait. I actually don't know.
- [32:02]
G
So.
- [32:02]
B
All right, coming up, we're gonna stay in the car story, the EV story. Deliveries at Tesla coming up a little bit short. And that actually puts a new company right at the tippy top of the EV race. We'll give the numbers and the road ahead for those Danes. Coming up.
- [32:20]
G
Missed a moment of fast.
- [32:21]
B
Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. Tesla reporting a big drop in deliveries in the fourth quarter. And with that, Tesla ceding a spot at the top of the EV race, Tesla Stock falling almost 3% today. Phil LeBeau has more. Philippines.
- [32:46]
I
And Brian, when you look at the numbers for the fourth quarter, we knew that they were not going to be great. But the company on Wednesday said, hey, we've talked to analysts. We think It'll be about 422,000 vehicles that were delivered. That's the estimate from them. Not sure why they put that out. The number came in at 4:18,227, down almost 16% compared to the third quarter for 2025, a second straight year where deliveries globally declined 1.63 million, down 8.5%. There was some good news when it comes to energy deployments. This has been a part of this Tesla story hasn't got as much attention or hasn't received as much attention as it should over the last couple of years. It was up 48.7% in 2025. It's expected to grow again in 2026. If you're wondering why shares of Tesla did not sell off on this news, deliveries is not what people are focused on right now. Three things. Robo taxi growth, how does that develop here in the first and second quarter? Cybercab in the middle of this year is expected to begin meaningful production. And then you've got robotics and AI, those three. Even though there are not clear metrics that have been set out there for investors to say, oh yeah, they definitely hit that metric. That's the optimism that is fueling the Tesla trade right now in terms of EV deliveries. BYD has replaced Tesla as the world's largest EV company in terms of annual deliveries to delivering $2.26 billion in 2025. Finally, take a look at shares of General Motors. The reason we're showing you GM, it reports its Q4 results on Monday. Q4 results in terms of sales, we'll get their earnings later in January. Great, great year. If you were a GM investor. And Brian, I'm not sure many people expected that back in January of last.
- [34:29]
B
Year, I got to imagine Mary Barra is pretty happy out there in Detroit. Phil, you bet. All right, Very boat on Tesla. Thank you very much. Let's bring in now Steeple's Stephen Gingara. Stephen has a $500 price target on Tesla shares. Implies about a 16% gain. Stephen, thank you for joining us here. By the way, happy New Year. Happy Friday. No, it's late. What's the thesis to the upside given the delivery numbers that Philippeau just talked about?
- [34:56]
J
Thanks for having me. And Happy New Year to you. The real upside, and he mentioned it briefly, was when we look at Tesla, obviously car deliveries matter, but the real driver of the stock we believe over the next 12 to 18 months is the progress they make on full self driving and then ultimately the Robotaxi initiative. We think you'll see Data points throughout 2026 that are positive on those fronts, which we believe will help drive the stock higher.
- [35:24]
B
Yeah, 508. I don't want to, I don't want to shortchange you on the 8. $508 on that price target. You know, Tesla has a market cap that is greater than all the US market, you know, car companies combined. You throw in some European companies, combine them, it's still bigger. The robotaxi robots, all the stuff that you just talked about and more. What if somebody says, stephen, this market cap doesn't make sense. Right. What's, what's your basic answer to just that really easy question?
- [35:57]
J
We hear that a lot. Right. And what I tell people is if you're, if you're buying Tesla because they sell cars, you're buying the wrong company. Right. You're, you're investing in Tesla right now because of the optimism, enthusiasm around autonomy over time and their positioning in the autonomous driving world on their full self driving initiative. And then ultimately the robo taxi side is really why you buy the stock. There, there is some risk to what they're doing and we've talked a lot about this in our notes. Their approach, which is basically a fully camera based system with, with AI to drive their full self driving, you know, there's risk to whether they can actually do this completely unsupervised without, without lidar in the cars. But, but that is the, that is the proposition that Tesla has set forth and that ultimately is what is the value creator for the company.
- [36:51]
D
Steven, it's Karen. I got to push a little harder on this. So 508, you get there somehow mathematically something. So if you could break out what the big parts are, you have something for robots which is a little further in the future, obviously. How do you think about the value of that? The value of Robo taxi, autonomous driving. What do you. You have to use something to sort of, you know, create this valuation.
- [37:25]
B
Well, I'm glad it was everybody else. I thought, okay, the hearing goes mid-50s. This is what happens. But actually we just. Stephen, if you're out there, we lost your audio, but thank you very much for coming on. It's a fair question. You're not going to answer your own.
- [37:40]
G
Question, but because I don't know how.
- [37:41]
D
You get there, I don't understand what. And will you discount it back at what, what risk? What, what, you know.
- [37:47]
B
Well, still you're here, so you're the new Stephen. Hi. I think. And you have to dive into Tesla. You're not an analyst on Tesla. I get it. But I would got to imagine there is a lot of, on this company, a lot of, lot of hope, optimism in big tech. That's it. Robots, robo taxis, look at me. Stuff that doesn't happen yet.
- [38:08]
G
Look, I think there's a lot of optimism about these themes across the street. I mean, the number of incomes we get about, you know, global robotics exposure exposure, global drone exposure. And I think the tricky part about those two trades is I can identify companies that do it, but it tends to be a very, very, very small part of their overall business and their overall revenue. So to Karen's point, you have to extrapolate this stuff, this stuff out in a very significant way because A, it's hard to identify and B, it's actually a relatively small sliver of the business. And see, frankly, in the US it's very hard to find this exposure. So it wouldn't surprise me if Tesla, for instance, is getting the benefit of being a US company with US liquidity. And I don't need to go to Japan and buy a small Japanese robotics company that I don't understand as much. I could put my faith in, you know, the, the Elon Musk, you know, private firm, effectively.
- [38:54]
B
Yeah. And you know, Mike, you said you're an EV owner. You know that I was an EV owner. I've subsequently changed that position. But. And I'm a native Californian and you got that beautiful flag with the bear. And I always argued every time I go out to see you in your area, they should just replace the bear in the California state flag with a Tesla 3 Series because Tesla's are everywhere where you live. You got a hot take on Tesla?
- [39:17]
F
Well, they should have replaced probably with the Model Y actually because I think that one outsells the Model 3 where I dated myself. Yes, but I mean to your point, actually the Tesla's were the number one selling car out here, outpacing any other. But you know, the valuation, wow. Is it, is it tough to get behind? And this is even harder for me when you consider that General Motors, they've rolled up Cruise, they still are operating their autonomous unit in San Jose and Super Cruise and Cruise, the autonomous vehicles here in San Francisco were actually quite good. I'm a big fan of full self driving. I've used it. My wife, not so much, she doesn't really like taking her hand off the wheel. But I think, you know, the technology is definitely proving itself. But I'd rather own General Motors here at these valuations.
- [40:04]
B
Rather own gm. I like it. Mike Koh, thank you very much. All right, coming up we're going to switch our talk on tech to Apple because you got one analyst who thinks that maybe Apple, good company but a little rich for the valuation. The Apple discussion next on Fast Money. Your call of the day is on Apple. Raymond James resuming coverage of Apple with a market perform rating, basically a hold. Apple had been an outperform, basically a buy before coverage was suspended and they imported a new analyst as new analysts writing that Apple's valuation already reflects an improving fundamental story limiting near term upside on the stock bottle and just throwing it out. There it is a new analyst on Apple. It's not the same analyst changing their view. What's your take on the call?
- [41:04]
E
Listen, I think it's thoughtful, I think it makes a lot of sense. Essentially you've got the service business, that's a machine that's really the largest annual compounder and CAGR grower there. You've got the large install base but essentially that the valuation at 32 or 33 times forward is fully reflective of all, all of these things. And you've got the i17 type of cycle or super cycle upgrade cycle that's being priced in. So I do think that all that is reflected the one pushback that I would have is that if they do have an AI strategy I do think that is where the upside comes from And I feel like the same way that all those positives are priced into the multiple. The fact that they don't have that is also. Sorry. The fact that there is an absence of AI is also reflective of the price and I do think that is the possible tailwind to the stock.
- [41:53]
B
Although Mike, they do have the new. If you upgrade the new software, you get this Apple intelligence. Not really sure what that is or what it does. Sell my phone now. That's not really the strategy Bono is talking about though, is it?
- [42:06]
F
No, I mean, look, I'm actually kind of surprised with the top line growth that we've seen in Apple. It's done actually better than I thought that it might have. You know, the question though that he's posing and it's, and it's the right one to pose is that at 30 times forward earnings with probably S and P like growth both top and bottom line, maybe a little bit better on the bottom line.
- [42:27]
B
Yeah.
- [42:27]
F
You know, is this where you want to deploy your capital market perform?
- [42:32]
B
All right, coming up, a tariff relief rally in sofas, Retailers and furniture names like RH Wayfair and even home goods retailer Williams Sonoma seeing big gains today. It was a relief after President Trump delayed a 30% tariff hike on upholstered furniture and a 50% hike on kitchen cabinets for the year. There's still a tariff on these names. Botouin. But the market liked the fact that there won't be a second layer on this.
- [43:13]
E
Yeah, I think this, if anything, this is just kind of like bad news getting less bad.
- [43:18]
B
Less bad. Yeah.
- [43:19]
E
Look at a name like RH over the last, what is it, 252 trading days, Karen, something like that. It's been pretty brutal. So I think whatever negative news is priced in and I think us not going from 25 to 30% tariffs or higher is an incremental positive.
- [43:36]
D
I agree with that. I think the best thing that happened for any of these furniture companies is a 10 year that is much lower. Do something for the housing market. That's when you buy furniture. That's what they got to hope for.
- [43:46]
B
Well, Stu, what happens though if 10 years go higher? Does that kill the consumer trade?
- [43:50]
G
I mean, from our perspective at this point, if 10 years are going higher, it's probably because growth is positively surprising. So I wouldn't be that concerned about it, I would say on the tariff story, look, we have a huge Supreme Court case coming up early next year. Our view is if the administration were to lose that, it's going to be very good for these stocks, consumer durables, etc.
- [44:09]
B
So if the Supreme Court comes out and rules that tariffs are illegal, Trump said he's going to try to throw something on. But if we just get that headline, you think that consumer, the consumer sector has a maybe short lived but a.
- [44:22]
G
Pop, Particularly consumer durables. Yes, and definitely short lived. We would fade that trade pretty quick because our D.C. folks think he's going to find other ways to get tariffs in place. So I think any of these positive or less negative tariff headlines, you kind of want to fade them.
- [44:35]
B
Well, they also might get a giant refund check. All right, up next, your final trades. First, final trade of the new year. Mike Coe, you get the honor to kick it off.
- [44:51]
F
Well, General Motors has had a heck of a run since mid October and it might be a little overbought here, but the valuation is very attractive and I'd pick it up around the 50 day.
- [44:59]
G
Stu Kaiser, I'll go with US banks. I think you're going to have investors chasing this domestic stimulus. You have a nice deregulatory kind of tailwind behind you. So to start the year, we'll go U.S. banks.
- [45:08]
B
Finally, I'm going to go with Caterpillar.
- [45:10]
E
This is kind of where the old industry or your cyclical names kind of have this little air edge to them. So I think you get the best of both, best of both worlds here.
- [45:19]
G
Karen.
- [45:20]
D
Yeah, I'm going to go with Lulu. Going to be a turnaround story, I think, for this year, but it's coming off. We haven't seen a multiple like this or balance sheet like this in a really long time. So Lulu, I also want to thank you, Brian, for filling.
- [45:32]
G
You're very welcome.
- [45:33]
B
Thank you all, folks. Thank you for watching Mad Starts Right now.
- [45:39]
A
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer what made you.
- [46:11]
C
Confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure.
- [46:17]
A
Trailblazing women, changing the game One of.
- [46:20]
B
My favorite pieces of advice.
- [46:21]
C
Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
- [46:33]
A
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.