CNBC "Fast Money" Episode Summary:

Market Momentum Still Alive… And Energy’s Next Move in Q4
Airdate: October 2, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Julie Beal, Mike Khouw
Featured Guests: Megan Horneman (Verdance), Phil LeBeau, Halima Croft (RBC), Emily Wilkins, Eamon Jabers

Overview

On this episode of "Fast Money," the panel dives deep into the persistence of market momentum, sector-specific rallies (notably in semiconductors, quantum, and crypto), the outlook for Q4 given record-high indices, and the risks of crowding into "momentum" trades. The team discusses energy's potential rebound, the significance of new federal policy moves, and major corporate news including Alibaba, FICO, and Boeing. Key themes are FOMO in digital assets, skepticism on extended tech valuations, the impact of Fed policy, and geopolitical wrangling over energy and government stakes in private industry.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Momentum and Sector Rallies

• Momentum Sectors Take Center Stage:

  • Despite overall market quietness, sectors like semiconductors, quantum, and crypto broke out.
  • Notable movers: Nvidia, Micron, LAM Research, KLA (semis), Rigetti Computing, D-Wave (quantum), Robinhood, Coinbase (crypto).
  • “Semi stocks ripping higher, the SMH ETF on pace for its fifth straight week of gains…” — Melissa Lee (01:03)

• Retail & IPO Action:

  • New IPOs like Circle had outsized days, echoing the speculative runs of past tech bubbles.

• Panel Reactions:

  • Guy Adami noted the surprising resilience despite potential headwinds, crediting momentum and late-in-the-year "performance chase."

    • “Valuations be damned. You know, I'm surprised at how strong the market was… but nothing should surprise me at this point.” — Guy Adami (02:37)

  • Mike Khouw drew parallels to 2020/2021, not just the '90s tech bubble, and flagged “FOMO in anything digital,” especially with the historic OpenAI transaction.

  • Dan Nathan highlighted the “FOMO” digital chase and the psychology feeding it, referencing OpenAI’s $500B valuation:

    • “Feels like FOMO in anything digital… a $500 billion market cap on OpenAI... feels a lot like 2020 and 2021.” — Dan Nathan (04:20)

• Critical Risks:

  • Julie Beal voiced concern about investment crowding into “non-earners” and the frothiness that presents.
    • “People are really chasing after a lot of companies that don't have the same quality as the mega Magnificent Seven… people are just assuming if it has the AI it's going to be quality.” — Julie Beal (07:06)

2. Fed Policy, Valuations & Year-End Allocation

• Rates vs. Momentum:

  • Debate over whether to chase record highs or lock in a 4% CD for six months reflected broader concerns about valuations and risk.

• Panel Positions:

  • Julie Beal, Tim Seymour, and Megan Horneman cautioned about lofty valuations.

    • “These tech names… trading at 90% premium, their multiples versus the historical average. This just simply isn't sustainable.” — Tim Seymour (11:09)

  • Counterpoints from Dan Nathan and Mike Khouw emphasized policy tailwinds and money moving off the sidelines.

    • “Weaker dollar, lower oil, lower inflation, money on the sidelines… a Fed that's accommodating… I’m taking the money and running into the rounded out.” — Dan Nathan (10:01)

• Guest Insight:

  • Megan Horneman (Verdance) flagged dangerous complacency and suggested a defensive stance, favoring small/mid-caps over stretched tech.
    • “Make sure you're in balance... We still think, don't forget the value side of the market… Even though I'm negative on the market here in the short term, I'm negative on the large cap growth.” — Megan Horneman (13:18)

3. Earnings Season & Financials

• Banks Lagging:

  • Banks, the typical earnings season bellwether, underperformed and may be flagging economic weakness.

• Rotation Dynamics:

  • Dan Nathan sees a massive amount of money market assets likely to migrate into stocks as rates drop, fueling Q4 equities.

4. Tesla: Record Deliveries, Stock Weakness

• Q3 Delivery Surprise:

  • Tesla delivered nearly 500,000 vehicles, beating expectations, but consensus for the year is still below 2024’s tally.
    • “Almost 500,000 vehicles were delivered last quarter… nobody is predicting them getting back to last year…” — Phil LeBeau (16:21)

• Stock Down Despite Good News:

  • Guy Adami called it a classic “sell the news” event, suspecting technical support at $360.
    • “This is a classic sell the news…” — Guy Adami (18:38)

• Panel Skepticism:

  • Concerns cited about Q4 demand, pricing pressure, and the need for new product catalysts beyond car deliveries.

5. US Government Cuts to Green Energy Funding

• White House Moves:
  • Cuts to $8B+ of previously-awarded federal funding will impact over a dozen public companies, with politics at the center.
    • “This funding that they need to restore it… at this point, there are a lot of question marks as to what it's going to take to reopen the government.” — Emily Wilkins (22:18)

6. Alibaba and Chinese Tech

• BABA Breakout:

  • Alibaba led a surge in China tech stocks after stabilization in China’s housing market and bullish notes from Wall Street.
    • “Their AIM app cloud hit a record 360 million users… I'm not selling.” — Dan Nathan (25:54)

• Valuations Still Attractive:

  • Panel noted BABA’s much lower valuation compared to Amazon and its massive cash reserves.

• Emerging Markets Narrative:

  • Lower inflation and growing tech play in EM could sustain the rally, but a US recession would reverse fortunes quickly.

• Strategic Shifts:

  • Julie Beal pointed to China’s adaptation to Trump-era tariffs and improved supply chain diversification as supportive.

7. FICO’s Disruptive Mortgage Move

• Fair Isaac (FICO):

  • Rocketed higher after announcing direct-to-lender FICO score pricing, bypassing credit bureaus.
    • “We're going to cut out the credit bureaus… as a result, the FICO score will be cheaper.” — Julie Beal (30:42)

• Questionable Impact:

  • Julie doubted whether this would meaningfully change mortgage costs or bureau competition and called it mostly about optics.

8. Energy Sector & Oil Outlook

• WTI at 4-Month Lows:

  • Halima Croft (RBC) explained that OPEC’s expected output increases, US supply growth, and the politics of oil are in focus.
    • “Market participants are very focused on a potential oversupply story… US production growth, non OPEC growth…” — Halima Croft (34:05)

• Trump/Saudi Dynamics:

  • The “pump for Trump” theory: Saudis say their oil moves are for the market, not the administration, but political quid pro quo has delivered US policy concessions for Saudi support.
    • “They are not pumping to please President Trump… but again, the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia seems to be on strong footing.” — Halima Croft (35:35)

• Refiner Bonanza:

  • High crack spreads support refinery profits, but long-term energy uncertainty remains due to policy and transition risks.

9. Government Equity Stakes in Private Industry

• White House Strategy:

  • The administration is executing a new strategy: taking equity or revenue stakes in companies receiving US support, loans, or government-controlled resources.
    • “The president is focused on… how can we make our country wealthy and rich again?” — White House official (41:07)

• Potential for More Sectors:

  • As many as 30 industries could be affected—anywhere the government has leverage (licenses, resources, etc.).

• Panel Reaction:

  • Dan Nathan flagged nationalization risk, but said for select companies, the government partnership could be positive, unlike historic state ownership scenarios.

10. Other Notable Segments

• Boeing 777X Delay:
  • The new jet’s delivery pushed to 2027; panel worried about the company’s reputation and execution risk.
    • “I worry a lot that this company really is writing a lot of checks it can't cash.” — Julie Beal (44:44)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Market’s Tone:

  • “Valuations be damned… The chase is on. People behind the eight ball have to put money to work.” — Guy Adami (02:37)

• On the “FOMO Effect:”

  • “It feels like FOMO and it feels like FOMO in anything digital…” — Dan Nathan (04:20)

• On AI Craze Risk:

  • “People are just assuming if it has the AI it's going to be quality. And I'm not sure that's going to be the case.” — Julie Beal (07:06)

• On Fed Complacency:

  • “This market is fully pricing in... the Fed will just gradually cut rates at every meeting from here on out… This just simply isn’t sustainable.” — Tim Seymour (12:11)

• On Alibaba’s “Catch Up” Rally:

  • “Chinese stocks have been so under owned for so long… Alibaba is at least that region’s representation of cloud.” — Dan Nathan (25:54)

• On US Government Equity Stakes:

  • "The administration is looking at this… as deal making terms, the opportunity to make more money... any company where the administration has leverage." — Eamon Jabers (41:13/41:28)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:03 — Show opens: Market momentum highlights
• 02:37 — Guy Adami’s take on surprising market strength
• 04:20 — FOMO and private tech valuations, OpenAI
• 07:06 — Julie Beal’s warning on “AI = quality” fallacy
• 09:06 — CD vs. equities: allocation debate
• 11:09 — Tim Seymour warns on tech multiples (with guest Megan Horneman)
• 16:21 — Phil LeBeau on Tesla’s deliveries
• 22:10 — Emily Wilkins on federal green funding cuts
• 25:54 — Alibaba rally, cloud, and emerging markets
• 30:42 — FICO’s new pricing disrupts credit bureaus
• 34:05 — Halima Croft on oil supply and OPEC
• 35:35 — US/Saudi oil relations and Trump’s policy gains
• 41:07 — Eamon Jabers on government taking equity/revenue stakes
• 44:44 — Boeing’s 777X delays—panel concerns

Final Trades

• Julie Beal: TransUnion—believes FICO drama is overblown
• Dan Nathan: Coinbase—sticking with the digital “FOMO” trade
• Mike Khouw: Maple Bear, more room to run
• Guy Adami: Lululemon—“I love their underwear”

Conclusion

This jam-packed episode captures the tension between sustained market momentum and rising worries about overvaluation and crowded trades, with a particular focus on tech, digital assets, and the coming end-of-year “chase.” The panel is divided between those warning of looming risks (overextended tech, policy shifts) and those embracing the FOMO-fueled rally. Key sector shifts (semis, energy, Chinese tech) and major policy moves (Fed, government investor activism) are discussed with both skepticism and recognition of opportunity for nimble investors.