CNBC's "Fast Money" Summary: Market Sell-Off Intensifies… And The Tech Wreck’s Next Move (March 10, 2025)

Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Carter Braxton, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Julie Beal
Guest: Mark Mahaney, Head of Internet Research at Evercore ISI
Location: Studio B, NASDAQ Market Site, Times Square
Release Date: March 10, 2025

1. Market Overview: A Day of Significant Declines

The episode kicks off with a sobering update on the stock market, highlighting an intense sell-off that has sent major indices plummeting to their lowest levels in nearly six months.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down nearly 2,000 points this month, marking its worst performance since December.
• S&P 500: Closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 16 months, down about 3%.
• NASDAQ: Suffered the steepest losses, declining nearly 5%, marking the worst day for technology stocks since 2020.

Melissa Lee sets the stage by noting that all MAG7 stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) are now in correction territory, collectively losing $750 billion in value over the last two trading sessions.

Notable Quote:

Melissa Lee [00:31]: "The NASDAQ is now solidly in correction territory. The S&P 500 closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 16 months."

2. Analyzing the Market Sell-Off

The panel delves into the reasons behind the abrupt downturn, discussing persistent headwinds that the market had previously overlooked.

• Dan Nathan [02:55]: Emphasizes that despite rising market highs, underlying issues like tariffs and recession fears were deteriorating, leaving the market with “less room for error.”

• Carter Braxton [03:51]: Provides historical context, noting that the current drawdown is 9.5% from the peak over 13 sessions, comparing it to past declines since 1927. He suggests that the stability is questionable, implying "there's more to come."

• Julie Beal [04:37]: Attributes part of the sell-off to shifts in Trump-era trade policies, highlighting how initial tax cuts boosted the market, but subsequent trade wars and rising rates have spooked investors.

Notable Quotes:

Dan Nathan [02:55]: "When you're trading at the valuations that we're trading at, everything continue has to continue to go right. And it's not in terms of the downside."

Carter Braxton [03:51]: "I would go with the latter. There's more to come."

3. Company Spotlight: Delta Airlines and Oracle

The discussion transitions to specific companies experiencing significant impacts from the broader market movements.

Delta Airlines:

• Guidance Cut: Delta has significantly reduced its Q1 earnings expectations, cutting earnings per share from $0.70-$1.00 to $0.30-$0.50, and lowering revenue growth from 7-9% to 3-4%.

• Impact: Shares have plunged between 4.5% to over 11% following the guidance cut. Executives from other airlines (American, Southwest, United) are expected to address similar concerns at the JP Morgan Industrials Conference.

Oracle:

• Earnings Report: Despite a slight miss on top and bottom lines, Oracle’s shares are recovering post-earnings call, buoyed by optimistic projections.

• Future Outlook: CEO Safra Katz projects a 15% increase in total revenue for the next fiscal year, surpassing analyst expectations of 13%. Larry Ellison highlighted robust demand for AI inferencing and plans to double data center capacity.

Notable Quotes:

Guy Adami [19:18]: "Oracle's huge $130 billion sales backlog will help drive a 15% increase in Oracle's total revenue in the next fiscal year."

Carter Braxton [19:55]: "Consumers in a discretionary business do not like uncertainty."

4. Technical Analysis and Investment Strategies

The panel explores technical indicators and potential investment opportunities amidst the ongoing volatility.

Stuart Kaiser [11:23]:

• Advises against "buying the dip" at this stage, citing "position destruction" in popular growth stocks.
• Key Point: Until there's stability in the market's pressured sectors, cautious investment is recommended.

Mark Mahaney (Guest) [32:36]:

• Focus on Amazon: Marks Amazon as a top pick due to its current valuation and resilience despite the sell-off.
• Valuation Metrics: Suggests Amazon is trading at 25x earnings, its cheapest ever, presenting a potential buying opportunity unless significant negative earnings revisions occur.

Guy Adami [33:25]:

• Advocates for disciplined investing, highlighting "dislocated high-quality companies" like Amazon and Uber as prime candidates for investment during the correction.

Carter Braxton [39:49]:

• Recommends defensive stocks such as Bristol Myers and Verizon, which have shown relative strength and stability.

Notable Quotes:

Stuart Kaiser [11:23]: "Until you see some stability in that part of the market, I wouldn't confidently want to step in and buy the here."

Mark Mahaney [32:36]: "I'd be waiting in here buying some of these names but I'd be very selective about it."

5. Future Outlook and Closing Insights

As the session wraps up, the panel discusses indicators to watch for signs of capitulation and potential market recovery.

VIX Index:

• Currently at its highest since August 2024, the VIX is a critical indicator of market fear.

• Dan Nathan [43:03]: Expects capitulation to manifest as the VIX trading above 33 and then closing lower, though it hasn't occurred yet.

Global Market Correlations:

• Carter Braxton [43:55]: Stresses that strong global markets like the DAX would need to align with US trends for a sustained recovery, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global equities.

Investment Opportunities:

• Defensive sectors and undervalued stocks within MAG7 are highlighted as potential buys amidst the downturn.

Notable Quotes:

Dan Nathan [43:03]: "Capitulation for me, it'll come in the form of the VIX trading up above 33 and then closing lower on the day."

Carter Braxton [44:12]: "If the United States is really going to have a further equity route that gathers pace and energy, you cannot have big forces like the DAX just going higher and higher."

6. Notable Trades and Recommendations

Carter Braxton:

• Two-Fer Picks: Bristol Myers and Verizon, both defensive stocks with strong performance amidst the sell-off.

Julie Beal:

• Potential Buys: Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR, which have recently rebounded after significant declines.

Dan Nathan:

• General Motors: Mentions as a potential trade, highlighting the fluctuating nature of market opportunities.

Guy Adami:

• Top Picks: Amazon and Uber, emphasizing their current dislocation and attractive valuations.

Stuart Kaiser:

• Risk Sectors: Banks and power generation stocks are areas to watch due to their sensitivity to economic downturns.

Notable Quote:

Carter Braxton [45:30]: "A two for Bristol Myer and Verizon."

Julie Beal [45:33]: "Apollo and Blackstone very soon at an interesting price level."

7. Final Thoughts

The episode concludes with a consensus that while the market is experiencing significant turbulence, discerning investors can find opportunities in undervalued and defensive sectors. The emphasis remains on cautious investment, monitoring key indicators like the VIX, and staying informed about global market movements.

Final Note:

Melissa Lee [45:50]: "Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow."

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect those of CNBC, NBCUniversal, or their affiliates. This summary is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.