← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Market Sell-Off Intensifies… And The Tech Wreck’s Next Move 3/10/25
00:43:49
Stocks dropping hard to kick off the week, as recession fears grip Wall Street. The sectors seeing the most pain, and what our traders need to see to believe the sell off is nearing an end. Plus Tech taking it on the chin, as the Nasdaq falls even farther into correction territory. What one top tech analyst sees in store for the Magnificent 7 names, and how much more turmoil the tech trade will endure. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
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Guy Adami
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Melissa Lee
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Guy Adami
Can get out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard to have some fun with our money.
- [00:16]
Carter Braxton
Like treating yourself to something special or.
- [00:18]
Guy Adami
Spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one?
- [00:21]
Carter Braxton
So use Empower and get good at.
- [00:23]
Guy Adami
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- [00:25]
Carter Braxton
Join their 19 million customers today@empower.com not an empowered client, paid or sponsored.
- [00:32]
Melissa Lee
What if your limited inventory had unlimited potential? What if your biggest risk was not taking one? What if you could make every move matter? Bank of America's business solutions can help bring your biggest what ifs within reach. Find out how our digital tools, cutting edge insights and trusted expertise can work for your business. What would you like the power to do? Visit bankofamerica.com bankingforbusiness to learn more. Bank of America is proud to be the official bank sponsor of FIFA World Cup 2026. Live in the NASDAQ markets out on a day where the major indices hit their lowest levels in nearly six months. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Stocks sinking to start the week. The NASDAQ now solidly in correction territory. The S&P 500 closing below its 200 day moving average for the first time in 16 months. The Dow shedding nearly 2000 points so far this month. How much furthers are left to fall? And how do you protect yourself against the drop? Plus Delta's disappointing guidance. What's got the stock on the move after hours and how it' playing out for the rest of the travel trade. And we're watching Oracle shares after its latest earnings report. Crypto crashing as Bitcoin's drop below 80k takes the rest of the digital asset space down with it. And the Charmaster lays out a couple of stocks that might be buying opportunities after this sell off. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Carter Braxton, Worth, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Julie Beal. We start off with a sea of red on Wall Street. The dow dropping nearly 900 points for its worst day since December. The S&P 500 down nearly 3%, hitting levels not seen since back in September. And the Nasdaq the worst performing index today, down nearly 5% at Lowe's, the worst day for tech since the fall of 2020. Two continued fears about a potential recession and the uncertainty around tariffs weighing on the markets. It was a day filled with massive moves in the mega caps. Apple losing $175 billion in market cap today. Tesla giving back all of its post election gains on its worst day since 2020. It is now worth less than half of what it was at its mid December peak. Nvidia hitting its lowest level since September, losing a trillion dollars from its high. And Meta giving up all of its gains and then some from that 20 day winning streak. Overall, every single MAG7 stock is now in correction territory. Collectively, they have lost three quarters of a trillion dollars in value in just the last two trading sessions. So what do we do here, Guy?
- [02:56]
Dan Nathan
Superlatives are continue. I mean it's fascinating what we've said for a while now, incorrect, at least for me, incorrectly has been that there are a lot of headwinds out there, but the market was looking past them for whatever reasons. But despite the fact that the market seemingly made new highs every day, those headwinds weren't going away. As a matter of fact, some of the concerns were actually getting worse. And what we said was the market will have less and less room for error and volatility was going to be a story. Well, you're seeing that now. I don't know if it was tariffs, I don't know. It's a fear of a slowdown. But it just goes to show you when you're trading at the valuations that we're trading at, everything continue has to continue to go right. And it's not in terms of the downside. It feels to me like we didn't have capitulation today. People say it was panicked. I didn't see anything panicky about it. Yes, the VIX is elevated, it will stay elevated. Panic will come in the form of a huge volume day where we may be flush early and spend the rest of the day rallying. That did not happen today.
- [03:51]
Melissa Lee
What do you think?
- [03:52]
Carter Braxton
Well, I mean, maybe just put it all in context rather than my opinion or anyone's. We know that the market has drawdown, sell offs, drops, declines, corrections, you choose your nomenclature. As of now we are down nine and a half percent from the peak and it's lasted 13 sessions. If you look at all instances going back to 1927 where the S&P is had a 5% plus decline. The average client is about 11 and a quarter, the median is about 8 and 3 quarters and it takes place over 30 sessions on average. So this is sort of normative now at the index level, we know the market's down, what, four and a half percent for the year, but the average stock is still up, and more stocks, the S and P, are up than down. Which would get around to say, is this nothing and nothing's happened or there's that much more to come? I would go with the latter. There's more to come.
- [04:37]
Julie Beal
Yeah. I would just say that, you know, the Trump trades, they started to reverse a while ago, and it started in. Around the time that we started dialing up the, you know, the rhetoric in and around the trade war. And one of the things that kind of strikes me, and we talked about this a lot, that the first Trump administration seemed to be very focused on the stock market. When you think about how they went about some of the economic agenda that they wanted in the first one, they went after tax cuts first, and they got tax cuts, and it juiced the stock market, it juiced the economy. Then they got into the trade war, which really didn't cause too much trepidation in markets, not until we got to the end of 2018, when we had a growth scare, when we also had rates going higher. So if you think about what they did now, it's a bit of an own goal. For all intents and purposes, no one knew how this was going to play out. I don't think they thought it was going to play out. I hear a lot of people talking about, well, they wanted to tank the economy, they wanted to tank the stock market to get things going higher. There's no way that is true. I keep hearing that, and it's probably what you just pointed to yourself.
- [05:34]
Melissa Lee
No, I didn't. Guy is raising his hand. So I was just, oh, hi, Guy. Did you want to interject?
- [05:39]
Dan Nathan
I'm waiting for the camera person to show me raising my hand. He said, own goal. And you just didn't even. You don't know what that is. And until earlier today, I didn't know what it is.
- [05:49]
Melissa Lee
But you didn't know what that was.
- [05:50]
Dan Nathan
In, like, the Premier League football, if a defender were to kick the ball.
- [05:56]
Melissa Lee
Into soccer in this country net, okay.
- [05:58]
Dan Nathan
That'S an own goal. It's something like you've made. Made a mistake and it hurts your own team. Is that correct?
- [06:04]
Julie Beal
And it could be a header also. But I guess my point is when you think about what's going on here, you know, we've been talking about this for a couple of weeks. They're playing chicken with the US Economy, which means that they're playing chicken with the Global economy. And when you think about the potential for, you know, I guess the idea of weakening your northern neighbor or weakening the economy of your southern neighbor or weakening the comedy, the economy of Europe, it just doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense. So the market has gone down in front of that. Yields had gone down initially. Look at the way the dollar traded. So what's going on in the stock market? I would argue with Guy a little bit. I see a lot of panic in a lot of stocks that possibly overshot to the upside that were trading at valuations that nobody could really justify, except folks were willing to justify because of the expected growth or so. So to me, I think the S and P probably has a little more room to catch up. They tried to rally it at the. The day. It wasn't particularly that impressive. If you're looking at some of the names that led to the downside, they didn't really bounce.
- [07:00]
Dan Nathan
And we want to. You want to go to Julie, I get it. But I'm going to push back on Dan's pushback.
- [07:04]
Melissa Lee
And in terms of no panic or there is panic when.
- [07:07]
Dan Nathan
When stocks go up in levels that we've seen stocks go up the way they go. Nobody talks about panic. Then they say how the fundamentals are in place and the market is behaving properly and everything is fine. So we can see panic to the upside the same way you can see it to the downside. So I would submit I've seen panic to the upside where people feel like, oh, my God, I'm going to miss it. This didn't feel like. Not yet, at least to the downside.
- [07:31]
Melissa Lee
They call it something else. They call it fomo. And that's exactly what fueled the AI.
- [07:35]
Julie Beal
Listen, we saw this in Palantir. We saw it in APP level. We saw it in Bruno.
- [07:39]
Melissa Lee
There was a fundamental case for every single one there which was supposed to be sort of defensive, right?
- [07:46]
Julie Beal
Correct.
- [07:46]
Melissa Lee
The aas, Ben, was going to be intact, Julie, because it was going to bring massive efficiencies and cost savings and nobody wanted to be left out on. Here we are now with the. With the air coming out of this trade or gone. Maybe.
- [08:03]
Steve Grasso
There'S a very clear reason why no one likes a very narrow market.
- [08:07]
Julie Beal
Right.
- [08:08]
Steve Grasso
And it's exactly what's happening right now. You suddenly have a strong correction and it makes. Everyone started to look around and say, can this work without the strength of the AI companies that have been driving so much of the growth? And I. The real challenge is it could if the economy were in good shape. And to me that's a really debatable question because not only do we have just the little whisperings of challenges in the labor market, not only is manufacturing been really difficult, but now you have a lot of boardrooms, lots of CEOs that are feeling very uncertain and very unwilling to make bold capex plans, bold hiring plans, bold investment plans that really constrains what's going to happen in the economy. Right. It's not the loss of jobs that really, really paralyzes demand. It's people's fear of losing jobs. It's a much broader impact. And I think that's kind of what we're starting to see early on.
- [09:01]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, and it starts at the, I mean, the federal government level. I mean, imagine all the contractors and government employees who are concerned that their job is not going to be there tomorrow. And that's just the tip of the iceberg guy. I mean, Steve, Lisa was making an interesting point today about the economy and that is usually in a slowdown, you have the ballast of government spending to help the economy along. And this time they are doing just the opposite. They want to slash government spending happening, you know.
- [09:25]
Dan Nathan
Yes, that is correct. I didn't see that. But he's spot on. And I'll say this as well, you know, the health of the consumer and we hear it over and over again if you watch and it becomes sort of monotonous and it just becomes background noise at a certain point because everybody's convinced the consumer is in great shape. I am not convinced of that. And I'll say this, you know, when the consumer gets scared, it's typically they're scared because something happens in the market. Not to suggest that everybody owns stocks. Stocks, that's not it. But when they lead Tonight on the 6 o'clock evening news with big salt in the stock market, people take notice and they start having the conversations, should I buy that coffee? Should I go on that trip? And that's when spending stops on a dime.
- [10:03]
Julie Beal
Yeah. The other thing about the policy stuff, if this is really what caused the acceleration of the downside over the last couple of weeks or so, it's like we saw this last, well, I guess over the last month or so, threats of tariffs. You put the tariffs in, then you pull them back, then you get the stock market down, let's say it's down 15% a week, week and a half. Then you basically say, you know, marketing, you know, it's just not a good way to message about an economy. To guys point, that's kind of already on the brink of slowdown. And you know, this also brings me back to 2019. You know, we had this big snapback after the big Q4 drop. I think it was about 20% or so. The Fed had to pivot. Right. And I keep hearing if the tools in their toolbox don't work in a stagflation area environment, at least that's what a lot of economists are strategists saying is like this is the exact wrong time to mess around with an economy that's already starting to weaken, which is what happened in 2019, which is probably why when we actually had a black swan event. We've never had a black swan event, at least as long as I've been in the markets. Why we dropped so quickly because again, the Fed did lower interest rates to zero. We did have fiscal spending, but it didn't matter until people came to their senses a little bit after about a month or so.
- [11:11]
Melissa Lee
Well said. He's out with a new note telling investors to stay hedged and be patient. Stuart Kaiser is behind the call. He's the firm's head of equity trading strategy. You must have been busy today. What were the incoming calls like?
- [11:23]
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah, you know, I think it's a lot of, a lot of we all discussed, you know, the positive, I guess, or people are trying to ask is, is, is it time to buy the dip? So I think that means, you know, you know, to point, you pull back enough where people are kind of answering that question. Our view is, no, it is not time to buy that dip. Mostly because this has been has been about the economy. It has been about Trump policy. But in the end, what's really impacted the market is just position destruction. And the stocks that are under pressure are the popular longs, the winners from the last 12 to 18 to 24 months. And those stocks were down more than and today in our measure, they're down over 20% in the last month. And until you see some stability in that part of the market, I wouldn't confidently want to step in and buy the here.
- [12:01]
Julie Beal
You know, when you think about again, the safety trades as you were talking about, a lot of folks felt really comfortable in the Mag 7. They felt really comfortable in the banks. You know, some of the flows that you're seeing going back to what Mel just asked you, what seems a little, I don't know, I was going to say scary. I don't mean that. But like, if you think there's lower lows to happen, what do you think leads to the Downside here is it like financials? Because to me I'd be more worried about that at some point. This mag 7 sec, you know, secular shift, as far as, you know, general, that'll get back on its horse. It needed some froth to come out of it. But the banks kind of worry me here.
- [12:33]
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah, I think, I think the banks and then the power generation story or two that we've got like a close eye on because those are not retail trades. You know, to your point, eventually retail is going to want to own Apple or Matter or Tesla at levels that are 20, in Tesla's case, 50%, you know, below peak. But the banks and power gen, those utilities, I think those are clear institutional trade rates. So I think one day last week we saw the banks down about 3%. Definitely got our attention. A couple of the popular utilities were down double digits last week as well. So I agree. Banks and power gender too. From an institutional perspective, I keep an eye on it. Again, they have not shown the stability in our view that you need to be confident to put capital at risk.
- [13:08]
Carter Braxton
Right now, Stuart, at the institutional level, of course, the individual has choice, free will. You can sell, you can buy long short. But the big long only fully invested all time, not a lot, whole cash. That, that's, that's the game. And they're playing from the same place as always. The S and P Pure Value Index since the market's peak on the 19th is down 1.2 where the pure growth is down almost 12,1100 basis points of spread for those who have to play. What are you saying or recommending in this environment?
- [13:34]
Stuart Kaiser
Look, I think the growth value also has a lot to do about positioning, also about what's going on in interest rates. I would say I think long always have two concerns. Number one is if you look at late January, early February, you got that really bad University of Michigan sentiment print that kicked off three out of four weeks with net outflows from ETFs and passive mutual funds. So to your point, long only has to hold, but they've also seen some money being pulled out, which means they've had to contribute as well. Generally speaking, I'd rather be in growth than value here. Logic being that you have three broad outcomes. You have a hard landing. I think growth outperforms value in a hard landing. Higher for longer. I think growth probably outperforms in a higher for longer environment. You really need this immaculate sort of reacceleration in the economy to get small cap and value working. So just in our view I probably probability adjusted you're more likely to be happy in growth and value. But to your point, it has not worked year to date. And I wouldn't blame people for being skeptical, Stuart.
- [14:26]
Dan Nathan
I'm sure that people sitting around saying you know what, the market sells off enough, the Fed is going to bail us out like they have over the last 20 or so years, which maybe they will. I don't have a view but what I will say is we have CPI on Wednesday and if that were to come in hotter than expected, it backs them into a corner that they're already in. So maybe speak to the importance of the number this Wednesday.
- [14:44]
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah, I agree with you 100%. I mean we talked about earlier in the year. The risk for the Fed is that, you know, if you are cutting government spending at the same time you're introducing tariffs, you create create pressure for the Fed on both sides of the dual mandate. So the number is very important. If you remember back to early February, you had had umich inflation expectations. It ticked up. Average hourly earnings had ticked up and that made that inflation print really, really powerful. We got past that. Okay, so the federal be watching this. They've been very methodical I think about communicating that you know, inflation risk is not a near term concern. So I think you need a pretty hot print especially after average hourly earnings got revised down. That said options markets pricing, you know, 1.4% move on CPI markets. Telling you it's important to your point for the Fed is important so it matters. Oddly, and I may never say this again in my career, I think you miss might be more important than the CPI this week though.
- [15:34]
Melissa Lee
Are there any levels on the S&P 500 that are sort of witching levels in your view? Whether it be levels that you're watching, levels that hedge funds are watching, levels of CTAs are, are exposed to.
- [15:44]
Stuart Kaiser
Look at me, CTAs are max short across all the US benchmarks right now, which actually to some degree you might read as a positive sign that systematic supply has come in. Again, I wouldn't put a number on the level at this point. To me it's show me those core long positions that are just getting eviscerated. Show me that those have stabilized. And regardless of the level, I think I'd be more positive about kind of reentering the market. I'm sure the big round numbers will matter. I'm sure there's a technical support level already through the 200 day. That was obviously a big level which we defeated already. So not a Level in particular, but more it's what is on internal to the market. Do these momentum trades, these tech trades, these sort of hedge fund favorites find their footing or not.
- [16:20]
Melissa Lee
Stuart, great to see you. Thank you. Stuart Kaiser of Citi Water Levels. You're watching Carter, Mr. Technician.
- [16:25]
Carter Braxton
Yeah, well, I mean the truth is there are no levels of support to speak of.
- [16:30]
Melissa Lee
There are no levels?
- [16:31]
Carter Braxton
No, no. Support is where a lot of transaction took place. Then you move well above it and you come back to it. We've just been ascending. And so as you roll in principle, there's no great level to identify. But on a day to day basis and you see that intraday, there's always this desire to, hey, maybe it's overdone and we rally off the low. The net effect is again, remember the average stock, the performance of all S&P 500 stocks is still up on the year and so is the median. And the aggregate itself is down only four and a half. Not much has happened.
- [17:01]
Melissa Lee
Right. How are you feeling? I mean for him to say just wait.
- [17:05]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, well we're going to talk about later like signs that maybe you've seen capitulation. So I don't want to get ahead of that. But I'll say, you know, it doesn't feel like it's happened yet. And people say, what are you talking about? The market has been selling off and I mean people aren't used to, they're not, they've. The complacency that's been around, the investing in the trading community is such. It's made a lot of sense. You've been rewarded to be complacent. But I've said for a while now it's seemingly starting to be correct, that volatility is going to be a thing this year that people have not experienced. It's been a one day event until recently. Now we're two weeks into this and I still think it goes higher from here.
- [17:39]
Julie Beal
Yeah. So if we look at the NASDAQ 100, which is interesting to me because headed into the bear market of 2022, no one knew it was going to be a bear market, let's be really clear. But once we were really in a very systematic sort of sell off period, you know, to me I kept on hearing that the prior leaders of the bull market weren't going to be the leaders on the way out. The way that the indices are constructed, there's really no other way to do that. So I'm in the same mindset right now. And if you look at the Q. Q. Q. You know, to me we had it down 38% at its lows in 2022. Right now it's down what, 11 12% or something like that. But a lot of the major components are down a lot more, which speaks to what Carter just said. There's plenty of stocks that are acting okay, but you're taking the froth out of the market. I think the QQQ is the way to play on a sustained sell off. You just keep dollar cost averaging it in in two years. You'll be pretty happy about that because we haven't had a projected bear market since 25 years ago. And I just don't see it likely to happen when you consider the names that have been leading the economy as far as Capex and investment and the ones who are basically concentrated in the majority indices.
- [18:42]
Carter Braxton
Also, if you put in the context, of course nothing's happened to the downside around the world. The Stoxx 600 is up on the air, the Dax is up. And so if you saw true panic, you'll start to see it happening in things that have held out. I mean the correlation between the MSCI All Country World Index and the All country world index, the US is about 85%. So you're not going to have a situation where the S and p stops dropping 15, 20 and the rest of it's just going up at some point they succumb to that would be something to watch for for all right.
- [19:10]
Melissa Lee
Meantime, shares of Delta sinking after the airline slashed its Q1 guidance or filiboe just spoke with CEO Ed Bastian in the last hour. He joins us with more on this. Phil.
- [19:18]
Guy Adami
Melissa, this is guidance for the first quarter where Delta has brought down its expectations and brought them down substantially but they are not changing their full year earnings guidance. So for the first quarter here's the new guidance. Earning 30 to 50 cents a share, previously expected to earn between 70 and a dollar. So they've cut it basically in half. Revenue up 3 to 4%. Previously expected it to grow 7 to 9% operating margin 4 to 5% versus the previous guidance of 6 to 8%. Essentially they're seeing softness in domestic demand. Here is CEO Ed Bastian.
- [19:55]
Carter Braxton
We saw companies start to pull back in terms of corporate spending started to stall, consumer spending started to stall largely domestic, largely in the close in. But it was also exacerbated, as you.
- [20:07]
Stuart Kaiser
Know, the uncertainty that's out there.
- [20:08]
Carter Braxton
And consumers in a discretionary business do not like uncertainty. And while we do believe this will be a period of time that we Pass through. It is also something that we need.
- [20:19]
Stuart Kaiser
To need to understand and get to calmer waters.
- [20:22]
Guy Adami
We asked Ed Bastian if there are industries where they're noticing particular weakness. He's pointed out aerospace and defense, automotive, entertainment, they have a big hub out in Southern California. So clearly they've had a lot of pressure out there, not just because of that, but they also had wildfires out there. Bottom line is this, they are seeing weakness in the first quarter. But Melissa, what's interesting is that we're also noticing all of the airline stocks under pressure today. Down anywhere between essentially 4.5 to more than almost 11% for United Airlines. And tomorrow the CEOs of American, Southwest, United, they will all be giving presentations in New York City at the JP Morgan Industrials conference. You can bet the number one question that the analysts are going to have is what are you seeing in terms of the economy right now and what do you expect to see for the remainder of this year?
- [21:16]
Melissa Lee
Phil? Thank you, Phil LeBeau. And of course this after hours slide is a continuation of the slide that we've already seen with the markets going down Overall, Julie, there are real questions about whether or not people take cruises or book, you know, hotels and airplane tickets, etc.
- [21:32]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I think it's really an indication that when you have this level of uncertainty, kinds of future planning like trips and things suddenly gets really put on hold. And you know, we all learn that we can do a lot of our business online via Zoom and I think there's a real recognition by a lot of companies, hey, let's just, let's just pump the brakes because we're really not sure what the world looks like and let's conserve a little bit of cash and that's fine for that company that really preserves its, its earnings power. The problem is, is that just ripples through the rest of the economy and long term impacts on business confidence and just the willingness to put capital out. And I just, I worry a lot because that becomes a little bit of its own self fulfilling prophecy. And that's the real risk that I think we have in front of us.
- [22:18]
Melissa Lee
It's interesting to think that consumer confidence has turned that dramatically in, you know, since the last earnings report that Delta gave.
- [22:26]
Dan Nathan
Right. And what's even more interesting, it did that with the market, market basically being at an all time high and only starting to roll over over the last couple of weeks. So now let's see where it is. And you know, this guidance, I mean basically it cut first quarter guidance in terms of revenue and eps in half. And if Tim was here, he's not the ambassador would talk about correctly how airlines are the greatest trading names out there. And you think about this was a$70 stock a few weeks ago. It's going to trade right now at 43. I think the August 5th low is 38. Tomorrow could be a capitulation day in Delta Airlines. If it trades 10 times, you know, 75, 80 million shares, you take a shot on the long side.
- [23:03]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [23:03]
Julie Beal
I'll just say this and you know this is a business that we've chosen Guy. And you know I've been doing this for decades now. You obviously multiple more decades than me. This is just stupid. Like the fact that a stock or a group like this could go up at least 100%. United went up 200% from the summer lows. Those and these companies were giving guidance. There's no way this guidance turned on a dime over the last couple of weeks. Okay. And to have a cut like that, that warranted a pre announcement. Now I'm not telling you that that makes it any less likely to have the sorts of gaps that it did. But you know, investors have to bear some of the responsibility for a market like this because if you're willing to bid up a stock like this because you think it's growing to the sky or rcl put the cruise lines in there because of some narrative about a consumer and an economy that's infl. Anything, well then shame on you because and I don't mean to sound like so nasty about it, but like to have this stock down like this, it's retraced the entire move or so and I just think it's a bit goofy.
- [24:04]
Carter Braxton
I mean if you look at those that have been hurt the most, this is certainly in that category down 30, 31%. They all have a common precondition. They were the biggest performers. Right. So that what does Colbert Kravis have to do with Delta have to do with Calmine Cal Maine eggs? The ones that have been hurt the most were the ones that were the most loved, most believed in and now are the most sort sort of run away from. And there are plenty of others that haven't had real selling. The presumption is there's more to come coming up.
- [24:31]
Melissa Lee
We'll have much more in today's market sell off including a top tech analyst thought on the megacap meltdown where the Chartmaster sees support and where traders are looking for signs of relief. All that ahead but first some after hours action. Shares of Oracle recouping the day's losses after earnings, the details in the numbers from the quarter. Next, all that when Fast Money returns. Hello, I'm Laura Castleton with Janice Henderson Investors. Is a brighter future possible? At Janice Henderson we think it is. We work to help our clients achieve superior financial outcomes and fulfill our purpose of investing in a brighter future. Together. We never forget that this means our thinking and our investments are helping to.
- [25:14]
Steve Grasso
Shape millions of future.
- [25:16]
Melissa Lee
At Janice Henderson, we are committed to helping you invest in a brighter future. To learn more, go to Janashenderson.com.
- [25:26]
Julie Beal
This.
- [25:27]
Melissa Lee
Is a message from sponsor Intuit TurboTax Taxes was getting frustrated by your forms. Now Taxes is uploading your forms with a Snap and a TurboTax expert will do your taxes for you. One who's backed by the latest tech which cross checks millions of data points for absolute accuracy. All of which makes it easy for you to get the most money back guaranteed. Get an Expert now on TurboTax.com, only available with TurboTax Live full service. See guaranteed details@turbotax.com guarantees for 140 years MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org welcome back to Fast Money Earnings Alert here on Oracle Shares moving higher despite a miss on the top and the bottom lines A conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. Sim Modi's got the details. Hey Sima. Melissa on the call executives from Oracle reassuring providing reassuring comments on the trajectory of its cloud business. CEO Safra Katz saying Oracle's huge $130 billion sales backlog backlog will help drive a 15% increase in Oracle's total revenue in the next fiscal year. Analysts were expecting about 13% growth. That coincides with comments from Larry Ellison who put concerns of a slowdown to bed, adding that Oracle is seeing enormous demand for AI inferencing with plans to double its data center capacity in the calendar year. Now that is significant because Oracle did get caught up in the most latest deep sea induced sell off last month on concerns that cheaper AI models would result in less demand for cloud storage, storage and data centers, a business that Oracle has been rapidly growing into in the quarter. Oracle's cloud services business A slight miss there, but we're still seeing shares move higher here on the bullish commentary provided by Oracle on the Call. Shares still down about 20% from its most recent high. Melissa, any mention yet of Stargate? Sima, you know no mention of Stargate just yet. I'll keep you updated on what Ellison and Cass have to say about the return on investment of that map massive project they unveiled late January alongside Softbank and Open Air. Plus what the company has to say about its agreement with TikTok with that deadline approaching. All right, Seema, thank you. Sima Modi on Oracle. Higher bucking the trend here, guy.
- [27:51]
Dan Nathan
Well you go back to July of last year I think was July 3rd. The stock made an all time high about 145ish and then cascaded lower into August like everything else did. Look at where we just traded down to and stopped. Basically 145 5, you know, 11 and a half percent earnings growth 20 times, 21 times next year's numbers. I think actually it's a reasonable name and it has sold off from this prior high we saw a month and a half two months ago. So if you're looking for value, I think Oracle provides it.
- [28:16]
Melissa Lee
I mean IGV overall has gotten crushed and this one really stands out.
- [28:20]
Carter Braxton
I mean here too, this stock doubled the preceding years now just dropped 25% obviously indicated up a bit, but I think you fade strength.
- [28:27]
Julie Beal
Yeah, yeah. And just if they can pull the chart up and you know in January when they made that Stargate announcement, you remember the big gap and then it actually filled in the gap and came all the way back in. Obviously it's much lower than I think you fade this thing because if you are worried about these other Mag 7 stocks that are being punished right now because of a deceleration in growth but actually upside to their capex numbers, this stock fits right in there. And don't forget the moment that they made this announcement when Sam Altman and Larry Ellison and a missing. Who is the third one? Yeah, Masa Son from Softbank was sitting there, you know, Elon Musk, Doge Boy tweeted out right away they don't have the money.
- [29:07]
Melissa Lee
Right. So even the administration, somebody in the administration.
- [29:10]
Julie Beal
Stargate is a big fugazi.
- [29:12]
Melissa Lee
All right, well we'll see what they have to say about that coming up. More on today's tech wreck. The Nasdaq now nearly 14% off its highs as a flight from risk assets. That continues where our next guest sees the tech trade heading from here. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. Back right after this. At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu Tomorrow, Delaware Governor Matt Meyer the.
- [30:01]
Stuart Kaiser
Strategy to keep Delaware America's incorporation king.
- [30:04]
Julie Beal
Plus how changes in Washington are impacting his state.
- [30:08]
Stuart Kaiser
Stay ahead of the market squawk box.
- [30:10]
Julie Beal
Tomorrow, 6:00am Eastern, CNBC.
- [30:17]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Another check on today's market drop. The Dow tumbling near the S and p down almost 3%. The tech heavy Nasdaq leading the losses down about 4%. Just a few minutes ago, a White House official commenting on the sell off saying we, quote, want to emphasize that we are seeing a strong divergence between animal spirits of the stock market and what we are actually seeing unfold from businesses and business leaders. And the latter is obviously more meaningful than the former. On what is in store for the economy in the medium to long term term. The energy stocks meantime, bucking today's big downturn, the XLE up almost a percent even as crude oil pulls back slightly. Nat gas hitting its highest level since December of 2022. And crypto taking on the chin, Bitcoin dropping below $78,000 to its lowest since early November. Ether and solana down about 10% apiece. But the comments from the White House really underscore the fact that if there was a belief that there was a Trump put out there there, it doesn't work for much lower. I mean it's not going to be activated.
- [31:18]
Julie Beal
I mean, listen, we just heard from Delta that which 100% refutes what they're just saying. Right. And so again, I suspect we're going to hear it from the banks in the not so distant future, especially the longer this goes. So, you know, that announcement or statement or whatever, I mean it's, you know.
- [31:33]
Melissa Lee
It'S not worth a whole lot coming out much more on today's market sell off. The Magic 7 getting trounced today. What is next for the big tech truck and how do you know when to get back in? We'll talk to a veteran tech analyst, Mark Mahaney right after this. Fast money's back in two. Welcome back to FAST money. Big Tech among the biggest losers in today's sell off. Every name in the so called Mag 7 now down 10% or more from their high together, the group has lost nearly two and a half trillion dollars in market capitalization this year. For more on the tech wreck, let's bring in Mark Mahaney, head of Internet research@evercore isi. Mark, great to have you with us. Melissa, what do you tell clients and how receptive are they to I think it's a buy rating. The long term fundamentals are great. I don't make calls for the next six months. I make calls for the next 12 months because if you had said that a couple months ago they'd be down now and it'd be pretty painful.
- [32:37]
Guy Adami
Well you stick with your discipline you always look for. What I love to look for is DHQ dislocated high quality companies we didn't have any at the beginning of this year except for Uber. Uber was our top pick I thought at 60 things way dislocated. I think you now may have another one which is Amazon. I particularly like Amazon with the sell off here we just bumped it up to be our number one pick. You want to be disciplined about where the stocks are. Look we had a two and a half year rally super rally rally in S&P 500 more so in Nasdaq even more so in the in the Internet large cap names that left very few kind of compelling valuation startups at the at the beginning of the year. But you know you continue with a correction like this you're going to find really interesting aggressive price points. So I'm sticking with my two most interesting price points Right here are you know are Uber and Amazon what is.
- [33:25]
Melissa Lee
The worst case scenario in your view in terms of valuation or any other metric for that matter for Amazon on in the case where a capex gets tailed curtailed or spend on air gets curtailed and there's a severe drop in consumer sentiment consumer confidence such that you know the retail portion of its business gets hit too.
- [33:45]
Guy Adami
Well I guess I would look at two things I'd look at where the multiple is versus where it's traded in the past and 25 times earnings is the cheapest you've ever had a shot at Amazon doesn't mean you're not it couldn't be cheaper than that. Look we've got if we get over and get overbought you can get oversold old. I'd be very surprised to see a name like Amazon trade down to 20 times earnings but it's possible that would have to be that the real ears that this consumer softness is going to cause negative revisions on to Amazon numbers for the year. I don't think that's the case not from everything that we've checked so far. Look most consumer almost all consumer demand trends when we looked at the most discretionary of the sectors I look at like travel I looked at retail I look at Advertising, Mobility, Delivery 3 those results were stronger going into 25 than they were going into 24. Maybe all this is inflected down in the last two weeks. I'd be a little surprised by that but it's possible. But, but barring major evidence that we're really going to have a negative earnings revisions I guess that's what the Melissa kind of trying to listen to the stocks a little bit. You know if, if Amazon trades below 25 then that's the market telling you that they think there's material negative revisions coming up. If you have belief that that's going to happen then you stay away from the stock stocks right now I don't believe that we're going to have negative revisions. So I'd be waiting in here buying some of these names but I'd be very selective about it. Start off with the ones that are most dislocated in my book that's Amazon. Then Uber.
- [35:09]
Dan Nathan
Mark Dan brings this up so I'll bring it up as well. You know everybody talks about Capex. Capex has been sort of the backbone of this. But you know, if you see a slowdown, I mean Capex is an etched in stone so if you just see people starting to pull back, how impactful could that be be?
- [35:24]
Guy Adami
Yeah, it'll be kind of an amplifier impact. So wait a second, your business is slow, you're accelerating your spend in, in CapEx. I think most of these companies, particularly the big three, I'll just stick with those Metta, Amazon and Google, you know have good R O A I data points. Data points that prove that their investments there's really some payoff. Google being able to say I love these two 25% data points. Google is telling you that 25% of their code now is being written by AI. That has some real interesting implications in terms of keeping headcount flat, going forwards. Amazon telling you that in its most advanced distribution centers they're seeing a 25% reduction in cost to serve that has dramatic implications for margins at Amazon going forward. So as long as you get these, those kind of data points, we're fine. But yeah, I would imagine if there's a dramatic downturn in end market demand, not just for a quarter or two but really have to be substantial potential then maybe you'd see these companies take down capex. I'd be very surprised to see that this year.
- [36:27]
Melissa Lee
How much more dislocation does Alphabet need in order to put it on that list of yours along with Uber as well as Amazon? Mark And I'm wondering, you know we just heard from the Delta CEO taking down Guidance. We're going to hear from a raft of the other airline CEOs over the coming days at this JP Morgan conference. And you've got to wonder, you know, Google has traditionally been a beneficiary of travel and travel advertising, etc. So how about the other side of that?
- [36:54]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I mean, these stocks are cyclical, there's no question about it. Amazon, Metta, Google, they're all cyclical. So if we're really starting to see a downtick in consumer demand, these companies would see that too. Google would see it in travel, retail, financial services. Those are Google's three big categories. You ask where I stand. Jacket. Actually, it's my third favorite stock. We just bumped it up to that level. I think there's so many overhangs on Google here. This is the one where the narrative could most change to the upside. I think 16 times earnings on market discount for Google. I mean, unless the DOJ really gets more aggressive than we think, and I think, you know, I think the DOJ risk is less now than it was six, six months ago. It just is. It's a fundamentally different. I think there's a much greater chance of a settlement now. Unless you really believe that ChatGPT is going to upend Google. Google, the survey work we do doesn't suggest that at all. Unless you believe they just got no cost discipline, which they may not, but I hope they do. I think there's a lot of upside. So it's my third favorite stock here.
- [37:53]
Melissa Lee
All right, Mark, always great to speak with you. Thanks for your time. Marc Evercore, Isi Julie Beale, what's on your shopping list of the Mag 7, if any?
- [38:03]
Steve Grasso
I kind of agree. I think Google for sure, the biggest challenge was the regulatory overhang. And I, I do think that at these levels, a market multiple really discounts what they have and the ability they have. To me, you have to resolve the question of whether AI and that kind of search is going to be an existential threat to their business or they can figure out how to replace a lot of that revenue. And I think that's probably a larger, more difficult question. But the one thing that I think I have for all of these Max 7 tech companies that are dependent on an AI kind of revenue stream is that I don't think it's going to be enough for the only thing that comes out of this AI benefit to just be efficiencies. Right. I don't think that companies are going to spend really. Enterprise is going to spend really aggressively just for efficiencies. And so in order to really make these large capex budgets that they have been, you know, expanding in order to justify that, that you really have to have more than just you're going to be more efficient. And that needs to be seen soon.
- [39:02]
Guy Adami
Soon.
- [39:03]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, stocks dropping sharply as recession fears take hold on Wall Street. What the charmaster sees in the technicals and the names that could shrug off the worries and potentially bounce higher from here, that is next when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Today's sell off pushing the S&P 500 to close below its 200 day moving average for the first time since November of 2023. The Nasdaq is now in correction territory, down over 10% from its recent high. So what's next for the market? Are there any opportunities to buy? Let's see what Carter is watching. Carter.
- [39:49]
Carter Braxton
All right, let's get to it. And we'll move quickly here. We'll write to the S and P and we have three identical charts. Charts. The first depicts of course this well defined channel that we've been ascending since the bear market low of 2022. Now to get to the midpoint of the channel, second chart, that would be a drawdown about 12 and a half percent. We're down 9 and a half now. That's nothing to get to the bottom. Next chart, that would be around 19, 20%. I think one has to sort of model for that and that is sort of garden variety. The nonsense of 20%, a bear market versus 19, not dispense with all that. But let's talk about some stocks that are acting well as the old time technical expression goes. Here's Bristol Myer, obviously very defensive up on the year up over the past 18, 20 sessions when the market is down. One way to annotate it a second way. Same chart, same company. But this annotation you can see what one wants to see, but it's bullish. Let's look at Verizon. This is also very defensive and, and we're seeing that of course in areas throughout the market. Low beta, cash rich if you will, high yield stocks with no growth. One way, second way to draw the charts for Verizon. And then let's go to two comparative charts just to make a point. So these are five year comparative charts and what you see here, of course there's the S and P way up there, up at 175% and there's actually identical performance. The two of them are both actually down a little bit in over the past five years. If you Take the same comparative chart, last chart, and freeze the S and P and hold it as a constant. That then depicts a relative performance a different way. They're so bombed out on a relative basis to the market having gone nowhere in five years. Markets up 175%. This is the kind of thing I think one wants to look for if one's trying to put money to work.
- [41:33]
Melissa Lee
Guy, do you like either of these two?
- [41:35]
Dan Nathan
Bristol Myers, we've talked about it for a while now. Obviously it's getting sort of of the tailwind of rotation into big cap Pharma, which I get. But this started long ago and if you go back and look, I mean this move we're seeing now is a 50% retracement of the prior all time high. I think a little north of, I want to say 80 bucks in this recent low that we just saw down below 40. So it makes sense, this move. But just on valuation alone, if you're looking for compelling cases, I mean Bristol Myers is about as good as it gets.
- [42:02]
Julie Beal
Yeah, I know Novo Nordisk was down a lot today, down nearly 10% on some trials. And you know, again, this pipeline as it relates to these diabetes and weight loss drugs, you know, is important. They got to keep up and you know, that's where I think a lot of competition. But this stock is really cheap on a PE to growth level and estimates have not come down meaningful, meaningfully for this year. So this one looks really interesting. Looks a little washed out down here.
- [42:24]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a red day on Wall Street. But will the carnage continue? What the traders need to see to believe the sell off is coming to an end. Go anywhere? Fast Money is back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Major averages all closing deep in the red today with the Dow down more than 1200 points at its lows. The VIX meantime, hitting its highest level since August 5th today. So Guy, you mentioned earlier that that was a level of fear that could indicate that selling may. Yeah, to an end.
- [43:03]
Julie Beal
Yeah.
- [43:04]
Dan Nathan
And you could start. Listen, first of all you should see countertrend rallies in with the VIX at these levels. So don't expect to see that. But if you're looking for capitulation for me, malls, it'll come in the form of the VIX trading up above 3,233 and then closing lower on the day. I think we're setting up for that type of day, but clearly we haven't seen it yet.
- [43:22]
Melissa Lee
Julie, how about you? You?
- [43:23]
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I always look for the, the contrary indication. Right. And so for me that actually happened in November, December, when the last economists were really bearish, started to capitulate to the upside. And so you need kind of a reversal just like that, where you're starting to see some economists taking down their forecasts because of the uncertainty. I'd like to see a little bit more of that before I get really enthusiastic.
- [43:46]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. And Carter, I don't know if this is what you're going to say, but I thought it was really interesting when you mentioned, mentioned before that the other pockets in the world that we're doing that are doing well, they need to roll over as well.
- [43:56]
Carter Braxton
Right. Because surely if the United States is really going to have a further equity route that gathers pace and energy and really draws in the fear, you cannot have, in principle, big forces like the DAX just going higher and higher. So it would be the joining in to the downside of those that have held out.
- [44:13]
Melissa Lee
So when somebody says, oh, well, the US Is doing so poorly because we had high valuations, et cetera, and Europe is spending, you know, Germany is spending a lot of money now and it's time to get into Europe, you say.
- [44:22]
Carter Braxton
Sure, and that's, that's work. But that's worked quite well for the past three, four months. But if you look at any major routing equities globally at any given time, correlations are high and you don't have real holdouts.
- [44:33]
Melissa Lee
Right. Dan, how about you? What are you looking for?
- [44:35]
Julie Beal
You know, I think financial stocks, so money centers and really what they have to say about the consumer. We just talked about what the White House said. We've talked about what Delta is saying. So if there is any weakness, weakening of the consumer the way see it, and then the flip side of that, more on an institutional basis, if I look at like a Apollo or a Blackstone or a kkr, these stocks really went up quickly after the election, but they started giving it up. They never confirmed the highs in the S and P which they were making, you know, right up until February. So these stocks getting washed out, they're all down about 30%. That'll be something interesting to me.
- [45:07]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades, final trade time. Julie Beal.
- [45:24]
Steve Grasso
You know, in turbulent times, I look for earnings stability. And Barrisk is a good example of that.
- [45:29]
Melissa Lee
Carter.
- [45:30]
Carter Braxton
A two for Bristol Myer and Verizon.
- [45:34]
Julie Beal
Daniel, am I in trouble? A two for. For Apollo and Blackstone very soon at an interesting price level guy.
- [45:42]
Melissa Lee
No twofer from me.
- [45:44]
Dan Nathan
Malms, what is that?
- [45:47]
Melissa Lee
Do you have a trade? Why are you looking behind you? Stop.
- [45:51]
Dan Nathan
General Motors was up today. Gm.
- [45:54]
Melissa Lee
Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniverse, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effect effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.